The Fix

That's the number of dollars -- in millions! -- that has been spent this year on ads by the outside interest groups advocating for and against President Barack Obama's health care plan, according to a comprehensive document detailing the air wars over the legislation.

As of this week, groups favoring the bill have spent $73.5 million on ads while those opposing the plan have dropped $75 million -- a stunningly large total that shows the massive political stakes tied to the legislation.

For much of the fall, the groups opposed to Obama's plan -- led by the Chamber of Commerce and the 60 Plus Association -- drastically outspent those supportive of the legislation.

In the first week of November, the opposition spent $12 million to just $2.5 million for the those who support the package. That margin narrowed to a $600,000 edge for the opposition in the second week and widened again to a $4.5 million advantage in the third week.

But, then, the Senate voted last weekend to bring the bill to the floor and the tables turned. For this week, the pro-Obama bill side is spending roughly $1 million more than those who oppose reform thanks to significant increases in spending by the AARP and Americans for Stable Quality Care.

Allies of the White House paint the shift in spending as a sign of momentum for the bill as Senate Majority Harry Reid (Nev.) prepares to introduce it in the coming week.

The increased spending by those backing the President's plan comes in the nick of time for those hoping to pressure lawmakers to back the plan. A Kaiser Family Foundation survey earlier this month showed that, for the first time since the health care debate began in earnest, people had seen more ads opposed to the legislation (37 percent) than in favor of it (29 percent).

Former Ambassador Tom Foley (R) issued a statement moments ago making clear that he is re-evaluating his candidacy for the U.S. Senate and may well jump into the now-open Connecticut governor's race.

"I have had a number of conversations with people who are encouraging me to consider running for Governor because they believe I could better serve Connecticut today as Governor than as a Senator," said Foley, adding that he will make an announcement on his plans next week.

Foley's statement today marks a significant reversal from the stance he took in an interview with the Fix late last week. At that time, Foley insisted he would not be switching races, adding: "I am involved in this race. I am committed to this race."

Foley along with former Rep. Rob Simmons and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon are running for the right to challenge embattled Sen. Chris Dodd (D) next fall. (Dodd's seat ranks as the most likely to switch party control next fall in our most recent Senate Line.)

A switch seems likely given Foley's current situation in the Senate race. When he first entered the contest he was the wealthy (and self financing) outsider who would draw a stark contrast with Simmons who has emerged as the establishment pick.

But, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon's decision over the summer to run made her the wealthier and even more outsider candidate in the field. (McMahon has already spent several millions of dollars on ads to introduce herself to the state's voters.)

Foley was caught in a political squeeze play -- caught between Simmons' poll lead and establishment support and McMahon's money. Assuming he plans to leave the race, it should help boost McMahon's candidacy -- consolidating the "outsider" vote behind her.

Given that chain of events, Gov. Jodi Rell 's (R) announcement that she would not seek re-election in 2010 amounted to a political lifeline for Foley.

No Republicans have entered the field to replace Rell yet although prominent former U.S Attorney Kevin O'Connor announced late last week that he would not run.

Foley's main advantage in a Republican primary would be his significant personal wealth. (He had donated $500,000 to his Senate race but informed observers believe he could easily make a seven figure donation.)

He also has strong ties to the Republican party establishment, having served as Ambassador to Ireland for the Bush Administration from 2006 to 2009. Foley also did a stint in Iraq in 2003 working for the Coalition Provisional Authority.

Should Foley leave the Senate race, he would be the second Republican candidate in as many weeks to do so. State Sen. Sam Caligiuri announced today that he would drop his Senate bid to pursue a run against Rep. Chris Murphy (D) in the 5th district.

Politicians publicly pooh-pooh polling -- the only poll that matters, after all, is on election day! -- but every elected official privately pays close attention to the tides of public opinion.

Which is why President Barack Obama's announcement next Tuesday on troop levels in Afghanistan is so fraught with political peril since a survey of recent national polls shows an American public deeply divided on what to do next in the country.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey showed 50 percent supportive of sending 34,000 more U.S. troops to the region -- a number that seems to have become cemented conventional wisdom in recent weeks -- while 49 percent oppose such a move.

The Washington Post/ABC News survey showed a similarly divided public. Forty six percent of those polled said that if Obama decides to send more troops into Afghanistan they wanted him to send a larger force to "fight Al Quaeda and the Taliban" as well as train Afghan troops while 45 percent favored a smaller force targeted solely at training the Afghan army.

And, a CBS News survey showed 32 percent of the sample supportive of increasing the number of troops in the country, 39 percent backing a troop decrease and 20 percent in favor of keeping the troop levels the same.

This is the divided nation that the President will address on Tuesday night. Choosing a primetime speech is a smart decision by his inner circle as it is clearly Obama's strongest medium -- allowing him to explain the stakes from both the micro and macro points of view while utilizing his natural oratorical abilities to make the case.

The problem for the president is that no matter what he says on Tuesday night there will be significant constituencies that will oppose it. The left has made clear that they believe a troop increase to be the exact wrong solution in Iraq, raising comparisons to Iraq and the idea of an unwinnable war. The right, on the other hand, has suggested that anything short of Gen. Stanley McChrystal's 40,000 troop request is a sign that Obama isn't listening to the commanders on the ground.

There is then, from a political perspective, no right answer in Afghanistan for the president. It is amounts to the classic "damned if you do, damned if you don't" decision.

Presidencies often rise and fall on these sorts of decisions where public opinion is divided and the chief executive must make a judgment call on what he believes to be the right course given the information before him.

That is the task before President Obama next Tuesday. It is as tough a call as he will have during his first four years in the White House.

1. The resignation of Republican National Committee communications director Trevor Francis on Monday is a sign of significant unrest within the ranks of the committee, according to several party sources. While stories differed over whether Francis jumped or was pushed from his perch, what was clear in the aftermath of his departure was that some within the committee believe that RNC Chairman Michael Steele's press-friendly approach had made Francis's job untenable. Steele allies insist that the chairman's tendency to pop off in media interviews has been significantly curtailed since the start of his chairmanship but there remain dissenting views on that idea. "Trevor did an outstanding job in a very challenging workplace environment," said one senior party official who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the party chair. Interestingly, one of the main arguments for Steele when he won a contested election for party chair back in January was that his high profile media profile gave the party the sort of presence they had sorely lacked in the final years of the Bush administration. What remains to be seen is whether Francis is an isolated case or whether his departure will be the first of several.

2. Rep. Dennis Moore's (D) surprise retirement on Monday has already drawn a laundry list of aspiring candidates to replace him. State Sen. Nick Jordan, state Rep. Kevin Yoder and former state representative Patricia Lightner are all running on the Republican side with past 3rd district candidates Jeff Colyer and Greg Musil are considering the contest. The Democratic field was less formed as the candidates let Moore have his day. But, the name on most peoples' lips is Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon although it's not clear he is interested in running. Gov. Mark Parkinson, who has said he will not run for a full term in 2010, is also seen as a strong candidate. The Kansas City-area district will likely be one of the central House battlegrounds as President Obama won it with 51 percent in 2008.

3. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has named state Sen. Abel Maldonado (R) to fill the vacancy left former Lt. Gov. John Garamendi's (D) election to Congress earlier this month. Proving, yet again, that he is more a product of Hollywood than Sacramento, Schwarzenegger made the announcement on Monday night's Jay Leno show ensuring that 99.9 percent of the viewing audience had no idea what he was talking about. Schwarzenegger said that Maldonado was "into bipartisanship and post-partisanship." Maldonado had long been considered the favorite for the appointment as he had cast the critical vote in favor of Schwarzenegger's budget plan in February. The appointment needs to be approved by the state Senate, which, as the Wall Street Journal's Stu Woo notes, is a somewhat dicey proposition; Democrats in the body may not want to hand Maldonado a statewide office while two Republicans in the chamber are already running for the LG job. A glance at recent California history suggests that the lieutenant governor's job may not be worth having. Garamendi was forced to drop from the governors race after it became clear he couldn't compete with either San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who subsequently dropped out himself, or state Attorney General Jerry Brown. And, Garamendi's predecessor, Cruz Bustamante, placed a distant second to Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election and then lost a race for state Insurance Commissioner in 2006. Gray Davis, who served as lieutenant governor for four years before being elected governor in 1998, was the one unceremoniously ousted from office by the recall.

4. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) outlined his plan of attack in his surprisingly competitive Senate primary fight against former state House speaker Marco Rubio in an interview with the indispensable Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times and the paper's editorial board. "Campaigns thank God are an educational opportunity," said Crist. "During the course of the next nine months or so we will strive to lay out a very good education." Crist said it's hard to imagine a candidate running to his ideological right on the issues although he did note that there are stylistic differences between the way he and Rubio have approached issues. "I don't know what else you're supposed to be, except maybe angry too," he added. Crist knocked down the rumor that with polls showing the Senate primary tightening he might consider running for a second term for governor instead in 2010. "That's not going to happen," he said.

5. With Houston Mayor Bill White expected to switch from the Senate race to the governor's race next week, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (R) wants everyone in the political world to know he is staying in a contest that, as of today, doesn't exist. Williams, who announced his candidacy way back in December 2008, sent out an email to supporters Monday saying that despite Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) decision to postpone her resignation until March, he "takes her at her word that Texans will go to the polls in 2010 to elect a new United States senator in a special election." Fixistas know that we remain skeptical that KBH will step down if she loses her primary challenge to Gov. Rick Perry (R) but, if she does indeed do so, Perry would still have the right to appoint a temporary replacement before a special election was held. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Perry pick would be Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst who has massive personal wealth and would likely take any concerns of Democrats winning a special election off the table. That said, Williams represents a compelling profile for a party looking for fresh faces -- an African American Republican who has run and won three times statewide.

Update 6:03 p.m.: Alex Castellanos, a Republican media consultant, will take over as a senior communications adviser to RNC Chairman Michael Steele, according to a source familiar with the move. The announcement of Castellanos' role comes hours after communications director Trevor Francis announced he was leaving the committee. But, Castellanos is taking on the strategic role on a permanent -- not interim -- basis, according to the source.

Original Post

Trevor Francis, the communications director at the Republican National Committee, is leaving his post, an odd mid-cycle departure that suggests some level of turmoil within the GOP's chief campaign committee.

"Trevor's talents will be missed at the RNC," committee Chairman Michael Steele said in a statement. "We have accomplished a great deal in the year he was here. He worked tirelessly, as did the whole team, on the victories in Virginia and his home state of New Jersey."

Francis came to the committee from the private sector, where he worked at the PR firm Burson-Marsteller. During the Bush administration, he was press secretary for Commerce Secretary Don Evans and worked press advance for President George W. Bush's 2004 campaign.

His hiring by the national committee surprised some observers as Francis had never worked with Steele previously. Steele is something of a free agent when it comes to his dealings with the press -- often serving as his own press secretary with mixed results.

Steele's tendency to freelance makes him difficult to manage from a press perspective and, according to sources familiar with Francis's departure, that tension was part of the reason he decided to step aside.

That's the gap in former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's favorability numbers among self-described conservatives (60 percent) and moderates (23 percent), according to a new independent poll conducted in the politically critical state of Iowa.

The chasm between how Palin is perceived among the Republican base and independent voters is nothing new as national polling has shown that sort of split for some time. But, that the dichotomy exists in Iowa, the place where Palin would -- presumably -- make her foray into presidential politics in 2012, is worth noting.

The numbers, which come courtesy of Ann Selzer aka the pollster who nailed the results of the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses, suggest that Palin is a potentially potent force in the state's caucus system but could well lose the swing state if she emerged as the party's nominee.

Among only Republicans, Palin has a very solid 68 percent favorable rating -- the second highest of any potential 2012 GOPer. (Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the Rodney Dangerfield of the Republican party, stood at 70 percent favorable in the poll.)

Those numbers got Palin a headline in the Des Moines Register that any candidate with national ambitions would covet ("State Republicans like what they see in Sarah Palin") and are a very nice set-up for Palin's visit to Sioux City on Dec. 6 to promote "Going Rogue".

But, other data points in the poll should be worrisome to establishment Republicans who see real opportunity to oust President Barack Obama in 2012.

Despite her strong favorable numbers among Republicans, just 37 percent of all Iowans see Palin in a favorable light while a whopping 55 percent regard her unfavorably. Of that 55 percent, a whopping 30 percent rate Palin "very" unfavorably -- well more than the 12 percent who rate her very favorably. That sort of strong opposition to the idea of Palin means that if she wound up as the party's nominee in 2012 there will be many Democrats and even some Independents who will show up simply to vote against her -- never a good thing.

And, the fact that just eight percent of Iowans don't have an opinion about Palin -- a stunningly low number for a politician who is still relatively new to the national stage -- suggests that the former Governor will struggle to change her image in any meaningful way if she does decide to run for president.

The numbers out of Iowa bear out the Palin conundrum facing the GOP: she is amazingly popular within the party base and amazingly polarizing -- not in a good way -- among everyone else.

Arkansas Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe has all the tools to be a star but he lacks national ambition. AP Photo/Danny Johnston

In a world filled with politicians whose ambitions far outstrip their talents, Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe is the exact opposite.

Beebe is among the most popular politicians in the country with polls regularly showing more than seven in ten voters in the Razorback State approving of the job he had done since coming to office in 2006.

And yet, despite repeated urgings from state and national admirers, Beebe expresses no interest in following in the national footsteps of past Arkansas governors named Clinton and Huckabee.

"I'm not a great traveler," Beebe told the Fix in an interview as part of our "Rising" series that profiles politicians you don't know but should. He added that the Democratic Governors Association had approached him several times in recent years to take on more of a leadership role but he had resisted. "They just want more folks to volunteer for hard duties," joked Beebe about the DGA entreaties.

Beebe's path to popularity (if not national prominence) has been a slow one. He spent two decades in the Arkansas state Senate before running and winning a race for Arkansas Attorney General in 2002.

Four years later, he sought the governor's office against former Rep. Asa Hutchinson who was touted by national Republicans as a potential star. Beebe crushed Hutchinson 56 percent to 41 percent and has spent the next three years focused on, in his own words, trying to drag the state from its traditional place at the bottom of state rankings on things like education and heath care.

"It's hard to get really excited about being 40th in something," Beebe acknowledges but notes that the successes the state has had in recent years -- moving to 40th in terms of overall health from 50th a decade ago --- are "nothing short of miraculous." (Of course, Beebe's predecessor -- former Gov. Mike Huckabee -- deserves a piece of that success as well.)

Former Ambassador Tom Schieffer's (D) decision to leave the Texas governor's race leaves a gaping hole for an establishment candidate, a space many people expect Houston Mayor Bill White to fill.

Schieffer, the brother of "Face the Nation" host and all-around-great-guy Bob Schieffer is expected to leave the contest later today, according to a report in the Texas Tribune.

And, according to a source familiar with White's thinking, the Mayor, who is currently running for the not-yet-open seat held by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), will announce whether he will switch races as soon as tomorrow. The expectation is that he will make the switch although no one with intimate knowledge of White's thinking appears to be talking.

If White does run for governor, he gives Democrats a credible candidate who would be positioned to benefit from what is already a very nasty primary fight between Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry. (The Perry-KBH race is the number one ranked contest on the Fix's Line of the best primaries in the country in 2010.)

Democrats, who have been decimated in the state over the past decade, have long seen the 2010 governor's race as their best chance to re-establish a foothold in Texas politics.

The state's growing Hispanic population -- and that group's strong move to the Democratic party in 2008 -- give the party reason to hope as does the fact that White is a known commodity in the state's largest (and most expensive) media market. White has also shown a capacity for raising money -- he ended September with more than $4 million in the bank, all of which could be transferred to a gubernatorial race.

Of course, Texas has become a Republican stronghold in recent years -- the party controls both Senate seats, 20 of the 32 House seats and every statewide office -- and either Perry or Hutchison would be favored against White in a general election.

With Hutchison delaying her resignation until after the March 2 primary (if at all), White may well see the governor's race as a more attractive option and make the leap. If he does, former state Comptroller John Sharp will be the almost-certain Democratic nominee if and when KBH steps aside -- a prospect, for the record, which we remain very skeptical about.

If White does make the switch he is rightly regarded as an "A" level candidate and something of a recruiting coup for the Democratic Governors Association.

Kansas Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore will leave the House in 2010, a decision that hands Republicans a golden opportunity for a pickup next year.

Brandon Naylor, communications director for Moore, confirmed the news, which was first reported by the Kansas City Star's Steve Kraske, and said that the Congressman would be releasing a statement on his decision later this morning.

Moore's decision is an interesting one given that he was being only lightly targeted by national Republicans after weathering a series of brutal battles earlier in the decade.

Regardless of the "why", Moore's departure makes his eastern Kansas seat a major Republican target next year. President Barack Obama narrowly won the seat with 51 percent in 2008 and then President George W. Bush carried it by 11 points in 2004.

Republicans, surprised by the announcement, were unsure of what the field would look like to replace Moore although the first name mentioned was former state Sen. Nick Jordan who took 40 percent of the vote against the incumbent in 2008. Jordan is seen as a unifying figure within a party that has seen battles between its moderates and conservative wings cost them the governorship, Moore's seat and several other races over the last decade.

It remains to be seen whether Moore's retirement is a harbinger of things to come for House Democrats or an isolated case.

To date, just eight House Democrats are retiring -- a low number that has been expected to insulate the party from massive seat losses next November.

If Moore is the first of a series of Democratic incumbents who decide to take a pass on running for re-election in what is shaping up to be a very tough environment, it will widen the playing field considerably and raise Republicans chances of winning a significant number of seats in the midterms.

1. President Obama meets with his Cabinet this afternoon at a critical time -- on both the domestic and foreign fronts -- for his administration. Obama won a victory over the weekend with the Senate's vote to bring his health care bill to the floor for debate but statements by Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) among others on the Sunday talks shows suggest that trouble lurks -- most notably over whether or not a public option will make the final version of the bill (if, of course, there is a final version of the bill). Internationally, Obama's decision on Afghanistan is expected any day -- make sure to read the Post's Mike Shear's terrific piece on the ever-shrinking calendar -- but it has become increasingly clear that the time the president has taken to make the decision has actually complicated things. Wrote the Post's Dan Balz in his Sunday Take: "The lengthy policy debate inside the administration has spun out of control as it nears its finish, with damaging leaks and counterleaks." Cabinet meetings have become more photo-op than serious policy discussion in recent years but the gathering of the Obama braintrust -- the first since Sept. 10 -- is sure to set off discussion of the series of challenges facing the administration in the coming months.

2. The headline out of Gallup's daily tracking poll Friday was that the president's job approval numbers had dipped below 50 percent. Context matters, however. First, as Gallup noted, Obama's numbers have fluctuated within a relatively small range this fall after dropping somewhat precipitously in July and August. Second, as we noted when we wrote about the Quinnipiac poll, which showed Obama at 48 percent, last week's polls are a snapshot in time and using them as predictive measures is a major mistake. Interestingly, the arc of Obama's job approval as president most closely mirrors that of Ronald Reagan who dropped under 50 percent just days before Obama -- albeit 28 years earlier. If Obama stays on the Reagan path, the 2010 midterms will be tough on House Democrats (Reagan's party lost 26 seats in the House in 1982) and a break-even year for Senate Democrats (Republicans picked up a single seat in 1982).

3. The New York Times's Frank Rich has penned an insightful column on former Alaska governor Sarah Palin that includes this critical observation: "Palin is far and away the most important brand in American politics after Barack Obama, and attention must be paid. Those who wishfully think her 15 minutes are up are deluding themselves." We couldn't agree more -- whether or not you agree with Palin, she is a prime mover in Republican politics and cannot be ignored by anyone hoping to understand where the party is and where it's going. While Rich is highly critical of Palin in the piece, he does get at the heart -- we think -- of her outsize role within the political world; at one point Rich calls Palin the "pit bull in the china shop of American politics" and adds that "she can do what she wants, on her own timeline, all the while raking in the big bucks she couldn't as a sitting governor." Rich is right and that scares the Republican establishment.

4. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) continues to insist he will not run for president in 2012 even while giving speeches that sound very much like those of a national candidate. Daniels' latest came in an address to the state Republican Party in which he pledged loftily that the GOP must "be soldiers who think always of opportunity, not of reputation." Daniels also slammed the Obama administration: "The pose is over," he declared. "I don't know what color these dogs are, but friends, it ain't blue, I'll tell you that right now." Daniels, as we have written in this space, could well be an appealing national candidate for Republicans as he has spent the past five years running out the same sort of hope and change message with which President Obama captivated the country last year. But, despite that appealing profile, Daniels pledged during his 2008 gubernatorial campaign that he would not run for any other office and he seems to be sticking by it. Of course, minds can change in politics....

5. Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio's (D) strident call for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to resign -- the only House Democrat to do so to date -- has the whiff of politics, according to some longtime political observers. DeFazio, who turned down recruitment efforts for the 2008 Senate race, continues to flirt with the possibility of running for governor next fall. Running as a populist could be DeFazio's way into a governor's race with several well known names led by former governor John Kitzhaber. Republicans lost their best candidate late last week when Rep. Greg Walden announced he was staying in Congress. Without Walden, Republicans may well cede the state to whomever Democrats nominate.