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Afternoon Fix: Dem poll shows Conway 49, Paul 47; Republicans hit Reid for Ritz-y lifestyle; McMahon has spent more than $40 million

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FIRST ON THE FIX

* A new Democratic poll shows Democrat Jack Conway surging in the Kentucky Senate race. The Bennet, Petts and Normington poll, conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and shared with The Fix, shows Conway at 49 percent and Republican Rand Paul at 47 percent - Conway's best showing in a poll since late June. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday, a day after Conway's campaign launched a controversial new ad which became the topic du jour in a debate on Sunday night.

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED

* A new DSCC ad urges Nevada voters to "work that anger out in the ring" rather than vote for Sharron Angle (R). Meanwhile, new ads from Angle and the National Republican Senatorial Committee both hit Sen. Harry Reid for living at the Ritz-Carlton while Nevada struggles with unemployment.

* Linda McMahon (R) has now spent $42.1 million of her own money on her Connecticut Senate campaign, including $20 million between July 22 and Sept. 30.

* A worthwhile new ad from California Attorney General Jerry Brown's (D) governor campaign splices recordings of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and GOP nominee Meg Whitman (R) using many of the same phrases.

* West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and his Senate opponent John Raese are in a statistical tie in a new Fox News poll, with Raese at 48 percent and 45 percent. Fox also shows the Colorado Senate race a virtual dead heat; it has Rep. Roy Blunt (R) taking a six-point lead in the Missouri Senate race; and it shows former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo's third-party candidacy within five points of Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) in the Colorado governor's race.

* The America's Families First Action Fund, a liberal-leaning super PAC charged with creating a firewall for Democrats in the House, has launched a combined $1.9 million worth of ads in districts held by Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Frank Kratovil (D-Md.), Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) and Tom Perriello (D-Va.), as well as the open seat held by retiring Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.), according to reports filed Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission.

WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T MISS

* President Obama flatly denies any designs on switching out his running mate for 2012. Does that finally put to rest the speculation?

* Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias will take part in an Illinois Senate debate moderated by ABC News's George Stephanopoulos at 8 p.m. eastern. It will air live on C-SPAN.

* The additions of Grijalva and Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa) to the list of districts where national Democrats are spending money caught many by surprise. All three districts went at least 57 percent for President Obama in 2008. So who's the next unexpectedly vulnerable Democrat?

* Fox's poll isn't the first to show Tancredo creeping closer in the Colorado governor's race, but Republicans would lose major-party status in the state if their nominee, Dan Maes, doesn't pull at least 10 percent. With it looking more and more like Maes will fall short of that threshold, do Republicans embrace Tancredo, as state GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams seems to be suggesting?

* Sarah Palin and her family are surrounded by bears in a leaked clip of her TLC reality series.

THE FIX MIX

Would have loved to see them when they were dating

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake

By Aaron Blake  | October 19, 2010; 5:00 PM ET
Categories:  Afternoon Fix  
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