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Blue Wave, Backlash, or Something in Between?

Guest poster Katherine Rooney considers the possibility of a backlash against the Democrats....

Was President Bush onto something when he chastised Democrats last week for "dancing in the end zone" and "measuring their drapes" too early?

As polls and pundits point to possible Election Day gains by Democrats, the idea that all the publicity might actually hurt them has been percolating below the surface.

Mason Dixon poll results published Tuesday in The Denver Post show that in Colorado's 5th District Republican Doug Lamborn, who was tied with Democrat Jay Fawcett earlier this month, has jumped to a seven percentage point lead in the open seat contest, and some experts are attributing Lamborn's gain to a backlash against Democrats.

No Democrat has held the seat since it was created in 1972, but the race received national attention in early October when another Denver Post poll showed the candidates tied at 37 percent each, most likely due to the sour national mood toward Republicans (Fawcett was also helped by disparaging comments the district's incumbent congressman, Joel Hefley, made about Lamborn). But the quick bounce back by Lamborn might indicate that the tide is changing for the GOP in some races.

Colorado College political science professor Bob Loevy told The Denver Post, "I've detected in Colorado and across the country a bit of a circle-the-wagons attitude on the part of Republicans, and I think this may be helping Lamborn at this point."

Loevy went on to say, "I think all of this publicity about 'it's going to be a big Democratic year' has caused a lot of Republicans who might otherwise have voted Democratic ... to develop a psychology of 'my party needs me.'"

In a few contentious races nationwide former Democratic leads are being whittled down. For instance, in the Illinois 8th District, incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean (D) was ahead of challenger David McSweeney (R) by 9 percentage points in a Chicago Tribune poll last week, but a new Daily Herald/ABC-7 Chicago poll published this week shows Bean ahead by 3 percentage points, a lead that lies within the poll's four-point margin of error.

And in Texas's 22nd District -- which was once thought to be a potentially easy win for Democrats after being vacated by scandal-plagued House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R) -- a poll commissioned by the Houston Chronicle shows Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) well positioned to win as a write-in candidate.

It's hard to tell whether shrinking Democratic poll leads in scattered races are a real problem for Democrats or just a bump in the road on their way to a majority in one or both houses of Congress. What do you think?

-- Katherine Rooney

By washingtonpost.com Editors  |  October 31, 2006; 9:01 PM ET
 
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Comments

Here ya go Kat and Chris and other Bush hacks:
Overnight Development In Haggard Accusations
Colorado Springs
11 News
After a day of whirlwind controversy surrounding new life church and its leader Ted Haggard, who went on administrative leave earlier Thursday, the acting Senior Pastor, Ross Parsley tells KKTV 11 News that Pastor Haggard has admitted to some of the indiscretions.
Gee, I guess there goes another safe red district! Get this: steal another election and have these hacks makeup more bs about shy GOPers, or Rove the genius, or non-existent values voters, or Kerry blew it and we will take our guns, join with elements of the 101st, arrest members of this Mafia Regime, smash every single e-voting machine owned by Tom Hicks and the other mafia companies, and put in power those who were elected.

Posted by: I hear the train a comin' | November 3, 2006 2:37 AM | Report abuse

Here you go: a little fact that should tell you that Chris and Kat are just yet more shills for this Bush Mafia. Where is Bush going tells us what is up. And where is Bush going? To NJ? to NY? CT? The exurbs? Suburbs? Nah. He's heading to Nebraska! for f sakes! NEBRASKA! Get that around your minds, Chris and Kat! And all other deluded Bush Facists and closet conservatives. Look here:Western Nebraska, too, was ticketed for a presidential visit, Bush's presence deemed needed to save a House seat that Democrats last held 50 years ago. FIFTY YEARS! That's right! What happened to Kansas? What the heck is happening to Nebraska, the red of red. Now, if this country sees another stolen election we might get Morin and the rest of the Bush Mafia shills telling us it was Kerry, it was Roves's genius, blah, blah. No, when your party needs to send your leader to a seat in a place you have controlled for half a century you know that your party is toast. The only way they avoid total destruction, and we are talking more than 35 seats in the House, we are talking seats like Kelly's in NY, and maybe Leach in Iowa, is to steal it and have a dumb, naive and corrupt CM help make excuses for the theft.

Posted by: I hear a train a comin' | November 2, 2006 10:54 PM | Report abuse

REPAIRMAN
I'm honored to provide you with my projections. I provided more detail on a post to another FIX article

TODAY I project 26 House seats flips to DEMS and Senate at 50/50. I think McCasskill takes MO, but not convinced of Webb's chances. Maybe a few more polls. The issue for me on the Webb polls is the total flipping from Allen to Webb. I think Ford is suffering from overt racism that I have always thought would surface in this race. We are after all talking about the GOP south, formerly Democratic racist attitudes that persist in TN and other parts of the RED states.

Posted by: Stick A Fork In It. | November 1, 2006 10:45 PM | Report abuse

I think Kerry woke America up to the dangerous left-wing of the democratic party. The spitting libs, as the military community calls them, scare the heck of voters. I think the dems will still win the house, but no landslide. In fact, if the republicans can convince a couple of southern democrats to switch after the election, they can keep it.

Posted by: Karen | November 1, 2006 7:04 PM | Report abuse

Oh yes, Bush knows a lot about "dancing in the end zone". Remember "Mission Accomplished"?
If I wanted RNC talking points I would be reading The Washington Times or tuning into Fox.

Posted by: Maria | November 1, 2006 6:12 PM | Report abuse

It never ceases to amaze me how intense the predictions and statistical crystal-balling that metastasize prior to any elections. A healthy dose of polling is good but I swear we spend more time analyzing and re-analyzing all the polling data and their conclusions, permutations, limitations, biases, etc. Lets admit it to ourselves: We almost always interpret poll results through our biased lens. If Republicans are ahead, Dems claim that they have put the wool over our eyes with their "fear-mongering" but when Dems are ahead its because the nation is rationally against the Republicans. Pathetic.

Posted by: NN | November 1, 2006 5:19 PM | Report abuse

It never ceases to amaze me how intense the predictions and statistical crystal-balling that metastasize prior to any elections. A healthy dose of polling is good but I swear we spend more time analyzing and re-analyzing all the polling data and their conclusions, permutations, limitations, biases, etc. Lets admit it to ourselves: We almost always interpret poll results through our biased lens. If Republicans are ahead, Dems claim that they have put the wool over our eyes with their "fear-mongering" but when Dems are ahead its because the nation is rationally against the Republicans. Pathetic.

Posted by: NN | November 1, 2006 5:19 PM | Report abuse

a poll commissioned by the Houston Chronicle shows Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) well positioned to win as a write-in candidate.

well positioned?

8 pts is closer than you would like but hardly well-positioned. If down by 8 is well-positioned, than Republicans are well positioned to lose 58 seats total.

Posted by: RMill | November 1, 2006 2:40 PM | Report abuse

SYWanda,
I think the latest polls show Boswell ahead by 10 points. He should pull it off. I find the Leach/Loebsack race in Iowa-02 more interesting. Leach is a moderate Republican in a Democratic District who may well lose. National media has ignored this race so far.

Posted by: SRin Iowa | November 1, 2006 2:19 PM | Report abuse

two factors are at play here:

1. the undecideds are coming home, and many republicans that had been upset and holding out are now toeing the party line. typically in unstable elections like this, usually committed partisan voters hold out until the last week. every race that isn't already a blowout will experience tightening or shifting of leads within the margin of error.

2. sampling. many of these polls are random samples, or even if they are stratefied samples from voter files have totally different turnout models. the fact is, that in years like this with a roiling electorate, turnout is almost impossible to predict. and different polls use different methodolgies, with different outcomes. polls are only guides, and expecting them to accurately predict voter sentiment is fantasy.

with that said, comparing polls from different pollsters is like comparing apples and oranges, unless you are positive they used identical turnout models from identical data sources, and identicle weighting of the results. you should instead be looking for trends within polls from the same firm.

what we're seeing now are partisan voters going home. but the indicators everywhere are that turnout is going to be very different than other midterm years, so all of these could just be whistling past the graveyard.

but to characterize it as a backlash is totally wrong.

Posted by: Mike Shimpock | November 1, 2006 2:13 PM | Report abuse

This is nothing more than an attempt to warm us to the idea of no net loss for Republicans due to election fraud. They need to chip away and put the bug in our ear that we're over hyping the desire for a coherent direction after this mid-term.

It'd be nice if the international community came down hard on us and had strict election monitoring to prevent our continual slide towards a dictatorship....we apparently can no longer govern ourselves.

Posted by: mrmedicare | November 1, 2006 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Still waiting for an answer from Stick a Fork in It...

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | November 1, 2006 11:01 AM | Report abuse

I didn't realize this guest-blogger was a partisan. The post makes more sense, now.

Speaking of partisans, what happened to King of Zouk, Bhoomes, and VivaBushOH04? I would love to hear their take on current races.

Posted by: Brittain33 | November 1, 2006 11:00 AM | Report abuse

DC;

I think you are right-on with your prediction. But maybe one more Dem senate seat than you suggest, which would have a huge effect, compared to your prediction.

IMPEACH CHENEY FIRST!

Use the House to impeach Cheney, and use that impeachment as a clearing-house for ALL the big questions, which could include Rove's election faud, Cheney's energy-industry task force sellout, the lies leading up to the war, the meetings with Abramofdf, the outing of Valerie Plame. all of this subterfuge could be uncovered and exposed by impeaching Cheney.

Then, if there's enought time left, go after Bush. The Cheney impeachment should revealo all the high crimes and misdemeanors necessary to have a very righteous Presidential impeachment this time around.

Whether it removes either of them from office really doesn't matter, this late in the game.

But it will open up the truth for our future reference. And once we know how they cheated, and got away with it, we can improve our laws so that it won't ever happen again.

NEVER AGAIN!

Posted by: JEP | November 1, 2006 10:27 AM | Report abuse

Has anyone looked at the contests in purple places such as Iowa? We have a governor's race that's looking fairly decent towards Culver, but I don't know about the Boswell/"Dave" Lamberti race.

Posted by: SYWanda | November 1, 2006 10:22 AM | Report abuse

Democrates take the house, but there will be a 49-49 tie for the Senate. With two independents being the power brokers, effectively eliminating Cheney as the tie breaker.

Posted by: DC | November 1, 2006 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Drindl hit it straight on. How many GOTV blurbs have I heard from the Cable TV lackeys?

Librul media? O'Reilly? Hannity? Carlson? Scarborough? Gimme a break....

How about a story about how the President of the United States came down here into georgia and said Democrats were on the side of the terrorist?

Posted by: NorthGA Truth | November 1, 2006 9:37 AM | Report abuse

CO-5, IL-8 (only won by Bean, remember, because of Phil Crane's Foley-like personal implosion) and TX-22 are all redder-than-red districts. If those are all the author has to cite as evidence of a Republican "comeback," the GOP is in even more trouble than this Democrat thought.

Posted by: Larry Parker | November 1, 2006 9:15 AM | Report abuse

Drindl: yes, the MSM is going to help the Democrats by running...John Kerry hates our troops! 24/7! Golly, he should apologize! Even George Bush says so! This being the same Bush who, of course, never apologizes for the 600,000 deaths he's personally responsible for but that certainly doesn't stop him from attacking Kerry for flubbing a punchline. Oh, and Bush supports our troops so much; that whole body armor thing is so over-rated!

Try to come up with a bumpersticker that captures "When Kerry tried to tell a joke, no one died."

Posted by: Judge C. Crater | November 1, 2006 8:47 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, I agree about this writer... this is the official R line now.. they're all energized because the 'MSM' is trying to help the Dems win ... as if. Funny how this story line is everywhere--the phenomenomal GOP GOTV machine is going to pull it off, Dems might as well stay home.

Yesterday Senator Allen's campaign showed its true thuggish colors... bet we'll be seeing more attacks on Dems as the R's crack under the threat of losing...

'Also Tuesday, Sen. George Allen of Virginia faced criticism from Democrats over taped footage showing his supporters tackling a student who approached him at an event in Charlottesville, Va.

Mike Stark, a University of Virginia law student who operates a liberal blog, approached the senator and asked "Why did you spit at your first wife, George?" according to the Associated Press.

Allen was married to Anne Waddell from 1980 to 1984; after their divorce, he remarried.

Three men wearing Allen stickers grabbed Stark, removed him from the hall and threw him to the ground.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee quickly distributed via e-mail a video clip of the encounter from a local television station.

Allen's campaign did not return calls seeking comment about the incident.

Posted by: drindl | November 1, 2006 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Shorter version: Independants and a few Republicans were going to vote Dem because they were furious with the GOP over Iraq, incompetance, etc. But now they're sour on the Dems because the Dems think they'll win.

Please. And using CO-5 (a disttrict created by DEMOCRATS to consolidate conservative support) as an example is just proof of how thin this argument is.

TX-22? 35% of respondents in a strongly conservative district say they'll vote for a 'write-in.' Saying you'll do this and actually writing out her whole ridiculously long name are two very different things.

Sorry. Try again.

Posted by: Andrew | November 1, 2006 8:19 AM | Report abuse

This article baffles me. Aside from the Lamborn portion, which has already been dissected, I should point out that the TX-22 poll is from Zogby. This is the guy who says Bob Beauprez is going to win Colorado and John Kerry was going to win Tennessee.

As for the Melissa Bean polls - they are two different polling firms, so they had two different results. House races are very hard to poll. I really don't see how this is proof of a tightening race. The race has always been tight.

This article is...well...it's fascinating, I guess.

Posted by: Jon | November 1, 2006 7:44 AM | Report abuse

You have to bring the facts Ms. Rooney. Why is our time being used to propagandize on behalf of the Bush/Cheney/Rove machine?
The overnight polls certainly aren't identifying any abatement of the blue wave.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Posted by: Pdoggie | November 1, 2006 7:26 AM | Report abuse

I was waiting for this story. Reporters have been writing about voter discontent and Democratic possibilities for months now, and they're getting bored with it. I was wondering who the first contrarian would be, and now we know. The next question will be how quickly other media outlets jump on this new bandwagon. Couldn't everyone see this coming?

Posted by: whiteline | November 1, 2006 6:11 AM | Report abuse

What garbage! Who is this person? Another Rove bs infiltration. If you make some silly statement back it up with something, OK? or just shut it. So, here is why the GOP is going to go down and go down hard, unless they have stolen it again
With his approval rating just below 40 percent, Bush approaches Election Day less popular than all but two presidents in the post-World War II era. Only Harry S. Truman in 1946 and Richard M. Nixon, who had resigned three months before the 1974 midterms, were lower. Even presidents going into midterm elections with higher approval ratings than Bush's -- Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1958, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966, Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1994 -- have seen their parties suffer major losses.

The best any president has done with an approval rating below 50 percent was in 1978, when Jimmy Carter was at 49 percent. That year, Republicans picked up 15 House seats, exactly the number Democrats need this year to take control of that chamber.
OK, Chris and Kat? Get it yet? I don't know how you get such a column. Oh! I know! You are friends with the NeoNut Fred!
Tell us again, respond please: how do you see a GOP rise from looking at perhaps the most red district in the country? And why is it that Bush is heading to places like Texas, Nebraska, Idaho?! if there is anything but a complete destruction coming the GOP way? And, oh yeah, by 2 to 1 independents support the Demo. Facts, facts, fcats please!

Posted by: We Want No More Rove BS | November 1, 2006 6:01 AM | Report abuse

Ms Rooney mentions the Texas District 22 race and a recent poll by the Houston Chronicle. Many have misinterpreted its results to make the race appear tighter than it is. The poll questions actually concerned whether a voter would "consider" voting for a write in candidate and who that candidate might be. That's an entirely different question than whether a likely voter intends to vote for a specific candidate. District 22 will most likely have a Democrat represenative this time around.

Posted by: Dennis | November 1, 2006 5:57 AM | Report abuse

Isn't Katerine a rabid Republican operative with ties to Indiana right-wingers? Is this story a plant?

Posted by: Kenneth Paddick | November 1, 2006 5:51 AM | Report abuse

Then again, if anyone knows anything about prematurely declaring victory, it's Bush

Posted by: Michael | November 1, 2006 4:19 AM | Report abuse

Bush and his gang can turn anything into a "story." How is it that the Democrats are to blame when pundits forecast a victory for them?

If these guys made using the near total power they have a priority for the common good, we would be better off. Instead, its just a tool for them to do as they please.

Posted by: NGeorgia Truth | November 1, 2006 3:58 AM | Report abuse

Btw, I'm now totally convinced that I should be wielding that fork, not you.

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | November 1, 2006 2:55 AM | Report abuse

Stick a Fork in it: You still haven't answered my question. Based on all the data I've presented here, in recent previous posts, and in links, how many seats are you saying we should expect to pick up? It's easy to pooh-pooh everyone else's predictions--where are yours?

At least 4 public polls now have found Webb ahead of Allen. What does it take to convince you, short of a victory on election night? This is not one outlier poll, like the Survey USA one that found McCaskill 9 points up on Talent. This is a clear trend; 4 different polling organizations have found the same thing.

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | November 1, 2006 2:54 AM | Report abuse

I agree that races like CO-5 and CA-50 are races that should not be, therefore, when the Bilbray's and Lamborn's win those races, I'm not overly shocked. Do I think Fawcett and Busby have a decently legit chance of winning, absolutely, but I won't be surprised if they lose. The fact that Lamborn is beginning to pull away in a Republican Bastion that is very conservative does not surprise me at all. On the other hand, what does surprise me is that this district is competetive at all. I believe that the fact that this district is competetive is more indicitive of the Republican troubles than Lamborn starting to pull away will ever be about Democratic troubles. You can count me among the surprised (and very very very happy) if Fawcett wins this race.

Posted by: Rob Millette | November 1, 2006 1:48 AM | Report abuse

CO-5 was created to stick all the C Springs Republicans into a single district to make the state more democratic, the thought that this seat is even competitive is shocking, so the fact that Republicans are coming home to their Republican candidate should surprise no one. For every backlash we see in one direction, something will happen to cause it to go the other way. Today everyone was talking about a backlash agaisnt Kerry, tomorrow it will be about republicans lying about what he said and drawing attention to the fact he was saying bush was an idiot and he was too dumb even to pick up on it. I still see Dems picking up 18-25 in the House and 4 in the Senate, although Virginia and Missouri might now be making things very interesting (in that order).

Posted by: Michael | November 1, 2006 1:15 AM | Report abuse

Mr. Repairman. I understand statistics and translations, and extrapolations. I follow trends and see the numbers. I still do not detect an uptick in GOP on any scale, large or small. I also dont take serious the quick change in polls....in particular the sudden switch in VA....Even though four polls show this trend. I look at a 3-4 week trend line.

Posted by: Stick A Fork In It | November 1, 2006 12:08 AM | Report abuse

Bios of the other writers on The Fix sound like a good idea. I don't mind multiple or additional writers at all, but it would be nice to know a little something about them.

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 31, 2006 11:43 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, that's right NeoCon press, talk it up all you want, get the nation ready for another theft by this Bush Mafia, but we taint buying the bs this year. Looking at perhaps the nuttiest of nutty places in the US to see a GOP comeback is just, well, nutty. These facts: 17 are tossups according to you. They can't steal them all, can they? Next: right-wing Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska and Montana are all showing GOP in big schight. Add the fact that Bush is going to Delay's seat to save that one and you have to be completely braindead to even suggest that the Demos aren't going to smash the GOP this year. Please tell me again how it is that you can reach a conclusion that the GOP is bouncing back when these right states are saying they are going to kickout their GOP members?!

Posted by: We Gone Nuts | October 31, 2006 11:11 PM | Report abuse

Agree with 'Stick a Fork In It' who wrote:

"Personally this sounds like we are scouring the country looking for any good news for the GOP."

BTW, can we get a bio for guest poster Katherine Rooney posted? It is useful to know something about the background of someone who gets to post under WaPo's logo (even if she is only subbing).

Posted by: Stick another fork | October 31, 2006 11:06 PM | Report abuse

If it helps you, here is a paper written by 3 academics on how to translate generic ballot polls into numbers of seats gained: http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=657

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 31, 2006 10:59 PM | Report abuse

Look at this and tell me how many seats we can expect Democrats to gain based on it: http://www.cookpolitical.com/poll/default.php

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 31, 2006 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Not comfortable with my predictions?? Guess you better hand ME that fork...

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 31, 2006 10:51 PM | Report abuse

Not so confortable with "Sandwich Repairman" prognosis. I also dont see much of a trend line for the GOP coming home. Rather what I see is the GOP planning to stay home.

My GOP friends dont want to talk politics. They are genuinely displeased with the national leadership. They are patriotic and quite understandably feel let down by this President. I suspect half of them will not vote at all.

OF course they are mostly moderate voters and have always had a disdain for the religious right yet tolerated them much as this fiscal Conservative DEM goes along with the more left leaning liberals.


What I think will happen is neocons will vote next week. Moderate GOP will stay home or will split their tickets. Independants have already said no to the GOP. In close contests, a truly conservative neocon district will stay with the GOP. In areas where independents and moderates are a larger voting block, I think the DEMS win.

THis is the analysis I would like to see. WHat kind of voters exist in places like Lane of IL district.

Posted by: Stick a Fork In it | October 31, 2006 10:46 PM | Report abuse

I guess this post would be correct if the ultimate goal was for Democrats to win every race. The fact that a few sure fire GOP districts will actually be won by the GOP ... goodness, somebody call Matt Drudge. He's busy printing lies and dirt? Oh well then I guess we'll have to be satisfied with a biased guest posting from someone I hope is never asked back.

Posted by: Greg in LA | October 31, 2006 10:41 PM | Report abuse

I'm not sure how much the poll showing a tie in TX-22 really means given that Lampson's name is actually on the ballot while voters will have to endure a complicated process to write in Sekula-Gibbs.

Republicans in some places seem to be bouncing back slightly (e.g. Conrad Burns who is still going to lose), but this is still a huge Democratic wave year no matter how you slice it. Just today a Cook/RT Strategies poll found a *26 points Democratic advantage* on the generic ballot test. Bush is flogging straw men, like usual.

Polls in 60 House races released yesterday showed the Democrats gaining 38-40 House seats. Multiple polls now show Webb ahead of Allen in the VA Senate race, and newer polls today show Menendez with a comfortable lead over Kean in NJ. Jim Talent's approval rating and re-elect numbers are both under 45%. That race has been tied, tied, tied all year, and will be the closest Senate race on Election Day. I have a feeling the stem cell and minimum wage ballot initiatives, coupled with a deft and aggressive campaign, may put McCaskill over the top.

We're all but assured of winning the open CO-7 seat (as well as the Governorship there), and Musgrave in CO-4 (not 2) has a good chance of losing. Yes, the 5th district would be the hardest one for Democrats to win in CO. It might happen, it might not. But how many eyes were focused on IL-10 most of this year? New polling shows the Democratic challenger 2 points ahead of Mark Kirk there. What about PA-4? ID-1? WY-AL? KS-2? WA-5? Same for OH-12, where Rep. Pat Tiberi is only at 51% to 46% for his 79 year old challenger now. This race has only been listed as competitive in the last week or two.

Will we win all these races bloggers are getting excited about and the DCCC is putting money into? Of course not. By the same token, from my experience over the past 3 election cycles, there will be races that don't even show up on anyone's list of competitive races now that end up being Election Night surprises.

Predictions of 240 House Democrats, 52 Senate Democrats, and 30 Democratic Governors are entirely reasonable.

http://sandwichrepair.blogspot.com

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 31, 2006 10:33 PM | Report abuse

Of all the House seats in Colorado that are at all seriously contested, Colorado 5 was always the longest shot as far as Democrats were concerned (there are no seriously contested Democratic seats in Colorado). It would not be contested at all except that Doug Lamborn is so right-wing that even the retiring GOP incumbent Joel Hefley would not endorse him.

Keep in mind what is happening in two other Colorado districts. The open 7th District was supposed to be close, but the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has apparently pulled funding out of this race because the Democrat, Perlmutter, is so far ahead, and because Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in the 2nd District is facing a much tougher challenge than expected. THOSE districts may be a better indicator of what is happening than the 5th with its strong partisan tilt.

Posted by: Steven J. Berke | October 31, 2006 10:01 PM | Report abuse

The RNC has targeted specific races to hold of congress by a slim margin and sacrificing a net loss of seats to remain in control. This is very apparent from the 90% negative ad campaign in TN, MO, and VA.

Tennessee senatorial race the RNC is pouring the negative ads into the state aginst Harold Ford. This one ends with "The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising"

http://www.travisandjonathan.com/RSUford.html

Posted by: Anonymous | October 31, 2006 9:50 PM | Report abuse

"But the quick bounce back by Lamborn might indicate that the tide is changing for the GOP in some races."

CO-5 being as hyper-Republican as it is, all this indicates is that some Republicans are coming home to their party. What remains to be seen for a true turning of the tide is for all Republicans and a good number of independents to join them, as in the past. Doesn't look to be happening.

Posted by: Brittain33 | October 31, 2006 9:43 PM | Report abuse

Couple points:

1. It would be shocking if Democrats won CO-5. Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-1 in that district. And while Lamborn is sort of a sucky candidate, and Fawcett's a good one, its almost impossible to win.

2. The Zogby poll on TX-22 showed that a write-in candidate was competitive with Lampson (1 point behind). However, only 72% of those who said they intended to write in a candidate said they intended to write in Sekular-Gibbs.

Now, if you wanted to argue that this poll shows that Lampson will have a very hard time holding the seat once the Republicans have a candidate on the ballot, I would completely agree. But this time, I think he takes it.

Posted by: JoshA | October 31, 2006 9:36 PM | Report abuse


Personally this sounds like we are scouring the country looking for any good news for the GOP. Stick a fork in it, the neocons reign of deceit, lies, corruption, and ineptness is rapidly coming to a close.

Posted by: Stick A Fork In It. | October 31, 2006 9:22 PM | Report abuse

For every race you see slightly trending a little towards the Republican, you see 8-10 trending Democratic. A couple of statistical outliers do not make a trend. Not even a bump in the road--maybe a small puddle.

Posted by: Zathras | October 31, 2006 9:21 PM | Report abuse

A bump in the road the anger against the Repugs is enormous.

Posted by: Ed | October 31, 2006 9:16 PM | Report abuse

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