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White House Cheat Sheet: An Eye on the Economic Home Front



President Obama heads abroad next week but keeps an eye firmly on the economy even while he's gone. AP Photo/Alex Brandon

President Obama will spend most of the next week traveling abroad -- stops in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Germany are all on the schedule -- but his administration is making sure voters know they are keeping their eye on the economic ball by dispatching a series of senior officials across the country to continue the salesmanship of the stimulus plan.

The White House announced on Thursday that it will dispatch eight Cabinet Secretaries to Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin over a three day period next week to "discuss immediate ways the federal government is cutting through red tape to bring relief to auto communities and achieve long term economic revitalization," according to a document from the White House. (Worth noting: all four states are considered swing states at the presidential level and combined reward a whopping 58 electoral votes. Just saying.)

This glut of Cabinet officials -- not to mention sub-Cabinet officials like EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson -- heading to the hinterlands ensures a series of positive headlines on the implementation of the economic recovery act and the administration's work to solve the morass in which the American car industry currently finds itself.

In case reporters are missing the point -- we have a tendency to do that -- the White House has also started to send out daily guidance on activities of administration officials on the stimulus plan; a recent missive noted that Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack would be on C-SPAN (!) to tout the implementation of the bill.

And, Vice President Biden conducted two conference calls with governors and mayors around the country on Thursday to ensure the stimulus money was being smartly spent. (The White House helpfully pointed out that Biden has hosted 46 governors on conference calls to discuss implementation of the stimulus bill so far this year.)

The message from all of this activity? We're on the case.

There's little question that the success of Obama's first term is inextricably linked to the economic policies put in place in the first 100 days of his administration -- the banner achievement being passage of the $787 billion economic stimulus package.

How that plan is perceived will play a critical role in deciding the 2010 midterm elections and will almost certainly be a major factor in Obama's 2012 reelection bid.

Is it an expensive but necessary kick in the pants to a flagging economy? Or a bloated government program based on the flawed idea that throwing more money at things will solve problems?

The Obama administration -- animated, as we have written previously, by a cult of competence -- is doing everything it can to ensure the former perception is the one that takes hold.

Foreign affairs may dominate the short term news coverage over the next week but never forget that the economy is the long-term issue that Obama must get right to keep himself in the White House and his party in control of Congress.

What to Watch For:

Friday's Fix Picks: If Fix Jr. keeps up his current sleep habits, we might not make it to next week.

1. Did Terry McAuliffe try to bribe Ralph Nader?
2. Ethics complaints: 0. Sarah Palin: 13.
3. Roland Burris will announce his re-election plans soon. Um, who cares?
4. Levi Johnston speaks!
5. Susan Boyle and the downside of celebrity.

Dodd on TV: Embattled Sen. Chris Dodd is on television with the first ad of his 2010 reelection race, a commercial featuring President Obama touting the work the Connecticut Democrat did to pass a measure placing strictures on credit card companies. An image of Obama signing the bill at the White House is shown (with Dodd standing in the background) as the president says: "I want to give a special shout-out to Chris Dodd who has been a relentless fighter to get this done." The ad seeks to remind Connecticut Democrats of two things: Dodd is one of them (hence the heavy featuring of the popular president) and that he gets things done for the state. Such early advertising by Dodd is a recognition that his image in the state has taken a number of serious hits and he is in a very tough fight for reelection next November.

Gillibrand Moves to Capitalize on Sotomayor: As predicted in yesterday's Cheat Sheet, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is using the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court to make herself right with the Hispanic community upset at her past positioning on immigration reform. In an email sent to supporters, Gillibrand praises Sotomayor as a "brilliant" and "historic" choice and offers recipients the opportunity to send a congratulatory note to Sotomayor. "Yesterday, I spoke with President Obama about this appointment and I pledge to work diligently to ensure she meets swift confirmation in the Senate," wrote Gillibrand.

Cantor for Whitman: Proving yet again that the California governor's race is the most important race on the ballot in 2010, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.) has waded into the Republican primary on behalf of former eBay president Meg Whitman. "Meg Whitman comes to the public arena with an unbeatable track record of accomplishment, success and the smarts to go with it," Cantor said in a video released by Whitman's campaign on Thursday. Cantor has emerged as one of the few Republicans working to find new leaders in the party -- he is the founder of the National Council for a New America -- and his decision to back Whitman so early (and despite the fact that he faces a primary challenge from state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former Rep. Tom Campbell) is rightly read as a sign that the GOP establishment believe her to be a national star in the making if she can manage to get elected in 2010. Despite the fact that Whitman is extremely wealthy and appears to be willing to spend upwards of $100 million of her own money on the race, getting elected in California will be no easy task. Either state Attorney General Jerry Brown or San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom would start as the favorite against Whitman but her wealth and her business background would give her a fighting chance.

Click It!: C-SPAN has posted a video of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor's full speech at Duke University in 2005 in which she uttered the now famous/infamous line: "the court of appeals is where policy is made." Do yourself a favor and watch it.

DGA Keeps McDonnell Honest: The Democratic Governors Association has launched a new ad -- its third -- hammering Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) as a job killer. The ad, which is being run by Common Sense Virginia, a group funded by the DGA, notes that McDonnell "led the fight" against the Commonwealth taking federal employment funds and voted against "health benefits for unemployed textile workers." Says the ad's narrator: "Bob McDonnell: A Jobs Governor? You've got to be kidding." The ad is part of a continuing attempt by the DGA to ensure that McDonnell doesn't get a free pass on introducing himself to Virginia voters while the three Democratic candidates -- former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe, former state Del. Brian Moran and state Sen. Creigh Deeds -- bash one another in advance of the June 9 primary. (Since Common Sense Virginia was incorporated in mid March, the DGA has dropped nearly $3 million into it.) Polling suggests McDonnell would start the general election with a lead over any of the trio of Democrats.

ICYMI: Scott Hoeflich (chief of staff to Sen. Arlen Specter) and the Post's Date Lab. Was a love connection made?

Mowery Puts Up His Shingle: Dave Mowery, the man who guided Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright to victory in Alabama's 2nd district last year and then elected Todd Strange to Bright's old position earlier this year, is starting his own consulting firm named, appropriately, Mowery Consulting Group. "I have a proven ability to not only raise money but to show candidates how to spend that money in the most effective manner and to win races," said Mowery of his new shop. The firm will be based in Montgomery, joining Democratic pollster John Anzalone in the Cradle of the Confederacy.

Follow Me: Three MSNBC anchors worth following on Twitter via the Fix Twosse -- Melissa Francis, David Shuster and Norah O'Donnell.

Say What?: "He speaks English." -- White House press secretary Robert Gibbs explains Lou Sussman's qualification to serve as Ambassador to Great Britain.

By Chris Cillizza  |  May 29, 2009; 5:37 AM ET
Categories:  Cheat Sheet Share This:  E-Mail | Technorati | Del.icio.us | Digg | Stumble Previous: Sestak Speaks On Strategy
Next: Friday Governors Line: A Waiting Game


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Comments

How much did Obama's "date night" cost the U.S. taxpayers?

Posted by: JakeD | June 1, 2009 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Rest in Peace (RIP) Republicans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! oh thanks RUSH,CHENEY,NEWT,HANNITY,BECK,O'RIELLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Norn Coleman too thanks for making the Republicans a national discrace!!!!

Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014 | June 1, 2009 12:20 PM | Report abuse

economic ? everything this administration has done since taking office has had a negative effect on the economy, but then again,that is what socialist do,to start their agenda. run the economy into the ground,forcing government takeover on private sector along the way,create smoke screens like releasing classified documents,etc.and then when we are at an all time low,watch what happens to the rest of the constitution. some people actually believe the riches will be spread their way,so they will support it till they find out different,and by then it is too late.

Posted by: silusdogood | June 1, 2009 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Madams' Pelosi and Sotomayor have more things in common other than attacks on our constitutional government.Both are democrats and are being tutored by President Oboma to be the pillars of his attack on our constitutional government. Hopefully all three will come under close scrutiny and fail in their conquest to destroy our democratic government and constitution and replace it with socialism.

Posted by: a4853916 | May 31, 2009 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Wisconsin is a swing state?

Posted by: theamazingjex | May 29, 2009 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Boy, not much here in the comments when you skip over the predictable conservative drivel and the responses thereto.

Posted by: nodebris | May 29, 2009 5:47 PM | Report abuse

"dawd, I'd ask for my money back for whatever degree they sent you in the mail."

So in other words, you disagree with my point that other people flipping coins in the room shouldn't affect my coin flip.

I just want to be clear.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 5:32 PM | Report abuse

kouk, it's only you Bushies who get degrees from ads on matchbooks, we liberals do it the hard way, with classes an' books an' stuff.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 5:31 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk:

I wouldn't waste your time on DDAWD (on another thread, he / she urged that polygamy should be legalized).

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 5:19 PM | Report abuse

dawd, I'd ask for my money back for whatever degree they sent you in the mail.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 5:02 PM | Report abuse

"I am saying that only 20% of the current decline happened BEFORE the election, with 80% since -- yes, I am blaming the DJIA really tanking with the realization that a socialist was taking over"

And since the niggger is going to lose in 2012, the forward looking market is rising again. Right? Right?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 4:29 PM | Report abuse

"I made the mistake of reading a few lines of a zouk post without noting the author first. Must work on my time management, because that made NO sense at all."

That's why you read from the bottom up.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 4:27 PM | Report abuse

"for example, the chance of flipping two heads in a row is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 three in a row is 0.25 x 0.5."

Yes, but suppose there are three other people in the room flipping coins. Do those coins alter the outcome of your personal flips?

Because that's pretty much what you're assuming with that stupid car dealership thing.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse

we all become very tribal when it concerns sports teams and mid-term elections.

==

You're nuts. Sports are of any concern whatever to less than 30% of us,

http://www.fugly.net/g8/8401.html

and midterms get virtually none of the enthusiasm of the big four-year puppet show.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse

I differ in opinion - that 2010 will hinge on Obama - we all become very tribal when it concerns sports teams and mid-term elections. I wouldn't be surprised to see an element which would like only to return some degree of party balance to D.C. And, as I always seem to reiterate.. Governors are less important than in the past.. it's sort of like a Senate holding pattern..

Posted by: newbeeboy | May 29, 2009 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Who cares what the financiers say? They're a bunch of worthless parasites who should be put on chain gangs. They contribute nothing to anything and serve only to skim billions they have done nothing to earn. Do the opposite of what they want and you'll never go wrong.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:15 PM | Report abuse

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- They’re back.

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

The 1.5-percentage-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields this year pushed interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to above 5 percent for the first time since before Bernanke announced on March 18 that the central bank would start printing money to buy financial assets. Treasuries have lost 5.1 percent in their worst annual start since Merrill Lynch & Co. began its Treasury Master Index in 1977.

“The bond-market vigilantes are up in arms over the outlook for the federal deficit,” said Edward Yardeni, who coined the term in 1984 to describe investors who protest monetary or fiscal policies they consider inflationary by selling bonds. He now heads Yardeni Research Inc. in Great Neck, New York. “Ten trillion dollars over the next 10 years is just an indication that Washington is really out of control and that there is no fiscal discipline whatsoever.”

Investor Dread

What bond investors dread is accelerating inflation after the government and Fed agreed to lend, spend or commit $12.8 trillion to thaw frozen credit markets and snap the longest U.S. economic slump since the 1930s. The central bank also pledged to buy as much as $300 billion of Treasuries and $1.25 trillion of bonds backed by home loans.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 4:09 PM | Report abuse

I am saying that only 20% of the current decline happened BEFORE the election, with 80% since -- yes, I am blaming the DJIA really tanking with the realization that a socialist was taking over

Posted by our resident nut-case
==

Ah, gotcha, so the reason the DJIA is inching its way up is because The Marketplace, in its vast infallible wisdom, has already forecast that some GOP caveman is going to win in 2012, right?

Go soak your heaD, Jake, you're a complete idiot.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:06 PM | Report abuse

My wife and I are registered Independents here in California, and we will be voting for Whitman.

Posted by: JakeD

==

hahhahah yeah I bet your "wife" is as real as you Stanford law degree, troll.

You'd vote for a dead skunk in the middle of the road if Rush told you to, so who cares? You don't have any mind of your own.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:00 PM | Report abuse

nicholaslerek:

My wife and I are registered Independents here in California, and we will be voting for Whitman.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Blarg:

I am saying that only 20% of the current decline happened BEFORE the election, with 80% since -- yes, I am blaming the DJIA really tanking with the realization that a socialist was taking over -- as someone much wiser than I once said: "the stock market is nothing but a game of perception" ; )

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Whitman has absolutely no chance to be governor of California. The kiss of death was the McCain endorsement. Steve Poizner is the only candidate of either party that has real qualifications to lead the state out of its current state of disaster, and he is the only candidate that can appeal to both Republicans and Democrats.

Posted by: nicholaslerek | May 29, 2009 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Let me guess. a union job. Perhaps watching the other guy dig.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 3:35 PM | Report abuse

No wonder Libs are begging for handouts from the government with financial acumen like this.

==

OK, just this once.

Never collected a federal handout, kouk, always had a job. You on the other hand, judging from the prodigious amount of time you spend here, and judging from the quality of your reasoning, are almost certainly collecting psychiatric disability, so I wouldn't push the "lib" stuff too hard if I were you.

TTFN

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

"the idea that a man who was not even president yet is responsible for its behavior "

No wonder Libs are begging for handouts from the government with financial acumen like this.

Are you and drivl back from the foodstamp line already?

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 3:02 PM | Report abuse

I made the mistake of reading a few lines of a zouk post without noting the author first. Must work on my time management, because that made NO sense at all.

"Tha market" has about as much mind as an Amoeba, and the idea that a man who was not even president yet is responsible for its behavior is the kind of thinking that should get on locked up for 90 days observation.

(twirls finger around left temple)

(slow descending whistle)

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 2:54 PM | Report abuse

So you actually believe that we are to blame bush (chant with me now) for something that happened two weeks before he was elected out of office. I think the forward looking market is designed to accomodate predictions of the future. the future in October was not Bush it was a communist or a socialist. And accordingly, the market responded properly for the situation. and if what you say is correct, that Obama was a shoe in, then the blame lies directly at his water walking feet.

Unless you are going to argue that the market is not forward looking. go ahead. make a lib of yourself.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Zouk: Obama led in national polls for the entire duration of the campaign, except for a brief period in early September. He was well in the lead by October 15.

JakeD: I really don't understand what you're talking about. You seem to be blaming Obama for a drop in the Dow before he was elected, while ignoring that the Dow has increased since he took office.

I think I remember why I don't post here much...

Posted by: Blarg | May 29, 2009 2:37 PM | Report abuse

I'm talking about 80% of the decline being since the election, not the point totals -- only 20% of the time was before -- at some point, Democrats are going to realize that a stalled recovery is indeed Obama's fault.

Posted by: JakeD

==

As usual you exhibit the logical faculties typical of uneducated trailer trash.

First of all, that your figures are wrong has already been documented. Second, even if they were right, you would need to demonstrate that Obama's election and policies were the only factors in play, that no other factors contribute to the stock markets' performance.

And third of all you would need to demonstrate that the stock market is anything other than a game of perception, that it has any relationship to actual value.

You fail again, but then you *are* an idiot.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 2:36 PM | Report abuse

For the record, I am not a member of NAMBLA (only men who have sex with boys are).

Posted by: JakeD

==

Oh, I don't know, Jake, it really wouldn't be a lot more shameful than being a devotee of Sarah Palin.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 2:32 PM | Report abuse


"For the record, I am not a member of NAMBLA (only men who have sex with boys are)."

thou doth protest too much, methinks.

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:29 PM | Report abuse

Peggy Noonan in the rightwing WSJ:

“Let’s play grown-up.” When I was a child, that’s what we said when we ran out of things to do like playing potsie or throwing rocks in the vacant lot. You’d go in and take your father’s hat and your mother’s purse and walk around saying, “Would you like tea?” In retrospect we weren’t imitating our parents but parents on TV, who wore pearls and suits. But the point is we amused ourselves trying to be little adults.

And that’s what the GOP should do right now: play grown-up.

The Democrats in the White House have been doing it since January, operating with a certain decorum, a kind of assumption as to their natural stature. Obamaland is very different from the last Democratic administration, Bill Clinton’s. The cliché is true: White House staffs reflect their presidents. Mr. Clinton’s staff was human, colorful, messy, slightly mad. They had pent-up energy after 12 years of Republican rule, and they believed their own propaganda that Republicans were wicked. They were oafish: One dragooned a government helicopter to go play golf. President Obama’s staff is far less entertaining. They’re smooth, impeccable, sophisticated, like the boss. They don’t hate Republicans but think they’re missing a few chips (empathy, logic, How Things Really Work). It is true they don’t know what they don’t know, but what they do know (how to quietly seize and hold power, for instance—they now run the American auto industry), they know pretty well."

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:24 PM | Report abuse

For the record, I am not a member of NAMBLA (only men who have sex with boys are).

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Blarg:

I'm talking about 80% of the decline being since the election, not the point totals -- only 20% of the time was before -- at some point, Democrats are going to realize that a stalled recovery is indeed Obama's fault.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 2:20 PM | Report abuse


"The nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court has intensified a long-simmering racial divide within the Republican Party.

African-American and Hispanic conservatives who have questioned her judicial philosophy also note the historic nature of the appointment and praise her triumph over economic hardship. White conservatives, on the other hand, have been far more personal and aggressive in their attacks on Sotomayor's record, repeatedly accusing her of "reverse racism" and questioning her intelligence.

"I'm excited that a Hispanic woman is in this position," said Michael Steele on Bill Bennett's radio show Friday. He added that instead of "slammin' and rammin'" on Sotomayor, Republicans should "acknowledge" the "historic aspect" of the selection and stick to a "cogent, articulate argument" against her.

Steele argued that the GOP should not "get painted as a party that's against the first Hispanic woman" picked for the Supreme Court."

hahhaha

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Blarg, look at the data the market uses, not the data krugman et al use. Compare the polling data to the DJI. the fall came the day after messiah pulled ahead of Mac. roughly Oct 15, two weeks before the election. We could call October the month of the impending Obama.

DJI open Oct 1 - 10,831
DJI open Oct 31 - 9,325

The news that Obimbo will probably win - reduce your wealth by 15% - a good indicator.

the month of nov was similar opening at 9325 and closing at 8149, down another 13% - the cost of his actual election.

total loss for electing a Lib - 30% of your wealth.

by March, when the full brunt of liberalism was clear we were down to 6547. a drop of 40%. that hope cost a bundle.

It is hard to imagine that even that dolt McCain could have done this poorly.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Those of you who subscribed to SarahPAC

==

hahahahahah ANOTHER shameful admission.

What's next from you, Jake? Membership in NAMBLA?

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 2:17 PM | Report abuse

not even trying to look for a job, zouk? given up already?

Posted by: drind

==

What kind of job could he get? He has the mind of a child but he's too emotionally unstable to be trusted around children.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 2:14 PM | Report abuse

When will the Democrats wake up and realize that 80% of the stock market decline has occured SINCE the election?

Posted by Flakey Jakey

==

When will you wake up and realize that you don't even have a hallway-nodding acquaintance with reality?

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 2:11 PM | Report abuse

the gop today:

"This just in: Marcus Epstein, executive director of Pat Buchanan’s “The American Cause” and Tom Tancredo’s Team America PAC, and founder of “Youth for Western Civilization,” is going to be sentenced on July 8th for verbally and physically assaulting a black woman in Washington DC in 2007.

According to documents obtained from District of Columbia’s Superior Court, Epstein, 25, must appear before Judge Wendell P. Gardner on July 8 for sentencing after pleading guilty to simple assault charges stemming from an incident during the early evening hours of July 7, 2007. The documents state that Epstein was walking down the street making offensive remarks when he encountered the victim, called her the “N-word” and struck her in her head. He was briefly detained by the woman’s husband, but was able to escape, only to be arrested minutes later by a Secret Service officer who witnessed the attack.

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:06 PM | Report abuse

"When will the Democrats wake up and realize that 80% of the stock market decline has occured SINCE the election?"

Dow Jones Industrial Average:
June 4, 2008: 12392
Election Day: 9324, a 25% drop
Inauguration Day: 8078, a 13% drop
Today: 8415, a 10% drop since Election Day and a 4% rise since Obama took office

The Dow dropped tremendously before the election. Since the election, it's dropped slower. Since the earliest day that Obama's policies could have possibly taken effect, it's gone up. As usual, you're completely and totally wrong.

Posted by: Blarg | May 29, 2009 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Exactly, leapin!

When will the Democrats wake up and realize that 80% of the stock market decline has occured SINCE the election? In fact, the day after the election, the Dow lost 5% in one day and another 5% the day the stimulas bill was signed. The stock market (those who bet on the country's financial future) has soundly shouted a Bronx cheer regarding Obama's economic policies. They still haven't grasped the significance of the TEA Parties yet.

Over 80 million Americans have 401(K)accounts. once they understand why their wealth was destroyed, the Democrats will suffer. As for any specific policies that Obama "inherited" that caused the decline, such as Bush's portion of TARP, how did Senator Obama vote? They all PALE in comparison to what Obama's doing now. Too bad they will never be able to prove that the economy would have done WORSE but for The One ; )

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 1:33 PM | Report abuse

dawd, I think your skills in probability are clearly lacking. It could simply be your ability to explain yourself or it could be lib phobia of facts. I can't tell.

One multiplies independent events to derive the probability of them all occuring simultaneously.

for example, the chance of flipping two heads in a row is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 three in a row is 0.25 x 0.5.

What do you think the probability that you flip 700 coins and get all but one head (Dem). the answer is 0.5^700 = 2 ^-211. Or roughly similar to the probability that chrissuxit or drivl have meaningful conversations with their neighbors.

Of course if the events are not independent, there is a cross term. you may want to emply the cross term to justify the closing of all the R donors while avoiding all but one Lib doner. the odds that this is by accident are astronomical.

did you attend one of those "degree by mail" colleges?

Drivl shows up and proclaims itself sewage. And you thought it had no self-awareness.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 1:33 PM | Report abuse

"Chant after me: " I believe the government motors could close down all Republican doners and no Lib doners while ignoring this aspect"."

First you chant "It makes sense to me that there's a 75% chance of an event occurring, but only a 1% chance of an event occurring 75% of the time. It's ok to believe this since college educated people, Nobel Prize winners, and people with common sense are loony libs."

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 1:18 PM | Report abuse

hundreds of posts by zouk today--wow. frantically typing. must have switched his meds.

not even trying to look for a job, zouk? given up already?

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 1:10 PM | Report abuse

My, the toilet has backed up and sewage has flooded your blog, Mr. Cillizza. Better call Roto-Rooter.

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Obama’s policies really haven’t taken effect yet. This period of time will be seen in the future as a day on the beach. As ignorant families under stress of possible unemployment, shrinking pay checks, and increasing inflation finally take notice the shine will be wearing off Obama. And don’t forget China will own him. This is just the beginning. The result of his lawlessness and tyranny won’t be pretty.

Posted by: leapin | May 29, 2009 12:59 PM | Report abuse

By Tom Blumer (Bio | Archive)
May 29, 2009 - 00:32 ET

Those of us seeking truth in reporting, especially the inconvenient truths about a Democratic presidential administration, are re-learning the lessons of the Clinton Era:

First, that the "newspapers of record," the Associated Press, and the major TV networks (except Fox) are usually the last places you want to go to learn what's really going on, and the first place to visit if you want a rendition of the Democratic-left wing party line.
Second, that some of the best reporting and fact-checking can be found in editorials at the Wall Street Journal and Investors Business Daily.
Third, that the many of the British papers will dig up and expose administration-embarrassing news most of America's newsprint apparatchiks will bury if they find them, and ignore if they can.
In 2009, there is a fourth lesson, which is that much of the investigative reporting vacuum created by the establishment media is being filled by the center-right blogosphere.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 12:38 PM | Report abuse

For eight years conservatives whined — and Democrats railed — at the Bush deficits. In the aggregate over eight years they exceeded $2 trillion. The administration’s excuses — the 2000 recession; 9/11; two wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq; Katrina; and two massive new programs, No Child Left Behind and Medicare Prescription Drug — fell on deaf ears.

Between 2001 and 2008 we still spoke of annual budget shortfalls in billions of dollars. But an early effect of the Obama administration is that it has already made the Bush administration’s reckless spending seem almost incidental. In the first 100 days of this government we have learned to speak of yearly red ink in terms of Obama’s trillions, not Bush’s mere billions. Indeed, compared to Obama, Bush looks like a fiscal conservative.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Well, that does make me angry. It just might work.

-----

"Obama - he's the reason you've got a job you have to go to every day"

Posted by: JohninMpls | May 29, 2009 12:32 PM | Report abuse

As for President Obama, I would like to see him quit chastising George Bush while at the same time carrying forth his policies. Understand, I approve of those policies, which have helped safeguard America for nearly eight years. But, saying one thing while doing another may fool some of the people some of the time, and fool Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann all of the time, but it doesn’t make Obama look superior to the ex-president; it merely makes him look petty and deceitful.

Furthermore, I would suggest that Barack Obama quit telling us that everything he says and does garners us great respect in the world community. The majority of that community is made up of lunatics and gangsters, and most Americans don’t want to gain the love and admiration of North Korea, Russia, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Venezuela, Syria, Iran, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey, Yemen or Indonesia. It would be nice, though, if they were at least a little bit afraid of us.


It’s easy, I would tell the president, to mouth all the usual cliches and be lauded by the various hand puppets and hand maidens at MSNBC and the New York Times, but being politically correct is, unfortunately, not the same thing as being correct politically.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 12:24 PM | Report abuse

The O-Team proffer of "quiet discussions" with the Taliban has yielded a spring "jihad," which threatens to overwhelm the Pakistani army and put Islamabad's nuclear arsenal at risk. In Mesopotamia, the "date certain" withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraqi cities has precipitated a spike in grisly suicide bombings and the highest American casualty counts in more than a year.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 12:18 PM | Report abuse

On March 20, in a "video message" to the people of Iran, Mr. Obama offered Tehran "a new beginning" and stated, "My administration is now committed to diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues before us." Secretary of State Hillary Clinton followed up April 8, promising that the U.S. would be a "full participant" with Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China in renewed talks with the Iranians on that "full range of issues."

The Iranian response to these "new openings" should have been instructive. On May 20, just hours after an Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the ayatollahs replied to Mr. Obama's "outstretched hand" and offers of face-to-face bilateral meetings by launching a 1,200-mile-range, solid fuel Sajjil-2 ICBM. Five days later, Iran rejected further talks with anyone regarding its nuclear program.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 12:16 PM | Report abuse

vbhoomes writes
"Let me get this right,you do not believe printing massive amounts of money will not cause inflation once the recovery kicks in. Couple that with unsustainable spending and borrowing, you have a recipe for economic disaster down the road."


There you go again...

I don't dispute that maintaining current policy indefinitely would produce the results you describe. What I dispute is that anyone is planning to continue current policy indefinitely. The President, Fed Chairman Bernanke & Treasury Sec Geithner are fully aware of the dangers you're describing and will adjust fiscal policy accordingly when necessary.

Perhaps you haven't noticed, but unemployment has continued to rise, and the credit markets continue to be tight. For an economy in which consumers account for 70% of activity, these are critical factors that have to be addressed before we can credibly think we're past the bottom. Yes, inflation is a worry, but its not the primary worry right now.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 29, 2009 12:05 PM | Report abuse

you'd think with with so many Nobel prize winners in their stable (Kruggman, Gore, Carter) the Libs could figure at least one thing out correctly.

you'd think but you'd be mistaken. Seems the Nobel prize is now some sort of beauty contest.


It was always suspect since there is no prize for Math.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 11:53 AM | Report abuse

GLOBE-TROTTING, ECON CRISIS MANAGING...

BUT WHEN WILL TEAM OBAMA RESTORE CIVIL AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN A GRASSROOTS AMERICA WHERE OFFICIALLY-SANCTIONED 'VIGILANTE (IN)JUSTICE' RULES?


The questionable legality and constitutionality of covert, warrantless GPS tracking of unjustly targeted persons and their families FINALLY has broken through to the mainstream media:


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090525/ap_on_re_us/us_gps_police


This is the Achilles heel that can bring down the technological infrastructure of organized stalking and constitutionally suspect police procedures in conducting investigations of "innocent but targeted" individuals and their families.

Mainstream media: Please follow up on the Yahoo News story referenced above.

Civil libertarians: Urge lawmakers to pass a law that prevents the electronic tracking of any individual without an individual-specific (not general) court order -- no more arbitrary, wholesale electronic surveillance and no more covert implantation of devices in vehicles or homes.

This is the issue that the public can understand. Once covert implantation of GPS devices -- or the use of an individual's cell phone as a GPS tracking device -- is definitively made illegal, any official who knowingly allows such surveillance would be an accomplice to a crime. This should be a felony and not a misdemeanor ("harassment," under the law, is a misdemeanor, which is why unjustly targeted American citizens should use the term "torture," or "psychological torture," for non-physical harassment.

Victims of the "extrajudicial targeting and punishment network" spawned or expanded under Bush-Cheney (and now enabled by the inaction of the Obama Administration):

Organize a mass demonstration demanding an end to "covert GPS stalking". Such a demonstration should be aimed at the ACLU -- a demand that these declared civil libertarians address the issue that enables organized stalking of unjustly targeted people and their families.

For more:

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

OR (if link is corrutped / disabled):

http://NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | May 29, 2009 11:51 AM | Report abuse

vbhoomes:

On top of that, the Fed will be extremely reluctant to raise interest rates which will only exacerbate inflation. If that happens, there's no way Obama gets re-elected.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 11:48 AM | Report abuse

BSIMON: Let me get this right,you do not believe printing massive amounts of money will not cause inflation once the recovery kicks in. Couple that with unsustainable spending and borrowing, you have a recipe for economic disaster down the road. I would like to be hopeful for the economic future, but facts have a tendency of getting in the way of a rosy future.

Posted by: vbhoomes | May 29, 2009 11:40 AM | Report abuse

I understand that it is all about belief and not FACT with you libs. As in I believe in global warming, I believe in hope, I believe in change, I believe the press is doing its job, I believe Obama is our savior, etc. I believe NK will live up to its agreements, I believe Iran is only interested in harmless nuke power, I believe ACORN is honest, I believe Illinois is clean, I believe the US military is a force for evil, etc.

But I never expect Libs to follow any math.
Their MO is more along the lines of changing the definitions of words when required.


Chant after me: " I believe the government motors could close down all Republican doners and no Lib doners while ignoring this aspect".

"I believe that moving the freedom fighters at the cuban sunshine resort for manmade disaster implementers to colorado fundamentally changes everything."

I believe Holywood stars know alot about politics.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 11:31 AM | Report abuse

vbhoomes writes
"Obamas policies will make our economic outlook down the road extremely dark. ... I fear a recovery more than I do a Great Depression."

The pollyannas that, last year, were saying the fundamentals of the economy were strong are now the most cynical bunch out there. Its an economic form of bipolar disorder.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 29, 2009 10:33 AM | Report abuse

"Friday's Fix Picks: If Fix Jr. keeps up his current sleep habits, we might not make it to next week."

Just wait until he's 2 and puking real food onto you.

"1. Did Terry McAuliffe try to bribe Ralph Nader?
2. Ethics complaints: 0. Sarah Palin: 13.
3. Roland Burris will announce his re-election plans soon. Um, who cares?
4. Levi Johnston speaks!
5. Susan Boyle and the downside of celebrity."


What's this tripe; is Friday the day the Fix impersonates the Nat'l Enquirer?


.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 29, 2009 10:28 AM | Report abuse

"Dawd. I had to take a whole semester of non-parametric for just that reason. "

Dude, after that nonsense you posted yesterday, I refuse to believe that you've used a statistics book even as a paperweight.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Not saying he is right, in fact, I am afraid of inflation. If I were rich I would short the dollar.

He is, however, laying out the issue as primarily political, which seems an interesting point. But maybe everything is political economy, so the point is trivial.

After all, politics is how we transact power between one another and that is what money is for. Money is stored value and there is no commodity quite as fungible as power.

Posted by: shrink2 | May 29, 2009 9:18 AM | Report abuse

Kruggman has accurately predicted 40 of the last 3 recessions.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 9:11 AM | Report abuse

Dawd. I had to take a whole semester of non-parametric for just that reason.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 9:08 AM | Report abuse

shrink2:

9/11 was "unprecedented" too, and Krugman has been wrong before.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 9:03 AM | Report abuse

nk up to six missiles and a nuke test
This week. Plus a revocation of the armistice.

Obambis cowering, scraping and apologizing is starting to pay off.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 9:03 AM | Report abuse

Today's installment of Zookian Statistics 101.

The hazards of adequate sample size: A small N is a good N.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:58 AM | Report abuse

vbhoomes:

Good points. The only thing worse than Obama's "stimulus" plan failing would be if he succeeds. I don't believe he doesn't "want to run U.S. companies" anymore than Biden thinks he's in trouble for breaking TOTUS.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 8:57 AM | Report abuse

Over at the NYT, Paul Krugman this morning says there is no risk of inflation in the midst of a recession and the risk of "hyper inflation" down the road has no precendent in developed economies (America is not Zimbabwe, nor the Weimar Republic, apparantly).

He says the risk we face now is from those who sell the fear of inflation. Selling fear, now that is a new idea.


Posted by: shrink2 | May 29, 2009 8:55 AM | Report abuse

preview of moonbat drivl and chrissuxit show today:

Four legs good, two legs bad.

Stay tuned.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 8:55 AM | Report abuse

vbhoomes: Thanks for your service to the country. I understand and share your feeling of unease because of the rogue potential of the nations listed (NK, Iran). But the Soviet Union had thousands of missiles surely capable of pummeling the Globe. I think we simply disagree on the stability of the Soviet Union leadership. But that is neither here nor there.
I see the NK nuclear threat as an opportunity for the US and China to work together to limit NK's reach and progress. Hopefully, if the US and China can find common foreign policy ground and work to achieve it, real results can be made.

Posted by: jnoel002 | May 29, 2009 8:52 AM | Report abuse

Michigan and Ohio are also looking to lose EV.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:43 AM | Report abuse

Those of you who subscribed to SarahPAC would already have known she's been cleared on all of those ethics complaints, with just a few frivolous ones left. The FCC also ruled there was no violation over her wardrobe "scandal" either.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Those of you who subscribed to SarahPAC would already have known she's been cleared on all of those ethics complaints, with just a few frivolous ones left. The FCC also ruled there was no violation over her wardrobe "scandal" either.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 8:39 AM | Report abuse

JakeD:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4190

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013049.html

According to the first link, Missouri looks to be losing one EV. No mention of Indiana.

The links are from December. I don't know if there's anything more recent out there.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:39 AM | Report abuse

jnoe1012: It is not easy for me to forget the cold war as I served in the military from 1976-1996. I was with the cruise missiles deployment in Europe at the height of the Cold War. But back then we did not have a nuclear armed NK or Iran soon to be a nuclear armed state. The Soviet Union for all of its ills were very rational. I do not have the same comfort with a nutjob in NK and religious extremists in Iran who believe it is their calling to murder millions. If your not afrid, you haven't been paying attention. I surely do not blame Obama for the current world situation but I fear his naivete could cause NK or Iran to miscalulate.

Posted by: vbhoomes | May 29, 2009 8:33 AM | Report abuse

P.S. to Chris (or anyone else with a crystal ball):

Will those states really have 58 Electoral Votes next time? I thought that projections were that Indiana and Wisconsin will each lose one EV?

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 8:29 AM | Report abuse

"I fear a recovery more than I do a Great Depression. "

Is this the new Republican talking point? To take success and call it failure? Sounds very Rovian. Anyone see this on FOX news? This is the first I'm seeing that a depression is preferable to recovery. Let's see how they parlay this into a campaign.

"Obama - he's the reason you've got a job you have to go to every day"

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:27 AM | Report abuse

"On substance, we are already seeing signs of inflation kicking in"

Man, you Republicans REALLY need to keep some college grads in the fold. After embarrassing yourselves yesterday over statistics, now you are making a mockery of your understanding of economics.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:23 AM | Report abuse

The world has never been more dangerous in my liftetime.
Posted by: vbhoomes | May 29, 2009 7:58 AM

Really? More dangerous than during the Cold War? I think it is easy to forget how dangerous a situation existed with the former Soviet Union. The U.S. is still the sole "super-power", unless you count China, but I think that's premature.

Posted by: jnoel002 | May 29, 2009 8:21 AM | Report abuse

Independent4tw:

We taxpayers spend over $2 BILLION per year flying the White House all over the world. During this economic crisis, cutting back on that would make sense and could be used as a positive selling point. If video-conferencing was not possible, stick to world leaders coming here in person.

As I said, that was simply my first objection. On substance, we are already seeing signs of inflation kicking in and interest rates are going to start rising too. Obama's economic "stimulus" plan will fail.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 8:20 AM | Report abuse

Ohh, goody! Does this mean a new round of Paris Hilton ads?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:13 AM | Report abuse

First of all, Obama is not doing "everything" he can on the economic homefront (notwithstanding YOUR best efforts to portray it that way): he's going to Egypt, Germany, and Saudi Arabia.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 7:24 AM
--------------
Sounds like someone thinks the President can only handle what problem at a time...Welcome to the new and improved POTUS and forget the one we had for the last 8 years.

Posted by: Independent4tw | May 29, 2009 8:09 AM | Report abuse

Obamas policies will make our economic outlook down the road extremely dark. After violating bankrupty laws about who is 1st in line(secured creditors vs unsecure creditors)and printing money like it was monopoly money, I fear a recovery more than I do a Great Depression. Simply no way we will not suffer hugh inflation and people living on fixed incomes will have the rug pulled out from underneath them. Plus without national security, the economy will nosedive at the 1st sign of global conflict. The world has never been more dangerous in my liftetime.

Posted by: vbhoomes | May 29, 2009 7:58 AM | Report abuse

The stimulus may be having some positive effect on the economy, but the White House needs to stop pulling pro-stimulus data out of the air. No one knows how many jobs were saved or created because of the stimulus, just as no one knows how much money has already been sent from the pile.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: parkerfl1 | May 29, 2009 7:41 AM | Report abuse

First of all, Obama is not doing "everything" he can on the economic homefront (notwithstanding YOUR best efforts to portray it that way): he's going to Egypt, Germany, and Saudi Arabia.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 7:24 AM | Report abuse

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