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Daily Fix Poll: What's the most likely leadership scenario for Congress?

By Felicia Sonmez

According to political handicappers, a Republican House majority is well within reach this November -- and a Senate takeover may be on the table as well.

For the first time this cycle, the Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook projected this morning that Republicans will pick up at least 40 seats enough for the GOP to reclaim the House majority.

The Cook Report's amped-up projection came on the heels of a change on Monday by another prominent handicapper, Stu Rothenberg, who upped his prediction of Republican pick-ups in the House to 37-42 seats.

Late last week, University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato projected that Republicans will pick up 47 seats in the House.

All three handicappers project that in the Senate, Republicans will fall just shy of winning a majority. Rothenberg predicts that Republicans are likely to gain 6 to 8 seats, Cook projects a net Republican pick-up of 7 to 9 seats and Sabato predicts a Republican gain of 8 to 9.

History may play a role in whether one (or both) chambers flip. As Sabato points out, the House has flipped six times since World War II -- and never without the Senate also flipping.

Whether or not things shift in Democrats' or Republicans' favor over the next 56 days is open to debate. Republicans contend that they have the wind at their backs, especially in light of the still-struggling economy.

Meanwhile, the White House is proposing plans this week for $50 billion in new infrastructure spending as well as a package of tax breaks for businesses, two initiatives that Democrats believe will aid them as they seek to win over voters on the economy.

We're putting it up to Fixistas -- what's the most likely scenario for Congress after this November? Will Republicans take the House, the Senate, both, or neither?

By Felicia Sonmez  | September 7, 2010; 12:56 PM ET
Categories:  Daily Fix Poll  
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