Daily Fix Poll: Will Democrats lose the House?
By Felicia Sonmez
Handicapper after handicapper is predicting not just losses for House Democrats this fall but a potential return to a Republican House majority.
University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato projected this morning that the GOP will net 47 seats in the House this November, eight more than necessary to regain power.
TIME's Mark Halperin said last week that Republicans could take as many as 60 seats in the House if circumstances remained basically as is in the political world.
As the Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook notes, 32 Democratic incumbents currently trail Republican challengers in public and private polling. At the same point in the 2006 cycle, one-third as many Republican incumbents were in the same position.
Add to that this week's Gallup poll showing Republicans with an unprecedented lead in the generic ballot test and the next 60 days look grim indeed for Democrats.
On the other hand, some prognosticators see less sweeping GOP gains. The Rothenberg Political Report projects a net gain of 28 to 33 seats for Republicans, although gains of more than 40 seats "are quite possible."
How big will Republicans' gains be this fall? Are Democrats likely to hold onto the House? Give us your predictions below.
| September 2, 2010; 2:19 PM ET
Categories: Daily Fix Poll
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