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Democrats slip but still dominate in party affiliation

Screen shot 2010-02-01 at 11.54.13 AM.png

New data out of Gallup shows that Democratic party affiliation has shrunk in 39 states over the past year but the party still retains a considerable edge in the overall partisan makeup of the country.

The Democratic edge has narrowed by five points or more in 14 states, according to the numbers, which take a year's worth of daily tracking polls to produce their results, released today by Gallup.

The biggest shrinkage -- with apologies to George Costanza -- came in Ohio where Democrats had an 18-point self-identification advantage in 2008 and just a 10-point margin in 2009.

That erosion should be of serious concern to Democrats as the Buckeye State will play host to a very competitive governor's race as well as an open seat Senate contest this fall.

Other states with significant losses in terms of Democratic affiliation advantages included: Hawaii (a seven point Democratic decline), Louisiana (-7), Montana (-7), Iowa (-6), Maine (-6), Vermont (-6), and Wisconsin (-6).

Massachusetts, the state that shook the political world when it sent Sen-elect Scott Brown (R) to a victory in a Jan. 19 special election, saw Democrats' affiliation edge slip by five points between 2008 and 2009.

\While Democrats saw their party ID leads shrink, they generally maintained their edge in party affiliation numbers in the states.

Twenty three states were ranked by Gallup as solidly Democratic -- meaning Democrats had a party affiliation edge of ten or more points -- while just four states were scored as solidly Republican. Ten states were ranked as Democratic leaning (a Democratic affiliation advantage of between five and ten points) while just a single Republican state fell into that category.

Count it up and you have 33 states where Democrats have a five point (or higher) party affiliation advantage compared to just five states where Republicans' ID edge is greater than five points.

A look at the 12 so-called swing states -- neither party with an affiliation edge of five or more points -- in the Gallup data shows the limits of using party affiliation alone to determine competitiveness.

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) carried every one of the dozen "swing" states in the Gallup data and he won half of them by double digits. Why, then would they be seen as competitive in terms of party affiliation? Because in nearly every one of the states -- particularly those in the South -- there are large numbers of voters who identify as Democrats but who vote strongly Republican. That's how a state like Oklahoma, which went for McCain by 22 points in 2008, could have a single-point affiliation advantage for Democrats.

Take the numbers above then cum grano salis. But, viewed broadly -- as its best to look at data like this -- the Gallup data seems to provide evidence that despite the significant political shift toward Republicans in the last year (or so) Democrats continue to hold a built-in advantage heading into the next national election in 2012.

The trend line, however, is clearly moving in the wrong direction for Democrats -- an erosion that, if it continues, could hamstring President Barack Obama as he prepares to seek a second term in 2012.

By Chris Cillizza  |  February 1, 2010; 11:58 AM ET
Categories:  Democratic Party , Republican Party  
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Next: Should Charlie Crist run as an independent in Florida's Senate race?

Comments

Noacoler:

First, and this is said seriously, so where DO we go look for jobs? Please do a good deed and tell us where we go to find jobs in this day and age of a thousand different ways to advertise, (internet, online papers, job search engines, which have LOOOONG since been discredited, <- now you talk about people knowing where to find out personal information!)

Now, for my derision:

A) Just how in the HECK is "theyre burglars looking foe houses likely to have a lit of Stuff" supposed to work? (You taught a class and can't spell for squat?) They somehow mysteriously know I got a job and the house is empty 9-5 for sure and for true, Mon-Fri, right? Interesting, when any job around here puts the term "swing shift" into the most garish of descriptions! (Wal Mart, et al, have not one ounce of problem asking you to work until midnight, only to turn around and ask you to work at 6 am the next morning NO MATTER WHERE YOU LIVE OR HOW FAR YOU HAVE TO DRIVE TO AND FROM, and the time it takes. On top of that, Target schedules you until closing...and THEN you straighten up every single department after that, where the floor folks KNOW that the cashiers will be done by closing, (if not before) so they can slack back and the cashiers will cover their behinds, up until 4 am @ xmas and if I'm lying, I'm dying.

As for B) Mr. Cilliza being a slavish Republican, parroting their party line, HA!! Have you watched Keith Olbermann lately? That man wouldn't put someone on there who disagreed where a single strand of his HAIR should lay, much less have the very slightest of dissenting opinions. Well, I sure see Mr. Cilliza on Countdown and, for all I watch Fox too, I've never ONCE seen him on there, at least since the aforementioned Mr. Olbermann took to calling me the most horrid of names for having the temerity of LIKING my insurance and not wanting to lose it. I'm racist, I'm a neo-nazi, I'm a right wing terrorist, I'm a paid shill for my insurance company, (I wish!), ad nauseum. Belive me, Mr. Cilliza is either neutral and valuable for his knowledge or he's as left wing as they come. You don't know too much do you??

BTW, limpbrains, every. single. job. we've EVER gotten, (me since 1977, my better half since 1975), has been through the paper. Ignoramus. Where the heck ELSE are we supposed to get them from? The neighborhood diner's menu? And you taught a CLASS on this??? Yeah, tell me another one, I could use a good laugh. Ain't been too many around to find lately.

Posted by: annathule | February 2, 2010 7:14 PM | Report abuse

Its funny how family ties and religion can cause you to register to be a democrat and keep that affiliation long after you've ceased voting for Democrats for elective office. I remember a conversation with a Roman Catholic Aunt in the 80s, after I told her I had changed my registration to Republican, in which she said "and you just tell anybody that"! Of course she's long since admitted she hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Lyndon Johnson. With the mess the Democratic Congress has created the last 3 years while they've had control, and the disater of the last year with Democrats in control of the White House and Congress, I wouldn't be too secure with affiliation numbers. Not with even MA giving up on them in disgust!

Posted by: valwayne | February 2, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

"You forget Hispanics, Blacks, White Liberals, Gays and Jews are solid Blue.

And in 2016 those Groups will become the MAJORITY in the USA according to the US Census Bureau.

How sad for the GOP, but then again, that's life!"


I think it is foolhardy to think all these groups are devout goosesteppers for the Democratic machine.

Personally, I think the mafioso of BOTH political parties are in trouble, from voters regardless of ethnicity, ideology, or sexual orientation.

Posted by: bot_feeder | February 2, 2010 2:29 PM | Report abuse

Earth to noacoaler:

ALL political analysts are in agreement that the Democrats are slipping and the Republicans are gaining in the polls.


But I guess you are one of those people that, when faced with the fact that reality fails to coincide with the way you wish it were, you simply deny the real world exists and retreat to that world that exists only in your own mind and that of likeminded whack jobs.

Posted by: bot_feeder | February 2, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Earth to noacoaler:

ALL political analysts are in agreement that the Democrats are slipping and the Republicans are gaining in the polls.


But I guess you are one of those people that, when faced with the fact that reality fails to coincide with the way you wish it were, you simply deny the real world exists and retreat to that world that exists only in your own mind and that of likeminded whack jobs.

Posted by: bot_feeder | February 2, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Now when you factor in independents, this map really gets topsy-turvy!

Posted by: warhawk911 | February 2, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

jaigeebee: hope you're not laboring under the misapprehension that Cillizza is a reporter. He may have been one once but sine the election he gave all that up. Now he's a steno for the RNC, faithfully printing their shabby lies as straight news.

In this colum. Republicans are always on the ascent, Democrats are always in trouble, boring people like Pawlenty are exciting (and they get adoring nicknames), Palin is a serious contender, even fat southernor Haley Barbour elicits hyperventilation.

And the comments are a safe haven fir racists whose own families are embarrassed by them.

We get cherry-picked polls, even cherry-picked questions within polls. Anything, absolutely anything, to create the impression that Republicans are a legitimate political party, however false that impression may be.

I'm sure he's a loyal Republican with no regard for the state of his nation but the core reason for his slavish devotion is probably the excitement of access to famous people.

And attaboys.

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 11:25 PM | Report abuse

ya know chris . this blog was one sided(extremely) it's funny how you can tell a winning story as though it's failing. All it shows is what you want to happen. And after listening for a few weeks, i see that the right gets hyped up off itself.The right was in-charge. They did not have the country or it's peoples interests at heart,(only greed, as is always the case with Republicans),and they wrecked the economy miserably. One month after they get out of office suddenly, they know exactly what to do. ha ha ha this is laughable, and that. . . is the case! At best it makes them look incapable,confused, unstable and not having the interests of the people at heart. Also their creditability is becoming worse by the minute. Sarah Palin for president? ha ha ha yeah that should make everyone sleep really good at night. What you expect to get from a venom spitting crusade may very well be a backlash!Intelligent people are quietly watching and listening to the smallest party rant and rave in hopes that they can confuse the issue and someone will believe them! you have no shame!

Posted by: jaigeebee | February 1, 2010 10:16 PM | Report abuse

I can't believe that Obama was talking tough to the Republicans today -


Obama said "If they are going to do alot of grandstanding while the television camera are rolling, I am going to reject it"


WELL, AT THAT MOMENT, WASN'T IT OBAMA DOING THE GRANSTANDING IN FRONT OF THE TELEVISION CAMERAS ???


HOW MUCH OF A HYPOCRITE CAN THE GUY BE ???


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 6:37 PM | Report abuse

annathule: sorry to read about your husband's job search but... the classifieds weren't a good place to find work back when I was teaching career classes 20 years ago and they're worse now.

Most classifieds for anything above labor are either jobs already wired for an existing employee or theyre burglars looking foe houses likely to have a lit of Stuff.

Good luck.

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

A fact which impacts some of these stats, (not "states", stats), and I ONLY know about MD, but if you choose to remain "Independent", you CANNOT vote in the primaries. Would you want some chowder head picking your final choice w/o fighting at least as hard as you can to get your guy/gal into the running, to even stand a chance? *I* would be an "I", not an R or a D, except for that fact alone.

However, I can tell you, with all this crep going on and getting lied to and scared half to death about SOMEthing every single day, I've switched MY affiliation and how was it someone put it? "Hopey McChange" OR "Angry McBlame"? (cute!) Well, whomever he decides to be today, he ain't gonna like which way I went. Note to Prez: You can only keep your health care plan IF your employer, (or state in our case), decides to KEEP said plan. Given MD, a state stretched to the uttermost limits and beyond in their budget, do you sensibly think that they'll keep their pensioner's insurance when "so many other options are available"? We tend to be a pretty expensive lot, ya know. Give MD half a chance and we'll be SO outta here, we won't even leave a streak of light as we go.

Not to mention, for the first time in my husband's 52 years on this earth, he has NOT found a job within 2 weeks of leaving, (intentionally or not), the job he just had. He has 3 careers to pick from, and he's open to working doing just about anything at this point, and for any amount. I sure wish it was one of OUR papers that had "more want ads" in it! You couldn't line a bird cage w/ the amount of paper consumed by our want ads! When "more jobs" hits our neck of the woods, then I'll start thinking Hopey McChange stands a chance of pulling the same miracle out of his hat, at least in Western MD anyway. Too many folks in central MD count on his continued existence to vote him, or any of his cronies, out of office. Won't happen. You just can't sensibly use MD, northern VA or even the eastern panhandle of WV or south central PA to judge which way the rest of the country will go and Mr. Cilliza, you should know that. Too many people depend on DC and the same old folks staying in the same old offices for THEIR continued employment.

As per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics...

"Lies, [dam*ed] lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions." OK, so I'm guilty, but so is everyone else either taking these polls OR interpreting them. When the rubber hits the road is where we'll earn the real truth and not until then.

Posted by: annathule | February 1, 2010 6:04 PM | Report abuse

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | February 1, 2010 5:41 PM | Report abuse

Chris!

I'm shocked, SHOCKED that a clean, decent fellow like you would allude to such a revolting, off-colour episode of the much-lamented Seinfeld programme!

May I suggest lots of HOT baths for the D.s in future as a way to circumvent 'shrinkage'? ;-)

[Dirndl, THAT is what sarcasm looks like!]

Posted by: sverigegrabb | February 1, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the cite drindl. Amother one of thos grass roots guys behind the Tea Party turns out to be a brave protector of corporate interests. Luntz is as good as the Pied Piper.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | February 1, 2010 5:12 PM | Report abuse

NONE of this party affiliation map means much of anything

The democrats are headed for a MAJOR DISASTER THIS FALL.

What is worse, the Republicans appear poised to take over the Senate in 2012 at the latest - due to the seats up for election in 2012.


OK those may be strong statements, BUT LOOK AT THOSE MAPS.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 4:48 PM | Report abuse

Wow - I did not realize that Colorado was so far off in this direction:


Rasmussen has Michael Bennett behind the Republican by 12 points.

OK

Wow - the battlefield really looks like it will shift to Wisconsin and Indiana - and maybe New York.


In New York it depends who the candidates are - and remember there is a Governor's race going on there.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

What you'll see next:

Last Saturday, at the lobbyist-organized GOP retreat, President Obama called out GOP strategist Frank Luntz for pursuing tactics meant to simply “box in Obama” rather than pursue substantive policy debate. True to form, Luntz has released a new memo — obtained by the Huffington Post — which lays out the arguments and language Republicans should use to kill financial reform. Luntz, who gained national recognition for his role in shaping the buzzword-heavy Contract for America with Newt Gingrich in 1994, has built a sizable business selling his messaging advice to both corporations and Republican campaigns.
The new memo instructs opponents of financial reform to simply lie about reform legislation, and to twist economic anxiety resulting from the recession into fear of any government effort to fix the underlying cause of the financial crisis. The most dishonest argument is that financial reform would “punish” taxpayers while rewarding “big banks and credit card companies.” In reality, top financial industry lobbyists are not only fighting proposed oversight regulations, but have said recently that they are opposed to “any regulation” at all.

Luntz, ever the publicity hound, leaks his memos out to the media to claim credit for the Republican charge against reforming Wall Street. While he is certainly a driving force behind much of the GOP misinformation, a closer look at his client list reveals that he is in fact being paid by the finance industry:

– Luntz client Ameriquest Mortgages: The proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) would eliminate predatory mortgages. Ameriquest, America’s “sub-prime leader,” has been prosecuted by Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for inflating property values so borrowers could get bigger loans, imposing upfront fees without reducing interest rates as promised, and intentionally deceiving lenders with hidden penalties and interest rates on final loan documents.

– Luntz clients Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns: Under proposed financial reform, big banks, like Luntz clients Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, would face a new structure designed to police financial products, prohibit predatory ones, and require clear forms and disclosures. The CFPA would also help regulate hidden bank fees and other bank abuses.

– Luntz client American Express: The CFPA would regulate the credit card industry, preventing predatory interest rates and fees.

Posted by: drindl | February 1, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

"You are making a whole bunch of assertions, half of which I don't agree with. And I have to sit here and listen to them."


- Quote from Obama at a meeting in which Obama was attempting to demonstrate how bipartisan he is.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Wow for a "disinterested" booby hatchmate you suuuuure spend a lot of time here, what with maintaining dozens of monikers and posting frantically 365 days a year, all day long.

Go insult one of your nurses

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Agreed; We're a long way from being out of the woods. But if finding a job starts getting easier & wages stop falling (or even start rising), the playing field in Nov will look different than it might appear today. The pundits/prognosticators tend to predict future election outcomes based on what exists today rather than thinking about how the environment might look in the future & how that will impact voters.

===

Timing is important. Bush 41 was rather bitter at having lost the election due to a recession that had already ended. This fails to take into the account that he'd been accurately painted as out of touch with the domestic economy.

One could easily foresee job growth occurring a bit too late in the year to do the Dems much good in 2010.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | February 1, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

Ped, go inflate a friend. I'm not interested.

Posted by: drivl | February 1, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

I'll take someone who can do arithmetic over someone who "understands economics" any day.

Economics is a useless pseudoscience

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 3:16 PM | Report abuse

I am pretty sure those over-educated, Ivy league, arugula lovers in MA knew what they were doing.

It is not easy to maintain your brain on suicidal liberal cruise control any longer. In fact even the loons on the Fix have been sputtering lately.

berry, like edwards, has been exposed for the fraud he is.

How impetuous of americans to notice.

Perhaps someday, when Hopey McChange reverts back from Angry McBlame, his mystique will return. Until then it would be nice to understand economics for a CHANGE.

Posted by: drivl | February 1, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

Since Friday, ABC has devoted 60 minutes and 23 seconds to interviews covering the most salacious details of John Edwards' scandal. Yet, the network's anchors have refrained from referring to him as a Democrat. 20/20 on Friday spent the entire hour talking to Andrew Young, a former top Edwards aide who allegedly holds a tape involving the politician. The D-word was never used by reporter Bob Woodruff.

==

kinda like Christie, McDonnell, and Brown shied away from the R word.

Do you wonder?

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

BTW: If you go to the Department of Education website, ALL of the red states rank at the BOTTOM in the per capita number of:

1. College Graduates
2. High School Graduates

==

but they rank at the top in

1) obesity
2) addictions
3) porn consumption

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 2:57 PM | Report abuse

sliowa1 writs
"I agree with your point that R should not be all that gleeful especially if you look at the map. However, last month alone I believe 600,000 stopped looking for employment hence why the unemployment figure stayed steady at 10%. There will be a whole lot of jobs to fill to start making a dent into unemployment/under-employment figure. With that said, its good to see manufactures picking up again."


Agreed; We're a long way from being out of the woods. But if finding a job starts getting easier & wages stop falling (or even start rising), the playing field in Nov will look different than it might appear today. The pundits/prognosticators tend to predict future election outcomes based on what exists today rather than thinking about how the environment might look in the future & how that will impact voters.

.

Posted by: bsimon1 | February 1, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

Bismon,

“News out of the upper midwest today is twofold:
1) job openings (i.e. want ads) are increasing
2) survey of manufacturers points to economic growth in next 3 to 6 months.

I agree with your point that R should not be all that gleeful especially if you look at the map. However, last month alone I believe 600,000 stopped looking for employment hence why the unemployment figure stayed steady at 10%. There will be a whole lot of jobs to fill to start making a dent into unemployment/under-employment figure. With that said, its good to see manufactures picking up again.

Posted by: sliowa1 | February 1, 2010 2:44 PM | Report abuse

REMEMBER MASSACHUSETTS. PARTY AFFILIATION MEANS LITTLE WHEN PARTY LOYALISTS GET DISILLUSIONED. EXAMPLE:

Veteran Journalist Asks Justice Dept. Civil Rights Division:

'THOUSANDS ARE TERRORIZED, PHYSICALLY HARMED BY HOMELAND-SPAWNED, POLICE-PROTECTED MULTI-AGENCY GESTAPO...

..IS THAT WHY NO AUTHORITIES WILL INVESTIGATE?'

• Thousands of Americans unconstitutionally targeted, slandered, sabotaged and silently tortured and impaired by Bush-legacy "multi-agency program" that continues to persecute and physically assault.

Why is the Obama administration COVERING UP A BUSH-SPAWNED AMERICAN GENOCIDE?

• Bucks County, PA- based MAGLOCLEN mid-Atlantic "fusion center" -- Ground Zero of a Police-Protected American Gestapo.

http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-silently-tortures-americans-cell-tower-microwaves
http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america OR www.NowPublic.com/scrivener (see "stories" list) OR www.poynter.org/subject.asp?id=2

Posted by: scrivener50 | February 1, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Since Friday, ABC has devoted 60 minutes and 23 seconds to interviews covering the most salacious details of John Edwards' scandal. Yet, the network's anchors have refrained from referring to him as a Democrat. 20/20 on Friday spent the entire hour talking to Andrew Young, a former top Edwards aide who allegedly holds a tape involving the politician. The D-word was never used by reporter Bob Woodruff.

Liberals are always popular until you get to know them.

Posted by: drivl | February 1, 2010 2:40 PM | Report abuse

BTW: If you go to the Department of Education website, ALL of the red states rank at the BOTTOM in the per capita number of:

1. College Graduates
2. High School Graduates


Posted by: bobnsri | February 1, 2010 2:35 PM | Report abuse

News out of the upper midwest today is twofold:

1) job openings (i.e. want ads) are increasing

2) survey of manufacturers points to economic growth in next 3 to 6 months.

in other words, if you're in the GOP, you may be counting y'alls chickens before them done hatched.


.

Posted by: bsimon1 | February 1, 2010 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Oh how foolish.

You forget Hispanics, Blacks, White Liberals, Gays and Jews are solid Blue.

And in 2016 those Groups will become the MAJORITY in the USA according to the US Census Bureau.

How sad for the GOP, but then again, that's life!

Posted by: bobnsri | February 1, 2010 2:29 PM | Report abuse

I do, now get lost.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 2:28 PM | Report abuse

hey


37th


Who

pays

the

bills


While

you

troll

all

day


?

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 2:22 PM | Report abuse

This is the problem for Republicans. Although the Dems are clearly struggling, voters are not flocking to the GOP in especially large numbers. It's not about dropping the Dems in favor of conservative principles, but rather a disappointment with both parties.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: parkerfl1 | February 1, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

"You are making a whole bunch of assertions, half of which I don't agree with. And I have to sit here and listen to them."


- Quote from Obama at a meeting in which Obama was attempting to demonstrate how bipartisan he is.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Chris:


Your piece here makes no sense - because it does not discuss those who identify as "independents" - and "no affiliation"


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Obama the Bipartisan:

"I will reject the same old grandstanding when the cameras are on"

Is Obama really being partisan again ???


Today is Monday - He just met with the Republicans on Friday.


I suppose Obama will end up blaming the Republicans for not being bipartisan.

The thing is Obama was the one who made the commitment to the American people to be bipartisan.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 1, 2010 2:07 PM | Report abuse

This part of the article is telling:
"The Democratic edge has narrowed by five points or more in 14 states, according to the numbers, which take a year's worth of daily tracking polls to produce their results, released today by Gallup."

I would like to see the breakdown of the tracking polls month-by-month.
I would bet they show a pretty precipitous slide in the "Democratic edge" in the last 3-4 months of the year.

Posted by: spamsux1 | February 1, 2010 1:59 PM | Report abuse

For purposes of this data, Gallup counted "lean Democrat" and "Democrat" as Democratic supporters. It says that clearly in the article. Maybe you should read it.

Posted by: Blarg | February 1, 2010 1:08 PM
---------------------------------
Here's an idea. Take it to SCOTUS. Let them overturn decades of law and revert back to the partial human rule, you know like 3/5 of a person. Define all D's as partial humans. Problem solved! Case closed!

Judicial activism? Nay, nay.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | February 1, 2010 1:38 PM | Report abuse

Ewwwwwwww! OMG, can you imagine living in one of those red states?

==

the quintessence of red state uh humanity: the smell of congealed pork grease sweat drying in the fat-rolls of a smoker's polluted living carcass

Posted by: Noacoler | February 1, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Ewwwwwwww! OMG, can you imagine living in one of those red states? Idaho sure is pretty, though...

Posted by: chorpophone | February 1, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

"following up on what DRIVI said. i think the analysis is very useful in making clear what deep trouble the dems are in. Mass, NJ and VA arent even on the list of 8 states of hemrhomging democratic support, and their candidates got POUNDED in high profile races in those purple and blue states.

Posted by: dummypants"

It's crazy. When people cite the gov races, I'm never sure if they're ignorant or dishonest. States have govs who go against Presidential preferences all the time. Cali, Maryland, Mass, RI, NJ (before Christie), Connecticut have all had Republican govs now or in the recent past. Texas, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, TN, WV all have had Dem govs either now or recently.

With all the ACTUAL good news for Republicans (the Mass special election is awesome for national Republicans), I'm not sure why they feel the need to point out false good news.

Posted by: DDAWD | February 1, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

so much wishful thinking.

Posted by: drindl

>>>>>>>>>>>>.

I wish the libs in mass would elect a Repub and stop government takover of health care dead in its tracks.

Posted by: drivl | February 1, 2010 1:18 PM | Report abuse

For purposes of this data, Gallup counted "lean Democrat" and "Democrat" as Democratic supporters. It says that clearly in the article. Maybe you should read it.

Posted by: Blarg | February 1, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Blarg:

The problem is that "lean GOP" or "lean Democrat" are not "party affiliations. And, you figures are plain wrong. Massachusetts has significantly more residents identifying as political independents (49%) than as Democrats (35%).

From this link in the Gallup article http://www.gallup.com/poll/125264/Massachusetts-Leans-Democratic-Independent-Base.aspx

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 1, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

The article includes a table with the full numbers for each state. The table doesn't explicitly say what percent of voters don't lean towards either party, but it's easy to figure out.

Rhode Island has the highest percent of unaffiliated voters, at 19.3%. It's followed by Hawaii at 18.3 and Arkansas and Texas at 18.1. The lowest states are Maryland and PA, both at 11.7%, then Oklahoma at 11.9%. The average is 15.2%. It seems that a state's partisan tilt doesn't affect its number of truly independent voters, and the percent of unaffiliated voters is pretty much the same in every state.

Posted by: Blarg | February 1, 2010 12:48 PM | Report abuse

jtemple1:

There's no "problem" -- New Jersey, Virginia, and now MassachusettEs, were simply amazing fantasies that some people indulge in, so much wishful thinking -- in reality, DEMOCRATS were actually elected in each of those contests ; )

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 1, 2010 12:48 PM | Report abuse

'following up on what DRIVI said. i think the analysis is very useful in making clear what deep trouble the dems are in'

ROFLOL. Too funny. amazing the fantasies some people indulge in. so much wishful thinking.

Posted by: drindl | February 1, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

The problem for democrats is more people identify with them but a lot of them never vote. Also in the south,in a lot of the states democrats do well in local elections but the people vote republican in federal election.
Still keep in mind since 1988 the republicans have lost the popular vote in every ptresidential election except 2004 and lost in 2008 by almost 10 million.
With strong minority turnout all Obama needs to do is get about 33% of the white vote to win.

Posted by: jtemple1 | February 1, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

dummypants:

Agreed!

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 1, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Where is the 3rd Troll, so you can have the full compliment of all three alone here on this board all day together?

Posted by: drindl | February 1, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

following up on what DRIVI said. i think the analysis is very useful in making clear what deep trouble the dems are in. Mass, NJ and VA arent even on the list of 8 states of hemrhomging democratic support, and their candidates got POUNDED in high profile races in those purple and blue states.

Posted by: dummypants | February 1, 2010 12:29 PM | Report abuse

TX suffered from one party domination as a D state and suffers now from its one party domination as an R state. The fact that my Ds are more conservative than your Ds in "not TX' and that my Rs are split between the COC business types and the creationists allows the State House, with a mere 2 vote R majority, to be run by pro-biz center-right Rs and Ds. That is as close to "competitive" as we get.

All statewide offices are held by Rs. Bill White does stand a chance of beating Goodhair [but not of beating KBH, IMO]. Still, please do not mistake TX for a competitive state, although urbanization is moving us in that direction, and everyone predicts that the increasing Chicano vote will, too - but I will believe that when I see it.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 1, 2010 12:28 PM | Report abuse

From the Gallup poll: "It is important to note that the classification of states reported here is based on the political affiliations of all residents, and does not necessarily indicate how a state might vote in a given election. Also, the partisanship figures include independents who have a partisan leaning with each party's core identifiers."

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 1, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

Not only are there lots of Reagan Democrats still out there, but a few States actually have MORE registered Independents than either Democrats or Republicans. For instance, Massachusetts (technically a COMMONWEALTH, not State) shook the political world when Independents sent Sen-elect Scott Brown (R) to victory.

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 1, 2010 12:04 PM | Report abuse

I see you have NJ, VA and MA still blue. Hmmmmm, seems to call into question the utility of this analysis.

Posted by: drivl | February 1, 2010 12:02 PM | Report abuse

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