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Virginia Primary Prediction Contest!



Voters cast ballots in Virginia's gubernatorial race today.Jahi Chikwendiu -- The Washington Post

Voters are voting in Virginia today!

State Sen. Creigh Deeds is clearly the favorite to win today's Democratic gubernatorial primary but there has been a late surge of optimism in the camp of former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe who is hoping his ground game -- by far the most extensive in the race -- will carry the day. In an email to supporters, McAuliffe adviser Mo Elleithee touted a one-night poll that showed his candidate and Deeds tied at 33 percent. Former state Del. Brian Moran needs huge turnout in northern Virginia to pull off an upset and, from anecdotal reports coming into the Fix, that scenario doesn't seem top be playing out.

With the return of contested primary races comes the return of the best contest this side of Plinko -- the Fix's primary prediction contest.

For those of who followed the Fix during the 2008 presidential primaries, you are familiar with the rules of our game. Offer your order of finish (with percentages) in the comments section below. Closest to the pin wins an official Fix t-shirt -- the hottest piece of clothing since the Tim Riggins "Panther Football" tee. We also still want a prediction of what the storyline will be coming out of today's vote; tack that on after your order-of-finish prediction and double your chances of winning a Fix t-shirt.

Your vote must be registered in the comments section below by 7 pm when polls close in Virginia.

Go to it!

By Chris Cillizza  |  June 9, 2009; 2:54 PM ET
Categories:  Democratic Party  
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Next: VA-Gov: The Final Spin

Comments

McAuliffe 43%
Deeds 30%
Moran 27%

Headline: Man Wins T-Shirt! McAuliffe Wins Primary!

Posted by: LanceReeves | June 9, 2009 6:58 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 39.25
Terry: 31.75
Moran: 28.50

Storylines:

1)Deeds won because he was least tied to Washington. In the general, the candidate who most successfully ties the other candidate to the Washington establishment will likely win the election.

2)Virginia is still a center-right state, as is the nation. The most activist liberal voters turned out and they voted for the centrist candidate. Could this mean Obama won Virginia because of his personality and not because of his policies?

3)Washington Post endorsement makes the paper relevant. It upped Deeds ID, gave him money, and gave him a relevant topic to frame his ads (he had a lack of depth on issues).

4)Stretching a sports analogy: REMATCH -- it'll be like Magic and Bird (michigan state versus Indiana state, well, not quite, but bear with me) playing again in primetime, under the klieg lights, when the nation will watch what happens in the nation's new bell-weather state (Virgina went for Obama 53-47 as did the nation).

Posted by: EastDillonHighFan | June 9, 2009 6:57 PM | Report abuse

Deeds - 37%
McAuliffe - 35%
Moran - 28%

No matter who wins they have an uphill battle to beat McDonnell.

Posted by: jbgolden | June 9, 2009 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Deeds:42
Mcauliffe:32
Moran:26

"A nobody from nowhere beats Clinton Best Friend"

Posted by: retsaun | June 9, 2009 6:44 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe: 41
Deeds: 31
Moran: 28

McAuliffe's money and connections were able to buy the ground game needed to ID and turnout his voters. Higher turnout would have favored Deeds, but in a low turnout election, the paid for infrastructure to get certain people to the polls won out.

Posted by: StirringthePot | June 9, 2009 6:38 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 36%
McAuliffe 36%
Moran 27%

Posted by: --sg | June 9, 2009 6:35 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe 35%
Deeds 33%
Moran 31%

Posted by: MI_TC | June 9, 2009 6:32 PM | Report abuse

Moran 39%
Deeds 35%
MacAuliffe 26%

Some Precints in Alexandria turnout over 25%. Rest of state abysmally low except Deeds' county, which isn't big enough to make him win. TMac flames out. Black voter turnout is low & party faithful break for Moran because the Post has moved to far to the right and Deeds' position on guns turns away NoVa voters.

Posted by: gsquared100 | June 9, 2009 6:27 PM | Report abuse

Moran--34
Deeds--32
McAuliffe--31

Moran Wins in a Squeeker

Posted by: mjerzyk | June 9, 2009 6:25 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe -- 43%

Deeds -- 41%

Moran -- 16%

Headline: Outsider beats insiders; Hispanic turnout the key to winning for McAuliffe

Posted by: ginnyhinesparry | June 9, 2009 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Moran 39%
Deeds 35%
MacAuliffe 26%

Some Precints in Alexandria turnout over 25%. Rest of state abysmally low except Deeds' county, which isn't big enough to make him win. TMac flames out. Black voter turnout is low & party faithful break for Moran because the Post has moved to far to the right and Deeds' position on guns turns away NoVa voters.

Posted by: gsquared100 | June 9, 2009 6:23 PM | Report abuse


Moran - 34%

Deeds - 32%

McAuliffe - 31%

Posted by: mjerzyk | June 9, 2009 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Deeds - 46
Moran - 28
McAuliffe - 26

Posted by: tar82 | June 9, 2009 6:21 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe 35
Deeds 35
Moran 28

Outcome of razor-thin election still unclear on Wednesday morning. Both sides' attorneys are at the ready. Absentee ballots will be key.

Posted by: billmcg1 | June 9, 2009 6:19 PM | Report abuse

Deeds - 40%
McAuliffe - 34%
Moran - 25%

Posted by: nicroxylifegmailcom | June 9, 2009 6:17 PM | Report abuse

1. Creigh Deeds 41%
2. Terry McAuliffe 35%
3. Brian Moran 24%

What Happened to Terry McAuliffe?

Posted by: toanstrom1 | June 9, 2009 6:16 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 39%
McAuliffe: 37%
Moran: 24%

Moderate Deeds rides late wave to victory

Posted by: suffragiologist | June 9, 2009 6:16 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 46%
McAuliffe: 29%
Moran: 24%
Others: 1%

Rain screws up all the NOVA ground games, Deeds benefits.

Posted by: justinbland | June 9, 2009 6:08 PM | Report abuse

Headline:

McAullife Can't Buy Election, Deeds Rides Momentum to Victory!

Posted by: jcarnoldsf | June 9, 2009 6:06 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 40
McAuliffe 37
Moran 23

Deeds NoVA Momentum Too Much For McAuliffe, Moran

Posted by: JoeD1 | June 9, 2009 6:06 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds 41
Terry McAuliife 34
Brian Moran 24

Posted by: GregM11 | June 9, 2009 6:04 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe - 36%
Deeds - 34%
Moran - 30%

McAuliffe narrowly wins as a result of his grassroots network and GOTV operation. He will then go on to lose to McDonnell, as any Democrat would have.

Posted by: dbeauregard2 | June 9, 2009 6:03 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 41%
Moran 32%
McAuliffe 27%

McAuliffe's negatives are too high, Moran attacks eroded his limited support, undecideds/weak supporters will break towards Deeds/Moran, WaPo endorsement created the momentum for Deeds he needed to run up the middle between Moran/McAuliffe.

Posted by: jcarnoldsf | June 9, 2009 6:02 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds 39%
Terry McAuliffe 33%
Brian Moran 28%

Posted by: firme2306 | June 9, 2009 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Terry McAuliffe - 39%
Creigh Deeds - 36%
Brian Moran - 25%

Story: Deeds surged, but it was too late. McAuliffe established too much of a solid ground game early on for anyone to ultimately overtake him. McAuliffe's win stems largely from strong turn-out among African Americans.

Posted by: andyroo312 | June 9, 2009 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 38%
McAuliffe 37%
Moran 25%

Even in low-turnout, it takes more than money to win although it was closer than expected.

Posted by: dravecky | June 9, 2009 5:50 PM | Report abuse


With 40% of the vote,Creigh thanks God for thunderstorms in NoVA. Plans to appoint Him to Cabinet.

Posted by: jackdog | June 9, 2009 5:48 PM | Report abuse

Deeds, 36%
Moran, 33%
Sleazy Terry, 30%
Write ins/others 1%

Posted by: Exile_in_Philly | June 9, 2009 5:48 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 41.5%
McAuliffe 34.5%
Moran 24%

Posted by: soonerthought | June 9, 2009 5:42 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 40%
McAuliffe 36%
Moran 24%

Posted by: JacksonLanders | June 9, 2009 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Deeds- 37%
McAuliffe- 34%
Moran- 29%

2% McDonnell write-in

Posted by: PWConservative | June 9, 2009 5:34 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 37%
McAuliiffe 32%
Moran 31%

Headline -- Rematch!

Posted by: gretchenlaskas | June 9, 2009 5:25 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds 38%
Terry McAuliffe 37%
Brian Moran 24%

Posted by: Bensell1 | June 9, 2009 5:09 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 45
Moran:33
McAuliffe: 22

Posted by: taylordankmyer | June 9, 2009 5:07 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe 39%
Deeds 37%
Moran 24%

Low turnout, TMac's Strong GOTV Leads to Win

Posted by: dwmauro | June 9, 2009 5:05 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe: 37%
Deeds: 34%
Moran: 29%

Posted by: jordangpittman | June 9, 2009 5:00 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 36%
Moran: 32%
McAuliffe: 32%

Posted by: vinnyminchillo | June 9, 2009 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Terry McAuliffe 37%
Creigh Deeds 36%
Brian Moran 24%

McAuliffe bought enough votes to eek it out.

Posted by: bruinrob11 | June 9, 2009 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 35%
McAuliffe: 27%
Moran: 24%

Deeds pulls away with win despite last minute scare

Posted by: khagler1 | June 9, 2009 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 35%
McAuliffe: 27%
Moran: 24%

Deeds pulls away with win despite last minute scare

Posted by: khagler1 | June 9, 2009 4:54 PM | Report abuse

We should have a secondary contest.. for two week final tallies.. whoever guesses the percentage of votes (for none of these three) and we could take it out to say two decimal places..

Like:
2.10% (write-in, undecided)
Someone would just have to set a cutoff date and get the vote totals..

Posted by: newbeeboy | June 9, 2009 4:47 PM | Report abuse

GOVERNOR
McAuliffe - 37%
Deeds - 35%
Moran - 28%

LT. GOVERNOR
Wagner - 62%
Signer - 38%

Posted by: dcpritt | June 9, 2009 4:46 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 41.8%
McAuliffe: 41.2%
Moran: 17%

Storyline: Deeds and McAuliffe in dead heat; recount possible; Victor to face McDonnell in fall.

Posted by: Bondosan | June 9, 2009 4:45 PM | Report abuse

Macker - 37.7
Deeds - 36.0
Moran - 26.3

Posted by: bizquik37 | June 9, 2009 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 36%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 26%

Posted by: cwsjd99 | June 9, 2009 4:42 PM | Report abuse

35% - Deeds
33% - McAuliffe
29% - Moran

Posted by: stug | June 9, 2009 4:41 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe 38%
Deeds 36%
Moran 26%

The grassroots thrives in the rain!

Posted by: kristinsmith1 | June 9, 2009 4:41 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe 37
Deeds 34
Moran 28

Posted by: christoph_berlin | June 9, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 37%
Moran: 33%
McAuliffe: 30%

Three way split in NoVa with horrible turnout (especially African-American) throughout the Commonwealth).

Posted by: chotliwala | June 9, 2009 4:38 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe-- 38.6
Deeds -- 38.4
Moran 23

Posted by: peterdc | June 9, 2009 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds- 39%
Brian Moran- 31%
Terry McAuliffe- 30%

Posted by: JamesEMartin | June 9, 2009 4:37 PM | Report abuse

I won a tee-shirt once but I never received it!

Posted by: mark_in_austin | June 9, 2009 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 39%
McAuliffe 38%
Moran 23%

Posted by: mkf1 | June 9, 2009 4:32 PM | Report abuse

A complete guess-

Creigh Deeds- 45%
Terry McAuliffe- 31%
Brian Moran-24%

Turnout between 210-220 thousand

Posted by: poughies | June 9, 2009 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Deeds-42
McAuliffe-38
Moran-20

Posted by: Haners | June 9, 2009 4:24 PM | Report abuse

but, on the upside, Barack Obama is more popular than ever. ""


yeah, that must really burn, king of fools. You can stay on these boards all day long and spew your lies and realize you are just spitting into the wind and no one hears your insignificant little voice.

Posted by: drindl | June 9, 2009 4:19 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe 34
Deeds 33
Moran 28

Ground game brings McAuliffe come-from-behind victory

Posted by: Jindal2012 | June 9, 2009 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Kind of had my heart set on a one-size fits most adults smoking jacket complete with the pipe, coat, belt and matching ascot.. well, maybe during the mid-terms...

Posted by: newbeeboy | June 9, 2009 4:11 PM | Report abuse

Deeds - 40%
McAuliffe - 29%
Moran - 31%

Posted by: jpsherer | June 9, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Creigh DEEDS 44%
Terry McAULIFFE 34%
Brian MORAN 22%

A year ago at this time my money was on Moran because he seemed to look the part of a gubernatorial nominee and I thought he could beat the Republicans. However, Deeds has ran a near flawless campaign and deserves the nod.

Posted by: juanchin | June 9, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 38%
McAuliffe: 33%
Moran: 29%

Moderate native Deeds shows you need more than money to win in Virginia amid signs of an increasingly deep blue NOVA.

Posted by: CoughlinC | June 9, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 40%
McAuliffe 35%
Moran 25%

Posted by: jaf5x | June 9, 2009 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 42%
McAuliffe 31%
Moran 27%

Deeds primary victory proves that newspaper endorsements are still relevant in primaries. Especially after Hillary Clinton's 3rd place Iowa showing after recieving the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, newspaper editorial boards have been seen as not factoring into statewide primaries.

Posted by: fgriefer | June 9, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 39
McAuliffe 36
Moran 25

Story: Clinton machine fades away.

Posted by: brentb52 | June 9, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Mcauliffe 39
Deeds 37
Moran 23

Lead story "Turn out abysmally low"

Posted by: howzie | June 9, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

...and, of course, the storyline:

The Mack falls flat; Deeds succeeds, onto November.

Posted by: mattmfm | June 9, 2009 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 41
McAuliffe 32
Moran 27

Inclement weather brings down the NOVA vote, making Deeds' stronger support in ROVA the deciding factor.

Posted by: thecorinthian | June 9, 2009 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds 40%
Terry McAulife 31%
Brian Moran 28%

Deeds strong finish builds momentum for showdown in November.

Posted by: davidsfr | June 9, 2009 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 40%
McAuliffe: 37%
Moran: 23%

Headline: McAuliffe couldn't follow Obama's pattern, he just could not raise enough out of state money to buy Virginia. Deeds does the deed with a final week push to the finish line!

Posted by: reason5 | June 9, 2009 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Since Barack Obama has been elected, he has gone on a "world apology tour." If he hasn't been bowing to the Saudi King, he's been falsely accusing his own nation of torture, giving the A-OK to Iran to have nuclear power, or bizarrely claiming that the United States is one of the largest Muslim countries in the world. Our enemies are undoubtedly heartened to have such a sap in the White House while any nation that relies on the United States to safeguard its freedom must be shaking in its boots -- but, on the upside, Barack Obama is more popular than ever. That will be really helpful when he gets out of office and starts collecting those six-figure checks in Europe for thirty-minute speeches.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | June 9, 2009 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Moran 34
Deeds 33
Mcauliffe 33

Moran wins a squeaker

Posted by: dcordell11 | June 9, 2009 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Moran 33
Deeds 32
McAulliffe 32

Closest race in Virginia history leads to unbelievable Moran upset and to Republicans likely to recapture the Governor's Mansion in the fall

Posted by: diego_r | June 9, 2009 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 44%
McAuliffe 33%
Moran 22%

Posted by: mattmfm | June 9, 2009 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 36
Moran 34
McAuliffe 30

The Macker is one political operative I simply can't stand

Posted by: kdemko | June 9, 2009 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 48
Terry 28
Moran 24

Posted by: milfordone | June 9, 2009 3:44 PM | Report abuse

A free T-Shirt.. Bill O'Reilly would have let us buy one...

Posted by: newbeeboy | June 9, 2009 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 42%
McAuliffe: 28%
Moran: 27%
King of Z... 3%

Posted by: newbeeboy | June 9, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

what a surprise - the Liberals lose big. Call it the Obama effect.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | June 9, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

McAuliffe - 37%
Deeds - 34%
Moran - 29%

Posted by: dcarkansan | June 9, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Deeds - 37%
McAuliffe - 33%
Moran - 30%

Deeds proves that slow, steady and dull wins the race, now must hire McAuliffe to raise money.

Posted by: wtwebb2 | June 9, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds 46%
Terry McAuliffe 35%
Brian Moran 18%

Late surge propels Deeds to primary victory -- will face McDonell in November.

Posted by: billbolducinmaine | June 9, 2009 3:39 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 40
McAuliffe 34
Moran 26

Posted by: jaiby1 | June 9, 2009 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Deeds: 44%
McAuliffe: 30%
Moran: 26%

Money isn't everything, as experience and in-state connections allow Deeds to overcome McAuliffe. No TV and all mailers makes Moran a dull boy.

Posted by: itw6w | June 9, 2009 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 37%
Terry 31%
Brian 31%

Deeds better than expected in NOVA.

Posted by: jpgrinnell8 | June 9, 2009 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 37%
Terry 31%
Brian 31%

Deeds better than expected in NOVA.

Posted by: jpgrinnell8 | June 9, 2009 3:31 PM | Report abuse

1) deeds 35%
2) moran 34%
3) mcaulliffe 30%

Posted by: pikachu_the_impaler | June 9, 2009 3:30 PM | Report abuse

The final count:

Creigh Deeds: 41.5%
Terry McAuliffe: 33.5%
Brian Moran: 23%

Posted by: MichaelStubel | June 9, 2009 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Deeds-40
McAuliffe-38
Moran-19

Posted by: Coloradem1 | June 9, 2009 3:29 PM | Report abuse

The final count:

Creigh Deeds: 41.5%
Terry McAuliffe: 33.5%
Brian Moran: 23%

Posted by: MichaelStubel | June 9, 2009 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Terry McAuliffe 37%
Creigh Deeds 35%
Brian Moran 28%

Headline: McAuliffe cruises to victory, Deeds' surge just not enough

Posted by: raf47 | June 9, 2009 3:23 PM | Report abuse

McAuuliffe 41%
Deeds 40%
Moran 19%

and then there will be the Franken/Coleman results redeaux

Posted by: KittyB57 | June 9, 2009 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 39%
McAuliffe 33%
Moran 28%

The story line will focus on the fact that Deeds and McDonnell are coming up for a rematch, and the analogy between Hillary Clinton in Iowa and McAuliiffe in Virginia.

Posted by: brownm1 | June 9, 2009 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 50
McAuliffe 29
Moran 20

Storyline will be how McAuliffe must not have spent correctly on the ground game, just as he hasn't spent correctly throughout the campaign. By the way, some friends and I have decided that "to shad plank," as a verb, now has an additional, non-fish-related meaning... referring to placing signs on at least 1000 feet of highway with no more than 2 feet separating each sign. As in, "Jeez, we're 12 hours from the election, and we've still got these 500 signs -- hell with it, let's go shad plank Arlington Boulevard."

Posted by: MosesCleaveland | June 9, 2009 3:21 PM | Report abuse

deeds-39
T-Mac- 35
Moran- 25

Posted by: dee150586 | June 9, 2009 3:19 PM | Report abuse

A Manassas resident says.....

1. Creigh Deeds: 46%
2. Terry McAuliffe: 34%
3. Brian Moran: 20%

WaPo endorsement and recent negative coverage for McAuliffe on the blogosphere make this one a semi-rout. Moran fades badly at the very end with scarce fundraising. Deeds immediately goes negative on McDonnell.

Posted by: SkinsDiesel | June 9, 2009 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Deeds-47%
McAuliffe-38%
Moran-15%

Headline: Deeds does the Deed, McAuliffe looking for a Mulligan

Posted by: jcw_colby | June 9, 2009 3:17 PM | Report abuse

Deeds - 42%
McAuliffe -35%
Moran - 23%

I think the storyline tomorrow is going to be a general "No one cares about this primary election compared to the presidential election a few montsh ago."

Posted by: VTDuffman | June 9, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Deeds 39.5, McAuliffe 31.5, Moran 29. This will be closer than the robo polls predict.

My question is, when McAuliffe loses, will he concede or go on a search for Virginia's Democratic Super-Delegates to give him the win he tried to buy?

Posted by: fakevirginia | June 9, 2009 3:13 PM | Report abuse

Creigh - 39
Terry - 34
Moran 27

I suspect the headline will be that boring one currently kicking around about "Moran and Terry destroyed each other and Deeds was the third-party beneficiary"

Posted by: colincampbell | June 9, 2009 3:11 PM | Report abuse

Deeds-44%
McAuliffe-39%
Moran-17%

Headline: Heavy Rains in NoVA Soak Macks hopes.

Posted by: AndyR3 | June 9, 2009 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Deeds- 36%
McAuliffe- 35%
Moran- 29%

Posted by: flick231 | June 9, 2009 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Creigh Deeds: 38%
Terry McAuliffe: 34%
Brian Moran: 28%

Posted by: o-munn | June 9, 2009 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Is the weather suppressing turnout?

Posted by: bsimon1 | June 9, 2009 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Deeds--40
McAuliffe--32
Moran--28

As the Beatles said, money can't buy you love.

Posted by: ramgut | June 9, 2009 2:58 PM | Report abuse

A humble bay-stater's predictions:

1. Creigh Deeds: 39%
2. Terry McAuliffe: 31%
3. Brian Moran: 29%

Posted by: matt-omalleydotcom | June 9, 2009 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Terry McAuliffe 38%
Creigh Deeds 35%
Brian Moran 25%

Thanks to McAuliffe's money and ground game.

Posted by: mccj22 | June 9, 2009 2:38 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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