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Pick a President! Beat The Fix!

Always believed you knew more about politics than The Fix? (And, frankly, who hasn't?)

Now's your chance to prove it.

Today unveils its "Pick Your President" competition where you -- Fixistas around the world -- get the chance to carve up the political map and see whether Barack Obama or John McCain gets to 270 electoral votes.

You can start from scratch or use a variety of pre-set scenarios -- 2004 presidential results by state, states won in the primaries by Obama, McCain or even Hillary Rodham Clinton, states expected to be central battlegrounds in the fall election -- to make picking your electoral map a bit easier.

At a loss and need to see where conventional wisdom puts each state? The "Game Trends" tab in the lower right-hand corner of the page shows where the majority of players are putting each state.

Once you finalize your picks, the fun really begins. Thanks to the geniuses at, you will get a url that links to your picks and embed code that allows you to show off the picks on your own blog.

The Fix's initial picks are embedded below. We will be updating them regularly as circumstances in the race change, so stay tuned.

One major caveat: The Fix Picks are based solely on an examination of polling and demographic trends in each state and not ANY personal preference for either candidate.

To the winner goes a $500 Best Buy gift card and the unending adulation of political junkies everywhere. Let's play!

<p><strong>><a href=''>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election and enter to win a $500 prize.</p>

By Chris Cillizza  |  August 19, 2008; 9:09 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
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Next: The Chase for 60: Is Oklahoma Coming On Line?


It's too bad that the DNC manipulated the primary voting to ensure a win for Obama and to ensure that Clinton was kept out. And it is also too bad that the media played long and hard at helping out to both ends. Obama, whatever his merits, now has to suffer through the role of being given something he wasn't entitled to because the DNC and the media believed he couldn't win it fair and square on his own hook. That, to me, is reprehensible elitism because I think he could have won it--at the convention if necessary. That would have made him a formidable opponent to McCain instead of being just another DNC leftist hothouse flower. But now, we will never know.

Posted by: tervalent | August 24, 2008 11:29 AM | Report abuse

It does not bode well for Hillary to react and display her neative
"unsupportive" behavior. This is a disappointment for a lady who could bring a lot to the table. Shirley

Posted by: | August 23, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

Why doesn't this site include Bob Barr and all of the other third party candidates with ballot access sufficient to win a majority? With all the vitriol spouted above against either "Mac" or "Nob," it's obvious Americans want a change from the status quo duopoly. The change is out there: Bob Barr. Do your homework, read up on American history, free market economics, Locke, Hobbes, etc, and then study Barr versus the status quo candidates. Or just read Ron Paul's book, an excellent primer. At the very least, support Barr's inclusion in debates--he'll wipe the floor with both Mac and Nob...then you'll have your choice--it will be obvious.

Posted by: Matt | August 22, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

It dosen't matter what the actual vote is, McCain will win because the Republican party will do everything it has to do to keep power. Their history of lying cheating and legal maneuvering predicts exactly what will happen again. 30% of Americans suppot Bush as it is, they only have to influence, buy or steal 18-20% of the vote to throw the elections into the Supreme Court, and we've seen how that works out.

Posted by: KennyBoy | August 21, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

Chris - As of this morning, Real Clear Politics shows a state-by-state breakdown with McCain winning 274 to Obama's 264 electoral votes. Would you care to comment on why you guys differ (we can see where you differ on the maps)? Thanks.

Posted by: Merton | August 21, 2008 11:05 AM | Report abuse

Great. Just when Obama had me in his camp he picks Biden. Crap. Could he have picked a worse choice? Biden. He carries Delaware and cheated on his resume.

Posted by: cosmkdbree | August 20, 2008 10:05 PM | Report abuse

McCain was forewarning his suporters that at this point NObama would be ahead big time in polls but that he (Mac) would eventually catch up.

How unnecessary?!

The polls are essentially tied. In some, Mac is even ahead. A generic democrat beats a generic Repug by 13 pts but Mac and Nob are tied; what are these voters saying? There is no generic dem and no generic Repug at this point, just Mac and Nob. What does it mean? When the D-day comes, it is anti-Nob vote.

In the meanwhile, the groupie gutter rat fans of Nob insist on insulting Clinton and her supporters any which way they can. That media prostitute Mo Dowd uses her paid position at NYT to write an anti-HRC diatribe every day - she is on her own private vendetta mission against CLinton, and NYT is happy to pay her salary and provide air time - what a disgrace.

However, all this has a silver lining. It serves to remind the Clinton supporters about all the ugly racism and sexism of Nob and his supporters and his media prostitute pals. It serves to keep the % of Clinton supporters that will stay home or vote Mac at 35 or more.

So, I say, gutter rat groupies of Nob, bring it on; keep trashing HRC; the final laugh will be on you, when Nob gets his behind kicked in a year when every other Repug will lose his or her shirt.

It is called comeuppance.

As for the FIx and its idiocy, well, well; can you say pipe dream? Thought so.

Take 2004 results; take out PA and put it in Mac's column. NOb is toast, after his bittergate comments in Scranton, Harrisburg, and all the other areas in between.

With PA gone, it does n't matter if Nob wins CO, Wy or whatever other little dinky state from Repugs.

So long, gutter rat fans of Nob

Posted by: intcamd1 | August 20, 2008 9:43 PM | Report abuse

To A.L.L.,
Seriously? How does stating religious beliefs make Obama or McCain "unAmerican" or "power-mad losers"? To my mind, it makes them very American. What the First Amendment says is, "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances."

It seems to me that expressing their beliefs--publicly or otherwise--makes them very American. They're just exercising their First Amendment rights.

Posted by: K.F. | August 20, 2008 9:00 PM | Report abuse

If Obama carries Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado and all the states that Kerry did he's in at 271 (the same number that gave us Bush in 2000) although the only vote that really counted was the 5-4 split in the Marble Palace on Capitol Hill.

Posted by: ejgallagher1 | August 20, 2008 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Clinton and Mccain are totally different people whoever said that Obama will get wiped out in ohio and penn by Mccain. I Don't voters want another $10billion dollar war per month. So I really believe Obama will suprise you. Obama will get 270+ Electoral Votes.

Posted by: Brain Thompson | August 20, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Mike B,

I think you have it about right including Virginia and, I would add, quite possibly Georgia. There is a lot of reporting about recent polls showing McCain being even or ahead. That may prove to be the best news Obama could have this early before election day. McCain is arguably at his best when he is behind, and at his worst when he is leading. To everyone; the race has really not begun. Look for the healing to begin and the numbers to move in Obama's direction. 314-224 electoral votes.

Posted by: dch | August 20, 2008 8:10 AM | Report abuse

As a strong Clinton supporter I am of course behind Barack. She made alot of mistakes that cost us the primary, and if it was done again she would certainly have done things differently BUT, I am not sure the outcome would be any different!!! I've come to accept that there is immense support for Barack AND Hilary and we need to come together and support Barack as our nominee because the alternative is MUCH MUCH WORSE!!!!

Posted by: Amy | August 20, 2008 7:22 AM | Report abuse

Obama and McCain both succumbed to the pressure to state their religiious beliefs in a public forum at a church. That makes them BOTH unAmerican and BOTH of them power-mad losers.

We really need Hillary Clinton now, but I seriously doubt the DNC or the delegates have the integrity to admit they made a serious mistake when they railroaded her.

I'll vote Green.

Posted by: A.L.L. | August 20, 2008 2:01 AM | Report abuse

haters, lay off chris - he explained it's JUST the polls - not his opinion - hence Hawaii...cuz of lack of polling...

Posted by: fixfan | August 19, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

I am extremely puzzled about Hawaii being listed as a toss-up. Can you explain, Chris?

Next thing you know it will be Illinois and Arizona that are up for grabs!

Posted by: Fairfax Voter | August 19, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

say bye bye to florida and michigan....these voters need not go to the poles....they have already been tossed out by the d.n.c....the same goes for all voters who feel robbed of their vote by....take a guess...the d.n.c......if the doors of the convention hall stay open during the roll call vote......but in 1980 they didnt and delegates were locked in for the roll call.....i and many disinfranchized voters pray that the roll call has to go to a second that delegates may vote their minds not their state's pledge.....i live in fear...that the only political sanity i will have for the next 4 years will be in WEST WING reruns and DOONESBURY. IN GOD WE TRUST....but in this case ....GOD has nothing to do with it.......greed for power and $$$$ has ruled for 8 years and looks to be thriving in d.c....

Posted by: d housand in mexico | August 19, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

Anyone notice how the reds,always playing
the fear card,like socialist,communist,
be really afraid,people,because if you let the middle class share some of the wealth
of this country,that will be class warfare,
you have to patroit to us RICH GUYS,we believe in REAGAN trickle down solutions to economics,caught our crumbs,idot learn
how to steal,lie and cheat,and you to can
be a good American.KEEPING THE LOWER CLASS

Posted by: Keys | August 19, 2008 3:55 PM | Report abuse

You are so wise Comrade Redeemer.

Comrade Barack will lead us to a great Vicory.

Posted by: dano | August 19, 2008 3:29 PM | Report abuse

We will win this general election Chris,
we as democrats will euthusially support
Obama,we just waiting for our convention,
just to see who our vp will be,our support
will be coming from the bottom,from the local alderman,sheriff,to state ,local and federal,officeholders,our people will fight
the repubs.on an ground war,and any poliction thats think he will get elected
just on Obama coattails,have another thing coming,we need get out and defend our
party,were our the democrats, out defending and fighting, for Obama,Rush dopehead limpball is fighting 24/7,so is that Gay guy Hannity,I like Biden but biden
is not out their fighting for his party,
kerry is,kennedy is,we can't let the repugs
is just an ole poster boy for the rich lobb


Posted by: REDEEMER | August 19, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

There's no way on the planet that Ohio and Pa. will go for Obama as the FIX's map has it. While Obama will win 95% of the black vote and carry the areas of the far-left wing liberals of academia, Hillary proved that Obama has no support anywhere outside those areas. There are by far more white working class voters in those states than black or liberal academe voters. Bottom line? Obama will get wiped out big time by McCain in Ohio and Pa. come the general election in November.

Posted by: madhatter | August 19, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse


Russert did not share all his political opinions.

Facts yes...thoughtful deductions yes but never a s facts or predictions.

No offense but...It is misleading to say that what Chris is doing isn't in the spirit of Russert.

It is the goal to try and not push forward subjective deduction but let facts speak for themselves. Not sure all know how within an industry or field can be called factual.

Posted by: dl | August 19, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse


Are you an analyst or a journalist? Do you think Tim Russert got where he did by hiding the opinions he derived from immersing himself in politics? No, on the contrary. Sharing his hard-earned insights as an analyst is one of the ways he made his name. Keeping your own insights hidden shows a confusion as you struggle to define your roles. It also shows a bit of disdain for your readers.

Posted by: Optimyst | August 19, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Is this the same kind of competition as last Friday's, where you never announced a winner?

"Make your pick for who won the week in the comments section below. The best entries are relatively concise and creative. We'll pluck the best of the best out and announce it in our "FixCam Week in Preview" post on Monday."

Just sayin'.

Posted by: pedestrian | August 19, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

I agree with bsimon--leaving those grey areas grey makes it look like Fix either rushed through with little thought or had some intern do it for him. I expected more Mr. Fix. :)

Posted by: chadibuins | August 19, 2008 11:08 AM | Report abuse

Hawai'i as a tossup? Hawai;i?

Posted by: Jack | August 19, 2008 11:03 AM | Report abuse

Chris, Obama will win in Ohio, NC, Iowa, PA, and come very close (and can even win) VA...and I'll take you up on a bet that Obama wins Montana, too.

No one has even started to cover McCain yet. The first salvo, perhaps the most damning analysis of any politician I have ever read, was fired today by Jack Cafferty, a moderate, an Evangelical Christian, and pretty representative of independent thought in this country:

"George Bush's record as a student, military man, businessman and leader of the free world is one of constant failure. And the part that troubles me most is he seems content with himself.
He will leave office with the country $10 trillion in debt, fighting two wars, our international reputation in shambles, our government cloaked in secrecy and suspicion that his entire presidency has been a litany of broken laws and promises, our citizens' faith in our own country ripped to shreds. Yet Bush goes bumbling along, grinning and spewing moronic one-liners, as though nobody understands what a colossal failure he has been.
I fear to the depth of my being that John McCain is just like him."

Posted by: MikeB | August 19, 2008 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Obama gets the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, & NM. States on the bubble are NV, MO, MT, AK, IN, VA and OH. FL, GA, and NC only fall to Obama if there is a landslide. McCain doesn't realistically appear to have a chance of picking up a Kerry state unless Obama is proven to fornicate publicly with goats.

Posted by: Stonecreek | August 19, 2008 11:01 AM | Report abuse

Unfortuunately, crystal balls dont come with a money back guarentee. the outcome may not so much be about the candidates but the environment, economic, political and social. People didnt like the outlook for the US before Russia invaded Georgia and before China showed its the real deal at the Olympics. Just think if Pakistan's nuclear arsenal seems to be at risk or a major US bank fails. People are still complacent here in Massachusetts as the economy is not that weak, but funny how quickly things can change

Posted by: nclwtk | August 19, 2008 10:55 AM | Report abuse

bsimon's reasonable landslide predicts the score will be 373 to 165.

Posted by: bsimon | August 19, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

OK, I see the deadline is Oct. 13, 2008. So late entries would seem to have better odds of winning...

Posted by: scrivener | August 19, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse


Hillary is a distinct possibility as Obama's VP, but only as a last-minute decision.

Once again, I would ask you to provide some form of evidence to suggest that a "majority of delegates" want Hillary to prevent Obama's nomination. I assume you still think that it is so Al Gore's name can be placed into nomination with Obama as VP, right?

But, FYI, the deadline for entries is October 13. Plenty of time for you to choke down all that crow you'll be gorging yourself on after Obama is nominated.

Posted by: JamesCH | August 19, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

The Fix is LAME for not picking AK, HI & the bizarre parts of ME & NE.

Posted by: bsimon | August 19, 2008 10:38 AM | Report abuse

Chris Cilliza, take your map and turn Indiana, Virginia, and New Hampshire into eletoral wins for Obama. Why do you have Hawaii as undecided? Obama will take Hawaii and McCain will take Alaska. But the biggest surprise election night will be Obama winning Georgia, thanks to Bob Barr taking away at least 30 of the Republican vote from McCain.

Depending on where the economy, gas prices, and U.S. casualty rates for Iraq/Afghanistan are in October, Obama has a very favorable potential to win in a landslide.

Posted by: Obama-Junkie | August 19, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Point of information:

When is the deadline for selections?

If Obama does a stunner and chooses Hillary as his VP, the map changes big-time.

If Hillary succeeds in preventing Obama from capturing the top of the ticket (the secret hope of the majority of delegates) the map changes big-time.

I'd choose to wait until August 30th, after the tickets for both parties are set.

The only rationale for playing the game now is to accept conventional wisdom. This could be the year that turns conventional wisdom inside out.

But the concept is great, and so is the technology. Nice job. More games, more prizes -- It's Coney Island Politix at The Fix!

BUT WILL THE ELECTION EVEN MATTER? Not when government-supported "vigilante injustice" squads are "gang stalking" American citizens:


Posted by: scrivener | August 19, 2008 10:31 AM | Report abuse

Remember if Obama picks Biden...McCain will have to choose either Romney or Ridge...

either get away from foreign policy argument with Romney and go after economics...or Ridge and put two vets on the ticket (and an ex head of homeland security) secures the conversations to probably be a battle on security...where mcCain wants it.

Posted by: dl | August 19, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

"The Fix Picks are based solely on an examination of polling and demographic trends in each state and not ANY personal preference for either candidate."

Posted by: Billy | August 19, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse


Good picks obviously...but the caveat is if Obama picks Biden and Mccain picks Ridge...

I know VP's haven't mattered in the past but this time I think it is different because of the apparent stance of the two candidates and their bases.

If Obama picks Biden Florida comes into play for them... and PA gets secured and believe it or not that helps in Colorado if you look at the demographic...especially if mcCain picks Ridge.

But Ridge secures VA makes PA a battle (which I think the dems would still take)...

and I think Mccain will think he secures Florida against Biden...he will also think he will bring Ohio and Michigan and NH further into play...

and NH I think Biden changes that dynamic...not to mention the ground game Obama has here is unbelievable.

Posted by: dl | August 19, 2008 10:27 AM | Report abuse

and forget N Carolina a state John Edwards could not even help win. N Carolina is always brought up as a change and seems to disappear on the radar screen by Oct 1 every 4 years. NAFTA will likely be the key in Ohio and McCain is on the wrong side of that issue for Ohio blue collar voters.

Posted by: Leichtman | August 19, 2008 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Forget Florida.

Has anyone thought of Tom Daschle as a VP sleeper pick? They seem to be joined at the hip though losing his last election is certainly not helpful.

Posted by: Leichtman | August 19, 2008 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Obama will carry all the states that Kerry got and will also win in Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa with a possibility of winning Florida as well.

Posted by: DCH | August 19, 2008 9:43 AM | Report abuse

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