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Evan Bayh Quietly Courting Big Labor

The Fix has long held that Evan Bayh will surprise some people with the depth and breadth of his political organization when he unveils his bid for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination -- an announcement likely to come either late this year or in early 2007.

Evan Bayh of Indiana
Sen. Evan Bayh is building bridges to the labor movement as he readies a 2008 presidential bid. Above, Bayh, at right, tours the Central Fire House in Manchester, N.H., during a Sept. trip. (AP Photo)

Considered a moderate-to-conservative Democrat, the Indiana senator is reaching far beyond his obvious constituencies in search of support.

Take his quiet courtship of organized labor -- perhaps the most important constituency group within the Democratic Party. As a former chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council and an advocate of free trade, Bayh would seem to be a hard sell to the labor movement.

But Bayh actually enjoys strong relations with United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger (an Indiana native and IU grad) as well as several other labor chiefs, including Mike Sullivan of the Sheet Metal Workers union. Bayh has leveraged these ties to achieve a foothold in the labor world.

At dinners organized by Sullivan, Bayh has supped with a number of union bigs. In September he attended a dinner at the Monocle in Washington, D.C., that featured the heads of influential unions like the International Association of Firefighters, the United Food and Commercial Workers and the United Steelworkers.

In addition to personal huddles with top labor officials, Bayh has stepped up his rhetoric and appearances on behalf of labor's key causes. At a UAW meeting earlier this year in Washington, Bayh drew cheers for his call for tougher enforcement of trade pacts and the tightening of tariffs against China. Bayh also keynoted an Iowa UAW conference in Des Moines last month and appeared with members of the UFCW at an anti-Wal-Mart rally in Cedar Rapids in August.

He also held a May 24 fundraiser for his All America PAC hosted by 14 unions, including UAW, American Federation of Teachers, National Education Association, Painters and Allied Trades and the National Rural Letter Carriers.

On the staff level, Bayh has brought in Gerry Kavanaugh to handle labor outreach for his nascent 2008 campaign. Kavanaugh, a former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Kennedy and senior aide at the Democratic National Committee under Terry McAuliffe, served as former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards's labor adviser during the 2004 primaries.

All of these moves probably won't add up to an endorsement for Bayh from a major international union. As we have written before, Edwards has done a tremendous amount of outreach to organized labor since losing the 2004 election, an effort that has been well-received both among the rank and file and leaders within the movement. And if Sens. Hillary Clinton or John Kerry decide to run (as expected), they will enjoy strong ties in the labor community as well.

So why is Bayh spending so much time courting a constituency not likely to have his name at the top of their endorsement lists? Because he (and his staff) know that being the first choice is not everything in the courtship process. It does Bayh no harm at this point to meet with every key group within the Democratic Party regardless of whether or not he reasonably expects to win their support.

Things change suddenly in the presidential nominating process. Who would have thought one week ago that ex-Virginia Gov. Mark Warner would decide not to run for president? Not many people -- even among political insiders. Warner's departure affords Bayh a chance to emerge as a second-tier candidate (Clinton is the lone candidate on the first tier) if he can quickly capitalize.

Timing may be everything in politics, but laying the organizational groundwork to take advantage of a lucky break is crucial as well. Bayh's early 2008 work continues to impress.

(Read The Fix's interview with Sen. Bayh from earlier this year.)

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 19, 2006; 2:39 PM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
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Next: House Democrats Expand Playing Field

Comments

From Las Vegas: the Dina Titus (Dem) vs. Jim Gibbons (Rep) race is getting thicker because of the alleged assault by Gibbons on a cocktail waitress Oct. 13. Coverage in local papers here has been extensive, and Gibbons pro politico handler Sig Rogich blew the press conference -- at which they answered no questions! Gibbons is a "family values" candidate who campaigned against DUI: so why didn't he call the "tipsy" and "falling down" girl a cab? (His words here). Also, he told police: "I've learned a lesson, never to offer anyone a helping hand again." Family values indeed... Does this sound like an "office and a gentleman"? Does this show the kind of good judgment needed to be governor of our state? There's a big wave of local outrage here, and a rising sense that the Gibbons campaign is out of touch!

Posted by: Douglas Unger | October 24, 2006 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Labor has lost much of it's influence. Bayh propably will run 3rd or 4th in the end, but at the end of the day fundraising and organization will win out. Clinton or Edwards will propably be the nominee. If it's Clinton, we will have a Clinton/Richardson ticket. If it's Edwards, who knows...maybe Bayh.

Posted by: reason | October 21, 2006 3:48 PM | Report abuse

The latest Rasmussen "Hillary Meter" shows 40% definitely WILL NOT vote for Hillary.

Only 31% will be definitely voting for her right now and
23% say it depends on who the Republican is.

That is BIG. It means 60% up in the air over Hillary as their president, not firm commited voters.

Peter Baker has a big story today about Bill Clinton as a possible VP for Hillary. Boy, it that dumb. If Hillary is going to be a serious contender, she better stand on her own 2 feet without her hubby standing in for her. The people had the 2 for 1 back in the 1990's, so do you want the 2 for 1 again? That is what you get, and Hillary has all the baggage from the illegal fundraising, White House coffee with illegal donors thanks to Terry McAuliffe, the sale of the Lincoln Bedroom, the Rose Law firm missing bill records, the 700 FBI files of civil servants with Craig Livingstone and the Whitewater corruption along with Jim and Susan McDougal convicted of bank fraud and tax evasion.

Yes, bring on Hillary and give the nation's newspapers more to dump on her. If the newspapers won't expose her corruption and her bribery and backroom deals. Also, look at the $20 million from Clinton overseas speakig which can be funneled into her presidential race. Lots of unethical stuff on all Hillary like glue, old stinky and sticky glue which she will NEVER shake.

Posted by: No to Hillary | October 20, 2006 3:42 PM | Report abuse

The topic of 2008 came up again, so here I am. Secretary of State Condi was correct in getting the UN Security Council to act fast and pass a 15 -0 resolution to get North Korea back to the 6 party talks. She was correct to work with the new UN General from S Korea who is helping her in the Asian area deal with the threat of North Korea. Condi was also correct to say the US will stand up for its allies (Taiwan, Japan, S Korea) to protect them from North Korea missles and bombs. The Mutual Defense Treaty was put into effect by President Eisenhower back in 1960. A reminder of a man who was drafted by the people to run for president. Maybe Condi will continue to walk in his footsteps.

In the latest Marist poll (Sept 2006) Rudy was at 23%, Condi 20%, and McCain at 15%.
That is the mood of the people, folks, it is evidence that voters want Condi to run and she could have a chance.

All the hoopity-doo about Obama is also a reflection of African-American inclusion in the GOP party. Condi on the ticket in 2008 will be an example that the party of Abraham Lincoln has entered the 21st Century.
If the Democrats want Hillary and Obama, then the Republican can balance them with a new fresh face, Condi Rice. Her world tour is a reminder that NOW she is the MOST powerful woman in the world. If she gets North Korea back to the 6 party talks and gets them to shut down their nuclear weapons, it will be the Power of Condi and her ability to get Asian leaders to help achieve her goals.

Posted by: Tina | October 20, 2006 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Don't get me wrong, I love Obama, but he doesn't and won't have enough real governing experience in '08. Hillary certainly doesn't have it. The only person who has it is Richardson and he would be excellent - when will we wake up and choose a governor as the candidate? It is the only proven way to go - and we need something proven after all of this time. . .who would think of putting up any senator as the candidate? It just doesn't make any sense. . .if Hillary really wanted the Dems to win in '08, she would do the honorable thing and bow out.

As far as Steele's chances in this cycle, I didn't have any concern until yesterday - at a little Thursday morning get-together one person had real concerns about him winning and by the time we left the others did as well. I live in MD and regardless of the demographics, it is pretty hard to fathom. . .what do you guys think?

Posted by: star11 | October 20, 2006 10:32 AM | Report abuse

"for the record, in 2004, surveyusa did extremely well predicting not only bush's win, but many of the senate and house races as well."

Are they owned by Diebold?

Posted by: Anonymous | October 20, 2006 2:59 AM | Report abuse

for the record, in 2004, surveyusa did extremely well predicting not only bush's win, but many of the senate and house races as well. the only pollster who beat them out was rasmussen. i've been watching pollsters for years now and the only two blatantly partisan ones who still get quoted by the msm are constituent dynamics (dem bias) and strategic vision (repub bias).

any thoughts?

Posted by: david | October 20, 2006 1:58 AM | Report abuse

OK Zoukster, you should not be posting FALSE poll results about Maryland. This race is over, stick a fork in it. Cardin is up by double digits.

Posted by: Stick A Fork In It | October 19, 2006 11:19 PM | Report abuse

I guess with Warner gone my choices go down from three to two: Evan Bayh and John Edwards. Edwards/Bayh would be a hell of a ticket. It would appear very moderate and would see well in places like Ohio whom want Edwards populist message, and Bayh's familiar values. With Ohio going to have a new Democrat Gov. and a new Democrat Senator I would put my money down that if someone like Edwards or Bayh wins the nomination Ohio goes to the Democrats. Good news for the Democrats because if they just win all the states Kerry did (252 electoral votes)...no problem. If you add in Ohio's 20. We are over the threshhold. In my guess though an Edwards/Bayh ticket or nomination of either two would score the Democrats 300+ electoral votes because voters are wanting a Democrat to win in 2008 after 8 years of Republican incompetence.

Posted by: PopulistDemocrat | October 19, 2006 10:43 PM | Report abuse

I'd be shocked if Bayh could garner much support. He has two strikes against him: he's a midwesterner, and he's not an Ivy Leaguer. (The latter is very important in the Democratic power structure; Obama wouldn't be considered if he didn't have a Harvard Law degree.)

John Edwards is the only candidate with a realistic chance of scuttling the bosses' Hillary push.

Posted by: Vincent | October 19, 2006 9:43 PM | Report abuse

A group of professional criminologists is challenging Kerry Healey's credentials as a ``career criminologist," saying she's a politician taking one-sided, tough-on-crime positions to get elected.

Many criminologists are offended that she is using that authority to advance a campaign that is so out of line with justice, where a defense attorney can't be a good leader and you have to be either for victims or against them," said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminal justice professor.
``You'd think it would be wonderful for us to have someone in such political high office. It would be, if she were really true to the principles of what criminologists stand for. Many of her statements are focusing on politics more than policy," said Fox, who called Healey's professional credentials ``rather thin."

This week Fox contacted more than 100 fellow members of the American Society of Criminology asking them to form a group called Massachusetts Criminologists for Justice, to raise concerns about Healey's ``platform and her approach." Dozens agreed to join, he said.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2006 9:37 PM | Report abuse

'DENVER --Information in an attack ad run by Rep. Bob Beauprez against his Democratic opponent for governor used illegal confidential information from a federal law enforcement database, Colorado authorities said Wednesday.

The Colorado Bureau of Investigation launched a criminal investigation into the ad after gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter's campaign raised the possibility that the databases were illegally accessed because the information could not be verified through public records.

Director Robert Cantwell said the information came from the National Crime Information Center, a federal database available only to law-enforcement officials.

"Because this is a federally controlled and regulated system, CBI has requested the assistance of the FBI to further pursue the investigation," Cantwell said. "The FBI and CBI will be working jointly to complete the investigation."

Use of the federal criminal database for any purpose other than law enforcement is a crime punishable by fines and up to a year in prison.'

Posted by: MORE DIRTY TRICKS | October 19, 2006 9:34 PM | Report abuse

'My goodness. As TPMm readers know well, House Appropriations chairman Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is under federal investigation for possible improprieties in how he oversaw Congress' spending of $900 billion annually. Yesterday, we reported that Lewis had dropped nearly $800,000 in legal fees to defend himself against the probe.

This evening, Congressional Quarterly reports (sub. req.) that in a round of calls Monday evening, Lewis fired 60 investigators who had worked for his committee rooting out fraud, waste and abuse, effective immediately. As in, don't bother coming in on Tuesday.

The investigators were contract workers, brought on to handle the extraordinary level of fraud investigations facing the panel.
Lewis' decision "has in fact stalled all of the investigations on the staff," said one of the contractors, a former FBI agent, who asked not to be identified. "This eviscerates the investigatory function. There is little if any ability to do any oversight now."
. . .

"In effect, no investigative function is going to be done," said the contractor, who called the decision "misguided."

"This staff has saved billions and billions of dollars, we've turned up malfeasance and misfeasance," the contractor said. "It's results justify the expense of the staff. I have no idea why the chairman would do this."

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2006 9:30 PM | Report abuse

'WASHINGTON (AP) - The Republican Party will begin airing a hard-hitting ad this weekend that warns of more cataclysmic terror attacks against the U.S. homeland.
The ad portrays Osama bin Laden and quotes his threats against America dating to February 1998. "These are the stakes," the ad concludes. "Vote November 7."

Brian Jones, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said the ad would run on national cable beginning Sunday, but he declined to discuss specifics of the buy. [...]

The ad displays an array of quotes from bin Laden and his top lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, that include bin Laden's Dec. 26, 2001 vow that "what is yet to come will be even greater."

The ad is also featured on the RNC's Web site. The party said the ad, called "The Stakes," will be e-mailed to millions of GOP supporters, activists and the state parties.'

--Yes, and George Bush has done exactly what to catch bin Ladin? Umm, anything?

The stakes? It's six years later and the guy still seems to be out there, doesn't he? So the stakes are, leave the incompetents in power?

I'm just asking...and I love the way the breathless, butt-kissing AP describes it as a 'hard-hitting ad' --well I guess it's 'hard-hitting' if you are really really stupid. christ.

Posted by: drindl | October 19, 2006 9:17 PM | Report abuse

Well you knew it was going to get vile, didn't you. We all knew. It will only get worse. Desperate rabid animals, backed into a corner...

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2006 7:38 PM | Report abuse

10-19) 15:26 PDT Garden Grove, Calif. (AP) --

Orange County Republican leaders on Thursday called for the withdrawal of a GOP congressional candidate they believe sent a letter threatening Hispanic immigrant voters with arrest.

Tan D. Nguyen denied knowing anything about the letter in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press but said he fired a campaign staffer who may have been responsible for it.

County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh, however, said that after speaking with state investigators and the company that distributed the mailer, he believes Nguyen had direct knowledge of the "obnoxious and reprehensible" letter. He told the AP that the party's executive committee voted unanimously to urge Nguyen to drop out of the race against Democratic U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez.


"I learned information that allows me to draw the conclusion that not only was Mr. Nguyen's campaign involved in this, but that Mr. Nguyen was personally involved in expediting the mailer," Baugh said in a telephone interview.


State and federal officials were investigating the letter, which was written in Spanish and mailed to an estimated 14,000 Democratic voters in central Orange County. It warns, "You are advised that if your residence in this country is illegal or you are an immigrant, voting in a federal election is a crime that could result in jail time."

Immigrants who are adult naturalized citizens are eligible to vote.

Nguyen, a Vietnamese immigrant whose opposition to illegal immigration has figured heavily in his underdog campaign, was not immediately available to react to the committee's vote. A staffer at his campaign headquarters said he was meeting with investigators.

Earlier Thursday, he said in an interview, "I did not do this. I did not approve of any letter."

Nguyen said he has fired an employee in his office who he believes might have used his campaign's voter data base to send the letter without his knowledge. He said he was cooperating with authorities and planned to continue his campaign.

"I will do whatever I can do to encourage all citizens in this district to vote," he said.

Orange County is an immigration battleground. One founder of the Minuteman civilian border patrol group ran for Congress here and cities have debated issues such as the value of public centers for day laborers and the use of local police to arrest illegal immigrants.

Complaints about the letters this week prompted a state probe, and a spokesman for California's attorney general said investigators had been questioning people in Orange County. U.S. Justice Department spokeswoman Cynthia Magnuson said the department's civil rights division was investigating in coordination with the state attorney general's office.

Numerous political leaders denounced the letter, including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"If it is proven that a candidate was responsible for this action, that candidate is clearly not fit to serve the people of California and should withdraw immediately from his or her race," California GOP Chairman Duf Sundheim said in a statement.

In an interview Thursday morning, Sanchez said she had never spoken to Nguyen because her campaign didn't see him as a threat to her re-election.

"If it is in fact this guy (who sent the letter), the most disgusting and saddest thing about it is that it comes from another immigrant," said Sanchez, a congresswoman born in the U.S. to Mexican parents whose 1996 election signaled Orange County's increasing diversification. "These communities have spent years trying to get naturalized immigrants to vote."

Nguyen's campaign Web site says he was born in 1973 in Vietnam, where his family fled the communist regime.

In 2004, he unsuccessfully ran in the Democratic primary to challenge GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in a heavily Republican coastal district. He later changed his party affiliation and declared his bid to upset Sanchez.

State attorney general spokesman Nathan Barankin said he did not know how long the investigation would take, but did say that investigators "have identified where we believe the mailing list was obtained."

The owner of Huntington Beach-based Mailing Pros, Christopher West, said he did not know any laws were being broken when his company sent the mailer. "It was in Spanish, and I don't read Spanish," he said.

West said he gave investigators the name of the person who hired him, but declined to provide that name in an interview.

The letterhead of the mailing resembles that of an anti-illegal immigration group, the Huntington Beach-based California Coalition for Immigration Reform. The group's leader, Barbara Coe, said she told investigators Wednesday that her group didn't authorize the letter and that she didn't know who sent it.

"The letterhead was altered, and I've never head of any Sergio Ramirez," the name signed to the letter, Coe said.

This is not the county's first dispute over alleged intimidation of Hispanic voters. In 1988, Republican Assembly candidate Curt Pringle posted uniformed "security guards" at 20 predominantly Hispanic voting places in Orange County.

Republicans said the guards were stationed to prevent noncitizens from casting ballots. Pringle and the county GOP paid $400,000 to settle a civil rights lawsuit alleging intimidation of Hispanic voters.

Posted by: Brian | October 19, 2006 7:16 PM | Report abuse

B20: For one WV my home state and most likely Fl. and don't count out Indinia, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Virginia, these may not all be so called red states but Clinton/Warner will carry most states in the New England area, plus a real chance in Ohio and for certain most of the western states. So with a little luck the Clinton/Warner ticket could make it a blowout in 08.

Posted by: lylepink | October 19, 2006 6:57 PM | Report abuse

If you aren't already watching, turn on CNN and watch Jack Cafferty, I'm guessing his show at the top of this hour will shake up BOTH parties.

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:55 PM | Report abuse

A new low for our Gonzales-led legal system and country, the two border patrol agents have been sentenced, one to 11 YEARS in prison (didn't catch the other sentence, but many years also) for trying to apprehend a known Mexican drug smuggler who was given immunity to testify against them!

Really, all of you Bush administration excusers, how can you live with this?

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Posted by: Truth Hunter | October 19, 2006 6:54 PM | Report abuse

From that LA Times link

"A federal judge is ordering the Bush administration to release information about who visited Dick Cheney's home and office -- and fulfill a request from The Washington Post that was refused by the Secret Service. The request is an effort to determine how much access lobbyists had to the vice president.

Government attorneys call it "a fishing expedition" and argue that they need to protect "the effective functioning of the vice presidency."

"a fishing expedition?"

Lets all hope they finally catch that sneaky old whale, "Maybe Dick!!!"

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:48 PM | Report abuse

"I just find her shameless tack toward the center just for the sake of 2008 positioning distasteful."

I would consider it distasteful, too, if it wasn't representative of her own constituency.

She's doing her job, by representing her constituents, but that may have had a very detrimental effect on her popularity with less-than-moderate Dems.

Hillary's neocon-contrived uber-lib image that is fed to rank and file Republicans is simply twisted. Otherwise, we wouldn't be having this discussion among our own ranks about her liberal bona-fides.

Her image has been manipulated by the same vast RW conspirators (Fox News, in particular) who tried to bring her husband down when he was a sitting President, using a moral-issues scandal (ironic, huh?) and all the while Bin Laden was planning his atacks.

Real patriots. But they may well have created such an intractable mindset in the likes of our trolls, she will never be judged for her real qualities.

By libs or cons.

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:33 PM | Report abuse

Isn't it ironic that the poster boy of Administration scandal for so long, who appeared to be the only one who would take a hit is I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby.

He almost looks like an altar boy compared to the others who have shown up more recently; and he may actually get off with not much more than a slap on the wrist, or just bad publicity (He'll be taken care of nicely by the power insiders as far as carer/income go).

Never would have thought of it at the beginning of this year.

Posted by: Nor'Easter | October 19, 2006 6:25 PM | Report abuse

"the letter was mailed to 14,000 Democratic voters in central Orange County."

Is that 14,000 felonies?

Or is voter intimidation just a misdemeanor?

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:21 PM | Report abuse

> Just how broad a spectrum of the total "opinion" they might represent, only B2O knows.

I honestly wouldn't mind a Hillary presidency, and I would vote for her in a heartbeat over whatever fundamentalist nutcase (or even moderate Wall Street type) the GOP nominates. I just find her shameless tack toward the center just for the sake of 2008 positioning distasteful.

My objection to her as the nominee though, is equally based on the likelihood that she means another GOP presidency. *That* representation of "total opinion" IS known. I can post the poll links if needed. (though I'm headed out now for the evening - you can google them, and they are also at pollingreport.com I believe)

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 6:19 PM | Report abuse

"They are suddenly desperate to create some appearance of adhering to "moral values"."

To quote my favorite person from "history," (in a very similar context)...

HYPOCRITES!!!

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:16 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Nor'easter, that's "the stuff."

Maybe THIS is the "impending" info Che told us about Abramoff, that hasn't been released yet.

Regardless of Scooter or any other Cheney-related issues, Cheney's actually been hanging by a legal thread since Safavian got popped.

Just who do you all suppose Safavian answered to?

Who do you suppose Rove answers to?

Who do you suppose "W" answers to?

Dick!

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:13 PM | Report abuse

JEP, don't you love the way recently the GOP has been making these "principled stands" against their own - of course, only in races and situations that are lost causes? They are suddenly desperate to create some appearance of adhering to "moral values". Now that their power is in actual jeopardy.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 6:12 PM | Report abuse

"At the same time, Republican officials today distanced themselves from Nguyen, with several calling for him to bow out of his underdog campaign to unseat Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez of Garden Grove."

At least some Republicans are smart enough to jump off a sinking ship before it goes down with them trapped inside.

Isn't that the Captain's job?

Watch out, Cap'n Cheney, or do you intend to hand the wheel to W? and go find yourself a noecon corporate lifeboat?

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:08 PM | Report abuse

I imagine that must have to do with the Abramoff investigation. You know, the lobbyist whom the White House barely knew, well, then they kind of knew about him, um, well okay so he visited us hundreds of times, okay, so Mr. Rove called him "a good friend", but what of it anyway? We're here to clean up Washington, don't you remember that?

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 6:07 PM | Report abuse

I found it JEP. This is awesome! According to the GOP congressional candidate's office, Gov. Arnold himself is "not allowed to vote"!!!!

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/socal/la-101906letter,0,133626.story?coll=la-home-headlines

The letter, which purports to be from a Huntington Beach-based group, warns that immigrants will not be permitted to vote in the election. It also warns that the state has developed a tracking system that will allow the names of Latino voters to be handed over to anti-immigrant groups.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 6:03 PM | Report abuse

"A judge wouldn't order that the Post "retrieve" Cheney's records; they would order that the Vice President's Office provide the records to the Post"

I know that.

I was just framing it to inspire a troll coniption, but it didn't work.

Yet.

Apparently, though, what you describe is exactly what is happening, the VP has been ordered to turn over his records to the WaPo.

Like I said, Chris, aren't you proud to work for a publication with big old iron kahones?

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 6:03 PM | Report abuse

Would you like home fries with your link?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15332695/

Posted by: Nor'Easter | October 19, 2006 6:01 PM | Report abuse

So KoZ, what is your House leadership saying to you when they back Mr. Hastert, despite several independent sources saying they told him about Foley's actions years ago? Do you think that'll get the evangelical wing all warm and fuzzy to come out and vote 3 weeks from now? It sounds like he couldn't give a damn what they think. But maybe I'm missing something - they do apparently like being used. Thoughts?

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:59 PM | Report abuse

I was hoping someone here would have some links about the Cheney investigation, I just heard it on CNN.

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 5:56 PM | Report abuse

Even if we were to keep just the SurveyUSA polls, the Democrats still take the House. Now, to counter the SurveyUSA poll, Zogby came out with another on the MD Senate race today and gives Cardin an 8 point lead. Cardin will win this race. No question. No pundits have even considered a Steele victory (unless you count Hannity and O'Reilly...but they are certainly not respected pundits. They are simply nutty Republicans that are from another planet).

Posted by: Political Junkie | October 19, 2006 5:56 PM | Report abuse

"Who here even *knows* someone who supports Sen. Clinton as our nominee for 2008?"

All of us do.

Hillary pulled aver 30% in recent NH polls, but her disapproval numbers were almost as high as her pluses, which is not a very good sign.

While Edwards was second in the popularity category at just under 20%, his "negatives" were negligible.

Whatever formula you might use, it is obvious B2O represents those Hillary negatives, with a circle of friends and associates who apparently agree.

Just how broad a spectrum of the total "opinion" they might represent, only B2O knows.

But there's little doubt, Hillary could represent a split party, and Edwards certainly doesn't.

Before we can have a "One America" campaign, we will have to forge a "One Candidate" Democratic Party.

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 5:55 PM | Report abuse

Hillary, while I like her and her policy positions, simply cannot be the nominee. As I heard one pundit say, "Hillary Clinton is the best fundraiser for...the Republican party. She gets the Republicans too riled up. And when Republicans get riled up, they vote. They are more dedicated to voting than we Democrats. I hate to say it. It stinks, but its true.

Posted by: Political Junkie | October 19, 2006 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Links, JEP, links... You can't just tease us with this stuff like that!

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Andy -

Not to mention that Feingold is generally considered the heir apparent to Dean's internet fundraising constituency (meaning that same base of activists - not meaning that others haven't caught on to using the internet to fundraise).

Still the MSM doesn't seem to want to give him the time of day. I guess when you are such a party-pooper on starting unnecessary wars, you hurt newspaper circulation. Who buys papers to read "Saddam still contained, no war today. No US service people killed again today. 650,000 Iraqis going about their daily routines today."

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:50 PM | Report abuse

California GOP Congressional candidate may be forced to drop out of the race for sending misleading direct-mail threatening naturalized citizens with jail if they vote!!!

The shoes are dropping right and left.

The centipede it a millipede!

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 5:44 PM | Report abuse

JEP, do you have any links about the Cheney stuff? Just wondering what it's about (not that I couldn't suggest about ten things the feds should be investigating, since we no longer have a living independent media).

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:44 PM | Report abuse

B20
I will back you up on the Feingold angle. He is going to be a thorn in someones side. Also I think he can pull the outsider card on anyone. Not to mention that he is a very good public speaker, he's smart as a whip, and isn't afraid to work with Republicans the rare times they do something right (see McCain Feingold campaign finance). The only problem is that he will get slammed by the electability wing of the democratic party. Right now Russ has my vote, and more importantly my donations, until Obama throws his hat in.

Posted by: Andy R | October 19, 2006 5:41 PM | Report abuse

A judge wouldn't order that the Post "retrieve" Cheney's records; they would order that the Vice President's Office provide the records to the Post.

Advantage: still Cheney

How many closets are there in the Vice President's mansion.

Remember Hillary?

Posted by: Nor'Easter | October 19, 2006 5:38 PM | Report abuse

> check this out if you like real math. Very interesting and I can't easily find any flaws in the reasoning.

I read that yesterday KoZ. Interesting, and I think he's probably onto something in that there is way too much chicken-counting going on at this point. Still there was a fair bit of hand-waving in his analysis. Including the completley unknowable level of "uncertainty" that one must inject into what I presume was a Monte Carlo simulation that he was running. It sounded like he pulled his variance component out of a hat. And the qualitative step of translating "likely Dem/Rep" and so forth into a probability was very subjective.

Still it was more quantitative than what usually passes for analysis in this mathematically illiterate nation, and therefore interesting.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:36 PM | Report abuse

On-thread;

As a political junkie who barely had Bayh on my radar screen, I have to say, he's been something of a non-player in my book.

His popularity is geographically-challenged, thus far, but he's got some enthusiastic support from rank and file Dems, so who knows?

He surely fits on that list of Democratic candidates that I believe could do a much better job of healing our national wounds than ANY Republican yet suggested by the GOP rank and file.

I called some folks to get their opinions, and my old Iowa pals think quite highly of Bayh.

But they all think much more highly of Edwards. Hillary gets a mention, too, but Edwards is still "the man" in Iowa among active Democrats. Particularly young Democrats.

Bayh and Edwards have similarities, for sure, but Edwards is already on many more "radar screens," for obvious reasons.

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 5:36 PM | Report abuse

KoZ -

> Once the real October surprise hits

So, you acknowledge that the Administration does have plans to manipulate the election by some major policy announcement - which usually entails the deaths of countless innocent people? Another counterproductive war, perhaps? We haven't started one of those in a couple of years now, at least.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:31 PM | Report abuse

KOZ, I'm doing math in my head. 13 seats + 2 seat variance = Dems winning House. OK, so you add ten more seats b/c KOZ is certifiably crazy and we've got ourselves a wave.

Posted by: Zach | October 19, 2006 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Way off thread;

Anyone hear yet about the Washington Post being given the go-ahead by a judge to retrieve Cheney's home and office visitation records?

Wouldn't that open up the whole can o' woims.

What's the scoop, any new info in the last couple hours. Sounds like Dick is under the microscope,must be like looking at a very dirty petrie dish.

One can only imagine what will be uncovered, the subterfuge a Cheney investigation would uncover would be historic, to say the least.

If the rumors about Cheney really being the one in charge are true (does anyone really doubt it?) then the trail leading to Cheney may be the only one we need to follow.

And PUH-LEEZE, any of our neocon wannabe trolls who pulls out that "executive priveledge" cacca can shove right back where the pulled it out of.

Remember Monica?

Posted by: JEP | October 19, 2006 5:26 PM | Report abuse

There is a vast left wing conspiracy in this country and just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 5:22 PM | Report abuse

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/10/just_how_doomed_is_the_gop.html

check this out if you like real math. Very interesting and I can't easily find any flaws in the reasoning.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 5:19 PM | Report abuse

KOZ-
Wow, like conspiracy theories much? The big bad media out to get you too? So it's not just Hillary then?

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 5:19 PM | Report abuse

oh yes, Hannity was just touting how Survey USA's polls were more 'accurate by far' than anyone else's....

and yes, i listen to both of them for at least the few moment i can stomach it, because then i know in advance what all the trolls will be saying... what today's tlaking points will be.

Posted by: dridl | October 19, 2006 5:19 PM | Report abuse

I never put much stock in polls. I only point this out to the people who live and die by these things. I remind you that these kind of polls have an anti-R bias of about 5% due to procedures inherent in the sampling bias. so all those toss up seats are actually R +5. Prepare yourselves for some dissappointment. Planning on winning a portion of those seats will turn out to be a bad prognostication (ooops, sorry JEP, I mean prediction.) I saw a very interesting probabilistic treatment of the predictions which ended with a range of 15-18 seats gained for Dems with no variance taken into account. Once the real October surprise hits, the line will shift back down to 11-13 seats with a 1 or 2 seat variance. don't count your chickens just yet.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 5:17 PM | Report abuse

I guess with Warner gone Bayh joins Mitt Romney in the "he's got no chance but he's still going to get fawning MSM coverage" chair. A conservative Democrat with no charisma and a bad record on the Iraq occupation? Yeah, that's who we need to nominate.

Posted by: Greg in LA | October 19, 2006 5:14 PM | Report abuse

KoZ -

Doesn't that speak to SurveyUSA's Republican bias, when it is so far out of line with every other polling outfit? Or do you think the "heavyweight" endorsement of convicted rapist Mike Tyson suddenly clinched the independent vote for Steele?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/md/maryland_senate_race-114.html

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2006 5:12 PM | Report abuse

CHICAGO - A fundraiser for Gov. Rod Blagojevich who missed arraignments on federal fraud and extortion charges last week was arrested Thursday at O'Hare International Airport, officials said.

The indictments came more than a year after federal authorities began investigating allegations of fraudulent hiring practices by top officials in the governor's office.

this is from AP so they don't bother to mention that the governor is a D.

another coincidence. HMMM. If I were JEP, I would have this all figured out by now.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Grasping at straws, Koz, grasping at straws. No swift boating to save you this time.

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 5:10 PM | Report abuse

lylepink:

> I also like Edwards a lot but he went with Gore

Sorry, you lost me there.

So which red state do you think Hillary can win? And we do need to turn at least one red voting state blue.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 5:08 PM | Report abuse

What makes you think I have standards. Just a coincidence that that particularly diabolical crooked pol was a Dem? you draw your own conclusions. I find it amusing after all the culture of corruption nonsense which is clearly distributed across party lines, but the median line resides on the Dem side of the fence, especially if you disregard the volume of ink and concentrate on the dollars. Dirty Harry clocks in at $700K. compare that to Ney's paltry amount. consider Allen's big stock fraud - failing to disclose a negative amount in stock options. Big whoop if you know anything about worthless stock options. Yet twisted into a fictional attack ad. then remember Hillary's amazing performance on cattle futures. Hmmmm makes you think. unless you are a Dem of course.

I never fell for the corruption angle. I only fan the flames because of the clearly hypocritical charges. I have always advocated local issues.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 5:05 PM | Report abuse

YTinfoil Weldon tries to buy his mothership:

http://harpers.org/sb-the-very-pr-1161110492.html

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 5:02 PM | Report abuse

YTinfoil Weldon tries to buy his mothership:

http://harpers.org/sb-the-very-pr-1161110492.html

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 4:59 PM | Report abuse

B20: I have been raising my hand for sometime now as most of you knows my ticket for 08 is Clinton/Warner and I have made no bones about it. I also like Edwards a lot but he went with Gore, who in effect trashed the Clintons and lost the POTUS that was handed to him on a silver platter.

Posted by: lylepink | October 19, 2006 4:59 PM | Report abuse

"Big labor" is supporting illegal alien "rights".... this may make big labor's endorsement more of a hot potato and a prize for 2008.

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Posted by: Truth Hunter | October 19, 2006 4:59 PM | Report abuse

Wait, I get it, the flying saucer was to hide all his payola!

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 4:56 PM | Report abuse

You wanna talk moonbattery? talk about Kurt Weldon trying to buy a Russian UFO. Then he took illegal payoffs through his daughter and thought nobody would notice. Tin-hat brigade strikes again!

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 4:54 PM | Report abuse

KOZ -

the best you can do is pull up some charges against a state assemblyman? Pretty weak, even by your standards.

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 4:54 PM | Report abuse

You wanna talk moonbattery? talk about Kurt Weldon trying to buy a Russian UFO. Then he took illegal payoffs through his daughter and thought nobody would notice. Tin-hat brigade strikes again!

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 4:53 PM | Report abuse

DSCC Bought $850K in Ohio Media Time
10/18/2006
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reported it paid $859,390 to Great American Media-GMMB on 10/13 for media buys relating to the Ohio Sherrod Brown election.

I guess someone thinks this is not a done deal.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 4:52 PM | Report abuse

KOZ -

the best you can do is pull up some charges against a state assemblyman? Pretty weak, even by your standards.

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 4:48 PM | Report abuse

Maryland Senate SurveyUSA 10/15-10/17 Cardin 46
Steele 46

the wave is subsiding. the closer we get to election day, the more the Dems will begin to look like failures - again. when they only pick up 12 house seats the press, pundits, polsters and moonbats will go absolutely crazy with indignation at thier deserved reward slighted. Again. No mention of the moronic policies and positions that got them here. Dance with the one that brung ya.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 4:47 PM | Report abuse

I've got a question for Chris or any of the other political junkies here.

So far, Russ Feingold is the ONLY 2008 Democratic presidential hopeful who had a chance to vote for the Iraq war, and wisely decided against doing so (in an atmosphere of intense pressure to enable the president's obsession). Given the utter failure of that policy move, and the fact that the Democratic rank and file is overwhelmingly against the war, and that it is the #1 issue on the minds of voters, shouldn't he be the odds-on favorite to get the nomination?

Why would primary voters jump at the chance to have Clinton, Kerry or Bayh, given their demonstrated cowardice (or bad judgment, depending on what you imagine motivated their vote) on the most important issue of these years?

I don't get it. Thank you Sir, may I have another one - is that the new motto of our party? Maybe we deserve to lose the White House then.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 4:46 PM | Report abuse

did global cooling hit in hades? Drindl is getting her talking points from Rush today? Peculiar.

did any Rs steal from little leagues this month? any Rs break into private credit info?

didn't everyone support Screamin'Dean right up until the first actual vote came in? Beware the ides of MArch and polls. you poor Dems aren't even going to know what hit you.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 19, 2006 4:40 PM | Report abuse

> I do, B2O. I know several, actually.

Wow, I'd love to meet them.

Just out of curiosity, have you asked them why they want a Republican president so badly in 2008? I say that because of multiple polls indicating that a majority of US voters have *already* made up their minds that they could not vote for Hillary. Hence, anyone pushing for her on the ticket must be knee deep in 1992 nostalgia, and looking forward to more senseless wars, tax cuts for the wealthy, and Old Testament theocracy from on high.

Posted by: B2o | October 19, 2006 4:38 PM | Report abuse

I do, B2O. I know several, actually.

Posted by: ILikeBayh | October 19, 2006 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Is there such a thing as "big labor" any more? I remember a day when it was a major deal for a Dem to grab the endorsement. But that day was many moons ago. For example, how well did Gephardt fair in two different runs for president in his own party while being backed by "big labor."

And the last two elections? Please, a "big labor" state called West Virginia went R both times, and in 2000, a win in that state would have made Gore president.

Sorry, but it ain't what it used to be Evan. You better be going after "soccer moms" and "security dads" and NASCAR...uh, I don't know what they are, but there are a lot of them!

The emerging problem for the GOP: "Not all Republicans make good pets."
http://www.eyewitnessmuse.com/diary.php?p=231

Posted by: The Eyewitness Muse | October 19, 2006 4:26 PM | Report abuse

> So Edwards-Bayh? Maybe some of the charisma will rub off??

In which direction?

Posted by: Hmm | October 19, 2006 4:15 PM | Report abuse

> Warner's departure affords Bayh a chance to emerge as a second-tier candidate (Clinton is the lone candidate on the first tier)

Don't we all just love the adorable, deluded, out of touch establishment media machine? Who here even *knows* someone who supports Sen. Clinton as our nominee for 2008? Don't be shy. Raise your hand! Be heard! I'm sure there's one or two of you out there.

Posted by: B2O | October 19, 2006 4:13 PM | Report abuse

I miss Mark Warner already...

Posted by: Political Junkie | October 19, 2006 3:51 PM | Report abuse

Whoa, this story is breaking fast...

looks like the republican candidate for governor in Las Vegas may have just assaulted and attempted to rape a woman while drunk. SUpposedly, it's all on tape.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/sun/2006/oct/19/566649524.html

Posted by: Will | October 19, 2006 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Courting the unions didn't help Gephardt any, any Gephardt had more charisma. Still don't see this going anywhere.

Posted by: Zathras | October 19, 2006 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Here's a quote from that twisted little closet freak Mehlman--courtesy firedoglake.com

'But, of course, Mehlman didn't stop there. In the e-mail -- with a subject line of "Saving American Lives" -- the RNC chief conveyed to his GOP brethren that this law was a reason to not even consider voting for a Democrat in three weeks, saying the "Democrats in the House voted against interrogating terrorists."

He followed that incredibly misleading line of crap by declaring that Democrats in both the House and the Senate "voted against this bill out of concern for terrorist civil liberties" and asking his followers to "take a stand for a stronger America by doing everything possible to ensure that these Democrats aren't given even more power in Washington."

--'Even more power'. christ. It staggers the imagination.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2006 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Obama-Bayh would actually be a really interesting ticket. Honestly, what state couldn't that ticket campaign in? Bayh is quite popular throughout the midwest and Obama seems to play everywhere. Sounds like a "map-changer" to me.

Posted by: Colin | October 19, 2006 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Limbaugh just said that Lieberman is "seething inside" and has "payback in mind" for the Democrats if he wins.

Is anyone surprised? It's all about Joe. I sure hope Dems in CT aren't foolish enough to vote for him. sigh.

Posted by: drindl | October 19, 2006 3:25 PM | Report abuse

When a black conservative group ran a radio ad proclaiming that the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican, reaction was swift. "We've gotten some e-mails and telephone calls filled with vitriol," said Frances Rice, chairman of the National Black Republican Association. "They've called me Aunt Jemima, a sellout, a traitor to my race."

To suggest that Martin could identify with a party that affirms preemptive, predatory war, and whose religious partners hint that God affirms war and favors the rich at the expense of the poor, is to revile Martin," said the Rev. Joseph Lowery, the former president of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, which the slain civil rights leader helped establish.

Posted by: unbelievable | October 19, 2006 3:23 PM | Report abuse

I'd vote Green before I voted Bayh. That simple.

Posted by: Nation (Chapel Hill, NC) | October 19, 2006 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, I don't see labor unions having that much clout anymore. And Bayh has a lot of bad, ugly votes to live down. He'd have a lot of 'splaining to do to move the base. I just don't see it.

Posted by: drindl | October 19, 2006 3:21 PM | Report abuse

So Edwards-Bayh?
Maybe some of the charisma will rub off??

Posted by: Brian | October 19, 2006 3:20 PM | Report abuse

I know you have to treat all candidates' efforts seriously, but please don't waste too much time on Evan Bayh. I heard him in New Hampshire. The term "lightweight" is much too kind for him, but it's as gentle as I can be on him. He brings absolutely nothing to the table.

Posted by: Dick, NH | October 19, 2006 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Thoughtful moderates without much charisma always struggle to emerge as bona fide contenders in Democratic presidential primaries. Bayh's father, Senator Birch Bayh, went nowhere in the 1976 primaries. But Evan Bayh could position himself as an obvious choice for veep.

Posted by: Flash | October 19, 2006 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Two points,
Are the labor unions really that influential anymore? Their money raising potential is gone and their get out the vote help has been less then stellar.
Second, Bayh is an ideal VP for HRC, or Obama. But he can't beat Edwards in a head to head running. Which is too bad cause he seems like a bright guy who might actually be a very good president.

Posted by: Andy R | October 19, 2006 3:05 PM | Report abuse

To heck with Southern candidates. It's time that the faster-growing West Coast took back control from the DC-obsessed lunatics.

Posted by: Will in Seattle | October 19, 2006 3:04 PM | Report abuse

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