Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity

Friday Line: Defining the Playing Field

As the campaign enters its final stretch, a look at where the two presidential candidates are spending their time and money suggests a playing field with sharp similarities to that of the last two national elections.

Roll over a state to see its 2004 presidential election result.

According to media buy information obtained by The Fix, the campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain are currently on the air in 14 of the same states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Obama has the airwaves to himself in three states: Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. Of the 18 states his campaign initially advertised in at the start of the general election campaign, Obama remains on television in all but two: Georgia, whose rock-ribbed Republicanism always made it a long shot and Alaska where the selection of immensely popular Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate has solidified the Last Frontier for the GOP.

Obama's willingness to fund ads and run full campaigns in a slightly broader palette of states gives him a few more paths to the nomination although, as we've noted, the fall election seems likely to come down to a handful of states -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida -- that decided the 2000 and 2004 races as well.

Here's our take on the ten states most likely to switch their 2004 presidential preference. As always, the number one ranked state is the most likely to switch sides in the fall election. Agree with our picks? Disagree? The comments section welcomes all views.

Line Highlights

  • Moving Up: Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Mexico
  • Moving Down: Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada
  • Last State Cut (aka #11): Wisconsin

To the Line!

10. Virginia (Bush, 54 percent): Democrats' irrational exuberance about their prospects in the Commonwealth have worn off of late. Obama passed on putting Gov. Tim Kaine on the ticket, and the state's largely conservative nature (with the obvious exception of northern Virginia) appears to be reasserting itself. The state is still a major target -- both Obama and McCain campaigned there earlier this week -- but the most recent independent survey suggests McCain holds an edge. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. Florida (Bush, 52 percent): Polling continues to suggest that McCain is maintaining a solid lead despite being massively outspent on television by Obama. McCain is now up on television in the state, which suggests some level of concern among his team. Still, the Sunshine state is McCain's to lose. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Ohio (Bush, 51 percent): Yes, we know the polling out of the Buckeye State shows Obama as the slight favorite. And, it's clear that Democrats are in a very different -- and better -- place in the state than they were in 2004, thanks is no small part to the election of Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in 2006. And yet, most strategists on both sides are skeptical about Obama's ability to carry the state -- pointing to his struggles with rural white voters during the Democratic primaries and the appeal of Palin to that same crucial voting bloc. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Pennsylvania (Kerry, 51 percent): No state provokes as much disagreement between Democratic and Republican strategists as this one. Democrats point to the massive gains they have made in voter registration (375,000 more Democrats on the rolls than after the 2006 election) as evidence that the math is determinative in their favor. Republicans note that polling continues to show the contest close, and that the Democratic nominee hasn't taken more than 51 percent of the vote in the Keystone State in the last four national elections. (Previous ranking: 8)

6. New Hampshire (Kerry, 51 percent): Obama, McCain and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden either have or will make campaign stops in the Granite State this week and weekend, a sign of the state's importance to both campaigns' electoral vote calculus. McCain's success in the state during the 2000 and 2008 primary seasons keep the state at number six on the Line for now but recent polling suggests the Obama campaign's optimism about their chances here is well founded. (Previous ranking: 4)

5. Michigan (Kerry, 51 percent): The Fix generally avoids bold predictions but here's one we can't resist: Michigan in 2008 will be the Ohio of 2004 or the Florida of 2000. That is, the Wolverine State will be the central battleground in the fight for the White House this fall. Why? First and foremost because the economy is, far and away, the biggest issue in this election and nowhere are those hard times felt more than in Michigan. Second, both Obama and McCain believe they have a reasonable path to 50 percent plus one in the state on Nov. 4. It is going to be an absolute war for the next 54 days. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent): Democratic and Republican operatives seem to agree that the Rocky Mountain State is a golden (pun intended) opportunity for Obama. Democrats have scored across-the-board gains (two House seats, a Senate seat and the governor's mansion) over the last few elections and staging the Democratic National Convention in Denver is sure to further fire up the party's base for the fall. (Previous ranking: 7)

3. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent): The high profile Democratic caucus in the state earlier this year did wonders for party registration numbers; as of August, there were nearly 458,000 registered Democrats in Nevada as compared to 397,000 registered Republicans. Still, Nevada's voters tend to be more conservative on social issues like guns and abortion and the Western appeal of the McCain/Palin ticket should not be overlooked. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent): The coming fall election looks like a slam dunk for Democrats in the Land of Enchantment. Senate Republicans have given up on the open seat race to replace Pete Domenici, and House Democrats are optimistic about their chances in taking over two open seats. With a Democratic wave seemingly building, Obama's campaign feels very good about his chances here. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent): McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said recently that he felt better about their chances in Iowa. Hard to see why. Obama retains a quasi native son appeal in the Hawkeye State and the most recent poll we've seen gave him a 15 point edge. (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza  |  September 12, 2008; 6:37 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008 , The Line  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: FixCam: Fundamental Change or Sound and Fury?
Next: Will Obama's Aggressive New Tone Work?

Comments

Montana should be on this list:
2 Dem Senators, Tester new last cycle.
Brian Schweitzer, new Gov. & Obamaite.
Ron Paul siphoning Repub. votes.
Rasmussen 3 mo. ave: Obama trails by 2pts
Montana should definitely be on this list.

Posted by: Steve in Detroit | September 14, 2008 7:29 AM | Report abuse

37th... I would've thought you'd have given up by now on spewing the absolute crap you make up and paste into these forums...

It is a well known lie that anyone has ever said anything vaguely credible about Obama and war games... and you must be sadly lacking in intellect if you think people will believe it because you post it.

Just once, why not try and contribute something on topic or credible to enhance rather than detract from this blog.

Posted by: Boutan | September 14, 2008 5:17 AM | Report abuse

One new factor may put Montana more into play as a switch possibility. Ron Paul has just qualified for the Montana ballot with the Constitution Party. Paul ignited a wave of new energy among some Republicans and conservative-leaning Independants this year. The Republicans used a state caucus this year, departing from more than 30 years of primaries. Romney won the Montana Caucus, but Ron Paul finished a strong second, with McCain far out of the running. With support of the Democratic nominee stronger than it's been for a long time in Montana, Paul may tip the balance toward Obama, since it appears Paul is poised to be much more than a "one-percenter" minor party candidate here.

Posted by: AlaninMissoula | September 13, 2008 8:25 PM | Report abuse

.


Sarah Palin just starting running for Vice President - the national media is just getting to know her - I can tell you this - I feel 1000% more comfortable with her in command in a National Security crisis as compared to Obama.


Obama has been in war games (scenarios which are run as part of seminars) as legislative training -


Other Senators have commented on how Obama hesitates when asked to make a decision, refuses to order the use of troops (in a war game situation) and will not order the bombs to be dropped (in a war game scenario.)


The Senators who have made public statements expressed doubt that Obama had the ability to handle an actual crisis.


Sarah Palin has the natural ability to lead this nation in a National Security Crisis - the nation can have confidence in her


.

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 13, 2008 6:48 PM | Report abuse


.


Sarah Palin has the right instincts: She will order the shooting first and ask Charlie Gibson about the doctrines later.


The Palin Doctrine:


1) Yes it was their fault.


2) Yes they deserved it.


3) Yes I don't care what the doctrine says.

.

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 13, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

All you McCain folks, this is what your hero is really all about.

What a guy....

A must read!!!! First wife out of sight, how shallow can one man be?
Carol McCain

McCain likes to illustrate his moral fiber by referring to his five years as a prisoner-of-war in Vietnam. And to demonstrate his commitment to family values, the 71-year- old former US Navy pilot pays warm tribute to his beautiful blonde wife, Cindy, with whom he has four children. But there is another Mrs. McCain who casts a ghostly shadow over the Senator's presidential campaign. She is seldom seen and rarely written about, despite being mother to McCain's three eldest children.

She was the woman McCain dreamed of during his long incarceration and torture in Vietnam's infamous 'Hanoi Hilton' prison and the woman who faithfully stayed at home looking after the children and waiting anxiously for news. But when McCain returned to America in 1973 to a fanfare of publicity and a handshake from Richard Nixon, he discovered his wife had been disfigured in a terrible car crash three years earlier. Her car had skidded on icy roads into a telegraph pole on Christmas Eve, 1969.

Her pelvis and one arm were shattered by the impact and she suffered massive internal injuries.

When Carol was discharged from hospital after six months of life-saving surgery, the prognosis was bleak. In order to save her legs, surgeons had been forced to cut away huge sections of shattered bone, taking with it her tall, willowy figure. She was confined to a wheelchair and was forced to use a catheter. Today, she stands at just 5' 4' in and still walks awkwardly, with a pronounced limp. Her body is held together by screws and metal plates and, at 70, her face is worn by wrinkles that speak of decades of silent suffering.

For nearly 30 years, Carol has maintained a dignified silence about the accident, McCain and their divorce. But last week at the bungalow where she now lives at Virginia Beach, a faded seaside resort 200 miles south of Washington, she told The Mail on Sunday how McCain divorced her in 1980 and married Cindy, 1 8 years his junior and the heir to an Arizona brewing fortune, just one month later.

My marriage ended because John McCain didn't want to be 40, he wanted to be 25. You know that happens...it just does.'

In 1979 - while still married to Carol - he met Cindy at a cocktail party in Hawaii. Over the next six months he pursued her, flying around the country to see her. Then he began to push to end his marriage. Some of McCain's acquaintances are less forgiving, however. They portray the politician as a self-centered womanizer who effectively abandoned his crippled wife to 'play the field'. They accuse him of finally settling on Cindy, a former rodeo beauty queen, for financial reasons.

Ted Sampley, who fought with US Special Forces in Vietnam and is now a leading campaigner for veterans' rights, said: 'I have been following John McCain's career for nearly 20 years. I know him personally. There is something wrong with this guy and let me tell you what it is -deceit.'

When he came home and saw that Carol was not the beauty he left behind, he started running around on her almost right away. Everybody around him knew it. Eventually he met Cindy and she was young and beautiful and very wealthy. At that point McCain just dumped Carol for something he thought was better.'

McCain is the classic opportunist. He's always reaching for attention and glory,' he said. After he came home, Carol walked with a limp. So he threw her over for a poster girl with big money from Arizona . And the rest is history.'

Ross Perot, a billionaire Texas businessman, and a former presidential candidate, who paid her medical bills all those years ago, now believes that both Carol McCain and the American people have been taken in by a man who is unusually slick and cruel - even by the standards of modern politics.


Posted by: RonG | September 13, 2008 5:46 PM | Report abuse

__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar____McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__McLiar__

Posted by: yeah, but he's a POW... | September 13, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

.

Voted one of the Nation's Top 5 Blogs for the 2008 Election:


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 13, 2008 7:16 AM | Report abuse

Based on an average of polls at realclearpolitics.com (weighted toward the most recent polls), here's what I see as the 10 most likely switches currently:

10. New Hampshire (Obama up by 4 points)

9. Florida (McCain up by 4)

8. Pennsylvania (Obama +4)

7. Michigan (Obama +3)

6. Virginia (McCain +2)

5. Ohio (McCain +1)

4. Nevada (McCain +1)

3. Colorado (Obama +1)

2. New Mexico (Obama +2)

1. Iowa (Obama +10)

Posted by: pjf0226 | September 13, 2008 2:16 AM | Report abuse

Washigton State from Real Clear Politics-

Rasmussen 09/10 - 09/10 500 LV 49 47 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 09/05 - 09/07 658 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Elway Poll 07/27 - 07/31 405 RV 47 35 Obama +12
*********************
Down to 2 points Joe!
Look out below...here comes McCain/Pallin to a Starbucks near you....


Posted by: Anonymous | September 13, 2008 12:05 AM | Report abuse

Rasmussen 09/10 - 09/10 500 LV 49 47 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 09/05 - 09/07 658 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Elway Poll 07/27 - 07/31 405 RV 47 35 Obama +12
*********************
Down to 2 points Joe!
Look out below...here comes McCain/Pallin to a Starbucks near you....

Posted by: Scott | September 13, 2008 12:01 AM | Report abuse

Hey Joe in Seattle-

What's in your coffee man?
Don't you know that McCain's always led in Montana, and now that we have Sarah on board....just keep on moving on to Massachusetts....I hear Washington State's not looking so good either Joe...

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 02/26 - 09/08 -- 49.0 40.0 McCain +9.0
Rasmussen 09/08 - 09/08 700 LV 53 42 McCain +11
Mason-Dixon 05/19 - 05/21 625 LV 47 39 McCain +8
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 640 RV 47 39 McCain +8

Posted by: Scott | September 12, 2008 11:57 PM | Report abuse

Marist 09/05 - 09/08 805 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Fairleigh Dickinson 09/04 - 09/07 872 LV 47 41 Obama +6
Quinnipiac 08/04 - 08/10 1468 LV 51 41 Obama +10
Rasmussen 08/04 - 08/04 500 LV 52 42 Obama +10
Monmouth/Gannett 07/17 - 07/21 698 LV 50 36 Obama +14

************************

Look out below....there goes New Jersey!
14pt lead down to margin of error in 6wks.
Looks like Sarah's wowing them in Secaucus.

Posted by: Scott | September 12, 2008 11:49 PM | Report abuse

Polls show a dead heat in NC. Obama is competitive in Indiana. Ron Paul's candidacy in Montana is bound to hurt McCain in the close contest there.

The picture should be captioned, "Top ten possible 2008 swing states," not "Possible 2008 swing states."

Posted by: Joe in Seattle | September 12, 2008 8:27 PM | Report abuse

As to the previous poster's question about how anybody can in good conscience vote Republican after the disaster of the Bush Presidency of the past 8 years---you obviously have not noticed that there alot of stupid people across this country.

Posted by: OHIO CITIZEN | September 12, 2008 6:44 PM | Report abuse

I really don't see Michigan as more important than Ohio. Democrats will not win without Michigan. Republicans cannot win without Ohio. If Ohio goes R, and Michigan goes D, then Colorado will decide the election. But if either Ohio or Michigan flips to the other party, that party will win. If they somehow both flip---an unlikely occurrence in that it's very difficult to see Ohio going D while Michigan goes R given recent history---that's to Democrats' advantage as Ohio is larger in Electoral Votes.

Posted by: OHIO CITIZEN | September 12, 2008 6:42 PM | Report abuse

To think that the GOP could win in any state in this union, even the ones won in 2000 and 2004, is beyond my comprehension. How can anyone vote GOP after living through all that Bush & Co have put us through these last 8 years? In order for this to happen, these people will have to admit that SMOKE AND MIRRORS ALONG WITH THE POLITICS OF SLIME AND DISTRACTION really worked on those who are POLITICALLY IGNORANT, or else how can you explain it? It's appalling to think how much of this electorate will vote who have no clue about the issues but lots of "hearsay" information.

Posted by: Disparaged | September 12, 2008 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Wonder if it is true that the actual candidate that bumps off mutual opponent of both parties automatically wins in November and issues and popularity has little to nothing to do with it? And wonder if the mainstream media is in on this? Apparently the mutual opponent exposed corruption within both parties and is now targeted as a result. The question is how will he be bumped off? For example, will GOP use Guiliani-like mob ties like his protege Bernard Kerik did and got 140 years of jail or Gotti, Jr. whose trial for murder is scheduled for next Monday? Or will Dems use an OJ Simpson-like convict whose trial is coincidentally scheduled for next Monday too? Guess both are available to do a little 'bumping off' this weekend. Especially if both political parties engage in the common law enforcement practice of 'sweetheart deals' where convicts commit crime/murder in exchange for less jail time and conveniently covered up without real culprits suspected.

Wonder if we should begin to worry about our family's safety too as we volunteer this information? For example, will we have to worry doing our routine jog after work in the Hackensack/Bogota, NJ areas as our habits and plans are known in advanced with implanted bugging devices both in private and public?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 4:14 PM | Report abuse

--“No bickering here, types NoOneImportant, before bickering.

The reason liberals have so much trouble dealing with "evangelicals" and values voters is because they believe their own lies about them.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 12:30 PM “—

I don’t think that Evangelical’s are ignorant. I never tried to explain why they behave the way they do. I don’t know – nor care – what’s behind their behavior.

So lets look for the ‘values’ in the ‘values voters’:
Bush nearly destroys the country: 25-30% approval rating. Governance: low value.
Contrast reaction Jamie Lee Spears / Bristol Palin teen pregnancy. Personal morals: low value.
Policy experience. Dozens more qualified that McCain passed over. Qualifications: low value.
‘Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth” “Lipsticked pig” Integrity: low value.
Pro-life. High value.

Another way of looking at it is: What would it take for the Evangelical block to not vote for Palin? YOU TELL ME – what would it take for YOU to reconsider Palin?

Here’s what I’m thinking: Given that the VP’s chief of staff is a convicted felon – for lying, I figure you’d overlook a little criminal history in Palin’s background (Troopergate). Larry Craig seemed to hit a rough patch – so being gay would probably do it. Renounce Christianity? I take as a given. All guesses of course, so I'd value an answer.

PS - If by ‘liberal’ you mean ‘non-Evangelical’ – Ok. I’m a gentile to.

Posted by: NoOneImportant | September 12, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Adam,

You said: "....Lets assume that none of them switch, a fairly reasonable assumption at the moment, we are left at 260-260, with NV, CO, and NH left to determine the election. Obama wins with a tie, so McCain must win Colorado and either NV or NH."

I'm not trying to be snarky, just admitting I'm clueless. Why does a tie mean the election goes to Obama? Is there something in the electoral rules about the challenging party winning in case of a tie?

Posted by: help me out here | September 12, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

You neglect to mention Washington State - now only a two point margin in the polls. If McCain can take Washington St. Obamas campaign is doomed.

Posted by: jme | September 12, 2008 3:33 PM | Report abuse

"How many of you are federal government employees at work right now?

Posted by: Bob | September 12, 2008 3:02 PM "
=====================================
Me, me !

Okay, now that we've got that out of the way....

Chris,
In your chat today (sorry, I'm reading it late, after my govt duties are done), someone asked "With most of the country agreeing that the past eight years have not been good, how is it that half of the populace believes that the Republican Party deserves to hold the presidency for another term?"

My parents and grandparents generation (I'm a boomer) often voted the Party line...and so a Democratic candidate was a Democrat was a Democrat, no matter who he is, and by definition he is better than a Republican -- or vice versa.

But that's not how it is for those of us who grew up in the days when LBJ was now way the same as McGovern who was no way the same as Jimmy Carter. Although the major parties refuse to acknowledge this, the Boomer generation votes for the person, as distinct from the party. (whether "the person" refers to character or to policy stance is a different question entirely). This is why Perot in '92 and Nader in'00 (and Gene McCarthy farther back, and maybe this year Bloomberg) were able to make such a splash. It is also why, despite a greater number of registered Democratic voters, the Republicans have been able to win recent elections --- whether the parties or the campaign managers or the media choose to believe otherwise, our generation votes for 'Person' not 'Party'. I would argue that this is why people are willing to try a different person in the WH, even if he's not from a different party. I think the "McSame" story line would only have been effective / useful if he had actually been GWB's VP. Dems don't seem to "get" that this is as much of a non-starter than the Repubs trying to say Obama represents a second Carter term.

Posted by: missing the point | September 12, 2008 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Your Obama is a trashy smear-mouthed SEXIST PIG and he's continuing to sink in polls due to his TRASHY GHETTO SMEAR.

So McCains attack on Chelsea was just being funny i guess? Or him using the same quote makes him folksy. I sure hope your not a teacher, whoops i think by reading your writing you dont even have a GED. Maybe one day you can come and join us in the civilized world not the GOP bubble that your candidates and President seem to live in....

Posted by: Asper girl is Mark Foley | September 12, 2008 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Asper girl,

So being born in Hawaii doesnt make you an american citizen??????

Posted by: American First | September 12, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Washington State now in play.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=14&entry_id=30199

Obama up by 4 pts in one poll, 2 pts in another poll

Lots of Palin affinity in the Pacific Northwest, apparently

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

To "overheard" at 12:15. Are you friggin' kidding me with that "hussein" and "osama" crap??!? You are oh-so clever! It's disgusting people like you that make me ashamed of my fellow Americans.

Posted by: sick of ignorant people | September 12, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

I love this article titled "Palin wins over Obama women". She has my vote!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4740955.ece

Posted by: Suzy | September 12, 2008 3:04 PM | Report abuse

How many of you are federal government employees at work right now?

Posted by: Bob | September 12, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

I have been in this country for 7 years and when I arrived I was struck at how poor and uneducated most blacks are. I could never figure out why most had children out of wedlock, sold drugs, and were in jail. They even have the highest rate of HIV.

I suppose it is the slave metality from generations ago but at some point they will have to take responsibility. I think that is the reason Senator Obama appeals to so many whites because he isn't 100% black. He has a black face but the mentality of a white person. That makes the vote palatable and they can feel good about themselves. I doubt many of these white voters would go for an Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson - just too black and they are for more representative of the black American - not Barack Obama.

Posted by: Rahiq | September 12, 2008 3:01 PM | Report abuse

McCain needs to do a commercial with Obama emailing all his celebrity friends. It will show all the stuff he should be doing. Obama has truly lost his screw balls. Notice how the entire Washington Post is in Obama rehabilitation mode? They are trashing Cindy McCain, after telling everyone DON'T YOUR DARE GO AFTER THE WIVES(meaning only Michelle). Then they lie about Biden's expense report, censors the news about his brain problems, his 5 draft deferrals. I guess WaPo doesn't know where Delaware is and only found out Alaska was a state. Is there anymore indication that journalism is dead? Why trust supposed journalists who wake up every morning trying to rig an election?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

PA, NH, and MI more likely to flip than OH?!?! Surely you're joking, Mr. Fix!

You rightly point out that recent polling in OH has shown Obama in the lead (or at worst a few points down). Can you point to ANY polls in PA, NH, or MI showing a McCain lead? I don't recall seeing any. Yet you say those three states are more likely to flip than OH??

Posted by: Jim Stack | September 12, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

Well, I didn't believe it a few months ago, but now it appears that the Republicans will retain the White House. It's astounding how the Palin choice delivered the death blow to the Obama campaign.

Posted by: Alex Keaton | September 12, 2008 2:22 PM | Report abuse

What a roller coaster!!!

Frankly, I STILL think Obama is going to win all of these states. Why? A number of reasons:

- new voters: Obama's voter registration drive has been a HUGE success and most of these folks don't get picked up by the polls
- young voters: whether they are new or not they are still fired up, ready to go, and undercounted in the polls
- Palin will fall as fast as she rose: it is already happening. She is still very likable but she doesn't have the political maturity to be the next in line to be president and that worries many independents
- Obama always rises to the occasion and the "now" has never been more "urgent" so I expect him to be FIERCE over the next 56 days
- It is still a change election and Obama is still the change candidate
- McCain's lying, negative campaign is backfiring. He has already lost many of his supporters in the media; it won't be long before it shows in the polls
- Ron Paul will cost him Montana and Bob Bar might play a role in the south
- Obama's ground game promises to be the best ever for get out the vote. Everywhere there was a contested Dem primary Obama is organized. If the unions who endorsed Clinton then come on board for Obama now he'll win 8 out of the the Fix' top 10 just with this.

Posted by: Peninsula Matt | September 12, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

It is impossible (barring some sort of earth shattering change in the electoral landscape - Texas I'm looking at you) for Barack Obama to win without taking one of MI, VA, and OH. If Obama wins two of those, game over. Clearly, these are the true battleground states.

Lets assume that none of them switch, a fairly reasonable assumption at the moment, we are left at 260-260, with NV, CO, and NH left to determine the election. Obama wins with a tie, so McCain must win Colorado and either NV or NH.

If things remain close, the playing field favors Obama. It seems that McCain's best chance for victory is a sweep on VA, OH, and MI

Posted by: Adam | September 12, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

McCain and Palin resonate in the heartland. Obama does not to me although there are plenty of people here who admire his eloquent messages. But I sense like Hillary said...there's nothing more behind it.

Posted by: the entire midwest | September 12, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

NEW FROM THE OBAMA 2008 LEXICON

PIGLIPSTICK (pig'-lip-stick)

1. (noun) a multibillion-dollar laser-guided, nuclear-tipped missile of the mid-21st century having a persistent radioactive payload that spread insidious, radioactive poisoning damage persistently after the initial impact event; named after the historic gaffe incident in which onetime American presidential candidate Barack Obama famously imploded after referring to his Republican opponent's addition of the first female Republican VP candidate to his ticket as "lipstick on a pig" that "stinks like an old fish".

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

NEW FROM THE OBAMA 2008 LEXICON

BIDEN (bye'-den)


1. (noun) a useless 4th person in a pair of couples who adds nothing to the debate, attracts no attention and that everyone forgets to include in pictures around the campfire, etc.

e.g. "That Democratic VP candidate is such a BIDEN"

2. (verb) a kind of staffing decision that is so ineffective that the individual is ill-fitting baggage whose presence drags down the energy of his group;

e.g. "That Barack Obama sure BIDENED his ticket. He went from being the uplifting personality ticket to being an angry black man dragging around an old blowhard doofus."

CLINTON (clin'-tun)

1. (noun) a force for good that you need to win, but against which you bear past personal grudges, past the point where it was relevant to anyone but yourself.

e.g. "Barack Obama did himself in by acting out against that CLINTON."
2. (verb) the act of castration by acting out some grudge or personal resentment over a rivalry, well past the point where you had already won.

e.g. "BY CLINTONING his own campaign, Barack Obama made sure that people can't blame "racism" for his humiliating losses.

PALIN (pay'-lin)

1. (noun) a real thing of such authentic quality that it exposes even the best counterfeit copy as an obvious phony by comparison.

e.g. "Barack Obama seems like a boring phony ever since that PALIN showed up."

2. (adv) the property of your appeal being so shallow that, as soon as something genuine appears against which your phony affectations can be compared, it vanishes.

e.g. "Barack Obama is PALIN comparison!"

PIGLIPSTICK (pig'-lip-stick)

1. (noun) a multibillion-dollar laser-guided, nuclear-tipped missile of the mid-21st century having a persistent radioactive payload that spread insidious, radioactive poisoning damage persistently after the initial impact event; named after the historic gaffe incident in which onetime American presidential candidate Barack Obama famously imploded after referring to his Republican opponent's addition of the first female Republican VP candidate to his ticket as "lipstick on a pig" that "stinks like an old fish".

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 1:23 PM | Report abuse

But Democrats faced a titanic dilemma because cashiering Obama might have salvaged this election but caused a permanent exodus of black voters from the party.

These unpleasant realities, I believe, forced Democrats into denial about Obama. They might have had rumblings of awareness that he wasn't the demigod they'd assumed but clung to the illusion that he was at least partially a post-partisan paladin who could rise above the mundane milieu where mere mortals meander.

But even they had to recognize that Obama is the least experienced candidate for president in recent memory. Earlier in the campaign, that truth temporarily was overshadowed by the dizzying euphoria sweeping America about Obama because of his good looks, his scripted eloquence and charisma, his apparently cheerful and magnanimous demeanor, and his promise to deliver change and a new kind of unifying politics.

As the campaign unfolded, Obama imploded in every one of those categories. Without a teleprompter, he was stripped of his eloquence, down to verbal nudity. Under fire, his cheerfulness turned to sniping nastiness. His platform of change was exposed as the same old extreme leftist policy prescription rejected by 60 percent of Americans, which is why he tried to hide it under cover of vagueness.

His commitment to unity was betrayed by close relationships with paragons of divisiveness, racism and anti-Americanism and his elitist denunciation of small-town Americans. His grandiose pledge to bring us all together was obliterated by his failure to unite even his own party and his eager participation in a very strident and contentious campaign. Far from rising above deficiencies in his resume, Obama is not cool under fire and has less, not more maturity than an average person with his level of experience.

Having hung all their hopes on a haloed herald of hallucinatory charisma and having established superficiality over substance as the electoral standard, Obama supporters forfeited all credibility to criticize Sarah Palin for lack of experience or excess of charisma.

Posted by: david L | September 12, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

HERE HERE!!!!!

Put those pompous Repukes and Democraps in line. They have too much power for too long. Time for a change.

Now whats the plan?


In all serious.. we need a storng 3rd party in america

I am not a right wing zealot of a bleeding heath socialist liberal..

we seriously need a strong party in the middle

strong on defense
small govt
more liberal on some social issues
lower taxes

that is really what america needs

Posted by: 3rd Party | September 12, 2008 1:05 PM

Posted by: 3rd party agreement | September 12, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

I keep wondering if Virginia should be higher on the list, if only because of Mark Warner's coattails. Demographically, Virginia hasn't transformed enough to be fully in the Democratic column, but I think Obama can squeeze a 49.9-49.8 victory, just like Webb did.

Florida should probably be lower on the list. In the 1990s, we were led to believe that it was a non-Southern swing state, but it's increasingly clear that Florida's as solidly Republican as its neighbors, albeit with a smaller GOP majority due to South Florida retirees.

And Nevada as #3? I don't think Nevada's fully ready to move out of the GOP camp -- too many of its Democratic voters are service employees who are busy cleaning up the casinos, or getting laid off and moving out.

I completely agree, however, that Michigan could be the big surprise for 2008. I think Obama could still win without Michigan, if he picks up Colorado, Virginia, Iowa and a few others. And I'm glad to see that you don't have Missouri on your list -- too many commentators still describe Missouri as a swing state, which is increasingly less true.

Posted by: Mervyn | September 12, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Forget the poster girl, focus on the real issue. Not drummed up sex and race issues, why is America in the crapper right now?

McCain has voted with the resident retard over 90% of the time. How is that Change?

McCain has voted with the resident retard over 90% of the time. How is that Change?

McCain has voted with the resident retard over 90% of the time. How is that Change?

McCain has voted with the resident retard over 90% of the time. How is that Change?

Posted by: duh | September 12, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

I like these state discussions. I see it about the same as you, CC. My list would be:

1. Iowa: McCain never campaigned in Iowa during the primaries in 2000 or 2004. Obama used this state as a stepping stone to the Presidency since headlining Tom Harkin's fish fry in 2006. Iowa lead Obama's big named victory over Clinton in the D primary. Iowa is definately leaning Obama big time. Pick up for Obama.

2. New Hampshire: McCain used NH as a focal point of his 2000 & 2008 primaries. Obama lost NH to Clinton this year. McCain's centrist streak & straight talk goes over well in NH. Sen. Gregg & Sarah Palin will have the base ready, and McCain could well take back NH in 08.

3. Colorodo: In 2004, Colorodo split the ticket. They voted Bush for President & Salazar for US Senate. In 2006, they elected a democratic governor, Bill Ritter. However, both GOP candiates, Coors & Beaprez, didn't set well with all of the base. Obama will have the democratic base ready big time in this state. Palin/Schaffer will have the conservative base ready to get out the vote in Colorodo. There is no clear favorite for Colorodo at this point. Colorodo is a true toss up.

4. Michigan: A usually reliable democratic state, it's not this year. Democratic governor Granholm is immensley unpopular and the Detriot mayor is going to jail. Michigan is propably the hardest hit state in the nation economically right now under Democratic control. McCain's establishment support from the Republican GOP in Michigan: Atty. General Mike Cox & Sec. of State Terri Land, helps too. Plus, McCain ran tough primaries in 2000 (beating Bush) and in 2008 (losing to Romney) in Michigan and still has those operatives ready to work. With the unpopular nature of the democratic establishment in Michigan combined with McCain's popularity of independents there, this leaves McCain with a great opportunity to pick up Michigan. Especially with Romney fighting hard for McCain in Michigan, this one will be a fight until the end.

5. New Mexico: It looked for a while like Tom Udall would sweep Steve Pearce and Obama would beat McCain badly. A new poll shows McCain ahead of Obama 49%-47%. That's close, but still a McCain edge. Last month polls showed Udall 61%-Pearce 34%. This month it's Udall 51%-Pearce 44%. That's a huge difference in 1 month. So the National Republican Senatorial Committee ain't running ads for Pearce. So what? Pearce won a tough primary without The RNSC against a tough challenge from US Rep. Heather Wilson. Pearce has the money to compete and is doing so. Also, the Club For Growth is expected to flood the airwaves bashing Udall's tax & spend habits. Also, 1 thing being overlooked, is that in late September US Senator Pete Domenici (St. Pete in NM) will be hitting the campaign trail in NM stumping for McCain, Pearce & White hard. Heather Wilson & Pat Lyons will also be campaigning hard for the Republicans. McCain has to be considered the favorite in New Mexico right now.

6. Nevada: I do understand that Nevada has a very unpopular Republican governor right now. He had some problems being sued for harrassment or something of that nature by a female waitress. However, Gov. James Gibbons is not on the ballot this go around and won't be again until 2010. This year it's the 3 congressional races & McCain vs. Obama...along with local elections of course. Harry Reid is the Democratic senate majority leader. John Ensign will be hitting the campaign trail hard for McCain & his House colleagues, and he's just as popular as Reid in Nevada. This pretty much evens things out on that front, and the candidates & issues come to the forefront. When this happens, the conservative nature of the state plays out and McCain/Palin wins Nevada.

7. Pennsylvania: With McCain's moderate streak & Obama's trouble gaining support from white small town folks combined with McCain's moderate streak and strong support from former Pa. governor Tom Ridge...McCain is in a strong spot in Pennsylvania. Pa. usually runs democrat in Presidential elections, but this year just seems to be a different year anyhow. Hillary Clinton beat Obama & Obama has never had the full fledged endorsement of Pa. gov. Ed Rendell. That's an issue for Obama. McCain is in good shape in Pa. this year for a Republican candidate in 2008, but I still give a very, very slight edge to Obama in Pa. due to the democratic nature of Pa.

8. Ohio: McCain is in great shape in Ohio. I don't think Obama can win a small town state that went overwhelmingly for Clinton in the Democratic primary. McCain is in great shape to win Ohio.

9. Virginia: At one time, it was thought that Obama would choose gov. Kaine as his running mate and Va. would truly help decide the election. This didn't happen. McCain has motivated the conservative base in Va. by putting Palin on the ticket and appeals to moderates in the state. Virginia is McCain's commonwealth to lose!

10. Wisconsin: McCain should have the strong support of Frmr. Republican governor Tommy Thompson. As Thompson campaigns hard for McCain in Wisconsin, it could give McCain a leg up in the state. The state usually leans slightly Democrat, but McCain's maverick steak could work well in the state. Obama has the edge, but it seems like McCain is gaining.

Posted by: reason | September 12, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

has voted with bush 75th of the time

Posted by: obama | September 12, 2008 1:06 PM | Report abuse

>>hugh wrote: "But there is resentment that after a year-and-a-half there is not one interview of Obama --who wants the top job not the understudy role-- remotely as tough, with sustained lines of questions on sensitive issues of foreign affairs peppered with probing interruptions. Not one."

All his solo "town halls" are also Invitation Only.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

In all serious.. we need a storng 3rd party in america

I am not a right wing zealot of a bleeding heath socialist liberal..

we seriously need a strong party in the middle

strong on defense
small govt
more liberal on some social issues
lower taxes

that is really what america needs

Posted by: 3rd Party | September 12, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

McCain has voted with the resident retard over 90% of the time. How is that Change?

Republicans for Obama/Biden

Posted by: McCain | September 12, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Baracky Hussein Obama has an extremely liberal Senate voting record - he cannot run and hide from that fact.

Democrats for John McCain and Sarah Palin in 2008

Posted by: Dennis | September 12, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

An Eli Lilly spokesman announced today that they are furiously attempting to gear up for a massive increase in Prozac manufacturing if John McCain wins the presidential election. They are unsure if they can meet the demand should the unthinkable occur, and comparisons to the Katrina disaster are being floated by some.

"We are not going to allow this to be a disaster on the scale of the government response to Katrina," said Phil Pauper of Eli Lilly. "We are ramping up production by 1 million pills each day, and that should cover the city of San Francisco's needs by the end of September. It is up to the state governments to supply enough grief counselors and distribution sites for our medication. We'll do our part, but we can't control the other factors. These people are going to lose it if Obama doesn't win the election. They will need to cling to their Prozac and Priuses to cope with the perceived redneck stupidity of racist country bumpkins who lack their inate understanding of politics and voted for John McCain."

Posted by: market prepares | September 12, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

It is nice to see that the truth has had an effect on Asspergirl, now fully noting that McCain's lead in Ohio is not 7%, but well within the margin of error, going by the RealClear average (though it's a dead heat once you throw out the wing-nut FOX News poll). Also nice to note that Asspergirl is acknowledging the 5% lead reported there for Obama by Quinnipiac, the most reputable poller. Too bad she is keeping up with the sock-puppetry.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Razorback:

Thanks for posting the tax record of Biden's. I saw the income numbers in an AP report, but of course they neglected to show the miserly charitable giving.

I called out the same thing back when Obama released his records this past spring. The media stories I read glowed about Obama's "generosity" in giving something like $200k to charities last year.

But I'm a financial analyst, and unlike most liberals I can do math. If you added up the Obama's income and charitable giving the past 6 years, they gave like 1.5% to charity. Average Americans give twice that rate. Seems $200k isn't all that charitable when you are signing 7-figure book deals.

That's what always amazes me about Democrats. They claim to be the party of compassion, but study after study has found the highest givers to charity (of both time and money) are by far conservatives. In other words, liberals are very compassionate....when they can spend the money the fleece from you via taxes. But don't ask them to be compassionate with their own money.

Posted by: dbw | September 12, 2008 12:54 PM | Report abuse

AsperGirl =

pretentious
Adjective
1. making (unjustified) claims to special merit or importance:
2. Claiming or demanding a position of distinction or merit, especially when unjustified.

Posted by: Ha | September 12, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

AsperGirl is like the girl that wants a doll in the store. When she doesnt get her way she cries and whines, like she is doing here now, and every post I have seen her write. Then if she still doesnt get her candy, aka Hillary she becomes a vile, venomous shrew, claiming sexism, reverse racism, Homosexual white men. Whatever to get her attention.

Has anyone noticed how she has called Obama elite, yet when challenged she has tendency to throw out as many 12-15 letter words to make herself appear smarter, yet still bungles all of the facts or inserts her opinions as fact. Elitists feel the need to try to throw out big words to try to confuse people to make a point.

You Like that? I used my opinion as fact like you to prove my point. Good gravy, maybe I can become AsperGuy and make an a$$ of myself.

Posted by: AsperGirl is a laughable idiot!! | September 12, 2008 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Are these the same evangelical voters who want us to all overlook Mrs. Palin's daughter's un-married pregnacy? Now don't get my wrong, I agree it's a personal matter for the family to deal with in private. But let's be honest here. I think we ALL know that if the tables were turned and the un-married pregnacy was on the dems side, we would never here the end of how the dems don't understand family values and how the "liberal" agenda led to the pregnacy. Go ahead conservatives. Go ahead and lie and say that you wouldn't have said that. I think we know the truth.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

The fact that Obama, as he claims, CAN'T see what is wrong with his words, is worse than if he did see what is wrong with them and apologized.

WE DON'T NEED AN INAPPROPRIATE GAFFE-MACHINE-COUPLE
AS HEAD OF STATE & FIRST LADY CAUSING
INTERNATIONAL INCIDENTS

LOW-CLASS CLUELESS GAFFES OF
"THE INAPPROPRIATE OBAMAS"

On McCain adding Sarah Palin to his ticket & calling that "change":
“Lipstick on a pig” & "it smells like a fish"

To Hillary saying I'm not as charming as he is: "You're likable enough" (smirk)

"Hold on sweetie"

Dismissing Hillary w/3 am cell phone text message announcing Biden

For the first time in my adult life I am proud of my country

America, my grandmother is a "Typical White Person"

Small town America: bitter and cling to religion and guns and antipathy toward people not like themselves

Surge was not a success (we lost the war)

Having an opinion about when a baby acquires rights: above my pay grade says "Constitutional Law Lecturer" Obama

Iran: a tiny country that cannot hurt us

I have visited 57 states in America

Behold the Obama Presidential Seal on my podium

I'll stop poverty, still rising seas, heal planet, redeem America from its ignorance

The Republicans will tell you not to vote for me because I don't look like the presidents on the dollar bills

The Republicans will tell you that I'm a Muslim

Americans: cynical, lazy, slobs, downright mean

GERMANS, I apologize for America

** Oh yeah, Head-of-State and First Lady material **

Michelle & Barack Obama may have spent a couple of years at Harvard decades ago, but they've spent the last 20 years sitting in the Ghetto-rant church of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Trinity Church, soaking up his political ideas about America & his social programming!

NOW THEY ARE TRASHY-GAFFE MACHINES

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Wow, hugh, that was mind-bogglingly dumb.

Obama just did an interview with Bill Freaking O'Reilly. Think he's going soft on him?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

The fact that Obama, as he claims, doesn't see what is wrong with his words, is worse than if he did see what is wrong with them and apologized.
WE DON'T NEED AN INAPPROPRIATE GAFFE-MACHINE-COUPLE AS
HEAD OF STATE & FIRST LADY CAUSING INTERNATIONAL INCIDENTS

LOW-CLASS CLUELESS GAFFES OF 
"THE INAPPROPRIATE OBAMAS"

On McCain adding Sarah Palin to his ticket & calling that "change":
“Lipstick on a pig” & "it smells like a fish"

To Hillary saying I'm not as charming as he is: "You're likable enough" (smirk)

"Hold on sweetie"

Dismissing Hillary w/3 am cell phone text message announcing Biden

For the first time in my adult life I am proud of my country

America, my grandmother is a "Typical White Person"

Small town America: bitter and cling to religion and guns and antipathy toward people not like themselves

Surge was not a success (we lost the war)

Having an opinion about when a baby acquires rights: above my pay grade says "Constitutional Law Lecturer" Obama

Iran: a tiny country that cannot hurt us

I have visited 57 states in America

Behold the Obama Presidential Seal on my podium

I'll stop poverty, still rising seas, heal planet, redeem America from its ignorance

The Republicans will tell you not to vote for me because I don't look like the presidents on the dollar bills

The Republicans will tell you that I'm a Muslim

Americans: cynical, lazy, slobs, downright mean

GERMANS, I apologize for America

** Oh yeah, Head-of-State and First Lady material **

Michelle & Barack Obama may have spent a couple of years at Harvard decades ago, but they've spent the last 20 years sitting in the Ghetto-rant church of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Trinity Church, soaking up his political ideas about America & his social programming!

NOW THEY ARE TRASHY-GAFFE MACHINES

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Hillary has always had high positives and negatives. The negatives excite the rep base. Palin has already done that so getting Hillary as VP as Biden suggested, maybe, seems like a smart move.

Posted by: JJ | September 12, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

But there is resentment that after a year-and-a-half there is not one interview of Obama --who wants the top job not the understudy role-- remotely as tough, with sustained lines of questions on sensitive issues of foreign affairs peppered with probing interruptions. Not one. Obama has always been allowed to filibuster, and every interviewer has retreated from attacks that have put Obama on the defensive. The cowing of the MSM by the left-wing bloggers is complete, and they know better than to push The One very hard.

That's just the way it is with a deeply-biased, almost openly partisan MSM, but a very, very media-savvy American public knows exactly what is going on. The voters' distaste for the great prop-up of Obama showed itself first in the late primaries where Hillary racked up win after win and now in the sudden shift of independents towards McCain-Palin.

Last week I wrote about Palin's appeal across the anti-freeze states. That appeal has since deepened, and the rallies are huge and growing wherever she travels. Americans like her, and dismiss the idea that she's not ready to be vice-president when the obviously unprepared whisp of a resume that is Obama is the nominee of the Democrats.

The MSM is clueless, and the Army of Sarahs is growing.

Posted by: hugh | September 12, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

This is not an objection to asking Palin tough questions. I don't think there is a serious objection to Charlie Gibson's tone or subject matter when he sat down with Palin. She answered all of his many questions with hardly a stumble, as opposed to Obumble's repeated pratfalls in debates past.

Posted by: hugh | September 12, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

" guess you must have slept through the 1990s when this country had the greatest stretch of Peace and Prosperity we've ever known."

I assume you are talking about the period of time known as the Gingrich revolution, where the congress was finally taken over by Republicans after 40 years and the rest of the government was forced to grow up and face facts.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 12, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

The Lords of Compassion strike again:

"For 2007, Mr. Biden and his wife Jill paid taxes of $66,273 on an adjusted gross income of $319,853 in 2007. Their income included $71,000 in royalties, presumably from his book. They had $62,954 in deductions, including $995 in gifts to charities and $38,712 in interest payments."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/12/biden-releases-tax-returns/

Joe Biden, struggling to make ends meet on only $300,000, managed to give about .3 % of his income to charitable purposes.

Yesterday, Obama was lecturing us all about how we should help our neighbor and be generous with our time and money. Perhaps he should have that conversation with Joe Biden in private.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

OHIO POLLS, WEEK of 09/07-Present

InAdv/PollPosition --- McCain 48, Obama 47, McCain +1
Univ. of Cinci ------- McCain 48, Obama 44, McCain +4
Strategic Vision (R) --- McCain 48, Obama 44, McCain +4
Quinnipiac --------- McCain 44, Obama 49, Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen- McCain 51, Obama 44, McCain +7

OHIO MOVES INTO MCCAIN COLUMN
RCP "POLL OF POLLS" AVERAGE FOR OH: McCain + 2.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

I found this ridiculous post from AsperGirl, and boy does she have a hard on for Obama and his followers. Some might say she is fanatically obsessed. What a loser!! The way she drooled over Hillary, she shouldnt talk!! HAHAAHA what a sorry excuse for a human. What does she have against White men, she is showing her racist and sexist tendencies. ASPERGIRL IS A HYPOCRITE!!! She might be Chelsea Clinton, or worse......Cindy McCain. Get off the pills you crack head. All of those posts about sexists and accused racists. What is accusing White men of having homosexual crushes on Obama then? YOU ARE A HYPOCRITE!!! HAHAAHA

The irrational love I'm referring to are the "man crushes" that white men (and some other people) develop on Obama. "Man crushes" are asexual love affairs that develop when one man, like a 12-year-old girl, idolizes another man. Joel Stein at the LA Times describes what is, essentially, his feelings of being in love with Obama (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-stein8feb08,0,3418234.column). The cognitive behaviors of "man crushes" are every bit the same as the cognitive behaviors of other crushes, right down to there being a projection of imagined nobility and unsubstantiated idealizations onto the object of one's love. I.e. one begins projecting ideal traits onto the object of one's crush, without justification. These "crush" behaviors, and others, are typical of Obama fans.

Posted by: AsperGirl is a laughable idiot!! | September 12, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

OK, I finally found myself this week. anyone want to hear??

Posted by: snObama | September 12, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Aspergirl,

You got any more lame lawsuits you want to bring up? That is just stupid, why dont you read the article in this paper about Cindy McCains drug addiction and her illegal ways of obtaining them....

Posted by: Idiots | September 12, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

No bickering here, types NoOneImportant, before bickering.

NoOneImportant is bickering about how ignorant "evangelicals" are.

The reason liberals have so much trouble dealing with "evangelicals" and values voters is because they believe their own lies about them.

NoOneImportant basically says that evangelicals are so ignorant and evil that no matter what "truth" is said about Palin, these idiot evangelicals will still like her.

When you believe your own lies and then act on them, something stupid always happens. I wish NoOneImportant was running the Obama campaign.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

No, not end of the discussion. You don't get to decide what's real and what isn't.

Text of Obama's statement:

"John McCain says he’s about change too. Exce- and and so I guess his whole angle is - watch out, George Bush - except for economic policy, healthcare policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy, and Karl-Rove-style politics, we’re really gonna shake things up in Washington.

That’s not change. That’s that’s just callin’ sumpin’ the same thing somethin’ different.

But you know, you can’t, you know, you you can put, ah, lipstick on a pig, it’s still a pig..."

Oops, AsperGirl. Trapped you with the facts again. How about watching the beginning of the line, too.

Posted by: JamesCH | September 12, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

With every primary and every repetition of the high-flown, self-referential rhetoric, the campaign's insubstantiality became clear. By the time it was repeated yet again on the night of the last primary (#3), the tropes were tired and flat. To top himself, Obama had to reach. Hence his triumphal declaration that history would note that night, his victory, his ascension, as "the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal."

Clang. But Obama heard only the cheers of the invited crowd. Not yet seeing how the pseudo-messianism was wearing thin, he did Berlin (#4) and finally jumped the shark. That grandiloquent proclamation of universalist puffery popped the bubble. The grandiosity had become bizarre.

From there it was but a short step to Paris Hilton. Finally, the Obama people understood. Which is why the next data point (#5) is so different. Obama's Denver acceptance speech was deliberately pedestrian, State-of-the-Union-ish, programmatic and only briefly (that lovely coda recalling the March on Washington) lyrical.

The problem, however, was that Obama had announced the Invesco Field setting for the speech during the pre-Berlin flush of hubris. They were stuck with the Greek columns, the circus atmosphere, the rock star fireworks farewell -- as opposed to the warmer, traditional, balloon-filled convention-hall hug-a-thon. The incongruity between text and context was apparent. Obama was trying to make himself ordinary -- and serious -- but could hardly remember how.

One star fades, another is born. The very next morning McCain picks Sarah Palin and a new celebrity is launched. And in the celebrity game, novelty is trump. With her narrative, her persona, her charisma carrying the McCain campaign to places it has never been and by all logic has no right to be, she's pulling an Obama.

But her job is easier. She only has to remain airborne for seven more weeks. Obama maintained altitude for an astonishing four years. In politics, as in all games, however, it's the finish that counts.

Posted by: chucky's back | September 12, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Would you call "TWO ABORTIONS" and pregnant again married before she was married irrelevant to those people?
Her abortions are the source of he stand on abortion. Many women have guilt their whole lives who have had an abortion.
October surprise I would say.

=======
WARNING: No clever turn of phrase nor witty personal attacks in this post. Pointless bickering is not a hobby of mine.

I think that there is a block of voters out there that have a very predicable behavior. The label attached to this block could be ‘loyal Bushies’ or perhaps ‘Evangelicals’. I’ll use the latter.

They vote for what they perceive as one of their own without condition. Once they’ve identified with this person, the mind closes and their vote is assured. Full stop.

What does this mean? (1) Troopergate is irrelevant. (2) Experience – or lack thereof – irrelevant. (3) Stand on issues and personal conduct – irrelevant. Taking an extreme view: Should Palin be sent to prison over Troopergate – her polling number will take only a modest dip.

In the past there have been various smoke-screens put up. Perhaps for self-image purposes, perhaps to avoid horrifying everyone else. ‘Family values’, ‘values voters’ and the like. Currently it's 'executive experience' or whatever Palin brings to the ticket (aside from being an Evangelical).

Unlike most blocks – Evangelicals vote for Vice President. McCain is free to use the most despicable and appalling campaign behavior, without consequence from the Evangelical block. McCain will not wish to campaign without Palin – because the Evangelical block that shows up to her events - will assure them lively and well attended. McCain’s campaign stops will be as before – calm and friendly affairs.

This 20 – 30% that make up Evangelical block is focused on, and will be lead by Palin, – not McCain.
Posted by: NoOneImportant | September 12, 2008 12:18 PM

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Financial Times, by Andrew Ward Democratic jitters about the US presidential race have spread to Capitol Hill, where some members of Congress are worried that Barack Obama’s faltering campaign could hurt their chances of re-election. Party leaders have been hoping to strengthen Democratic control of the House and Senate in November, but John McCain’s jump in the polls has stoked fears of a Republican resurgence.


can you spell obamentum. It means dragging those around you down in ever larger leaps.

Posted by: Obama discovers gravity | September 12, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

I guess I am clinging to my guns and religion.
I wish my liberal fellow Americans the best. I just don't understand why they persist in following ideas that have failed over and over again.
As Charles Barkley said, "poor people have voted for democrats for 50 years.....and they are still poor"

Posted by: the entire midwest | September 12, 2008 11:57 AM


Uh...I guess you must have slept through the 1990s when this country had the greatest stretch of Peace and Prosperity we've ever known. Also, you seem to be a bit forgetful about the last eight years, which most rational people would agree have been among our worst.

Posted by: NM Moderate | September 12, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

>>JamesCH wrote: "The question is, why is it ok for McCain to make similar statements about Hillary Clinton?"

McCain, as the text of his words make specifically clear, was talking about a "policy". Obama, on the other hand, was talking about the McCain-Palin ticket, and how it was being wrapped in the "change" theme.

>>"You are attempting to ignore part of the quote in order to fit your own interpretation. He said, "if you take an old fish and wrap it in a piece of paper called 'change', it will still stink AFTER EIGHT YEARS." At worst, Obama called Palin a piece of paper."

You know, you can parse and parse & say the grammar indicates this was the object of that modifier & etc. But the fact is that Obama's a rhetorical expert & he knows perfectly well that the memes in conjunction with a long, rambling discussion about the McCain-Palin ticket & its "change" theme, would juxtapose that imagery.

His audience had no doubt whatsoever what he meant, as the raucous cheering and clapping on hearing the words "lipstick on a pig" proved. Later, his audience was chanting "No pit bull!"

If you look at all the false accusations of racism the Obama camp has spewed out all year toward others, they make the "racial coding" argument. That is that "racially coded" memes (i.e. imagery that invokes or recalls some racial trait) is programmed into a speech criticizing Obama.

The false accusations "racial coding" that Obama's been making all year included false accusations that the 3 a.m. phone call was "racial coded" because white people might be afraid that a black man would pick up the phone. The instances over which the Obama camp has attacked his opponents with accusations of "racial coding" are absurd and not discriminatory. Clinton's 3 a.m. ad wasn't racially coded.

But if you want a prime, blatant example of a discriminatory-coded message, where bigoted imagery and memes are used in juxtaposition with attacks against a woman or minority opponent, Obama's "lipstick on a pig & smells like a fish" mockery of the McCain-Palin ticket is a classic. You even have the audience getting incited into jeering & hooting.

Look at the video again. It's a classic.

Now the point of my post is that the media, in waving off the "Lipstick on a pig" was a coincidental juxtaposition of an old phrase & that Obama forgot about, or was unaware of Palin's "pitbull in lipstick" tagline, overlooked that Obama didn't just tag the McCain-Palin ticket theme of "change" as 'lipstick on a pig" but also that it "smelled like a fish". My point is that the media has argued away the "pig" part but ignored the "fish" part. NO ONE has tried to argue that "old fish stink" is some kind of familiar political talk, or that a pig with lipstick on it that smells like a fish is some kind of coherent rhetoric for Mr. Rhetoric to come out with.

Your Obama is a trashy smear-mouthed SEXIST PIG and he's continuing to sink in polls due to his TRASHY GHETTO SMEAR.

End of discussion.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Obama's latest ad suggests that McCain is old and out of step with his fashion and inability to do email. This follows last night's televised protestations that Obama wanted a different campaign but would not agree to meet McCain 'anytime, anywhere' as he once promised in town halls (he will, if he falls further behind). This is not the hope and change we were promised.

Yeah, folks, the comedy is just beginning.

Posted by: vdh | September 12, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

I would be more careful about New Mexico. "A slam dunk" for the Dems sounds a little cocky. New polling shows there is still a chance for the R's here. Too early to tell.
Sty tuned.

Posted by: Joe | September 12, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

WARNING: No clever turn of phrase nor witty personal attacks in this post. Pointless bickering is not a hobby of mine.

I think that there is a block of voters out there that have a very predicable behavior. The label attached to this block could be ‘loyal Bushies’ or perhaps ‘Evangelicals’. I’ll use the latter.

They vote for what they perceive as one of their own without condition. Once they’ve identified with this person, the mind closes and their vote is assured. Full stop.

What does this mean? (1) Troopergate is irrelevant. (2) Experience – or lack thereof – irrelevant. (3) Stand on issues and personal conduct – irrelevant. Taking an extreme view: Should Palin be sent to prison over Troopergate – her polling number will take only a modest dip.

In the past there have been various smoke-screens put up. Perhaps for self-image purposes, perhaps to avoid horrifying everyone else. ‘Family values’, ‘values voters’ and the like. Currently it's 'executive experience' or whatever Palin brings to the ticket (aside from being an Evangelical).

Unlike most blocks – Evangelicals vote for Vice President. McCain is free to use the most despicable and appalling campaign behavior, without consequence from the Evangelical block. McCain will not wish to campaign without Palin – because the Evangelical block that shows up to her events - will assure them lively and well attended. McCain’s campaign stops will be as before – calm and friendly affairs.

This 20 – 30% that make up Evangelical block is focused on, and will be lead by Palin, – not McCain.

Posted by: NoOneImportant | September 12, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Biden: boss we got water comin in. that choice of the hot chick has really sunk my schtick

B hussain: We will need to go on the attack, call her inexperienced

Hair plugs: don't you think that may backfire, I mean after all, she knows more than you do?

Osama: this is the new politics remember - up is down, spending is saving, the surge was a failure, taxes lead to productivity, no one wanted hillary, debates are unnecessary, that wasn't the xxx I knew. get with the program joe.


fossil: It's just that we don't do it that way in DC. We rely on the press to do our dirty work.

OBL: they have left us for greener pastures joe. Now get working on my memorized lines for my McCain debate. I have to look good.

Posted by: overheard | September 12, 2008 12:15 PM | Report abuse

poor dems, they remind you of Charlie Brown, always lose no matter how hard they tried. The Obama campaign is headed to Dukasis/Adlai Stevenson land of wimpy liberal intellectual dems who do not understand the flyover states. Now we conservatives will get to stock the Supreme Court with more conservatives.

Posted by: bhoomes | September 12, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Remember, it was Michigan's Democrat Gov. Granholm and her cohorts who decided they wanted to shove their way to the head of the line in the primaries. It proved to be a costly miscalculation that (among other things) has made her state party extremely unpopular up there right now.

Ironically, the whole move-to-the-front effort in the primaries was because Granholm wanted to have a say in who became the nominee. Well, she may not have accomplished that, but she may well have gotten her wish by single-handedly determining who becomes President if her horrendous error in judgment causes her state to go toward McCain and cost Obama the election.

The blessed irony....

Posted by: dbw | September 12, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Avoid that sinking feeling:

Rasmussen 9/9/08 McCain 49 Obama 46
Democracy corps 48 46
Diageo 46 44
Gallup 48 44
Kos(Lib math) 45 47
Fox 45 42


Obama bin Biden - rearranging deck chairs on the titanic.

Posted by: ha ha | September 12, 2008 12:07 PM | Report abuse

"Final stretch"??? I have respected you up to now, Chris, but I'm beginning to wonder.

Posted by: turningfool | September 12, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

>> Heather wrote: "Just heard Politico.com's Roger Simon say something I just cannot believe!! He said maybe only 1000 people in the U.S. could define the Bush Doctrine! (I disagree with that!) But Mr. Simon, that is not the point! Sarah Palin is running to be VP - a heartbeat away from the PRESIDENCY!!!"

Actually, Charles Gibson was wrong in HIS definition of what the "Bush Doctrine" is.

There is no real theory or philosophy there, anyways. It's a fancy label applied to a stupid man's (Bush's) lame push to what is, some might say, "preemptively attack an enemy before they threaten you literally". There are many variations on what people think the "Bush Doctrine" is.

But Bush just wanted to attack Iraq & his neocons (Wolfowitz, Cheney, Rumsfeld) were in fact pushing for that from first taking office for reasons we can guess at but not know for sure.

There is no real political or military principle underlying it, just a desire to hit Iraq using some pretext that they eventually drummed up. "Bush Doctrine" is a polite hyperbolic label that the media affixed to identify what actually was "lame rationalization for striking someone who never threatened us".

I don't think you could honestly call it more than a rationalization and that the term "Bush Doctrine" is an affectation that will drop out of polite usage as soon as Bush is out of office & people can talk more openly about how his Administration just rationalized reasons for attacking.

But if there is a formal definition of it, Charles Gibson's explanation wasn't actually accurate. That's why the media can't attack Palin much for not answering well. Gibson, in trying to trick her with a not-that-meaningful question, bungled it himself. He guessed, accurately, that it wouldn't be in her briefings because it's not a real "doctrine", but then he screwed up himself on it by not doing the right research on his "gotcha" question attempt.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 12:03 PM | Report abuse

I live in Ohio, but find Michigan really interesting this time around (politically I mean; I still hate their football team).

You would think with the economic malaise hitting Michigan hardest, and the economy being the strongest card Obama has to play, Michigan should be leaning heavily towards Obama.

However, Michigan's current Democrat governor is immensely unpopular, the Democrat mayor of Detroit is getting his things together to report to jail, and the state Democrat party seems to be pretty much in disarray.

It will be interesting to see if the voters overlook the ineptness of their in-state Democrat party and still go for Obama. Or, will the state party's fall cause Obama to lose a big state that should have been his?

Posted by: dbw | September 12, 2008 11:59 AM | Report abuse

dbw gets it right.

Alot of voters in FL don't email.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 11:58 AM | Report abuse

I guess I am clinging to my guns and religion.
I wish my liberal fellow Americans the best. I just don't understand why they persist in following ideas that have failed over and over again.
As Charles Barkley said, "poor people have voted for democrats for 50 years.....and they are still poor"

Posted by: the entire midwest | September 12, 2008 11:57 AM | Report abuse

"Govenor Palin is what we can realate to in Ohio. She's the woman across the street, a woman with a whole lot of common sense and the ability to get things done."
------------------------------------------
Hmmm...Those same sentiments were used about another governor. About 8rys ago. A governor from Texas. And I think we all know how that turned out. I thought the same things about Mike Huckabee but that doesn't make him or anyone else qualified to president or vice-president. It that's the case let's head to the nearest soccor field and pick out any random hockey mom! Whether you're voting for McCain or Obama, it's about issues not who's likeable.

Posted by: herewegoagain | September 12, 2008 11:57 AM | Report abuse

Ultimately, this election is a rather classic left vs right encounter. all the experience, judgment, gaffes, etc, will melt away by November. no governor,including Reagan, Carter, Clinton have been prepared to answer esoteric foreign policy questions. It didn't mean that Reagan would fail or that the Dems would succeed. In fact, the L v. R issues was the measure of success - Reagan a brilliant win and carter a lowly loser with clinton close behind in palpable ignorance and fecklessness, leading the the 9/11 disaster.

So we will find out, is the country again ready to take a chance on free spending, immoral, surrender monkey, big government liberals again or have the 60s finally been left in the dust? Have we grown up into adults or are we still hopin and wishin adolescents?

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 12, 2008 11:55 AM | Report abuse

After wasting weeks trying to tear down Sarah Palin, the Obama people finally got it right goes after McCain on.....email?

Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, Obama. The girly man syndrome strikes again.

If you arnt tough enough to deal with Hillary and Palin, how can you be tough enough to deal with Putin and Iran?

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 11:55 AM | Report abuse

Wisconsin should be number 8

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:54 AM | Report abuse

"I don't answer your retarded, lying posts anymore. I included the links with my post. So if you have any Q, look it up instead of wasting my time with your inane Obama troll assignment of attacking all pro-McCain posts as lies.

You're wasting my time, you tool. Look at the links & stop bothering me with your harassing Q that are false accusations that I'm lying when you know perfectly well where to go for my info:"

I looked them up. They don't back up what you're saying (not even close). Even after pointing out your mistakes, you insist on misrepresenting the polls, which makes it odd that you assert that I have an agenda. It is one thing to back Obama and speak the truth, as I have done. It is quite another to shill for McCain with out and out lies, cut-and-pasting, and cherry-picking.

You can lie to us, but you can't lie to yourself.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 11:54 AM | Report abuse

I'm a McCain/Palin supporter in Ohio, but I have an honest question about Obama's latest attack ad focusing on McCain's age. Regardelss of whether you think McCain's age is a valid concern or not, should Obama even be touching the topic with a 10-foot pole considering how close it is in a critical state like Florida that has lots of retirees?

I just don't see what segment of undecided voters Obama thinks he can attract to his side by running an attack-ad on age, while he risks alienating a lot of voters in a critical state like Florida if the ad is even mildly perceived as making fun of old people.

Posted by: dbw | September 12, 2008 11:53 AM | Report abuse

Did you hear about what they dug up on McCain? He doesn't email. OMG.

Obama met with Clinton yesterday. Clinton must have said "Its the email, stupid".

Now they they have towed those styrofoam greek pillars back to Hollywood, we know what this election is really about.

ITS THE EMAIL, STUPID.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 11:52 AM | Report abuse

There is a lot of good stuff to use in a skit describing Palin. SNL should start off with the "protective nature" of Palin's VP candidacy.

Here's my idea:
Show Palin-type actress finish-up giving a generic stump speech and reporters wanting to ask her questions. As an internal monologue happens in Palin's mind of what she wants to say, all of a sudden a John McCain character jumps in to speak for her. Then another question is ask of her and she has another internal monologue that happens in her mind of what she wants to say, and a Lindsey Graham character jumps in to answer for her. On the third question from a reporter to Palin on the economy and she has another internal monologue in her mind of what she wants to say, but then off-the stage enters a talking Mitt Romney speaking for Palin.

Then on the fourth and final question posed to Palin, Palin starts another internal monologue but the voice is not that of a woman but a man whose voices sound like a mixture of McCain, Graham and Romney. In short, Palin has a "man's voice" and no voice of her own.

CLASSIC SEXISM!

Posted by: Obama-Junkie | September 12, 2008 11:51 AM | Report abuse

Wisconsin should be number 8

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:51 AM | Report abuse

zouk writes
"I agree with the notion that NV, CO and NM may flip to the dark side. also that NH will likely see the light and Pa will be razor close. But the idea that FL, OH, IA and VA will fall into the spell is imbecilic. ... consider my scenario, which is most likely and you will find that Mccain still wins."

The inclusion of Iowa (IA) in the imbecilic list is imbecilic. The exclusion of OH & VA from the competitive states is both delusional and imbecilic. The proposed scenario is clearly not the 'most likely'.

Posted by: bsimon | September 12, 2008 11:50 AM | Report abuse

No, AsperGirl, once again you are attempting to dodge the question.

The question is, why is it ok for McCain to make similar statements about Hillary Clinton?

You are attempting to ignore part of the quote in order to fit your own interpretation. He said, "if you take an old fish and wrap it in a piece of paper called 'change', it will still stink AFTER EIGHT YEARS."

At worst, Obama called Palin a piece of paper.

I can't change the fact that you're distorting this because you want to be offended, making it easier to lash out.

I just think that everyone else here should be innoculated from your particular brand of idiocy.

Posted by: JamesCH | September 12, 2008 11:49 AM | Report abuse

I hope Obama and his guru's continue to denegrate Sarah Palin.

It seems the more they do...the more McCain adds to his lead in the National polls and increses / closes the gaps in battlegound media states.

Leftist media. Keep at it!

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:47 AM | Report abuse

>> bondjedi wrote: "Asspergirl - why are you attacking Obama for saying 57 states? You don't seem concerned about taking Obama leads in the polls and calling them McCain ones."

I don't answer your retarded, lying posts anymore. I included the links with my post. So if you have any Q, look it up instead of wasting my time with your inane Obama troll assignment of attacking all pro-McCain posts as lies.

You're wasting my time, you tool. Look at the links & stop bothering me with your harassing Q that are false accusations that I'm lying when you know perfectly well where to go for my info:

Ohio polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

National polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

& NO I won't talk about it with you because you're a troll.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 11:46 AM | Report abuse

ALMOST ALL 10 STATES WILL END UP ON ONE SIDE OF THE LINE ON ELECTION DAY.

The party that makes the proper adjustment can have a big majority of these states. I think the key is Gov. Palin. If she could barely trim the edges off her squares, she can create a big shift in the polls.

Posted by: G. Girl | September 12, 2008 11:45 AM | Report abuse

someone calling themself 'the entire midwest' says
"I am comfortable with Governor Palin's qualifications for vice president. If something happened that caused her to become President wouldn't she have additional experience? I can't imagine anything more hostile and salacious than the treatment she is getting from the folks on these and other blogs."


You can't imagine a VP or President facing anything more hostile than the treatment Palin is getting from anonymous bloggers?

What a ridiculous thing to say.

What makes Gov Palin unqualified for the job, in my opinion, is her apparent lack of understanding of any of the issues we face at the national level. She seems quite able to memorize a set of talking points and vague banalities, but when faced with an unexpected question or a term she wasn't prepped with (for example 'Bush Doctrine'), she's lost. Neither the VP nor the Presidency is a job that one can qualify for with two months of cramming.

Posted by: bsimon | September 12, 2008 11:44 AM | Report abuse

"I think you're too late to deploy that particular dirty strategy. The media has no credibility anymore. Real people are tuned out to the Obama-dominated echo chamber."

Right. Real people are attuned to the wing-nut blogosphere that will tell them that the earth is flat and McSame is going to win in Washington State.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 11:43 AM | Report abuse

Just heard Politico.com's Roger Simon say something I just cannot believe!! He said maybe only 1000 people in the U.S. could define the Bush Doctrine! (I disagree with that!) But Mr. Simon, that is not the point! Sarah Palin is running to be VP - a heartbeat away from the PRESIDENCY!!! She, of ALL people, SHOULD be ONE of those '1000 people' who know what the Bush Doctrine is!!! Some in the media, like Roger Simon, are setting the bar SO LOW for Palin that they are actually burying it underground!! Simon just said that Palin will have time to get up to speed on all of these 'terms!' Mr. Simon, we have had eight years of a president who has STILL not gotten up to speed! And look at the mess this country is in! When I think of the eminently QUALIFIED people McCain COULD have chosen - Condi Rice, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Romney, etc. - it is a slap in the face to give us someone who is so obviously intellectually UNCURIOUS that she would look like a 'deer in the headlights' on a question like the Bush Doctrine.


Posted by: Heather | September 12, 2008 11:43 AM | Report abuse

Forget Bush. History is going to have a field day documenting how our generation ran the world's greatest country off a cliff.

Posted by: Deficits Dont Matter | September 12, 2008 11:35 AM

------

Ya, so let's go put our head back in the sand, and pretend that there are not people who don't like us.

Let's 'Hope' that it all goes away.

Let's 'Hope' nothing happens.

The cost of not preparing, and taking the battle to the Cowards would be far, far greater in the cost of human lives and cleanup of a Nuclear or Chemical attack.

The Reagan and Bush tax policies created the laregest revenue years for the federal government.

Thank God we had George W in the oval office. had any other president be there (rep or dem) i doubt we would have gone seven years.

History will judge him much better than the angry leftist media.

Posted by: Obama2012 | September 12, 2008 11:43 AM | Report abuse

Barring a late gaffe by McCain (if the MSM even reports it) you can butter and jam Senator Obama, he is toast. If Michigan is THE battleground state, he loses. The soft Republican states are no more, Washington has moved to soft Democrat and the Obama campaign is totally in denial and disorientation. Do they really believe McCain's inability to use the internet will be decisive? McCain will outdebate Obama who apparently cannot help putting 12 "uhs and ahs" in every answer. McCain could easily come close to 300 EV's.

Posted by: Sid Finkel | September 12, 2008 11:41 AM | Report abuse

>> JamesCH wrote: "You're completely ignoring two things: ...Otherwise, your hypocrites and liars of the highest order. That, or you're just really, really naive and stupid."

You're completely ignoring the one point of my post:

WHAT KIND OF PIG WITH LIPSTICK ON IT ALSO SMELLS LIKE A FISH?

Your Obama is a trashy, inappropriate man. It was over 20 years ago that he spent a brief couple of years at law school. For the last 30 years he's spent most of his life in South Side Chicago, regularly getting his social programming from Rev. Wright in the pews of Trinity Church.

YOUR TRASHY SEXIST PIG is the only pig on a ticket this year.

And that whole media/Obama campaign push to label the McCain-Palin ticket as liars is going to fail. Your new push is to stream lies out about those two (which the media & the Obama campaign have been doing almost non-stop anyways), but then follow the dirty smears with cries of "LIAR LIAR"!

That's an old, old campaign strategy of spewing lies about your opponent all the while having supporters bashing them as liars an mud-slingers.

I think you're too late to deploy that particular dirty strategy. The media has no credibility anymore. Real people are tuned out to the Obama-dominated echo chamber.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

I am in Florida and Mccains ad's are just short of a waste of money. They run on cheap stations and often in the middle of the night. Also most of his negative ad's are meaningless. Many don't run anywhere other then youtube. No one would see them at all if not for the media showing them. The thing is, only news junkies watch all those shows. In the end they don't really amount to much. You need to buy ad's during "Wheel of fortune" and "Oprah" like Obama does. His ad's run in prime time not 2am in the morning.

=========
The fact that the McCain campaign now has television ads up in Florida may mean this strategy is working.

Posted by: John in Mpls | September 12, 2008 11:20 AM

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:29 AM

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

"And for 28 years now, we've been sending a heck of a lot more Republicans than Democrats."


do you moonbats understand that for the entire last century, the Dems have pretty much ruled the government, except for 1994 until two years ago, which roughly cooincides with the largest economic expansion in history.

Get a clue demwits.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 12, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

Asspergirl - why are you attacking Obama for saying 57 states? You don't seem concerned about taking Obama leads in the polls and calling them McCain ones.

Please post something from Hannity or Rush in response. Or let us know when we will be seeing the Michelle Obama "whitey" speech you have been promising but are yet to deliver.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 11:37 AM | Report abuse

What stuns me is people who have spent 8 years watching W and Dick -- two very experienced dudes -- screw up one thing after another.

Try this one on for size. My kid is going to pay roughly $800,000 in taxes over his lifetime JUST to pay off the debt run up by Reagan, Bush and Bush.

Someday we're going to figure out our dysfunctional government is the government we deserve. Washington is broken because of the people we elect. And for 28 years now, we've been sending a heck of a lot more Republicans than Democrats.

Forget Bush. History is going to have a field day documenting how our generation ran the world's greatest country off a cliff.

Posted by: Deficits Dont Matter | September 12, 2008 11:35 AM | Report abuse

Who are you listening to, he raised 60 million this month, the most ever. From what we see next month will be off the charts, we are all maxing out now for the last big push. You don't take something this far and fight this long and hard, 19 months, without reaching for the finish line. Like it or not we are prepared to rip Mccains stubby little arms off his body and shove them up Palins as& if we have to. The stakes are too high.

))))))))))))))

I like the visual in your last lines.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:33 AM | Report abuse

Chris, this is my question on Pennsylvania: If Kerry took the state by 51 percent four years ago, what in the world has made it a better place for Republican chances since that date?

The economy has gone south, the war has deteriorated badly, the mortgage crisis has exploded, and jobs have disappeared. Nothing that has happened here has made this a better environment for John McCain.

Also the hard-fought Democratic primary increased voter registration by astronomical numbers. So Dems are fired up and eager to get to the polls, Republicans are turned off by the Bush-led economic decline and by the anti-choice, moose-shooting Sarah Palin.

PA looks like a winner for Obama this year.

Posted by: dee | September 12, 2008 11:31 AM | Report abuse

Who are you listening to, he raised 60 million this month, the most ever. From what we see next month will be off the charts, we are all maxing out now for the last big push. You don't take something this far and fight this long and hard, 19 months, without reaching for the finish line. Like it or not we are prepared to rip Mccains stubby little arms off his body and shove them up Palins as& if we have to. The stakes are too high.

========
I'm not sure money spent by the Obama campaign is a waste at this point, Anymous (11:05 AM). Even though he may not be rasiing as much money as he had initially hoped, the fact of the matter is Obmama should still have a 2 to 1 or even a 3 to 1 spending margin over McCain, who is using public funding.

This means that his campaign can spend money in Florida, if only as a means to get the McCain campaign to respond by spending money there as well. It may be a lost cause for Obama in terms of the vote, but in terms of money, it can serve to divert McCain funds from other key swing states.

The fact that the McCain campaign now has television ads up in Florida may mean this strategy is working.

Posted by: John in Mpls | September 12, 2008 11:20 AM

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:29 AM | Report abuse

OBAMA'S ON-CAMERA ENTREATIES CAN'T TACKLE A TOUGH GAL.

ONLY A "HAIL HILLARY" PLAY CAN SECURE THE WIN

• Too Late to Hope for a Palin Implosion?

Media-spawned images -- the good-lookin' tough gal with a heart of gold and an acid tongue, for example -- die hard.

Last night's Sarah Palin interview with Charlie Gibson seems to have served as something of a Rorschach test, depending on viewer predisposition: If you think the novice Alaska governor lacks the qualifications and gravitas for the job, the session reinforced your feelings. If you admire Palin's spunk and her Annie Oakley style, you came away with your prejudices reinforced.

Nuanced advertising that tries to school voters on the difference between "real" change as opposed to opportunistic "change" -- ads like the new Obama spot, where he appeals plaintively into the camera -- just can't keep a tough gal down.

Obama, a former college professor, still seems to think he can tutor voters into seeing the light. But a "real" change" versus "phony change" argument misses the point. Why is Obama afraid to tell it like it is? Just come out and say what many thinking people believe, Barack:

Putting a novice with extreme views heartbeat away from the presidency endangers American interests and the American people.

Voters who are enamored with Palin's media-spun Annie Oakley image may not come to their senses soon enough. With just over seven weeks before Election Day, it's too late for subtlety.

If Obama's real message to voters is that Palin represents a risk that America can't afford to take, he's got to sledge-hammer home that point. All the media spending in the world can't compensate for a candidate whose message is muddied by the self-defeating nicety of nuance.

It's been said that Obama doesn't want to come off as an "angry black man." But that view itself is an exercise in reverse racism. There's no time now for laying the message between the lines. Obama's got to come out and say in his advertising what most thinking people believe:

The nomination of Sarah Palin for vice president threatens the safety and well-being of America and its people and displays reckless irresponsibility on the part of John McCain and the GOP.

If the Obama camp continues to muddy that message, they will lose. Indeed, even with a more strident media message, it still man be too late for it to stick.

Perhaps the only thing that can improve Obama's waning prospects at this late hour is a "Hail Mary" play of his own:

Ask Joe Biden to withdraw from the ticket, either for reasons of his health or for the good of the party, and replace him with the candidate who can once again put the Dems out in front: Hillary Clinton.

Biden's a shrewd politician as well as a party loyalist. He knows he'd be better off as a noble kingmaker than as a three-time loser in presidential politics.

It wouldn't surprise me if Bill Clinton suggested a VP lateral play during his lunch session with Obama on Thursday. If Obama is smart, he won't say no to Hillary this time.

Sticking to the same game plan that worked for Obama in the primaries won't cut it in the general election. And hoping that the slickly-packaged Palin will implode could be an exercise in wishful thinking at this late juncture.

Obama's carefully crafted strategy has been up-ended by a true game-changer. Now it's time for Barack to reclaim the game with his own stunner:

A "Hail Hillary" play, the only viable option left in his fourth-quarter playbook.

____________________________________________

TO: Mssrs. CHERTOFF, MUKASEY, PAULSON, GATES, McCONNELL, MUELLER

"GOV'T AGENCIES SUPPORT DOMESTIC TERRORISM"
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/government-agencies-support-domestic-torture-and-gang-stalking-says-noted-nowpublic-com-columnist

What do you know about this, and what are you doing about it?

Posted by: scrivener | September 12, 2008 11:28 AM | Report abuse

THE MEDIA THINKS IT'S COOL TO PICK AT PALIN'S RELIGION
WHY IGNORE ALL OF OBAMA'S RELIGION GAFFE'S??

OBAMA BLOOPERS IN WHCH HE TALKS LIKE A MUSLIM

Obama is known for always speaking very carefully & precisely (it's his gift). Except when he's talking about his religion or when he's making "Muslim bloopers".

:: BARACK OBAMA: "MY MUSLIM FAITH" ::

In an interview of Obama on September 7, George Stephanopolous asked Obama about his accusations that the McCain campaign are going to accuse him of being Muslim. Obama goes into a 2 minute answer that includes the blooper "my Muslim faith".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUYHFlGb2Ng&feature=iv

At minute 1:34 Stephanopolous asks Obama about why he makes accusations that the McCain campaign is going to accuse him of being Muslim, when the McCain has condemned people making those accusations.

At minute 2:49 Obama says: "You're absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Muslim faith."

George Stephanopolous steps in and corrects him to say "Christian faith" and then Obama agrees and says "Christian faith". But then what Obama was going to say doesn't make sense anymore because that would be, "You're absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Christian faith."

Obama then has to spend the next 15 seconds regrouping to make a point ("John McCain has not suggested I was a Muslim.")

:: OBAMA THINKS THE U.S. HAS "57 STATES" ::

You can watch Obama's statement that he's visited "57 states".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws

This is no joke, he really said this. This was no "slip", he pauses & thinks about it!

What American would forget that? And why would he pick the number "57" out of the air?

Everyone knows that we have 50 states. But there is a union that has 57 states in it: the nation of Islam. The Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is an international organization with a permanent delegation to the United Nations. It has 57 Islamic member states, from the Middle East, Africa, Central Asia, Caucasus, Balkan, Southeast Asia, South Asia and South America.

This is kind of an important slip coming from a candidate who is African-Arab by racial heritage, Muslim by birth who claims to now be Christian, who was raised abroad in an Islamic state (Indonesia) with a Muslim stepfather, who traveled to Pakistan using his Indonesian-citizenship passport at age 20 when he was supposed to be a U.S. citizen and Americans weren't supposed to go to Pakistan, who belonged for 20 years to a Church that publishes pro-Hamas material and whose leadership has close ties to the Nation of Islam, and who has been endorsed by Hamas.

:: TOO-LONG, BABBLE-ANSWER ON THE QUESTION WHAT IS THE MEANING OF JESUS IN HIS LIFE ::

You can also watch Barack Obama's too-long, wandering, lame response to the question: what is the meaning of Jesus in his life. He starts kind of okay with a trite answer, but then gets lost and stops making sense until he ends up claiming that Jesus makes him try new things like running for President after Rev. Warren starts making noises that signal to Obama he needs to cut it off.

http://www.youtube.com/v/gHtAWPjzvyk&rel=0&color1=11645361&color2=13619151&fs=1

Afterward, Obama declares that was a tough question, whereon Rev. Warren says, "Oh no, that was a freebie, a gimme."

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 11:28 AM | Report abuse

CC - I agree with the notion that NV, CO and NM may flip to the dark side. also that NH will likely see the light and Pa will be razor close. But the idea that FL, OH, IA and VA will fall into the spell is imbecilic.

consider my scenario, which is most likely and you will find that Mccain still wins.

will all you whiiey angry babies move to France or Canada after you lose -----AGAIN.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 12, 2008 11:28 AM | Report abuse

I am comfortable with Governor Palin's qualifications for vice president. If something happened that caused her to become President wouldn't she have additional experience? I can't imagine anything more hostile and salacious than the treatment she is getting from the folks on these and other blogs.
I am not comfortable with Obama's qualifications. His most recent discomfort with the advances in the McCain Campaign (especially with the addition of Palin) seem to have more fully exposed his inadequate experience and mettle for the presidency.

Posted by: The entire midwest | September 12, 2008 11:27 AM | Report abuse

JamesCH, the (cheers) that you quote is what gives you away. Whatever Obama meant, it is clear how the crowd took it. They didn't cheer after the fish remark.

The real "hypocrites and liars of the highest order" are the crybabys that talk about taking remarks out of context, while doing the same thing to McCain about the so called 100 years war. The real hypocrit is you James, because you have no problem taking statements out of context of people you disagree with, but when it happens to someone you agree with, you whine and complain.

Ask yourself this question: If Obama had it all to do over again, would he say the same thing? The obvious answer is no, because he knows he screwed up.

Those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 11:25 AM | Report abuse

You are right about the democrats. I go to the Obama headquarters and everybody wants to volunteer. It turns out a lot were complacent thinking Obama had a lock. I am glad they got a wake up call. Last month Obama set a new record for money with almost 60 million in one month and that was without doing any fund raiser to speak of. This month it will be off the charts maybe 70 or 80 million who knows. My wife and I both gave $500.00 and have to see how close we are to maxing out for the final month. It is going to be close but I am happy with what I see. Obamas own polling does not agree with the small polls done you see on TV. His shows he may be well ahead. Mccain does his own polling as well and I think he believes Obama is well ahead also. At the time they looked to most to be even mCCain made his hail mary with Palin. That is because he knew it was not even and he needed to do something desperate. Mccain and Obama both have a better handle on what is going on then the TV talking heads.

===========
This weekend will be McCain's high water mark. Just like with Geraldine Ferraro (they energized their base but lost, remember?), her star is at it's apex and she is going to start having to interact and show her ignorance (Bush Doctrine, what's that?).

Palin has also energized the Dem base too. My friends here in California are volunteering en masse to go East to Nevada and other swing states.
It'll be an Obama (slight) landslide by the end.
Posted by: John K. | September 12, 2008 11:09 AM

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:21 AM | Report abuse

I'm not sure money spent by the Obama campaign is a waste at this point, Anymous (11:05 AM). Even though he may not be rasiing as much money as he had initially hoped, the fact of the matter is Obmama should still have a 2 to 1 or even a 3 to 1 spending margin over McCain, who is using public funding.

This means that his campaign can spend money in Florida, if only as a means to get the McCain campaign to respond by spending money there as well. It may be a lost cause for Obama in terms of the vote, but in terms of money, it can serve to divert McCain funds from other key swing states.

The fact that the McCain campaign now has television ads up in Florida may mean this strategy is working.

Posted by: John in Mpls | September 12, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

I like to see the sock puppets manufactured in the last half-hour in response to the poll cherry-picking that has been BUSTED. That's the GOP brand, though - keep repeating a lie often enough, and hopefully 50.1% of the country will fall for it.

My question is - if McSame/Palin is such a great ticket, why is it necessary to exaggerate/lie about their performance, and do it so brazenly? Unsuccessful in their attempts to assert that McCain has a lead in the Ohio polls, Asspergirl and her sock puppets are in some fantasy world that McShame is about to pull Washington, Wisconsin, and New Jersey out of his hat. In a vain try to bolster the credibility of their erratic posts, they post links to the results, even though those numbers don't match up (not even close) about what is being asserted.

But hey, it worked with Iraq, John Kerry, McCain in 2000 - throw the lie out there, no one will check it out.

What Chris asserts in his conjectural electoral map holds up - the polling data available points to an Obama/Biden electoral win in November.

I would hope that this would be greeted with stony silence, but instead expect my righteousness to be confirmed by another tired AssperGirl cut-and-paste hate piece from Michelle Malkin or Ann Coulter about Obama being born in Indonesia.

Asspergirl and assorted sock puppets: Why not follow your bogus poll arc to the next phase, and post a link to the cans of Obama whoop-ass polls in Illinois, California, and New York, and identify them as likely McLie victories?

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

"You can put, uh, lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig. (cheers) You know, you can, uh, you know, you can, uh, you -- you -- you can wrap an old fish in a -- in a piece of paper and call it change, it's still going to stink after eight years"

You're completely ignoring two things:

1) "you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig" is a old and common turn of phrase. John McCain, in fact, has used it multiple times, sometimes while talking about proposals made by Sen. Hillary Clinton. Are you then granting the premise that McCain is calling Hillary Clinton a pig, too?

2) You're also ignoring the last three words of the quote. Sen. Obama said "after eight years," an explicit reference to Bush policy being repackaged by McCain/Palin as something new. Otherwise, by your twisted logic, you're now telling us that Sarah Palin is eight years old. Therefore, she would be constitutionally ineligible to be President or VP, therefore the McCain/Palin ticket is invalidated.

Otherwise, your hypocrites and liars of the highest order. That, or you're just really, really naive and stupid.

Posted by: JamesCH | September 12, 2008 11:14 AM | Report abuse

Pitbull in lipstick?
Palin looked much more like a Caribou in the Headlights.

That was a strike out without swinging last night. Did she give any real answer at all to Gibson's questions? EVERY word she said was rehearsed right wing propaganda.

The shooting star is crashing back to earth.
Up Next: Republicans claim the law of gravity is sexist!

Posted by: Reality sinking in | September 12, 2008 11:13 AM | Report abuse

This weekend will be McCain's high water mark. Just like with Geraldine Ferraro (they energized their base but lost, remember?), her star is at it's apex and she is going to start having to interact and show her ignorance (Bush Doctrine, what's that?).

Palin has also energized the Dem base too. My friends here in California are volunteering en masse to go East to Nevada and other swing states.
It'll be an Obama (slight) landslide by the end.

Posted by: John K. | September 12, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

And this 2008 election poll says it all.
You won't believe these results!

http://www.votenic.com

Instant Results!

Posted by: brandon | September 12, 2008 11:06 AM | Report abuse

I think that Va will go for Obama. Saying Va is conservative except for NOVA is almost like saying that New York is conservative except for NYC [it is not quite there yet, but its getting closer]. Granted, there are lots of military folks who might go McCain, but I think that Obama's performance in the primary suggests he's got a good shot at winning this thing.

I think he has a shot in NC too.

I think he's wasting money in Florida.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 11:05 AM | Report abuse

THE MEDIA IGNORED THE SECOND PART OF OBAMA'S SMEAR:
"Lipstick on a pig" & "IT SMELLS LIKE FISH"

Obama didn't just say the McCain-Palin ticket was "lipstick on a pig" he also said it smells like a fish.

"You can put, uh, lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig. (cheers) You know, you can, uh, you know, you can, uh, you -- you -- you can wrap an old fish in a -- in a piece of paper and call it change, it's still going to stink after eight years"

Obama on the McCain-Palin ticket: lipstick on a pig & it smells like a fish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPd4yk0x-eg

That's about as presidential as when Obama gave Hillary Clinton the old "face scratch finger" & then grinned about it while it sinks in & crowd gets excited.

Obama gives Hillary Clinton the "face scratch finger" & then grins
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoOFp-RDpvM&NR=1

If Obama gets elected, how long before he creates some international incident with his inappropriate gaffes? How can such a trash-talker be our head of state?

HOW CAN THE MEDIA GET AWAY WITH COVERING UP FOR HIM?

-- bondjedi

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 11:05 AM | Report abuse

Polls are just as reliable as wapo is. Best to campaign as if you were 20 points behind at all times. Polls can be used as propaganda by the "steno pool" we call our "free" press, so talk to real people in your reality-based community and keep up the registration and gotv, to hell with polls. As it is, being a (D) is a good way to signify "CHANGE" and that's what we are going to get this time, no doubt.

Posted by: PreAmerikkkan | September 12, 2008 11:04 AM | Report abuse

Anyone who says either McCain or Obama will take more than 300 Electoral votes is just plain wrong, it won't happen. The way the electoral math is working out, it's going to be a close election, and it's going to be down to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio to decide it. Like The Fix, I have Ohio as the deciding state, and I think it would go for McCain if the vote was today, but we're still a month out, so all is to play for.

Posted by: Breandan | September 12, 2008 11:04 AM | Report abuse

Bob H, the brother in law you defend tasered a 10 year old. If the trooper in question had been Palin's brother instead of brother in law, liars like you would be attacking Palin for being soft on domestic violence.

Obama and Biden voted for the bridge you seem to have a problem with, and Palin killed it.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Look to the Northwest, Chris. As of today, Washington is just +2 Obama. He should move that staff in Georgia and North Carolina and move them up to Oregon and Washington.

Posted by: Ken P. | September 12, 2008 10:55 AM | Report abuse

THE MEDIA IGNORED THE SECOND PART OF OBAMA'S TRASHY SMEAR:
"Lipstick on a pig" & "SMELLS LIKE FISH"

Obama didn't just say "lipstick on a pig" but he also said "it" smells "like a fish."

"You can put, uh, lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig. (cheers) You know, you can, uh, you know, you can, uh, you -- you -- you can wrap an old fish in a -- in a piece of paper and call it change, it's still going to stink after eight years. We've had enough of the same old thing. It's time to bring about real change to Washington."

Obama: lipstick on a pig & smells like a fish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPd4yk0x-eg

If Obama gets elected, how long before he creates some international incident with his inappropriate gaffes? How can such a trash-talker become out head of state?

HOW CAN THE MEDIA GET AWAY WITH COVERING UP & LYING FOR OBAMA?

--bondjedi

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 10:52 AM | Report abuse

So let me get this right. The same Obama that says we need to talk about the issues and avoid negativity launches a negative attack because McCain doesn't use email.

So the new qualification for president is using email? I guess that make Palin overqualified.

Meanwhile, the same liars and hypocrits who are parsing and twisting every word that Sarah Palin said in her interview offer this tidbit of wisdom regarding Joe Biden:

"Mr. Wade said that Mr. Biden’s stumbles proved to voters that he was human and that they helped them relate to the candidate."

They have one standard for themselves, and another standard for everyone else, just like the Hollywood elitists that they are. No wonder they are dropping in the polls.

Posted by: Razorback | September 12, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

You could be right about the selfless John McCain, "the entire midwest", but what happens when the selfless John McCain dies and the "fire my brother-in-law", "no bridge, but I'll keep the money" VP becomes the leader of the free world? Also, is it selflessness or ambition that makes non-Admiral McCain click?

Posted by: Bob H. | September 12, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

Chris,

I disagree with your analysis on Virginia. It is true that northern virginia represents the most Democratic area of the state, but the success experienced by Democrats since '05 has come not just in Northern Virginia. The key areas are the suburban and exurban areas, which have been moving Democratic over the last three cycles. If you discount the latest poll (McCain +6), which I do, you have a race where Obama has been ahead slightly or tied since the start of the campaign.

I think that Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are the top Democratic targets.

Posted by: Michael | September 12, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

"You conveniently skipped the latest Washington polls, where McCain is behind by only 2 points. He's even in striking distance in NJ and WI -- at least as much as Obama is in FL.

At some point, you need to start writing based on actual facts on the ground, and not based on your own personal wishes."

As an Evergreen stater, that total seems way off, so I checked. As usual, it's typical wing-nut cherry-picking. Other polls show Obama with double digit leads here, and the RCP average is Obama +6.

And Obama is up on the average in WI 5.3, and 8.7 in NJ, hardly McCain "striking distance." Don't call Chris on his facts until you get yours straight.

Try again.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 10:45 AM | Report abuse

MORE proof that McCain's national tracking poll surge is real & not limited to Red states: Washington State may come into play as it is moving toward McCain, too.

Obama's numbers in WA have moved from being double-digits ahead to being up by TWO points. LOL.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wa/washington_mccain_vs_obama-576.html

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 10:45 AM | Report abuse

In the end, you know, it really boils down to one question - do you want to live or (literally) die? The economic models are trending toward the worst case senario. By the time McCain wakes up to the fact that his proposed policies will make it even worse, it will be far too late . It is, in all honesty, problematic, that even Obama honestly understands the danger of the present situation, but he has made a few concrete and sane proposals that will allow us to perhaps survive as a nation... If there are enough racist rednecks in PA, MI, and other places that they actually do elect McCain, they and their children will loose heir jobs and hope of one, their homes, their neighborhood as people turn against each other, and likely their lives as the government crumbles along with the economy. Sad to say it, but if you vote for McCain you are a traitor and will reap exactly what you deserve. If you vote for Obama, you are being insanely optimistic and if you don't keep your eye on him, however, you can expect pretty much the same thing.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | September 12, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

info writes
"You conveniently skipped the latest Washington polls, where McCain is behind by only 2 points. He's even in striking distance in NJ and WI -- at least as much as Obama is in FL."

Don't get your panties in a bunch. He limits the list to 10 states. Personally, I'd probably rank FL 10th. But 'info' - if you think NJ & WI should be on the Line, what states would you kick off?

Posted by: bsimon | September 12, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Chris, I take exception to your opening sentence. Final stretch? We still have almost two months left.

Also, re: Michigan. If only the economy were the central issue in this election. We've returned to the culture wars, mud-slinging, and gotcha journalism of years past. Still, I agree that Michigan stands a chance to be ground zero in November, because the above resonate well there, too.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

"Do we really know what their impact will be?"

We don't. Pollsters tell us they are doing everything they can to properly account for cell-only households. Truth be told, the cell-only households generally overlap the demographic that typically doesn't turn out on election day. The Obama campaign says they'll turn out. If they do, it'll be a nice surprise & a big change from historical patterns. Someone posted a note below that it'll basically offset the 'Bradley' effect. We'll see...

Posted by: bsimon | September 12, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

That lame cell phone argument was used by Paul in the primaries, too. It didn't work for him, either.

Pollsters do use cell phone numbers.

Posted by: info | September 12, 2008 10:34 AM | Report abuse

Asspergirl - thank you for the info about the wacko lawsuit. It is for zaniness like that your posts are looked forward to. Please post updates, like when the judge throws it out.

Do the wing nuts have any legal theories about the earth being flat or faked lunar landings? Please post.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 12, 2008 10:34 AM | Report abuse

You conveniently skipped the latest Washington polls, where McCain is behind by only 2 points. He's even in striking distance in NJ and WI -- at least as much as Obama is in FL.

At some point, you need to start writing based on actual facts on the ground, and not based on your own personal wishes.

Posted by: info | September 12, 2008 10:32 AM | Report abuse

I wonder how accurate these polls actually are given that young adults typically only have a cell phone, not a land line for pollsters to call.

Case in point, I have a 23 year old and a 34 year old both living on their own and both only with cell phones,

Do we really know what their impact will be?

Posted by: nj | September 12, 2008 10:23 AM | Report abuse

Nice map, but how many of us have memorized the electors for each state? Totals would help a lot.

Posted by: Gary E. Masters | September 12, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

Obama's ads are lame. He needs a new ad person, McCain's are much better.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 10:18 AM | Report abuse

Mark in Austin: Culling? As in striking voters off the lists? Like they show up to vote and get told that they can't because they have been struck? Yes, I think we should probably have a good idea of what basis the unknown "they" are using.

Posted by: Merry | September 12, 2008 10:17 AM | Report abuse

The Fix seems to over-rate the likelihood of NH & PA switching, in particular. At least, if you think the pollsters are at all good at what they do. He also offsets his bold rank for Michigan with a decidedly un-bold rank for VA. I think The Fix may be caught up by the McCain bounce.

Posted by: bsimon | September 12, 2008 10:08 AM | Report abuse

as a 47 year old american,
obama makes me feels very
good about myself.
an average american,
and I have more
acomplishments
then the democratic
candidate for president.
he must have lived in
a vacuum.
Nobama08!

Posted by: usa3 | September 12, 2008 10:08 AM | Report abuse

A few key points about the electoral map shifts after Palin joins the ticket:

In most states, there is a bump for the M-P ticket accompanied by a corresponding drop in the O-B ticket numbers.

This would support the narrative that there is a shift of women voters & independents for M-P after the RNC.

However, in Appalachia states that have been polled post-RNC, you see that there is a bump for both the M-P ticket & the O-B ticket. Any gains in the M-P ticket vs. the O-B ticket are due to fact that M-P boost was simply more than O-B boost.

This would support the narrative that the Clinton endorsements for Obama perhaps carried greater weight in Appalachia than elsewhere. Since many later primaries were held there, in which the Clintons put in great presence & persuasiveness, & did well, that narrative is plausible. The Clintons, as the result of the 2008 primary season, may carry great influence in Appalachia now.

McCain faces a tougher time in Appalachia than one might expect despite the numbers shift, esp. if the Clintons campaign for him there.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Marie?
do you have anything
to add, that comes
from your own mind?
Marie?
do you have anything
to add, that comes
from your own mind?Marie?
do you have anything
to add, that comesMarie?
do you have anything
to add, that comes
from your own mind?
cut and paste liberal.
Nobama08!
from your own mind?

Posted by: usa3 | September 12, 2008 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Ryan, I've been over it more than a few times, I can keep coming to the same conclusion. If election day were tomorrow, it could well result in a tie.

Many folks talk about how this guarantees an Obama victory, since it goes to the House. But the representatives have to vote as a state, and the first candidate to get 26 states wins.

On my map, I have Obama winning just 19 states on the way to the tie. Would representatives from seven states go against their constituencies, possibly risking their political futures, and vote Obama?

In the end, it could come down to money. Obama is not limited by public financing, so he can afford a feint in an attempt to gain an advantage in a legitimate swing state. Florida may be an example of just that.

Posted by: John in Mpls | September 12, 2008 9:58 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 9:55 AM | Report abuse

The polls are not reflective of voter sentiment at this point because of a wide variety of factors:

1) Polls do not capture the large percentage of voters who primarily use cell phone technology.

2) The polls are too recent to fully capture the negative impact of the Sarah Palin selection. With each passing day, she proves herself to not be considered as viable person only a heartbeat from the Presidency.

3) The polls do not factor in the current aggressive campaign to register new voters.

4) Seniors are not being polled and there are a high percentage of voters who believe that John McCain is "too old."

5) Economic factors continue to decline daily and the voters who are the working class will vote Democratic come November.

3)

Posted by: FL Voter | September 12, 2008 9:55 AM | Report abuse

McCain went up 3% points overnight against Obama, now leading 49-45. As Obama is about to insult the US public by his stupid ad, while saying he wanted to get back to issues, one has to ask what the heck is he thinking?

Posted by: Karen | September 12, 2008 9:42 AM

-------

You gotta remember karen, he thinks were all stupid. That was a very stupid line for him to say. That is going to come back to haunt him big time.


Posted by: Obama2012 | September 12, 2008 9:52 AM | Report abuse

BUT THERE'S ANOTHER PLAYING FIELD -- The Courts

After 20 days of evading being served by a summons & playing games about who could accept service on behalf of Barack Obama as he flies around the U.S., a federal lawsuit filed against him alleging he cannot serve as President of the U.S. because he is not a U.S. citizen as finally been served on Barack Obama.

The docket for the lawsuit, entry #7 reflects:

"September 9, 2008 Affidavit of Service of BRANDON A. SNESKO re: service of Alias Summons and Complaint, Memorandum in Support of Plaintiff's Motion for Temporary Restraining Order and for Expedited Discovery; Plaintiff's Motion for Temporary Restraining Order and for Expedited Discovery upon INDIRA HENRAD on behalf of DEFENDANT BARACK OBAMA, and upon AMANDA LAFORGE on behalf of DEFENDANT THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE by PERSONAL SERVICE on 9/4/2008, answer due 9/24/2008. (jpd). (Entered: September 9, 2008)"

The U.S. Attorney & the Federal Election Commission accepted service of the summons on August 22, 2008, but none have taken action. In a legal sense, the defendant(s) are expected to answer the lawsuit, admitting the truth or falsity of the facts alleged, before third parties react.

IN THIS CASE BECAUSE OF THE TIMELINES OF THE GENERAL ELECTION & THE EVASIVENESS OF BARACK OBAMA RE: BEING SERVED, THE US ATTORNEY & FEC SHOULD INTERVENE TO HELP EXPEDITE THE LEGAL PROCESS SO THAT CRITICAL FACTS CAN BE ESTABLISHED BEFORE THE NATION VOTES ON NOVEMBER 4!

IF BARACK OBAMA IS INNOCENT OF THESE CHARGES, WHY DID HIS CAMPAIGN GIVE THE SERVICE THE RUN AROUND & DODGE SERVICE, HOLDING IT UP FOR 20 DAYS WHILE THE ELECTION DRAWS NEAR?

The suit alleges that Obama is not a U.S. citizen in 3 ways:

(1) His mother, as Kenyan records & witnesses attest, gave birth to Obama in Kenya while on a visit because the airline refused to allow her to board a flight when her delivery was imminent (this is standard for airlines, to avoid in-flight births). 4 days after his birth, Barack & mother flew back 4 days later & she registered his birth. No records of live birth for Obama exist in Hawaii & no hospital records in Hawaii attest to his birth. For a variety of legal reasons, including the young age of his mother & the U.S. naturalization laws at the time, Obama would not be a natural born citizen if this is true. He would be a Kenyan citizen.

(2) The suit alleges that, even if he were a "natural born citizen", Obama lost his citizenship when his mother naturalized as an Indonesian citizen while they lived in Indonesia. Obama was registered as an Indonesian citizen, and as late as the age of 20, he used his Indonesian passport to travel to Pakistan for undisclosed reasons while American citizens couldn't easily travel there due to restrictions.

(3) The lawsuit alleges that for a variety of reasons having to do with requirements for Obama to reclaim his citizenship if (2) were true, were not followed by him. I.e. he hasn't taken an Oath before an appropriate agent of the United States after his mother expatriated and his expatriation followed hers. He also never declared that he was giving up his Indonesian citizenship. At best, Berg alleges, Obama is a dual citizen of the U.S. and Indonesia, & a President with dual citizenship cannot have an undivided loyalties.

The very best that can be said of Barack Obama, even if all of the most lost-in-the-fog-of-the-past facts are all unable to be proved, is that he is, unquestionably, a dual citizen of the U.S. & Indonesia.

Indonesia is the country with the largest Muslim population in the World.

Final strange twist: Since Kenya was a British colony in 1961, Barack Obama might be a BRITISH citizen if (1) is true. & he might have a dual British & Indonesian citizenship and no claim to U.S. citizenship if BOTH (1) & (2) are true.

one article is at: http://www.phoenixvillenews.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20110394&BRD=1673&PAG=461&dept_id=17915&rfi=6a

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 12, 2008 9:49 AM | Report abuse

Govenor Palin is what we can realate to in Ohio. She's the woman across the street, a woman with a whole lot of common sense and the ability to get things done.

If I was McCain I would post her up and have her relocate here. She should capmaign in OH, PA, and MI nonstop. People here can EASILY relate to her. If she is here non-stop, she will beat...and beat....and beat into the doubts of us Midwesterners how much Obama cannot relate
and how different his values and beliefs are.

One trip a week to the West.

None of the trifecta are out of reach, with OH seeming more and more solidfying behind McCain and Palin.

Posted by: AkronJoe | September 12, 2008 9:49 AM | Report abuse

When the members of the audience were interviewed after the "lipstick" issue, they said the KNEW Obama meant Palin. Why deny it? Then he goes on Letterman and "elevates" the discourse by saying "Palin is the lipstick". There is a backlash, you just won't admit it. McCain should come out with a commercial of a Hollywood Starlet who bragged that she gets emails from Obama all the time -- real emails, not mass mailing. She was awed he had so much time to email little ole' Scarlet.

Posted by: Karen | September 12, 2008 9:46 AM | Report abuse

Obama issues: 1982 glasses? Disco balls? Hey, Obama, grow up.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 12, 2008 9:43 AM | Report abuse

I think there were certainly pie-in-the-sky hopes of Minnesota abandoning its long tradition of progressive politics and turning red this year, but I think those have finally faded away for good.

Obama's win in the primaries in the North Star State was huge. Now, incumbent Norm Coleman seems to be slipping in his fight to retain his Senate seat against Al Franken.

I know it's not a huge prize, but ten EC votes and the symbolism of turning Minnesota red could have been a great storyline for Republicans. But this is one state where the Palin pick didn't pan out. Had McCain selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who currently boasts an excellent approval rating (especially impressive among independents) despite never having won the majority in either of his gubernatorial elections, could have helped McCain carry Minnesota. Even the RNC in St. Paul failed to give McCain the necessary boost.

In the end, though, I'm sure he'd happily exchange the state for the momentum the Palin pick has generated.

Posted by: John in Mpls | September 12, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

Karen,

A couple of things, first off I believe anyone who attempts to look at the context of the pig and lipstick quote knows what Obama was referring to. McCain used the same phrase in reference to Hillary Clinton earlier this year, by logic you either know what the phrase means or McCain is a sexist as well...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR8IhMMhe8w

That being said, I do believe computers and technilogical competence is extremely important as an issue for the president of the United States. Its not a stretch to say that every issue in this election can be place in the context of technology. A solution for economic woes has been to make our country a more technical economy, it helps to know how this works technically. More and more defense issues are frames in technological terms, how we use computers to prevent terrorism, the relationship between computer and cyber-security. etc. Technology has been at the forefront of proposals to reduce healthcare costs in every universal health care proposal (universal electronic health record formats). And I shouldn't have to articulate its relationship with education.
So dont try to compare the issue of taking a common coloquialism taken out of context to offend women, with a serious issue of ignorance regarding a serious 21st century issue. Its laughable.

Posted by: DaveinFL | September 12, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

McCain went up 3% points overnight against Obama, now leading 49-45. As Obama is about to insult the US public by his stupid ad, while saying he wanted to get back to issues, one has to ask what the heck is he thinking?

Posted by: Karen | September 12, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

The Gibson interview shows that the issue is not going to be whether or not Palin can speak coherently about foreign policy or anything else. Of course she can. The issue is: what is she saying? McCain and Palin want to continue Bush's war. It's their "mission." McCain and Palin want to continue Bush's economic policies, including Bush's tax cuts for the rich (the real elitists). McCain and Palin have said nothing about Bush's deficit, or Bush's disregard for the environment. This is change? It's George Bush in a skirt.

Posted by: fmjk | September 12, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

1. iowa
2. new mexico
3. colorado - boosted by the convention
4. nevada
5. new hampshire - mccains re-found "mavrick" centerist rehtoric plays well in nh
6. virginia - its still a state trending d and the hampton roads area and norther va will come out heavy for obama - that and its proximity to DC and Maryland make it a sure bet that D voluteers will be flooding VA this fall - it may not be decided till late election night either way....
7. michigan
8. ohio - the polls have been tight, but in the end Mccain pulls through
9. florida - looks solid mccain - but lets see how palin plays out with concervative older white jewish voters in south florida
10. pennsylvania - not a single poll has had mccain up - mccain's top pick for VP, gov. ridge, would have put this in real play, but it will again go D by 4-7 pts.

Posted by: anon | September 12, 2008 9:41 AM | Report abuse

Obama's new ad actually makes sense IMHO. He hasn't sunk to telling lies or fabricating untruths... he's simply pointing out that McCain is VERY old-school, and out of touch with reality. I can't even fathom that a United States Senator with a college education can't use a computer, can't use email. I'm a senior myself and I have been using PCs since I had my first Apple II with no hard drive. I was one of the guys that used Compuserve and The Source... and no, I wasn't a computer science major. My field is/was Industrial Design and Graphics. But back to Grandpa McCain.

McCain HAS been in Washington an awful long time, he was implicated in the Keating Five hearings, and in in his last gasp effort to achieve something greater... he seems desperate to be greater more his father or grandfather did as Admirals in the Navy by attempting to become the President. Frankly, he's basically a war-monger who will use scare tactics to get votes. We should be striving for peace, and you don't make inroads in that area by threatening sovereign countries about their interest in WMDs. The last idiot to do that has cost the USA 4000+ of our finest military people and handicapped another 50,000. McCain is deja-vu all over again.

Posted by: Another Mike | September 12, 2008 9:34 AM | Report abuse

If Obama keeps all of the Kerry states - and I think he will, because Republicans had the same dashed hopes in 2004 for PA, MI, and NH - he has 252. If he wins Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and Iowa (7), he's at 269.

So here's an even bolder prediction - it might all come down to Omaha, Nebreska.

Posted by: Ryan | September 12, 2008 9:20 AM | Report abuse

John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning across the country on an anti-earmark crusade. In particular, Sara Palin claims that she said, thanks but no thanks to The Bridge to Nowhere. But as it turns out, she kept the $500,000,000 earmark. It is time that McCain and Palin put their money where they mouths are, and give the money back.

Call the Governor of Alaska, and tell her it is time to give the money back.

Anchorage Office
550 West 7th Avenue, Suite 1700
Anchorage, AK 99501

Phone (907) 269-7450
Fax (907) 269-7461

Fairbanks Office
675 7th Avenue, Suite H5
Fairbanks, AK 99701-4596

Phone (907) 451-2920
Fax (907) 451-2858

Washington DC Office
444 North Capitol NW, Suite 336
Washington, DC 20001-1512

Phone (202) 624-5858
Fax (202) 624-5857

Posted by: EPS | September 12, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

Chris,
you were talking about getting off lipstick and onto issues. Yet, on the evening of 9/11 "unity" Obama comes up with a commercial about McCain's computer skills. Is that an issue, or is it just ageism by a desperate Obama? Where is the outrage from the talking heads?

Posted by: Karen | September 12, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

Chris -

I've appreciated your takes on the state of the VP race, the states that are in play, etc. But really, how much horserace journalism can we do here?

Sarah Palin just gave her first interview (finally) last night and she obviously doesn't know what the Bush Doctrine is.

Tell me - if Obama or McCain or Biden didn't know, the press would be all over them. Why not a story centered around this gaffe? Is this not considered a gaffe? If not, why? (See? That's a story in itself...)

Posted by: Jeff - Washington, DC | September 12, 2008 9:12 AM | Report abuse


Obama has a good strategy, going after a number of possible ways to reach 270. I think that this is better than relying on one or two (or three) swing states to deliver an election.

Florida is a curiosity. Can Clinton and Koch help there? I would love to see a deeper analysis of the polls.

Elections are funny things, a lot depends on how things break.

Polls pre-debates are somewhat meaningless in the swing states. How will people feel about all of them after the debates?

Posted by: PatrickInBeijing | September 12, 2008 8:52 AM | Report abuse

The polls at the moment are wrong. Plain and simple. Over-representation of Republicans, undersampling of younger voters, not sampling voters with cellphones. The Obama ground game will be pushing its get out the vote effort in key states, particularly those caucus states that he won in the primaries: Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota. All key states, all have effective Obama machines.

In non-caucus states the long primary season and the hardfought campaign will start to pay off in the final weeks. A stretch of bad days for Obama will boost the fundraising as people want to give him the best chance they can.

My predicitions: Obama takes Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Pa will not be close in the final analysis with Dem voter registrations massively up since 04. Ohio is the ball game again. If Obama can take it he gets himself a comfortable electoral college victory. McCain cannot win without Ohio, regardless of any chance he thinks he might have in Michigan.

Somebody posted a comment about seniors not voting Obama. When it comes down to it, they will vote with their wallets and go blue. Obama needs to do a series of events to show he can capture the grey vote.

The Palin bubble will burst before Nov 4, and Independents and Republicans will begin to realise the poor quality of their candidate, his inherent decision making failures and his hypocritical attitudes. They will realise that Palin is a right wing Christian crusader, who has no business knuckling up to Russia.

Posted by: Mike | September 12, 2008 8:51 AM | Report abuse

Obama is winning in Ohio by 5% in only one poll. The other three post-convention polls have McCain leading by as much as 7%.

Posted by: The Angry One | September 12, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

from outside the beltway here in flyover country....it appears that there are two distinct candidates.
One with a lengthy history of selfless service and one with a short selfish service history.
Gee I wonder which one resonates here in the heartland?

Posted by: the entire midwest | September 12, 2008 8:46 AM | Report abuse


you all should be very scared...ugh

I can't believe you people...

this woman from that first glimpse last night at who she really is

this woman that people have been screaming about...

is not being elected to the head of the local "lets discuss world politics" committee...which she would have failed at.

She is asking to be the person that is the back up to wade through all of this cr@p we are in

The person that would launch nuclear (or like bush "nucular" missiles)

She didn't do okay...I, a citizen, would be more equipped to be Vice President than she is...

it is about basic knowledge of the problems we face...she is ...there are no words to describe how under-qualified and BAD a choice this woman is.

and how bad John McCain's whacked judgment was that he would actually hire this woman.

Her record is overwhelmingly mixed in Alaska. In a time when the state is having a boom because of the oil industry.

so stop with how popular she is...she is popular because of huge oil windfalls affording the oil companies being okay with getting taxed more and the return flowing into her state.

This is not the local Town Board Chair election oy ugh and AAAAAAAHHHHH!...

This is the person who should known and have known the Bush Doctrine and all of that recent history...and the details of Israel...and known what answering like that about Israel does to our job in the middle east peace process...and how it complicates it...

and ugh

this is ridiculous

that woman you saw last night ...you really think she should be deciding if we go to war,

or deciding whether "nucular" missiles should be launched

or American commercial jetliners should be be shot down over NYC

Gov Palin what if it were a Russian commercial airliner? or British? or Pakistani?

would you know the ramifications of such a choice?

you all should be feeling nauseous from that interview last night.

Absolutely ridiculous that that person on that interview ...would be close to any position of leadership...never mind the Leader of the freakin free world...
like was said before...this is not some Disney movie.

jesu$ how stupid can we be for a third time.

Posted by: dl | September 12, 2008 8:44 AM | Report abuse

As it has the last couple of years, Pennsylvania looks ripe for the plucking and will stay on the Democratic tree. I will not repeat James Carville's old Chestnut but it is true.

The telling fact is that the numbers that doomed Bush in 2004 have not changed. The SE part of the state will give Obama an overwhelming push. Kerry carried the City of Philadelphia by 415,000 votes. No question Obama will do so by the same, if not more.

The SE subburbs are trending Democratic and are much less race conscious than the center the center and the T.

We have an actual US Senator from the NE

From the polls this looks like a number 8 but so far it is acting exactly as it did in 2004. A larger lead shrank and never changed for Kerry.

Anyone who though that Obama would win 60% was dreaming in PA. Anyone who thinks that this is not one of the states where the old Roosevelt coalition comes back together in November is also dreaming.

Posted by: Mark Stackhouse | September 12, 2008 8:39 AM | Report abuse

Lance,

Bad News for you.. Americans reject socialislm and communism...

Barak will not win...

Posted by: lancealotlol | September 12, 2008 8:36 AM | Report abuse

The election all comes down to this: the economy. It's that simple. History shows us that Democrats do better at the economy than do Republicans. While Barack may not win in such places as South Carolina or North Dakota, the swing states from 2004 will tend to fall his way. Whereas McCain needs Ohio, Virginia, and Florida to win, Obama only needs one of those to secure the nomination.

Posted by: lancelot | September 12, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Hey 'truth maverick' just in case you haven't a clue on the DIFFERENCE of religious fundamentalists, and the Christian faith, take note.... Sarah Palin and her God, and the principles of OUR God, the God that America's principles were founded on... ARE ONE IN THE SAME. Learn the truth, maverick before you open your mouth and show the rest of us religious fundamentalists how sad your lack of knowledge truly is....

Posted by: d. rasmussen | September 12, 2008 8:17 AM | Report abuse

In rural Colorado, we've felt the democratic wave building all the way from the Caucuses, where Obama took the state easily and exuberantly, through last week. Up until then, the republican malaise was apparent to us all. However, Palin has changed the emotional environment, and the sage brush rebellion folks are re-engaged and have something to yell about and organize around (altho they probably know no more about Palin than the rest of us, it's a gut response thing). Lucky, we democrats DO have something to fall back on in addition to the state's recent swing to the political middle: Obama built a very good ground network in the caucus process, and that provides an organizing/GOTV base that I'm not sure the republicans have or can build in time.

Posted by: lenstewart | September 12, 2008 8:11 AM | Report abuse

.

Chris:

Obama's campaign is showing the signs of a slow erosion leading to a collapse - the seniors are not going to vote for Obama - Pennsylvania is going to go for McCain.


Obama's chances in some other states like New Jersey are going to erode as well.


Michigan is important as well. However it is clear that McCain will win at least 320 Electoral Votes and probably make it much closer to 400.

.

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 12, 2008 8:10 AM | Report abuse

Sarah Palin continued to prove she may have the moxie to be VP, but she clearly does not have the intellect or even a rudimentary understanding of how the rest of the world lives or functions. She did not provide answers to most of the questions, she merely gave responses that had little to do with answering the question. She has absolutely no knowledge of foreign policy. This is not to be unexpected considering her most significant credentials according to the campaign are her experience as a mother, moose gutter and gun toter. I would not be surprised to hear this level of understanding in a conversation with a co-worker, but to hear it from someone running for VP is extremely disturbing.

She was blatantly lying when she claimed she was quoting Lincoln about God and war. Someone told her to try to get away with that malarky. I've watched that "sermon" and she wasn't saying anything like Lincoln in his quote. She didn't mention Lincoln in the sermon and her message was completely different from what Lincoln meant. Lincoln did not bandy God as a political messenger. His quote was an admonition against anyone claiming to know what God's will is or to think there can be such a thing fighting on God's side. She doesn't even understand that the 9-11 terrorists thought they were on a mission from their God. Religious fundamentalists are the most dangerous leaders in the world, regardless of what country they represent. They put their religious doctrine above logic, reality, science, history and intelligence.

Posted by: Truth Maverick | September 12, 2008 7:54 AM | Report abuse

The week before the election, look to bell-weather Pennsylvania:

If Obama is below 47% in Pa., McCain is 44% or higher and the undecideds exceed 4%, McCain is our next President. The undecideds will break 3 to 1 for McCain as they did for Clinton. and the more money Obama spends there, the worse he will do.

If Obama is at 49% in Pa. at that point, he is our next President.

By the way, the Axelrod "ground game"/"new registrants" calculus will be netted out by the Bradley effect, so these two factors being a wash, the polls right now are reasonably accurate albeit rather fluid.

Posted by: dyinglikeflies | September 12, 2008 7:35 AM | Report abuse

Jim Baker and Jimmy Carter have published a report on American elections that finds fault with our conduct of presidential elections. It seeks to implement photo ID and suggests other reforms.

In TX, voter registrars are aggressively culling voter registration. This could be a good thing or a bad one, depending on how the culling is done. It is being done without precision and without notice to the voters in mot counties, and is thus a bad thing, for the most part.

NPR reports this morning that many states are aggressively culling. This favors the Rs in those states. Has anyone analyzed the quality of the culling process in the swing states, if any, and its probable effect?

Posted by: MarkInAustin | September 12, 2008 7:22 AM | Report abuse

From:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/second-time-as-farce-how-palin-is.html


Friday, September 12, 2008
Second Time As Farce: How Palin is Exactly Like Bush, Part 2

Palin: "Our national leaders are sending them on a task that is from God"

Gibson: Are we fighting a holy war?

Palin: (looking strained, desperate, trapped): The reference there is from Abraham Lincoln who said "Never presume to know God's will..."

Robert Zimmerman: She failed to describe how a McCain/Palin foreign policy would differ from a Bush foreign policy

Gibson: Have you ever met a foreign head of state?

Palin: I have not, and I think that if you go back in history, and ask that question of many Vice Presidents they have the same answer that I just gave you

Anderson Cooper: Bay, ABC News just did a fact check. They looked back the last 30 years, all Vice Presidents have met a foreign leader. Does that matter?

Bay Buchanan: No, it doesn't at all. Her answer was excellent. It will make Americans feel that much closer to her. She's very real. Sure, she hasn't traveled overseas to meet these foreign leaders. But that's not what American's are looking for. She's absolutely correct. They want somebody that they can relate to. Who's hearing them. They're sick and tired of those people in Washington who may know lots of facts and figures and meet lots of people...

Zimmerman: It's always a danger when we have leaders who know facts and figures, Bay. That really does get in the way of setting up sound policies...My concern, Bay, is that when Sarah Palin says that she's not met foreign leaders like that's a good thing--We made that mistake eight years ago when George W. Bush was that likeable guy that you wanted to invite over for a barbeque.

Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/second-time-as-farce-how-palin-is.html

Posted by: Marie Stewart | September 12, 2008 7:19 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company