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Expectations Game Underway in Michigan

The polls won't close in Michigan for another couple of hours, but that doesn't mean the presidential campaigns aren't already busily spinning expectations about tonight's results.

There's little question that Mitt Romney has the most riding on today's vote. After losing in Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary, Romney needs a win in his native state to catapult him back into contention.

"Our goal is to win this contest, and we think we can," said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, although he quickly added that the former governor would seek to stay in the race no matter the results tonight.

"Finishing in either first or second place in all of these contests will put us in a great spot as we go on to South Carolina and Nevada and Florida leading up to that February 5th date on the calendar," said Madden.

A win in Michigan by Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) would cement his front-runner status nationally and give him major momentum heading into Saturday's vote in South Carolina. But, for the moment, his campaign seemed content to cast Michigan as Romney's state to lose.

"It's tough to compete with the son of Michigan who has campaigned as if he's running for governor," said McCain communications director Jill Hazelbaker. She added that whatever the results tonight in Michigan, it would have little effect on South Carolina, where McCain is "well positioned."

None of the other major Republican candidates is seriously contesting the Michigan race; Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson are focused almost exclusively on South Carolina, while Rudy Giuliani is waiting for Florida's Jan. 29 primary to make his move.

"We didn't compete in Michigan and have zero expectations for tonight," said Thompson communications director Todd Harris. "The only thing we need to do tonight is keep on talking to South Carolina voters as we have been doing for the last 10 days."

Although the Democratic primary is a nonevent -- sanctions by the Democratic National Committee stripped the state of its delegates, and none of the candidates actively campaigned there -- that didn't stop Sen. Barack Obama's (Ill.) campaign from engaging in a little expectation setting of its own.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton noted that his candidate did not compete or campaign in Michigan and plans to do the same in Florida, which is holding a delegate-less primary on Jan. 29. "We raise Florida today because Senator Clinton has scheduled a fundraiser in Florida on Jan. 27th, and there are signs -- despite Senator Clinton's public pledge to the contrary -- that she may be planning to campaign in the state -- inquiring about large venues and increased organizing activity -- ahead of the Florida primary," writes Burton.

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 15, 2008; 6:09 PM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Michigan Primary Prediction Time!
Next: McCain "Truth Squad" Fights Back

Comments

The republicans have a LOT to think about this campaign. For more info, I found an awesome article called "Reagan Babies" at www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com. Here is an excerpt:

""A baby is an alimentary canal with a laud voice at one end and no responsibility at the other" Ronald Reagan

Last Tuesday was a big day for Republican Candidate Mitt Romney for he came out ahead of all others in Michigan's Primary election. To many this was not a surprise since his father was elected thrice Governor of Michigan in the 60's and, by many citizens' standards, was good for the State. This of course creates a very interesting power struggle within the Grand Old Party since Huckabee and McCain had already won their own primaries, making this race, as of Today, a three-way race. Of course, we have Thompson looking to catch South Carolina's ticket and Rudy Giuliani aiming to do the same in Florida. This last candidate has basically bet all his chips on winning Florida, if he does not win said State, he might as well never had run for the nomination. For many conservatives, this situation within the Republican pool of candidates is both embarrassing and aggravating. Here we have a process which basically tends to eliminate their most ideologically consonant candidates right from the beginning, since they depend on primaries and caucuses in predominantly "blue" states which, to make matters even worse, usually allow independents to participate. In this year's election though, it seems that all this does not matter since none of the participants seems to fulfill their base's expectations. Can any of these candidates face off against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John Edwards in a general election?

Since the birth of the Reagan Coalition, the era which brought to the Republican Party the juncture of both Social Conservatism and Economic Conservatism, the Grand Old Party has been unable to keep track of their own ideology, usually loosing itself to divergent group interests and in the process becoming a massive political tent that caters to both corporate and institutional fluctuations. Instead of assuming the responsibility of admitting to itself that Economic Conservatism, a belief..."

Find the rest of the article at www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com

Posted by: elsylee28 | January 19, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse

BOKO: There is only one thing wrong with the Post you referred me to. The Repubs changed their registration to vote for Obama, not Hillary, and that is what I've been telling you folks for so long now. Now that they have been caught in what I have been saying it is perfectly logical, and reasonable they should LIE about it for they have being LIEING for so long about not doing exactly what I said they were doing. Remember my "Accuse your opponent..." Quote. The Genius gets it right again, thanks to my "Crystal Ball"

Posted by: lylepink | January 15, 2008 11:13 PM | Report abuse

Romney declared winner in Mich. by NBC

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 15, 2008 9:04 PM | Report abuse

A few more nickname suggestions for Ron Paul supporters:

"concerned Americans"

"people with a clue"

"traditional Republicans"

"freedom loving Americans"

"the guys we wished we had listened to back in 2008" (2 or 3 years from now)

Posted by: drd6000 | January 15, 2008 8:16 PM | Report abuse

Okay, so why are Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson considered major candidates, but Ron Paul isn't, when he has received more total votes, has raised more money (in recent months), and has far more volunteers on the ground everywhere?

Giuliani's campaign is finished. Moderates will go to McCain, now that McCain is clearly more viable than he is, by far.

Thompson is hanging on by a thread, depending on a victory in South Carolina over Huckabee to stay viable.

Ron Paul soldiers on, with more cash and more volunteers than anyone.

Posted by: drd6000 | January 15, 2008 8:14 PM | Report abuse

We have endured 8 years of Sleaze, Scandal, and Corruption under Bill and Hillery followed by 8 years of Arrogance, Corruption, Criminal Incompetence and Gross Stupidly under Bush Jr.. and Chicken Hawk Chaney. Either party cares about our Constitution and the rule of Law, Their priorities are self first, the party second, special interests third, American Citizens and the Future of this Nation is not even on their list until election time then they pull out their spin, lies and attack ads again to get elected, after which they go back to their priorities.

It is increasingly looking like this Nation cannot survive more years of the same type of Corrupt, Lying, Self serving, Worthless Politicians that support and allow the largest invasion of a Nation in world history. While ignoring Article IV Section IV of our Constitution against invasion, and our Immigration laws. They have refused to aide by our Constitution, refused to enforce the very laws they passed and dishonored their oath of office!

Now both parties seen to have the nearly the same type candidates seeking our vote. From the polls it seems we have learned very little in the least 16 years and seem to prefer Sleaze, Corruption and Lies over Honor, Principles, our Constitution, and the Rule of law or Ron Paul would win the election by a wide margin.

I alone with millions of others are sick of both Clinton's and Bush's they have did more than enough damage to this Nation. Let them begone!

Posted by: american1 | January 15, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

fyi

'Rudy Giuliani has a new Spanish-language radio ad running in Florida, courting the Cuban vote. Rudy watchers will be glad to know that he's no longer exploiting the pain of September 11.

Instead, he's now exploiting "el dolor de aquel 11 de septiembre."

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/rudys_new_spanish_radio_ad_recordemos_el_dolor_de_aquel_11_de_septiembre.php

Posted by: drindl | January 15, 2008 7:41 PM | Report abuse

'NRO's Jim Geraghty posts what are supposed to be the first exit polls out of Michigan. Romney 35%, McCain 29%, Huck 15%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 4%.'

okay, Mark, I aced you on this one -- I said Paul would come in over Rudy...just exit polls of course, but we shall see. good news that McCain is so close to Mitt...

Posted by: drindl | January 15, 2008 7:40 PM | Report abuse

Crybaby Dennis has to sue to get into the debate

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080115/ap_on_el_pr/democratic_rdp

Face it Kuc; you're a whackjob, a freak, and a loser. Time to GTFO.

JD

Posted by: JD | January 15, 2008 7:39 PM | Report abuse

Romney is the best candidate for Michigan and that is rather obvious. He and his wife were born and raised there. More importantly, Romney is the best qualified to fix Michigan's troubled economy and to keep America competitive internationally. Romney has the education, expertise, track record, and values to lead this country and to maintain it's position as a world leader. It doesn't help that McCain smeared his reputation and credibility with the dishonest fliers that he sent out to voters as stated by Newsweek. Newsweek ran a story about this that I read today. It is four pages so I will not paste the whole story here, but you can get the point and read the whole story is you want more information.Factcheck.org: McCain's Misleading Mailer

He faults Romney for "providing" state funding for abortions that Romney didn't seek, and courts ordered.
By Brooks Jackson | factcheck.org
Jan 15, 2008 | Updated: 10:40 a.m. ET Jan 15, 2008Summary
McCain is sending out a postcard mailing in South Carolina that is misleading on more than one point.

Posted by: poliscistudent | January 15, 2008 7:26 PM | Report abuse

kingofzouk... there's already a great nickname for Ron Paul supporters, coined by wonkette.com (check it out if you haven't already): Paultards. Alternatives to the current field, Rudiots and Romniacs.

Posted by: tool4theman | January 15, 2008 7:25 PM | Report abuse

"When Americans look at Mitt Romney, they see the guy who laid them off."

Mike Huckabee

Posted by: kevrobb | January 15, 2008 7:24 PM | Report abuse

The more I look at the picture, the more I want Bloomberg to run.

When you are at the door of recession, and depression, from a rapidly failing economy, the President you want, is one with a very, very, strong mind, and a very, very, deep, and intimate knowledge, of business.

It doesn't at all hurt that Bloomberg is also anti-illegal immigration. He sees what it is doing to America, and Americans.

I think Bloomberg may well pick a Vice-President that isn't really a politician, but an individual, well versed and disciplined in the issues overwhelming our country.

Now, if it turns out that Bloomberg wants to bring our troops home from Iraq, he would almost be the perfect 10.

And if he stripped Halliburton, of their very lucrative Iraq contracts, and the contracts they have, to manage our 700+ foreign bases, he would be the perfect 10.

Posted by: buzzm1 | January 15, 2008 7:15 PM | Report abuse

I'll go out on a limb and say McCain is going to take Michigan. Yes, people there do remember Mitt's daddy, he was an executive of the bankrupt American Motors! Mitt's ads have a picture of an old Mustang in his appeal to Michiganian pride -- they should have had a Gremlin!

Posted by: isthisajoke | January 15, 2008 7:05 PM | Report abuse

"Dodd Facing Fight Within His Caucus on FISA
By: Nicole Belle on Tuesday, January 15th, 2008 at 3:31 PM - PST When Chris Dodd pulled out of the presidential race, he promised to keep up the good fight on the FISA bill and filibuster it if it contained retroactive immunity for telecoms. For showing this leadership, there was an outcry from the netroots to support Dodd as Majority Leader. Unfortunately, that support from the electorate (I mean, how dare he listen to the people who put him in office? The nerve!) as well as his continued pledge to filibuster the FISA bill is making Chris Dodd a very isolated person within his caucus. Per Roll Call (subscription req'd):

(D)uring his campaign for the presidency, Dodd chose to focus much of his time and energy on foreign policy issues and became an outspoken critic of President Bush's wiretapping programs, going so far as to filibuster a compromise Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization because of privacy concerns.

That prompted some private complaints from Democrats, who felt Dodd should have focused more on core issues under his committee's jurisdiction, particularly when the foreclosure crisis began to heat up last fall. Party leaders were reportedly unhappy with the fact that Dodd did not spend more time personally working on the mortgage legislation his committee produced and which Sen. Charles Schumer ( D-N.Y.) ultimately helped shepherd out of the chamber.

And while some hard feelings may remain, Dodd is set on hitting the ground running in terms of his committee work this year, planning an aggressive agenda that will feed into the party's broader economic efforts, aides said.[..]

Democrats said the FISA fight - which could come in the first week or two of the new session - may be an early test of whether Dodd's presidential campaign has caused any significant strains in his relationships with colleagues.

One senior Democratic aide said that while some Democrats could have been irked in the heat of the moment, most understand it is the nature of presidential campaigning for candidates to tackle hot-button issues and to rely heavily on veteran staff for day-to-day work in the Senate.

"I think it's too early to say" whether there are any hard feelings, the Democratic aide said. "But I think you could term it as a key few months for him" in terms of his reintegration into the Caucus. "It will be interesting to watch when he returns," the aide said.

For those not fluent in DC passive-aggressive speak, allow me to translate the "anonymous Democratic aide" for you: "okay, we know you needed to do something to stand out from the pack during your campaign, but now you need to get in line, or you'll find yourself at odds with your caucus." That's right...the Senate Democratic leadership doesn't like it when you step away from their agenda of signing off on every one of Bush's threatened vetoes and take a stand. Look at the telecom donations and see if you see some familiar names.

Dodd needs our support. I've been in contact with his team and they want responses from citizens that they can show his staff as well as others to let them know that we have Dodd's back to continue this fight. Please contact Sen. Dodd or leave a comment on this thread supporting his leadership.

PFAW also has ways you can get involved to fight telecom immunity.

UPDATED: ThinkProgress has White House spokesperson Tony Fratto's hysterical fear mongering designed to corner the Senate into passing the FISA law with the immunity:

"We're exactly three weeks away," he said, "from the date when terrorists can be free to make phone calls without fear of being surveilled by U.S. intelligence agencies".

You know this kind of scare tactic is Harry Reid's Achilles heel, he's petrified to look soft on "terra", so your support of Dodd is even more crucial.

"

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/01/15/dodd-facing-fight-within-his-caucus-on-fisa/#comments

and the names. When did BRIBERY turn into "lobbyist"? How did they deal with bribery in the ancient republcains?

"1
Dick Durbin (D-IL)
$34,000

2
Ted Stevens (R-AK)
$28,000

3
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
$26,500

4
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)
$21,000

5
Mark Udall (D-CO)
$19,800

6
Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
$19,500

7
John D. Dingell (D-MI)
$16,500

8
Gordon H. Smith (R-OR)
$16,000

9
Charles W. "Chip" Pickering Jr. (R-MS)
$15,000

10
Bart Gordon (D-TN)
$14,500

11
Jay Inslee (D-WA)
$13,010

12
Bart Stupak (D-MI)
$13,000

12
James E. Clyburn (D-SC)
$13,000

14
Mary L. Landrieu (D-LA)
$12,293

15
Anna Eshoo (D-CA)
$11,500

15
John E. Sununu (R-NH)
$11,500

15
Mike Ferguson (R-NJ)
$11,500

15
Rick Boucher (D-VA)
$11,500

19
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
$11,000

20
Harry Reid (D-NV)
$10,500

20
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
$10,500

22
John McCain (R)
$10,000

22
Lee Terry (R-NE)
$10,000

24
John Boehner (R-OH)
$9,500

24
Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ)
$9,500


"

Better to be an inependant. look at those names. Many of those people are those sabotaging the democrats internally. FOR MONEY. Good luck getting elected in your life again, ladies and gentlemen. Better start righting your ship now. The good sure better outweigh the treason.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 15, 2008 6:57 PM | Report abuse

Way to stand up for what you believe in Florida Republicans.

Posted by: psvann | January 15, 2008 6:54 PM | Report abuse

Off topic, but lylepink, you need to see this - from "The Trail," the segment about Rudy Giuliani...

"If pollsters thought they had a problem in NH wait 'til they see Florida results. Most "voters" won't tell them, but a lot of Republicans switched parties just before the cut-off on the 31st so they could vote for Hillary because she's the best chance we have to retain the White House regardless of who our nominee is.

Posted by: wmboyd | January 15, 2008 06:15 PM"

Posted by: bokonon13 | January 15, 2008 6:45 PM | Report abuse

I think we need a term similar to moonbat or wingnut to describe the Ron Paul supporters. any ideas???

something related to flying saucers which doesn't impinge on Kucinich would be nice.

Posted by: kingofzouk | January 15, 2008 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Vote for Freedom, vote for Ron Paul

Posted by: honeyradio | January 15, 2008 6:22 PM | Report abuse

Why all the talk of momentum still. CC, you are living in some alternative universe. If the big mo is so strong why hasn't it kicked in yet, in either party in any race?


all that momentum from iowa got huck all the way up to......12%

and it got Obamabi - a loss.
all that momentum from NH got Mac ....a tie.

hmmmmmmm.

Posted by: kingofzouk | January 15, 2008 6:18 PM | Report abuse

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