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Exploring the Unknowns

There is a tendency in politics -- amid the never-ending polls, news coverage and chatter -- to assume that everything that needs to be known about the presidential election can be known.

Wrong.

Ask any political operative who has spent more than a few years in this game and they will tell you that this election has as many -- if not more -- unanswered questions as any before it.

Some of those unknowns have to do with the historic candidacy of Barack Obama, the first African-American to run as a presidential nominee for either major party. But, the level of uncertainty also is tied to the war in Iraq and America's future in the region, the last eight years under George W. Bush and the current economic crisis gripping the country.

Unknowns are the hardest thing to cope with when handicapping any political race. In hopes of coming to grips with what we don't know and why, The Fix spoke with a handful of smart strategists and asked them what they are wondering about with 13 days to go before election day. Their questions -- and a few of The Fix's own -- follow.

Have other unknowns? Or -- hopefully -- the answer to one of the questions we pose? The comments section awaits.

Does the Bradley Effect Still Exist? Talk to ten different people -- or pollsters -- and you usually get ten different answers about whether or not the impact of Obama's race on voters is being undersold. The examples cited by historians about black candidates underperforming their poll numbers on election day -- Tom Bradley in 1982, Doug Wilder in 1989, Harvey Gantt in 1990 -- are inaccurate comparisons for two reasons: first, the most recent example happened nearly two decades ago; and second, none of the races mentioned was a national contest. Since the Bradley effect (if it exists) is built on the idea that people won't tell pollsters that a candidate's race makes them less likely to support said candidate, it's impossible to gauge just how much of a hidden anti-Obama is out there. Our guess: talk of the Bradley effect fundamentally altering the outcome in 13 days time is wildly overblown. (And numbers whiz Nate Silver of "The 538" agrees.)

Will Young People Vote? Heading into this year's Iowa caucuses (can you believe that was just NINE months ago!), many longtime political observers were skeptical that young voters -- aged 18-29 -- would turn out in force for Obama. That skepticism was rooted in the fact that four years earlier the youth vote never materialized for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in Iowa. But, on caucus night, more than one in five of all caucus-goers were under 30 and they went for Obama over Hillary Rodham Clinton by a 57 percent to 11 percent margin. Young voters stayed engaged -- and influential -- throughout the extended primary season with their percentage of primary voters fluctuating between the low and high teens. Recent tracking polls conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News show the extent to which Obama's winning coalition is dependent on young voters; among those aged 18-29, he is currently outperforming Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's 2004 numbers by 10 points.

October surprise? In the last two presidential elections, there has been a last-minute external event that, in retrospect, could be credited/blamed for influencing the outcome of the vote. In 2000, it was the revelation that then Texas Gov. George W. Bush had been arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol in 1976; four years later, it was the release of a tape by Osama bin-Laden just days before the vote. Is there some sort of surprise waiting out there that could fundamentally alter the race? It's hard to see one bigger than the collapse of America's financial markets and the ongoing re-ordering of the nation's economy that has happened over the last month. The most oft-mentioned is also the most terrible to consider: another domestic terrorist attack. And the political impact of such an event is truly unknowable.

How Big Will Black Turnout Be? As the Democratic primary fight between Obama and Clinton wore on, it became clear to those who studied the numbers closely that in any state with a significant (15 percent or higher) black population, it was nearly impossible for Obama to be beaten. That was due to the fact that not only was Obama winning 95 percent or more of the black vote in every state but also that African Americans were turning out in record numbers to support the Illinois senator's candidacy. Early voting for the general election suggests that black turnout in this election could shatter all previous records; in Georgia roughly 36 percent of all early votes were cast by black voters while in North Carolina African Americans comprised 28 percent of early voters. If these numbers are mirrored on election day, Obama will be in strong position to win in places like North Carolina and Georgia. He could even be more competitive than expected in places like Mississippi and Kentucky. And, a huge black turnout in those southern states would provide a major boost to Senate Democrats who have competitive races in all four places.

Could There Be a Gaffe Game Changer? Politicians feel pressure just like regular people. (Strange but true.) Need evidence? Check out the recent inflammatory comments by Reps. Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn.), Jack Murtha (D-Pa.) and Robin Hayes (R-N.C.). The closer the election gets, the more likely a politician -- exhausted from weeks if not months straight on the campaign trail -- is to make a major gaffe. Such mistakes or misstatements tend to be exacerbated by the fact that almost all of America is tuned in to politics in these final weeks, meaning that EVERYONE knows about such a major gaffe in short order. While Republicans are seeking to make Delaware Sen. Joe Biden's contention that an international crisis would surely happen in the early days of Obama's presidency a gaffe game-changer, it doesn't seem to have that sort of juice in our opinion. And, even when a perceived gaffe game changer is committed -- Kerry saying that if students did poorly in school they would be sent to Iraq -- its impact is often overstated; despite Kerry's comments, Democrats still managed to win back the majority in the House and the Senate in 2006.

Has the Political Map Fundamentally Changed? For all of the focus on Obama's competitiveness in places like Virginia and Colorado, anyone who follows congressional elections saw the roots of a rising Democratic tide in both places as far back as 2004. But, with polls -- some public, some private -- suggesting that Obama is competitive and could even win in places like North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota and Georgia, there is a unique possibility that the "red America/blue America" narrative that has dominated national politics for the last decade is breaking down. An electoral map that features Obama wins in the south and plains states could re-jigger the calculus of both national parties in races from the legislative to the statewide level in 2010.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 22, 2008; 11:35 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Parsing the (Tracking) Poll: It's the Economy, Stupid
Next: The Political Take: McCain's Shrinking Map and Palin's New Wardrobe

Comments

The October surprise has sprung and it's Joe Biden.
Obama should assign a midget secret service agent to Biden with instructions to punch him in the sack when he starts to say something stupid.
12 days to go and counting.

Posted by: seemstome | October 23, 2008 8:14 AM | Report abuse

I do believe that in the next ten days we will see a lot of polls proclaiming that the race is closer than it was yesterday. some of it is probably true. Most polls tighten up a bit toward election days but there will be others that do not know what they are doing. For example: I can conduct a poll of white upper class males and proclaim that McCain will win the election. For those of us pulling for Obama remember, nobody is suggesting that McCain will win a state that Kerry won. If Obama wins Virginia, Iowa and New Mexico, all states where he is well ahead on top of the Kerry states, he will be President-Elect. So, enjoy the ride, keep working hard but sleep at night and sleep easy.

Posted by: Opa2 | October 22, 2008 11:46 PM | Report abuse

Our economy is structurally sound for the long term"
-George W Bush - Feb 11, 2008


"The American people can remain confident in the soundness and the resilience of our financial system"
-Henry Paulson - Sept 15, 2008


"The economy is fundamentally sound"
-Herbert Hoover - October, 1931


"The fundamentals of our economy are strong"
-John McCain - Sept 15, 2008


McCain does not have the ability to fix this economic crisis. After declaring the fundamentals of the economy strong, McCain created a political circus in Washington by mucking up bailout negotiations; a deplorable campaign stunt, considering he and his political cronies helped cause the current meltdown.


It was McCain and his economic adviser Phil Gramm who pushed for the deregulation that helped lead to the banking crisis, and it was McCain's crony Rick Davis who had deep lobbyist ties to Freddie Mac. Don't be fooled by McCain's economic grandstanding because the reality is his policies and principles will only exacerbate our financial hardships.


McCain is being deceitful with his sudden populist message and support for regulation; his economic policies favor our nation's wealthy elite.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4egXbhSOhk
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 10:41 PM | Report abuse

"It's funny that the socials keep posting to reassure themselves with polls."

Beats blind faith.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 10:11 PM | Report abuse

Mk3872 explains in detail why the AP's outlier poll is so totally out of whack with the FIFTEEN other national polls showing O ahead by 7-14 --

Excerpt from mk3872's TPM blog:

"TPM put [the AP poll] on their home page taken from Drudge's daily attempt to find any single little outlier or to cherry pick numbers from any skewed poll to show hope for his faithful GOPers.

Don't be fooled. Open up the full report and read it.

In the national poll, Obama LEADS BY 10 points over McCain. The problem lies in the AP making the same mistake that Gallup occassionally does in that they are using patterns from the past 2 presidential elections to derive estimated on who will vote.

So their LIKELY VOTERS is what shows a 1 point Obama lead. HOWEVER, that is using a formula that is based on a much higher GOP and evangelical turnout from 2000 and 2004 not taking into account the new Democratic registered voters or young voter who will vote predominately Obama.

That accounts for the difference in national polls vs. likely voters and the AP (along with Gallup's "traditional" model) has it wrong.

*** UPDATE ***

Here is a GREAT link with information from Nate Silver further debuking this poll with a method that the MSM (and I'm affraid to say TPM did, too) fail to use: analysis and data!!

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html

The AP's sampling had 44% that were evangelical/born again Christian!! LOL!"

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 22, 2008 9:27 PM | Report abuse

leapin, Dianne72, kingofzook, asperclown, thecanoli, et al., I know it is a complete waste of time to state polling information from a legitimate journalistic source, but here goes:

Excerpt from time.com today (10/22):

"With less than two weeks to go 'til Election Day, Barack Obama has held or increased his leads in four key states won by President George W. Bush in 2004 — Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia —while losing ground in West Virginia, according to the latest series of TIME/CNN battleground state polls conducted by Opinion Research Corp. The polls also suggest that the McCain campaign's recent attempts to link the Democratic nominee to former domestic terrorist William Ayers and the liberal organizing group ACORN (which the GOP accuses of perpetrating voter fraud) are not resonating with most voters.

Obama gained the most ground in North Carolina, where he now leads John McCain among likely voters by 51% to 47%, up four percentage points from earlier this month when a similar poll showed the two tied at 49%. In Nevada, Obama expanded his lead to 51% to 46%, up a percentage point from September. Similarly, in the crucial swing state of Ohio, Obama leads the Arizona senator by a 50% to 46% margin, an increase of one percentage point from his lead earlier this month. In Virginia, a state that increasingly looks to be solidly in Obama's corner, the Illinois senator remains 10 percentage points ahead 54% to 44%."

Oy.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 22, 2008 9:09 PM | Report abuse

"Zouk's selection of McCain favorable polls is amusing.

He is using Zogby on-line polling almost exclusively, a completely non-random poll since the poll-ees have to sign up to participate."


Really????

hahahaha, that is hilarious!

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 9:08 PM | Report abuse

It's funny that the socials keep posting to reassure themselves with polls. If it's in the bag for Barrack "Santa" Obama then why aren't they sitting back, having a beverage, and watching Chris Matthews for signs of wet pants? The data that is reported on the polls is like all news nowadays, meaning filtered by the MSM. As election day nears the polls figures will tighten to reality as the pollsters will look foolish if they are not accurate on election day.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 8:49 PM | Report abuse

Zouk's selection of McCain favorable polls is amusing.

He is using Zogby on-line polling almost exclusively, a completely non-random poll since the poll-ees have to sign up to participate.

Using this data source to bolster his position is a tacit concession that McCain has lost.

If his position (so out of line with observable reality) actually held water he would be posting multiple polls to show that McCain's improving position was consistent across them all.

Posted by: careysub | October 22, 2008 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Why are Mc/Palin in PA when the polls show they are 10 points behind.?

Because BO's and McCain's internal polling both show only 2 points difference. Thanks John "Anti-American" Murtha!

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Pop, we read the same thing. They went to the big moneymen for cash to run last-minute, anti-O smear ads and the fatcats said "no." Their internal polling must show this race is over... unless people don't vote. Early voting is the key.
_________________

I just read where all Mccains big money friends have bailed out on him. They have said "Thanks but no thanks" to dumping any more money in to Mccains money pit.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 22, 2008 2:46 PM

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 22, 2008 8:29 PM | Report abuse

Palin's wardrobe malfunction ($150,000 of RNC campaign money spent at Nieman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, and other elite New York City stores) is a gaffe that will damage the McCain campaign in the closing days. Maybe it was the result of a terrorist attack, but so far, bin Laden hasn't claimed responsibility.

Posted by: jchaney | October 22, 2008 7:12 PM

______________________________

Well if American's cast their vote based on this "issue" we have much larger problems than terrorism or an economic dissaster. I just love it when a left wing loon pees in his panties when he reads a piece of juicy political gossip.

Posted by: ProudTexan | October 22, 2008 8:07 PM | Report abuse

ZOGBY TODAY (10/22) SAYS O UP 10, SAYS MAC "OUT OF STEAM":

"Democrat Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race to 10 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from an 8-point advantage for Obama on Tuesday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

It was the third consecutive day Obama gained ground on McCain as the two begin the final sprint to the November 4 election.

"Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group," said pollster John Zogby. "McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment.""

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 22, 2008 8:06 PM | Report abuse

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES, if there is one thing that Rebublicans and Democrats can agree on, it's that you are just annoying. If you have something to say, say it and quite posting 5 word propoganda messages and wasting everyones trying to find a meaningful post between them all.

Posted by: ProudTexan | October 22, 2008 7:59 PM | Report abuse

"Exploring the Unknowns" is another unfortunate attempt to push the false media narrative that the race is far from over, a story line even Drudge has given up on.

Charlie Cook in the National Journal pretty much disposed of Chris's points, one by one, the other day. No need to repeat Cook here.

Aside from an outlier poll from the ethically challenged AP, O has a commanding lead (which Drudge admits with his "Landslide [for O] like Reagan" headline today). The poll of polls has O at 7.0, and three or more polls have him at double digits. Electorally, according to Real Clear Politics, he is at 286 EV (he needs only 269) and 364 (with no toss-ups). He is leading in every battleground state (CO, OH, FL, NV, MO, VA (O up 10), and NC). Mac has no path to 270 in the real world.

The unprecedented surge in early voting will blunt the impact of any manufactured last-minute controversies (e.g., photo-shopped OBL videos); in fact, in NV, the early voting for O is so massive that state may already be decided. Expect at least 1/3 of the voters to have voted before Nov. 4. The Bradley effect, which has not been seen in 20 years, did not show up in Harold Ford's recent Senate race in TN in which he outperformed the poll numbers.

Some are talking about a "reverse Bradley effect" where folks are saying they are for Mac but voting for O. In any event, new voters, young people, AAs, and polls' tendency to undercount cell phone users should more than offset the mythical B- effect.

VOTE/VOTE/VOTE

But these polls are beside the point. The only poll that counts now is the final poll, THE VOTE. Unlike in past years, in 37 states, you don't have to wait to vote, you can vote NOW! Rather than waste time fretting over which outlier poll Chris or Drudge cherry-picks, VOTE EARLY. And get your friends, relatives, and coworkers to VOTE EARLY, and have them get their folks to VOTE EARLY. Early voters in NV have practically decided the state for O; clearly they are NOT waiting for Nov. 4 and worrying about polls. Whether you are for O or Mac, don't blog again here until you have VOTED.

Finally, big apologies to General Colin Luther Powell. Clearly his endorsement did make a huge difference. His MTP appearance supporting O (and making the case against Mac) provided the last good push needed to finally move the tectonic plates in O's favor by double digits. And, sadly, he had to suffer idiotic racist blowback from the usual broadcast bigots. From now on, Mac will call him "that other one."

Now VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE, VOTE....

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 22, 2008 7:55 PM | Report abuse

Palin's wardrobe malfunction ($150,000 of RNC campaign money spent at Nieman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, and other elite New York City stores) is a gaffe that will damage the McCain campaign in the closing days. Maybe it was the result of a terrorist attack, but so far, bin Laden hasn't claimed responsibility.

Posted by: jchaney | October 22, 2008 7:12 PM | Report abuse

No more chance for the war monger MCCAIN.

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 7:08 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA'S very hight intellectual capacity allows him to analyze situation And,make sound decision.

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Happens every time - Obama or Biden lets slip what they really think, word gets out to actual voters, and then the campaign has to issue a "clarification" post haste.

Those vidoes using the children as props are quite disgusting, but I imagine Kim Jong Il thinks they're great. He's probably jealous, and will follow through on the Biden Guarantee of Mettle-Testing 101 within 6 months. oh boy...Bay of Pigs, part Duex.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 22, 2008 6:46 PM | Report abuse

OMG!

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 6:37 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, Proud, I think all those writers from "The West Wing" were dissapointed that he used his own thoughts and ideas in public. and as they knew and warned the neophyte, it would lead to more questions and even perhaps some speculation on what the guy is really like.

Soros must be burning mad.

Have you seen the vile and hateful use of small children in an anonymous internet vid to attack sarah Palin? Lower than a snakes belly. Imagine brainwashing children and using them in that fashion. the Obama youth I guess they are called. the singing one was bad enough but this is way over the line of even common decency and sense.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 6:34 PM | Report abuse

koz, I appreciate your talents at keeping up the good fight every day here at the Fix. At last, we finally have some closing arguments thanks to Obama's going off script on the front yard of Joe the plumber, and the Ds susequent evisceration and mocking of the good man. What an appalling display that has been in the last week.

Also, honorable mention to the gift that keeps on giving, Joe Biden, for his spot-on guarantee of a international crisis precipitated by electing his running mate.

Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Negro continue to inspire the MSM, but the flyovers - not so much.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 22, 2008 6:27 PM | Report abuse

OH MY GOD!!! I Can't hear that WOMAN VOICE ANYMORE in my TV.

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 6:25 PM | Report abuse

It's only a simple things to do,help the one who can't afford.
One day you die anyway GREEDY(AVARE) and leave all your wealth.


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 6:14 PM | Report abuse

jackson251,

To provide for us in our necessities is not in the power of Government. It would be a vain presumption in statesmen to think they can do it. The people maintain them, and not they the people. It is in the power of Government to prevent much evil; it can do very little positive good in this, or perhaps in any thing else."

1795 “Thoughts and Details on Scarcity”
Edmund Burke

http://oll.libertyfund.org/?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php%3Ftitle=659&chapter=20399&layout=html&Itemid=27

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 22, 2008 6:10 PM | Report abuse

Proud, so good to have you back. I saw that over at NR too.

I predict thay already have an "excuse" in hand. you see Obama is off in HI visitng his sick grandma. so of course his numbers will go down.

Or forging a birth cerfiticket.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 6:09 PM | Report abuse

The sentences sum up what the party GOP REPUBLICAN stand for,and they are:
War is peace
Freedom is slavery
Ignorance is strength
GOP REPUBLICAN WALL STREET MAKE THE RULES(NEWS,WAR,PEACE,FAMINE,UPHEAVAL)

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse

Leapin, you're the guy who mocked the waiter, the homeless guy, and the tax system.

If you need more money, work harder or work smarter.

But don't be so damned smug. You sound like you're healthy. If so, lucky you.

But we have taxes and a social structure in part to help those who have lost their ability to work productively-- maybe that homeless guy, but if not him, plenty of others who are disabled by injury, accident, illness, whatever.

We're all in this together. Try not to forget that the next time you choose to stiff your waiter, to make some meaningless, selfish point. So how about over-tipping next time, and giving the homeless guy his share, too.

It sounds like you've got some make-up work to do.

Posted by: jackson251 | October 22, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse

Obi Wan: 'Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the 'McCain pulls even or goes ahead' poll.'

AP, not too long ago:

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

....I wondered aloud whether the media's day by day coverage could push people off those gut reactions - suspicion of "spreading the wealth around," relating to Joe the Plumber, etc.

"If so, the American people aren't the American people anymore," Obi Wan responded. "Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the 'McCain pulls even or goes ahead' poll."

(see AP poll today: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkM0JvRRUl81LuDA_P2t_goU2kGAD93VM4PO0)

"That Obama strategist knows how much depends on the whole Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel approach — work with the media to demoralize conservatives, and keep the perception of a juggernaut going. But a day or two of a few bad polls, and that strategy backfires. The conservatives know they've still got a shot at this."


http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MzU2MDg2MzVhY2EyY2U0NmFmODdmNmE4MTBmMTQ4ZTE=


You betcha.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 22, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES have fun in Europe. In 10 years it will be under Sharia law and your time as a useful idiot will be over.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Just a few months of peace.....

Posted by: theobserver4


Of course I will need the Nov-Jan timeframe to gloat over the backbencher Obama losing. too bad about the house and Senate though. At least one guy will stand athwart the SPLURGE. I look forward to Sarah running the Senate and making dingy Harry sit out back. Maybe Joe Biden can find his old copy of the constitution and figure out just which amendment and branch of government is pertinent.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:49 PM | Report abuse

If The One is so overwhelmingly great, why is it so close? Those who see some good ideas on both sides are - racist? Thanks! Or dumb - maybe clinging to religion and guns? Um, no. Perhaps just misled by the MSM? Nope.
NoBama can't close the deal. And, as in his state elections, he tried to run the table by making promises and breaking them (campaign fiance limits, anyone?)
He is trying to buy the election now - is this change you can believe in? He's likable enough, but for the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country.
People are paying attention and voting early. I would hope they'll choose wisely. Obama can come back 'nother time.
Here in Fla. polls are statistically tied, very slight edge to McCain. We drink OJ, not Kool-Aid. Have some!

Posted by: OrlandoNan | October 22, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

The world love BARACK OBAMA

OBAMA BIDEN 08...!


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:46 PM | Report abuse

HAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:41 PM | Report abuse

Zogby is the ONLY poll that doesn't show a coming OBAMA LANDSLIDE.

On the contrary, I used the most recent poll, it was not alwasy Zogby. you Libs love chanting. did your tin foil hat ferequency telegraph in a new chant for this week. Say it with me:

Hope, hope, hope

Oh wait that was last month

change you can beleive in, change you can beleive in

Oh wait, there is no indication of any actual action there. I know, I know:

Landslide, landslide, landslide

good luck with that.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:40 PM | Report abuse

"WE DON'T HAVE PEOPLE SLEEP UNDER THE BRIDGE HERE,AND PUT FIRE IN DRUMS TO GET WARM.

EUROPE IS MORE FAR BETTER THAN AMERICA


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES"

Maybe that's because the average temp is 76 degrees F.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 5:39 PM | Report abuse

When do mid-term elections start up for 2010? I'm really looking forward to RNC shill Zouk leaving the Fix until it's time to annoy potential voters again. Just a few months of peace.....

Posted by: theobserver4 | October 22, 2008 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Time to retire with whatever is left of your dignity,and a graceful war Mr. MCCAIN


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:37 PM | Report abuse

ddawd - I posted the most recent figures. that is the proper approach when I claim the trend is going down for the messiah. If you want to claim that he is holding steady, you may want to include averages over the last few weeks so that the recent downward spiral is disguised somewhat.

the average figure amy not rise above even before your guy loses. you may want to quote those average figures on Nov 5th that clearly demonstrated your guy was ahead when in fact he lost. It may make you feel better on that wednesday. Perhaps by December the averages will catch up to reality, which is actually a point value.

Schumers landslide strategy is not working too well. the base is not demoralized and we will not pay for every last liberal wish the messiah can think of and PeLousy can tax to fund.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:37 PM | Report abuse

ZOGBY? LAUGHLAUGHLAUGHLAUGH

He's actually using ZOGBY POLLS!?!

OMG that's HILARIOUS!

...Zogby is the ONLY poll that doesn't show a coming OBAMA LANDSLIDE.

..Too bad Palin is going to have to give back her illegal $150,000 wardrobe campaign gift... She won't be on the campaign trail much longer.

VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN AND LET'S TAKE BACK AMERICA FROM THE WING-NUTS!

Posted by: onestring | October 22, 2008 5:35 PM | Report abuse

As to whether the youth vote will come through, you can look at Colorado as an example. I was surprised when Senator McCain pulled resources out of Colorado (6 or 7 percent behind in polls) to send them to a much larger poll margin differential in Pennsylvania.

However, Colorado has early voting, and Obama supporters are coming out in droves. Pennsylvania does not have early voting. They can always hope for bad weather on November 4, maybe Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have long voting lines that dissuade voters, etc. In the early voting states, everyone is voting...at least the Democrats to date. (I'll leave out the racial focus in PA...not worthy of presidential politics.)

Interesting election for sure.

Posted by: amaikovich | October 22, 2008 5:32 PM | Report abuse

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki


We don't have drug induced murders go unpunished because the kid is a rich son of a politician. Unless it's a Kennedy of course, in which case no crime is ever punished.

We don't rely on rich american tourists floating our entire economy.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:31 PM | Report abuse

The only reason I would need a helping hand from Big Government is that 40% of my income is going for income taxes, sales taxes, fees (hidden taxes) etc. This is a crushing weight on my back and they want to pile on. You try growing up. The time may come when you need to be self-sufficient. You could contribute your money to people directly and avoid the government waste. Remember, you can always contribute more money, at any time, by writing checks to the US Treasury.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 5:31 PM | Report abuse

"You should continue to avoid numbers. they do not suit your irrational behavior."

If a number looks like an outlier, it probably is.

The solution to this isn't for others to avoid numbers. The solution is for you to look at more of them.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 5:30 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN IS A:
WILLFUL INORANCE
WISHFUL THINKING
OUTDATED IDEOLOGY


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:28 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN IS OUT OF TOUCH WITH MIDDLE-CLASS AMERICA'S ECONOMIC TROUBLES! McCain in April 08 declared that there had been "great progress economically" during the Bush years. On more than one occasion, he diagnosed Americans' concerns over the dismal U.S. economy as "psychological." (Phil Gramm, McCain's close friend and economic adviser supposedly excommunicated over his "whiners" remarks, is back with the McCain campaign full time again.) McCain, a man who owns eight homes nationwide, in March lectured Americans facing foreclosure that they ought to be "doing what is necessary -- working a second job, skipping a vacation, and managing their budgets -- to make their payments on time." And when all else fails, McCain told the people of the economically devastated regions in Martin County, Kentucky and Youngstown, Ohio, there's always eBay. McCain doesn't understand our tanking economy because it doesn't affect him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FD_M2BEl64

The $100 Million Man
Courtesy of his wife Cindy's beer distribution fortune (one her late father apparently chose not to share with her half-sister Kathleen), the McCains are worth well over $100 million. (In the two-page tax summary she eventually released to the public, Cindy McCain reported another $6 million in 2006.) As Salon reported back in 2000, the second Mrs. McCain's millions were essential in launching her husband's political career. Unsurprisingly, the Weekly Standard's Matthew Continetti, who four years ago called Theresa Heinz-Kerry a "sugar mommy," has been silent on the topic of Cindy McCain.

The Joys of (Eight) Home Ownership
While fellow adulterer John Edwards was pilloried for his mansion, John McCain's eight homes around the country have received little notice or criticism. His properties include a 10 acre lake-side Sedona estate, euphemistically called a "cabin" by the McCain campaign, and a home featured in Architectural Digest. The one featuring "remote control window coverings" was recently put up for sale. Still, their formidable resources did not prevent the McCains from failing to pay taxes on a tony La Jolla, California condo used by Cindy's aged aunt.

The Anheuser-Busch Windfall
While John McCain played a critical role in facilitating DHL's takeover of Airborne (and with it, the looming loss of 8,000 jobs in Wilmington, Ohio), Cindy McCain is set to earn a staggering multi-million dollar pay-day from the acquisition of Anheuser-Busch by the Belgian beverage giant, In Bev. As the Wall Street Journal reported in July, Mrs. McCain runs the third largest Anheuser-Busch distributorship in the nation, and owns between $2.5 and $5 million in the company's stock.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek3jAkx9m10

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 5:27 PM | Report abuse

TO LEAPIN

WE DON'T HAVE PEOPLE SLEEP UNDER THE BRIDGE HERE,AND PUT FIRE IN DRUMS TO GET WARM.

EUROPE IS MORE FAR BETTER THAN AMERICA

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Is Obama's rush trip to Hawaii really for a sick grandmother, or maybe to fabricate a birth certificate? Wonder why he's never come up with a real birth certificate, instead of the phony one on his web site?

Posted by: LarryG62


Stop asking questions. the minister of truth does not permit it. you will have MSDNC camped out on your lawn and your entire history dug up if you persist.

you have been warned!

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Did Sarah have an extra-martial affair with a Black Man while she was a Mayor?

This person is supposed to go public sometime before the election.

Posted by: wlockhar | October 22, 2008 5:23 PM | Report abuse

I find it most perplexing that after all the money the "Rich" have donated over countless years to the "poor" thier response is not "thanks" or any sort of appreciation but rather to demand more and be disagreeable about it.

when they start to get a little more for whatever reason, watch for the demands to escalate.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:21 PM | Report abuse

HAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:21 PM | Report abuse

Is Obama's rush trip to Hawaii really for a sick grandmother, or maybe to fabricate a birth certificate? Wonder why he's never come up with a real birth certificate, instead of the phony one on his web site?

Posted by: LarryG62 | October 22, 2008 5:20 PM | Report abuse

OH YESSSSSSSSSS!
EVERYBODY HAVE A HEALTH INSURANCE WHATEVER YOU ARE POOR OR RICH.

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:19 PM | Report abuse

I like the way america was on 9/12/01. I liked the patriotism and the way everyone cared for each other. It took only 7 years to loose that feeling. I don't think we can get it back with someone like Obama. Leapin, I loved your story!!!!

Posted by: cbl0213 | October 22, 2008 5:18 PM | Report abuse

TEST

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

America will look like NETHERLANDS ANTILLES when BO gets done!

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

Leapin, you confuse sharing the wealth with your own philosophy, which I'd term being a jerk.

Maybe if you'd given the waiter $8.00, and given the waiter's extra $2.00 to the homeless man, your math and your economic system might roughly parallel the progressive tax system.

As it is, like McCain/Palin, you're just inciting the masses, for no purpose other than cheap emotional satisfaction (in your case).

Try growing up. The time may come when you need that waiter or that homeless man, or even, heaven help you, the Federal Government, to give you a financial break.

But of course, it's more likely that your tax return will show that you already get some breaks from Big Government -- it subsidizes your mortgage, your deductible meal, and your charitable giving, no?

Posted by: jackson251 | October 22, 2008 5:15 PM | Report abuse

October surprise- Next Tuesday. Wolf Blitzer looked like he needed perking up.

It follows the lyrics of that old Beach Boys number that Mr. McCain violated copyright on by changing the words...

Posted by: poorrichard | October 22, 2008 5:14 PM | Report abuse

More polls:

NC
Survey USA
10/18-20 627 LV Mac 47 Obama 47

MO
Suffolk
10/16-19 600 Lv Mac 45 Obama 44

OH
Zogby
10/17-20 991 LV Mac 49 Obama 47

NV
Zogby
10/17-20 670 LV Mac 52 Obama 44

CO
Zogby
10/17-20 951 LV Mac 48 Obama 48

NM
Zogby
10/17-20 534 LV Mac 46 Obama 46

any questions moonbats???

You should continue to avoid numbers. they do not suit your irrational behavior.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:12 PM | Report abuse

THAT KING OF ZOUK YOU ARE ONLY TALK LIE IN THE POST,THAT MAKE YOU FEEL GOOD I THINK.


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:08 PM | Report abuse

The so-called "October Surprise" has already happened: al Qaeda endorsed John McCain and the neocons. I wonder if McCain will mention this in his robocalls?

Posted by: osullivanc1 | October 22, 2008 5:05 PM | Report abuse

HUM!!!

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 5:05 PM | Report abuse

Mason dixon poll in VA:

10/20-21 625 LV Mac 45 Obama 47

THE ONe sinking like a stone in the last state that matters. Kind of like the CLash used to be.

Zogby in NH:

10/17-20 466 Lv Mac 46 Obama 47

some landlside there moonbats.

This evidence furthers my hypothesis and is irrefutable evidence that the messiah has peaked too early and is on his way to a loss.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:05 PM | Report abuse

Today on my way to lunch I passed a homeless guy with a sign that read "Vote Obama, I need the money." I laughed.

Once in the restaurant my server had on a "Obama 08" tie, again I laughed as he had given away his political preference -- just imagine the coincidence.

When the bill came I decided not to tip the server and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama redistribution of wealth concept. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed more in need -- the homeless guy outside. The server angrily stormed from my sight.

I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10 and told him to thank the server inside as I've decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.

At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn even though the actual recipient deserved money more.

I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 5:03 PM | Report abuse

Interesting stats from FL mason dixon poll, just out:

OBAMA MCCAIN
45% 46%


SERVED IN MILITARY?
OBAMA MCCAIN
Yes 24% 70%
No 50% 40%

so the military is overwhelmingly for McCain despite the lies of bongbrain.

AGE OBAMA MCCAIN
18-34 60% 34%
35-49 44% 46%
50-64 42% 49%
65+ 38% 51%

the older and wiser you get, the more likely you are to vote sensibly.

RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE John McCain 51% 33% 15% 1%
Barack Obama 49% 37% 13% 1%
Joe Biden 47% 29% 22% 2%
Sarah Palin 43% 35% 21% 1%

It seems only the real moonbats hate Sarah. the actual voters like the messiah less then her.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 5:01 PM | Report abuse

McCain was a socialist before he was a...whatever he is now. Watch him defend the progressive tax system in 2000 in almost exactly the same words Obama used with Joe the plumber.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2JPbQOHEkY

Posted by: sava1ou | October 22, 2008 4:54 PM | Report abuse

NO MORE CHANCE FOR WAR MONGERS (MCAIN).
WILLFUL IGNORANCE
WISHFUL THINKING
OUTDATED IDEOLOGY

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

I only know of a few losers that say they will vote for obama over here on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. We know what hard work and the American Dream is all about. We pay for our own health insurance and don't take handouts like the obama voters do. We understand that the democrats caused this whole collapse of the economy brought on by mandating subprime loans be given to people who couldn't pay the loans back.
We don't want to be taxed more so obama supporters can make more babies, do drugs, get drunk and sit on the porch or lay in bed all day. We don't want our wealth being spread around to these affirmative action, entitled people.

95% of black people are voting for obama.

Be true to your race and vote McCain/Palin or be prepared to support mote blacks and illegals with more of your hard earned tax dollars. Younger people better realize that if you vote for obama, you are throwing your future away. All the good schools will be filled up with blacks and illegals and you won't have a chance because your wealth will be spread around by obama. Wise up. You can't spend what you are forced to give away.

Posted by: charlietuna666 | October 22, 2008 4:50 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk - Actually, Obama wants to fight the terrorists where they live, on the Pakistan-Afghan border, rather than waste our blood and treasure on that stupid venture your idiot President got us into in Iraq. And McCain, blind Bushie that he is, wants to bleed even more, throw away even more money, for absolutely nothing in Iraq.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | October 22, 2008 4:46 PM | Report abuse

FDR inspired enormous hatred on the Right ....he was accused by many of turning USA into a socialist state.

Quite like Obama actually.

Posted by: wpost4112

Here's a big difference. FDR wanted to fight and win a war before it even started.

Obama wants to give up after we have already won.
Posted By: king_of_zouk

"Won"? By what standard? If the goal was to erradicate terrorism, then I must disagree.
Most people can agree that the attack on the World Trade Center in New York was a direct attack on our economy. Our reaction was to funnel billions into a war where we have not caught the figure head behind the attack. Where is our economy now?

Posted by: nlstolo | October 22, 2008 4:44 PM | Report abuse

“Can anyone name a democracy that doesn't raise taxes and use them for the benefit of all?”

Well within the US the states with little or no state income, like Texas, have the best job climate with the most job creation. The US as a country raises taxes and wastes the money through fraud and inefficiency while never reducing expenses which doesn’t benefit all. Can you name a business that doesn’t reduce fraud, inefficiency, and expenses that stays in business. Last time I checked the US is going out of business.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Down in the polls, McCain's Divide & Flail™ strategy is to call Barack Obama's tax cut for 95% of Americans "socialism."


Well, McCain must have once been a socialist, because it turns out that for years he supported higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for lower taxes on the middle-class.


The YouTube don't lie:
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8EyGpOU3qM
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Video of Rep. Randy Kuhl saying that Democrats want the American people to suffer and to hurt:

http://liesliesmorelies.blogspot.com/2008/10/rep-randy-kuhl-democrats-want-american.html

Posted by: Snakeheader | October 22, 2008 4:35 PM | Report abuse

We all know that the polls are now being used as a tool of the in-the-tank media to discourage and depress Republication turnout. As the election nears the polls will tighten because the pollsters will lose credibility if they don’t appear close to the actual results.

Of course the polls, after this election, in the future will show 100% popularity for BO. Just like all leaders show in socialist dictatorships.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 4:24 PM | Report abuse

I find it mildly amusing that many of the fierce opponents of "spreading the wealth" live in so-called Red states, many of which are benefitting from taxes raised in more populous Blue states and then used to help the poorer Red states. In other words, they are benefitting hugely from the spread-the-wealth principle that is the foundation of every democratic society. Can anyone name a democracy that doesn't raise taxes and use them for the benefit of all?

Posted by: kitvoter | October 22, 2008 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Ask Hillary how well the Bradley effect worked for her.

Posted by: thomgr | October 22, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD:

You are right, there is a minute chance. I admire your Audacity of Hope!

Posted by: Godhimself1 | October 22, 2008 4:10 PM | Report abuse

"DDAWD:

You are delusional because you believe McCain still has a chance to win this. "

No I don't.

But the guy has got to do something for the next two weeks, right? May as well see if he can recover the onside kick.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

"Spreading the wealth" is a concept embraced by a small number in the Democratic party and a plurality of college professors and high school teachers. A strong majority of Americans reject the concept of "spreading the wealth".

Posted by: spam6 | October 22, 2008 3:50 PM
-------------------------------------------
Sorry spam, but your statement simply isn't true. BELOW ARE SOME NUMBERS FROM A LATEST POLL:

This is where your argument comes crashing down:

"On the issues and candidate qualities
-------------------------------------
In the survey, Obama also holds commanding leads on the issues — especially economic ones. He has a 39-point advantage over McCain in handling health care (59 to 20 percent), a 21-point edge on improving the economy (49 to 28), a 21-point lead on the mortgage and housing crisis (45 to 24), a 17-point edge on dealing with the Wall Street crisis (42 to 25), a 14-point lead on taxes (48 to 34) and a 12-point advantage on energy and the cost of gas (44 to 32)."

Source: MSNBC/WSJ Poll conducted Oct17-20
-------------------------------------------
When will you people give it up? The writing is on the wall. IT IS OVER!

Posted by: Godhimself1 | October 22, 2008 4:01 PM | Report abuse

"A strong majority of Americans reject the concept of "spreading the wealth"."

That must be why we've had a progressive income tax for 95 years.

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | October 22, 2008 4:01 PM | Report abuse

Anyone considering to vote for McCain, please read the article in Rolling Stone about him:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain

Posted by: jalehw | October 22, 2008 4:01 PM | Report abuse

FDR inspired enormous hatred on the Right ....he was accused by many of turning USA into a socialist state.

Quite like Obama actually.

Posted by: wpost4112

Here's a big difference. FDR wanted to fight and win a war before it even started.

Obama wants to give up after we have already won.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Bradley Effect? No, not really. Obama's biggest problem is foot in mouth disease. This is why Barack's handlers limit him to reading off of a teleprompter, and Barack does not take questions from reporters, nor does Obama hold Q&A sessions with the media. The "spread the wealth" answer by Obama may cost him the election. "Spreading the wealth" is a concept embraced by a small number in the Democratic party and a plurality of college professors and high school teachers. A strong majority of Americans reject the concept of "spreading the wealth".

Posted by: spam6 | October 22, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD:

You are delusional because you believe McCain still has a chance to win this.
Delve deep into all the polls, listen to the experts, and if by then you still believe, I think upping your meds might be in order (or atleast double up on the tin-foil in your hat).

Posted by: Godhimself1 | October 22, 2008 3:47 PM | Report abuse

allenridge:

HOLY CRAP!

First off, you are reading one of the newspapers that you call "Liberal Fascists"

Secondly, Imperialism as we knew it is dead. (Goodbye "USA" chants.) The entire world is interconnected because the we live in a global economy. The news media is not interested in party affiliation. They are intersted in the impact of our decision on the rest of the world (which happens to be a little left of center). Hey, we're maturing like Europe. Suprise!

Finally, for someone who thinks that this is some sort of "Nazi" conspiracy, take a look at the propoganda that the good ol' US government released in the lead up to the Iraq war. That was kinda fascist. Oh yeah, and that whole wire-tapping thing. And the hiring of employees in the justice department based off of party affiliation. I could keep on going...

Posted by: steeleswitters | October 22, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

"DDAWD:

Delusion is a human coping mechanism that helps an individual ignore completely or at the very least warp reality so it makes sense to them. You my friend, are delusional.

This one is over."

Um, what am I being delusional about?

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

nlstolo,

Every presidential race spends time in the mud. But the current hate environment, as I see it, first appeared in the 1988 campaign. Michael Dukakis thought it was going to be your ordinary presidential race. He actually took a vacation after the Democratic convention (can you imagine that?). Lee Atwater had different plans, so in came Willie Horton and Boston Harbor. Reagan never ran this kind of campaign!

This is simplifying things, but Republicans and Democrats used to be generally civil toward one another. Democrats skipped along assuming things would stay this way, unaware that a segment of the Republican party had been plotting a strategy to establish a permanent Republican majority.

The strategy worked against Dukakis, but when Clinton won in 1992, Republicans were LIVID! This wasn't supposed to happen! They got even with Clinton with the impeachment (Ken Starr dug deeper than anyone has ever dug into a sitting president).

By the early 2000s, behind Karl Rove (today's Atwater), it looked like the permanent Republican majority was firmly in place. Looks like it's back to the drawing board. And if Obama wins, be on the lookout for a new Ken Starr.

What hurts to the over-30 crowd is that people can remember when things were less hateful.

Posted by: dognabbit | October 22, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

The best thing that could happen from this presidential cycle is the elimination of the red state/blue state narrative. Let's hope in the future we can have intelligent conversations around politics and issues rather than the divisive conversation that ensues from a red state/blue state mentality.

Posted by: zepol61 | October 22, 2008 3:39 PM | Report abuse

Obama has so much money to spend now, he's going into McCain's home state of Arizona and such rightwingnut bastions as Georgia. LOL

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27315660/

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | October 22, 2008 3:35 PM | Report abuse

If anyone is showing signs of Bradley Effect - it's Biden...

Talk about clown - the man is scared and obviously doesn't want his man Barry to win.

Posted by: seawolfR | October 22, 2008 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Poor McCain -- just when it looks like he may be making up ground, his moronic running mate or some other moronic GOPer opens his/her piehole.

Now we see why the McCain campaign tried to keep Palin away from the press for as long as possible. She is a clown!

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | October 22, 2008 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Question for the senior population:
---------------

FDR inspired enormous hatred on the Right ....he was accused by many of turning USA into a socialist state.

Quite like Obama actually.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk:

My 'Delusion' comment certainly applies to you too!

Posted by: Godhimself1 | October 22, 2008 3:22 PM | Report abuse

McCain Is Proud Of His Brochure Linking Obama To Islamic Terrorism.
.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/rnc-mailer-what-does-obam_n_135407.html
.


On Monday, a Missouri-based television reporter asked McCain whether he was proud of a smear-laden mailer sent out by the RNC on his campaign's behalf.
.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/21/mccain_stands_by_controversial.html
.


McCain's reply: "Absolutely."
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbEPmh7iS7E
.


It all comes down to the economy. Despite his attempted "reboot", John McCain is still as determined as ever to smear Barack Obama with the most scurrilous garbage imaginable -- all because he has no clue what to do about creating new jobs.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 3:21 PM | Report abuse

In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a whopping 53.4 percent to 45.6 percent. A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 5 had Bush leading the Greek homunculus by a statistically insignificant 2 points -- 45 percent to 43 percent. (For the kids out there: Before it became a clearinghouse for anti-Bush conspiracy theories, CBS News was considered a credible journalistic entity.)

A week later -- or one tank ride later, depending on who's telling the story -- on Oct. 13, Bush was leading Dukakis in The New York Times Poll by a mere 5 points.

Admittedly, a 3- to 6-point error is not as crazily wrong as the 6- to 15-point error in 1984. But it's striking that even small "margin of error" mistakes never seem to benefit Republicans.

In 1992, Bill Clinton beat the first President Bush 43 percent to 37.7 percent. (Ross Perot got 18.9 percent of Bush's voters that year.) On Oct. 18, a Newsweek Poll had Clinton winning 46 percent to 31 percent, and a CBS News Poll showed Clinton winning 47 percent to 35 percent.

So in 1992, the polls had Clinton 12 to 15 points ahead, but he won by only 5.3 points.

In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole 49 percent to 40 percent. And yet on Oct. 22, 1996, The New York Times/CBS News Poll showed Clinton leading by a massive 22 points, 55 percent to 33 percent.

In 2000, which I seem to recall as being fairly close, the October polls accurately described the election as a virtual tie, with either Bush or Al Gore 1 or 2 points ahead in various polls. But in one of the latest polls to give either candidate a clear advantage, The New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 3, 2000, showed Gore winning by 45 percent to 39 percent.

In the last presidential election the polls were surprisingly accurate -- not including the massively inaccurate Election Day exit poll. In the end, Bush beat John Kerry 50.7 percent to 48.3 percent in 2004. Most of the October polls showed the candidates in a dead-heat, with Bush 1 to 3 points ahead. So either pollsters got a whole lot better starting in 2004, or Democrats stole more votes in that election than we even realized


Anne c.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter narrowly beat Gerald Ford 50.1 percent to 48 percent. And yet, on Sept. 1, Carter led Ford by 15 points. Just weeks before the election, on Oct. 16, 1976, Carter led Ford in the Gallup Poll by 6 percentage points -- down from his 33-point Gallup Poll lead in August.

Reading newspaper coverage of presidential elections in 1980 and 1984, I found myself paralyzed by the fear that Reagan was going to lose.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.

In 1984, Reagan walloped Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40 percent, -- the largest electoral landslide in U.S. history. But on Oct. 15, The New York Daily News published a poll showing Mondale with only a 4-point deficit to Reagan, 45 percent to 41 percent. A Harris Poll about the same time showed Reagan with only a 9-point lead. The Oct. 19 New York Times/CBS News Poll had Mr. Reagan ahead of Mondale by 13 points. All these polls underestimated Reagan's actual margin of victory by 6 to 15 points

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 3:20 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD:

Delusion is a human coping mechanism that helps an individual ignore completely or at the very least warp reality so it makes sense to them. You my friend, are delusional.

This one is over.

Posted by: Godhimself1 | October 22, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

I don't know idea if the Bradley Effect is real. I do know that the Obama Effect definitely is: whenever he becomes the center of public attention, people become disgusted with his arrogance. Attacks on Palin and Joe the Plumber may dearly cost Obama in ways not yet understood.

Posted by: greg3 | October 22, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk asserts:
"Regardless of the unbderlying reason, there is a polling bias toward Democrats. In every election but the Kerry one, there was a large poling error indicating a big Dem lead which did not materialize. I will find the numbers and post them."

Zouk is likely to be looking for awhile.

Check out the CNN day-by-day tracking poll for the 2000 election:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/poll/frameset.exclude.html

Gore trailed by an average of 5 points for the last four weeks of the election, but came in with a small majority on election day.

Now, faced with evidence that his thesis is nonsense, Zouk will probably spin this as proof that McCain can replicate this feat and make up 5 points in the final election. Unfortunately he is down 6.8 points (according to RCP), and needs an actual lead to make up for Obama's structural advantage in the Electoral College.

So McCain still strikes out.

Posted by: careysub | October 22, 2008 3:12 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk:
First, we all know you're Sean Klannity trying to post as an "informed, concerned" citizen.
Second, read newspapers in your own state, the machines have already been outed for turning dem votes into rep votes.....sounds like REAL voter fraud to me.

Posted by: LLS-America | October 22, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

McCain is flailing...or is it unraveling? After watching this video of McCain it looks like he's doing both of these things at the same time.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnE-YJ---GI
.

HAHAHA!!!

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 3:10 PM | Report abuse

We Americans must stand firm against this Nazi-like propaganda that is coming out in eveyone of their "fictional" news accounts. Stand up and fight! Fight against our corrupt "free left-wing press" !! Stand up and fight against liberal corruption in Hollywood! Standup ! standup and fight for our rights!....................STAND UP! .............STAND UP AND FIGHT!


WE'RE MAD...........................WE'RE REALLY MAD!........................STAND UP AND FIGHT

I think this doofus started hitting the sauce a little too early this morning at Cowtown Bar/Saloon.

Posted by: ryanr007 | October 22, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

To state the obvious, I think the strong emphasis on early voting (by both sides, but particularly Obama as the current leader) is an attempt to diminish the punch of an October surprise. So, the question about whether there will be one has lost a little (not all) of its urgency.

To take your example, if you had voted for George Bush at this time in 2000, you would have found out about the drunk driving ticket after you had already voted. It would not and could not have affected your vote.

Mathematically, the early voting will have to soften the impact of any last-minute surprise -- the question is by how much. With record levels of early voting it could be by a lot.

BTW: This is another good argument for early voting. It takes the "stunts" and surprises somewhat out of the equation, so voters cast ballots based on longer term decisions.

Posted by: fairfaxvoter | October 22, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Question for the senior population:

I am a mid twenties voter, so the first election I actually followed was the 2000 election. In your recollection, has there been an election of similar tone in recent history? Do you recall this much hate being directed at a candidate before? I have heard so many negatives directed at Obama. Most of them are stereo types or blatant mis-statements about his beliefs and patriotism. Very few of the negatives I hear (from co-workers etc.) are directed at his policies. Just curious. The press always blows these things out of proportion for the sake of sensationalism so I am reluctant to believe their assertions on the matter.

Posted by: nlstolo | October 22, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Hey - "Real Americans" (otherwise known as right wing-nuts)
It's over!!!!!!

You can be as delusional as McCain-Palin and their campaigns and think the race is tightening - NOT!

It's going to be a landslide and all the fear mongering and racist code words aren't going to do a damn thing.

Posted by: mikedooley | October 22, 2008 2:56 PM | Report abuse

"Lets assume the initial condition of the EC map is the same as 2004. now consider the changes. I have said many times that I doubt Mac can win NM, IA or CO. fine. I claim he is in a good position to still be victorious in FL, OH, MO, NC, etc."

The problem is that McCain is in good position to win a combination of those four. He is in a lousy position to win ALL of those four. Unfortunately for him, that's what he needs.

And Virginia may flip to McCain, but that's not going to be enough without Colorado, Iowa, and NM. McCain will need a Kerry state with more votes than New Hampshire. It seems more and more like McCain is pinning his hopes on Penn.

Of course, in the entire month, the closest McCain has gotten was within 8 of Obama.

I know polls aren't the most accurate things in the world, but when McCain is struggling to get Obama's lead into single digits, that's not a good sign.

But hey, the guy has two weeks left. He may as well at least pretend to try.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 2:56 PM | Report abuse

WE'RE MAD...........................

Posted by: allenridge

---------------------

Indeed you are.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 2:54 PM | Report abuse

WESH TV, a big station in Orlando, reports slight edge in most recent poll for McCain. Huge lines when I voted this a.m., lots of McCain buttons.
We recall the theft of our primary votes for HRC and this is payback. No so fast, NoBama. Maybe you'll head back to your obscured-view junior Senate seat...

Posted by: OrlandoNan | October 22, 2008 2:46 PM | Report abuse
-------------------

You should go to intrade and make a bet. You will get about 9 to 1 on your money right now. Mccain is only trailing by 74 points.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 22, 2008 2:50 PM | Report abuse

Check out this video of Sarah Palin answering a 3rd grader's question about what the job of the VP is, Scary:

http://liesliesmorelies.blogspot.com/2008/10/sarah-palin-to-third-grader-vice.html

Posted by: Snakeheader | October 22, 2008 2:49 PM | Report abuse

WESH TV, a big station in Orlando, reports slight edge in most recent poll for McCain. Huge lines when I voted this a.m., lots of McCain buttons.
We recall the theft of our primary votes for HRC and this is payback. No so fast, NoBama. Maybe you'll head back to your obscured-view junior Senate seat...

Posted by: OrlandoNan | October 22, 2008 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Loons trying their hand at math, and by math I mean simnple addition:

Lets assume the initial condition of the EC map is the same as 2004. now consider the changes. I have said many times that I doubt Mac can win NM, IA or CO. fine. I claim he is in a good position to still be victorious in FL, OH, MO, NC, etc.

this means that the only states in question are VA and NH and with some luck PA. I understand you are all charged up about winning VA. and that you are relying heavily on a depressed GOP voter who stays home after the pre-ejaculated reports of a "landslide". Keep trying. It may be slipping away for you, but my home state of VA is not going to go down without a fight. We have a reputation for that going back to 1860. As does NH. with friends like biden and Murtha, PA may yet flip to the good side. Mac clearly thinks so as does the gov.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse
------------------

I just read where all Mccains big money friends have bailed out on him. They have said "Thanks but no thanks" to dumping any more money in to Mccains money pit.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 22, 2008 2:46 PM | Report abuse

CbusGuy, while both Barack Obama and yourself may wish it were not so, it is nevertheless an inconvenient fact that Barack Obama IS INDEED a baby boomer having been born in 1961. Most agree that the baby boom generation was born between 1946 and 1964 inclusive.

Posted by: slate_77 | October 22, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Report says NOTHING about Palin's charging the State for her family vacations, nor does the site mention the RNC stimulus package for Saks 5th Ave, Macy's and Bloomindales as they fit the whopping $150,000
_____________________________________
Who cares?????? I mean really!
That's why it's not on there, you liberals are seething at the most ridiculous things!

Posted by: blevins20061 | October 22, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse

"ddawd, Of the last two Missouri polls are within the margin 'o error. According to electoral-vote.com, the latest has Obama a couple points ahead:"

I know Missouri is close. My point is that its not an important state. If Obama wins it, it will be a part of a landslide, not a deciding state.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Loons trying their hand at math, and by math I mean simnple addition:

Lets assume the initial condition of the EC map is the same as 2004. now consider the changes. I have said many times that I doubt Mac can win NM, IA or CO. fine. I claim he is in a good position to still be victorious in FL, OH, MO, NC, etc.

this means that the only states in question are VA and NH and with some luck PA. I understand you are all charged up about winning VA. and that you are relying heavily on a depressed GOP voter who stays home after the pre-ejaculated reports of a "landslide". Keep trying. It may be slipping away for you, but my home state of VA is not going to go down without a fight. We have a reputation for that going back to 1860. As does NH. with friends like biden and Murtha, PA may yet flip to the good side. Mac clearly thinks so as does the gov.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Hey Chris... i know you're a self-pronounced Drudgeologist. The Drudge Report says NOTHING about Palin's charging the State for her family vacations, nor does the site mention the RNC stimulus package for Saks 5th Ave, Macy's and Bloomindales as they fit the whopping $150,000 bill for Palin's wardrobe. How relevant is the Drudge Report Now? The Drudge Report is partisan contrary to what you believe their motives are.


Posted by: AB68 | October 22, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

McCain is not leading in FL, OH, and MO; Obama has a slight lead in all 3, although they are really toss-ups at this point (go to real clear politics and look at the poll averages). Obama has good leads in VA, CO, and NM which would give him the election w/o FL, OH or MO. Things change, Ohio may not matter this time.

Posted by: dhbrew | October 22, 2008 2:40 PM | Report abuse

The Fix is correct as far as it goes. But it Was Barack Obama who predicted the central theme of the 2008 election - and that was two years ago.. ...............

http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/21/the-prophecy-of-barack-obama/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 22, 2008 2:40 PM | Report abuse

McCain is going to WIN Pennsylvania !! The polls are tightening. McCain has gone up in Florida and Ohio and is now just 2% down in the latest poll from Virginia!!


My fellow Americans don't let the propaganda coming from this new breed of Liberal Fascist's that run the Goebbels New Network of the Associated Press, Washington POST, NYTimes, LATimes, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, and MSNBC, to a name the top alpha members of this pack.


THESE ARE NOT NEWS ORGANIZATIONS BUT INSTEAD VERY CORRUPT POLITICAL ORGANIZATONS WORKING FOR THE DNC. THEY ARE ENGAGING IN CORRUPT PROPAGANDA PRATICES TO MOVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TOWARDS OBAMA.


We Americans must stand firm against this Nazi-like propaganda that is coming out in eveyone of their "fictional" news accounts. Stand up and fight! Fight against our corrupt "free left-wing press" !! Stand up and fight against liberal corruption in Hollywood! Standup ! standup and fight for our rights!....................STAND UP! .............STAND UP AND FIGHT!


WE'RE MAD...........................WE'RE REALLY MAD!........................STAND UP AND FIGHT!!!!

Posted by: allenridge | October 22, 2008 2:39 PM | Report abuse

--" October surprise? "--

No thank you. The last one cost this country 700B, let's get that one behind us first.

Looking forward to seeing if Reps. Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn.), or Robin Hayes (R-N.C.) make it to The Line.

You think Murta's comments will hurt much? It might just be personal bias but "racist area" doesn’t have the same sting as "anti-American". Perhaps because I see the racism in myself? It could be an objective fact - albeit not a popular one in some quarters.

Accusing non-Republicans of hating America because they're not Republicans seems to fit in a different category I would think.

Posted by: DonJasper | October 22, 2008 2:37 PM | Report abuse

I'm not surprised in the least that McCain is getting his butt kicked, he doesn't have a clue about how to fix the failed Bush economy because he and Phil Gramm helped break it.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4egXbhSOhk
.


McCain has never worked a day in his life. His idea of hard work is marrying a rich beer heiress for a living.


Running for political office is McCain's hobby. All trophy spouses have hobbies.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxT0s_I5WtA
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 2:35 PM | Report abuse

zouk pants:

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey shows McCain's numbers have remained static at 46 percent since early October, while Obama's support has decreased three percentage points to 45.
-------------

LOL. Abandoning your precious Zogby poll now?? Theirs shows Obama up by 4 in FL. And a double digit lead among independents.

Your own methodology is corrupt.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 2:35 PM | Report abuse

As to the points of this thread:
1] No "Bradley" effect, except perhaps with first time hispanic voters in NV [I have a good reason for suggesting this but it takes too long to set out in a post :-)].

2] Young people will vote but their % participation, although it will have increased, will still lag older folks.

3] If we could predict an October surprise it would not be a surprise, right?

4] Blacks are voting heavily.

5] There will be gaffes. Even the silliest of them will not be "game-changers". There have been so many already.

6] I am beginning to think the parties have changed as much as the maps. The Rs appear captive of the fundies, much to my chagrin, while the increase of the bluedog contingent of the Ds has moved that party closer to the center. If both parties move to the "right", more or less, the Ds gain and the Rs lose. Vice versa if both parties move to the "left", more or less.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 22, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse

ddawd, Of the last two Missouri polls are within the margin 'o error. According to electoral-vote.com, the latest has Obama a couple points ahead:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/missouri.html

The front page lists a quick-check for who's picked up what, relative to 2004:

Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO FL IA MO NV NM NC OH VA

GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 2:32 PM | Report abuse

McCain Outperforming Bush in Ohio Bellwethers?

I continue to hear from my source on the ground in Ohio, who is seeing results for McCain that are surprisingly good. He puts it, "in a key bellweather section of Ohio, McCain continues to show internals that are exceeding the national pollsters’ results. This portends a potentially larger McCain victory in Ohio than Bush had in 2004.”

As for those national pollsters, note that Fox News/Rasmussen puts McCain up 2, NBC/Mason-Dixon puts McCain up 1 and Rasmussen had it a tie last week. My guy on the ground thinks this might mean that the internal polling is a leading indicator, and he's noting that if McCain does as well among the key demographics in neighboring Pennsylvania as he is in Ohio, then the Democrats ought to be sweating about that state.

That's far from a given, of course; Pennsylvania is a bluer state than Ohio. I don't know that McCain will win Pennsylvania, but it isn't like he hasn't been given enough material - "spread the wealth around", "no coal plants", Murtha alternately calling his constituents "racists" and "rednecks," the bitter small-town clinger comment, etc.

I can hear it now - "Jim, Jim, what about the Suffolk Poll showing McCain losing Ohio by 9?" Well, if the Ohio electorate on Nov. 4 really does turn out to be 54 percent women and 46 percent men, and 45 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, then that may very well be the result. But I would be curious about which debilitating virus is attacking those with Y chromosomes in that state. (Having said that, the 2004 exit poll put the gender split at 53-47 in favor of women.)


Looks like OH is ion the bag for Mac and Pa is teetering in indecisiveness. I thought only Dem candidates were that indecisive.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk

I guess dems and republicans will spend the next two weeks cherry picking poll information that supports their agenda. Of couse if McCain wins it will be the people have spoken for republicans and voter suppression complaints for the democrats. If Obama wins it will be people voted for change for the democrats and voter fraud lawsuits for the republicans. You see both parties are so predictable in their spin and rhetoric I can tell what people from each party will say before they even say it. Personally I do not expect Obama to win florida and I would not be shocked or supprised if McCain won. I am prepared to go on with my live either way. Bush has not affected me personally and neither will McCain. Its people like you who eventually feel the affects and get fed up with it before anything changes. Its up to people like you. If you want things to stay the same and you vote for the same, please do not expect anything to get better with the same people. They will not change. You can't make a hooker a housewife.

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

""As to Fl, MO, and Oh...they really don't matter anymore in terms of the electoral college."

this is what passes for analysis on the left. the big three don't matter."

Sure they MATTER, but only in the backup plan sense. McCain is losing by double digits in every Kerry state. He is also pretty far behind in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Those states put Obama well above the 270 he needs.

Ohio and Florida (I'm not sure how the hell Missouri got into this discussion) might matter, but McCain is going to have to come from behind in a state that he is badly losing by. Most likely it will have to be Pennsylvania, since he seems to be quitting Colorado.
----------------------

Exactly my point.

And a Pennsylvania win appears improbable, though admittedly, not impossible.

Even if he takes MO, FL and OH, which are all iffy, he still needs to turn a big blue state.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

Okaay, zouk, you paid troll, that's it. You can attack liberals and progressives and thinking people in general all you want...

... but when you go after a lovable icon like Charlie the Tuna, you have descended to new depths.

Literally.

Sorry, Charlie...

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 22, 2008 2:28 PM | Report abuse


The Biden scenario:

shortly after The Messiah's inauguration, Iran decides to toy with the ONE and see if he is as docile as advertised. they block the straights of Hormuz and oil prices shoot to the sky. the world economy, already rocked by sharply increased taxes is now in despair.

President Obama, what do you want to do about Iran?

What are my options?

you could send in a carrier group?

What is a carrier group? Is that part of my health care initiative?

No, it is a small fleet of naval warships?

I don't want to appear beligerent.

there is always the Marines.

Let me consult my many advisors, think it over for a few weeks, let them know I am PRESENT and I will come up with a compromise in a couple of days, two weeks at the most. Set up a poll to see what the voters think. See if my wife can come downstairs and decide for me. And get hillary on the line.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse
-------------------

At least in two weeks this will all end and you can go back to surfing porn all day.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 22, 2008 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Today, the McCain campaign sent their presidential candidate to New Hampshire, where he is hoping to make up a 10 point deficit in just under two weeks. If successful, the candidate will add the state's coveted three electoral votes to his total, and perhaps, achieve a moral victory in picking up one 'blue' state, despite losing between 4 and 10 'red' states.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Part b of the Lib triumverate - aka the axis of spending and corruption:

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s home district includes San Francisco.

Star-Kist Tuna’s headquarters are in San Francisco, Pelosi’s home district.

Star-Kist is owned by Del Monte Foods and is a major contributor to Pelosi.

Star-Kist is the major employer in American Samoa employing 75 percent of the Samoan workforce.

Paul Pelosi, Nancy’s husband, owns $17 million dollars of Star-Kist stock.

In January, 2007 when the minimum wage was increased from $5.15 to $7.25, Pelosi had American Samoa exempted from the increase so Del Monte would not have to pay the higher wage. This would make Del Monte products less expensive than their competition’s.

Last week when the huge bailout bill was passed, Pelosi added an earmark to the final bill adding $33 million dollars for an “economic development credit in American Samoa.”

Pelosi has called the Bush administration “corrupt.”

She should know.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:24 PM | Report abuse

""As to Fl, MO, and Oh...they really don't matter anymore in terms of the electoral college."

this is what passes for analysis on the left. the big three don't matter."

Sure they MATTER, but only in the backup plan sense. McCain is losing by double digits in every Kerry state. He is also pretty far behind in Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Those states put Obama well above the 270 he needs.

Ohio and Florida (I'm not sure how the hell Missouri got into this discussion) might matter, but McCain is going to have to come from behind in a state that he is badly losing by. Most likely it will have to be Pennsylvania, since he seems to be quitting Colorado.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse

"John McCain is improving his standing in Florida."

The state's 27 electoral votes increase his projected total to... 180. He needs 270 to win the Presidency.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Tom Bradley was a five-term mayor of Los Angeles, California, serving in that office from 1973 to 1993. His 20 years in office mark the longest tenure by any mayor in the city's history."

Perhaps people in California wanted a change, as America seems to now and it had nothing to do with race. He had a long career as mayor and it was time for a new regime.

Posted by: hakafos44 | October 22, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

gracedelvillar

Like hillary ask people like you during the convention, Did you vote just because of me? You sound like one of the bitter hillary supporter/voters who wish to take out your anger on Obama for winning the nomination. One thing I can say for myself as a whole black person, had hillary beat out obama I would not vote for McCain as a result. Thats the spite vote. I guess if McCain wins it will be a lose/win for you. Seing that he is not your first candidate of choice but your candidate to make you feel like you stuck it to all the people who did not vote for hillary. The real question you must ask if you have your way is what do you do next? Hope for the country to continue to do bad for four more years in order to make Hillary a more attractive candidate? What if Hillary dies before 2012? What if some other democratic candidate runs against her in the 2012 primaries and wins again? What will you do, keep voting for republicans until hillary clinton is the candidate? Boy imagine if black people took on your attitude, we would have never voted or voted against our own interest until this election.

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Wingnut Economic Philosophy 101:


Socialist = raising the top tax rate for the richest among us from 35% to 39%.


Free-Market = nationalizing the banks, massive investment in insurance agencies, limiting certain types of trades, raising the debt ceiling, and promoting government investment into stocks and bonds. And an emphasis on Red States.


It’s all so clear now!


"Conservatives" are hilarious, especially now that they're headed toward an epic defeat.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcdLO3jKkPo
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Another skeptical state falls back in line.

As he pounds Obama for telling America's most famous handyman that he wants to ''spread the wealth around,'' John McCain is improving his standing in Florida, with a Wednesday poll showing the Republican presidential candidate with a 1 percentage-point lead.

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey shows McCain's numbers have remained static at 46 percent since early October, while Obama's support has decreased three percentage points to 45.

The results mirror three other Florida polls this week that, taken together, show the race is dead even as Democratic nominee Obama's momentum appears to have slowed.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Darn facts, always in the way of Lib thought:

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

zouk: Obama is projected currently at 360 electoral votes including Ohio, Missouri and Florida. If he lost all three he would still have 302 electoral votes - more than enough for election.

.....get your kool aid ready....

Heehee

:-)

Posted by: toritto | October 22, 2008 2:13 PM | Report abuse

I would guess that if, as someone said today, that as many as 22% are still undecided in national #s, that there may be many change their vote to McCain. I have to think that some are suggesting they'll vote Obama when they won't. One thing that could activate the more conservative of the GOP would be confirmation that there really are instances of significant voter fraud.
My recommendation to the McCain campaign, as well as the GOP, would be to funnel sufficient funds into programs to verify the reliability of voter fraud allegations. If they are are valid, I'd launch a major program to challenge results in certain states that could matter.
I think there may be a generational "thing" underway, whereas many, say, under 30, have gotten used to ripping off game ware, soft ware, DVDs, movies ... and that this tends to reinforce a view that it is o.k., somehow, to cheat in elections. If there IS a "bradley effect" in play for an anti-Obama vote, I'd suggest it's corollary among Obama voters is voter fraud.
The sanctity of the voting process is at stake in the latter. It would be vital to stand firm, and challenge the results in places where voter fraud could be rampant. Knocking out spurious votes could whittle leads down in some precincts and districts, and that is fair and should be done.
For some reason, I really don't trust the polls coming from many locations. Murtha is right about some in his state. This will be the first time an African-American has run at the national level. I tend to think Obama's candidacy may bring out a negative reaction in some places. The inundation of spurious voter registration #s might be the counter balance -- "the racists are going to come out and vote against Obama ... so what if we have a few voter sign ups that area bogus!"
Who will be watching? How can people even know when someone who has never voted before, shows up at Precinct A, and then goes to Precincts C and D -- again, when no one has ever seen these people before? Allegations that some students have signed up in the states where they go to school, and who might drive home, or, vote early, in their real state residences, could be harder to prove.
I would just suggest to everyone but Obama that voter fraud allegations be vigorously checked, and if they are proven, to challenge the entire vote count.

Posted by: zennhead614wheatland | October 22, 2008 2:13 PM | Report abuse

"As to Fl, MO, and Oh...they really don't matter anymore in terms of the electoral college."

this is what passes for analysis on the left. the big three don't matter.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

JohnDinHouston

Sorry, Straits, now can you get your thumb out of your mouth pickygrammercheckboy? LOL

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

How come Ohio and Indiana have more stupid people per square mile than any other state in the Union?

Is it the educational system?

"Small town values?"

or just genetics??

Posted by: toritto | October 22, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

"Youth turnout is predicated upon excitement. To date, there is little excitement in this election."

You're right. 100,000 in St. Louis. 75,000 in KC. They must have been there for the free t-shirts.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 22, 2008 2:05 PM | Report abuse

gracedelvillar

So you are saying that Obama will be like bush and McCain. You remember bush? They president who's family did business with the Bin ladin family, Sadam Huesain, and other people that they now consider radial enemies? How about McCains policies reflecting the bush doctrine over and over again? Sorry, I have met the boogeyman and he is our current president. Stop wasting your time trying to make Obama the boogeyman. You are not a democrat and you are not black. You are just as dishonest as spam ads. And your whole theory is just a scare tactic you have drummed up in line with the typical republican ploy of fear. The problem is Bush has made it kind of difficult for you to scare people into voting for McCain. Except the fact that republicans will lose, not because Obama is soo great, we dont know how good he will be, but he is the closest thing to change from bush we have to choose from. Deal with that, republican, ooops I mean democrat half black voter for McCain/Palin.

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Its "Straits" for Pete's Sake, People!

Posted by: JohnDinHouston | October 22, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

FIXISTA, BEWARE: IS BIG BROTHER HACKING YOU?


It appears that some entity is exercising prior restraint and outright censorship of mainstream media blogs.

An attempt to post here, and at the Chicago Sun-Times yesterday, was met by the same full-screen message that the post was "being held for the blog owner."

THIS IS CENSORSHIP OF MAINSTREAM MEDIA BLOG SITES.

It appears that this censorship is being electronically targeted at certain readers.

This poster is being prevented from freely communicating via email, hence this public post.

Media, ACLU: Please investigate this; if it's happening to me, it's most likely happening to many others.


http://www.nowpublic.com/world/parallel-internet-big-brother-screening-censoring-political-blogs OR (if the link becomes disabled)
members.nowpublic.com/scrivener re: "The Parallel Internet..."

p.s. If my links don't work, please contact www.nowpublic.com site administrators via their "contact" page, or a post to another nowpublic.com blog.


Posted by: scrivener50 | October 22, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

"Chris...Your [sic] no Matt Drudge but your [sic] sure gaing [sic] a reputation as a one brain cell guy...do us all a favor and grow another one...the one you have is getting lonely."

For criticizing Chris for the lack of a brain cell, you might want to use a few more of yours. Or at least a grammar checker. You're, not your, gainINg, and one only uses a single period at the end of the sentence. Elipses signify a thought trailing.... zzzzzzzzzzzzz

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 22, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

zouk sputters:

Regardless of the unbderlying reason, there is a polling bias toward Democrats. In every election but the Kerry one, there was a large poling error indicating a big Dem lead which did not materialize. I will find the numbers and post them.

this implies that Obama had better be ahead by a comfortable margin, say greater then 4. At this moment he is behind in FL, OH and MO. this means that VA holds the key to the election.

given that the military prefers McCain by 66%, I think Norfolk and the SW is safely in R hands. the question then is turnout in NOVA or as we may begin to call it soon, southern Maryland.
-----------------------


We've already shown the meaninglessness of the military poll you keep referring to.

As to Fl, MO, and Oh...they really don't matter anymore in terms of the electoral college.

Even your beloved Zogby stated today that all things point to Obama's continued rise.

Enjoy your trip along de Nile.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 1:59 PM | Report abuse

LOTS OF HILLARY SUPPORTERS ARE WORKING FOR MMCAIN/PALIN AND VOTING FOR MCCAIN/PALIN 2008.

HILLARY 2012

Posted by: gracedelvillar | October 22, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse
---------------------------------------
A couple of questions:
(A) How do you square those tactics with the fact that Hilary Clinton is actively campaigning for Obama and has asked her supporters to vote for him? Do you believe she's lying and just faking her support? Personally, I can't think of a greater insult to her than that.
(B) How do you square those tactics--voting for McCain/Palin not because you want them in the Whitehouse but because you evidently think McCain will either screw up so badly that he can't win a double term or will die in office--with a love for country? What I'm really asking is, how do you sleep at night?

I've asked this on Washington Post threads before of McCain'08/Clinton'12 people and have never received *any* reply.

Posted by: multiplepov | October 22, 2008 1:58 PM | Report abuse

"LOTS OF HILLARY SUPPORTERS ARE WORKING FOR MMCAIN/PALIN AND VOTING FOR MCCAIN/PALIN 2008."

Hillary Who?

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 1:57 PM | Report abuse

I feel like some of these issues are being undersold here.

We won't be able to assess the Bradley Effect until November 5th, if ever. If Obama wins, we'll likely never know how race played into the results. If he loses, we'll at least have the polls as a baseline. Young voters may have changed, but have we as a country really moved forward?

Youth turnout is predicated upon excitement. To date, there is little excitement in this election. If the media narratives continue to prematurely proclaim an Obama victory, the sense of urgency instilled in many voters may subside. Obama's campaign has done a great job so far, but he has to close the deal and get out the vote.

I also think the October surprise is vastly underappreciated by commenters. True, McCain's campaign has been downgright laughable at times, and his September surprise (suspending his campaign) was certainly a bust. But there are a great deal of scenarios over the next two weeks, both engineered and happenstance, that could drastically alter the landscape of this election.

This is not over.

Posted by: JohninMpls | October 22, 2008 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Well, here's one possible "game-changer". It turns out that according to an outfit that specializes in monitoring Al Qaida websites, the group sees John McCain as their best hope for bankrupting the United States with unwise wars.

So Obama isn't getting quite *all* the major endorsements, it seems!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/21/AR2008102102477.html

Posted by: B2O2 | October 22, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

Young voters did turn out in the 2004 Iowa Caucuses but they turned out for John Kerry not Howard Dean. The giant surge in the youth vote started in Iowa in 2004 and has continued since then with big improvements in the youth vote in the 2004 General, 2006 General and in the primaries this year. Just because the candidate who was supposed to win the youth vote in 2004 Iowa caucuses, didn't doesn't mean it wasn't there. In fact, Kerry won every major college in Iowa (Iowa, Iowa State, Grinnell etc)

Posted by: BCJ11 | October 22, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

Rushbot gushed:

LOTS OF HILLARY SUPPORTERS ARE WORKING FOR MMCAIN/PALIN AND VOTING FOR MCCAIN/PALIN 2008.

HILLARY 2012
----------------


LOL.

Sorry Hon, the reality is that 95% of them are firmly behind Obama.

Few even show up for her appearances any more.

Nice try though.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 1:54 PM | Report abuse

THE WORLD DON'T NEED AN OLD WAR MONGER MCCAIN.
We need fresh, new ideas...

NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 22, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Yes, the turnout among the young, the disaffected and minorities will be huge. I saw it happen for Jesse Ventura (less the minorities because it was MN) and with Obama's ground game I cannot believe it won't happen for him. It changes the math of the electorate and validates the warning: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results."

The real story of the 2008 election is Howard Dean. Dean was like the first guy to try powered flight. He crashed and burned and the majority of people said, "See, man will never fly." But some people looked a little closer and said, "You know, he really came remarkably close. I think this flying thing could work." Dean showed how to raise money on the Internet, how to energize the young and the liberal wing of the party, how a Democrat could play in red areas and how you cannot control your Internet connected hordes like you can control traditional campaign workers. He also showed the wired youth that you actually have to show up and vote: blog postings don't count at the ballot box. Dean and Trippi made the mistakes and the Obama campaign either learned from them or by pure luck managed to avoid repeating them. What Nixon and Atwater were to the last forty years of Republican strategy, Dean, Trippi, Obama, Axelrod and Plouffe will be to future campaign strategies.

Posted by: caribis | October 22, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

mj9501 asks
"if mccain wins (which he won't) it is a continuation of Bush or if obama wins (which he will) we get inexperience - just like Bush (expect with the ability to talk). Buyers remorse - how long before that will set in???"

I can't help myself. I am morbidly curious. mj9501, who would you rather see taking the oath on Jan 20th? Someone from the primaries, or someone that wasn't running at all? Who is the person we desperately need at this time in history, that we ignorantly overlooked over the last year and a half this campaign has been going on? I'm dying to know.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 1:52 PM | Report abuse

"LOTS OF HILLARY SUPPORTERS ARE WORKING FOR MMCAIN/PALIN AND VOTING FOR MCCAIN/PALIN 2008.

HILLARY 2012"

No, only the sad, pathetic ones.

Obama is poised to do better among Democrats than Gore or Kerry.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 1:49 PM | Report abuse

October surprise should not be a surprise at all except for Obama camp.

Isreal will strike Iran's nuclear sites before Nov 4th...

Posted by: seawolfR | October 22, 2008 1:48 PM | Report abuse

The Palin scenario:

shortly after McShame's fifth heart attack, Iran decides to toy with Kato Palin and see if she is as pit-bullesque as advertised. they block the Straits of Hormuz and oil prices shoot to the sky. the world economy, already rocked by sharply increased taxes is now in despair.

President Palin, what do you want to do about Iran? Gas prices are skyrocketing!

Drill, baby, drill.

you could send in a carrier group?

What is a carrier group? Is that how I handled Putin?

No, it is a small fleet of naval warships.

Is that how a Wal-Mart mom would react?

there is always Neiman-Marcus.

Let me consult Levi and Track, think it over for a few weeks, let them know I am a hockey mom and I will come up with a compromise in a couple of days, two weeks at the most. Set up a hate rally to see what Real Americans think. See if Bristol can come downstairs and decide for me. And get Obama on the line.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 22, 2008 1:48 PM | Report abuse

Come on chris. You know that the media has been goo-goo over obama ever since he has been in the race. the media likes to be the king maker and double standards have run afoul throughout this while primary and general campaign. even biden is getting a pass. In a couple of week another inexperience man will be elected as president just like they did in 2000. the superdelegates chose obama and ultimaltey gave him the election - now we have to choose between another inexperienced man or a man seen as over the hill. the choices are awful. either way you cut, if mccain wins (which he won't) it is a continuation of Bush or if obama wins (which he will) we get inexperience - just like Bush (expect with the ability to talk). Buyers remorse - how long before that will set in???

Posted by: mj9501 | October 22, 2008 1:47 PM | Report abuse

The real issue of the last week of the campaign will be the ways that the GOP will try to steal the election by denying access to the ballot for groups leaning toward Obama such as young people, black people, and others living in the "anti-American" parts of the country.

The Bradley Effect will be unimportant: youth will vote in astounding numbers because they are excited and inspired by Barack Obama, blacks will vote for him with a sense of overwhelming humility and pride, whites will vote for him with a feeling of hope and optimism for the future of our nation.

We will all wake up on November 5 at the dawn of a new era for the United States.

Posted by: dee5 | October 22, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

RE: Youth Vote - My personal opinion, for what it's worth is that there will be a measurable increase in the youth vote from previous elections, somewhere between 5 and 10 % - while not a dramatic increase, since the vote will tilt Senator Obama's way, this is one of the little things that will make the difference in this election.

Posted by: JohnDinHouston | October 22, 2008 1:45 PM | Report abuse

king_of_zouk

Same senario, After the gang of Mavericks's get into the white house and the same thing happens you mention in your post. What would a maverick do? Sarah Palin ask McCain. Well we will just go in their like two mavericks and bomb,bomb,bomb,bomb,bomb, Iran. We will be met as liberators, we can then control the straights while we occupy Iran and Iraq, knock out their nuclear capabilities get that oil through the pipeline to a safehaven for western consumption and the price of oil will be stable again. All thanks to those two Mavericks. Is that how it will happen? Yes, I can imagine Palin leading us in the victory.

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 1:44 PM | Report abuse

"At this moment he is behind in FL, OH and MO. this means that VA holds the key to the election."


Your map must not include Colorado, New Mexico & Iowa.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

"OHIO REPORTED A LOWER "EARLY VOTER" TURN OUT RATE. WHY WAS THAT NOT REPORTED?"

Because the end of the registration period coincided with the beginning of early voting. Do you think the campaign was more focused on the first week of early voting or on getting every last possible registrant?

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse

ELECTRONIC VOTING: THE UNKNOWN DANGER

With a lack of a voter-verified paper trail, recounts are impossible in most jurisdictions using electronic voting machines, which are computers susceptible to manipulation.

A Princeton professor has demonstrated how easily these machines can be hacked. The stealing of Election '08 could be underway right now; early voting increases the opportunities for mischief.

Among mainstream media, only Lou Dobbs has reported extensively on this danger to democracy.

Could it be that the fix already is in?

WHAT IF McCAIN-PALIN'S STRATEGY IS AIMED NOT JUST AT VOTERS, BUT AT THE APPARACHIK?

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/mccain-palins-fellow-traveler-insinuations-what-if-u-s-security-forces-agree

OR members.nowpublic.com/scrivener


ARE THE McCAIN-PALIN CROWD AGITATORS THE SAME STORMTROOPERS WHO DO THIS:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens


(Note: Earlier attempts to make this post were met by a full screen message saying the post was being "held for the blog owner." I believe that some entity is exercising prior restraint on mainstream media sites such as "The Fix." If that's what's happening, it's a bold and dangerous bid by an authoritarian element.)


Posted by: scrivener50 | October 22, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Something I'm very concerned about are reports that were aired on Rachael Maddow's MSNBC program on October 21, 08. Republicans have been very busy suppressing Democratic votes in key states. Apparently, as in the last two elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans have been purging Democratic voters from voter registration lists, if there is even a minor inconsistency in the way a voter's name is listed on Federal or state documents. For instance, if my name is listed as Jane Jones on my drivers license, but other state or Federal records list my name as Jane P. Jones, or if my address has changed, my name would be removed from the voter registration list. While this scam was used in a few states in the last two elections, this practice has since been expanded by the Republicans into all of the key states. For low-income voters, many of whom may not have a drivers license or other photo ID, there is also a problem with requiring voters to show an ID. This also suppresses the vote for Democrats.

These fraudulent practices need to be investigated BEFORE the election, reversed, and strategies put into place for anyone encountering this problem on election day. I realize there isn't much time before November 4th, but this simply can't be allowed to happen yet again. Democrats can demand an investigation into these practices and refuse to allow another election to be stolen by right-wing republicans. Say no to another 4-8 years of incompetent leadership at a critical time in our country.

Posted by: caroll1 | October 22, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Just learned from the Washington Post that al Qaeda has announced that they are praying for a McCain-Palin victory in November. I'm writing an article about al Qaeda for an encyclopedia set, and I must say I'm not surprised. McCain and Palin have embraced the neocon foreign policy with enthusiasm, and the neocons were the best thing that ever happened to al Qaeda. They seemed to have an uncanny ability to play into AQ's hands at every turn.

Posted by: osullivanc1 | October 22, 2008 1:39 PM | Report abuse

The Youth Vote is a huge unknown. How many Under-30 voters will simply skip the trip to the voting booth? Compared with past presidential elections, I've spoken with a lot more Under-30s who care about the results. Will they follow up on their fire?

How well represented are Under-30 voters in all of these polls? If pollsters only call home landlines, how many of the cellphone youth do they reach? Is there a difference between cellphone-only youth and landline youth (still living with their parents, perhaps)?

If Young Americans vote in droves, this truly will be called a landmark election!

Posted by: dognabbit | October 22, 2008 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Zouk, that's an amusing anecdote, and apparently you really have not been paying any attention to Senator Obama during this campaign to think that that is how he'd react...

Why don't you go write for the comics page of the newspaper? It would take the pressure off.

Posted by: JohnDinHouston | October 22, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

October Surprise? I like surprises!

Posted by: davemon | October 22, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Hi Chris,
I think all of your points real. A couple them, I think, can be guaranteed.
We can count on an October Surprise from McCain/Palin. However, it think it will prove to be as trivial and ridiculous as "Joe the Plumber" and William Ayres. They throw a couple of more foolish grenades his way, but, it will be equally haphazard and goofy. My guess: an ex-girlfriend from high school who's still mad over a lousy Christmas gift he gave her.
The other is a Game-Changing Gaffe. With Palin now getting loose lips and her running mate getting squirmy , there will be more bizarre comments about Obama's heritage, gays, un-patriotic Americans, Blacks. The possibilities are endless, especially with other Republicans joining the team and saying foolish things.

Posted by: jaynashvil | October 22, 2008 1:34 PM | Report abuse

Actually Zouk, check out the Zogby Poll today - you'll find some interesting information regarding military preference in this election.

Grace, you're insane.

While not a supporter of Al-Jazerra's propaganda efforts, would anyone like to hazard a guess as to just how many of McCain/Palin supporters are in fact white racists? It would be an intersting and impossible fact to know, but just curious.

Posted by: JohnDinHouston | October 22, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

sagereader

Thats the old Joe Scarborough spin. Bring up the one lame attempt by a republican controlled congress and president to address the lending practices of banks as a way to blame democrats for not voting for whatever bill republicans put out there. Tell me what did the bill consist of specifically? Why is Obama somehow more responsible for lending practices of banks then a republican controlled govenment that introduced deregulation in the first place. Such simplistic accusations is why republicans can win. They are looking for reasons to deflect blame instead of taking some responsibility for having this go on for 10 years under your control and using one failed bill attempt as a weak attempt to change it. How many months did bush push his attempts to privatize SS? Start the war in iraq, his lame healthcare bill, the patriot act, spying on civilians? A lot longer than he spent trying to regulate wall st banking practices. The real question is why didn't congress come up with a bill that addressed wall st lending by putting restrictions on price gauging in the housing industry so there would not have been any bad loans in the first place? Why did congress allow houses to increase in value by 200 and 300 percent in less than a 10 year period? Knowing the people they were targeting as buyers could not qualify for loans unless they used the crazy lending practices they did? They allowed the realators, appraisers and developers to created the bubble then convince the banks to financially support it knowing that they had no intention of doing that once the loans were defaulted on. How about regulating wall st loopholes that allowed them to bundle mortgages as swaps instead of loans in order to get around covering them if they defaulted? Stop it with the simplistic blame game. Tell me what part of 2004 could the democrats stop republicans from having their way if they really wanted to?

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

The Biden scenario:

shortly after The Messiah's inauguration, Iran decides to toy with the ONE and see if he is as docile as advertised. they block the straights of Hormuz and oil prices shoot to the sky. the world economy, already rocked by sharply increased taxes is now in despair.

President Obama, what do you want to do about Iran?

What are my options?

you could send in a carrier group?

What is a carrier group? Is that part of my health care initiative?

No, it is a small fleet of naval warships?

I don't want to appear beligerent.

there is always the Marines.

Let me consult my many advisors, think it over for a few weeks, let them know I am PRESENT and I will come up with a compromise in a couple of days, two weeks at the most. Set up a poll to see what the voters think. See if my wife can come downstairs and decide for me. And get hillary on the line.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

"Accuracy in Media produced a documentary about the channel, warning U.S. cable and satellite providers to beware of its incendiary programming."

That wasn't al-Jazeera. That was FOX News.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 22, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

LOTS OF HILLARY SUPPORTERS ARE WORKING FOR MMCAIN/PALIN AND VOTING FOR MCCAIN/PALIN 2008.

HILLARY 2012

Posted by: gracedelvillar | October 22, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Had the Dems bothered to do what the GOP in 2004 to John Kerry, John McCain wouldn't even be in this race.

Because as opposed to the fictitious 'swift-boater' accounts, there is quite a bit of documentary video evidence available regarding John McCain and the treatment of families of those MIA in Vietnam. You'll find yourself asking why certain documents remain classified. Why, indeed?

I have a video posted. Don't take my word for anything. Watch it and then google the topic for yourselves. I also provide a link to a recent comprehensive article on the topic.
http://scootmandubious.blogspot.com/2008/10/john-mccains-betrayal-of-pow-mia.html

Posted by: scootmandubious | October 22, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Colin Powell’s predicted and expected endorsement of Barack Obama was transformed into big news by the pro-Obama media. But Arab propaganda channel Al-Jazeera’s intervention in the U.S. presidential contest is also extremely significant.


Al-Jazeera, a mouthpiece for enemies of the United States, aired a Moammar Gadhafi speech praising Obama and followed with a story depicting supporters of Sarah Palin as white, racist Christians. The channel is subsidized by the oil-rich Sunni Muslim plutocracy/dictatorship in Qatar.


The Al-Jazeera “reporter” who did the hit piece on Palin was Casey Kaufmann, who surfaces in Federal Election Commission (FEC) records as a $500 contributor to the Obama-for-president campaign and is based in Doha, Qatar.


The first plank in Al-Jazeera’s “code of ethics” includes a statement about “giving no priority to commercial or political considerations over professional ones,” which would seem to preclude political activities and contributions.

Al-Jazeera is the mouthpiece for al-Qaida and other terrorist groups and inspires foreign Muslim fighters to go to places like Iraq and Afghanistan to kill Americans. Accuracy in Media produced a documentary about the channel, warning U.S. cable and satellite providers to beware of its incendiary programming.


Posted by: seawolfR | October 22, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

What am I going to do for daily entertainment after Nov 4? I doubt the new Knight Rider is even fractionally as entertaining.

Posted by: Pupster | October 22, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse
----------------

post election come down. After a year of day in and day out election stuff we will all need a break. I got all caught up in the OJ trial and when it was over it was a little strange. After Nov 4th, I am getting on the boat and going to the islands for a couple of weeks. I sure will not be reading any more political blogs for a long time. MSNBC and Fox will have to go back to real news and all those big ratings will disappear. A few of those reporters who have built their careers around this almost 2 year election. We will have to see if they can do any real reporting now.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 22, 2008 1:23 PM | Report abuse

Will young people vote?

Oh yes, Chris.

They've seen what NOT voting can cost us.

Posted by: wardropper | October 22, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN LEADS IN THE POLLS AMONG WHITE VOTERS 53% OVER OBAMA'S 42% ACCORDING TO YESTERDAY'S FINANCIAL TIMES.
WHY IS THE MEDIA NOT REPORTING THAT?

OBAMA NEVER WON THE WHITE SUBURBAN OR RURAL AMERICAN VOTER NOT EVEN DURING THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY. OBAMA PLANS TO WIN WITH THE BLACK VOTE BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY WILL COME OUT AND VOTE AND THEY DO NOT REPRESENT ALL OF AMERICA.

I AM A HALF BLACK DEMOCRAT AND VOTED FOR MCCAIN/PALIN AND MAILED MY BALLOT IN ALREADY. I DO NOT TRUST OBAMA AND HIS TERRORIST CONNECTIONS LIKE WILLIAM AYERS AND TONY REZKO.

OHIO REPORTED A LOWER "EARLY VOTER" TURN OUT RATE. WHY WAS THAT NOT REPORTED?

OBAMA IS BOUGHT AND PAID FOR BY OIL COMPANIES, WALL STREET AND OIL PUMPING NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND HUGO CHAVEZ IN VENEZUELA. THE MEDIA AND POLLSTERS ARE THERE TO SKEW THE FACT THAT AMERICANS ARE NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK GUY WITH A MUSLIM NAME.

OABAMA WILL ALLOW TIGHTER OIL SUPPLY AND GET THE BARREL TO $200 SO HIS AMIGOS IN IRAQ, IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA AND UAE CAN GET WEALTHY. THEY WILL USE THEIR SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS TO BUY UP AMERICA AND HER INFRASTRUCTURE.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

THE BRADLEY EFFECT IS ALIVE AND WELL. NONE OF MY FRIENDS OR FAMILY MEMBERS ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA BECAUSE HE IS A MIDDLE EAST PLANT AND HE GOT A BILLION DOLLARS FROM OIL PUMPING NATIONS TO GET THE WHITE HOUSE.
OBAMA IS THE ENEMY FROM WITHIN.

WE ARE WATCHING TV AND ARE LAUGHING BECAUSE WE ARE TELLING OBAMA FOLKS THAT WE ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA JUST TO MAKE THEM FEEL GOOD. WE ARE TIRED OF ARGUING WITH OBAMA FOLKS AND POLLSTER. WE ARE JUST TELLING THEM WE ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA BUT IN SECRET WE CAN'T STAND OBAMA.

YOU CAN SMELL AN OBAMA SUPORTER A MILE AWAY SO WE JUST TELL THEM WHAT THEY WANT TO HEAR.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I AM A DEMOCRAT. I ONLY KNOW 1 DEMOCRAT THAT IS VOTING FOR OBAMA. THE REST OF MY DEMOCRATIC FRIENDS ARE VOTING FOR MCCAIN OR INDEPENDENT. LAST ELECTION WHERE JOHN KERRY WAS 14 POINTS AHEAD IN THE POLLS ALL OF MY FRIENDS AND FAMILY WERE VOTING FOR THE DEMOCRAT JOHN KERRY.

AL GORE WAS 17% AHEAD IN THE POLLS. WE ALL VOTED FOR HIM AND HE STILL LOST.

WATCH OUT INDEPENDENTS AND REPUBLICANS! OBAMA WANTS YOU TO VOTE AGAINST BUSH AND VOTE AGAINST MCCAIN. BUT DEMOCRATS DO NOT LIKE OBAMA SO WHY SHOULD YOU?

Posted by: gracedelvillar | October 22, 2008 1:20 PM | Report abuse

Regardless of the unbderlying reason, there is a polling bias toward Democrats. In every election but the Kerry one, there was a large poling error indicating a big Dem lead which did not materialize. I will find the numbers and post them.

this implies that Obama had better be ahead by a comfortable margin, say greater then 4. At this moment he is behind in FL, OH and MO. this means that VA holds the key to the election.

given that the military prefers McCain by 66%, I think Norfolk and the SW is safely in R hands. the question then is turnout in NOVA or as we may begin to call it soon, southern Maryland.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 1:17 PM | Report abuse

tonyin_durham_nc is right. I dont think Gantt ever lead in any polls before the election and certainly not in the last few weeks/days. SO I dont think he is as good an example as the other two ref. the Bradley effect.

Posted by: k611 | October 22, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA'S DISASTROUS PLAN: DRIVER'S LICENSES for ILLEGALS

Obama wants to give a driver's license to any illegal alien who wants one. The 9/11 plot depended on such licenses.
Nineteen terrorists infiltrate the U.S.
Thirteen get driver’s licenses.

The 9/11 plot depended on easy to get licenses.
Obama’s plan gives a license to any illegal who wants one.
A license they can use to get government benefits, a mortgage, board a plane, even illegally vote.

See it at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbyocX-9_mo

Posted by: sagereader | October 22, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

CharlesHoogstraten

I agree with you. Obama is not good for Bin Laden. When your goal is to end war and try to bring peace in the middle east that diminishes Bin Laden, Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups who grew to notoriety based on leading muslim people who felt oppressed by the west. When there is peace in the region what is a radical to do? Just like the west needs an enemy to justify the military industrial complex so do the radicals of the world to justify their status and actions.

Posted by: gdavis4 | October 22, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA COST TAXPAYERS BILLIONS with FANNIE MAE

Back in 2004, when the Republicans controlled the House, they tried to have a hearing on the threat that the financial mismanagement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac presented to the U.S. economy. Here’s the video evidence of the Democrats blocking efforts to hold officials accountable. This problem did not get the publicity it deserved in the liberal media, such as the New York Times and the Washington Post. This incredible Congressional video shows Republicans in Congress trying to regulate better Fannie Mae and how the Democrats fought that tooth and nail, even referring to criticism of former chairman Raines as a "lynching".

See what happened at:
http://www.classicalvalues.com/archives/2008/09/it_wasnt_broke.html

Posted by: sagereader | October 22, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Another Serious Unknown:

Who is Todd Palin?

Todd Palin would have great influence in running the country if his wife and McCain are

elected. It is only fair that the American people know more about this man. He has played

a large role in his wife's governorship in Alaska--attending meeting, influencing hiring and

firing decisions. The American people still have not been introduced to Todd Palin. We

have not even heard the sound of his voice.

Posted by: bfletfhcpalmbch | October 22, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

If the Bradley Effect is real, and if it costs Obama 6 points per state (this is the number I've read and heard most), then Obama squeaks by with 273 electoral votes, if we use today's Pollster numbers.

These are all BIG IFs.

Posted by: dognabbit | October 22, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

"Premise: Osama bin Laden recognizes that it is to his advantage when America pursues policies that alienate allies, undermine moderate leaders in the Muslim world, and turn popular opinion among Moslems worldwide dramatically against the United States, not incidentally increasing the pool of radicalized young men that al Queda can draw on for recruits.

Observation: George Bush, with near-solid Republican support, has enthusiastically pursued such policies for the past six and one half years.

Conclusion: Contrary to rhetoric, al Queda's leaders would actively prefer a Republican victory in 2008.

Prediction: al-Queda will once again seek to remind the world of its existence in the next two weeks in order to tip the U.S. election to John McCain -- not because McCain is any sort of traitor, but because he's not smart enough to avoid playing into bin Laden's hands. (I have my suspicions that the release of the tape in 2004 may have been deliberate and calculated for precisely this reason. Successfully).

Let's hope I'm wrong.

Posted by: CharlesHoogstraten | October 22, 2008 12:29 PM"

==========================================
"Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election," said a commentary posted Monday on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is closely linked to the terrorist group. It said the Arizona Republican would continue the "failing march of his predecessor," President Bush.
-- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/21/AR2008102102477.html?hpid=topnews

Posted by: news5 | October 22, 2008 1:07 PM | Report abuse

This has been a really interesting race, more incredible and astonishing than fiction. The personalities have been bigger, the stakes bigger, the historic significance monumental, the innovations more impactful. That said, I'm shocked that there are still undecideds. I feel like this election has been going on for a lifetime, and that if you don't know the candidates and their stances by now, there is something seriously wrong with you.

That said, who knows what the next two weeks will bring? I do have to tell you, that watching Palin shoot up into the stratosphere, then crash and burn in just a short 7 weeks, has got to set some sort of land0-speed record. Andy Warhol would be proud.

What am I going to do for daily entertainment after Nov 4? I doubt the new Knight Rider is even fractionally as entertaining.

Posted by: Pupster | October 22, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

If we must force something into the perennial 'October Surprise' category, it could be the info about the Palin wardrobe. Or the ongoing Bachmann/Palin claims about liberals' anti-Americanism.

Or, perhaps we can call McCain's latest trip to New Hampshire an October Surprise. I for one am surprised that he finds it productive to make the trip up there, given his position in the polls. Is it worthwhile to pursue 3 NH electoral votes, when you're on the cusp of losing 10 in CO, 20 in OH, 27 in FL, 13 in VA and 15 in NC? Seriously, how is that not a surprising move?

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

The biggest threat to democracy is using computer voting the old mark your X and count the vote is the best. Proper identification at all polling stations would also help with scrutineers from both parties spot checking.

Posted by: musing | October 22, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Chris...come on out in the open boy and say it.
OMG don't vote for Obama because he's black and we CAN'T have a black man as President!!!!!

Posted by: Grissom1001 | October 22, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

LOL Chris Chris Chris......your doing it again with great damage to your reputation.
Game Changers? Let me try my hand at it since I am a white, female 50 year old Republican voting democrat this year.

Palin/McCain violating campaign law by using campaign donations to purchase over 150 thousand dollars worth of clothing.

Palin once again showing that she has not a clue as to the job of VP evidenced by her interview with CNN yesterday when she misstated the power of VP and the Senate.

The last 4 weeks of ads show that McCain apprears to have huge problems with the truth.

3 campaign debate loses on the part of McCain and a loss for Palin too.

Pundits and conservetives are moving to Obama in droves.

The Palin affect? ALL polls are showing that Palin is dragging McCain down in the polls.

Palin has the lowest favorbility rating in the history of this country.

Obama has the endorsement of 26 major news papers that went for Bush in 2004

Gosh I guess it is all perspective isn't it? and who one is supporting in this election and your friendship with Matt Drudge is showing in your inability to stay in the middle.

Chris...Your no Matt Drudge but your sure gaing a reputation as a one brain cell guy...do us all a favor and grow another one...the one you have is getting lonely.

Posted by: Grissom1001 | October 22, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

The recent Palin stuff is about to blow up. The clothes, the haircuts, the family trips - you would have to be a real dumba$$ to vote for the McCain/Palin ticket now.

Not that that translates into more Obama/Biden votes. But now that it is sinking in what an unmitigated disaster Palin has been, the Repub "faithful" are going to think why bother, and stay home.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 22, 2008 12:50 PM | Report abuse

Why would an anonymous person care about whether a pollster thought he/she were racist?

Posted by: browneri | October 22, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

The reason for exploring the unknowns is simple.
Unless something stiking happens, this will be a huge win for Obama.
Nothing bums out a reporter more than no news.

Posted by: F_L_Palmer | October 22, 2008 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Heehee

"The International Socialist Conspiracy"

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081103/ehrenreich

Good for a laugh.....:-)

Posted by: toritto | October 22, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

The post-boomers are “so over it” yet their votes are based on age and skin pigment. They are so educated and intellectual but still believe in Santa. Take a clue from the past as the great (liberal) president JFK said “Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country”.

Posted by: leapin | October 22, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

"This election is far from a done deal. I was looking at one of the aggregators. Virtually all of the toss-up states go for McCain with a 5 point shift in the polls. [Recognizing that the polling data is inconclusive.] We've seen larger swings in the last two months, so this race could turn on a dime. Or, rather, a nickel."

The minimum that McCain needs now is an 8 point shift in order to pull Virginia back to his side. This is barring any dramatic shifts in the individual state level (supposedly McCain has a plan to take PA)

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

1. Will conservatives (particularly those motivated by social issues) stay home? That will have great impact on whether Obama can take red states like Georgia and Indiana and will heavily influence down-ballot races.

2. What is the Palin effect? Normally VP candidates make a marginal difference at most. She might be more important than usual. On one hand, McCain's age and her polarizing image may turn off independents. On the other, she may galvanize conservatives to turn out (see #1).

3. What is the Powell Effect? While endorsements, like running mates, don't usually matter much, is this one different?

Posted by: billmcg1 | October 22, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Call me paranoid, but I think the related issues of voter roll purges, goofy ballot designs, and overwhelming turnouts are going to get bigger as we get closer to election day.

If the campaigns have registered as many new voters as they say, there will be many tens out thousands of first-timers at the polls. Combine that with new--and untested--technology and the fact that most poll-workers are unfamiliar with new and changing rules and we have the recipe for serious issues in many key states like Ohio, Colorado, and Florida.

Colorado alone has purged 19,000+ voters from rolls, including 6,000+ new registrants. How ticked will these people be if they get fired up, go to the polls, only to get turned away?

And we are already hearing about early voters who have experienced faulty e-voting machines that have recorded their votes incorrectly, and poll-workers have been unable to assure them that their votes were counted correctly since no paper trail exists.

Regardless of who you support, please take time to learn the rules before 11/4. (For example, in NC, if you vote "straight ticket", you still must vote for your presidential choice.)

Posted by: dgloo | October 22, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse


Premise: Osama bin Laden recognizes that it is to his advantage when America pursues policies that alienate allies, undermine moderate leaders in the Muslim world, and turn popular opinion among Moslems worldwide dramatically against the United States, not incidentally increasing the pool of radicalized young men that al Queda can draw on for recruits.

Observation: George Bush, with near-solid Republican support, has enthusiastically pursued such policies for the past six and one half years.

Conclusion: Contrary to rhetoric, al Queda's leaders would actively prefer a Republican victory in 2008.

Prediction: al-Queda will once again seek to remind the world of its existence in the next two weeks in order to tip the U.S. election to John McCain -- not because McCain is any sort of traitor, but because he's not smart enough to avoid playing into bin Laden's hands. (I have my suspicions that the release of the tape in 2004 may have been deliberate and calculated for precisely this reason. Successfully).

Let's hope I'm wrong.

Posted by: CharlesHoogstraten | October 22, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

This election is far from a done deal. I was looking at one of the aggregators. Virtually all of the toss-up states go for McCain with a 5 point shift in the polls. [Recognizing that the polling data is inconclusive.] We've seen larger swings in the last two months, so this race could turn on a dime. Or, rather, a nickel.

BB

pookiecat - that's a silly comment. I was listening to the radio the other day and Cilizza was on line from FLORIDA. That's right, a swing state. What a shock for a political reporter. Perhaps you need to get out from behind your keyboard. :-)

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 22, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Well.... I have two thoughts on the election as pertaining to your questions.

First, and maybe most important, is that Obama is a transcendant candidate in several ways, but the most influential is that he's a post boomer. This will ultimately be more important than his racial heritage. I think that's why young people (like myself) will and are turning out to vote and volunteering in record numbers. And that's why they didn't in the past.

Second, McCain's strategy has been completely misguided. Its been a plaintiff-defendant style where he's been putting Obama on trial for not being "ready-to-lead". The problem with that strategy is that he is in fact ready and presidential caliber. That's nothing to say about his policies but I think that its misguided to try and put the emphasis on his personal readiness and not on policies.

Anyhow, those are my thoughts, keep up the good work and don't let anyone get complacent less than two weeks out!

Posted by: CbusGuy | October 22, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

I don't think it matters what happens even international. Mccain have proven to be unsteady and not a leader. Any happening will just drive even more to the safety of a steady cool headed Obama.
There are no questions to answer about Obama anymore. He has closed the deal. I like the idea that the American took so long to make up their minds. I feel they are comfortable now and nothing will move them again. They will just become more galvanized in their decision. as far as the Bradely effect, if it existed at all. You can't talk about something that happened 26 year ago before the internet, cell phones, 24 hour news cycles and so on, and try to equate it to today. People are far more informed today and harder to fool. Lord knows Mccain has tried but I believe he underestimated the intelligence of the people. This is a new day and unfortunately Mccain is living in the past, in a lot of ways.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 22, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Dear Chris:

You and a lot of other political pundits are trapped in a time warp that looks at things from a perspective that is passe'. I would suggest you get out behind your PC or laptop and take a walk down the street and actually SEE what this country looks like ... it is very multi-cultural, white, black, latino, asian. The current under 30 generation cannot even relate to things like the "Bradley effect", nor do they care to. They are more concerned about their future. That's why they'll turn out in massive numbers to vote for Senator Obama. What this election has confirmed, and one need only look at a electoral college map, is that the deep south still has utterly failed to get over its racial problem, although it's morphed into some weird anti-Muslim rhetoric. The rest of the country has grown up, accepted being educated and informed as a good idea, and flat out hates politics as usual, and that includes the political writing we are fed. If the minority pin heads want to spend their unemployed, angry day watching Fox News, so be it. The rest of us have moved on. Won't you come and join us? You might find that writing something positive is actually good for the soul.

Posted by: pookiecat | October 22, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

I have an extended mixed family comprising Filipino, Chinese, Jewish, and Puerto Rican and Irish living in NY, GA, VA, and NC. We have a lot of Gen X members and friends. I asked them if they will vote and they unanimously said, yeah, this is too important to us and for us to miss! They are all for Obama. I told them this is your time and we had our moment already in the 60s.

Posted by: bgreston | October 22, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse


Is it me, or is everybody getting into "chase my own tail until the election is decided" mode?

BTW, Gantt didn't stand a chance in 1990. He was running against Jesse Helms, for heaven's sake. The dead rose every 7 years for that guy. Believe me. I was there.

Posted by: tony_in_Durham_NC | October 22, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

Great questions- maybe they would be answered on November 5th.-

Don't you have any real issues to write about anymore? Your blog is getting as boring as the news columns in the Post and listening to the TV news. It has all been said over and over in 100 different ways.

Posted by: peterdc | October 22, 2008 11:57 AM | Report abuse

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