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Kentucky and Oregon Primary Predictions

The Fix is in. Or at least back in nation's capital.

And not a moment too soon. The presidential primaries head to Kentucky and Oregon today, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) expected to claim the former and Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) the latter.

Polls suggest Clinton will win in a blowout in Kentucky while Obama may find himself in a slightly more competitive contest in Oregon. (If you haven't bookmarked pollster.com yet, do it today. You'll thank us in the fall.)

If it's a primary day, then readers have a shot at winning an official Fix t-shirt. As always, we want the correct order of finish (with percentages) for Obama and Clinton in Oregon and Kentucky. We also want your best guess about the dominating storyline coming out the two primaries.

A Fix t-shirt each to the Fixista closest to the exact percentage in Oregon, Kentucky and on the overall storyline of the day/night. And because the Fix is feeling magnanimous, there's a t-shirt to the Fixista who comes closest to predicting the outcome (with percentages) of the Democratic Senate primary in Oregon between state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and party activist Steve Novick.

All predictions MUST be made in the comments section below; guesses e-mailed to the Fix will not be accepted. All the polls will be closed in Kentucky by 7 p.m. EDT, so no predictions posted after that time will be eligible.

Predict away!

By Chris Cillizza  |  May 20, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Primary Predictions Redux: The Mountain State Primary
Next: McKinnon To Step Aside From McCain Effort

Comments

Clinton has taken Kentucky and Obama has done it in Oregon.
The Democratic race for nomination is still very much alive - and most likely to be decided by superdelegates - as CNN points out clearly

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/primary.wrap/index.html


If you're tired of waiting around for those super delegates to make a decision already, go to LobbyDelegates.com and push them to support Clinton or Obama

If you haven't done so yet, please write a message to each of your state's superdelegates at http://www.lobbydelegates.com

Obama Supporters:

Sending a note to current Obama supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Clinton supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Obama, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Obama. It's that easy...

Clinton Supporters too .... !

It takes a moment, but what's a few minutes now worth to get Clinton in office?! Those are really worth !

Sending a note to current Clinton supporters lets them know it's appreciated, sending a note to current Obama supporters can hopefully sway them to change their vote to Clinton, and sending a note to the uncommitted folks will hopefully sway them to vote for Clinton. It's that easy...

Posted by: Jack | May 22, 2008 5:10 AM | Report abuse

Re: 52/48 split amongst boomers
The "52-48" Comes from the fact that boomers were split between two slices of CNN's exit poll data. I composited together the 50+ data with the 35-50 slice since they were within 1% of total turnout and a real analysis would have taken far longer than it would have been worth. It probably would have also given the same number, or at least something that would have rounded or truncaced to that d/t sig digits.

Ohio:
You do know that those aren't all students at Ohio State games, do you? Plus, what makes you so sure that all of those kids that didn't vote whould have voted for Kerry? Some of them might have voted for Bush, others for Nader. You can't assume they're Democratic votes because they're young.

BHO Vs HRC::
I was undecided for a long time, Super Tuesday, in fact (VA resident). They're similar in every single respect, which is why the debates on policy were so dull. That's why we've had all this extra crap going on, because the MSM needs a story.I have great respect for the Hill-dawg. I'm a BHO supporter because I don't want a psuedo-dyansty. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy with HRC, but whether she gets my vote in a GE depends on HOW she wins. I'd still vote on downballots, because there's no sense in punishing Mark Warner. Kids who are coming out of college now (b 1986) have known nothing but Bushes and Clintons for all their days. This is probably part of the reason you're seeing groundswell amongst the younger ranks that they just can't explain. BHO (or JSMc) represent change simply because they're neither a Bush nor a Clinton.

Campaigning Pissing contest:
I posted leaflets and canvassed in Tulare County, California for Bill Clinton's 1996 Campaign. Look up the PVI on that county and then STFU. If I had stuck around, I'd probably be a superdelegate by now :-P. In 2004 and 2000 I voted. WTF more do you want? As a canidate, Kerry sucked. Can we please be honest with ourselves and admit that now? That man couldn't convice a fish to take to water. Watching him was like watching a bad Punch and Judy show. I kept looking for his strings. As I mentioned already, I was out of the country in 2000, and voted by absentee. Who's acting superior now? The only election I missed was the CA Recall, and that was because my County Elections office didn't get me my ballot in time. I still have that ballot, as it's truly a sight to behold. One question followed by ~70 names.

Your resentment:
And I resent you. Grow a thicker skin. It will help against bedsores when your children are foreced to put you in a crappy nursing home because your Medicare can't afford anything nice.

Generations:
Get this though your head: Gen Y was born 1982-1997. Most of the 18-30 set in 2004 and espeically 2000 was Gen X, not Gen Y. And who said anything about video games? I said that Gen X let MTV stop playing music videos. Some lawyer... Can't even read.

Posted by: Mason | May 21, 2008 3:39 PM | Report abuse

Thank god your an attorney and not doing real work as an engineer or something. Your apttitude with numbers is horrid, and blatent disregard for them is staggering. I'll keep it short since you seem easisly confused.

A useful metaphor is a board of directors. Sure you can pack the board, but you see declining returns with that strategy since by packing you dilute the power of every pre-exisiting board member. It's better to replace people.

FACTS IN CAPS.
Sources: Census Data, CNN exit polls.
Derrived in lower.
Assumptions: Margin of victory holds as turnout varies. Turnout holds as margin of victory varies.

1)ONLY 20 MILLION OF GEN Y WAS ELLIGIBE TO VOTE.
2) 40% DID. THEY VOTED 54/45/1 FOR KERRY.
3) FROM 1) and 2) 8 million gen Yers voted.
4) 83 MILLION WERE ELIGIBLE.
5) 58.8 MM VOTED. THEY VOTED 52/48 FOR GWB.
6) Gen Y gave Kerry a .66 MM advangage.
7) 10% more turnout in that block gives a .8 MM advange, a swing of 200K votes.
8) 100% Turnout gives a ~2 MM advantage to Kerry (20MM * .54-(20MM *.45)~= 2MM), representing a swing of 1.34 MM votes.
9) Boomers voted for Bush by a margin of 2.36 MM.
10) A swing of one point in the boomer pop represents 588K votes changing their minds and a swing of 1.18 MM votes.
11) Had boomers voted as their wiser, more attractive offspring had, Bush would have lost by about 6 MM votes in the boomer demo. This represents an 8 MM vote swing from what actually happened.
12) From 9) and 8): The max margin that Y could have given Kerry was less than the amount that the margin that Boomers gave bush.
13) Possible boomer swing on change in vote was much greater than possible Y swing on turnout
14) Since 12), Boomers were the cause of bush's election. There was nothing Y could do. Even had we all turned out, our votes would have been spread about the country (Rememer... EVs matter), and the swing from what actually happened would have been relatively small.
15) Since 13), boomers could have turned the election on it's head. While your votes still would have been spread all about, your swing would have been much larger (Six times, in fact), and would have been more likely to have an effect.
16) Due to 14) and 15) Boomers elected Bush, and to blame Y for not showing up is fallacious. There just weren't enough of us to make a difference one way or another.

Just can it, OK? You're wrong, because you've let the anger cloud your vision. May the numbers bring you clarity.

Posted by: Mason | May 21, 2008 3:06 PM | Report abuse

Mason: you keep blaming me and my generation for 2004 which is ridiculous. I gave 2 months of my law practice along with 50 other lawyers for voter protection and college GOTV activities in Denver and Columbus, what were you doing for the campaign. Complaining.

And yes I intended to make the point of re electing Pres Kerry, that was deliberate. 40% turnout in a Presidential election and you are proud of that why. And you understand that JK lost Ohio by less than 80,000 votes out of millions in Ohio. About the population of an Ohio State game. Oh yes they were busy with video games, great excuse and you blame us. Actullly Kerry lost the senior vote 52-48 I am not so ceratin of the 35-55 vote. Interesting comments I had at my caucus of several O supporters. And why are you supporting him I politely asked. Oh because his music is so much cooler than HC's. Not stereotying you or O, but it seems like that is why Sen. O connects to younger voters, many of those who couldn't find 5 minutes to stop W in 2004. That doesn't impress me and certainly is not grounds for you to constantly yell and blame me for not doing enough or saying its all boomer's fault. Again exactly what were you doing in the 2004 and 2006 campaigns. I ceratinly make no apologies but for my efforts but resent your personal and totally unwarranted attacks.

"1) Only the bottom end of that age cohort (the 18-22 segment) is Gen Y. Go find a Gen Xer to blame for the rest of it. I'm ticked at them too, because they were too busy watching MTV to care about anything (including the fact that MTV stopped playing music videos). In 2000 boomers were 55 at the oldest"and

Posted by: Leichtman | May 21, 2008 11:48 AM | Report abuse

40 years, eh, Peggy K, well I guess today would be a good day to grow up. she lost. get over it.

Posted by: j5 | May 21, 2008 1:23 AM | Report abuse

I used to think Obama might be a good choice, but I also believed it was too soon for him to run this race!

He is too in-experienced and too soft. If he can't take a little criticism without whining like a baby about how unfair it is. I guess he figures if he cries 'NO FAIR' loud enough, everyone will just leave him alone. What is he going to do when they REALLY come after him?

Hey, better yet, what is he going to do when the terrorists REALLY come after the USA? Cry & whine about how unfair they are? That will really show 'em!!

Also he is trying to play the 'George Bush game', if I ignore the truth and keep saying I won, if I get the media to say it enough, then everyone will just go away and let me have my way.

SORRY IT AIN'T HAPPENIN'!!

Wake Up people!! Is this where you want the country to go? Haven't we been sold out enough yet?

I am a die-hard democrat and I have been for 40 years!!! But I CAN NOT in good conscience vote for Obama! And I really DO NOT want to vote for McCain either.

So I either vote for Hillary Clinton or I can write in 'Mickey Mouse'. I suppose I will write in Hillary if it comes to that.


Posted by: Peggy K | May 21, 2008 12:08 AM | Report abuse

Missed this one from earlier:

"The bizarre additional explanation this time is that it was some other unnamed leader of Iran he may have had in mind for a get together. Two problems :1) it is a lie and 2) huh?"

Jennifer, the leader of Iran is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khemeni.

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 10:37 PM | Report abuse

Ah... I get you now.... We'd be talking about the re-election of Pres Kerry now... That makes more sense.

He'd probably still be as inspiring as a warm bucket of spit. That was his problem more than anything. Decent ideas, but dull, dull, dull, and completely incapable of inspiring anything except sleep. That's the beast of politics: good ideas aren't enough. You've got to actually make yourself stand out. That said, short attention spans regarding politics are hardly a trait unique to Gen Y.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 10:31 PM | Report abuse

And don't get me started on the 2000 election. The numbers on you boomer's influence vis-a-vis the Gen Y and their relative performance are even more damning for you people.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 10:02 PM | Report abuse

"70% to 47% in 2004, and you blame us? Had the college vote in 2004 been a mere 10% higher in Ohio we would not have had to deal with anything other than the re-election of Pres Kerry"

Three things pop out:
1) Only the bottom end of that age cohort (the 18-22 segment) is Gen Y. Go find a Gen Xer to blame for the rest of it. I'm ticked at them too, because they were too busy watching MTV to care about anything (including the fact that MTV stopped playing music videos). In 2000 boomers were 55 at the oldest and
2) In 2000 the age pyramid for the US had an hourglass figure. The chest was in the 55-36 range (You boomers, older Xers) and the hips were in 19-0 range (We Gen Yers). The waist in the middle was the Gen Xers. Each of your cohorts has about a 2.5MM more people in it than each of our cohorts, except for your oldest cohort (1945-1950), which is slightly smaller than our smallest cohort (0-4). Sparing you the math, there's about 4-6 MM more of you than there are of us. With that established, we'll fast forward to 2004.

Our generation's only voting age cohort in 2002 was the cohort that was 15-19 in 2000. There are about 20 MM of us. Let's assume your numbers are correct and say that we had 40% turnout. That means that there were 8 MM people voted, 4.32 MM for Kerry. Assuming the ratio stays the same, had even 10 percent more of us shown up, that would have meant 2MM more votes with 1.08MM going to Kerry for a grand total of 5.40 MM. Note that those votes would have been spread all about the country, but I doubt you could prove that they would have turned the election one way or another.

For comparison, in 2004 the boomer cohorts (54-36 in 2000) had over 84 MM individuals, of whom 58.8 million voted. That's nearly three times the Gen Yers who were ELIGIBLE to vote. These individuals voted for Bush by a composite average of 52-48 meaning that 30.58 MM voted for Bush and 28.22 MM voted for Kerry. So... What would have happened had you all been able to see through the BS Bush was spewing? Had one percent more of you voted for Kerry instead of bush (49K/51B), the split would have been 28.81 MM for Kerry and 29.98 for Bush. That's means the gap has closed from 2.36 MM to 1.17 MM. That's a swing of 1.2MM votes. Needless to say, had y'all voted as we did, the election would have been a walk for Kerry, as bush would have lost by about six million votes.

But you didn't.
Who's fault was that now? We may have failed to act, but you all acted, and missed the mark badly.

3) I assume that your reference to the "reelection" of president Kerry was a typo.

(NB: I haven't removed prison populations and ex-felons because that's too darn much work, but it wouldn't change the numbers all that much... A couple hundred thousand one way or another...)

Now let's look

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 9:55 PM | Report abuse

"If some serious dirt comes out on Obama between now and then, the superdelegates can change their mind!"

If such dirt existed, wouldn't we have heard it by now? Unless they're trying to sow discord, why would the Clintons have sat on it so long? Wouldn't it have been more politically expedient for them to drop it as soon as they had it and take out the only roadblock on Hillary's Highway of Inevitability? We've heard about BHO's church, his neighbor, his friend, his lapel, and his wife, so clearly the oppo teams have been digging but as of yet, they've come up with squat. While absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence, at some point, the talk of an October/May/June surprise becomes a bit absurd. To quote the old expression, "Where's da beef?"

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 8:52 PM | Report abuse

"Citizens age 65 and older had the highest registration rate (79 percent) while those age 18 to 24 had the lowest (58 percent). "The youngest group also had the lowest voting rate (47 percent), while those age 45 and older had the highest turnout (about 70 percent)."

70% to 47% in 2004, and you blame us? Had the college vote in 2004 been a mere 10% higher in Ohio we would not have had to deal with anything other than the re-election of Pres Kerry

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 8:43 PM | Report abuse

Here's the important thing that Obama supporters keep forgetting....

Until the delegates have actually voted at the convention...a pledge means NOTHING. Super delegates can vote any way they choose. If some serious dirt comes out on Obama between now and then, the superdelegates can change their mind! This is why this race is far from over!

I think Obama will look really silly (as will Edwards) for arrogantly claiming that Obama is the nominee when Obama loses a few months from now. The media equally silly for making the same claims. Nobody is nominee until a vote takes place at the convention.

Posted by: lil | May 20, 2008 8:15 PM | Report abuse

"yea we served it up to you on s silver platter in 2004 to defeat W and your generation said no we don t have time so don't lecture us and our generation."

In 2004, voters age 18-29 voted for Kerry 54-45. Voters 30 and older voted for Bush 53-47. Yeah, blame Gen Y for Dubya, clearly it was there fault for not showing up, not your generation for producing and voting FOR the guy.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297138/

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 7:36 PM | Report abuse

DDAW-
It was. Kerry won the 18-29 bracket (17% of the electorate) 54% to 45%. Bush won 30-44 (29%) 53% - 46%. Bush also won the 45 -59 bracket 51/48.

Basically, he's making up the numbers as he goes along. As a statistical programmer, I find that appalling.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 7:31 PM | Report abuse

You're a fool. Assuming a stable birthrate (dangerous, but I'll run with it), less than 27% of our generation could have voted in 2004, and less than 7% in 2000. Now tell me again how it's our fault that most of us didn't show up at the polls when we were in high school or even middle school.

IT'S. YOUR. FAULT.
YOU.
BOOMER.

I'm not blaming you for our failings. I'm blaming your for yours. You gave us W and WE have to deal with the consequences.
All you have to deal with us is your guilt and our righteous anger.

And Colorado? Why did you bother with Colorado? Bush won by ~108,000 votes in 2004 and had a 9% margin in 2000. That state was never going to go to for Gore or Kerry. Did you even talk to 108,000 18-22 yo voters? Here's a hint: No. You didn't. You would have had to talk to most of the college students in the state. Never mind that there are many in that cohort that don't or can't continue their education.

Plus there's the problem of the candidates the Dem party has put up the last couple of rounds. While many of their policies have been quite good, the candidates have been about as convincing as a warm bucket of spit. We're cynical. Sorry about that, but it's the way things are. Neither Gore nor Kerry really gave us much of a reason to vote for them because they were boring and unconvincing. Now we've got someone who's of a similar academic pedigree to those guys (better than Kerry), has similar policies and is riviting and actually has the ~50% of us that can vote convinced that we can make a difference and you're upset about the fact that we've noticed your screw up? If I didn't know any better, I'd say you're jealous.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 7:25 PM | Report abuse

"'The Clintons are an anathma (big word) to the Constitution"

Bigger than you realize...

Posted by: DDAWD | May 20, 2008 7:24 PM | Report abuse

"since Mason wants to blame boomers for W I just want him to understand a few things. 1. It was and likely will continue to be that in 2004 over 65 per cent of boomers turned out in mass support for Kerry-Edwards and your generation? after weeks of concerts and pandering I believe less than 40 percent"

Is this true? I could have sworn that the 18-25 was the only age group that Kerry won.

And I no longer believe you're a lawyer. Your writing is too atrocious. I don't mean your style. I mean your lack of a grasp of the rules of English.

"It was and likely will continue to be that in 2004 over 65 per cent of boomers turned out in mass support for Kerry-Edwards and your generation? after weeks of concerts and pandering I believe less than 40 percent"

Really? Is this even close to making sense?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 20, 2008 7:21 PM | Report abuse

a bully and a bigot? Why because I have chosen not to drink your kool aid or taken to be ordred by your campaign? For months we have read here that everyone who does not agree with Sen O is both evil and bullies. Even as he gets closer to the nomination his supporter's vitriol continues. And that is your electoral strategy for the fall?
'The Clintons are an anathma (big word) to the Constitution.' Because they too don t take orders from you or your campaign? And who is being a bully? Try next time reading your posts before submitting.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 7:18 PM | Report abuse

KY

Clinton = 80%
Obama = 20%

OR

Clinton = 40%
Obama = 60%

It is predicted that there will be a gradual shift in momentum back towards Clinton near the end of May. Around June 14-June 21, there will be an event that causes Obama to lose support among pledged delegates. Get ready for extreme volatility on July 28 and August 5th, a sudden surprising event. This will be the most divisive conflict in the Democratic Party...the battle favors Clinton as the winner.
http://www.modernvedicastrology.com/node/163

Posted by: lil | May 20, 2008 7:11 PM | Report abuse

since Mason wants to blame boomers for W I just want him to understand a few things. 1. It was and likely will continue to be that in 2004 over 65 per cent of boomers turned out in mass support for Kerry-Edwards and your generation? after weeks of concerts and pandering I believe less than 40 percent
2. That over 50 of my local lawyer friends left their families jobs and income to travel at our own unpaid expense to Denver and then on to Columbus Ohio for voter protection and college outreach. Our responze from college students was we are busy an there is not adime s difference between W and Kerry. And how did that work out for you and you have the chutzpah to blame me and my generation for W. Thanks for voting Mason but I don t recall running into you in either the snow of Denver or Colubus. Glad you could find the time to travel to Maga. I was busy trying to get your college friends to reject W. So blame boomers all you want for W but you mighy first bother to look in the mirror for blame.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 7:00 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky

Clinton 62
Obama 38


Oregon

Obama 58
Clinton 42


Oregon Senate Primary

Novick 47
Merkley 39


Headline: Obama looks to supers to crown him after clinching pledged delegate majority; Clinton receives another Pyrrhic victory as media shifts focus to general election

Posted by: jumpin_bob | May 20, 2008 6:55 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 69%
Obama 29%

Oregon:

Obama 59%
Clinton 42%

Oregon senate:

Novick 51
Merkley 49%

Posted by: ma | May 20, 2008 6:52 PM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton 64
Obama 36

OR
Obama 58
Clinton 42

Obama's fundraising numbers not as strong as expected but HRC in disastrous financial shape.

Or Sen
Novick 53
Merkley 47

Posted by: Jason T | May 20, 2008 6:51 PM | Report abuse

I mean Jesus Christ on a popsicle sick, Letch..
Your generation, the one that gave us "Turn On. Tune in. Drop Out, " and "Don't trust anyone over 30" should have seen straight though that Compassionate Conservative BS. You got suckered, but that's ok. You all have been a force for good in the country. Don't blow it now by getting all, "Get off my Lawn" on us when the house is falling owner and we show up with a repairman. Besides, you don't own the house. The Chinese do and your kids (us) are going to be paying them off.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 6:43 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton 65%
Obama 35%

Oregon
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

Oregon Dem Senate Primary
Merkley 52%
Novick 48%

Posted by: Jesse Curry | May 20, 2008 6:37 PM | Report abuse

I'll lecture you all I want. You're still showing your vast ignorance of generations. Only four years of Y could vote in 2004, but more importantly only ONE could vote in 2000. I can't guarantee we have the answers, leech, but you all have proven you don't, so stand aside.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 6:33 PM | Report abuse

KY

Clinton 63
other 8
Obama 29

3 seconds left on the clock, and clinton's behind by 30 points instead of 40. the harlem globetrotters ask her to join.


Oregon

Obama 61
clinton 39

Obama really wants to ask if she's still here, but fears being labled a sexist.

Novick: 57
Merkely 43

Obama coattails turns the oregon senate race into tester vs morrison redux. merkely vows to fight on, then remembers this isn't a presidential primary and preps for a gov run.

Posted by: taylor P | May 20, 2008 6:27 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:

BO: 57
HRC: 42

Kentucky:

BO: 36
HRC: 63

Story:

Obama wins a majority of pledged delegates and seals the deal.

Pundits will provide ad nauseum psychological diagnosis as to the precise nature of the Clinton dementia while continuing to inflate her false hopes of electoral success just so they can sell more books. Pundits repeat the line: "who in the DNC will put Hillary in the straight jacket?" The Fox News family go a step further and ask, "Does Hillary need electroshock or a lobotomy?"

Meanwhile, on Planet Hillary, Clinton campaign manager Howie Wolfson formulates yet another imaginary metric, the number of yellow pantsuits owned, under which Clinton is clearly victorious. Clinton releases campaign slogan number 3,167 in an attempt to shore up her last remaining demographic cohort, it states: "He's black, stupid".


Posted by: muaddib_7 | May 20, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:

Obama - 58%
Clinton - 42%

Kentucky:
Obama - 47%
Clinton - 53%

Obama wraps up majority of pledged delegates; Clinton seen as irrelevant despite KY win.

Oregon US Senate:
Novick - 48%
Merkley - 45%

Outsider defeats party pick for US Senate in Oregon.

Posted by: Sonya in Oregon | May 20, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

yea we served it up to you on s silver platter in 2004 to defeat W and your generation said no we don t have time so don't lecture us and our generation.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 6:20 PM | Report abuse

Oregon

Obama: 56
Clinton: 44

Kentucky

Clinton: 67
Obama: 33

Story-line: Obama desperately wants to declare victory in Des Moines but resists in favour of APPEASEMENT (for Clinton supporters.)

Posted by: Johnny Mac (Sydney) | May 20, 2008 6:08 PM | Report abuse

"to the anonymous poster who signed your post "DDAWD and his silver pladder",

I find it remarkably curious that you misspell 'platter' the same way that Leichtman does.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone else make that mistake."

No, it was me. I used that handle as a joke.

(didn't the content of the post make that obvious?)

Posted by: DDAWD | May 20, 2008 6:04 PM | Report abuse

Since my first "fix" shirt is eternally in the mail, I'll try for another (under a different monniker!)

KY: H 64%
O 35%

ORE H 47.5%
O 51.5%

The party pooh-bah's nerves will become even more frayed as they assess the stark reality that both of their candidates come with excess baggage at a time when even any baggage is becoming costly. Watch the super-d's start to sweat as Bill C. makes the stunning, but realistic, case that Obama is the wrong choice. Buyer's remorse is more and more evident, isn't it? But Bill could just as well let O dig his own grave with such outrageous comments as "Leave my wife alone." (Not quite exactly what he said, but pretty darn close.) For the record, I have no desire to do anything but leave his wife alone, he's the one who keeps throwing her out to me! Barack, if you and/or she can't stand the heat, then let her stay in the kitchen (you both look like you could use a good meal.)

Posted by: still waiting for my T | May 20, 2008 6:02 PM | Report abuse

Leechman:
You boomers and GenXers saddle us with W, his wars, his deficit, and the damage he has done to this country's image, and then and then you call US "entitled" because we're ticked at you for it? WTF is wrong with you? We thank you very much for the silver pladder [sic] that you gave us everything on, but now that we know you bought it on credit, we've got a problem. Y and X will be the ones who will be paying for your entitlements, and as such, you had best not be so dismissive if you know what's good for you. I'm not trying to change your mind. Everyone knows you can't teach an old (and you are old) dog new tricks. I'm telling you how it's going to be, and you can either get mad about it or you can accept it.

Regarding your work in 2004. It means nothing regarding my central premise: You boomers still caused this problem. Not us. Most of us (Gen Y: b. 1982-1997) couldn't vote in 2004 or 2000 (FYI - I did, both times, the first by absentee from Spain). Because of that, I fail to see how any of this probem could possibly be our fault. You gave us this mess, and stuck us with the clean up. Our ungratefulness twoards you is well warrented.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 5:48 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky Clinton 62 Obama 38

Oregon Clinton 43 Obama 67

Posted by: breskur | May 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 64%
Obama 32%

Oregon:

Obama 56%
Clinton 41%

Oregon senate:

Merkley 55%
Novick 45%

Headline:
"Clinton may have won another battle but the war is over, just don't tell that to her or Bill."

Posted by: ww | May 20, 2008 5:28 PM | Report abuse

to the anonymous poster who signed your post "DDAWD and his silver pladder",

I find it remarkably curious that you misspell 'platter' the same way that Leichtman does.

I don't think I've ever seen anyone else make that mistake.

Posted by: bsimon | May 20, 2008 5:27 PM | Report abuse

KY

Clinton 62
Obama 34
other 4

OR

Obama 53
Clinton 47

Clinton wins KY, but it's too little, too late.

Posted by: acasilaco | May 20, 2008 5:25 PM | Report abuse

OR: Obama:56.5 Clinton:43.5
KY: Clinton: 63 Obama: 37

OR senate primary: Novick: 50.7 Merkley: 47 Other: 2.3

Posted by: James R. | May 20, 2008 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Merkley - 46%
Novick - 49%

Posted by: Scott in PacNW | May 20, 2008 5:13 PM | Report abuse

obama 59
clinton 41

obama continues with the general election campaign full steam ahead despite hillary still being in the race.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 4:48 PM | Report abuse

"but my point was that to attribute comments from an Obama supporter to represent the views of Obama directly is as inane as taking racist comments made by a Hillary or anyone-else supporter and attributing them to that candidate."

Well, this guy is the king of taking extrapolation to ridiculous levels. To take one sexist comment and attributing it to Obama or even the typical Obama supporter.

It's almost as ridiculous as his self appointment as spokesperson of all Clinton backers.

Posted by: DDAWD and his silver pladder | May 20, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Oregon
Clinton: 39.9
Obama: 56.7

Kentucky
Clinton: 59
Obama: 31
Edwards: 9

Headline: Why did Obama blow off Kentucky?

Posted by: Neal Meyer | May 20, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton 68 %
Obama 32 %

Oregon
Clinton 46 %
Obama 54 %

Oregon Senate
Novick 48 %
Merkley 52 %

Posted by: Martin Tollén | May 20, 2008 4:27 PM | Report abuse

Obama will have a coronation in Iowa, but will be coquettish with respect to declaring himself "the nominee." The predicted state numbers:

KY
Clinton... 65
Obama..... 34

OR
Obama..... 57
Clinton... 42

Finally, for the main event:

OR Senate
Novick....45
Merkley...43
Neville...11

Fear the hook!

Posted by: Vasily Tolmachov | May 20, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Hey Leichtman - so long as the Clinton nomination strategy hinges on the sham metric of the popular vote, and padding that fraud with bogus election results from FL and MI, why don't you throw in Hillary's election numbers from her 2000 and 2006 campaigns while you're at it?

You can have Bubba's numbers from the 1992 and 1996 primaries too, if that helps.

Posted by: bondjedi | May 20, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

"Your vulgar language speaks volumes for your campaign's integrity and civility."

You call someone a prick and then try to claim the moral high ground ending on this note? Exactly which diploma mill gave you your law degree?

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman, simmer down (from 2:00-ish post). You nail the problem in your post. If you look more closely, I never called you a racist. I never called Hillary a racist. I may have typed too quickly, but my point was that to attribute comments from an Obama supporter to represent the views of Obama directly is as inane as taking racist comments made by a Hillary or anyone-else supporter and attributing them to that candidate. I am not debating that the Clintons did wonders for African Americans (and still do), though I do wish she had chosen some of her words more carefully in this campaign (the reference to hard-working white Americans comes to mind). So before you take all of your vitroil out on me, realize that you are proving the point so many are trying to make. I never called you a racist. I never called all of Hillary's supporters racists. I never called Hillary a racist. I just think it's ridiculous to say that the beliefs of a supporter are de facto the beliefs of the candidate and therefore let's let McCain be president and seriously screw up the country even more than it is.

Posted by: esmerelda123 | May 20, 2008 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
HRC - 62
Obama - 32

Oregon
HRC - 42
Obama - 56

Next day: Both claim victory - one from majority of votes cast (adding in Florida and Michigan) and one from majority of pledged delegates. All pundits try to figure out the math on who is right and put their Poli Sci degrees to the test.

Oregon Senate
Merkley - 52
Novick - 48

Next day: Obama's coat tails large enough for Merkley. Obama claims it will be the same for others in November.

Posted by: IowaShouldBeFirst | May 20, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

"Your supporters have made it absolutely clear: S Obama could care less if any HC supporters vote for him b/c he and his campaign don't need or want the 48% of D voters who opposed him"

Excuse me, the Obama campaign hasn't been the ones to try to claim that states they lost don't count, or that certain demographic groups are less important than others. Obama has specifically from day one talked about reaching out to all people and building a broad coalition on a 50-state strategy, not saying white working-class voters in PA and OH are the end-all-be-all to the election.

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman - You weren't so feisty when I was handing out lashings and pastings, and exposing the flaws and absurdities of the Clinton campaign positions you parroted. Where did you slink away to - Guam?

Go vote for McCain. Your generation has had its shot, and instead of looking to a new century you continue to wallow in the muck and sleaze of the Clinton 90s.

Note that on Sunday, while Clinton had trouble packing a few hundred people into a high school gym, Obama had 75,000+ on hand in Oregon. These millions of Clinton faithful that you hypothesize and profess to speak for simply do not exist.

I'll be thinking about you once Obama puts the last nail in the Clinton coffin tonight by clinching the delegate lead, and the world cracks open another can of whoop-ass on your discredited candidate and your moribund campaign of sleaze.

Posted by: bondjedi | May 20, 2008 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman writes
"You told us last week that you know exactly how HC supporters feel and that 90% of us will just line up behind your candidate."

Actually, Leichtman, you misremember what I wrote. What I said was that most HRC supporters are likely to eventually line up behind the Dem nominee - like Senator Clinton herself has promised to do. Senator Clinton is a Democrat and, as such, believes that Democrats working together to elect the Democratic Party nominee is far better for America's future than if some Democrats were to splinter off and support McCain.

Perhaps you disagree. I know I do - while I sympathize more with the Dems after the colossal mistakes made by the Republicans lately, I am not voting for the party, I am voting for the person.

Posted by: bsimon | May 20, 2008 4:13 PM | Report abuse

"because your generation which has ignored their civic responsibility now screams and stomps their feet in anger and wants to blame everyone but themselves."

Maybe they learned something from the Baby Boomers after all....

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 4:10 PM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton... 64
Obama..... 35

OR
Obama...55.3
Clinton 44.5

Obama secures pledged delegate majority, does not declare victory but implies it in his speech.

OR Senate
Merkley...44
Novick....41
Neville...11

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | May 20, 2008 4:02 PM | Report abuse

prick bsimon is that the kind of mature comment we are now used to, coming from you and your fellow supporters.
Oh we forgot bsimon. You told us last week that you know exactly how HC supporters feel and that 90% of us will just line up behind your candidate. Of course your civility sir does a lot to promote your predictions (or demands). I won't dignify your totally undignified rant.

Your supporters have made it absolutely clear: S Obama could care less if any HC supporters vote for him b/c he and his campaign don't need or want the 48% of D voters who opposed him or the 67% in W Va or the 60+% in Ky who reject him in Ky and in other primaries, to continue being Ds.
We get it bsimon. Your vulgar language speaks volumes for your campaign's integrity and civility.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 4:01 PM | Report abuse

Obama For President. The fulfillment of the Declaration of Independence, the Emancipation Proclamation, and Dr. King's Dream will finally be a reality after 232 years. "WE HOLD THESE TRUTHS TO BE SELF EVIDENT, THAT ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL"
God Bless This Great Nation!!. God Bless Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States!

Posted by: A.Lincoln | May 20, 2008 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 64
Obama 34

Oregon:
Obama 61
Clinton 38

Posted by: Gabriel N. Friedman | May 20, 2008 3:55 PM | Report abuse

I have to agree with Leichtman. Where were all the so-called young voters in 2004? If they were of voting age then and did not participate I think we can thank them for the four more years of Bush due to their apathy.

Posted by: AshokRoy | May 20, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

a lawyer who argues emotions instead of facts, who makes sweeping generalizations, who never has facts to support his conclusions, and whose anger and bitterness oozes like a sore from every one of his posts. Like many in our profession, your ego has propelled you into a fool's crusade with no takers.

You are a bully, a bigot, and a bore. Your 15 minutes have been over months ago.

I repeat what has been said here, you can vote for McCain or a third party. That is your right. But for someone who claims a legal background, everything you state as a way to twist this into a nomination for Clinton is an anathema to the constitution which you have sworn to uphold.

You are embarassing...

Posted by: Take your ball, Leitchman: | May 20, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman writes
"I am a 54 year old lawyer who thinks hearing you snide and arrogant insults by genY voters who think they know everything and are entitled to verything served up on a silver pladder, that you deserve absolutely everything this screwed up country and W has given you... Keep up your hateful aegist rants no one cares but maybe your campaign"

Leichtman, ageism works two ways. If you want some respect from the youth, quit being such a condescending prick. You may be 54 chronologically, but you're acting like you're 12.

Posted by: bsimon | May 20, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Oregon
53% Obama
47% Clinton

Kentucky
67% Clinton
31% Obama

"Clinton 'votes of working, hard working voters should count double.' Votes of simply working voters to remain unchanged."

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

mason I am a 54 year old lawyer who thinks hearing you snide and arrogant insults by genY voters who think they know everything and are entitled to verything served up on a silver pladder, that you deserve absolutely everything this screwed up country and W has given you. I spent 2 months in Denver at their Aurora campus and at Ohio State in 2004 warning your generation what would happen in 2004 and the same smart a** voters told me who cares we don't have time to vote its not impt. So don't lecture me or my generation with your problems child, because your generation which has ignored their civic responsibility now screams and stomps their feet in anger and wants to blame everyone but themselves.

Keep up your hateful aegist rants no one cares but maybe your campaign

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

OR: Obama 57, Clinton 42
KY: Clinton 62, Obama 31

Storyline: Split decision highlights divided democratic party (even) as Obama secures majority of pledged delegates.

Posted by: ndcohn | May 20, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Am I a useless, racist a$$? You will win a T-shirt if you vote YES!

Posted by: RahiqSyed | May 20, 2008 3:12 PM | Report abuse

Oregon

Barack Obama 60%
Hillary Clinton 38.8%

Kentucky

Hillary Clinton 62.9%
Barack Obama 33.3%

Some Hillary advisers are urging her to drop out so the party can start to unite for the General election.

Posted by: jr1886 | May 20, 2008 3:12 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 63.6%
Obama 34.4%
Other 2%

Oregon:
Obama 57.3%
Clinton 41.8%

Novick 52%
Merkley 47%

Headline: Obama Captures the Majority of Pledged Delegates to Become the All but Certain Democratic Nominee.

Hillary Clinton will take this fight to Puerto Rico. Some retarded number of white working-class voters in Kentucky will cite race as an important factor in their decision. Those of us unfortunate enough not to live in Kentucky or West Virginia will not be surprised at all. The more "thoughtful" voters will echo their neighbors in West Virginia: "I hate the Hussein thing! I hate the Muslim thing! I hate the black thing!"
Meanwhile, Barack Obama will win this nomination and the presidency, despite the latent and or blatant racism of Appalachia, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck and their apologists.
Obama '08: This is going to happen.


New York City Secession 2010

Posted by: legan00@ccny.cuny.edu | May 20, 2008 3:10 PM | Report abuse

Oregon

Barack Obama 60%
Hillary Clinton 38.8%

Kentucky

Hillary Clinton 62.9%
Barack Obama 33.3%

Some Hillary advisers are urging her to drop out so the party can start to unite for the General election.

Posted by: jr1886 | May 20, 2008 3:07 PM | Report abuse

Do you think Shaniqua Michelle Obama has a weave? She looks rather amazonian...

Posted by: RahiqSyed | May 20, 2008 3:01 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:

Obama 58
Clinton 42

Oregon Senate:

Novick 43
Merkley 40
Neville 15
Other 2

Kentucky:

Clinton 62
Obama 29
Edwards 5
Other 4

Storyline:
Oregon, "the other white state," puts Obama over the top.

Posted by: Chuck | May 20, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky

Clinton: 62
Obama: 32
Other: 5

Oregon

Clinton: 40
Obama: 57
Other: 3

Obama wins a majority amongst elected delegates, Clinton vows to stay in through the remaining contests in June and "until the Michigan and Florida delegations are seated at the convention". Obama's larger-than-expected margin of victory in Oregon, however, increases the daily flow of superdelegates over the next few days.

Posted by: mschmidt73 | May 20, 2008 2:56 PM | Report abuse

Afterall, he is clean and articualte.

Posted by: NadeemZakaria

"After all, he is clean and articulate."

if you are going to be sarcastic, write with intelligence and clarity...

Posted by: English 101 | May 20, 2008 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Novick 51
Merekely 49

Posted by: MRassam | May 20, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

I think Obama will sweep. Afterall, he is clean and articualte.

Posted by: NadeemZakaria | May 20, 2008 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 63%
Obama 32%

Oregon:

Obama 61%
Clinton 38%

Headline:

Obama claims majority in pledge delegates and within 100 for magic number. Clinton fights on.....

Posted by: supradeep narayana | May 20, 2008 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Obama-Biden 2008!

Posted by: Crudup | May 20, 2008 2:39 PM | Report abuse

Keep it up I am sure that the O campaign is proud of the nasty comments coming from the mouths of their genY supporters here.
Leichtman
===========

Shove it, Old Man. You're generation created this mess, and you're damn right you're going to have to listen to us gripe about it. If you're smart, you'll keep your trap shut and not tick us off any further, lest we decide to cut off your Social Security or Medicare. We have time to save for our golden years. You don't.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

OREGON
Obama - 58%
Clinton - 40%

KENTUCKY
Clinton - 61%
Obama - 38%

Posted by: Tom | May 20, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

OREGON
Obama - 58%
Clinton - 40%

KENTUCKY
Clinton - 61%
Obama - 38%

Posted by: Tom | May 20, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton 64.5%
Obama 33%
Other 2.5%

Oregon
Obama 56.0%
Clinton 42.0%
Other 2.0%

Oregon
Merkley 45.2%
Novick 46.9%
Neville 4.9%
Other 3%

Storylines:

Election Evening: Obama still in trouble with white working class - but more so in Appalachia than elsewhere -- what's different there?

Next Morning: Obama passes the threshold, more Clintonistas abandon ship (Altman, Doyle, etc.)

Posted by: bcamarda | May 20, 2008 2:37 PM | Report abuse

I registered twenty voters last week. I think we'll do ok.

Posted by: DDAWD
********************************
Very cool...doing instead of waving fists and threatening. No wonder the nomination is near. Good work!

Posted by: Obama '08 | May 20, 2008 2:35 PM | Report abuse

great DDawg: 65 HC from my cpt. were in my home last week waiting to hear your message for them to get lost; way to go I am sure many of them will appreciate your sentiments.

Now if you can set up booths like I have done at grocery stores and knocking on doors in the barrios you can register some real numbers of voters. We used to register more voters then that in an hour but if your side continues to p.o. millions of HC supporters which apparently you and your friends think is cute, you may need another million friends to help you with voter registration. Keep it up I am sure that the O campaign is proud of the nasty comments coming from the mouths of their genY supporters here.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton 58, Obama 42
OR: Obama 53, Clinton 45

Headline: Obama claims victory, Clinton concedes nothing.

Posted by: jfb | May 20, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

KY:
Obama 32%
Clinton 62%
Other 6%

OR:

Obama 56%
Clinton 42%
Other 2%

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

not until I hear Sen O publicly tell his children supporters to shut up and stop being divisive.

Likelihood of that happening? Zero

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008
*******************************
that likelihood is higher than the one of you ever being that important to merit an apology. Here's your ball...

Posted by: Teacher! Leichtman is bothering me!!! | May 20, 2008 2:25 PM | Report abuse

"Why do you attribute such comments solely to the Obama camp instead of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy? Perhaps you should consider which group has more to gain by annoying Clinton supporters."

simple: it was David Axelrod who repeated the Drudge story on Morning Joe, Keith Olberman, and Hardball for days. You think maybe they thought it would be a winner for them?
From the campaign that promised New Politics.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse

"Keep it up creeps and you won't find a HC supporter voting for your candidate in Nov."

Ok, ok, we get it! You aren't voting for Obama.

You keep saying you're going to take your ball and go home. Now will you plase take your ball and go home?

I registered twenty voters last week. I think we'll do ok.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 20, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton 59% Obama 41%
OR: Obama 55% Clinton 45%

"Clinton wins big in KY, but Obama now has majority of elected delegates." Clinton claims race not over yet, but math suggests otherwise. Only a superdelegate or FL/MI miracle could give Clinton the nomination. With his lead in elected delegates, superdelegates will continue to break for Obama until he is the undisputed nominee.
###
[End of story]

Posted by: Grace | May 20, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 44%

Kentucky:

Obama: 35%
Clinton: 55%

I need 2X t-sheet.

Thanks!

Posted by: Gloria | May 20, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:

Obama- 61
Clinton- 39

Kentucky
Clinton- 64
Obama-36

OR Senate
Novick- 53
Merkley-47

Finish line in site as Obama claims a majority of pledged delgates.

Posted by: Payrod | May 20, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman; Will you vote for Obama for one....million...dollars?

not until I hear Sen O publicly tell his children supporters to shut up and stop being divisive.

Likelihood of that happening? Zero

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman writes
"Keep it up creeps and you won't find a HC supporter voting for your candidate in Nov. See how far you go with 18 million fewer votes."

Why do you attribute such comments solely to the Obama camp instead of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy? Perhaps you should consider which group has more to gain by annoying Clinton supporters.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

In tonight's news: Leitchman will not be voting for Obama...in the weather, another sunny/rainy/cold/hot day...in sports, some team will be playing another team and one of those teams will win some game...

Posted by: Yawn... | May 20, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

KY HRC 66 BHO 30

OR HRC 43 BHO 56

OR Novick 51 Merkley 49

Hil stays, loans herself more dough...slowly is the forgotten and scorned woman.

Novick bucks the party establishment.

Posted by: WOW | May 20, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

kruez maybe you and some of the other O worshippers should have thought about that since many of you have spent months totally trashing every HC supporter that has wasted their time here with the children here. Calling us and our candidate evil, old, dinosaurs, withered, w*****. I can already hear the whining starting here. If we lose in Nov it is the evil woman HC that caused it. Its already started.
Don't blame me I didn't vote for him.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 2:16 PM | Report abuse

"Keep it up creeps and you won't find a HC supporter voting for your candidate in Nov. See how far you go with 18 million fewer votes."

And see how much better off you are with President McCain...

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman; Will you vote for Obama for one....million...dollars? (dramatic music)

Posted by: Leitchtman:Dr. Evil called..I make the empty threats not you! | May 20, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Eat More Meat

Posted by: eat meat | May 20, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

I see the Children are back pasting HC supporters names on their own idiotic posts.

Keep it up creeps and you won't find a HC supporter voting for your candidate in Nov. See how far you go with 18 million fewer votes.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:

Obama 55
Clinton 42
Kucinich 2
Edwards 1

Oregon Senate:

Novick 47
Merkley 45
Neville 6

Kentucky:

Clinton 57
Obama 39
Edwards 4

Storyline:
Symbolism of Iowa and Oregon as bookends and their importance in the fall as general election states.

Posted by: Tim, Portland | May 20, 2008 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Chris: I am sorry that I did not originally put my name with this, I want a Fix tee shirt too!

OR:
BHO 58.4
HRC 41.1

KY:
HRC 64.5
BHO 32.2
JE 1.9

Storyline: Barak claims OR victory, urges Dems to unite. Hillary gets KY, says not so fast. The race goes on, but the finish line is in sight.

Originally Posted by: | May 20, 2008 1:31 PM

Posted by: smartinsen | May 20, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

If it doesn't stop immediately don't hold your breath expecting many of us to support your candidate.

Posted by: Leichtman
******************************
I bet dogs are circling your house now with all the high-pitched wailing. Maybe you should take some of your own advice...

Posted by: stop the madness... | May 20, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 64, Obama 30, Other 6

Oregon: Clinton 46, Obama 52, Other 2

Story: Obama claims pledged delegate lead as all eyes fall on the rules committee to finally resolve Florida and Michigan.

Oregon Sen (D): Novick 50.3, Merkley 49.7

Posted by: crodolfa | May 20, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: 58C, 36O, 6E
Inevitability, Louisville and Edwards Dampen Clinton's Expectations!

Oregon: 57O, 43C
The Ref Steps in and Calls the Fight!

Posted by: Michael A. | May 20, 2008 2:05 PM | Report abuse

"Sexist hatefilled comments continue from Obama supporters yelling that these women must support their guy"

Hey, if you choose not to support the nominee of the party, that's completely your call. Personally, the thought of my son coming home in a body bag from fighting a war that should never have been authorized or wadged, the continued decline of the US economy under misguided Republican economic policies undermining our prosperity and our defense, and the prospect of the supreme court denying my daughter the right to control her own body will do much more to guide my vote this fall than will sour grapes because my candidate lost on every metric. It's not about sexism from my perspective, but it sure seems to be for some people, and they're only harming their own cause (in nearly every way imaginable, too).

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

"Disgusting comments like that should not be attributed to Obama anymore than the racist comments about Obama should be attributed to Hillary" more garbage

The racists comments you refer to were made by O supporters here over the last 2 months. Hateful racists comments were deliberately posted here and signed in with HC supporters' names I know it happened to me several times and with numerous othet HC supporters names falsely signed in and only stopped when I called the WPost Administrator for this site and they instructed those practices to stop.

Until I hear a retraction from Sen O personally that he rejects his campaign and supporter's deliberate spreading that HC, Bill and Geraldine Ferraro and their supporters are racists like you continue to promote, don't expect many of us to come to your support. Right saying that Lyndon Johnson along with MLK was responsible for the voting rights and open housing act makes Bill and HC racists. The spreading of the photos of O in native garb was spread by by Matt Drudge on utube and then talked about for days by Axelrod and your campaign but no one bothered to mention that either.

Bill and HC Clinton personal friends of Coretta King, having his office in Harlem, and doing more to drive down AA poverty in 8 years then any modern president makes them and their supporters racist. Enough already with that garbage, the only thing I care about right now is Teddy's beating back brain cancer, a tad more important then some of the idiotic and hatefilled posts here that O supporters generally refuse to distance themselves from.

If the O campaign intends to attract HC supporters they should start by absolutely renouncing his campaign and supporters referring to us as racists. If it doesn't stop immediately don't hold your breath expecting many of us to support your candidate.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky superdelegates proclaim we don't care that our candidate just got crushed, s**** the Ky voters democracy wins when we ignore our state's sentiments.

35% of Ky D voters in exit polls proclaim they will never support B.O.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 12:55 PM

***************************
dontcha love my spring outfit? It is from the "Bitter" line of Cut-your-own-nose-off-to-spite-your-face store.

Posted by: Letchtman | May 20, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

I have no predictions, but my panties are in a wad about Obama supporters. How dare they?!!

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 1:59 PM | Report abuse

"YES A CALL FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
"...
"Florida and Michigan have the CONSTITUTIONAL POWER to set the rules for their own elections. The Constitution does not give the parties the right to set the rules for elections, nor does the Constitution give the parties power to select Nevada and South Carolina to hold elections before Florida and Michigan.
"...
"In the interests of fairness, Obama has only himself to blame for actively attempting to PREVENT re-vote in Florida and Michigan. Obama has sought to take advantage of this issue, and has not lended any help in solving this issue.
Quite to the contrary, there has been an active campaign by the Obama people to PREVENT the re-votes and STOP the voters of Florida and Michigan from counting in the Democratic nomination process.
Obama has taken this course because his lead looks much stronger without Florida and Michigan delegates - little help to the right to vote or to democracy itself.

SANCTIONS AGAINST THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 20, 2008 8:16 AM

___________________________________
Off thread, I know, and I apologize.

Previous poster stated the above.
But I've heard these types of arguments for these last many months, and I'm dubious about such assertions. Not being a lawyer, I admit I'm in the dark, but isn't the writer above making a fundamental mistake in his terminology, which may be indicative of a misunderstanding of the laws governing such things?
The poster (and others like him/her) refer to the primary "elections" of these states. But these are "selections," by private organizations, of their nominees for the office. As such, do not the rules of said PRIVATE organization govern how to select a NOMINEE (NOT an OFFICE HOLDER), and take precedence?
Yes, "Florida and Michigan have the CONSTITUTIONAL POWER to set the rules for their own elections." Except that this is not a general election.
Rather, this is a private club, choosing its members, board, chair, whatever, in accordance with its own internal rules. Private clubs and organizations, like Augusta National Golf Club, set their own rules (about female membership, for instance, however troglodyte those rules may be), and they seem to have withstood legal scrutiny. The Democratic and Republican parties are not state entities; they may be accredited within a state, but are not government organizations or functions. Does the state have any right to interfere in internal process? Is a political party under any obligation to conform to a legislature's dictates?

Do we have any election lawyers in the crowd who might shed some light?

And incidentally, why is it you folks who make this argument are so eager for this? Because you think it gives HRC an advantage? Is that it? Are you an HRC supporter, or a Republican? Because this looks like a desperate attempt by Republicans to help her, so you can run against her, against someone you think you can beat (having already been running against her for 16 years now).

Posted by: Just wondering | May 20, 2008 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 61
Obama 33

Oregon:

Obama 58
Clinton 46

Headline(s)/storylines:

- Clinton vows to stay in the race until she's the nominee.

- Howard Dean and the most powerful of the declared Obama Super Delegates to meet.

- Unreported story until several days from now:

Dean (and those powerful declared Super Delegates mentioned above) meet to tell Clinton to withdraw now and that if she doesn't, the Super Delegates have all pledged to publicly support Obama. Clinton is furious and makes absurd efforts to overthrough DNC rules. She makes such a fool of herself, Bill tells her it's time to quit because her Senatorial seat will be at risk unless she clearly demonstrates she's behind the party and not actually going insane.

Posted by: Robin S. | May 20, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Maybe they should not even be allowed to vote if that is the depth of their intellect. They will vote against their own best interest just for spite.

))))))))))))
Sexist hatefilled comments continue from Obama supporters yelling that these women must support their guy and are shocked when they tell the Obama campaign that such comments are pushing them out of the D party. O supporters continue to show their disrespect for women and wonder why they won't support their guy.

headlines: Clinton "Feminists" continue to wail and knash teeth! Obama is the presumptive nominee! McCain no closer to figuring out the country he wants to bomb!

Posted by: are we there yet? | May 20, 2008 12:19 PM

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 1:21 PM

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton: 59
Obama: 36

OR
Clinton: 38
Obama: 61

Novick: 48
Merkley: 41

Posted by: Greg A | May 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

"First, the state legislature is sovereign, why in the world do they have to listen to a political party"

They don't. They chose to listen to both of them, against the will of the national parties who got to set the rules on how to count the votes. Primary elections are not found anywhere in the federal Constitution, nor are poltical parties. Political Parties spring from the 1st Amendment guarantee of free association, and are free to nominate whomever they choose however they choose. This is why some states have caucuses, some have primaries, some have both, and some have a different system for the different parties (Iowa Republican caucuses are very different from Iowa Deomcratic caucuses). Just because the state chooses to foot the bill for the party's nominating process doesn't mean that it gives the results of those contests any more weight. All that matters is what the national party chooses to do with those results (note that many states use an early caucus to determine the delegation but still have a primary later on that is essentially meaningless, such as WA and NE).

"Second, taxpayer funds are involved - the parties are essentially ordering a state how it should spend its money"

No, again, the states are free to hold whatever elections they want whenever they want. A more effective protest might have been for FL and MI to refuse to pay for any election held after 1 Feb, thereby penalizing the parties for their rules.


"Third, because taxpayer money is involved, Constitutional protections of equal protection should apply"

Equal protection must apply to the state's handling of voters and the ballots themselves, but the 14th Amendment is only binding on government entities, not private entities such as the political parties.

"Fourth, the Voting Rights of the Citizens should prevail over any other interests - such voting rights are incorporated into the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments."

The fifth amendment guarantees due process in criminal cases, reread the constitution on that one. Second, it doesn't guarantee it is held over all other interests, and again, finally, it has no standing over the political parties and what they choose to do with the results. The First Amendment overrides all others in that regard.

"Fifth, the Voters are essentially innocent bystanders in the dispute between Harry Reid of Nevada and Carl Levin of Michigan - Basically, a penalty is being assessed to the Voters if the Legislature does not grant its authority over elections to the parties."

This is a republic, not a democracy, those Florida legislators are elected by the people of Florida to act on their behalf, and are therefore accountable to them. Furthermore, by your logic, closed primaries are unconstitutional because they exclude individuals from their right to vote based on party identification. This is the essence of the primary and the whole process- it is a process for the party to select its nominee to run in the general. Some parties choose to open up the process, some choose to restrict it to their own members; some choose to vote by caucus, some by primary. The parties are free to determine their own mechanisms for determining a nominee by whatever standard they set, be it choosing to go along with a state sponsored primary election ro conducting a separate event. In any case, they get final say over the rules, the Constitution is abundantly clear on that.

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Leichtman, I agree with you, but hate the supporter, not the candidate. If Obama becomes the nominee, that is still the only chance we have of preventing a continuation of Bush Syndrome. Disgusting comments like that should not be attributed to Obama anymore than the racist comments about Obama should be attributed to Hillary -- or any other kind of comment by someone ignorant should be attributed to their supposed candidate, since ignorance comes in all forms on a variety of issues (not just race and gender).

Posted by: esmerelda123 | May 20, 2008 1:34 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 59.9
Obama 33.1

Oregon: Obama 56.1
Clinton 41.6

Please let this split be the end of Hillary's campaign? I know, I know, I think she'll run for the Green Party once Barack Obama's the nominee.

Posted by: Neal | May 20, 2008 1:34 PM | Report abuse

Prediction OR Hillary 42% Obama 58%
Delegates 35-15

KY Hillary 68% Obama 31%
Delegates 22-30

TOTAL 57-45

Net gain of 12 for Hillary, but 45 more committed delegates for Obama plus supers will put him over the top.

Posted by: FrankM | May 20, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

OR:
BHO 58.4
HRC 41.1

KY:
HRC 64.5
BHO 32.2
JE 1.9

Storyline: Barak claims OR victory, urges Dems to unite. Hillary gets KY, says not so fast. The race goes on, but the finish line is in sight.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

Another absolutely disgusting comment from an O supporter. Wonder why HC supporters vow never to support Sen O? Just read this Garbage coming from your hatefilled supporters.

posted by O anonymous supporter: "With the announcement that Kennedy has a brain tumor I bet Hillary is on the phone right now wanting his job as she hopes for him to die. She has been wishing Obama dead (her only chance) so she could win and it looks like he is going to survive so now she has a second chance to better herself."

Posted by: | May 20, 2008 1:11 PM

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 1:25 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 64 √
Obama 31
Edwards 5

Oregon:
Obama 55 √
Clinton 43
Gravel 2

Novick 42 √
Merkley 36
The Field 22

Obama Finally "Wins!"; Clinton Fights On!

Posted by: Nor'Easter | May 20, 2008 1:25 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Obama 41
Clinton 59

Lunsford 45
Fischer 47

Oregon
Obama 58
Clinton 42

Merkley 48
Novick 44

Posted by: Austin Redmon | May 20, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Prediction OR Hillary 42% Obama 58%

KY Hillary 68% Obama 31%

Just guessing Hillary's supporters are slightly less likely to vote.

Posted by: FrankM | May 20, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

37thandO, I am sorry, but you are not correct.

Michigan and Florida are where they are because their *elected* state leaders made a bad decision and now do not want to deal with the consequences. The voters of those states chose leaders who decided to defy party rules and butt themselves ahead of all the other states on the calendar and hold their primaries in January. WHY on EARTH should they now be seated? What does that say about the importance of rules in a democracy to be fair to ALL citizens? The ONLY reason Michigan and Florida are in this state are because of THEIR OWN LEADERS, not Obama. Hillary herself said the elections in those states did not matter -- at least, until she realized she would lose without them. For voters in those states to now cry "disenfranchisement" is disingenuous at best. Where was their outrage when the leaders wanted to break the rules and move their primaries ahead -- all to give them MORE importance in the election? And remember these same leaders went to the DNC meeting and AGREED TO ABIDE BY THESE RULES. If we start changing the rules in the middle of the process and say it's a-okay, then the entire voting system is undermined and elections lose all their credibility. I for one do not want to live in a democracy where the rules can be broken, people whine about it, then get their way at the disadvantage of the people who actually follow the laws. This is not a constitutional issue whatsoever, besides the fact that everyone in those states will still be voting in the general. People who go against the rules they agree to should accept the consequences--isn't that the bedrock of living in a democratic society?

Posted by: esmerelda123 | May 20, 2008 1:23 PM | Report abuse

Sexist hatefilled comments continue from Obama supporters yelling that these women must support their guy and are shocked when they tell the Obama campaign that such comments are pushing them out of the D party. O supporters continue to show their disrespect for women and wonder why they won't support their guy.

headlines: Clinton "Feminists" continue to wail and knash teeth! Obama is the presumptive nominee! McCain no closer to figuring out the country he wants to bomb!

Posted by: are we there yet? | May 20, 2008 12:19 PM

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

With the announcement that Kennedy has a brain tumor I bet Hillary is on the phone right now wanting his job as she hopes for him to die. She has been wishing Obama dead (her only chance) so she could win and it looks like he is going to survive so now she has a second chance to better herself.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky Primary--BLOW-OUT Clinton Win.

CLINTON--69%
Obama --31%

Oregon Primary--Obama in a Landslide.

OBAMA--62%
Clinton-38%


KY Elected Delegate Totals:

CLINTON--32 Delegates
Obama --19 Delegates

Oregon Elected Delegate Totals:

OBAMA--32 Delegates
Clinton--20 Delegates

Net Result: Clinton, Obama trade landslide wins. Clinton nets ONE DELEGATE gain relative to Obama tonight. (Needless to say, not nearly good enough.) Obama clinches Elected ("Pledged") Delegate majority (1627 Delegates) tonight, and effectively clinches the nomination since "Supers" will NEVER overturn the verdict of the Elected ("Pledged") Delegates.

Clinton continues to hang around for another 2-3 weeks to harvest the laurels of victory in Puerto Rico on June 1, RAISE MONEY, contest Florida and Michigan delegates at Democratic Delegate Credentials Committee Meeting on May 31. All to no avail.

Democratic Convention Chair Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic party elders broker a deal by mid-June that eases Clinton out of the race, and gets Obama camp to help pay down Clinton's campaign debt in return for her endorsement of the nominee--Obama.

Effectively, GAME OVER after tonight in the nomination phase. On to the Main Event in November--Obama vs. McCain.

No Hillary on the bottom of the ticket. (Obama hasn't made up his mind yet WHO to put in the VP slot yet.)

Here are some interesting possibilities, however: Sam Nunn of Georgia--Might be able to deliver a big Southern state (GA) and influence others (North Carolina?) because of his strong military background. Would also "toughen up" Obama's image on National Security for the fall. Downside: Very dull, boring guy. About as sexy and exciting as reading the full text of last year's Defense Authorization bill.

John Edwards--pros and cons of this choice are too obvious to belabor. I don't think Obama will pick him for the VP slot, however. (Maybe for Attorney General, though.)

Colin Powell--I know, I know...he's a Republican. But Powell, just might do it, and if Powell went for it, his choice would be a real game breaker. Socially liberal, but strong National Security credentials. Would reassure nervous Whites in the center who might be swayed to Obama. Would vindicate Obama's claim to be a "Unifier" who can reach across Party lines.

McCain's VP pick--Senator Joe Lieberman.

November Election Results:

Obama--55%
McCain-44%

Obama wins the national popular vote AND the Electoral College vote.

President-Elect Barack Obama sworn in as 44th President of the United States on January 20, 2009.

Posted by: Cosimo de' Medici | May 20, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

12:30 p.m. post

"First - Nonsense.

Second - Wrong.

Third - Garbage.

Fourth - Gibberish.

Fifth - Insane ranting.

Overall, I am talking like an expert about things I know absolutely nothing about.

They say that if you are sitting at a poker table and can not find the fool, the fool is probably you. Does the same hold in The Fix? I am having a hard time telling who the fools are in here."

Posted by: 37th&OStreet Translator | May 20, 2008 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Oregon
Obama 60
Hillary 40

KY
Hillary 62
Obama 37

Merkley 47%
Novick 44%

Obama: Mission accomplished.

Posted by: fourhourelection@yahoo.com | May 20, 2008 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Hilary: 68.2
Obama: 31.7

Oregon: Obama: 59.0
Hiary: 41.0

Posted by: Henry Vu | May 20, 2008 1:02 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky - Clinton - 63
Obama - 34
Oregon Obama - 56
Clinton - 42
Story line - The Last Hurrah

BTW since the McCain gaga media is not covering it, I will also predict that once again 25% of Republicans will go to considerable trouble to vpte AGAINST John McCain.

Posted by: Pragmatist | May 20, 2008 1:02 PM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 63
Obama 36

OR:
Obama 53
Clinton 46

"Its Over! Mostly"

Novick 66
Merkely 33


Posted by: babar1 | May 20, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Dose it matter. Hillary's fantasy campaign.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 12:59 PM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 68
Obama 32

Oregon
clinton 49
obama 48

Uh-OH: what's next for new race

Posted by: rob | May 20, 2008 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 63.4, Obama 32.4, Edwards 3.9, Other 0.3

Oregon: Obama 55.7, Clinton 42.8, Edwards 1.1, Kucinich 0.4

Storyline: Somewhere along the line somebody has to eventually pick up on the storyline that the Democratic Party has relied upon the FDR's new deal voters, Truman/Johnson's African American Shift, and JFK's New Frontier voters. And since the greatest generation is dying off, somewhere, sometime soon, the new voters that Obama is bringing in will matter more to the future of the party than Clinton's reliance on previous voting blocks. So maybe Oregon will give Obama this chance.

Also, at some point someone will note that if the Obama were the 61 year old and Clinton the 48 year old, they'd be different enough people that Clinton would be winning as the white woman. (Think Obama being more like Rev. Wright and Hillary not allowing herself to break the glass ceiling by being someone's wife). The key shift was that during the 1970s Title IX brought women into sports and the Ivy League started allowing women into its hallowed halls.

Can Obama find a post 70s woman governor to serve as his V.P.? If he does, he wins the general election.

Posted by: Rich Oldrieve | May 20, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 63.4, Obama 32.4, Edwards 3.9, Other 0.3

Oregon: Obama 55.7, Clinton 42.8, Edwards 1.1, Kucinich 0.4

Storyline: Somewhere along the line somebody has to eventually pick up on the storyline that the Democratic Party has relied upon the FDR's new deal voters, Truman/Johnson's African American Shift, and JFK's New Frontier voters. And since the greatest generation is dying off, somewhere, sometime soon, the new voters that Obama is bringing in will matter more to the future of the party than Clinton's reliance on previous voting blocks. So maybe Oregon will give Obama this chance.

Also, at some point someone will note that if the Obama were the 61 year old and Clinton the 48 year old, they'd be different enough people that Clinton would be winning as the white woman. The key shift was that during the 1970s Title IX brought women into sports and the Ivy League started allowing women into its hallowed halls.

Can Obama find a post 70s woman governor to serve as his V.P.? If he does, he wins the general election.

Posted by: Rich Oldrieve | May 20, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky Results:

Clinton: 57.4%
Obama: 34.6%
Edwards: 6%

Oregon:

Obama: 59.4%
Clinton: 40.5%

Oregon Senate:

Novick: 46.3%
Merkely: 40.5%

"Obama comes within 25% in Kentucky, as a large vote for Edwards drags Clinton's percentage down. A big win in Oregon coupled with a huge turnout gives Obama more votes than Clinton for the night. Superdelegates continue their trickle for Obama; Clinton struggles to stay in the news for the next two weeks. Meanwhile, Oregon moves itself to the 'likely Dem' category for November."

"Chuck Schumer suffers a rare embarassment as his chosen candidate loses to an activist who wins on a huge turnout for Obama. Youtube crashes as millions watch Novick open a beer with his hook; Schumer, not to be upstaged (and to endorse Novick), decides to hold a two-hour press conference where he will do nothing but open a beer, drink it, and talk about absolutely nothing, wasting valuable talking head time on the Cable networks."

Posted by: CTman | May 20, 2008 12:56 PM | Report abuse

Ky: HC 66.4%
BO 32.6

Oregon: HC 41%
BO 58%

Kentucky superdelegates proclaim we don't care that our candidate just got crushed, s**** the Ky voters democracy wins when we ignore our state's sentiments.

35% of Ky D voters in exit polls proclaim they will never support B.O.

Posted by: Leichtman | May 20, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky - Clinton 62% Obama 38%
Oregon - Clinton 45% Obama 55%
Storyline - Obama takes the lead in pledged delegates. Each maintains his or her demographics. No swipes at each other. Nothing has changed.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 20, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Hillary: 65.8%
Obama: 34.2%

Oregon:

Obama: 57.8%
Hillary: 42.2%

Posted by: Russell in New York | May 20, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 58.1%
Obama 40.6%

Oregon:
Obama 56.7%
Clinton 41.5%

Washington:
Novick 50.5%
Merkley 47.3%

Headlines:
Obama Looks Forward, While Clinton Vows To Finish The Fight

Novick Triumphs Despite Merkley's DSCC-backing

Posted by: Mat W. | May 20, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Susan Rice, Barack Obama's foreign policy advisor, is at it again. She is on a mission to save Obama from himself, insisting that he never promised to meet with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad-and that he never said without preconditions.

The bizarre additional explanation this time is that it was some other unnamed leader of Iran he may have had in mind for a get together. Two problems :1) it is a lie and 2) huh?

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/7031

Posted by: jennifer | May 20, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 63
Obama 35

OR:
Obama 54
Clinton 45

"Large group of Superdelegates Declare their support for Obama, as Clinton vows to fight for Florida and Michigan."

Novick 69
Merkely 30

Posted by: myhojda | May 20, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton-63
Obama 30

Oregon
Obama-57
Clinton-40

Oregon Democratic Senate Primary
Novick-40
Merkley-35

Storyline-The race for the Democratic Primary is over, a landslide of super-delegates to follow.

Posted by: James McLeod | May 20, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

KY Clinton 67 Obama 32
OR Obama 58 Clinton 42
Or-Sen Novick 49 Merkely 46

Posted by: mahimahi1414 | May 20, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:
Obama 57.4 Clinton 42.6
Kentucky:
Clinton 59.8 Obama 40.2

Tomorrow's story:
It's all over but the shouting. Will someone PLEASE shout her down already?

Posted by: Fil | May 20, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 66.2%
Obama 33.8%

Oregon:
Obama 52%
Clinton 48%

Obama will claim the Democratic Nomination tonight, and the Presidency on Memorial Day. Then he will go on vacation, "allowing" the primaries, and general election to continue their slow, boring process. Meanwhile he will be surfing in Hawaii, sending his bare-chested pictures for the reporters to swoon over, and Chris Matthews to fell the chill up his legs.

Posted by: Krishna | May 20, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

It would be hard to think of a more ridiculous way to make decisions than to transfer those decisions to third parties who pay no price for being wrong. Yet that is what at least half of the bright ideas of the political left amount to.

Posted by: thomas S. | May 20, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

If Barack Obama had given a speech on bowling, it might well have been brilliant and inspiring. But instead he actually tried bowling and threw a gutter ball. The contrast between talking and doing could not have been better illustrated.

Posted by: thomas S. | May 20, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Novick 53.5%
Merkley 45.5%

Posted by: Myles | May 20, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Response to smerelda123


First, the state legislature is sovereign, why in the world do they have to listen to a political party


Second, taxpayer funds are involved - the parties are essentially ordering a state how it should spend its money


Third, because taxpayer money is involved, Constitutional protections of equal protection should apply


Fourth, the Voting Rights of the Citizens should prevail over any other interests - such voting rights are incorporated into the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments.


Again, I challenge the right of the party to be able to choose one state over another , in this case to select Nevada and South Carolina over Florida and Michigan


Again I challenge the right of the party to enforce it


Fifth, the Voters are essentially innocent bystanders in the dispute between Harry Reid of Nevada and Carl Levin of Michigan -

Basically, a penalty is being assessed to the Voters if the Legislature does not grant its authority over elections to the parties.


OK there you go

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 20, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 64, Obama 28
Oregon: Obama 54, Clinton 44

Story: "Rush of Superdelegates pledge to Obama seeking to end race"

Posted by: Richard Lampe | May 20, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton - 67%
Obama - 31%

Oregon
Obama - 57%
Clinton - 41%

Posted by: ElephantInTheRoom | May 20, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton 62.4
Obama 37.6

OR
Obama 56.6
Clinton 43.4

OR Senate
Novick 51.5
Merkley 48.5

Headline: Obama uses his speech to continue his slug fest with McCain and Bush over foreign policy, rather than explicitly declaring victory.

Posted by: Mike | May 20, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 63
Obama 37

Oregon:
Obama 58
Clinton 42

Senate:
Merkley 52
Novick 48

Clinton says she will stay until the convention. Obama ignores her and focuses on McCain.

Posted by: tico | May 20, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Novick 53.5%

Merkley 45.5%

Posted by: Duffdog | May 20, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

HRC - 64
BHO - 30
JRE - 6

Oregon:

HRC - 42
BHO - 58

Obama now has majority of pledged delegates; HRC looks to May 31 Rules Committee hearing for hope

Posted by: Frank | May 20, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky

Clinton - 64%
Obama - 36%

Oregon

Clinton - 42%
Obama - 58%

Novick - 52%
Merckley - 48%

Storyline - Obama gains majority of pledged delegates; despite second big win in a week, Clinton's chances of winning the nomination are virtually impossible.

Posted by: CWinTX78 | May 20, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton: 60%
Obama: 40%

Ore: Obama: 60%
Clinton: 40%

headlines: Clinton Feminists continue to wail and knash teeth! Obama is the presumptive nominee! McCain no closer to figuring out the country he wants to bomb!

Posted by: are we there yet? | May 20, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

KY:

Clinton: 58
Obama: 39
Edwards: 2.5

Oregon:

Obama: 57
Clinton: 43

Karen H in SF

Posted by: my predictions | May 20, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 69
Obama 31

Oregon:
Obama 51
Clinton 48

Clinton will claim a majority of the popular vote and determination to stay in the race.

Posted by: Jobie | May 20, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Oregon:
Obama 55%, Clinton 44%

Kentucky:
Clinton 60%, Obama 36%

Headline: Same Voting Demographics, Different States: Little Changes in the Democratic Primary After May 20th Voting

Oregon Senate:
Merkely 47%, Novak 42%

Posted by: Harrison J | May 20, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton 65%
Obama 35%

Oregon
Clinton 36%
Obama 64%

Posted by: aec62 | May 20, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 66 - 33 Obama

Oregon:
Obama: 56.7 - 43.3

Oregon Senate:
Novick 52 - 48 Merkley

The Story:
Obama makes the point that he has secured a lead in pledged delegates, but does not "declare victory." Clinton continues on un-conciliatory. Buchanan-types spend the night talking about the working class white vote, as Olbermann-types point out that Oregon has similar numbers of whites making less than 50,000. On this point,they talk past each other for the whole night, but they do agree that Obama will be the nominee.

Posted by: John from Fayetteville | May 20, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Oregon 59 Obama - 41 Clinton
Kentucky - 64 Clinton
- 31 Obama
- 5 Edwards

The Story: Obama is the presumptive nominee, but Hillary gets props for being a "scrapper"... More on will Obama choose Hillary to be his running mate, will Hillary accept.

Posted by: Dave (pdxgeek) | May 20, 2008 12:07 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 63
Obama 32

Oregon:
Obama 55
Clinton 43

Novick 45
Merkley 43

Obama flirts with claiming victory, but Clinton's big win in KY keeps her in through June 3rd.

Posted by: jallenba | May 20, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton -- 67.5%
Obama -- 32.5%

Oregon:
Obama -- 55.3%
Clinton -- 44.7%

Story Line by Middle America:

Obama is so far LEFT that he has LEFT America with "GD America" crowd. GDA also LEFT us with maxed out credit card debt.

Senate Primary:
Merkley -- 55.1%
Novick -- 44.9%

Posted by: YesWeCanForFree | May 20, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

KY Clinton 67% Obama 31%

OR Obama 57% Clinton 38%

Storyline: Kentuckians just as "hardworking" as West Virginians.

Obama-Hillary truce breaks down as he celebrates majority of pledged delegates and she makes spurious claims to popular vote.

Posted by: OD | May 20, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

KY: 57%-39% for Clinton
Headline: Obama still can't win the white vote!


OR: 55%-36% for Obama
Headline: Obama still can't win the hard working white vote!

Posted by: Elimno | May 20, 2008 12:00 PM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 68, Obama 32

Oregon: Obama 57, Clinton 43

storyline: Obama sort of declares the nomination his

Oregon Senate: Novick 55, Merkley 45

Posted by: yellowdogjz | May 20, 2008 11:55 AM | Report abuse

and then ... BREAKING NEWS woke up.

Posted by: esmerelda123 | May 20, 2008 11:52 AM | Report abuse

HEADLINES FOR TOMORROWS PAPERS! "BREAKING NEWS!"
TOO MUCH TOO EARLY! OBAMA LOSES BIG TIME IN KY!
FOOL THE AMERICAN PUBLIC ONCE, SHAME ON YOU! BUT YOU WILL NOT FOOL US TWICE!
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE BEEN EMPOWERED BY PRESIDENT CANIDATE HILLARY CLINTON-MILLIONS UPON MILLIONS OF VOTERS HAVE MADE THEIR VOICES HEARD ACROSS AMERICA!
THE AMERICA PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN ONCE AGAIN, "HILLARY, HILLARY, HILLARY"
THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS AND VOTING PROCESS HAS BEEN BROUGHT BACK TO THIS ELECTION VIA THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR HILLARY!
OBAMA VOTERS ARE SWITCHING THEIR VOTES TO HILLARY CLINTON!
THE MEDIA FINALLY GETS IT-HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT!
OBAMA "PLAYING" AT BEING PRESIDENT IS PUT IN HIS PLACE BY HILLARY CLINTON AND THE AMERICAN VOTERS!

Posted by: BREAKING NEWS! | May 20, 2008 11:49 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky

HC - 65
BO - 30
Other - 5

Oregon

BO - 57
HC - 43

Storyline: Obama Claims Delegate Majority; Clinton Shows Strength and Vows to Fight On

Posted by: John Ly | May 20, 2008 11:48 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Obama 31.2
Clinton 64.4

Oregon:
Obama 53.2
Clinton 46.6

Story:
Too little too late, Clinton's win not enough, but continues to fight on...

Merkley 53
Novick 47

Posted by: jhanson | May 20, 2008 11:42 AM | Report abuse

" Parties have a wide amount of latitude in the selection of national delegates. It seems that the courts err on the side of protecting the explicity mentioned freedoms of assembly and association"

Exactly right- the nomination of candidates are the perogative of political parties who are free to choose whatever mechanism they want for determining a nominee, as protected by the freedom of association guarantee. This is also why re-votes in FL and MI would need to be paid for by the parties and not the states; the process of even hosting a primary regulated by the states is a service many states perform largely because all the states are dominated by the two major parties, and the formal primary process aids in maintaining and strengthening the two party system- but it's not inherently part of the electoral process.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 11:32 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 66%
Obama 34%

Oregon:
Obama 57%
Clinton 43%

Clinton vows to press forward, Obama talks about McCain, and the press reports ad nauseum for the next 3 days that nothing in the race has changed. Some minor campaign kerfuffle happens on Friday to change the subject. On Monday, all the reporters that had declared the race over go to their editors to declare the race is not over as they realize Puerto Rico sounds like a good place to cover a primary.

Posted by: Patrick | May 20, 2008 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Who do you predict will win the Kentucky & Oregon Democratic Presidential Primaries?

------------> http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2429


.

Posted by: Frank, Austin TX | May 20, 2008 11:29 AM | Report abuse

KY

C: 62
O: 34
Oth: 4

OR

C: 44
O: 56

Storyline: Is the end in sight? Obama declares pledged delegate victory, sources in Clinton camp say it's only a matter of days.

Merkeley: 52
Novick: 48

Posted by: UndercoverCanard | May 20, 2008 11:27 AM | Report abuse

KY:
HRC 58
BHO 38
OTR 04

OR:
HRC 43
BHO 57

Obama achieves pledged delegate majority. What will the supers do? Give details on the rules committee!

Posted by: junkforchris | May 20, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton-64%
Obama--36%

Oregon: Clinton-44%
Obama--56%
Sen. Clinton clearly cannot win the
democratic nomination, she should
stay in the race until all states have
voted, however, she should get out
immediately after the June 3 primaries
and work with Sen. Obama to help make
sure the democrats win in November

Posted by: Wilbert Collins | May 20, 2008 11:17 AM | Report abuse

KY Clinton 64...Obama 36
ORE Obama 56...Clinton 44

Posted by: Mgt | May 20, 2008 11:13 AM | Report abuse

esmeralda:
Don't bother with that one. S/He's quite dense.

37& O:
I did what you suggested and read several court decisions.

Democratic Party v. Wisconsin ex rel. La Follette, 450 U.S. 107 (1981)

Cousins v. Wigoda, 419 U.S. 477 (1974)

Read em and weep. Parties have a wide amount of latitude in the selection of national delegates. It seems that the courts err on the side of protecting the explicity mentioned freedoms of assembly and association. Furthermore, while the states must attempt to provide equal protection under law, the parties act to serve a "pervasive national interest, which is paramount to any interest of a State in protecting the integrity of its electoral process". (CvW)

Furthermore, Bush v. Gore (2000) stated that no Federal Law or section of the constitution grants the right to vote for Presidential Electors. If we don't have a right to vote in the general election, what makes you think that right exists in the primary?

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 11:12 AM | Report abuse

KY:
HRC 71
BHO 20
OTR 09

OR:
HRC 48
BHO 52

Posted by: Will | May 20, 2008 11:10 AM | Report abuse

Oh, and narrative tomorrow:

Puerto Rico is an important swing state that has selected the President every year since 1788, and the magic number for delegates is now 28,452.

Terry McAuliffe = the 2008 version of Baghdad Bob.

Posted by: P Diddy | May 20, 2008 11:03 AM | Report abuse

KY::
HRC:57%
BHO:38%
OTR:5%

OR::
HRC:43%
BHO:57%
OTR:Neg.

Story: Obama declares pledged delegate victory, thanks supporters, blasts McCain/Bush. Clinton vows to carry on, calls for FL and MI to count, plugs HillaryClinton.com no fewer than three times in KY victory address, blasts McCain/Bush.

Posted by: Mason | May 20, 2008 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Oregon: Obama, 57%, Clinton 43%.

Kentucky: Clinton, 56%, Obama 37%.

"Obama truly the presumptive nominee, Clinton as veep talk surges. Then back to the general election that we've been having since last Thursday."

Posted by: jbschroeder10 | May 20, 2008 11:01 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 68%
Obama 32%

Oregon:
Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Posted by: P Diddy | May 20, 2008 11:01 AM | Report abuse

Hillary will claim victory as she tried to fleece her supporters out of more money. Mean time she hasn't paid her staff and is stiffing other workers left and right. The way she has run her campaign may be the most telling thing about her. She is completely inept in every way. She likes to say all Obama does is give a speech. Man she has the biggest line of BS I have ever seen. She even lies to her own supporters on a daily bases.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:55 AM | Report abuse

KY CLINTON 54 OBAMA 44 ORE. OBAMA 61 CLINTON38 GET IT DONE !

Posted by: SPENCER OLIVER | May 20, 2008 10:53 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 58.7
Obama 41.1

Oregon:
Obama 55.1
Clinton 44.7

Clinton vows to Soldier on, but suspends campaign before the weekend. Obama continues to be magnanimous and waits for call from Clinton. Super delegates announce in droves for Obama.

Jeff Merkley 50.05
Steve Novick 49.95

Posted by: It is Really Over | May 20, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

KY CLINTON 54 OBAMA 44 ORE. OBAMA 61 CLINTON 38

Posted by: SPENCER | May 20, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

Well. we saw what happened with a former drunk for a president. Now they are running another drunk who also has a history of mental instability as well. Is this crazy or what, where do the republicans get these guys. Mccain is out of his mind I don't care how much they try to cover it up.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Oregon:

Obama 59
Clinton 41

Novick 54
Merkley 46

Kentucky:

Clinton 61
Obama 39

Storyline:

Obama earns majority of pledged delegates. SuperDelegates rush to Obama heading into Memorial Day Weekend. Once MI and FL are resolved the race will officially be over. Obama crushes Hillary again in fundraising.

Posted by: Noah | May 20, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Oregon:
Obama - 57
Clinton - 42
Other - 1

Kentucky:
Clinton - 58
Obama - 37
Other - 5

Storyline: Obama CAN win white voters. Edwards helped in Eastern Kentucky. Obama claims pledged delegate victory, MSM agrees. Clinton claims total popular vote victory, while Chuck Todd/John King refute that notion explaining Clinton's bizarre math to get to those numbers.

Oregon Senate:
Merkley - 51.5
Novick - 49.4

Posted by: Joe...com | May 20, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton: 65
Obama: 35

OR:
Clinton: 40
Obama: 60

OR-Sen:
Merkley: 52
Novick: 48

"Another split decision. Clinton loaned herself another $5 million. Claims lead in popular vote. Vamos a Puerto Rico!"

Posted by: Greg in MD | May 20, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Oregon:
Obama: 57%
Clinton: 42%

Kentucky:
Obama: 35%
Clinton: 59%

OR Senate:
Novick: 48%
Merkley: 49%

Storyline:
Obama clearly wins delegates and supers; Clinton still sees she has a chance based on Michigan and Florida; Al Gore pledges support for Obama on June 2.

Posted by: jj | May 20, 2008 10:49 AM | Report abuse

"Presidential canidate Hillary will have such a large margin in KY and OR that it will be the first in American History."

I'm not even sure what this means...

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 10:49 AM | Report abuse

OR:
Obama 58.5%
Clinton 41.5%

KY:
Obama 39%
Clinton 55.5%

OR Sen:
Merkley 47%
Novick 53%
(this is the home state of the Roloff's)

Story: No change from last week, Clinton sights dubious math as justification for continuing, is nearly ignored as focus shifts to Obama v. McCain in the general.

Posted by: TM Moore | May 20, 2008 10:48 AM | Report abuse

Didn't Mrs. bush kill someone in a drunk driving accident?

+++++++
i'm sorry, nancy sabet, but your tirade against obama's drug use is misplaced. by your logic, bush should not be present because drinking and driving is also illegal. mccain's wife should not be first lady because she too has a drug-use past. (and let's not even get into mccain's past drinking problem or his "judgment" of leaving his first wife, the one who waited for him during his POW years, for a younger, richer one. family values indeed.)

Posted by: occasionalblogger | May 20, 2008 10:44 AM

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

"Not to mention his yet to be disclosed sleazy associations with Rezko/Operation Board room/Auchi."

You mean all the stuff that Clintonistas kept promising would come out in the trial but didn't?

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

KY
Hillary 58%
Obama 42%

OR
Obama 78%
Hillary 22%

Storyline is the same old story. And then there was June 3.

Posted by: esmerelda123 | May 20, 2008 10:46 AM | Report abuse

Hillary is running little more then a Ponzi scheme now as she fund raises for a fantasy campaign. They are on the cheap as they rake in as much case as they can before the shut it down. What a fraud on the suckers who are giving her money.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:45 AM | Report abuse

i'm sorry, nancy sabet, but your tirade against obama's drug use is misplaced. by your logic, bush should not be present because drinking and driving is also illegal. mccain's wife should not be first lady because she too has a drug-use past. (and let's not even get into mccain's past drinking problem or his "judgment" of leaving his first wife, the one who waited for him during his POW years, for a younger, richer one. family values indeed.)

Posted by: occasionalblogger | May 20, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

It's not too late to finally see the light that Obama is a flawed candidate. In addition to having no record of accomplishments, he is ruthless in trashing his opponents using borderline legal methods, starting with his run for the Illinois Senate, he is thin-skinned, he stays silent in the face of inflammatory propaganda and overt sexism, yet he cries blood murder when it hits close to home. One word, Obama is a hypocrite.

Not to mention his yet to be disclosed sleazy associations with Rezko/Operation Board room/Auchi.

See
http://hillaryresponders.com/index.php?/Rezko/

http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_evelyn_p_080518_curtain_time_for_bar.htm

Posted by: alee21 | May 20, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

Presidential canidate Hillary will have such a large margin in KY and OR that it will be the first in American History. The people of the United States have spoken and continue to speak, millions upon millions. We, the people of America will vote and we will elect our own President not one appointed by the Media. Congratulations future Madam Prsident on the great forecast of your victory!! America is watching to see how the media treats this, time around!

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky

%57 Clinton
%43 Obama


Oregon

%60 Obama
%40 Clinton

!!!! Go Obama!!

Posted by: Obama2008 | May 20, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse

37thandO, i am so tired of the argument. the reason why the delegates are not seated is because the STATE LEGISLATURE or whoever it is deciding to BREAK PARTY RULES went ahead knowing what the sanction would be. the democratic party is not at fault. the states are. they made their beds. they should lie in them. and hillary should not be flipping from one position to the other now that she is in a losing position without those unfairly cast votes. if the citizens of those states are pissed, the only source of their anger is their own state party, NOT THE CANDIDATES. for heaven's sake. get informed.

Posted by: esmerelda123 | May 20, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton - 58
Obama - 42

OR
Obama - 56
Clinton - 44

Novick - 54
Merkley - 46

With an almost even split between KY and OR the race goes on to PR, although Clinton schedules campaign staff meetings for Wednesday/Thursday.

Posted by: cferry3124@aol.com | May 20, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Magic 8-ball says:

KY:
HRC 64.3%
BHO 31.8%
JRE 5.9%

OR:
HRC 44.6%
BHO 55.5%

OR Sen:
Merkley 52.1%
Novick 47.9%

Storyline: Hillary continues to claim a majority of the popular vote and the mantle of electability, while Barack Black Eagle claims a majority of delegates. But the canary in the HRC coal mine is on its last leg and more superdelegates switch to Obama.

Posted by: mnteng | May 20, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Oregon

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Merkley 53%
Novick 47%

Kentucky

Clinton 57%
Obama 43%

Storyline - Hillary Who? Obama goes over the top in elected delegates; Hillary vows to go to the finish line, but her campaign is a joke looking for a punchline.

Posted by: bondjedi | May 20, 2008 10:34 AM | Report abuse

KY

Hill 60
Obama 39

OR

Obama 62
Hill 38

It's over--again; Hillary won't accept reality.

Posted by: MRassam | May 20, 2008 10:31 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton - 62
Obama - 36

Oregon
Obama - 58
Clinton - 42

Obama postures towards the general, McCain, while Clinton strives to stay relevant

Posted by: Jeremy Sherer | May 20, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

OR: Obama 62% Clinton: 38%

KY: Clinton 58% Obama: 42%

If the people of Kentucky become aware of the article written by Nico Pitney and Sam Stein in the Huffinton Post on May 19, 2008 titled 'Superdelegates Turned Down $ 1 Million Offer From Clinton Donor', the result might be closer.
Tomorrow the superdelegates will start joining the Obama team in larger numbers.

Posted by: PCM 01 | May 20, 2008 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton 64%
Obama 31%
Edwards 5%

Oregon
Obama 73%
Clinton 27%

Clinton vows to continue the fight - please donate hillaryclinton.com. Obama takes the majority in delegates, holds a HUGE rally in Iowa to thank supporters.
Amen.

Posted by: Joyce | May 20, 2008 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 51%

Oregon:
Obama: 63%
Clinton: 36%

Posted by: Grandtheo | May 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Oregon: Obama 56, Clinton 44
KY: Clinton 69, Obama 31

Dominating story line...Will Be: HOw close he came to clinching the pledged delegates and whether that's enough for him to begin forcing her from the race more forcefully.

Should Be: How Oregon incomes are actually about the same as OH, MI and other states where BHO is said to have a problem connecting to the working class. The meme that OR is a yuppie paradise is belied by its standing at 28th among states in personal income, between Michigan and Ohio, and falling. A win in Oregon is very much like a win in states that Obama needs to have back east, and demonstrates that the task isn't that difficult (PA polling of Obama v. McCain suggests the same thing).

Posted by: timbo60 | May 20, 2008 10:21 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky

Hillary Clinton, 59%
Barack Obama, 36%

Oregon

Barack Obama, 57%
Hillary Clinton, 41%

Storyline: Obama will not make the point that he has won a majority of plegded delegates. Hillary will make again her case about the weaknesses of Obama with lower-income voters and blue collar democrats, call for Michigan and Florida to be counted and for everyone to keep the race going. Tomorrow morning Obama gets from five to ten more superdelegates and campaigns on unifying the party. Probably, some important member of the Democratic party will suggest Hillary to join Obama's efforts against McCain, and make the case for Obama's almost nomination. Al Gore endorses Obama before June 3.


Posted by: Servat | May 20, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

My prediction

Kentucky: 62%-32% Obama does better than expected in Kentucky because the demographics there aren't quite as bad for him there as they were in West Virginia.

Oregon- 60%-37%. Obama wins Oregon by a landslide.

He wins the majority of the pledged delegates. Vicotory is his

Posted by: Michael | May 20, 2008 10:20 AM | Report abuse

KY Clinton 62 Obama 34 Other 4
ON Obama 52 Clinton 48

Hillary continues to use the funds solicited from the 'white hard working Americans' to continue to pay unscrupulous employees to post negative smears about Obama on all of the media blogs.
Claims that it is unfair to measure a candidate by lack of integrity. Says she used to have some before she gave it up.
Claims she had no choice, this was the requirement from the Republicans when she made the pact, with them, to leave her alone and she would aid them in destroying Obama.

Posted by: Truth Matters | May 20, 2008 10:19 AM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton: 67%
Obama:27%
Other:6%

OR
Clinton: 47%
Obama:53%

Posted by: Comment | May 20, 2008 10:19 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 57, Obama 40
Oregon: Clinton 43, Obama 57

Key storyline: after a apate of really amusing (if inadvertently so) opinion pieces on the differences between Kentucky and Oregon - written generally by people with no actual knowledge of either place - the MSM will be shocked and astonished to notice that Obama doesn't have a problem with white people so much as he has a problem with rednecks. Several pundits' heads will explode after making this Archimedean discovery.

Oregon Senate: Novick 47, Merkley 45.

Posted by: JAC | May 20, 2008 10:18 AM | Report abuse

Oregon: Obama 56, Clinton 44
KY: Clinton 69, Obama 31

Dominating story line...Will Be: HOw close he came to clinching the pledged delegates and whether that's enough for him to begin forcing her from the race more forcefully.

Should Be: How Oregon incomes are actually about the same as OH, MI and other states where BHO is said to have a problem connecting to the working class. The meme that OR is a yuppie paradise is belied by its standing at 28th among states in personal income, between Michigan and Ohio, and falling. A win in Oregon is very much like a win in states that Obama needs to have back east, and demonstrates that the task isn't that difficult (PA polling of Obama v. McCain suggests the same thing).

Posted by: timbo60 | May 20, 2008 10:16 AM | Report abuse

"white working voters in Kentucky labeled racists. black voters go for Obama 94 to 5, labeled enlightened.

race relations set back 30 years as obama continues playing the "i'm black" card."

Apparently black voters don't work. Nice job, anonymous, you really show yourself to be enlightened and in a position to lecture others...

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 10:16 AM | Report abuse

OR: Barack 45% Hillary 41%
KY: Hillary 70% Barack 20%

Barack should stop counting his chicks They haven't hatched yet. Skeletons are yet to drop that will scuttle this hatching.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton 64%, Obama 32%
OR: Obama 60%, Clinton 40%

OR Senate: Novick 51%, Merkley 49%

Obama ends the night around 50 delegates from clinching the nomination enchilada officially (Clinton around 250 away); the narrative will be how the majority of White voters in "swing state" OR went for Obama, and whether Obama formally clinches outright after PR, or SD/MT.

Posted by: Seth | May 20, 2008 10:07 AM | Report abuse

white working voters in Kentucky labeled racists.

black voters go for Obama 94 to 5, labeled
enlightened.

race relations set back 30 years as obama continues playing the "i'm black" card.

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20, 2008 10:05 AM | Report abuse

OR: Obama 61, Clinton 39
KY: Clinton 65, Obama 35

Story:
Offsetting blowouts do nothing to change dynamic, though Obama iis hailed for clinching pledged delegate lead. In speech, Clinton vows to go on...drops out the next day.

Posted by: faberman.jason | May 20, 2008 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton -59 Obama - 40

Oregon: Obama- 55 Clinton 45

Posted by: Jay Nair | May 20, 2008 10:03 AM | Report abuse

KY:

Clinton 65
Obama 25

OR:

Obama 56.5
Clinton 42.3

OR Senate:
Novick 51.2
Merkley 47.1

Storylines: Press starts to examine the giant elephant in the room (race), but WVa and KY were too late to fundamentally change the dynamic.

Novick shocks Dem establishment, for bonus points (Novick makes OR competitive in the fall by attacking Smith on the war, and pulls off shocking "wellstone-like" win.)

Posted by: leuchtman | May 20, 2008 10:02 AM | Report abuse

Oregon Obama 56
Clinton 44

Kentucky Obama 40
Clinton 60

Oregon primary Novak 49
Merckley 51

Obama wins enough delegates to seize 2029 and open the superdelegate floodgates.

Oregon voters are liberal , but not liberal enough to take a chance on Novak when they know they have a real shot at beating Gordon Smith in the fall . Merckley wins by a whisker.

Posted by: Joe D | May 20, 2008 10:01 AM | Report abuse

Oregon Senate Primary:

Novick: 53%
Merkley:46%

storyline:"Change" is the key to Mountain and Pacific West.

Posted by: chadibuins | May 20, 2008 9:57 AM | Report abuse

Oregon : Obama 56
Clinton 44

Kentucky: Clinton 61
Obama 39

Oregon Primary : Novack 49
Merckley 51

Posted by: Joe D. | May 20, 2008 9:57 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 67.5%
Obama 32%

Oregon:

Obama 53%
Clinton 47%

Oregon senate:

Merkley 53%
Novick 47%

Headline: Hillary keeps it going onto FL & MI on 5/31

Posted by: Patrick NYC | May 20, 2008 9:54 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 66
Obama 30
Other 4

Oregon: Clinton 45
Obama 52
Other 3

Record voter mail-in turnout in OR; low voter turnout in KY (attributed to MSM biased coverage and folks in rural KY who can't afford the gas money to drive to their polling places since the guy on TV said it won't make any difference anyway); Clinton maintains lead in popular vote when MI and FL are included.


Posted by: CaroleFtL | May 20, 2008 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 65%
Obama 29%

Oregon:
Obama: 57%
Clinton 41%

Clinton hammers home importance of blue collar whites in advance of the DNC rules committee meeting on 5/31. Obama emerges from primary with simple majority of pledged delegates and takes aim at McCain.

Posted by: chadibuins | May 20, 2008 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton- 52; Obama- 45; Edwards- 3
Oregon: Obama- 56; Clinton- 44
Iowa: Nic- 1 shirt; Fix- out 1 shirt

Story lines:
Kentucky: Race not a big factor; Oregon: Obama wins big among whites, comfortably among working-class

Posted by: Nic | May 20, 2008 9:48 AM | Report abuse

followup storyline:

Clinton overheard muttering, while digging, "there's got to be a crown down here somewhere..."

Posted by: bsimon | May 20, 2008 9:47 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton: 62
Obama: 33
Edwards: 5

Oregon:
Clinton: 41
Obama: 59

Clinton claims mandate from "working Americans," vows to fight on for the forgotten people. In interview, Gore calls Obama "likely nominee."

Oregon Senate:
Merkley: 49.5
Novick: 50.5

With Pint-Size Margin, Novick Hooks Senate Nomination.

Posted by: JakeDM | May 20, 2008 9:46 AM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 59
Obama 36

OR:
Obama 57
Clinton 41

OR Senate:
Novick 37
Merkley 34

Storyline: Clinton wins KY by a landslide. Despite the ensuing rubble blocking her path to the nomination, Clinton vows to keep digging until she finds a way out.

Posted by: bsimon | May 20, 2008 9:44 AM | Report abuse

Oregon --

Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Kentucky --

Clinton 63%
Obama 37%

Storyline -- Obama announces he has majority of pledged delegates, Clinton says will continue on.

Posted by: Andrew Gerst | May 20, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

Oregon
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%

Kentucky
Clinton 59%
Obama 41%


Story line will be Obama as the future of the Democratic Party appealing to young, better educated voters with a worldview, and Hillary courting the past, an aging blue collar base.

Posted by: Chicago Stu | May 20, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

"The fact that Obama admitted to using drugs should automatically disqualify him for the office for a probably a million reasons."

As opposed to our past two presidents who just refuse to admit it...

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 9:35 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 63
Obama 37

Oregon: Obama 57
Clinton 43

Storyline: Two more states, same two themes - Obama focuses on McCain; Clinton says "It ain't over 'til it's over".

Posted by: Swinford | May 20, 2008 9:35 AM | Report abuse

Oregon:
Obama 58
Clinton 41

Kentucky
Clinton 64
Obama 34

Story: Obama clinches pledged delegate win despite significant loss in KY; final delegate allocation may give him pledged delegate win including FL and MI.

Posted by: kreuz_missile | May 20, 2008 9:34 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton 61 Obama 39

Oregon
Obama 58 Clinton 42

Posted by: Rick Cornejo | May 20, 2008 9:32 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Hillary 64%
Obama 31%
Other 7%

Oregon:
Hillary 40%
Obama 53%
Other 7%

Posted by: Jason | May 20, 2008 9:30 AM | Report abuse

Do you not understand the awesome power and responsibility of the Presidency of the USA? The fact that Obama admitted to using drugs should automatically disqualify him for the office for a probably a million reasons. I'll list:
A. Bad judgment
B. Possible brain damage
C. Weakness of character
D. Addictive personality
E. Bad role model
F. Drugs are illegal/ President is chief law enforcement official in land
G. Possibility of relapse
H. Possibility of physiological damage to heart, other organs or organ systems
I. Unable to gauge consequences of actions aka A.
J. Blackmail possibilities ie national security risk
K. Heightened increase of scandalous activities
L. Has a different set values than most of us (non normative value system)
M. Anyone who does drugs is an idiot
N. No remorse or treatment for actions means sociopathic and narcissistic behavior
O. Did I mention that drugs were illegal in all 50 states? People go to prison for what Obama has admitted to doing.

Posted by: nancy sabet | May 20, 2008 9:29 AM | Report abuse

Ken. Clinton 60 Obama 37

Or. Obama 58 Clinton 42

Headline; We are still in the race

Posted by: Edu Ibe | May 20, 2008 9:29 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky

Clinton 62
Obama 32

Oregon

Obama 55
Clinton 45

Merkley 53
Movick 47

Obama claims pledged delegate victory, Hillary claims she will continue to fight, but pundits call it over.

Posted by: Lee | May 20, 2008 9:22 AM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 63%
Obama 30%
Other 7%

OR:
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%

Posted by: Billy from Odenton MD | May 20, 2008 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 64%
Obama 34%

Oregon:

Obama 51%
Clinton 48%

Oregon senate:

Merkley 55%
Novick 48%

Headline:
Blowout in Kentucky, Squeaker in Oregon, Clinton fights on.

Posted by: Gdaw | May 20, 2008 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Prediction-
MS (MOST Slanted)NBC pro Obama:
99.99%

pro Billary:
.01%

-Wm Tate,
http://www.atimelikethis.us/

Posted by: Wm Tate | May 20, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton 46 Obama 24
OR: Clinton 48 Obama 52

When they are not busy railroading Obama's nomination is the DNC paying attention to the fact that Clinton continues to pull in millions of voters after they have deemed her candidacy dead--hello, if she goes independent I am voting for her!

Posted by: marilyn p | May 20, 2008 9:15 AM | Report abuse

HILLARY TO SURPRISE WITH OREGON SQUEAKER

Obama will win, but by a razor-thin margin


His huge crowd this weekend notwithstanding, Obama's about to receive a big Hillary surprise as she loses by only a hair's breadth in today's Oregon primary.

Voters want another choice. Not necessarily Hillary -- but tomorrow, that's all they've got on the ballot.

So look for Hillary to capture 48 percent of the vote to Obama's 52 percent.

In Kentucky, Hillary once again will trounce Obama with a humongous 72 percent of the vote, to Obama's 23 percent, with the remaining 5 percent going to John Edwards, who remained on the ballot.

Obama's agitated over-reaction to Bush's "appeasement" remarks and to criticism directed at his wife once again demonstrates his thin skin and his inability to respond to political attacks with a show of strength rather than pique.

Voters are beginning to detect an empty suit here. Obama's dismissive attitude toward voters in West Virginia and Kentucky underscores his effete, elitist tendencies. Yes, the ugly specter of racial politics has been injected into the primary contests. Had Obama shown some ability to counterpunch, he could have at once narrowed Hillary's margins of victory and also demonstrated that he's got the courage to campaign for votes among all blocs of voters, "red necks" included.

By ceding those two states to Hillary, Obama only perpetuates the racial narrative that he oddly has been unable to overcome since the early "post-racial" days of Iowa.

Obama has tried to pretend the primaries have been decided. He's straining to play the role of the anointed one. But the truth of the matter cannot be hidden by a thin patina of premature self-congratulation.

Obama is wearing the Emporer's new clothes, and voters are starting to see through the artiface. Tomorrow, Hillary's narrow loss once again will tug at his sacred robe, revealing a candidate ill-equipped for the coming fall battle.

And once again, the supers will nervously huddle and ask, "What do we do now?"

And once again, some will whisper the name that has become code for a "third way": Al Gore. That "unity" fundraiser could be his launching point for a presidential run when and if Obama's campaign implodes due to mounting skepticism that he can draw traditional Democratic voting blocs. A re-emergence of "guilt-by-association-gate" also may help doom his candidacy, leading to a Gore draft.

Posted by: scrivener | May 20, 2008 9:15 AM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 61%
Obama 39%

OR:
Obama 57%
Clinton 43%

Headline story:
Candidates split Kentucky and Oregon, more supers stream to Obama as he closes in on nomination

Posted by: Joe B | May 20, 2008 9:14 AM | Report abuse

KY:

Clinton - 68
Obama - 31

OR:

Clinton - 37
Obama - 62

Storyline: John King got carpal tunnel.

Posted by: TMo | May 20, 2008 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Ky: Obama 36, Clinton 58

Or: Obama 56, Clinton 42

Merkley 53, Novick 46

Storyline: "There a 2 separate operations now, one a race to rescue the Presidency for the Democrats in November (Obama), and the other as a salvage (no longer rescue) operation (you know who)"

Posted by: medhat | May 20, 2008 8:58 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 63.4
Obama 32.1
Edwards 4.5

Oregon:
Obama 55.2
Clinton 44.8

Storyline: Obama hedges at victory but Florida and Michigan still loom...
Clinton thanks Kentucky: On To Puerto Rico.

Posted by: CoralGables | May 20, 2008 8:58 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 63, Obama 37

Oregon: Obama 58, Clinton 42

Headline: Clinton reminds superdelegates that pledged delegates can always change their votes too.

Posted by: Ross in Phoenix | May 20, 2008 8:57 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 33%

Oregon:
Obama: 58%
Clinton 42%

Storyline:
It is over and the lady in the pantsuit is starting to sing.

Posted by: Curt Lader | May 20, 2008 8:55 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 58
Obama 37

Oregon:

Clinton 42
Obama 56

Oregon:

Novick 53
Merkley 45

Headlines: Obama gains a majority in pledged delegates but soft pedals the results. Clinton says she'll stay until the primary season is over (and the DNC decides on FL and MI).

Posted by: RickJ | May 20, 2008 8:50 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 61 (31 pledge delegates)
Obama 39 (20 pledge delegates)

Oregon:
Obama 57 (30 pledge delegates)
Clinton 43 (22 pledge delegates)

Clinton 53 pledge delegates at the end of the night, Obama 50 delegates at the end of the night.

Senator Clinton charges on with a big Kentucky win as far as votes are concern but Senator Obama's Oregon win is fortelling of the upcoming South Dakota and Montanna primaries. The democratic nominee is sight.

Jeff Merkley 54
Steve Novick 46

Posted by: CitizenAJ | May 20, 2008 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Changed my Merkely-Novick number because another poster posted my number as I was writing mine! chg from 51-49 Merkely 8:24 to 52-48 Merkely now!

Posted by: JLD | May 20, 2008 8:32 AM | Report abuse

Looks like 8:18 beat me to the punch on the Merkely-Novick number, so I'll go with:

Merkely 52
Novick 48

thanks!

Posted by: JLD | May 20, 2008 8:31 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky's a who-cares yawner, but Oregon is getting close. What are the implications if Hillary were to somehow pull it off? Or even get within 4 points?

But, realistically...
Kentucky: HRC 65% Obama 33%
Oregon: Obama 54% HRC 46%

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: matt | May 20, 2008 8:27 AM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton 65
OBama 32

OR
Obama 56
CLinton 44

Story
Clinton Makes Mark In Kentucky, But Obama Seals Pledged Delegate Deal in Oregon

Posted by: Dangreenstone | May 20, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Merkley will beat Novick 51-49.

Clinton will win Kentucky 64-36.

Obama will win Oregon 61-39.

Clinton announces suspension of campaign activities for a "few days" to reassess the Campaign's future.

Posted by: JLD | May 20, 2008 8:24 AM | Report abuse

KY:
Clinton 65%
Obama 35%

OR:
Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Storyline: Clinton continues to win among poor uneducated white majorities; Obama does as expected among the smart heterogeneous set.

Posted by: johng1 | May 20, 2008 8:19 AM | Report abuse

Who do you predict will win the Kentucky & Oregon Democratic Presidential Primaries?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2429


.

Posted by: Frank, Austin TX | May 20, 2008 8:19 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky
Clinton - 63
Obama - 32
Edwards - 5

Oregon
Obama - 58
Clinton - 42

Oregon Senate Primary
Merkely - 51
Novick - 49

Posted by: Fisher555 | May 20, 2008 8:18 AM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton 64 (33 delegates), Obama 32 (18 delegates)

OR: Obama 62 (33 delegates), Clinton 38 (19 delegates)

Net: Clinton 52, Obama 51

Obama will then be ~60 delegates from the magically delicious 2025.

Novick 55, Merkley 45

Story line: Tie favors the (front-)runner: Obama, Clinton each win big, but Obama nearing finish line

Posted by: novamatt | May 20, 2008 8:18 AM | Report abuse

YES A CALL FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Florida and Michigan have the ball in their court now - the Democrats don't want the voices of Florida and Michigan citizens to be heard while the democratic nomination is still being decided?

How about if there is a movement within Florida and Michigan to deny the democratic party nominee ballot access in November in return. A fitting response. If the democrats do not want to count ALL of delegates elected on the dates selected by the STATE LEGISLATURE, then the democratic nominee should not be recognized on the ballots of those states in November.

There is no way that the democratic party should expect ANY cooperation from Florida or Michigan.

Florida and Michigan have the CONSTITUTIONAL POWER to set the rules for their own elections. The Constitution does not give the parties the right to set the rules for elections, nor does the Constitution give the parties power to select Nevada and South Carolina to hold elections before Florida and Michigan.

If the democrats do not want to respect Florida and Michigan, it doesn't have to go the other way either.

Each state should make a law that states that no political party can have its nominee on the ballots in Florida and in Michigan if the delegates selected are not counted BEFORE the nominee is decided, in this case when one candidate has the majority of delegates.

In the case of Michigan, place the provision in a bill which includes other items and negotiate a way to have the Governor agree.

In the interests of fairness, Obama has only himself to blame for actively attempting to PREVENT re-vote in Florida and Michigan. Obama has sought to take advantage of this issue, and has not lended any help in solving this issue.

Quite to the contrary, there has been an active campaign by the Obama people to PREVENT the re-votes and STOP the voters of Florida and Michigan from counting in the Democratic nomination process.

Obama has taken this course because his lead looks much stronger without Florida and Michigan delegates - little help to the right to vote or to democracy itself.


SANCTIONS AGAINST THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 20, 2008 8:16 AM | Report abuse

KY

Clinton 61
Obama 34
Other 5

OR

Clinton 41
Obama 59

Novick 52
Merkley 48

NEWSFLASH: Clinton doesnt drop out, Obama doesnt care! Obama passes 50% of elected delegates.

Posted by: marylandlegal | May 20, 2008 8:07 AM | Report abuse

Its time for Barack. Hillary was in the white house with her husband and so has nothing new for America. America needs a change in direction and the CHANGE can only be provided by Barack. Obama for Deocrats, Obama for America

Posted by: Foster | May 20, 2008 8:02 AM | Report abuse

Novick - 57, Merkley - 43

Posted by: Zitron | May 20, 2008 8:02 AM | Report abuse

KY Clinton 62, Obama, 32, Edwards 6
OR Clinton 48.6, Obama 51.4

STORYLINE: Obama wins majority of pledged delegates but Clinton won't pledge to Obama quite yet!

Posted by: DutchStudent23 | May 20, 2008 7:59 AM | Report abuse

I have to change my numbers


Kentucky Clinton 64 Obama 32 Edwards 5

Oregon Obama 57 Clinton 42

Storylines in line with my posting at 7:34


.

Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 20, 2008 7:56 AM | Report abuse

Hey, what about Vito Fossella? Can we get a little "Fix" on that? With him resigning, does that now become a top pickup opportunity? Perhaps the "Line" for House seats should expand to 20.

Posted by: Ryan | May 20, 2008 7:47 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky Clinton 66 Obama 35

Oregon 57 Obama 42 Clinton


Storyline: Rounding causes Kentucky to add up to 101 in Kentucky and 99 in Oregon, Blogs Go Wild With Conspiracy Charges.

Storyline: Warren Buffet Fails To Influence Kentucky Voters


Storyline: Obama Claims Majority of Pledged Delegates, Hillary Say She is More Electable


Popular Vote Totals Buttress Clinton

I believe it will be a split headline - focused more on the overall race than any surprise in the numbers


The media has bought into the storylines of the campaigns way too much this year - reporting the talking point as virtual facts.


The storyline will focus in on Obama closing in on a majority, but Hillary hanging on.

Remember: The Rules Committee meets on May 31 even if they seat a partial, like half the pledged delegates and all the superdelegates, the number of delegates needed for a majority will jump to 2135 or 2209.

KEEP AN EYE ON THAT 2135 NUMBER CHRIS.


.

Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 20, 2008 7:34 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky - Clinton 58 - Obama 33
Oregon - Obama 56 - Clinton 44

Headline - Clinton claims popular vote victory!

Posted by: John D in Houston | May 20, 2008 7:33 AM | Report abuse

Oregon, Obama 51%, Clinton 48%
Kentucky, Clinton 58%, Obama 40%, Edwards 2%

The media has called the race but Obama and Clinton continue the long, flat, seemingly endless bataan death march to the white house but the media have punched their time cards. Neither one of them seems to notice or care that some people think the race should be over.

Merekly, 54%, Novick, 46%

Posted by: John, philly | May 20, 2008 7:21 AM | Report abuse

KY Clinton 67 Obama 30 Other 3
OR Obama 56 Clinton 42

IRAN: TO BOMB OR NOT TO BOMB (following the Israeli radio report that Bush and Cheney intend to take military action before the end of the their term)

Posted by: DAN | May 20, 2008 7:09 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 55
Obama 45

Oregon:
Clinton 41
Obama 59

Merkley 49
Novick 51

Posted by: tallman | May 20, 2008 7:08 AM | Report abuse

KY
Clinton - 62%
Obama - 34%

OR
Obama - 56%
Clinton - 44%

Obama wins a majority of pledged delegates but Clinton won't quit.

Posted by: dnbraggs | May 20, 2008 7:07 AM | Report abuse

KY: Clinton 63, Obama 37
OR: Obama 54, Clinton 45

OR Senate: Novick 51, Merkley 49

Posted by: badgerbru | May 20, 2008 7:07 AM | Report abuse

Oops. math problem. Fixed below:

Kentucky - Hillary 58 Obama 40
Oregon - Obama 55 Hillary 40

"Clinton Drops Out!"

Posted by: Bob, DC | May 20, 2008 7:00 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:
Clinton 67%
Obama 29%

Oregon:
Obama 59%
Clinton 38%

Storyline - Clinton vows to keep going while the party starts to coalesce behind Obama (who avoids hubris).

Novick 53% def Merkley 47%

Posted by: aegisal | May 20, 2008 6:58 AM | Report abuse

KENTUCKY: Clinton, 71; Obama, 29
OREGON: Obama, 57, Clinton 43
Headline: Clinton stays, Obama's gap in swing voters starting to hurt"
OREGON SEN. PRIMARY: Novick 50%, Merkely 49%

Posted by: Matt B. | May 20, 2008 6:56 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky - Hillary 58 Obama 45
Oregon - Obama 55 Hillary 40

"Clinton Drops Out!"

Posted by: Bob, DC | May 20, 2008 6:54 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky: Clinton 60, Obama 40
Oregon: Obama 60, Clinton 40

Clinton continues on, to the detriment of the party.

Posted by: Jordan Davies | May 20, 2008 6:54 AM | Report abuse

Novick 48%
Merkley 43%

OR
BHO 58
HRC 42

KY
HRC 67
BHO 31

BHO holds more than half of the pledged delegates; HRC to finish string as Ds scramble to unify

Posted by: MarkInAustin | May 20, 2008 6:45 AM | Report abuse

KY- Clinton 68, Obama 31
OR- Obama 59, Clinton 41

Storyline: Obama, having claimed a majority even among superdelegates, proclaims his victory upon winning a majority of all pledged delegates. Clinton's campaign, and the Democratic primary race, are for all intents and purposes over. Obama is already in general election mode while negotiations continue to merge supporters and fundraising between the candidates, possibly pay off Hillary's campaign debt and/or agree on at least parameters of the VP nominee, and set the terms of Clinton's withdrawal and endorsement of Obama, though it won't come before June 3rd.

OR SEN: Novick 53, Merkley 47. Despite Schumer's preference for Merkley, Novick turns out to be the stronger candidate against Smith. Netroots claim defiant victory. Novick may be this year's Jon Tester.

Posted by: Jon Morgan | May 20, 2008 6:36 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky:

Clinton 60%
Obama 34%

Oregon:

Obama 58%
Clinton 38%

Oregon senate:

Merkley 53%
Novick 47%

Headline:

Obama claims an effective victory in the nomination process. Token fighting words from Clinton. Party elders continue to coalesce around Obama with more talk of the two candidates fundraising organisations merging.

Posted by: alex rossdeutsch | May 20, 2008 6:29 AM | Report abuse

Kentucky - Hillary 65 Obama 35
Oregon - Obama 57 Hillary 43

"Clinton hears the sound of inevitability, but vows to soldier on for one last hurrah"

Posted by: Simon | May 20, 2008 6:20 AM | Report abuse

Re the Senate primary: Novick wins over Merkley 54%-46%

Posted by: Bill Cooke | May 20, 2008 6:20 AM | Report abuse

Today 5/20/08 is a bad day for hate speech and hate mongers! Today will go down in history as the day OUR AMERICAN UNION becomes a little MORE PERFECT ! Today for the first time in the history of America an African American will clinch the nomination for the Presidency of the United States America ! OH HAPPY DAY ! It is a day that every American Democrat, Goper,rich, poor, black, white and Latino can hold their head a little bit higher because today we as Americans can say ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL AND ENDOWED BY A CREATOR WITH CERTAIN INALIENABLE RIGHTS TO PURSUE LIFE,LIBERTY AND HAPPINESS! GOD BLESS AMERICA! SENATOR BARACK OBAMA for PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA! IT'S TIME!

Posted by: Gordon | May 20, 2008 6:04 AM | Report abuse

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