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Michigan Predictions Revisited

After a lot of bad guesses about the New Hampshire primary, The Fix community bounced back nicely this week with a number of people coming very close to calling the exact outcome of the Michigan Republican primary.

The early leaders in the clubhouse were "wiseguy205" and "inonit" -- both of whom came within three points of calling the top three finishers and their percentages of the vote exactly right.

But in the end if was "ertel" who secured the now-legendary free Fix t-shirt with a prediction that missed by only two points. Here's the winning prediction with the actual percentages in parentheses:

Mitt Romney: 39 (39)
John McCain: 28 (30)
Mike Huckabee: 16 (16)

That is one top-notch prediction. If you are "ertel", make sure to email me at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost DOT com to claim your t-shirt.

In the political pros class, it was Bob Stevenson, a Republican consultant, who came the closest to the actual result. Here's Stevenson's prediction:

Romney: 34
McCain: 30
Huckabee: 23

As for predicting the correct storyline coming out of the Michigan primary, many people had some version of "Romney wins, race remains muddled." While that's technically right, we like to reward inventiveness here at The Fix -- especially when free t-shirts are on the line.

Given those, admittedly high, standards, there were two storylines that stood out:

The first came from "chickens97" and read: "McCain's 'Straight Talk' too much for Michigan; Romney's Upbeat Message Carries the Day."

The second, by "rkmfcca" got major points for creativity: "Romney no Edsel, lives to fight another day."

Well done to both of you. Send me your mailing addresses so just as soon as we have Fix t-shirts I can get them to you.

Didn't make the winners circle this time around? We'll be back Saturday with the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary.

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 18, 2008; 6:10 PM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: The Line: Don't Forget Congress!
Next: Nevada and S. Carolina -- Get Those Predictions In!


The candidates have similar positions on the issues - this debate was about leadership, courage, integrity, and honesty.

Posted by: glclark4750 | January 21, 2008 10:43 PM | Report abuse

msadvice: I have seen that Youtube piece and there are a lot of others that depict about the same thing. Again, there is something wrong with this guy.

Posted by: lylepink | January 19, 2008 10:22 AM | Report abuse

From 2 SC pundits:

"Thigpen said if turnout in today's Republican primary is under 400,000, it benefits Huckabee.

Bruce Ransom, a political science professor at Clemson University agreed: 'A high turnout would favor McCain.'"
Snow today in SC = HUCKABEE?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 19, 2008 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 19, 2008 10:00 AM | Report abuse

Dirty trix from the LV Sun:

Caucus-goers beware

Sat, Jan 19, 2008 (2 a.m.)

The Democratic Party has confirmed that some voters received calls deliberately providing false information about their caucus site and time.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 19, 2008 9:58 AM | Report abuse

For some more reasons the NV caucuses have no
significant bearing on the nominations, read

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 19, 2008 9:48 AM | Report abuse

The Nevada caucus today favors Obama in the way it is set up, but I think Hillary will surprise most and pull out a win.

Posted by: lylepink | January 19, 2008 7:35 AM | Report abuse

Dear Chris,

Most readers don't care about the accuracy of the predictions of pundits. It is, quite frankly, yesterday's news.


Steve Bahadur

Posted by: stevebahadur | January 19, 2008 4:50 AM | Report abuse

Here is the video of Obama making fun of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.. t.obama.hillary.experience.cnn

Posted by: msadvice | January 18, 2008 8:02 PM | Report abuse

What about the democrat race?

Posted by: anthonyjbrady | January 18, 2008 7:35 PM | Report abuse


The eagerly anticipated Michigan Unstoppable Mittmentum!!!!!!!

Mitt's proud dad must be overjoyed in Heaven!

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 18, 2008 6:25 PM | Report abuse

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