Michigan Predictions Revisited
After a lot of bad guesses about the New Hampshire primary, The Fix community bounced back nicely this week with a number of people coming very close to calling the exact outcome of the Michigan Republican primary.
The early leaders in the clubhouse were "wiseguy205" and "inonit" -- both of whom came within three points of calling the top three finishers and their percentages of the vote exactly right.
But in the end if was "ertel" who secured the now-legendary free Fix t-shirt with a prediction that missed by only two points. Here's the winning prediction with the actual percentages in parentheses:
Mitt Romney: 39 (39)
John McCain: 28 (30)
Mike Huckabee: 16 (16)
That is one top-notch prediction. If you are "ertel", make sure to email me at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost DOT com to claim your t-shirt.
In the political pros class, it was Bob Stevenson, a Republican consultant, who came the closest to the actual result. Here's Stevenson's prediction:
As for predicting the correct storyline coming out of the Michigan primary, many people had some version of "Romney wins, race remains muddled." While that's technically right, we like to reward inventiveness here at The Fix -- especially when free t-shirts are on the line.
Given those, admittedly high, standards, there were two storylines that stood out:
The first came from "chickens97" and read: "McCain's 'Straight Talk' too much for Michigan; Romney's Upbeat Message Carries the Day."
The second, by "rkmfcca" got major points for creativity: "Romney no Edsel, lives to fight another day."
Well done to both of you. Send me your mailing addresses so just as soon as we have Fix t-shirts I can get them to you.
Didn't make the winners circle this time around? We'll be back Saturday with the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary.
January 18, 2008; 6:10 PM ET
Categories: Eye on 2008
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