Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity

Parsing the (Tracking) Poll: October Surprise

Although there are only two days left in October, there are still many people in the political world waiting for an "October Surprise" -- some sort of game-changing event in the final moment before the general election that could fundamentally alter the race between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Four years ago, that "surprise" was a videotaped message from terrorist Osama bin-Laden; eight years ago it was the revelation that George W. Bush had been arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol in the 1970s.

Data contained in the latest Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll suggest that even if a "major crisis" (read: October surprise) were to happen, it's not clear it would change the underlying fundamentals of the contest.

Asked which candidate they trusted more to handle an "unexpected major crisis", the poll sample split almost right down the middle with 47 percent naming Obama and 48 percent choosing McCain.

While that finding -- from a tracking poll conducted Sunday, Monday and Tuesday -- is an improvement for McCain from ten days ago (Obama at that time led on the question 49 percent to 45 percent), it is a far cry from the more solid margins the Arizona senator held earlier this summer.

Back in mid-July, 51 percent of voters in the Post/ABC poll trusted McCain more to handle an "unexpected major crisis" while 42 percent chose Obama. Immediately following the Republican National Convention, McCain's lead jumped to 17 points -- 54 percent to 37 percent. Even at the end of September, McCain was still holding on to a 50 percent to 44 percent edge on the question.

By mid-October, Obama leapt into a 52 percent to 43 percent lead but that edge has eroded since and the two are now tied. (By way of comparison, George W. Bush led John Kerry 53 percent to 41 percent when the Post/ABC asked the same question in June 2004.)

What the dead heat suggests is that it is literally impossible to predict how some sort of unforeseen event -- ranging from something as trivial as an impolitic comment to something as severe as a domestic terrorist attack -- would impact the race between Obama and McCain.

In other words: An "October Surprise" -- if it happens -- will have surprising (eh?) political consequences.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 30, 2008; 6:00 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008 , Parsing the Polls  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: The Obama Informercial: Good, Bad or Indifferent?
Next: Wag the Blog: Does Drudge Matter?

Comments

SURPRISE, SEN. MCCAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO WRESTLE AWAY THE ECONOMY ISSUE FROM SEN. OBAMA. Most people now rightly believe that Sen. McCain is better for our economy than Sen. Obama and rest of Democrats.

* If only Shawn Hannity, of Fox News, and rest of Republicans would concentrate on the economic issues and shut up about Joe the Plumber, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, then it's Pres. McCain on Nov 4.

BTW, most people now realize that Sen. Obama free candy economics is a ploy to get him elected.

Posted by: lazerboy | October 31, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Probably the only October Surprise that would make any difference at this point would be a terrorist attack. That would pivot the discussion back to national security, McCain's home turf.

Posted by: daniel14 | October 31, 2008 1:07 PM | Report abuse

The 2008 "October Surprise" has been a completely unexpected one: the Economy.

The stock market has been falling since its high last year above 15,000. Under the weight of bush/cheney/mccain deregulation, bush/cheney/mccain debt, bush/cheney/mccain war and bush/cheney/mccain financial mismangement, the United States' economy has practically died. Foreclosures are happening by the thousands every week! And. although many Democrats, including Obama and Biden, warned that this was coming, it **still** caught the greedy republican party with their pants down!

Posted by: dmmgba | October 31, 2008 12:23 AM | Report abuse

A REPUBLICAN HALLOWEEN TRADITION
THE OCTOBER SURPRISE

Race innuendos, terrorist stew
Rashid Khalidi video brew
No money left, do the sums
But something wicked this way comes

Palin opens her crooked mouth
To fan the hatred in the south
‘Kill him’ blurts from drunken gums
When something wicked this way comes

Joe the plumber McCain does seek
Maybe he had to take a leak
John just stood there looking dumb
Please, SOMEthing wicked this way come

October surprise has told the tale
THIS TIME EVIL is doomed to fail
Karl Rove schemed with his vile chums
But HOPE AT LAST this way comes

Bush has provided at least a partial surprise with his attack on Syria.
But opinion polls split crisis response evenly between Obama and McCain.
So the effect has no effect.

John McCain
Corporations First, Country Last.


Posted by: seems2me | October 30, 2008 8:26 PM | Report abuse

ddawd and popasmoke, thanx.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 30, 2008 7:05 PM | Report abuse

.


.

Voted One of the Top 5 Political Blogs for the Election of 2008

.


.


Bookmark It Now !!! 37th & O Street

.

.

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


.

.

.


.

Voted One of the Top 5 Political Blogs for the Election of 2008

.


.


Bookmark It Now !!! 37th & O Street

.

.

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 6:41 PM | Report abuse

McCain has alot to be worried about because now even Huckabee Hearts Obama?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YADwYU-phpI


See the latest Lies the GOP is trying to spread about Obama http://www.theobamaplan.com

Posted by: pastor123 | October 30, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

McCain has alot to be worried about because now even Huckabee Hearts Obama?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YADwYU-phpI


See the latest Lies the GOP is trying to spread about Obama http://www.theobamaplan.com

Posted by: pastor123 | October 30, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

"We are better than the tried,tested,and still 'accepted' practices of politics at its basest,but we cannot seem to relinquish its grip."

Obama supporter? That statement is paraphrased directly from Obama. Funny that Obama does not actually practice it. The smears the Obama campaign did on Hillary, Bill Clinton, and then Palin were all very 'old' politics. Obama just uses surrogates to do attack (like a mob boss). Most of what people like in Obama is a myth. We will see how he governs. I hope for the best, but I do not expect it.

Posted by: hdimig | October 30, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA WILL BE BEHIND IN 3 NATIONAL POLLS BY SATURDAY !!!!

Watch and see.

Halloween--Nightmare on Obama Street.

Posted by: JaxMax | October 30, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

It's funny how we,again,have come so far into this 'historic' campaign season only to reflect upon and to pursue the negative.The negative is always a bigger newsmaker...and it is the only remaining 'October surprise'.Positive tones and ideas are rejected and the scavengers seek a dead carcass somewhere.It's sad,people.We are better than the tried,tested,and still 'accepted' practices of politics at its basest,but we cannot seem to relinquish its grip.
Food for thought as we wind down this election cycle.
Election fatigue is setting up shop in my brain.See you on the other side of the election.Vaya con Dios.


Posted by: klowry57 | October 30, 2008 1:30 PM | Report abuse

It really looks like the American electorate will choose hope over fear, diplomacy over belligerence, and competence over parochialism in this election. Democrats will not win this election for Obama alone, however. I will be one of many Republicans and independent who also vote for Senator Obama.

After all his Chicken-Little "the sky-is-falling" warnings on one hand, and assertions that McCain will win after all, on the other, I wonder what 37th&OStreet will post here on November 5th if the American majority speaks, and elects Barrack Obama as President.

Posted by: Iconoblaster | October 30, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Better hurry up with that October surprise McLame.

Tomorrow is Halloween!!

...were you planning a November surprise?

When? Thanksgiving??

:-)

Posted by: toritto | October 30, 2008 11:51 AM | Report abuse
----------------------

There are things about the Mccain campaign that are inexplicable. After all the hoop-la, all the speeches, all the attacks, all the ad's, the only product that matters is "The Individual vote", nothing else matters. I have watched a dozen Mccain speeches and he "NEVER" say a word about getting out to vote, or getting your friends out to vote, volunteering, voting early, nothing. Nothing that actually has anything to do with getting a vote. From the beginning our end game has always been the "Get out the vote" drive.

Obama can do all the speeches he wants but if you want to win you have to say directly to the voter "VOTE FOR ME" and have a crew to make it happen. The Mccain campaign seems to have completely forgotten that part of the game, It is all for nothing if the people don't vote.

Now that things are going against Mccain, history tells us many Mccain voters will not show up now for a lost cause. I have never been to a lopsided football game where the losing teams fans didn't leave early to beat the traffic. It is really amazing just how bad the Mccain campaign is now that we see they have absolutely no end game at all.
How exactly did they think they were going to get people out to vote, wishing?

Posted by: popasmoke | October 30, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

October surprise?! Isn't it time for McCain to have a cancer checkup?

Posted by: AJ2008 | October 30, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

So where is Zook? Pennsylvania drew a +4 for Obama. That's the best poll that McCain has had in weeks. I'm surprised he isn't plastering it all over the place.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 30, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

MARK_IN_AUSTIN

not sure if you're still here
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

That site has the stats on early voting.

We have reached 14% of 2004's total vote In 2004, 22.5% of that year's voting was done early.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 30, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

I wish the candidate would discuss global poverty more. According to The Borgen Project:
$30 billion: Annual shortfall to end world hunger.
$540 billion: Annual U.S. Defense Budget.

Posted by: veronica5 | October 30, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

Better hurry up with that October surprise McLame.

Tomorrow is Halloween!!

...were you planning a November surprise?

When? Thanksgiving??

:-)

Posted by: toritto | October 30, 2008 11:51 AM | Report abuse

I just think McCain's too far down in too many states to pull off a Truman-esqe upset.

It's one thing to come from behind in NH. It's another to come back in multiple states. I just don't see it happening.
------
www.politicalwrestling.wordpress.com - PCW Extreme Political Satire. 5 days to PCW Extreme Election Night 2008

Posted by: politicalchampionshipwrestling | October 30, 2008 11:46 AM | Report abuse

McCain has the votes in the states in which he needs them - McCain will win the Electoral College - some demographics the bottom will fall out of Obama's numbers: seniors, white males, Catholics Italian and Irish. Hear that Chris???

.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse
-----------------

Over 30% have already voted and it is running for democrats 2 to 1 right now. So what are the republicans waiting for? The only October surprise is going to be republicans so disgusted with John Mccain they are not even going to bother going the polls. My wife right now is out driving voters to early vote. We are working harder right now then at any time in the campaign. I am sitting at two computers with four phones checking people registrations, telling them where to go vote, checking lines and waiting times at the different voting locations while I also have the printer running for get out to vote door hangers.

What did you do to get John Mccain elected? Did you give money? Did you knock on doors, make calls, get people out to vote, take people to the polls, register voters, address envelopes volunteer in any way? I have a feeling you did none of these. I have been at this for almost a year, this result is no accident.

It is people like you who just give lip service and do nothing that is the reason John Mccain will lose, and lose "BIG". We have an end game that is a "CRECHENDO" and you are seeing it now. We will be working till the polls close on Nov. 4th.

WHAT WILL YOU BE DOING ON NOV. 4th, WRITING HATE ON AN INTERNET BLOG?

Posted by: popasmoke | October 30, 2008 11:43 AM | Report abuse

it seems like the mccain campaign is trying to make the october surprise be the la times kerfluffle. if you read the report from the newspaper, though, it doesn't seem like there's anything scandalous on the tape. it sounds like barack obama is pro-israel (as he has always maintained) but that he was willing to listen and to be "challenged" by competing viewpoints. i think it was rabin who said you don't make peace with friends but rather with your unsavory mortal enemies. to obama's credit, he knows what his positions are but can listen to others and find a compromise.

at this point, if there's no surprise today or tomorrow, it's going to have to be pretty big to change people's minds.

Posted by: plathman | October 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Report abuse
--------------------

You can't even find the story anywhere on any of the news outlets today, not even in the archives. The story is bogus. It would be on the level of saying " I saw a tape of Jimmy Carter with "Yasir Arafat" and trying to create some inference from it.

When Mccain mentioned it on Larry King they broke in with a fact check and basically called Mccain a liar. If you would like you can find numerous pictures of Mccain with known communists on the net. He has visited viet nam and had communists visit his ranch in Arizona.

It was to deal with Mccains PTSD after viet nam. Mccain felt the need to travel to viet nam and to forgive his former enemies to get rid of his past mental demons. These include people who tortured and killed American POW's. Does this make Mccain a Communist?
No, but it does make him a hypocrite.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 30, 2008 11:22 AM | Report abuse

it seems like the mccain campaign is trying to make the october surprise be the la times kerfluffle. if you read the report from the newspaper, though, it doesn't seem like there's anything scandalous on the tape. it sounds like barack obama is pro-israel (as he has always maintained) but that he was willing to listen and to be "challenged" by competing viewpoints. i think it was rabin who said you don't make peace with friends but rather with your unsavory mortal enemies. to obama's credit, he knows what his positions are but can listen to others and find a compromise.

at this point, if there's no surprise today or tomorrow, it's going to have to be pretty big to change people's minds.

Posted by: plathman | October 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Report abuse
--------------------

You can't even find the story anywhere on any of the news outlets today, not even in the archives. The story is bogus. It would be on the level of saying " I saw a tape of Jimmy Carter with "Yasir Arafat" and trying to create some inference from it.

When Mccain mentioned it on Larry King they broke in with a fact check and basically called Mccain a liar. If you would like you can find numerous pictures of Mccain with known communists on the net. He has visited viet nam and had communists visit his ranch in Arizona.

It was to deal with Mccains PTSD after viet nam. Mccain felt the need to travel to viet nam and to forgive his former enemies to get rid of his past mental demons. These include people who tortured and killed American POW's. Does this make Mccain a Communist?
No, but it does make him a hypocrite.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 30, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

.

.

What will you Obama people do with your arrogance when you lose this election???


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:58 AM | Report abuse

The October surprise....2 things:
1) McCain practically killing his own campaign with his "I must return to Washington to save the bailout package" stunt. Not only did he NOT save the package, but it made him look too political and desperate.
2) "The fundamentals of our economy are strong"...... Enough said. Game over.

Posted by: lancelot113 | October 30, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse


.

.


McCain has the votes in the states in which he needs them - McCain will win the Electoral College - some demographics the bottom will fall out of Obama's numbers: seniors, white males, Catholics Italian and Irish. Hear that Chris???

.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse


.

.


McCain has the votes in the states in which he needs them - McCain will win the Electoral College - some demographics the bottom will fall out of Obama's numbers: seniors, white males, Catholics Italian and Irish. Hear that Chris???

.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:29 AM | Report abuse

Pretty weak premise by The Fix today. It is impossible to judge voter intent by asking 'who's more prepared to handle a crisis.' You also have to ask whether voters will change their vote on that assessment. The Fix also apparently assumes that ranking one candidate higher than the other also implies the 2nd candidate scores a zero, by comparison. Was there a survey response for 'both'? How about for 'either one is better than what we got'? The 'october surprise' stories are nothing more than a way to fill time until Nov 4th arrives.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 30, 2008 10:22 AM | Report abuse

The Obama surge begins:

After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 30, 2008 10:17 AM | Report abuse

.


.

The October Surprise Was Obama's Redistribution "Spread The Wealth" gaffe


.


.


Obama is not a uniter Obama is a divider


Obama gave $20,000.00 in one year to a RACIST church which believes there are separate value systems - one value system for "whites" and one value system for "blacks."


The worst is that Obama brought his children to this Church and exposed them to these HATE TEACHINGS - probably psychologically damaging his own children -


All so Obama could have the "poltical opportunity" of belonging to that Church?
How can you not be concerned about that?


How can anyone believe that Obama never heard any of these hate filled ideas when a 15 second visit to the Church's website revealed how RACIST it was?


BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY IS OUT THERE - JUST BECAUSE YOU IGNORE IT OR JUST BECAUSE YOU DECIDE TO OVERLOOK IT - THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT THAT BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY DOES NOT EXIST.


Remember that William Ayers in his manifesto for the Weather Underground in the 60s sought to create an alliance with the forces of BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY in order to disrupt America as we know it.


Do your research before you are so "proud" of some affirmative action guy.


You guys are sounding more and more like Joe Biden everyday.


If a white man said he was "proud" of Obama he would be called up for being condescending.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse

.


.

The October Surprise Was Obama's Redistribution "Spread The Wealth" gaffe


.


.


Obama is not a uniter Obama is a divider


Obama gave $20,000.00 in one year to a RACIST church which believes there are separate value systems - one value system for "whites" and one value system for "blacks."


The worst is that Obama brought his children to this Church and exposed them to these HATE TEACHINGS - probably psychologically damaging his own children -


All so Obama could have the "poltical opportunity" of belonging to that Church?
How can you not be concerned about that?


How can anyone believe that Obama never heard any of these hate filled ideas when a 15 second visit to the Church's website revealed how RACIST it was?


BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY IS OUT THERE - JUST BECAUSE YOU IGNORE IT OR JUST BECAUSE YOU DECIDE TO OVERLOOK IT - THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT THAT BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY DOES NOT EXIST.


Remember that William Ayers in his manifesto for the Weather Underground in the 60s sought to create an alliance with the forces of BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY in order to disrupt America as we know it.


Do your research before you are so "proud" of some affirmative action guy.


You guys are sounding more and more like Joe Biden everyday.


If a white man said he was "proud" of Obama he would be called up for being condescending.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse


.


.


Chris:


I will tell you what a swing state is now: New Jersey.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:05 AM | Report abuse


.


.


Chris:


I will tell you what a swing state is now: New Jersey.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 10:04 AM | Report abuse

EARLY VOTING IRREGULARITIES: THE REAL OCTOBER SURPRISE?

Could it be that the pundits can't see the forest for the trees?

More than a third of the votes cast this cycle will be on electronic voting systems, most of which do not produce a voter-verified paper trail.

Already, machine irregularities (such as vote-switching), along with machine shortages and long lines, could be skewing the vote tally.

A federal circuit court in Pennsylvania yesterday ruled that all polling places must have a supply of paper ballots in the event that machines on hand can't handle the volume of voters, and as a back up for machines machines that break down.

Are the pundits talking about this? Not so much. It's "process." It's boring. And it's also the way elections can be thrown -- silently, under the radar.

Early voting complicates exit polling, making such surveys less of a reliable check on the actual vote than in recent years.

Go rent the Robin Williams movie "Man of the Year" to see how it can be done, and what could be happening right now. Sometimes Hollywood scriptwriters act as society's early warning system with their cautionary tales... but is the message getting through?

What companies produce those machines? To whom did their executives make campaign contributions? Is anyone interested in finding out?

Funny... Chris Matthews appeared in that movie, but even he hasn't raised the specrtre of electronic voting as this year's variation on the October Surprise.

Is this the year of the "perfect" electoral crime? And who will ever know if it is?


WILL THE ELECTION EVEN MATTER? Not when government-supported "vigilante injustice" squads are "gang stalking" American citizens, making a mockery of the rule of law:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens
OR members.nowpublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 30, 2008 10:04 AM | Report abuse


.

.

The October Surprise Was Obama's Redistribution "Spread The Wealth" gaffe

.


.


Obama is not a uniter Obama is a divider


Obama gave $20,000.00 in one year to a RACIST church which believes there are separate value systems - one value system for "whites" and one value system for "blacks."


The worst is that Obama brought his children to this Church and exposed them to these HATE TEACHINGS - probably psychologically damaging his own children -


All so Obama could have the "poltical opportunity" of belonging to that Church?
How can you not be concerned about that?


How can anyone believe that Obama never heard any of these hate filled ideas when a 15 second visit to the Church's website revealed how RACIST it was?


BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY IS OUT THERE - JUST BECAUSE YOU IGNORE IT OR JUST BECAUSE YOU DECIDE TO OVERLOOK IT - THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT THAT BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY DOES NOT EXIST.


Remember that William Ayers in his manifesto for the Weather Underground in the 60s sought to create an alliance with the forces of BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY in order to disrupt America as we know it.


Do your research before you are so "proud" of some affirmative action guy.


You guys are sounding more and more like Joe Biden everyday.


If a white man said he was "proud" of Obama he would be called up for being condescending.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 9:59 AM | Report abuse

it seems like the mccain campaign is trying to make the october surprise be the la times kerfluffle. if you read the report from the newspaper, though, it doesn't seem like there's anything scandalous on the tape. it sounds like barack obama is pro-israel (as he has always maintained) but that he was willing to listen and to be "challenged" by competing viewpoints. i think it was rabin who said you don't make peace with friends but rather with your unsavory mortal enemies. to obama's credit, he knows what his positions are but can listen to others and find a compromise.

at this point, if there's no surprise today or tomorrow, it's going to have to be pretty big to change people's minds.

Posted by: plathman | October 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Report abuse

The surprise to me is that Arizona now looks like a swing state, with McCain polling only +5 over Obama. I wonder if it would be presumptuous for Obama to campaign over there.

Posted by: superaura | October 30, 2008 9:11 AM | Report abuse

The financial crisis and the failed vote on the bailout package killed McCain. That and some Palin gaffes (Tina Fey too). I don't know who would handle the economy better. Obama just rehashes Bill Clinton's economic populism (middle class tax cuts, increased financial aid, etc.). It is amusing that Obama could smear the man as a racist and then turn around and crib major portions of his 1992 campaign (Hope, Change, economic populism, etc). Don't count on Obama delivering. He will win based on the backlash against the Republicans. The financial crisis was the final straw. People will vote for Obama as a clean break from GWB who will go down as absolutely the worst and most devisive President in modern history (maybe Nixon was as bad, maybe). Obama will absolutely be the least experienced modern President. There is no doubt on that. Check on Wikipedia. All of the other former Presidents seem absolutely accomplished in comparison (even GWB). We are rolling the dice on someone who gives a pretty speech. Let us hope it works out.

Posted by: hdimig | October 30, 2008 9:06 AM | Report abuse

The financial crisis and the failed vote on the bailout package killed McCain. That and some Palin gaffes (Tina Fey too). I don't know who would handle the economy better. Obama just rehashes Bill Clinton's economic populism (middle class tax cuts, increased financial aid, etc.). It is amusing that Obama could smear the man as a racist and then turn around and crib major portions of his 1992 campaign (Hope, Change, economic populism, etc). Don't count on Obama delivering. He will win based on the backlash against the Republicans. The financial crisis was the final straw. People will vote for Obama as a clean break from GWB who will go down as absolutely the worst and most devisive President in modern history (maybe Nixon was as bad, maybe). Obama will absolutely be the least experienced modern President. There is no doubt on that. Check on Wikipedia. All of the other former Presidents seem absolutely accomplished in comparison (even GWB). We are rolling the dice on someone who gives a pretty speech. Let us hope it works out.

Posted by: hdimig | October 30, 2008 9:06 AM | Report abuse

The surprise to me is that Arizona now looks like a swing state, with McCain polling only +5 over Obama. I wonder if it would be presumptuous for Obama to campaign over there.

Posted by: superaura | October 30, 2008 9:06 AM | Report abuse

.


.


Obama is not a uniter Obama is a divider


Obama gave $20,000.00 in one year to a RACIST church which believes there are separate value systems - one value system for "whites" and one value system for "blacks."


The worst is that Obama brought his children to this Church and exposed them to these HATE TEACHINGS - probably psychologically damaging his own children -


All so Obama could have the "poltical opportunity" of belonging to that Church?
How can you not be concerned about that?


How can anyone believe that Obama never heard any of these hate filled ideas when a 15 second visit to the Church's website revealed how RACIST it was?


BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY IS OUT THERE - JUST BECAUSE YOU IGNORE IT OR JUST BECAUSE YOU DECIDE TO OVERLOOK IT - THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT THAT BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY DOES NOT EXIST.


Remember that William Ayers in his manifesto for the Weather Underground in the 60s sought to create an alliance with the forces of BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY in order to disrupt America as we know it.


Do your research before you are so "proud" of some affirmative action guy.


You guys are sounding more and more like Joe Biden everyday.


If a white man said he was "proud" of Obama he would be called up for being condescending.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 9:06 AM | Report abuse

The Fix is an appropriate name for this column. McCain is counting on the fix bring in to win this. He seems to tolerate vote fixing with the machines that flip democratic votes for republican ones.

Posted by: bigsmile | October 30, 2008 8:58 AM | Report abuse

Or maybe an October (November) surprise would come after most people have gotten comfy with their choices, and it would have no significant effect. A voter might trust one candidate marginally more in a "significant event" scenario, but it doesn't follow that the occurrence of such an event would override the voter's preference on all other issues.

Posted by: FlownOver | October 30, 2008 8:54 AM | Report abuse

Sorry for the multiple posts. There seems to be something wrong with the website

Posted by: RickJ | October 30, 2008 8:51 AM | Report abuse

Infomercial was excellent.

Obama still rocking the electoral college.

Shep on Fox defends Obama and disses joePlumber.

And Drudge's viewers are way down.

A good morning.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 30, 2008 8:50 AM | Report abuse

As pointed out, early voting has already started in many states and turnout has been brisk, so it's unclear what, if any, effect a 'surprise' will have. In some respects, we've already had a surprise with the economic meltdown which allowed Obama to greatly enhance his stature with his response (and conversely allow McCain to damage his..)

I don't think any 'surprise' will change things much at this point. The economy is still front and center on people's minds.

Posted by: RickJ | October 30, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

As pointed out, early voting has already started in many states and turnout has been brisk, so it's unclear what, if any, effect a 'surprise' will have. In some respects, we've already had a surprise with the economic meltdown which allowed Obama to greatly enhance his stature with his response (and conversely allow McCain to damage his..)

I don't think any 'surprise' will change things much at this point. The economy is still front and center on people's minds.

Posted by: RickJ | October 30, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

As pointed out, early voting has already started in many states and turnout has been brisk, so it's unclear what, if any, effect a 'surprise' will have. In some respects, we've already had a surprise with the economic meltdown which allowed Obama to greatly enhance his stature with his response (and conversely allow McCain to damage his..)

I don't think any 'surprise' will change things much at this point. The economy is still front and center on people's minds.

Posted by: RickJ | October 30, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

As pointed out, early voting has already started in many states and turnout has been brisk, so it's unclear what, if any, effect a 'surprise' will have. In some respects, we've already had a surprise with the economic meltdown which allowed Obama to greatly enhance his stature with his response (and conversely allow McCain to damage his..)

I don't think any 'surprise' will change things much at this point. The economy is still front and center on people's minds.

Posted by: RickJ | October 30, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

popasmoke, How do you know the early voting split? I agree that early voting dampens the effect of any "surprise", which was your point, but I am curious as to your source for the vote split.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 30, 2008 8:31 AM | Report abuse
----------------

It has been reported on most of the news stations. I don't think they are doing anything like exit polls but they know what registration the voters were who voted. It seems like they should not be reporting anything period.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 30, 2008 8:36 AM | Report abuse

popasmoke, How do you know the early voting split? I agree that early voting dampens the effect of any "surprise", which was your point, but I am curious as to your source for the vote split.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 30, 2008 8:31 AM | Report abuse

popasmoke, How do you know the early voting split? I agree that early voting dampens the effect of any "surprise", which was your point, but I am curious as to your source for the vote split.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 30, 2008 8:30 AM | Report abuse

.


.


Obama is not a uniter Obama is a divider


Obama gave $20,000.00 in one year to a RACIST church which believes there are separate value systems - one value system for "whites" and one value system for "blacks."


The worst is that Obama brought his children to this Church and exposed them to these HATE TEACHINGS - probably psychologically damaging his own children -


All so Obama could have the "poltical opportunity" of belonging to that Church?
How can you not be concerned about that?


How can anyone believe that Obama never heard any of these hate filled ideas when a 15 second visit to the Church's website revealed how RACIST it was?


BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY IS OUT THERE - JUST BECAUSE YOU IGNORE IT OR JUST BECAUSE YOU DECIDE TO OVERLOOK IT - THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT THAT BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY DOES NOT EXIST.


Remember that William Ayers in his manifesto for the Weather Underground in the 60s sought to create an alliance with the forces of BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY in order to disrupt America as we know it.


Do your research before you are so "proud" of some affirmative action guy.


You guys are sounding more and more like Joe Biden everyday.

If a white man said he was "proud" of Obama he would be called up for being condescending.

.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 8:13 AM | Report abuse

Voting has already started with maybe 30% in early voting states having already voted. It is already showing that the early voting is almost 2 to 1 democratic. Nothing can change the final out come now. No external event would bring more voters to Mccain. A majority have already decided Obama has passed the test and Mccain has not evidenced by his actions in the financial crises. There is no reason to believe Mccain would respond any better in a different crises.
We had thee 3am call so to speak and got a chance to see them both in action. Watching Mccain run around like a crazy man and thinking he could possible be the next president was down right scary.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 30, 2008 8:08 AM | Report abuse

Maverick Personality Disorder:

http://tinyurl.com/5ggtte

Posted by: caraprado1 | October 30, 2008 8:00 AM | Report abuse

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 30, 2008 6:53 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company