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Pick a President: The Fix Picks UPDATED

With the conventions now behind us and the sprint to November already underway, The Fix thought today was as good a time as any to update our "Pick a President" electoral map.

The last time we made our predictions, we came out with 278 electoral votes for Barack Obama and 246 for John McCain.

In our newest predictions, we had it at 269 electoral votes for Obama and 249 for McCain with Ohio (yes, Ohio!) staring us in the face. Ultimately we put Ohio in Obama's category, giving him 289 electoral votes to 249 for McCain but man was it ever a tough decision. (The full map -- and this time we remembered to fill in Hawaii and Alaska -- is below.)

You can compete against The Fix -- and other political junkies across the country and all over the world -- by filling out your own map. Then send your picks -- via a dedicated url -- to your friends and, if you happen to have a blog (and who doesn't these days), you can embed your map there to show off your political skillz. (Notice hip spelling of "skills.")

At stake? A $500 gift card from Best Buy and, more importantly, the unmatched approval of Fixistas the world over. There are already more than 2,000 entries, but for an election as historic as this one that number should be WAY higher. Come on people! Get to it!

One caveat before we get to the new Fix map: These picks are based entirely on polling in the states, reporting with state operatives and a study of past electoral history. They are not reflective of the Fix's personal preferences -- of which we have none.

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election and enter to win a $500 prize.</p>

By Chris Cillizza  |  September 9, 2008; 6:38 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
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Next: Obama On The Losing End of Personality Contest

Comments

Right on!

Posted by: rljmsilver | September 11, 2008 9:28 AM | Report abuse

Chris,

As I point out in this post (http://progressivenation.org/?p=32), New Hampshire is emphatically NOT in play.

Posted by: mschmdt73 | September 10, 2008 10:49 PM | Report abuse

I'm with Dawn (and others) who are concerned that Palin is being cast as 'Super Mom', even though she believes a rape victim who becomes pregnant should be forced by the government to carry the offspring of the rapist.

Haven't we all had enough of Taliban-style fundamentalism? Or is it just the "other-guys'" fundamentalism we object to?

Posted by: Iconoblaster | September 10, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Notice that even if you give Ohio to McCain, (a serious possibility) and don't give NH to Obama (another likely outcome), and don't flip any of the other swing states in play for Dems, it would be a tie at 269-269. Obama would then become president as Democrats control 27 state delegations to the House, with 21 being held by Republicans and 2 being tied.

Posted by: Adam | September 10, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

.

.


OBAMA LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT-WEIGHT NEXT TO JOE BIDEN. The democratic party superdelegates, in their rush to make a Presidential choice motivated more by affirmative action than qualifications, have completely destroyed the democratic party's chances this year.


superdelegates.


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


The democratic party had two excellent candidates to choose from: Joe Biden and Chris Dodd - their contributions starved both for cash and the voters IGNORED ALL CONSIDERATION OF ACTUAL QUALIFICATIONS and picked Obama with Hillary second.


The democrats have only themselves to blame for fielding a weak candidate.


Actually Obama is a pathetic candidate - no experience in foreign policy - Obama has built a career on MAXING OUT EVERY AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PROGRAM HE COULD FIND UNTIL HE TURNED THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY DELEGATE SELECTION PROCESS INTO AN AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PROGRAM IN MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA.


The democratic party did it to themselves.


McCain is the stronger candidate - the people around him are brilliant - they put on an excellent convention which propelled McCain and Palin ahead in the polls by five points.


Obama's convention was horrible, it was a strain to watch the hillary-bill saga play out again.


How the Conventions are managed is important - McCain gets an A+++ and Obama gets a B- or C+.

Seriously Chris - McCain is the stronger candidate and he is extremely more qualified to be President - to vote for the other guy is to risk this nation's national security with some inexperienced affirmative-action guy who shouldn't even be in Washington.


Seriously Chris - this election is out of hand - the liberals are attempting to force a horrible candidate on the nation in order to satisfy their affirmative action agenda - instead of actually evaluating who is the better candidate and who is most qualified to lead this nation in dangerous times.

.

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 10, 2008 5:59 AM | Report abuse

As Marshall McLuhan stated, the medium is the message. JFK proved that in 1960 at the famous Nixon/Kennedy debates. Those who watched on television believed that Kennedy had won, those who listened on the radio believed that Nixon had won.
Why?
The answer is simple: Kennedy was tan, young and strikingly handsome. He oozed charisma and style. He was a classy guy.

Nixon had a pallid complexion, perspired and appeared awkward and stiff. Let's face it: up against JFK he failed in the looks category.

As it stands, Obama has the edge in appearance looks, and charisma. And like Kennedy, he is much smarter than his opponent.

Right now, we live in a predominately visual world, particularly true of those who are misinformed and thinking challenged.

The medium really is the message.
Obama has and will maintain the edge.
It isn't about the VPs.

Posted by: Daisy | September 10, 2008 12:38 AM | Report abuse

37th&OStreet,
YOU'RE one of THOSE people!!!
I knew I would find one some day. Obama trys to stay above this sh*t and people want him to attack. The Democrats attack, and people say "he's been thrown off message!"
SO?
WHAT ABOUT THE ISSUES???
What are McCain and Palin going to do about the economy?? It may not look like a depression to you - I mean, McCain's guy Phil Gramm say's it's all in our heads - you know - we're a nation of whiners?? That's your ticket. That's what you want?
You MUST make more than 250K a year.
There is no other reason to vote Repiblican this year than to save your own ass.
If you care about our country, get over race and religion - this is about governing our country!
By picking Palin do you think McCain was thinking "country first"??
HELL NO..he was thinking...how do I get those crazy right wing James Dobson people to vote for me?"
Well, he's gotcha now. But WHY? Bush fooled you twice - shame on you. Now you're going to be fooled a third time???

Posted by: CrazyMe | September 9, 2008 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 9, 2008 8:09 PM | Report abuse

Waiting.... waiting..... I'm WAITING for Sarah Palin to just SAY ONE UNSCRIPTED WORD!!!! It has been 12 days! 12 days and nary a peep out of Palin that hasn't been read from a teleprompter!!! Let's see if she has the GUTS to hold a MSM press conference just like every other unknown VP candidate has done in the last 40 years! (and most, within DAYS of their selection!) Even poor Dan Quayle held one the next day after he was chosen by Bush 41!!! LOL!!! Can't Sarah talk off the top of her head? Is she afraid she'll have to defend "Iraq is God's Plan" - or maybe explain why she wants CREATIONISM taught in PUBLIC schools - or discuss her views on BANNING LIBRARY BOOKS???? Can't wait to hear Sarah UNSCRIPTED!!! What's the matter? Don't the good ole GOP boys running the McCain campaign have any CONFIDENCE in their pick?? Seems like male chauvinism at work here. LET SARAH SPEAK!!! We want a SUBSTANTIVE NEWS CONFERENCE - not a fluff piece by Charlie Gibson. If she is so terrified and afraid to hold A MSM PRESS CONFERENCE, how on earth could she stand up to Putin, if necessary??


Posted by: Carol | September 9, 2008 8:04 PM | Report abuse

mccain hasnt had a press confernce eitheir palin that scare me because it sounds like they holding back on something. on the news today bush said he gonna release 8000 troops to afganistan so people tell me if the surge is working why not send more troops to afganistan and mccain wanna follow the same tactics of the bush administration something smells fishey here because osama bin laden been on the run for 7yrs in we still or fighting in iraq and mccain always trying to munipulate people so we can stay in iraq but still out their saying the surge work what the republican party are cowards or something. thats why im voteing obama/biden because they show the strenght to go after these 9/11 killers my mother die in that building mccain tell me my mother die for nothing come on what are yall hiding from the american people

Posted by: kessa | September 9, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

TALK ABOUT BEING OFF MESSAGE


OBAMA WAS SUPPOSED TO BE TALKING ABOUT BRINGING AMERICA TO THE "NEW POLITICS." OBAMA WAS SUPPOSED TO BE "THE ONE" TO SHOW AMERICA THE WAY.


Running scared and worried, message thrown aside, Obama is making mistakes


Quotes from Politico today below:


IT IS ABSOLUTELY UNBELIEVABLE HOW THROWN-OFF THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN IS RIGHT NOW - COMPLETELY OFF MESSAGE AND REELING - IS THIS HOW OBAMA WOULD RESPOND IN A NATIONAL SECURITY CRISIS ???

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

QUOTES FROM POLITICO ENCLOSED BELOW:


"Barack Obama and his Democratic allies are intensifying their attacks on Sarah Palin, as her sustained and surprising central role in this race is upending Obama’s strategy and often overshadowing McCain.

Democratic Congressman Russ Carnahan on Tuesday – introducing Joe Biden at a campaign event – ripped into Palin’s record and punctuated it with this snarky jab. “There’s no way you can dress up that record, even with a lot of lipstick,” he said. Obama himself used similar langauge later in the day about the McCain-Palin reform rhetoric, saying "You can put lipstick on a pig," he said. "It's still a pig."

Former New York Mayor Ed Koch, as part of his endorsement of Obama, said Palin “scares the hell out of me.” And Obama hit Palin in nearly a dozen different press releases – one day after drawing laughs at a campaign stop by calling her a “moose shooter.”

It isn’t just Democratic officials who are fixated on Palin. Media outlets on the left – from Talking Points Memo to Huffington Post – are loaded with hard-hitting stories about Palin. McCain often seems like he’s playing second fiddle."

.

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 9, 2008 7:18 PM | Report abuse

This Palin "newness curiosity factor" will fade quickly as we hear more and more about what she really stands for on the ISSUES! I think these women who are now flocking to Palin's side are NOT former Hillary supporters, but rather GOP and Independent CULTURALLY CONSERVATIVE women who supported Huckabee, Romney, etc. in the primaries, or who are just not that interested in politics, and who were not that enamored with McCain before! I support Obama/Biden. My best friend was an ARDENT backer of HILLARY here in Ohio and now is enthusiastically for Obama and Biden! There is NO WAY - NO WAY - that ANY WOMAN who really BELIEVED in the ISSUES that HILLARY stood for could POSSIBLY VOTE FOR MCCAIN and PALIN!!! NO WAY!!!! The ISSUES are just too important! A woman's right to choose, equal pay, the future of the Supreme Court, the Iraq war, stem cell research, health care, the economy, etc. (and, btw, we are in our mid-50s!!)


Posted by: Rita | September 9, 2008 6:22 PM | Report abuse

Chris' latest map has the Gore map rather than the Kerry map as the underlying template, with Iowa and New Mexico going D and New Hampshire going R, as in 2000. These were the 3 states which "flipped" in 2004. If all Gore states go for Obama, you have 260 electoral votes, then if you add only Colorado among the swing states that is 269 for Obama, which then throws the vote into the House. It's hard not to see Obama getting at least 260 electoral votes---the question is how to get to 270. The 5 current true tossup states are Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Obama needs to take two of the five.

Posted by: OHIO CITIZEN | September 9, 2008 6:04 PM | Report abuse

Chris,
The most interesting subplot of your latest map is that if Ohio goes for McCain, you have an electoral tie: 269-269. Wouldn't that be something!

Posted by: Pat C. | September 9, 2008 4:40 PM | Report abuse

What everyone is forgetting is that McCain and Obama are

1) Not the only ones running. There is a real chance of Ron Paul being another Ralph Nader, but for McCain.
During the primaries for example:
McCain Paul
Maine 21% 19%
Alaska 16% 17%
Idaho 70% 24%
Montana 75% 21%
N. Dakota 23% 21%
S. Dakota 70% 17%
Oregon 85% 15%
New Mexico 86% 14%
Minnesota 22% 16%
Nevada 13% 14%
Penns. 73% 16%

Now, McCain's number will change given that he is the only one now and with Gov. Palin on the ticket. However Paul's might grow as well with the fighting going on with the two camps. His is a very loyal following not likely to leave for either party. McCain should have been nicer to Paul during his convention.

2)The poll of polls might have McCain in the lead, but the electoral college does not. With all the states (that are leaning toward Obama) he only needs 27 votes to become pres. McCain needs 86 (and he has most of the states), so it's coming down to the wire. It's actually a good thing Obama is not in the lead. It scared me when he was b/c I was worried it was a "bradley effect" going on too.

Posted by: Nikki | September 9, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

Strange as this is to say: I agree completely!!!

At this point in time, meaning if the election were held today, I think that map is spot on without one single change.

And, I think that by election day Obama will have NH, Indiana, Montana, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida. Perhaps Georgia and North Dakota too.

Why? Palin is already losing steam with her continued lies about the bridge to nowhere and now with the per diem problem. Out of all the things I know about Palin, the per diem thing is probably the least of my worries and will probably be the thing that brings her down because people can relate to it and see what an hypocrite she is.

Posted by: Peninsula Matt | September 9, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for your info, Jon Morgan.

FYI here's a link to "no tossups" electoral map at Realclearpolitics.com. It shows Obama up by 8 electoral votes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

I'm terrified that people think that a theocrat who believes girls who are raped should be forced to have those babies is "an American Super Mom." What are you smoking?

Posted by: Dawn | September 9, 2008 3:13 PM | Report abuse

CO and NM should not be Obama's and Virginia should not be McCain's.

They are all toss-ups.

Jersey John

Posted by: Jersey John | September 9, 2008 2:57 PM | Report abuse

Tick, tock, tick, tock......TWELVE DAYS and counting without a SINGLE UNSCRIPTED WORD FROM SARAH!!! Tick, tock, tick, tock..... And does ANYONE think good ole softy Charlie Gibson is going to ask any TOUGH questions? Or that PART OF THEIR DEAL was that Sarah could not be asked any questions without being told AHEAD of time what the questions would be?? WHEN WILL PALIN PUT HERSELF BEFORE A LIVE PRESS CONFERENCE BEFORE MULTIPLE REPORTERS LIKE QUAYLE and FERRARO DID WITHIN TWO DAYS of their selection??? Tick, tock, tick, tock.... TWELVE DAYS and counting....


Posted by: Debra | September 9, 2008 2:54 PM | Report abuse

This election has nothing to do with issues or popularity polls but rather the actual candidate that bumps off a mutual opponent wins in November.

Apparently this mutual opponent exposed corruption within both parties and is now targeted to be bumped off.

The questions are...

1. Will the GOP use Guiliani-like mob-ties like his protege Bernard Kerik who may be doing 140 years of jail time for it?

2. Will the DEMS use an OJ Simpson-like person with a record and may be doing jail time in near future?

3. Will both parties engage in sweetheart exchange deals where these convicted felons do the actual dirty work of bumping off mutual opponent in exchange for lesser jail time and candidates/parties are never suspected in public?

4. Given that this truth is revealed, should we begin to worry about the general safety of our families where ever we are in public or private? For example, do we have to worry about traveling on Port Authority buses from NJ to NYC tonight? Or tomorrow?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 9, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

That's a good point, AsperGirl. Among pollsters in general, Zogby has ALWAYS been an outlier. When I worked for Paul Wellstone in 2002, we saw them find us trailing by 9 points, and then leading by 6 (a 15 point swing), within the space of 2-3 weeks in the fall. That simply was impossible, and we discounted both polls.

Also, I think the automated polls like Rasmussen and Survey USA have to be considered separately from the staffed ones like Gallup does. Whatever the advantages or shortcomings of either, I don't think they do quite the same thing.

Near here in Canada, PM Harper just called October federal elections. Polling in Canada is different but also very interesting. They have fewer pollsters of course, and some seem to have histories of favoring one party or another. Also, Canada if not all parliamentary democracies has a history of swinging wildly in short periods of time. Right now, the Conservatives seem headed for a huge win (about 60% of seats in the House of Commons). But I'd venture the Oct. 14 results could give the Tories as few as 40% of the seats.

Posted by: Jon Morgan | September 9, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Lehman Brothers is next to go.

Here come the Republican "free market" hoards to the rescue of the bankers!!! (play the cavalry music)

Posted by: toritto | September 9, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

Byron @ 12:05,
Try Swampland at time.com. Generally a pretty savvy group of commenters. Occasional troll but mostly good stuff.

Posted by: gingerpye | September 9, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Jon Morgan, thanks for the link. When there is a big outlier, I like to look for trends. I.e. if some "Joe Blow" poll says something others don't, I look back at past "Joe Blow" polls and just look at the shift, or delta, between the past results and the present, and reject the baseline. While that might be representative only if you assume that the shift itself is not limited to opinion movement in a sub-class of people, it helps avoid some of the problems, the poller in the interview mentioned, like questionnaire design.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 2:16 PM | Report abuse

In general, I trust polls; they are more or less scientific, and as a politics major in college I learned about how they're done and why they're reliable--though of course they can only be good as their methods. Since 2000, I'd thought the pollsters had corrected for the problem of cell-phone only people. But this weekend, NPR's "On the Media" had a longtime Gallup pollster giving some poignant critiques of polling methods and uses. (http://www.onthemedia.org/transcripts/2008/09/05/02) After hearing this segment, I'm less confident than ever that we're getting representative samples of who actually votes. The number of cell-phone only people is growing rapidly (I've become one since 2004), and the youth support and new registration is a major factor this year that's very difficult to poll for. I highly recommend listening to the linked segment above.

Posted by: Jon Morgan | September 9, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Having grown up in a small town, I personally am turned off by Sarah Palin's "story" and personality, having known many people just like her and not caring for them; however, I can't deny that for many people, she is an appealing character.

From my point of view, I don't want a President of Vice President who is "just like me." I want someone who is better than me. I want someone with a great intellect. Someone who is of the world. Someone who has a greater life experience than me and my small circle of family and friends. The election of the nation's leaders is not a popularity contest. We are not electing officers for Student Council.

What gets me is that McCain has for months now pounded Obama for his inexperience and for being an unknown and then offers up a VP candidate who is open to the same charges. It smacks of political opportunism. I don't think that those on the right get that liberals, democrats, what have you, are not necessarily opposed to Governor Palin because we think that she is not up for the job, but because she is a symbol of what we view as the hypocrisy of the McCain campaign. If you dig down deep enough, it isn't really about her, it is about the greater issue of McCain saying one thing and doing another. But that is just my opinion. I'm sure others will disagree.

Posted by: anonymoose | September 9, 2008 1:49 PM | Report abuse

How accurate are all the polls, though? No one's talking about the "Bradley Effect" in which significant numbers of people don't want to sound racist when answering pollsters questions, leading to the underperformance of minority candidates on election day. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect)

Will we find ourselves minting a new term, the "McCain Effect," in which people tell pollsters that they're willing to vote for a 70-something candidate?

This is a first-of-its-kind presidential election.

Posted by: dognabbit | September 9, 2008 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Looking more closely at the polling data in light of one poll showing Obama's support among white women moving from being 8 points up to 12 points down, post-Palin.

You can look at the plots of the RCP averages and see whether the recent moves are due to (1) Obama's numbers dropping while McCain's move up or (2) Obama & McCain's numbers moving up both at the same time, but McCain's moving up more.

That would help show if McCain's recent uptick against Obama was coming by robbing white women from Obama's previous support or by mostly "undecideds" getting on board.

The first below list shows that in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire (and possibly other states), the uptick in McCain's average numbers are coinciding with a drop in Obama's average, which implies that McCain's uptick is coming (at least in part) from people (white women?) who are moving from Obama to McCain.

The second below list shows that in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida, both candidates have shown rising averages (but except for FL McCain's rise is greater than Obama's). The foregoing list, by the way, can be referred to as "Appalachia" plus Florida.

So there does appear to be movement from Obama to McCain, i.e. an increase in support for McCain that robs Obama (white women?).

But Obama's numbers also look to be flat in the great lakes states & NH, while he has seen a significant uptick that is sticking in Appalachia and Florida. He may be experiencing a permanent "Biden bump" or "Clinton endorsement bump" in those states where he may have been distrusted and support had been withheld from him on that basis.


States in which McCain's uptick coincides with Obama's average dropping:

Michigan (www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_mccain_vs_obama-553.html)

Wisconsin
(www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_mccain_vs_obama-549.html)

New Hampshire
(www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_mccain_vs_obama-195.html)


States in which McCain's uptick coincides with Obama's average rising (just not rising as much as McCain's)

Ohio (www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html)

Pennsylvania (www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html)

Virginia (www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html)

Florida (www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html)

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Angry won't do it--waste of breath.

Bring On The Debates.

Posted by: Sowega | September 9, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Chris, wondering what your rationale is for giving NH to McCain?

Posted by: Jon Morgan | September 9, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

"Before the Democratic National Convention in late August, Obama held an 8 percentage point lead among white women voters, 50 percent to 42 percent, but after the Republican convention in early September, McCain was ahead by 12 points among white women, 53 percent to 41 percent, the poll found."

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN097920080909

Yeah, Obama's going to have to try to go after Palin, big time.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 1:32 PM | Report abuse

This is looking a lot like a dead on tie.

Something big has to happen; neither candidate can afford to be entrenched for the next few weeks. They're going to have to come out and engage in proactive strategies.

Look for more sudden moves, strategic moves, offensive plays, interesting ad strategies, etc.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 1:17 PM | Report abuse

How about give OH to McCain and NH to Obama -- O still wins.

Posted by: HonestAbe | September 9, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

The last poll taken in Ohio has McCain with a significant lead; so, it seams giving it to Obama is nothing more than wishful thinking on your part.

Posted by: info | September 9, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

This election should not even be close, John McBush is the dumbest guy to ever run for POTUS, & Sarah Palin is the biggest religious kook to ever be on a ticket....

Sadly, this country thinks the presidential election is "American Idol", lets vote for the crackpot from Alaska because she eats mooseburgers, plays basketball, etc....Can we possibly be more superficial....Maybe next campaign stop, crazy Sarah should break out & sing "Somewhere over the Rainbow" drive the kool-aid drinking Republican crowd crazy....

Sometimes, I really am embarassed to be an American....If you elect McBush & crazy Sarah, you can have the country, I'll move to Europe...

Posted by: Michael | September 9, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Most of the electoral map data comes from old state polls that are now outdated since the conventions were held. Below is some information about current RCP averages for some states and also new polls from close states that were conducted this week.

Really close numbers in RCP average for state polls:

New Hampshire (4) - Obama +0.3
Virginia (13) ----- McCain +0.7
Colorado (9) ------ Obama +1.0
Nevada (5) -------- McCain +1.0
Ohio (20) --------- McCain +1.3
Florida (27) ------ McCain +2.6
Michigan (17)------ Obama +2.8
Pennsylvania (21) - Obama +4.7
Wisconsin (10) ---- Obama +5.3
Washington (11) --- Obama +9.7


"In play" State polls posted this week:

Florida
FOX News/Rasmussen --- Tie

Michigan
Strategic Vision (R) - Obama +1
PPP (D) -------------- Obama +1

Pennsylvania
FOX News/Rasmussen --- Obama +2

Virginia
FOX News/Rasmussen --- McCain +2
SurveyUSA ------------ McCain +2

Colorado
FOX News/Rasmussen --- Obama +3

Wisconsin
Strategic Vision (R) - Obama +3

Washington
SurveyUSA ------------ Obama +4

Ohio
FOX News/Rasmussen --- McCain +7


As the batch of polls from this week show, Obama's polling below his RCP average in all of these states, except for the states of Florida and Colorado, which appear to have moved in Obama's direction.

Florida, accord. to the Fox/Rassmussen poll, is a tie now.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 12:54 PM | Report abuse

>>Peter Zenger wrote: "Let's say that we grant Ohio to McCain, that would be a 269-269 tie. No wonder that Obama is choosing to compete everywhere, including the Nebraska 2nd congressional district."

You're right, my mistake. It swings Cillizza's map by 20, not 40 electoral votes.

>>"If Obama can take Omaha, that could be a decider. 270-268 - Obama."

Obama has a lot of strength in the corn states because he's a corn ethanol biofuels advocate, and that program is basically high $$ corn country corporate welfare. It's how he won Iowa. It wouldn't surprise me if he scores an upset in some corn growing states this year. Omaha sounds plausible. But Nebraska as a whole seems to be consistently double digits for McCain.

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Byron, I've been feeling the same way. I want objective, thoughtful analysis. But I don't get much of that here any more (except from Chris, himself).

Bush mentioned the "Angry Left" in his RNC video. Well, judging from the postings here at The Fix, there's also an "Angry Right."

Posted by: dognabbit | September 9, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

This blog was interesting when Chris was helping us gain information on the probable vice presidential picks.

Now, the blog is less interesting, and the comments have, for the most part, become outrageous. For every rational, reasonable comment there seem to be ten or more that are nothing more than bias raving.

I no longer care to try to scan through the lunatic comments trying to find the few sensible, fair ones. I'm through with this site.

Does anyone know a site which honestly has sensible, thoughtful, fair, fact-based comments?

Posted by: Byron | September 9, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

"Because you're such a liar making false statements about everything I post, I included a link to my post. Shut up and read the link instead of bothering me. And the Fox contracted the poll from Rasmussen, one of the top firms in the field."

I did read the link. I challenge you to rebut the fact that you cherry-picked the poll most favorable to your candidate du jour, and offer you the opportunity to deny the polls that show an Obama lead in Ohio.

You can lie to us, but you can't lie to yourself. Please post a hate piece that details time Obama spent in a madras in Pakistan.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 9, 2008 11:53 AM | Report abuse

>>bondjedi wrote: "Asspergirl - Do you think no one checks the links you are posting? You omitted the other polls at RCP that have Obama winning in Ohio, and the 7 point lead you are touting is the only one outside the margin of error (and wildly so), and (predictably) it's the FOX poll."

Because you're such a liar making false statements about everything I post, I included a link to my post. Shut up and read the link instead of bothering me. And the Fox contracted the poll from Rasmussen, one of the top firms in the field.

In response to your post attacking mine by lying about my post, I will add the following:

YET ANOTHER BARACK BLOOPER OF THE TYPE:
WHAT RELIGION AM I AND WHAT DO I BELIEVE?

BARACK OBAMA SAYS: "MY MUSLIM FAITH"

IN an interview of Obama on September 7, George Stephanopolous asked Obama about his accusations that the McCain campaign are going to accuse him of being Muslim. Obama goes into a 2 minute answer that includes the blooper "my Muslim faith".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUYHFlGb2Ng&feature=iv

At minute 1:34 Stephanopolous asks Obama about why he makes accusations that the McCain campaign is going to accuse him of being Muslim, when the McCain has condemned people making those accusations.

At minute 2:49 Obama says: "You're absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Muslim faith."

George Stephanopolous steps in and corrects him to say "Christian faith" and then Obama agrees and says "Christian faith". But then what Obama was going to say doesn't make sense anymore because that would be, "You're absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Christian faith."

Obama then has to spend the next 15 seconds regrouping to make a point ("John McCain has not suggested I was a Muslim.")

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 11:45 AM | Report abuse

I read a lot of griping on this blog.

Why don't some of you try a few of the following suggestions...(I have):

"If you find faults with our country, make it a better one. If you're disappointed with the mistakes of government, join its ranks and work to correct them. Enlist in our armed forces. Become a teacher. Enter the ministry. Run for public office. Feed a hungry child. Teach an illiterate adult to read. Comfort the afflicted. Defend the rights of the oppressed. Our country will be the better, and you will be the happier. Because nothing brings greater happiness in life than to serve a cause greater than yourself."

-John S. McCain

Posted by: Brian | September 9, 2008 11:43 AM | Report abuse

kingofzouk: In sandlot baseball, a tie may go to the runner, but in the EC this year, a tie goes to Obama. 269-269 throws the election into the House where each state gets one vote and you need 26 votes to win. Unless you think the Republicans can regain control of the House (no chance), Obama will win a contingency election. The Dems control approx 30 state delegations currently. McC needs 270, Obama needs 269 in this election.

Posted by: Rabram | September 9, 2008 11:34 AM | Report abuse

I believe in a tie the decision goes to the house for a vote in which case Obama wins.

Posted by: sltiowa | September 9, 2008 11:32 AM | Report abuse

Better yet we don't have to worry about having another "BUSH" in the white house so to speek. It seems Pilin likes Brazilian waxes according to a local shop who is talking. Amazing what people will tell you when you pay them


==========
This is a waste of time. Why aren't you talking about important issues, like Sarah Palin's hair?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 9, 2008 10:54 AM

Posted by: "Enquiring minds want to know" | September 9, 2008 11:26 AM | Report abuse

Asspergirl - Do you think no one checks the links you are posting? You omitted the other polls at RCP that have Obama winning in Ohio, and the 7 point lead you are touting is the only one outside the margin of error (and wildly so), and (predictably) it's the FOX poll. Chris' pick is right on.

Please cut and paste something from a hateblog in response. How about one of your classics: Obama's forged birth certificate.

Posted by: bondjedi | September 9, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

I got a serious question:

Will Johnnie boy re-institute the draft??

I like the lottery system best - that way even rich kids get snared.

Posted by: toritto | September 9, 2008 11:01 AM | Report abuse

I think the prediction is spot on except for Ohio. If you flip these votes the total becomes 269 to 269. then what?

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 9, 2008 10:59 AM | Report abuse

" Hey Dubbya! We are gonna change your policies, create a new GOP and shake up Washington! ... except for the wars, health care, tax cuts for the wealthy, tax cuts for corporations, energy policy, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, supreme court nominations, choice, spying on Americans, Gitmo, torture, habeas corpus, politicizing the Justice Department, etc.

Your policies are over Dubbya! Sarah and I are gonna change everything!!

....yea right. I just fell off the turnip truck.

Posted by: toritto | September 9, 2008 10:59 AM | Report abuse

This is a waste of time. Why aren't you talking about important issues, like Sarah Palin's hair?

Posted by: Anonymous | September 9, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse

From "Businessweek":
"
"Stacy Williams owns a three-bedroom house with a full basement and central air-conditioning in a quiet neighborhood on the upper west side of Youngstown, Ohio.

Williams, now 33, was earning $8.05 an hour as a manager at McDonald's when she moved into the house with her husband, a laborer at a construction equipment manufacturer, and son back in 2004. The couple's combined annual salary was $33,000. But the purchase didn't require much of a financial stretch: The house cost $48,000. "If you have the credit score to do it, there's nothing that can stop you from buying a home in Youngstown," said Williams, whose plans for the house include a second bathroom"

See! Republican economics works!! Here are two people working full time making $33K between them and they can afford a house!! Nine of the 10 "most affordable" places to live are in Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio!!

So why are these folks whining about lost jobs, healthcare, college affordability etc. They have it so good under Republican economics!! Housing prices have been driven so low that even a couple of burgher flippers can afford one!!!

So when you rust belt folks vote your "values" instead of your pocketbook, think about Johnnie boy's "patriotism" and how he is truly the "servant" of the nation. Screw you and your lost jobs, lack of healthcare, inabilibty to send your kid to college or pay for a wedding. If you're in deep economic doodoo and vote for more of the same, you deserve it.

Cindy Mc wore a $300,000 dress to the party; its you who are the servant.

Posted by: toritto | September 9, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse

The latest polls find good news for both candidates, with McCain taking big lead in Ohio, surging in Washington while Obama ties in Florida, Virginia: http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/08/more-polls-dead-heats

Posted by: Dan | September 9, 2008 10:53 AM | Report abuse

"In our newest predictions, we had it at 269 electoral votes for Obama and 249 for McCain with Ohio (yes, Ohio!) staring us in the face....we put Ohio in Obama's category, giving him 289 electoral votes to 249 for McCain..."

Well, that immediately makes your map wrong by a 40-point margin. Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes should be in the McCain column, giving Obama 249 and McCain 289.

Here's why: a new poll out TODAY shows McCain up by 7 points. There was one poll after the Obama convention and one poll after the McCain convention.

The poll just after the Obama convention, with his big "convention bounce" showed Obama up in Ohio by 2 points. As we all know by now, the Obama bounce has all evaporated over the past week and he's back to his pre-convention levels.

The poll taken after the McCain convention (posted today), shows McCain up by 7 points. And as we know, the McCain convention bump hasn't yet been determined to be a "bounce" (i.e. his new polling numbers may stick instead of falling back down to his pre-convention levels).

But just the fact that Obama's polling has dropped by about 4-5 points since the time of his peak post-convention polling means that taking that number that he was up by 2 points a week ago, makes no sense since it was sampled at a peak in his polling, when we know that peak has collapsed nationally.

Not only is McCain up by 7 points in the last poll, posted today, but the RCP average of polls in Ohio over the last 2 weeks show McCain up over Obama on average. If you take the numbers for the past month, McCain is up on average even more.

There is simply zero factual or statistical basis for putting Ohio in the Obama column except wishful thinking and pandering to the pro-Obama culture in your newsroom.

Ohio polls page at realclearpolitics.com:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

Posted by: AsperGirl | September 9, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

Give me a break. Does anyone have pictures of Obama in church when Wright is spouting his bile ? Is Obama standing up with him and holding hands during this ? With Palin we have crackpot shots. She doesn't matter in the least to me except, she is a heartbeat away from the Presidency with McBush's medical record. How can any intelligent person vote for these two ? The President of the United States should be one of our best and brightest, not educationally challenged as is currently the case or would be the case with these two.

Posted by: Falmouth | September 9, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

I'm an old retired guy who doesn’t have to work and I can honestly say it won't matter to me in the long run who wins this election. At my age any election I participate in could be my last. I do believe however that the current administration has been the worst in my lifetime (born during FDR). I don't think anyone can rationally deny that. We have had 8 years of corruption, unnecessary war and shredding of the Constitution. Over the weekend we reached the highest unemployment rate in 5 years and the deregulated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be rescued by the taxpayers before they collapsed of their own accord. Now this party wants us to give them 4 more years so that John the "maverick" can fix Washington. ...like I was born yesterday.

If "small town working class" rust-belt voters and disgruntled Clinonistas in Ohio, Pa., Michigan and Indiana help re-elect the GOP then I for one don't want to hear anymore whining from them about their disappearing jobs and livelihoods, the high cost of college and gas, lack of health care etc. Let Johnnie's "patriotism" put food on your table. Go flip burghers!

Screw 'ya. Cling to your guns and religion. Pray to Jesus when you go hunting for a meal. Stay with that church and keep your weapon. You will need both the soup kitchen and the rifle. You will deserve what you get.

I got mine already. I live comfortably in the sunny South on a golf course, got my steady income, my "socialist" medicare and prescription drug coverage that you younger people wish you had but will never get under the Republicans. I sent my girls to college and they are successfully out on their own. The world won't run out of gas before I go and the planet won't get too hot.

A McCain election ain't gonna hurt me!

As Johnny Carson used to say - I upped my lifestyle - up yours!

God helps those who help themselves - if you're in deep doodoo economically and you vote Republican for their "values", you deserve it.

Posted by: toritto | September 9, 2008 10:28 AM | Report abuse

A convention bounce does not add up to an electoral win..
Can't wait for the debates..
Flag waving for a week will not amount to a Nov 4 win...for either side..
Let's get to the meat and stop looking at personalities..
What will either side do for the American voter?
So far the only side telling me what they will do is Obama...
I could give a flying fig if Palin is a good Mommy ...I am a good Mommy and I do not think I am qualified to hold the highest office in the nation...
The map will fill out nicely by mid October..

Posted by: Goddesscon2001 | September 9, 2008 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Let's say that we grant Ohio to McCain, that would be a 269-269 tie. No wonder that Obama is choosing to compete everywhere, including the Nebraska 2nd congressional district. If Obama can take Omaha, that could be a decider. 270-268 - Obama.

Posted by: Peter Zenger | September 9, 2008 10:27 AM | Report abuse

7:39 a.m. post:

"I don't even bother reading The Fix posts. Who cares if Chris says that the predictions are based on polling? Nationwide polling gives it to McCain, the Electoral College will not be a factor this year.

"I wonder if the Obama bloggers will go to my MySpace page. OMG, we could be BFF!"

Posted by: 37th&OStreet Translator | September 9, 2008 10:26 AM | Report abuse

I'm an unaffiliated, Indepent voter who is voting for Obama. More and more are doing the same.

Reason 1: As an upper-middle-class stay at home mom I know that even our graduate degree jobs will be next to be cut under McCain's trickle down economic plan. We make more than $100K and less than $250K. And if we can't afford to buy anything or go anywhere no one will go back to work. Richer people than us will be next in line to lose their jobs and houses. I will be one of the 95% that will get tax relief under Obama. Then I'll be able to afford once again to hire workers, go on vacation and buy another car.

Reason 2: McCain and Palin's attempt to define God's Will where it suits their wallets is shameful, disgraceful and a wool cap being pulled over the eyes of Christians like me everywhere. She and her pastor have actually come out and said that in the days of the rapture that Alaska is one of the refuge states. (She said this in June of 2008 folks. I watched the video of her pastor say it and heard her agree with it). Oh really? Is there a Bible verse to back that up or are they just talking out the back of their special interest pulpit?

How dare they try to frighten American Christians into believing that 9/11 was a deserved judgement by God and that if we don't vote for them we'll suffer more of the same wrath of God?

3. How convenient for our government to bring back 8,000 troops with less than 2 months to go till election day. God Bless our Troops for doing an outstanding job and for doing what they were told to do! Too bad so many had to die while the Bush administration held out for political timing.

If you are an undecided voter, or a republican who really is paying attention to the issues, please take the time to learn all you can. View the following:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0SFERgx6JE

and then:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGWoZqCf2Fk&feature=related

There are many more like me who no longer find the McCain/Palin fluff entertaining, and because it's becoming clear that it's just hot air, their platform is starting to deflate quickly.

The real issues are what's driving us swing voters. And I don't think that debating the merits of the candidates in blogs or in mainstream media is a bad thing. Contrary to some of the polls we independents are carefully looking into the issues, looking past the parties and into the long-range plans of both. Obama has more to offer in my opinion and will really get our country back to a time of wealth and prosperity.

Posted by: Terri T | September 9, 2008 10:18 AM | Report abuse

I was seriously considering McCain, but his pick of Sarah Palin shows he is, in fact, putting his campaign ahead of country.

I am quite concerned with the wisdom of choosing someone who is thrust upon the national scene with so little time to come to know how she reacts to intense scrutiny. As the head of the ticket, I would expect one to need to have seen more before presenting someone to the country as my choice to back me up in the Oval Office.

And that lack of vetting shows. When you look closer at things she has said she did, you find her claims don't match the truth. When you look closer at how she has governed, her style appears to be closer to Bush's than McCain's style.

And then there is the GOP platform, which I expected John McCain would modify. Unfortunately, he wasn't permitted to impact a single word. Palin's personal platform, however, was in full agreement with the platform. One of my concerns is her support of what amounts to a Rapist Bill of Rights, allowing a rapist to impose his will to have a baby by any woman or child unfortunate to be a victim of rape or incest. I cannot imagine the horror of being having absolutely no choice but to relive the violation all the way to term.

No, when looking at the Republican ticket, we end up with a packaged pair espousing extreme views, and potential leaders with the high school nicknames of McNasty and Sarah Barracuda. This is a disturbing testimony to temperament unbecoming a President in the 21st Century, an era of worldwide 24/7 news and instantaneous communication.

The McCain of 2000 would not vote for the McCain of today, and would certainly reject a Sarah Palin as prepared or suitable for VP or President; apparently, the Straight Talk Express has been replaced by a Double Talk Bus.

Ironically, continuing the religion theme, Sarah has taken up the mantle of savior of John McCain's campaign. We shall see what happens as Saint Sarah moves from prepared remarks (nothing wrong with those) into arenas of unscripted interviews (where you really get tested).

Considering her statements and personal philosophies so far, however, McNasty and Saint Sarah are so flawed that for the sake of the country's future, voting for them would be a mistake.

I'd have to say Barack Obama and Joe Biden are more intellectually prepared and even tempered for the Executive Office, and in this cycle present the better choice.

Posted by: DrivenAway | September 9, 2008 10:11 AM | Report abuse

TO: Mssrs. CHERTOFF, MUKASEY, PAULSON, GATES, McCONNELL, MUELLER

"GOV'T AGENCIES SUPPORT DOMESTIC TERRORISM"
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/government-agencies-support-domestic-torture-and-gang-stalking-says-noted-nowpublic-com-columnist

What do you know about this, and what are you doing about it?

Posted by: scrivener | September 9, 2008 10:00 AM | Report abuse

Partisan preferences aside, Sarah Palin might turn out to be a shooting star, a flash in the pan, a fad.

Lefties find it hard to accept that her personality (such as we've seen it in this brief amount of time) can be so appealing. She reminds me of people I grew up with. Admit it, Lefties, she's someone that millions of Americans can relate to.

Righties like her so much that they'll say anything to make the case that she's ready to fix the economy and deal with Vladimir Putin. (I'm sure Putin shakes in fear over the pitbull with lipstick line.) Admit it, Righties, it's not so much that you think she'd be a great president - you just like her.

The next phase is coming soon. Eventually, McCain and Palin will have to campaign separately, and we'll see which of the two draws bigger crowds (I'm betting it's Palin).

And then come the debates. Oh, this roller coaster ride is just starting to pick up!

Posted by: dognabbit | September 9, 2008 9:27 AM | Report abuse

I'm glad that The Fix has NH in McCain's column. I firmly believe our blue state will turn red again this year.
The poster who claimed that NH will be harder with Palin doesn't know NH. We hunt moose here and, yes, eat mooseburgers.

In addition, we've already told the world:
(1) we love John McCain
(2) we don't love Barack Obama

(Does anyone have any idea why Barack Obama and the DNC chose to piss off 18 million Democratic voters? What an idiotic "judgment" call -- failing miserably, right before our very eyes, at being a "uniter, not a divider.")

In addition, the state of NH is overwhelmingly Catholic. However, Joe Biden will not be winning the Catholic vote here, imho.

Regarding other states:
I've seen the new Obama-Kilpatrick ad in Michigan and I can't imagine it will help BHO in Michigan.

I also don't think the "bitter" remarks -- especially behind closed doors -- are going to be helpful in PA or OH.
(I've got to question the BHO "judgment" again, of insulting Clinton supporters in PA and OH. Absolutely idiotic!)

I also believe Palin will help in western states -- possibly CO, WA...
And I think McCain's acceptance speech will do the trick in VA.

Finally, for every Obamabots who begs the msm to make Gov. Palin's "fringe" religion an issue?
Two words: Jeremiah Wright.

If I may just add:
I find it absolutely hysterical that Presidential hopeful Barack Obama still finds himself having to campaign against VICE PRESIDENTIAL hopeful Sarah Palin.

Traditionally, didn't we all say that the VP was the pit bull?

So, she's moved on to attacking Obama, but he's still reduced to attacking HER... and by name no less!

I've never witnessed that before, in about 40 years of voting. Has anyone else?
LOL!

Posted by: Jan | September 9, 2008 9:23 AM | Report abuse

It's about the economy stupid and how quickly Pain can self destruct

Posted by: nclwtk | September 9, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

I like how The Fix finally got rid of all the "Undecideds" on his map.

Posted by: Pompous Magnus | September 9, 2008 9:12 AM | Report abuse

We are very concerned that the Palin interveiew will be on Schmit's turf where he can control the Alaskan scenery! Charlie Gibson's questions might get lost in the 2 day beautiful scenry? A serious interview is at George Stephanopoulos's Table where all the other candidates have done interveiews for Years. Its now 57 days to November 4th and just One Palin interview?

Posted by: Liz | September 9, 2008 9:04 AM | Report abuse

Response to 37th&OStreet: "Obama's people are desperate to cut apart Palin - it is unbelievable"

Well too bad - if you can't stand the heat, don't bully the chef.
Palin's a politician running for the 2nd highest office of the United States, not my little blue-haired grandmother, Jeesh!

Palin's history and present course of being a consumate liar, a crook and an egostical control freak should absolutely come under scrutiny.

When she read her teleprompted one-liners and used her Don Rickles approach to insult everyone who WASN'T...:

- republican
- an Alaskan who listened to her campaign for their bridge to somewhere and then watched her take it away after getting 27 million from Congress and spending it on a road to nowhere.
- white
- younger than 30
- older than 50
- working more than one job
- out of work
- foreclosing on their home
- burying a child or spouse who might have lived if they'd had the same health care she did

...she became not only fair game, but our responsibility as Americans to carefully scrutinize her and hey - if there winds up being a million reasons why she should pack up her guns, her hockey-sticks and her lip-sticks and go back to Alaska with her Caribou tail between her legs, it isn't my fault. I certainly have no control over every idiot thing she's ever done.

Posted by: peakmom | September 9, 2008 9:02 AM | Report abuse

Isn't Sarah Palin the chosen one now? She can't pronounce Iraq properly, which shows how much attention she's paid to it, she is a proven liar, just got a passport last year. Yeah! She's ready at this crucial and dangerous time to lead our Country. Straight into oblivion.

Posted by: Honesty | September 9, 2008 8:43 AM | Report abuse

From:
Head of State
http://tinyurl.com/55atsk


Monday, September 08, 2008
Fear and the Result of Our Decisions: Media, Palin and Iraq

I recall keenly the days of the run-up to the Iraq war. How many journalists--including those I knew and admired--drew back from criticism of obvious gaps and flaws in the logic leading to the conflict; who, despite stories of critical importance for the future of the nation hanging before them, left them hanging in the group-reinforced fear that they would be accused of a lack of patriotism if they were to report them.

And so they were left to be reported long after--in books looking back at the clear issues, landmark errors, and trail of missed opportunities that has led to the fatal outcomes we now see before us.

The issues were there at the time. To be reported.

They were not.

Today, they are again being cowed, by an equally powerful fear of unnecessary intimidation and restraint, the consequences of which stretch far beyond those that we have seen in Iraq.

At a time when we are at war, the economy in shambles, when today Fannie and Freddie Mac are, for the first time in their history, in effect being nationalized, we are being swept by emotion and fear--career fear--into ignoring a situation that would likely send us tumbling into the unknown.

For the short-term fear that each journalist feels, in being perceived as "unpatriotic" to vague, manifest threats regarding gender--they fail to report issues that have nothing to do with gender: the preparedness of a candidate for Vice President of the United States, running alongside an elderly and chronically ill Presidential candidate.

Instead--just as in the run-up to Iraq--each is making the easier choice--to join the risk-averse chorus of personality pieces, each, in the same diffusion of responsibility that had such a major role in leading us into the war in Iraq, taking the route that leads away from fact, regardless of gender.

As in Iraq, reporting fact--regardless of pressure for a mindless conformity and silence--represented actual patriotism, providing the nation with the information it needed to make a reliable and authentic decision, so reporting the facts here--regardless of pressure for an unthinking conformity represents a true balance, a true equality, a true lack of bias.

This is a time of difficult decisions. However, those decisions--your decisions--matter. We have seen this.

Report it. Don't be cowed.

Cite:
Head of State
http://tinyurl.com/55atsk

Posted by: Anonymous | September 9, 2008 8:42 AM | Report abuse

Please keep up this Partisan bickering- The Independents are watching-

Gallup 9-9-08

"September 9, 2008
McCain Now Winning Majority of IndependentsMajority of independents now prefer him over Obama, 52% to 37%USA Democrats Election 2008 Government and Politics Republicans Americas Northern America by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain's 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking."

Posted by: Scott | September 9, 2008 8:41 AM | Report abuse

37th&OStreet--how dumb are you?

1. Bloggers are independent from campaigns.
2. Palin has been tearing into her opponents for days now. What goes around, comes around.

Posted by: scrapster | September 9, 2008 8:40 AM | Report abuse

.

Obama's people are desperate to cut apart Palin - it is unbelievable. Forget about Obama's campaign theme of the "new politics" and how different Obama is. Obama is a FRAUD TO HIS OWN CAMPAIGN THEME - JUST READ HIS BLOGGERS.

.

Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 9, 2008 7:40 AM | Report abuse

Chris:

Ohio is firmly in McCain's hands.


You are dreaming about New Mexico, or drinking some KOOL-AID.


You are so desperate you do not realize how offended Michigan voters are as a result of Obama's people supporting Michigan voters counting half in the primaries.


Also Pennsylvania is in play.


McCain might win Pennsylvania for some extremely good reasons - McCain and Sarah will win with at least 320 Electoral Votes and probably closer to or over 400 Electoral Votes. Take that Pluouffe !!!


Posted by: 37th&OStreet | September 9, 2008 7:39 AM | Report abuse

Give McCain Ohio and Michigan and you end up with a GOP stunner. It could happen...

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: matt | September 9, 2008 7:39 AM | Report abuse

What's this got to do with the Fix Picks, Roger?

Anyway; I think the Palin choice will make it harder for McCain to win New Hampshire. He might win Ohio, though, but I have a feeling Obama will win Virginia. Either one of NH and VA will put Obama over the top should McCain win Ohio.

Posted by: ambolt | September 9, 2008 7:20 AM | Report abuse

It is amazing how The Chosen One's paid army of trollers scour every blog with most hate filled messages. This has turned me, an avid HRC supporter off voting Democratic for the Messiah.

The bias is astounding. If Obama reads a prepared speech from a teleprompter he is a brilliant orator, but is Sarah Palin reads a speech she is incompetent. If Biden criticizes McCain, he is doing the attack dog role of a VP but is Palin question's the Messiah's empty record, she is shrill and mean. The whole Democratic convention was spent in every speaker except the Clintons, mostly criticizing McCain, but it the GOP does the same it is a smear campaign.

Palin who is running for VEEP and not C-in-C generates more interest in the liberal press for her all American family, but the fact the The One spent 20 years in an anti - American church with a hate filled Pastor concerns no one.

There is a news for Obamabots, on Nov 4 there are no screaming caucuses to pressurise the voters, there are no Reid and Pelosi who can arm twist the Super Delegates and change rules for MI and FL to award the nomination to The One, and people are voting in isolation of the voting booth and they will vote for an American hero and an American Super Mom with an average flawed family like the rest of us.

Posted by: Roger Urguhart, CA | September 9, 2008 6:44 AM | Report abuse

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