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Prediction Time! New Hampshire Edition

After an outpouring of predictions from political pros and amateur pundits alike on The Fix last week for Iowa's caucuses, we're back again for the New Hampshire primary.

Political Geography of New Hampshire

The rules are the same. In the comments section below offer your best guess at the top three finishers in today's GOP and Democratic races -- with percentages. Don't forget, we also want to hear what you think the story line will be coming out of New Hampshire.

Since most polling places in New Hampshire close at 7 p.m. ET, that's the cutoff point for our picks as well. Any picks submitted after that time won't count.

Even before we posted, the picks started coming in. Misha Chellam, a Fix reader in Vietnam (!), sent her predictions directly to The Fix inbox before heading to bed halfway around the world. Now that's loyalty.

Here's what Chellam thinks will happen:

Democrats
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 34
Edwards: 19

Republicans
McCain: 39%
Romney: 29
Paul: 15

Storyline: "Hillary down but not out...McCain charges to the front of the pack."

Here are some picks from people who do politics for a living. The general consensus among the experts was Barack Obama will beat Hillary Rodham Clinton by double digits on the Democratic side, while John McCain will emerge victorious -- the predicted margins vary -- over Mitt Romney in the GOP race.

Without further ado, let the predicting begin. And remember: Free Fix t-shirts to the winners!

* Ed Failor Jr., Iowans for Tax Relief (Iowa prediction winner -- storyline)

Republicans
McCain: 36%
Romney: 23
Huckabee: 17

Democrats
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 25

Storyline: "Ding dong the witch is dead...politically."

* Marc Elias, Democratic lawyer (Iowa prediction winner -- GOP results)

Democrats
Obama: 44%
Clinton: 32
Edwards: 18

Republicans
McCain: 34%
Romney: 33
Paul: 13

Storyline: "Obama continues to build momentum, the GOP race remains wide open."

* John Weaver, Republican consultant, former McCain adviser (Iowa prediction winner -- Democratic results)

Democrats
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 27
Edwards: 18

Republicans
McCain: 34%
Romney: 30
Huckaee: 16

Storyline: "Obama fever grips New Hampshire, Clinton on the ropes...McCain pulls a Lazarus."

* Brendan Daly, communications director, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.)

Democrats
Obama: 40.1%
Clinton: 31.3
Edwards: 17.2

Republicans
McCain: 30.7%
Romney: 26.4
Huckabee: 14.8

* Neil Newhouse, Republican pollster

Democrats
Obama: 43%
Hillary: 28
Edwards: 19

Republicans
McCain: 36%
Romney: 32
Huckabee: 15

Storyline: "It's the Hillary campaign death watch countdown until she pulls out of the race."

* Alex Vogel, Republican lobbyist

Democrats
Obama: 40%
Clinton: 28
Edwards: 17

Republicans
McCain: 34%
Romney: 29
Huckabee: 13

Storyline: "Are Hillary and Romney done?"

* Erik Potholm, Republican media consultant

Democrats
Obama: 38%
Clinton: 27
Edwards: 20

Republicans
McCain: 35%
Romney: 25
Huckabee: 13

Storyline: "It appears that only a self-inflicted wound could slow the Obama campaign at this point."

* Bob Stevenson, Republican consultant

Democrats
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 19

Republicans
McCain: 32%
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 14

Storyline: "Clinton double-digit loss has campaign in disarray."

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 8, 2008; 12:05 PM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Hillary Tears Up: Help or Hindrance?
Next: N.H. Expectations Game Underway

Comments

Glad to see the pundits and media with egg on their faces. When are journalists going to stop this horserace coverage. I am sick of them. Hurray for Hillary, who at least has some substantial experience. However, I fear if it is not Edwards, it is a Republican president in 2008.

Posted by: afellow1 | January 11, 2008 5:39 AM | Report abuse

CNN is projecting HRC with a 3% win over Obama.

Well, well, well. Fat lot we Fixers know, eh?

FemaleNick, I know you're smiling in CA.

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 10:59 PM | Report abuse

At 6:59pm EST, the Post's website looked like it was already calling the race for Obama... It really seems to confirm that media doesn't add much besides amplify a small subset of total information.

Seriously, what were these predictions based on besides repeating polls you all heard about through a gossip filter.

Posted by: PoultryExpress2 | January 8, 2008 10:27 PM | Report abuse

I'm looking at the New Hampshire returns too and it's AMAZING that Clinton is still ahead with 40% of the vote in. HOWEVER, the gap is definitely narrowing. Obama could still win this, but Clinton has already secured at least a media victory because the stories will be "rumors of the Clinton demise have greatly been exaggerated."

Posted by: theseventen | January 8, 2008 9:29 PM | Report abuse

I know I am too late, but New Hampshire says, "not so fast" has to be the headline in tomorrows newspapers, as HIllary is going to win by 4 or 5%. I can't find any commentray on it are you all struck dumb?

Posted by: slbk | January 8, 2008 8:56 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 41%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 27%

Republicans
McCain 32%
Huckabee 20%
Romney 20%

Storyline: "Obama's message sticks. Change. Clinton, crippled. McCain takes New Hampshire, Romney crippled."

Posted by: halloitsmark | January 8, 2008 8:24 PM | Report abuse

Obama 36%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 28%
Richardson 4%

McCain 28%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 20%
Guiliani 12%
Ron Paul 11%
Thompson 4%

Storyline: Clinton's ground game keeps her in the fight as McCain siphons Obama's independent votes to keep GOP race muddled.

Posted by: okcjrl | January 8, 2008 7:45 PM | Report abuse

PREDICTIONS NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

DEMOCRATS
OBAMA 38 %
EDWARDS 26 %
CLINTON 24 %

REPUBLICANS
MCCAIN 35 %
ROMNEY 33 %
HUCKABEE 19 %

Posted by: jonashallen66 | January 8, 2008 7:37 PM | Report abuse

My picks:

Obama 41
Clinton 30
Edwards 24

McCain 34
Romney 25
Huckabee 16

Hubby:

Obabma 42
Clinton 33
Edwards 17

McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 15

Posted by: cellings | January 8, 2008 7:03 PM | Report abuse

obama 43
clinton 29
edwards 21

Mccain 30
romney 29.5
Huck 15
Fred 13
Ron 9

Headline:
(R)Romney "wins" suprisngly close 2nd place showing.

(D) who can stop the obama juggernaut in november?

Posted by: johnbessey | January 8, 2008 7:01 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama: 43%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 17%
Richardson: 7%
Others: 4%

Republicans

McCain: 38%
Romney: 29%
Hucakbee: 13%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 9%
Thompson: 1%

Storyline

"Obama's groundswell continues & McCain pulls a pheonix rising; Frontrunner campaigns of Clinton, Romney, and Giuliani in shambles."

Posted by: mustafa.hirji | January 8, 2008 6:57 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 31
Huckabee 13

Obama 45
Clinton 29
Edwards 22

Posted by: john.fetters | January 8, 2008 6:47 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 31
Huckabee 13

Obama 45
Clinton 29
Edwards 22

Posted by: john.fetters | January 8, 2008 6:47 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 46%
Hillary 23%
Edwards 21%

Republicans

Romney 33%
McCain 31%
Paul 11%

Story: After Hillary Is O'BOMBED she explodes into a wave of tears that drowns
James Carville before he can come to her rescue..

Romney squeaks past McCain when last minute ballots are printed and McCain's geriatric group are taking a nap...
Romney also gets in a headslap to Huckabe,
while Chuck Norris is off wrestling with Ron Paul supporters.

Posted by: ralfframe | January 8, 2008 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Obama 46%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 5%

McCain 39%
Romney 22%
Paul 16%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 5%
Thompson 3%

And within hours a new season of "When Clintons Attack" will debut. On the Republican side the stories will be the "Beatification of St. McCain, Part XXI"; "Huck-a-Bust"; and Mitt will claim to the voters of Michigan that he's always driven Big Three cars as a BMW key pokes out of his pocket.

Posted by: tuckermc | January 8, 2008 6:40 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama- 42
Clinton- 30
Edwards- 22

Republicans:

McCain-38
Romney-32
Thompson-18

Posted by: ssherraden | January 8, 2008 6:40 PM | Report abuse

DEMOCRATS
Obama: 42
HRC: 33
Edwards: 18
Story: "Obama Message of Hope Sweeps New Hampshire As Clinton Restructures Campaign"

REPUBLICANS
McCain: 35
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 12
Story: "GOP Race Wide Open With McCain Victory In Granite State"

Posted by: canderson | January 8, 2008 6:39 PM | Report abuse

Mccain - 32%
Romney - 28%
Huckabee - 20%

Democrats -

Obama - 42%
Hilary - 32%
Edwards - 12%

Posted by: monicaclifton | January 8, 2008 6:38 PM | Report abuse

I forgot - some headlines:

"Ron Paul Demonstrates Super Powers - Voters Unimpressed"
"Edwards Ejected From Beauty Contest After Voting For Self"
"Hillary In Talks With 'Lifetime' Channel - Candidate To Star In
Afterschool Special 'Not Without My Delegates'"
"Obama To Auction Autographs - Proceeds To Go Toward Deficit
Reduction"
"Giuliani Divorces Third Wife: By Text Message!"
"Space Alien Endorses Kucinich"
"Romney To Purchase White House: 'Even If I Don't Win, It's A
Great Rental Property'"
"Mike Gravel To Fund Campaign - By Playing Bingo!"


Posted by: bokonon13 | January 8, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama- 42%
Clinton- 29%
Edwards- 12%

Summary: play time is over. hillary is going to get a pair pliars and a blow torch and get midieviel on obama.

Republicans

Romney- %34
McCain- %31
Huckabee- %15

Summary: John McCain and Romney meet at a Mcdonald's parking lot and get their fight on, while Huckabee prays that nobody gets hurt.

eugene from ohio

Posted by: ross94 | January 8, 2008 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama- 42%
Clinton- 29%
Edwards- 12%

Summary: play time is over. hillary is going to get a pair pliars and a blow torch and get midieviel on obama.

Republicans

Romney- %34
McCain- %31
Huckabee- %15

Summary: John McCain and Romney meet at a Mcdonald's parking lot and get their fight on, while Huckabee prays that nobody gets hurt.

Posted by: ross94 | January 8, 2008 6:34 PM | Report abuse

Tonight's Results (My prediction):
DEM:
Obama: 38%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 28%

REP:
McCain: 34%
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 18%

Posted by: jeremiah | January 8, 2008 6:34 PM | Report abuse

Obama 44%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 21%

McCain 32%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 15%

Can Obama be stopped? Clinton's inevitability is distant memory, abandons SC and brings in fresh blood in one last effort. The Mac is back from the dead.

Posted by: julie1919julie | January 8, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

Obama 44%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%

McCain 29%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 13%

Can Obama be stopped? Clinton's inevitability is distant memory, abandons SC and brings in fresh blood in one last effort. The Mac is back from the dead.

Posted by: julie1919julie | January 8, 2008 6:28 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 39
Clinton 30
Edwards 19

Reps:
McCain 32
Romney 30
Huckabee 12

Story: "Return of the Mac: McCain triumphs after campaign despair 6 months ago"

Posted by: segatony | January 8, 2008 6:18 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 48%
Edwards: 23%
Clinton: 22%

McCain: 37%
Huckabee: 29%
Romney: 28%


Edwards is still in, Huckabee is happy.


Posted by: JpAcosta | January 8, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA 45%

CLINTON 25%

EDWARDS 18%

Storyline: Clinton on life support.

ROMNEY 33%

McCAIN 32%

HUCKABEE 15%

Storyline: Romney pulls off close win, he remains alive. McCain will battle on but things look bleak for him.

Posted by: lumi21us | January 8, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:

McCain - 36%
Romney - 30%
Huckabee - 16%

Democrats:

Obama - 40%
Clinton - 28%
Edwards - 20%

Storyline: Democratic and Independent voters signal desire for changing of the guard. Republican race is up for grabs following strong McCain win.

Posted by: txsig78 | January 8, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 50%
Edwards: 23%
Clinton: 22%

Romney: 37%
McCain: 32%
Huckabee: 22%

Romney back in race, Clinton fires Penn

Posted by: robertcoulthard | January 8, 2008 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 41
Clinton 32
Edwards 18

Storyline - Obama's 'movement' toward inevitability.

Republicans

McCain 36
Romney 31
Huckabee 14
Paul 10

Storyline - Unlike Dems, GOP race lacks true frontrunner

Posted by: ryanmi03 | January 8, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 42%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards:14%


The other guys (R)

McCain: 35%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 13%

Storyline: Obama-mania continues, Romney's campaign is over.

Posted by: MrWallace | January 8, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%

Republicans
McCain: 34%
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 13%

Posted by: MikeReynard | January 8, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Obama 48%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 5%

Story Line: "A 'Fairy Tale' ending for Obama in NH"

Posted by: chopperoni | January 8, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 48%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 22%

Repubs:
McCain: 30%
Romney: 30%
Hucakbee: 17%

Storyline: Crushing loss forces major staff changes to Clinton campaign. Romney's close loss reinvigorates campaign on way to Michigan.

Posted by: haoledave | January 8, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

D's
Obama - 47
Clinton - 29
Edwards - 18
Richardson - 4

R's

McCain - 35
Romney - 24
Huckabee - 14
Paul - 11
Guiliani - 8
Thompson - 6

Story - Independents power Obama and McCain to resounding victories in New Hampshire primaries. Obama solidifies role as the national front runner... McCain too?

Posted by: JMKrieger75 | January 8, 2008 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Storyline: DNC takes serious moves to prevent Clinton Machine from turning primaries into bloodbath.

Alt. Storyline: Civility Wins As Era of Acrimony Loses!

Posted by: miraclestudies | January 8, 2008 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama: 43%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 19%
Repubs:
McCain: 32%
Romney: 29%
Paul 14%

Obama Wins Big with Indy Vote; McCain Lucky to Win at All

Posted by: justdamian | January 8, 2008 5:29 PM | Report abuse

BryantFlyer writes
"My predictions were so bad in Iowa, I prolly shouldn't make NH predictions."

Agreed. Your Dem totals add up to 110%. In Chicago, perhaps.

Posted by: bsimon | January 8, 2008 5:29 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 44%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 18%

Republicans
McCain: 34%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 13%

Storyline:
Independents flood to Obama, causing a closer than expected victory for McCain.

Posted by: jakesiler | January 8, 2008 5:21 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:
McCain- 34
Romney- 27
Huckabee- 16

Democrats:
Obama- 42
Clinton- 31
Edwards - 24

The Straight Talk Express Rolls onto the Motor City!

Posted by: jmmulrooney | January 8, 2008 5:14 PM | Report abuse

http://www.elephantbiz.com/2008/01/the_biz_predictions_new_hampsh.html

Democrats
Obama 40%
Clinton 34
Edwards: 22

Republicans
McCain 39%
Romney 28
Paul 14

Storyline: "Independents come out in force propelling Barack Obama to his second victory over Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney suffers another double digit loss, this time to John McCain while Ron Paul tops Rudy Giuliani once again, as well as the two other Southerners in the race."

JX
elephantbiz.com

Posted by: jx | January 8, 2008 5:09 PM | Report abuse

My predictions were so bad in Iowa, I prolly shouldn't make NH predictions. But, here goes:

Democrats:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 28%
Edwards: 23%
Richardson:20%

Obama continues to roll, but Richardson surprises. Clinton campaign begins reshuffling during fight vs. Kucinich to win Michigan.

Republicans:
McCain: 35%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 16%
Guiliani: 12%
McCain back in the frey, goes on to Michigan & Nevada with a bang! Romney likely done. 3 way fight: Huckabee vs. McCain vs. Guiliani. What a contest!

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | January 8, 2008 5:09 PM | Report abuse

People bellyache about the pack-like mindless media establishing highly questionable conventional wisdom, and then repeat it. It continues to amaze.

Posted by: Netizen | January 8, 2008 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Dems

Obama - 42%
Edwards - 28%
Clinton - 26%

R's

Romney - 34%
McCain - 33%
Huckabee - 15%

Story - The Clinton era is officially over, America has moved on

Side Story - Willard Mitt Romney saves political life and gets some momentum heading into Michigan

Posted by: geor0113 | January 8, 2008 4:55 PM | Report abuse

Obama 42%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 7%

McCain 34%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 14%
Thompson 7%
Giuliani 5%

Posted by: jsu8233n | January 8, 2008 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Dems

Obama 49%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 5%

Storyline: Obama Romps on Huge NH turn out, Hillary staggered by one/two punch, Richardson bows out.

GOP

Romney 30%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 12%
Thompson 6%
Giuliani 5%

Storyline: Virtual tie between Romney and McCain leaves GOP in chaos.

Posted by: dave8459 | January 8, 2008 4:54 PM | Report abuse

There are so many of us making predictions that many of them are likely to be exactly identical, so I will make wild guesses with an absurd amount of precision.

clinton 29.449
edwards 20.473
kucinich 2.019
obama 41.889
richardson 6.171

giuliani 8.947
huckabee 14.662
hunter 1.889
mccain 31.751
paul 11.541
romney 26.955
thompson 4.250

The story line for the democrats will be "Obama keeps on rollin', Hillary's inevitability's been stolen."

And for the Republicans "Big Mac's the new front runner."

Posted by: jsboster | January 8, 2008 4:53 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 42
Clinton: 28
Edwards: 15
Richardson: 14
Kucinich: 1

Republicans:

McCain: 32
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 14
Paul: 10
Giuliani: 6
Thompson: 4

Storylines: "Obama clear favorite; Clinton on ropes"; "McCain wins narrow victory; he and Romney move battle to Michigan"

Posted by: justmanj | January 8, 2008 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 46
Clinton 25
Edwards 22
Richardson 5
Other 2

GOP:

McCain 33
Romney 31
Huckabee 17
Paul 11
Giuliani 5
Thompson 3

Posted by: toren | January 8, 2008 4:48 PM | Report abuse

My predictions:

Democrats
Obama: 41
Edwards: 30
Clinton: 28

Republicans
Romney: 34
McCain: 33
Paul: 14

"Change trumps experience again!"
"Romney withstands McCain surge, Paul convincing 3rd"

Posted by: tonu1973 | January 8, 2008 4:48 PM | Report abuse

Mike's predictions:

Democrats
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 21

Republicans
McCain: 32%
Romney: 28
Huckabee: 13

Storyline: "Clinton and Romney have huge fight ahead to stay viable in the race."

Posted by: mikewilliams333 | January 8, 2008 4:46 PM | Report abuse

i CAN'T TYPE AT ALL TODAY. sORRY. i'LL LEAVE YOU ALL TO YOUR WILES. :)

God bless. Do not fear old people. It is time for america to grow. Without change this coutnry does not exist. Change IS america. freedom IS america. We have not been living in america the last decade (and to a lesser extent 30 years). I'm not sure where we have been living. The america I learned to love as a child is a myth. I'm not sure what land we have been living in. Maybe the land of zouk? The map is not the terrority.

I'm fighting for the america we were told about and tought to love. Now inplamenting that america is in our grasps. Who wants to stop true america? If so what country do you represent.

Good luck and God bless all.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 4:46 PM | Report abuse


Chip 'the seer' Shirley's picks.
CANCEL PREVIOUS POST-LATE BREAKING NEWS!

Democrats
Obama: 41%
Edwards: 28%
Clinton 25%

Republicans
Huckabee: 34%
McCain: 28%
Romney: 21%

Storyline: "ObamaRama!"
"Hucka-SonicBoom!"

Posted by: ChipShirley | January 8, 2008 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 42
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 23
Richardson: 5
Kucinich: 1
Gravel: 0

Republicans:

McCain: 33
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 15
Paul: 11
Giuliani: 8
Thompson: 3

"Obama wins big; Clinton shakes up campaign staff, discovers the Giuliani stategy. McCain wins narrowly, Huckabee outperforms, Giuliani finishes 5th"

Posted by: mschmidt73 | January 8, 2008 4:40 PM | Report abuse

jimoneill50: The Michigan primary does not count for the Democrats. The Democratic National Committee stripped the state of its delegates for moving up its primary. Michigan will only matter on the Republican side.

Posted by: ASinMoCo | January 8, 2008 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Obama 51%
Clinton 21%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 5%

Story line: Billary jockeys for VP position

HuckaBOOM 43%
Romney 17%
Johnny "Mac" 17%
Norris 8%

Story line: Huckabee/Norris '08 ("Huck n' Chuck")

Posted by: testing | January 8, 2008 4:39 PM | Report abuse

Checking in from Sweden with the following prediction.

GOP:

1. McCain 34
2. Romney 26
3. Giuliani 13

Dems:

1. Obama 44
2. Clinton 30
3. Edwards 14

Romneys campaign will be crippled but he will stay in the race at least for Michigan. Thompsons campaign will be questioned but he will hang in for SC and then drop out. Giuliani will get third by an inch and get some positive media. McCain will continue to be the flavor of the day and passing Huckabee in the national polls. Huckabee will finish at number five in NH beaten by Ron Paul. All this means that the GOP race is as tight as ever. Super Tuesday will see a very split decision for the GOP race.

On the democratic side Edwards will be beaten up badly by the NH voters. He will then drop out after SC. The hype will carry Obama into Super Tuesday and he will be picking up most of the Edwards support puttng all the preasure on Clinton who's on the ropes.

Posted by: johan.hammarqvist | January 8, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

I was watch fox last night (art of war)

A clinton backer said it would be a clinton vicotry if her lose was less than double digits. The other guest laughed at that one perplexed. clinton is done. All says doing now is feeding the gop monster.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
1. Obama: 43%
2. Clinton: 30%
3. Edwards: 16%

Republicans:
1. McCain: 33%
2. Romney: 27%
3. Huckabee: 13%

Storyline: "Obama Appears Unstoppable." "Republicans Without a Conservative: Establishment Moves to Resurrect Thompson"

Posted by: mack0174 | January 8, 2008 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Obama 47
Clinton 29
Edwards 24

McCain 37
Romney 22
Huckabee 16
Guiliani 14
Paul 11

Headlines: "Mo-Bama rides wave to Whitehouse" and "Romney reaches end of the road"

Story: Obama on a roll

Posted by: Boutan | January 8, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse

"Line: Should Hillary concede to allow Obama to start the General Election fight sooner than the Republicans can?"

YEs. Otherwise she comtinues to sabotage him with her "he's not ready (gop) rhetoric.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Republicans

McCain 36%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 15%
Guiliani 10%
Paul 8%
Thompson 3%

Democrats

Obama 43%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 6%

Double digit lead sinks Clinton for good.

McCain resurgence for real. Can Romney save his campaign in Michigan? Is Thompson done?

Posted by: tbuller321 | January 8, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

Obama 39%
Edwards 26%
Clinton 24%
Others 11%

Story line Edwards bouyed by second victory over Clinton looks to South Carolina to vie for equality with Obama.

McCain 30%
Romney 24%
Huckabee 17%
Others 27%

Story line McCain no knockout blow but leads Republicans to South Carolina

Posted by: firewater4 | January 8, 2008 4:31 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 27%

Republicans
McCain: 40%
Romney: 33%
Huckabee: 12%
Storyline: Democrats and Republicans Narrow the Choice down to Final Three.

Posted by: BobAllen1 | January 8, 2008 4:26 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 27%

Republicans
McCain: 40%
Romney: 33%
Huckabee: 12%
Storyline: Democrats and Republicans Narrow the Choice down to Final Three.

Posted by: BobAllen1 | January 8, 2008 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 39,
Clinton 31,
Edwards 21,
Richardson 6;
Story: Clinton is dead (even though she is not)

Republicans:
McCain 36,
Romney 32,
Huckaboom 12,
Giuliani 9
Paul 6
Thompson 5
Story: Press continues to give McCain a free pass and glorify him.

Posted by: bigrusslds | January 8, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 10%

Democrats:
Obama: 40%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 13%

McCain beats Romney, setting up showdown with Huckabee

Obama crushes Clinton... Clinton dropout countdown begins.

Posted by: kmis139t | January 8, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41
Clinton 29
Edwards 25
Line: Should Hillary concede to allow Obama to start the General Election fight sooner than the Republicans can?

McCain 39
Romney 26
Huckabee 21
Line: Romney's last stand will be in Michigan

Posted by: psears2 | January 8, 2008 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41
Clinton 29
Edwards 25
Line: Should Hillary concede to allow Obama to start the General Election fight sooner thatn the Republicans?

McCain 39
Romney 26
Huckabee 21
Line: Romney's last stand will be in Michigan

Posted by: psears2 | January 8, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 43%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 19%

GOP:

McCain: 32%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee:17.5%

Storyline: Young voters turn out big for Obama again! Is Huckabee expanding his base? Will Michigan be the final nail in Romney's coffin?

Posted by: mattthompsen | January 8, 2008 4:14 PM | Report abuse

By the way, the coverage across the atlantic of this election has been huge, especially on the democratic side of things. Obamania has hit the rest of the world.

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 4:13 PM | Report abuse

"does anyone give Obama much of a chance in the Michigan primary (given he is from the midwest), or is this Clinton territory?"

Tough call. They've already answered the question of why Michigan is being ignored; but if it were not... Its hard to predict how it would split. Urban areas have a large minority population. The economy overall is extremely depressed - probably the worst in the nation. That implies to me that the messages most likely to connect would be Edwards's class warfare & Obama's hope for the future. I don't think Clinton's laundry lists of policy initiatives would produce a lot of support.

Posted by: bsimon | January 8, 2008 4:12 PM | Report abuse

Storylines: Dem "Can Obama win Michigan even though he's not on the ballot?"

Rep "Giuliani brushes off loss to Ron Paul with shoe-horned reference to 9/11"


anticlimacus = incognito3_uk

Posted by: incognito3_uk | January 8, 2008 4:12 PM | Report abuse

sorry for the triple post. how embarassing. (the site appeared frozen. my bad.)

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

jnurse writes
"The idea that the Republicans are praying for Obama is a joke."

I suspect Repub strategists are rapidly moving from being worried about Nov to 'Scared Sh!itless'.

Posted by: bsimon | January 8, 2008 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Dems: Obama 38
Clinton 27
Edwards 22

Reps: McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 18

Story: For Clinton "Looking Forward" may not be enough; McCain resurgence will keep republican race wide open

Posted by: sanders.259 | January 8, 2008 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the info guys.

Mark, I'm in the UK at the moment where it's fairly mild right now for winter, having just come off a bit of a cold spell. It's very hot back in Oz though!

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 4:06 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41
Clinton 29
Edwards 23

McCain 33
Romney 29
Huckabee 19

Posted by: brentb52 | January 8, 2008 4:05 PM | Report abuse

"Why does South Carolina get so much more focus than Michigan? . . .
Also, does anyone give Obama much of a chance in the Michigan primary . . . y? Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 03:44 PM"

Several reasons, but the main one is that SC has been historically important--at least on the R side--and has a track record of how to gauge it. Our press has a pack mentality that only learns the hard way. It projects events that were important in the past into importance in the future.

It is always taken by surprise, and then "learns" only about the specific event in question. For example, Iowa shocked us by launching Jimmy Carter in 1976, so from then on, it was rated Important. But nothing else will be until it shocks us once.

If Michigan proves important in retrospect this year, it will elevated to Important next time. But our press never sees these things coming. Creatures of habit.

Also, on the D side, MI broke the rules, and was stripped of delegates. I believe Barack and Edwards actually signed written pledges not to participate last year, though Hillary did not, last I read about it. But no D has been contesting it. (Same is true of FL for the Ds, btw, without the pledges.)

The Rs decided to play on in both states.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

"Why does South Carolina get so much more focus than Michigan? . . .
Also, does anyone give Obama much of a chance in the Michigan primary . . . y?

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 03:44 PM"

Several reasons, but the main one is that SC has been historically important--at least on the R side--and has a track record of how to gauge it. Our press has a pack mentality that only learns the hard way. It projects events that were important in the past into importance in the future.

It is always taken by surprise, and then "learns" only about the specific event in question. For example, Iowa shocked us by launching Jimmy Carter in 1976, so from then on, it was rated Important. But nothing else will be until it shocks us once.

If Michigan proves important in retrospect this year, it will elevated to Important next time. But our press never sees these things coming. Creatures of habit.

Also, on the D side, MI broke the rules, and was stripped of delegates. I believe Barack and Edwards actually signed written pledges not to participate last year, though Hillary did not, last I read about it. But no D has been contesting it. (Same is true of FL for the Ds, btw, without the pledges.)

The Rs decided to play on in both states.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

"Why does South Carolina get so much more focus than Michigan? . . .
Also, does anyone give Obama much of a chance in the Michigan primary . . . y?

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 03:44 PM"

Several reasons, but the main one is that SC has been historically important--at least on the R side--and has a track record of how to gauge it. Our press has a pack mentality that only learns the hard way. It projects events that were important in the past into importance in the future.

It is always taken by surprise, and then "learns" only about the specific event in question. For example, Iowa shocked us by launching Jimmy Carter in 1976, so from then on, it was rated Important. But nothing else will be until it shocks us once.

If Michigan proves important in retrospect this year, it will elevated to Important next time. But our press never sees these things coming. Creatures of habit.

Also, on the D side, MI broke the rules, and was stripped of delegates. I believe Barack and Edwards actually signed written pledges not to participate last year, though Hillary did not, last I read about it. But no D has been contesting it. (Same is true of FL for the Ds, btw, without the pledges.)

The Rs decided to play on in both states.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 4:01 PM | Report abuse

jimoneill50 - MI moved its primaries to a date forbidden by the R and D parties. So the Ds say MI's primary will result in no [zero] delegates to the D N Convention. Rs have docked MI half its votes.

Same for FL.

So MI and FL have no traction among Ds and they have not been campaigning there, and reduced bu still significant meaning for Rs.

So, whats the weather where you are?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 8, 2008 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41
Clinton 32
Edwards 19

McC 34
Rom 29
Huc 14

Posted by: incognito3_uk | January 8, 2008 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 38%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 24%

McCain: 32
Romney: 27
Huckabee: 13

"Clinton Beats Expectations With Close Second, Edwards left Flailing, Romney's Last Hope is Michigan"

Posted by: perkins.nathaniel | January 8, 2008 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Oops...Coronation

Posted by: thepoliticalpost | January 8, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

"Why does South Carolina get so much more focus than Michigan? . . .
Also, does anyone give Obama much of a chance in the Michigan primary . . . y?

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 03:44 PM"

Several reasons, but the main one is that SC has been historically important--at least on the R side--and has a track record of how to gauge it. Our press has a pack mentality that only learns the hard way. It projects events that were important in the past into importance in the future.

It is always taken by surprise, and then "learns" only about the specific event in question. For example, Iowa shocked us by launching Jimmy Carter in 1976, so from then on, it was rated Important. But nothing else will be until it shocks us once.

If Michigan proves important in retrospect this year, it will elevated to Important next time. But our press never sees these things coming. Creatures of habit.

Also, on the D side, MI broke the rules, and was stripped of delegates. I believe Barack and Edwards actually signed written pledges not to participate last year, though Hillary did not, last I read about it. But no D has been contesting it. (Same is true of FL for the Ds, btw, without the pledges.)

The Rs decided to play on in both states.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Dems: Obama--38
Clinton--27
Edwards--22

GOP: McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 18

Storyline: For Clinton looking forward will not be enough; With McCain resurgence Republican race far from over

Posted by: sanders.259 | January 8, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 45%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 12%

Repubs:

Romney 30%
McCain 30%
Paul 16%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 1%

Headlines: "Obama Rocks in Granite State; Clinton Comeback Canceled" and "Romney, McCain Tie; GOP Battle Continues"

Posted by: mcgruff4 | January 8, 2008 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 42%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 21%

"A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Corination"

Reps:

McCain 32%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 18%

"The Phoenix Rises From The Ashes"

Posted by: thepoliticalpost | January 8, 2008 3:56 PM | Report abuse

The idea that the Republicans are praying for Obama is a joke. Truth of the matter is that he is bringing in Indepenpdents and Republicans in large numbers, something that Hillary could never dream of. Will the Republican nominee bring in Independents and Democrats in the same way post-Bush, don't bet on it my friend. If Obama can win by 9 points over Hillary in lilly white Iowa, he is going to crush the Republicans. I predict a 10 point 300+ electoral college landslide.

Posted by: jnurse | January 8, 2008 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Aussie,

The National Democratic Party has told the Michigan Democratic Party it will not seat the delegates chosen in the Michigan Primary because they threatened New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status. Only New Hampshire's last-minute schedule change preserved its status. The Republican outcome in Michigan will count, but South Carolina is the next state where both the Democratic and Republican outcomes will matter.

Posted by: Netizen | January 8, 2008 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 47%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 24%

GOP:

McCain 35%
Huckabee 24%
Romney 19%%


Storyline: "Familiarity breeds contempt".

Posted by: gorillam | January 8, 2008 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 37%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 28%

GOP:
McCain 35%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 9%
Giuliani 9%

Storyline: This is what counts! Dems will suddenly wake up to the "empty suit" reality of the Obama camnpaign as the media finally stops giving him the free pass. Hillary will be damaged goods, but gets another look. Those excellent Edwards vs. all Republicans numbers keep him in the race. Don't think this will be decided on Super Tuesday...the real script hasn't even been cooked up in the writers' minds yet.

As for the GOP, the picture is more muddied than ever. All candidates hope for Obama as the opponent since he is so vulnerable on substance and wishy-washy in debates when the jabs start flying. But who will deliver the jabs:I predict it will be either Guiliani or McCain and this race will be clear on 6 February.

Posted by: jaysalomon | January 8, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama - 41%
Clinton - 32%
Edwards - 18%
Richardson - 7%
Other - 2%

Republicans:
McCain - 32%
Romney - 30%
Huckabee - 13%
Giuliani - 9%
Paul - 8%
Thompson - 6%
Other - 2%

Headlines: "Obama Inevitable?" "McCain Slips By, Republican Nomination Any Man's Game"

Posted by: jnurse | January 8, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Republicans are licking their chops over Obama. Clinton is a tough one to beat but Obama seems real easy. Obama is real liberal and got a lot of "mo" but the problem is in the details. There are a lot of people out there who will be very afraid of a black liberal and all his friends like Al and Jesse. Obama reminds me of Dean who also had all those kids and buzz. Don't think Clinton won't be selling that story thru the 5th of February. It's not over by far, but the republicans are praying for Obama. At least they have something to hope for.

Posted by: pg1923 | January 8, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Democrat Party

Obama - 40%
Edwards - 30%
Clinton - 28%
Richardson - 2%

Christian Democrat Party

McCain - 30%
Paul - 20%
Romney - 15%
Huck - 15%
Thompson - 10%
Guiliani/Hunter split the diff @ 5% each

storyline: "Hillary, Guiliani, Thompson, Richardson, Hunter vie for cabinet posts"

Posted by: millionea7 | January 8, 2008 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Sorry if this is slightly off topic, but I had a question for you all (I'm an Aussie so don't know the process as well as you guys).

Why does South Carolina get so much more focus than Michigan? Michigan is both earlier in the calendar and is a bigger state, so why the focus on SC?
Also, does anyone give Obama much of a chance in the Michigan primary (given he is from the midwest), or is this Clinton territory?

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 3:44 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 40
Clinton 28
Edwards 25
Richardson 3

Republicans
McCain 33
Romney 27
Huckabee 12
Paul 9
Guiliani 7


Posted by: mphair | January 8, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama 42%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 23%

Republicans:

McCain 32%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 11%

The McCain-Obama race will be a Clinton-Dole re-run. You think a 71-year-old can win a national popularity contest against a handsome, silver-tongued, 43-year-old? Go ahead, old man, make my day !

Posted by: hzwi | January 8, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 41%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 12%

Republicans:
Romney: 30%
McCain: 30%
Huckabee: 15%

Headlines:
Is Obama Unbeatable?
Has Romney Recovered?

Posted by: seriksson | January 8, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Obama 42%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 25%

McCain 35%
Romney 33%
Ron Paul 11%

Obama surges from independent vote, while Edwards closes in on Hillary, but not enough. McCain narrowly edges Romney out due to independents voting for Obama. Romney remains viable, but his candidacy is losing momentum.

Posted by: SofiaMJ | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Oh, and thanks ahead of time to Sarah Lovenheim for wading through all these predictions. Try to get CC to join the 20th century and set up a website entry system. More work up front; almost zero work downstream. How many more States are we going to try to predict before the primaries are over?

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

"All your experts making predictions are men. Think about it.
Posted by: bastet20 | January 8, 2008 02:43 PM"

true, but until a week ago, nearly all the male and female "experts" were predicting hillary for the nom.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 38.3%
Clinton: 30.0%
Edwards: 18.3%

Republicans:

McCain: 31.8%
Romney: 28.2%
Huckabee: 12.2%

Posted by: naylorben | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Dems --
Obama: 41
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 23

Repubs --
McCain: 32
Romney: 28
Huckabee: 16

Storylines: Obama win puts him first in the hearts of donors, Hillary to focus on Feb 5 but short on cash. Romney is toast and GOP comes to terms with the inevitable McCain-Huckabee ticket.

Posted by: meanwilliegrind | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:
Romney 32%
McCain 30%
Huckabee 13%

Story: One Mitt Wonder

Democrats:
Obama 44%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 14%

Story: Over the Hillary

Posted by: Netizen | January 8, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

GOP Race:
McCain, 35%
Romney, 30%
Huckabee, 11%

Democratic Race:
Obama, 42%
Clinton, 26%
Edwards, 22%

Posted by: rolltidetaylor | January 8, 2008 3:40 PM | Report abuse

BEST HEADLINE, SO FAR:

New Hampshire realizes that Hillary is the only person alive who would make a worse president then we currently have.

Posted by: Iowahoosier | January 8, 2008 03:33 PM

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 8, 2008 3:38 PM | Report abuse

kat7: you raise a good point. Should we start counting our coattail chickens before they hatch? [sound of hands rubbing together]

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama 44%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 24%

Republicans:

McCain 34%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 15%

Storyline(s): 1) Independents choose Obama over McCain; lead to Obama rout and surprisingly close GOP finish. 2) Can Obama capitalize and ride wave to victories in delegate-rich (and former Clinton strongholds) California, Florida, and New York? 3) Which GOP candidate will step up and establish himself as a frontrunner?

Posted by: mattwollmers | January 8, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 39%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 21%

McCain: 35%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 19%

Headlines: The new Democrat status quo...Republicans can't shed Romney

Posted by: GBthunder16 | January 8, 2008 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 51.4%
Clinton 23.8
Edwards 14.3

Republicans
McCain 34.1
Romney 33.5
Huckabee 14.8

Still believe Clinton will get nomination but right now it's all Obama.

Posted by: pg1923 | January 8, 2008 3:35 PM | Report abuse

obama 43
clinton 29
edwards 21

mccain 38
romney 25
huckabee 17

Posted by: ezraa | January 8, 2008 3:35 PM | Report abuse

Storyline: Obama fever leads to huge New Hampshire victory; McCain squeaks by and avoids Romney comeback.

Posted by: hlp03 | January 8, 2008 3:34 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 40%
Edwards 30
Clinton 20
Repubs:
McCain 40%
Romney 30
Huckabee 20
New Hampshire realizes that Hillary is the only person alive who would make a worse president then we currently have.

Posted by: Iowahoosier | January 8, 2008 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama-45%
Clinton-29%
Edwards-18%

Republicans

McCain-33%
Romney-31%
Paul-15%

Posted by: hlp03 | January 8, 2008 3:32 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 40%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 22%

Republicans
McCain: 35%
Romney: 27%
Huckabee: 14%
Giuliani: 11%
Paul: 10%
Thompson: 2%

Storyline: Huge Democratic turnout, indies vote heavily in Dem primary, Clinton and Romney on the ropes, McCain and Huckabee to battle for GOP lead in S.C.

Posted by: polsaa | January 8, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Minneapolis Attorney

Obama 41
Clinton 28
Edwards 23

Romney 31
McCain 29
Huckabee 17

Story: "Obama wave drowns Hillary AND McCain"

Turnout in Democratic Primary will be historic, turnout in Republican Primary down from 2000.

Posted by: lavoinha | January 8, 2008 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Obama 31%
Clinton 24%
Edwards 6%
Other 1%
Total votes for Democrats = 62%

McCain 18%
Romney 13%
Huckabee 5%
Other 2%
Total votes for Republicans = 38%

Storyline: NH is no longer a swing state. Big pick-up for Democrats in Nov, 08. Big problem for Senator John Sununu.

Posted by: kat7 | January 8, 2008 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 43%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 7%

Repubs:
McCain 34%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 10%
Thompson 1%

Story line: Obama wins decisively; Clinton camp in disarray; GOP race still uncertain as McCain edges out Romney but fails to gain edge among independents.

Posted by: jm917 | January 8, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

claudialong | January 8, 2008 03:06 PM

That's the Obama Express effect.

Don't tell Hill, Bubba told her it's her magnetic appeal doing wonders for the Democratic party.

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 8, 2008 3:24 PM | Report abuse

i just noticed something interesting visiting the barack and hillary sites, reflective of their national strategies.

on the state tab, hillary has added several recently, and is up to 14 states listed, with links to their own pages.

barack has all 50.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 3:23 PM | Report abuse

I wonder if Huckabee's followers know he's a Reconstructionist [biblical literal] Christian ? He held a fundraiser earlier this week at the Houston home of Dr. Steven Hotze. Hotze is a leader in the controverial Christian Reconstruction movement.

For those unfamiliar with the term, they are radicals who believe that America, and the rest of the world besides, should be governed in accordance with strict Biblical law. And yes, that includes stoning adulterers. Here's a snippet from "A Manifesto for the Christian Church," a 1986 document from an outfit called the Coalition on Revival that was signed by, among others, Steven Hotze:

We affirm that the Bible is not only God's statements to us regarding religion, salvation, eternity, and righteousness, but also the final measurement and depository of fundamental facts of reality and basic principles that God wants all mankind to know in the sphere of law, government, economics, business, education, arts and communication, medicine, psychology, and science. All theories and practices of these spheres of life are only true, right, and realistic to the degree that they agree with the Bible.'

Meanwhile, among the members of the fundraiser's host committee was Baptist minister Rick Scarborough. The founder of Vision America and a self-described "Christocrat," Scarborough made news earlier this year when he argued that the HPV vaccine improperly interferes with God's punishment of sexual license.'

Huckabee is so affable it's hard to beleive his beliefs are as radical as they are, but they are indeed.

Posted by: drindl | January 8, 2008 3:23 PM | Report abuse

As predicted at my Red State Rebels blog this morning:

Obama 45
Edwards 25
Clinton 24

Story line: So this is what history looks like ...

McCain 35
Romney 32
Huckabee 12

Story line: GOP will battle on to February 5 and beyond ...

Posted by: julie | January 8, 2008 3:22 PM | Report abuse

DEMS

Obama 41
Clinton 31
Edwards 22

GOP

McCain 34
Romney 31
Huckabee 15

Storyline: McCain makes his case for front-runner status despite a close win and the call for Clinton to drop out gets LOUD.

Posted by: rainbow_west | January 8, 2008 3:21 PM | Report abuse

zan2468, your 03:09 PM "quote" had me laughing out loud.

Posted by: johng1 | January 8, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Rs:
John McCain 32%
Mitt Romney 31%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Ron Paul 8%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Fred Thompson 5%

Ds:
Barack Obama 54%
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 15%
Bill Richardson 5%
Dennis Kucinich 2%

Headlines: McCain in a squeaker, calls it a "political resurrection" sparking separation of church and state complaints by the MSM. Mitt lives to fight another day because the heavy turnout went to Obama. Huck lives up to expectations and looks forward to the south.

The MSM lovefest with Obama continues. Oprah to join the 0rgy on the road. MSM runs out of complimentary adjectives to describe Obama and is forced to create new ones. Obama crushed so who cares about any other D candidate!

Posted by: dave | January 8, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 19%

Clinton crash leads to staff shakeup, Obama picks up important endorsement on way to Nevada

McCain 30%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 15%

McCain edges out Romney closer than expected as Independents break hard for Obama taking us to Romney's last stand in home state of Michigan.

Posted by: Bubbagove | January 8, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

GOP

McCain 30
Romney 22
Huck 19

Dems

Obama 41
Clinton 30
Edwards 21

Storyline

Clinton and Romney prepare to make last stand.

Posted by: rett_h | January 8, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

I really hope I'm right so I can get "The Fix" t-shirt. Here goes nothing:

Democrats:

Barack Obama 41%
Hillary Clinton 32%
John Edwards 16%
Bill Richardson 10%

Republicans:

John McCain 31%
Mitt Romney 28%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Ron Paul 13%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Fred Thompson 3%

Dem Tagline: "Clinton Campaign Continues to Collapse while Obama's 'Rides the Wave'"

Republican: "Romney Reeling, McCain Trying to Wear Republican Mantle, All Others Still very much Alive."

Posted by: stephen.dreikorn | January 8, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

claudia writes
"OT -- but just curious... anyone else experiencing anomolous winter weather? was 10 here a week ago, today it's 65 -- really warm for northeast."

Tornadoes in WI (near milwaukee) & IL yesterday as well. Convective storms in those areas in Jan are unusual, but not unprecedented. Record warmth here as well, the whopper storms on the west coast are pulling warm air into this area. International Falls hit 40° the other day - same temp as down here in the twin cities, which is extremely rare for this time of year. Back to the single digits in a few days...

Posted by: bsimon | January 8, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama 42
Clinton 31
Edwards 16

"The Obama surge is working!"

Republicans:

Romney 33
McCain 31
Huckabee 15

"Romney is the new come-back kid!"

Posted by: nickoval | January 8, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

FYI on the schedule:

Barack's website shows only two events in the next two days: NJ (odd choice) tomorow, SC the day after.

I could not find any schedule on Hillary's site.

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama: 38%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 23%

Republicans:
McCain: 31%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 12%
Giuliani: 10%
Thompson: 3%

Headlines: D: Obama-roll: Barack dominates in record turnout; Clinton reeling.
R: GOP Repeat: McCain nips Romney; Mitt pins last hopes on home-state of Michigan.

Posted by: timvogeler | January 8, 2008 3:12 PM | Report abuse

Looking past today, the question will be "where next"?

The press is focused on SC, but that's the worst possible turf for Hillary.

The DNC specifically moved up NV to be the next contest (MI and FL were stripped of delegates for breaking the rules). Wouldn't it make more sense for Hillary to try to pull an upset there? According to pollster, she was beating Barack 2-1 before Iowa. She has probably lost that lead, but it's better than fighting him in SC. She needs a win. Will she go there?

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 3:12 PM | Report abuse

Obama 40%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 18 %

Clinton down but not out. However , heads will roll. Look for the return of the white boys . Carville , Begala and others return to put some lipstick on this pig.

McCain 36%
Romney 33%
Huckabee 21%

Huckabee does better than expected. McCain wins a nailbiter over Romney leaving no real front runner. Huckabee wins South Carolina and surges into Feb 5th .

Posted by: brokenglassdemocrat | January 8, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

On the GOP side:

1) John McCain will win. I estimate he will lay claim to at least 32% of the vote among Republican primary voters. He's worked the state hard, and staked everything on a win here, and I'll believe he'll get it. New Hampshire voters like straight talk, and he's delivered. Romney, from what I've seen of him sounds just a tad too polished, too contrived and lacks the genuineness that McCain personifies.

2) Mitt Romney will place second. He'll get 24-26% of the vote, soleley because of the strenghth of his political machine. Many of his supporters see the writing on the wall, that his campaign, though flush with cash (Mostly his own) is running on fumes otherwise, and the enthusiasm just isn;t there to get enough voters out to put him over the top.

3) Mike Huckabee will place a surprisingly strong third. He's riding the wave from Iowa, and acquitted himself well in the debates and at the meetings he's in the state. While he won't be able to count on a huge evangelical base to come out for him here, he has shown that though he is a man of faith, he's also a regular guy, and speaks as one of the people. Chalk Huck up for 14-18%.


On the Democratic side:

1) Barack Obama will win. He's cashed in on his Iowa momnetum, and is poised not only to win, but to do so handily. he's been attracting overflow crowds, something the Clintons (Both of them) have not been able to duplicate. 36-40%.

2) Hillary Rodham Clinton: as much as I'd like to see her finish third again, it ain't gonna happen. While the rats are deserting the beleaguered Clinton ship, Bill still has enough clout among Democrats in the state to keep it respectable, that is if one considers 26-29% respectable....
The handwriting will certainly be on the wall should she lose, especially by such a whopping margin, but don't expect her to throw in the towel right away. I expect her to lose even more badly in SC (A Third place finish may be possible there, since Edwards was born there) but she will hang in there until finally one of the big states she's been counting on sends her the message that the nineties are over.

3)John Edwards: Could it be that he and Obama have struck a deal that would give Edwards a second shot at the Veep slot? Some polls show him picking up some support in NH, but it will not be enough to overtake Mrs. C. 18-22% is about as good as it gets.

Posted by: nealford | January 8, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

Dem:
Obama 41
Clinton 32
Edwards 18

Rep:
McCain 36
Romney 34
Guiliani 13

Headline: Republicans in disarray as is the Clinton campaign. Barrack bandwagon keeps rolling.

Posted by: jdwyer | January 8, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

"All your experts making predictions are men. Think about it.
Posted by: bastet20 | January 8, 2008 02:43 PM"

Those guys do not have a life, they have no shame and this is what they consider the most fun in the world.

They couldn't find a female "expert" for the opposite reasons. Think about it.

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 8, 2008 3:09 PM | Report abuse

Obama 42
Clinton 30
Edwards 19

Romney 32
McCain 31
Huck 14

Storyline: Bill Clinton lambasts
the biased media, then blubbers on
camera "Ah'm gonna punch Bill Safire
on the nose!"

Posted by: zan2468 | January 8, 2008 3:09 PM | Report abuse

now here's a telling story:

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- New Hampshire's governor predicts a record turnout Tuesday in his state's first-in-the-nation primary, as the Secretary of State's office reports the unusually high number of voters so far has some polling locations running low on ballots.

'Governor John Lynch tells CNN that he expects half a million people to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries.

New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan tells CNN that his office has received phone calls that in certain locations, polling places are getting low on ballots -- in particular, Democratic ballots -- and that additional ballots are being driven out to various polling places across the Granite State.

Posted by: drindl | January 8, 2008 3:06 PM | Report abuse

My Predictions from NH!

McCain 35
Romney 33
Giuliani 12
Huckabee 10
Paul 8


Obama 43
Clinton 29
Edwards 18
Richardson 7

Clinton and Romney both have the funds to stay around. Clinton, however may not have a reason

Posted by: rleored | January 8, 2008 3:06 PM | Report abuse

Obama 44%
Clinton 23%
Edwards 18%

Romney 30%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 15%

Independents propel Obama, crush McCain

Posted by: wpost7 | January 8, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38.5%
Clinton 30.1%
Edwards 21.3%

McCain 35.4%
Romney 32.8%
Huckabee 17.1%

Headline: For Dems: Hillary soldiers on to her last stand - Tsunami Tuesday. For GOP: McCain back, but barely. Wide open race.

Posted by: jeffersonbaaron | January 8, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 39%
Hillary 30%
Edwards 18%

Republicans:
McCain: 36%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 13%

McCain redeemed; Obama-mania accelerates; Hillary bloodied but unbowed

Posted by: ssomo | January 8, 2008 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Republicans
McCain: 37%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 14%

Democrats
Obama: 40%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 19%

shirt size XL

Posted by: DROSE1 | January 8, 2008 3:00 PM | Report abuse

From the great state of Indiana, where it'll all be decided well before we get a chance to vote...

Obama 39%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 22%

McCain 37%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 19%

Posted by: bayernfan | January 8, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

"All your experts making predictions are men. Think about it.
Posted by: bastet20 | January 8, 2008 02:43 PM"

You are either (a) psychic or (b) a disgruntled Clinton supporter. No, wait, don't reply. We'll know the answer by tomorrow.

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

My predictions, watching the race from Sweden:

Democrats
Obama 40 %
Clinton 30 %
Edwards 20 %

Republicans
McCain 39 %
Romney 29 %
Huckabee 14 %

The straws are running out for Clinton. Edwards on his way out. GOP race wide open.

Posted by: i95marto | January 8, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

DEMS:

Obama 39
Edwards 27
Clinton 22

REP:

McCain 31
Romney 26
Huckabee15
Paul 13
Rudy 8

Story lines:
DEMS (Should be): HRC rejected by 78% of voters in NH.
DEMS (will be): Can Obama be stopped.
END OF THE ROAD: Bill Richardson
on life support: HRC

REP (will be): McCain back from the dead
REP (should be): Money can't buy Mitt love
RIP: Mitt, Duncan Hunter
On life support: Rudy

Posted by: leuchtman | January 8, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

ABC News blog reporting that NH Secretary of State is sending more ballots to several towns that are already running out - some Democratic strongholds, others Republican leaning and/or independent. Looks like music to the ears of the Obama and McCain camps.

Posted by: ksullivan | January 8, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 38
Clinton 34
Edwards 22
Richardson 5

Story: It's 1984

Republicans

McCain 36
Romney 28
Huckabee 20
Guiliani 8
Paul 5

Story: Will the conservative establishment embrace McCain?

Posted by: kauffmanc | January 8, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Romney +.01

UNSTOPPABLE MITTMANIA!

Clinton -20 (minus 20)

HILLARY, WHERE'S THE BOUNCE?

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 8, 2008 2:56 PM | Report abuse


'LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas (AP) -- A deadly tornado was reported in central Arkansas Tuesday, a day after a freak cluster of January twisters sprung up in the unseasonably warm Midwest.'

OT -- but just curious... anyone else experiencing anomolous winter weather? was 10 here a week ago, today it's 65 -- really warm for northeast.

Posted by: drindl | January 8, 2008 2:56 PM | Report abuse

Given the reports of a tsunami turnout I predict:

Democrats:

Obama 48%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 16%
Richardson 4%
Others 7%

Obamamania bounces from Iowa to New Hampshire, the Clinton Restoration losing steam

Republicans

McCain 34%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 17%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 10%
Thompson 2%

Straight Talk Express is back on track.

Posted by: jimd52 | January 8, 2008 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 39
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 18

Republicans:

McCain: 35
Romney: 29
Huckabee: 19

Storyline: When/will Clinton and Romney drop out?

Posted by: adam.margeson | January 8, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 40%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 18%

Republicans:
Romney 28%
McCain 27%
Giuliani 12%

Storyline: Obama's "New HOPEshire"; Independents Overwhelmingly Vote Dem, Hurting McCain

Posted by: ontariogop | January 8, 2008 2:49 PM | Report abuse


Obama - 39 percent
Clinton - 27 percent
Edwards - 19 percent
Richardson - 7 percent

Headline: Tears of joy as Obamamania sweeps New England.

McCain - 32 percent
Romney - 30 percent
Huckabee - 15 percent
Paul - 10 percent
Guiliani - 8 percent

Headline: McCain holds of Romney; Guiliani places fifth behind Paul.

Posted by: duane_wright48 | January 8, 2008 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama %38
Clinton %34
Edwards %17

GOP:
McCain 32%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 14%


Storyline : Money can't buy Mitt votes as Lazarus-like McCain wins.
Clinton second but stubbornly hanging on to coattails of Obama, can she stop him?

Posted by: declan.crowe | January 8, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 42%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 23%
Richardson: 2%
Other: 2%

Reps:

McCain: 31%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 18%
Giuliani: 10%
Paul: 6%
Thompson: 5%
Other: 2%

Storylines:

Obama-fever continues...South Carolina, Nevada now likely wins for Illinois Senator...but will the momentum continue until Super Tuesday?

McCain edges out Romney, but most independents go for Obama...set up for a 3-way showdown between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee in South Carolina...Giuliani, Thompson just about toast...

Posted by: mehaddad | January 8, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama - 41%
Clinton - 27%
Edwards - 18%
Richardson - 11%

Reps:

McCain - 34%
Romney - 30%
Paul - 13%
Guiliani - 10%
Huckabee -10%

Storyline: "Obama Wins Another! Bill Clinton Continues with Fairly Tale Babble. Mac is Back. Romney's Campaign on the Edge"

Posted by: mb63143 | January 8, 2008 2:44 PM | Report abuse

All your experts making predictions are men. Think about it.

Posted by: bastet20 | January 8, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 17%

McCain 36%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 15%

Storyline: Obama - its all over except for the shouting. McCain - back in the driver's seat.

Posted by: johnsonc2 | January 8, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Republicans
McCain 30%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 19%

Democrats
Obama 44%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%

Storyline: Clinton demolished by Obamania!
Romney's heartbeat surprisingly strong. With the Democratic race all but over, has the Republican race just begun?

Posted by: jnoel002 | January 8, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

They finally are paying attention. They are fascists nto because anyone calls them this. They gop are SOME of their supporters are fascists due to their actions. What is teh definition of the word?

"Fascism is an authoritarian political ideology (generally tied to a mass movement) that considers individual and social interests subordinate to the interests of the state or party. Fascists seek to forge a type of national unity, usually based on (but not limited to) ethnic, cultural, racial, religious attributes. The key attribute is intolerance of others: other religions, languages, political views, economic systems, cultural practices, etc. Various scholars attribute different characteristics to fascism, but the following elements are usually seen as its integral parts: nationalism, statism, militarism, totalitarianism, anti-communism, corporatism, populism, collectivism, and opposition to political and economic liberalism."

they are watching us :)

"Liberal Fascism
A conservative slur no longer.

By Rich Lowry

Editor's note: This column is available exclusively through King Features Syndicate. For permission to reprint or excerpt this copyrighted material, please contact: kfsreprint@hearstsc.com, or phone 800-708-7311, ext 246).

The f-bomb of American politics is the word "fascist," routinely hurled by the left at conservatives. Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater were smeared as incipient fascists, and George W. Bush now receives the honor, along with practically anyone to the right of Rosie O'Donnell on a college campus.

The operational meaning of the word "fascism" for most liberals who invoke it is usually "shut up." It's meant to bludgeon conservatives into silence. But many on the left also genuinely believe that there is something fascistic in the DNA of contemporary conservatism, as if Republican Party conventions would get their rightful treatment only if they were worshipfully filmed by Leni Riefenstahl.

"

R
u

f

u

s

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Several news outlets are reporting huge turnout - far beyond anticipated. It appears that indpendents are breaking for the Democrats. Some places are concerned about running out of Democratic ballots. I smell a landslide for Obama.

Posted by: jimd52 | January 8, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Dem:

Obama 51%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 19%


GOP:

McCain 32%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 16%


Storyline: Obama takes majority, Clinton to skip until Feb 5: McCain eeks out win over Romney, Romney clings to hope in Michigan.

Posted by: mlazar | January 8, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama - 42
Clinton - 35
Edwards - 17

Republicans

McCain - 34
Romney - 30
Paul - 16
Huckabee - 12

Storyline

Clinton stops the bleeding still has large hurdle to overcome while the Republicans are in complete disarray, McCain fails in bid to become establishment candidate.

Posted by: skynole_5 | January 8, 2008 2:39 PM | Report abuse

Democratic New Hampshire Primary - Prediction Time!

Who do you predict will win the Democratic New Hampshire Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1446

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Republican New Hampshire Primary - Prediction Time!

Who do you predict will win the Republican New Hampshire Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1445

.

Posted by: PollM | January 8, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Obama 46%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 17%

McCain 36%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 10%
Guiliani 8%

Obama: Can he be stopped?
Is it a McCain/Huckabee race for the GOP?

Posted by: Joshmsu | January 8, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 39%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 20%

Repubs:

McCain: 30%
Romney: 26%
Paul: 14%

Story Line: Clinton, Giuliani forced into Feb 5th Strategy, Can it work?

Posted by: ryan.crowley | January 8, 2008 2:37 PM | Report abuse

My guess:

Obama 44%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 6%
Kucinich 2%

McCain 30%
Romney 27%
Paul 21%
Huckabee 17%
Thompson 3%
Guiliani 2%

3 headline articles:

Obama tightens grip on nomination with clear victory in NH, strong showing of independent voters.

Is it over for Hillary?

McCain takes the lead in the granite state. GOP race gets more unpredictable with no clear front runner.

Posted by: grimmix | January 8, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Dem:
Obama 41%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 20%

Rep:
McCain 33%
Romney 29%
Paul 14%

Story lines: Obama-mania and When will Romney pull out?

Posted by: alljunkusa | January 8, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38
Clinton 34
Edwards 21

McCain 31
Romney 22
Huckabee 17
Paul 13
Guiliani 9

Storyline: Clinton keeps it close (Comeback Kid II?) but Romney doesn't; Giuliani comes in poor 5th

Posted by: billmcg | January 8, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama 41%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 27&

Gop... I really could care less, but here goes

Mccain 33%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 27%

Story line
Democrats future is clear
heavy fog on the GOP

Posted by: pvogel88 | January 8, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

GOP
Romney 27%
McCain 24%
Paul 16%
Huckabee 14%
Thompson 9%

Democrats
Clinton 34%
Edwards 34%
Obama 30%

Posted by: grannymiller | January 8, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 46%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 17%

Republicans:

McCain: 34%
Romney: 26%
Huckabee: 20%

Storylines: "Record turnout of first time voters continues," "Obama vs Clinton a true conflict of generations," "Huckabee with strong showing in independent NH"

In short, this election will quickly become about those candidates with the ability to inspire us. So many of us, myself included, want to turn the page on the bitter partisanship and feel proud to be Americans again.

Posted by: salilgarg | January 8, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Obama 47

Clinton 31

Edwards 16


McCain 38

Romney 31

Huckabee 28

Story line: Giuliani disappears again, must be time to put the kids to bed

Posted by: 33rdStreet | January 8, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

With the benefit of knowing that turnout early has been huge, as I finish lunch I predict the following results:

Rs:
John McCain 35%
Mitt Romney 22%
Mike Huckabee 17%
Ron Paul 16%
Rudy Giuliani 5%
Fred Thompson 3%

Ds:
Barack Obama 40%
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 24%
Bill Richardson 9%
Dennis Kucinich 2%

Headlines: McCain, Huck look good for SC;
Clinton, Edwards to continue; Kucinich vows to get on ballot in TX.

Paul will not be mentioned.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 8, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama 40%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 22%

GOP:

McCain 31%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 25%

Headline: Obama marches on to the Nomination, while GOP still can't make up their minds.

Posted by: paulmcmaster | January 8, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 5%

McCain 31%
Romney 24%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 13%
Paul 10%
Thompson 9%
Hunter 1%

Clinton tries to frame close second as "Comeback kid." It doesn't work as well, however, as Obama is slightly more exciting than Paul Tsongas. Hillary pulls off upset win in Nevada, but still loses on Feb 5.

Republicans: 3-way race by Feb. 5 between Huckabee and McCain/Guiliani.

Posted by: nyfan304 | January 8, 2008 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 40
Clinton: 32
Edwards: 17

Republicans
McCain: 30
Romney: 25
Huckabee: 15

Clinton falls short of Obama again, we may see another break down...

Posted by: amanda12338 | January 8, 2008 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Dems

Obama 51%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 19%

Storyline - with over 50% of Dem vote, Obama campaing on cruise control; Richardson drops out; In a press release that no one reads, Kucinich explains how he can still win the nomination; lastly, 80-85% of all registered voters in NH turn out vote, mostly to Obama's benefit, which will be a big part of the story

Reps

McCain 36%
Romney 36%
Paul 14%

Storyline - McCain and Romney end in virtual tie - Romney does better among Republicans and McCain does better amoung independents - race a mess, Rudy is ecstatic

Posted by: allensrose | January 8, 2008 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Obama -- 37%
Clinton -- 35%
Edwards -- 24%

McCain -- 35%
Romney -- 29%
Huckabee -- 15%

Headlines -- McCain, not Obama, grabs independents; Clinton beats expectations and declares victory despite second place finish

Posted by: spg28 | January 8, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 40%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 28%

"There's no crying in New Hampshire!"

Pubs:

McCain 38%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 21%

"I'll give you amnesty if you drop out tonight Mitt."

Posted by: CMc62480 | January 8, 2008 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38
Clinton 29
Edwards 21

Storyline: Can Clinton hang on until Feb 5? (She can and will). Edwards also a beneficiary from Clinton fall.

McCain 33
Romney 24
Huckabee 20
Guilliani: 7

Storyline: Is Rudy finished after 2nd single-digit showing? Huckabee surprisingly strong in N.E. Not just for evangelicals anymore. McCain is back, but can McCain hold on in the South against surging Huckabee?

Posted by: jaffe773 | January 8, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Democrat

Obama 46
Clinton 24
Edwards 24

Republican

Romney 32
McCain 29
Huckabee 17

Story: Obama wave hurts McCain.

Posted by: Jeff.Nickle | January 8, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Storyline:

"Hillary Wins New Hamphsire, Weeps with Joy"

"Romney Wins New Hampshire, Looks Forward to South Carolina, Becomes an Evangelical"

Posted by: purchandregist | January 8, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Democratic Primary:
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 19%
Bill Richardson: 10%
Kucinich: 2%

Republican Primary:
McCain: 36%
Romney: 22%
Paul: 14%
Giuliani 13%
Huckabee: 11%
Thompson: 4%

Posted by: mlynum | January 8, 2008 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama -- 48%
Clinton -- 25%
Edwards -- 23%

Republicans
McCain -- 31%
Romney -- 30%
Paul -- 16%

Headline: Obama Landslide, McCain By A Nose

Posted by: maddymappo | January 8, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

NH Predictions

Dems

Obama 47
Clinton 30
Edwards 15
Richardson 5
Others 3


Repubs

McCain 32
Romney 32
Paul 12
Huckabee 10
Guiliani 7
Thompson 3
Obama (write in) 2
Others 2

Headline

OBAMA EXPRESS ROLLS ON, HILLARY LAYS OFF/FIRES TOP STAFFERS, MC CAIN COMEBACK;REPUBLICANS LOOK TO SOUTH CAROLINA AS NEXT BIG BATTLE

Posted by: krc23 | January 8, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

(Forgot to include the storylines...)

Obama's strength is the wild card. How well he does will determine how well John McCain and Ron Paul do. Here are my predictions:

Democrats:

Obama 38%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 23%, Richardson 4%

Media storyline: Bill Clinton's remarks about Obama's "fairy tale" credited with sabotaging an already wounded Hillary.

Republicans:

If Obama finishes with less than 40% of the vote: McCain 31%, Romney 28%, Paul 15%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 10%, Thompson 2%

Media storyline: McCain's comeback is complete. Ron Paul takes third over Huckabee and beats Giuliani again.

If Obama finishes with more than 40% of the vote: Romney 34%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 16%, Paul 11%, Giuliani 7%, Thompson 1%

Media storyline: McCain bows out gracefully, it's Huckabee vs. Romney in the South Carolina semifinals before their final battle with Giuliani in Florida.

I wrote more about this on my own blog here:

http://www.theseventen.com/2008/01/new-hampshire-predictions-rd.html

Posted by: theseventen | January 8, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Obama +20

Alternate storyline:

Billary return to their phony "home state", N.Y., rustle up the usual suspects for a week-long prayer revival-last rites "WE WUZ ROBBED" left-wing conspiracy spinfest. Jesse Jackson will be master of ceremonies.

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 8, 2008 2:16 PM | Report abuse

DEM
Obama: 47
Clinton 28
Edwards: 19

REP
Romney: 30
McCain: 30
Huckabee: 19

Headlines: "Slamma O-Bama, Thank You Mamma; Rudy & Fred Finish Last, But Win"

Posted by: iapitz | January 8, 2008 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Chip 'the seer' Shirley's picks.

Democrats
Obama: 41%
Edwards: 28%
Clinton 25%

Republicans
McCain: 31%
Huckabee: 28%
Romney: 21%

Storyline: "ObamaRama!"
Over the Hill', Mitt No More!


Posted by: ChipShirley | January 8, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse


Democrats:

Obama 42%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 23%, Richardson 6%.

Storyline: Hillary embraces change -- to her own campaign staff. Vows to continue; adopts Guiliani's big-state strategy of Feb. 5th.

Republicans:

Romney 31%, McCain 30%, Paul 15%, Huckabee 12% Guiliani 10%, Thompson 2%.

Storyline: Romney's narrow victory, McCains strong finish, and Ron Paul's surpise third place showing throws GOP race into further disarray.

Jack McDermott
Tallahassee, Florida

Posted by: marathonjack | January 8, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Shoot, missed that "top three" and top story.

Well, obvious what the top three are, but the top story is going to be Obama's double digit win over Hillary, and Romney neck and neck with Huckabee for #2

Posted by: KDCampbell | January 8, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Obama's strength is the wild card. How well he does will determine how well John McCain and Ron Paul do. Here are my predictions:

Democrats:

Obama 38%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 23%, Richardson 4%

Republicans:

If Obama finishes with less than 40% of the vote: McCain 31%, Romney 28%, Paul 15%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 10%, Thompson 2%

If Obama finishes with more than 40% of the vote: Romney 34%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 16%, Paul 11%, Giuliani 7%, Thompson 1%

I wrote more about this on my own blog here:

http://www.theseventen.com/2008/01/new-hampshire-predictions-rd.html

Posted by: theseventen | January 8, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

New Hampshire, 2008 Predictions:

Democrats:

1. Barack Obama 51%
2. John Edwards 24%
3. Hillary Rodham Clinton - 20%

Republicans:
1. John McCain 32%
2. Mike Huckabee 24%
3. Mitt Rommney 18%

The story line: Edward and Huckabee defy expectations

Posted by: fzheng501 | January 8, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse


My predicts for the GOP NH Primary

1. McCain 36%
2. Romney 20%
3. Huckabee 19%
4. Paul 9.5%
5. Giuliani 8.5%
6. Thompson 6%
7. Hunter 1%

My predicts for the NH Dem. Primary:
1. Obama 39%
2. Clinton 29%
3. Edwards 26%
4. Richardson 5%
5. Kucinich .7%
6. Gravel .3 %

Posted by: KDCampbell | January 8, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 42%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 20%

Line:
Obama brings record numbers of young voters and independents into the process.

Republicans:
McCain 31%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 15%

Line:
Republican race is up for grabs.

Posted by: trmasonic | January 8, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

For the Dems:

Obama 34%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 25%
Richardson 7%

Story: Obama surge continues but Hillary isn't out - never underestimate the power of a political machine.

For the GOP:

McCain 35%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Thompson 8%
Guiliani 7%

Story: McCain rises from the ashes and Romney's going down in flames.

Posted by: -pamela | January 8, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

My prediction: Major blowout for Obama.

They are running out of Dem ballots in NH which means huge independent vote which means big numbers for Obama. Hillary may cry for real tonight.

Posted by: zb95 | January 8, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Here goes:

Obama: 42
Hillary: 35
Edwards: 23

McCain: 42
Romney: 39
Huckabee: 19

Posted by: 37coville | January 8, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 47%
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 25%

Republicans:

McCain: 35%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 16%

Storyline: Storied Clinton dynasty career over; McCain throws Republican race wide open.

Posted by: Anis_Shivani | January 8, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

GOP:

McCain - 40%
Romney -- 39%
Huckabee -- 10%
Headline: Mac is Back! (Press will pimp this as a huge win for McCain despite closeness of actual vote.)

Dems:

Obama -- 46%
Clinton -- 32%
Edwards -- 20%

Headline: Full of Should Hillary Quit? Obama Unstoppable! Lots of press stories on why Clinton lost which manage to not touch the way she has been savaged by the press. (And I'm looking at you Chris Matthews.)

Posted by: boldbooks | January 8, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Obama +20

"U.S. TO HILLARY: DROP OUT"

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 8, 2008 2:01 PM | Report abuse

Jerry, if youth voters are showing up for primaries and caucuses(!) over winter break, exactly why will they fail to show up in November? CW on the youth vote was wrong about IA, and it will be wrong about NH today (which is already heading for massive turnout according to reports). The game is different in 2008. I've been saying this for over a year now. I wonder when the Republicans will believe it.

Posted by: Nissl | January 8, 2008 2:01 PM | Report abuse

NH:

Obama 37
Edwards 28
Clinton 26
Richardson 9

McCain 32
Romney 27
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 6

is how I would call it.

Posted by: bokonon13 | January 8, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 37%
Obama 35%
Edwards 19%

Youth vote is a no-show, women console Clinton and shock Obama.

McCain 40%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 15%

Republicans stay home. Independents stick with their main man. McCains last primary victory.

Of course, I don't really beleive any of this. I just figured an upset pick was my only chance!!!

Posted by: youcrew | January 8, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Here is my take on the Granite State

Dems
Obama-50%
Clinton-24%
Edwards-17%

Headline-"Obama Doubles Clinton"

GOP
McCain-38%
Romney-32%
Paul-16%

Headline "McCain comes rearing back"

With Huckabee tied at around 15%

Posted by: AndyR3 | January 8, 2008 1:59 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 45%
Edwards 19%
Clinton 12%

Republicans
McCain 44%
Romney 12%
Hucklebee 0.4%
Paul 0%

Storylines:

Obama becomes the all-powerful, inevitable Dem nominee. Hillary has break-down; checks into hospital!

McCain's Straight-talk express gets a tune up and lube job! Runs over all others!

Posted by: johng1 | January 8, 2008 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:

McCain: 32
Romney: 28
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 11
Giuliani: 9
Thompson: 2

Democrats:

Obama: 42
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 16
Richardson: 6
Kucinich: 2

"Edwards, Romney crippled, vow to march all the way to the convention."

Posted by: cdmontgo | January 8, 2008 1:58 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 9%
Rest (Thompson, Hunter, etc.) 5%

McCain wins his only state in the GOP Primary. Romney's campaign tanks with only a few western states going for him. Huckabee nearly has the nomination wrapped up after Super Tuesday.

Posted by: chad | January 8, 2008 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama - 41%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 20%

Republicans

McCain - 35%
Romney - 26
Huckabee - 11%


Twin Storylines on Wednesday through this weekend:

"Obama Now Presumptive Nominee, Clinton Defeated"

"McCain & Huckabee in 2-Way Fight Through Super Tuesday"

Posted by: JacksonLanders | January 8, 2008 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Part of me wants to underplay expectations, but this is what I actually think:

Obama 46
Clinton 32
Edwards 18
Richardson 4

"Obama campaign does it again... Clinton campaign teetering on the brink as aides ponder how they can continue"

McCain 33
Romney 30
Huckabee 14
Paul 11
Giuliani 10
Thompson 2

"McCain in a squeaker; the contest turns to MI where Romney will make his last stand."

Posted by: Nissl | January 8, 2008 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 42%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 15%

Republicans:
McCain 40%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 14%

Storyline: Obama set to run the table...Hillary, Romney gasping...Edwards is over.

Posted by: jameslmhst | January 8, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama 39%
Clinton 36%
Edwards 14%


GOP
McCain 39%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 19%

Line: Comeback's not a kid anymore: independents break for McCain, cost Obama a decisive victory.


Posted by: jasonbakeresq | January 8, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 45%
Clinton: 28%
Edwards: 15%

Dem storyline: Huge turnout produces big win for Obama.

Romney: 33%
McCain: 31%
Huckabee: 16%

GOP storyline: Romney's organization and money gives him surprise victory, denies McCain a win.

Posted by: randmtask7 | January 8, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

My predictions:

Dems:

Obama - 43%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 14%

GOP:

McCain - 36%
Romney - 34%
Huckabee - 14%

Story Line: Independents go heavy for Obama, Clinton reeling, Edwards campaign on life-support. Loss of independents hurts McCain, allows Romney to come in close second and keep his campaign alive.

Posted by: cbl-pdx | January 8, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 38%
Hillary: 31%
Edwards: 23%

Republicans
McCain: 33%
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 17%

Storyline: "Voting block that won't turn up in November propels Obama to nomination. Republicans laughing their asses off."

Posted by: jerrymcm1970 | January 8, 2008 1:49 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 35
Edwards: 18

Republicans
McCain: 34%
Romney: 35
Huckabee: 15

Posted by: henryvu | January 8, 2008 1:48 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 39%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 20%

Republicans
McCain 32%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 11%

"Clinton is down, but not out. Super Tuesday and Super-Delegates keep her in the race."

Posted by: elanmel | January 8, 2008 1:48 PM | Report abuse

Not too many folks picking Romney. He's still in this thing, you know. His Sunday debate made things close.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: parkerfl | January 8, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 43%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 19%

Republicans
Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Paul 14%

Storyline: Obama powers Romney to Victory. Carville rides in to rescue Hillary.

Posted by: kahndo | January 8, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

BHO 39%
HRC 32%
JE 21%

"Clinton looks to Super Tuesday"

Republicans

McCain 41%
Romney 27%

"Mac is Back!"

Posted by: jesuscastillon | January 8, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

My picks:

Democrats:
Obama - 42%
Clinton - 32%
Edwards - 25%

Republicans:
McCain - 32%
Huckabee - 25%
Romney - 20%

Posted by: lhorner | January 8, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse


Obama: 37%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards 18%

McCain: 34%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 24%

Storyline for Democrats: Clinton attack ads close the gap in NH, but Obama unstoppable as Democrats rally around the charismatic new front runner.

Sub-Storyline: Edwards to drop out of the race?

Storyline for Republicans: Obama's gain is McCain's loss as NH closer than expected. Republican primary still wide open.

Sub-Storyline: Huckabee expanding appeal beyond evangelicals?

Posted by: jcrozier1 | January 8, 2008 1:41 PM | Report abuse

Dems Barack Obama 38% Hillary Clinton 29% John Edwards 27% Reps John McCain 36% Mitt Romney 30% Mike Huckabee 22% Rudy Giuliani 9% Storyline: Obama continues to gain support amongst Democrats;Clinton will continue to campaign through Super Tuesday,then cede the nomination to Obama.I am surprised that you do not mention the impact of Oprah's endorsement of Senator Obama. And,Romney will also hang on until Super Tuesday. McCain will also reclaim the mantle of the favorite for the GOP. Obama'08!!!!

Posted by: THEALG | January 8, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama: 38.3%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 18.3%

"Short political résumé no problem for Obama.

"Chance for Clinton return to White House looks grim."

"Ambulance chasers need not apply."


Republicans

McCain: 31.8%
Romney: 28.2%
Huckabee: 12.2%

"New Hampshire Republicans go for Maverick but similar successes in early states unlikely."

"Can a second silver for Romney lead him gold?"

"Chuck Norris may be able to kill two stones with one bird, but he can't get New Hampshire voters to turnout for Huck."


"General Election: Obama vs. ?"

Posted by: crstjohn | January 8, 2008 1:39 PM | Report abuse

New Hampshire predictions:

Democrats:
Obama -- 39
Clinton -- 27
Edwards -- 24

Republicans:
McCain -- 32
Romney -- 23
Huckabee -- 19

Story(ies) - Romney loses by much greater margin than expected in home area, and is done (officially pulls out Feb 6). Ron Paul surprises with 15%. Edwards does better than expected and is poised to be the alternative to Obama for Democrats going forward.

Posted by: dbeno1 | January 8, 2008 1:38 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama, 41%
Clinton, 32%
Edwards, 17%

Republicans
McCain, 35%
Romney, 29%
Huckabee, 16%

Storyline: Romney, Clinton to prepare for last stands in Michigan, South Carolina

Posted by: daniel | January 8, 2008 1:38 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 39
Clinton: 35
Edwards: 21

Republicans:

McCain: 36
Romney: 26
Huckabee: 14
Paul: 12

Posted by: maths887 | January 8, 2008 1:38 PM | Report abuse

39 Obama
25 Clinton
28 Edwards
8 Richardson

With a Clinton third place showing she is anointed the comeback kid because the media feels sorry for her after she cried yesterday(snark). Establishment asks Hillary to drop out in fear of backlash from the AA community and the eminent thumping she will take in South Carolina for the sake of the party.

Posted by: TennGurl | January 8, 2008 1:37 PM | Report abuse

For the sake of the Democratic Party --and the nation--Hillary should do what Joe Gibbs has done: RESIGN NOW. I predict it will only get worse for her.

Headlines: Obama 2, Hillary 0
and, Truly, the Mac is Back!

My take on the New Hampshire voting:
Democratic:
Obama 41%
Hillary 24
Edwards 21
Richardson 8%
Others 6%

Republicans:
McCain 37%
Romney 20%
Paul 13%
Rudy 12
Huckabee8
Others 10%

Fred Thomspson could not get any traction in New Hampshire and left early; he should do quite well in South Carolina. But, his candidacy is going nowhere unless he pulls a win in SC.

The race for the nominations should be over by Wednesday, February 6th.

Posted by: ArmyVet | January 8, 2008 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 52%
Clinton: 23%
Edwards: 16%

Storyline: Edwards concedes, but Hillary prolongs the inevitable. Obama surges to double digit leads in California, national polls. It's over before he even gets to South Carolina.

GOP:

Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 25%

Storyline: Independents flock to Obama, hurting McCain and helping Huckabee surprise with strong showing. GOP is the new BCS; no one wants to win this thing!

Posted by: hcase | January 8, 2008 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 45%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 20%
Richardson: 4%

Story: Obama momentum shows no signs of stopping; Clinton faces crucial decision. Richardson decides not to go on.

Republicans:
McCain: 32%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 18%
Paul: 9%
Guiliani: 8%
Thompson: 2%

Story: McCain, in a skweaker, overcomes a late Romney surge; both claim momentum. Huckabee third, now focuses on SC. Guiliani finishes behind Paul, vows to go on. Thompson drops out; may endorse McCain.

Rebublicans:

Posted by: billbolducinmaine | January 8, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Obama 36
Clinton 29
Edwards 25

Billary R.I.P.


McCain 35
Rommey 29
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 10


Mac is Back and he's gonna win


my prediction?
Mcain and Obama will race for the presidential and McCain will win. :-)

Posted by: trekde | January 8, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Dem

Obama - 46
Clinton - 27
Edwards - 19

Republican

McCain - 32
Romney - 27
Huckabee - 15
Rudy - 14

Story line Dem - "Hillary cries - but this time for real - as electorate rejects old guard and sweeps Obama to victory"

Story line Repub - "McCain and able - a rejuvenated McCain celebrates by vowing to bomb Massachusetts if elected president"

Posted by: justj | January 8, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Okay, Chris. Here's your winner. I want a FIX tee-shirt signed by you!

DEM
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 25%

GOP
McCain: 33%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 14%

Thank You!

Posted by: WriteKing | January 8, 2008 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 42
Clinton: 33
Edwards: 20

Reps:

McCain 34
Romney 28
Huckabee 13

Story Line (for both): No stopping them now!

Posted by: tetorrance | January 8, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

Obama 36%
Edwards 28%
Clinton 26%

Storyline: The reality is it's down to whether or not Edwards can slow Obama's momentum.

McCain 35%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 17%

Storyline: Rudy is on the ropes. Republican race is a nightmare(for them).

Posted by: MisterJackHere | January 8, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

jonathanmstevens: saw that; looks very interesting. Similar to what happened in IA.

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 50
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 15

Republicans:
McCain - 30
Romney - 29
Huckabee - 15

Posted by: zb95 | January 8, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Obama- 40
Clinton- 29
Edwards- 21

McCain- 35
Romney- 30
Huckabee- 13

"THE NICE GUYS CAN FINISH FIRST!!
"The Obamania SURGE is on!!"
"GOP is now McCain's to lose."

Posted by: pol-analyst | January 8, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 35
Obama 33
Edwards 25

"New Hampshire Mess! Ballet shortfall blamed for Obama loss"

Romney 33
McCain 31
Huckabee 11
Paul 11

"Romney holds on, Independents shun Republicans"

Posted by: jgale2 | January 8, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama - 42%
Clinton - 24%
Edwards - 22%

Storyline: Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States?

Republicans:

McCain - 34%
Romney - 25%
Huckabee - 15%

Storyline: McCain is the "comeback kid," and Mike Huckabee is not a one hit wonder!

Posted by: vlewis | January 8, 2008 1:26 PM | Report abuse

my apologies for the double post

Posted by: jonathanmstevens | January 8, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama 50%
Edwards 24%
Clinton 22%
Other 4%

Storyline - Obama wins TKO in second round

Republicans:

McCain 27%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 16%
Paul 12%
Rudy 11%
Thompson 10%
Other 2%

Storyline - Applications are still being accepted.

Posted by: optimyst | January 8, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Republicans
McCain: 35
Romney: 32
Huckabee: 14

Democrats
Obama: 36
Clinton: 32
Edwards: 30

Richardson drops his campaign after devestating defeat, McCain and Romney go head to head in Michigan with Huckabee falling by the wayside.

Posted by: maaraj | January 8, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Folks, have you seen the turnout stories that are filtering out of NH? The NH Elections Commission rushing extra ballots to democratic and independent strongholds. Turnout possibly approaching 70%?? I may have been too cautious in predicting a mid double digit spread for Obama. Also, there may be enough independents going around for both Obama and McCain to win convincingly (probably means >5% for McCain and >10% for Obama).

Posted by: jonathanmstevens | January 8, 2008 1:23 PM | Report abuse

Folks, have you seen the turnout stories that are filtering out of NH? The NH Elections Commission rushing extra ballots to democratic and independent strongholds. Turnout possibly approaching 70%?? I may have been to cautious in predicting a mid double digit spread for Obama. Also, there may be enough independents going around for both Obama and McCain to win convincingly (probably means >5% for McCain and >10% for Obama).

Posted by: jonathanmstevens | January 8, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 43
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 19

McCain: 34
Romney: 31
Huckabee: 13

After Loss, Clinton Brings in Husband's Old Advisors . . . Can Romney Survive to Super Tuesday Without a Primary Win?

Posted by: bsmith | January 8, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Is there a Des Moines Register poll? I agree with that.

Ds:
Obama - 43%
Clinton - 27%
Edwards - 20%
Richardson - 8%
Other - 2%
Still Obama!

McCain - 32%
Romney - 31%
Huckabee - 15%
Paul - 12%
Giuliani - 8%

Wide Open (it's a mess)

Posted by: stpaulsage | January 8, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 42%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 21%

Republicans:
McCain 31%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 15%

Headline: How do you spell change? O-B-A-M-A!

Posted by: larsonfrey | January 8, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Obama 42%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 22%

Democratic party coalesces around Obama, hoping to avoid his destruction at the hands of a Clinton attack machine. Senate abandons support for Hillary in a series of endorsements and defections.

McCain 32%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 13%

Romney out, two way race between McCain and Huckabee.

Posted by: BABucher | January 8, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 42%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%

Rep:

McCain 34%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 16%

Story:The end of a political era: Obama's era of good feelings overtakes the Democratic Aristocracy.

Posted by: 4n6kidnappedmylife | January 8, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Obama - 42
Clinton - 24
Edwards - 18

McCain - 30
Huckabee - 22
Romney - 18

Storyline - Is Hillary finished? McCain Revival Puts Huckabee on Hold, Fundamentalists Folds Fold

Posted by: AngryLiberal | January 8, 2008 1:19 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama - 46%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 19%

"Clinton pressured to withdraw from race after double loss."

Republicans:
McCain - 39%
Romney - 27%
Huckabee - 13%

"The Mac is back."

Posted by: beeyawn | January 8, 2008 1:18 PM | Report abuse

Obama

Edwards

clinton

I see a theme here

Mccain

Romney

Paul :)

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 1:16 PM | Report abuse

from the weekly standard of all places? Saying the country wants change. Kind of makes it unanimous doesn't it? goodby clinton. goodbye gop. If you do not suppor tthe will of the people, what do you stand for? Money? Fascism?

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 40%
Clinton: 28%
Edwards: 27%

Republicans:

Romney: 28%
McCain: 27%
Huckabee: 17%
(Paul: 13%)

Independents come out in record numbers for Obama (instead of McCain); Romney edges out McCain in a cliffhanger.

Posted by: nbbulldog83 | January 8, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 49%
Clinton: 22%
Edwards: 19%

Republicans:

McCain: 38%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 14%

Posted by: cdhosein | January 8, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Incorrect Change
The campaign's new theme.
by James W. Ceaser
01/08/2008 12:00:00 AM


forgot the tag for the thought police patriot act police

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 42%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 18%

McCain: 31%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 12%

Storyline: McCain victory margin narrow b/c Independents flock to Obama. Republican race still up in the air. Giuliani says: "Excellent."[/Mr. Burns].

Chris, I'm a medium. Heh.

Posted by: Applejack1 | January 8, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 42%
Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 17%

Storyline: Clinton caught in electoral quagmire

Republicans:

McCain: 36%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 9%

Storyline: Huckabee sunk by high voter turnout

(A lot of sinking in my storylines, for some reason.)

In case I don't win, is it possible to buy these T-shirts? Please? Or coffee mugs or whatever?

Posted by: th | January 8, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

the republcains eem to finally be taking note. What about their supporters? Are they going to continue to be stuborn and play the obstructionist role?

"Where do Republicans stand in relation to the great god of Change? One indication that it has been the Democrats who have controlled the presidential campaign so far is that many Republicans have echoed the idea that the lesson of Iowa must be an undifferentiated endorsement of Change. While a version of Change was also original to Mike Huckabee's campaign, the Republican's eternal poll watcher, Mitt Romney, admitted that he drew this teaching from Obama.

But this stance cannot possibly work for Republicans in the fall campaign. It is fine to speak of the need for specific changes, but embracing Change as the dominant theme would be to follow Hillary and fight the election on Obama's terms. After all, the Republicans have held the presidency for the last eight years. There has to be something worth conserving from this period.
"

ru

f

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 8, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

D:
Obama - 38%
Clinton - 31%
Edwards - 17%

R:
McCain - 33%
Romney - 29%
Paul - 16%

Storyline - Giuliani and Thompson need to hang it up, Clinton fires her advisors and tries to pull something out in South Carolina.

Posted by: Fred | January 8, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Obama 41%
Clinton 36%
Edwards 18%

McCain 34%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 12%
Guiliani 10%

Storyline: Obama margin less than expected; Republican remain mystified about the confusion in their ranks.

Posted by: wendy.redman | January 8, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 43%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 23%
Richardson 5%

Obama solid national frontrunner. Clinton campaign shakes up staff and refocuses for super Tuesday.

McCain 32%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 12%

McCain pulls off narrow victory as independents flock to Obama. Romney and McCain fight to become "anti-Huckabee" as he takes national lead.

Posted by: jlowery | January 8, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Dem:
Obama - 41%
Clinton - 34%
Edwards - 20%

Rep:
Romney - 34%
McCain - 33%
Huckabee - 20%

"Romney squeaks it out, Obama wins again. Democrats, once again, overwhelm GOP in turnout."

Posted by: brs3f | January 8, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse


OBAMA will have 22 per cent lead over HRC. Edwards comes in 2nd and HRC, behind.

Posted by: leolc | January 8, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

Obama 39
clinto 23
edwards 22

mccain 36
romney 25
huckaboom 16

sorty line, Mccain still badest 70 year old alive/badest man in NH, New Hampshire confrims rumor that like baseball it does not allow crying

Posted by: candylane | January 8, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Obama 40%
Clinton 34%
Edwards 20%

McCain 33%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 13%

"Obama Stays in Front; McCain Bests Romney; Giuliani Coming Back to Life; Hillary Cries Again and Considers Starting Affair with Intern."

Posted by: angrydoug1 | January 8, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
*Obama - 40%
*Clinton - 29%
*Edwards - 21%

Republicans:
*McCain - 32%
*Romney - 29%
*Huckabee - 15%

Posted by: ezschwartz | January 8, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama: 40
Clinton: 33
Edwards: 23

GOP
McCain: 44
Romney: 34
Huckabee: 18

Storyline: Obama rides wave of momentum. Clinton dog paddles furiously. Edwards treads water. GOP race is still up for grabs

Posted by: valuddite | January 8, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 44%

Clinton: 29%

Edwards: 16%


Republicans:

McCain: 35%

Romney: 26%

Huckabee: 16%

Emerging stories: "On the Democratic side, New Hampshire signals the end of inevitability. For the Republicans, the situation is far from settled."

Posted by: hritzm | January 8, 2008 1:01 PM | Report abuse

Democratic side:
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 18%
Storyline: Obama seems inevitable, people talk about massive changes coming in the Clinton campaign, predictions of when Edwards pull out and endorses Obama start happening.

Republican side:
McCain: 33%
Romney: 26%
Huckabee: 13%

Storyline: McCain is embraced as the new front runner of the republican race. He will be called some variation of the republican come back kid. With Mitt Romney's entire strategy down the toilet people wonder when he will be pulling out (Romney will vow to fight till feb. 5th, some commentators remark he is rich enough to do so as well, but will pull out if he can win a strong first place in Michigan). Some commentators will point out that Huckabee's stronger than expected third place victory means he should be considered the front runner. Overall consensus is that the race is still wide-open, though.
Ron Paul fans will still insist he will win. People will question if Rudy's strategy is at all viable if he keeps ranking sixth and fifth in these races.

Posted by: thescuspeaks | January 8, 2008 12:59 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama - 43%
Clinton - 31%
Edwards - 18%

Republicans:
McCain - 34%
Romney - 29%
Huckabee - 16%

Storyline: Obama rolls to victory, Clinton vows to fight on and subsquently makes staffing changes. Republican race still up in the air, although with McCain now as the frontrunner.

Posted by: goggin | January 8, 2008 12:59 PM | Report abuse

DEMOCRATS
51% Obama
32% Clinton
11% Edwards
6% Denny Kucinich and The Also-Rans

Republicans
35% McCain
32% Romney
15% Huckabee

Headlines:
NH TO CLINTON: YOU GO GIRL! And Don't Come Back.

McCain Squeaks by Romney, Looks to Michigan


Posted by: jhuntworth | January 8, 2008 12:59 PM | Report abuse

DEMOCRATS

Obama: 39
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 21

Storyline: "Obama offsets McCain's strength among Independents with strong showing from Democrats."

[Also, "John Podesta and/or James Carville recruited by army of media pundits to join Clinton campaign; no word yet from Clinton campaign itself"]

REPUBLICANS

McCain: 35
Romney: 28
Huckabee: 14

Storyline: "Race tight among Republicans, but independent support boosts McCain."

[Also, "All eyes now turn to Michigan, where a Romney victory could resuscitate a struggling campaign by Rudy Giuliani."

Posted by: gezi | January 8, 2008 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 39%

Clinton: 32%

Edwards: 15%


Republicans:

McCain: 33%

Romney: 30%

Huckabee: 15%


Emerging Stories:

Obama captures far more independent voters than McCain

Hillary takes a licking but keeps on ticking (at least until February 5th)

Posted by: Tgsprank | January 8, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 41%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 15%

Republicans

McCain 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 18%

Story: Hillary lives to fight another day, barely. Romney shocks by dropping out after double-digit thumping and bump for McCain in Michigan. Huckabee fails to get 10% and loses steam.

Posted by: ksullivan | January 8, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 42%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 21%
Storyline: Obama presumptive Democratic
Candidate; Goodbye Edwards and Richardson

Republicans
McCain: 37%
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 20%
Storyline: Mccain--The comeback kid

Posted by: CurtLader | January 8, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

You do realize that every one of these predictions so far has the exact same order of candidates? That means either a) everybody's read the polls and knows whats going on and b) the only way to break out of the pack and win a coveted Fix T-Shirt is to be bold and daring in the predictions!

D's
Obama 42
Edwards 30
Clinton 25

R's
McCain 35
Huckabee 28
Romney 25

Storyline: Stick a fork in them, Hillary and Mitt are done.

This prediction is worth what you paid for it...

Posted by: peterhoward | January 8, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Further explanation here: andrewkilberg.blogspot.com

Posted by: akilberg | January 8, 2008 12:52 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 33%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 13%
Paul: 12%
Giuliani 11%

Obama: 40%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 18%

"The Mac is Back!; When Does Hillary Concede?"

Posted by: akilberg | January 8, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 41%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 6%

GOP:

McCain 37%
Romney 29%
Paul 12%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%

Storylines: Time for more Clinton tears as Obama surge continues, Mac is Back (I'm sure someone will just lift his slogan. Imagine all those reporters sitting on his bus all day having the message slowly etched in their minds.)

Posted by: boo_arnes | January 8, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 39
Clinton 29
Edwards 24

Republicans:
McCain 33
Romney 29
Giuliani 15

Headline: "For the first time in years, the nominees are not selected after only the Iowa and New Hampshire races! (Driving the media completely nuts.)"

Posted by: rfacey | January 8, 2008 12:50 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 44
Clinton: 26
Edwards: 25

McCain: 36
Romney: 33
Huckabee: 14

Storyline:
Obama + McCain = MSM shed their veneer of objectivity and pollute their britches with delight

Posted by: novamatt | January 8, 2008 12:50 PM | Report abuse

Democratic primary:
Obama 47%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 20%

Republican primary:
McCain 39%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 10%

Storyline: Obama all but destroys the Clinton candidacy; moderate Republicans rallying around McCain in bid to stop Huckabee.

Posted by: harlemboy | January 8, 2008 12:49 PM | Report abuse

The winners are....

Dems:
Obama:46%
Edwards:23%
Clinton:22%
The race is now between Edwards and Obama.

Repubs:
Romney:30%
McCain:29%
Huckabee:19%
Paul:10%
Romney and Huckabee will fight it out for the nomination.


Posted by: drtdave43 | January 8, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 44%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 15%

Republicans
McCain: 35%
Romney: 25%
Huckaee: 18%

Storyline: One-time leaders Clinton and Romney continue slide. Can they win the nomination after going 0-2?

Posted by: ericbailey3621 | January 8, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 47%
Clinton: 24
Edwards: 19

Republicans
McCain: 31%
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 15

Storyline: "Big Light in Sky Scares Minority Group in West, and There's Hamburger all over the Highway in Mystic Connecticut."

Posted by: rlampe | January 8, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 48%
Clinton: 21%
Edwards: 19%
Kucinich 2%

McCain: 33%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 13%
Thompson: 8%
Rudy 6%

Storyline: Introducing the next President of the United States - not Hillary! Hooray for that! Romney still alive but he must have a strong showing in Michigan. Huckabee still around but needs a good result in SC or he is done.

Posted by: jdempsey8215 | January 8, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Obama 42
Edwards 29
Clinton 23

Mac 35
Rom 27
Paul 17
Huck 11

Posted by: fishyfu | January 8, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 41%
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 17
Storyline: Is Obama inevitable?

Republicans
McCain: 32%
Romney: 30
Paul: 12
Huckabee: 12
Storyline: The Warhorse and the Thoroughbred: Does McCain's squeaker over Mitt make him a contender? Also: Wither Giuliani

Posted by: RhymesWithRight | January 8, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Alternate D Storyline: "Obama Gives Clinton Something to REALLY Cry About"

Mean-spirited but couldn't resist.


Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 41%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 12%
Kucinich 2%

Republicans
McCain 29%
Romney 28%
Paul 14%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 11%
Thompson 6%
Hunter 1%

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 8, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama - 40%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 17%

Reps
McCain - 35%
Romney - 28%
Paul - 14%

Story: No surprises. Ron Paul Fanatics don't shut up for a week (like I said, no surprises)

Posted by: riff_raff17 | January 8, 2008 12:45 PM | Report abuse

Ds:

Obama: 46%
Clinton: 27
Edwards: 19

Rs:

McCain: 33%
Romney: 29
Huckaee: 16

Storyline: "Obama appears unstoppable; McCain is The Comeback Kid, but a milder resurgence than expected."

Posted by: cullendave | January 8, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 50.1%
Clinton 23.6%
Edwards 18.8%

Republicans:
McCain 33%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 16%

Blowout for Obama on way to sure nomination; McCain reenergized and going for the Rep nomination.

Will be an interesting Obama - McCain race with Obama choosing a running mate (? Biden) with a lot of foreign policy experience and McCain choosing Huckabee or Romney as his running mate.

Obama will win general election by a modern day "landslide".

A LOT of people will come forth and come together in almost a "peace corps spirit" to contribute to the new administration without being paid. Compromise for progressive problem solving will be the siren call. Success will breed success. We will get along with ourselves; we will get along with the world MUCH BETTER.

Posted by: cbday | January 8, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 42%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 16%

Republicans:
McCain 33%
Romney 29%
Paul 14% (tie)
Huckabee 14% (tie)

Story:
Obama, McCain Win NH In Massive Turnout
Romney finishes strong second, Carville to run new Clinton strategy

Posted by: mgturn | January 8, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama- 38
Clinton- 32
Edwards-16

McCain-31
Romney-27
Huckabee-15
Paul-12

After Tears: Can Clinton put the wheels back on?

Posted by: jnbhuta | January 8, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Obama 39%
HRC 35%
Edwards 19%
McCan 30%
Romney 21$
Ron Paul 10%
People are starting to think about Obama. Even if he get elected, does he know how to govern? HRC is retooling her campaining strategy in the fighting for her political life.Edwards is a one theme compaign candidate,angry at the American incs. MacCan is gaining momentum over Romney.Paul attracts libertarians vots.

Posted by: johnycheng1 | January 8, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Fast on the heels of my Iowa prediction of Obama by 9 over Hillary and Hillary finishing 3rd (both spot on), here is my prediction for NH tonight:

Dems:

Obama 42
Clinton 28
Edwards 24

Publicans:

McCain 34
Romney 32
Huckabee 12
Paul 12
Thompson 7
Giuliana... not a lot.

Posted by: AjaxtheGreater | January 8, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Ds:

Obama -- 40
Clinton -- 37
Edwards -- 17

Rs:

McCain -- 34
Romney -- 22
Huckabee -- 16

Clinton down but not out; Romney on life support.

Posted by: acasilaco | January 8, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Obama 43%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%

Obama sails by the others while Edwards better than expected finish keeps him in the race

Romney 36%
McCain 33%
Huck 17%

Romney upsets McCain, whose campaign is just about finished. Huckabee's better than expected showing increases interest in him as the race become Romney vs. Huck.

Posted by: pspeaker | January 8, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

Obama 32% of all votes cast.

Posted by: lylepink | January 8, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 18%

Obama strengthens lead; Edwards to drop out

McCain 34%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 22%

McCain wins; Romney and McCain look to Michigan; Huckabee bounces past Paul

Posted by: giantpacificoctopus | January 8, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Obama 44%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 21%

McCain 36%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 19%

Storyline: Former front-running campaigns now in tatters, are Clinton and Romney done?

Posted by: aug10morris | January 8, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

PREDICTIONS FOR NH:

Republicans:
McCain 37
Romney 31
Giuliani 22

Democrats:
Obama 39
Clinton 33
Edwards 19

Storyline: Obama wins but not by as much as people expected, because McCain gets more independents than has been projected.

Posted by: yank1082 | January 8, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama 39
Clinton 33
Edwards 22
Richardson 5

Reps
McCain 36
Romney 31
Paul 12
Huckabee 9
Giuliani 8
Thompson 3

Storyline: Both races still open. Obama didn't score the expected knockout punch, but Edwards faces potentially insurmountable structural hurdles. Romney still alive, though gasping.

Posted by: owgriswo | January 8, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama - 40%
Clinton - 32%
Edwards - 19%

Headline: The Movement Continues

Posted by: timmadrid | January 8, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

jr1886 writes
"Story the next day: Hillary Clinton meltdown. Mark Penn is fired!! Carville and Begala to the rescue"

Story post NV/SC; Carville & Begala fired!! No idea which straw to grasp next!

Posted by: bsimon | January 8, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

NH Predictions:

Dems:
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 17%

Storyline: can Obama be stopped?

Reps:

Romney: 35%
McCain: 32%
Huckabee: 14%

Storyline: Obama takes independant voters from McCain; still no GOP frontrunner.

Posted by: matt_ahrens | January 8, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

The enthusiasm for Obama here in Portsmouth, NH is rather amazing. He could get 50% in the liberal Seacoast, and I'll be shocked if he fails to beat Hillary by at least 10%.

Posted by: dktrrobt | January 8, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 45%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 25%

McCain: 34%
Romney: 33%
Huckabee: 22%

Storyline: "Democratic race OVER, though Edwards does surprisingly well" "McCain's victory is pyrrhic, Republican race is a chaotic mess!"

Posted by: arlee1 | January 8, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

D:
Obama: 37
Clinton:32
Edwards: 22

R:
McCain: 32
Romney: 27
Huckabee: 14

Storyline: Independents pick winners

Posted by: conleyma | January 8, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Obama 42
Clinton 30
Edwards 20

storyline: Can a Clinton campaign team reorganization resuscitate her candidacy?

McCain 33
Romney 28
Huckabee 15

storyline: GOP race more muddled than ever. Can Thompson & Giuliani survive losing to Ron Paul?

Posted by: bsimon | January 8, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 41%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 16%

Republicans:
McCain 36%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 13%

Storyline: Clinton: Down but not out -- yet

Posted by: dean.alterman | January 8, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

44% Obama
28% Clinton
18% Edwards

"Now a Movement, Obama rolls through NH, looks toward NV and SC"

Posted by: sjxylib | January 8, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse


I posted in an earlier thread as well.

Dems:
Obama 43%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 6%

Reps:

McCain 32%
Romney 26%
Paul 12%
Huck 12%
Guiliani 10%

Headlines will be : "The Comeback Kid: McCain Edges Romney, Paul tied for 3rd"

"After double digit defeat Clinton vows to win on Feb 5th" - this in the Post where the headlines and stories always seem to focus on Clinton whether the stories are positive or negative.

Posted by: jonathanmstevens | January 8, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 19%

Will Hillary pass on South Carolina?

McCain 33%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 10%

Huckabee's third place finish is enough to continue to South Carolina and Florida as a favorite son of the south candidate. McCain and Romney retool for super Tuesday.

Posted by: sbrandt | January 8, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

SoonerThought.Blogspot.com Predictions:

Democrats:
Obama 41%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 4%
Other: 6%

Repubs:

Doesn't matter. Obama wins.

Obama/Biden '08

Posted by: soonerthought | January 8, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

My predictions (although I was awful on Iowa)

D's
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 17%

Storyline: Everyone waiting for South Carolina...

R's
McCain: 33%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 14%

Storyline: McCain seen as favorite.

(I think that the R nomination is going to be a mess for a long time to come, though)

Posted by: rpy1 | January 8, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 40
Clinton 34
Edwards 18

Republicans
McCain 32
Romney 28
Huckabee 19

Clinton does better than expected as more independents vote in Republican primary which fuels McCain victory. Huckabee stronger than expected 3rd place finish.

Posted by: JasonT910 | January 8, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

New Hampshire Predictions

Democrats:
Obama 42%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 6%

Story: Obama's movement is moving past Hillary

Republicans:
Romney 35%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 7%
Thompson 3%

Story: McCain Hopes Dashed

Posted by: jasonlafuente | January 8, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Finally! Based on the early results from Dixville Notch and that other place up in the Artic portion of NH I'm going to be more aggressive than usual.

For the D's:
Obama 43
Clinton 25
Edwards 19
Richardson 6

For the R's:
McCain 39
Romney 25
Huckabee 14
Paul 10
Giuliani 7

D Storyline: "Obamania continues; Clinton looks ahead to Super Tuesday."

R Storyline: "McCain Sweeps NH; GOP Field Muddled."

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 8, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama - 42%
Clinton - 28%
Edwards - 20%

Republicans:
McCain - 38%
Romney - 33%
Paul - 14%

Storyline - Clinton shuffles the deck and bets it all on Super Tuesday. Republican race is still wide open.

Posted by: dnbraggs | January 8, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

My call:

Republicans

McCain: 38
Romney: 26
Huckabee: 14

Democrats

Obama: 41
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 24

Storyline (Rep): RIP Romney
Storyline (Dem): Voters lost their thrill for Hill

Posted by: msheik | January 8, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Story the next day: Hillary Clinton meltdown. Mark Penn is fired!! Carville and Begala to the rescue

Posted by: jr1886 | January 8, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 39%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 25%

Republicans:
McCain 33%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 16%

Story: "Will Clinton go on? Will McCain repeat 2000 or can he win the nomination?"

Posted by: clarktaylor9 | January 8, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 51%
Clinton: 23
Edwards: 17

McCain: 34%
Romney: 25
Huckabee: 19

Despite the hype, the nominees are Huckabee and Edwards.

Posted by: threedy | January 8, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

New Hampshire, 2008 Predictions:

-Democrats:

1. Barack Obama - 43%
2. Hillary Rodham Clinton - 33%
3. John Edwards - 18%
4. Bill Richardson - 4%
5. Dennis Kucinich - 2%

"Granite State Proves Hopeful."

-Republicans:

1. John McCain - 33%
2. Mitt Romney - 30%
3. Mike Huckabee - 13%
4. Ron Paul - 11%
5. Rudy Guiliani - 10%
*Others - 3%
"McCain On Top, Romney & Clinton Left Gasping."

Post-New Hampshire, 2008 Predictions:
-Barack Obama: A resounding victory in N.H. will effectively crown Obama the Democratic nominee.
-Hillary Clinton: She must recalibrate her strategy, and her message. She will likely retain solid support from the Democratic establishment, but I don't think she has the time or the gravitas to achieve the nomination. Besides which, now she looks like a weaker candidate. Obama has us looking toward the general election all ready. Correction: Obama has convinced us that we will reclaim this country not for Democrats, but for working men & women not too cynical to be a bit daring while in the voting booths. Finally a candidate that understands being daring is an asset. And that it frightens Washington. Republicans will soon go for Obama's knees, but at their own peril.
-John McCain: Likely to pick up the nomination if he wins in Michigan, too. I like his chances. Unlikely he defeats Obama, but at least an Obama-McCain race will be civil.
-Mitt Romney: I still reserve the possibility that he can win this thing. But how? Mitt needs to start running to the middle and touting his successes as a centrist Republican. Stop running against Mondale in '84, start running in 2008.


In light of Obama's ascendance, I must say that it actually feels great to be an American again. I'm excited.

Eugene Debs '08

Posted by: legan00 | January 8, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

I call...

Democrats

Obama = 38%
Clinton = 29%
Edwards = 26%

Republicans

McCain = 32%
Romney = 27%
Huckabee = 25%

Posted by: CharlesWGray | January 8, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Barack Obama 42%
Hillary Clinton 29%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 6%
Dennis Kuccinich 2%
MiKe Gravel <1%

Analysis: Barack will ride the wave from his Iowa victory and will deliver a near mortal blow to the Clinton machine. The independents will be important for the huge margin of 13% but not decisive to his win. Turnout will be phenomenal and late deciding independents will break for Obama rather than Mcain.

Hillary Clinton will take second place with 29%. She will do better among Democrats, them alone will keep Hillary from falling prey to John Edwards.

John Edwards as I said time and again is a dead man walking. I don't expect him to pass Hillary for 2nd this time because he doesn't have a core constituency in NH unlike Iowa.

John Mcain 32%
Mitt Romney 30%
Mike Huckabee 12%

Analysis: John Mcain will eke out an extremely close victory over Mitt Romney because Obama will siphon out most of the Independents votes so crucial to him. Romney won't undertake Mcain because he can't muster a broad coalition from the republican base.


Posted by: jr1886 | January 8, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 27
Huckabee 16

Obama 40
Clinton 30
Edwards 18

Story: Obama on a roll

Posted by: gtb38 | January 8, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 17%

New Hampshire has second thoughts about Obama. Independents vote for McCain to win.

McCain 32%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 12%
Guiliani 10%

Posted by: slbk | January 8, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

And here's the prediction from a Canadian amateur pundit - fascinating to watch the U.S. election process kick-off...

http://mungobah.blogspot.com/2008/01/predictions-for-new-hampshire-super.html

Posted by: mungo70 | January 8, 2008 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Check www.CampaignDiaries.com all day for coverage and live election blogging throughout the night. My predictions:

Obama wins 40% to 32% for Clinton. Edwards gets 19%.
Romney wins 32% to 31%, Huckabee gets 13%, Ron Paul gets 12% and Giuliani gets 9%.

If Obama wins as big as some of you are predicting, McCain can't possibly get a huge win. They could both prevail but it would remain close.

Posted by: campaigndiaries | January 8, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

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