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Prediction Time: La., Wash., Neb.

The Fix is still digging through all the predictions from Super Tuesday (we'll have winners of the coveted and, as of yet, still in production official Fix t-shirts next week) but another round of voting is upon us.

That means another chance to win yourself a t-shirt that will undoubtedly make you the envy of your friends and enemies.

The Republican race is all but wrapped up for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) but, thankfully for all those predictors out there, the Democratic contest between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton continues on with no end in sight.

Louisiana, Washington and Nebraska all hold votes today on the Democratic side. Louisiana is a primary election while Washington and Nebraska are caucuses. ( Read more about The Fix's handicapping of what's next in the Democratic race.)

The rules of today's game are similar to every vote this year -- other than Super Tuesday. We want the correct order of finish (with percentages) on the Democratic side in the trio of states voting today. (You don't qualify for the t-shirt if you don't offer picks in all three.) We also want to know what the prevailing storyline will be coming out of this weekend's votes. (While not part of the prediction contest, don't forget that Maine holds a caucus on Sunday.)

So, have at it in the comments section below. Closest to the mark in all three states wins a t-shirt as does the person who comes the closest to guessing the storyline.

We'll be updating The Fix this weekend with results from the various votes. But, in an attempt to preserve The Fix's sanity and please the saintlike Mrs. Fix, those posts will be sporadic.

By Chris Cillizza  |  February 9, 2008; 8:37 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Friday Senate Line: Dems Remain Strong
Next: Huckabee Wins Kansas; Democratic Results Later

Comments

Benadork? I won the t-shirt.

My predictions from my post up above:

WA: Obama 64% / Clinton 36% (I was only four points off on Washington)
LA: Obama 57 % / Clinton 43% (Obama's percentage--EXACT)
NE: Obama 68 % / Clinton 32% (EXACT)

Am I not the winner?

Posted by: kevineras | February 10, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

oops. push submit too may times.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | February 10, 2008 12:17 AM | Report abuse

Bud0: come on?! Benadork?! how about another look (I really want a t-shirt).

my prediction:

Nebraska: Obama: 65%; Clinton 44: 34%;
Louisiana: Obama: 60%; Clinton 44: 39%;
Washington: Obama: 67%; Clinton 44: 32%;

Me off the mark:
Off in La: +3 O, -2 C; Net diff: 5
Off in Ne: +3 O, -2C; Net diff: 5
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

My total net off the mark: 12


benadork's prediction:

La:
Obama 54
Clinton 45

Ne:
Obama 72
Clinton 28

Wa:
Obama 67
Clinton 30

Benadork off the mark:
Off in La: -3 O, +8 C; Net diff: 11
Off in Ne: +4 O, -4C; Net diff: 8
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

Benadork net total off the mark: 21


I think I was closer... hate to, you know, be overly excited about it...

Size is Large.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | February 10, 2008 12:16 AM | Report abuse

Bud0: come on?! Benadork?! how about another look (I really want a t-shirt).

my prediction:

Nebraska: Obama: 65%; Clinton 44: 34%;
Louisiana: Obama: 60%; Clinton 44: 39%;
Washington: Obama: 67%; Clinton 44: 32%;

Me off the mark:
Off in La: +3 O, -2 C; Net diff: 5
Off in Ne: +3 O, -2C; Net diff: 5
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

My total net off the mark: 12


benadork's prediction:

La:
Obama 54
Clinton 45

Ne:
Obama 72
Clinton 28

Wa:
Obama 67
Clinton 30

Benadork off the mark:
Off in La: -3 O, +8 C; Net diff: 11
Off in Ne: +4 O, -4C; Net diff: 8
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

Benadork net total off the mark: 21


I think I was closer... hate to, you know, be overly excited about it...

Size is Large.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | February 10, 2008 12:15 AM | Report abuse

Bud0: come on?! Benadork?! how about another look (I really want a t-shirt).

my prediction:

Nebraska: Obama: 65%; Clinton 44: 34%;
Louisiana: Obama: 60%; Clinton 44: 39%;
Washington: Obama: 67%; Clinton 44: 32%;

Me off the mark:
Off in La: +3 O, -2 C; Net diff: 5
Off in Ne: +3 O, -2C; Net diff: 5
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

My total net off the mark: 12


benadork's prediction:

La:
Obama 54
Clinton 45

Ne:
Obama 72
Clinton 28

Wa:
Obama 67
Clinton 30

Benadork off the mark:
Off in La: -3 O, +8 C; Net diff: 11
Off in Ne: +4 O, -4C; Net diff: 8
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

Benadork net total off the mark: 21


I think I was closer... hate to, you know, be overly excited about it...

Size is Large.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | February 10, 2008 12:15 AM | Report abuse

Bud0: come on?! Benadork?! how about another look (I really want a t-shirt).

my prediction:

Nebraska: Obama: 65%; Clinton 44: 34%;
Louisiana: Obama: 60%; Clinton 44: 39%;
Washington: Obama: 67%; Clinton 44: 32%;

Me off the mark:
Off in La: +3 O, -2 C; Net diff: 5
Off in Ne: +3 O, -2C; Net diff: 5
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

My total net off the mark: 12


benadork's prediction:

La:
Obama 54
Clinton 45

Ne:
Obama 72
Clinton 28

Wa:
Obama 67
Clinton 30

Benadork off the mark:
Off in La: -3 O, +8 C; Net diff: 11
Off in Ne: +4 O, -4C; Net diff: 8
Off in Wa: +1 O, -1 C; Net diff: 2

Benadork net total off the mark: 21


I think I was closer... hate to, you know, be overly excited about it...

Size is Large.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | February 10, 2008 12:14 AM | Report abuse

Prediction:It's too late to predict, it's already happened-shucks.
Headline is: no-one predicted such a good night for Obama and such a goodnight Vienna for Clinton. No-one coming back, kiddo - at least we hope not! Woohoo!

Posted by: rupertornelius | February 9, 2008 11:24 PM | Report abuse

I've skimmed through these predictions (100 or so?) and I saw just three that came close to predicting the margin of Obama's victory in Washington, and all three of them underestimated his margins elsewhere.

So, out of 100 or so predictors here, I'm pretty sure every single one predicted a smaller Obama victory than the one he actually scored tonight.

I think Benadork's got the T-shirt, by the way.

PS sd71, if you'd really opposed the war in Iraq you wouldn't be backing Hillary. Everyone knows Hillary's supporters are the very same Democrats who went along with Bush in 2002-3.

Posted by: Bud0 | February 9, 2008 11:14 PM | Report abuse

sd71 you stated:

"i was opposed to iraq when 90 percent were in favor and i was right.then they were excited about beating up saddam. i knew about iraq's long history of shia-sunni-kurd conflict and unrest."

Were you quoting Barack Obama, speaking in in 2002? Because that's what he was warning us against...that, and if we invaded Iraq we would be bogged down there for years. Prescient judgement, don't you think?

Posted by: joy2 | February 9, 2008 10:25 PM | Report abuse

i was opposed to iraq when 90 percent were in favor and i was right.then they were excited about beating up saddam. i knew about iraq's long history of shia-sunni-kurd conflict and unrest.

nobody can be right 100 percent of the time but now i think hillary is the best in the race.she has real substance.

obama has zero substance in his campaign.it is pure and empty hype. and mccain was among the last in his class and a warmonger.

i won't be surprised if obama or mccain wins and people beat up on them later,like they did bush.

in the end the economy is in a recession and mccain or obama will only make it worse. it is a sad state of affairs.

Posted by: sd71 | February 9, 2008 10:18 PM | Report abuse

svreader...
I've seen you on these boards smearing Obama at every turn. You are a diehard Clinton supporter...not that there is anything wrong with that. But to say now that you're an "issues voter" is stretching it a bit, isn't it? I doubt if you've even read his plans for Healthcare. Let's face it, his plan has the most chance of passing through congress (unlike Clinton's. Obama's plan will give access to the same Healthcare that members of congress have....more affordable and can't be turned down for pre-existing conditions. He also proposes subsidies: Individuals and families who do not qualify for Medicaid or SCHIP but still need financial assistance will receive an income-related federal subsidy to buy into the new public plan or purchase a private health care plan.

If you want to learn more, go to barackobama.com and look under Issues.

Posted by: joy2 | February 9, 2008 10:14 PM | Report abuse

As an "issues voter" who's issue is health care, I'm deeply saddened by the results I see.

If Obama is elected we can kiss any chance of universal health care goodbye.

The people who will suffer the most are low-income Americans, especially African-Americans and Latinos who will go without health insurance to save money, then go to the emergency room, get poor care and pay a fortune just like they do now.

I suppose I shouldn't care.
I'm white and middle class.
I've got the perfect democraphic for Obama.

I became a Democratic because I cared about the less-fortunate.

What I see happening is breaking my heart.

Posted by: svreader | February 9, 2008 8:55 PM | Report abuse

AP: Obama wins Washington State

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 8:48 PM | Report abuse

Tonight seems like the beginning of the Obama momentum.

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 8:42 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA WINS NEBRASKA: NBC

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 8:20 PM | Report abuse

LA--Obama 54%--Cinton 46%
NE--Obama 62%--Clinton 38%
WA--Obama 51%--Clinton 49%

STORYLINE:Obama has solid wins, Clinton hangs on in contiuing close contest. Potomoc Primary wll decide if Hillary's personal investment was worth it.

BONUS: ME--Clinton 52%--Obama 48%

Posted by: chadibuins | February 9, 2008 8:10 PM | Report abuse


Washington: Obama 56%, Clinton 43%

Louisiana: Obama 63%, Clinton 35%

Nebraska: Obama 51%, Clinton 47%

Story: regular delegates remain roughly split between Obama and Clinton; the Democratic race is still a near dead-heat between Obama and Clinton; the race continues.

Prediction for Democratic nomination: regular delegates will be split roughly evenly between Obama and Clinton. Clinton will win the Democratic nomination by a preponderance of super delegates.

Posted by: lfwolfdh | February 9, 2008 8:06 PM | Report abuse

Bubba would say to Optimyst "I call it winning an argument against your opponent, not cheating".

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 8:04 PM | Report abuse

Jeez, we're doing ME now too? Well add
ME: Obama 53%, Clinton 45%

Posted by: ippolit | February 9, 2008 8:00 PM | Report abuse

La:
Obama 54
Clinton 45

Ne:
Obama 72
Clinton 28

Wa:
Obama 67
Clinton 30

Obama wins big in caucus states, close race in La.

Posted by: Benadork | February 9, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 68% Clinton 28%
WA: Obama 58% Clinton 38%
NB: Obama 55% Clinton 41%
USVI: Obama 57% Clinton 40%

Despite Clinton's attempts to downplay February events, Obama's momentum grows

Posted by: ippolit | February 9, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

optimyst- that's a very well reasoned & well written letter. Thanks for sharing.

Posted by: bsimon | February 9, 2008 7:55 PM | Report abuse

malis: I was dumbfounded to see something like that and can only guess as to what or who is putting out this sort of stuff. My "Crystal Ball" is not working yet, give it about an hour for the Vladimir to soak in real good and it should be working fine by then.

Posted by: lylepink | February 9, 2008 7:51 PM | Report abuse

Just got back from the caucus in Washington State. Several precincts together (about 1,000 people); final result favored Obama 3:1. Looks like he'll win big here. Big issues were the war, Hillary's electability, and people coming together to take back government. I'm in Hillary's camp, but I sense the Obama wave is passing through the Evergreen State.

Posted by: mawenzel1983 | February 9, 2008 7:49 PM | Report abuse

LA
OB - 61%, HIL - 35%
NE
OB - 70%, HIL - 30%
WA
OB - 55%, HIL - 40%
ME
OB - 65%, HIL -33%

Story: How can Hillary recover and where did she go wrong. Obama is announced as the strong front runner going into the Potomac primaries

Posted by: flwilliams87 | February 9, 2008 7:48 PM | Report abuse

My response to wittdog is the same as what I wrote to my senator about seating the Florida delegation. Here it is:

Dear Senator Nelson,

I must strongly disagree with your position on seating Florida delegates at our Democratic convention in Denver.

The train wreck you referred to will be even worse if the votes of Florida and Michigan delegates affects the outcome at the convention.

After several years as an independent, I returned to the party last year in my enthusiasm for the politics of hope of Barack Obama. I did not return to the party to witness this kind of power play.

There is no way short of a new contested primary or caucus to know how to split Florida's delegates fairly between the candidates. I was not able to see my candidate or campaign for him. The primary on January 29 was nothing more than a straw poll. When my 23 year old son Michael realized that his support of Obama wouldn't count for anything, he saw no reason to interrupt his busy schedule to vote. How many thousands of Florida voters did the same, and how many more entered the polling places less informed than they would have if the primary was contested?

Senators Clinton and Obama signed an agreement with the Democratic National Committee. The DNC controls the rules for selecting delegates. We violated those rules by moving up our primary before February 5 and were penalized for it. After the sorry tale of our tainted election in 2000 which had such severe consequences for our country, do you dare to brand our eventual nominee with another Florida voting scandal that will threaten to destroy our party unity as we seek to defeat John McCain? Florida will again be the laughing stock of the nation.

Senator Nelson, you have had, and will continue to have, my vote and support. But I must ask you to show more respect to the process of nominating our next president. Given the demographics of our state, I expect Hillary would win a contested primary, but only by a slim margin. It is completely unfair and undemocratic to suggest that the results of January 29 expressed the informed will of the Florida electorate.

Please don't make my membership in the Florida Democratic Party a short-lived, bitter experience. If Obama loses the nomination because of the votes of an illegitimate delegation from Florida, I would not be able to support Hillary Clinton.

Thank you.

Posted by: optimyst | February 9, 2008 7:47 PM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 58
Clinton 39

NE

Obama 57
Clinton 43

WA
Obama 53
Clinton 46

Obama surge continues, Clinton to put all out effort in Ohio and Texas.

Posted by: rkmfcca | February 9, 2008 7:38 PM | Report abuse

Check out the Caucus blogs and emails on the Seattle Times website:

www.seattletimes.com

Early reports show HUGE wins for Obama in WA.

Posted by: hikaya | February 9, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana: Obama 54% Clinton 45%
Washington: Obama 65% Clinton 35%
Nebraska Obama 68% Clinton 32%


Posted by: cmricha | February 9, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana:
Clinton 53% Obama 38%

Nebraska:
Obama 53% Clinton 42%

Washington:
Obama 62% Clinton 37%

Posted by: julieds | February 9, 2008 7:29 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana:
Obama 55% Clinton 44%

Nebraska:
Obama 60% Clinton 39%

Washington:
Obama 58% Clinton 41%

Storyline: Obama sweeps Saturday results but that doesn't change the fundamentals of the race since the next batch of state (on the 12th) will go big for Obama no matter what. Clinton manages to not sink in the delegate count in both Nebraska (where she will tie him at district-level delegate allocation) and Louisiana (where she won't be far behind in the district-level either), though she has more trouble staying close in Washington.

Posted by: campaigndiaries | February 9, 2008 7:15 PM | Report abuse

WA
Obama: 60
Clinton: 38

NE
Obama: 68
Clinton: 28

LA
Obama: 62
Clinton: 37

ME
Obama: 52
Clinton: 48

Obama sweeps the weekend, heads into the Chesapeake Tuesday on a roll; Clinton feeling the pressure to shake up her campaign.

Huckabee embarrasses McCain in Kansas; looks ahead to a must-win in Virginia on Tuesday.

Posted by: mschmidt73 | February 9, 2008 7:12 PM | Report abuse

WA:
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

NE:
Obama 78%
Clinton 22%

LA:
Obama 63%
Clinton 37%

Obama wins big, has money and energy. Is Hillary in trouble?

Posted by: EricLopez1067 | February 9, 2008 7:09 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Cillizza,

While handicapping the race is fun, please consider the truly disenfranchised voters who WILL NOT decide. The Democratic primaries in both Michigan and Florida rendered the entire populous devoid of a constitutional right to vote. I understand that The Supreme Court sometime ago determined that they, or we, may not interfere with processes of a private institution, and that political parties are private institutions. Well, I think the time has long since past when that ruling needs to be challenged.
The DNC is not conducting elections for a DNC based post. This is not an election for any office within the DNC; it is instead an election for a publicly held office, the highest office in the land.
How does a private institution garner the right to determine when, how, or even if any citizen's vote may count for the winnowing down to two potential candidates for the Presidency of the United States of America. The 10th Amendment clearly states that all powers not clearly outlined in the constitution falls to the States and the people, not any private organization.
I have contacted my local ACLU office; I have contacted the Governor's office here in Michigan. I have even spoken with several of the legal and political science professors at our institutions of higher learning. However, I was unable to drum up much if any enthusiasm or direction as to how I may pursue action against the DNC.
I believe this subject has not garnered sufficient or appropriate attention in the press. The subject is shunted aside as so much inside baseball. But it is not inside baseball, it is instead a raw and blatant mutilation of a wide swath of individuals' most basic rights. Moreover it is a clear frustration of the people's voice. John Dean may get his comeuppance when this whole quavering thirst for "change" flies away in a smoke laced with bullying politics and in my opinion profound impropriety brought upon a collective nation by him.

Robert Wittenberg

Posted by: wittdog | February 9, 2008 7:00 PM | Report abuse

Alternative storyline #2:

Clinton to anyone who will listen: I am Rasputin-like. I will out-Mitt Mitt. I am the Energizer bunny, code pink. I am, I said. Obey, obey, I think I'm a banana tree, knitting with one needle, hurray, hurray, hip hip hurray. 2012 is not far away, just you wait. Biiiiiiill, get the shotgun, this is personal. Tell the Emperor, this is war!!!!!!

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 6:57 PM | Report abuse

It's prediction time again?

Please do spare us your predictions. You don't have a crystal ball.

And, please, do call your predictions by their correct name: wishful thinking.

Posted by: Gatsby1 | February 9, 2008 6:50 PM | Report abuse

NE: Obama 68, Clinton 31
WA: Obama 53, Clinton 47
LA: Obama 61, Clinton 35
ME: Clinton 54, Obama 46

Storyline: Obama's shows expected progress; continued close contest leads to tons of spin, followed by a flood of articles about spin; Howard Wolfson flies by Bill Clinton as Obama fans' enemy no. 1.

Prediction: Democrats--including the loser of this contest-- go to huge lengths to unify the party after the nominee is settled. Dean, Schumer, Emanuel etc. have learned lessons from 2006 success.
=============================

Will we ever know the California breakdown by absentee vs. election day voters? I find it hard to read the dynamic of Super Tuesday without more data: for instance, could Obama have had a million more Calif. voters on 2/5?

Posted by: kshe7 | February 9, 2008 6:31 PM | Report abuse

LA OBAMA 67% CLINTON 30%
WA OBAMA 62% CLINTON 38%
NE OBAMA 74% CLINTON 26%

Bill Clinton pops a vein.

Posted by: joy2 | February 9, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 64% / Clinton 36%
LA: Obama 57 % / Clinton 43%
NE: Obama 68 % / Clinton 32%

Storyline: While many think that this will be a battle for the nomation that will last until the DNC convention, Obama wins by considerable margins in all three states. If he can strongly carry upcoming states/"districts" (ME, VA, MD, D.C.), can he take charge of the nomination and win in OH and TX?

Posted by: kevineras | February 9, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 65, Clinton 35
WA: Obama 56, Clinton 44
NE: Obama 59, Clinton 41
ME: Clinton 51, Obama 49

Obama surges into delegate lead; Clinton hopes told hold on for bigger states.

Posted by: dray | February 9, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

Why doesn't anyone predict that Huckabee will win Kansas?

Posted by: Miata7 | February 9, 2008 6:21 PM | Report abuse

Fix,

Dah, it is Kansas not Nebraska today.

Nebraska is in July.

Posted by: Thomas4 | February 9, 2008 6:19 PM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 58
Clinton 40

WA
Obama 48
Clinton 50

NE
Obama 60
Clinton 38

Trend continues. HRC can squeak out some wins; when Obama wins, he wins big. Magic 8 ball says, "outlook cloudy. ask again later".

Posted by: bsimon | February 9, 2008 6:14 PM | Report abuse

People who think Hillary has a chance in Washington State clearly know little or nothing about the state's democrats. Silly kids.

WA:
Obama - 55
Clinton - 43

LA:
Obama - 51
Clinton - 46

NE:
Obama - 63
Clinton - 33

ME:
Obama - 52
Clinton - 46

DC:
Obama - 65
Clinton - 33

VA:
Obama - 60
Clinton - 38

MD:
Obama - 60
Clinton 38

Democrats abroad:
Obama - 85
Clinton - 13

HI:
Obama - 80
Clinton - 17

WI:
Obama - 62
Clinton - 36

Tonight: Obama sweeps all three contests amidst depressed LA turnout; looks to push trend in D.C. area.

Tomorrow night: Obama eeks out a win in Maine, momentum gathers into Tuesday's contests.

Wednesday morning: Obama sweeps seven contests along with overseas voters, can he carry it through Texas and Ohio?

2/20: Obama dominates home state, continues Midwest sweep in WI.

Posted by: thecrisis | February 9, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse

LA Obama 67% Clinton 33%
WA Clinton 52% Obama 48%
NE Obama 60% Clinton 40%
ME Clinton 55% Obama 45%

Headline: No decision this weekend! The fight goes on. Clinton is best when her back is against the wall.

Posted by: martijnbakker007 | February 9, 2008 6:02 PM | Report abuse


LA Obama 53% Clinton 47%
WA Obama 62% Clinton 38%
NE Obama 63% Clinton 37%

Obama overcomes low turnout in LA and regains momentum...

Posted by: redknight67 | February 9, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

Washington-
Obama: 44%
Clinton: 53%

Clinton wins big in WA due to higher than expected turn-out among Asian-American voters.


Nebraska-
Obama: 47%
Clinton: 50%

Nebraska voters are very worried about economy. They all voted for Clinton. Latinos are solidly behind Clinton.

Louisiana-
Obama: 54%
Clinton: 42%

Obama won LA with lower-turn-out among African-American voters. Clinton gets 28% of female African American votes.

Posted by: kat7 | February 9, 2008 5:54 PM | Report abuse

After talking to friends at 5 NE caucuses, I am willing to bet anyone on here any amount of money that Obama will win. Any takers?

Posted by: Nissl | February 9, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

LA Obama 63 Clinton 36
WA Obama 61 Clinton 38
NE Obama 72 Clinton 27
ME Obama 51 Clinton 48

Headline: "Clinton: TV networks are to blame"

Posted by: bcath | February 9, 2008 5:39 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 62, Clinton 37
WA: Obama 53, Clinton 46
NE: Obama 69, Clinton 31
ME: Obama 53, Clinton 47

Headline: "Hillary Shows Her Toughness by Rising above Expectations"

Posted by: jchaney | February 9, 2008 5:32 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana: OBAMA 55-45 clinton
Nebraska: CLINTON 50-48 obama
Washington: CLINTON 52- 47 obama

Clinton holds Obama in first test after super tuesday.

Posted by: caribouproject | February 9, 2008 5:29 PM | Report abuse

LA: Clinton 52%, Obama 48%
WA: Obama 59%, Clinton 41%
NE: Obama 57%, Clinton 43%

Obama gains pledged delegates as voters see him as the strongest challenger to McCain. Can they convince the superdelegates? Can this young Fixista show her college classmates just how nerdy she is with her new t-shirt?

Posted by: mspiegelman | February 9, 2008 5:25 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 51 Clinton 49
WA: Obama 58 Clinton 42
Nebraska: Obama 65 Clinton 35

Majority of headlines cover Obama´s surprisingly large margin of victory in WA and Nebraska as evidence of an ´Obama Wave´, while others hypothosize Clinton´s surprisingly close loss (or win) in LA to show that she is reaching across ethnic lines. Thousands of papers and bloggers once again cut an paste the phrase ´no knockout punch´, all eyes turn towards the Potomic Primary, and I´ll take a large.

Posted by: Oberfrobe | February 9, 2008 5:19 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 60 Clinton 40
WA: Clinton 50.50 Obama 49.50
Nebraska: Clinton 50.50 Obama 49.50
Maine: Clinton 50.50 49.50

I want The Fix shirt :)

Posted by: ScienceNerd | February 9, 2008 5:05 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 62, Clinton 37
WA: Obama 76, Clinton 24
Neb: Obama 71, Clinton 29

Obama Crushes Clinton in Washington and Nebraska Caucuses. Blacks, whites, young, and old come together for Obama in Louisiana. Clinton team overestimates recent campaign contributions and takes out another self-supporting loan.

Posted by: runjeremy | February 9, 2008 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana: Obama 59% Clinton 41%
Nebraska: Obama 62% Clinton 38%
Washington: Obama 51% Clinton 49%
Maine: Obama 51% Clinton 49%

Obama sweep and fund-raising edge has Clinton camp nervous heading to Potomac primaries

Posted by: BillEdwards | February 9, 2008 4:50 PM | Report abuse

Wow lyle, how do you manage to do that without your head exploding? "I hear there's great news for HRC, but if not, it's malicious rumors put out by her enemies."

Posted by: malis | February 9, 2008 4:50 PM | Report abuse

NE- Obama 61, Clinton 38
WA- Obama 52, Clinton 48
LA- Obama 65, Clinton 35
ME- Obama 51, Clinton 49

Obama sweeps weekend contests looks to do well in upcoming Potomac Primary and beyond. Gender gap still exists, but white men are shifting towards Obama in increasing numbers.

Posted by: justinmmann | February 9, 2008 4:46 PM | Report abuse

NE- Obama 61, Clinton 38
WA- Obama 52, Clinton 48
LA- Obama 65, Clinton 35
ME- Clinton 51, Obama 49

Clinton avoids weekend sweep with big victory among women, but Obama has momentum heading into the Potomac Primary and the rest of February.

Posted by: jthemann | February 9, 2008 4:41 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana: Obama 57% Clinton 42%
Nebraska: Obama 65% Clinton 34%
Washington: Obama 48% Clinton 51ˇ%

Maine: Obama 46% Clinton 52%

Headline: Obama rolls like a tornado!

Posted by: darwinek | February 9, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 59%, Clinton 40%
NE: Obama 71%, Clinton 28%
WA: Obama 53%, Clinton 46%

Obama also wins ME; Clinton makes little post-mortem commotion about any of these contests (as well as the Potomac Primaries and the Feb 19 events) in anticipation for a strong showing in TX and OH.

Posted by: xiibaro | February 9, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Saw some reports about Wa., and there is just a possibility that Hillary may even win there despite The Media and even the Govenor supporting Obama. If this is any way accurate, it would be a HUGE Victory for Hillary. Personally, I think it is more spin coming out of the "Hillary Haters".

Posted by: lylepink | February 9, 2008 4:37 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 57, Clinton 41
NE: Obama 63, Clinton 32
WA: Obama 49, Clinton 49

ME: Obama 47, Clinton 50

Headline: Can Hillary stop Obama?

Posted by: dbroton01 | February 9, 2008 4:34 PM | Report abuse

USMC_Mike, since I didn't see mark_in_austin answer your question about reconsidering Huckabee, let me pass along something I think shows his rationale. As you know, he's pretty solid for McCain but willing to let Obama try to convince him otherwise (I'm opposite...for Obama but willing to listen to McCain).

A few days ago, mark responded to this post (on a string about VP speculation) from me:
______________

...to make one on-topic post, I agree with the conventional wisdom that very few voters make a decision based on the VP. This election, however, has one exception.

Given his age and despite how robust he may be today, McCain's VP has a higher than typical chance of of assuming the Presidency. I've said before that, although I favor Obama, I'm willing to let McCain convince me. Mandatory, however, that his VP be fully qualified and able to serve as president.

Most of the names offered in speculation today are qualified (at least qualified to grow into the job).

Exception is Huckabee. He disqualified himself early through his rejection of the scientific method, and reinforced that disqualification with his statements about the need to change the Constitution to be in accordance with his interpretation of God's law.

Huckabee as VP disqualifies McCain as President, at least for this voter.
____________

Mark's response was that about wrapped up his feeling about Huckabee too but still probably wouldn't prevent him from voting for McCain, although he was going to send a note to the McCain on that subject (pretty sure I got that right but please confirm with mark).

Posted by: malis | February 9, 2008 4:30 PM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 58, Clinton 42
NE: Obama 69, Clinton 31
LA: Obama 61, Clinton 39

Storyline: Obama takes all three Africa-American states relying heavily on African-American support and Africa-friendly African policies.

Posted by: dc26milo2 | February 9, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

LA: 60 - 40
WA: 60 - 40
NE: 60 - 40
ME: 54 - 46

"Clinton fires her pimps. Vows fresh approach will prevent deathspiral."

Posted by: seanfur1l1l | February 9, 2008 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Alternate storyline:

The Patti aka "Not Lupone" Solis Doyle, Mark Penn and the Press Guy (couldn't find his name) barbershop quartet (Bubba, the fourth member, is rationalizing his "distorted- misinterpreted" sins to the Jesse Sr. Jackson-Al Sharpton clique, so it's a three-legged quartet for now) find their voice and sing in Hillaryesque manner the torch song "And this is not the beginning of the end, my friends but the end of the beginning" to the tune of "I did it My way".

Having found their voice, the people are not amused and the governor of Puerto Rico does it his way and hijacks 67 electoral votes and holds them ransom in exchange for Puerto Rico independence.

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 4:15 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 64%, Clinton 31%
NE: Obama 68%, Clinton 32%
WA: Obama 62%, Clinton 38%
ME: Clinton 58%, Obama 42%

Storyline: Obama crushes Clinton 3-1 in weekend primaries. Looks ahead to sweep the Potomac primary. Clinton camp blames MSNBC commentator Shuster, looks to reinstate FL and MI delegates.

Posted by: michael | February 9, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 60, Clinton 40
WA: Obama 67, Clinton 33
NE: Obama 58, Clinton 42

Storyline: With news of Clinton's 5M loan to her own campaign and three weekend loses, Clinton supporters begin to worry.

Posted by: MrWallace | February 9, 2008 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana
Obama - 63%
Clinton - 35%

Nebraska
Obama - 60%
Clinton - 37%

Washington
Obama - 51%
Clinton - 48%

It's "Fat Saturday" for Obama; Clinton's singin' the Delta Blues.

Posted by: chickens97 | February 9, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

storyline: Obama sweeps more caucuses and heavily African-American states; Clinton focus on March 4th

Posted by: lappzimm | February 9, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 64, Clinton 36
NE: Obama 62, Clinton 38
LA: Obama 63, Clinton 35

Posted by: lappzimm | February 9, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana:

Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

Nebraska:

Obama 57%
Clinton 43%

Washington:

Obama 55%
Clinton 45%

Storyline: Obama Sweeps Saturday.

Posted by: ATinjum | February 9, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

NE: Obama 68, Clinton 32
WA: Obama 59, Clinton 41
LA: Obama 60, Clinton 40

Storyline: Obama pulls ahead in the delegate race. Is he now the front-runner?

Posted by: renewkir | February 9, 2008 3:51 PM | Report abuse

LA : Obama 58 , Clinton 42
NE : Obama 65 , Clinton 35
WA : Obama 55 , Clinton 45
ME : Clinton 51 , Obama 49

Obama surges , Clinton wins ME to blunt momentum . All eyes on VA

Posted by: brokenglassdemocrat | February 9, 2008 3:47 PM | Report abuse

LA = Obama 57, Clinton 42
NE = Obama 65, Clinton 33
WA = Obama 54, Clinton = 45

Storyline: Obama victories fueled by independent vote in red states gives him a small upper hand. Clinton's Sunday victory in Maine does little to blunt Obama-mania going into the Mid-Atlantic primaries.

Posted by: DPeyton | February 9, 2008 3:40 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 56%; Obama 44%
NE: Obama 72%; Clinton 28%
WA: Obama 61%; Clinton 39%

Storyline: Obama sweeps, but how valuable is momentum?

Posted by: paulnolette | February 9, 2008 3:32 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 60%, Clinton 38%
NE: Obama 65%, Clinton 32%
WA: Obama 54%, Clinton 45%

Tail wind is behind Obama as he clears the field

Posted by: soodus | February 9, 2008 3:24 PM | Report abuse

WA
Obama: 57
Clinton: 40

NE
Obama: 53
Clinton: 45

LA
Obama: 58
Clinton: 39

With tight Maine race, and more favorable MD and VA polls for Obama released, commentators begin hesitantly to call Clinton "underdog" - but in the aftermath of NH, with uncertainty over FL and MI, and with Ohio and Texas still looming, the term is always strongly qualified.

Posted by: gezi | February 9, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

WA:
Obama 57
Clinton 42

NE:
Obama 59
Clinton 35

LA:
Obama 51
Clinton 48

Headline:
Obama carries the day. Three very different states signal that the momentum may finally be on his side. It's time that the frontrunner status switches to the Senator from Illinois.

Posted by: katrina.kleinwachter | February 9, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

LA Obama 67%, Clinton 33%

NE Obama 70%, Clinton 30%

WA Obama 55%, Clinton 45%

Storyline: Obama gains momentum for 2/12 races; Democrats ponder potential troubles heading toward the convention as it becomes increasingly clear that this race is going to be long, messy, and drawn-out.

Posted by: ssherraden | February 9, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 56%
Clinton 42%

NE
Obama 68%
Clinton 31%

WA
Obama 59%
Clinton 40%

Posted by: peterbschafer | February 9, 2008 3:06 PM | Report abuse

LA: Paul 80%; Obama 18%; Clinton 2%
ME: Paul 92%; Obama 7%; Clinton 1%
NE: Paul 70%; Obama 30%; Clinton 0%
WA: Paul 100%;

"Due to a recent hacker attack coupled with armed Seattle-based Paulite militia men, Ron Paul sweeps in to take the Democratic and Republican weekend primaries and caucuses, despite not being on the democratic ballot.

While the Democratic party is considering nullification of the results, the Republican party is at a loss of how to handle the situation."

Posted by: jamesecollinsjr | February 9, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 63%, Clinton 35%
NE: Obama 71%, Clinton 28%
WA: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Obama sweeps Saturday's vote to enter virtual tie in delegates. Clinton claims to have beat expectations in WA, and predicts to wrap-up nomination by getting the "anti-establishment vote" in VA, TX, and PA.

Posted by: gandalf12345 | February 9, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 60% Clinton 40%
NE: Obama 55% Clinton 43%
ME: Obama 52% Clinton 47%
WA: Obama 56% Clinton 42%

Posted by: Pfedders | February 9, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

WA: Clinton 52%; Obama 48%
NE: Obama 60%; Clinton 40%
LA: Obama 53%; Clinton 47%
ME: Clinton 55%; Obama 45%

Asian Americans choose Clinton overwhelmingly in Washington State, while Obama wins Post-Katrina Louisiana

Posted by: yank1082 | February 9, 2008 2:50 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 68%, Clinton 32%
NE: Obama 61%, Clinton 39%
WA: Obama 65%, Clinton 35%

Obama walks away with post Super T primaries. Howard Dean calls both Candidates in for a Pow-Pow.

Posted by: thebobbob | February 9, 2008 2:44 PM | Report abuse

Washington: Obama 54, Clinton 46
Louisiana: Obama 57, Clinton 42, Edwards 1
Nebraska: Obama 60, Clinton 40
Maine: Clinton 52, Obama 48

Storyline: Maine win and high expectations for Obama keeps Clinton campaign very much afloat, but do not halt the big Obama momentum going into Chesapeake Tuesday, where he's expected to win big. Clinton aides move even faster to build firewalls in Ohio and Texas.

Posted by: peregrine1988 | February 9, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana:
Obama - 61%
Clinton - 36%

Nebraska:
Obama - 59%
Clinton - 39%

Washington:
Obama - 58%
Clinton - 40%

Storyline: Obama continues his streak of winning caucus states and states with large African-American populations. Obama continues to outspend Hillary. If Hillary's financial difficulties continue, will she continue to lose, even past February?

Posted by: jrdodson81 | February 9, 2008 2:39 PM | Report abuse

manuel | February 9, 2008 01:50 PM

Thanks for the link.

So, is the Democratic party going to be wagged by a mini dictator a la Chavez? Is this legal?

As Barone writes, the superdelegates can muffle and neutralize this banana republic scenario.

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 2:35 PM | Report abuse

Nebraska
Obama 65
Clinton 35

Louisiana
Obama 61
Clinton 39

Washington
Obama 54
Clinton 46

Obama moves toward Potamic primary with chance to catch Clinton in overall delegates.

Posted by: JasonT910 | February 9, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 56%, Clinton 40%
NE: Obama 63%, Clinton 37%
WA: Obama 52%, Clinton 46%

Headline: "Obama Victories May Give Him the Momentum He Needs to Potomac Tueday"

Posted by: murawski | February 9, 2008 2:32 PM | Report abuse

True to form, Obama will win caucuses and primaries with a heavy concentration of black
voters. Clinton will win everything else. Nothing has changed. No voters are being moved.

Posted by: lpeter59 | February 9, 2008 2:26 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 65% Clinton 33%
NE: Obama 66% Clinton 34%
WA: Obama 56% Clinton 41%

Storyline: Obama's post-Super Tuesday momentum nets him wins here, but can he score big on 2/9?

Posted by: metstotop333 | February 9, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana Obama 63% Clinton 37%
Nebraska Obama 68% Clinton 32%
Washington Obama 58% Clinton 42%

Clinton finishes in a really "strong" second place, declares herself "the Comeback Kid"

Posted by: gckarcher | February 9, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Louisiana: Obama 60%
Clinton 40%
Nebraska: Obama 65%
Clinton 35%
Washington: Obama 50.5%
Clinton 49.5%

Obama cleans up as money and electability issues haunt Hillary.

Posted by: ezschwartz | February 9, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

WA:
Obama 52
Clinton 48

NE:
Obama 66
Clinton 34

LA:
Obama 59
Clinton 41

Posted by: bmo124 | February 9, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 32% total votes
Clinton 30% total votes
McCain 28% Total votes
Remnant of Republicans 5%
Remnant of Democrats 5%

WA

Clinton 35% Total Vote
Obama 33% Total Vote
McCain 28% Total Vote
Republican remnant 1 % Total Vote
Democrat Remnant 3% Total Vote

Headline "Hillary fails to knock out Obama"

Posted by: ceflynline | February 9, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Some have suggested that the Puerto Rico Democratic delegation might decide this primary in June. It holds 63 winner-takes-all delegates. Check out the discussion:
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/2/6/puerto-rican-poll-power.html

It would be quite an interesting scenario.

Posted by: manuel | February 9, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 57% Clinton 40%
NE: Obama 64% Clinton 33%
WA: Obama 52% Clinton 47%
ME: Obama 45% Clinton 55%

Obama wins big in LA and NE as Hillary never campaigned in either. NE win diminished in media as a typical Obama caucus result.
Small Obama margin in WA prompts Hillary to reinforce argument that caucuses are unfair, media plays up closeness of result.
Hillary wins ME as demographics are in her favor, but no one really notices Sunday result as Sunday shows all air before results are known.

Posted by: buchel | February 9, 2008 1:44 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 61
Clinton 33
NE: Obama 69
Clinton 25
WA: Obama 47
Clinton 53
ME: Obama 40
Clinton 55

Weekend results reflect the same muddle from Super Tuesday. Obama appears to be fading slightly just as Clinton appears to be running out of money. Potomac/Chesapeak primaries will only muddy the waters further.

Posted by: cferry3124 | February 9, 2008 1:39 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 54%, Clinton 44%
NE: Obama 60%, Clinton 40%
WA: Obama 60%, Clinton 40%

Obama's Saturday wins won't give him much momentum due to being expected, and Clinton's close win in Maine on Sunday will be spun well by her and help her in the next week.

Posted by: perkins.nathaniel | February 9, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

optimyst | February 9, 2008 12:02 PM

I hear you.

Storyline: For the first time in history, African Americans for Obama and Latinos for What's-her-name, decide state-wide results. Whichever group has a larger voting majority hands the state to one or the other candidate.

Latinos, therefore, are running the destiny of the Democratic nomination.

Posted by: rfpiktor | February 9, 2008 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Washington - Obama 53% Clinton 45%
Louisiana - Obama 55% Clinton 42%
Nebraska - Obama 64% Clinton 36%

Obama nabs expected wins, convention showdown likely

Posted by: optimyst | February 9, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Predictions:
I've been to South Carolina and Georgia volunteering for the Obama campaign. In both cases, we won by a margin of more than 25%. I know how the campaign run the score up on election day. Trust me it won't be close in Louisiana. Here you go;

Louisiana

Obama 62%

Clinton 36%

Edwards/others 2%

Nebraska

Obama 61%

Clinton 39%

Washington

Obama 60%

Clinton 40%

Story line:
Shake up inside the Clinton Camp as Obama sweeped the weekend states and poised to win big in the Potomac primaries. Mark Penn is fired and new guns are hired.

Jim Webb, senator from Virgina, endorses Obama on Sunday in the wake of his win over the weekend.

Clinton Camp worries about the effect of Obama's new found momentum and is intensifying her effort in TX and Ohio.

Posted by: jr1886 | February 9, 2008 1:27 PM | Report abuse

NE: Obama 61 Clinton 39
WA: Obama 54 Clinton 44
LA: Obama 56 Clinton 41

Obama fulfills expectations, press questions if Hillary's strength on March 4th might come too late

Posted by: mbcohen | February 9, 2008 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Nebraska: Obama: 65%; Clinton 44: 34%;
Louisiana: Obama: 60%; Clinton 44: 39%;
Washington: Obama: 67%; Clinton 44: 32%;
Virgin Islands: Obama: 35%; Clinton 44: 64%.

Obama continues to dominate caucuses, the midwest and the northwest. Post super-Tuesday fundraising totals for the Obama campaign, combined with his three-state win, continue to send jitters through Clinton 44 fundraisers despite her $8 million haul.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | February 9, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 50%, Clinton 42%, Edwards 5%
NE: Obama 59%, Clinton 38%
WA: Obama 52%, Clinton 48%

Storyline: New Orleans voters reward John Edwards with strong showing even though his campaign is "suspended." Clinton tries to downplay results.

Posted by: theseventen | February 9, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

WA Obama 50 Clinton 50
LA Obama 51 Clinton 49
NE Obama 55 Clinton 45
ME Obama 34 Clinton 66

Race remains even, warning shot to Obama in WA: Don't take any state for granted.

Posted by: apaulus | February 9, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 58%, Clinton 39%
WA: Obama 57%, Clinton 41%
NE: Obama 65%, Clinton 33%
ME: Obama 51%, Clinton 47%

Obama builds momentum, sweeping all four contests.

Posted by: mrassam60 | February 9, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Obama Clinton

La 58% 42%
Neb 56% 44%
Wa 45% 55%
Me 55% 45%

Obama the Democratic front runner.

Peter L.
Sun City Roseville California

Posted by: isart | February 9, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 63% Clinton 37%
NE: Obama 73% Clinton 25%
LA: Obama 55% Clinton 43%

Obama organization shows strength in caucus states (again), but Maine caucus pandemonium steals the spotlight.

Posted by: olov.stenlund | February 9, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

WA: Clinton 54 Obama 46
LA: Obama 58 Clinton 42
NE: Obama 65 Clinton 35
VI: Clinton 54 Obama 46

Clinton performs better than expected, remains front runner

Posted by: ma261988 | February 9, 2008 12:24 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 58%, Clinton 40%
WA: Obama 51%, Clinton 47%
NE: Obama 55%, Clinton 43%

Obama gains mo, Hillary goes negative,
BIG TIME!

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Posted by: Truth_Hunter | February 9, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

LA - Obama wins 51 to 46
WA - Clinton wins 53 to 46
NE - Obama wins 59 to 37

(ME - Obama wins 52 to 46)

"Clinton maintains narrow lead in delegates heading into Patomac primary, racial and gender gaps persist"

Accompanying analysis pieces move from covering the well-worn black/Hispanic split to exploring why Asians prefer Clinton so strongly. Expectations are accordingly reset for her to perform better than initially anticipated in (Northern) Virginia and the upcoming Hawaii contest.

Posted by: rierardi | February 9, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Attn Longhorn Mark,

I know I'm not on here much anymore, but for some reason I thought about you the other day.

You had once considered Huckabee, back when he was a blip on the map.

Then you researched the fair tax.

I urge you to give him a "second look". (My sense is TX could be big for him.)

We both know the fair tax could NEVER pass through congress, so if you eliminate that as one of his 'negatives'...

Think about it -- I'll try to post again on Tuesday.

Let's talk.

Posted by: USMC_Mike | February 9, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 63% to 37%
NB: Obama 70% to 30%
WA: Obama 58% to 39%

Clinton Strike One: Obama hits a triple and increases he lead among Pledged delegates, Obama looks to deliver another strike to Clinton with big wins on Chesapeake Tuesday and Maine.

Posted by: sjxylib | February 9, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 63% to 37%
NB: Obama 70% to 30%
WA: Obama 58% to 39%

Clinton Strike One: Obama hits a triple and increases he lead among Pledged delegates, Obama looks to deliver another strike to Clinton with big wins on Chesapeake Tuesday and Maine.

Posted by: sjxylib | February 9, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Lousiana - Obama: 62% Clinton: 38%
Washington - Obama: 54% Clinton: 46%
Nebraska - Obama: 57% Clinton: 43%

Storyline: Obama sweeps Saturday caucuses. Is Obama the new frontrunner? Maine sole comfort for Clinton campaign.

Posted by: gordie_foote | February 9, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

Well, fact or fiction, Fix readers have bought in to the idea of Hillary as underdog despite the fact that Hillary still leads in the daily tracking polls. Most readers are predicting an Obama sweep, so sweep he must. This keeps Hillary safe in her expectation zone, an underdog fighting for March 4 with a front runner hesitant to debate.

Posted by: optimyst | February 9, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 59% Clinton 41%
LA: Obama 55% Clinton 45%
NE: Obama 52% Clinton 48%

Posted by: tcwoodruff | February 9, 2008 12:00 PM | Report abuse

Obama 55% in Wa. and La., and 45% in Ne.--Clinton 45% in Wa. and La., and 55% in Ne.--Story Line: Clinton wins Big in one of the most RED of the red states.

Posted by: lylepink | February 9, 2008 11:57 AM | Report abuse

Louisiana - Clinton 49 Obama 47
Nebraska - Clinton 31 Obama 67
Washignton - Clinton 36 Obama 59


Supprise win for Clinton, but collapse of vote in nebraska and washington still leave the race even.

Posted by: dhg1 | February 9, 2008 11:56 AM | Report abuse

WA:
Obama 57%
Clinton 43%

NE:
Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

LA:
Obama 64%
Clinton 36%

Storyline: Obama takes delegate lead, but race is still as close as ever. All eyes shift to Potomac Primary, but more importantly, Virginia.

Posted by: sofiamj | February 9, 2008 11:48 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 61, Clinton 37
NE: Obama 56, Clinton 42
WA: Obama 55, Clinton 44

Obama carries momentum into the Potomac Primary on Tuesday. Clinton points to strength in March 4 states.

Posted by: bennyguns | February 9, 2008 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Oh yeah, and ME: Clinton 51 Obama 49

MSM amplifies its freakout from the previous day about how Clinton is gaining momentum, ignoring ME's similarity to NH and the fact that Obama's own campaign projects a loss in ME according to leaked internal data.

Posted by: Nissl | February 9, 2008 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Louisiana: Obama 60%, Clinton 38%
Nebraska: Obama 64%, Clinton 36%
Washington: Obama 57%, Clinton 43%

Storyline: Obama narrows the overall delegate gap and increases his advantage among pledged delegates, but in states demographically or structurally favorable to him, where anything less would have been disastrous. But by default, he is now and will now be treated as the frontrunner, and the Clinton people couldn't be happier.

(A caveat, on candidate spin: this week's lower profile, and what will be a proud though relatively muted weekend reception of victory by the Obama camp underscores staffers' worries that the hype machine pre-Feb 5 spun out of their control and needs to be tamped down considerably. They will take the victories, but also gladly take the toned-down chorus of millions [and perhaps even hope for a loss in Maine]. Also, watch how well, and how quietly they pivot from underdog to frontrunner.)

Posted by: briantucker_2 | February 9, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

I'm playing under protest as you're failing to count us Mainers! What happened to so goes Maine so goes the nation?

Louisiana: O= 59% HRC= 38%
Nebraska: O= 60% HRC= 37%
Washington: O= 55% HRC= 42%
Maine: O= 56% HRC= 43%

storyline: HRC has sufficiently dampened expectations that none of this comes as a surprise, hopefully victories in NE, WA, and ME will make the media shut up about the "racial divide.

Posted by: arlee1 | February 9, 2008 11:38 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 54 Clinton 44 Other 2
NE: Obama 57 Clinton 42 Other 1
WA: Obama 54 Clinton 45 Other 1

Despite the fact that he wins all 3 states soundly and performs way ahead of where anyone would have expected him in these states 3 weeks ago, the media falls for the Clinton spin. AGAIN.

So: "Clinton outperforms expectations, Obama's momentum reversing?"

Posted by: Nissl | February 9, 2008 11:37 AM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 57, Clinton 43
NE: Obama 56, Clinton 44
LA: Obama 62, Clinton 37

VI: Obama 53, Clinton 47
ME: Obama 52, Clinton 48

Line #1: Race is still Hillary's to lose after Obama gets less than 100% of weekend vote, failing to meet media expectations.

Line #2: Obama wins Virgin Islands, despite Clinton name recognition and lack of campaign presence in territory.

Real storyline: Clinton holds strong in some key areas, but fails to avoid weekend sweep. Four more states and a U.S. territory finish counting votes before New Mexico does.

Posted by: faberman.jason | February 9, 2008 11:34 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 62%
Clinton 38%
NE: Obama 63%
Clinton 37@
WA: Obama 71%
Clinton 29%
Superdelegates increasingly caught in crossfire as campaigns apply pressure.

Posted by: abramfran | February 9, 2008 11:31 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 60%, Clinton 38%
NE: Obama 65%, Clinton 30%
WA: Clinton 50%, Obama 48%

New Camelot claims Big Mo; Billary claims Upset by winning Washington, but must actually upset Obama's predicted Potomac sweep to stay viable in eyes of donors.

Posted by: earldjames | February 9, 2008 11:28 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 66%, Clinton 30%
NE: Obama 70%, Clinton 22%
WA: Obama 55%, Clinton 45%

storyline: Bolstered by continued support from African americans and upper class whites, a clean sweep for Obama.

Posted by: salilgarg | February 9, 2008 11:28 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 65 Clinton 33
NE: Obama 60 Clinton 37
WA: Obama 56 Clinton 43
ME: Obama 53 Clinton 46

Obama wins everything on his way to 9 straight leading into March 4.

Posted by: maxllom | February 9, 2008 11:26 AM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 50%, Clinton 49%
NE: Obama 55%, Clinton 44%
LA: Obama 52%, Clinton 47%

With "The Google Effect", Obama will win big:

http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=47

Posted by: davidmwe | February 9, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 64%, Clinton 32%
NE: Obama 70%, Clinton 30%
WA: Obama 58%, Clinton 40%

Obama Up Delegate Count on Sweep of Caucus Saturday


t-shirt in XL


Posted by: dpsa27 | February 9, 2008 11:11 AM | Report abuse

WA - Obama 58 Clinton 40
NE - Obama 57 Clinton 43
LA - Obama 56 Clinton 40

Clinton weeps, Obama sweeps.

Posted by: MoreAndBetterPolls | February 9, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 57% Clinton 42%
NE: Obama 50% Clinton 45%
WA: Clinton 49% Obama 48%

Storyline:

Not time to rest on his wins, Obama heads out to the Maine Caucus and Potomac Primaries are

Posted by: withcommonsense | February 9, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

LA - Obama 63 Clinton 35
NE - Obama 57 Clinton 42
WA - Obama 53 Clinton 45

Storyline - Obama sweeps saturday sweepstakes. It's going to be a long February for Clinton.

Posted by: davehomuth | February 9, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

Washington--
Obama: 52%
Clinton: 46%

Nebraska--
Obama: 70%
Clinton: 28%

Louisiana--
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 38%

Storyline: Obama Sweeps Saturday's Contests, as Expected. Clinton Criticizes Caucus Format; Says True Test to Come March 4th.

Posted by: leejoshr | February 9, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 58% Clinton 38%
NE: Obama 62% Clinton 36%
WA: Obama 58% Clinton 41%

Obama flexes muscle for February sweep.

Posted by: mcgruff4 | February 9, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 55% Clinton 43%
NE: Obama 61% Clinton 37%
WA: Obama 63% Clinton 34%

As expected, Sen. Obama sweeps on Saturday giving him continued momentum for Tuesday. Sen. Clinton will downplay the defeat and even claim a moral victory in a closer than predicted Louisiana primary.

Posted by: lobe96 | February 9, 2008 10:58 AM | Report abuse

Lousiana
Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Nebraska
Obama 67%
Clinton 30%

Washington
Obama 53%
Clinton 45%

Maine
Obama 59%
Clinton 41%

Storyline: Clinton takes a beating today and Tuesday in the battle for the potomac and plans for March 4th and a showdown at the OT (Ohio and Texas) Corral but she may not make it as some in the higher up of the DNC (the super delegates) start to come out and saying that they will endorse Obama to rally the party ,with McCain having a head start in the general, behind them or this goes to Denver in a deadlock because thats what the math looks like.

Posted by: hoss516 | February 9, 2008 10:49 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 55, Clinton 42
WA: Obama 53, CLinton 47
Neb: Obama 61, Clinton 39
---

Maine: Obama 48, Clinton 52

------------------

Campaigns continue spin game -each claims to be ahead, but says other is the frontrunner

Posted by: terje2 | February 9, 2008 10:47 AM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 63
Clinton 36


NE
Obama 73
Clinton 26

WA
Obama 57
Clinton 42

Obama dominates 'subdued Saturday', Clinton aides spin that results were 'as expected'. The fight over MI and FL delegates intensifies.

Posted by: jimoneill50 | February 9, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 70%, Clinton 30%
NE: Obama 55%, Clinton 45%
WA: Obama 69%, Clinton 31%

Obama sweeps LA and WA; Neb. closer but no cigar for the Clintons!

Posted by: johng1 | February 9, 2008 10:43 AM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 57%; Clinton 42%
NE: Obama 54%; Clinton 45%
LA: Obama 68%; Clinton 32%

Obama strong in another contested Senate state, Louisiana, and is past his first hurdle in running the table in February.

Posted by: jallenba | February 9, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 53%, Clinton 46%

NE: Obama 59%, Clinton 40%

WA: Obama 52%, Clinton 47%

ME: Obama 51%, Clinton 47%

Obama's weekend sweep makes a strong showing necessary for Clinton in Potomac Primary. An Obama sweep in VA, MD, & DC would lead to wins in WI & HI and cripple Clinton going into March 4.

Posted by: cam8 | February 9, 2008 10:36 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 65%; Clinton 31%
NE: Obama 58%; Clinton 38%
WA: Obama 53%; Clinton 45%

Obama sweeps the day but March 4 still looms large.

Posted by: clarktaylor9 | February 9, 2008 10:28 AM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 62%; Clinton 38%
NE: Obama 55%; Clinton 45%
LA: Clinton 51%; Obama 49%
ME: Clinton 55%; Obama 45%

Oh Mama, WA goes Obama! An expected gain for Clinton in Maine

Posted by: pjustinm | February 9, 2008 10:10 AM | Report abuse

WA: Obama - 49; Clinton - 49
NE: Obama - 53; Clinton - 45
LA: Obama - 56; Clinton - 43

Democratic party continues its stalemate, GOP unified in McCain.

Posted by: segatony | February 9, 2008 10:03 AM | Report abuse

Nebraska: Obama 65, Clinton 34
Louisiana: Obama 58, Clinton 40
Washington: Obama 57, Clinton 42

No stopping Obama on Saturday, how will strong showing affect Clinton advantage in bigger states.

Posted by: jseagrass | February 9, 2008 9:54 AM | Report abuse

LA

Obama 61
Clinton 38

NE

Obama 58
Clinton 41

WA

Obama 52
Clinton 47

Obama emerges as frontrunner, Obama fundraising reaches new records. Clinton announces another cash infusion by 2/25. Clinton eyes seen watering up again....and finally, Redskins win Super Bowl XXXXVIII.

Posted by: marylandlegal | February 9, 2008 9:51 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 58%, Clinton 39%
NE: Obama 52%, Clinton 47%
WA: Clinton 51%, Obama 48%
ME: Clinton 58%, Obama 41%

Clinton pulled out a win in Washington on Saturday and a resounding win in Maine on Sunday gaining momentum. Obama's tide fades and crashes down in Virginia.

Posted by: jsindc | February 9, 2008 9:48 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 65% Clinton 33%
NE: Obama 68% Clinton 30%
WA: Obama 50% Clinton 35%

Obama wins by wide margins; Clinton campaign says that losses mean nothing.

Posted by: Schoone | February 9, 2008 9:46 AM | Report abuse

Oops, made a mistake. Let's try again:

LA:
Obama: 60
Clinton: 40

NE:
Obama: 78
Clinton: 22

WA:
Obama: 55
Clinton: 45

Headlines: Obama wins, but falls short of pundits expectations.

Posted by: storyofthefifthpeach | February 9, 2008 9:45 AM | Report abuse

LA:
Obama: 60
Clinton: 40

NE:
Obama: 78
Clinton: 22

WA:
Clinton: 55
Obama: 45

Headlines: Obama wins, but falls short of pundits expectations.

Posted by: storyofthefifthpeach | February 9, 2008 9:44 AM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 66%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 2%

NE
Obama 60%
Clinton 37%

WA
Obama 59%
Clinton 40%

ME
Obama 55%
Clinton 45%

Obama margin grows; Eyes turn to Potomac Primary. White vote split. Clinton looking to March primaries firewall.

Posted by: smikulen | February 9, 2008 9:43 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 52% Clinton 46%
NE: Obama 45% Clinton 45%
WA: Clinton 55% Obama 43%

Storyline:

Clinton stays alive, race stays competitive with Obama gaining momentum for Tuesday's votes.

Posted by: maaraj | February 9, 2008 9:33 AM | Report abuse

Wash: Clinton 51%
Obama 48%

La: Clinton 45%
Obama 52%

Neb: Clinton 49%
Obama 49%

Maine: Clinton 55%
Obama 44%

Florida Democrats Pledge votes to McCain to protest delegate lockout

Posted by: Mudrock63 | February 9, 2008 9:31 AM | Report abuse

LA
Obama 62
Clinton 36

NE 64
Clinton 33

WA Obama 56
Clinton 42

Storyline:
Hurricane Obama Gathers Strength! Heads for Landfall on the Potomac.

Posted by: dangreenstone | February 9, 2008 9:26 AM | Report abuse

LA:
Obama: 59
Clinton: 40

NE:
Obama: 62
Clinton: 38

WA:
Clinton: 52
Obama: 48

Storyline: Clinton narrowly avoids the sweep with WA win; claims momentum after strong Latino and Asian support. All eyes turn to VA.

Posted by: butlermatt | February 9, 2008 9:19 AM | Report abuse

WA: Obama 55%, Clinton 45%
NE: Obama 60%, Clinton 40%
LA: Obama 52%, Clinton 48%

"Obama again shows his strength in the caucus format, but Clinton makes it closer than many may have expected in Louisana, where tough economic times and changing demographics after Katrina (smaller African-American population, increased Latino population) appear to have given Clinton a boost."

Posted by: dougferguson | February 9, 2008 9:18 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 57%, Clinton 41%
NE: Obama 63%, Clinton 36%
WA: Obama 53%, Clinton 46%

Storyline: Obama wins enough delegates to move unambiguously ahead in pledged delegates, but the race is fundamentally the same as yesterday.

Posted by: qkanga | February 9, 2008 9:18 AM | Report abuse

LA Obama 61% Clinton 39%
NE Obama 64% Clinton 36%
WA Clinton 50.01% 49.99% (less than 500 vote separation)

Obama Wins More Delegates, Obama Wins More Overall Votes, Obama Wins More State. Press Declares Clinton Big Winner of the Day

Posted by: dcraven925 | February 9, 2008 9:14 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 61%, Clinton 38%
NE: Obama 64%, Clinton 36%
WA: Obama 53%, Clinton 47%
ME: Clinton 55%, Obama 45%

Obama shows his strength with independents and picks up larger than expected victories. Clinton saves the weekend shut out with a strong showing by women in Maine. All eyes on Virginia.

Posted by: mcmahon10 | February 9, 2008 9:12 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 57%, Clinton 41%
NE: Obama 52%, Clinton 48%
WA: Obama 53%, Clinton 45%

Concern grows for Clinton after three week-end defeats.

Posted by: pcjnyc | February 9, 2008 9:11 AM | Report abuse

LA: Obama 59%, Clinton 39%
NE: Obama 66%, Clinton 31%
WA: Obama 51%, Clinton 48%

"Obama begins his sweep of February contests and edges towards parity with Clinton in the total delegate count. All eyes turn towards the Potomac Primary, where Obama is again expected to sweep all three contests."

Posted by: chocoguy0 | February 9, 2008 9:00 AM | Report abuse

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