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Iowa Caucuses -- Prediction Time!

After all of the waiting and anticipating, Iowa caucus day is here!

The Fix will be writing a constantly updating news story throughout the late afternoon and evening on washingtonpost.com, which we will be cross-publishing in this space. (The stories will start being published here and on the main site at around 5 p.m. ET.)

In the meantime, what would an Election Day be without predictions? The Fix sampled a selection of unaffiliated political operatives to gather their predictions about the first-, second- and third-place finishers for both Democrats and Republicans. The experts were also asked to predict what THE storyline coming out of Iowa will be.

Most were brave enough to put their names to their predictions. Some were not. (Boo!). A sampling of their answers is provided below. The consensus was that Barack Obama will win the Democratic caucuses and Mitt Romney will emerge on the Republican side. The storyline of choice among these political pros is a stronger-than-expected third-place finish by John McCain that propels him to a win in New Hampshire's GOP primary next Tuesday.

We want to hear from you too, so offer your own predictions in the comments section below. Remember we want your predictions for first, second and third place (with percentages) for Republicans and Democrats -- AND your thought on the prevailing storyline that will dominate media coverage in the five days between tonight's votes and the New Hampshire primary.

The political pro and Fix reader closest to the actual results will have their names and their predictions featured in a Fix post tomorrow.

To the predictions!

* Neil Newhouse, Republican pollster, Public Opinion Strategies

Democrats
Edwards: 32%
Obama: 31
Clinton: 30

Republicans
Romney: 36%
Huckabee: 32
McCain: 16

Storyline: "Populist, anti-corporate message scores well among Democrats and Republicans."

* Marc Elias, Democratic strategist, Perkins Coie

Democrats
Obama: 33%
Clinton: 27
Edwards: 20

Republicans
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 30
McCain: 22

Storyline: Both parties have new frontrunners with the big 'mo' going into New Hampshire."

* Ed Failor Jr, Republican strategist, Iowans for Tax Relief

Democrats
Edwards: 36%
Obama: 32
Clinton: 27

Republicans
Romney: 26%
Huckabee: 24
McCain: 21

Storyline: "Romney didn't win by nearly enough considering all the money he spent in Iowa. Fantastic Iowa brain trust....but even they couldn't sell Mitt."

* Jeff Liszt, Democratic pollster, Anzalone Liszt

Democrats
Obama: 40%
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 30

Republicans
Huckabee 38%
Romney: 31
McCain: 16

Storyline: "The story on the Democratic side is that Obama's late momentum is making New Hampshire look like the Maginot Line for Clinton."

* John Feehery, Republican strategist

Democrats
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 25
Obama: 22

Republicans:
Romney 34%
Huckabee: 24
McCain: 18

Storyline: "Huckabee's ad blunder, coupled with the Bhutto assassination, helps Romney prevail but the real story is the McCain comeback."

* Will Robinson, Democratic media consultant, The New Media Firm

Democrats
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 31
Edwards: 29

Republicans
Romney: 33%
Huckabee: 29
McCain: 17

Storyline: "GOP headline could be a Romney comeback against Huckabee and that Clinton narrowly survives a run at her -- the Democratic race is now a two-person race even though Edwards was a close third -- but does Obama get a Gary Hart surge in New Hampshire."

* Erik Potholm, Republican media consultant, Stevens Reed Curcio Potholm

Declined to predict a full slate of winners but offered this storyline: "Negative ads work...when you actually run them. Romney squeaks out a win."

* Mark Nevins, Democratic strategist

Democrats
Obama: 34
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 29

Republicans
Romney: 36
Huckabee:30
McCain: 15

Storyline: "Edwards will be ahead of Clinton all night and only at the very end (like Friday morning) will she wind up in second. It will be treated like a third place finish though."

*John Weaver, Republican consultant, former McCain senior adviser

Democrats
Obama: 32
Edwards: 27
Clinton: 26

Republicans
Romney: 29
Huckabee: 27
McCain: 19

Story line: "Iowa Boosts Mavericks; NH Looms Large for McCain, Clinton"

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 3, 2008; 12:08 PM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: FixCam: Three Questions for the Caucuses
Next: Obama Wins Iowa

Comments

Biden quits the race but adds "I'm not going away"

As he rants on and on he says "It's great to be me".

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 3, 2008 11:25 PM | Report abuse

Newsweek asks: Who can stop Obama?

http://www.newsweek.com/id/84290

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 3, 2008 11:00 PM | Report abuse

BAM!! Who called it? I nailed the democratic order almost to the percentage. And I flipped Thompson and McCain on the GOP side but almost called #1 Huck and #2 Romney to the exact number - in fact I called Huck at 35% so I was dead on. I win.

Posted by: thecrisis | January 3, 2008 10:12 PM | Report abuse

Actually, Mark, I wouldn't have a problem with crossover voting. I think parties are the source of partisan behavior; i.e., substituting the judgment of the party for one's own when deciding which candidates and/or positions to support.

Posted by: bokonon13 | January 3, 2008 8:53 PM | Report abuse

Dem
Obama 34
Clinton 29
Edwards 25

Rep
Romney 33
Huckabee 30
McCain 19

Posted by: emilyhibberd | January 3, 2008 8:27 PM | Report abuse

Dem:
Obama 29
Edwards 24
Clinton 21
Biden 10 (and a jump in NH)

Rep
Huck 28
Mitt 24
McCain 20
Rudy 13

Posted by: johnbessey | January 3, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

"'Oppressed Female, betrayed spouse,ugly chubby senior citizen, and now 3rd place finisher..' Obama said shaking his head.

'She had it all.'"

JaxMax, you describe it so clearly. I could paint a picture of it if I wasn't laughing so hard. Who would you get to play Hillary and Obama?

Posted by: bokonon13 | January 3, 2008 7:55 PM | Report abuse

GOP:
Mitt-32
Huck-28
Paul-13
Thompson-13
McCain-11

Dems:
Barack-34
Edwards-31
Hillary-30

Posted by: dryflypolitics | January 3, 2008 7:54 PM | Report abuse

Obama 31
Clinton 30
Edwards 30

Dem Side: Is so small a win in Iowa enough to propel Obama to a win in NH, or was the election so close as to be rendered moot?

Huckabee 32
Romney 29
McCain 17

Rep Side: McCain's assention as it pertains to romney's fall. Was McCain's stronger than expected and Romney's weaker than expected performance enough to ensure McCain a victory in NH?

Posted by: 4n6kidnappedmylife | January 3, 2008 7:22 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama: 30.0003%
Edwards: 30.002%
Clinton: 30.001%

Republicans
McCain: 29.003%
Huckabee: 29.002%
Romney: 29.001%

Storyline: Iowa who?

Posted by: egc52556 | January 3, 2008 7:16 PM | Report abuse

jerome: if the issue was indeed Bill Clinton, the voters would put him and his input back in the WH again and again. Unfortunately, the candidate is Hillary Clinton.

Posted by: Spectator2 | January 3, 2008 7:09 PM | Report abuse

This Republican Against Bush changes his mind about my earlier prediction, picking Ron Paul for 4th. Ron Paul will win the Republican caucus, or straw pole. He's been kicking a-- in straw poles across the country. Besides, the smart Repubs will soon figure out that he's the only one who will be able to whip Hillary's a--.

As for the dems, it'll be:

Edwards @ 31
Obama @ 27
Hillary @ 26

For the Repubs, it'll be:

Ron (the next president) Paul @ 26
Huckabee @ 23
Romney @ 22
McCain @ 21

Wake up people! Our country has been hijacked by Bush and Dick! It's time to take it back!

Posted by: stanford.stefan | January 3, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Clinton: 32%
Obama: 29%
Edwards: 27%

Republicans:
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 25%
McCain: 18%

Enthusiasm for Obama and Huckabee wavers among supporters who believed the two were too exciting to lose. Romney and Clinton become almost certain nominees in the coming week.

Posted by: evman2010 | January 3, 2008 6:17 PM | Report abuse

"Movement Conservatives consign GOP to minority status for over a generation due to their gift for alienating increasing numbers of non-white voters and inability to analyze a complex world properly.
"

here here. gone for a generation. Rather than pointing fingers and blaming others they should take responsiblity for their actions and throw criminals in jail. That is the only thing that can save the gop. Other than that, if they go down the fascist road, they will be eliminated from politics for 30 years. The choices is theirs. They need to stop ointing fingers and look in the mirror.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Oh, yes, MDH's finish, 1 or 2, against all that cash, is the STORY. I agree.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 3, 2008 6:10 PM | Report abuse

Mike, I found this story in the Salt Lake City paper:

http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,5143,695228342,00.html

If this is the incident you are referring to, it seems that McCain really had nothing to do with it, and it later turned out that the principals of the push polloing co. in Utah were Romney donors, which is really strange.

But if there is something else I want to know about it.

Thanx.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 3, 2008 6:08 PM | Report abuse

These are all over the place. But it's hard to ignore a few of the more notable minds picking Obama in a landslide. Even Chris Matthews has that result.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: parkerfl | January 3, 2008 6:06 PM | Report abuse

The media should stop making predictions. Biden had a good crowd last night and only one big camera was there. Lots of undecided voters were present.

Posted by: mg9425 | January 3, 2008 6:04 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 29%
Edwards: 25%
Clinton: 22%

Repubs:

Huckleberry: 30%
Romney: 28%
McCain: 20%

Storylines CNN and MSNBC: Obama's money, Oprah, organisation, and proximity to Iowa prevail. Edwards taps into lower- and middle-class resentment and strong union support. Clinton bombs and the boomer recriminations start about how she got disasterous advice and voters get wise to the undesirability of Bill in the WH again dispensing more than his alloted 8 years of presidential input.

Huckleberry's evangelical zealots takeover of GOP complete. Movement Conservatives consign GOP to minority status for over a generation due to their gift for alienating increasing numbers of non-white voters and inability to analyze a complex world properly.

What we will see on Fox: Fissures in GOP erupt as Wall Street Republicans square off with evangelicals during prime-time viewing. Call Huckleberry a hick. Dems doom America.

Posted by: jeromebelgium | January 3, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse

Mike, where do I read about the pushpolling against WMR?

I am going to google for it.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 3, 2008 5:58 PM | Report abuse

"First, I have a hard time seeing how Rudy Guiuliani fares after weeks of being written off. Could his skip-the-early-primaries strategy work? He's certainly not on the front of my mind..."

Rudy is done. He is Dick Cheaney on steroids. He is everything that is wrong with the gop. Some would consider him, himself a terrorist. Based on the definition of that word. He also has made money from terrorists, as well as spying on americans. He he makes money off terror and doing crime, is he then a terrorist and a criminal?

The more people realize yes and yes, the faster he drops. he woudl have zero chance in the general. You better off with romney or huck anyway. Altough I think neither can win the general unless going up agaisnt hillary

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 5:57 PM | Report abuse

It's all meaningless

Barack will Thump Everyone.

Maybe not meaningless for Fred Thompson. He is on life support anyway.

Hill will be in no matter what. Bill wants to live in the big white house again.

I don't think the Republican candidate is running yet. There will be a floor fight at the convention. Red neck conservative wins.

Chuck Hagel runs a third party campaign that sucks off the middle of the road repubs who can't pull the Democrat lever no way, no how.

Posted by: zippydw | January 3, 2008 5:54 PM | Report abuse

Iowa decides to 'Roll the Dice'

Obama 37%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 27%
Richardson 5%
Biden 2%

Posted by: chopperoni | January 3, 2008 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama 35
Edwards 30
Clinton 30

GOP
Huckabee 31
Romney 24
McCain 22

"Clinton finishes a disappointing third, McCain finishes a strong third"

Posted by: roxythedog | January 3, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama 31%
Edwards 26%
Clinton 24%

Rep
Romney 27%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 22%

McCain the main story on the republican side, whilst the Clinton campaign get panicky.


Can someone tell me (because I'm living in the UK and can pick up Fox and CNN only): do the american networks cover this wall to wall like they do for the actual election in November, or do they just cross over to Iowa from time to time?

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

2 things.

First, I have a hard time seeing how Rudy Guiuliani fares after weeks of being written off. Could his skip-the-early-primaries strategy work? He's certainly not on the front of my mind...

Second, this may be my personal opposition to John McCain (McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, push-pulling against Romney), but how can you spin a dismal 3rd (or 4th) place finish as a victory? Even if Huckabee takes 2nd, he's still the real came-from-nowhere story. Doesn't anyone remember 6 weeks ago when the Republican Party had finally "evolved" and forgotten about "traditional" issues like life, guns, and family?

I'd like to hear thoughts on either of these. As well as poor Fred Thompson.

Posted by: USMC_Mike | January 3, 2008 5:46 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Edwards: 34
Clinton: 29
Obama: 28

Republicans
Romney: 27
Huckabee: 25
McCain: 23

Posted by: jasonbakeresq | January 3, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

"Thoreau is often claimed as an inspiration by anarchists, as well. Though Civil Disobedience calls for improving rather than abolishing government -- "I ask for, not at once no government, but at once a better government"[2] -- the direction of this improvement aims at anarchism: "'That government is best which governs not at all;' and when men are prepared for it, that will be the kind of government which they will have.""

Are we ready for no government, paul supporters? I don't think so. Maybe one day, when our minds are right.

I agree with paul's dr's diagnosis. but not his perscriptions.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 5:43 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama: 37 percent
Clinton: 28 percent
Edwards: 26 percent

Republicans:

Romney: 33 percent
Huckabee: 32 percent
McCain: 20 percent

Storyline: First-time caucus-goers and independents propel Obama to Iowa victory. Despite Romney's finances and organization, he barely beats Huckabee. McCain's strong third-place showing insures a competitive three-way race heading into New Hampshire.

Candidates who will drop out within 24-hours of the caucus:

Joe Biden
Chris Dodd
Fred Thompson
Duncan Hunter

Posted by: txsig78 | January 3, 2008 5:38 PM | Report abuse

DEMOCRATS
Obama 27%
Edwards 20%
Biden 18%
Clinton 17%
Richardson 10%

Main story will be the rise of Joe Biden.

Analysis here:
http://www.theseventen.com/2008/01/iowa-predictions-d.html

REPUBLICANS
Romney 32%
Huckabee 24%
McCain 17%
Paul 11%
Thompson 8%

Main story will be Ron Paul placing ahead of Giuliani and Thompson.

Analysis here:
http://www.theseventen.com/2008/01/iowa-predictions-r.html

Posted by: theseventen | January 3, 2008 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Edwards 34%
Clinton 33%
Obama 33%

Republicans

Huckaby 28%
Romney 22%
McCain 17%
Paul 15%

Storyline
Edwards wins closely contested Dem Cacus; Huckaby overcomes gaffs to win the Republican Caucus; Paul's stronger than expected showing overshadow's McCain's stonger than expected showing; predicted surge of new caucus attendees fails to materialize

Posted by: allensrose | January 3, 2008 5:33 PM | Report abuse

My feel,

Obama ---- 42%

Edwards ---29%

Clinto ----28%

Huckabee ----32%

Romney ------31%

McCain ------23%

Posted by: juandgarza | January 3, 2008 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Nick Mockiavelli

Obama - 34
Clinton - 30
Edwards - 24

Huckabee - 29
Romney - 29
McCain - 18

It's a change election, so Sheryl Crow's "A Change Will Do You Good" blares in the caucus parties all night long. And the original Mavrick has a kick into NH.

Posted by: barnesseth | January 3, 2008 5:25 PM | Report abuse

These guys dare make a "PREDICTION":

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/iowa-caucus-2008-prediction-010308001.html

You can't really predict a contest this close. You can only make a guess, have a hunch or divine tea leaves.

The real winner is Obama, hands down. He was nowhere as late as July. Hillary has been running since forever. Edwards set up shop in Iowa four years ago.

Obama towers in comparison. He has already beat these two other dilettantes. Even if he comes third he has already proven how weak and unimpressive they really are. He is the natural heavyweight and has incredibly deep pockets (as in $100 million plus) to match Hillary's money express. He triples Edwards' on-hand cash to the tune of $36 million. For him to be neck and neck with these top contenders is something of a revelation.

Clinton and Edwards are looking amazed at history being made. Obama is looking from the gaudy heights his effort has produced. Already, he can only win.

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 3, 2008 5:22 PM | Report abuse

Insider Advantage poll out today ahows the second choice picks as split evenly three ways. They however weight their polls for age and gender, which means that Hillary is way ahead when they do the polls, but they weight the HLV responses of men and women equally for example eventhough 55% of men say they will come out and 70% of women say they will, they split it 50/50. Lets however just assume that for the top three anyways, its a three way split. I. A. doesn't ask about the other candidates.

Posted by: slbk | January 3, 2008 5:17 PM | Report abuse

"Who do you predict will WIN the Republican Iowa Caucus?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1430

.

Posted by: PollM | January 3, 2008 05:12 PM
"

Ron paul 58%?

thompson rudy and mccain 0?

with huck and mitt in the teens?

Wishful thinking. I like where your heart is though :)

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 5:14 PM | Report abuse

Wash Po Headline January 4, 2008:

"Hillary seals nomination with 3rd place finish!"

By Anne E. Kornblut

DES MOINES, IOWA- Hillary Clinton sealed the Dem nomination with a stunning 3rd place finish in Iowa.

"I did the democracy bit. I actually ran in an election, I talked with the little people in the lesser state of Iowa. Now its time to coronate a Queen!!" Hillary announced to her jubilant followers.

Edwards and Obama immediately conceded, noting that in a party that celebrates higher victimhood, Hillary was tops.

"Oppressed Female, betrayed spouse,ugly chubby senior citizen, and now 3rd place finisher.." Obama said shaking his head.

"She had it all."

Evil Republicans refused to concede the election, vowing to continue through Feb 5, 2008.

Posted by: JaxMax | January 3, 2008 5:13 PM | Report abuse

let me rephrase pink. If clinton does not win, would you support edwards or obama? BEcause their supporters probably will not support clinton? They both see her as the same as a republcian, minus her health care stance.

So if clinton supporters will support others, yet obama and edwards will not support clinton, what are we left with?

She needs to step down for the good of the nation, imo. She is playing the sabotuer role. Like difi rockafeller reid.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 5:12 PM | Report abuse

Who do you predict will WIN the Republican Iowa Caucus?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1430

.

Posted by: PollM | January 3, 2008 5:12 PM | Report abuse

"I can only say if Hillary does win it will be a miracle. With the Repub support for Obama it would be a miracle if he didn't win. I cannot rule out the Huckster getting a win either. I will be taking a few naps during the night, but hopefully no more than 30 or so minutes at a time.

Posted by: lylepink | January 3, 2008 05:02 PM
"

wow. At least you are now acknowledging reality. You've came a long way since I came to this site, haven't you pink? :)

From she is the nominee, no one else need apply. to, "I can only say if Hillary does win it will be a miracle."

Wow. A long way in a short time. Welcome to reality. We've missed ya buddy

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 5:04 PM | Report abuse

I'm waiting for the media to start collectively humping John McCain's leg. It is amazing how hungry they are for McCain to be the story, they're pre-empting it. He's a dinosaur. Let it go.

Posted by: txindep | January 3, 2008 5:03 PM | Report abuse

I can only say if Hillary does win it will be a miracle. With the Repub support for Obama it would be a miracle if he didn't win. I cannot rule out the Huckster getting a win either. I will be taking a few naps during the night, but hopefully no more than 30 or so minutes at a time.

Posted by: lylepink | January 3, 2008 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Edwards 32.3%
Obama 30.6%
Clinton 27.7%

Romney 33.1%
Huckabee 28.2%
McCain 24.7%

Posted by: rlampe | January 3, 2008 4:54 PM | Report abuse

optimyst,
What, no medians, max/min or standard deviations. Come on, if you are going to do stats, do the stats man!

Posted by: dave | January 3, 2008 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Oh, the Hillary loss storyline was already
planted with Kornblut on Decemeber 13, 2007 on page 1 of the Wash Po.

Hillary may be demonic, but she is not slothful.The spin of the loss started on December 13, 2007 in this very paper.

Posted by: JaxMax | January 3, 2008 4:47 PM | Report abuse

JaxMax declares at 4:42 PM EST January 3, 2008:

Obama 40%

Edwards 24%

Hillary
the evil 18%

Further fearless predictions- Hillary will have a 4 lamp meltdown.

Posted by: JaxMax | January 3, 2008 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Obama 32%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 25%

Story will be Clinton's 3rd place finish and how the nomination is up for grabs.

Posted by: christopher.raymond | January 3, 2008 4:43 PM | Report abuse

http://www.elephantbiz.com/2008/01/predictions.html

Democrats
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 34
Edwards: 25

Republicans
Huckabee: 32%
Romney: 30
Thompson: 16

Storyline: "Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee both ride outsider messages to narrow victories over the perceived establishment candidate. Fred Thompson's better than expected 3rd place finish breathes new life into his campaign. Rudy Giuliani finishes behind Ron Paul. Republican race remains wide open."

JX
elephantbiz.com

Posted by: jx | January 3, 2008 4:43 PM | Report abuse

"If she ran as a republican , in this feild, she would win by far.
"

the gop nom that is.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 4:40 PM | Report abuse

wHAT DOES IT TELL ANY INDEPENDANT THINKERS HERE, that most republcains on this site are predicting a hillary win tonight? Wishful thinking?

Pink or clinton supporters? Why does the gop that hates clinton want her to win? Why are they trashing edwards and obama. The reason is obvious. She cannot win. Clinton is the gop's only hope. Without clinton the gop is done. She's all they got left. If she ran as a republican , in this feild, she would win by far.

Not going to happen. The gop is not going to select the opposition candidate again. Not this time. She had a good run. Let her be a major player in the senate and take difi/reid/lieberman's sell-out moderate role. Selling out to the gop.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 4:39 PM | Report abuse

R:
Romney 32
Huckabee 30
Thompson 15

D:
Obama 37
Edwards 32
Clinton 29

Story:
D/Bill Clinton takes over Hillary campaign
R/Limbaugh fans keep Fred in the race

Posted by: brumby | January 3, 2008 4:32 PM | Report abuse

My predictions for tonight's Rumble in the Cornbelt! Has anyone even factored in who would be second choices for Democrats because that could be key

Dems:
Obama 38%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 25%

Repub:
Huckabee 34%
Romney: 29%
McCain: 21%

Storyline: Home is where the Heart is as dems and repubs go with their heart and dems send the first African American man on his way to the nomination. New Hampshire will be the Clinton's Little Big Horn as she makes what many will call her last stand.
For the Republicans it will be the Evangelicals still showing that they have the muscle to get thier candidate through so do not count them out of the Republican nomination. McCain will get a huge boost of Lazarus proportion and come back from the political dead and score huge in NH. But will the huckmeister strike back in SC. Have the evangelicals found thier man? To be continued! Yeah I know its long but its great stuff!

Posted by: hoss516 | January 3, 2008 4:29 PM | Report abuse

Edwards 32%
Clinton 30%
Obama 27%

Huckabee 34%
Romney 28%
McCain 17%

"Obama surge fizzles; Romney can't buy Iowa"

Posted by: eatbees | January 3, 2008 4:29 PM | Report abuse

I regretably agree that Obama will surely not break age, gender, or any other records tonight.

Posted by: USMC_Mike | January 3, 2008 4:24 PM | Report abuse

My prediction:

Democrats:
Obama 32
Clinton 30
Edwards 27

Republicans:
Huckabee 33
Romney 31
McCain 23

Clinton and Romney edged out of top spot in IA primary. McCain's finish will spring him to NH win.

Posted by: roedel74 | January 3, 2008 4:21 PM | Report abuse

Based on signs in front of people's home in Ames, IA (hey, it may not be as scientific as a phone poll but it the best I can do at this late hour in the race).

D
Obama
Hillary
Edwards
Dodd

Obama appeared to have more signs, but Hillary's were much larger. If we are including size of the signs

Hillary
Obama
Edwards/Dodd

I didn't see any Biden signs during lunch, but I did see one big Dodd sign.

R
Rommey
Huckabee
Thompson (its one of my neighbors I see it everyday as I drive into work)
McCain

If size matters both Rommey and Huckabee tie

Biggest signs were for Hillary and Huckabee


I hope this clarifies the caucus vote.

Posted by: sltiowa | January 3, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

Obama 36%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 21%

Republicans:

Huckabee 35%
Romney 27%
McCain 21%

Storyline(s): (1) Clinton's surprisingly poor finish (abetted by Biden's near double digit performance), due to lack of second choice support--with already high negatives evident, can she afford to sic Camp Clinton's attack dogs on Obama in NH? (2) McCain's strong showing and GOPers ultimate reticence to support a Mormon, despite Huckabee's recent missteps.

Posted by: mattwollmers | January 3, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

My predictions
Hillary 38
Obama 26
Edwards 18
Richardson 11
Biden 6
Dodd 1

Republicans
Huckabee27
Romney 24
McCain 22
Thompson 11
Paul 10
Giuliani 5
Hunter 1

Posted by: irvoice | January 3, 2008 4:09 PM | Report abuse

btw American Research group shows Clinton with a 9% lead today, for a poll taken only yesterday not a rolling poll. Yes the Zogby poll shows Obama in the lead, but its not undisputed.

Posted by: slbk | January 3, 2008 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama 32%
Clinton 29
Edwards 27%

Unanswered questions remains.

Rep:

Huckabee 31%
Romney 28%
McCain 16%

McCain wins Iowa!

:)

Posted by: LadyEagle | January 3, 2008 4:06 PM | Report abuse

Vote

Who do you predict will WIN the Democratic Iowa Caucus?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1429

.

Posted by: PollM | January 3, 2008 4:06 PM | Report abuse

Chemtrails. Chemtrails. Chemtrails. Black helicopters, Knocks on my door. 9/11 was staged by the goverment. The new age consumer. Rise of China. Clinton body count. The fake federal reserve. 100 barrels of gas. Ron Paul. Impeach Bush and tricky dick. Clinton is an alien. Royal family all look the same. Stupid bloggers.

Posted by: nateh26 | January 3, 2008 4:05 PM | Report abuse

DEMS
Clinton - 30.6%
Obama - 30.3%
Edwards - 27%
(Biden - 8%)

REPS
Romney - 34%
Huckabee - 24%
McCain - 16%
(Thompson - 11%)

Storyline: Huckabee's unlikely rise leads to a just-as-surprising fall; Romney solidified as the front-runner, but with a suddenly resurgent McCain at his tail. Dems race tighter than ever, with all eyes on NH.

Posted by: anothstine | January 3, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama over the pro-war Hitlery, Edwards in there somewhere swearing to raise taxes on the middle class and push for increased trial lawyer salaries. Biden's mouth in 5th, Biden in 6th.

Repubs:

Huck wins, Romney shows that money can't buy you love, Paul in 3rd, Guiliani in 10th place after somehow losing to a couple write-in candidates.

Storyline:

The frigid temperatures actually kill off most of Hitlery's old voting bloc on the way to the polls.

Posted by: millionea7 | January 3, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

I have volunteered for candidates at delegate selection meetings before. During the actual time when they could come down and vote, I have phoned many people to see if they were coming, who assured me they were, some of whom were listed as delegates themselves, who did not come, even to vote for themselves. These are in DSM's where one vote can send an extra delegate for a candidate and whole families who were coming and swore to support a candidate and even wanted to go to convention didn't show. That's just to mark an X, not to spend two hours at a meeting. There is No Way that Obama will break every record for independent, male, republican and youth turnout no matter what people say on the phone.

Now if I had 5000 cars and drivers to send out for people who said they were coming, I'm sure that I could get most of them in the car.

I stand by my previous prediction, Clinton 1st by 8-10%, Edwards 2nd, Obama 3rd by 5%. Romney 1st by 5%, Huckabee 2nd, McCain 3rd.

It all comes down to GOTV organizing.

Posted by: slbk | January 3, 2008 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Clinton - 33%
Edwards - 29%
Obama - 27%

Republicans:
Romney - 36%
Huckabee- 28%
McCain - 18%

Storyline: Organization is still key to victories in Iowa... McCain has the MO & Obama didn't get past GO.

Posted by: bcurtis | January 3, 2008 3:59 PM | Report abuse

9/11 was an inside job. 9/11 was an inside job. 9/11 was an inside job.

Posted by: nateh26 | January 3, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

I am the author of RABID: Republicans Against Bush Idealogical Diatribe. The pulse of the nation concludes that, in the end, the American people want to hold someone accountable for the disastrous Iraq war as well as the criminal actions undertaken by the Bush administration. The only candidate who may do that would be Ron Paul. Though he won't likely win Iowa or New Hampshire, he will finally get the recognition he deserves and the media will be forced to recognize him after his 4th place finish in Iowa. Fox news will no longer be recognized as a legitimate news source. Finally, the American people will have justice upon electing Mr. Paul as the president as he will do away with all that we see as unfair, and particularly, criminal The George W. Bush voodoo doll is working well and, believe it or not, Mr. Bush will find himself where he belongs, in prison with the rest of the scum of the Earth!

Posted by: stanford.stefan | January 3, 2008 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Republican
Huckabee 34
Romney 32
McCain 17

Democrat
Clinton 31
Obama 28
Edwards 26

And I have to borrow (or echo?) this prediction because it sounds right on: "The women will come out and vote and Huckabee will hold his Conservative team."

Posted by: racimperman | January 3, 2008 3:57 PM | Report abuse

I've changed my predictions about five times today, so here's what I'm saying now. It's subject to change:

DEM:
1. Obama (by 3 percent)
2. Edwards
3. Clinton (almost a tie with Edwards)
4. Biden

GOP:
1. Romney (by 2 percent)
2. Huckabee
3. McCain (strong third)
4. Paul (strong fourth)

Story lines: Although Romney won, he should have done better with all that he spent. Near-victories for Huckabee and Edwards, but this may be the high point of their campaigns. McCain, while not the new front-runner, is close to it. Clinton's campaign is struggling, but the loss will only cripple her, it won't stop her. Despite Paul's surprising support, he has nowhere to go.

Posted by: erichsen | January 3, 2008 3:56 PM | Report abuse

Wag this blog!

Okay, so far 81 fixates have made a numerical prediction on the Dem side. Let someone who cares analyze the republicans. Since CC is merely the collective manifestation of this group, here are his (your) predictions as of 3:46. Drumroll, please:

Obama 32.28
Edwards 28.44
Clinton 28.20

Posted by: optimyst | January 3, 2008 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Dem.
1. Clinton 32%
2. Obama 31%
3. Edwards 27%

Rep.
1. Huckabee 33%
2. Romney 29%
3. Thompson 18%

Dem: "Hillary holds off Obama, will attempt to seal nomination in NH"

Rep: "Romney, McCain head to NH for elimination battle"

Posted by: spiffydo12 | January 3, 2008 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, bsimon. I think this is one heckuva lot of power to abandon to the IA caucus goers. Imagine an R debate without McC and RG. Imagine a D debate without JB and CD.

The format looks good, and probably does require no more than 4 to be workable.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 3, 2008 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Vote

Who do you predict will will the Democratic Iowa Caucus?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1429

.

Posted by: PollM | January 3, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 34
Edwards 28
Clinton 27

Repubs:
Huckabee 34
Romney 29
McCain 15

Stories: Clinton has to invoke 88, when Dukakis and Bush came in 3rd but won nominations. Huckabee's story competes with McCain's and questions about a Romney staff shakeup.

Remainders: Paul beats Giuliani; Thompson out; Dodd out; Richardson starts getting asked more about February 8 than February 5.

Posted by: LACinDC | January 3, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Edwards: 32
Obama: 30
Clinton: 29

Romney: 33
Huckabee: 29
McCain: 20

Posted by: piotr | January 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

1-Obama 33
2-Edwards 30
3-Clinton 30

Republicans
1-Romney 36
2-Huckabee 30
3. McCain 26

Storylines-

Obama will surge into NH where he is likely to meet the Clinton machine. His momentum will make NH an effective draw. Edwards will stay strong enough to fight to South Carolina.

McCain's third place finish will slingshot him to a win in NH.

Look for the primaries on both sides to go to at least Feb. 5 before they are effectively decided.

Posted by: jamesbedell | January 3, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

This is not what I "want" to happen, but it's my best guess.

Democrats:
Edwards: 34%
Clinton: 31%
Obama: 25%

Republicans:
Huckabee: 32%
Romney:23%
Paul: 23%
McCain: 22%

Posted by: mlynum | January 3, 2008 3:46 PM | Report abuse

1. Clinton

2. Obama

3. Edwards

Story line - Edwards drops out of race, goes back to ambulance chasing and determines to pocket 40% of campaign contributions as his cut in the fight against corporate greed.

Posted by: justj | January 3, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Why have all the professional pundits fogotten about Fred Thompson and Ron Paul? They will both finish ahead of McCain.

Here are my predictions:

Dems:

Obama 32%
Edwards 26%
Clinton 25%

GOP:

Huckabee 31%
Romney 27%
Thompson 13%
Paul 12%
McCain 10%

http://commenterry.blogs.com


Posted by: terrymitchell | January 3, 2008 3:44 PM | Report abuse

Dems

Edwards - 28%
Obama - 26%
Clinton - 21%

Rep

Huckabee - 35%
Romney - 33%
Thompson - 15%

Story: National frontrunners all summer and fall Guliani and Clinton are finished - American's looking for a new direction

Crazy side prediction: Joe Biden pulls 10-15%, gets some ink and some mo, and finishes 2nd in New Hampshire, picks up more mo and money when Clinton finishes 3rd again there, and Joe Biden becomes the nominee and President

That's what I got!


Posted by: geor0113 | January 3, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

Chris, are you giddy like a schoolgirl at the thoughts of the outcome of tonight?

I am.

Politics are seriously awesome.

Posted by: thecrisis | January 3, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

mark in austin: Howard Kurtz looks at the ABC debates...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/30/AR2007123002602.html

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

"I had not realized the NH Debate formats call for "4". Is this on both sides?"

Affirmitive. Sit-down 'chat' format, moderated by, I believe, Charlie Gibson.

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 3:38 PM | Report abuse

Obama 33%
Edwards 31%
Clinton 28%

Romney 28%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 17%

Edwards remains viable and gets a fresh look in NH. McCain gets a lift and nails a win in NH. Romney peaked given all the money he spent and where it got him. Within a few days the media will look at the new coalition Obama puts together that pulls independents, young voters and new participants into his tent. The numbers will show there is ALOT of enthusiasm for D's vs R's.

Julie

Posted by: julie1919julie | January 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

For what it's worth, I heard on the radio last night that Fred Thompson was intentionally *raising* the bar for Iowa, knowing he'll not do well and giving him an excuse to drop out.

Sounds reasonable to me.

Posted by: JD | January 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Report abuse

The comments of everyone show how important "expectations" are to us junkies.

In fact, IA has fewer Convention votes than metro Houston, or metro DFW.

And I do not believe for a minute that if TX were the first caucus state the outcome[s] would be the same as for IA, but I have no way of knowing that. Count this screed as unsubstantiated griping.

I had not realized the NH Debate formats call for "4". Is this on both sides?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

Aaron predicts:

Obama: 39
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 22

Huckabee: 33
Romney: 32
McCain: 19

Story: New caucus-goers and second-tier supporters back Obama. Should Edwards drop-out and back Obama? McCain surges into New Hampshire with Thompson considering McCain endorsement.

Posted by: hal24 | January 3, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 38%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 30%

Republicans:
Huckabee 34%
Romney 31%
McCain 18%

Big Story: Clinton's campaign, plagued by finger-poiniting and second-guessing, basically implodes on their way to another loss in New Hampshire

Posted by: pslagle | January 3, 2008 3:23 PM | Report abuse

This is wishful thinking as much as Iowa pulse-taking:

Dems
Edwards 37
Obama 30
Clinton 26

GOP
Huckabee 34
Romney 31
McCain 25

Story line: Edwards, Huckabee and McCain have big Mo. Clinton, Romney in trouble.

Posted by: zinger1 | January 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

Mike:

Best...post...ever

and not just cause you were nice to me!

JD

Posted by: JD | January 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

'no one is quite as vile as claudia, her paranoid, angry, feminist self ever willing to embarrass and out-venom her opposition. Her question dodging and demonizing comes straight out of the Clinton play-book. '

my, my, mike, quite an outburst. forget your meds today? clinton derangement syndrome got you down?

Posted by: drindl | January 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

"Also, how about California dividing it's votes from a winner take all to a district by district vote?

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | January 3, 2008 03:05 PM
"

The gop has to do something to steal votes. They're going for the big states. First texas and now cali. They got to do soemthing. I the will of the people is done the gop will be irrlevant for a generation. hey can supress votes only so long. they can send elections to the courts only so many times.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Predictions:
Republican
Huckabee 34
Romney 29
McCain 14

Democrat
Obama 36
Clinton 32
Edwards 28

McCain "wins" with the least amount spent per vote but can he maintain momentum beyond NH with federaly funding caps? Clinton is wounded, but just how wounded? "Only time will tell."

Posted by: jeffersonbaaron | January 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 30
Edwards 26
Obama 25

Romney 32
Huckabee 24
McCain 20

Storyline: Age and experience trumps youth and enthusiasm every time.

Posted by: pjd56 | January 3, 2008 3:13 PM | Report abuse

wow.

"Rousseau claimed that the state of nature was a primitive condition without law or morality, which human beings left for the benefits and necessity of cooperation. As society developed, division of labour and private property required the human race to adopt institutions of law. In the degenerate phase of society, man is prone to be in frequent competition with his fellow men while at the same time becoming increasingly dependent on them. This double pressure threatens both his survival and his freedom. According to Rousseau, by joining together through the social contract and abandoning their claims of natural right, individuals can both preserve themselves and remain free. This is because submission to the authority of the general will of the people as a whole guarantees individuals against being subordinated to the wills of others and also ensures that they obey themselves because they are, collectively, the authors of the law."

r

u

f

u

s

(Sorry. I have to write more after pasting or the site won't take it)

That tricky cc/zouk.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 35
Edwards: 32
Clinton: 28

Independents will put Obama over the edge. Edwards will continue on but tank in NH, dropping out before SC and endorsing Obama, which will provide him with the momentum to easily best Clinton in SC. CLinton will not give up, and capture many states on Tsunami Tuesday, but Obama will narrowly take the nomination.

Repubs:

Romney: 33
Huckabee: 31
Thompson: 20
McCain: 15

Contrary to CW, Thompson will finish 3rd, but pull out after a dismal finish in NH. Romney will hold off McCain narrowly in NH, but McCain will surprise in other states and eventually become the nominee after a tough battle with Romney.

General: Obama will pick Evan Bayh as a running mate. McCain will pick Thompson.

Obama-Bayh will narrowly beat McCain-Thompson, with Ohio putting him over the edge.

Posted by: billbolducinmaine | January 3, 2008 3:10 PM | Report abuse

"JK, wow the 49ers are good! 1st year ever: a team wins the Superbowl that wasn't in the playoffs!

Also, how about California dividing it's votes from a winner take all to a district by district vote?

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | January 3, 2008 03:05 PM
"

An on going joke. Just because we want something to happen, doesn't make it likely. Do not let your personal opinions get in the way of your blogging or pinditry. What is a blogger/newsperson with zero crediblity? A propogandist?

I may want the niners to win the superbowl, yet it is impossible, wouldn't you say? Much of what is said here is wishfull propoganda. Nothing more.

With that being said. those that are correct more often than not, like me, should get all the credbility. those that are NEVER correct should lose all credbility. Understand? How is fox and the right-wing attack dogs still on the air?

"The sky is red"

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 3:08 PM | Report abuse

Edwards 28
Clinton 27
Obama 26

Huckabee 32
Romney 29
McCain 18

Biggest story, of course: Whoever gets more votes than any opponent is the WINNER and nominee-presumptive in ALL press reports, at least until next Tuesday. All others, by default, are LOSERS who are too stupid to quit. (Doesn't matter that the margin may be only a few dozen votes.)
After all, it's only the horse race that matters, right?

Posted by: jobie | January 3, 2008 3:08 PM | Report abuse

Storyline: Obama wins by 8, Clinton limps home 3rd, LylePink needs antidepressants!

Republicans: McCain surprise surge lets Huckabee slip by Romney in a squeaker. Romney sues for refund of advertising $$$ spent in Iowa. Claims defective product! TV stations hire Chuck Norris to defend.

Paulites form third party, with HQ in Waco, TX, then decide to (and are welcomed to) secede from Union and are never heard from again.

Posted by: optimyst | January 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Report abuse

""Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains. One man thinks himself the master of others, but remains more of a slave than they." Rousseau"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Jacques_Rousseau

r

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

JK, wow the 49ers are good! 1st year ever: a team wins the Superbowl that wasn't in the playoffs!

Also, how about California dividing it's votes from a winner take all to a district by district vote?

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | January 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

USMC_Mike-

well played.

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Rs

Huckabee -- 28 percent
Romney -- 24 percent
McCain -- 20 percent

Headline: Evangelics come out in force and McCain pulls out third place "win." E-harmony compatibility profile says a Huckabee--McCain future is in the air.

Ds

Obama -- 31 percent
Edwards - 30 percent
Clinton - 26 percent

Headline: Edwards "victory" stuns Clinton. No mention of Obama, but the rest of the world takes note.

Posted by: duane_wright48 | January 3, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

I predict

Obama 33%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 28%

Romney 33%
Huckabee 28%
McCain 22%
Paul 10%

Storylines: Obama and Clinton battle on, its effectively the end of Edwards.

Has Huckabee peaked already? Is McCain the only one who can stop Romney?

Posted by: andrewwright154 | January 3, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

miata7 writes
"there is a growing number of supporters who are telling Hillary that it is better for her to drop out earlier than later."

interesting allegation. Where do you hear such things?

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Obama 32
Clinton 31
Edwards 30

Romney 26
McCain 25
Huckabee 23

Story: Media try something new; let the numbers speak for themselves! (hey, a guy can dream can't he???)

Posted by: 33rdStreet | January 3, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

"His subsequent Discourse on Inequality tracked the progress and degeneration of mankind from a primitive state of nature to modern society. He suggested that the earliest human beings were solitary and differentiated from animals by their capacity for free will and their perfectibility. He also argued that these primitive humans were possessed of a basic drive to care for themselves and a natural disposition to compassion or pity. As humans were forced to associate together more closely by the pressure of population growth, they underwent a psychological transformation and came to value the good opinion of others as an essential component of their own well-being. Rousseau associated this new self-awareness with a golden age of human flourishing. However, the development of agriculture, metallurgy, private property, and the division of labor led to humans becoming increasingly dependent on one another, and led to inequality. The resulting state of conflict led Rousseau to suggest that the first state was invented as a kind of social contract made at the suggestion of the rich and powerful. This original contract was deeply flawed as the wealthiest and most powerful members of society tricked the general population, and thus instituted inequality as a fundamental feature of human society. Rousseau's own conception of the social contract can be understood as an alternative to this fraudulent form of association. At the end of the Discourse on Inequality, Rousseau explains how the desire to have value in the eyes of others, which originated in the golden age, comes to undermine personal integrity and authenticity in a society marked by interdependence, hierarchy, and inequality.

"

r

u

f

u

s

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Obama 32%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 29%

Huckabee 32%
Romney 31%
McCain 26%

Storyline: The young and the evangelical brave the cold to bring wins to their candidates.

Prediction: By January 9th we'll be down to 11 candidates as NH grinds the minors into the dust of history... but on Super Tuesday there will still be at least 6, possibly 7, still in the running.

Posted by: burkemic99 | January 3, 2008 3:01 PM | Report abuse

1. claudialong 58%
2. loudoun 33%
3. rufus 9%

While loudoun is quick with the jabs, no one is quite as vile as claudia, her paranoid, angry, feminist self ever willing to embarrass and out-venom her opposition. Her question dodging and demonizing comes straight out of the Clinton play-book. Even though our outspoken Rufus is but a fraction, he too continually displays uncomparable dillusion and misguidedness.


1. mark 45%
2. JD 38%
3. vbhoomes 17%

Everyone knows the libertarian with a solid understanding of economics can win a battle of words with any Fixian, but none are quite as professional, humble, and, I dare say, likable, as our resident Longhorn/litigator. Vbhoomes is a strong 3rd, his wit and logic seemingly unending.

Posted by: USMC_Mike | January 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Hillary's people are running scenarios in which she loses New Hampshire after a third place finish in Iowa -- they just don't know what to do, and they realize their high negatives limit her options and her available avenues

there is a growing number of supporters who are telling Hillary that it is better for her to drop out earlier than later.

the party needs time to rethink and regroup and figure out what it wants to do without Hillary and she should leave the field earlier to allow that process to bring a strong candidate instead of a weakened party marked by infighting and disappointment.

Posted by: Miata7 | January 3, 2008 2:57 PM | Report abuse

The 49ers are going to win the superbowl this year. :)

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 2:55 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Clinton - 30
Obama - 29
Richardson - 19

Republicans
Romney - 28
Huckabee - 26
Thompson - 18

Posted by: mlud | January 3, 2008 2:53 PM | Report abuse

"Dems/AKA Hate America Crowd:
Obama 28
Edwards 25
Biden 23
Clinton 20

Reps/AKA Love of Country Crowd:
Romney 32
Hickabee 27
Thompson 18
Paul 15
McCain 10

Posted by: vbhoomes | January 3, 2008 02:25 PM
"

We''l sse who loves america after thsi election and who does not. This is still america right? Where americans vote?

Americans/democrats/liberals don't hate ourselves. We hate teh current gop fascists and their monarchy. you've seen the progressives mobilize the last half decade in defense of this great nation, as the gop sabotaged and tried to destroy it. Where would we be without the lib conscience?

Free elections. Remember that concept gop? you've tried to stear us away from that, taking the power from the people and putting it with whoever can cheat without getting caught. Or he how has the most judges in his pocket.

Not this time. This time the american people will elect the next president. And we will see how really loves this country. And those taht only care about themselves and dollar signs.

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

Obama 37
Clinton 29
Edwards 21

Romney 31
Huckabee 29
Paul 14
McCain 13

Storyline: Obama rolls, Romney survives, Who is Ron Paul?

Posted by: Jeremy_Haber | January 3, 2008 2:48 PM | Report abuse

Here are my predictions:

For the Democrats:
Obama - 37%
Edwards - 32%
Clinton - 30%

On the Republican side:
Huckabee - 30%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 15%

The dominant storyline will be how the national favorites (Clinton and Giuliani, and to a lesser extent Romney) were upset by political upstarts.

Posted by: goggin | January 3, 2008 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Dems:
Obama 33
Edwards 28
Hillary 27
Biden 6
Richardson 4

Headline: Obama has forged a new coalition -- Boomers are out, and so is Hillary. She will continue to compete, but if Obama wins NH, she will likely have to make a stand somewhere in the South, like her hubby in did in 92. Edwards, while garnering a strong 2nd, has lived in Iowa for too long to not win. He will wait for New Hampshire, but the writing is on the wall. Angry populists have never won the presidency and won't until we hit an economic low like the early 30s.

Republicans:
Huckabee 34
Romney 32
McCain 13
Ron Paul 11
Giuliani 5
Thompson 4

Huckabee wins with the Evangelicals, McCain is re-launching, will win NH. But McCain will inevitably lose in a nativist contest- starting with SC. Romney will try to restart, but the Republicans may have a tight race that comes down to their convention.

Posted by: jessewald | January 3, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama: 36%
Edwards: 22%
Clinton: 19%
Dodd: 14%

GOP:

Romney: 27%
Huckabee:27%
McCain: 23%
Paul: 14%

Storyline: Obama jumps to double-digit lead in NH as soft Edwards supporters jump ship. Biden drops out and endorses Obama.

McCain surges to a similar NH lead, but Huckabee catches fire in Florida and South Carolina, threatening Giuliani and dooming Thompson.

Posted by: hcase | January 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Des Moines, IA
I just came back from lunch. As I got to the top of the escalator for one of the food courts in downtown Des Moines, Obama was having an impromptu meeting. Judging by the enthusiasm of his supporters and how excited everyone was to meet him, (myself included) and how I heard a large percentage of the people in the food court saying they were going to caucus for him tonight I now predict that Obama will win with 34%, Edwards 30%, and Clinton 25%. One of the local news guys was also in the skywalk system and he had a laptop with the latest poll from the local CBS news affiliate. That poll shows Obama and Edwards tied at 29% and Clinton at 27%.
As for the Repubs - who cares?

Posted by: Iowahoosier | January 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Ds:
Obama 34
Clinton 31
Edwards 28

Higher than avg turnout. Enough 2nd choicers like Obama and want the race to continue.

Rs:
Romney 27
Huckabee 24
McCain 19

Low turnout favors Romney machine. Huckabee's mistakes hurt.

And given how close the top 2 in each race are in NH, I think Obama and Romney get the bumps they need to win NH and run the table.

Posted by: stpaulsage | January 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Report abuse

I've been saying for a year now that Obama would win Iowa and that would springboard him to the nomination. I told CZ to put Obama up higher in his line. I am the man!

Predictions for tonight:

Obama 35%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 23%
Biden 9%


Huckabee 36%
Romney 28%
McCain 18%

Posted by: GoHuskies2004 | January 3, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Tomorrow, several folks here are going to draw a bulls-eye around the hole they just shot in the broad side of the barn, and then say, "See? I nailed it dead-center!"

My predictions? Wait a second, I have to throw my chicken bones...

Posted by: malis | January 3, 2008 2:37 PM | Report abuse

Turnout of 180,000
Democrats
Barack Obama 33%
John Edwards 27%
Hillary Clinton 25%
Democrats and independents pick change over experience with record turnout
Republicans
Turnout of 70,000
Mike Huckabee 29%
Mitt Romney 26%
John MCain 17%
Ron Paul 10%
Fred Thompson 8%

Mcain has revived his campaign with a strong third place finish. Romney couldn't bought his way out of Iowa. Ron Paul surprises with a 4th place finish

Posted by: jr1886 | January 3, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Repubs:
Romney 32
Huckabee 28
McCain 14
Paul 9

Dems:
Clinton 32
Edwards 30
Obama 28

Story Line: It's all about organization. Romney and Clinton had it, Huckabee and Obama did not.
Sub Story Line: Paul has some momentum going into NH, home of the 'Free State Project'

Posted by: ryan.crowley | January 3, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Obama 36
Clinton 32
Edwards 26

Romney 38
Huckabee 32
McCain 18

Storyline: Obama's win vaults him to frontrunner status. With McCain's comeback, NH is now "do-or-die" for both he and Clinton.

Posted by: DPeyton | January 3, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Ds --
Edwards 30%
Obama 28%
Clinton 26%

Edwards' '04 experience pays off in Iowa

Rs --
Huckabee 32%
Romney 31%
McCain 21%

Huckabee survives Romney comeback, McCain surges into NH

Posted by: acasilaco | January 3, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse

My predictions:

Democrats:
Obama - 38%
Edwards - 32%
Clinton - 29%

Republicans:
Romney - 36%
Huckabee - 32%
McCain - 28%

Headlines - Youth Arrive in Force to Declare Obama is the One They Want

Posted by: dnbraggs | January 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Edwards 28%
Obama 27%
Biden 21%
Clinton 19%

Headline: Independents propel Biden and is the real winner going forward. Clinton vote reduced and divides between Obama and Edwards.

Republicans:
Romney 32%
Huckabee 29%
McCain 24%

Headline: McCain propels forward with better than expected.

Posted by: gthomas1 | January 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

In a year where every college football team has now been defeated, just last night WV upset the mighty OU Sooners & we have a 2 loss team playing for the Ntl. championship. Expect anything, right? Not so fast. Money & organization now plays a key role now that voting has began. Granted messege plays a large part as well. Now, prediction time:

Republicans:
1. Romney- 34%
2. Huckabee- 28%
3. McCain- 16%

Democrats:
1. Clinton- 31%
2. Edwards-30%
3. Obama-27%

Republican Headlines: Romney proves negative attacks work as he wins a must, but McCain surges strong for New Hampshire.

Democratic Predictions: The aura of invincibility is back in the Clinton camp, she's the de facto nominee!

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | January 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

Dem
Obama 30
Edwards 27
Clinton 25

Rep
Huckabee 30
Romney 28
Paul 12

Storyline: The dem-race is now open between Obama and Clinton, Huckabees strategy worked, Paul is the big surprise

Posted by: klas | January 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Report abuse

GOP
Huckabee-34%
Romney- 33%
McCain- 20%
Paul- 8%
Some guy named Giuliani- 7%

Storyline- A big picture of McCain at his rally and the quote "Hey, Ron Paul is 72!"

Dems
Obama -34%
Clinton -33%
Edwards -25%

Storyline- Bill voted for Obama before voting against him.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | January 3, 2008 2:28 PM | Report abuse

I'm not sure I agree with those who expect Clinton to win on the basis of "organization." Obama has spent more money and has a bigger organization, enough that his supporters have no excuses to not turn up. They followed up every single committed supporter in the last couple of days and are reporting a very low "flake rate." Tonight will be a nice night by IA standards and I doubt Iowans will care much about Kansas-VT in the Orange bowl.

Posted by: Nissl | January 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

Chris,

C'mon. Show some balls here. Let's see YOUR predictions. I mean, here you are booing these political operatives who won't put their names on a prediction. You're a sharp enough guy. A former pollster, a political reporter for the WP. Your opinion is worth as much as anyone else's.

Posted by: JacksonLanders | January 3, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

My (somewhat contrarian) predictions:

*Young and first-time caucus goers don't show up as much as predicted, leading to narrow Clinton win

*The religious fascists of the Rep base ignore the party elites and turnout for Huckabee

*McCain will come in third, but barely beating Paul and Thompson, blunting his "surge" and leaving the Reps in disarray

Results:

Clinton 31%
Edwards 28%
Obama 27%

Huckabee 34%
Romney 28%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%
Thompson 10%

Posted by: uckeleg | January 3, 2008 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Dems/AKA Hate America Crowd:
Obama 28
Edwards 25
Biden 23
Clinton 20

Reps/AKA Love of Country Crowd:
Romney 32
Hickabee 27
Thompson 18
Paul 15
McCain 10


Posted by: vbhoomes | January 3, 2008 2:25 PM | Report abuse

32 Obama
31 Clinton
30 Edwards
05 Biden

28 Romney
26 Huckabee
22 McCain
13 Paul
04 Thompson
04 Giuliani

Storyline: Exhilarated Democrats can't pick a favorite from a menu of appealing options while demoralized Republicans can't agree on the least unappealing loser. It will be a protracted nominating contest before Hillary is ultimately selected as the Democratic nominee. I honestly have no clue which horse the Republicans will end up riding to the glue factory in 2008.

Posted by: ThinkerInRichmond | January 3, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Here is a tally of the 52 predictions in this thread (including the ones in CC's entry) up to 2:10.

Winners (times predicted)
Obama 26
Clinton 14
Edwards 12

Romney 27
Huckabee 25

The predictions for the winners in the Dem and Rep lists are correlated. Those predicting an Obama win were more likely to predict a Hucabee win. Those predicting Clinton or Edwards were more likely to predict a Romney win.

Posted by: urban4 | January 3, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

'Republo'...

Huck: 27
Rom: 25
McC: 19
Paul: 10
Guil: 8
Thomp: 4


Story: Hucks victory can barely be heard because the libertarians cry so loudly. Romney buys new mirror and changes his choice of hairgel, convinces self that Star Trek is cool and spends millions trying to become the next Shatner, ultimately failing yet again to a finally resurgent Thompson. McCain buys a gun and shoots it in the air, immigrants run while at the same time McCain finds himself accidentally married to some random Iraqi girl.

...'crat'
Obam: 36
Edw: 30
Clint: 28
Bid: 3
Rich: 3
no one else is viable.

Story: Upset over loss, Hillary dumps Bill and asks Romney if he knows someone who will marry her to Obama as his second wife. Edwards, upset at his second place finish, ego and thus head explode, covering the whole Earth with the slime of his narcissism (Guiliani joins sometime later). Elizabeth 'surprisingly' survives cancer, and becomes Obama's third wife.

Romney realizing that his religion can coexist with the presidency so long as he changes his position on gay marriage only one more time, does so and becomes Obama's first husband. Convinces Obama to update the White House china with some fancy gold plates while moving the capitol from from DC to Missouri, right across from Lambert's "Home of the Throwed Rolls".

Posted by: muaddib_7 | January 3, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Obama 32
Edwards 29
Clinton 28

Romney 33
Huckabee 31
McCain 18

Storyline: Thompson awakens just long enough to bow out; says he can't really remember entering the race.

Posted by: zan2468 | January 3, 2008 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Percentages would be a joke for me, but on the Dem side, I'm guessing it will be terribly close. Unfortunately, no one in the media will care.

Dems:

Edwards
Clinton
Obama

Reps:

Romney
Huckabee
McCain
(with Paul a surprising fourth)

Posted by: rpy1 | January 3, 2008 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Dave's predictions:

1.Obama 30%
1.Edwards 30%
1.Clinton 30%

1.Romney 33%
2.Huckabee 29%
3.McCain 14%
3.Paul 14%

Iowa Dems can't decide if they are progressives, populists or triangulators so they split the difference with everyone coming out happy and energized except Edwards who litigates a recount.

The Romney machine works better in the Iowa caucus format than the Huckabee High Road Sorta strategy. Ron Paul and John McCain live to die another day.

Posted by: dave | January 3, 2008 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Dems.

Clinton 31%
Edwards 30%
Obama 27%

The youth vote as usual doesn't turn out.

Reps.

Romney 30%
Huckabee 24%
McCain 20%

Romney staves off Huckabee, but McCain is poised to get the most momentum.

Overall; established/experience trump slogans and anger

Posted by: adriennemichael | January 3, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Obama 35%
Edwards 33%
Clinton 32%

Republicans:
Romney 36%
Huckabee 33%
McCain 28%

Storyline: Record turnout for Democrats; Third place finishers for both parties get the media hype--Clinton has to recover in NH and McCain gets momentum

Posted by: CurtLader | January 3, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Obama -- 31%
Edwards -- 28%
Clinton -- 26%

Pubs:

Huckabee -- 32%
Romney -- 29%
McCain -- 13%

Ticker: Obama the Dragon Slayer rides to NH with the Holy Grain, while Huckabee the Phony Slayer deeds NH to McCain for a Carolina showdown.

Posted by: broxocrat | January 3, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

wait... there's republicans running too? ;-)

Posted by: schencks84 | January 3, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Obama 35%
Edwards 25%
Clinton 22%
Biden 15%

Posted by: zb95 | January 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Report abuse

Zogby polls were rated -72 in credibility (that's MINUS 72).

They had Hillary ahead by 4 points until two days ago.

Now she's in third place!

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1411

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Report abuse

Dems:

Clinton 32%
Obama 30%
Edwards 30%

Reps:

Huckabee 35%
Romney 30%
McCain 18%

Storyline: Reporters underestimated strength of women's vote for Hillary and overestimated Obama's ability to get young people to caucus. Dana Milbank considered prescient.

Romney becomes butt of late night jokes for spending so much money and not being able to pull out a win.

Posted by: boldbooks | January 3, 2008 2:10 PM | Report abuse

Republicans
Huckabee 30%
Romney 26%
McCain 20%

Democrats
Obama 32%
Edwards 28%
Clinton 25%

Storyline: Can Clinton survive a third place finish? McCain's New Hampshire lead evaporates after independents jump to Obama.

Posted by: jnoel002 | January 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Herold from Tampa Florida

Obama 34%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 24%

Huckabee 35%
Romney 30%
Paul 20%

Hey and dont forget the FLORIDA primary January 29th

Posted by: hlord | January 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

one more storyline I am praying for:

"Arrogant, bullying, power-worshipping former mayor of New York finishes 6th (5%)behind pediatrician from Texas. (8%)"

Posted by: incognito3_uk | January 3, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Me:

Obama 29%
Clinton 24%
Edwards 23%
Biden 16%

Posted by: schencks84 | January 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Report abuse

"Prediction: It's cold and there's football on the TV"

Nat'l Weather Service shows a beautiful day in Iowa, upper 20s for now, albeit windy, with a low of 18 overnight. Sounds cold to most of the country, but a beautiful winter day by Iowa standards.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Des+Moines&state=IA&site=DMX&textField1=41.5767&textField2=-93.6174&e=0

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Report abuse

Interesting that most of the Republican "experts" cited here predict Edwards will win the Dem caucus, while the Dems do not predict that result. Not sure what to make of this curiosity...

Posted by: efischman | January 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Here's my pick for the storyline:

"Will winners Obama and Romney pick up enough early states to stave off Clinton and Giuliani on February 5?"

anticlimacus

Posted by: incognito3_uk | January 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Report abuse

Republicans

Romney 30%
Huckabee 26%
Thompson 19%
McCain 10%
Paul 10%

Democrats

Clinton 30%
Edwards 28%
Obama 28%

Stoylines: Paul beats Giuliani, ties disappointed McCain. Clinton inevitable.

Posted by: donttreadonme | January 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:
Huckabee - 29%
Romney - 24%
McCain - 21%

Democrats:
Obama - 36%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 27%

Storylines -

Ruplicans:
Huckabee soars despite last minute gaffe, Romney not enough personal wealth to transform his flip-flop image, McCain is reborn and on the charge, winning NH is within his grasp.

Democrats:
Obama does what Dean couldn't and converts enthusiam into votes, Clinton now facing an uphill battle in NH, and Edwards is running out of steam....and money.

Posted by: jlowens70 | January 3, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

"Prediction: It's cold and there's football on the TV. Independents don't hate Bush and the GOP that much!

darragh_geraghty"


Only a republcains could think this. Boy oh boy. these people are a lost cause. I fear for my children in this society. Are they really this dense or are they willfully ignorant fascists? I had my doubts at one time. No more :)

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

The Iowa caucuses favor the establishment. Notwithstanding the media flatulence about how Iowa is representative of the country, the caucuses are rigged by caucus veterans.

Accordingly, it will be Clinton, Obama and Edwards. For the GOP, it will be Romney, Huckabee, with nearly even splits among the rest.

Posted by: jas | January 3, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Obama 33%
Edwards 30%
Clinton 28%

Romney 31%
Huckabee 28%
McCain 20%

Fingers crossed that Biden has a stronger than expected showing!

Posted by: tlgaston | January 3, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Dean was predicted to win by all pundits and polls and lost big last time around.

Here are my picks:

Repubs:

Huckabee 33
McCain 26
Romney 25

Dems:

Clinton 33
Edwards 31
Obama 29

Posted by: philip.dahlberg | January 3, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

For the Dems it'll be a nail-biter going back and forth all night, but once the smoke clears look for the situation to still be cloudy.

Clinton 31%
Edwards 30%
Obama 30%

Both Obama and Clinton will claim victory; Tie for 2nd place is almost the same as a defeat for Edwards after all he has put in to the state, but Dennis Kucinich did him in yesterday. Whatever the results the nomination is still Clinton's to lose.

Repubs

Huckabee 32%
Romney 27%
McCain 14%
Paul 11%

The storyline will be that the situation with the Democratic candidates is still unclear and for the Republicans it'll be the strong showings of both McCain and Paul (relatively speaking).

And then hopefully this will be the last year that the Iowa Caucus is given this much importance. Let's just have all the primaries spread over a couple of days and get it over with. We've been hearing about the Iowa Caucus for six months now, and it'll all end up being a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Posted by: kissmemonster | January 3, 2008 1:47 PM | Report abuse

"Rufus, quit posting! I've been on hold with Dell for an hour now; pick up, will you?

Posted by: JD | January 3, 2008 01:19 PM
"

i WISH :)

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Dem
Edwards 27%
Obama 26%
Clinton 24%
Biden 12%

Rep
Huckabee 27%
Romney 26%
McCain 18%

Main storyline:
"Last minute dealmaking hurts Obama's image as a new kind of politician and Edward's consistet message pays off"

Posted by: samclare | January 3, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Elephants:

Huckabee- despite some amazing gaffes,( did no one check to see if writer's on strike on Tonight show, illegal Pakistani immigrants crossing the border???), he holds on to an eroding lead; its close, but hey many of these people cacaused for Pat Robertson, and nobody makes stranger statements than that guy ( 31 % )

Romney- negative ads work, great organization, would look good on money, does well with fiscal conservatives, but can't really close completely... its less about his Faith and more about his Flucuations... somehow gets the balloon drop in Minneapolis (30%)

McCain- to a moderate indy who grew up in AZ, I dont know why this guy isnt running away with this... but immigration is going to be his down-fall (again, hey, at least he's trying something, better than jingo-ism and default, do nothing amnesty), and when I talk to social conservatives they really dont like him... he does well, because he does look like the grown-up in the room, and at least for now, surge keeping news from Iraq looking less horrific) (18%)

Ron Paul- actually pulls near double digit... why? I leave that to smarter people then myself... maybe more derigible enthusiasts than previously noted. (9%)

Headlines: The press loves McCain (listen to Chris Matthews on this guy, and likes "the game"... will give them 'til Tuesday to pontificate about his precieved victory out of third place, and the battle with Obama for NH indys... also Paul becomes the Mendoza line (except for Guliani) anyone below him drops.

Donkeys:

I honestly have no idea... too close to really call... its up to who has the more persuasive people inside the cacus rooms to pick off the less than 15%'ers... but, here's the old college try:

Clinton 30
Obama 28
Edwards 21
Biden 10

Since the story is about expectations, Bidens ten will be discussed as surprise. Everyone else claims victory and marches on to NH. In the end, the person waving in the Mile High confetti will be wearing a pant-suit (no not Guliani)

Posted by: perkinsneurology | January 3, 2008 1:45 PM | Report abuse

Huckabee has been running in the lead for weeks, usually by significant margins, and the turnout is going to reflect that tonight. It always does.

Posted by: thecrisis | January 3, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse

All of the neocons want Romney to win, but why? Why on earth would anyone want a two-faced, lying millionaire as their president? Because he's mean and can run nasty attack ads in the general election without remorse?

McCain or Giuliani would make an infinitely better president.

Posted by: thecrisis | January 3, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 34
Obama 32
Edwards 24

Prediction: It's cold and there's football on the TV. Independents don't hate Bush and the GOP that much!

Romney 30
Huckabee 28
McCain 16

Prediction: GOTV. It's simple, Romney can afford more snow shovels.

Storyline: After all the huff and all the puff, Iowans failed to cause a storm, much less a blizzard! Next time, let's just pay a whole lot less attention!

Posted by: darragh_geraghty | January 3, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

As someone who grew up in Iowa, I predict with great certainty that Romney will NOT win on the Republican side. Unlike the nation as a whole, Iowans do not like negative ads and will punish candidates who use them.

Posted by: david_ray | January 3, 2008 1:39 PM | Report abuse

1- Obama +4 points
2- Edwards
3- Clinton

1- Romney +5
2- Huck
3- Thompson

Here's more music to Obama's ears:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/iowa-caucus-2008-prediction-010308001.html

Posted by: rfpiktor | January 3, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 37%
Edwards 29%
Obama 24%


Romney 29%
Huckabee 25%
McCain 13%


It's interesting that pundits obviously go against the polls to predict a Romney win based on better organization but won't for Clinton. No one has ever won an election in US history based on the youth vote and Clinton has 5000 drivers to bring, if need be, every single one of her voters to the polls. 5000 drivers times ten voters each is 50,000. Obama's demographic won't show.

PS do i win a prize if correct, or closest??

Posted by: slbk | January 3, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Clinton:30%
Edwards:29%
Obama:27%

Romney:29%
Huckabee:27%
Thompson:21%

Headline: Can Obama survive this set back

Posted by: GBthunder16 | January 3, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Everyone is wrong except for me.

Demos
1. Obama 36%
2. Edwards 33%
3. Clinton 31%

Obama is simply too strong coming into the caucus and Edwards' upswing in momentum is going to help him greatly, but not enough to win. Richardson isn't going to make 15% and so everyone below Clinton will redistribute to the other candidates. Biden goes to Obama/Edwards, Richardson goes to Obama (both liberal candidates), Kucinich goes to Obama (he told them to), Dodd goes to Clinton/Obama.

GOP
1. Huckabee 35%
2. Romney 29%
3. McCain 20%
4. Thompson 16%

Anyone denying Huck a victory tonight has their head in the clouds. He's got momentum, he's got charisma and he fairs well with old voters and female voters - two of the big caucus blocs. Romney is just dirty as sin and he's going nowhere after NH (once McCain pummels him there).

It's going to be Obama v. McCain and since Obama takes more Independents, he wins the presidency.

Posted by: thecrisis | January 3, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

Storylines:
1. McComeback
2. Romney can't buy happiness
3. Thompson drops and backs McCain
4. No clear victory in Dem race (all chips reset for NH)

Posted by: rwb82 | January 3, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

And now for something completely different:-)

Romney 29%
Huckabee 29%
Paul 14%
McCain 14%
Giuliani 7%
Thompson 7%
Hunter 0%

Edwards 29%
Obama 29%
Clinton 24%
Biden 10%
Richardson 7%
Dodd 1%
DK 0%

Paul really does have some voters who are willing to stay late in the caucus meetings.

HRC is no longer inevitable.

NH is up for grabs, but now must be seen as McC's to lose.
-------------------------------------
I have little reason to believe any of this, of course. As bsimon suggests, I ain't no time traveler.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 3, 2008 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Edwards: 32%
Obama: 31
Clinton: 30

Republicans
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 32
McCain: 17
Thompson: 8
Paul: 8

Posted by: rwb82 | January 3, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 32
Edwards: 30
Clinton: 24

Huckabee: 28
Romney: 26
McCain: 16

Biggest storylines
1. The fall of Hillary
1a. Obamaramaslammajamma
1b. Edwards??!?
2. Huckamania running sorta wild
2a. McCain?!!!
2b. Romnzzz
2c. Ron Paul denied crushing win by vast left- and right-wing conspiracy

My official endorsement: Edwards, but I won't be too disappointed if he comes in second to Obama.

Posted by: novamatt | January 3, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Edwards 34
Obama 30
Clinton 23

Republicans

Romney 28
McCain 24
Huckabee 20
Paul 16

Storyline: Edwards and Paul surprisingly strong, Hillary and Huckabee surprisingly weak. McCain is comeback kid

Posted by: rej123 | January 3, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse


Dems:

Edwards 39%
Clinton 31%
Obama 29%

Repubs:

Romney 30%
Huckabee 27%
Paul 18%

Organization and ground game wins in Iowa.

Posted by: rmarshall | January 3, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

http://pichaus.com/hillary-meal-deal-6-66--96g@

check this out and tell me there's no sexism in this race.

Posted by: drindl | January 3, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 32%
Obama 28%
Edwards 25%

Storyline: Candidate favored by older folks beats out the youth candidate.

Huckabee 32%
Romney 30%
McCain 14%

Storyline: God's Own Candidate wins.

Posted by: jondnorton | January 3, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Obama 33%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 29%

Republicans
Huckabee 30%
Romney 26%
McCain 15%

Storyline: "Obama wins Iowa, the true anti-Clinton vote. Huckabee value voters defeat Romney organization."

Posted by: halloitsmark | January 3, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Rufus, quit posting! I've been on hold with Dell for an hour now; pick up, will you?

Posted by: JD | January 3, 2008 1:19 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:

No idea.

Republicans:

Paul: 67%

Posted by: timothysottek | January 3, 2008 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
1) Edwards 36%
2) Obama 32%
3) Dodd 18%

Republicans
1) Romney 28%
2) Huckabee 25%
3) McCain 22%

Storylines: For Democrats it comes down to the issues and not the name. In Iowa the angry-populist beats hope, but hope will use this showing to take NH. Dodd surprises everyone (don't underestimate the firefighter support) and takes third above Clinton, who cannot even get enough women in Iowa to muster 20%.

For Republicans it becomes clear that there is still not a true leading candidate. Romney basically wins by default. All eyes will be on Guiliani in NH and Huckabee in SC and Nevada.

Posted by: mcgratsp | January 3, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

I confess I still don't fully understand the Iowa caucus process so I am whistling in the wind, but my guess is that on the Democratic side that the first round will be remarkably even among Obama, Edwards and Clinton, but when those whose candidates fail to make the 15 percent threshold make their second choice, Obama is the big beneficiary and ends up with 40 percent vs. 30 for both Clinton and Edwards. The storyline: how badly will the media pile on Clinton, how much of a boost does Obama get going into NH (especially with the short time frame for media coverage between the two events) and when will Edwards decide to withdraw as he put so much into Iowa.

On the Republican side, Huckabee edges Romney with McCain a strong third, but the story the media will gravitate toward is how badly Guiliani does and how this is the end of his national frontrunner status and how the race is truly wide open -- maybe until the convention.

Posted by: scott_farris | January 3, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

What? No zouk today.

Bueler Bueler Bueler.

What is a blogger/newsperson with zero credibility? Are they then a propogandist? If they are professing fascist principles, are they then a fascist propogandist? Yes

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

ROMNEY 28%

HUCKABEE 26%

PAUL 17%

Storyline: Ron paul pulls a shocker. He comes in third over a fourth place McCain and Thompson.

Posted by: lumi21us | January 3, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

The Politisite Political Predictions are

Democrats:
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
Dodd Drops out, Biden Goes to NH

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Romney
4. Thompson

Duncan Hunter Drops Out.

See our front page story: The Iowa Caucas? Yeah, I had that, Took two weeks to get rid of it. On Nowpublic.com

Thanks as always Chris

Albert Milliron

Posted by: politisite | January 3, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Obama 51%
Edwards 21%
Clinton 17%
Biden 11%

Romney 36%
McCain 23%
Huckabee 21%
Thompson 12%

Obama breaks away from pack. Huckabee fades!

Posted by: mike.burns | January 3, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA 42%

EDWARDS 27%

CLINTON 25%

Storyline: Obama wins big! He Attracts new democrats, independents and republicans.

Posted by: lumi21us | January 3, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

"Obama Has Been Warned
by Sun dog
Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 08:14:32 PM PST
This may put to rest the fears of a few who are watching the Iowa Demcoratic Caucus with bated breath. I feel now I can go to my grave in peace because I have served my country by helping to avert catastrophe.

Sun dog's diary :: ::
Today when I shook Barack Obama's hand, I told him what needed to be said.

"Barack."

He leaned in as he does to hear people when he shakes your hand.

"When you win tomorrow, don't scream into the microphone."

There you go. Now we can all sleep well tonight knowing tomorrow brings a brighter future for us all.

For some reason, he laughed at my sound advice.

"I promise."

Was it nervous laughter? Is he jittery and on the verge of getting all screamy? All I can do is pray that my warning got through to him on the eve of the big night.

You don't need to thank me. I did it for all of us. "


:)


YYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRR!

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Erik's picks:
Dems
Obama 35
Edwards 32
Clinton 27

Repubs
Romney 32
Huckabee 30
McCain 18

Storyline: Does Obama's momentum going into NH make him able to run the table, and does Huck's close second make him able to survive a dismal NH showing?

Posted by: erikpdumont | January 3, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

I will go with:

Democrats
Edwards: 33%
Obama: 33%
Clinton: 26%

Republicans
Romney 34%
Huckabee: 28%
McCain: 18%

Posted by: Colin | January 3, 2008 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38
Edwards 31
Clinton 29

Record voter turnout and independent support boosts Obama.

Romney 27
Huckabee 26
McCain 18

McCain is primed for NH, but who will draw more independents there, McCain or Obama? A pitched effort for independent voters in NH begins.

Posted by: dpoliner | January 3, 2008 1:02 PM | Report abuse

Obama 33
Edwards 29
Clinton 27.5


Huckabee 32
Romney 31
McCain 21
Thompson 8

Posted by: resing | January 3, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

I wanted to say that the reason all the DC pundits are saying Edwards is that he polls the highest with the tried and true caucus goers. They don't think the Youth movement will translate tonight and Obama will fall flat. I disagree and I think the folks in Washington are gonna have to rethink how they view these things after tonight.

By the way if Obama wins tonight, he should make a phone call to Howard Dean and thank him for laying the ground work for this four years ago.

Posted by: AndyR3 | January 3, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

R
Huckabee
Romney
Paul

D
Obama
Edwards
Clinton

Posted by: drindl | January 3, 2008 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Democrats

Obama 34%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 29%

"Solid independent and youth turnout puts Obama over the top; will this give him enough of a boost in NH?"

Republicans
Romney 30%
Huckabee 28%
McCain 15%

"Major gaffes by Huckabee over closing weeks and organizational disadvantage lead to Huckabust... Romney now clear frontrunner." (shudder)


Very interesting, the party splits in predicting the democratic race. I would suppose the republicans are more skeptical of first -time voters, which would explain why Edwards does best.

Posted by: Nissl | January 3, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

GOP-
Huckabee-35%
Romney- 32%,
McCain- 20%.
Paul will have about 8% and Thompson will drop out after only registering 3%.

Storyline- A big picture of McCain at his rally and the Qoute "Not Dead Yet"

Democrats- I see a huge turnout
Obama -37%,
Edwards -28%,
HRC-25%.
Biden will take virtually the rest with 8%. After that Richardson, and Dodd will drop out.

Storyline- Hope Floats: Obama wins big!

Posted by: AndyR3 | January 3, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

SoonerThought.blogspot.com predictions:

Obama 32%
Edwards 23%
Clinton 21%
Biden 18%
Others 6%

Posted by: soonerthought | January 3, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Obama 38
Edwards 30
Clinton 30

Romney 30
Huckabee 28
McCain 18

Storyline, Obama brings in a new coalition and Romney holds together an old one that McCain can overcome in NH. Thompson may do better than expected.

Posted by: paulb | January 3, 2008 12:50 PM | Report abuse

"Main storyline:
"Youth vote, demise of boomer influence"

Posted by: CurtVolb | January 3, 2008 12:46 PM
"

Word is born. They had their shot. they chose un-wisely. The future is now. The end of racism, sexism, anti-spirtualism, is at hand

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Democrat

1) Edwards
2) Obama
3) Hillary

Republican

1) Romney
2) Paul
3) Huckabee

Posted by: hannibal81 | January 3, 2008 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Democrats:
Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 31%
Obama: 29%

Republicans:
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 29%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 12%

What are your predictions CC?

Posted by: wtwebb | January 3, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Dem

Obama 34%
Edwards 24%
Clinton 24%

Rep
Huckabee 26%
Romney 25%
McCain 18%

Main storyline:
"Youth vote, demise of boomer influence"

Posted by: CurtVolb | January 3, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Obama 31%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 31%

Everybody claims victory-nobody wins yet

Posted by: babloom | January 3, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

Our Ron Paul HQ didn't just pull a string of all-nighters for nothing. Cheers to the pundits who are about to be proven wrong because they paid too much attention to the media fare and not enough on the ground.

Posted by: devon.shaw | January 3, 2008 12:45 PM | Report abuse

2 things. Chris, I missed YOUR predictions, did they mysteriously disappear in the ether, as our posts sometimes do??

secondly, I'll add percentages to my predictions:

1.Obama 33%
2.Edwards 30%
3.Clinton 28%

1.Huckabee 31%
2.Romney 29%
3.McCain 19%

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Obama

Edwards

clinton

Huck

romney

Mccain

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

It may not happen tonight, but the story at some point will be Romney proving that $$ can't buy the presidency like it can buy a senate seat or governor's chair.

WMR is an empty suit with nice hair. He's the Potemkin Village of the candidates.

Posted by: Spectator2 | January 3, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

"A Biden-Obama deal?


Some actual reporting on a deal in the works:

A source close to the Biden campaign described a possible arrangement, now under discussion between the two camps, that could apply to certain precincts where Biden can't meet the 15 percent viability threshold, but where he is backed by local officials with the clout to move Biden supporters to Obama. In return, Biden could capture some of Obama's overflow in precincts where the Illinois senator has more than enough support to win.

She's got confirmation from Obamaland that they're talking.
"

Ben smith

Haircut propogandist, so take it with a grain. If so why has biden waited until today, unlike DK

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 3, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Obama: 43%
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 27%

Story: Obama wins big with new voters and independents.

Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 28%
McCain: 17%

Story: McCain takes third but overall Republicans are not happy with their field of candidates; turnout low.

Posted by: matt_ahrens | January 3, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

1 Edwards 32%
2 Clinton 31%
3 Obama 26%

1 Romney 28%
2 McCain 25%
3 Huckabee 24%
4 Paul 15%

Democrats will realise Obama can't go the distance and begin to abandon him tonight.

Romney supporters will listlessly show up, whilst a last minute groundswell of "common sense, win-in-November" voters will suddenly see a McCain light. Meanwhile, the equally big news will be the strong showing of Paul.

Posted by: jaysalomon | January 3, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

Democrats
Clinton 33
Obama 30
Edwards 22

Republicans
Romney: 33
Huckabee: 27
McCain: 17

Great blog Chris, keep the beard, looks hot. ;)

Posted by: PatrickNYC1 | January 3, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Meanwhile, the two last polls out of Iowa show conflicting results, just about summarizing the confusion the race is in. Zogby has Obama rising fast and ARG has a big Clinton lead. Why the difference? They have a VERY different proportion of independents. Check it out for yourself: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/reading-morning-tea-leaves-its-caucus.html

Posted by: campaigndiaries | January 3, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

1.Obama
2.Edwards
3.Clinton

1.Huckabee
2.Romney
3.McCain

Storylines coming out:

for Dems: predictions of HRCs demise, which will prove to be premature

for Repubs: McCain surge and evangelicals still move the vote in IA, though evangelicals won't produce jack in NH

substory: Thompson proves too lazy to drop out

Posted by: bsimon | January 3, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

What I think the republicans are seeing is that Edwards has been shown in all polls to be everyone's second choice. Considering that the polls show that all three candidates-Clinton, Obama and Edwards- are within a few percentage points, it is not unlikely that at first deliberation none of the candidates will get the necessary 15% at many caucuses. If this happens then Edwards is in great position to take Iowa because voters would theoretically change their vote to Edwards to give him the 15%.

Posted by: djhansen | January 3, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Obama wins Big,
Edwards
Clinton

Posted by: sjxylib | January 3, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

A real good indicator of the Republican playbook. Every one of them chose Edwards as the winner. Coincidence? I think not. Here's the real winners and losers.

Democratic

OBAMA 32%
CLINTON 30%
EDWARDS 27%

Republican

HUCKABEE 27%
ROMNEY 25%
MCCAIN 18%

Posted by: pncjdbeard | January 3, 2008 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Mike's predictions

Democrats
Obama: 31%
Clinton: 30
Edwards: 28

Republicans
Huckabee: 30%
Romney: 29
McCain: 24

Storyline: McCain and Edwards finish strong, keeping them well into the race, well beyond N.H.

Posted by: mikewilliams333 | January 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

I predict:
Republican
Huckabee 33
Romney 31
McCain 20

Democrat
Clinton 31
Obama 30
Edwards 24

The women will come out and vote and Huckabee will hold his Conservative team.

Posted by: stubyb | January 3, 2008 12:22 PM | Report abuse

How odd that all the Republican pollsters have Edwards coming in first and nearly all the Dems have Obama first. Do the Dem pollsters know their supporters better or are the Republicans onto something? Crazy time.

Posted by: cmss1 | January 3, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

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