New Hampshire Predictions Revisited: The Few, The Proud, The T-Shirt Winners
UPDATE, 4:50 pm: We spoke too soon. There were actually TWO members of the Fix community who predicted a Clinton win in New Hampshire. "youcrew" had the race at 37 percent for Clinton, 35 percent for Obama and 19 percent for Edwards. Of his picks, he wrote: "Of course, I don't really believe any of this. I just figured an upset pick was my only chance!!!" Well "youcrew", you were right. And that upset pick wins you a Fix t-shirt!
Out of the more than 300 predictions made by the Fix community, just one person chose Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) as the winner of the Democratic primary. When all the predictions were sorted -- a BIG thank you to Post politics producer Emily Freifeld for scanning all the comments -- it was "jgale2" who proved prescient.
Here's the winning prediction:
If you're "jgale2", email me at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost Dot com. You just won a free official Fix t-shirt and the admiration of prognosticators everywhere!
Although just one member of the Fixistas got it right on the Democratic side, that was one better than the number of The Fix's political pros class who predicted the results correctly. Brendan Daly, communications director for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), was the
closest, picking Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) to beat Clinton by only nine points.
We just can't reward that kind of bad prognosticating. No t-shirt for you.
Moving on to the Republican side, far more people accurately predicted the order of finish.
But, The Fix prediction game isn't horseshoes, so close doesn't count. Here are the two winners and their picks:
In the political pros class, it was Republican pollster Neil Newhouse who came the closest. His picks:
As to the winner in predicting the best storyline, SCADS of people went with the 'Mac is Back' narrative. Since The Fix is a small operation, we can't very well give you all t-shirts. So, we went with a storyline winner who not only predicted McCain but also seemed to foresee a less-than-definitive result for Obama in the Granite State.
Our winner is "Owgriswo" and here is his/her storyline: "Both races still open. Obama didn't score the expected knockout punch, but Edwards faces potentially insurmountable structural hurdles. Romney still alive, though gasping."
As for a winner in the political professionals class in the storyline category, no one even came close to hitting the mark. Come on guys!
If you happened to make it into the winners circle, make sure to email me at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost DOT com so I can get an address to send you an official Fix t-shirt. (The shirts are in production as we speak; please be patient.) If you didn't win, there always Michigan. And Nevada. And South Carolina. And Florida. And Feb. 5.
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