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Florida Prediction Time (And S.C. Prediction Winners)

The competition for official Fix t-shirts grows more heated with each passing primary. Nearly 300 predictions were made in advance of last Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary -- the most we've had for a single vote yet!

While the vast majority of people picked Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) to win, there were very few who predicted the wide margin he would win by.

The clear winner was a poster by the name of "dkbs" who came shockingly close to calling the exact margin. His prediction has Obama at 55 percent, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) at 29 percent and former senator John Edwards at 16 percent. The actual result was a near-mirror image: Obama 55 percent, Clinton 27 percent, Edwards 18 percent.

Well done "dkbs". A Fix t-shirt will be sent your way as soon as they are ready.

As for the storyline, many, many people predicted that the black vote would carry Obama to victory. But, we were looking for a little bit more and a poster named "jacondo" gave that to us.

His/Her winning prediction: "[South Carolina] voters think hard about 4 or 8 more years of Hillary and Bill, register their distaste for their nasty tactics. Obama does [better than expected] among whites and women, 'bounces' into Super Tuesday with elegant acceptance speech."

Nicely done. If you are "jacondo" make sure to send an email to me at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost DOT com with your mailing address and size preference.

(By the way, our favorite prediction of the day? That came from "dlewis 63" who offered this: "Obama takes South Carolina; D Lewis wins attractive Fix T-Shirt." We like to reward creativity at The Fix so if you are "dlewis63" send us an email and you will get the "attractive Fix T-Shirt" you predicted.)

Didn't win? There's always tomorrow -- er -- today. The Florida Republican primary is the last chance to predict your way to the coveted official Fix t-shirt. As always, we want the three top finishers in order and with percentages in tonight's Florida Republican skirmish. We also want the storyline that will dominate the press coverage coming out of the Sunshine State.

Most polls close in Florida at 7 p.m. ET so that's the deadline for getting your predictions in.

Looking for guidance? Check out the polling data at pollster.com orReal Clear Politics.

Predict away in the comments section below!

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 29, 2008; 11:49 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: The Edwards Factor
Next: The Endorsement Hierarchy Revisited

Comments

Everyone has to check out the article "White Voters with a Side of Hispanics" on the blogzine Savage Politics. This is an awesome discussion and analysis on the current Democrat and GOP candidates and their eligibility.

www.savagepolitics.com
Here is an excerpt: "Tuesday night's Florida Primary was a very important episode in the drama in which both the Republican and Democrat Parties are unfolding towards the Presidency of the United States. It also dramatically demonstrated the incredible bias that the Media continues to display towards the Democratic hopeful Barack Obama, in spite of all the evidence pointing to his lack of viability. From MSNBC's Chris Mathews, who openly stated the day before that any Network that decided to report on the Democratic voting results in Florida was proving a "gross" favoritism for Hillary (ironically enough his Network ended up having to cover it nevertheless), to CNN's pundits, who continuously utilized the exact same rhetoric that the Obama Campaign was spewing to excuse their defeat ("Beauty Pageant" was their favorite phrase, with all the sexist connotations it implies). All the same, the Florida results in the Democratic side were overwhelmingly favorable to Hillary Clinton, who won a 50% margin, to Obama's 33%, Edwards' 14%, and Gravel's 1%. On the Republican side, it was John McCain who came out victorious with a 36% margin, to Romney's 31%, Giuliani's 15%, Huckabee's 14%, and Paul's 3%. Let's discuss each Party's results and their realistic consequence.
First, we have the very significant victory of John McCain. His candidacy was, from the very start, labeled as a failure due to his unpopularity amongst most "base" Republicans, much of it owed to McCain's overwhelmingly dubious record on Conservative issues. His notorious tendency to side with multiple (highly despised) Democrats on issues like Immigration, Bush's Tax Cuts and other measures, have always been enough to marginalize him from even the "moderate wing" within his Party. Still, when the Florida Exit Polls are analyzed, they reflect many unexpected re-alignments in his favor. Evangelical/Born Again Christians voted for John McCain in a 30% margin, in comparison to both Romney's and Huckabee's 29%. This may seem like an insignificant difference, but when you also consider that the majority of non-Evangelicals (Catholics, Atheist, etc.) also..." Find the rest of the article at http://savagepolitics.com/?p=64

Posted by: elsylee28 | January 30, 2008 6:08 PM | Report abuse

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

Posted by: jwholtkamp | January 30, 2008 6:37 AM | Report abuse

McCain 36
Romney 30
Giuliani 14
Huckabee 14

McCain Sails to another victory, Romney Presses on, Guiliani to drop out.

Posted by: dd1101a | January 29, 2008 12:49 PM


You look like the winner to me.

Some of the right wingers are going to be apoplectic that McCain won a closed primary.

Posted by: jimd52 | January 29, 2008 11:05 PM | Report abuse

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

Posted by: jwholtkamp | January 29, 2008 7:38 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 38
McCain: 32
Rudy: 15
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 3

The Economy Strikes Back! Romney lives another day as he convincingly beats McCain on the back of Economic stress.

Clinton: 49
Obama: 30
Edwards: 11

Hillary has a strong showing in a beauty contest, but is unable to get a majority of Democrats on her side. February 5th might not be decisive after all.

Posted by: pierredude | January 29, 2008 6:57 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34, Romney 33, Giuliani 17

Key endorsements help McCain win crucial primary. Giuliani on way out?

Posted by: GmanBlue | January 29, 2008 6:54 PM | Report abuse

romney 34
mcCain 33
Rudy 19
Huckabee 8

Posted by: fllewellyn | January 29, 2008 6:54 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 32%
Romney - 32%
Rudy - 15%

Recount, Part Deux! Fla. once again too close to call; Rudy wishes he was still a Dem

Posted by: chickens97 | January 29, 2008 6:51 PM | Report abuse

Just to try something different.

Romney 30
McCain 28
Giuliani 21

Early votes for Giuliani siphon off some of McCain's moderate support. Romney and McCain go into Feb 5 with the media hesitant to declare either a front runner. Many entertain the possibility that Giuliani, seeing his numbers falling in the northeast, will drop out and endorse McCain before Feb 5.

Posted by: certop | January 29, 2008 6:42 PM | Report abuse

Headline: Romney's Diligence and Dollars Reap Dividends in the Sunshine State

Posted by: lncln388 | January 29, 2008 6:41 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 38%
McCain: 30%
Giuliani: 17%
Huckabee: 15%

Posted by: lncln388 | January 29, 2008 6:38 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 34.3%
Romney - 33.9%
Rudy - 15.2%
Huckabee - 13.8%

Storyline: Rudy declares a convincing victory for third place. Romney focuses on his overall lead in delegate count & how Florida has just pushed him closer to the goal-line. Flush with victory, McCain nevertheless resists the urge to point out that Rush Limbaugh remains a big fat idiot.

Posted by: wapo1 | January 29, 2008 6:37 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%

Headlines: Giuliani and McCain stopped in Florida

Posted by: jasonlafuente | January 29, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 31
Huckabee 14

The storyline leading out of Florida will be "Giuliani out of the race - McCain, Romney duel for voters in what is becoming a two-person shootout for the Republican nomination."


I just want to add, but not for purposes of betting on the leading coverage coming out of the primary, that I think HRC's quest to make Florida relevant in the delegate totals and going into Super Tuesday will be a close second to the Republican outcome in terms of coverage.


Size Large shirt por favor.

Posted by: shepherc | January 29, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

McCain 39
Romney 34
Huckabee 17
Giuliani 10

To everyone's surprise, McCain wins definitively, and Giuliani chokes much harder than anyone expected.

Posted by: Cayres1 | January 29, 2008 6:35 PM | Report abuse

Romney- 33
McCain- 30
Guiliani- 18
Huckabee- 14

Romney is new frontrunner for GOP, McCain is low on cash has yet to win a closed primary. The once national frontrunner Guiliani is done.

For the Dems, Hillary wins big, vows to seat delegates and claims Obama has no momentum.

Posted by: jthemann | January 29, 2008 6:35 PM | Report abuse

thanks g-money.

we at the detnews love your stuf.

Posted by: damnjap | January 29, 2008 6:34 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34%
Giuliani 31%
Romney 19%
Huckabee 15%

Story: Rudy dances the night away in close second finish - Chris Cillizza in bed promptly at 9pm.

Posted by: ashafer_usa | January 29, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 36
McCain: 30
Guiliani: 15

Headline: Republican Nomination Still Up for Grabs. McCain Fares Worse in Closed Primary: Can He Overcome the Distrust of the Base?

Posted by: mack0174 | January 29, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 4%

Oops, forgot storyline:

McCain wins hard fought victory of Romney as national security becomes the main issue of Florida primary. Giuliani drops out.


Medium please.

Posted by: dhayjones | January 29, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Giuliani 30%
Romney 29%

Last minute TV spend and Crist endorsement gives McCain clear lead. Rudy squeaks past Romney, promptly annoints himself "comeback kid".

Romney stays in. Rudy fizzles. McCain wins Feb 5 and beyond.

Posted by: vikramxraju | January 29, 2008 6:29 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35 percent
Romney: 33 percent
Giuliani: 14 percent
Huckabee: 10 percent
Paul: 8 percent

McCain pulls out win in a tight race that can't be called until late in the evening; gains momentum going into Super Tuesday. Giuliani drops out of the race.

Posted by: anballard | January 29, 2008 6:27 PM | Report abuse

Okay, I signed in with another email addy, I can't help my username, so use "Thesushi" if you want.

McCain 32%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 22%
Huckabee 15%

Giuliani wins outright in early balloting, of which was a partial strategy in itself. Romney and McCain have no mandate to pursue to Super Tuesday, confounding the press and pundits to a degree of alcoholism.

Mako from Detroit out.

PS: I just want to see my name in lights, and be the Superpundit of common folk.

Posted by: damnjap | January 29, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 4%

Medium please.

Posted by: dhayjones | January 29, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 38
McCain: 35
Guliani: 12
Huckabee: 9
Paul: 4

Romney wins the Latino vote. Romney wins because of economic background. When will Guliani call a press conference?

Posted by: ronnybj | January 29, 2008 6:22 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 40
Romney: 32
Giuliani: 16
Huckabee: 9
Paul: 3

Story: Early voting propels Giuliani to 3rd ahead of Huckabee. Giuliani to withdraw from the race.

Posted by: Dvoryanin | January 29, 2008 6:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 33
Giuliani 13

Storyline: Squeaker propels McCain to undisputed front-runner status; Rudy is toast.

Posted by: dlewis63 | January 29, 2008 6:18 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Romney big spending pays off as closed Republican primary goes to the former Governor. Giuliani's one state strategy proves to be his undoing. It's a two person race for the Republicans.

Posted by: trmasonic | January 29, 2008 6:17 PM | Report abuse

McCain 40 Romney 33 Giuliani 20 Huckabee 6 Paul 1

McCain romp as veterans flock to polls.

Posted by: irvoice | January 29, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 40
Romney: 32
Guiliani: 15
Huck: 10

Storline: McCain emerges as clear front-runner, despite economy dominating voter concerns. But Romney has private funds to continue race indefinitely. Guiliani likely to exit.

Posted by: peterlov | January 29, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

McCain 31
Romney 29
Giuliani 20
Huckabee 14
Paul 6

Storyline: Immigrant-bashing is bad politics, not to mention bad policy.

Posted by: loudounlinda | January 29, 2008 6:15 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 30
Guiliani 15
Huckabee 14

McCain ready for Super Tuesday. Can the others still make lemonade?

Posted by: wnickel | January 29, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

There no sense in doing the Dems:

Clinton 45
Obama 38
Edwards 17

Republicans

McCain 55
Romney 35
Huckabee 10

Posted by: nlehto | January 29, 2008 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Romney - 35
McCain - 32
Giuliani - 14
Huckster - 13

Romney expands delegate lead but does he have the momentum to win on Plain Old Tuesday?; Lack of voter support and funding signal end of Hizzonner; Clinton wins as expected but does it matter?

Posted by: lxs05 | January 29, 2008 6:05 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35%
Romney: 29%
Guiliani: 18%
Huckabee: 16%

Storyline: Is it over?

Posted by: b.gastel | January 29, 2008 6:04 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35%
Romney: 32%
Guiliani: 15%
Huckabee: 12%

McCain narrowly wins, is now front runner for the Republican nomination. Romney's money will be huge for Feb. 5. Will Huck's southern strategy on Feb. 5 keep him in, or will McCain sweep those as well?

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | January 29, 2008 6:00 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%

McCain 30%

Guliani 15%

"Romney beats McCain; Still no clear frontrunner for the GOP"

"Guliani may as well pack up and go home and admit that his Florida strategy was stupid."

Posted by: Schoone | January 29, 2008 5:58 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 42%
McCain: 33%
Giuliani: 12%

Romney wins convincingly in the first closed primary. He is now the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. McCain is still not finished because of his dominance in the North and the Huckabee split in the South. Romney will need big wins in the West to pull out the nomination. California could be critical.

Posted by: paulalgire | January 29, 2008 5:53 PM | Report abuse

re Dems:
Clinton 55%
Obama 26%
Edwards 19%

Despite national cold shoulder, more Florida Dems vote than Reps. Clinton wins every demographic category, Kennedy endorsement sinks Obama in South Florida.

Posted by: tonysmith | January 29, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32
McCain 29
Huck 16

"Mac's perceived lack of conservative credentials and economic worries edge Romney past Mac in FL.

"Voice of God spurs evangelical voters past 'godless' Guiliani.

Posted by: sw7104 | January 29, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

re Dems:
Clinton 55%
Obama 26%
Edwards 19%

Clinton wins every demographic category, Kennedy endorsement sinks Obama in South Florida.

Posted by: tonysmith | January 29, 2008 5:51 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 29
McCain: 26
Huckabee: 17
Giuliani: 15
Paul: 13

Storyline: Giuliani's poor performance prompts dropout, followed by a surprise Romney endorsement.

Posted by: im_unowen | January 29, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

ROMNEY 39 McCAIN 32 GIULIANI 18 I CAN FEEL A SURGE FOR ROMNEY, ITS THE ECONOMY. PLUS SEN.McCAIN IS A REALLY BAD COMPAIGNER.

Posted by: mitch2828 | January 29, 2008 5:42 PM | Report abuse

McCain 28
Romney 27
Huckabee 18
Guliani 17
Paul 5

Guliani finish poorly and MCcain now the new front runner. GOPs will probably rally behind Romney.

Posted by: gbuze007 | January 29, 2008 5:41 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 34
McCain: 31
Huckabee: 17

Storyline: An end in sight? Come from behind win gives Romney the big mo' heading into Super Tuesday.

Posted by: comtrevor | January 29, 2008 5:34 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 30
Guiliani 21
Huckabee 12
Paul 3

Posted by: gabemeister | January 29, 2008 5:33 PM | Report abuse

Clinton 51
Obama 44
Edwards 5

Democratic race is perceived by everyone except John Edwards to have only two participants.

Posted by: patrican | January 29, 2008 5:30 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 33
McCain: 30
Guiliani: 24
Huckabee: 10
Paul: 3

Romney wins as the economy dominates voters thoughts. Romney emerges as the clear front runner as McCain's inability to win a closed primary with strong endorsements leads many to question his viability. Guiliani drops out but does not endorse anyone until after super Tuesday making him irrelelvant.

Posted by: hugh.vanderveer | January 29, 2008 5:27 PM | Report abuse

McCain, 36%
Romney, 30%
Huckabee, 15%
Guiliani, 12%
Paul, 4%
Harold Stassen, 3%

Headline: McCain reluctant fallback choice of Republicans when informed that Harold Stassen is dead.

Posted by: Stonecreek | January 29, 2008 5:21 PM | Report abuse

Romney 29.5
McCain 29.4
Guiliani 22
Huckabee 12
Paul 6

Posted by: tsheeran | January 29, 2008 5:21 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 33
Romney: 27
Huckabee: 19
Guiliani: 17
Paul: 4

Headlines: McCain train keeps on chuggin'.... Guiliani's Florida gamble doesn't pay dividends... Floridian Evangelicals boost V.P. chances for Huckabee, but put another nail in Romney's Mormon coffin... Ron Paul underperforms (compared to his bank account) yet again...

Posted by: Boutan | January 29, 2008 5:09 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 31
Romney - 30
Giuliani - 26
Huck: 12
Paul - 1
McCain owes his win to Charlie Crist, who proves the value of the Fix-dubbed state-wide state-specific endorsement. Giuliani comes in third, but keeps it close.

Posted by: am9489 | January 29, 2008 5:00 PM | Report abuse

Guilliani - 29%
Romney - 27%
McCain - 23%
Huckabee - 18%

Early voting, combined with unsavory tactics on the part of Romney and McCain, help Guiliani. nyfan304 brags about how he didn't really think Guiliani would win, but knew that in the unlikely event that he did, the probability of receiving a Fix t-shirt in the mail would greatly improve. He will no longer feel the need to claim that he really did have a gut feeling about Hillary in New Hampshire, but instead followed his brain, which was itself abiding by wisdom in numbers(of pundits).


Posted by: nyfan304 | January 29, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Sorry John, its the economy which is already in a recession notwithstanding DUBYA's denial of the economic facts. The economic facts of life go far beyond a US real estate market which has only begun its downward spiral, one that won't bottom out until 2010! Consumer spending won't be turned around from a decline over the next 2-3 years by a tax rebate check which comes in the summer after consumer psychology has already changed and become one of belt tightening instead of spending on more goods and services. Better get ready for a prolonged and painful recession which be deeper and longer than previous recessions because of Bush and Republicans in Congress economic policies. Policies such as; Financing an unnecessary war with huge deficits. Not restraining federal spending but letting it get further out of control through the use of earmarks to an extent never seen when Democrats were in control of the purse strings. Not addressing existing deficiencies in Social Security and Medicare entitlement programs but making them worse by adding a prescription drug benefit without providing a means to pay for it. Not pushing for energy conservation measures which would reduce the US reliance on imported oil which is now almost $100 a barrel. Bush and his so-called Republican supporters in Congress have totally betrayed the Republican Party's long held values of spending restraint and fiscal responsibility by spending tax payers money like drunken sailors and being more fiscally irresponsible than the Democrats have ever been. Their claims of cutting our taxes are a crock because what they don't acknowledge is the hidden tax they have foisted on taxpayers in the form of a dollar which has lost 50% of its value since 2002 leading to higher prices for oil and everything else the US imports. The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts together have not offset the tax increase we have seen as the dollar has plummeted in value. Unfortunately few Republicans make this connection otherwise we would throw these so-called Republicans out of office before they have a chance to totally destroy what still remains of TRUE REPUBLICAN economic values. With friends like Bush, Cheney and DeLay et al, we really don't need enemies.

Romney 39%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 19%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 2%

Posted by: claffiteau | January 29, 2008 4:48 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 30
Rudy 18
Huckabee 12
Paul 3

Romney Wins, takes delegate lead. GOP race now simply Romney vs. McCain.

Posted by: stpaulsage | January 29, 2008 4:47 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 29 percent
Giuliani: 24 percent
Romney: 24 percent
Huckabee: 11 percent

Storyline: McCain solidifies lead, gaining the "Big Mo" for Super Tuesday. Giuliani becomes the focal story for days as he wins second based on early ballots, but Romney wins election day ballots. Huckabee vows to soldier on.

Posted by: wmulligan | January 29, 2008 4:47 PM | Report abuse

Romney, 35%
McCain, 32%
Huckabee, 14%
Giuliani, 12%

Chris, I need one of your T-shirts to match the one I won last November (and wear VERY often) from Al Kamen for predicting the correct makeup of the current Congress. Now really, you don't want to have to compete with the free advertising for "In the Loop," do you?

Posted by: dcgrasso1 | January 29, 2008 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Romney 38
McCain 35
Giullianni 16
"On Super Tuesday Republicans will choose the direction of their party"

Posted by: myhojda | January 29, 2008 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 28
Huckabee 20
Guiliani 10
Paul 7

Romney Rules, McCain Drols

Posted by: JWood1 | January 29, 2008 4:42 PM | Report abuse

GOP:
McCain 30.5
Romney: 29
Giuliani: 23.5
Hucakbee: 10
Paul: 7

DEM:
Clinton 49
Obama 35
Edwards 16

Posted by: Jeef690 | January 29, 2008 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 14%
other 4%

Posted by: lnotting | January 29, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Sorry- posted this on the wrong entry--

Romney 34
McCain 32
Hizzonor 18

Storyline- Romney/McCain head to "Plain Old Tuesday" in tight battle- funds low for McCain. Giuliani bows out, blames the New York Times for his disastrous campaign-heads to Arizona to cheer on "his" Giants in the Super Bowl.
Sub-Storyline- Hillary claims Victory! Wants delegates seated- "Its not my fault Obama ignored Florida! You can't win the general election without campaigning in Florida!"


Posted by: DAVIETERP | January 29, 2008 4:34 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 31
Guiliani 15
Huckabee 15
Paul 6

Clinton 45
Obama 40
Edwards 15

McCain has a Sunshine Glow Going into Feb.5, Guiliani Looks Ghostly

Obama Isn't As Far Behind Hillary As She Thinks He Is

Posted by: goodwater1 | January 29, 2008 4:28 PM | Report abuse

McCain 29
Romney 27
Giuliani 22

Posted by: yank1082 | January 29, 2008 4:23 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 34%
Romney: 31%
Guiliani: 14%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 4%

Guiliani out of race as Florida rains on his parade; nothing but sunshine for McCain as he scores another victory.

Posted by: MikeReynard | January 29, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

1. Mitt Romney: 35%
2. John McCain: 29%
3. Rudy Giuliani: 18%

McCain is unable to win closed Republican primary. Focus on the economy propels Romney to a solid victory and gives him momentum heading into February 5th.

Posted by: will.cromer | January 29, 2008 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Dems
Clinton 53
Obama 39
Edwards 8

Dem contest may actually matter... Clinton claims victory, may try to get the DNC to seat Delegates if Clinton's can't win without them.

Posted by: anthonyjbrady | January 29, 2008 4:16 PM | Report abuse

Romney 30
McCain 28
Giuliani 24
Huckabee 14

Storyline: Exit polls show importance of economic issues helping Romney; Rudy stays alive by beating expectations but limps into Tuesday.

Posted by: billmcg | January 29, 2008 4:16 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 37%
Romney: 35%
Giuliani: 14%
Huckabee: 12%
Paul: 4%

Giuliani's fall is McCain's gain. Despite Romney's close showing, McCain momentum builds. Obama gains nationally, positioning himself even stronger as a "change" candidate opposite McC and HRC.

Posted by: kshe7 | January 29, 2008 4:12 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 34%

Romney - 33%

Giuliani - 17%

Huckabee - 14%

McCain will dominate 2/5; Giuliani will drop out

Posted by: freedom41 | January 29, 2008 4:07 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 33
Romney: 33
Guiliani: 19

Storyline: Fla. Repubs. can't decide between the lesser of two evils as McCain edges Romney in a virtual tie. Guiliani expected to withdraw to avoid a loss in the Big Apple.

Clinton: 51
Obama: 30
Edwards: 17

Posted by: bcurtis | January 29, 2008 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 33.5%
McCain: 32%
Guliani: 16%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 3.5%

Posted by: edveronda | January 29, 2008 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 36%
McCain: 32%
Giuliani: 19%
Huckabee: 9%
Ron Paul: 4%

Giuliani ONLY does well in early voting tally; Some Evangelical support shifts (away from Huckabee) toward Romney to raise him to top. Super Tuesday pits Romney vs. McCain as the two clear frontrunners.

Posted by: ahodes | January 29, 2008 4:02 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 31
Giuliani 16


Crist's organization helps McCain prove he can win without Independents, solidifies frontruner status going to Super Tuesday (as was overwhelmingly named by fix readers). Giuliani third place finish isn't enough to keep him going and his departure helps McCain by clearing the field in NY,NJ etc.

Posted by: anthonyjbrady | January 29, 2008 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 35
McCain: 30
Giuliani: 15
Huckabee: 13
Paul: 6
Other: 1

Romney wins, heads into Super Tuesday with a wind at his back. McCain, again, fails to wins amongst Republicans. Giuliani, largely a media creation, never really had a chance.

For perspective, even if Giuliani manages to make it to 15% in Florida (questionable), he has spent well over $40 million to garner an average 5.29% of the vote in the first 7 states. Bottom line: Rudy Giuliani, not Romney, is the Steve Forbes of 2008.

Democrats:

Major surge in the last few days for Obama; Clinton fails to break 50%.

Clinton: 48
Obama: 38
Edwards: 14

Posted by: mschmidt73 | January 29, 2008 4:01 PM | Report abuse

McCain- 45%
Romney- 30%
Huckabee- 15%
Guiliani-10%

Rudy blames 9/11 for his primary loss. Hires Isaiah Thomas to find a winning strategy.

Posted by: iaschwartz | January 29, 2008 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36.2%
McCain 32.5%
Giuliani 13.5%
Huckabee 12.7%
Paul 3.8%

Romney wins Florida with economic concerns swaying voters

Posted by: kermitjoe | January 29, 2008 3:53 PM | Report abuse

1. McCain 31%
2. Romney 29%
3. Giuliani 22%
4. Huckabee 14%
5. Paul 4%

Close win for McCain makes him the Super Tuesday frontrunner. Will Giuliani drop out?

Posted by: matthew_butler | January 29, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36 %
McCain 32 %
Huckabee 16 %
Giuliani 11 %

Romney, Florida´s comeback kid.

Posted by: martin.tollen | January 29, 2008 3:51 PM | Report abuse

1. McCain 31%
2. Romney 29%
3. Giuliani 22%
4. Huckabee 14%
5. Paul 4%

Close win for McCain makes him the Super Tuesday frontrunner. Will Giuliani drop out?

Posted by: matthew_butler | January 29, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Romney 29%

Guiliani 24%
MCain 24%

Mayor McCheese surge shocks the field and delivers a Big Mac attack!

Huck-a-bust!

Posted by: youcrew | January 29, 2008 3:50 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 33%
Romney: 31%
Giuliani: 18%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 4%

-McCain Gives Another Boring Victory Speech;

-Romney Takes Another Silver;

-Giuliani Spends a Couple of Days with Judith contemplating his future before dropping out

-Pawlenty prepares to be Vice Presidential running mate.

Posted by: ATinjum | January 29, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36%
Romney 32%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%

Headline GOP: Does McCain's Win in Florida lock up the nomination?

Headline Dems: How does Kennedy's endorsement affect the race?

Posted by: f_krueger | January 29, 2008 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Headline: "It's the Economy, Stupid!"

Posted by: cybridge | January 29, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 33
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 16
Paul 4

Posted by: mikehoffman82 | January 29, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 26%
Giuliani 19%

I'm new to this m'larky living across the pond so to speak so I've no idea whether that'll be close. I've never followed the race for the White House before and I have to say it's fascinating. However, I do have a question about the Post's coverage and it's this: What happened to your columnist Des Moines? He was writing virtually every day leading up to the Iowa Caucus and not a word since. Did he get the chop for predicting a big win for HRC?

Your headline for tomorrow (if you were a tabloid in the UK) would be: "Not ruddi good enough" (though something may be lost in the translation).

Posted by: dballagher | January 29, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Headline: "It's the Economy, Stupid!"

Posted by: cybridge | January 29, 2008 3:44 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Headline: "It's the Economy, Stupid!"

Posted by: cybridge | January 29, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Romney 37%
McCain 33%
Guiliani 14%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

Posted by: davidpaulmann | January 29, 2008 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 34
McCain: 32
Giuliani: 17

Headline: "Romney, Clinton Gain Momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Giuliani disappoints; will he endorse McCain?"

Posted by: ryan.crowley | January 29, 2008 3:35 PM | Report abuse

Rudy 29%
McCain 25%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 4%

Posted by: a_feroz | January 29, 2008 3:32 PM | Report abuse

Storyline for my post above: McCain finally wins a plurality of Republican voters, all candidates vow to fight on to Super Tuesday, including Giuliani, whose candidacy looks as good as over.

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 29, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 32
Guiliani 19
Huckabee 28
Paul 6

Guiliani not to move to the White House but considers a 5 bedroom Coral one in Boca.

Posted by: giantpacificoctopus | January 29, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%

Story: McCain finally wins a closed primary and is extremely well-positioned for Super Tuesday. Giuliani's effectively done and Romney vows to fight on, looking to spend his time/money in delegate-rich Feb. 5th states.

Posted by: mg_the_slugger | January 29, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 14%
Paul 4%

Posted by: jimoneill50 | January 29, 2008 3:28 PM | Report abuse

McCain----31
Romney----29
Giuliani--18
Huckabee--16
Paul-------6

Posted by: vintage51 | January 29, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35.4
Romney 31.8
Huckabee 14.9
Guiliani 13.3
Paul 4.6


McCain romps over Romney, Mayor of 9-11 stymied by 1-29, Huck positioned for veep.

Posted by: optimyst | January 29, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

Romney 37
McCain 33
Giuliani 21

Storyline: Romney's near victory over McCain with Giuliani's embarrassing third place showing, means that going into super tuesday the republican race has no clear frontrunner. However, the republican has narrowed to just two contenders. With Mccain still underperforming with registered republicans, and most primaries on super tuesday closed, can he make up the difference between now and then?

Posted by: thescuspeaks | January 29, 2008 3:24 PM | Report abuse

Giuliani 28%
Romney 27%
McCain 26%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 3%

"Giuliani Gets out from under the Guillotine. Huckabee Hemorrhages. Romney Requests Radio/TV Refunds. McCain's Moderate Maneuvering Misses Mark."

Alliteration, win me a T-shirt!

I realize I'm way out on the weeds predicting a Rudy win. But I want one and some non-poll data support it. People could remember why they picked him the most by far in 2007 national and Florida polls. Voters all want security and competent crisis management; they choose Rudy when they aren't distracted by other campaigns' hype.

The absentee ballots just might hold a treasure trove of votes for him. It makes sense. Abstentee ballots were cast when he was polling better.

I believe this primary's an open one, so Dem and independent voters can vote on Republican delegates rather than a Democratic beauty contest. That favors Rudy and McCain. BTW do pollsters poll only Republicans? I think the tendency to cross parties can really foul up an otherwise good poll and Rudy could benefit from effects difficult to measure. R's who vote today may well prefer Romney or McCain to Rudy. But I's are likely to prefer Rudy to others (even McCain, if the latest feud/tax proposal news takes root) and may not be polled where as D's who are polled are likely to hate Rudy but not 'lower' themselves to vote in an R primary.

McCain and Romney have been feuding lately. That often works to the detriment of the two guys fighting and to the benefit of the third place bystander (In 2004 that would be Dean v. Gebhardt benefitting Kerry in Iowa.) If 10% of voters react that way, and the remainder do what polls say, Rudy can win.

Rudy's tax plan makes him just enough of a "true conservative" in contrast to McCain. Advantage Rudy.

I want this outcome, I tell you, and it's not that terribly illogical.

Posted by: angrydoug1 | January 29, 2008 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Ooops, I need to correct mine to account for Ron Paul:

McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

BTW, it's a shame that 5% in New Hampshire, 3% in South Carolina, and 1% in Florida are going to make McCain the presumptive nominee and effectively end the race for the GOP nomination. I guess size doesn't really matter after all, hunh?

http://commenterry.blogs.com

Posted by: terrymitchell | January 29, 2008 3:19 PM | Report abuse

McCain 40%
Romney 32%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 4%

Straight Talk Express plows over everyone.

Posted by: jessicalemke | January 29, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 36
Romney - 28
Giuliani - 18
Paul - 9
Huckabee - 8

Headline: Rudy's a Goner!

Posted by: jobie | January 29, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 34%
Huckabee 13%
Giuliani 12%

Media still calls is a Victory for McCain and Huckabee.

Posted by: brienlson13 | January 29, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Romney 28
McCain 24
Rudy 22
Huck 18
Paul 8

Early voting propels Rudy to close third-place finish. Republican field completely wide open going into Super Tuesday.

Posted by: ravishah516 | January 29, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 3%

Crist, Martinez Put McCain over the top.

Posted by: jbritt3 | January 29, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 35
Romney - 34
Huckabee - 13
Giuliani - 12
Other - 6

Storyline: A Virtual Tie for First & Second Place

Posted by: femalenick | January 29, 2008 3:11 PM | Report abuse

Okay, here's mine:

McCain 35%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 14%

Posted by: terrymitchell | January 29, 2008 3:09 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36
Romney 36
Huckabee 13

Storyline - Too close to call, McCain and Romney decide to have a duel to determine the nomination, McCain kills Romney but goes to prison. Thompson gets back in the race.

Posted by: donttreadonme | January 29, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Senator McCain 30.1
Governor Romney 30
Mayor Guiliani 18
Governor Huckabee 15
Rep. Paul 2

McCain Edges Romney; Rematch Set on TUESDAY, TUESDAY, TUESDAY--Monster Primary!
Guiliani Propelled By Early Balloting, Still Exits Early

Posted by: simonelli | January 29, 2008 3:00 PM | Report abuse

McCain 37
Romney 34
Giuliani 15
Huckabee 10
Paul 4

McCain has momentum; RG expected to endorse McCain on Wednesday; Romney vows to continue his campaign.

Posted by: brs3f | January 29, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

McC 32%
WMR 30%
RG 18%
MDH 14%
RP 5%

Two man race continues into Super Tuesday;
RG expected to drop out and endorse McC.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | January 29, 2008 2:46 PM | Report abuse

The results will undoubtedly be:

McCain: 37%
Romney: 34%
Huckabee: 16%
Giuliani: 11%
Paul: 2%

Headline: McCain wins Squeaker, Media Celebrates

Posted by: gbb14 | January 29, 2008 2:44 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 33
Giuilani 15
Huckabee 14
Paul 4

Headline: Veteran McCain Outduels Rival Romney
Subheading 1: For Crist's Sakes, Endorsements DO Count
Caption with Picture: MittMobile Heads West on (Expensive) Fumes

Posted by: GoodDad5 | January 29, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 33%
Guiliani 17%
Huckabee 16%

Headline: Romney squeaks by with a win. GOP contest between McCain and Romney remains wide open. Guiliani joins Fred Thompson in seeing if there is some way to make guest appearances on Law and Order.

Posted by: mustangs1997 | January 29, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 34%
Romney: 33%
Rudy: 15%
Huck: 13%

Storyline: Geezers & vets lift McCain. GOP cockfight continues.

Posted by: ssomo | January 29, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 7%
Others (Tancredo Thompson et al) 4%

Headline... GOP Still a Tossup headed to Super Tuesday/Giuliani on Life Support dials 9-11

Posted by: reganfla | January 29, 2008 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Who do you predict will win the Florida Republican Presidential Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1645

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Who do you predict will win the Florida Democratic Presidential Primary?


http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1648

.

Posted by: PollM | January 29, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 5%

Story: Late endorsements by Crist and Martinez propel McCain to victory and cement his role as favorite of the Republican establishment; Giuliani drops out and endorses McCain.

Posted by: mesondk | January 29, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

McCain 37
Romney 32
Guiliani 13
Huckabee 12
Paul 6

Headline - McCain has McMentum into Supertuesday. Guiliani out

Dems-
Clinton - 51
Obama - 37
Edwards - 12

Headline - Clinton wins symbolic victory. Race even heading into Supertuesday.

Roger wins the greatest prize of all, the treasured Fix t-shirt, sought by all fans of the line.

Posted by: rogerpollitt | January 29, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 40%
McCain: 38%
Huckabee: 12%

Photo-Finish: Romney by a Well-Coiffed Nose!

Posted by: judgeccrater | January 29, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Romney 31%
McCain 28%
Huckabee 23%

Romney wins and Huckabee exceeds expectations, republican race still wide open heading into Tsunami Tuesday.

Posted by: EricLopez1067 | January 29, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Republicans:

35% John McCain
33% Mitt Romney
15% Mike Huckabee
14% Rudy Giuliani
3% Ron Paul

Democrats:

50% Hillary Clinton
41% Barack Obama
9% John Edwards

Storyline:

"McCain eeks out another win as Giuliani finishes fourth; Rudy may drop out before an embarrassing loss in New York next week. Hillary's win tarnished by stronger Obama showing than polls predicted, and by another tasteless comment from Bill.

Posted by: mustafa.hirji | January 29, 2008 2:32 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36
McCain 31
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 14
Paul 5

Economy trumps all. Romney wins by a decent margin. Giuliani does as well as he ever does.

Posted by: ponsheki | January 29, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

I grew up in Florida. I live in Montana now, so you can guess how I feel about my home state.

They'll vote for the most superficial image, every single time.

Romney 37
McCain 33
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 12
Paul 3

Giuliani out. Romney expected to win the most delegates on Feb 5, but no one knows for sure. Rumors of Huckabee throwing his support behind McCain, but this never materializes (at least not before Feb 5). Unusually high number of votes in Palm Beach County for Pat Buchanan.

Posted by: roxythedog | January 29, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse


Romney: 34.5
McCain: 31.6
Guiliani: 15.5
Huckabust:12.9
Paul: 5.5

Storyline: Romney has some weight after all. Guiliani rumors abound that he will back Romney in a surprise move.

Posted by: SkinsDiesel | January 29, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 30%
McCain: 29%
Giuliani: 22%

Storyline: McCain / Romney to head into nasty Super Duper Tuesday battle; Rudy does better than expected with the help of early voters and absentees, but still decides to drop.

Posted by: meanwilliegrind | January 29, 2008 2:28 PM | Report abuse

R:

Romney 32
McCain 31
Giuliani 18
Huckabee 16
Paul 3

D:
Clinton 52
Obama 36
Edwards 12

Posted by: bfu | January 29, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34.2
McCain 34.1
Rudy 22

Headline: Another late night in Florida -- race to close to call.

Posted by: markmalbo | January 29, 2008 2:27 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 31
Giuliani 15

Storyline: McCain steams toward Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday is Romney's last stand. Rudy becomes a non-factor. Dems: Clinton's win goes just into double digits.

Posted by: jugador615 | January 29, 2008 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 31
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 14
Paul 4

Floridians teach America that the more you get know Giuliani, the less you want to know him. Romney pulls out a squeaker to set up a chaotic Super Tuesday.

Posted by: psears2 | January 29, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38
Romney 30
Guliani 9

Story line: Evangelicals vote for McCain (sensing he's only one who can win general election). Guiliani retreats to Everglades.

Posted by: bisson | January 29, 2008 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Alas, the Mighty Mighty Mittster (as wags call him up here in Boston) will not be the mightiest on this day... But Giuliani's get-out-the-send-'em-in-early-vote efforts will allow him to beat Huckabee. That's a victory of sorts, right? Hmmm... Time for the Huckster to start thinking about life as a VEEP to be.

McCain 33
Romney 28
Giuliani 18
Huckabee 16
Paul 5

Posted by: rafeyjake | January 29, 2008 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Giuliani - 28
McCain - 26
Romney - 24
Huckabee - 18
Paul - 4

Posted by: leonard | January 29, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Romney 31.2
McCain 30.8
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 15
Paul 5

Race is too close to call as of press time with Romney holding slight lead. Republicans still unsure McCain's their man.

Posted by: mark.kelly | January 29, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 34 percent
Romney: 32 percent
Giuliani: 13 percent
Huckabee: 13 percent
Paul: 5 percent

McCain has his day in the Sun. Tough decisions lie ahead for Romney campaign; An easier one for Giuliani

Posted by: HokiePaul | January 29, 2008 2:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 37%
Romney - 33%
Guiliani - 13%
Huck - 13%
Paul - 4%

Storyline - Crist endorsement propels late deciders and Guilini supporters to McCain...McCain clear frontrunner. Is McCain considering Crist for the VP slot? Subplot - Crist better looking than Romney?

Posted by: dowd001 | January 29, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33.3%
McCain 33.2%
Huckabee 26.7%
Paul 19%
Giuliani 3%

Storyline: Hanging chads and James Baker. Supreme Court confused about who to support. Giuliani appeals to Alito and Scalia for "do-over" and the the whole thing drags until March.

Oh, and asteckler needs to repeat fourth grade and focus on percentages.

Size medium please!

Posted by: asteckler | January 29, 2008 2:18 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 30%
Romney - 29%
Giuliani - 18%

Storyline: The race is too close to call and goes late into the night. McCain manages to sqeak it out against Romney and shows that he can win in a closed Republican primary - his position as the frontrunner is cemented, and it's the beginning of the end for Romney (although he shows no plans of dropping out anytime soon). Giuliani is out - people want a leader who is willing to fight everywhere rather than watch others do it.

Posted by: rsears1983 | January 29, 2008 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32%
McCain 30%
Giuliani 25%

Romney scores mixed victory. Under rules, he captures all the delegates and no one can pooh-pooh his lead in that count. But Giuliani's big number was largely supplied by absentee voters who - polling showed -would haved voted for McCain if they had waited longer, or would have strongly had him as their second choice. The message is clear to the GOP leaders: if you want to win in November, you need to go with a moderate, and McCain (while less moderate than Rudy) is the best bet to win.

Posted by: jaysalomon | January 29, 2008 2:15 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 32
Guiliani 21
Huckabee 10
Paul 4

Posted by: neduggin | January 29, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 15%
Guiliani 12%

Romney clear front runner. Huckabee drops out endorses Romney who will pick him for VP. Huckabee leader going into 2012 race.

Posted by: dganderson13 | January 29, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 31
Giuliani 18
Huckabee 11
Paul 4

Storyline: McCain definitely front-runner now. War with Iran provisionally pencilled-in for May 2009.

Posted by: bourassa1 | January 29, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain- 34%
Giuliani- 13%
Huckabee- 10%

Romney eeks out a win to prolong an uncertain campaign into super tuesday. Independents find their way into the primary voting booths enough to keep McCain close.

Posted by: viola061985 | January 29, 2008 2:11 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 20%

McCain no longer a GOPrisoner of War
Romney spends the gold but gets the silver
Giuliani gets a "Rude(y)" awakening;

Posted by: CurtLader | January 29, 2008 2:10 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 30
Giuliani 16

Super Tuesday battle is set between Romney and McCain as Giuliani bows out.

Posted by: clarktaylor9 | January 29, 2008 2:08 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32%
McCain 29%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 7%

Romney wins with business creds, McCain gains support from Republican base voters, Giuliani probably won't last past Super Tuesday, Huckabee having trouble with moderates

Posted by: montypython00 | January 29, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 2%

Storyline: Quickly all-but-annointed as the nominee and flushed with vindication, McCain thinks big and outside the box and holds secret meetings with John Kerry to discuss the vice-presidency. When word leaks out, all hell breaks loose and the prospect of the ultimate pundit's fantasy, a brokered convention, fans the flames of the story and revives Romney all the way to Minnesota.

Posted by: ultimattfrisbee | January 29, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Giuliani 31%
Romney 26%
McCain 23%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%
Thompson (because of early votes / absentees) 2%

Storyline: "Giuliani's juggernaut prevails much to Romney's and McCain's chagrin; Meanwhile, the pollsters and pundits run to the unemployment office crying, screaming, and begging for mercy."

Posted by: stephen.dreikorn | January 29, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Romney - 37
McCain - 30
Huckabee - 14
Paul - 9
Guiliani - 8

Story line: It's the economy, stupid. Romney finally finds a winning message.

Big surprise: Ron Paul knocks Guiliani into 5th place. Again.

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 29, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 32
Huckabee 16
Giuliani 14


Clinton 49
Obama 35
Edwards 14


McCain wins without independents, but with old folks.

Clinton wishes she hadn't asked for FL delegates to be seated

Posted by: pcjnyc | January 29, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

romney 31
mccain 28
giuliani 25

giuliani's late to the party, but far from out of it with a solid 3rd place finish. super tuesday becomes a battle royale where anything could happen.

Posted by: dclive1776 | January 29, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Giuliani 28%
Romney 26%
McCain 25%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 6%

Storyline:

America's Mayor upsets the polls and proves that the people of America aren't just sheep (by not ignorantly voting based on the media hype) but in fact care about the issues. Giuliani heads to Super Tuesday with 58 delegates and the momentum needed to win.

Posted by: DenVinBer1 | January 29, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Romney -- 36%
McCain -- 33%
Huckabee -- 17%
Giuliani -- 11%

Storyline: Rudy's Florida strategy fails miserably, whispers begin that he'll pull out before Feb. 5.

Posted by: acasilaco | January 29, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

R's

Romney: 35
McCain: 32
Rudy: 24

Storyline: Romney wins by a surprising amount. No one drops out after the race on the R side.

D's

Clinton: 50
Obama: 36
Edwards: 14

Storyline: Clinton wins by a lot in a race no one else was running. Media makes this a bigger deal than it is.

Posted by: rpy1 | January 29, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

32-Romney
30-McCain
15-Huck

story: Huck delivers knock-out punch to Rudy. Full Romney recovery from early set-backs.

1/30: St Johns 73, Gtown 65

Posted by: rmcauliffe | January 29, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Romney 25%
McCain 20%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 1%
and ...
Gore 29%

Storyline: GOP stores primary ballots in Katherine Harris' condo, unwittingly mixing them with uncounted 2000 election ballots. US Supreme Court rules Jeb Bush the winner.

Posted by: soregan | January 29, 2008 1:59 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 29
Giuliani 21

Headline: Habemus McCain - White smoke over Florida

Posted by: jeanmonnet | January 29, 2008 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 34%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 2%

Romney gives stump speeches in French, put over the top by surprisingly large vote from naturalized French retirees.

Posted by: accelan | January 29, 2008 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 31%
Guilliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%
Thompson 1% (from absentee ballots)

Completely spun headlines:

"Mormon's, His father, and now his wallet keep Romney in the race."

Of course, they'll never give him credit for winning anything...

Posted by: robertmeyers0513 | January 29, 2008 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 34%
McCain: 31%
Giuliani: 15%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 5%


Story: What fallout will Giuliani dropout have for Super Tuesday?

Posted by: actanew | January 29, 2008 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 38
McCain: 32
Huckabee: 14
Giuliani: 13
Paul: 3

Story Line: Voters throw off worries about church succession to worship Mitt

Posted by: bigolpoofter | January 29, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

Headline: Mystery instruction lead pollworkers to allow independents to vote for McCain.

Posted by: Cornell1984 | January 29, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN 31%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 19%
Giuliani 18%
Paul 2%

Giuliani denies ever saying that Florida was crucial, instead claims that he had always intended to stake his campaign on New York. McCain becomes presumtive leader.

CLINTON 42%
Obama 39%
Edwards 18%

Clinton embarrassed when, despite breaking the rules by semi-campaigning there, she BARELY beats a guy who didn't visit Florida (She nonetheless spins this as a plus because she "beat Obama by a whole three points!!!") The delegates end up counting at the convention because nobody wants to make Florida angry right before an election.

Posted by: pvranic | January 29, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 28
McCain 25
Huckabee: 15

Huckabee pulls ahead of Guilliani, effectively ending Rudy's campaign. Romney upsets McCain and heads into super tuesday with momentum (unfortunately).

Posted by: maaraj | January 29, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35.4%
McCain 35.1%
Giuliani 14.8%
Huckabee 10.5%
Paul 4.2%

Storyline: Judi (sorry...I mean Judith) throws a FIT when she realizes she'll never get to play with the WH China collection.

Posted by: bdunbar | January 29, 2008 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Sun-sentinel has a story about independents being allowed to vote for McCain. This is a violation of state election law. It is a closed primary, and party affiliation must be declared 29 days before the election. Romney independents were not given ballots, only McCain. Poll workers were quoted as saying "those are our instructions". Seems like Governor Crist and John McCain, not caring about the laws of our land or the state of Florida, are rigging this election. Can't wait for the investigation afterwards. I wonder why the WaPo isn't reporting on this election irregularity.

Posted by: Cornell1984 | January 29, 2008 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 33
Guliani 15
Huckabee 10

Guliani over and out, Romeny wins in the most unconvincing way possible. McCain still the front runner.

Posted by: dhg1 | January 29, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 37%
Romney - 29%
Huckabee - 14%
Giuliani - 12%
Paul - 6%
Thompson - 2%

Storyline: "McCain glowing from Sunshine State victory, now big favorite to win nomination"

Clinton - 39%
Obama - 34%
Edwards - 9%

Storyline: "Obama nearly wins without even campaigning"

Posted by: jkopechek | January 29, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 40%
McCain: 25%
Giuliani: 20%

"Romney wins big in Florida with strong Republican support. Momentum shifts in his direction. Giuliani disappoints with a third place showing, but presses on to February 5th, where he'll attempt to build a delegate base in New York, California and New Jersey. Chris Cillizza's contest winners prove more accurate than polls once again."

Posted by: chocoguy0 | January 29, 2008 1:49 PM | Report abuse

Romney 31
McCain 29
Giuliani 20
Huckabee 15
Other 5

Storyline:
Giuliani hangs hopes on a big finish in NY after a disappointing third place finish. Romney and McCain are the top contenders moving into Super Tuesday. The race remains wide open.

Posted by: Richmond_Ace | January 29, 2008 1:47 PM | Report abuse

McCain 45%
Romney 30%
Giuliani 25%
Story line: Rudy put all of his eggs in one basket and dropped the basket. Omelet, anyone?

Posted by: cleverboots2007 | January 29, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 12%

Giuliani devastated by fourth place finish, drops out of race. McCain wins big among veterans, but siphons off enough fiscal conservatives to beat Romney.

Posted by: jwright012 | January 29, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

http://www.elephantbiz.com/2008/01/the_biz_predictions_florida.html

Republicans
McCain 38%
Romney 32
Giuliani 16

Story: "Although it was a hard fought race, there are no points for second place. Mitt Romney, who outspent the field by millions, comes away with no delegates. Giuliani sings his swan song."

JX
ElephantBiz.com

Posted by: jx | January 29, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Romney 37%
McCain 31%
Rudy 9-11%

The real winner of course will be the Democratic Party.

Posted by: seli0052 | January 29, 2008 1:43 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34%
Romney 31%
Guiliani 19%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 6%

Posted by: dppilot | January 29, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 33%
Huckabee 17%
Giuliani 13%

Giuliani drops out to avoid further embarrassment in NY, McCain proves he's not just viable in open primaries. Conservative right begins to galvanize behind Romney.

Posted by: jallenba | January 29, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 33
Huckabee 20
Guilini 12
Other 1
Guiliani Sunk; Romney-McCain battle heads into Super Tuesday Undecided

Cynic's Version: McCain wins Big

Posted by: ctown_woody | January 29, 2008 1:41 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 37
Romney: 35
Huckabee: 13
Guiliani: 11
Paul: 4

McCain edges out Romney amongst Cubans and elderly; race is so close to deny McCain presumptive front-runner status vis-a-vis Romney. Guiliani drops out in devastating fourth place showing, suggests that the terrorists whom he defeated on 9-11 have made a comeback. Huckabee remains in the race till Super Tuesday despite third place finish.

Posted by: muaddib_7 | January 29, 2008 1:41 PM | Report abuse

ROMNEY 33%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 12%
Paul 4%

Posted by: ckriva2002 | January 29, 2008 1:39 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35
Romney: 34
Giuliani: 14
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 4

Storyline:
Still a very tight race between the front two, but McCain continues to win over conservative republicans and puts himself in good shape to do well in delegate-rich Super (Duper) Tuesday; Huckabee seriously considers whose VP he'd like to be and has Chuck Norris go after the other.

Alt Storyine:
CC and colleagues decide not to hold state-by-state predictions for next tuesday, as early results suggest it will take them the next 4 weeks to scroll through all of the data from today's predictions, including the recount necessitated by this being a Florida vote.

Posted by: jhburk | January 29, 2008 1:36 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36
Romney 33
Guliani 16
Huck 11
Paul 4

The story is that "most likely to beat Dems" polls as the most determative factor, in Florida and beyond.

Posted by: davidrocker | January 29, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 31
Giuliani 20
Huck 11
Paul 4

Storyline: Romney takes Florida, McCain still can't seem to win a closed Republican primary. Giuliani does better than expected (due to votes cast in advance?) but still faces pressure to abandon the race after a third place finish.

Posted by: zayddohrn | January 29, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 12%
Huckabee 12%

Headlines: John decks Mitt, Rudy on life support, Mike praying for them all

Posted by: greg_patterson | January 29, 2008 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Gov. Crist and Sen. Martinez get it wrong. McCain too liberal for Floridians. Romney 38% McCain 35&

Posted by: dlgriz | January 29, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 34%
Romney: 30%
Giuliani: 17%

Giuliani finally calls it quits after a third-place finish in his firewall state.

Posted by: ManUnitdFan | January 29, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 34.5
Romney: 34.2
Huckabee: 13
Giuliani: 12

After a late night, McCain declared the winner; Huckabee puts the final nail in Guiliani campaign's coffin.

Posted by: fourhourelection | January 29, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 28
Giuliani 19

Romney wins. McCain explodes. Giuliani concedes. Huckabee has the staple removed from his gut and heads with his family to the cracker barrel to relive the good ol' days.

Posted by: anjos | January 29, 2008 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 32
Guiliani 20
Hucks 10
Paul 4

Oh, I forgot the story line in my previous post. Story is: "McCain benefits from Crist endorsement, but not enough. Rudy lives another day to fight on in New York and elsewhere on February 5."

Posted by: andrewgerst | January 29, 2008 1:32 PM | Report abuse

romney 36
mccain 30
Rudy G 20

early voting helps rudy, but he's done, romney's money, jeb bush machine and ceo experience deliver the night for him, 2 man race in stupid tuesday next week. crashing of the mccain wave helps huckabee in southern states where mccain is elading/tied.

dems
hillary: does it matter, no one competed?
obama: how am i supposed to campaign when i can't visit the state, or run ads?
edwards: i'm still relevent, really. i had a haircut recently, anyone want to comment about that?

result: hillary claims win, democracy loses due to stupid dnc decision, frontloading, republican legislature, gov charlie crist, etc etc.

Posted by: tgporo12 | January 29, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 30
Giuliani: 29
Romney: 26
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 3

Line #1 = Rudy surpasses all expectations. Gets to play on Super Tuesday.

Line #2 = McCain wins a "close(d)" one. Likely to win it all on Super Tuesday

Posted by: cbrinckerhoff | January 29, 2008 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Mac attack: 37%
Da Mitt: 33%
Mr. 9/11: 15%
Huckabee Huckabee Huckabee (more fun to say three times): 10%
Ron "I'm-so-far-to-the-right-I'm-coming-back-around-on-the-left" Paul: 5%

Storyline: Edwards is right, it's John McCain (and Edwards gets the most press he's had in two weeks). Mitt vows to keep fighting through super Tuesday. 9/11 bows out of the race.

Posted by: erikpdumont | January 29, 2008 1:30 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34.5%
Romney 32.5%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 3%

Huckabee does better than Giuliani in votes cast today, but Giuliani edges him out on the strength of early balloting. On-the-fence Rudy voters break for McCain as their candidate's chances fade, but many already locked in their vote for Giuliani. McCain wins on high turnout among older voters.

Posted by: jared | January 29, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

McCain 32
Romney 31.5
Giuliani 19

But we don't know all this until they count the abentee ballots.

Posted by: jane.lockhart | January 29, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35

McCain 31

Giuliani 18

Huckabee 16

Romney rallies the right in Florida victory.

Posted by: caribouproject | January 29, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Big story is Huckabee finishing in the 20's. His speech in Missouri gets great coverage, and it's a homerun. The gaggle of national reporters look to the South and figure out that Huckabee's has a clear advantage over the other two. McCain and Romney call him a tax and spend liberal, finally getting the two of them to agree on something. Somebody at the Post finally "fixes" the oversight in press coverage and asks one of these guys what he would do as president that is significantly different than Bush. Bill Clinton starts aiming at Bush and Cheney like he should have been doing all along.

Posted by: davidbrowne | January 29, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

ROMNEY: 38%

McCAIN: 35%

GULIANI: 22%

Storyline: Romney wins close victory. Super tuesday sets up a two man republican race. Guliani fear mongering master of 9/11 drops out.

CLINTON: 48%

OBAMA: 45%

Storyline: Obama stuns Clinton by almost upsetting her in a state once thought to be filled with a ground swell of Hillary supporters. Results bodes ill for the Clintons on super tuesday.

Posted by: lumi21us | January 29, 2008 1:26 PM | Report abuse

I predict:

McCain: 37
Romney: 35
Guiliani: 13
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 3

...and none of these quits the race tonight.

Posted by: pdg4 | January 29, 2008 1:26 PM | Report abuse

Obama 44%
Clinton 40%
Edwards 16%

As before, larger then expected turnout will nullify the poll.

Posted by: rex | January 29, 2008 1:25 PM | Report abuse

McCain 31
Romney 30
Paul 13
Giuliani 12
Huckabee 12

With web stats like these, I see Ron Paul doing well, especially with the 19-29 year olds, MSM (main stream media) aside:
http://ronpaul.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=39

Posted by: davidmwe | January 29, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

Story: McCain edges out Romney; now favored for nomination. Guiliani to make a "major announcement" on Wednesday (will ultimately drop out and enorse McCain). Huckabee may not have funds to continue.

Posted by: billbolducinmaine | January 29, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Giuliani 30
McCain 29
Romney 27

Lets not forget all the early voting in Florida where Giuliani most likely was passing out ballots way before the McCain "surge" and Romney's last minute media blitz.

Posted by: tyler_0905 | January 29, 2008 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Romney 37%
McCain 35%
Huckabee 13%
Guiliani 11%
Paul 4%

Humiliating end for Guiliani.

Posted by: tetorrance | January 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain 41%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 11%
Ron Paul 5%
Other 1%

Storyline: Popular governor Crist's late endorsement carries McCain to convinving, larger-than-expected victory. McCain now considered somewhere between clear frontrunner and presumptive nominee, though Romney insists that he will carry Super Tuesday. Rush Limbaugh hospitalized with heart trouble.

Clinton 46%
Obama 43%
Edwards 11%

Storyline: In the delegate-less but still interesting race everyone forgot (lookin' at you, Cillizza), Clinton wins and declares she has regained the momentum. However, her smaller-than-expected margin suggests the toll of Obama's lopsided SC win and the Kennedy endorsement.

Posted by: theophilus | January 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 30
Giuliani 15
Huckahasbeen 12
Paul 8

Storyline: McCain benefits greatly from FL all-star endorsements, and upsets Romney. Romney, so as not to appear upset, swoons over another silver. Giuliani exits, McCain benefits from said exit, and runs away with nomination.

Posted by: RightWingHawk83 | January 29, 2008 1:18 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%

Huckabee drops out...Rudy's still thinking.

Posted by: soccerman | January 29, 2008 1:17 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34.3
Romney 34.1
Huckabee 12
Guiliani 10

Republicans fear Islamofacism more than they fear the economy.

Posted by: duane_wright48 | January 29, 2008 1:17 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35 percent
Giuliani: 28 percent
Romney: 24 percent
Huckabee: 11 percent
Paul: 2 percent

People are calling for change and McCain shows that he's the man to beat. Guiliani's strategy fails. He needs a miracle to move into the lead now. Romney makes some annoying reference to an olympic medal.

Posted by: burkemic99 | January 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 34%
Huckabee 13%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 6%

A sad-faced Rudy abandons his bid, and the big stories will be women and in-person voters breaking for McCain, but conservatives and persons worried about the economy going for Mitt. Mitt suddenly becomes something of a front-runner.

Posted by: jeenaone | January 29, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35%
Romney: 34%
Guiliani: 16%

Story: Late endorsements push McCain by Romney in a squeaker. The firewall collapses ... what's next for Rudy?


Posted by: matlock069 | January 29, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 34
Romney: 32
Huckabee: 15
Giulani: 13

Storyline: Huckabee and Giulani supporters continue to flee their candidates and get behind moderate McCain or conservative Romney, who are more likely to win. This helps Romney more than McCain, but not enough.

Posted by: usedto | January 29, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33%
Mittens 30%
Rudy 18%
Huck 9%
Paul 3%
Fred (!) 2%

Posted by: mhatter13 | January 29, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

I predict Sen Obama will win the largest number of delegates in Florida, with 0 delegates, closely followed by Sen Clinton with 0 delegates, and in a surprise upset Sen Edwards will tie for third with 0 delegates.

Man, that was easy.

Posted by: WillSeattle | January 29, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

Headline: McCain Momentum leaves Romney, Rush Reeling

Sub-Headlines: Giuliani drops out and endorses McCain; Fred Thompson endorses McCain; Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger endorses McCain

Posted by: braveheartdc | January 29, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

M. McCain 35
M. Romney 30
R. Giuliani 15
Hucka(has)been 12
Ron Paul 8

Storyline: with the benefit of two FL all-star endorsement, McCain upsets Romney. Romney, not to be left for dead, swoons about yet another silver medal. Bill Clinton shifts gears - ignores Hillary's 'wonderful' relationship with McCain - and immediately attempts to derail the Straight Talk Express.

Posted by: RightWingHawk83 | January 29, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Who do the makers of the Diebold machines prefer as the GOP nominee? That's who will win.

Posted by: ericp331 | January 29, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 37 %
McCain: 33 %
Giuliani: 15 %
Huckabee: 12 %
Paul: 3 %

McCain slides due to older ladies of Florida believing Mitt is a nice looking boy.

Posted by: johng1 | January 29, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 31
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 15

Romney win creates chaotic Feb. 5 sprint. Giuliani beats Huckabee on early voting, but drops out on Wednesday. Endorses McCain.

Posted by: dpepper | January 29, 2008 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Mitt 34
Mac 32
Mayor 18
Mike 08

Writing on wall for Rev. Mike, sees his social conservative support sliding reluctantly to Romney (as much as they dont like him they really dont like Mac); the mayor leaves his signed baseballs for the press and then gets out... eventually endorses Mac. Mac still alive with impressive poll numbers in California, but its going to be a barn burner.

Clinton gives rally, but press pitches it as kinda sad, sorta like throwing yourself a surprise birthday party

Posted by: fearirony2060 | January 29, 2008 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 34
McCain: 31
Giuliani: 17
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 4
Other: 2

Story: McCain stays strong with veterans and moderates, but late-deciders focus on the economy and swing for Romney.

Posted by: gezi | January 29, 2008 1:07 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 33
Giuliani 14
Huckabee 14
Paul 6

It's just going to be CLOSE. Either 1st/2nd or 3rd/4th is going to be so close we won't know the winner this time tomorrow. But when the smoke clears, McCain wins, Giuliani gets 3rd. The only remaining question is, will Rudy get a false sense of momentum and stay in only to get smoked on Super Tuesday in his homestate?

(Guess: No.)

Posted by: sdytm | January 29, 2008 1:07 PM | Report abuse

McCain 30%
Romney 29%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 5%

Headlines
"McCain edges Romney in hard fought Florida, Giuliani's Florida and Super Tuesday Strategy evaporates."

"senboo"

Posted by: WAPOST4-04 | January 29, 2008 1:06 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 17%
Giuliani 17%

Storyline: McCain solidifies position as GOP frontrunner by winning (by a much larger number than expected) closed primary. Floridians decide they want the canidate that can beat Billary come November. Rudy's campain strategy exposed as a huge blunder (I'm a Large)

Posted by: joshtiralla | January 29, 2008 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Romney- 39%
McCain- 30%
Guiliani- 17%

Posted by: mspiegelman | January 29, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 33
Guilani 14
Huckabee 13
Paul 9

My prediction is that the race goes well into the evening without a winner being "called"... Guilani pulls out but Huckabee stays in playing the "Edwards of the Republican Party"... Paul... well he's just Ron Paul.

Posted by: eamon1916 | January 29, 2008 1:04 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 37%
McCain: 36%
Guiliani: 17%
Huckabee: 10%
Demand for The Fix t-shirts: 100%

Storyline: Romney wins with anti-McCain vote siphoned from Guiliani and Huckabee in the waning hours of the election. WP opens an online "The Fix" store selling t-shirts, coffee mugs, and a home version of the Fix for the whole family to play throughout the primary season.

Posted by: trulywilde66 | January 29, 2008 1:02 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 12%

McCain consolidates position, Rudy poised to drop out.

Posted by: top-gorilla | January 29, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 37%
Romney: 33%
Giuliani: 16%
Huckabee: 9%

Storyline: McCain edges out Romney in Florida; pragmatic Republican base helps him secure front runner status through a win in this closed primary. Giuliani faces tough questions from supporters after disappointing showing.

Posted by: birdie106 | January 29, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36
Romney 31
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 9
Paul 5

No way is Rudy bowing out, no matter how badly he is beaten. Story: He continues to distort reality and project himself as a powerful contender, taking his ego with him to Feb 5.

Posted by: esmerelda123 | January 29, 2008 12:56 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 82% Boring
Romney - 84% Boring
Huckabee - 91% Boring
Giuliani - 72% Boring
These Republicans are just very boring people - they call each other 'liberal' and wonder why their message is not resonating with the voters.
Ohg
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/01/29/boring-republicans-run-a-1994-campaign/

Posted by: glclark4750 | January 29, 2008 12:56 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38
Romney 32
Huckabee 16
Guliani 14

Posted by: bchengwa | January 29, 2008 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 33%
McCain: 32%
Guiliani: 18%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 2%

Top Stories: McCain struggles to win conservatives, Guiliani near exiting the race

Posted by: dkjj | January 29, 2008 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36%
McCain 30%
Rudy 13%

Storyline: Romney surging, McCain receding and Rudy "out of here".

Posted by: isart | January 29, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Romney 36
McCain 32
Huckabee 18

Rudy's grand plan blows up and Romney wins when republicans choose the lesser of two evils. McCain fights on, but can't beat Romney without crossover votes in play.

Posted by: centerc | January 29, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 14%

Bye Rudy! Hillary wins by less than 15 pts in uncontested primary. Romney gives speech invoking Reagan

Posted by: r13dawg | January 29, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: JD | January 29, 2008 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 13%
Paul 5%

Storyline: Romney gains momentum going into Super Tuesday, but doesn't become the leader. No clear front-runner. And, Giuliani's fourth place finish proves his late-start strategy to be the incorrect one.

Posted by: aaronankers | January 29, 2008 12:52 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 22%
Huckabee 12%

Storyline: McCain's win propelled by strong Cuba-American support. Credit given to Crist and Martinez endorsements.

Clinton 51%
Obama 28%
Edwards 15%

Storyline: Record turnout, Hillary wins big with hispanics in South Florida.

Posted by: dmoralestx | January 29, 2008 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Being a democrat, I want Romney to win. But I think The republicans aren't as stupid as they seem, so they'll probably give it to McCain.

Mac 33%
Romney 30%
Rudy 15%
Huck 15%

Posted by: jeffreyklein | January 29, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36
Romney 30
Giuliani 14
Huckabee 14

McCain Sails to another victory, Romney Presses on, Guiliani to drop out.

Posted by: dd1101a | January 29, 2008 12:49 PM | Report abuse

38 McCain
26 Romney
21 Giuliani
11 Huckabee
4 Paul

Guiliani gets larger than expected vote because of early votes that pollsters can't track, but still places third. The undecided, who have been waiting for the GOP blessing, swing in the last days to McCain's camp with the implicit nod from Bush's State of the Union address and Gov. Crist's explicit endorsement.

Posted by: njbeckford | January 29, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35%
McCain 33%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 3%

Size: xl

Storyline: GOP Race Unresolved...Still. Giuliani's Days Numbered.

Posted by: Luker100 | January 29, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Romney 38
Mccain 36
Guiliani 12
Huckabee 10
Paul 4

Story: "Romney wins, GOP race w/o Hizzoner or front runner going into Super Tuesday."

Clinton: 51
Obama:34
Edwards:14

Story: "Clinton, throwing out the rules, grandstands in Florida"

Posted by: nclick | January 29, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35
McCain 32
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 10
Paul 4

Posted by: saufque | January 29, 2008 12:47 PM | Report abuse

McCain 32
Romney 31
Huckabee 12
Rudy 8

Rudy gives victory speech because his plan of loosing each primary has been so successful

Posted by: warneka | January 29, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

McCain 37%
Romney 35%
Huckabee 18%

Storyline: Florida as bellwether for February 5, with GOPers (narrowly) embracing McCain.

Posted by: jennifer | January 29, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

A lot of independents got their registrations changed (temporarily) so they could vote for Hillary or McCain figuring both are the worst choice for their respective party and the "best" choice to unite the opposition.
McCain 34 (gets a boost from the "ex-independent's")
Romney 30 (bought a lot of TV ads but religion is an issue like it or not)
Huckabee 16 (religious "core" votes)
Guiliani 13 (elderly votes) now maybe running to be the running mate.

Good turnout since the real issue for most voters is Amendment 1 (cuts real estate tax). 1 in 10 voted weeks ago. Some polls look deserted this afternoon.

Posted by: wmboyd | January 29, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

34 McCain
30 Romney
22 Huckabee

Rudy is done, McCain, Romney take the two man campaign from streetfight to nationwide warfare

Posted by: aug10morris | January 29, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

McCain 37
Romney 33
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 12

Storyline - McCain emerges as frontrunner for Super Tuesday; Rudy drops out Wednesday morning.

Posted by: alex.abboud | January 29, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33%
McCain 31%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 15%

Romney just edges past, voters show they prefer a CEO to a Senator. America's mayor realises that his love for the nation is, in fact, unrequited. Chuck Norris decides to give up on his political vessel and go it alone with the announcement of his own candidacy.

Posted by: ezschwartz | January 29, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Saw Giuiliani in a Purple States video ... asked about Iraq he recited some Bush talking point with notable lack of conviction and then started to repeat what he had said, the exact phrases a second time, suddenly realized he was saying nothing and people were realizing it, then a big smile and gotta-go, gotta-go. The man is an empty shirt so my guess is that he gets about 10% in Florida.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | January 29, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Romney -- 31%
McCain -- 29%
Guiliani -- 15%
Huckabee -- 15%
Paul -- 10%

Romney humbles McCain to become party favorite. Guiliani mulls departure.

Posted by: scheney | January 29, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

I am predicting another Florida fiasco, with McCain taking the state by less than 1%... a prolonged battle in the courts is not out of the realm of possibility

Guliani and Huckabee are also virtually tied for 3rd, with Huckabee squeeking out a modest advantage

Romney: 32.5 percent
McCain: 33 percent
Giuliani: 13.5 percent
Huckabee: 14.0 percent
Paul: 3.0 percent;

Posted by: spears404 | January 29, 2008 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 18%
Guiliani 16%

Rudy's Straegy is a failure. Romney is the new frontrunner. Rudy to endorse McCain, demonstrating rivals dislike for Romney. GOP splitting over dislike for both. Huckabee presents self as alternative.

Posted by: kahndo | January 29, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

hillary - 5%
not hillary - 95%
storyline - can you beleive any of her promises

Posted by: kingofzouk | January 29, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

guiliani - 99%

Storyline - what do pollsters know?

Posted by: kingofzouk | January 29, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 31
Guiliani 22
Huckabee 10
Paul 3

"McCain edges out Romney; Guiliani does better than expected thanks to early voting"

Posted by: mrassam60 | January 29, 2008 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Romney - 37%
McCain - 32%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee Wannabe - 10%

"After winning Florida Romney shocks the nation by denouncing politics and becoming a cast member on the Bold and the Beautiful!"

Posted by: mjb7249 | January 29, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 36%
Romney: 34%
Huckabee: 14%
Giuliani: 13%
Paul: 2%

Amendment 1 fails by getting 58% yes votes (60% required)

Clinton: 57%
Obama: 31%
Edwards: 10%

Republican storyline: Gov. Crist sacrifices tax plan to help his preferred candidate head into Hyperbole Tuesday with major momentum.

Democratic storyline: Hillary claims victory, thanks Floridians, promises that she'll return to grab more money... uh, win the state in November.

Posted by: sdorn | January 29, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35%
McCain 27%
Giuliani 17%

Romney will become the new front runner.

Posted by: snakeeyes198 | January 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Romney - 37
McCain - 29
Guli - 21
Huck - 11

Romney's convincing victory among GOP voters prevents McCain from assuming front runner status. Early voting keeps Guliani in the race. Clinton wins meaningless contest by double digits but declares major victory anyway

Posted by: cferry3124 | January 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 14%

Story: McCain cannot win a true Republican primary. Rudy is gone, now a two man race between Romney and McCain. Huckabee hangs around until Super Tuesday.

Posted by: mzabel | January 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

McCain 32%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 14%
Guilianni 13%

Big night for the pundits after the polls close and Rudy is gone.

Posted by: breich | January 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

mccain-36
romney-34
guiliani-14
huckaboom-11
paul-5

a long night for cc followed by me having a long chat with our little fascist who posted above about the realities of that particular denomination

Posted by: candylane | January 29, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 34
McCain: 34
Huckabee: 16
Guiliani: 12
Paul: 4

Posted by: jcmckenney | January 29, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35%
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 17%
Giuliani: 11%
Paul: 5%


In latest round of Republican Musical Chairs, when the music stops, Mr. 9-11 garners just 9-11% of the vote and is left standing. Gulliani -- exit stage right.

(OR: So much for that firewall. Scorched Gulliani burns out)

Posted by: msheik | January 29, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

McCain %35
Romney %33
Guiliani %17
Huckabee %10

McCain pulls off the upset, but gives a lackluster victory speech, failing to secure any momentum. Romney's concession is eloquent, but tacky as he talks about all the "events" in play for more "gold medals" on Feb. 5. The primary goes to next Tuesday (and possibly convention) to decide on a nominee.

Guiliani exceeds expectations slightly, but bows out graciously in hopes to salvage his reputation. Huckabee hasn't one a contest in four weeks, and also bows out - Iowa was a fluke.

Posted by: kvandy | January 29, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

These are the names on the Republican ballot today:

Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Alan Keyes
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Fred Thompson

Posted by: Digital_Voter | January 29, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Mccain - 32%
Romney - 29%
Guiliani - 21%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 4%

Posted by: premail | January 29, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Mack 34%
Romney 33%
Huck 17%
Giuliani 15%

I'd rather lose a tee-shirt than lose the primary battle.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | January 29, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 20%
Huckabee 12%

"McCain eeks out a win, but you would never be able to tell this by media coverage. Giuliani embarrassed and seeks retribution--Florida voters beware."

Posted by: vivekgopalan | January 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 31 %
McCain: 26 %
Giuliani: 23 %
Huckabee: 13 %
Paul: 4 %
Thompson: 3 %

Storyline: Romney wins the Cuban vote big. His convincing victory over McCain certifies him as the nat'l frontrunner. Governor Crist goes from hero to...

Also: Thompson, gone from the race but there in spirit, proves the difference between third place Rudy and second place Rudy, who will announce tomorrow that he is dropping out of the race, with a likely endorsement of McCain later in the week. His support neutralizes the sting from McCain's embarrassing loss and gives the AZ senator a push into the northeast and Rust Belt states on Feb 5.

Posted by: briantucker_2 | January 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 36%
Romney - 30%
Giuliani - 17%
Huckabee - 14%

Big Stories - McCain takes a big step towards the nomination and has the momentum leading into Tuesday. Very high turnout among Republicans.

Posted by: 06csg | January 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

McCain 32 percent (+327 votes more than Romney, need recount to settle)
Romney: 32 percent
Giuliani: 16 percent
Huckabee: 15 percent
Paul: 3 percent;

Posted by: zhanglao | January 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Report abuse

McCain 36%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 16%
Guiliani 14%

Headline: "McCain wins Florida and Guiliani's Endorsement after another fourth place finish"

Posted by: AndyR3 | January 29, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33
Romney 32
Huckabee 19
Guiliani 12
Paul 4

dp

Posted by: duanelaw1 | January 29, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

funny bigred and tonysmith.

Romney - 35%
McCain - 25%
Huckabee - 20%
Guiliani - 15%
R Paul - 5%

Storyline: Romney talks economy, McCain is loathed by base and closed primary hurts him, Huckabee draws big GOTV effort by FL's many megachurches; Rudy decides looking like a total loser is bad for business and quits before he's embarrassed in NY.

Posted by: drindl | January 29, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

ByLine: Independents cross over to give McCain narrow victory, Lawsuit against Fl for changing the rules to help McCain

McCain: 37%
Romney: 35 %
Rudy: 17%
Huckabee: 10%

Posted by: vbhoomes | January 29, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 32%
Romney - 29%
Giuliani - 16%
Huckabee - 12%

Clinton - 46%
Obama - 29%
Edwards - 13%

Even though the Dem Party has said the delegates won't be seated, the voters are registering their preferences.

Posted by: taflaco | January 29, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Romney - 34
McCain - 32
Giuliani - 12
Huckster - 18
Paul - 4

I think people are more tired of Giuliani than most think, even with early voting.

Posted by: alanakm | January 29, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

No Thompson predictions? He didn't quit the race until after some of the absentees were mailed. And, with no cross-over voting allowed from Independents or Dems, McCain may have a harder time. My guesses:

Romney 35%
McCain 30%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%
Thompson 2%

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Posted by: Truth_Hunter | January 29, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 32
Rudy 25

Top story: Rudy received big benefits from early voting, will stay in the race through at least Super Tuesday.

Posted by: gguibert | January 29, 2008 12:24 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 29
Guiliani 18

Posted by: jthomp | January 29, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 36
McCain: 34
Huckabee: 12

Storyline: Suddenly, the GOP race doesn't look so muddled anymore: conservatives rally 'round Romney

Posted by: novamatt | January 29, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38
Romney 29
Huckabee 17
Giuliani 12
Paul 4

Storyline: 1. Giuliani finally finishes ahead of Paul, can drop out with shred of dignity.
2. McCain wins seniors and military personnel for margin of victory.
3. Alan Keyes gets the drop on Paul by announcing a 3rd party campaign.

Posted by: rallender | January 29, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Romney 35.4%
McCain 33.2%
Huckabee 13.6%
Rudy 13.3%
Paul 4.4%

Huckabee's strength will be in the panhandle. Romney will rack up significant numbers in Orlando and Tampa as suburban voters become more comfortable with him.

And for the Democrats-

Clinton 47%
Obama 32%
Edwards 19%

Obama is win in Broward and Dade Counties. Hillary will win everywhere else. Edwards will do well with conservative Dems in the panhandle and Jacksonville. Obama will win Cuban Democrats.

Posted by: dbroton01 | January 29, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34%
McCain 33%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%
Other 2%

Storyline "Conservatives lining up behind Romney, Giuliani leaves race, citing health reasons"

Posted by: gckarcher | January 29, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33.2%
Romney 31.8%
Huckabee 16%
Giuliani 12%
Thompson 2%
Paul 3%

Storyline: McCain wins squeaker, but can he unite the party? Giuliani drops out, endorses McCain. Romney continues fight into Super Tuesday.

Posted by: sjkonig | January 29, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

mccain 34
romney 30
rudy 17
huckabee 13
paul 4

McCain survives bloodbath with Romney; Rudy bows out

Posted by: jpsherer | January 29, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 35
Romney: 34
Guiliani: 25

Guiliani somewhat saved by early voting, Romney and McCain fight on to Super de Duper Tuesday

Posted by: ma261988 | January 29, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Romney - 38%
McCain - 35%
Giuliani - 15%
Huckabee - 10%
Paul - 2%

Romney bounces back as economy crisis deepens. McCain claims he has the veteran vote all but sealed up as such declares to fight on to for the other veterans. Guiliani doesnt take no for an answer and lives to fight another day.

Posted by: scadekker | January 29, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Another post from the Villanova guy from SC who thinks G-Town is overrated. I loved the political cartoon with the note on the fridge for Bill that said something like "If you ruin my candidacy, you will be sleeping on the couch, again"-HRC.

McCain 40%
Romney 28%
Rudy 14%

Storyline: There really is a South Carolina bounce. Rudy drops out. Please send the largest t-shirt you make (even if it is for the elephants at the circus). They are made in the USA, correct? If not, please donate to a homeless shelter in Alexandria, my former hometown.

Posted by: Larsen770 | January 29, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

Romney 38%
McCain 37%
Giuliani 16%


Storyline:

"Romney edges McCain in close Florida Primary; Giuliani a distant third, withdraws from presidential race and endorses McCain"

Posted by: Digital_Voter | January 29, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 32%
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 17%
Giuliani: 16%
Paul: 4%

Storyline: John McCain beats Willard "Mitt" Romney; Takes all delegates with him.

Posted by: vcragin | January 29, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33%
Romney 30%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 5%

Florida Sun Shines On McCain, Romney presses on, Rudy considering options.

Posted by: stjetters | January 29, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 32
Giuliani 15
Huckabee 13
Paul 3

Posted by: glennchappell3 | January 29, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

Romney 40
McCain 35
Giuliani 12
Huckabee 11
Paul 2

Storyline: Can McCain win GOP-only primaries?

Posted by: steveboyington | January 29, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32
McCain 30
Giuliani 15
Huckabee 13
Paul 5

Storyline: Huckabee and Giuliani drop out! Huckabee endorses McCain! Race is officially between McCain and Romney!

Posted by: theseventen | January 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Mitt 36
Mac 32

Everyone else? Who cares. Early voting will go towards Romney. Crist and Martinez endorsements don't go anywhere because McCain is an idiot on the economy and his attack on Romney was slanderous.

Posted by: braddahmj | January 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

McCain 37%
Romney 32%
Giuliani 19%

McCain is the undisputed front-runner; Giuliani finishes slightly better than expected due to early voting, but drops his bid and endorses McCain this week for two reasons: to avoid humiliating loss to McCain in New York State on Super Tuesday, and to position himself to be McCain's running mate.

Posted by: harlemboy | January 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 38%
Romney - 32%
Huckabee - 14%
Giuliani - 13%
Paul - 3%

Storyline - Retirees propel McCain to victory.

Posted by: cdlutz | January 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 33.5%
Huckabee 15.8%
Rudy 15%
Ron Paul 4%

Posted by: caburke | January 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 31.6%
McCain: 31.4%
Giuliani: 16%
Huckabee: 16%
Paul: 5%

Storyline: Romney wins by a hanging chad's worth. Giuliani pins hopes on making it in New York.

Posted by: egc52556 | January 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Romney 38%
Mcain 35%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 12%
Paul 3%

Giuliani campaign is dead after coming third in Florida.

Will the GOP go to a brokered conventions?

Posted by: jr1886 | January 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/gop_candidates_fail_to_unite_t.html

Interesting analysis of GOP race by a conservative columnist.

He hits on one point that hasn't gotten too much attention - all the other candidates and even non-affiliated Republican politicians can't stand Romney.

"Mr. Romney received a modest bump in the polls immediately after the debate, but it dissipated when Florida's popular governor, Charlie Crist, and Sen. Mel Martinez, popular with Cuban-Americans, endorsed Sen. McCain. Both likely would have remained neutral were it not for the heavy handed tactics of Mr. Romney's operatives, said the American Spectator's "Prowler."

The Prowler reported Monday he'd been told by a consultant who's worked for both Gov. Crist and Sen. Martinez that: "It finally got to the point for the both of them that they just got fed up with the constant harassment. They weren't going to endorse Romney, and under the right circumstances, one or both of them might have chosen to sit the primary out, but the Romney people just made it intolerable."

Aggressive, obnoxious stupidity. None of the other candidates like Mitt Romney. This is an indication why."

Posted by: jimd52 | January 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 16%
Giuliani 14%


McCain proves he can win without the independent vote. Giuliani to drop out after coming in fourth in Florida.

Posted by: gb003k | January 29, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Trust The People??"Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear."

William Gladstone, 4 time Prime Minister of Great Britain

d
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n
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t

f
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a
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t
h
e

f
a
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i
s
t
s

Posted by: JKrishnamurti | January 29, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 30%
Romney - 26%
Guiliani - 17%
Huckabee - 14%
Ron Paul - 3.5%

Medium shirt please.

Posted by: Luiz.Bravim | January 29, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

Romney 40

McCain 37

Guiliani 11

Huckabee 9

Paul 3
As Guiliani takes 9 minutes 11 seconds to drop from race and avoid a NY loss, he admits "I can't make it there, I can't make it anywhere"

Posted by: tonysmith | January 29, 2008 12:12 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 33%
Romney: 30%
Giuliani: 14%
Huckabee: 13%
Paul: 2%

Posted by: trisha2 | January 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

McCain - 34.5%
Romney - 33.5%
Giuliani - 16%
Huckabee - 11%
Paul - 5%

Race too close to call until absentees are counted. McCain emerges as solid front-runner. Giuliani re-evaluating candidacy.

Posted by: jimd52 | January 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Romney 40%
McCain 29%
Rudy 12%
Huck 10%

Despite endless media fluffing, Republicans still don't trust John McCain.

Posted by: pwtrue | January 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Romney: 40
McCain: 32
Huckabee: 14
Giuliani: 11
Paul: 3

Stroyline: McCain runs into a closed primary buzzsaw; Where will Rudy's support go after his concession?

Posted by: paulnolette | January 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Romney 34
McCain 32
Guiliani 20
Hucks 10
Paul 4

Posted by: andrewgerst | January 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

The Flip-flopper 29%
The Temper 26%
Mr. 9/11 17%
The Preacher 15%
Dr. Gonzo 11%


Top Storylines
1.) Rudy Who?
2.) Can Johnny Mac win in the closed states?
3.) Mitt knows it's the economy, and he ain't stupid.

Posted by: bigred1120 | January 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Romney 33
McCain 32
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 14
Paul 2

Giuliani probably edged out his competitors with the mail-in/early ballot crowd, but higher than expected turnout combined with late decider's favoring Romney, McCain, and Huckabee knock Giuliani to a disappointing fourth place finish. Storyline will be: economy propels Romney to victory.

Posted by: sobrokenoh | January 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

McCain 38%
Romney 35%
Huckabee 17%
Giliani 9%
Paul 1%

Early voting helps McCain win Florida. Giliani bows out of race, but reserves endorsement. Clinton's hold victory party to pander for delegates.

Posted by: rogden71 | January 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

McCain: 37
Romney: 30
Giuliani: 15
Huckabee: 13
Paul: 5

Storyline: McCain seals the deal; proposes radical change to health care plan- names JT3 health advisor, and calls for funding to help protect heart attack prone Hoya fans like Cillizza and naylorben.

Posted by: naylorben | January 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

McCain galvanized the military vote in North Florida, Orlando, and Tampa Bay, en route to a 38 % to 31% thumping of Mitt Romney in Florida's Republican primary. Mike Huckabee rode the rural evangelical vote to a third place finish with 18% of the vote. Latinos largely sat out the race, suggesting a movement to the Democratic party for the Cuban- American voters.

Posted by: normboyd40 | January 29, 2008 12:06 PM | Report abuse

McCain 34
Romney 30
Rudy 18
Huckabee 12
Paul 3

Posted by: Pfedders | January 29, 2008 12:06 PM | Report abuse

McCain 32
Romney 30
Giuliani 17

Storyline: Giuliani drops out.

Posted by: bsimon | January 29, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

McCain 33.2%
Romney 32.9%
Giuliani 15.1%

The storyline is that it's too close to call when the pundits go to sleep tonight.

Posted by: brentb52 | January 29, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

Romney 32
McCain 30
Giullani 25
Huckabee 10
Paul 3

Story: Huckabee supporters propel Romney to victory. Giullani does better than expected due to early voting; vows to fight on until February 5th.

Posted by: davehomuth | January 29, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

I'm going to guess that Romney will edge out McCain 33 to 30 with Giuliani coming in with better than expected 18%. My guess is that Giuliani will be helped by early voting and, given that it's a toss-up between the top 2, Romney's better organisation will win the day-plus I'm rooting for Romney, as I'm a democrat

Posted by: matt.flynn | January 29, 2008 12:01 PM | Report abuse

I'm going to guess that Romney will edge out McCain 33 to 30 with Giuliani coming in with better than expected 18%. My guess is that Giuliani will be helped by early voting and, given that it's a toss-up between the top 2, Romney's better organisation will win the day-plus I'm rooting for Romney, as I'm a democrat

Posted by: matt.flynn | January 29, 2008 12:01 PM | Report abuse

McCain 35
Romney 31
Guliani 14
Paul 8
2 Buck Huck 8

I would like an XL

Posted by: djeterpt1 | January 29, 2008 11:56 AM | Report abuse

Romney: 35 percent
McCain: 33 percent
Giuliani: 15 percent
Huckabee: 14.5 percent
Paul: 2.5 percent;

Storyline: Romney wins but McCain still frontrunner. The press loves McCain. So something like "McCain almost beats Romney in a closed primary; just imagine how much he would have won if it was an open primary."

Posted by: bigrusslds | January 29, 2008 11:53 AM | Report abuse

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