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The Final Fix Electoral Map

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

After two years of following every jot and tittle of a presidential race that has had more twists and turns than this political junkie could have even imagined, we've reached the end.

It is now less than 24 hours before polls open across the country and voters get to decide who the 44th president of the United States will be.

In our final Fix electoral map, we put Barack Obama at 319 electoral votes and John McCain as 219 electoral votes -- a significant margin of victory for the senator from Illinois.

Our final map splits the two states that decided the last two presidential elections -- Florida and Ohio -- between Obama and McCain.

In the final analysis we put Florida in Obama's column -- based on the massive voter registration and turnout operation built by the Democrat in the state -- and gave Ohio to McCain due to a belief that Obama's ability to grow the electorate in a state so closely targeted in 2004 is far more limited than in other places.

The truth is that the outcome in both states is almost unknowable as both sides acknowledge how close the contest is. The same goes for Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Nevada -- all states President Bush carried with varying levels of ease in 2004.

Make no mistake, however. The overall electoral picture clearly favors Obama.

As David "The Dean" Broder, Dan "The Man" Balz and the Fix wrote in a Sunday state of play piece:

"The senator from Arizona has not been in front in any of the 159 national polls conducted over the past six weeks. His slender hopes for winning the White House now depend on picking up a major Democratic stronghold or fighting off Obama's raids on most of the five states President Bush won four years ago that now lean toward the Democrat. He also must hold onto six other states that Bush won in 2004 but are considered too close to call."

In 36 hours or so, we should know the answers to questions we've been asking for the better part of the last two years. Savor these hours; you'll miss them when they're gone.

By Chris Cillizza  |  November 3, 2008; 6:00 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Sunday Afternoon Fun: The Best Band in the World
Next: Democrats Carry Big Generic Ballot Lead

Comments

So IN, OH, and NC voted differently than you predicted. Very accurate overall, but what interests me is that these 3 all ran the same way--you predicted McCain would win them, but Obama did. You didn't forecast Obama to win anything he didn't.

Posted by: JonSM99 | November 8, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

"I wish the candidate would discuss global poverty more. According to The Borgen Project:
$30 billion: Annual shortfall to end world hunger.
$540 billion: Annual U.S. Defense Budget."

Posted by: diana9 | November 4, 2008 3:06 PM | Report abuse


I could entitle this the continuing story of bungalow bill. I have this running post with you Bill and I am happy to have such a discourse. I wish you would show me the respect you stated that I showed you. You can do this by simply answering honestly about the current administrations failings regarding the Constitution, civil rights, ethics and morality. If you can't answer without putting up the same answer I will have to take it that you can't find any support for this current administrations actions. You may have guessed, we just don't buy the talking points!


Thatsnuts: Your response sounds like the same liberal name calling. Thanks, though, for the compliment of devoting so much time to attempting to match up the Democrat’s talking points to contents of my post.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA

Bill: I went back and checked my earlier posting. I didn't see that I called anyone a name or did so in a typical liberal fashion.

I did mention that the Joe the Plumber thing was a fraud. Bill, when anyone says he is one thing and isn't, earns
X amount and fears increased tax burden, when he won't, and is interested in buying a business that isn't for sale and he can't buy, that is a fraud. It doesn't seem to require a particular political bent.

However, I would like to hear your comments regarding the excesses, consitutional abrigement, and other ethical, moral and legal lapses of the current administration. I just want you to state you agree or disagree with those behaviors and why.

Posted by: Thatsnuts

Posted by: Thatsnuts | November 4, 2008 9:02 AM | Report abuse


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If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA GAVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


YOU CALL THAT JUDGEMENT ???


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


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Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 4, 2008 5:20 AM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 4, 2008 4:48 AM | Report abuse

"The latest battleground poll from Fox News is out Monday afternoon for the key battleground states and it shows McCain is leading in Florida and North Carolina, tied in Ohio and Missouri and behind just a little in Colorado and Virginia. This is so close — McCain can win!

We here at the National Republican Trust PAC (GOPtrust.com) are targeting these battleground states for a McCain win.

As you can tell from the numbers, the election is in critical mode and any one of these state may make the difference in defeating Barack Obama. "

Um, no. Not any ONE. McCain needs ALL of those states.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 4, 2008 1:59 AM | Report abuse

If you are a veteran you have no choice but to vote for Obama!

Look at what the DAV and VFW thinks about John McCain!

The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America released its annual congressional scorecard. Senators Obama and Biden received a "B" rating. For the second year in a row, John McCain got a "D" rating, placing him solidly in the lowest 10% of Senators nationwide.

SOURCE: http://www.veteranreportcard.org/reportcard.pdf

How about the DAV - Disabled American Veterans

McCain doesn’t have a perfect score with DAV (Disabled American Veterans), a group of 1.3 million disabled veterans that supports more funding for veterans health care. McCain has a 20 percent record of voting the way DAV would like him to in 2006. The group is nonpartisan, but its 100 percent rankings disproportionately go to Democrats: 207 Democrats in Congress and only 13 Republicans received scores of 100 percent in 2006.

. . . . . . and what republicans are saying when they endorse Obama!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081023/ts_alt_afp/usvoterepublicanpalin;_ylt=AjIb3taJk5YFWF2U8_8ZriOb.HQA

Ken Adelman, a Republican hawk who served in top diplomatic and defense posts for presidents Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, told the New Yorker magazine that Palin's choice for vice president made him switch sides and he is now supporting Obama for president.

Former secretary of state Colin Powell, a Republican and military general who has also served as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, on Sunday endorsed Obama and said of Palin: "I don't believe she is ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president."

And one of former president George H.W. Bush's speechwriters, Christopher Buckley, a prominent conservative, announced this month he was abandoning support for McCain for many reasons, including "the Palin nomination. What on earth can he have been thinking?"

John McCain thinks only about himself! He certainly doesn't care about you once you have left the service. Hell he doesn't care if you suffer from PTSD! He doesn't care if you need an education!

Just do it the John McCain way, find yourself a women 15 years younger than you, make sure she is a wealth liquor distributor, and you will get all the care and education you will need!

Wake up America! The only choice if you are a Veteran is the Obama/Biden Ticket.

Veterans for Obama!

Obama/Biden '08 '12

Posted by: seakayaker | November 4, 2008 1:38 AM | Report abuse

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review 11/3/08

Ridge: Steelers and McCain will win
From a rally right outside of Pittsburgh this afternoon, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge said that the pundits will wake up two days in row having been wrong, because both the Pittsburgh Steelers and John McCain will win. Experts in sports and politics have both counted the Steelers out of winning the Monday Night Football game this evening against the Washington Redskins and (have) McCain losing...

*****************

Update 23-6 Steelers with 8 minute to go in the 4th quarter!
Ridge is Right- Go McCain!

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 11:27 PM | Report abuse

TIN SOLDIER OBAMA'S COMING- COAL PLANTS ARE ON THEIR OWN- BANKRUPT- YOU CAN HEAR THE DRUMMING- ALL DEAD IN O-HI-O!!!

(WATCH McCAIN TAKE THE COAL STATES)

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 10:22 PM | Report abuse

Regardless of how the McCain camp wants to spin their plans, it's clear from the past
and current statements that the main targets for cuts to fund their huge tax cuts
include Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (mandatory spending).

Hotz-Eakins, chief economics advisor for McCain, wrote an arcticle about this: http://www.cfr.org/publication/9872/testimony_of_douglas_holtzeakin_before_the_committee_on_the_budget_united_states_house_of_representatives_prepared_remarks.html.

Regarding Social Security, he wrote, “There exist a wide variety of modifications
to the basic program—increases in the normal and early retirement age, changes
in the indexation of initial benefit awards, changes to the cost-of-living indexation
during retirement, altering benefits to reflect longevity, and others—that would
slow the growth of outlays."

Regarding Medicare and Medicaid, he wrote, “The key requires not only slowing
the growth of outlays, but making sure that we get quality for each dollar of spending.
Given the scale of the challenge, it is likely that there is no single reform needed,
but rather a long series of adjustments to ensure that the United States does not
overspend on health care....

"An alternative approach is the use of triggering mechanisms to specify cuts—perhaps
unpalatable cuts—automatically and thereby induce action to change mandatory programs.
An example is the Administration’s recent proposal for automatic reductions in Medicare
if the program requires greater than 45 percent in general revenue."

He wrote under "CONCLUSION":
"To summarize, controlling the future growth of mandatory spending—especially that
in old-age programs—is central to controlling the size of the federal government,
fostering future economic growth, and maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy."


He voiced similar opinions this year:

"Holtz-Eakin proposes curbing growth in Social Security (by such measures as
trimming the inflation adjustment and raising the retirement age), reforming
the health care system (for example, by promoting competition and paying for
outcomes instead of treatments), and gradually reducing discretionary spending
as a share of GDP."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/st_20080510_8442.php

See also:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122315505846605217.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_mostpop#printMode

Posted by: Liberty77 | November 3, 2008 9:18 PM | Report abuse

37andOalley, you've been called out. What is the answer? Why the change from alley to Dorchester?
_______

"Why did 37th & O change handles? Did someone graduate from Georgetown and move to BC?

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade"

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 3, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

ALL GOOD

All polls good for BHO: Gallup, up 11; Marist, CBS, and ABC, up 9; NBC, up 8; RCP Poll of Polls, up 7.3. BHO ahead in every battleground state, and competitive in red states like MO. There is no current poll from any legitimate pollster showing Mac/Pfalin has any road to 270 EVs under any circumstances.

Tomorrow, the final poll--a choice between: The future and the past. Hope and hate. Humanity and bigotry. Calm and rage. Planning and impulse. Intelligence and cluelessness (What newspapers do you read? Answer: Silence).

Let's all hope America makes the right choice. We know 37thandOalley (now posting as "Dorchester", for whatever reason) and other kindred fools (does Mr. T pity them?) will make the wrong choice.

* * * * * * *

Senator Obama, will you step over here please so I may administer the oath of office....

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 3, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

I see some people here are doubting McCain can win tomorrow- oh, wait, we aren't talking about the election, are we? I thought McCain was talking about playing scrabble with Sarah. "Gotcha" and "Betcha" - not words- so I think McCain can beat Palin

Posted by: silverspring25 | November 3, 2008 7:28 PM | Report abuse

Obama will carry Ohio. The combination of 400,000 newly registered voters during the Democratic Primary season, the organizational apparatus in place in rural/small-town areas aided by Governor Strickland's organization and support in the Appalachian part of the state of which Strickland is a product, and the fact that Ohio finally has a Democratic Secretary of State rather than the odious far-right Kenneth Blackwell to ensure a fair and efficient polling process in the election, are the three factors which will make the difference in putting Obama over the top in Ohio.

Also, watch for Democrats to gain 3 Congressional seats here. The Canton-based 16th, an open seat due to Regula's retirement is a done deal for Democrat Boccieri. The 15th District here in Columbus where Republican Pryce is retiring, is leaning Democratic despite Kilroy being a mediocre candidate. And the 1st district centered in Cincinnati is trending Democratic, with State Rep. Driehaus, son of popular and legendary Cincinnati Democratic political activist Don Driehaus, likely to oust incumbent Chabot.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | November 3, 2008 7:10 PM | Report abuse

Message from The National Republican Trust PAC
From Scott Wheeler


Dear Supporter:

The latest battleground poll from Fox News is out Monday afternoon for the key battleground states and it shows McCain is leading in Florida and North Carolina, tied in Ohio and Missouri and behind just a little in Colorado and Virginia. This is so close — McCain can win!

We here at the National Republican Trust PAC (GOPtrust.com) are targeting these battleground states for a McCain win.

As you can tell from the numbers, the election is in critical mode and any one of these state may make the difference in defeating Barack Obama.
*********************************
Please Go Vote Tomorrow!

Let's Prove Jack Cafferty and Keith Olberman Can't Intimidate Us!

McCain/Palin 2008

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 6:59 PM | Report abuse

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If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA GAVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


YOU CALL THAT JUDGEMENT ???


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


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.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


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.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 5:25 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 5:19 PM | Report abuse

Ladies and gentlemen, please place your final bets, and make 'em count.

This'll be my final comment until Wednesday, so...

PREPARE TO BE OBAMINATED!

Posted by: hijikatatoshizo | November 3, 2008 5:00 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 4:27 PM | Report abuse

"Three polls that are current and were very accurate during the Kerry/Bush election are in agreement in that Obama is gaining over the last 3 days. Rasmussen, GWU Battleground and Zogby all have him at 50-52 percent throw in 2 points for independent candidates and that leaves McCain with 46-48 percent."

Don't put too much stock in pollsters giving themselves credit for being accurate in 2004. That was one of the most partisan elections in history. People formed their opinions early and cast them in stone. Very few undecided.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

"Three polls that are current and were very accurate during the Kerry/Bush election are in agreement in that Obama is gaining over the last 3 days. Rasmussen, GWU Battleground and Zogby all have him at 50-52 percent throw in 2 points for independent candidates and that leaves McCain with 46-48 percent."

Don't put too much stock in pollsters giving themselves credit for being accurate in 2004. That was one of the most partisan elections in history. People formed their opinions early and cast them in stone. Very few undecided.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008

Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008

Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008

Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008

Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

i thought people were going to vote out the dems who voted for the bailout.


i guess people's memory is really short. and so is the anger.

no wonder politicians have no respect for the people.

Posted by: coqui44 | November 3, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

i thought people were going to vote out the dems who voted for the bailout.


i guess people's memory is really short. and so is the anger.

no wonder politicians have no respect for the people.

Posted by: coqui44 | November 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

i thought people were going to vote out the dems who voted for the bailout.


i guess people's memory is really short. and so is the anger.

no wonder politicians have no respect for the people.

Posted by: coqui44 | November 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Americans rarely have this oportunity.

The chance to make "The Man" take a Hike.

The hard pressed US Tax Payer after $150 oil and gas through the roof, economy down the hole, rising prices, the stupid Iraq war, after having their 401Ks and the pensions halved and then halved again.

After no trickle down but plenty of corruption, TRILLION dollar Welfare for the Wealthy and all that is not even half of it; those US taxyers and voters could perhaps be described as being:

"AS MAD AS HELL"

So you can perhaps see why they will be relishing the chance to tell John McCain and all his commie GOP cronies to:

"GET A JOB!"

Posted by: walker1 | November 3, 2008 2:57 PM | Report abuse

i thought people were going to vote out the dems who voted for the bailout.


i guess people's memory is really short. and so is the anger.

no wonder politicians have no respect for the people.

Posted by: coqui44 | November 3, 2008 2:57 PM | Report abuse

i thought people were going to vote out the dems who voted for the bailout.


i guess people's memory is really short. and so is the anger.

no wonder politicians have no respect for the people.

Posted by: coqui44 | November 3, 2008 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Americans rarely have this oportunity.

The chance to make "The Man" take a Hike.

The hard pressed US Tax Payer after $150 oil and gas through the roof, economy down the hole, rising prices, the stupid Iraq war, after having their 401Ks and the pensions halved and then halved again.

After no trickle down but plenty of corruption, TRILLION dollar Welfare for the Wealthy and all that is not even half of it; those US taxyers and voters could perhaps be described as being:

"AS MAD AS HELL"

So you can perhaps see why they will be relishing the chance to tell John McCain and all his commie GOP cronies to:

"GET A JOB!"

Posted by: walker1 | November 3, 2008 2:50 PM | Report abuse

Why did 37th & O change handles? Did someone graduate from Georgetown and move to BC?

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | November 3, 2008 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Given what your ombudsman had to say, aren't you simply piling on. Where's the balance? Are you simply in the bag with Obama and liberals? Aren't there any conservative "facts" you could tout?

Posted by: eddiehaskel | November 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Report abuse

Given what your ombudsman had to say, aren't you simply piling on. Where's the balance? Are you simply in the bag with Obama and liberals? Aren't there any conservative "facts" you could tout?

Posted by: eddiehaskel | November 3, 2008 2:35 PM | Report abuse

Ask some coal miners how they feel about 0bama now that the tape of him pledging to bankrupt the coal industry has finally leaked out from our "in-the-tank" media.

Posted by: NeverLeft


--------------

I asked.

They're pissed that Rush, Beck and the other Palin idiots like yourself have lied to them again and are voting Obama.

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Hey neverleft:
You may always call up Jeb Bush and Mrs. Katherine Harris from Florida to save you Party. They have done it very well in Florida/2000 and the Republican moron has become president. Who knows can they help McCain tomorrow in Ohio and Missouri?

Posted by: brazilianRio | November 3, 2008 2:25 PM | Report abuse

Hey neverleft:
You may always call up Jeb Bush and Mrs. Katherine Harris from Florida to save you Party. They have done it very well in Florida/2000 and the Republican moron has become president. Who knows can they help McCain tomorrow in Ohio and Missouri?

Posted by: brazilianRio | November 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Hey neverleft:
You may always call up Jeb Bush and Mrs. Katherine Harris from Florida to save you Party. They have done it very well in Florida/2000 and the Republican moron has become president. Who knows can they help McCain tomorrow in Ohio and Missouri?

Posted by: brazilianRio | November 3, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

I'll admit it. I was one of those SWING VOTERS that just could not make up his mind.

That was until I read the following article:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ethanol-farm-industries-split-on-candidates-5106.html

Posted by: leed1 | November 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Report abuse

I'll admit it. I was one of those SWING VOTERS that just could not make up his mind.

That was until I read the following article:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ethanol-farm-industries-split-on-candidates-5106.html

Posted by: leed1 | November 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Report abuse

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

.


.

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Make Your Final Decision After Reading One Of The Top 5 Political Blogs Of The Election Of 2008


Bookmark It Now 37th and O Street

http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet

.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Ask some coal miners how they feel about 0bama now that the tape of him pledging to bankrupt the coal industry has finally leaked out from our "in-the-tank" media.

Posted by: NeverLeft | November 3, 2008 1:45 PM | Report abuse

"Obama's comments about coal being "bankrupted" are selective parsing of his words. He's saying that traditional dirty, coal fired generation plants need to be taxed to encourage a migration to clean coal technology, which he supports."

Yeah, this whole thing hardly strikes me a news. Everyone knows that both McCain and Obama want to tax polluters. This isn't a secret.

Well, its about another 30 hours before polls close in Ohio and PA and Obama is doing very well in those states. West Virginia was never really in play anyways. This might have hurt if McCain and Palin was given more time to repeat the message, but time has just run out.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 1:42 PM | Report abuse

For those of you [un?]fortunate enough to have to vote on November 4th: Here's hoping for short lines and clear sky's.


Posted by: DonJasper | November 3, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

"Obama's comments about coal being "bankrupted" are selective parsing of his words. He's saying that traditional dirty, coal fired generation plants need to be taxed to encourage a migration to clean coal technology, which he supports."

Yeah, this whole thing hardly strikes me a news. Everyone knows that both McCain and Obama want to tax polluters. This isn't a secret.

Well, its about another 30 hours before polls close in Ohio and PA and Obama is doing very well in those states. West Virginia was never really in play anyways. This might have hurt if McCain and Palin was given more time to repeat the message, but time has just run out.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 1:37 PM | Report abuse

We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 11:24 AM
________________________________________

That was certainly true when the U.S. got the chap they'd most like to have a beer with in 2000 and 2004. This year Americans are being a whole lot smarter.

Posted by: multiplepov | November 3, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

PALIN NOW WILL NOT RELEASE MEDICAL RECORDS

I have a feeling the abortion is there, along with the treatment for drug abuse, mental illness. It is known she has been treated for depression and has/is a drug user.
This should have been gone into a long time ago, but it is probably a who cares now.

Posted by: popasmoke | November 3, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 11:24 AM
________________________________________

That was certainly true when the U.S. got the chap they'd most like to have a beer with in 2000 and 2004. This year Americans are being a whole lot smarter.

Posted by: multiplepov | November 3, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

Do a real poll of FL and you can see where people actually stand on the issues.

I'm lazy. I'll let others do it for me.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

Thatsnuts: Your response sounds like the same liberal name calling. Thanks, though, for the compliment of devoting so much time to attempting to match up the Democrat’s talking points to contents of my post.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA

Bill: I went back and checked my earlier posting. I didn't see that I called anyone a name or did so in a typical liberal fashion.

I did mention that the Joe the Plumber thing was a fraud. Bill, when anyone says he is one thing and isn't, earns
X amount and fears increased tax burden, when he won't, and is interested in buying a business that isn't for sale and he can't buy, that is a fraud. It doesn't seem to require a particular political bent.

However, I would like to hear your comments regarding the excesses, consitutional abrigement, and other ethical, moral and legal lapses of the current administration. I just want you to state you agree or disagree with those behaviors and why.

Posted by: Thatsnuts | November 3, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Something that I am very sick of hearing is that Trinity United Church of Christ on the south side of Chicago is a church of hate, or that Jeremiah Wright is somehow a preacher of hate.

Trinity was built over 2 decades from fewer than 100 members to a dynamic church of more than 6000 members. It is the largest congregation in the United Church of Christ, the larger church of which I am a proud member here in the Cleveland area. This church has dozens of ministries which have been of assistance to and truly blessed the people in the surrounding area. This was the work of God, but also of Jeremiah Wright.

Yes, his comments were over the top, but they were also blatantly taken out of context for use by Obama's enemies. I keep wondering who had the time to go through hours of Rev. Wright's sermons to find the nuggets that were used?

I truly hope Rev. Wright sues a number of folks for slander and character defamation. I doubt he will do this, but if he does, he will have a very good case.

Jon in Cleveland

Posted by: jothomp | November 3, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

McCain, Palin, Drudge and Fox have resorted to misrepresentation… OK, LYING… about the coal plant issue. Anyone surprised?

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/11/ohios-gop-senator-mccain-will.html

Posted by: FlownOver | November 3, 2008 12:58 PM | Report abuse

"It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse"

This has to be a joke. No one could seriously think this.

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | November 3, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Obama's comments about coal being "bankrupted" are selective parsing of his words. He's saying that traditional dirty, coal fired generation plants need to be taxed to encourage a migration to clean coal technology, which he supports.

So why do Republicans like air pollution?

And all his comment will do is make more Republican mouth-breathers in WV, KY and TN vote for McCain, making those states more red than they currently are. You DO realize that electoral votes aren't given proportional to the way the voters in that state go, don't you?

Posted by: Bendal | November 3, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

"It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse"

This has to be a joke. No one could seriously think this.

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | November 3, 2008 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Hey Democrats:
Take care with Florida. They have stolen 2000 elections in state and may steal it again. How? Republicans voted twice for Bush/Cheney - so, they are crazy. They can do anything to keep the status quo in USA.
Independents: wake up! Take back America to the people. God bless your minds!

Posted by: brazilianRio | November 3, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

billSwills trots out:

The planning chart showed all the easy stuff scheduled in detail, then leaped to completion through a block labeled “Then a miracle happens”.

---------------------

Sounds exactly like the McCain Presidential campaign strategy.

And if proved true, what a waste of a miracle!

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

billSwills trots out:

The planning chart showed all the easy stuff scheduled in detail, then leaped to completion through a block labeled “Then a miracle happens”.

---------------------

Sounds exactly like the McCain Presidential campaign strategy.

And if proved true, what a waste of a miracle!

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse
-----------------------------------
Is this why the Republican party has been relying on dirt when campaigning against Obama? Because dirt is what they represent?

I'd rather have a president who represents the people of the United States. That's constitutional.

Posted by: multiplepov | November 3, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

To Dorchester and Congress:
" . . . we stopped demanding the best in the white house." Let me guess, you also voted for Bush? The hypocrisy is absolutely mind blowing. I like the special attention to Obama's secrecy about his SAT scores. What a joke. The only trick in your bag is to spew irrelevant hate-speech in hopes that some knucklehead will say, "hey yeah, you're right, what about those SAT scores!" How pathetic.

Posted by: karinks1 | November 3, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVEN $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Hey Democrats:
Take care with Florida. They have stolen 2000 elections in state and may steal it again. How? Republicans voted twice for Bush/Cheney - so, they are crazy. They can do anything to keep the status quo in USA.
Independents: wake up! Take back America to the people. God bless your minds!

Posted by: brazilianRio | November 3, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse
-----------------------------------
Is this why the Republican party has been relying on dirt when campaigning against Obama? Because dirt is what they represent?

I'd rather have a president who represents the people of the United States. That's constitutional.

Posted by: multiplepov | November 3, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

FINALLY!!!

Let's do this thing tomorrow! Here's hoping and praying (yes, democrats do it too!) that by tomorrow at midnight, the momentum and scope of Obama's victory is such that we can take to the streets in celebration. We'll usher in the United States' second wind as a beacon of freedom and justice to the world with music and dancing in the streets and the courtyards.
If you're winning tomorrow, start blasting patriotic music out your windows - democrats are patriots too! - lets take back America the Beautiful and God Bless America and the Star Spangled Banner and let the world know we're back, and we mean business!

I can't wait to be done reading these comments and these pointless articles. Chris, what are you and the Sleuth going to do after the election!?

Posted by: Nemotoad | November 3, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

I can tell you that FL is not going for a DEM. The results tomorrow will show that. Anyone who states that he wil make coal plants bankrupt and that energy costs are going to increase dramtically under him is not someone FL wants.

We are independant voters who want less Govt not more. We want lower taxes not higher. We are a state that is driven by tourism and higher energy cvosts will cripple us. We know this. We need lower gas prices, cheaper airfares and people with money to spend on vacations.

Do a real poll of FL and you can see where people actually stand on the issues here. I talk to thousands of people across the state and they all agree.. regardless of political party affilliation.

Posted by: tbastian | November 3, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

I am from Indiana and called on behalf of the Obama campaign. Indiana may just go to Obama , may not be by a large margin, but I think it is do able. I have talked to die hard republicans just in my family that are voting for Obama and I hear this out side the family also.VOTE OBAMA / BIDEN
Connie from "BLUE" Indiana

Posted by: grams1944 | November 3, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

BillMillsinSterlingVA writes, without a trace of irony:
"The suckers already bought the Obama pitch, and now have an investment in it. One can only keep trying to spread a little light ... [through] “The National Republican Trust". I put some money into that effort early last week."

Enough said.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Obama's coal comments are right on. All they have done is give those who were not going to vote for him anyways because of race something to hang their hats on.

God bless Obama for bankrupting the coal industry. He should then throw the coal barons in jail for exploiting the environment and the workforce.

Posted by: bondjedi | November 3, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

I can tell you that FL is not going for a DEM. The results tomorrow will show that. Anyone who states that he wil make coal plants bankrupt and that energy costs are going to increase dramtically under him is not someone FL wants.

We are independant voters who want less Govt not more. We want lower taxes not higher. We are a state that is driven by tourism and higher energy cvosts will cripple us. We know this. We need lower gas prices, cheaper airfares and people with money to spend on vacations.

Do a real poll of FL and you can see where people actually stand on the issues here. I talk to thousands of people across the state and they all agree.. regardless of political party affilliation.

Posted by: tbastian | November 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

When Obama gets in and you are a God fearing person start reading the Revelation in the Bible. It shows us what is in store for the world's future. Satan is alive and well during this campaign. Only God can help us now!!

Posted by: velowl | November 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Bill Mills, let me guess: Big Delgaudio supporter, am I right?

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | November 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Listen to Obama, his own voice, talk about how he will "bankrupt the coal industry" and hike electric bills. Audio in my blog:

http://www.mccain08-hillary2012.blogspot.com/

Posted by: dcpsychic | November 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Obama's coal comments are right on. All they have done is give those who were not going to vote for him anyways because of race something to hang their hats on.

God bless Obama for bankrupting the coal industry. He should then throw the coal barons in jail for exploiting the environment and the workforce.

Posted by: bondjedi | November 3, 2008 12:23 PM | Report abuse

When Obama gets in and you are a God fearing person start reading the Revelation in the Bible. It shows us what is in store for the world's future. Satan is alive and well during this campaign. Only God can help us now!!

Posted by: velowl | November 3, 2008 12:22 PM | Report abuse

It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse
-----------------------------------
Is this why the Republican party has been relying on dirt when campaigning against Obama? Because dirt is what they represent?

I'd rather have a president who represents the people of the United States. That's constitutional.

Posted by: multiplepov | November 3, 2008 12:15 PM | Report abuse

It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse
-----------------------------------
Is this why the Republican party has been relying on dirt when campaigning against Obama? Because dirt is what they represent?

I'd rather have a president who represents the people of the United States. That's constitutional.

Posted by: multiplepov | November 3, 2008 12:15 PM | Report abuse

The election may be closer than Chris' predictions, my only disagreement is I think Florida being more likely to go for McCain than Barack. Racism and possible long lines at polls, discouraging some people from voting, effectively disenfranchising them, may be the difference for McCain in Ohio and Florida.

So my prediction is Barack 292, McCain 246 electoral votes. Hopefully Barack will win a larger majority, more likely if all persons who want to vote actually are able to do so.

Posted by: Aprogressiveindependent | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

With regard to comments above by DorchesterAndCongress, please reverse the roles. If McCain was a black candidate, and his wife had been convicted on drug charges as Cindy McCain has been, do you think he would have made it past the Primaries. If Palin were black, do you think that the african witch doctor priest who cast a spell on her in her Pentacostal church so that she would win the Governorship would have been the issue?

And if McCain were black, do you think first of all that he would have qualified for the Naval Academy without two admirals in the family, or that he would have been allowed to fly graduated at the bottom of the class as McCain did?

NO, and if he did get his pilot's license it would have been called affirmative action, he would be flying just 'cause he was black and some poor white guy would have been out of a job because of it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62dO_pIrWoU

As far as the rest of your rant, when Bush Nationalized the banks last month it kind a takes any steam out of the argument that Obama is a socialist. And redistributing the wealth? Pleeazzzee, don't tell me that the trillion dollar increase in our national debt last month wasn't a redistribution of wealth. All of us just helped out a bunch of corporate execs keep their homes and tidy zillion dollar profits. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyfIoxTDD6Q

Posted by: bilco5 | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

This nation is on the verge of something historic - the election of a smart, competent black man as President of the United States. If is fair to say the entire world is watching. It is also fair to say the vast majority is rooting for a Republican defeat. If you don’t believe me you clearly don’t read anything.

How did we get to this place and time? How did a freshman Senator inspire millions of voters to finance his unlikely campaign? Why is he leading in the polls? How did this happen?

Well, I’ll tell you how it happened for me.

I was one of those who had doubts about the Iraq war. I did not believe that Iraq was an imminent threat to the United States. Not that Saddam was a good guy ( he wasn’t) however there are lots of bad guys in the world who are not an imminent threat to us whom we don’t attack. We were already flying over his country everyday. There was a tight embargo. Unless he had nuclear weapons how big a threat could he be?

The Administration then lied to us about Saddam and his weaponry.. Further, it sent out a duped Colin Powell to convince us. Bush knew we would believe Colin. So the United States of America, beacon of liberty, attacked a third world country, destroyed its hapless military, made rubble of its infrastructure and occupied it.

Later the lies came out. There were no dangerous weapons. Just fudged intelligence.

The Dems swept into control of Congress in 2006. Bush’s veto could override a 51-49 majority in the Senate so the war went on. Notwithstanding every indication that the majority of Americans didn’t want this war to continue, it went on anyway with no end date. I watched as we tortured prisoners, suspended Habeas Corpus and shredded the Constitution. I watched as Bush politicized the Justice Department and placed incompetent political hacks in high office. Then came the financial collapse.

So here we are. Tens of millions of us have made this journey starting a different places for different reasons; a journey which began with a distaste and disgust with Bush to a point where we may take our country back. Tens of millions have worked hard, made whatever donations we could afford and are already voting in many states.

The whole world is rooting for us to succeed. The whole world needs an America they can look up to again.

MAKE SURE YOU VOTE!

Posted by: toritto | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

This nation is on the verge of something historic - the election of a smart, competent black man as President of the United States. If is fair to say the entire world is watching. It is also fair to say the vast majority is rooting for a Republican defeat. If you don’t believe me you clearly don’t read anything.

How did we get to this place and time? How did a freshman Senator inspire millions of voters to finance his unlikely campaign? Why is he leading in the polls? How did this happen?

Well, I’ll tell you how it happened for me.

I was one of those who had doubts about the Iraq war. I did not believe that Iraq was an imminent threat to the United States. Not that Saddam was a good guy ( he wasn’t) however there are lots of bad guys in the world who are not an imminent threat to us whom we don’t attack. We were already flying over his country everyday. There was a tight embargo. Unless he had nuclear weapons how big a threat could he be?

The Administration then lied to us about Saddam and his weaponry.. Further, it sent out a duped Colin Powell to convince us. Bush knew we would believe Colin. So the United States of America, beacon of liberty, attacked a third world country, destroyed its hapless military, made rubble of its infrastructure and occupied it.

Later the lies came out. There were no dangerous weapons. Just fudged intelligence.

The Dems swept into control of Congress in 2006. Bush’s veto could override a 51-49 majority in the Senate so the war went on. Notwithstanding every indication that the majority of Americans didn’t want this war to continue, it went on anyway with no end date. I watched as we tortured prisoners, suspended Habeas Corpus and shredded the Constitution. I watched as Bush politicized the Justice Department and placed incompetent political hacks in high office. Then came the financial collapse.

So here we are. Tens of millions of us have made this journey starting a different places for different reasons; a journey which began with a distaste and disgust with Bush to a point where we may take our country back. Tens of millions have worked hard, made whatever donations we could afford and are already voting in many states.

The whole world is rooting for us to succeed. The whole world needs an America they can look up to again.

MAKE SURE YOU VOTE!

Posted by: toritto | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

BillMillsinSterlingVA writes
"In real life, the capital pulled out of the economy [you do recall why it’s called “capitalism”] will squelch economic growth, resulting in the out-year harvest of bread and fishes going into a downward spiral."

Bill, your post is rife with misunderstandings, but this one sticks out to me, today. A basic flaw of the new fiscal conservatism is this claim that tax dollars are taken out of the economy. They are not. They are merely spent differently than they would be by the taxpayers. The Keynesian school of economic theory goes into this effect in depth; I will not do so here.

Your second flaw is in talking about 'handouts'. These so-called handouts are not the primary thrust of Sen Obama's economic program. Far more important are the proposals to invest in alternative energy and domestic small businesses. For an example of why this is a good idea, see yesterday's New York Times which has an extensive article in the business section about how startups in Iowa and Toledo, OH have helped put people back to work in the alternative energy business after their traditional manufacturing jobs (Maytag washers in IA, automotive in Toledo) have gone away. Believe it or not, gov't can play a role in creating new jobs in a new economy that put people back to work - and help address the energy problems that we face.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

BillMillsinSterlingVA writes
"In real life, the capital pulled out of the economy [you do recall why it’s called “capitalism”] will squelch economic growth, resulting in the out-year harvest of bread and fishes going into a downward spiral."

Bill, your post is rife with misunderstandings, but this one sticks out to me, today. A basic flaw of the new fiscal conservatism is this claim that tax dollars are taken out of the economy. They are not. They are merely spent differently than they would be by the taxpayers. The Keynesian school of economic theory goes into this effect in depth; I will not do so here.

Your second flaw is in talking about 'handouts'. These so-called handouts are not the primary thrust of Sen Obama's economic program. Far more important are the proposals to invest in alternative energy and domestic small businesses. For an example of why this is a good idea, see yesterday's New York Times which has an extensive article in the business section about how startups in Iowa and Toledo, OH have helped put people back to work in the alternative energy business after their traditional manufacturing jobs (Maytag washers in IA, automotive in Toledo) have gone away. Believe it or not, gov't can play a role in creating new jobs in a new economy that put people back to work - and help address the energy problems that we face.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Mnteng: You are probably right. The suckers already bought the Obama pitch, and now have an investment in it. One can only keep trying to spread a little light.

You are hopefully also right about “The National Republican Trust". I put some money into that effort early last week.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 11:55 AM | Report abuse

"Someone asked a question as to why Chris is posting his final prediction lineup today, rather than tomorrow, the last possible chance to predict before the votes are counted."

Perhaps this explanation will clarify: In most years, the first story of election day deals with the quaint practice of all the voters of Smugglers Notch, Vermont voting at the stroke of Midnight leading into Election Day.

As Sherlock Holmes would say - "The game is afoot" and all ads and Forecast Polling then cease and exit-polling begins....just a thought

Posted by: AlwaysQuestioning | November 3, 2008 11:54 AM | Report abuse

I give Obama all of Cillizza's rather conservative picks, plus North Carolina, Ohio, and North Dakota. I don't see how Cillizza can call Ohio for McCain without presenting more facts and argument for why he's bucking the polls.

Georgia, Indiana, and Montana will likely prove just out of reach. The only state that I'd call a total 50-50 tossup is Missouri.

The margins in New Hampshire and Virginia will tell us a lot. If Obama outperforms or even matches polls in NH, the GOP should worry in northern Midwestern states like Indiana and Missouri. If he does well in southern Virginia (or as the McCain campaign calls it, Real Virginia), then look out evil GOP in your Southern Redoubt.

Posted by: Bud0 | November 3, 2008 11:50 AM | Report abuse

Wait, people are surprised that Obama is not a coal fan??

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 11:50 AM | Report abuse

DrVelocity writes
"It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA."

Why? Are the caribou & armadillo not getting the representation they deserve in Congress?

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 11:50 AM | Report abuse

bsimon1: Pretty symbolic theology. Is that the pitch from the new messiah? There was nothing in the bible I read about the real Messiah using “leverage”. That theory fits right in with an old joke we had in the world of project management. The planning chart showed all the easy stuff scheduled in detail, then leaped to completion through a block labeled “Then a miracle happens”.

In real life, if people get a windfall they didn’t have to work for the applicable theory is “easy come, easy go”.

In real life, the amount of money [bread and fishes] Obama claims he will have “the rich” render unto Caesar will not come close to having the promised affect. The search for more “seed” bread and fishes will broaden.

In real life, the capital pulled out of the economy [you do recall why it’s called “capitalism”] will squelch economic growth, resulting in the out-year harvest of bread and fishes going into a downward spiral.

In real life, those corporate, capital gains, and dividend taxes the new messiah promises will eat whatever “seed” bread and fishes are still left after the above “economic miracle”.

Since no one will still fish, raise grain, or bake bread if someone just feeds them and punishes any attempt at betterment [read “privilege”], we had best hope your messiah can work with rocks. Mine expected that I use my talents [capital] to better myself. The tithe then expected to help the poor was a lot lower than my current taxes.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 11:45 AM | Report abuse

Chris Cillizza it is no surprize that you would want to put CA, NV, Co, NM in Barack Obama's hands. Chris Cillizza we have been on these boards long enough to read about Barack Obama's racism against Hispanics. Obama does not even dispute this on his website or in public. And since this damaging information has been posted on your blog for as long as Obama has been running for president by chaos45i you have said nothing. It would not be because you and your paper are suppressing it. Just for the record. We all know you would not inform Hispanics if Obama won't. Anything for Obama to win. Right...

Posted by: TheoriginalMoniker | November 3, 2008 11:45 AM | Report abuse

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVEN $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 11:44 AM | Report abuse

Canned La La imagines:

Betty, I know ten thousand or more coal miners in West Virginia this morning who are waking up to read the Spectator and none are millionaires, yet all are questioning any support they may have had for Obama.

-----------------------

LOL.

You know squat. All you do is parrot the evangelical/far right press.

Lie upon distortion upon hate.

Which, in traditional terms, is the devil's work.

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

The West Virginia Record
11-2-08

The senior vice president of the West Virginia Coal Association called Obama's comments "unbelievable."

"His comments are unfortunate," Chris Hamilton said Sunday, "and really reflect a very uninformed voice and perspective to coal specifically and energy generally."

Hamilton noted other times Obama and vice presidential candidate Joe Biden have made seemingly anti-coal statements.

"In Ohio recently, when Joe Biden said 'not here' about building coal-fired power plants -- this is exactly what will happen," Hamilton said. "Financing won't be directed here. It will all go aboard for plants elsewhere in the world. The United Sates is importing more coal today from Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia than we ever have.

"If we're going to create a situation where coal-fired power plants are at that much of a disadvantage, there will be new ones built. But as Biden said, just not here."

Republican presidential candidate John McCain's state director said Obama's statements are troubling, especially for West Virginians.

"I think this clearly shows the attitude the Obama-Biden ticket has toward coal," Ben Beakes(Chief of Staff, WV Secretary of State's Office)said Sunday. "Rhetoric is cheap, but behind closed doors what they tell their supporters - that's what we have to take as gospel.

"They're definitely not friends of coal."

Beakes noted other examples of Obama and Biden making seemingly anti-coal statements, such as in February when Obama said he'd like to tax "dirty energy" such as coal and natural gas.

"And their cohorts in Congress make similar statements," Beakes said. "(Senate Majority Leader) Harry Reid (D-Nevada) said this summer that 'coal makes us sick.'

"This is an attitude and view that, to me, shows their hatred of coal. And therefore, their view would cost West Virginians thousands upon thousands of jobs."

Beakes touted McCain's view toward coal.

"John McCain has embraced coal," Beakes said. "He doesn't agree with everything in the coal industry, but his view of coal is positive. He will make it part of his energy policy. He's met with leaders in the coal industry and let them know that. He's sought advice from coal industry leaders.

"McCain understands that coal supports about 49 percent of our electricity in this country. He'll continue to make coal important. He wants to reduce our foreign dependency on oil."

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Cillizza took 312 in the WaPo Crystal Ball Contest and that makes him among the most pessimistic third. Kos took 390. I have seventeen other predictions and a chance to make your own on my blog:

http://livebythefoma.blogspot.com/2008/11/yepp-yellojkts-election-prediction-pool.html

Posted by: yellojkt | November 3, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Regarding the long lines, thereby denying some voters, for a variety of reasons the opportunity to vote, I suggest that we consider making the national election day every two (or maybe four) years a national holiday. While early voting helps in some places, not every state has early voting and many people plan on election day voting, but stuff happens and they don't get it done.

Posted by: watchingduck | November 3, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Sunday, November 02, 2008
Gateway Pundit
EXPLOSIVE NEW AUDIO-- Obama Promises San Francisco Audience He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry!

ATTN: Coal states Virginia , OHIO, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Montana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana, guess what Obama told San Francisco about you?

from his talk to the San Francisco Chronicle in January 2008:


"Let me sort of describe my overall policy.

What I've said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else's out there.

I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted.

That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches.

The only thing I've said with respect to coal, I haven't been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can.

It's just that it will bankrupt them."

(How Will That Effect Your Electoral Map Chris?)

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

I wish Obama would make ONE STOP in Arizona tonight, say Tuscon or Phoenix. McCain's lead in his homestate is surprisingly low.
----------------------

You no doubt have a more killer sense of politics than I, but I think that would be the equivalent of hitting a man while he is down. I'm glad Obama did not go to Arizona. If he is going to break the partisan gridlock, that is not that way to begin.

He's a better man than that. And I think you are as well.


Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Chris, I think that's a conservative estimate. Our projections here show 400+ electoral votes.

Posted by: bondjedi | November 3, 2008 11:34 AM | Report abuse

"How can anyone who is not a millionaire cheer John McCain, who has said he wants to extend the tax breaks for the wealthiest instead of returning the tax for them to what it was during the Clinton administration, as Obama proposes?"
BettyW1

Betty, I know ten thousand or more coal miners in West Virginia this morning who are waking up to read the Spectator and none are millionaires, yet all are questioning any support they may have had for Obama.
Bill Clinton said in 1988 that removing the cap on social secutity taxes was "regressive...no one wants to." THAT'S Exactly what Obama wants to do- it will hurt small business. Obama cleverly claims that 98% of small businesses make under 250k and therefore won't be hurt. He conveniently leaves out the fact that ALL SMALL businesses are included in his figure- EBAY sellers who work at home by themselves, for example. 50% of all small business INCOME will suffer additional heavy taxes due to Obama's unprecidented move.
His "most aggressive cap and trade policy"- his words- will put tens of thousands of coal workers out of work across the country- New Mexico, Colorado, W. Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginis. WHO WILL EMPLOY THESE PEOPLE? THE SMALL BUSINESSES WHO ARE BEING MORE HEAVILY TAXED?

The NY Times last week covered the horrible jobs picture in Rhode Island- 8.8% unemployment as the state with the highest cumulative business taxes-

Wake up Betty, don't cut off your nose to spite your face, by voting for Obama in order to "stick it" to Exxon/Mobile and in turn ruining the entire job creating small and medium sized business sector in our great country.

Millionaires, like Penny Pritzker and Barbara Streisand can AFFORD to support Obama Betty- we can't.

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 11:33 AM | Report abuse

These beasts are very dangerous when cornered:

I think congress should pass more legislation protecting the American species {fortunatus opulentus}.
They seem to be so rare and growing more so every day. According to the latest studies they number less than 6 million but control forty percent of the wealth.
If Obama becomes president these noble animals will be hunted ruthlessly.
Act now before we lose them to his cruelty.
They are the closest thing we have to royalty.

Posted by: seemstome | November 3, 2008 11:31 AM | Report abuse

I wish Obama would make ONE STOP in Arizona tonight, say Tuscon or Phoenix. McCain's lead in his homestate is surprisingly low.


The more you ask around, the more you learn that most people--from both parties--want to send Sarah Palin back home to Alaska.

Maybe Elizabeth Dole will retire there as well.

Posted by: tony_in_Durham_NC | November 3, 2008 11:27 AM | Report abuse

Obama 53.8%
McCain 46.2%

Obama 365 electoral Votes
McCain 173

Senate +7
House +31

Posted by: leichtman | November 3, 2008 11:26 AM | Report abuse

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Looks like the tightening we saw in PA last week was just a blip. +6, +8, +10, +14 today.

The clock has run out, Senator McCain. Obama's aunt and the coal plant comment aren't game changers.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 11:23 AM | Report abuse

Joe,

You don't get DrV's joke? This is a great spoof on the type of rationalizing and "deep thought" we have been given lately from McCain's deadenders.

It's the foundation of our democracy: "One square mile, one vote."

Posted by: mikeinmidland | November 3, 2008 11:19 AM | Report abuse

Three polls that are current and were very accurate during the Kerry/Bush election are in agreement in that Obama is gaining over the last 3 days. Rasmussen, GWU Battleground and Zogby all have him at 50-52 percent throw in 2 points for independent candidates and that leaves McCain with 46-48 percent.
Now if the Bradley effect supposedly wipes all this away - believe me, people won't buy it. They will know it for what it is, the Bush effect of 2000. There will be long and painful consequences for all.

Posted by: seemstome | November 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Report abuse

"Wait, what? Since when does the land size of the state matter? It's all population, and most of those 'square states' in the middle of the country have less population than the states on the coasts. I'm pretty sure I'd not want to live anywhere that bases its elections on square footage..."

According to RCP, the only states for McCain with double digit EVs are Texas and Tennessee.

Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and Arizona are also there if you include tossup states where McCain is leading. North Carolina, tied in the RCP polls, is also in double digits.

That being said, I'm pretty sure the original post on the winning the majority of total land mass is a joke.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 11:16 AM | Report abuse

Says DrVelocity: "It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA."

Wait, what? Since when does the land size of the state matter? It's all population, and most of those 'square states' in the middle of the country have less population than the states on the coasts. I'm pretty sure I'd not want to live anywhere that bases its elections on square footage...

Posted by: joe_s | November 3, 2008 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Obama 311, McCain 227
Obama 50.6 McCain 47.8
Obama= Kerry+IA+NM+CO+VA+NV+OH
Senate D+6
House D+18

Posted by: Nissl | November 3, 2008 11:04 AM | Report abuse

I agree that because North Carolina is too close to call in the latest polling, it will probably go to McCain. But it ain't over until it's over. It seems many McCain supporters are holding their noses to vote for him. How Dukakis-like!

We plan to celebrate the results in Durham!

http://durhamforobama.org/partyhome.php

Posted by: tony_in_Durham_NC | November 3, 2008 11:02 AM | Report abuse

It is simply outrageous that a candidate could become President without winning a majority of the square miles in the USA.

Posted by: DrVelocity | November 3, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse

I'm ready for the big day. I have a bottle of cheap tequila, in case McCain wins, and a bottle of (sort of) expensive (by my low standards) wine to celebrate if Obama wins. I'm taking a day of leave from work on Wednesday. I figure I'll either be curled up in a fetal position under the covers all day or too excited to concentrate on work.

Go-Bama!

Posted by: lostriver | November 3, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse

BillMillsinSterlingVA writes
"I’m sure we will continue to hear how he will divide the wealth of the top of the top 5% like the bread and fishes to feed us all into the glorious future."

Bill, that's a pretty good metaphor. If you recall the story, they started with just a couple loaves and fish, but were able to feed a large crowd. That's the idea with the Obama economic plan: take a little money from those who have plenty, and use it to create more opportunity for those who have little. The idea is leverage. With a little investment in early childhood development, for example, more poor kids can be prepared for school. Better prepared kids means better studends. Better students means fewere discipline problems. Fewer discipline problems means everybody learns more. When everybody learns more we have a better educated workforce. A better educated workforce means fewer people on welfare, fewer people that resort to crime, and higher productivity for businesses. Higher productivity, lower welfare recipients & lower crime rates mean: higher tax revenue, lower costs for social programs & lower costs to run prisons, court systems & law enforcement in general.

Sounds good to me.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

An Obama win tomorrow would seal his credentials to be Commander in Chief. When he wins, he will have demonstrated that he had the winning strategy - bringing into play new states, enlisted a huge army of grassroots supporters, surrounding himself with good advisors and financing his campaign with small contributions from people who don't otherwise contribute to political campaigns. He needed a super huge war chest to win - after all he was not as well known as McCain. Had he accepted public financing, he would not have been able to carry out his 50 state strategy.

McCain touted himself as the better canddidate to be Commander in Chief, that he is prepared from day one. If he were a capable Commander in Chief, he would have run a tighter campaign and had a better strategy. Instead his strategy was to hold onto those states that Bush won in the last election. He did not demonstrate that he understood the changing landscape of America. He said he would never retreat until the war is won, however in his own campaign he retreated from Michigan. If he were a capable Commander in Chief he would have found a way to remain in Michigan. If he was a person of good judgment he would not have chosen Palin to be his running mate and would have gone with someone with better credentials.

Obama is what America needs at this precarious time - a strategic thinking President who can move America forward not backwards.

Posted by: Nevadaandy | November 3, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

"The fault lies not in the stars, dear Brutus, but in ourselves that we are underlings". William Shakespeare

Democrats, its time to get out from under this twisted version of Republican rule. All is for naught if you don't go to the polls to vote, so don't rest on daydreams, there is one more task to perform, and that is to VOTE !!! No excuses. Take a day off if you need to. From someone who has already voted (voted early), I promise you you'll feel great once you've voted. No regrets here.

Posted by: DrWho2 | November 3, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

We don't see where you get Missouri for McCain. The Redneck Gazette said it was gonna be Obama. They don't take no poles or nothing - they just talks. But we think they is right .....................


http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/11/03/redneck-gazette-obama-gonna-win/

Posted by: glclark4750 | November 3, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

I hope that Chris is wrong about Ohio and North Carolina. Ohio needs to redeem itself. It was Ohio who finally gave is "W." I would love to see Indiana go blue. My ultimate Obama state would be either North Dakota or Montana. Personally, I think Montana would be my favorite.

Despite the "negative" campaigns of the past few days, I still feel that McCain takes the prize. It is fear and scare at every event. It is amazing that McCain ever sat in the Senate with Obama if he is that afraid. Just tune into the events. What you normally hear is cheering and laughter at the Obama-Biden events. You hear booing and some laughter at McCain-Palin events. There is more to "negative" than just mentioning your opponent by name. It is how you mention your opponent. Do you attempt to assassinate his character? I keep hearing McCain say that Obama is measuring the curtains for the Oval office. How pathetic is this? He may be trying to joke, but his attitude does not reflect it.

I'll be glad when I finally get to cast my vote for Obama and Biden tomorrow and then watch as the returns come in tomorrow night. I pray that our country will return to a course of civility and responsibility. Bush has been an utter disgrace. Thank you Christian right for ushering in this terrible 8 years. You have shown that you can really pick them.

Posted by: EarlC | November 3, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Reply

Update (12:28AM, Nov. 3): On Sunday, John McCain launched the final attack of his campaign, a fraudulent assault on Barack Obama that serves as a fitting reminder of the fundamental dishonesty not only of his own campaign, but also of the dishonesty of his allies in the right-wing propaganda establishment: Matt Drudge and FOX News.
All you need to know to understand the video is that the Drudge, FOX, and the McCain campaign joined forces with Newsbusters to push a story that the San Francisco Chronicle had concealed an eleven month old recording that supposedly contained devastating audio of Barack Obama proposing to bankrupt the entire coal industry.
Not only was that story false (more detail below), but it turns out that Barack Obama and John McCain have the same position on clean coal technology, and Ohio's Republican senator said McCain's plan to fight global warming would "put coal out of business." Here's the video:
read the whole story
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/11/ohios-gop-senator-mccain-will.html

THEY COUNT ON IDIOTS LIKE TO TO PASS ON THE LIES AND I GUESS THEY ARE RIGHT.
--------
quote of lies below

Obama’s own words may alter the outcome a bit in PA. Again the truth is found in unscripted speech. If Obama’s pet media had done its job, we would not just be learning such basic information.


Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: popasmoke | November 3, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Charismatic leaders with a seemingly clear, at least to them, philosophy are a good thing, every church should have one.

However, handing over the largest Capitalistic democracy in the world to an enigmatic Socialist with no experience managing anything would be very risky even if we were not at war on two fronts and experiencing a significant economic challenge. Charismatic speeches will just help keep us feeling good as the country goes down the preverbal tube.

Recall that the root of the current economic problem is a now failed socialist experiment in putting people into houses they could not under normal conditions afford. The results of that experiment have been catastrophic, both for the subjects of the experiment and for the nation. “Change” in the form of an even broader socialistic experiment is just “double down” on the same bet we just lost.

Socialism is not a 21st century idea; its “spread the wealth” concept is almost as old as recorded history. Tried big time in the 20th century, it crashed with the Soviet Union. Some people just didn’t get the memo.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 10:38 AM | Report abuse

Obama's comments about the coal industry has been posted, with audio, on the SF Chronicle website since January.

You can look it up!

Posted by: markmovies | November 3, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

I think congress should pass more legislation protecting the American species {fortunatus opulentus}.
They seem to be so rare and growing more so every day. According to the latest studies they number less than 6 million but control forty percent of the wealth.
If Obama becomes president these noble animals will be hunted ruthlessly.
Act now before we lose them to his cruelty.
They are the closest thing we have to royalty.

Posted by: seemstome | November 3, 2008 10:35 AM | Report abuse

Folks,

One too many mouse clicks in Hawaii turned it red rather than blue. Obviously Obama is going to carry his semi-home state.

The map has been corrected to reflect that and Obama now stands at 319 electoral votes to 219 or John McCain.

Chris

Posted by: Chris_Cillizza | November 3, 2008 9:20 AM
__________________________________________

"Sloppy" is first cousin to "lazy".

By the way, how has "Obama's hubris" turned out as an issue, Chris?

This space is as devoid of original reporting as the McCain campaign is devoid of new ideas. I think Chris is simply David Broder in Waiting ("the Dean"? Oh puhleeze?).

Posted by: gbooksdc | November 3, 2008 10:35 AM | Report abuse

BillMills:

It's too late for BHO's coal comments to have any effect up here in PA. Like everyone here, I'm a bit of a political junkie and I've just heard about those remarks.

However, some group calling themselves "The National Republican Trust" is airing ads featuring Rev. Wright's "G-D America" and "U-S-of KKK-A" sermons. THAT might have some effect, particularly in western PA. But there don't seem to be many "undecided" or "persuadable" voters left out there.

Posted by: mnteng | November 3, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

One House

One Car

One Wife

Obama 2008!

Posted by: NMModerate1 | November 3, 2008 10:25 AM | Report abuse

Chris it has been great following the election with you, you have kept many of us up to date and informed. I hope you and Mrs C get some much deserved rest next week.

For any of you that missed this fake call a couple of Canadians comics did with Palin over the weekend saying they were French Pres Sarkozy it is too funny.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcEiR01QK7o&eurl=http://www.towleroad.com/2008/11/governor-sarah.html

Posted by: PatrickNYC1 | November 3, 2008 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Obama’s own words may alter the outcome a bit in PA. Again the truth is found in unscripted speech. If Obama’s pet media had done its job, we would not just be learning such basic information.

Obama’s words: “So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.” Obama said, “That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in wind, solar, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches. The only thing that I have said with respect to coal, I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.”

The only possible source of spin by the Democrats is the sloppy use of the word “that” in his last sentence. As an engineer, I’m clearly not an expert in English. But as a native speaker of the language who has had to parse it carefully for decades to do my job, the intended meaning seems quite clear.

“What I have said is (that) for us to take coal off the table as a ideological matter”
As opposed to saying [that] if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.”

Simplified clear intent:
• “What I have said is” “for us to take coal off the table as a [sic] ideological matter.”
• [I did not say that] ] “if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.”

If I had received his actual quote as a specification of objectives, I would not have felt a need to ask for clarification.

Unlike McCain, who calls for development of clean coal technology, Obama stated we should simply “take coal off the table.” His current comments on the issue are by his own word lies.

Name calling, like “desperate lies” is by now recognized by most people as the standard Democrat response to any unfavorable information. “Last minute” is clearly true, thanks to failure of the media to pursue even basic information on the demonstrated policy intentions of the anointed one.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse

Well everyone seems to agree on one thing - Hawaii should be blue. But, the basic facts are these; McCain has to run the table in the swing states or its a done deal. The polls might be closer than we think, but nobody has McCain ahead. They are not all that badly skewed, believe me. We aren't talking about a win for Senator Obama, we are talking about how big a win. 121 million people voted in 2004 - 50.7% for "W". Registration of new voters plus reactivated bases for both parties will probably produce an additional 10-12 million votes. Lets be conservative and say that the polls are half wrong, that Obama is ahead only by 4% instead of 8-11%. Under that scenario, Obama gets 54% of 130 million votes, or 70.2 million. McCain gets 59.8 million, or 46%. Does anyone honestly believe he can swing 10 million votes in one day? Now granted, the popular vote doesn't win this for anyone - but there is something going on out there and it isn't good for John McCain.

Posted by: BlueDog3 | November 3, 2008 10:14 AM | Report abuse

Today Obama drew a +7, +6, +6, +2 in Ohio and was above 50% in all of them. Give him Ohio.

RCP has a tie in North Carolina. As one of the black heavy states, I think it will end up in the Obama column. Georgia, I don't think so. Indiana, yes, Missouri, yes. Montana, no. Chris' map seems very conservative to me. I think his scenario would be a worst case scenario for Obama.

That brings my total to 376.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 3, 2008 10:08 AM | Report abuse

LONG LINES AT THE POLLS, MACHINE IREGULARITIES:

HOW COME MAINSTREAM MEDIA IGNORES THE WARNING SIGNS?

Why is it that Rachel Maddow of MSNBC is one of the few mainstream journalists who recognizes that the long lines at the polls amount to a de facto poll tax, skewing the results of the election?

Or that reports of electronic voting machine irregularities could be symptomatic of a systemic condition that could be siphoning votes from one candidate to the benefit of another?

And those long lines: There is a phenomenon known as "store mobbing." It's a tactic used by so-called community or gang stalkers to harass and intimidate fellow citizens who are victims of so-called "extrajudicial targeting."

Could we be seeing a variation on this tactic that might be termed "poll mobbing" -- a group of people who arrive at certain targeted polling places to stand in line, extending the time it takes to cast a ballot?

As Maddow remarked on last night's program, how many voters can afford to take several hours off from work to exercise their constitutional right to cast their ballot for the candidate of their choice?

Those would-be voters who are frustrated by the long lines should observe other people in line carefully. Are there people standing in line who, when they get to the front of the line, suddenly drop out and reposition themselves further back in line?

If so, they could be engaging in a crude but effective means of voter suppression.


BUT WILL THE ELECTION EVEN MATTER? Not when government-supported "vigilante injustice" squads are "gang stalking" American citizens, making a mockery of the rule of law:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens
OR members.nowpublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | November 3, 2008 10:07 AM | Report abuse

cooday: I see you bought into the whole messiah thing.

The Great Oz has shown America the shining city, and told us to ignore the man behind the curtain. That’s just the evil McCain and Fox News, busy stirring up vicious lies to distract from the Messiah’s message of truth and hope. I’m sure we will continue to hear how he will divide the wealth of the top of the top 5% like the bread and fishes to feed us all into the glorious future.

Oh, I read that Obama’s team is meeting to decide how to manage expectations after he is actually elected. You didn’t really believe that campaign pitch, did you?

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 10:07 AM | Report abuse

Someone asked a question as to why Chris is posting his final prediction lineup today, rather than tomorrow, the last possible chance to predict before the votes are counted.

I wouldn't want to speak for Chris, but I would endeavor to say that decision has a lot to do with the fact that this blog isn't his only responsibility at the Post -- and Election Day is the busiest day of the year for someone in his line of work. I wouldn't want to put anything extra on my agenda on Election Day.

Posted by: GJonahJameson | November 3, 2008 10:06 AM | Report abuse

soonerthought writes
"please, don't be sore losermen."

You, likewise, should try and demonstrate a bit of grace and, dare I say it, class, and not be a condescending ass in victory.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Democrats and our Obamacan friends courting all Republican and Independent Voters!

Obama’s message rings of a “Beautiful day coming to America” which is similar to Reagan’s “Its morning in america again”

Beautiful day coming to America

U2 - beautiful day
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omFdpnSu57U

Army general Colin Powell and over 70 retired generals and admirals have endorsed Obama/Biden '08

Hope and Change backed by strength.

Our World
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfKdbWwruY

The Mom Vote
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/1197846/4274384

Change we need

Vote Obama/Biden '08

Posted by: cooday | November 3, 2008 9:50 AM | Report abuse

MScarmack writes
"Check your math, Chris. Even if Obama were to lose Hawaii (the phrase snowball's chance in hell comes to mind), Obama would win with 314 EV's, not 315."

MScarmack- you apparently missed the controversial pick that Omaha (aka NE-2) will go to Obama. That is where The Fix picks up the extra electoral vote that your 'math' missed.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Just a word to the McCain folks: when it happens, when the election is called in favor of change, when the last ballot says Obama rather than McCain...I know it will be tough...but please, don't be sore losermen.

Posted by: soonerthought | November 3, 2008 9:45 AM | Report abuse

wbowers: (7:11 AM) very interesting comment, that people in cities have to wait much longer than people in small towns and rural areas, i.e., not enough machines in urban areas (reminds me of the far inferior service ciy people have to endure at the post office). I live in a small town in MD and other than before and after work, voting is a breeze. If McCain wins a very narrow victory because of the inferior voting accomodations in the cities, it won't be a legitimate victory, it will be another stolen presidency.

Posted by: newageblues | November 3, 2008 9:44 AM | Report abuse

How bold for The Fix to pick Ohio & North Carolina for McCain, despite Obama having held the lead in those states for a month, or more. The latest Mason-Dixon poll did show a McCain lead in NC, though its unclear whether Mason-Dixon is a reliable pollster, given their recent work in PA & MN that showed results far different from other pollsters.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2008 9:40 AM | Report abuse

The nonsense being posted by the extreme right wing nuts here demonstrates their ignorance of this nations history and of economics. I would suggest that they actually go and read the writings of Jefferson and Adams and learn f their warnings about unfettered capitalism and banking and investors, in particular. The sort of socialism practiced in the Soviet Union is precisely the sort of big government, big business, big brother nonsense that has been put into place by Bush, the NeoCon's, and their Wall Street allies. That took down our economy and has visited great harm upon the people of this country. Now we are about to elect a government that lives up to the ideals of the Founding Fathers. There is a reason for most of Reagan's former cabinet officials endorsing or voting for Obama, Reagan's chief of staff, Colin Powell, and many others. The Obama voters are the genuine patriots, represent a return to the principles upon which this country was founded. The NeCon-NeoMarxist nuts are treasonous swine.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 3, 2008 9:35 AM | Report abuse

Thatsnuts: Your response sounds like the same liberal name calling. Thanks, though, for the compliment of devoting so much time to attempting to match up the Democrat’s talking points to contents of my post.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 9:29 AM | Report abuse

Chris, your final projection does NOT take in to account a 2-4% difference in the polls for Senator Obama when cell phone only users are included in polling. The effect....

Obama wins:
Montana
N. Dakota
Indiana
Missouri
N. Carolina
Georgia

Take a look at Pollster.com for more information on these stats...

Senator Obama will take close to 400 EV's, take it to the bank....FDIC insured....

Posted by: pgiaquinto | November 3, 2008 9:28 AM | Report abuse

Ohio is experiencing major economic problems and polls currently are showing about a 6% lead for Obama. Things aren't the way they have been in the past - maybe you should consider this.

I would also suggest that North Carolina and Georgia are not voting the way they did in the past either. Early voting has been so heavy in Georgia that it approximately equals the ENTIRE turnout for the 2002 election. The African American component of the vote so far in 2008 is 35%, while it was only 24% in 2004 and 23% of the final vote in 2002. This is more than enough to wipe out any statewide Republican candidate.

North Dakota should also be on everyone's radar. There have been polls with Obama leading, although it's by no means a done deal.

You seem to have Hawaii voting for McCain on your map. I assume this is just some sloppy mistake?

Posted by: nyinvestingmeetup | November 3, 2008 9:27 AM | Report abuse

Sarkozy has convinced Sarah he'll vote absentee for Palin and That Other Guy (the Second Dude).

Posted by: bdunn1 | November 3, 2008 9:24 AM | Report abuse

NavadaWillis: Socialism is not a "rising star"; its “spread the wealth” concept is almost as old as recorded history. Tried big time in the 20th century, it crashed with the Soviet Union. Some people just didn’t get the memo.

Trusting this ideologue and the present radical leftist congress to implement their version of “change” is likely to cause damage from which it will take this nation decades, if ever, to recover.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 9:21 AM | Report abuse

Folks,

One too many mouse clicks in Hawaii turned it red rather than blue. Obviously Obama is going to carry his semi-home state.

The map has been corrected to reflect that and Obama now stands at 319 electoral votes to 219 or John McCain.

Chris

Posted by: Chris_Cillizza | November 3, 2008 9:20 AM | Report abuse

Chris, why wouldn't you wait to issue your final final tomorrow morning after assessing today's developments? The movements may be small, but some states are close. For example, the most debatable call in your mix is probably Ohio. If the Post's own polls are right in forecasting around a 10 point popular vote spread, Obama is going to get Ohio.

Posted by: erickoe | November 3, 2008 9:19 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii red? Chris, if you are a political junky, then how the heck can you make Hawaii red? When was the last time Hawaii voted Republican? That ridiculous error makes your whole post suspect.

Posted by: barbnc | November 3, 2008 9:18 AM | Report abuse

wpost is correct that McC - MDH would have been a stronger ticket, but it would not have carried HI, and posters have been asking CC to correct this oversight for three hours!

Posted by: mark_in_austin | November 3, 2008 9:17 AM | Report abuse

Dorchester
I can't imagine how you would post such nonsense - but that is the nature of our rights here in the USA. Any racist, know nothing can post- or run as VP.

Posted by: silverspring25 | November 3, 2008 9:11 AM | Report abuse

I believe Ohio and North Carolina, as well as Montana and North Dakota, will end up in the Obama column tomorrow night. Hawaii obviously will be blue, not red, as I assume Chris realizes.

And guess what? Georgia's going blue, baby! I put that in my prediction map weeks ago, and at the time it seemed like a stretch, but now it looks like it may actually happen :)

Posted by: ASinMoCo | November 3, 2008 9:05 AM | Report abuse

I appreciate for cautious approach. But, Chris, you forgot to paint Hawaii, Ohio and...yes...even Missouri BLUE.

Posted by: mytake1 | November 3, 2008 9:04 AM | Report abuse

Chris,
I think what you have outline is more likely the minimum case for Obama. It all depends on ground game now and whether the Obama machine can match, or even top, the traditional great Republican get-out-the-vote effort. If all the enthusiasm Obama seems to have generated really does translate into massive Democratic turnout, then Obama will easily carry Ohio and North Carolina and could pick up several other states as well. In that case, his electoral vote count could top 370. If Obama ground game turns out to be more smoke than fire, then 315 is a good number.
(And fix Hawaii).

Posted by: wmw4 | November 3, 2008 9:04 AM | Report abuse

For those who find it interesting, Obama now leads Mccain on intrade by an unbelievable 80+ points, Mccain is almost in single digits now.

Posted by: popasmoke | November 3, 2008 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Interesting that the Obama paranoia still flourishes with such passion. Here comes socialism, capitulating to the Muslim terrorists, capitulating to the black Christian "radicals," redistributing American wealth.

Yesterday at Costco I overheard a father obsessively lecturing his teenage daughter that the first thing Obama is going to do is change the Constitution so that people can't have firearms to protect their homes. Seems like some of our good citizens need to go back to Civics 101 and spend less time listening to Rush Limbaugh.

The reality is that a former senior speaker on Constitutional Law might turn out to have more respect for our founding fathers' work product than we have seen from the President and Congress in years. If you're worried about your rights, you really ought to worry about protecting the authority of our constitution.

Besides, the world isn't likely to end regardless as to who gets elected. However if the Democrats get handed the reins it's a likely wakeup call for both parties - that being aloof and disconnected from the electorate can result in a nasty voter reaction and a change in the majority. If we really want problems straightened out in this country then we'd better continue to pay attention as an electorate and keep all the politicians' feet to the fire. They need to know if they become euphoric and start disrespecting the American people, they may suffer the boot next.

I was Barry Goldwater in my junior high school's "1964 election." You don't get much more conservative than that. And I recognize that John McCain has given wonderful service to his country. But when you're in trouble as this country is, it somehow makes more sense to catch hold of a rising star rather than a setting sun.

Posted by: NevadaWillis | November 3, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

Isn't Hawai'i supposed to be BLUE?

Posted by: mudnstars | November 3, 2008 8:48 AM | Report abuse

Umm...I don't think John McCain is going to carry Hawaii.

Posted by: JanD1 | November 3, 2008 8:48 AM | Report abuse

Well Chris:

I think that you are being prudent in your final electoral map --even cautious. Nonetheless, I concur with your assessment if not with your spread.

I think that Ohio and North Carolina are closer to Obama than you give them credit and I would keep an eye on Montana. The Big Sky State is not given to radical views like those expressed by the diehard twits and right-wing nut-jobs that persist in polluting your comment section by dredging up the silly and childish canards about flag pins and national anthem pledges.

The story tomorrow might still be the crowds and the failure of polling places to be able to handle a crush of voters.

In all, a righteous conclusion -- now we wait with you to see the margin of victory.

Posted by: gandalfthegrey | November 3, 2008 8:40 AM | Report abuse


gschwartz1


The truth is Obama justs wants to get in with the LIBERAL CLASS of the country - he does not have a history of fighting with these people.


You are going to be very saddly disappointed.

If you were smart enough to do your research you would have found that McCain has been in favor of FIGHTING THE LOBBYISTS IN WASHINGTON AND BRINGING TO YOU EVERYTHING YOU WANT.


Obama is going to make a mess of this country.

Liberalism almost destroyed this country - look at almost every major city which descended into crime - people moved to the suburbs - since REAGAN the cities have rebounded and this nation is strong again


You want to see our country run from fights in the Middle East.

McCain will not leave a war until we have won.


The liberals want to cut and run - and then let the terrorists run wild - just like Bill Clinton allowed al queda to grow during the 1990s.

You are not mature enough to make decisions for this country - and the Obama supporters are hurting themselves - watch the high taxes of Obama hurt this nation and then see what happens.

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 8:38 AM | Report abuse

Now imagine how this map would have looked had McCain picked Romney or Lieberman.

Obama would probably grab GA, NC, MO, AR, TN, LA and maybe even AL, SC and TX but lose FL, NH, WI, MN, PA, VA, MI, WA, OR and maybe even MA, CT and RI all depending on how Paul and Huckabee reacted (guessing they would run as third party candidates and split the Republican votes in the South).

Posted by: Southeasterner

------------------

Couldn't disagree more.

The only reason McCain has any traction whatsoever is Palin...who electrified the base.

Neither Romney nor Lieberman would have done that. In fact, they would have alienated the base, esp the evangelicals.

Now, Huckabee is a different story.

He would have given McCain both the base and conservative Independents.

McCain/Huckabee would have been a very powerful ticket indeed.

But the entire discussion highlights the most important point: McCain makes poor, even disastrous, executive decisions.

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 8:35 AM | Report abuse

For months I have been writing on this blog in support of Barack Obama. I have tried to push back on the lies and offer some arguments of why Mr. Obama is the right man and John Mccain is not. I don't really have any words left but I want to leave you with this.

BEFORE YOU VOTE VISIT THIS WEBSITE

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/

BEFORE YOU VOTE YOU MUST READ THIS INFORMATION.

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/cin_declassified_landing.htm

BEFOTE YOU VOTE YOU MUST WATCH THIS DOCUMENTARY

http://www.mccainbetrayspows.com/

Posted by: popasmoke | November 3, 2008 8:35 AM | Report abuse

test

Posted by: popasmoke | November 3, 2008 8:34 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii to McCain? NO WAY.

Add 4 more to Obama, deduct 4 from McCain. 365 to 173 - a real thumpin'.

Posted by: AndyfromVA | November 3, 2008 8:32 AM | Report abuse

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If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


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Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 8:30 AM | Report abuse

to USA 3:

Are you ready for this?

Yes, I am ready for an end to eight years of:

Lying to the American public to start a war in which 4,000 Americans were killed and tens of thousands severely wounded for the wrong war.

Subverting the federal court system with "activist" judges whose main criteria is not adherence to the law or constitution but to far right principles.

Eroding our healthcare system to the point where the U.S. now ranks last among 19 other industrial countries in preventable deaths.

Turning over energy policy to oil companies who hold meetings in secret with the vice president.

Undermining the constitution through massive surveillance of American citizens and torture of prisoners.

Tax breaks to corporations that shift jobs overseas and overall policies that have led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Redistribution of the nation's wealth from working families to the CEOs and the wealthy.

Hastening the dangers of climate change by mocking science and abandoning international treaties.

Subverting the right to vote by eight years of voter suppression campaigns.

Undermining FEMA to the point where it could stand by and ignore the drowning of an American city.

Treating Americans who dissent or hold different views as un-American.

Yes, I'm ready for a change in Washington. So are the majority of other voters as poll after poll attests.

Posted by: gschwartz1 | November 3, 2008 8:27 AM | Report abuse

I agree with your map except that I would assign Ohio and North Carolina to Obama. Ohio is definitely trending towards Obama - the latest poll shows him with a 6 point lead. North Carolina will be close but Obama benefits greatly from the enthusiasm of black voters and young voters, many of whom have voted early. This would add 35 to Obama for a total of 350, and subtract 35 from McCain, giving him 188. One other state that might just go Obama's way is Indiana. In that case Obama would have 361 and McCain 177.

Posted by: AndyfromVA | November 3, 2008 8:27 AM | Report abuse

In response to USA3's comment.

As a non-American, a European and as an Irishman, I can only hope that every word mentioned in your quotation of Obama is true , and that he will carry out what he has promised(Except for changing your flag, I do actually like it). What is wrong with respecting other nations? I might remind you that Muslims are people too, they deserve every bit of respect that any other person deserves. In my opinion Obama as president is what the world needs. (Although I fully acknowledge that he likely to be a domestic President).

Posted by: coldrav3n | November 3, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Chris - I am not sure why you are giving Ohio to McCain since all the latest reputable polls as of 11/2 have Obama winning the state. Both Reuters/Zogby and Quinnipiac have Obama winning by 6 or 7 points and the Columbus Dispatch poll from 10/31 has him winning by 6 points . . all healthy margins and outside the margin for error. The only poll that has McCain ahead is Mason-Dixon, which appears to be some sort of fluke, but if not McCain is up by only 2.5 points, which is about the margin of error. All polls give Obama a huge lead in early voting, so I think Ohio will go Obama albeit by a slim margin but Bush "won" here by only 2 points. The Real Clear Politics average has Obama up 3.5 points as of today. Ohio is going Blue this time around I think.

Posted by: JerryinDayton | November 3, 2008 8:24 AM | Report abuse

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McCain wins Virginia, Florida and Pennsylvania.


McCain can also win with Virginia, Florida and Colorado-New Hampshire combo.


McCain is going to win this election.

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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

I really don't think North Carolina, Ohio, or Missouri is going to be that close. I'd be surprised if McCain got more than 48 percent in either of those three states. Indiana may be a bit closer. But, Sen. Obama will win it. Chris gave McCain the benefit of the doubt in a lot of these swing states. This isn't 2004 anymore though. If Obama wins by at least six or seven points, he's going to pick off some more states, too (Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, Arizona, Louisiana maybe).

Posted by: jdunph1 | November 3, 2008 8:22 AM | Report abuse

USA 3:

Senator Obama replied:
"As I've said about the flag pin, I don't want to be perceived as taking sides". "There are a lot of people in the world to whom the American flag is a symbol of oppression."
"The anthem itself conveys a war-like message. You know, the bombs bursting in air and all that sort of thing."
ARE YOU READY FOR THIS???
Obama said: "The National Anthem should be 'swapped' for something less parochial and less bellicose. I like the song 'I'd Like To Teach the World To Sing'. If that were our anthem, then, I might salute it.


---------------------------


USA3 is typical of the Palin idiot. And no, this is not an ad hominem attack, uSA3 is a demonstrable idiot..doing no research before posting items that have been proven false over and over again. This is what happens when intelligence is disrespected.

Re: the crappola USA3 posted:

It's satire written by syndicated columnist John Semmens, whose columns are posted on the Web site The Arizona Conservative. It was part of a short item Semmens wrote in October 2007, imagining a rationale for the oft-emailed photo of Obama not having his hand over his heart during the national anthem .

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 8:22 AM | Report abuse

Obama will win the popular vote and the electoral vote. His leadership qualities and his judgement have been exemplified in the way his campaign has been run.

McCain lost control of his campaign a long while ago. The Republican campaign has been all about 'dirty innuendo.' We saw that negative pattern 'set up' in Sarah's convention acceptance speech. Yes, she has definitely proved herself to be a "pit-bull with lipstick."

I guess they will blame Sarah when McCain loses the election. (Or, maybe they will they blame Katie Couric?) I will blame McCain! He should have been at the helm all the way, in charge, leading and steering his campaign to victory. Instead, he has been drowning in the bad choices of the campaign people whom he had chosen.

McCain has 'come across' as an angry, frustrated, old man, not the man who was respected in the past, the man with dignity, and with the leadership qualities of a 'war hero.'

McCain may be seeing RED on the electoral map, but he will be singing the Blues when the election is over!

Posted by: jlo2 | November 3, 2008 8:21 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii has always been considered a "blue" state. Fivethirtyeight.com indicates that both Ohio and Virginia will probably go for Obama, and there's about a 50/50 chance that NC will too, giving Obama well over the electoral count that the Post has projected. Either way, it looks like there's going to be a mandate for change tomorrow!

Posted by: Bendal | November 3, 2008 8:17 AM | Report abuse

Now imagine how this map would have looked had McCain picked Romney or Lieberman.

Obama would probably grab GA, NC, MO, AR, TN, LA and maybe even AL, SC and TX but lose FL, NH, WI, MN, PA, VA, MI, WA, OR and maybe even MA, CT and RI all depending on how Paul and Huckabee reacted (guessing they would run as third party candidates and split the Republican votes in the South).

Posted by: Southeasterner | November 3, 2008 8:17 AM | Report abuse

Once Hawaii gets flipped, the electoral math shifts to a 319-219 edge for Obama. After the last 2 nail bitter presidential elections, a triple digit win would really be something. Chris - would you ever have thought this was even possible 2 years ago, no matter who the candidates were?

Posted by: jelliotb | November 3, 2008 8:16 AM | Report abuse

Assuming Hawaii is a graphic mistake, the rest looks good.

And what a beautiful thing it will be!

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 3, 2008 8:12 AM | Report abuse

Senator Obama replied:
"As I've said about the flag pin, I don't want to be perceived as taking sides". "There are a lot of people in the world to whom the American flag is a symbol of oppression."
"The anthem itself conveys a war-like message. You know, the bombs bursting in air and all that sort of thing."
ARE YOU READY FOR THIS???
Obama said: "The National Anthem should be 'swapped' for something less parochial and less bellicose. I like the song 'I'd Like To Teach the World To Sing'. If that were our anthem, then, I might salute it. In my opinion, we should consider reinventing our National Anthem as well as 'redesign' our Flag to better offer our enemies hope and love. It's my intention, if elected, to disarm America to the level of acceptance to our Middle East Brethren. If we, as a Nation of waring people, conduct ourselves as the nations of Islam where peace prevails - - - perhaps a state or period of mutual accord could exist between our governments ."
When I become President, I will seek a pact or
agreement to end hostilities between those who have been at war or in a state of enmity, and a freedom from disquieting oppressive thoughts. We as a Nation have placed upon the nations of Islam an unfair injustice which is WHY my Wife disrespects the Flag and she and I have attended several flag burning ceremonies in the past".
"Of course now, I have found myself about to become the President of the United States and I have put my hatred aside. I will use my power to bring CHANGE to this Nation, and offer the people a new path. My wife and I look forward to becoming our Country's First black Family. Indeed, CHANGE is about to overwhelm the United States of America "
NOBAMA08

Posted by: USA3 | November 3, 2008 8:12 AM | Report abuse

Problem for McCain is that he needs literally everything to fall his way tomorrow. He needs to overcome the huge advantage Obama has built up in early voting in key states and then somehow hold him off in nearly every red states while managing to overcome 10 points in Pennsylvania.

No way this is going to happen...

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: parkerfl1 | November 3, 2008 8:08 AM | Report abuse

Do people change their mind on the final day?
No.
Here's why:
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/11/do-people-change-their-minds-on-last.html

Posted by: caraprado1 | November 3, 2008 8:05 AM | Report abuse

test

Posted by: popasmoke | November 3, 2008 8:00 AM | Report abuse

The early voting canvass in North Carolina is significantly more pro-Obama than that of Florida, so if anything I think you've got those two reversed. Obama will win OH and MT and very possibly GA, and I like his chances to take both of NC and FL.

Hawaii must have been a mistake, or something.

Posted by: TheKeyGrip | November 3, 2008 7:59 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA

#1. Obama did not reject the label of “Socialist”. Now that he has been outed by “Joe the plumber”, that would be difficult. He just said that those who are not Socialists are just “selfish”!

#2. We now know that the “Change you can count on” Obama promises is from Capitalism to Socialism.

#3 We don’t have that information because the “media” are part of his campaign, rather than part of our expected “checks and balances”.

#4. Combined with far left Harry Reed and Nancy Pelosi, Obama has the potential to cause unprecedented damage to this country.

So, I just have to comment on these items from your post Bill.

1. Outed by "Joe the Plumber". I thought it was clearly shown that Joe, real name Sam, isn't a plumber, wasn't buying a business with income, to it's owner, over $250,000. So, are you saying Obama was outed by a FRAUD. That is pretty naive.

2. Obama will change the country from Democracy to Socialism. Now really Bill, didn't our current President invoke socialism with our financial disaster? If it okay for the Republican office holder, why not for a Democratic contender?

3. You might have a bit of an arguement with regard to the press. If it can be said a particular media outlet favors Mr. Obama, it is surely a well known thing that Fox is the outlet favoring Republican ideas.

#4. I have to say I am not the biggest fan of Ms. Pelosi. I think she is a little too far to the left. (yes democrats do like moderation). Mr. Reid however, is a much more pragmatic person.

Reading your post I wonder how you are able to overlook the excesses, financially, Consitutionally, ethically and morally, perpetrated by the current administration, whom I would bet you voted for twice.

Here is what I think you are up against Bill. Since the disgraceful election of 2004 the Democrats have learned how to run a campaign better than the Republicans. Your anger clearly reflects the confusion of a party doing the same old thing only now getting a very different result.

And they say the public has a short memory. Sorry, Thatsnuts.

Posted by: Thatsnuts | November 3, 2008 7:57 AM | Report abuse

Bill Mills
How much more damage can be caused by the democrats that hasn't already been caused by Bush, Cheney, Delay, Gingrich, Reagan, Hassert, Abramoff, Gonzalas, Rove, Robertson, Falwell, etc. - should I go on because the republican list of criminals and scoundrals is very long.

Posted by: swal3711 | November 3, 2008 7:48 AM | Report abuse

response to: (WinterDog | November 3, 2008 7:21 AM)

Several years ago visiting my friend's cabin in Bedford, Penn.--not to be confused with Bedford Falls in "It's a Wonderful Life." We were flipping through one of the high school kids' yearbooks. Interestingly, there were 2 African-American students in the entire school, and they were brothers--literally. Not everyone in the Midwest and South are racist. However, racism tends to be more prevalent there for two different reasons. Of course, there was slavery in the South for hundreds of years. The midwest can be best described as insular. Outside of the big cities, people simply don't have much exposure to diversity. There's that saying that it's harder to hate people/races if you don't know them. In small towns, you simply have less exposure to people of different "races," religions, etc. I wouldn't say that it's particularly a white vs. black phenomenon that creates the red and blue blocks on the electoral map. It's more of a urban/rural dychotemy. Even in Democratic Maryland, you can win statewide elections by winning PG/Montgomery/Baltimore/Baltimore Counties, and losing all the rest--which often happens. Anyhow, race is definitely a factor in the rural/urban dychotemy. White flight is a reality. And it's not racist to say that property values in certain areas decrease when minorities start moving into them. THEY DO, because of institutionalized racism. Dems are still making progress in the Midwest and South. The Deep South will take longer to put into play. Look at Ford, who ran for Senator in Tenn. He ran a FLAWLESS, centrist campaign, but virtually lost due to a Republican ad that suggested he was a threat to "white female purity."

Posted by: con_crusher | November 3, 2008 7:46 AM | Report abuse

To be so involved in the data so intimately and for so long and to be so far off the actual results will demand an explanation to Fix readers on Wednesday. You're supposed to be better than we are at this game, Chris, way better.

This type of Washington groupthink is what got us into Iraq in the first place. Why is it so hard to connect the dots?

Posted by: optimyst | November 3, 2008 7:46 AM | Report abuse

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Chris:

This is a demographic election - trends will affect states by demograhpic - Italians, Irish and Seniors will break hard for McCain and Sarah Palin - the pollsters have had their models wrong.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 3, 2008 7:43 AM | Report abuse

WinterDog says: >>> Obama is forecast to win just 24 states, and virtually none of the middle/south of the country. What does that say about what he must do in his Presidency? <<< What is says, given Bush's record is that he cannot simply ignore 'The Losers', no matter how sore they are... 'The Winners' don't need to 'cave' to the conservatives, but simply negotiate with them just as if they were Iranians or North Koreans or Hugo Chavez. Obama loses nothing by talking to and with 'The Losers'. He loses if he simply steamrollers them like GW did with non-conservatives....

Posted by: tbrucia | November 3, 2008 7:41 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii’s livelihood is derived from rich tourists. After the wealth is “spread”, the common denominator will probably be subsistence level. They probably don’t get a lot of business from places with subsistence level economies. They may remember better than continental US that “Berry’s” father figure, Hawaii resident Frank Marshall Davis, was a Marxist.

Obama did not reject the label of “Socialist”. Now that he has been outed by “Joe the plumber”, that would be difficult. He just said that those who are not Socialists are just “selfish”!

We now know that the “Change you can count on” Obama promises is from Capitalism to Socialism. Recall that he keeps saying what we have been trying isn’t working? He did say at the start of this campaign he would offer “a very different vision” for our nation.

The only real issue is that while the Socialists share a common premise; that Capitalism results in an unfair distribution of wealth, solutions range from Marxist to mild intervention. The unknown is the degree of “social interventionism” Obama intends. We don’t have that information because the “media” are part of his campaign, rather than part of our expected “checks and balances”. Recall though that his “father figure” Frank Marshall Davis and his long time friend Bill Ayres were Marxists. By their philosophy, Socialism is just an intermediate state in the path to full “sharing”.

With just what Obama is preaching from his current pulpit, the Democrats have now turned a full 180 degrees. They have anointed the anti-Kennedy. The new call to America’s youth? “Ask not what you can do for your country; ask what your country can do for you!”

Have a job? Joe Biden has told you your patriotic duty is to pay more taxes.

Combined with far left Harry Reed and Nancy Pelosi, Obama has the potential to cause unprecedented damage to this country.

Posted by: BillMillsinSterlingVA | November 3, 2008 7:34 AM | Report abuse

BREAKING: Gallup's LAST and FINAL (they will go dark after this) poll (acc. to DailyKos):

Barack H. Obama up 11 among likely voters, 13 among registered voters. We may have a Reaganesque electoral map.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/2/224540/031/473/650417

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Senator Obama, would you kindly step over here so I may administer the oath of office...

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 3, 2008 7:23 AM | Report abuse

I thnk the most fascinating element of this map is how it played out. Obama is forecast to win just 24 states, and virtually none of the middle/south of the country. What does that say about what he must do in his Presidency? It clearly cannot be chalked up to racism or some other sweeping sop assessment. How does a Democratic Congress/President govern when such a large portion of the country does not "sign on" to the program? If the invective I see in the responses to Washpost articles is any indication, the Democrats are going to have a hard time winning them over, and can't successfully govern by writing them off.

Posted by: WinterDog | November 3, 2008 7:21 AM | Report abuse

A few amendments - Hawaii will be blue (assuming that's a "typo" on the map). Ohio and Missouri will also be blue.

Posted by: con_crusher | November 3, 2008 7:16 AM | Report abuse

You need to fix Hawaii on your map, that is definitely going to Obama. I also think Ohio will go to him, he's up in every poll there except for the Mason-Dixon one which always leans right. Obama was in Cleveland last night and 80,000 people showed up to just one rally. That is more than all the people who showed up at McCain and Palin rallies in Ohio combined!

Posted by: WallStreetNobody | November 3, 2008 7:15 AM | Report abuse

I live right outside Charlotte NC. The Charlotte area voted for Kerry in 04. The rural parts of the state goes Republican. Anyway, the voter turnout in Charlotte on Saturday for early voting was so heavy that my sister waited for 4 hours and was told that it would be about 2 or 3 more hours before she could get to vote. She had to leave and will try again Tuesday. My point is that Democrats have to wait in long lines in Charlotte and it has affected the vote. Obama has more supporters than can vote. But in the county I live in (Union County) the vote is heavily for McCain and the wait times are about 5 minutes. Most of the state is still small towns and farms. If the Republicans win NC it is because urban areas do not have enough voting machines.

Posted by: wbowers | November 3, 2008 7:11 AM | Report abuse

Uh, Hawaii for McCain, Chris? It's been a long campaign and you were tired when you posted this. What you have listed is nearly a worst case scenario for Obama (leaving aside the Hawaii error). His ground game will yield him at least one more state from North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana - and maybe all of them. He will even come very close in Georgia and Arizona. It is going to be a wipe out, my friends...

Posted by: johnsonc2 | November 3, 2008 7:03 AM | Report abuse

I couldn't figure out why our maps were the same but our results were different. I have Obama 318, McCain 220.

I fugure Hawaii is a typo...it will be one of Obama's biggest states, and I did not include the Omaha district.

Now prepare for the flames over the Hawaii mistake...and who know, we could all look silly tomorrow might.

This is exciting, and it is all over tomorrow night.

Then we get to start all over again.

Mike

Posted by: mikedow1 | November 3, 2008 7:03 AM | Report abuse

I agree that Ohio and North Carolina will go BLUE; as well as Montana!

The Republican Party will survive this blowout. Conservatism will not. This is the end of conservatism as a viable political philosophy. Why is this? One, look at the past eight years. Secondly, and more importantly, one cannot have detest in their heart (conservatives for government), and then expect to succeed in when placed in control over that entity. America need mature people who understand the role of civil society in our communities and cities, states and the country, and abroad. We will see a magnificent era of progressivism, beginning in January, 2009.

Posted by: mainetimes | November 3, 2008 7:02 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii must be a graphical mistake. And I see that the map awards one EV from Nebraska to Obama, NE-2 which is Omaha city.

Posted by: abragad | November 3, 2008 6:55 AM | Report abuse

Chris,

This is what we call over this side of the pond "bottling it". I think you're hedging your bets here. How can you say McCain will win Ohio? the map will look closer to the RCP "no toss up states", with Obama just missing out in MO and IN. c. 350 electoral college votes, minimum

Posted by: BritishLiberalDemocrat | November 3, 2008 6:53 AM | Report abuse

With 38% of registered voters having already cast their ballots in North Carolina, I would not be giving it to McCain.

Posted by: dnjake | November 3, 2008 6:52 AM | Report abuse

Eh brah! No way McSame gonna win Hawaii. We might have a GOP guv for the time being, but keep in mind, during the 60s she ran naked with the hippies in Maui. McSame? Naaaahhh. Barack no ka best!

Posted by: laboo | November 3, 2008 6:45 AM | Report abuse

Check your math, Chris. Even if Obama were to lose Hawaii (the phrase snowball's chance in hell comes to mind), Obama would win with 314 EV's, not 315.

Posted by: MScarmack | November 3, 2008 6:40 AM | Report abuse

Chris,
I don't agree with you regarding Ohio, Hawaii and North Carolina. Are you being conservative in your picks? I predict Obama with 340.

Posted by: ralves | November 3, 2008 6:35 AM | Report abuse

Why is Hawaii for McCain? Obama is going to win Hawaii easily.

Posted by: mjv3 | November 3, 2008 6:28 AM | Report abuse

Wow. I've been tracking the upcoming elections through The Fix for a long time. And now it's over!

Thanks for the efforts, Chris. It's interesting that, in the end, you put Ohio and North Carolina in the McCain column. I can't say I disagree with you, but I think there's a good chance they'll go blue tomorrow. What's interesting about it, though, is the thought that, thanks to Obama's massive campaign operation and the aggressive way he's targeted red states this cycle, North Carolina is even part of the conversation, and the GOP nominee could pick up Ohio and still lose the race by a hundred electoral votes. Quite a change from the past two presidential elections, no?

Posted by: manalive | November 3, 2008 6:26 AM | Report abuse

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