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The Fix's Crystal Ball Predictions

Long ago, when The Fix was nothing but a twinkle in the eye of John Harris, Russ Walker and Jim Brady, we expectantly waited for the Sunday before the election for the Post's Crystal Ball Contest.

Starting way back in 1982, the Post's Outlook Section has asked a group of political professionals and personalities to make their predictions about the outcome of the election. Past winners have included Hotline head honcho Amy "Amo" Walter in 2000, Republican strategy guru Mary Matalin in 1994, and "Hardball" host Christ Matthews -- a dual winner in 1988 and 1990.

So, you imagine The Fix's excitement when the powers-that-be asked if yours truly would be a part of this year's Crystal Ball Contest. Naturally, we leapt at the chance.

Our picks can be found here as well as those of our fellow competitors including the incomparable Arianna Huffington, Republican strategist Ed Rollins and Politico national politics editor Charlie Mahtesian.

Agree or disagree with our picks? Have some of your own? The crystal ball -- er -- comments section awaits.

By Chris Cillizza  |  November 1, 2008; 8:35 PM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Did the Debates Matter?
Next: McCain Sells His Campaign on "SNL"

Comments

Obama will win by 11.6% popular vote margin over McCain.

Let us put this in some historical context.


1) Bill Clinton's 5.6-point win over President George H.W. Bush in 1992
2) George Bush's 7.7-point win over Michael Dukakis in 1988
3) Bill Clinton's 8.5-point win over Sen. Bob Dole in 1996
4) Ronald Reagan's 9.7-point victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980
5) Gen. Dwight Eisenhower's 10.9-point win over Adlai Stevenson in 1952
6) Barack Obama ‘s 11.6 point VICTORY over John McCain in 2008

BIGGEST POPULAR VOTE VICTORY MARGIN EVER RECORDED IN US HISTORY.

Posted by: YesWeCanForFREE | November 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Obama will win by 11.6% popular vote margin over McCain.

Let us put this in some historical context.


1) Bill Clinton's 5.6-point win over President George H.W. Bush in 1992
2) George Bush's 7.7-point win over Michael Dukakis in 1988
3) Bill Clinton's 8.5-point win over Sen. Bob Dole in 1996
4) Ronald Reagan's 9.7-point victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980
5) Gen. Dwight Eisenhower's 10.9-point win over Adlai Stevenson in 1952
6) Barack Obama ‘s 11.6 point VICTORY over John McCain in 2008

BIGGEST POPULAR VOTE VICTORY MARGIN EVER RECORDED IN US HISTORY.

Posted by: YesWeCanForFREE | November 3, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 11:08 PM | Report abuse

============================


dauchesta, you use the same old, same old. what is social security? what about mccain being challenged? tell me about mccain's executive experience?

Posted by: bernedroy | November 3, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 11:08 PM | Report abuse

The West Virginia Record
11-2-08

The senior vice president of the West Virginia Coal Association called Obama's comments "unbelievable."

"His comments are unfortunate," Chris Hamilton said Sunday, "and really reflect a very uninformed voice and perspective to coal specifically and energy generally."

Hamilton noted other times Obama and vice presidential candidate Joe Biden have made seemingly anti-coal statements.

"In Ohio recently, when Joe Biden said 'not here' about building coal-fired power plants -- this is exactly what will happen," Hamilton said. "Financing won't be directed here. It will all go aboard for plants elsewhere in the world. The United Sates is importing more coal today from Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia than we ever have.

"If we're going to create a situation where coal-fired power plants are at that much of a disadvantage, there will be new ones built. But as Biden said, just not here."

Republican presidential candidate John McCain's state director said Obama's statements are troubling, especially for West Virginians.

"I think this clearly shows the attitude the Obama-Biden ticket has toward coal," Ben Beakes(Chief of Staff, WV Secretary of State's Office)said Sunday. "Rhetoric is cheap, but behind closed doors what they tell their supporters - that's what we have to take as gospel.

"They're definitely not friends of coal."

Beakes noted other examples of Obama and Biden making seemingly anti-coal statements, such as in February when Obama said he'd like to tax "dirty energy" such as coal and natural gas.

"And their cohorts in Congress make similar statements," Beakes said. "(Senate Majority Leader) Harry Reid (D-Nevada) said this summer that 'coal makes us sick.'

"This is an attitude and view that, to me, shows their hatred of coal. And therefore, their view would cost West Virginians thousands upon thousands of jobs."

Beakes touted McCain's view toward coal.

"John McCain has embraced coal," Beakes said. "He doesn't agree with everything in the coal industry, but his view of coal is positive. He will make it part of his energy policy. He's met with leaders in the coal industry and let them know that. He's sought advice from coal industry leaders.

"McCain understands that coal supports about 49 percent of our electricity in this country. He'll continue to make coal important. He wants to reduce our foreign dependency on oil."


Posted by: thecannula | November 2, 2008 9:33 PM | Report abuse

I'm a middle aged guy- many years to work- I believe in paying my fair share- I would not complain about a rise in my income tax during this economic crisis....BUT Obama is proposing something way beyond that- his wanting to "spread the wealth around" includes removing the payroll tax cap on Soc. security taxes, a move which Democratic Economic hero Bill Clinton called "Regressive" because it is regressive...the more a small business owner profits, the more she's taxed...it will lead to layoffs in my business and in many many others. Obama wants to send my additional tax dollars to those who currently pay no income tax....and he will have more and more former employees to send checks to. He also will raise business taxes- which we will all pay. He doesn't care- he supports corn ethanol which helps Illinois farmers, makes us all pay higher food prices, and does nothing to reduce our dependence on foreign oil- uses one unit petrol for every one it saves.

So, he's obviously more motivated by what's best for Barack Obama than what's best for America...and IF you're supporting him, he's obviously also successful in fooling you and those like you.


Posted by: thecannula | November 2, 2008 9:05 PM | Report abuse

President George W. Bush Endorses Barack Obama For President
Says He Was Always In The Tank For The Illinois Senator.

http://askaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/11/president-george-w-bush-endorses-barack.html

Washington DC - In perhaps the most surprising move in what has been an unpredictable campaign season, president George W. Bush called a press conference early Monday to announce that he will be supporting the Democratic nominee Barack Obama for president. President Bush joins a long list of Republicans who have endorsed the Democrat, but his endorsement was probably the least expected. No American president in recent history, if at all, has ever crossed party lines to endorse the candidate of the opposing party to succeed them. As the news reverberated around the country there was initial shock followed by disbelief. Even the Obama campaign at first thought it was a joke before issuing a statement saying they did not appreciate the late Bush endorsement. “This is a last minute ploy by the president to help get his friend John McCain elected,” the campaign said. On the other hand, the McCain campaign was quick to say that “the Bush endorsement shows Senator Obama will continue the disastrous polices of George Bush.

Posted by: askaboutpolitics | November 2, 2008 6:16 PM | Report abuse

I think Obama will win by about 5% of the popular vote. The Dems will come in just shy of 60 members in the Senate.

Posted by: Heron | November 2, 2008 4:55 PM | Report abuse

DorchesterandCongress, did they block you from posting as 37thandOSt on here? Either way, have fun crying into your beer on Tuesday night, since the McCain campaign will no longer be paying you to post your repetitive, inane blather on The Fix. Go back to your Fox News, and stop posting the same dreck over and over, please!

Posted by: Heron | November 2, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Here's My Crystal Ball-

November 2, 2008


Day 21: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll


The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

Date McCain Obama Not Sure Spread Details
11/2 44.6% 46.7% 8.7% Obama +2.1 View
11/1 43.4% 47.9% 8.7% Obama +4.5 View
10/31 43.8% 48.2% 8.0% Obama +4.4 View

"Most Accurate Pollster Of The Campaign Season"

An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed TIPP was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season, coming within three-tenths of a percentage point of Bush’s actual margin of victory. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.

Posted by: thecannula | November 2, 2008 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Sunday, November 02, 2008
Gateway Pundit
EXPLOSIVE NEW AUDIO-- Obama Promises San Francisco Audience He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry!!

OBAMA TOLD A SAN FRANCISCO AUDIENCE THAT HE WILL BANKRUPT THE COAL INDUSTRY!!!

ATTN: Coal states Virginia , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Indiana, guess what Obama told San Francisco about you?

OBAMA TELLS SAN FRANCISCO HE WILL BANKRUPT THE COAL INDUSTRY:

from his talk to the San Francisco Chronicle in January 2008:


"Let me sort of describe my overall policy.

What I've said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else's out there.

I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted.

That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches.

The only thing I've said with respect to coal, I haven't been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can.

It's just that it will bankrupt them."


This goes hand-in-hand with what he's said about nuclear energy.
His preconditions make it impossible to expand nuclear energy at this time.
From The Wall Street Journal:


On nuclear power, Sen. Obama says he's open to expanding nuclear energy, which now provides 20% of the nation's electricity, as part of an effort to increase power sources that emit little or no carbon dioxide. But he also has said there is no future for expanded nuclear energy until the U.S. comes up with a safe, long-term solution for disposing of nuclear waste. He opposes the Bush administration's plan for storing waste at Yucca Mountain in Nevada.

Posted by: thecannula | November 2, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse

My prediction since the contest closed is:
Electoral: Obama 311; McCain 227
Pop.vote: Obama 52.15; McCain 45.85
Senate: Dems 57; Reps 54; Ind 2

Posted by: maureen_majury | November 2, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

I think the presidential election will probably be closer than most seem to expect because racism will likely play a greater role and McCain's recent smear, McCarthyite tactics will probably result in many wishy-washy, poorly educated, largely uninformed people voting for him. McCain, if he wins, will therefore have the votes of millions of mostly white racists and uneducated voters to thank.

McCain, Palin, most Republicans and these uneducated persons seem to have little, if any idea, of what socialism, Marxism, spreading the wealth or neo-Nazis actually mean. There is little likelihood so many voters in contemporary western European countries would be so easily duped by smear/fear tactics.

Nonetheless I think Barack will win with a little over 300 electoral votes. Were he not an African-American, all other factors the same, the Democratic candidate would win at least 350 electoral votes. The popular vote, I predict will be Barack 51%, McCain 47%, others 2%.

In the Senate the Democrats will fall short of a 60 vote filibuster proof majority, probably having 56 Senators to 42 Republicans.

Except for "expert" pundits who closely follow elections in the House of Representatives, predicting the results in this part of Congress is more guesswork than precise knowledge. So my guess, is the Democrats will have a net gain of about 25 seats.

Posted by: Aprogressiveindependent | November 2, 2008 2:52 PM | Report abuse
----------------------
Reply
You are probably right to a degree but people are always saying why isn't Obama farther ahead? That may be because people are not lying to the pollsters and the race effect is already reflected in the numbers. The numbers you see are what Obama is ahead with the race factor (if it exists), already figured in. There will be no real change.

Posted by: popasmoke | November 2, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

I think the presidential election will probably be closer than most seem to expect because racism will likely play a greater role and McCain's recent smear, McCarthyite tactics will probably result in many wishy-washy, poorly educated, largely uninformed people voting for him. McCain, if he wins, will therefore have the votes of millions of mostly white racists and uneducated voters to thank.

McCain, Palin, most Republicans and these uneducated persons seem to have little, if any idea, of what socialism, Marxism, spreading the wealth or neo-Nazis actually mean. There is little likelihood so many voters in contemporary western European countries would be so easily duped by smear/fear tactics.

Nonetheless I think Barack will win with a little over 300 electoral votes. Were he not an African-American, all other factors the same, the Democratic candidate would win at least 350 electoral votes. The popular vote, I predict will be Barack 51%, McCain 47%, others 2%.

In the Senate the Democrats will fall short of a 60 vote filibuster proof majority, probably having 56 Senators to 42 Republicans.

Except for "expert" pundits who closely follow elections in the House of Representatives, predicting the results in this part of Congress is more guesswork than precise knowledge. So my guess, is the Democrats will have a net gain of about 25 seats.

Posted by: Aprogressiveindependent | November 2, 2008 2:52 PM | Report abuse

Hey, Chris, you need to tell the "powers-that-be" that they have made a mistake on their outlook crystal ball contest. I only checked on Arianna Huffington and Juan Williams, but both of them said that, in the Senate, there would be 58 Dems, 40 Repubs, and 2 "others". As the others caucus with the Dems, isn't that the magical 60 seats? Yet, the powers-that-be said that everyone predicted the Republicans would thwart the Democrats' drive for 60 seats.

You need to get that fixed.

Posted by: rlalumiere | November 2, 2008 2:35 PM | Report abuse

wow, no one likes the Democrats to take 60 seats.

Posted by: DDAWD | November 2, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Sorry -- Optimyst typo:

266 D in the House

Posted by: optimyst | November 2, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

The Optimyst strikes! Daring to go where no prognosticator has gone before:

Obama 54% McCain 44% 405 electoral votes
Senate - 59 D (including Lieberman & Sanders)
House - 366 D

Posted by: optimyst | November 2, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

The Optimyst strikes! Daring to go where no prognosticator has gone before:

Obama 54% McCain 44% 405 electoral votes
Senate - 59 D (including Lieberman & Sanders)
House - 366 D

Posted by: optimyst | November 2, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Man, woman, white, black, republican, democrat....no matter...I will NEVER, EVER, vote for a candidate that openly says Americans who cling to their religion are pitiful. Without our beliefs, which are our own (for now), we have nothing. How do you feel when you realize your parent is going to survive a heart attack? Or when a close one survives cancer? Or when you get in an accident and everyone is fine? Or even when you wake up able to walk and breath every day? You have a belief that you cling to, to each his own, but you have something that guides you and helps you through each difficult time. To Michelle Obama I say, "If your husband is elected President of this United States, for the FIRST time in MY LIFE, I will be ASHAMED of America."

Posted by: Geeta_Girl | November 2, 2008 12:44 PM | Report abuse

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

THE LIBERAL MEDIA LIKE CNN, MSN, TIMES, etc. ARE GOING TO ENGAGE IN REP. VOTERS SUPPRESSION SCHEMES ESPECIALLY ON NOV 4.

* They are already doing it by implicitly telling Rep. voters that Sen. Obama has already won the election therefore Rep. voters are waisting their time showing up at the polls.

* I also expect these creatures to published fake polls showing Sen. Obama ahead by large margin, so Rep. voters will think they are waisting their time showing up at the polls.

BTW, most polls for battle ground states show Sen. McCain making constant progress and is within the margin of error. So, turnout will be a big factor in this election. SO, REP. VOTERS DON'T TRUST WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ON TV AND ON POLLS AND SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: lazerboy | November 2, 2008 11:24 AM | Report abuse
-----------
reply:

In Florida there is a natural voter suppression the republicans can't really do anything about. The long lines do not help the older voters who have not yet voted. I have already visited a few voting places this morning and the lines are around the block. The people waiting in the lines are not annoyed but excited. These are the same kind of people who wail in line for 24 hours to get concert tickets. The older voter who hasn't voted can't really compete with this.

Also, in Florida there are not really any unusual items being voted on such as tax issues that often effect older voter turnout. There is an item that has to do with gay marriage that will bring out a large gay vote mostly the same people who will be an Obama voter. Add to that the feeling that standing in the long line may be for nothing, Mccain is going to lose anyway and you have a perfect storm in Florida for Obama to win.

Add also to that Obama offices will be doing get out to vote efforts right through Tuesday. In Florida I am afraid almost everything that could go wrong for Mccain is going wrong for Mccain. It won't be a blow out in Florida but Obama by all indications will pul it out by some margin. Probably nothing that can even be disputed, a large enough margin to be decisive.

Posted by: popasmoke | November 2, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

THE LIBERAL MEDIA LIKE CNN, MSN, TIMES, etc. ARE GOING TO ENGAGE IN REP. VOTERS SUPPRESSION SCHEMES ESPECIALLY ON NOV 4.

* They are already doing it by implicitly telling Rep. voters that Sen. Obama has already won the election therefore Rep. voters are waisting their time showing up at the polls.

* I also expect these creatures to published fake polls showing Sen. Obama ahead by large margin, so Rep. voters will think they are waisting their time showing up at the polls.

BTW, most polls for battle ground states show Sen. McCain making constant progress and is within the margin of error. So, turnout will be a big factor in this election. SO, REP. VOTERS DON'T TRUST WHAT YOU ARE SEEING ON TV AND ON POLLS AND SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: lazerboy | November 2, 2008 11:24 AM | Report abuse

HENDERSON, Nev. — Barack Obama did not know a relative was living in the United States illegally for the past nearly four years prior to today's Associated Press report, "but obviously believes that any and all appropriate laws be followed," the campaign said Saturday in a statement.

The Democratic nominee last heard from Zeituni Onyango, who attended his swearing-in ceremony to the U.S. Senate in 2005 and is a half-sister of Obama's late father, two years ago, when she called to say she was in Boston, the campaign said. Campaign officials said they did not assist her in getting a tourist visa and had not known that she was living in America.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 10:08 AM | Report abuse

Even if the Dems end up at 59/41 in the Senate, (and Lieberman is a real wild card at this point), a President Obama can appoint a few Republican Senators to his cabinet, and their Senate replacements will be Dems. (Obviously he has to find Republican Senators in Democratic states, and the states all have their own rules for picking replacements in the Senate).

Posted by: gckarcher | November 2, 2008 9:55 AM | Report abuse

For the Obama fans out there who are worried about how Tuesday is shaping up, I have some reassuring data for you.

----------------------------

That Obama supporters are worried, that the polls show a tightening in state races, that McCain is getting even more negative is all to the good.

It will eliminate complacency among Dems, motivate Independents and light a fire under the youth vote.

Nothing could be better than a worried Obama base. It's the perfect way to get out the vote.

The more McCain's camp scream that they are winning, the more real votes for Obama on Nov 4. And the more more votes lost to McCain, whose base is voting negatively (hate Obama) than positively. Positive voters will stand in the rain, negative voters won't.

So, let the worrying continue!

As I stated months ago, Pennsylvania will decide the Presidency ...and mirror the long-ago victory in Gettysburg...Obama will then complete the work begun by honest Abe.

Posted by: wpost4112 | November 2, 2008 9:55 AM | Report abuse

You do realize that Obama wants to give free health care insurance to any illegal alien who steps across the border - THAT MEANS YOU CHRIS GET THE BILL FOR THAT.

.

.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 9:53 AM | Report abuse


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 9:47 AM | Report abuse

For the Obama fans out there who are worried about how Tuesday is shaping up, I have some reassuring data for you.

In 2004, RealClearPolitics averages in state polls were accurate in predicting the winner of every battleground state except WI, where Bush had an RCP lead of 0.9% and lost to Kerry by 0.4%.

When compared to the actual vote in 2004, the RCP averages were off by an average of 0.58% in favor of the candidate who won the state. The big deviations were:

FL: Bush led by 0.6% on RCP, won the state by 5.0%

NV: Bush led by 6.3% on RCP, won the state by 2.6%

Additionally, the RCP averages were accurate in 2004 to within 0.5% in seven battleground states: ME, IA, MI, MN, CO, NJ, and OH, where the RCP average was exactly right (Bush 2.1%).

Our opponents are hoping for something very unlikely: either the polls are wrong by a mathematically improbable amount, or that we're witnessing a Bradley Effect larger than any in the history of American politics.

Posted by: cam8 | November 2, 2008 9:39 AM | Report abuse

I don't understand how you calculate the 3rd tally of the 60-seat majority. You counted 14 of 14 that predicted dems would not reach 60. But 4 of 14 said GOP would only have 40 seats, with dems at 58 and 2 others. Isn't that defined as enough to turn back a filibuster? Or are we assuming that Lieberman will stop caucusing with democrats?

Posted by: dchoosier | November 2, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

foomonkey,

Most polling orgs. do in fact call cell phones. However, most under represent the number of Americans with no land lines, much the same way that the 18-29 age demographic is frequently under represented in most polling.

Posted by: cam8 | November 2, 2008 9:11 AM | Report abuse

i am still curious... there are so many close polls, but a few months ago, i heard that the pollsters do not call mobile numbers. i know that myself and many others ONLY have cell phones, no land line. many younger people are the same (i am 37).

could that be a big impact on the actual numbers in obama's favor??

Posted by: foomonkey | November 2, 2008 9:04 AM | Report abuse

CC, 57 senate seats? You didn't listen when I said McCain would be the nominee, and it took you forever to realize that some of us were right that Dole was in serious trouble in NC. Now you honestly think that the dems won't take NC.
The black vote is out in HUGE numbers in NC. Not only will Obama win NC, but he is going to bring Hagan along with him.

Posted by: AndyR3 | November 2, 2008 9:01 AM | Report abuse


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For a guy who is supposed to be so smart he sure doesn't know alot of things...


HENDERSON, Nev. — Barack Obama did not know a relative was living in the United States illegally for the past nearly four years prior to today's Associated Press report, "but obviously believes that any and all appropriate laws be followed," the campaign said Saturday in a statement.

The Democratic nominee last heard from Zeituni Onyango, who attended his swearing-in ceremony to the U.S. Senate in 2005 and is a half-sister of Obama's late father, two years ago, when she called to say she was in Boston, the campaign said. Campaign officials said they did not assist her in getting a tourist visa and had not known that she was living in America.


REMEMBER WHEN OBAMA CLAIMED HE WASN'T LISTENING TO REV. WRIGHT FOR ALL THOSE YEARS ???


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 8:44 AM | Report abuse

As a neighbor of the U.S. and an observer of things American, I have a small opinion.

America has sunk to some new lows in the past eight years, and this year was the icing on the cake.

Never before in the history of the United States has one man energized the voters of the Country into such a frenzy of excitement, as a frequent visitor to the U.S. I have seen young people passionate with enthusiasm jump into Obama's campaign with both feet and work their gut's out to involve every voter in the election.

Many in the media call Obama a Messiah, others call him the great black hope, we here in Canada call him the next President of the United States.

This African American brought up by a Grandmother who taught him common sense, the value of hard work, respect for others, and good christian values who worked through his college years helping those less fortunate attain their goals has instilled in him all the qualities a President needs.

There are very few who come down life's highway who could step into the Presidents shoes, and this man is the one, this time!

America can be so proud they have risen above prejudice and fear, seen the qualities this man has, and the need for a new direction in their Countries history.

America is going to be a very exciting place for the next eight years, that's right, eight years, and everyone around the world can't wait for him to step into the Oval Office.

What a great time in history to be an American.

Posted by: kentaylor1 | November 2, 2008 7:32 AM | Report abuse


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If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


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Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 6:54 AM | Report abuse

McCain is going to win this election - and this country is lucky to have his leadership guiding this nation.

If you are one of the millions who believe an inexperienced former-cocaine-user affirmative-action kid should make economic policies for this country, I feel sorry for you complete lack of judgement.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 6:51 AM | Report abuse

Chris:

The Obama Campaign is abusing the "report abuse" button - they are paying people to targeting certain individuals and repeatedly hit "report abuse" BASED ON THE CONTENT OF ONE'S VIEWS.


If you do see Obama win, the crystal ball says that Obama will show increasing disrespect for the Constitution and for Freedom of Speech.

Obama is hostile towards the Constitution - in Philadelphia of all places he said the Constitution has a stain on it - he is hostile because of the Dred Scott decision and the decisions which allowed the Jim Crow era to go on.


We need a national discussion about race.


Specifically we need to address the hostility which lingers in this country as a result of the Jim Crow era - and the media should engage in the discussion instead of hailing some horrible speech (which was renounced a few weeks later) as the grestest thing since Gettysburg.


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Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 6:45 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: scrivener50 | November 2, 2008 3:47 AM | Report abuse

McCain Endorsed by Pittsburgh Tribune-Review 11/2/08


(Do you think Obama will get angry again and throw their reporter off the plane too?)


"Welcome to the 2008 presidential race. This nation's liberal elite and its predominantly liberal media have anointed as the next president Democrat Barack Obama, 47, the junior senator of Illinois.

The liberal tutorial is that Sen. Obama is a visionary, a man of hope, if not the political equivalent of the Second Coming. And a plurality of the student body appears to accept this at face value. But Obama has sparse political experience, no executive experience, no leadership experience, really, and woefully little experience at much of anything.

That is, other than rationalizing quite leftist and collectivist views that include everything from the worst of command economics -- sure to turn recession into depression -- to perverting the U.S. Constitution by making it and the Supreme Court some kind of rule-of-law relative social re-engineering tool.

Talk about manifest danger.

The only truly experienced leader in this race -- the gentleman whose resume actually is worthy of the phrase -- is John McCain, 72, war hero, former congressman and longtime U.S. senator of Arizona.

John McCain is fiercely independent. And he makes no apologies for the principles he holds dear, even if they be at odds with the traditional party base. But he has never wavered in his core belief of what Republicanism (with a capital "R") and republicanism (with a lower-case "r") are all about:

Small government. Fiscal discipline. Low taxes. A strong defense. And a judiciary that does not legislate from the bench.

Compared with Barack Obama's long and dangerous statist laundry list of the ever more expansive role government should play in our lives, John McCain sums it up quite succinctly, quite effectively and quite nicely, thank you.

Indeed, we have differences that are more than quibbles with some of Sen. McCain's positions. We stridently disagree with his campaign finance and immigration "reform" efforts. And we've told him so face to face.

But it being, as once was written, a golden rule that one should never judge men by their opinions but rather by what their opinions make of them, it would be imprudent of us to allow our respectful differences to preclude our support.

Thus, we again today wholeheartedly endorse John McCain for president of the United States. For it really is time to stand up and fight."

Posted by: thecannula | November 2, 2008 1:56 AM | Report abuse

Funnier than John McCain on SNL-

The 5 Greatest Jokes of 2007-8:

1. I could no more disavow Rev Wright than I could an Uncle: I never in 20 years heard him say anything controversial

2. Allowing Mrs Rezko to buy me a sideyard was a Bonehead Move

3. Bill Ayres was a guy in my neighborhood:our kids knew each
other: I didn't know about his Weatherman background

4. Khalidi was a guy in my neighborhood: I didn't about know his PLO background

5. I didn't know my Aunt was in America

Posted by: thecannula | November 2, 2008 1:42 AM | Report abuse

"It looked like he was a man who has given up. What every happened to no surrender?"

I'm sorry but what would an Obama supporter like yourself know about a man who survived a POW camp for 5 and half years know when he's given up.

The answer is you don't have a clue.

My guess is the sole purpose of you're post is that you're probably a paid Obama supporter asked to hit blogs/comments and use words like "given up" and "surrender".

Obama's campaign was and is built on propaganda like this. If he loses on Nov. 4th, this will be one of the stories written about for posterity.

Though there is nothing shameful in losing to an American war hero in the final analysis.


Posted by: sheryl7962 | November 2, 2008 12:49 AM | Report abuse
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repla
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JOHN MCCAIN, TRAITOR TO HIS COUNTRY, COLLABORATOR WITH THE ENEMY, MILITARY DISGRACE.

Ted Sampley, a Vietnam Veteran and former Green Beret, issued a CHALLENGE to John McCain "If you can show us that the information presented in our mailer is untruthful . . . we will Stand Down" This CHALLENGE was issued during an interview with INSIDE EDITION on January 17, 2008.
John, family members of Vietnam POW/MIA(s) have been waiting for more then 14 years for you to have the courage to face them eye to eye in front of the American Public - Here is your opportunity for some "STRAIGHT TALK." Stop hiding behind your fabricated "War Hero" persona. You know we can prove your collaborations with declassified government documents . . . It is time for the American people to get to know the REAL John McCain - the John McCain that the POW/MIA families witnessed during the 1991-93 US Senate Select Committee on POW/MIA Affairs .
Bring It On John! HERE IS OUR NUMBER 252-527-0442
*********** ************* ************** *********** ***********
Activists accused McCain of stonewalling the release of POW records because they contained evidence he had collaborated with the North Vietnamese.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoseBNetlEk

Posted by: popasmoke | November 2, 2008 1:30 AM | Report abuse

"It looked like he was a man who has given up. What every happened to no surrender?"

I'm sorry but what would an Obama supporter like yourself know about a man who survived a POW camp for 5 and half years know when he's given up.

The answer is you don't have a clue.

My guess is the sole purpose of you're post is that you're probably a paid Obama supporter asked to hit blogs/comments and use words like "given up" and "surrender".

Obama's campaign was and is built on propaganda like this. If he loses on Nov. 4th, this will be one of the stories written about for posterity.

Though there is nothing shameful in losing to an American war hero in the final analysis.


Posted by: sheryl7962 | November 2, 2008 12:49 AM | Report abuse

"It looked like he was a man who has given up. What every happened to no surrender?"

I'm sorry but what would an Obama supporter like yourself know about a man who survived a POW camp for 5 and half years know when he's given up.

The answer is you don't have a clue.

My guess is the sole purpose of you're post is that you're probably a paid Obama supporter asked to hit blogs/comments and use words like "given up" and "surrender".

Obama's campaign was and is built on propaganda like this. If he loses on Nov. 4th, this will be one of the stories written about for posterity.

Though there is nothing shameful in losing to an American war hero in the final analysis.


Posted by: sheryl7962 | November 2, 2008 12:43 AM | Report abuse

Chris with all due respect, who cares about you and your journalists friends predictions about this race....journalism is dead.

I mean you people didn't even report that a man who has been running for POTUS for two years had a impoverished illegal alien aunt living in the United States who contributed illegal campaign funds to her nephew.

You're sheeple Chris.

Posted by: sheryl7962 | November 2, 2008 12:25 AM | Report abuse

McCain sure didn't do much to help himself on SNL tonight! Jeez, talk about making a complete joke out of everything the "Republicans" stand for.

Clearly, SNL is not the place for serious political discussion, but although the McCain skit was funny, the self-deprecating humor went a few steps too far. It looked like he was a man who has given up. What every happened to no surrender?

Posted by: jgarrisn | November 2, 2008 12:17 AM | Report abuse

Why does Ciliza keep referring to himself in the third person. 'We here at the fix', 'The fix has learned...'

There's no one else who posts on 'The Fix' It's just him.

Why doesn't he use 'I' or 'I am posting this on The Fix because I learned...'


It's a little weird.

el barto doesn't like weird!


Posted by: el_barto | November 2, 2008 12:08 AM | Report abuse

I don't care who is right at this point, I am only praying Obama/Biden go way over three hundred so on November 5th we will know he is president without recounting , or the Supreme Court interfering. VOTE EARLY /VOTE OMAMA/BIDEN
Connie from "BLUE" INDIANA

Posted by: grams1944 | November 2, 2008 12:07 AM | Report abuse

I think that all 14 of the presidential picks are pretty interesting and plausible, with the exception of Fred Barnes.

I don't know how Barnes has come to the conclusion that McCain has a path to 286. Not only would that require McCain to flip PA, but to hold NV, VA, OH, IN, MO, and NC.

In 2004, the RealClearPolitcs polling average correctly predicted the winner of every battleground state save one (WI). For Barnes' prediction to be correct, RCP would have to be wrong about VA, FL, NC, PA, NV, and OH.

Not only that, but look at the final margins in the battlegrounds of 2004 compared to the RCP averages. The average deviation between RCP and the actual totals from 2004 was 0.58%

For McCain just to get to 270, let alone 286, the RCP averages from the state polls in the 2008 campaign would have to not only be incorrect, but many would have to be wildly off the mark to the tune of 5,6,7 points.

Posted by: cam8 | November 1, 2008 11:33 PM | Report abuse

I think that all 14 of the presidential picks are pretty interesting and plausible, with the exception of Fred Barnes.

I don't know how Barnes has come to the conclusion that McCain has a path to 286. Not only would that require McCain to flip PA, but to hold NV, VA, OH, IN, MO, and NC.

In 2004, the RealClearPolitcs polling average correctly predicted the winner of every battleground state save one (WI). For Barnes' prediction to be correct, RCP would have to be wrong about VA, FL, NC, PA, NV, and OH.

Not only that, but look at the final margins in the battlegrounds of 2004 compared to the RCP averages. The average deviation between RCP and the actual totals from 2004 was 0.58%

For McCain just to get to 270, let alone 286, the RCP averages from the state polls in the 2008 campaign would have to not only be incorrect, but many would have to be wildly off the mark to the tune of 5,6,7 points.

Posted by: cam8 | November 1, 2008 11:32 PM | Report abuse

McCain knows all about bailing out rich bankers and screwing over middle class and poor people, he's been doing it for years.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAzDEbVFcg8
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McCain - Founding Member of the Keating 5:


McCain was one of the "Keating Five," congressmen investigated on ethics charges for strenuously helping convicted racketeer Charles Keating after he gave them large campaign contributions and vacation trips.


Charles Keating was convicted of racketeering and fraud in both state and federal court after his Lincoln Savings & Loan collapsed, costing the taxpayers $3.4 billion. His convictions were overturned on technicalities; for example, the federal conviction was overturned because jurors had heard about his state conviction, and his state charges because Judge Lance Ito (yes, that judge) screwed up jury instructions. Neither court cleared him, and he faces new trials in both courts.)


McCain intervened on behalf of Charles Keating after Keating gave McCain at least $112,00 in contributions. In the mid-1980s, McCain made at least 9 trips on Keating's airplanes, and 3 of those were to Keating's luxurious retreat in the Bahamas. McCain's wife and father-in-law also were the largest investors (at $350,000) in a Keating shopping center; the Phoenix New Times called it a "sweetheart deal."


McCain was not convicted of any crimes, though the Senate concluded that he exercised "poor judgment." (Furthermore, he got off on some charges by a technicality -- that he was still in the House when he took those vacation trips, and so the Senate couldn't prosecute him. The House concluded that THEY couldn't prosecute him because he had moved to the Senate.)


Here's some mavericky straight-talk, my friends:
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http://www.realchange.org/mccain.htm
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Posted by: DrainYou | November 1, 2008 11:20 PM | Report abuse

I'm a numbers guy and a baseball guy, so I'll go with Nate's optimistic numbers.

Good to see the e-media well-represented

Posted by: mnteng | November 1, 2008 11:20 PM | Report abuse

Chris, please show us your map and explain how you came up with the electoral breakdown of 312 to 226. I'm dying to know how you're calling some of the battleground states!

Posted by: harlemboy | November 1, 2008 11:01 PM | Report abuse

Palin is like Darth Cheney Jr.


Is Palin a Whack Job?


YOU BETCHA!


Whack Job: noun - A crazy, possibly dangerous, person.
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http://www.allwords.com/word-whackjob.html
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Politico brings word that McCain advisors are upping the verbal leak campaign against Sarah Palin, who must long for the days when members of her campaign were calling her a hockey mom and Joe Six-Pack.

A top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless "diva" description, calling Palin "a whack job."
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/palin-a-whack-job-top-mcc_n_138523.html
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Whack job. It's a good charge, cause it's true! This is one of my favorite leaks from the anti-Palin forces working for McCain, right up with the claim that she's "going rogue." Like Iran?


I've never seen a breakdown in discipline like this on a presidential campaign. It testifies to McCain's lack of leadership and to the state of his campaign. Knowing they're going to lose, Mittens' kittens are angling for advantage against Palin going into the 2012 primary.


Ah, yes, the coming GOP primary. Fantasize, my friends, with me. It's 2011, Obama and the Democrats in Congress have passed good progressive legislation to help bring us out of recession, institute universal health care, and end our dependence on foreign oil. Our troops are home from Iraq. Then we will all get to sit back and watch Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and whoever else fight for the right to lose to Obama.
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Posted by: DrainYou | November 1, 2008 11:00 PM | Report abuse

Chris Matthews is a god for political junkies, but I'm not so sure he qualifies for deity status in The Fix!

Posted by: theseventen | November 1, 2008 10:31 PM | Report abuse

MikeDow, Did you mean to say CO and
NM or NV or VA?

Sign in again and let us know...

Posted by: mark_in_austin | November 1, 2008 10:11 PM | Report abuse

I voted early in Florida and was one of only three people with gray hair in a line of hundreds. Obama has captured the enthusiasm of young voters, but I believe he will come up just short in Ohio and North Carolina. I would be very surprised in Obama won Missouri or Indiana, but he captures Colorado and Indiana.

My wildcard: Obama comes within four points in Arizona. The trends are moving in that direction.

Posted by: mikedow1 | November 1, 2008 9:54 PM | Report abuse

your numbers are accurate, I hope. I think Obama gets north of 300 electoral votes and at least low 50s percentage-wise. I am less sure that Franken will win, but I really would like to see that, so I'll make that call too. And I would dearly love to see Saxby Chambliss go down, but am not sure he will... and I do think Gregoire pulls it out. Less sure about Merkeley in Oregon. And if Ted Stevens gets in - again - that will tell me sth about Alaska and Alaskans that their choice of governor had already led me to suspect.

Posted by: bokonon13 | November 1, 2008 9:32 PM | Report abuse

your numbers are accurate, I hope. I think Obama gets north of 300 electoral votes and at least low 50s percentage-wise. I am less sure that Franken will win, but I really would like to see that, so I'll make that call too. And I would dearly love to see Saxby Chambliss go down, but am not sure he will... and I do think Gregoire pulls it out. Less sure about Merkeley in Oregon. And if Ted Stevens gets in - again - that will tell me sth about Alaska and Alaskans that their choice of governor had already led me to suspect.

Posted by: bokonon13 | November 1, 2008 9:30 PM | Report abuse

Hope you're right about Gregoire in WA state, I would hate to have a Repbublican governor. Ugh.

What's up with Fred Barnes? First he was the liberal on "Crossfire," then the conservative, then he completely went over the cliff and now he traipses after Bush whispering "thou art IMmortal, Cæser!" in his ear.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | November 1, 2008 9:22 PM | Report abuse

As an Obama supporter, I obviously like the trendline of what the pundits have predicted. Except for the 2 of 14 who predicted a McCain victory, everyone else has Obama with 300+ electoral votes. I think that is one of 2 questions still outstanding with this election -- (1) How far north of 50% will Barack achieve in the popular vote? and (2) How many electoral votes will he win north of 300? Simply amazing that Barack is poised for a seismic victory given his uniqueness. America has come a long way. Good for us! The rest of the world is watching and will take note of the historic election of this brilliant young man.

Posted by: gilk | November 1, 2008 9:22 PM | Report abuse

Elevated Chris Matthews to deity status, have we? ;)

Posted by: LeftCoasterInIowa | November 1, 2008 9:18 PM | Report abuse

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