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FixCam Week in Preview: Updated Electoral Map

Fifteen days remain in the presidential race and the electoral map appears to be hardening in Barack Obama's favor with the Illinois senator playing offense in a number of red states while John McCain has largely retreated within the borders of the 2004 map that gave President George W. Bush a second term.

Overall, we have Obama at 319 electoral votes and McCain at 219 -- the largest edge the Illinois senator has ever enjoyed in any Fix electoral map, a dominance built on a huge financial edge over McCain and a playing field that has tipped heavily in Democrats' favor over the past month.

There are three changes -- two major, one minor -- from last week's map:

1. Florida: Obama had the television airwaves in the Sunshine State to himself and yet his numbers never moved. About a month ago that all changed with Obama moving into a small -- but perceptible -- edge in Florida, a lead he has maintained for the last 28 days. Obama's momentum is aided by his massive spending edge in the state; from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13, Obama dropped $4.7 million on ads in the state -- roughly $3 million more than McCain and the RNC spent during that same period. It's working. MOVE FROM MCCAIN TO OBAMA

2. Ohio: As McCain's support in battleground states has eroded over the past two weeks, Ohio has held remarkably steady. A new Mason-Dixon poll done for NBC -- and revealed yesterday on "Meet the Press" by the incomparable Chuck Todd -- showed the race a dead heat with McCain at 46 percent and Obama at 45 percent. That McCain's numbers haven't cratered in Ohio as they have elsewhere suggests that if the Arizona senator can build even the small bit of momentum over the next 15 days he can win the Buckeye State. And, he needs to win it. Badly. MOVE FROM OBAMA TO MCCAIN

3. Nebraska's 2nd district: Nebraska gives out a single electoral vote for the winner of each of its three congressional districts and the Obama campaign has long had its eye on the 2nd district -- the most Democratic of the three seats in the state. A new poll conducted by John Anzalone for Democratic candidate Jim Esch statistically tied with Republican Rep. Lee Terry and, at the presidential level, Obama trailing McCain by just four points -- 48 percent to 44 percent. Given's Obama cash edge, he can make a real play for the 2nd district. Can McCain match it? MOVE FROM MCCAIN TO OBAMA

Agree or disagree with our most recent moves? The comment section awaits.

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 20, 2008; 6:45 AM ET
Categories:  Eye on 2008  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Palin Does Palin on "SNL"
Next: Is McCain Coming Back?

Comments

WillyHSmith drooled: "Presidents just as, or more, inexperienced in foreign affairs as Obama whom we have elected since WWII:
1. Kennedy, 2. Carter, 3. Reagan, 4. Clinton, 5. GW Bush. The Biden remark as a reason not to vote for Obama is idiotic. Now think of it this way. McCain dies in office and Carabou Barbie staffs an administration with Assembly of Godsters and old pals from Wasilla High . . . who gets challenged then?"

Willy before you call anyone else stupid, you may at least want to learn how to spell Caribou.

Posted by: grummantbf | October 27, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Chris' map (10/26/08) is almost a match for the one I submitted for the contest with the exception of one of the changes he made this week. We'll see how it goes. I can't wait for this election to be over.

Posted by: nonyite | October 26, 2008 4:27 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: diaco7529

_____________________

are you nuts?
Canada, UK, Sweden, France, and many more have some form of socialist governement
they are very happy

but obama will not rewrite the Constitution, etc....bush is the one who has tossed it (and our freedoms) out the window...

god plays no favorites

Posted by: Arthur5 | October 23, 2008 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: diaco7529

_____________________

are you nuts?
Canada, UK, Sweden, France, and many more have some form of socialist governement
they are very happy

but obama will not rewrite the Constitution, etc....bush is the one who has tossed it (and our freedoms) out the window...

god plays no favorites

Posted by: Arthur5 | October 23, 2008 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Presidents just as, or more, inexperienced in foreign affairs as Obama whom we have elected since WWII:
1. Kennedy, 2. Carter, 3. Reagan, 4. Clinton, 5. GW Bush. The Biden remark as a reason not to vote for Obama is idiotic. Now think of it this way. McCain dies in office and Carabou Barbie staffs an administration with Assembly of Godsters and old pals from Wasilla High . . . who gets challenged then?

Posted by: WillyHSmith | October 23, 2008 7:26 AM | Report abuse

Couple of choices I disagree with. I think Missouri and North Carolina are clearly in the Obama column at the moment. And I do not think NE-2 is. Obama is ahead in Missouri, moving farther ahead, and then those two huge rallies at the weekend. And NC, perhaps the closest state in the country right now, has a strong overall Democratic slate of candidates for statewide office and there should be some synergy there.
*******************************************

But NE-2 is still noticeably behind, and indeed on some demographic indicators should be more difficult territory for Democrats than the Lincoln-based first district.

Other than that I agree with the current map, including the Ohio switchback, sorry to say.

Posted by: dblissmn | October


I am from the NE 2 Omaha to be exact. I am active in my county and State party and I want to let all the naysayers know that they are wrong and the 2nd is going blue.

First of all we have three campaign offices open here in Omaha something unheard of. Second the DCCC has invested resources into Jim Esch's congressioanl race.

Thirdly we have phenominal volunteers and we are winning the early vote here. Also not sure what demographics you are referring to but the majority of blacks and latinos that live in the state reside in the 2ND.

We are focused we are fired up and ready to go and we will go blue on Nov. 4th!

Posted by: robinquarles | October 22, 2008 7:59 PM | Report abuse

According to McCain's running mate, since I don't live in a small town or rural area, I'm not a "real" American. Does that mean I won't have to give the government any of my tax dollars if McCain wins? And what about all those elitist NYers? All they did was take the hit on 9/11. Will they get to stop paying taxes too? Maybe that wouldn't be such a bad deal. Could someone please ask McCain about it?

Posted by: mctexas | October 21, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

It is a total disgrace that none of the main stream media papers or news sites are covering the fact that Joe Biden predicted (twice) that Obama will be challenged by foreign foes because of his inexperience (and that Joe will be there to come to the rescue)....gotta love that ego! Only one paper seems to be covering this outside of its blogs...

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10212008/news/politics/joe_doh_puts_o_in_crisis_mode_134547.htm

If the MSM were any further in the tank for Obama, you wouldn't be able to hear them at all.

Posted by: howarthj | October 21, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

"the Oct surprise was a video the sunday before the 2004 election changed the 2004 outcome which you seem to ignore."

Uh, no.

THE "October Surprise" was something PREVENTED by the real President Bush, 41.

In 1980, fearing the hostages held by Iran would be released in October, helping Jimmy Carter in the election, the Republican'ts dispatched GHW Bush to negotiate with the Iranians: You hold the hostages until after the election, and we'll sell you arms.

Which they did, and they then used the money to fund the Contras in Nicaragua, illegally.

You could look it up. It was even in the news back then. They called it the "Iran/Contra" scandal.

Posted by: RealCalGal | October 21, 2008 11:11 AM | Report abuse

My normally sane cousin in Ohio has fallen for the "Obama is the Antichrist" crapola that has spread all over Ohio like John McCain's skin cancer.

Is there anywhere else in the country that this rumor as been as widely disseminated?

Posted by: RealCalGal | October 21, 2008 11:04 AM | Report abuse

I think the vast of America is wise enough to not let McCain enter our White House to make his tax cuts for the wealthy permanent, while screwing the rest over and neglecting them on a variety of issues while he's at it, let alone his judgment in putting Palin alongside him.

I think the vast of America will execute some COMMON sense and step back to look at these two tickets when it comes to the next four years. My goodness, I have faith that we will put in the ticket with competence, intelligence, knowledge, and ideas for a different course of this country. We can restore our standing to the world. Obama is ready to multi-task, actually taking up the presidential role making cuts for our budget where money is wasted, and helping to serve our people at the same exact time. It is time.

America '08; not four more years of neglect and self service.

Come on America!! We can do it! We must get it right!

Posted by: Obama2008 | October 21, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

John McCain will win. I believe the majority of the american people are wise ennough not to vote in a man like obama who will set up a socialist goverment. socialism has never worked for many reasons. one being that those goverments have always denied God and persacuted freedom. God needs to be acknowledged and will judge nation that doesn't do that do. secondly socialism sucks life from people. I have read many reports from the old soviet union and communist/socialist nations that said people never had smile on their face and lacked moral, depression and acholism was rampant and that is because all motovation to work hard and better their lives was taken from them. they had to accept their sitution which was many times poverty with no hope of a better life. socialism and communism has failed in many places because in the end the God given hope and freedom we desire cannot be killed. do really want to try this proven failure of system in our nation? i pray not. vote for John McCain

Posted by: diaco7529 | October 21, 2008 6:46 AM | Report abuse

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan

Posted by: mvymvy | October 20, 2008 10:21 PM | Report abuse

The results in the 'swing' states, will depend not on the campaigns effectiveness, but rather on the GOPs voter suppression effectiveness.
The "Help America Vote" legislation should have been named "Help Suppress the Vote".

With more states opening early voting today, we are hearing of problems in New Mexico, Florida and West Virginia.
How does a 'touch screen' not only not register a vote for Obama, but change it to McCain in WV? Why does the 'computer glitch' in Florida prevent people casting ballots? How is it the supervisor of elections in Las Vegas, NM is suddenly removed from the voter rolls, along with 4 of 5 judges?

Get real people - the GOP will subvert this election nationwide, having learned how effective Voter Suppression worked in Florida in 2004.

I have never heard even ONE mention of someone actually voting fraudulently in an election. Perhaps we should hire international monitors to monitor OUR elections like is done in some other countries.

Posted by: mikeBY | October 20, 2008 8:38 PM | Report abuse

McCain needs a whole lot more than 2 states to go his way, and dont forget that even though Ohio went Republican the last 2 major elections, many of the other battles within the state have turned Democratic, and the Clinton elections we turned heavily toward the Democrat.
McCain needs all the Big electoral count states to pull this off, and the numbers just dont show it, just like it was for Hillary earlier in the year.
Ohio and Fla both had huge problems with voting and rejected votes in 04 and 2000, Ohio has made changes that will hopefully stop most of those problems, including early voting.Fla, still with balloting issues , has come a long way from 2000 and the lost votes that would have put Gore in the white house,but much is still needed for management of such a large consensus, which the state has'nt done much about.
In any case, McCain allready has a 100 electoral point disadvantage, and those 2 states dont make up the gap, not even bringing it close

Posted by: mullett | October 20, 2008 7:23 PM | Report abuse

Well I have no idea who reads this but I have to tell you that I am a 68 year old widow who is on a fixed income and I have donated twice to Obama's campaign in October. If he does not win there is no hope for us anymore and I will be leaving the USA. I am scared for us all. We have had halfassed leadership for a long time and now someone has to come in and try to fix the problems. The discipline that is required for all of us including our Obama President and Biden V.P. will be overwhelming but rewarding. About the time things will be going on track for our future it will have been 8 years and if the public vote in another Republican piece of crap here we go again. You and me too hate change above all things that is why Bush got elected second term. Big Mistake. Change is painful but we even teach our children to embrace change and we set a poor example. For us to get on track we will all have to stretch to the task of rebuilding America to be a safer, sounder, warfree, and busy and prosperous nation like we were when Clinton left office. We had a reserve at that time. If you want more of the same vote for McBush. Thanks

Posted by: jewelbts | October 20, 2008 6:52 PM | Report abuse

Now that the Supreme Court has made it less likely that the GOP can spuriously challenge Ohio voters and steal the election as may well have been done in 2004, I believe that a strong final week push in Ohio by Obama, Biden and Hillary Clinton could easily push the state into the Democratic column. With a Democratic Secretary of State overseeing the election process, adequate voting facilities should be available in the predominantly Democratic districts to eliminate the voter suppression activity of 2004 and if a significant percentage of newly registered voters actually cast ballots, I believe that Ohio will go for Obama by a sizable margin.

Posted by: rentrug14 | October 20, 2008 5:43 PM | Report abuse

The Democrats sc*ew*d Hillary, and deserve an Obamanation. It should purge the Republican Party, and destroy the Democratic. It's like calling in artillery fire on your own position. But, the enemy, as always, the imaginary "right wing conspiracy", doesn't exist. Go Obama! The Black Jimmy Carter.

Puhleeeeeeeze. Vote Obama. First Presidential Act: Gay Marriage in Military Chapels, repeal of "Don't Ask Don't Tell" and more bizarro leftist loons than Bill O'Reilly could ever dream of. A dream come true. Puhleezzzeee put all your blind faith in an unproven, leftist, urbanite, racist, crackhead who associates with the loons of Hyde Park.

Thank you for voting for Obama.

Posted by: Lalalu | October 20, 2008 4:26 PM | Report abuse

"http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct20.html

don't take my word for it. Look for yourself:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 291 Bush 247"

If that's what you're hanging your hopes on, then you're in big trouble. That site had just 103 strong Kerry EC votes as part of that 291. They have 264 strong Obama EC votes this time around out of 364 total Obama EC votes.

That spells big trouble for McCain

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | October 20, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

In the long run, Obama could come up empty in all the toss-up states right now and still be the next President. As long as he wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, NM and Colorado things should be OK. As of right now, I think he will also carry Virginia and either NC or Missouri as well as Nevada to make it a semi-landslide.

Posted by: Opa2 | October 20, 2008 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 11:13 AM


You are 100 percent right, thank you

Posted by: mackiejw | October 20, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

McCain will be voting for Obama. He has made it obvious to everyone except the die hards in denial that he is uninterested in taking over a White House that is on fire. There are no heroes in this administration. There will be mostly criticism; the President will have no days off at Camp David; it will be a sweat shop at the oval office.

Posted by: therookie | October 20, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Obama by 10 points in Virginia according to Rasmussen, the rest of the battleground states will be icing on his cake.

By the way, Ohio is filled with Joe the Plumbers...Obama has a better chance in NC than he does in Ohio.

Posted by: sollazo | October 20, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

ddawd writes
""At the same time, the average donation to the RNC (which is running McCain's campaign) is over $10,000!!!"

Source, please. I find this hard to believe."

I don't have the source data you request. BUT, keep in mind the rules are different for donating to candidates vs. donating to the state and national parties. My understanding is that the McCain-Palin fundraising events are for the National & state parties. Earlier this summer, they held an event here in MN where donors could write one check, up to $70K, as far as I recall, that is then split among multiple organizations based on legal limits. RNC gets a piece, as do the MN party, and other state parties. Its a fairly effective way to sidestep the limits setup by McCain-Feingold.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 20, 2008 1:16 PM | Report abuse

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct20.html

don't take my word for it. Look for yourself:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 291 Bush 247

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

So, why aren't so many of us surprised or impressed?

Seems to me that more than one Fixista armchair prognosticator, based on their own personal observatons and instincts, has projected the scenario that Chris is now promulgating on this blog.

The evidence of Obama's big wave was overwhelming, long ago. I saw it in Iowa, at the Jefferson Jackson days event. nd I can only say, you can't watch a tsunami inundate the island and not recognize that a BIG wave just rolled by.

But, like I have said so often, if the MSM had allowed the truth about Obama's sweeping popularity to leak out, McCain would not have been able to rake in all that RNC money from Republicans who are only now realizing they have been gamed by the system, to the tume of millions of ad bucks, all of which went to the same media.

Which brings us to one of the biggest questions of our age of blogger journalism; now that the Fix constantly changes his speculation to match the inevitable outcome that so many of us recognized long ago, one must wonder if he knew better all along, and just went along for the AD-MONEY MSM RIDE, or if he really believed the tripe he was posing...

Posted by: JEP7 | October 20, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

"Zogby is not cherry picking, it was about the most accurate in the last election."

One criticism of Zogby is that he's weighting this year based on the 2004 election. So Zogby says there are about as many Repubs as Dems nationwide and weights his sample accordingly. If you think there are as many Rs as Ds, you'll think Zogby is providing good data. If you think the party ID makeup has changed since 2004, you'll think Zogby's data is wrong.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 20, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

As of today I think your map looks about right except I'd put Ohio and North Dakota in Senator Obama's column. Unless Warren Buffett is planning an awesome endorsement speech in Omaha, Nebraska-2 will go to Senator McCain. Of course it's possible this race will move slightly back toward McCain or, more likely, significantly toward Obama (NC, WV, IN, MO, NE-2 & MT).

Posted by: dwnmd | October 20, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

"At the same time, the average donation to the RNC (which is running McCain's campaign) is over $10,000!!!"

Source, please. I find this hard to believe.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 20, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse

"Most of the values are skewed heavily toward Dems, probably inaccurately so. then there is rounding off which can result in numbers that do not add to exactly 100%."

That has to be the most absurd statement about any poll I have ever read. The reason your numbers don't add up has nothing to do with weighting Dems or poll methodologies - it's because you are lazy when you quote the numbers. The exact numbers are Obama 46.6, McCain 41.5, Undecided 11.9. Those add up to 100, genius.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 20, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

"President Kerry 291 EV, Bush 247
for all of dribbls warning about violence, who do you think will riot if their candidate is not elected?"

I love how all the conservatives say that everyone was predicting Kerry to win. Bush had been leading in the polls for quite some time now.

Its as if those people think that saying it makes it true.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 20, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

don't other to offer facts to kingofkooks. Hi mind can't accept their existence -- they interfere with his mental illness.

here's a good report on the death of intelligent conservatism and the rabid fascist pit bulls --like kook- that are all that is left of the right:

'If the Buckley affair were an isolated incident, such talk would be easy to dismiss as self-flattery—but it isn’t. With the prospect of defeat for John McCain growing more likely every day, the GOP destined to see its numbers reduced in both the House and Senate, and the Republican brand debased to the point of bankruptcy, the conservative intelligentsia is factionalized and feuding, criminating and recriminating, in a way that few of its members can recall in their political lifetimes. Populists attack Establishmentarians.

Neocons assail theocons. And virtually everyone has something harsh to say about the party’s standard-bearer. Election Day may still be two weeks away, but already the idea-merchants of the right have formed a circular firing squad.

When the weapons of choice shift from pistols to Uzis after November 4, the ensuing massacre will be for Democrats a source of political opportunity, not to mention endless entertainment. But for Republicans it will be a necessary passage toward either the revival or reinvention of conservatism. Nobody serious on the right doubts that the overhaul is at once required and bound to be arduous—but it may take longer and prove even bloodier than anyone now imagines.

To get a sense of the struggle ahead, a good place to start is with Sarah Palin, who has been the flashpoint for the most severe intra-conservative contretemps so far. In the weeks since her selection as McCain’s running mate, a startling assortment of name-brand pundits on the right—Kathleen Parker, George Will, David Frum, David Brooks—have pronounced themselves displeased with the pick. Brooks went so far as to declaim that

Palin “represents a fatal cancer to the Republican Party.” Buckley, for his part, tells me that McCain’s vice-presidential choice was roughly 60 percent of the reason that he decided to endorse Obama. “I will readily confess that I was one of many who swooned the day after the announcement,” he says. “But it’s kind of like dating a supermodel. There comes a moment, unfortunately, where they start talking.”

http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/51406/

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

the Oct surprise was a video the sunday before the 2004 election changed the 2004 outcome which you seem to ignore.
Since you are so certain that contrary to most elections where the undecideds traditionally break to the out of power candidate, that it will be different in an election year where 90% of the country says that the country is going in the wrong direction,and will suddenly vote GOP for more of the same, I would suggest that you take what the GOP has left you in your stock potfolio and take it it all down to Vegas.
McCain has already admitted on Fox News that he will lose, so get over it and start your pontificating for 2012 zouk.

Posted by: leichtman | October 20, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

BJ - i guess you don't understand polling very well. the results are weighted according to party affiliation, which is a guess. Most of the values are skewed heavily toward Dems, probably inaccurately so. then there is rounding off which can result in numbers that do not add to exactly 100%.

But why would polling more than 100% of voters trouble you, it doesn't bother you when there are more than 100% of living voters registered to vote for the messiah.

and buying an election( with foreign money) doesn't seem to bother you either, and muzzling the press, and lying about the past, and slander.

just what is the Lib morality these days - the ends justify the means, no matter what?

Yeah, we get it, attack the plumber, ignore the question.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Nevada Early Voting May Give Edge to Obama

Nevada political guru Jon Ralston notes that "more and more" the state "is looking as if it leans toward Barack Obama, no matter what the overmatched McCain folks do here. There are 100,000-plus more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nevada now. That should be an insurmountable barrier. If it's not, and McCain wins Nevada, the Democrats will have to go into hiding."

Ralston was also quoted by First Read: "Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won't be a wave; it'll be a tsunami."

October 20, 2008

Posted by: popasmoke | October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Report abuse

McCain's slated to win Ohio because he's leading 46-45 in one poll? Chris, don't you wish you could quit Karl Rove?

Posted by: light_bearer | October 20, 2008 12:41 PM | Report abuse

more "cherry picking" aka - facts that Dems prefer to avoid - aka the Lib approach.

from Pollster

Rasmussen 46/50
GWU - 45/49 with 6 undecided
IBD - 42/47 with 12 undecided
Diageo - 42/47 with 8 undecided

do you think the undecideds are waiting to see if Obama's nose begins to elongate? they will pretty much all break to Mccain. why do you think the Obamabots want you to vote early, before the truth sinks in and you change your mind. and that is even before any bradly effect, saturation/celebrity weariness and liberal polling bias sets in.

this day in 2004 prediction:

President Kerry 291 EV, Bush 247
for all of dribbls warning about violence, who do you think will riot if their candidate is not elected?

answer - the crybaby party

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse
-----------------

I don't think you now anything about anything. Mccain is the known quantity. If someone is still undecided it is because they are looking at Obama or they would have made their move to Mccain already. Self delusion makes life so nice till reality hits you over the head. Those undecideds at best will probably split changing nothing. Most all uncommitted votes still out there will most likely cancel each other out.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 20, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

"Libs say - Kill the messenger, the messiah is above reproach. not that I blame you, if the media ever actually reported the truth about Obama, his days would be numbered."

What makes you think they haven't?

Posted by: DDAWD | October 20, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

FULL DISCLOSURE. WHO IS SIGNATOR: OBAMA'S FRIEND, CONFIDANT, LOVER? The media has persecuted everyone associated with this campaign, even those not connected with the campaign, like Joe the Plumber. SO WHY THE SILENCE FROM OBAMA? IS THIS MAN HIS DRUGDEALER? HIS GAY LOVER? (Both of those conjectures have been fully revealed by bloggers seeking the truth.) Of course, you won't see these questions posed by the media to OBAMA, because he's "The One" and not to be investigated, questioned or even spoken to directly. Obama is too important, and too FAR ABOVE THE PUBLIC - FAR SUPERIOR TO HIS FELLOW PUBLIC SERVANTS to be so humanely examined. Butl on the other hand, it's just fine for Obama, the media, the sick sycophant bloggers to try to harm a woman of courage and conviction - a family woman, a loving mother, a HUGELY popular governor (imagine an elected official who has maintained their integrity while garnering 80 PERCENT of their public's approval). Silly me......... INTEGRITY IS A WORD NEVER ASSOCIATED WITH OBAMA

Posted by: DemocratForPeace | October 20, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

I just love the comments about "big money" and the current spin from the wright wng nuts asking about where last months $150 million dollars for Obama came from. Hey, outside auditors confirm that 98% of it came from individuals like me, giving $200 or less. In fact, the average donation was under $100! At the same time, the average donation to the RNC (which is running McCain's campaign) is over $10,000!!! The corporate money has always been on the side of Republican's. Ordinary voters have never been this organized before, but the internet has changed everything. Obama's model is the future and the big money donors, the crooks and corporate swine that fund NeoCon's, are being rendered ineffectual. Change, getting back to a truly representative democracy, is good! Now, all we need is to bring back the Fairness Docrine to get Limbaugh, Fox and the other mouth pieces of corporate money and the wealthy to either be honest or be made extinct.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | October 20, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

zouk says "(undecideds) will pretty much all break to Mccain."

Right. And you have what to back this up?

Also, check your numbers for the much-vaunted IBD poll. It polled 101% of voters?

Posted by: bondjedi | October 20, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

What on earth are you all talking about? We already have proof that W.VA voting machines are flipping to McCain when people vote for Obama. http://wvgazette.com/News/200810180251. (Just because WaPo does not report it does not mean it is not happening.) What makes you think it will be any different in the other states that have the same history?

This election is lost, despite the poll numbers favoring Obama. McCain wins. The GOP's electronic voting machines decided the election for us, and there is nothing we can do if the national press has a news blackout on these facts - and no lawyers will file suit.

Posted by: prantha | October 20, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

more "cherry picking" aka - facts that Dems prefer to avoid - aka the Lib approach.

from Pollster

Rasmussen 46/50
GWU - 45/49 with 6 undecided
IBD - 42/47 with 12 undecided
Diageo - 42/47 with 8 undecided

do you think the undecideds are waiting to see if Obama's nose begins to elongate? they will pretty much all break to Mccain. why do you think the Obamabots want you to vote early, before the truth sinks in and you change your mind. and that is even before any bradly effect, saturation/celebrity weariness and liberal polling bias sets in.

this day in 2004 prediction:

President Kerry 291 EV, Bush 247
for all of dribbls warning about violence, who do you think will riot if their candidate is not elected?

answer - the crybaby party

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

"Zogby is not cherry picking, it was about the most accurate in the last election" claims zouk.

The night before the California primary, Zogby had Obama beating HC by 10 points.
Please don't lecture us on the accuracy of Zogby's polling methods.

Posted by: leichtman | October 20, 2008 12:27 PM | Report abuse

Zogby is not cherry picking, it was about the most accurate in the last election. I understand you prefer to annoint THE ONE without the formality of an actual vote, but most of us are willing to go through the turmoil first.

with zero press coverage of his shortcomings, and every appearance scripted as tight as a bugs butt, it is not surprising that a single slip of the tongue, a fruedian slip, could reveal so much about the mystery man.

could it be that we are not ready to be treated like imbeciles and have our money taken from us and awarded to ACORN, Ayers, Rizco, Wright and the other pack of jackels that represent the Obama contingency?

the Obama mantra is not selling, now that Joe has revealed it through the obfuscation:

Work hard, pay hard; hardly work, get a check. vote D.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 12:12 PM | Report abuse
-----------------
Are you nuts. Zogby are professional pollers that get poll results that the one paying them wants. They do on line polling so they just place the polls where they can predict in advance what the results will be. If they put the poll on a website of say a newspaper in a area where it is all conservative they will get that result. Want a poll that says smoking is not bad for you they can place polls on websites of cigar companies and so on. They will get what ever result the ones paying them want.
Totally unreliable.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 20, 2008 12:26 PM | Report abuse

"Zogby is not cherry picking, it was about the most accurate in the last election. I understand you prefer to annoint THE ONE without the formality of an actual vote, but most of us are willing to go through the turmoil first."

Zogby isn't cherry-picking, you are. And you did it with a poll that has been superceded. Obama is +6 on Zogby, not +3.

So long as you are attesting to Zogby's accuracy, you should be accurate in quoting the current figure.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 20, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

I am sorry but the votes just are not there for Mccain. Obama does not need to convert anymore voters. Now our strategy is the get out to vote part. You are now going to see Obamas end game as Mccain is still stumping for votes. It will be over soon and Mccain can go home and retire. In Florida early voting started today and already has long lines. The voters are showing up and Obama will be elected. There is nothing Mccain can do anymore. All the stupid stuff Mccain says may make his base happy but it doesn't get him one more vote. He has all the votes now he is ever going to get. That is just the way it is. Early voting is already running 28% in favor of Obama. I guess they are doing some kind of exit polls of something.


--------------
Sunday Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1% John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run Zogby

It seems it may be possible to bypass the propagandists after all.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: popasmoke | October 20, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

bonjedi, even McCain knows its over and has said as much so why bother arguing whether it will be by 3 points or 6 points,either is considered a landslide in Presidential elections. The only question left is whether Obama will reach a mandate with 350 or more electoral votes and whether Ds can pick up 9 Senate seats.
As Ann Richards use to say, you can stick a fork in John McCain because he is done.

Posted by: leichtman | October 20, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

what did you use to slash the tires, eh kind of kook? box cutter?

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 12:17 PM | Report abuse

Rethuglicans starting to get real angry and vicious... wonder how long before they start really hurting people? How long before the violence palin has encouraged really breaks out?

"Someone slashed the tires of at least 30 vehicles parked outside the Crown Coliseum on Sunday during a rally for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, authorities said.

Sheriff’s deputies are investigating. The tires were cut while people were inside the Crown Coliseum listening to speeches, said Maj. E. Wright of the Cumberland County Sheriff’s Office.

Susan Lagana, the North Carolina communications director for Obama, said it was extremely disappointing and unfortunate that “people would have to experience something like that.”

Mario Diaz, communications director for McCain, did not respond to a call late Sunday.

Sarah Revis, who lives on Wilkes Road, said the slashed tires left several women, including a single mother and a toddler, stranded and upset. At least four tow trucks were sent to move the vehicles from the Crown, Revis said.

“This is an embarrassment to this city and to me as a citizen,” Revis said. “I’ve seen women out here crying and men cussing. This is a crying shame.”


Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Zogby is not cherry picking, it was about the most accurate in the last election. I understand you prefer to annoint THE ONE without the formality of an actual vote, but most of us are willing to go through the turmoil first.

with zero press coverage of his shortcomings, and every appearance scripted as tight as a bugs butt, it is not surprising that a single slip of the tongue, a fruedian slip, could reveal so much about the mystery man.

could it be that we are not ready to be treated like imbeciles and have our money taken from us and awarded to ACORN, Ayers, Rizco, Wright and the other pack of jackels that represent the Obama contingency?

the Obama mantra is not selling, now that Joe has revealed it through the obfuscation:

Work hard, pay hard; hardly work, get a check. vote D.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 12:12 PM | Report abuse

NE-2 stays red. Ohio goes blue along with North Carolina.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 20, 2008 12:12 PM | Report abuse

silly zouk, employment is so sane people.

which is why you don't have a job and are on this board every single day, posting utter nonsense and jibberish every 5 minutes. how tragic and empty your life is.

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

zouk - Cherry-picking polls to prove your point is dubious enough. But even Karl Rove would be hard-pressed to cherry-pick polls that are out of date.

Go back to September 2, and you will probably find some polls that show McCain in the lead!

Posted by: bondjedi | October 20, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

Couple of choices I disagree with. I think Missouri and North Carolina are clearly in the Obama column at the moment. And I do not think NE-2 is. Obama is ahead in Missouri, moving farther ahead, and then those two huge rallies at the weekend. And NC, perhaps the closest state in the country right now, has a strong overall Democratic slate of candidates for statewide office and there should be some synergy there.

But NE-2 is still noticeably behind, and indeed on some demographic indicators should be more difficult territory for Democrats than the Lincoln-based first district.

Other than that I agree with the current map, including the Ohio switchback, sorry to say.

Posted by: dblissmn | October 20, 2008 11:58 AM | Report abuse

Why do you still have Missouri as red?

Posted by: ccatmoon | October 20, 2008 11:57 AM | Report abuse

dribbl is clearly of the delusional school that thinks that Libs are strong on defense, like to cut taxes, and are frugal with your money. they hate big government and prefer to let individuals run their own lives.

silly dribbl, logic is for sane people.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:56 AM | Report abuse

Forget Ohio, Florida, NC, Missouri...If Obama wins Virginia, it's over. And even if he loses Virginia, he still wins with Colorado.

Posted by: sollazo | October 20, 2008 11:51 AM | Report abuse

That Zogby poll is great news for McCain, zouk.

Except...wait...DOH!

Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby Tracking (10/17-10/19):
Obama 50, McCain 44

Posted by: cam8 | October 20, 2008 11:49 AM | Report abuse

– Disabled Veterans Of America (DAV): In a list of 36 “key votes,” shows McCain “Voted Against Us” 16 times. (Obama “Voted With Us” 17 times, and against only once.)

– Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW): Endorsed Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-VA) GI Bill that McCain vigorously opposed; called McCain’s alternative GI Bill “very partisan” and said they “didn’t have much input” in its crafting.

– American Legion: Endorsed Webb’s GI Bill and criticized McCain’s concern about how it would affect retention, saying the bill “would encourage young men and women to join the military.”

Just last week, the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave McCain a grade of D for his record of voting against veterans. (Obama got a B.) The Vietnam Veterans of America (VVA) have noted that in its “Key Votes,” McCain “Voted Against Us” 15 times and “Voted For Us” only 8. (Obama voted for VVA 12 times, and against only once.)

Earlier this month, Rep. Chet Edwards (D-TX), a leading veterans advocate, excoriated McCain in an interview with ThinkProgress: “If you look at John McCain’s record on veterans issues, it’s a failed one.” It’s a sentiment IAVA executive director Paul Rieckhoff agrees with. Noting McCain’s dismal voting record on VA funding, Rieckhoff told ThinkProgress, “If he says the VA’s not working, it’s because he hasn’t funded it properly.”

UPDATEIn an interview with Richmond's WTVR on Friday, McCain repeated his favorite lie: "I've been a friend of the veterans for a long time and I've received every award from every major veterans organization." He added, "I'm proud of my support for the veterans."

too bad that's all a lie...

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 11:48 AM | Report abuse

KZ - I will acknowledge your Sunday Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby that shows Obama's lead narrowing to under 3 points nationwide, if you acknowledge the MONDAY R/C/Z poll that shows the lead back up to 6.

Shazam!

Posted by: bondjedi | October 20, 2008 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Obama Broke Illinois Ethics Laws As A State Legislator On Obama’s released tax records, he discloses income from speaking fees. The problem? Accepting payment for speaking fees when you’re a legislator is against Illinois state law KXMC

the three headed cuture of corruption coming soon.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:41 AM | Report abuse

Sunday Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1% John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run Zogby

It seems it may be possible to bypass the propagandists after all.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Entering the Pick A President electoral map contest has sure changed my feelings about this election. Now I have to hope that Indiana, West Virginia, and North Carolina stay RED.
http://obama-bidenforthewin.blogspot.com

Posted by: annieb346 | October 20, 2008 11:36 AM | Report abuse

BJ - I see you have been gulping the kool-aid again.

Libs say - Kill the messenger, the messiah is above reproach. not that I blame you, if the media ever actually reported the truth about Obama, his days would be numbered.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:35 AM | Report abuse

I'M SO EXCITED!!! GO OBAMA!!!


I'm early voting and volunteering today, watching "W" with friends tonight, and attending the rally in Miami tomorrow.


The GOP and John McCain are running the dirtiest campaign in history, but with $150 million, Obama will be able to fight the smears and take Florida! This is a great American success story! A US President funded by real Americans - no crooked PACS/lobbyists - FINALLY!!!


President Obama is funded by and will answer to people like me... millions of voters sending small amounts of cash ($100 or less) each month and volunteering to help bring change... This is REAL public financing!


BUT WE NEED EVERY VOTE WE CAN GET!!! VOTE TODAY!!! VOLUNTEER!!! CANVASS!!! MAKE CALLS!!! DRIVE YOUR FRIENDS TO THE POLLS!!! WE WILL ONLY WIN IF WE SHOW UP AND VOTE!!!


OBAMA/BIDEN '08

Posted by: shoemiaw | October 20, 2008 11:33 AM | Report abuse

""Let's elevate those who have never achieved anything in there lives to celebrity status.""

dribbl accidentally gives away the Dem strategy

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:31 AM | Report abuse

' market capitalism'

LOL -- yeah, it's great, ain't it folks? Looked at your 401K statement lately? Looks like you won't be retiring after all...

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 11:23 AM | Report abuse

Missouri is leaning Obama now, with a string of polls that show him ahead. A lot more polls show Obama ahead in Missouri then show McCain ahead in Ohio. Its not a very good switch, Mason-Dixon has a Republican lean to it anyway, so its a tie, not a McCain state.

Posted by: sjxylib | October 20, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Economics -- Lesson #1 for the ignorant:

Socialism:

"a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole."

No democrat proposes this.

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Apparently the McCain campaign has also decided to write off Virginia as well as Michigan, with boneheaded toxic statements by their campaign, almost on par with Allen's meltdown:

"(And that was before a McCain adviser went on TV and said northern Virginia -- where, by the way, McCain headquarters is located -- is not "real Virginia.")

and ths statement by Powell undermines McCain's assertions that he would not follow W's policies:

"He also made clear his belief -- despite McCain's 'I'm not President Bush' disclaimer at last week's debate -- that a McCain presidency would be an unwelcome policy rerun of the discredited Bush-Cheney years," Thomas M. DeFrank writes in the New York Daily News.

Posted by: leichtman | October 20, 2008 11:18 AM | Report abuse

When a candidate brings you up 23 times in one speech, my guess is the press wants to find out why, to understand why John MCcain thinks Joe the Plumber is just so important.

And of course, it turns out he's a fraud. What a surprise. Let's elevate those who have never achieved anything in there lives to celebrity status. In fact, let's elect a lazy slacker as president -- because this one has worked out so well.

And Joe the Plumber -- he wants the rightwingers to leave him alone now. But they have a new God -- they can't let go.

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 11:17 AM | Report abuse

"ask a simple question and the media truth squad comes after you?

Joe the plumber finally got to ask Obama a single question that revealed his true intention. for that he will be pilloried."

Joe is an unlicensed tax cheat. That's what he's being "pilloried" for.

Except in the wing-nut media, where Joe's not having a license solidify his "maverick" credentials and his unwillingness to pay his share of taxes testifies to his enterpreneurial spirit. Joe saying he is going to buy a plumbing business when he lacks the means to is not a delusion, it is the "American Dream." And never mind that the business isn't for sale - that never stopped corporate legends like Carl Icahn and T. Boone Pickens from sticking up for capitalism.

It looks like the McCain camp spends as much time vetting its symbols as it does its VP candidates.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 20, 2008 11:15 AM | Report abuse

With a widening gap in the polls staring him in the face McCain rolled out a series of more ambitious tax cuts. And then the McCain team found Joe the Plumber. He showed that it really didn’t take a genius — just common sense — to sniff out what Barack Obama was up to. Obama, even in a recession, prefers wealth redistribution to wealth creation. Obama let it slip out with not much concern he was giving away the best kept secret in the campaign. And Joe got creamed by the MSM, the Lefty bloggers and irate Democrats.

But what Joe did was give McCain his contrast: socialism vs. market capitalism, high vs. low taxes, Hoover vs. Reagan. How could all those “smart” McCain political advisors have missed this? Well, let’s just say in the midst of a campaign, it’s easy to get lost in the trees. They missed the entire forest: the election is about whether we’re going to veer Left, really Left on taxes, trade, spending, health care and the like. (Really Left because Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have their hands on the wheel and there’s no brake.)

So after all of this (two years of campaigning) McCain is finally focused on the economy with a rather compelling message. We will have plenty of time to argue if he loses whether a quicker realization and better articulation of this mega-contrast between the candidates’ economic views would have helped. But two weeks these days is an eternity in politics — and that’s especially true if your opponent doesn’t really dispute the premise of your contrast argument.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:15 AM | Report abuse

You remember January. That's when Obama trounced Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, and more or less every commentator on the planet pronounced the Democratic primary a done deal. After Iowa, polls showed Obama in the lead in New Hampshire. And when Obama won New Hampshire, we were told, the primary would be over. Except the primary wasn't over. It wasn't over at all. Clinton won New Hampshire, and the primary lasted until early June. Clinton won every big state except Obama's home state of Illinois. She positively trounced Obama in states like Pennsylvania and Kentucky and West Virginia. She won Ohio by nine percentage points.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:13 AM | Report abuse

"employment exists only if business are given tax cuts"

"Obama thinks now he is experienced enough and pulls of the Nuclear trigger"

It is really disturbing to read the so-called 'conservatives' on this board. Not a single individual who is literate, who is articulate, who can spell or write or think, or seems to understand anything whatsoever about the way the world works. Barely functional parrots. Where did all the intelligent republicans go? Have they already jumped ship, leaving behind only those who are not bright enough to understand it's sinking?

Posted by: drindl | October 20, 2008 11:13 AM | Report abuse

Evidently the O-Mighty One was not happy after his encounter with Joe. He’s still willing to talk to Ahmadinejad without preconditions. But never again will he talk to Joe the Plumber without preconditions. Outraged at the way the right-wing whackos were talking up Joe the Plumber as if he were an authentic regular Joe like Joe Biden, the O-Bots of the media swung into action. Vast regiments of investigate reporters were redeployed from the Wasilla Holiday Inn back to the Lower 48.

“We need you down here checking out this Joe the Plumber,” editors barked to journalists.

“But I’m this close to wrapping up the Wasilla Town Library banned-book investigation!”


“Look, you went to Columbia School of Journalism. This is what we bold courageous journalists do. We’re the conscience of the nation. We speak truth to plumber.”


Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 11:10 AM | Report abuse

Chris:
I am glad to see Omaha catching your radar. I really think Obama will pull it off and make history for the first time a state has officially split its electoral college vote. (I am disregarding faithless electors of the psat.) I think this may be a tipping point that might have more states adopt the Maine/Nebraska model.

Omaha has a good concentration of Democrats. Obama campaigned here in person in February. Obama has three offices in Omaha and has been advertising on television agressively. Hillary Clinton will be in town on Wednesday and will be conducting an Obama rally at our convention center exhibition hall. I have never had co-workers discussing politics with me but have heard so many people talk about voting for Obama this time around.

Posted by: ooooomaha | October 20, 2008 11:10 AM | Report abuse

mrn744: WTF?? Your comments appear to be translated from a language not readily translated to English.

Posted by: jimimosey | October 20, 2008 11:08 AM | Report abuse

"I am for sure not liking all the big Money Obama is using to influence the voters..."

I would simply point out that the money Obama is using to "influence" voters comes from an unprecedented influx of donations from normal people giving relatively small amounts.

Posted by: jk_newhard | October 20, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse

There Great deal of democratic elections its all big money are we going back ?

If all democtats, Nancy would say come on Obama we approve pull the trigter( she might think its trigger on taxes) Obama thinks now he is experienced enough and pulls of the Nuclear trigger, Then he calls all his experts and asks what to do now


Enough Media stop propganda

Posted by: mrn744 | October 20, 2008 10:57 AM | Report abuse

There is no Great deal of democracy in elections its all big money are we going back ?

If all democtats, Nancy would say come on Obama we approve pull the trigger( she might think its trigger on taxes) Obama thinks now he is experienced enough and pulls of the Nuclear trigger


Enough Media stop propganda

Posted by: mrn744 | October 20, 2008 10:56 AM | Report abuse

There Great deal of democratic elections its all big money are we going back ?

If all democtats, Nancy would say come on Obama we approve pull the trigter( she might think its trigger on taxes) Obama thinks now he is experienced enough and pulls of the Nuclear trigger


Enough Media stop propganda

Posted by: mrn744 | October 20, 2008 10:55 AM | Report abuse

You cannot compare polls from 1996 to polls now - or even 2004. You have the cellphone effect now, which means fewer people have landlines, which in turn changes the adjustments the pollsters make.

Posted by: AlishaS | October 20, 2008 10:48 AM | Report abuse

so this is how the Obama regime is going to be - ask a simple question and the media truth squad comes after you?

Joe the plumber finally got to ask Obama a single question that revealed his true intention. for that he will be pilloried.

the rest of can simply get your wallets out.

We are going from a President whose hide is so thick he never defends himself against smears his whole term, to the thin-skinned version who will never allow an unvarnished thought to escape.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 20, 2008 10:45 AM | Report abuse

If there are all demorcats, Nancy might say to Obama come on pull the trigger( she might be saying that for taxes) and Obama might pull of Nuclear trigger saying Present

Posted by: mrn744 | October 20, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

By the way i dont want all deomcarts in charge of senate and white house its too risky.

Posted by: mrn744 | October 20, 2008 10:42 AM | Report abuse

OH should be red because Buckeye Staters consistently pick a candidate for dubious reasons. Many there are still making picks based on "values." Is there a stupider state in this Union, or one more eager to be crushed by the Stupid Hammer.

My understanding is that early returns from the Silver State are coming in at a rate of 3 to 1 in favor of the Dems. The Hammer of the Stupid is bracing itself for a tidal wave washing the has-been McCain and the idiot Palin into history - are you?

Posted by: HammeroftheStupid | October 20, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Its all Big Money and Media. I dont see a great deal of democracy in these elections any more.

And its absolutely stunning people of America want to media to choose the next president. Bush first then Obama now

I havent yet decided though whom to Vote for.

I am for sure not liking all the big Money Obama is using to influence the voters


Also i didnt like the way he is going to affect small and big business with his tax cuts , some needs to have employment before having tax cuts. and employment exists only if business are given tax cuts

Keep fightign Mccain you might win me and lots of undecided like me

Posted by: mrn744 | October 20, 2008 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Obama--08 writes
"According to the Wall Street Journal this had the effect of reducing the taxes of over 3 million people to zero, and in many cases these same people, instead of owing any taxes, received refunds. No one ever called Bush a 'socialist'. Why?"


Better marketing.



.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 20, 2008 10:36 AM | Report abuse

Hey, Chris: I agree that Ohio is competitive for McCain, but if you paint it red, by the same token don't you have to paint NC and MO blue? Obama leads pretty substantially in all of the recent polls from those two states, and in NC the actual early vote is favoring Obama heavily.

Posted by: Stonecreek | October 20, 2008 10:33 AM | Report abuse

Bold, but likely wrong. The Fix, as others have pointed out, over-credits the McCain 'edge' in Ohio while ignoring Obama gains in NC & MO. And Nebraska one? Why would they bother focusing on one EV there? Color me surprised.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 20, 2008 10:33 AM | Report abuse

"kerry had a huge lead too...????"

Certainly not at this point in the campaign, liar.

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | October 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Ohio should be listed as a tossup. A 1-point lead shouldn't count unless it is the final margin on Election Day.

Posted by: Heron | October 20, 2008 10:18 AM | Report abuse

I support the person who said last week it was time to start talking about replacement possibilities for SENATORS Obama and Biden. C'mon Chris don't keep us hanging. Who will replace these guys in the 60+ Democratic Senate?

Posted by: roboquinno | October 20, 2008 10:08 AM | Report abuse

NC should lean blue, NE-01 should still lean red, and OH should just be gray. Moving OH to red because of a Mason Dixon poll with McCain up 1 (and no track record there) is silly.

Posted by: ElrodinTN | October 20, 2008 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Well we finally got straight talk, but not from McCain, from Gen. Powell, one of the most elequent and telling endorsements in this campaign. An Obama campaign booster could not have asked for more, which leads us back to reality. Just think, McCain is now touting that "I'M IN CHARGE" HAIG is endorsing him. I guess next will be G. Gordon Liddy's endorsement. Even Newt stated that Gen. Powell's public support is very important because it shatters the myth that Obama is not ready. I'm sure that the hateful base, championed by Rush, will chalk it up to RACE, but the world knows better. The hateful base has forged a one time honest and heroic figure into a greedy, win at all costs, lock step puppet. Are you sure you want Sarah to lead us ... she of the simplistic, out of touch, inarticulate, one liners? I think we can and will do better.

Posted by: jbrubin | October 20, 2008 9:43 AM | Report abuse

Brad, Are you in CO yet?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 20, 2008 9:38 AM | Report abuse

I don't understand your logic. You give Ohio to McCain because of one poll showing a tie. You give Nebraska's 2nd to Obama because of one poll showing that Obama isn't behind by much. If he can catch up in Nebraska, why not Ohio? Also, Obama is leading every recent poll in North Carolina, but you still give it to McCain. Doesn't make sense.

Posted by: Blarg | October 20, 2008 9:29 AM | Report abuse

popasmoke:

If your analysis is correct, and I think it is, then Obama's job over the next week is to make that clear - there are many who will not spend the time doing the work you have done to understand exactly how the plan works. There is a large percentage of the country that only goes by what the latest sound bite is. Spending a few minutes explaining this during the half-hour infomercial he has purchased next week would be a good use of the time.

My R friends who are all fired up about Obama's tax rate raise haven't been able to tell me exactly amounts to too much in taxes - especially for people at these higher income levels.

Posted by: goodwater1 | October 20, 2008 9:25 AM | Report abuse

I am a CPA with 25 experience and let me comment on these tax matters because I live there. First of all I will have a Net Profit of 100k on Gross Sales of 250k this year. My taxes will be $1200 less under Obama's tax plan. 80% of my 400 individual tax returns will pay significantly less tax under Obama's plan. 90% of my small businesses will pay less tax under Obama's plan. That is just the math....

Posted by: bradcpa | October 20, 2008 9:24 AM | Report abuse

Folks,

Sorry for the Hawaii error. One errant mouse click is the reason. I've updated the map to reflect the certainty that Hawaii will go blue in 15 days.

Updated electoral vote count: Obama 319, McCain 219.

Thanks,
Chris

Posted by: Chris_Cillizza | October 20, 2008 9:07 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii is blue and is considered a lock for Obama. This site really needs to change it on their map. How absurd. If you're going to comment, at least do it correctly. I understand variations and disputes in battleground states, but Hawaii is as likely to go red as Missisippi is to go blue-not very.

The move on Ohio is wrong. It should be a tossup. The move on NE is wrong-at best that's a toss-up-and with a four point McCain lead its probably still red.

NC is a tossup as well. All the polls are within the margin of error and generally show a very slight Obama lead.

Florida is a toss up. All the polls are within the margin of error or show a slight Obama lead.

The method for calculating what state goes where is clearly flawed on this site. A four point deficit gives Obama NE, but a one point lead gives McCain OH? HUH?

Posted by: Cynicoftheleft | October 20, 2008 9:07 AM | Report abuse

"Posted by: thecannula | October 19, 2008 7:35 PM |

THIS MAN IS A WHINER. MOST SMALL BUSINESSES WON'T BE AFFECTED. THIS MAN IS WORRIED THAT HE MAY HAVE TO PAY AN EXTRA 15-20 OR 25K." -GATOR RON

***************
Obama Takes A HATCHET To Small Business

If you work for a small business, its profits -should Obama be elected- will be taxed at near 60% once it breaks Obama’s magic 250K, Because-

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY OBAMA WANTS TO REMOVE THE SOCIAL SECURITY PAYROLL CAP CREATING A 15.65% ADDITIONAL TAX ABOVE THE 3% ADDED INCOME TAX at this level, since LLC’s and Subchapter S small business profits pass through to the owner’s personal 1040!

If you’re the owner, you’re going to be tempted to do more with less and lay someone off-

If you’re an employee- you may, because of this new penalty on progress, be laid off.

John McCain wants to reduce business taxes and grow the economy, rather than squeeze the last drop of juice out of every successful business, large, medium, and small!
Exxon made billions, but why use a HATCHET to treat small and medium sized businesses the SAME WAY Sen.Obama?

“From each according to this ability, to each according to his need”
K.Marx 1875
B.Obama 2008

Someone Please point out how Marx's comment is different from what Obama said to Joe the Plumber in OHIO???????????????

GatorRon- Are YOU quoting Phil Graham with that brilliant "Whiner" remark? It's a LOT more than 25K, but even it were- that's one salaried position in some businesses....multiplied by millions of small businesses and many more positions per large business.

Hey ReptileGuy, can you say 12% unemployment? (I knew you could).


Posted by: thecannula | October 20, 2008 8:53 AM | Report abuse


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Reply
Thats not true. The current rate is 36% over $250K. It will go up to 39% for only that that is over $250K. The first $250K will still be the current 36%. That means if someone makes $270,000.00 they will pay 3% more on the amount over and above $250K net. So they will pay an added 3% of the $20,000. Thats an additional $600.00 for the year on a net income of $270,000.00. Are you telling me people will have to lay off workers or close their business over $50.00 a month? Mccain must think he is talking to people who are just plain stupid. Trust me, anyone making that kind of money knows what is what and knows Mccain is feeding them a line of sh&t. I wonder who does he thinks he is talking to? Mccain goes from one nutty set of lies to another. This week is his bullsh&t about taxes.
Posted by: popasmoke | October 19, 2008 7:05 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: popasmoke | October 20, 2008 9:06 AM | Report abuse

Your map is wrong. Maybe the colors are swapped.

Barack is from Hawaii. Hawaii has been well-represented by the Democratic party for 40 years.

So stop painting Hawaii red. We don't like it, and it makes us cross.

Posted by: novovida | October 20, 2008 8:59 AM | Report abuse

"Posted by: thecannula | October 19, 2008 7:35 PM |

THIS MAN IS A WHINER. MOST SMALL BUSINESSES WON'T BE AFFECTED. THIS MAN IS WORRIED THAT HE MAY HAVE TO PAY AN EXTRA 15-20 OR 25K." -GATOR RON

***************
Obama Takes A HATCHET To Small Business

If you work for a small business, its profits -should Obama be elected- will be taxed at near 60% once it breaks Obama’s magic 250K, Because-

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY OBAMA WANTS TO REMOVE THE SOCIAL SECURITY PAYROLL CAP CREATING A 15.65% ADDITIONAL TAX ABOVE THE 3% ADDED INCOME TAX at this level, since LLC’s and Subchapter S small business profits pass through to the owner’s personal 1040!

If you’re the owner, you’re going to be tempted to do more with less and lay someone off-

If you’re an employee- you may, because of this new penalty on progress, be laid off.

John McCain wants to reduce business taxes and grow the economy, rather than squeeze the last drop of juice out of every successful business, large, medium, and small!
Exxon made billions, but why use a HATCHET to treat small and medium sized businesses the SAME WAY Sen.Obama?

“From each according to this ability, to each according to his need”
K.Marx 1875
B.Obama 2008

Someone Please point out how Marx's comment is different from what Obama said to Joe the Plumber in OHIO???????????????

GatorRon- Are YOU quoting Phil Graham with that brilliant "Whiner" remark? It's a LOT more than 25K, but even it were- that's one salaried position in some businesses....multiplied by millions of small businesses and many more positions per large business.

Hey ReptileGuy, can you say 12% unemployment? (I knew you could).


Posted by: thecannula | October 20, 2008 8:53 AM | Report abuse

Obama has been leading McCain in North Carolina polling for weeks. On all the major aggregator / averaging sites (FiveThirtyEight.com, Pollster, RCP), Obama's average from polling shows him ahead of McCain in NC. Obama has more field offices, staff, and volunteers in NC.

If you're not going to color it blue, then NC should at least be a "toss-up" state on your map. There is no logic behind your keeping it a "red state" beyond a prejudice that says NC will vote Republican in 2008 simply because it did in 2004. If that's the case, then you might as well keep all Bush states "red." (And for the record, NC has gone "blue" more recently - and historically, more often - than VA.)

Posted by: libelian | October 20, 2008 8:52 AM | Report abuse

USA3, the problem with your analysis is that you ignore the fact that Obama is well ahead - very well ahead in fact - in enough states to grab 270 electoral votes without even working up a sweat. Neither Kerry nor Clinton were ever in that position, and besides, Obama's unprecedented cash advantage and ground game PLUS McCain's abysmal campaigning, means that he's unlikely to relinquish this lead.

Clutch at the "Bradley effect" straw if you like, but your guy is going down. Sorry.

Posted by: mjo1 | October 20, 2008 8:51 AM | Report abuse

For what it's worth, my wife and I live in an inner-ring Cleveland suburb and we both voted early for Sen. Obama. Just doing our part to turn Ohio blue!

Posted by: MetsCraig | October 20, 2008 8:50 AM | Report abuse

We need some sensible journalists to get in front of this Socialist accusation.

President Bush increased the Child Care Credit in 2003 from $600 to $1,000. According to the Wall Street Journal this had the effect of reducing the taxes of over 3 million people to zero, and in many cases these same people, instead of owing any taxes, received refunds. No one ever called Bush a 'socialist'. Why?

Posted by: Obama--08 | October 20, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

kerry had a huge lead too...????
and clinton was 20% up and won
by 9% over Dole,
do you people see a trend?
seems that the people of america
dont appreciate pollsters.
so if the polls give dem's a 6% overstating, and the bradley effect
kicks in 2-3%
obama better spend every dime
on ads' and quit planning
his celebration.
NOBAMA

Posted by: USA3 | October 20, 2008 8:16 AM | Report abuse

Nonsense!
I don't conduct polls but have lots of relatives in the Cleveland area. All former industrial workers, some retired some laid off. All own homes - nothing fancy, mind you, just your basic american frame "oversized doghouse" type in the suburbs. All patriotic, flag-waving, Republican voting working class whites.
Poniacs and camaros in eth driveways, etc.
They're like flesh & blood representations of their own caricatures. Republican mostly due to anti-Societ/anti-Communist/anti-socialist brainwashing of the past 60-65 years or so.
THey're like the Pavlovian dogs reacting to the word "socialist" - they start panting and foaming at the mouth. And this is apart from their fundamentally racist attitudes. This is a microcosm of majority of people on Ohio - I just don't see how a majority there can be swung to the Obama camp.
Besides, the panic pronouncements out of DC have subsided nad gas prices have dropped to a manageable $3.23/gal.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 20, 2008 7:58 AM | Report abuse

JD - pls contact me at
mark_in_austin@operamail.com

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 20, 2008 7:58 AM | Report abuse

If you give BHO HI and give McC NV, VA, and FL, BHO still wins. That seems significant.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 20, 2008 7:56 AM | Report abuse

Surely Hawaii should be blue? Unless there is some secret polling the Fix chooses to conceal from its loyal Fixistas?

Switching Hawaii over to Obama's column gives him 319 electoral votes to McCain's 219-- a very photogenic 100-vote lead indeed.

Posted by: appealtosanity | October 20, 2008 7:39 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii must be a mistake by Chris. Pollster has Obama leading there by 64-30.

Posted by: ambolt | October 20, 2008 7:36 AM | Report abuse

I wouldn't throw Ohio into the Red column just yet. I think it will come down to turn out and the Democrats have the edge in that BIG time. Not to mention the fact that the democrats have registered about twice as many new voters as the GOP. If even half of those show up then Obama wins it.
And there is a new poll in NC that shows Obama up by two. With the heavy spending he is doing there and the recent rally he had after the Colin Powell endorsement I would look for that number to climb up to five points in two days time.

Posted by: AndyR3 | October 20, 2008 7:31 AM | Report abuse

When we think of great leaders of the past, we think of oratory - how well were they able to articulate problems and solutions? We often remember words as much as events. ..........

http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/19/obama-kennedy-lincoln-jefferson/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 20, 2008 7:25 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii is red?

Posted by: workinglasshero | October 20, 2008 7:03 AM | Report abuse

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