Daily Fix Poll: What's to blame for Lisa Murkowski's apparent loss?

By Aaron Blake

Theories abound as to why Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) appears to have gone down to defeat in Tuesday's primary.

The predominant one, of course, is that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) endorsement still carries plenty of weight among the GOP base in her home state, and that it delivered for attorney Joe Miller on Election Day. Both Murkowski and Miller cited Palin's backing when asked about Tuesday's results.

But, as discussed in today's Morning Fix, there were myriad other factors at work, too. They include a ballot proposition that would force minors seeking abortions to notify their parents (not helpful for pro-abortion rights Murkowski), Mike Huckabee's endorsement of Miller, Murkowski's vote for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailout, and Murkowski's decision not to go negative in her advertisements.

(The Fix still thinks it was Miller's strength in the Aleutian Islands -- bet ya didn't know that!)

All of these -- with perhaps the exception of the Aleutian Islands thing -- probably played into Miller's performance, with his lead holding at 2,000 votes with 98 percent of precincts reporting and upwards of 8,000 absentee ballots to count. But which one was the biggest?

As we do every day (hence "Daily" Fix poll), we ask you.