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Shattered Predictions AND T-Shirts!

Yesterday, we asked unaffiliated political operatives to offer their predictions about the first, second and third-place finishers for both Democrats and Republicans in the Iowa caucus. We also asked the political pros to give us their best guess on the storyline coming out of Iowa.

Post politics producer Sarah Lovenheim scanned the predictions and lists the best of the best below. As for the predictions made by The Fix community, Sarah is diligently wading through them right now and we will have official results either later today or over the weekend.

To the winners -- in the political pros and Fix amateurs categories -- go the spoils. "The Fix" official t-shirts are being ordered as we speak and will be mailed to the winners. Wear them loud and proud. If you didn't win a t-shirt, there's always New Hampshire when we will do it all again.

First, the caucus results -- in case you don't watch television, listen to the radio or -- God forbid -- read The Fix. Barack Obama won the Democratic race with 38 percent, followed by John Edwards with 30 percent and Hillary Clinton with 29 percent. Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee scored 34 percent, Mitt Romney took 25 percent and Fred Thompson placed third with 13 percent.

Here are yesterday's predictions from the political pundits:

Surprisingly, Republican strategists came closest to predicting Democratic results, and Democratic strategists best guessed how Republicans fared.

John Weaver was the only one -- out of nine operatives sampled -- to predict the Democratic lineup entirely, and even his numbers were off. Take a look:

Obama: 32 percent
Edwards: 27 percent
Clinton: 26 percent


Only two out of the nine operatives called Huckabee's win in the Republican race -- kudos to Democratic pollster Jeff Lizst of Anzalone Liszt and Democratic strategist Marc Elias of Perkins Coie. Elias came closest, predicting results would show Huckabee at 34 percent.

No one predicted Fred Thompson would place in the top three. John McCain was the popular third-place pick.

As for the storyline? Republican strategist Ed Failor Jr of Iowans for Tax Relief nearly hit home, guessing it would be: "Romney didn't win by nearly enough considering all the money he spent in Iowa. Fantastic Iowa brain trust....but even they couldn't sell Mitt."

T-shirts for Weaver, Elias and Failor!

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 4, 2008; 4:19 PM ET
Categories:  Fix Notes  
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Next: The Fix Does Manchester

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