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The Live Fix!

Another of live chatting with Fixistas is in the books. Among the topics we covered in this week's edition of the "Live Fix": where things stands in Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, how much trouble is Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) really in and some really great political names.

Missed this week's chat? Check out the full transcript and remember to block out 11 a.m. to noon every Friday on your calendar. Hilarity will ensue. (NOTE: Fix promises of hilarity are not guaranteed.)

Here are a few of our favorite questions from this week's Live Fix:

NY, NY: I'm thinking of loading up on Corzine stock on Intrade. What do you think? He's currently trading at 60%. Will he pull it out?

Chris Cillizza: Stock and Jon Corzine eh....

Just before I started this chat, I was working on the governors Line for the Fix and grappling with where to rank NJ.

Here are the things we know:

1. Voters don't like Jon Corzine
2. Voters don't like Chris Christie
3. Voters don't know Chris Daggett, the independent.
4. All other things being equal, New Jersey elects Democrats.

Number four is probably the most important point above. Corzine seems to have successfully turned the race into a "devil you know" situation and may wind up convicing 43 or 44 percent of the state's voters to pull the lever for him.

Critical to Corzine winning -- since he isn't likely to get more than about 44 percent of the vote -- is Daggett staying relevant and pulling double digits in the vote share.

It's not over yet but Corzine has pulled off a remarkable feat to be be in the position he is today.

Fairfax, Va.: Democrats have been on a relative roll in Virginia this decade, winning the governor's mansion in 2001 and 2005, winning back the state senate, both Senate seats, and in 2008 going blue on the presidential level and electing a majority Democratic congressional delegation. Why is Creigh Deeds having such a difficult time gaining traction against a pretty conservative opponent like Bob McDonnell?

Chris Cillizza: Take a little longer look at VA political history for the answer there.

In 1992, Bill Clinton got elected president and the next year Virginians elected George Allen (R) governor. Clinton was reelected in 1996 and in 1997 Virginians went with Jim Gilmore (R).

In 2000, George W. Bush won the presidency only to be followed by a Mark Warner (D) victory in Virginia the next year. Ditto for Bush's 2004 re-election and Tim Kaine's (D) victory in 2005.

Virginia is till very much a conservative-minded swing state and looks ready to return to those roots this fall.

Beau Biden: Saw him speak at a campaign event for his dad in early 2008. Was much better at time management for his speech, and the crowd responded very positively to him. Looked a lot like Brian Williams though.

Chris Cillizza: He DOES look like Brian Williams. People tell me I look like Chris Klein, which doesn't really sound like a compliment.

Lots of beau Biden questions today....

Yes, barring some unforeseen event, he is going to run for his dad's old seat in the Senate in 2010.

And, according to new polling out of Daily Kos, Biden and Rep. Mike Castle are in a dead heat at 46 Castle, 45 Biden .

This should be one of the closest races in the country next year. it may also be one of the most polite as the small size of Delaware means that politicians (and voters) shy away from the sort of negative campaigning that characterizes other high profile Senate races.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 16, 2009; 12:16 PM ET
Categories:  Fix Notes  
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Next: Friday Governors Line: What Will VA and NJ Mean?

Comments

An dead heat start is good news for the political new comer, neh? The new guy always has room to grow.

Posted by: theamazingjex | October 16, 2009 9:31 PM | Report abuse

Ohiocitizen, I often think the same thing when I look at Specter. He'll be 80 early next year. I like experience and all, and I can see that Robert Byrd, Lautenberg and the Hawaiians are mentally here, but they are all looking frail and there comes a point when you should be adult enough to hang it up.

Specter looked firm at the Town Hall Meetings (where one actually got a little worried for him when he was standing close to angry, well-fed middle America), but he is not going to compare well with robust Sestak.

There are some turtles in the Senate. It's amazing to realize that at 57, Joe Sestak would have just 31 senators younger than he is.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | October 16, 2009 8:10 PM | Report abuse

ohiocitizen asks
"Think age of the candidates may play into a Biden/Castle race?"

Could, but Biden would have to phrase it as who's the candidate of the future vs. who's the candidate of the past. Voters don't make up their minds based on whether you'll be in the majority or minority.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Congrats on beating Nate Silver in fantasy football. I imagine that can't be easy. I'm sure he knows the numbers down cold.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 16, 2009 1:54 PM | Report abuse

Ageism!

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Think age of the candidates may play into a Biden/Castle race? Castle running for a new office, basically a promotion at 70, while Biden at 40 is young and vigorous and could serve a long time and bring Delaware more long-term clout. Plus Delaware has really trended leftward over the past 25 or so years and is now solidly Democratic whereas from the 1950s-1980s it was a swing state and with a Democratic Senate Majority it could be argued that Biden as a Majority Senator could have more clout immediately than would Castle as a freshman Minority backbencher.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 1:14 PM | Report abuse

I thought it was a good chat this morning : )

EMOTICONS!

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 12:26 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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