The Live Fix!
Another of live chatting with Fixistas is in the books. Among the topics we covered in this week's edition of the "Live Fix": where things stands in Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, how much trouble is Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) really in and some really great political names.
Missed this week's chat? Check out the full transcript and remember to block out 11 a.m. to noon every Friday on your calendar. Hilarity will ensue. (NOTE: Fix promises of hilarity are not guaranteed.)
Here are a few of our favorite questions from this week's Live Fix:
NY, NY: I'm thinking of loading up on Corzine stock on Intrade. What do you think? He's currently trading at 60%. Will he pull it out?
Chris Cillizza: Stock and Jon Corzine eh....
Just before I started this chat, I was working on the governors Line for the Fix and grappling with where to rank NJ.
Here are the things we know:
1. Voters don't like Jon Corzine
2. Voters don't like Chris Christie
3. Voters don't know Chris Daggett, the independent.
4. All other things being equal, New Jersey elects Democrats.
Number four is probably the most important point above. Corzine seems to have successfully turned the race into a "devil you know" situation and may wind up convicing 43 or 44 percent of the state's voters to pull the lever for him.
Critical to Corzine winning -- since he isn't likely to get more than about 44 percent of the vote -- is Daggett staying relevant and pulling double digits in the vote share.
It's not over yet but Corzine has pulled off a remarkable feat to be be in the position he is today.
Fairfax, Va.: Democrats have been on a relative roll in Virginia this decade, winning the governor's mansion in 2001 and 2005, winning back the state senate, both Senate seats, and in 2008 going blue on the presidential level and electing a majority Democratic congressional delegation. Why is Creigh Deeds having such a difficult time gaining traction against a pretty conservative opponent like Bob McDonnell?
Chris Cillizza: Take a little longer look at VA political history for the answer there.
In 1992, Bill Clinton got elected president and the next year Virginians elected George Allen (R) governor. Clinton was reelected in 1996 and in 1997 Virginians went with Jim Gilmore (R).
In 2000, George W. Bush won the presidency only to be followed by a Mark Warner (D) victory in Virginia the next year. Ditto for Bush's 2004 re-election and Tim Kaine's (D) victory in 2005.
Virginia is till very much a conservative-minded swing state and looks ready to return to those roots this fall.
Beau Biden: Saw him speak at a campaign event for his dad in early 2008. Was much better at time management for his speech, and the crowd responded very positively to him. Looked a lot like Brian Williams though.
Chris Cillizza: He DOES look like Brian Williams. People tell me I look like Chris Klein, which doesn't really sound like a compliment.
Lots of beau Biden questions today....
Yes, barring some unforeseen event, he is going to run for his dad's old seat in the Senate in 2010.
And, according to new polling out of Daily Kos, Biden and Rep. Mike Castle are in a dead heat at 46 Castle, 45 Biden .
This should be one of the closest races in the country next year. it may also be one of the most polite as the small size of Delaware means that politicians (and voters) shy away from the sort of negative campaigning that characterizes other high profile Senate races.
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