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Predicting the 2010 midterm election outcome

With Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) announcement Monday that he will not seek a third term in 2010, there is real talk of the Senate majority now being in play in this fall's election.

And, for the last few months, independent observers have been predicting Republican gains of 25 seats (or higher) in the House -- numbers that if the political environment doesn't brighten for Democrats could endanger the party's hold on that chamber as well.

So, we thought we would let Fixistas weigh in on what you all thought the likeliest outcome will be in November. Will Democrats lose one chamber -- and, if so, which one -- or might they keep control of both? Is losing the House AND the Senate now in play?

Vote below. We'll update the results throughout the day.

By Chris Cillizza  |  February 16, 2010; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Fix Poll  
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Next: Winners and losers from Evan Bayh's retirement

Comments

The Democrats have such huge majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, there is almost no way the Republicans will regain control of either, let alone both, in one election. Two Congressional elections could be a different story, especially if Obama and Democrats in Congress continue being incompetent on the two most important issues: health care and jobs recovery.

Posted by: Aprogressiveindependent | February 16, 2010 11:39 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe


Cherry-pick this....


CNN says that 52% of Americans say Obama does not deserve a second term.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 16, 2010 8:33 PM | Report abuse

Why should everyone else lose their positions when it is Obama's fault ???

Posted by: 37thand0street
---------------------------------------
Because they are statists beholden to the Premier.

Posted by: leapin | February 16, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

No, he's not talking about republicans, doofus.

Posted by: jasperanselm
---------------------------------------
Right. He is talking about today's NeoCom Statist Destructionist PArty.

Posted by: leapin | February 16, 2010 5:19 PM | Report abuse

I don't think anyone expects the democrats to have the same majority they have now. I would say that we are looking at a 52-48 senate and probably 225-210 house. IF they go for reconciliation, then you are looking at 49-51 senate and 210-225 house (GOP control). Now for most liberals, this monstrosity also known as Obamacare is a hill they will die on and would rather infect our society with this burden and lose control of congress than to have something more limited and reasonable. They also know if they get this passed, it will be impossible to reverse it because when is the last time Congress killed an existing program?

_____________________________________-


Exactly - why in the world did the democrats not go for something more limited and reasonable ???


NOW the democrats are facing getting picked off, one-by-one, on that hill.

Obama has no idea what he is doing, he has to go.

Why should everyone else lose their positions when it is Obama's fault ???


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 16, 2010 5:16 PM | Report abuse

You mean pieces of protoplasm that evolved from the primodial slime have meaning?

Posted by: leapin


No, he's not talking about republicans, doofus.

Posted by: jasperanselm | February 16, 2010 4:57 PM | Report abuse

The only way the centrists can save themselves - and save the democratic party - is to get Obama to resign before he does any more damage to the democratic party. The damage is extensive.


The democrats really do not realize what their position is.


The democratic agenda has completely imploded - it is gone - the American public has rejected it.


So where do the democrats go ???

If the democrats get rid of Obama, and go into the fall election as a re-vamped party, they have a chance. Otherwise, the anti-Obama forces will be energized and ready to pounce on ALL the democrats.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 16, 2010 4:52 PM | Report abuse

What's up with the ability to post comments on prior thread? It's closed down.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | February 16, 2010 4:52 PM | Report abuse

yeah and he posts teenager cheers whe.n a Democrat dies. What a sick tasteless creep.

Posted by: Noacoler
------------------------------------------
You mean pieces of protoplasm that evolved from the primodial slime have meaning?

Posted by: leapin | February 16, 2010 4:43 PM | Report abuse

"You're the one with the asassination fantasies, Joke.

Posted by: drindl"

Jesus christ. Is jaked starting with the Obama assassination jokes again?

==

yeah and he posts teenager cheers whe.n a Democrat dies. What a sick tasteless creep.

Posted by: Noacoler | February 16, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

"You're the one with the asassination fantasies, Joke.

Posted by: drindl"

Jesus christ. Is jaked starting with the Obama assassination jokes again?

Posted by: DDAWD | February 16, 2010 3:05 PM | Report abuse

drindl:

In addition to me personally not wanting anyone assassinated, it is against federal law to threaten to take the life of, to kidnap, or to inflict bodily harm upon the President of the United States, the President-elect, the Vice President or other officer next in the order of succession to the office of President of the United States, or the Vice President-elect.

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

I don't think anyone expects the democrats to have the same majority they have now. I would say that we are looking at a 52-48 senate and probably 225-210 house. IF they go for reconciliation, then you are looking at 49-51 senate and 210-225 house (GOP control). Now for most liberals, this monstrosity also known as Obamacare is a hill they will die on and would rather infect our society with this burden and lose control of congress than to have something more limited and reasonable. They also know if they get this passed, it will be impossible to reverse it because when is the last time Congress killed an existing program?

Posted by: TexasProud1 | February 16, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

tedri50:

You don't think it's even "possible" that the Dems lose both Houses of Congress? That kind of thinking is what got Karl Rove and George Bush is trouble ; )

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

i know you media guys like the horse races, but lets calm down, eh? you're only gonna embarrass yourselves.

Posted by: tedri50 | February 16, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

I don't want anyone murdered as I love every human being and do not want anyone to perish, but only to have everlasting life.

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

You're the one with the asassination fantasies, Joke.

Posted by: drindl | February 16, 2010 2:15 PM | Report abuse

drindl:

It's actually GOOD to see you back here (I thought for a minute there, you were Amy Bishop ; )

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view.bg?&articleid=1232943&format=&page=1&listingType=Loc#articleFull

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 1:59 PM | Report abuse

"Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell is now offering effusive praise for $24 million in federal funds that allowed him to establish an office of Health Information Technology and to fund a program helping Virginia doctors transition to electronic medical records.

One year ago, McDonnell told reporters the stimulus plan "is not going to be good long-term for America," though he did say according to the Virginian-Pilot that the Commonwealth should still "collect its share of the stimulus anyway."

Yesterday, McDonnell (R) lauded Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius for "advancing such a critical issue."

"The federal funding awarded to Virginia will allow us to develop an information technology system that will safeguard our ability to track health records and provide our physicians with the technological tools they need to provide the highest quality service possible," he said of the grants, both of which were funded through the recovery act."

Saying no with one side of your mouth and praising the money on the other.

Posted by: drindl | February 16, 2010 1:58 PM | Report abuse

This isn't 1994 - the voters can (and will) remember what happened to the country when the republicans were the majority in the house and senate as well as in the white house. The voters aren't happy with either party. And the teabaggers are the ultimate wild card. Republicans are quite good at cannibalizing their own.

Posted by: ILDem | February 16, 2010 1:53 PM | Report abuse

This is why it's important Dems keep control. So that idiotic ideas like this don't become the law of the land:

'As states around the country face budget crises, “deficit peacocks” continue to demand cutting social spending while ruling out tax increases on those who have benefited immensely from years of conservative policies. In Utah, deficit peacocks are suggesting eliminating 12th grade to help close the state’s $700 million budget gap.'

Posted by: drindl | February 16, 2010 1:53 PM | Report abuse

I actually think reconciliation would help the Dems. I think the image problem that they have is far more related to their impotence than their policies. Remember that they are trying to do pretty much what they promised they'd try to do. It shouldn't be any secret that Obama would try and reform health care. No secret that he would try to enact environmentally friendly laws. It's far more of a problem that Democrats aren't getting this done than unhappiness with what they are trying to do. If they were to break filibusters, they would accomplish a heck of a lot with the 59 members they do have. The filibuster is popular, but I really doubt voters will punish politicians based on procedural rules, especially if they are productive.

Personally, I think the Dems should go for it. I know the flip side is they would like to have the option when they aren't in power. Ideally, that would be available, but Republicans have abused it so much, that it's in the best long-term interests of the country just to no longer have it. Yeah, it's nice to have a protection for the minority, but when the Republicans filibuster delaying the switch to digital TV, that's a good indication that the filibuster has run its course.

Posted by: DDAWD | February 16, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

Thank you, TexasProud1. I also voted (just once though) that it currently is "most likely" the Dems keep both Houses. You are dead on if the Dems cram Obamacare down our throats, they WILL lose the majority in Congress completely.

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

drindl,

relax it is just an online poll that has no bearing whatsoever on the actual outcome. I think it's a 40% chance the GOP retakes the House and a 25% chance that they retake the Senate. I voted that the Dems keep both, but I really hope I'm wrong. I would love for Prince Harry and Botox Nancy to eat some crow. I will say this, if they try reconciliation, I will be 95% confident that they lose both houses, and the senators who right now are probably keeping their seats like Feingold, Boxer, Gillibrand will be toast if they go along with it.

Posted by: TexasProud1 | February 16, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Well, it looks like the previous post is infested with teabaggers. Makes sense with this one. I guess when you're ultra-conservative, every day is Mardi Gras.

Oh yeah, happy Mardi Gras. Too bad it's so effin' cold outside.

Posted by: DDAWD | February 16, 2010 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Like I said, if things keep going the same for Dems, they probably will lose both the House and Senate.

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

It's like the poll last week on Republican nominees. Palin is disliked by the vast majority of the country, but dominated on this board. Same people are dominating this poll. Yeah, Dems are going to lose a good number of seats in the House and Senate, but for so many people to think they are going to lose both outright?.

Posted by: DDAWD | February 16, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

This 'poll' is a joke. It clears every time you refresh, so you can vote over and over again. And who has the time to waste to do that except right-wing trolls, who probably each have 'voted' 500 times?

Posted by: drindl | February 16, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

This is the most silly crystal ball gazing that talking heads who do not have anything to do would engage in. To predict who wins in November is really statistically way off.

It is also amusing how all these right wing commentators think only democrats would lose seats. The republicans are also going to lose seats so please spare us all these voodoo predictions!!!

Posted by: ameys1msncom | February 16, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

Well, if things keep going the same for Dems, they probably will lose both the House and Senate. Most "progressives" have to admit that much.

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

All this poll proves is that there are lots of dark side blog-spammers who post here every day. The libs/progressives aren't nearly as psy ops- minded, even though their taxes may help finance the op.

http://nowpublic.com/world/how-u-s-spy-ops-censor-web-political-speech
http://nowpublic.com/world/govt-fusion-center-spying-pretext-harass-and-censor
NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | February 16, 2010 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Even I have to admit it is "most likely" the Dems keep both Houses (of course, until a few weeks before the MassachusettEs special election, it was "most likely" that the Dems would keep Ted Kennedy's seat as well ; )

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 16, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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