Illinois primary day election prediction contest

Looks like Quinn is in the lead at the moment.

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Governor:
Hynes 53%
Quinn 46%

Senate:
Giannoulias 40%
Hoffman 35%
Jackson 23%

For the heck of it, R Governor:
McKenna 29%
Ryan 23%
Dillard 13%
Andrzejewski 16%
Brady 12%

Governor-Democrat

Quinn-57 %
Hynes-43 %

Governor-Republican

Dillard-30 %
Ryan-28 %
McKenna-20 %
Brady-18 %
Andrzejewski-2 %
Proft-2 %

Senator-Republican
Hughes-51 %
Kirk-49 %

Senator-Democrat
Hoffman-32 %
Giannoulias-31 %
Jackson-30 %
Others-7 %

I haven't been following these particular primaries at all... but I really want a t-shirt, and you can't win if you don't play.

Quinn: 53%
Hynes: 47%

Giannoulias: 43%
Hoffman: 36%
Jackson: 21%

First: Why no love for Minnesota, which is holding precinct caucuses tonight? There's more than 20 people running for governor -- and there will be straw polls in all three major parties. (That's cuz most people in the state thinks that they could do a better job than Pawlenty.) Can't we get any credit for bundling up and walking four or five blocks to talk to neighbors in groups of 50 or 60 (or 600 at the 2008 precinct caucuses in my precinct)?

Okay, enough about MN. Now on to IL:

D Sen:
Giannoulias: 44 %
Hoffman: 41.5 %
Jackson: 11 %

D Gov:
Hynes: 46.1 %
Quinn: 53.3 %

R Sen:
Kirk: 66 %
Hughes: 29 %

#ilgov

dem:
hynes: 53%
quinn: 47%

gop:
mckenna: 32%
dillard: 30%
ryan:23%
brady:11%
andrzejewski: 2%
proft: 2%

#ilsan

dem:
giannoulias: 40%
hoffman: 37%
jackson: 23%

gop:
kirk: 67%
hughes: 31%
thomas: 1%

Quinn--53
Hynes--47

Lexi--49
Hoffman--39
Jackson--12

Hynes 52
Quinn 48

Giannoulias 47
Hoffman 45
Jackson 8

Lexi: 47%
Hoff: 35%
Jackson: 18%

Quinn: 56%
Hynes: 43%

Oh. and Dillard wins by 5% and Kirk by 62%. Coulson by a hair in IL-10 (5%) and Seals by 3%.

Democratic Senate:
David Hoffman: 42%
Alexi Giannoulias:40%
Cheryle Jackson: 12%
Other: 6%

Democratic Governor:
Dan Hynes: 54%
Pat Quinn 46%

Welcome to the show that never ends...

GOP
Dillard 35
McKenna 25
Ryan 20
Other 20

Kirk 65
Hughes 20
Other 15

Dems
Hynes 52
Quinn 48

Giannoulas 44
Hoffman 49
Jackson 7

But you forgot to ask about the most interesting race of all.

Todd Stroger will be out as Cook County Board president. Toni Preckwinkle will take the Dem nomination by a narrow margin over Dorothy Brown with the water guy coming in a strong third and Todd a distant fourth.

One day I'm going to win one of these contests.

Governor race:
Quinn 47%
Hynes 53%

Senate race:
Sexi Lexi 45%
Hoffman 43%
Jackson 11%

Storyline: Angry voters oust another incumbent, Lexi only just survives.

Guv:
Hynes - 55%
Quinn - 45%

McKenna - 26%
Ryan - 23%
Dillard - 18%
Brady - 12%
Andrzejewski - 9%

Senate:
Kirk - 85%
Hughes - 13%

Giannoulias - 38%
Hoffman - 35%
Jackson - 28%

After voting since 1980, I disappeared from the voting book so I had the distinct honor of casting a provisional ballot.

Hynes 60
Quinn 32

Lexi - 40
Hoffman - 47
Jackson 13

Republicans and Democrats both have races today - so there are 4 races altogether.

Here are my predictions.

Governors Race:

Democrats:

Quinn 52%
Hynes: 48%

Republicans:

McKenna: 30%
Dillard: 24%
Ryan:18%
Brady:9%
Andrzejewski: 11%
Proft:7%

For the US Senate seat:

Republicans:
Kirk: 72%
Hughes: 21%
Thomas: 2%
Martin: 2%
Lowery: 1%

Democrats:
Giannoulias: 33%
Hoffman: 30%
Jackson: 35%
Marshall: 1%

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2010/02/02/palin_vs_rahm/index.html

Finally, liberals and Palin agree on something: Fire Rahm

The former VP candidate issues a Facebook call for the White House to fire chief of staff Rahm Emanuel

Politico is making a really good point - the Cook County Board President race is going to have an impact today. The reason is those candidates are the ones who will be able to get the turn-out higher on the Southside of Chicago.

Stoger's father held this position, and then the younger Stroger came in and raised the sales tax - so he is regarded as out.

So the challengers are the ones who may hold the key - and this may benefit Quinn and Cheryle Jackson.

The reports from the Chicago Tribune have me wondering about the turn-out on the Northside of Chicago.

One aspect that Chris did not report is the cemetary at the center of the scandal is a black cemetary.

Cheryle Jackson could edge this thing out.

I am reminded by one thing Obama did say - when he ran for US Senate he only wanted to run if there were two white candidates and one black candidate - any other combination Obama said he would not run.

Cheryle Jackson has that combination right now.

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U.S. Senate

Lexi- 37
Hoffman- 35
Jackson- 25

Dem Gov

Quinn- 49
Hynes- 47

I borrowed "reason5's" layout, as it was done very nicely.

Governor's Race:

Democrats:
Hynes: 52%
Quinn: 48%

Republicans:

Dillard: 26%
McKenna: 25%
Ryan:21%
Brady:15%
Andrzejewski: 8%
Proft: 5%

The nominee's will be Dillard vs. Hynes for governor of Illinois.

For the US Senate seat:

Republicans:
Kirk: 65%
Hughes: 30%
Thomas: 2%
Martin: 2%
Lowery: 1%

Democrats:
Hoffman: 41% (upset)
Giannoulias: 40%
Jackson: 17%
Marshall: 1%
Meister: 1% (dropped out)

Kirk vs. Hoffman race. It will be Kirk's race to lose.

Anthony McMahon-Mt. Prospect, IL

The Chicago Tribune is reporting low voter turnout - this is a primary - a sign that the Illinois voters do not know who to vent their anger at.

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Mark Kirk will win the Senate in November - in this kind of year, if the Republicans put up a good candidate, that candidate will win.

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StirringthePot:

I live in IL. Yes. All parties that qualified for the ballot are on it. I voted today and the parties are: Democrat, Republican and Green.

Republicans and Democrats both vote today. Here are my predictions.

Governors Race:

Democrats:
Hynes: 53%
Quinn: 47%

Republicans:
McKenna: 27%
Dillard: 25%
Ryan:18%
Brady:14%
Andrzejewski: 11%
Proft: 5%

The nominee's will be McKenna vs. Hynes for governor of Illinois.

For the US Senate seat:

Republicans:
Kirk: 67%
Hughes: 28%
Thomas: 2%
Martin: 2%
Lowery: 1%

Democrats:
Giannoulias: 43%
Hoffman: 38%
Jackson: 18%
Marshall: 1%

A Kirk vs. Giannoulias race, with Kirk the frontrunner to take back Obama's seat.

Chris,

Do Republicans there vote today as well?

Quinn: 54%
Hynes: 43%

Giannoulias: 39%
Hoffman: 40%
Jackson: 17%

Quinn - 48
Hynes - 52

Gianoullias - 48
Hoffman - 44
Jackson - 8

(November Prediction: Kirk by 4%)

Governor's Race:
Quinn 48%
Hynes 52%

Senate Race:
Lexi 47%
Hoffman 43%
Jackson 10%

Quinn - 48
Hynes - 52

Gianoullias - 48
Hoffman - 44
Jackson - 8

(November prediction: Kirk by 4%)

Quinn - 45%
Hynes - 53%

Alexi - 40%
Hoffman - 42%
Jackson - 17%

Hynes - 52%
Quinn - 48%

Giannoulias - 45%
Hoffman - 43%
Jackson - 12%

Quinn - 46%
Hynes - 51%

Hoffman - 34%
Alexi - 33%
Jackson - 28%

For Governor:
Hynes - 54%
Quinn - 45%

Dillard - 32%
Ryan - 28%
McKenna - 25%
Others - 15%
For Senator:
Gianoullias - 45%
Hoffman - 30%
Jackson - 25%

Kirk - 60%
Hughes - 20%
Others - 20%

You know, there's a primary going on in Illinois.

Governor: McKenna will show up everybody. Go Cubs!

Senate: John Arrington will surprise the status quo with his grassroots campaigning.

Quinn - 42%
Hynes - 56%

Sexi Lexi - 46%
Hoffman - 43%
Jackson - 10%

BB