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Illinois primary day election prediction contest

Welcome to the official start of primary season!

Voters are voting in Illinois with a slew of races up and down the ballot including for governor, Senate and at least four potentially competitive House contests.

And, as loyal readers know, if it's a primary day, it's an election prediction contest for the Fix!

So, in the comment section below, we want your picks -- order of finish AND percentages! -- on the two most competitive races on the ballot today: the Illinois Democratic gubernatorial primary and the Illinois Democratic Senate primary.

In the governor's race, Gov. Pat Quinn is seeking to avoid an ignominious primary defeat at the hands of state Comptroller Dan Hynes who, until now, had been best known as the guy who came in second to President Obama in a 2004 Senate primary.

The race has devolved into nastiness in the last few weeks with Hynes using footage of former Mayor Harold Washington badmouthing Quinn in ad and Quinn hitting back by alleging misconduct by Hynes in his handling of the absolutely awful grave-robbing scandal at Burr Oak Cemetery.

On the Senate side, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has long been the favorite but problems with his family's bank continue to dog him and former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman is moving up. Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson is also in the race as are several unknown candidates not expected to break one or two percent.

Make your predictions on both races in the comments section below. You must make a guess on both to qualify for the coveted official Fix t-shirt, which will be won by the person who comes closest to the pin in the two races combined.

Polls close in Illinois at 8 pm eastern so any predictions made after that time won't count.

Get to it!

By Chris Cillizza  |  February 2, 2010; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Governors , Senate  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Illinois primary day: The year of the outsider (continued)?
Next: Harold Ford on the Colbert Report

Comments

Looks like Quinn is in the lead at the moment.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 2, 2010 9:17 PM | Report abuse

Governor:
Hynes 53%
Quinn 46%

Senate:
Giannoulias 40%
Hoffman 35%
Jackson 23%

For the heck of it, R Governor:
McKenna 29%
Ryan 23%
Dillard 13%
Andrzejewski 16%
Brady 12%

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | February 2, 2010 7:17 PM | Report abuse

Governor-Democrat

Quinn-57 %
Hynes-43 %

Governor-Republican

Dillard-30 %
Ryan-28 %
McKenna-20 %
Brady-18 %
Andrzejewski-2 %
Proft-2 %

Senator-Republican
Hughes-51 %
Kirk-49 %

Senator-Democrat
Hoffman-32 %
Giannoulias-31 %
Jackson-30 %
Others-7 %

Posted by: dannyricci | February 2, 2010 7:12 PM | Report abuse

I haven't been following these particular primaries at all... but I really want a t-shirt, and you can't win if you don't play.

Quinn: 53%
Hynes: 47%

Giannoulias: 43%
Hoffman: 36%
Jackson: 21%

Posted by: acasilaco | February 2, 2010 6:33 PM | Report abuse


First: Why no love for Minnesota, which is holding precinct caucuses tonight? There's more than 20 people running for governor -- and there will be straw polls in all three major parties. (That's cuz most people in the state thinks that they could do a better job than Pawlenty.) Can't we get any credit for bundling up and walking four or five blocks to talk to neighbors in groups of 50 or 60 (or 600 at the 2008 precinct caucuses in my precinct)?

Okay, enough about MN. Now on to IL:

D Sen:
Giannoulias: 44 %
Hoffman: 41.5 %
Jackson: 11 %

D Gov:
Hynes: 46.1 %
Quinn: 53.3 %

R Sen:
Kirk: 66 %
Hughes: 29 %

Posted by: prairiepopulist | February 2, 2010 5:40 PM | Report abuse

#ilgov

dem:
hynes: 53%
quinn: 47%

gop:
mckenna: 32%
dillard: 30%
ryan:23%
brady:11%
andrzejewski: 2%
proft: 2%


#ilsan

dem:
giannoulias: 40%
hoffman: 37%
jackson: 23%

gop:
kirk: 67%
hughes: 31%
thomas: 1%

Posted by: pikachu_the_impaler | February 2, 2010 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Quinn--53
Hynes--47

Lexi--49
Hoffman--39
Jackson--12

Posted by: Eisen4Life | February 2, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

Hynes 52
Quinn 48


Giannoulias 47
Hoffman 45
Jackson 8

Posted by: rbarker08 | February 2, 2010 5:08 PM | Report abuse

Lexi: 47%
Hoff: 35%
Jackson: 18%

Quinn: 56%
Hynes: 43%

Oh. and Dillard wins by 5% and Kirk by 62%. Coulson by a hair in IL-10 (5%) and Seals by 3%.

Posted by: mauime13 | February 2, 2010 5:07 PM | Report abuse

Democratic Senate:
David Hoffman: 42%
Alexi Giannoulias:40%
Cheryle Jackson: 12%
Other: 6%

Democratic Governor:
Dan Hynes: 54%
Pat Quinn 46%

Posted by: culader | February 2, 2010 5:06 PM | Report abuse

Welcome to the show that never ends...

GOP
Dillard 35
McKenna 25
Ryan 20
Other 20

Kirk 65
Hughes 20
Other 15

Dems
Hynes 52
Quinn 48

Giannoulas 44
Hoffman 49
Jackson 7

Posted by: mdr107 | February 2, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

But you forgot to ask about the most interesting race of all.

Todd Stroger will be out as Cook County Board president. Toni Preckwinkle will take the Dem nomination by a narrow margin over Dorothy Brown with the water guy coming in a strong third and Todd a distant fourth.

Posted by: chi-town | February 2, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

One day I'm going to win one of these contests.

Governor race:
Quinn 47%
Hynes 53%

Senate race:
Sexi Lexi 45%
Hoffman 43%
Jackson 11%

Storyline: Angry voters oust another incumbent, Lexi only just survives.

Posted by: JayPen | February 2, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

Guv:
Hynes - 55%
Quinn - 45%

McKenna - 26%
Ryan - 23%
Dillard - 18%
Brady - 12%
Andrzejewski - 9%

Senate:
Kirk - 85%
Hughes - 13%

Giannoulias - 38%
Hoffman - 35%
Jackson - 28%

Posted by: sykesjustin | February 2, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

After voting since 1980, I disappeared from the voting book so I had the distinct honor of casting a provisional ballot.

Hynes 60
Quinn 32

Lexi - 40
Hoffman - 47
Jackson 13

Posted by: ILDem | February 2, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

Republicans and Democrats both have races today - so there are 4 races altogether.


Here are my predictions.

Governors Race:

Democrats:


Quinn 52%
Hynes: 48%

Republicans:

McKenna: 30%
Dillard: 24%
Ryan:18%
Brady:9%
Andrzejewski: 11%
Proft:7%


For the US Senate seat:

Republicans:
Kirk: 72%
Hughes: 21%
Thomas: 2%
Martin: 2%
Lowery: 1%


Democrats:
Giannoulias: 33%
Hoffman: 30%
Jackson: 35%
Marshall: 1%

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 2, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2010/02/02/palin_vs_rahm/index.html

Finally, liberals and Palin agree on something: Fire Rahm

The former VP candidate issues a Facebook call for the White House to fire chief of staff Rahm Emanuel

Posted by: JakeD2 | February 2, 2010 2:01 PM | Report abuse

Politico is making a really good point - the Cook County Board President race is going to have an impact today. The reason is those candidates are the ones who will be able to get the turn-out higher on the Southside of Chicago.

Stoger's father held this position, and then the younger Stroger came in and raised the sales tax - so he is regarded as out.


So the challengers are the ones who may hold the key - and this may benefit Quinn and Cheryle Jackson.

The reports from the Chicago Tribune have me wondering about the turn-out on the Northside of Chicago.

One aspect that Chris did not report is the cemetary at the center of the scandal is a black cemetary.


Cheryle Jackson could edge this thing out.

I am reminded by one thing Obama did say - when he ran for US Senate he only wanted to run if there were two white candidates and one black candidate - any other combination Obama said he would not run.

Cheryle Jackson has that combination right now.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 2, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

U.S. Senate

Lexi- 37
Hoffman- 35
Jackson- 25

Dem Gov

Quinn- 49
Hynes- 47

Posted by: BENDIKC | February 2, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

I borrowed "reason5's" layout, as it was done very nicely.


Governor's Race:

Democrats:
Hynes: 52%
Quinn: 48%

Republicans:

Dillard: 26%
McKenna: 25%
Ryan:21%
Brady:15%
Andrzejewski: 8%
Proft: 5%


The nominee's will be Dillard vs. Hynes for governor of Illinois.

For the US Senate seat:

Republicans:
Kirk: 65%
Hughes: 30%
Thomas: 2%
Martin: 2%
Lowery: 1%

Democrats:
Hoffman: 41% (upset)
Giannoulias: 40%
Jackson: 17%
Marshall: 1%
Meister: 1% (dropped out)

Kirk vs. Hoffman race. It will be Kirk's race to lose.


Anthony McMahon-Mt. Prospect, IL

Posted by: am1968 | February 2, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

The Chicago Tribune is reporting low voter turnout - this is a primary - a sign that the Illinois voters do not know who to vent their anger at.

.


Mark Kirk will win the Senate in November - in this kind of year, if the Republicans put up a good candidate, that candidate will win.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | February 2, 2010 12:59 PM | Report abuse

StirringthePot:

I live in IL. Yes. All parties that qualified for the ballot are on it. I voted today and the parties are: Democrat, Republican and Green.

Posted by: am1968 | February 2, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Republicans and Democrats both vote today. Here are my predictions.

Governors Race:

Democrats:
Hynes: 53%
Quinn: 47%

Republicans:
McKenna: 27%
Dillard: 25%
Ryan:18%
Brady:14%
Andrzejewski: 11%
Proft: 5%


The nominee's will be McKenna vs. Hynes for governor of Illinois.

For the US Senate seat:

Republicans:
Kirk: 67%
Hughes: 28%
Thomas: 2%
Martin: 2%
Lowery: 1%

Democrats:
Giannoulias: 43%
Hoffman: 38%
Jackson: 18%
Marshall: 1%

A Kirk vs. Giannoulias race, with Kirk the frontrunner to take back Obama's seat.

Posted by: reason5 | February 2, 2010 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Chris,

Do Republicans there vote today as well?

Posted by: StirringthePot | February 2, 2010 11:59 AM | Report abuse

Quinn: 54%
Hynes: 43%

Giannoulias: 39%
Hoffman: 40%
Jackson: 17%

Posted by: j_d_r | February 2, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

Quinn - 48
Hynes - 52

Gianoullias - 48
Hoffman - 44
Jackson - 8

(November Prediction: Kirk by 4%)

Posted by: ryancrowley | February 2, 2010 11:53 AM | Report abuse

Governor's Race:
Quinn 48%
Hynes 52%

Senate Race:
Lexi 47%
Hoffman 43%
Jackson 10%

Posted by: rogden71 | February 2, 2010 11:52 AM | Report abuse

Quinn - 48
Hynes - 52

Gianoullias - 48
Hoffman - 44
Jackson - 8

(November prediction: Kirk by 4%)

Posted by: ryancrowley | February 2, 2010 11:50 AM | Report abuse

Quinn - 45%
Hynes - 53%

Alexi - 40%
Hoffman - 42%
Jackson - 17%

Posted by: brittonrick | February 2, 2010 11:25 AM | Report abuse

Hynes - 52%
Quinn - 48%

Giannoulias - 45%
Hoffman - 43%
Jackson - 12%

Posted by: pcarey12 | February 2, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Quinn - 46%
Hynes - 51%


Hoffman - 34%
Alexi - 33%
Jackson - 28%

Posted by: lazerboots | February 2, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

For Governor:
Hynes - 54%
Quinn - 45%

Dillard - 32%
Ryan - 28%
McKenna - 25%
Others - 15%
For Senator:
Gianoullias - 45%
Hoffman - 30%
Jackson - 25%

Kirk - 60%
Hughes - 20%
Others - 20%

Posted by: kewollin | February 2, 2010 11:18 AM | Report abuse

You know, there's a primary going on in Illinois.

Governor: McKenna will show up everybody. Go Cubs!

Senate: John Arrington will surprise the status quo with his grassroots campaigning.

Posted by: lnelson1 | February 2, 2010 10:58 AM | Report abuse

Quinn - 42%
Hynes - 56%

Sexi Lexi - 46%
Hoffman - 43%
Jackson - 10%

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | February 2, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

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