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Texas Governors Race: Prediction Time!

The polls in Texas have been open for just under two hours as voters decide their preferred nominees for governor, U.S. House and a slew of downballot contests.

The race everyone is watching is the Republican gubernatorial primary between Gov. Rick Perry, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Debra Medina.

What once was seen as a jump ball race between Perry and KBH has turned into something of a rout for the incumbent governor with the only real drama today over whether he can win the 50 percent of the vote he needs to avoid an April 13 runoff.

Can Perry make it over the majority mark? We want to hear from you. Offer your predicted finish in Republican primary (with percentages) in the comments section below. Closest to the mark wins a brand-spanking new official Fix t-shirt.

Only predictions offered in the comments section are eligible for the t-shirt. And, since polls close in Texas at 8 pm eastern, any entry after that time won't count.

Need some guidance (and who doesn't)? Check out the latest polling on the race as well Dan Balz's piece detailing Hutchison's struggles in the race. (You can also check out our Fix post from last week on what went wrong for KBH.)

By Chris Cillizza  |  March 2, 2010; 10:39 AM ET
Categories:  Governors  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Perry, Hutchison face off in Texas primary
Next: Texas Governor's Primary: What to Watch For

Comments

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Posted by: nikejordans1 | March 4, 2010 7:22 AM | Report abuse

I was only 1% off each (did someone else get closer?):

Perry 52, Hutchison 32

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:45 AM

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 3, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Perry finishes with 51%, 30% Hutchison, and 19% Medina.

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 3, 2010 1:01 AM | Report abuse

Kay Bailey Hutchison is about to concede the Texas governors race. She has called Gov. Rick Perry and Debra Medina, a KBH aide says.

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 10:31 PM | Report abuse

Holding steady: Perry 52% (with 21% precincts reporting) 30% Hutchison 17% Medina

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 10:28 PM | Report abuse

Polls are closed. Perry is currently at 53% (with 2% precincts reporting)

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 9:03 PM | Report abuse

Perry - 50.7
Hutchison - 24.2
Medina - 17.1

Posted by: dognabbit | March 2, 2010 8:15 PM | Report abuse

I don't see a prediction from broadwayjoe, so I'll submit one for him.

Martha Coakley: 55
Scott Brown: 40
Huffingtonpost: 5

Coakley wins by 15.
No runoff needed. √ check

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 2, 2010 7:12 PM | Report abuse

I hope I'm not too late.

Perry: 55
Hutchison: 28
Medina: 15
Bush: 2

The only runoff will be Hutchison leaving town. Quickly.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 2, 2010 7:08 PM | Report abuse


perry 53

hutchison 38

medina 9

Posted by: tadaffron | March 2, 2010 5:25 PM | Report abuse

Ah, the Brick Wall responds with insults. As usual.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 2, 2010 5:00 PM | Report abuse

FairlingtonBlade


There is a middle - only Obama does not want it -


Did you see Obama get visibly upset when Boehner started to talk about such a compromise?

Your comments are delusional -

You are basically saying that Obama's campaign commitments were a complete crock.


Yea, well if you put it that way......


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 2, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Medina is a third party candidate, and there support always collapses come election time. So I'm picking Perry to outperform, due to the enthusiasm the far right has at the moment.

Perry 49
KBH 37
Medina 14

Posted by: JayPen | March 2, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Let me get this straight:


The liberal position is this: the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th amendments DO APPLY TO THE STATES.


The 2nd Amendment APPLIES ONLY TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.


The 10th Amendment APPLIES TO NO ONE.

Is that the correct position of the liberals ???


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 2, 2010 4:47 PM | Report abuse

As the summit proved that Republicans have elevated policy disagreements to philosophical ones, there is no middle.

Government can't do big things. Except S-CHIP. And overhaul the tax system. And welfare reform.

Reconciliation is wrong. Except for tax cuts. And S-CHIP. And welfare reform. And judicial nominations.

Black is white. Up is down. Bipartisanship means you do what I want to do. Who needs to win elections? Just hold your breath until the other side gives in.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 2, 2010 4:45 PM | Report abuse

Obama now wants to add 4 Republican ideas to his 2000 page bill - complete with massive government spending and massive new taxes.


Is this a complete joke???

Does Obama have a fundamental misunderstanding as to what the objections are - so he is unable to meet the Republicans in the middle ???

Or is Obama just stupid ???

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 2, 2010 4:41 PM | Report abuse

lukemiller:

Did you try clicking on the "latest polling" link (above)? The RCP average has Medina at 17.8%

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 4:06 PM | Report abuse

Perry 48%
KBH 43%
Medina 9%

Shocked to see so many people predicting more than 10% for Medina.

Posted by: lukemiller | March 2, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Easy.

Perry 42%
Hutchison 29%
Medina 19.5%

Posted by: kristinnsmith | March 2, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Just try to get into an elevator with Sen. Bunning - he will bite your head off !


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 2, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Perry:47%
Hutchison: 39%
Medina: 14%

Perry is forced into a runoff, which he will likely win. But the general election in my home state of Texas is definitely a toss-up.

Posted by: klducoff | March 2, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Hmmm...

Perry 42, Hutchinson 34, Medina 24

Posted by: heartstenciled | March 2, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

Perry: 43
KBH: 31
Medina: 26

Posted by: j699 | March 2, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

Perry 42

Medina 30

Hutchinson 28

Posted by: ma261988 | March 2, 2010 3:01 PM | Report abuse

Perry 49
KBH 37
Medina 14

Posted by: Inkstain58 | March 2, 2010 2:32 PM | Report abuse

Perry - 49
Medina - 28
Hutchison - 23

Tea Partay

Posted by: JakeD3 | March 2, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Perry - 48%
KBH - 38%
Medina - 13%

Posted by: nicroxylifegmailcom | March 2, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Perry 52%
Hutchison 34%
Medina 14%

Medina less of a factor than many expected. Perry wins outright. KBH plays nice and endorses Perry, but does not resign her seat. White easily wins the D nod.

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | March 2, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Goodhair 50.01
KBH 35
Medina 14.99

Posted by: bsimon1 | March 2, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Perry: 48.7
Hutchison: 37.1
Medina: 14.2

Posted by: tjbv1 | March 2, 2010 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Perry 50
Hutchison 29
Medina 21

Posted by: acasilaco | March 2, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

Medina: 48
Perry: 40
KBH: 12

Posted by: RandyHilton | March 2, 2010 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Perry: 46
Hutchison:35
Medina:19

Posted by: mpr3 | March 2, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

Perry: 52%
Hutchison: 32%
Medina: 16%

Posted by: w_brown_4 | March 2, 2010 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Perry 53
KBH 29
Medina 17

Posted by: unipostid | March 2, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Perry 50
Hutch 37
Medina 13

Posted by: brentb52 | March 2, 2010 12:58 PM | Report abuse

Perry 44.9

Hutchison 28.9

Medina 17.9

Posted by: lalava1953 | March 2, 2010 12:54 PM | Report abuse

Rick Perry - 45%
Kay Bailey Hutchison - 42%
Debra Medina - 13%

Posted by: andyroo312 | March 2, 2010 12:53 PM | Report abuse

Perry 44
KBH 30
Medina 26

Posted by: CCDMembership | March 2, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

Perry 51, Hutchison 29, Medina 20

Posted by: juanchin | March 2, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse


Perry: 47.5
Hutchison 27.3
Medina: 25.2

Posted by: culader | March 2, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Perry 47
Hutchison 34
Medina 19

Posted by: ravensfan20008 | March 2, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Perry 49.5%
Medina 25.3%
KBH 25.2%

Run-off
Medina 51%
Perry 49%

General
White 60%
Medina 40%

Posted by: dcraven925 | March 2, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Perry 50%
Hutchison 38%
Medina 12%

Posted by: nativeSATX | March 2, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Perry 48.3
KBH 32.1
Medina 19.5

Posted by: mark_in_austin | March 2, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Perry 55%
Hutchison 27%
Medina 18%

Posted by: ccrainato | March 2, 2010 12:30 PM | Report abuse

King2641:

At least change the percentages a little bit between your multiple posts.

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Perry 48%
Hutchison 40
Medina 7
Other 5

Posted by: King2641 | March 2, 2010 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Definitely a runoff:

Perry 42 percent
Hutchinson 34 percent
Medina 24 percent

And Perry wins runoff but loses general to White

Posted by: kdemko1 | March 2, 2010 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Perry 50
Hutchison 27
Mediana 15

Posted by: Penazoid | March 2, 2010 12:13 PM | Report abuse


Perry 48%
Hutchison 40
Medina 7
Other 5

Posted by: King2641 | March 2, 2010 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Is there a "limit" to how many entries for The Fix t-shirt?

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 12:08 PM | Report abuse

If I post every five minutes until polls close, I think I can cover all possibilities.

Posted by: JakeD3 | March 2, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

Perry 48
Hutchison 43
Medina 9

Runoff!

Posted by: chocoguy0 | March 2, 2010 11:56 AM | Report abuse

KBH forces a run-off and comments that "There is a long time between now and April 6. Anything can happen."

Goodhair - 48
KBH - 30
Medina - 21
Kinky - 1

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 2, 2010 11:56 AM | Report abuse

Perry 50%, Medina 11%, Hutchison 39%

Posted by: gene4655 | March 2, 2010 11:52 AM | Report abuse

Perry 53
KBH 30
Medina 17

Posted by: cbhampto_99 | March 2, 2010 11:49 AM | Report abuse

Perry - 53%

Hutchison - 34%

Medina - 13%

Posted by: jordangpittman | March 2, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Perry 52, Hutchison 32, Medina 16

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:45 AM | Report abuse

Perry 42, Hutchison 33, Medina 25

Posted by: patrican | March 2, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

CAC2, I have some health problems - but without getting specific - I was laughing so hard I had an accident -

guys notice my response to doof - I extended his point by referencing San Diego - I stay away from here weeks on end because I hate the petty moronic cross statements which seem to take control of this board all too often

Posted by: bobbywc | March 2, 2010 11:38 AM | Report abuse

Perry 52, Hutchison 32, Medina 16

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

A bunch of backwards rednecks deciding who will be the lead backwards redneck. That's exciting...

Posted by: CAC2 | March 2, 2010 11:29 AM | Report abuse

A bunch of backwards rednecks deciding who will be the lead backwards redneck. That's exciting...

Posted by: CAC2 | March 2, 2010 11:29 AM | Report abuse

Perry 58, Hutchison 35, Medina 7

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:28 AM | Report abuse

doof, I think we are both correct - but to add substance to your argument - go back to San Diego - the Republican right tried to block KBH from the convention - She is a Senator because no republican will challenge her, and no Democrat can win in Texas because the Lower Rio Grande valley (LRGV) will not vote until the Democrats clean out the corruption in the LRGV.

A Democrat DA accepted 1 million dollars payable to his office in exchange for dropping a criminal investigation against an engineering firm which billed the Brownsville Navigation District 21.4 million for a non-existent bridge - FBI Director Mueller finds nothing to investigate - the people have had it and will not vote Democrat

Posted by: bobbywc | March 2, 2010 11:27 AM | Report abuse

Perry 50, Hutchinson 29, Medina 21

Posted by: akinsdem | March 2, 2010 11:24 AM | Report abuse

Perry 47
Hutchison 28
Medina 25

Posted by: MichaelJJH | March 2, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

I have goodhair kind of high because I know a lot of Medina's supporters do not want to chance a run-off with KBH so they are pulling for Mr. Goodhair

Posted by: bobbywc | March 2, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

Perry 49


Kay 32


Medina 19


Waooo haaaa haaaaa


funny how everyone how everyone down there is backing off of secession.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 2, 2010 11:22 AM | Report abuse

This election is interesting for two reasons - Texas Republicans are rejecting a Washington insider KBH, and embracing the right.

Posted by: bobbywc | March 2, 2010 11:12 AM

Texas is rejecting Kay because she is a RINO. She's pro-illegal. She deserves to lose. Same will happen to McCain.

Posted by: doof | March 2, 2010 11:22 AM | Report abuse

Texas Inside Joke

Goodhair 53%
Avoid Justice 37%
Ms911conspiracy 10%

Posted by: bobbywc | March 2, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Perry 51.5

Hutchinson 30.5

Medina 18

Posted by: slombardo | March 2, 2010 11:19 AM | Report abuse

bobbywc:

What's YOUR prediction?

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Perry 54, Hutchison 28, Medina 18

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

Perry 51
KBH 34
Medina 15

Posted by: brian72975 | March 2, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

The street talk is, if Perry has to go to a run-off, Medina's voters will put him over the top with no problem.

This election is interesting for two reasons - Texas Republicans are rejecting a Washington insider KBH, and embracing the right.

Texas is changing - when Bush I went further right against Bill Clinton he lost.

the question is, will Texas middle of the road Independents go right or go with Bill White (Dem.)

The fact that Shami outspent White big time and has some intereting ideas, but will loose big time tonight tells me even Texas Democrats are still too to the right of the national Democrats - they just could not give a fair shot to Shami - who is a good man.

Bill White will loose in November unless there is a shocker related to Perry.

Why? Bill White made a big deal about getting in bed with the most corrupt Democrats in the State of Texas. In Starr County it was announced this morning the Texas rangers were called in over mail ballots - this is where Democrats steal elections - politiqueras get paid by the ballot - the more they steal from seniors for any given candidate the more they get paid.

early polling in cameron county shows the people refused to vote. the people of the LRGV will never vote Republican - but they also will not vote in the numbers needed for a Dem to win statewide until a Dem denounces the corruption in the LRGV. Bill not not only refused to denounce the corruption, he also embraced the politicos known for using politiqueras - this angered the voters and as the results will show tonight - the super super super majority stayed home.

I placed a blank ballot in the box such as many other Texans in the LRGV

An interesting side issue - texas is where innocent people come to die from a lethal injection - Medina (Rep) and Shami (Dem) both called for a stay of all executions until texas can get its act together - White (Dem) said - let the innocent die - this should tell you just how radical right wing Texas has become

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

Posted by: bobbywc | March 2, 2010 11:12 AM | Report abuse

Perry 48, Hutchison 27, Medina 15

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:10 AM | Report abuse

Perry: 51
Hutchison: 39
Medina: 10

Posted by: Mary81 | March 2, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

Perry 45, Hutchison 30, Medina 15

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

Perry 50.4
Hutchinson 38.6
Medina 9.8

Posted by: prairiepopulist | March 2, 2010 11:05 AM | Report abuse

perry 53, hutchison 33, medina 14

Posted by: stug | March 2, 2010 11:01 AM | Report abuse

Perry 51, Hutchison 35, Medina 14

Posted by: JakeD2 | March 2, 2010 11:00 AM | Report abuse

Perry 48, Hutchinson 32, Medina 20

Posted by: IceTrea98 | March 2, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

Perry 50, Hutchison 34, Medina 16

Posted by: alex58 | March 2, 2010 10:47 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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