Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity

An independent move to GOP

Independent voters are moving strongly to Republican candidates in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, an ominous sign for Democrats whose gains in 2006 and 2008 were built on heavy support from unaligned voters.

Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) is walloping New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) among independents with a 58 percent to 31 percent margin, according to exit polling in the contest.

If those numbers hold it would represent a major turnaround from 2008 when President Barack Obama won independents 51 percent to 47 percent over Arizona Sen. John McCain. In both of those races, independents comprised just more than one-quarter of the New Jersey electorate.

In Virginia, former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell's (R) victory was driven by his wide 65 percent to 34 percent margin among independents. Compare that to the 48 percent Obama won among independents in Virginia in 2008 and you begin to see the depths of the rout currently underway in the Commonwealth.

Obama's appeal to independents was at the foundation of his successful 2008 coalition. And, Independents are an increasing block of the national electorate and, as a result, their importance will only increase between now and November 2010.

By Chris Cillizza  |  November 3, 2009; 8:57 PM ET
Categories:  Hall of Fame , White House  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: McDonnell wins, NJ and NY-23 await
Next: Republican Sweep NJ, VA Governors Races

Comments

This analysis is very poorly done. The number of people who self-identify as Republicans is at historic lows. Many of those who left the party are moderates who think the Republican Party has become too extreme, while others are tea partiers who think the party is too moderate.

Most of these ex-Republicans will now self-identify as "independent", and most of them will lean towards the Right. That's why Obama is not doing as well among independents: that category is full of refugees from the Republican Party.

Posted by: jasperjava | November 4, 2009 2:35 AM | Report abuse

Independent voters are an inertial force in the body politic, always responding to previous forces rather than actively planning. Passive objects, always satisfied to select from the choices others present them. It's like having a room full of backseat drivers. Or trying to lead a passive-aggressive convention.

Democrats need to keep chipping away at Independents and bringing them into the fold, even if it means a blue dog or two. Any project that has half the stake holders wandering around pretending that it's not their fault and shifting their allegiance back and forth depending on current trends is in a world of trouble. That's what we have in America, with our huge number or Independents, aka unaligned, aka uncommitted, aka passive hunks of inert matter.

Posted by: nodebris | November 4, 2009 1:14 AM | Report abuse

Ah yes, the angry mob voter. Who had no problem with the previous administration, who actually were the ones who 'mortgaged our future' wiht an unnecessary war in Iraq that has cost us a trillion dollars. But who's counting when you're talking about the 'will of the people' and 'reckless government spending'?

Brainless as*sholes like this are who perpetuates the mindless spending of *big government* You want to continue to vote them out? Maybe you might want to start with beginning to vote them out. The illiteracy and mindlessness of this 'movement' is beyond disturbing,

"The current administration has put us in a deep financial hole and mortgaged our future with reckless government spending. The administration and congress are not acting according to the will of the people. It is time to CONTINUE TO VOTE THEM OUT!!!

Posted by: AngryMobVoter | "

Posted by: drindl | November 3, 2009 10:55 PM | Report abuse

The current administration has put us in a deep financial hole and mortgaged our future with reckless government spending. The administration and congress are not acting according to the will of the people. It is time to CONTINUE TO VOTE THEM OUT!!!

Posted by: AngryMobVoter | November 3, 2009 10:37 PM | Report abuse

Ha ha ha ha ha.

Posted by: snowbama | November 3, 2009 10:20 PM | Report abuse

What this post, uh, leaves out is that in Virginia you don't register as being with a party, you just register. So the so-called "independents" are self-identified. The term has no meaning in the state. This would, as Rev. Wright might say, completely "invalidate" the narrative that indies are flocking to the GOP at least in regard to Virginia.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 3, 2009 10:15 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Cillizza,

Please refresh my memory; who signs your various paychecks? Is this the official DNC statement for tonight?

Posted by: philgrimm1 | November 3, 2009 10:14 PM | Report abuse

Can I repeat that this is really sloppy and lazy?

"The Fix writes
"Independent voters are moving strongly to Republican candidates in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, an ominous sign for Democrats whose gains in 2006 and 2008 were built on heavy support from unaligned voters."


This reporting is useless without crosstabs & turnout data. The Fix has been in this business long enough to know that divining national trends from a handful of elections is a fool's errand."

Posted by: drindl | November 3, 2009 10:05 PM | Report abuse

A big fat vote of no confidence for Barry Harry and nanny.

Posted by: snowbama | November 3, 2009 10:01 PM | Report abuse

39th "GOP comeback" shout out. Check.
Citation to dubious "polling" of unknown methodology. Check.
Accurate transcription of current RNC/Drudge talking point. Check.
_______

Dude, nobody showed up for these off year elections. Nobody! So if Gomer and Goober and their pals could be persuaded to go to the polls after hanging out at the gas station, the "conservative" (great euphemism) won.

When the latest poll shows only 17% of Americans self-identify as GOPers, it's surprising this space is still pushing this GOP re-birth narrative, which the mothership (Drudge) coincidentally also fronted today.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 3, 2009 10:01 PM | Report abuse

divining national trends from a handful of elections is a fool's errand

True.

Posted by: shrink2 | November 3, 2009 9:57 PM | Report abuse

It appears as though in NJ, Corzine actually did surge to nearly 45% in the final weeks of the campaign after being unable to crack 40% prior to the final month of the campaign. However, the real story here from a polling standpoint appears to be the late collapse of Daggett, who was polling at 11-15% in nearly all pre-election polls, but who appears as though he will finish in the 6-8% range.

Interesting to see if this is a case of those expressing support for Daggett in polls staying home and not voting, or whether there was seepage away from Daggett among this group to Christie in the final days. Not sure how we know and verify that with any degree of certainty.

The anti-Corzine vote was always pretty much a 55% minimum---with the question of whether Daggett would reach double-digits on election day the key question.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | November 3, 2009 9:46 PM | Report abuse

The Fix writes
"Independent voters are moving strongly to Republican candidates in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, an ominous sign for Democrats whose gains in 2006 and 2008 were built on heavy support from unaligned voters."


This reporting is useless without crosstabs & turnout data. The Fix has been in this business long enough to know that divining national trends from a handful of elections is a fool's errand.


.

Posted by: bsimon1 | November 3, 2009 9:45 PM | Report abuse

"Yes it did start with Democrats, they focused to much on healthcare while Americans are still hurting from the economy. Worst, more and more people have no jobs with the holidays coming. Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014"

Ok, you have demonstrated your inability to recognize facts, do you recognize economic history?

When a major recession hits, the jobs loss and jobs recovery are lagging statistics, that is thatas the economy turns around, it takes months, (or under GWB, eight years) for jobs creation to follow and turn around as well. In George's eight years he watched the number of jobs in this country decrease every year. He is the ONLY president, Hoover included, to watch over a total net jobs loss over the life of his administration.

Note that the Obama administration is at least realistic enough to admit that jobs will be a problem for a while. Geiorge always talked as if he were making lots of new jobs when we were mostly exporting jobs to every thugocracy in the world.

Facts. little snippets of reality.

Nasty little things, aren't they?

Posted by: ceflynline | November 3, 2009 9:43 PM | Report abuse

The problem is both parties are worried about getting elected and re-elected rather than what is best for the american people. I have a problem with politicians stalling to see which way the wind blows while projects for railroads, buildings are put on ice and outsourcing of jobs that should be in america is rewarded. I didn't think the white house or congress should've backed down when the president was saying buy american. I see nothing wrong with promoting our own products.

Posted by: darrensj1 | November 3, 2009 9:35 PM | Report abuse

"Democrats and President Obama did this to themselves."

Good job.
Spelling and usage correct.
Message correct.

Problem though, Republican politicians are worse.

Simple.

Democrats bad.

Republicans, well,

good luck America.

Posted by: shrink2 | November 3, 2009 9:30 PM | Report abuse

Yes it did start with Democrats, they focused to much on healthcare while Americans are still hurting from the economy. Worst, more and more people have no jobs with the holidays coming.

Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014 | November 3, 2009 9:27 PM | Report abuse

I don't think this all started with democrats. Also, Republicans have been blocking unemployment benefits. I am an independent and I think both parties play games, but republicans will sabotage a situation just to win. McDonnell ran like Obama while Deeds ran like McCain. Deeds attacked rather than state who he was and what he was for. Also, debate performance was bad.

Posted by: darrensj1 | November 3, 2009 9:16 PM | Report abuse

A clean sweep for Republicans.
Democrats and President Obama did this to themselves. Our country comes 1st!
No Jobs,they let the unemployment extention drag on, too much goverment, Illegal Aliens taking American jobs, to many forms to fill out for veterans, lazy government employees, and to much corruption.

Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014 | November 3, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company