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Congressional Countdown: Some Dems May Miss the Wave

Congressional Countdown

A Key Race Scorecard -- Nov. 4, 2006

House (35 contested races)

Leans GOP
1
Toss-Up
21
Leans Dem
13

Senate (9 contested races)

Leans GOP
0
Toss-Up
4
Leans Dem
5

» Full Analysis

There seems little debate among political prognosticators that House Democrats are headed for major gains -- and a likely majority -- on Nov. 7.

But, even in the largest of political waves there are a handful of outliers -- seats controlled by the party riding the wave that will be lost.

In a recent article for the Rothenberg Political Report, analyst Nathan Gonzalez provided a historical perspective on wave elections and those they leave behind.

In 1994 Democrats lost 56 seats (34 incumbents and 22 opens) but managed to win four GOP-held open seats for a net loss of 52. In 1980, Democrats lost 37 seats but defeated three Republican incumbents and took an open GOP seat. Fourteen years earlier Democrats sustained a 43-seat loss mitigated slightly by pickups in four GOP seats. And, way back in 1958, 49 Republican-held seats switched parties but the GOP managed to win one back to their side.

So, if history is any guide, Democrats won't enjoy a clean sweep come Tuesday night. In the Countdown we take a look at who might be left at sea when (and if) the wave crashes.

Read the full analysis...

By washingtonpost.com Editors  |  November 4, 2006; 11:39 AM ET
Categories:  House , Senate  
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