Congressional Countdown: Some Dems May Miss the Wave
There seems little debate among political prognosticators that House Democrats are headed for major gains -- and a likely majority -- on Nov. 7.
But, even in the largest of political waves there are a handful of outliers -- seats controlled by the party riding the wave that will be lost.
In a recent article for the Rothenberg Political Report, analyst Nathan Gonzalez provided a historical perspective on wave elections and those they leave behind.
In 1994 Democrats lost 56 seats (34 incumbents and 22 opens) but managed to win four GOP-held open seats for a net loss of 52. In 1980, Democrats lost 37 seats but defeated three Republican incumbents and took an open GOP seat. Fourteen years earlier Democrats sustained a 43-seat loss mitigated slightly by pickups in four GOP seats. And, way back in 1958, 49 Republican-held seats switched parties but the GOP managed to win one back to their side.
So, if history is any guide, Democrats won't enjoy a clean sweep come Tuesday night. In the Countdown we take a look at who might be left at sea when (and if) the wave crashes.
November 4, 2006; 11:39 AM ET
Categories: House , Senate
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