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Congressional Countdown

Regular readers of The Fix know that we aim to provide the latest and greatest campaign news. In these remaining two weeks before the election, new developments will be unfolding at a rapid clip. We've launched a new feature to help readers keep track of the state of play in the House and Senate.

Congressional Countdown

A Key Race Scorecard -- Oct. 24, 2006

House(35 contested races)

Leans GOP
5
Toss-Up
21
Leans Dem
9

Senate (9 contested races)

Leans GOP
0
Toss-Up
4
Leans Dem
5

» Full Analysis

The "Congressional Countdown" is a joint venture between the Washington Post and the washingtonpost.com.

The Countdown is comprised of the 35 most competitive House races and 9 of the most closely fought Senate races and aims to provide a daily update of where things stand. The Countdown is NOT an attempt to catalogue every competitive contest in the country, rather it aims to show the pool of races most likely to add up to a House or Senate majority for Democrats.

Make sure to check the Countdown each morning for the latest developments in the fight for control. And then keep it locked on The Fix throughout the day for insight and analysis on the races to watch.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 24, 2006; 12:00 PM ET
Categories:  House , Senate  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Midterm Madness -- Test Your Political Forecasting Skills
Next: In Connecticut, Democrats Raise the Titanic

Comments

Hey Zouk, if you're going to attempt to insult my inteligence, at least spell 'Dumb' right.

Oh and surely you know what the DOW Jones represents, right? You know the difference between what the dow represents (and is up over 2001) and what Nasdaq represents (whish is down 56% since 2001)? You know the fundamental difference because you know so much about economics. So tell us, how many companies does the Dow track? What do those companies have in common? What about Nasdaq? Why is it important to note the disparity in performance between the two? Come on wizard of econ, tell us. Nope, guess you'd rather call us names than argue anything, even one point of substance.


Bark bark bark.

Posted by: Will | October 25, 2006 10:49 AM | Report abuse

Chris-
The race in the Pa 4th is heating up unexpectedly. Incumbant "Bushie" Melissa Hart is fighting for her political life against Democratic challenger Jason Altmire. The NRCC had to plug a fundraising hole so she could run TV spots. Also, she refuses to debate Altmire. Keep an eye on this one.

Posted by: Tico | October 25, 2006 9:50 AM | Report abuse

Zouk, the MD Senate poll showing a tie was clear outlier. Even Rasmussen puts Cardin up nine.

Posted by: Sean | October 24, 2006 9:20 PM | Report abuse

"I can also write anything I want here with absolutely no basis in reality."--kingofzouk

And you do it so WELL!

Certainly the revenue is nothing to worry about--the fact that even a record revenue still has us with INCREASING DEBT is.

Posted by: roo | October 24, 2006 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Talk about a minimum wage increase is completely ridiculous! Increasing the minimum wage only gets more people laid off from small businesses who can't afford to increase wages. Most companies already pay well above the $5.15/hr. If you increase the minimum wage to $7/hr, workers currently making $10/hr are going to want a hike in pay in order to be "fair". It will put a lot of stress on the economy for nothing but political banter.

Posted by: Paul | October 24, 2006 8:56 PM | Report abuse

I agree with many comments above that you need more than 35 House seats to look at the whole picture. By my estimate, the democrats will pick up 39 seats...so there are minimally 4 seats that I think will turn over that aren't on your list! To cover the bases, your list should have the top 50...a landslide is coming.

Posted by: Scott | October 24, 2006 5:35 PM | Report abuse

I'm not sure if anybody at the Post would bother to read these comments, but I'm wondering what happened to disqualify the Washington State Senate race from the "Countdown." Last I read of the race at The Fix, Mike McGavick's (R) "free fall" seemed to have been stemmed. This week, the Seattle Times endorsed him over Sen. Maria Cantwell (D).

In my own mind, the race is tightening -- if not proper tight. To the extent that Cantwell can convince me to vote "national," she'll win my vote. I would love for Congressional oversight of the White House. But, Cantwell seems so blah. I'm not sure if my opinion is widely shared, but if even the Seattle Times is willing to walk away from her, maybe the race should be considered. If it isn't, I'm curious what the polling shows.

Posted by: Chris - Seattle, WA | October 24, 2006 5:26 PM | Report abuse

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/24/business/24econ.html?hp&ex=1161748800&en=9825511f0fa7cbc3&ei=5094&partner=homepage

"The economy is virtually nowhere to be found among the campaign ads of embattled Republican incumbents fighting to hold onto their House or Senate seats. Nor is it showing up as a strong weapon in the arsenal of Republican governors defending their jobs from Democrats.

Oh, wait, these Republican incumbents are D plants, correct?

"I don't know of another election cycle in which the economy was so good, yet the election prospects for the incumbent party looked so bad," said Frank Luntz, a Republican strategist. "If something goes wrong, Republicans are to blame. If something goes right, Republicans don't get credit.""

Oh, wait, Luntz is a D plant, correct?

Time to face the truth. Oh, wait, the truth is a D plant, correct?

Posted by: Judge C. Crater | October 24, 2006 5:21 PM | Report abuse

you talkin' to me?

Posted by: taxi driver | October 24, 2006 5:18 PM | Report abuse

Zouk gone wild!

Posted by: party wid da king | October 24, 2006 5:17 PM | Report abuse

I'll take a double cheeseburger and fries. and I used to read your byline in the (com)Post. I guess I understand why they want to raise the min wage now.

Just what are these "journalists" qualified to do otherwise?

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 24, 2006 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone really care what the WaPo and its DNC hacks think anymore? With circulation down 200,000 in 4 years, with a huge population increase in its coverage area, don't they realize Americans don't have enough bird to use their rag to line the cages? what the WaPo has done with the Webb/Allen race is one the most dishonest, unethical journalistic hatchet job. YOu only have to buy Webb's books to see he used the N word hundreds of times, yet it was never mentioned in this rag. I know many have canceled their subscriptions to the WaPO, and more have contacted advertisers. The next round of lay offs we will hear how reporters are "starting new careers" and union workers "taking deserved early retirement". Bottom line, WaPo readership dwindles along with its relevancy and credibility.

Posted by: Karen | October 24, 2006 4:46 PM | Report abuse

Yeah that economy is sure something to fret about. that Unemployment is worth trying to fix. That record treasury revenue is very concerning.

do any of your points reside in reality and fact or do you just throw mush around for sport? I can also write anything I want here with absolutely no basis in reality. I bet I can get a bunch of Dum Libs to debate it for a while without anyone even being concerned with the truth of the statement. Let's try:

The sky is green.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 24, 2006 4:11 PM | Report abuse

goal - to wreck the US economy and stomp out all rights. Method: Last 6 years.

Posted by: Will | October 24, 2006 4:01 PM | Report abuse

goal - to wreck the US economy and stomp out all rights. Method: as follows:
1-Impose new rules and regulations to break the link between lobbyists and legislation - i.e limit free speech and the ability to take your issues before your representative.
2 -Allow the government to negotiate with drug companies and fix Medicare Part D - kill off all profitable drug companies and eliminate research into future cures.
3 - Stop Social Security and Medicare privatization plans in their tracks, ignore coming insolvancy and pretend nothing is wrong.
4 - Raise the minimum wage to $7.25 - fix prices outside market so teenagers can afford more beer and cigarettes, ignore small biz needs.
5 - Cut the interest rates on student loans in half, fix prices, eliminate half of student loans
6- Roll back subsidies to Big Oil and gas companies, increase gas and oil prices so middle class can suffer and eco-nuts can obtain financing.
7-Enact all the recommendations made by the independent 9/11 Commission, since Dems know nothing about security, rely on panel of pols to find answers. Create super-size government to solve all other problems.

Still not one Dem out there who knows anything about economics, national security or good government. Too bad you all didn't release this list of the stupidest ideas earlier so we could all tear them down. funny how they were so secret up to now. why was that? Maybe we should have smuggled them out in Berger's socks and told the editors at the NYT they were war secrets. then we all would have known about them.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 24, 2006 3:45 PM | Report abuse

"the problem was you all believed all those 'fake but accurate' polls"

Classic! Then turns around and cites one poll showing a tie (I assume KoZ is using the Survey USA poll as his claim that it is tied in MD)

MD
Oct. avg. Cardin +5.67%
Sept avg. Cardin +7.73%

Survey USA 10/17
Cardin(D)46%-Steele(R)46%
Zogby/WSJ Battleground 10/16
Cardin(D)51%-Steele(R)43%
Rasmussen 10/12
Cardin(D)53%-Steele(R)44%

MO
Oct. avg. McCaskill +1.14%
Sept. avg. Talent +0.98%

MasonDixon 10/19
McCaskill(D)46%-Talent(R)*43%
Zogby/WSJ Battleground 10/16
McCaskill(D)47%-Talent(R)*50%
Rasmussen 10/12
McCaskill(D)44%-Talent(R)*45%
Survey USA 10/11
McCaskill(D)51%-Talent(R)*42%
Rasmussen 10/2
McCaskill(D)47%-Talent(R)*46%

MT
Oct avg. Tester +6%
Sept. avg. Tester +6.5%

Mason Dixon 10/19
Tester(D)46%-Burns(R)*43%
Montana St. Univ 10/15
Tester(D)46%-Burns(R)*35%
Rasmussen 10/11
Tester(D)50%-Burns(R)*44%
Zogby/Reuters 10/2
Tester(D)46%-Burns(R)*42%
USA Today/Gallup 10/1
Tester(D)48%-Burns(R)*45%

NJ
Oct. avg. Menendez +4.81%
Sept. avg. KeanJr.+0.5%

MasonDixon 10/21
Menendez(D)*45%-KeanJr.(R)42%
Monmouth College 10/19
Menendez(D)*48%-KeanJr.(R)39%
Zogby/WSJ Battleground 10/16
Menendez(D)*45%-KeanJr.(R)47%Rasmussen 10/10
Menendez(D)*44%-KeanJr.(R)40%
Quinnipiac 10/10
Menendez(D)*49%-KeanJr.(R)45%

TN
Oct. avg. Ford +0.15%
Sept avg. Corker +1.12%

MasonDixon 10/20
Ford(D)43%-Corker(R)45%
Zogby/WSJ Battleground 10/16
Ford(D)42%-Corker(R)49%
Rasmussen 10/10
Ford(D)48%-Corker(R)46%
Survey USA 10/9
Ford(D)46%-Corker(R)48%
Zogby/Reuters 10/2
Ford(D)40%-Corker(R)40%
USA Today/Gallup 10/1
Ford(D)50%-Corker(R)45%
Rasmussen 10/1
Ford(D)48%-Corker(R)43%

VA
Oct. avg. Allen +3.5%
Sept avg. Allen +2.81%

MasonDixon 10/19
Webb(D)43%-Allen(R)*47%
Zogby/WSJ Battleground 10/16
Webb(D)47%-Allen(R)*50%
Rasmussen 10/12
Webb(D)46%-Allen(R)*49%
Washington Post 10/12
Webb(D)47%-Allen(R)*49%
Rasmussen 10/1
Webb(D)43%-Allen(R)*49%

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 3:24 PM | Report abuse

That sounds more like D morals. Except it is a girlfriend and it is hooked to a webcast and I advertise on teen websites. Hooray free speech and Dem values.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 24, 2006 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Hey, Zouk. Your wife's lookin for ya. Better crawl back under the bed next to her boyfriend.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 24, 2006 2:56 PM | Report abuse

Not looking good for you Dems. Steele is now even in a 2-to-1 Dem state. NJ is supposed to be a solid Dem state. Ford is now looking desperate in TN. Allen has never been down and is pulling ahead. Burns has drawn back close to even.

the problem was you all believed all those 'fake but accurate' polls and the media's intention of suppressing R votes may just backfire. you peaked too early and still have no ideas to motivate anyone. Bush is bad is not a way to win an election. Try again in two years. Maybe you'll get lucky and we'll lose this war or the market could tank. but that was what you wanted all along. then you can get hillary to discuss surrender terms and she can send Carter as her surrender envoy. you may have to pick among several nations to capitulate to if you get your way. but please explain that we always wanted to talk but the big bad Republicans wouldn't let you. Carter and clinton were always big on talking, followed by clueless understanding when the enemy didn't do as they promised. who would lie about weapons programs?

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 24, 2006 2:44 PM | Report abuse

hey just got this from Pelosi. exactly what we were tlaking about...

•Impose new rules and regulations to break the link between lobbyists and legislation
•Allow the government to negotiate with drug companies and fix Medicare Part D
•Stop Social Security and Medicare privatization plans in their tracks
•Raise the minimum wage to $7.25
•Cut the interest rates on student loans in half
•Roll back subsidies to Big Oil and gas companies
•Enact all the recommendations made by the independent 9/11 Commission

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 2:36 PM | Report abuse

I think that's the point. A representative democracy is not what we have anymore. What we have is a bunch of corrupt greedheads who go to DC for no reason other thank to line their own pockets. And the deregulation that R's are so fond of lets them do it legally.

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 2:33 PM | Report abuse

I will third the no earmark rule. Make everything come up for a vote is my view. I thought that was the point of a representative democracy.

Posted by: Andy R | October 24, 2006 2:27 PM | Report abuse

'dan w -- spending legislation with no earmarks' hallelujah to it. it really ought to be illegal.

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 2:22 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 2:08 PM | Report abuse


Thank you Rmill!

Dear Sandwich Repairman,
WWW.electoral-vote.com is very good, but I can say the same about:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

They are much better that the pro-republican Mr. Cillizza. You can also check for uncensored news the following sites:

www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info
www.onlinejournal.com
otherside123.blogspot.com

Posted by: che | October 24, 2006 1:38 PM | Report abuse

The other reader added the race on my list. Florida 8.

Posted by: Tallahassee | October 24, 2006 1:38 PM | Report abuse

One seat this is not on anyone's radar screen is the Florida 8th Congressional seat. This race is tightening up very quickly. Charlie Stuart, the Democrat in the race recently won the endorsement of several major Republican leaders in the community. The Republicans include Glenda Hood (former Orlando Mayor and Secretary of State under Jeb Bush) and Bill Fredrick (former Orlando Mayor). Stuart comes from a deep political family. His brother Jacob is the CEO of the Orlando Chamber of Commerce, his younger brother is on the City Commission and his oldest brother served in the Florida Senate. Congressman Keller is feeling the heat. His polarizing ads on immigration are hurting his campaign. This Congressional seat has a very large hispanic population that has swung races in the past. This is a race that should be on political radar screens. The Democrats have a strong ground game going in this race.

Posted by: Magic Man | October 24, 2006 1:35 PM | Report abuse

I have FL-13, FL-16 and FL-22 on the list. What is the fourth seat in Florida you are talking about?

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 1:26 PM | Report abuse

Oh, come on! http://www.electoral-vote.com is updated daily and today shows a 50-50 Senate and 229 Democrats in the House, to 205 Republicans and 1 tie. I think that's a better indication of where things stand. (And easier to check every day too)

Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 24, 2006 1:26 PM | Report abuse

No independent polling is available for FL-15. This race is ranked as Safe R by all major sources.

This is an Atlantic coast district (the so-called Space Coast) with Brevard, Osceola and Indian Hill counties, from Cocoa to Kissimee to Vero Beach.

Weldon is a former Army physician and a NY transplant who has held the seat since 1994.

Weldon won the seat in 2004 65%-35%

Cash on hand- Sept 30
Bowman (D) $22 K
Weldon (R)* $673 K

Bowman is an aerospace and nuclear engineer and a retired Lt. Col. and Air Force combat veteran. His credibility has been called into question due to some ties with conspriacy theorists regarding 9/11.

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 1:24 PM | Report abuse

When looking at this year's Congressional races, little has been said about the fact that the vast majority of these seats were drawn to favor Repbulicans by Republican legislatures. This is the most remarkable statistic of the 2006 races. No Republican seat should be in play. The fact that four seats in Florida, all held by Republicans, could flip to the Democratic side should be recognized as a tsunami in political terms. This is a fact that few political observers are reporting.

Posted by: Tallahassee | October 24, 2006 1:23 PM | Report abuse


THE BIX 2006 FIX!!!!!
THERE GOES OUR DEMOCRACY!!!

For uncensored news please bookmark:

otherside123.blogspot.com
www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info
www.onlinejournal.com
www.counterpuch.org

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061024/pl_nm/usa_politics_voting_dc_3

Potential problems loom in election voting

By Randall Mikkelsen 2 hours, 19 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Long lines and long counts threaten to mar next month's U.S. congressional elections as millions of Americans put new voting machines and rules to the test, election officials and experts say.
ADVERTISEMENT

The result could be delays in knowing whether Democrats capture one or both houses of the U.S. Congress, or whether
President George W. Bush's Republicans keep control.

"In close elections, it may be days and weeks before a winner is known in a particular race," said Paul DeGregorio, chairman of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, created to oversee a 2002 election law overhaul.

He forecast, however, an improvement over previous elections and said, "I think voters can trust the system."

The election overhaul was passed after the 2000 vote, in which problems deciphering paper ballots in Florida helped fuel a five-week recount fight in which the
U.S. Supreme Court handed the presidency to Bush.

The law mandated electronic voting machines with a "paper trail" backup, statewide voter registries and opportunities to cast a "provisional" ballot when a voter's eligibility is in question.

Many of the changes take effect this year, when one-third of voters will cast their ballots on new electronic machines, whose reliability in a national election is unproven.

Ohio, where Democratic voters in 2004 complained that long lines in their neighborhoods kept them from voting, and Pennsylvania are two states with major races where the voting process will be closely watched on November 7.

Other states include Maryland, which had problems with its September primary election, and Georgia and Missouri, where courts threw out new voter identification requirements and experts see a potential for disputes.

"We don't know about the security flaws, we don't know about the error rates," said the Rev. DeForest Soaries, former chairman of the Election Assistance Commission.

172 MILLION AMERICANS

About 172 million Americans are so far registered to vote; 175 million registered for the 2004 presidential election, according to the Election Data Services consulting firm. A smaller share will cast ballots, in 183,000 voting precincts.

In some states there may be confusion after court battles over new state identification requirements. Voters whose eligibility is in dispute can cast provisional ballots, which could add to counting delays in close races.

Election officials also expect more absentee ballots, which take longer to count, cast by voters distrustful of the new machines. In Maryland, for example, the state's Republican governor has encouraged absentee ballots.

There is also a shortage of trained poll workers.

"There's a rather combustible confluence of events taking place in our elections right now," said Century Foundation researcher Tova Wang.

"Where we may find ourselves at the end of Election Day is actually with stacks of paper and long, drawn-out, possibly contentious vote counting," she said. Any delays could spur concerns over the legitimacy of the outcome, she added.

The largest U.S. civil rights group, the
National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, said it would monitor voting in 10 states.

In a predominantly black neighborhood of Columbus, Ohio, Democrats have pushed hard to ensure people like Melvin Steward, 72, can vote. Steward said he stood in the rain for four hours in 2004 trying to vote but eventually gave up.

"In my district they shorted us on voting booths. It bothered me because I never missed voting before," Steward said. This time he applied for an absentee ballot.

"I've already turned my papers in," he said.

(Additional reporting by Andrea Hopkins in Ohio)


Posted by: che | October 24, 2006 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Drindl: We can only hope that they pass a spending legislation with no earmarks. Imagine how much money would be saved if earmarks were removed from ALL legislation. And perhaps deemed illegal...

Posted by: Dan W | October 24, 2006 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone know who is winning at the FL 15?

Thank you in advance.

Che

Posted by: che | October 24, 2006 12:38 PM | Report abuse

I know but I wanted to make sure they were included to show there are Dem seats that are endangered. I also did not include what I consider the most likely chance for a Dem incumbent to lose, which is LA 2 Jefferson.

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 12:31 PM | Report abuse

RMill,

Since, as you state IL-8 and IN-7 are already held by Democrats, they can't really be counted as pick-ups.

Posted by: Chris | October 24, 2006 12:24 PM | Report abuse

FYI

I had to look it up.

op·pro·bri·um (-prbr-m) KEY

NOUN:

Disgrace arising from exceedingly shameful conduct; ignominy. Scornful reproach or contempt: a term of opprobrium. A cause of shame or disgrace.

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 12:23 PM | Report abuse

All the other polls espect big gaines for the Democrats, except you, SHAME ON YOU!!!

Why dont you go work at the Washington Times?

For uncensored poll please bookmark:

www.electoral-vote.com

www.rasmussenreports.com

For uncensored news please bookmark:

www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info
www.onlinejournal.com
www.counterpuch.org
otherside123.blogspot.com

Posted by: che | October 24, 2006 12:20 PM | Report abuse

RI
Oct. avg. D+6.29

Last polls:
Mason Dixon 10/21 (for MSNBC)Whitehouse(D)48%-Chafee(R)*43%
Rasmussen 10/19
Whitehouse(D)52%-Chafee(R)*44%
Fleming 10/14
Whitehouse(D)46%-Chafee(R)*42%
Rhode Island College 10/4
Whitehouse(D)40%-Chafee(R)*37%

Chafee has not led in a single published independent poll since the primary and even before that, speculative match ups between possible candidates before the primary have shown Whitehouse leading Chafee since July.

While some have been closer than others, there has been no "back and forth".

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 12:16 PM | Report abuse

'Does it matter if that politician is from an iterracial marriage or not. No, he is still a racist smuck.'

yes, andy, that's true. but he is also a hypocrite and doesn't really beleive in what he's telling voters he beleives in. they may be racist or homophobic shmucks, too-- but at least they would understand that they are being gamed.

that's the message -- that these republicans who spout about 'traditions' don't give a rat's a** about them.

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Well said, Mike B. This very pro-American Brit has been following US political affairs for nearly 50 years, and no administration has been so widely and fairly reviled for its double-dealing, ignorance and incompetence as this one.
LBJ was unpopular because of Vietnam and Nixon for being Nixon, but GWB has set some new mark for opprobrium.
Fortunately, his Presidency may be effectively over on November 7.

Posted by: Colin | October 24, 2006 12:12 PM | Report abuse

Couple of things:

35 seats is too few.

What is the definition of leaning?

Likely D pick ups (polling of +8% or more)
AZ 8, IN 8, NY 19, NY 24, NC 11, OH 15, OH 18, PA 10, TX 22

Leans D pick ups (4-7% points)
AZ 1, FL 16, IN 2, IN 9, IL 8*, NM 1, NY 26, NC 8, PA 6, PA 7

Toss Ups (1-3% pts either way)
CA 50 (R+3), CO 7 (D+3), CT 2 (R+2.5), CT 4 (Even), FL 13 (D+3), IL 6 (D+0.33), IN 7* (D+1), IA 1 (R+1), IA 2 (R+1), KY 3 (D+0.5), KY 4 (R+2.6), MN 1 (R+1), MN 6 (D+1.75), NJ 7 (R+2), NY 3 (R+1), NY 20 (R+0.5), OH 2 (R+2.5), VA 2 (D+1), WA 8 (R+3), WI 8 (D+2)

*IL 8 and IN 7 are incumbant Dems.

Some are not even listed like AZ 1, NY 3, NY 19, NY 20 and NC 8.

Some are included as toss ups and yet poll worse than some races you have leaning D.

CO 7 is averaging D+3 while IN 2 is D+5.67. NY 19 is D+9 and NC 8 is D+7. KY 4 is listed as toss up at (R+2.6) while KY 3 you have leaning R and is only polling on avarage (R+0.5).

This is a very conservative listing IMO.

Posted by: RMill | October 24, 2006 12:07 PM | Report abuse

Chris, why are you omitting the Ohio congressional election in the Ohio 2 District? The incumbent is Republican Jean Schmidt. The challenger is Victoria Wulsin. The two polls that I have seen show that Wulsin is either tied or slightly ahead. I conclude that the Republicans are in serious danger of losing this seat too.

Posted by: Steve I | October 24, 2006 12:04 PM | Report abuse

But drindl, why does it matter if they are closeted gays or not? Being a homophobic bigot is bad enough. Now I agree that the GOP stance on GLT issues is tremendously unfair and borderline criminal, but that opinion has nothing to do with their being gays in the party or not.

For example, lets say that a politician came out and said "I don't beleive that interracial marriages should be legal". Does it matter if that politician is from an iterracial marriage or not. No, he is still a racist smuck.

Posted by: Andy R | October 24, 2006 12:01 PM | Report abuse

Andy R -- Perhaps it is 'poor form' to point out the hypocrisy, but I have had gay friends for 30 years, who have been harrassed, intimidated, beaten, deprived of the most basic human rights -- the right to love and live with whom you choose. All this derives from a culture of homophobia which the republican party avidly fuels.

The closeted gays in the party have the money to do what they want. But for those who don't, if can mean having no health insurance or other benefits, losing custody of your children, not being able to visit a dying partner in the hospital, all sorts of things we heteros take for granted.

So I think pointing out the hypocrisy is a service, frankly.

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Have to disagree with LSterling a bit. In today's MSNBC/McClatchy Poll on Rhode Island, Whitehouse has a five point lead over Chaffee with a four point Margin of Error.

"Leans Whitehouse" is reasonable.

[Carcieri has a 10 point lead over Fogarty (same MOE)]

Linc has become essentially a one-note candidate, "Why didn't you (Whitehouse) prosecute corrupt officials?"

Neither the Senate nor the Governor race is out of the attention of the voting public for very long. Lots of ads and lots of debates.

Posted by: Nor'Easter | October 24, 2006 11:46 AM | Report abuse

I just wanted to say that it would be nice if everyone quit talking about who is gay and who is not gay in the Republican party. It makes NO DIFFERENCE what anyone's sexual orientation is when it comes to their ability to govern. Also it makes those who bring it up sound in my humble opinion like ignorant homophobes, which I know most of you are not. I understand that you want to point out the hypocrisy of it all, but it is poor form in my eyes.

Also CC, really like the new feature but I hope it won't take the place of our biweekly lines. I look forward to Tuesday and friday partly so I can check out the movement.

Posted by: Andy R | October 24, 2006 11:35 AM | Report abuse

Remarkable that we could have political earthquake nationwide yet Connecticut appears likely to retain Lieberman.

http://intrepidliberaljournal.blogspot.com

Posted by: Intrepid Liberal Journal | October 24, 2006 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Gettin' tired of Administrations taking the American Public for total idiots.

Stay The Course no longer means Staying The course; but it does mean Staying The Course.

President Bush's Reading Level: My Pet Goat

Comprehension Level: Alice in Wonderland

Posted by: Nor'Easter | October 24, 2006 11:31 AM | Report abuse

The R.I. Senate race is not leaning towards Whitehouse.....or Chaffee...., it is a true tossup, with "un-scientific" straw polls and phone surveys swinging in both directions. This race has been driven off the front burner at times, by the Narragansett Indian/Harrahs gambling complex attempt to change the R.I. Constitution and allow an Indian gaming casino in a local suburb. This, and the general "mad as hell" at the Repub mishandling of everything, has made the race just one of many stories in the dailies. Chaffee, to the surprise of the Dems, hasn't been tarred with the Bushy brush, and has maintained a credible neck and neck with a sputtering Sheldon Whitehouse. This will go down to the last weekend before the election, with many undecided voters, going to the polls with a coin to flip.

Posted by: L. Sterling | October 24, 2006 11:29 AM | Report abuse

"Several governments around the world have tried to rebut criticism of how they handle detainees by claiming they are only following the U.S. example in the war on terror, the U.N. anti-torture chief said Monday.

"Manfred Nowak, the U.N. special investigator on torture, said that when he criticizes governments for their questionable treatment of detainees, they respond by telling him that if the United States does something, it must be all right. He would not name any countries except for Jordan.'

The shining city on the hill, an example for all.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 24, 2006 11:23 AM | Report abuse

You know, Nor'easter, that would make just about as much sense as the one they're building here...

You know with all this stuff about foley, I'm beginning to wonder not who is gay in the r epublican party, but who is NOT?

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 11:20 AM | Report abuse

Does this mean the Administration supports illegal immigrants for Iraq?

Or, is this the first step in Boeing getting a No Bid contract to build a fence around Iraq to keep illegals out?

Posted by: Nor'Easter | October 24, 2006 11:18 AM | Report abuse

--Workers being smuggled into Baghdad to build nearly $600 million dollar embassy--which I'm sure will be promptly bombed to smitereens.

'Employed by First Kuwaiti Trading & Contracting, the lead builder for the new $592-million US embassy in Baghdad, Owen remembers being surrounded at the airport by about 50 company laborers freshly hired from the Philippines and India. Everyone was holding boarding passes to Dubai -- not to Baghdad.

"I thought there was some sort of mix up and I was getting on the wrong plane," says the 48-year-old Floridian who was working as a general construction foreman on the embassy project.

The secrecy struck Owen as a little odd, but he grabbed his luggage and moved on. Everyone filed out to the private jet and flew directly to Baghdad. "I figured that they had visas for Kuwait and not Iraq," Owen offers.

The deception had all the appearances of smuggling workers into Iraq, but Owen didn't know at the time that the Philippines, India, and other countries had banned or restricted their citizens from working in Iraq because of safety concerns and growing opposition to the war. After 2004, many passports were stamped "Not valid for Iraq."

Posted by: Anonymous | October 24, 2006 11:12 AM | Report abuse

I don't know about you all, but I am going home tonight and literally praying for a Democratic sweep. The Republican Party is so awful, so crooked, so unpatriotic and unAmercian, is populated by such lothesome clods, that I think they will destroy us all. So, pray for their defeat, pray that George Bush is punished for the evil and harm he has brought to this country and the world, and pray that that fat twit, Karl Rove, is caught and outted by every mahjor media outlet in the country before election day, so he can do no more harm. God Bless America!

Posted by: MikeB | October 24, 2006 11:10 AM | Report abuse

Like the new features, Chris!

--MORE investigations of this utterly corrupt congress:

Specter Mulls Labor-HHS Without Earmarks
"Facing an FBI investigation of his top staff and scrutiny of his own financial records, Sen. Arlen Specter [R-PA] said he currently is weighing 'the pros and cons' of whether to eliminate earmarks entirely from the annual Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and related agencies spending measure.

"Specter, whose staffers are being investigated for allegedly improperly securing earmarks for businesses owned by their family members, currently chairs the Appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over the bill. He said in a recent interview that he plans to talk to his fellow Senators about the idea of ridding the measure of targeted spending provisions but has yet to reach a final determination." (Roll Call)

Turmoil in Hastert's Office as Key Staff Testifies
"The investigation of how the Republican leadership handled the issue has provoked turmoil and finger-pointing in [House Speaker Dennis] Hastert's [R-IL] office, congressional sources say.

"Some of Hastert's principal aides have hired criminal defense lawyers to represent them during the investigation. Ted Van Der Meid, Hastert's chief in-house counsel, has retained Washington, D.C.-based attorney Lee Blalack, who also represents convicted former Congressman Duke Cunningham." (The Blotter)

http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/001860.php

Posted by: drindl | October 24, 2006 11:08 AM | Report abuse

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