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Fix Poll: How high will House retirements go?

New York Rep. Eric Massa's (D) decision to retire at the end of the year makes him the 34th member to announce plans to leave the House in the 111th Congress.

Retirements in advance of the 2010 midterms seem likely to eclipse recent records. In the 2008 cycle, there were 35 total retirements (29 of them Republicans) while 33 Members called it quits in 2006 and 34 left in 2004.

The question that no one knows the answer to is whether retirements will rise to 1994/1996 levels (48 and 49, respectively) or soar all the way up to the 65 Members who left in 1992.

There's little question that the volatility of the political atmosphere and the strong anti-incumbent sentiment in the country is leading to a rash of retirements. The higher the number goes, the more likely it is to negatively impact Democrats simply because they a) have more members to lose and b) have had remarkably few retirements over the past several cycles.

How many retirements will we ultimately see in the 2010 election cycle? Cast your vote below.

By Chris Cillizza  |  March 3, 2010; 4:51 PM ET
Categories:  House  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) won't run for reelection
Next: House Democrats approach danger zone with retirements

Comments

BIG Question... Is Barry really the Lead TURD in the Progressive Cesspool or just another " floater"?????

Posted by: redhawk2 | March 4, 2010 10:59 AM | Report abuse

I am betting that 40-45 more RATS are about to abandon the Garbage Skow that is piloteed by Pelosi and Obama with Steny in tow.... AHH for that Carter Days ... with 16% mortgages and hifgh Inflation at least CD's were getting 12% interests...
Go 'Bama keep on slidinmg!!!

Posted by: redhawk2 | March 4, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

This is the "OH BROTHER WEEK" for the democrats.

First Obama gives a Federal Appeals Judgeship to Rep Matheson of Utah's brother.

THEN Nancy Pelosi gives the Chairmanship of Ways and Means to SENATOR CARL LEVIN'S BROTHER, SANDER LEVIN.


YES, - Carl Levin has a brother named SANDER LEVIN


AND he is NOW CHAIRMAN OF WAYS AND MEANS.


You can't make this stuff up.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 4, 2010 10:34 AM | Report abuse

Sander Levin is the new Chairman of Ways and Means


Way to pick someone that we all have heard of

Is the democratic bench this shallow and weak?


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 4, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

OBAMA IS OFFICIALLY A PART OF THE CESSPOOL !!!


Obama names Scott M. Matheson, Jr. of Utah to a Judgeship - and Obama is trying to get his brother's vote for health care.


Add this to the deal for Louisiana


Add this to the deal for Medicare payments for Florida.


Add this to the deal for Nebraska

Obama is officially now the leading part of moral filth and immorality in Washington


We have NO CHANGE, EXCEPT WASHINGTON HAS GOTTEN WORSE.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 4, 2010 8:33 AM | Report abuse

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Posted by: nikejordans1 | March 4, 2010 6:49 AM | Report abuse

12 Bar, you have stated that fact in the clearest way possible. 37th is a cheerleader. If you respond to him, he wil merely shout "Lean to the right, lean to the right, stand up, sit down,

fight

fight


FIGHT!"


a little louder


.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | March 4, 2010 6:43 AM | Report abuse

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2010/03/03/GR2010030303403.html?hpid=topnews

I found a good graphic of the reconciliation process. It's sort of misleading. Step 1 is not part of the process. It's an alternate route (House just passes the Senate bill as is without any changes for reconciliation.)

Posted by: DDAWD | March 4, 2010 2:31 AM | Report abuse

Well, it's debatable as to whether the House has the votes. Their leadership says they do, so I'm believing it. They understand that the anger at Washington is not about what they are trying to accomplish, but the fact that they haven't accomplished it. That is why Republicans are doing all they can to prevent the bill from passing. Right now the Republicans have a chance to allow this to pass without getting their fingerprints on it. If this is such political poison, why not let the Dems hang themselves? It's because they know that once the bill passes, they are going to have a much tougher time in winning those contested seats.

But that's all arguable. What's NOT arguable is that the 2000 page Senate bill passed with a 60 vote supermajority. What's not arguable is that this bill is NOT being passed through reconciliation. What's NOT arguable is that what will be passed through reconciliation is just a sliver of a sidecar bill.

Also, what's NOT arguable is that the Republicans have used reconciliation many times during their 12 years in power, including the massive tax cuts during the Bush administration which created far more debt than this health care bill will create. The Democrats' use of reconciliation is not unprecedented. In terms of frequency, the Republicans' use of the filibuster is.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 4, 2010 12:32 AM | Report abuse

Honestly, it's strange to watch DDAWD and 37th. DDAWD says "this is possible if the House has the votes". 37th says "this is the last straw". DDAWD says "Democrats say they have the votes. Maybe they do." 37th says "they don't have the votes. They won't vote for it. This is the end."

You two are living in different universes. 37th seemingly knows how everyone is thinking and even what they will do.

So, really, since 37th is so sure he knows the past, present and future, as well as everyone's intentions, how can anyone argue with him?

The answer: you can't.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 4, 2010 12:23 AM | Report abuse

The House moderates should ask Nancy Pelosi to bring up the health care bill just so they can VOTE AGAINST IT.


How else are they going to save their seats???

The public would love it - the moderates can run commercials saying they stood up to Obama and his efforts to jam the unpopular bill down their throats.

Obama has got to be kidding.

This Utah judgeship might be the final straw - the final sleazy act by this Rangel-loving administration.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 4, 2010 12:14 AM | Report abuse

negotiation is NOW impossible, not "not impossible"

Posted by: DDAWD | March 4, 2010 12:12 AM | Report abuse

Well, I'm not the one saying that the House has the votes. I always knew the Dems could take this route ever since Brown was elected. I actually assumed HCR was dead since the House wouldn't pass the Senate bill. But they're the ones who are saying they have the votes, not me. And who knows? The Stupak group might have been insistent on the abortion stuff when it was possible to be insistent on it. But since the Republicans have taken away their negotiation power, they know that they either pass the Senate bill with the Obama sidecar or nothing passes. While they probably want the abortion language, it's more important to get a HCR bill passed without abortion restrictions instead of passing nothing at all.

But who knows, perhaps the House leadership is lying or is miscalculating and they really don't have the votes.

I wonder how Joseph Cao is going to vote on this. He seemed really wishy-washy about the whole thing except for abortion. He was really adamant about that. I wonder if he will support the bill even without the abortion language since negotiation is not impossible.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 4, 2010 12:10 AM | Report abuse

DDAWD

Good luck with that - just because Obama draws up 11 pages that doesn't mean it will satisfy the House members who have seen their entire bill - and all their negotiating power go out the window.

You have to understand - the House members were anticipating that they would be negotiating out the differences with the Senate bill -

This whole thing is a mess - The Stupak Amendment is going to be really difficult to overcome - it was stupid not to inclde it in the Senate bill -

The union taxes in the Senate bill are an issue too.

The moderate democrats in the House know that their elections are dependent on this mess - and they would love the opportunity to vote AGAINST the health care bill - that might be their only chance at survival.

Right now, Nancy is looking at the people who have decided to retire and who voted against the bill - to see if she can get them.


Then she is looking at a group which is "beyond coming back" - their electorial prospects are so bad, they are going to lose anyway, so Nancy wants to see if she can get them.

The votes really aren't there.

If Obama is going to start "selling judgeships" like he just appeared to do in Utah, Obama is not going to get far.


First the Nebraska deal, then Florida, then Louisiana, then Utah ????

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 4, 2010 12:01 AM | Report abuse

Give Frenchman St. a try. It's filled with all sorts of music clubs. Bourbon St. is the one that the tourists hear of, but Bourbon is really nothing special. Just a bunch of strip joints and regular dance clubs like you'll find in any city. Frenchman is the place to go if you want a place where you can just go from music club to music club. And it won't just be jazz either. You can find djs, rock bands, latin bands.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 11:37 PM
--------------------------------
Frenchman St.--that's the place. 37th finally gets his way -- I'm going on a PUB CRAWL.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 11:43 PM | Report abuse

"I hear you. Don't wait for Mardi Gras. I've been there twice, once for MG and another time. I loved it both times. I need to make a trip that focuses on the music.

Posted by: 12BarBlues"

Give Frenchman St. a try. It's filled with all sorts of music clubs. Bourbon St. is the one that the tourists hear of, but Bourbon is really nothing special. Just a bunch of strip joints and regular dance clubs like you'll find in any city. Frenchman is the place to go if you want a place where you can just go from music club to music club. And it won't just be jazz either. You can find djs, rock bands, latin bands.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Hint:

full of

Posted by: shrink2 | March 3, 2010 11:32 PM
-------------------------------------
Duh...I feel so dumb. Bwahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 11:35 PM | Report abuse

@DDAWD,

I hear you. Don't wait for Mardi Gras. I've been there twice, once for MG and another time. I loved it both times. I need to make a trip that focuses on the music.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 11:32 PM | Report abuse

Hint:

full of

Posted by: shrink2 | March 3, 2010 11:32 PM | Report abuse

@shrink,

Now I'm obsessed with figuring out FOS. It's going to be funny, I know. FOB means fresh off boat (useful in spotting illegal stowaways). But, FOS...hm

One of my first professional projects was on a fraud audit. I LOVED it much to my embarrassment.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 11:29 PM | Report abuse

There's plenty to do here even when there isn't Mardi Gras. Actually, I find it easier to take friends around when there aren't a bunch of parades blocking up the streets. Don't get me wrong, Mardi Gras is fun, but it's always fun here. Even Chris C was here two years ago for Jazz Fest. And the SRLC is actually taking place during the French Quarter Fest. And it's not like all the jazz clubs and bars and restaurants aren't open outside of special events. There's ALWAYS a ton to do.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 11:16 PM | Report abuse

"This is SO up my alley. I was born to be a secret patient."

Well here is the funny thing. Most people who are severely ill would rather set their hair on fire than see a doctor, even while the people who are FOS (top secret medical terminology) are lined up, angrily waiting to be served, armed with a bag of pill bottles ("nothing works!") and disability/leave forms.

Secret patient, like that would be a novelty.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 3, 2010 11:16 PM | Report abuse

"1) None of the 11 pages (if that is what it is) can be policy - it has to be all budget."

It is. And that's why House members can't negotiate for an equivalent to Stupak, since it's not budgetary. It's basically a sidecar to the huge bill that already passed the Senate.

The part that's undergoing reconciliation is really, really tiny. In terms of pages, it's half a percent of the major bill. Nothing is being shoved through anything. 60 members of the Senate voted for the bill. Sixty people. That's a huge majority spanning ideologies from Boxer to Bayh.

The 11 pages might actually make Republicans happier. The Louisiana and Nebraska deals have been stripped and there are the undercover patients.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 11:11 PM | Report abuse

I would still like to see how the Stupak 40 - who voted for the health care bill the first time in the House - end up agreeing to the Senate bill which does not contain the abortion provisions.

The reconciliation process has already been rejected for abortion.

The House and the Senate democrats are going to have a difficult time coming together on this - we will see. Why would the moderates in the House want to sacrifice their seats to help Obama get this ill-advised bill through?

What part of this does not make sense?

Anyway - it will end up repealed - and this whole thing is for nothing - so any sacrifices made are a complete waste.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 11:04 PM | Report abuse

My main instrument is the guitar, but I did play piano for a while as well.

And I'm in New Orleans, so I know a decent amount about jazz.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:54 PM
-----------------------
I'm so jealous. You NEED to host ALL of us for Mardi Gras. Joking partially.

I play piano and dabble at banjo (isn't that freaky?). I'll bet there are other musicians on here. Who are you--yoohoo!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 10:57 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD


I thought they said you were a woman with one tooth - is that true ?


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 10:57 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


Your name sounds like a pubcrawl gone bad.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 10:55 PM | Report abuse

My main instrument is the guitar, but I did play piano for a while as well.

And I'm in New Orleans, so I know a decent amount about jazz.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:54 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD


1) None of the 11 pages (if that is what it is) can be policy - it has to be all budget.

2) Obama should start thinking about next year - if the Republicans take control of the House, Obama has to work with them one way or the other - and if they jam this through, the atmosphere will be ugly.

The Republicans if they control the House will REFUSE to fund the health care bill - and it can be halted.

THIS WILL NOT END WITH THESE VOTES - MAKE NO MISTAKE.

AND the Republicans will look for any excuse to IMPEACH OBAMA - which is what he deserves at this point for attempting to subvert the democratic process.


This jamming action will not end pretty next year.

Obama should think a few moves ahead.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, it does seem like fun. I wonder if you get to wear a wire. You get the excitement of being a double agent, but none of the repercussions of being caught.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:48 PM
-------------------------------
This is SO up my alley. I was born to be a secret patient.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 10:51 PM | Report abuse

Darn, DDAWD, you broke my cover. What do you play?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 10:49 PM | Report abuse

"I want a job as a undercover patient. It'll be the first doctor visit in years. I'm more than half serious.

Posted by: 12BarBlues"

Yeah, it does seem like fun. I wonder if you get to wear a wire. You get the excitement of being a double agent, but none of the repercussions of being caught.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:48 PM | Report abuse

12 bar blues is a standard chord progression in jazz blues.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:45 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


Is your name all about a pubcrawl ?

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 10:41 PM | Report abuse

But hey, at least they get their undercover patients.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:26 PM
-------------------------------
I want a job as a undercover patient. It'll be the first doctor visit in years. I'm more than half serious.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 10:33 PM | Report abuse

Good point. The Bush tax cuts were passed through reconciliation - w/o bipartisan support. They were jammed down the throats of Americans. As a result, Dems let them expire.

And this reconciliation is much smaller. Only 11 pages. That's it. The rest of the bill already passed the supermajority vote of the Senate. I'm not sure if the Republicans are arguing that 60 votes is insufficient. And if you say that each Senator represents half his state's constituency, then the 40 Republicans represent only 35% of the nation.

60 Senators representing 65% of the nation passed this thing. I'm not sure how much more overwhelmingly anything should be expected to pass.

So here's the count.
2000 pages - passed with a 60 vote supermajority
11 pages - up for reconciliation.

It's that simple.

And if Republicans lose things like Stupak, they only have themselves to blame. If they were open to compromise and negotiation, then there would be compromise and negotiation.

But hey, at least they get their undercover patients.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 3, 2010 10:26 PM | Report abuse

Just to keep everyone up to date on what passes for militia activity in California.

Starbucks has decided that the guns-on-their-thighs "open carry" folks can come into Starbucks, sit at the little tables, and have their lattes and muffins. Apparently, the gunmen have been educating the customers on the merits of carrying weapons. Some of the education has been conducted at loud volumes. Customers have complained.

[Irony alert]
Starbucks reason: they don't want to ask their employees to confront a gunman and thereby potentially putting the employee at risk. WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's what the customers have been saying.

The open carry types have been gracing local restaurants, parks and now Starbucks with their holstered guns (unloaded we hope).

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 3, 2010 10:19 PM | Report abuse

dognabbit


There is an organized group of people who have been harassing other posters on this site for at least two years.

Are these the people you are talking about?


Some of these people, like broadwayjoe, have been posting under two or more names.

Now, some of them have left, in an attempt to get their own way - or rather - to SILENCE PEOPLE THEY DO NOT AGREE WITH.

Well, that is unAmerican - it is against Freedom of Speech. -


And if the White House, or the DNC or OFA has anything to do with this group - I believe that those actions would be highly improper and against proper conduct.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 9:54 PM | Report abuse

The question is: How many moderates and liberals have retired from posting on The Fix?

There's clearly a conservative majority at this site!

Posted by: dognabbit | March 3, 2010 9:26 PM

It's a precursor of what's coming in November for congress.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 3, 2010 9:43 PM | Report abuse

The question is: How many moderates and liberals have retired from posting on The Fix?

There's clearly a conservative majority at this site!

Posted by: dognabbit | March 3, 2010 9:26 PM | Report abuse

If Obama gets this bill through, it will be repealed.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 8:57 PM | Report abuse


We are talking about the reconciliation bill - and whether it will include improper items or not.


First of all, no one in the Senate or the House intended for this version of the Senate bill to become the law - it was intended that there would be further negotiations and compromises.


The Stupak Amendment is a case in point - why the Senate never included that compromise represents bad faith on the part of the parties - they never intended to have that compromise stay in the final version.


To say that we have a mish-mash is an understatement - we have a bill which the Senate passed on a holiday, was rushed in, and which everyone at the time thought was going to be changed SIGNIFICANTLY through further negotiations with the House.


The Senate has a certain set of rules, which have been passed legally - in accordance with the Constitution.


If those rules are purposely subverted - if the intention of the those rules are intentionally bypassed - then that is a violation of those rules.


The remedy for such an offense is IMPEACHMENT.


Right now - Obama is seeking a way to get around the obvious intent of the rules of the Senate.


Specifically, he and his friends are trying to pass POLICY - which is not BUDGET items - into law under the reconciliation procedures.


Sorry if you don't like it.


In 8 months there will be another election - if the Republicans take control of the House, you can be sure that these issues will be taken up - in addition to the funding of this bill.


BY NO MEANS will this be the last time Congress looks at this law - it can be repealed - and either House can refuse to fund it under the budget process.


The whole idea that it will be jammed through, never to be undone - well maybe that idea came about because major programs had BIPARTISAN SUPPORT, SO WHEN PARTIES CHANGED, THE PROGRAMS STAYED.


That is clearly not the case here.


What part of this do you NOT understand ???

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Rats are abandoning a sinking ship!

Posted by: Jimbo77 | March 3, 2010 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Democrats should take note of Mazza's situation. It's probably better to get involved in a sex scandal and quit rather than face the voters for re-election in November and get humiliated. Could be the easy way out for many dems.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 3, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

Mazza may be involved in an affair with a male staffer, but we should offer some understanding. After all, every congressman want to bring home the pork. Mazza just has a different interpretation of what that means.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 3, 2010 7:18 PM | Report abuse

Mazza may be involved in an affair with a male staffer, but we should offer some understanding. After all, every congressman want to bring home the pork. Mazza just has a different interpretation of what that means.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 3, 2010 7:18 PM | Report abuse

Mr Cillizza writes, "New York Rep. Eric Massa's (D) decision to retire at the end of the year ..."

Mazza has been in office for a little over a year. How can anyone "retire" after just one year at doing anything? Call a spade a spade. He's another quitter.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | March 3, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

Apparently the White House is upset about this posting - maybe because it's true:

We have a 3 Trillion Dollar - basically unfunded program - which the democrats are attempting to FORCE A FINANCIAL CRISIS ONTO A FUTURE CONGRESS IN ORDER TO RAISE THE TAXES TO PAY FOR HEALTH CARE.


When the American People realize fully what the finances are, Obama's name and legacy will be synonymous with overspending and financial nightmares.


To spend and never know how it will be payed for - to obama.


To get stuck with a bill (like at a restaurant) - to get obamaed.


To try to get a friend to pay his share of the bill at a restaurant - Man, you are not going to obama me, are you ?


To force a program or a rule on an unwilling person - to ram an obama.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 6:40 PM | Report abuse

Obama and the democrats are getting dangerously close to breaking the Senate rules - which will create a crisis like none other in American history.

What makes it even worse, is recorded statements by Obama and Biden on the exact subjects in 2005.

We may be in the territory of breaking the laws - the Constitution says the Senate makes its own rules - if there is an effort to break those rules - it is unConstitutional - and may qualify as High Crimes and Misdemeeanors.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 6:17 PM | Report abuse

Pelosi says she will drain the swamp.

I guess that depends on your definition of the swamp.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

The way the democrats stuck with Charlie Rangel proves they are unfit to govern. If they can not push out this guy when it has been obvious for years, the democrats should not be in power.


Case closed.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 5:57 PM | Report abuse

We have a 3 Trillion Dollar - basically unfunded program - which the democrats are attempting to FORCE A FINANCIAL CRISIS ONTO A FUTURE CONGRESS IN ORDER TO RAISE THE TAXES TO PAY FOR HEALTH CARE.


When the American People realize fully what the finances are, Obama's name and legacy will be synonymous with overspending and financial nightmares.


To spend and never know how it will be payed for - to obama.


To get stuck with a bill (like at a restaurant) - to get obamaed.


To try to get a friend to pay his share of the bill at a restaurant - Man, you are not going to obama me, are you ?


To force a program or a rule on an unwilling person - to ram an obama.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 5:27 PM | Report abuse

Almost everything Clinton did turned out to be a disaster


Clinton's trade deals have made a mess of our economy


Clinton repealed the Wall Street financial regulations - which led to the bubbles - which led to today's mess -


To blame Bush for any of that is just not correct.


In the Middle East, Clinton had a horrible practically pacifist policy which led to 9/11.


We had the first world trade center bombing


Khobar Towers bombing


The two American embassies bombing in Keyna and Tanzania


They bombed our apartment buildings in Saudi Arabia.


The USS Cole.


THE POLICY YOU ARE ADVOCATING FAILED.


OK - it failed. you are a complete idiot.


The reason it failed, because you are a complete idiot - is because we never hit them hard enough in the 1990s and we ended up with 9/11.

Clinton WAS A COMPLETE DISASTER AS A PRESIDENT - he made a mess of everything.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 3, 2010 5:16 PM | Report abuse

"volatility of the political atmosphere"

excellent metaphor, like gasoline vapor in hot air

got a match?


Posted by: shrink2 | March 3, 2010 5:08 PM | Report abuse

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