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Friday House Line: The Second 25!

Last week as we were putting together the Line of the 25 House districts most likely to switch parties on Nov. 4, we had a revelation: there were WAY more seats in play than we were writing about.

Friday Line

With neutral political handicappers now predicting Democrats will net at least 20 seats (and holding out the possibility the party's gains could be significantly higher than that) we decided to use this Friday's House Line to, how should we say, really explore the studio space.

Having covered the 25 top House races last week, we decided to look at those races that occupy slots 26 to 50 -- all of which, amazingly, have real potential to switch sides in 11 days time. (And, yes, we are doing 50 races. The Fix cannot be stopped!)

What's immediately apparent when examining the "second 25" is just how much trouble Republicans are in and how broad Democrats' gains could be. Of the 25 seats on this Line, one (ONE!) is held by a Democratic member of Congress (Rep. Nancy Boyda in Kansas). All told, in the 50 seats that make our Line, 42 are held by Republicans and just eight are held by Democrats. And, rest assured, there were several other Republican seats -- California's 3rd, Florida's 21st -- that could well have cracked the top 50.

Many of the seats that did make our top 50 would never be there in a neutral political year or if the Republican incumbents had paid adequate attention to their constituents and political positioning over the last few cycles. But, they didn't and here they are.

The Line is designed to foment discussion and debate. With that in mind, offer any thoughts you have about the overall state of play or any individual race below.

To the Line!

50. Virginia's 5th district (R): The last time any political junkie heard anything about Rep. Virgil Goode (R) was when he switched from the Democratic party earlier this decade. But, with Barack Obama and former Gov. Mark Warner (D) running extremely strong at the top of the ticket and Goode's opponent -- Democrat Tom Perriello -- raising well north of $1 million, this is a major problem for Republicans. Also, this story (particularly the headline) didn't help Goode's prospects.

49. Ohio's 2nd district (R): Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) is a problem for Republicans every election cycle despite this Cincinnati-area district strong GOP tendencies. The National Republican Congressional Committee is now on television attacking Victoria Wulsin (D), who ran against Schmidt two years ago.

48. South Carolina's 1st district (R): This race isn't on most peoples' radar screens but according to informed GOP sources it should be. Rep. Henry Brown (R) has held the Charleston-area seat since 2000 but seemed to be caught off-guard by businesswoman Linda Ketner (D) who has used a $700,000 personal donation to pummel Brown. The incumbent is (finally) fighting back. But it may be too late.

47. California's 4th district (R): When scandal-tarred Republican Rep. John Doolittle (R) retired earlier this year, it was supposed to take this GOP-leaning northern California seat off the table. Not so fast. Charlie Brown, who came within a whisker of beating Doolittle in 2006, has run as an outsider and gotten traction by attacking state Sen. Tom McClintock (R) as a career politician.

46. Arizona's 3rd district (R): Rep. John Shadegg (R) is considered an almost-certain candidate for John McCain's Senate seat if and when the Republican presidential nominee decides to vacate it. One little problem for Shadegg: he might be running for the Senate as a private citizen rather than a sitting member of Congress. Attorney Bob Lord raised $1.4 million for the race when no one was looking, and a Democratic poll taken earlier this month showed the race as a dead heat.

45. Missouri's 6th district (R): This race between Rep. Sam Graves (R) and former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes started out as a top-tier pickup chance for Democrats. No longer. While we have been critical of Graves' campaign decisions, they have worked and even Democrats now believe he will be re-elected.

44. Nebraska's 2nd district (R): Rep. Lee Terry (R) doesn't sit in a Republican-enough district that he can totally take his eye off the ball. So, it's not clear why he let Democrat Jim Esch creep into a tie with him with just two weeks left in the race. The National Republican Congressional Committee is up on television with an ad that clubs Esch over a past DUI charge that could stymie the Democrat's momentum. But Obama's decision to target this Omaha-based district is the x-factor and makes this race a toss up.

43. Kansas's 2nd district (D): This Topeka-based seat has been on and off our top 25 Line for months. Republicans got the better candidate when state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins won the party primary in August but in a political environment like this one she has struggled to make up ground on Boyda. Still, President George W. Bush did carry the seat by 20 points in 2004.

42. Virginia's 2nd district (R): If polls are believed, it is going to be a VERY bad year for Republicans in Virginia as Obama is positioned to win the state -- the first time a Democrat will carry the Commonwealth at the presidential level since 1964. How much of an impact does the top of the ticket have downballot? This district should provide some answers. It has clear conservative leanings (Bush won it with 58 percent in 2004) but it also has a significant (21 percent) black population. A recent Democratic poll showed Rep. Thelma Drake (R) in solid shape against Democrat Glenn Nye but if there is a major Obama surge, this is the kind of district that could feel the effect.

41. Kentucky's 2nd district (R): This sprawling central Kentucky seat was one of the 10 districts on the epic "Ohio River Ramble" in 2006. At the time, Democrats insisted they could beat Rep. Ron Lewis (R) -- a belief that turned out to be unfounded. (Lewis won with 55 percent of the vote.) But, Lewis' retirement created an open seat and national Democrats have poured money into this cheap seat, forcing Republicans to respond in kind. A recent Survey USA poll showed state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R) with a 51 percent to 42 percent lead over state Sen. David Boswell (D), however, suggesting that the Republican nature of the seat is asserting itself.

40. Missouri's 9th district (R): When Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) announced he was vacating this conservative northeastern Missouri seat, few political observers batted an eye. After all, President Bush has carried the district with 59 percent in 2004 and Hulshof had been easily re-elected since 1996. But, in an election like this one, no Republican open seat is safe and a recent Democratic poll suggests state Rep. Judy Baker (D) and former state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) are in a dead heat.

39. Idaho's 1st district (R): Idaho, which President Bush won by 38 points in 2004, should not be competitive at the House level. But Rep. Bill Sali (R) is not now (and has never been) a good candidate and 1996 Senate nominee Walt Minnick (D) is spending his own money freely. A Survey USA poll conducted for Roll Call showed Minnick leading Sali 51 percent to 45 percent and Sali with frighteningly bad approval/disapproval numbers (33 approve/47 disapprove). Can McCain's expected strong showing save Sali?

38. Ohio's 1st district (R): This urban Cincinnati district will be an intriguing bellwether of Obama's true coattails. Although Rep. Steve Chabot (R) has beaten back all comers since claiming the seat in 1994, the district's black population (27 percent) raises the possibility that a better-than-expected performance by the Illinois senator in the African American community could make Democratic state Rep. Steve Driehaus a surprise winner.

37. Alabama's 2nd district (R): Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) might well win this conservative minded southeastern Alabama seat but he has not followed the textbook national Democrats would have liked. Most glaring of Bright's shortcomings is his poor fundraising; in his most recent report he had $43,000 in the bank and debts of $74,000. Even so, Bright has bipartisan appeal (he got the endorsement of state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, a candidate on the GOP side) and is well known district-wide.

36. Florida's 25th district (R): For the first time in recent memory, national Democrats targeted all three Cuban Republicans in Florida, and of the trio Rep. Mario Diaz Balart appears to be the most in jeopardy. Joe Garcia, the chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party has steadily gained ground on the incumbent and a poll conducted for Garcia's campaign earlier this month showed Diaz-Balart with a narrow 45 percent to 42 percent edge. Garcia's chances seem tied directly to how well Obama can do in a district that Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) lost by 12 points in 2004.

35. Connecticut's 4th district (R): Rep. Chris Shays (R) is a survivor. He has weathered two serious challenges in the last two election cycles and survived when almost no other Northeastern Republican could in 2006. So, despite the fact that it is almost certain that Barack Obama will carry this affluent southwestern Connecticut district and polls show Democrat Jim Himes running even with Shays, we won't believe Shays is going down until we see it.

34. North Carolina's 8th district (R): Rep. Robin Hayes (R) drew national headlines earlier this week for all the wrong reasons. Warming up a crowd before a John McCain rally, Hayes told the crowd that "liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God." After denying he said it, Hayes acknowledged he did but said he simply didn't remember saying it. Um, ok. Even before this foible Democrats insisted that 2006 nominee Larry Kissell was well positioned to win in a district with a considerable black population (27 percent).

33. New York's 29th district (R): Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) has never had a strong hold on this Southern Tier seat since he won it in 2004 when longtime Rep. Amo Houghton (R) stepped aside. And yet, despite winning reelection by 6,000 votes in 2006 and facing the same opponent -- Democrat Eric Massa -- again this cycle, Kuhl didn't seem ready for the race he faced. The incumbent has been outraised by $500,000 to date -- a sign of his failure to take care of business.

32. Michigan's 7th district (R): Even Republicans admit that state Sen. Mark Schauer was the best candidate Democrats could possibly hope for against freshman Rep. Tim Walberg (R). There is considerable disagreement between the two parties' polling with Democratic polling consistently showing Schauer ahead and GOP polling giving Walberg the edge. The Club For Growth has helped keep Walberg in the game with serious spending on ads bashing Schauer for much of the last month.

31. Maryland's 1st district (R): State Sen. Andrew Harris's Republican primary victory over Rep. Wayne Gilchrest earlier this year seemed to ensure his ascent to Congress. But, Queen Anne County Attorney Frank Kratovil has run a savvy and well financed ($1.5 million raised) campaign and won the endorsement of Gilchrest -- a very well known presence in the western Maryland Eastern Shore district.

30. Louisiana's 4th district (R): Imagine this (likely) scenario: Barack Obama is elected to the White House, Democrats win eight seats in the Senate and another 25 seats in the House. With Democrats ascendant, Republicans will have to try to hold on to this Shreveport-based seat in a Dec. 6 general election matchup. (Don't ask -- it's Louisiana.) Former Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche should win the Democratic nomination on Nov. 4 and the Republican side is much more up in the air. A post-election problem for the GOP.

29. Minnesota's 3rd district (R): Democrat Ashwin Madia appears to have edged ahead of state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) in this race in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. In a neutral year, Paulsen would likely win. But Madia's grassroots campaign, his service in Iraq and the strong year shaping up for Democrats in the state make him a slight favorite.

28. Minnesota's 6th district (R): Note to vulnerable incumbents: Don't go on national TV two weeks before an election. Just don't do it.

27. Michigan's 9th district (R): For years, national Democratic strategists had looked at the demographics of Rep. Joe Knollenberg's (R) 9th district, which Bush won with 51 percent four years ago, and seen opportunity. It looks like they have finally fulfilled that promise as state Sen. Gary Peters is running strong -- buoyed by a new Democratic poll that shows him ahead by 10 points.

26. Illinois' 11th district (R): It was an oversight that this seat was not included in the top 25. State Sen. Debbie Halvorson (D) is ahead and Republicans are ready to concede that concrete magnate Marty Ozinga isn't going to come back.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 24, 2008; 2:00 PM ET
Categories:  House , The Line  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: McCain Pushes "Obama as Risky" Message
Next: Ad Wars: Obama Works For a Major Majority

Comments

An Obama landslide?
Sure.

But only after Cillizza has sweated blood trying to prevent it.

Posted by: wardropper | October 27, 2008 11:07 AM | Report abuse

We as citizens and voters are about to make a critical decision about the future direction of our country and its role in the world -- who will fill the executive vacancy as leader of the United States of America?

When you interview someone, or you are interviewed for a job, what is taken into consideration to evaluate qualifications?

1. experience
2. record of accomplishment
3. ability to make a convincing argument, as well as to look you in the eye and say the truth (no conflicting statements)
4. the candidate's associations (what boards has he served on and organizations has he volunteered with)
5. character -- a background check is usually required for employment to check one's references, verify one's resume, and even to check their fiscal responsibility (credit check). Some jobs require a security clearance.


I believe that only John McCain can pass all five of these job interview criteria, but please don't take my word for it.

Please, evaluate all the candidates for yourself from a completely nonpartisan and unbiased source -- Project Vote Smart, and then you decide on November 4. Each candidate deserves a fair chance to make their case and we owe it to ourselves and future generations to seriously consider the merits of each based on a clear understanding of who they are and what they really believe. Please base your vote on facts not on partisanship.

The site lists all candidates, their biographies, voting records, associations, endorsements, and stances they've taken on the issues by filling out questionnaires.

http://www.votesmart.org

Posted by: voterinPARandy | October 27, 2008 9:53 AM | Report abuse

WARNING!!


You tube video of Barack Obama in Kenya supporting Raila Odinga, the election and violence afterwards.

Odinga was the agent of 'change'


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b63bBCC2-yM

Posted by: cingi | October 26, 2008 9:47 PM | Report abuse

.

.

Let's be serious here gentlemen New Hampshire voters are probably the most familiar with John McCain compared to any state including Arizona - the idea that New Hampshire voters do not know that McCain is independent of Bush is crazy.


What is going on this year - very little press scrutiny in the national media of Rezko, Ayers and the Rev. Wright who all mentored Obama - very little or nothing about Emil Jones.


McCain's portrayal in the press has been just about malpractice on the part of the national media - McCain has been at odds with the national Republican leadership for years - McCain fought for years to get a Campaign Finance Reform legislation - McCain has been the maverick all through - if the public does not know this one has to blame the press for being deceptive.

In contrast Obama SAYS HE WANTS TO DO WHAT MCCAIN HAS DONE. Classic deception.

This year has been unbelievable. In the end I believe John McCain will win because the American people are smarter than the press.


.

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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 26, 2008 9:59 AM | Report abuse

I would like to point ou that Chris did "throw one your way" in regard to the FL-16th. It was on the 1 - 25 seats most likely to change hands that preceded this line. Guess what, it was number #1. Way to pay attention there.

Posted by: cmb1 | October 25, 2008 9:13 PM | Report abuse

Chris- What about florida 16? C'mon throw one our way. Tim Mahoney sleeping with that lady...who was not his wife in a district that is already sensitive to sex scandals? Foley's old seat? Give Rooney a shout out! The R's are taking back Florida 16.

Posted by: rjameson286 | October 25, 2008 7:07 PM | Report abuse

That story about Virgil Goode being connected to a "gay art house film" is HYSTERICAL. I love when Republicans' ridiculous squeamishness about something so ubiquitous and unthreatening as garden variety homosexuality can be used against them.

Posted by: Budikavlan | October 25, 2008 4:35 PM | Report abuse

.


.

TO ALL THE PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO ARE COMPLETELY INSANE:


Virginia is filled with Military and former Military people - plus the southwest corner is all for McCain - you are completely out of your minds if you believe that Obama is going to win Virginia

Sorry

The media is drinking some kool-aid to put out the kind of stuff they have.

I seriously would like to know where these polls are coming from.

The pollsters are playing fast-and-loose with the demographics of these polls - examine the internals of the age groups and the ethnic groups and you can see for yourself. McCain is either tied or within 3 points in the key swing states - McCain is going to win.


.

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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 25, 2008 9:24 AM | Report abuse

.

.

The Polls are wrong it is that simple. Every discussion we have had with people on the ground the topic has come up - where are the pollsters supposedly finding all these Obama supporters ???


Obama should be concerned.


I simply can not believe that this nation would vote for an inexperienced person who has no economic or business experience except for buying cocaine.


.

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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 25, 2008 9:04 AM | Report abuse

From here in the Low Country it does look like there is a good chance of putting the "Republican work horse" as he calls himself out to pasture. Linda Ketner really does have a chance. Long lines at the absentee voting site imply strong democratic participation.
Waterchemist

Posted by: waterchemist | October 24, 2008 10:44 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN'S OWN WORDS IN 2000 - HE'S A SOFT SOCIALIST FLIP-FLOPPER

STUDENT: Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor. Why is that - why does he have to pay higher taxes than everybody else? Just because he makes more money. How is that fair?

MCCAIN: I think you're questioning, questioning the fundamentals of a progressive tax system where people who make more money pay more in taxes than a flat across the board percentage. I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more. We have over the years beginning with John F. Kennedy reduced some of those marginal tax rates to make them less onerous. I believe that when you really look at the tax code the very wealthy because they can afford tax lawyers and all kinds of loopholes really don't pay as much as you think they do, when you just kook at the percentages. And I think middle income Americans, working Americans, who when you count in payroll taxes, sales taxes, mortgage -- all of the, all of the taxes that working Americans pay -- I think you would also think that they also deserve very significant relief.

At that point host Chris Matthews asked for members of the audience to applaud if they support wealthier people paying a higher percentage of their incomes; there was loud applause.

STUDENT: I still don't see how that's fair...aren't we getting closer and closer to Socialism and stuff...?

MCCAIN: Look, here's what I really believe: That when you are, when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more. But at the same time it shouldn't be totally out of proportion.

McCain added that the "first people who deserve a tax cut are working Americans...and they're the ones I would support tax cuts for first."

Posted by: seemstome | October 24, 2008 9:56 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN'S OWN WORDS IN 2000 - HE'S A SOFT SOCIALIST

STUDENT: Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor. Why is that - why does he have to pay higher taxes than everybody else? Just because he makes more money. How is that fair?

MCCAIN: I think you're questioning, questioning the fundamentals of a progressive tax system where people who make more money pay more in taxes than a flat across the board percentage. I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more. We have over the years beginning with John F. Kennedy reduced some of those marginal tax rates to make them less onerous. I believe that when you really look at the tax code the very wealthy because they can afford tax lawyers and all kinds of loopholes really don't pay as much as you think they do, when you just kook at the percentages. And I think middle income Americans, working Americans, who when you count in payroll taxes, sales taxes, mortgage -- all of the, all of the taxes that working Americans pay -- I think you would also think that they also deserve very significant relief.

At that point host Chris Matthews asked for members of the audience to applaud if they support wealthier people paying a higher percentage of their incomes; there was loud applause.

STUDENT: I still don't see how that's fair...aren't we getting closer and closer to Socialism and stuff...?

MCCAIN: Look, here's what I really believe: That when you are, when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more. But at the same time it shouldn't be totally out of proportion.

McCain added that the "first people who deserve a tax cut are working Americans...and they're the ones I would support tax cuts for first."

Posted by: seemstome | October 24, 2008 9:53 PM | Report abuse

MCCAIN IN 2000 - HE'S A SOFT SOCIALIST

STUDENT: Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor. Why is that - why does he have to pay higher taxes than everybody else? Just because he makes more money. How is that fair?

MCCAIN: I think you're questioning, questioning the fundamentals of a progressive tax system where people who make more money pay more in taxes than a flat across the board percentage. I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more. We have over the years beginning with John F. Kennedy reduced some of those marginal tax rates to make them less onerous. I believe that when you really look at the tax code the very wealthy because they can afford tax lawyers and all kinds of loopholes really don't pay as much as you think they do, when you just kook at the percentages. And I think middle income Americans, working Americans, who when you count in payroll taxes, sales taxes, mortgage -- all of the, all of the taxes that working Americans pay -- I think you would also think that they also deserve very significant relief.

At that point host Chris Matthews asked for members of the audience to applaud if they support wealthier people paying a higher percentage of their incomes; there was loud applause.

STUDENT: I still don't see how that's fair...aren't we getting closer and closer to Socialism and stuff...?

MCCAIN: Look, here's what I really believe: That when you are, when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more. But at the same time it shouldn't be totally out of proportion.

McCain added that the "first people who deserve a tax cut are working Americans...and they're the ones I would support tax cuts for first."

Posted by: seemstome | October 24, 2008 9:51 PM | Report abuse

Liberal Democrat/Socialist Obamanazis must be the dumbest people on the planet, to believe in the fairy tales Barack Obama and the Democrat/Socialists are spinning them. Is there an Idiot School you guys go to that you have to graduate from? Even if you're dumb enough to believe that a President Barack Obama would only tax the people making $250,000 a year, the fact is that any tax increase on businesses, business owners, corporations, and corporate executives will simply be passed on to the people at the bottom of the food chain. They'll pay it because businesses, business owners, corporations, and corporate executives will simply tack on any tax increase they get on the price of their products or services. In simple terms that you dopes just might understand--although I won't bet on it--if I'm Joe the Plumber making $250,000 a year in my plumbing business and a President Obama raises my taxes, I'll still be making $250,000 a year because whatever Obama's new taxes are, will be paid for by my customers. That means every plumbing job I do will now cost $50.00 bucks or so more. Since all the Plumbing businesses in the USA operate about the same way, that means every Plumbing business owner will still be making exactly what he was making before, because they'll all pass the extra cost on. Since 95% or more of these Plumbing job problems come from working people who have ordinary jobs making ordinary wages, it'll be they who'll be paying my increased Plumbing business taxes that a President Obama tacked on my business. The same goes for every business big or small. Tax the oil companies or the oil companies executives, and the price of the oil companies products go up. Tax Construction companies and the cost of that municipal building a city wants and needs built will cost that cities taxpayers more. And on, and on, and on. Only a liberal Democrat/Socialist Obamanazi could possible be so dumb as to believe that a business or business owner would absorb the extra tax and cost and make less than he was making before. Grow up children and get to know the real world.

Posted by: armpeg | October 24, 2008 9:17 PM | Report abuse

G'OBAMA,G'OBAMA!!!

Posted by: fu_buki | October 24, 2008 8:32 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA BIDEN 08...!!!


NETHERLANDS ANTILLES

Posted by: fu_buki | October 24, 2008 8:15 PM | Report abuse

Don't forget that Virgil Goode gave us all a laugh two years ago.

Remember when he said that since Keith Ellison of MN had given his House oath on the Koran that it was "un-American?"

Ellison of course got the best of him, by using a Koran owned by one of Goode's own deceased constituents: that famous anti-American Thomas Jefferson!

I'll be sad to see Goode and Bachmann go- they are truly unitentionally hilarious.

Posted by: CTMan | October 24, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

Turns out the not true story about the woman who had a B cut into her cheek was pushed by the Mccain camp. They were out to every news origination with a hyped up version racially based with no knowledge if it was even true other then their own wishful thinking. Then that F'n moron John Mccain even called the person jumping on the story without any checking what so ever in his usual erratic fashion. If she had been killed that would have made the story even better, they would have loved that. Another Mccain desperate erratic moment trying to use someone for his political purpose. Well, we only have 11 more days and we will be rid of this political piece of garbage known as John Mccain.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 7:19 PM | Report abuse

Glad to see California's 4th on that list.

Since I was old enough to be congnizant of politics I've been ashamed to be represented by John T. Doolittle.

McClintock is just as bad.

Go Charlie Brown!

Posted by: rygr | October 24, 2008 7:17 PM | Report abuse

The Dems cried foul in 2000 and 2004, it looks like the Rs have already started crying this year.

When there is voter fraud ... ever ... the people responsible should be jailed. Who would disagree with that? Voter fraud undermines democracy.

Now ... how do you feel about punishing people who knowingly make false accusations of voter fraud? The poor crazy face-carving lady is being charged for filing a false police report, right? I think McCain may have crossed that same line with these ACORN allegations. Lets have a truly complete investigation into this matter.

I think Obama should ask McCain right now to choose a Ken Star style investigator and promise to let that person head a bipartisan investigation into voter fraud and suppression in this country (assuming BHO wins).

This is an important issue in the country these days, and I am tired of having all these accusations thrown around. So far there have been small scale, local investigations that have not laid the issue to rest. Lets get to the bottom of the issue. If there is a problem, then jail (impeach?) the wrong doers and fix the holes. If not, then we can throw rotten veggies at all the windbags pushing the disproved allegations.

Posted by: ath28 | October 24, 2008 6:56 PM | Report abuse

I live in Crisfield, in Maryland's 1'st district, where as Chris says, "State Sen. Andrew Harris's Republican primary victory over Rep. Wayne Gilchrest earlier this year seemed to ensure his ascent to Congress. But, Queen Anne County Attorney Frank Kratovil has run a savvy and well financed ($1.5 million raised) campaign and won the endorsement of Gilchrest -- a very well known presence in the western Maryland Eastern Shore district."

This is a largely rural area with a large black population. White people here tend to the right, and Gilchrest was an oddity, a left-leaning Republican, defeated in the primary by a hard right winger.

As you might guess from my prodigious posting here, I regularly bombarded my congressman (Gilchrest) with emails ensuring that he knew my position on issues. Every single time I did so, I received snail mail in reply, addressing my concerns specifically and explaining his votes (which did not always agree with my positions).

In light of that experience, it's not surprising to me that Gilchrest has a following here. He got blindsided in a primary where the hard right got out the vote.

Since then, I've received two glossy mailings from Kratovil, and none from Harris (and I am a registered Republican). From this, I conclude that either Kratovil has tons of dough and Harris none, or perhaps Kratovil has Gilchrest's mailing list and what we have received are targeted mailings.

My household has three members. Two have already voted for Kratovil; the laggard will do so shortly.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 24, 2008 6:32 PM | Report abuse

CC, I join others in suggesting that this was an excellent column. It was good to see the expanded list.

TX CD 10 is in play, but the incumbent is favored.

I do not understand why so many people want to discuss anything but this thread.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 24, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, bsimon, good info.


bsimon1 wrote:

officermancuso says
"As a read through this material I wish I had some sense of where these districts are located within their respective states and just a thumbnail of demographics to go with it."

Open another browser & use wikipedia. It has pretty good info & maps for congressional districts, at least for my state (MN).

Posted by: officermancuso | October 24, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse


John Mccain is senile

Christopher Hitchens on Hard Ball said out loud what many have privately been saying John Mccain is senile. He went on to make a pretty good case for it referencing things over the last year. When asked if Mccain was qualified to be president a year ago, he said just about, today no.
---------------------


I saw that too, but i don't think McC is senile. He's just an average mind in an old body...and someone who thinks that the Presidency is owed him. Fatal trio.

He is simply not Presidential. Neither was Bush.

Conservatives are abandoning McCain in droves now. All that's left are the Rapture-longing Right hoping he'll die in office so Sister Sarah can become the Grand Inquisitor, er, President.


Posted by: wpost4112 | October 24, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse

"Call it schadenfreude but after 4 years of a Democrat/Socialist government-run President Barack Obama administration, the Constitutional rights we now have would probably be curtailed and some possibly made null and void...."

Yeah, I was about to talk about all this on the the phone with a friend the other day, but decided not to -now that the government can listen in to anything they want any time they want for any reason they want.

So, I see you are among those that think that because Obama and McCain are quarreling over marginal changes to our over 100 year old progressive tax system, that Obama is a socialist. (Why is not McCain also a socialist? McCain wants to shift the tax burden to downward, Obama wants to shift it upward..that is all they are arguing about!!)

You seen to fail to realize that it was Adam Smith himself that proposed the very idea and utility of a progressive tax system!!

Posted by: plaza04433 | October 24, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse


John Mccain is senile

Christopher Hitchens on Hard Ball said out loud what many have privately been saying John Mccain is senile. He went on to make a pretty good case for it referencing things over the last year. When asked if Mccain was qualified to be president a year ago, he said just about, today no.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

I know that wing-nuts like this shouldn't be responded too, but it's too laughable to pass up:

"The 1st Amendments free speech clause would be restricted with the hush-Rush Bill, and similar hate-crime laws under the guise of not offending certain groups but not others (conservative and Republicans need not apply)."

Absolutely crazy. If anyone in power wanted to hush Rush, they would legalize OxyContin and let Rush gorge himself into the Land of Nod.

"The 2nd Amendment would be totally null and void, consitering Obama's and the Democrats past history of taking away all guns from private law-abiding US citizens."

You completely ignore Obama's stance on weapons, and neither Democrats, Republicans, Whigs, Dixiecrats, nor Federalists have a history of "taking away all guns."

"The private property right of every American would probably be a right no more, if the all liberal yes-vote ruling by the US Supreme Court's New London Kelo decision is an indicator."

No one has an absolute right to private property, only the right not to have it seized without due process of law. You are also a retard to moan about how unfair votes are that are decided by an "all-liberal" majority but celebrate ones decided by an "all-conservative" one.

"The American workers right to a free and fair election by secret ballot of choosing union representation or not will be made null and void."

Because conservatives genuinely have the union rights of the American worker at the forefront of policy. How flippin' dumb do you think people are to think that's the case? Sarah Palin dumb? Larry Craig dumb?

This is why it is too hard to vote Republican anymore. It is the party of Rush, Palin, morons who carve backwards "B's" in their faces, and authors of the screed I quoted.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 24, 2008 5:40 PM | Report abuse

Regarding your #50, Virgil Goode, he was the one who argued in the well of the House that we need to follow Bush to the gates of hell or we will be saying "In Moo-hammed We Trust." Virgil Goode is representative who expanded the scare of the "godless dollars" regarding the problems the Mint had with the striking of the new presidential dollar coins. Goode added the measure to move "In God We Trust" from the edge to the face of the coin. Goode, would rather rail on moral issues than legislative issues. It would be satisfying to see Virgil Goode defeated!!

Posted by: Scott76 | October 24, 2008 5:37 PM | Report abuse

"Democrats are now looking at a plan to go after Americans' 401k accounts. These accounts serve as the retirement nest-egg for millions of Americans."

Where have you been?

You mean what's left of our 401K accounts... assuming anything is left at all after a few more weeks like we have just had.

Posted by: plaza04433 | October 24, 2008 5:36 PM | Report abuse

armpit poofed:

Call it schadenfreude but after 4 years of a Democrat/Socialist government-run President Barack Obama administration, the Constitutional rights we now have would probably be curtailed and some possibly made null and void.

---------------

schadenfreude? Naw...you're just a fraud ...or a hysterical frau.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 24, 2008 5:28 PM | Report abuse

Call it schadenfreude but after 4 years of a Democrat/Socialist government-run President Barack Obama administration, the Constitutional rights we now have would probably be curtailed and some possibly made null and void. A few that come to mind are: ***The 1st Amendments free speech clause would be restricted with the hush-Rush Bill, and similar hate-crime laws under the guise of not offending certain groups but not others (conservative and Republicans need not apply). ***The 2nd Amendment would be totally null and void, consitering Obama's and the Democrats past history of taking away all guns from private law-abiding US citizens. ***The private property right of every American would probably be a right no more, if the all liberal yes-vote ruling by the US Supreme Court's New London Kelo decision is an indicator. To the un-informed: that decision was a 5-4 decision. It broke down along liberal and conservative lines with every US Supreme Court Justice consitered liberal (Ginsberg, Souter, Stephens, Kennedy, and Bryer) voting to take away the private property of the American citizen if the local government could get more tax money from businesses getting the property. Every US Supreme Court Justice consitered conservative (Renquest, Scalia, Thomas, O'Connor) voted FOR the private property rights of all American citizens (with a Democrat/Socialist President Barack Obama and a Democrat/Socialist congress you can kiss your private property good bye if a business wants it). ***The American workers right to a free and fair election by secret ballot of choosing union representation or not will be made null and void, with union goons handing a worker a ballot and watching him/her fill it out (I wouldn't advise a worker to vote no, these union goons know where you live).

Posted by: armpeg | October 24, 2008 5:23 PM | Report abuse

Chris,
I doesn't surprise me so many seats are in play considering how unhappy we all are over how the government's been run. Despite Cheney's attempts to expand Bush's power, Bush did not go unaided. Congress never tried to question or stop him. They're going to have to be part of the house cleaning as well since they did their part to enable all the failures.

Posted by: jaynashvil | October 24, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

It it truly time for a change in the 8th District of NC. Robin Hayes really put his foot in his mouth with that one. Typically GOP response. Says something offensive like if we are not GOP or conservative we are not real Americans , we don't love God and we don't work hard. Democrats love America just as much as you do Mr. Hayes. This Democrat works hard to support her family, pay her mortgage. This Democrats wants to see a true change in American and In the 8th District. I have already voted for that change. I hope this time there are enough people voting to vote you out.

Posted by: bjlopez1130 | October 24, 2008 4:59 PM | Report abuse

Ok. To round out the group, lets get a list of 51 to 75 seats (the next 25) that are in play. It will help us keep score on election night.

Posted by: cyberfool | October 24, 2008 4:49 PM | Report abuse

WHAT SOME OF THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW HIM BEST SAY ABOUT JOHN MCCAIN.......

"He is a vicious person"
Former representative Charles LeBoutillier R-NY
---------------
"An embarrassment to the party"
Arizona GOP state senator Susan Johnson
---------------
"There is nothing redeeming about John Mccain...he's a hypocrite"
Former house GOP whip Tom DeLay
-----------------
"The thought of him being president sends a chill down my spine. He is erratic"
Senator Thad Cochran, R- MS
------------------
"Hard headed is one way to say it. Arrogant is another way to say it. It's a quality about him that disturbs me".
Larry Wilkerson, former chief aide to Colin Powell
------------------
"What happens if he gets angry in a crisis...? It's the presidents job to negotiate and stay calm. I just don't see that he has that quality".
Former Arizona GOP chairman John Hinz
-------------------
"His temper would place this country at risk...and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind that should disqualify him"
Former Senator Bob Smith, R-NM
-------------------
"I decided I didn't want this guy anywhere near a trigger."
Senator Pete Domenici, R-NM
-------------------
"I don't know Mccain I have only met him a few times but I personally believe he is out of his mind and has been for a long time."

A voter not voting for John Mccain

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 4:45 PM | Report abuse

"Democrats are now looking at a plan to go after Americans' 401k accounts."

Bush and his goons have already taken most of mine. The Dems are welcome to what's left.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 24, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse
-----------------

Mccain is essentially losing his mind and making his campaign up as he goes along. I just today heard him say at a rally that if you elect Obama he will all but end our military. We won;t have anymore military. Mccain is completely out of his mind if you watch him from day to day. He is completely cracking up under the pressure of this campaign. He is now just short of being a madman.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 4:41 PM | Report abuse

McCain - Big time loser. 26 years in Congress to articulate his position, and yet in this campaign, he can do nothing but distort other's positions, and show that in all those years, the unknown, untested, Sarah Palin is the best he's got? Maybe it's just the best that would agree to go on the ticket with this demented old fool?

Posted by: nihao1 | October 24, 2008 4:37 PM | Report abuse

"Democrats are now looking at a plan to go after Americans' 401k accounts."

Bush and his goons have already taken most of mine. The Dems are welcome to what's left.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 24, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse

After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.

Obamacons Politics of "Inclusiveness!"
(sarc)

Posted by: pgr88 | October 24, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse
=============

If you remember back in 2004 there were fake threats the republicans did themselves. Even a phony office vandalism. Can we all say Rove? Want to hear about the almost daily threats Obama people get? His offices get bomb threats, he has had a special detail of secret service since he began running. His workers are called nig%er lovers and one was assaulted only today. On Orders of Obama almost none of this makes the news although a few stories have been done. One of his Florida offices was vandalized just a few weeks ago and was closed to three days. I am not really interested in a few BS emails.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

SC first district is along the coastline centered on Charleston. Brown does good constituent service but made the mistake of endorsing development of a wetlands area on Kiawah Island, a high end, gated island resort. Earlier, he started a brush fire on his property which spread into the Francis Marion National Forest - and then didn't want to pay for the expenses for putting it out - plus the fine. Lots of Northerners have moved here. Lots of closet Dems, like me. I am hoping, at the very least, that a large Dem vote will shock the Repugs into paying attention to business instead of to the good ole boys.

Posted by: scflash | October 24, 2008 4:33 PM | Report abuse

leapin writes
"Democrats are now looking at a plan to go after Americans' 401k accounts."

don't wet your pants yet. According to your own post, Congress heard testimony from someone promoting the idea. Until someone actually proposes legislation, you're howling at the moon.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 24, 2008 4:32 PM | Report abuse

I sleep at nights knowing that you'll keep them in line 37.

--“ Seriously, if there is an attempt to steal this election something must be done.
.
Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 24, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse “--

Posted by: DonJasper | October 24, 2008 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Chris,

All I can say is "wow". You have lifted my spirits beyond the clouds. I dislike everything the Republican party has become, and I believe anything short of euthanasia will not suffice this year.

This sir, would do it. If the election does it, America will change, and for the better. We cannot afford anything less.

Posted by: BisbeeAZ | October 24, 2008 4:30 PM | Report abuse

I urge all voters to vote out of office all incumbants. We need to send a clear message, that we are mad as ----, and won't take it any more. Of course we do not have that choice with the presidential race. In this case make a decision, voting is our responsibility.

Posted by: cbnmid | October 24, 2008 4:25 PM | Report abuse

officermancuso says
"As a read through this material I wish I had some sense of where these districts are located within their respective states and just a thumbnail of demographics to go with it."

Open another browser & use wikipedia. It has pretty good info & maps for congressional districts, at least for my state (MN).

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 24, 2008 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Oh wait. I found my glasses, and the geographical references - was it Lily Tomlin who used to do the "never mind!" commentary routine on Laugh-In?

Posted by: officermancuso | October 24, 2008 4:24 PM | Report abuse

After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.

Obamacons Politics of "Inclusiveness!"
(sarc)

Posted by: pgr88 | October 24, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

I feel like a beggar who just had a truckload of fine china delivered to his shack free of charge, and still finds something to carp and moan about - but here goes ;)

As a read through this material I wish I had some sense of where these districts are located within their respective states and just a thumbnail of demographics to go with it.

I see that I can get the district-by-district demographics by clicking on the hyperlinks associated with each district in the post, but I can't get a sense of the geography.

Beggar's complaint notwithstanding, thanks very much for this mountain of painstaking research.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 24, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

MAybe we could import some decent politicians (boy, was an oxymoron) from abroad?

We, Americans, just don't do the social stuff well. We can send man to the Moon, drop an atomic bomb on a civilian population (now, THAT takes some balls!), and play pretty mean jazz. But we suck at building a decent, sustainable, responsible, and equitable society.

After all, we've been importing cheap labor from all over the world for at least 150 years.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 24, 2008 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Democrats are now looking at a plan to go after Americans' 401k accounts. These accounts serve as the retirement nest-egg for millions of Americans. They are used because money can be saved in these accounts tax-free. Oh, that is unless that new Democrat plan of "spread the wealth" becomes law. Then, we could all see our 401k tax breaks go out the window...


According to a report in U.S. News , Democrats are considering a plan that essentially end 401k plans in favor of a government-run saving plan. As the other notes:

I hate to use the "S" word, but the American government would never do something as, well, socialist as seize private pension funds, right? This is exactly what cash-strapped Argentina just did in the name of protecting workers' retirement accounts. Now, even Uncle Sam isn't that stupid, but some Democrats might try something almost as loopy: kill 401(k) plans.

House Democrats, looking for a way to have government take over more aspects of our lives, recently heard testimony on a plan promoted by Teresa Ghilarducci, a professor at the New School of Social Research in New York, "on her idea to eliminate the preferential tax treatment of the popular retirement plans."

In place of 401(k) plans, she would have workers transfer their dough into government-created "guaranteed retirement accounts" for every worker. The government would deposit $600 (inflation indexed) every year into the GRAs. Each worker would also have to save 5 percent of pay into the accounts, to which the government would pay a measly 3 percent return.

The topic is also covered in an article in Workforce Management . The Democrats' plan would target "the $80 billion in annual tax breaks that 401(k) investors receive." In essence, the 401k would lose the benefits that make it popular including the "employer-matching" feature upon which so many average Americans rely.

“From where I sit that’s just crazy,” said John Belluardo, president of Stewardship Financial Services Inc. in Tarrytown, New York. “A lot of people contribute to their 401(k)s because of the match of the employer,” he said. Belluardo’s firm does not manage assets directly.

Higher-income employers provide matching funds to employee plans so that they can qualify for tax benefits for their own defined-contribution plans, he said.

“If the tax deferral goes away, the employers have no reason to do the matches, which primarily help people in the lower income brackets,” Belluardo said.

The article quotes Christopher Van Slyke, a partner in the La Jolla, California, advisory firm Trovena. Van Slyke makes a key observation which I will repeat here: "This is a battle between liberalism and conservatism. People are afraid because their accounts are seeing some volatility, so Democrats will seize on the opportunity to attack a program where investors control their own destiny."


Posted by: leapin | October 24, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

Republican faux moderate Chris Shays (CT-04) will lose because the voters are finally wise to his deceptions. He told voters two years ago that he supported fixing a timeline for withdrawal of our troops from Iraq and that most could come home by the end of 2007 (Washington Post, August 25, 2006). Yet once safely re-elected, he turned around and voted for the surge, then voted five times AGAINST timelines for withdrawal. In short, he lied in his teeth.

And that's not all. A solid supporter of dismantling Social Security through private accounts, Shays' campaign is now pretending that Shays never suppported privatization. That, too, is a lie.

Then there is Shays' cynical epiphany that America needs universal health care- just six months before the election. Of course, he never once in his previous 21 years in Congress felt any need to promote universal health care.

And of course there is his support for torture, for illegal wiretapping, for the Patriot Act, his two endorsements of George Bush, and now his dishonest and cynical exploitation of Barack Obama's image in his advertizing when Shays is serving as McCain/Palin's campaign co-chairman in Connecticut.

Yes, Chris, Shays has been a survivor. But you can only tell so many lies before the voters figure out what you're all about. Democratic registration is surging, and even the right-wing hacks that conrol the media in Connecticut can't prevent Shays' defeat this year. He's toast!!!

Posted by: sbgoldrick | October 24, 2008 4:15 PM | Report abuse

"Murtha, Jefferson, Mahoney, Rangel, dodd, Schumer, Frank, Obama, clinton, moran, Reid,

And that's just the crooks I can think of without digging."

What about the girl who carved the backward "B" in her face, and blamed it on a brother?

Posted by: bondjedi | October 24, 2008 4:13 PM | Report abuse

DwightHCollins said:

"no opposition equals dictatorship..."
--
Wait a second, Mr. Stoopid, you should know.
The ReUGLYcans had no opposition bet. Jan 2011 and Nov 2006. How did that work out for you?
Well, it's our turn now. Get prepared to be very uncomfortable for the next 8 years

Posted by: VMR1 | October 24, 2008 4:08 PM | Report abuse

"After Obama is elected we can call nov 4th, 2008, the day journalism died"
-

Hahahahaha! The journalism died before you were born, namely in 1981. The birth of CNN: news as entertainment. What a brilliant idea by Ted Turner!

Now, why was CNN able to survive in 1981 but probably wouldn't have a decade earlier?
1. Technological capabilities
2. Realization by Ted Turner - after watching in amazement how the disco craze took off in this basically blues, rock and jazz country - that America has produced a critical mass of stupid, under-educated people who would watch "infotainment". A video tabloid kinda thing.

BTW, if any of you saw CNN in Europe or in Asia, you'd be amazed at the much higher quality of programming and professionalism of anchors. People abroad have no patience for the American-style nonsense.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 24, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

McCain, Jacksonville, FL, Sept. 15: "The fundamentals of our economy are sound."

Does McCain and his crew simply not get it? I mean, how out of touch can you possibly be?

Posted by: sofla | October 24, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

pelosi will be your queen next year because the dem men have no balls but she does have obama's by his...
no opposition equals dictatorship...
there will be no free press because if they tell the truth, they will be run out of town...

Posted by: DwightHCollins | October 24, 2008 4:03 PM | Report abuse

"I don't know who you are anymore, zouk."

No kidding. Lamenting the demise of the liberal media? Poor guy must've dropped a marble somewhere along the way.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 24, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

"After Obama is elected we can call nov 4th, 2008, the day journalism died."

Wow, look at that defeatist attitude! I thought that McCain was tied in the polls! THE ONE is behind in a few polls in some states! Landslide victory for the Republicans!

I don't know who you are anymore, zouk.

Posted by: Blarg | October 24, 2008 3:51 PM | Report abuse

Digital_Voter,

As a Democrat, I hope that Mahoney loses his seat. I don't want such a hypocrite representing my party (his wife is probably divorcing him due to the money he stole from his family--even if he didn't steal it from the government--as much as for his infidelity).

With the embrassment of riches the Democrats are gaining in political clout this cycle, we can well afford to lose this one seat to the Republicans.

Posted by: multiplepov | October 24, 2008 3:49 PM | Report abuse

From the Palm Beach Post...

This just gets better....

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2008/10/24/1024mahoney.html

Article
--------
Mahoney asked mistress to "tease" donors


Palm Beach Post Staff Reports

Friday, October 24, 2008

One of Congressman Tim Mahoney's (D-Fla) mistresses claimed he asked her to "tease" for big donors to raise money at fundraisers and wanted her to have sexual encounters with another woman for his entertainment, ABCNews.com reports.

Mahoney's office couldn't be reached for comment this morning.

Last week Mahoney confirmed that he had hired one of his mistresses on staff and had an affair with a Martin County official who asked for help in securing a FEMA grant.

The website says it has obtained a document revealing new allegations of "threatening behavior and sexual harassment toward a female staffer, that go far beyond Mahoney's public confession."

Patricia Allen, the former staff member, received $121,000 from Mahoney after she sent him a letter threatening to sue. The letter, among other things, claimed gross misconduct and stalking. Specifically, ABCNews.com quotes the letter accusing Mahoney of:

"a) Calling Allen late in the evenings and demanding "phone sex;"

b) Demanding that Allen answer his calls or face termination;

c) Demanding that Allen attend fundraisers and "tease c-ck" to bring in more donations from the male members of the public;

d) Demanding that Allen engage in sexual conduct with another woman for his enjoyment."

Mahoney was scheduled to debate Republican challenger Tom Rooney today at a Forum Club of the Palm Beaches lunch in West Palm Beach.

But Rooney appeared alongside an empty chair.

The Mahoney campaign said Thursday night the congressman would not appear at the debate if television cameras were allowed.

The Forum Club would not agree to Mahoney's demands, and half a dozen TV crews were in the room.

Instead of a debate, Rooney answered questions and outlined his platform - including a call for lower taxes, off shore oil drilling, and a quick end to the war in Iraq, but without a date-certain timetable for withdrawing troops.

Posted by: Digital_Voter | October 24, 2008 3:38 PM | Report abuse

I wouldn't mind if Murtha lost his seat.....I can care less about party affiliation; just the votes and actions of the members of Congress.

Here's the one I'd really like to see lose their seat. PELOSI!!!!!!

If any Democrat deserves to be booted from power despite a 'blue wave' it's her!!!

Posted by: theobserver4 | October 24, 2008 3:34 PM | Report abuse

Living in the 2nd congressional district in Virginia, we delivered a vote to Glen Nye today as well as votes to Obama and Warner.

Of tangential importance is the young woman who shouted that an Obama supporter had attacked her. Now we know that it was a hoax. I wonder if FOX news will admit that they overplayed another news item.

Now, we also learn that Joe the plumber may have been a plant. It would make sense. There is no shame with Republicans. The Christian right-wing must be really proud of their tactics. They keep doing them. Personally, I define Christian values a bit differently from my Christian Republican brothers and sisters who have shown their contempt for racial minorities and the truth in the past.

May Obama win so that we can get to the business of uniting our country.

People forget that if Obama tries any stunts while in office, the Republicans will launch impeachment proceedings. As we all should know, there is a remedy for Presidents who do "bad" things as they relate to the U.S. Constitution. This is why I think that Bush should have been impeached years ago. The problem, it would have to be two impeachments at the same time: Bush and Cheney.

Posted by: EarlC | October 24, 2008 3:30 PM | Report abuse

I'll throw a bone for little zouk. It is reported at the AP that Rep Mahoney declined to attend a debate because TV cameras would be allowed. The DCCC has apparently cut him off as well & he faces an ethics investigation. So don't be surprised if he loses big & resigns his seat shortly after the election.

Also, if you bothered to actually read The Fix's posts, you'd have seen that Mahoney's seat was ranked #1 to flip in the top 25 line. See the link in the first sentence, above.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 24, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Quick!!! Someone get Zouk; he needs to make another promise to leave the Fix forever if the Republicans lose seats this election. He knows the truth that the South shall rise again

hahahaahaahaahha

Posted by: theobserver4 | October 24, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

We live in the 6th District in Missouri. We may be rednecks but we can see the truth when we look. Sam Graves should not return to the House. ...................

http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/21/the-prophecy-of-barack-obama/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 24, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

Well, it's probably time the Idiot Democrats get a shot at screwing up the country. The Idiot Republicans have done a good enough job for a while. Let the ID's have a shot at all of it, see what happens in 2010 or 2012 when the IR's come back to power after people are thoroughly disgusted with the situation. It'll be 1994 all over again...but who's the new Gingrich? Where are the old Republican ideas and ideals?

Posted by: MajorConfusion | October 24, 2008 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Let's hope the Rethuglicans get the crushiest crushing of all crushdom, because they so richly deserve it. Then, when corporate corruption takes over the Democratic Party as Rahm Emanuel would like it to, America can start electing some REAL progressives. Go Greens!

Posted by: Bukkonen | October 24, 2008 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Chris,
I'm pretty proud an objective observer whom I enjoy reading has the chutzpah to insinuate that my Party can conceivably win more than 40 House seats. At this point, I'll be disappointed if we don't win at least that many. But, by Election night I think our potential gains could be in the 50+ seat range. This election cycle is closing nicely for us. Another one to keep an eye on here in the L-state is our seventh cd, where senator Don Cravins, Jr. is putting up a strong challenge.
Conceivably, we could even win Jindal's old district in the first, with an index of r+ 16.3 if we get high turnout on Election night. This piece is wise acknowledgement of what many objective observers are afraid to predict.

Posted by: jdunph1 | October 24, 2008 3:18 PM | Report abuse

I'm not even voting for the democrats, any of them, and I'm still happy to see the republicans being handed their asss in a sling.

You people suck hard, you are enemies of America as sure as any we've ever had.

Too bad we can't replace you with someone besides the democrats, but there we are.

Posted by: barfolomew | October 24, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

Where's all the chanting by the press about the culture of corruption:

Murtha, Jefferson, Mahoney, Rangel, dodd, Schumer, Frank, Obama, clinton, moran, Reid,

And that's just the crooks I can think of without digging.

when the big bopper died, they said "the day the music died"

After Obama is elected we can call nov 4th, 2008, the day journalism died.

Prediction test, who will have lower ratings next year, the PeLousy congress currently at 9% approval or journalists. throw in used car salesmen, trial lawyers and you have the scum of the earth aseembled and ready to fleece you.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 24, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Again, nothing about Murtha trailing in the polls -- a new poll yesterday had him down 13 points. And the Democrat who took Foley's seat is down by almost 30 points.

But I guess it's hard to see when you're in a TANK.

Posted by: info42 | October 24, 2008 3:05 PM | Report abuse

"Wasn't Virgil Goode the one who was trying to say we need tougher immigration laws so that Muslims like Keith Ellison don't get into political office?"

What does he want - to quell interstate migration? Rep Ellison was born in Michigan. Of course, such rules would have saved us from Brooklyner Norm Coleman, so perhaps he's onto something.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 24, 2008 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Mccain needs more


"COW BELL"

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 2:54 PM | Report abuse

Watch a Republican tidal wave come through


People are going to wake up to Obama's inexperience.

WHY SHOULD ONE RISK ONE'S JOB ON AN INEXPERIENCED PERSON TO RUN THE ECONOMY WHEN THE ONLY ECONOMIC OR BUSINESS EXPERIENCE THAT PERSON HAS HAS BEEN BUYING COCAINE?

.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 24, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse
----------------

Because the alternative is this guy.
A PHONY, A COWARD, A LIAR

JOHN MCCAIN, TRAITOR TO HIS COUNTRY, COLLABORATOR WITH THE ENEMY, MILITARY DISGRACE.


Ted Sampley, a Vietnam Veteran and former Green Beret, issued a CHALLENGE to John McCain "If you can show us that the information presented in our mailer is untruthful . . . we will Stand Down" This CHALLENGE was issued during an interview with INSIDE EDITION on January 17, 2008.
John, family members of Vietnam POW/MIA(s) have been waiting for more then 14 years for you to have the courage to face them eye to eye in front of the American Public - Here is your opportunity for some "STRAIGHT TALK." Stop hiding behind your fabricated "War Hero" persona. You know we can prove your collaborations with declassified government documents . . . It is time for the American people to get to know the REAL John McCain - the John McCain that the POW/MIA families witnessed during the 1991-93 US Senate Select Committee on POW/MIA Affairs .
Bring It On John! HERE IS OUR NUMBER 252-527-0442
*********** ************* ************** *********** ***********
Activists accused McCain of stonewalling the release of POW records because they contained evidence he had collaborated with the North Vietnamese.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoseBNetlEk

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 2:52 PM | Report abuse

The pollsters have finally taken an interest in MN-6. SurveyUSA says the race is 47 to 44, an MPR/Humphrey Institute (U of M) shows it 45 to 43; both favor challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg. The MPR/Humphrey poll shows Coleman significantly outpolling Bachmann in her district.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/10/24/poll_tinklenberg_leads_bachmann_in_the_6th_dist/

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 24, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

CC,

I got a FEVER and the only prescription is more House Line!

Posted by: mnteng | October 24, 2008 2:50 PM | Report abuse

Wasn't Virgil Goode the one who was trying to say we need tougher immigration laws so that Muslims like Keith Ellison don't get into political office?

Posted by: DDAWD | October 24, 2008 2:49 PM | Report abuse

Amusing how desperate the Socialist Republicans are getting.

Just look at the $35 million in emergency attack ads the US Chamber of Commerce is doing for the US Senate (today's WSJ).

It's a Blue Tidal Wave fellas - and it's a comin' fer ya!

Posted by: WillSeattle | October 24, 2008 2:45 PM | Report abuse


CC - you forgot that conniving, sniveling bucket of scum Murtha. what a treat that would be and how the Democrats could boost their party by dumping that crook and liar.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 24, 2008 2:40 PM | Report abuse

.


.

You are risking your job if you vote for Obama.


Obama has no economic or business experience except for buying cocaine.


How do you expect him to know how to lead the economy ? Do not risk making the economy worse with Obama's high taxes.


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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 24, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

IBD - TPP Poll Presidential Tracking Poll: Obama 44.8%, McCain 43.7% According to the most accurate pollster of the 2004 campaign season, McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday Investors Business Daily

don't believe the press. they have gone way beyond spin to outright lies and fabrication!!

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 24, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Watch a Republican tidal wave come through


People are going to wake up to Obama's inexperience.

WHY SHOULD ONE RISK ONE'S JOB ON AN INEXPERIENCED PERSON TO RUN THE ECONOMY WHEN THE ONLY ECONOMIC OR BUSINESS EXPERIENCE THAT PERSON HAS HAS BEEN BUYING COCAINE?

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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 24, 2008 2:33 PM | Report abuse

Without a doubt Democrats will get more than the 60 seats Nov.4 to make a veto-proof majority against the Bushie senators who will yet remain. Though the Republicans in the Senate will try to be obstructionists to the Demo agendas of progressiveness and sanity afresh, they will be unsuccessful. Barack Obama has very long coat tals this election. Good government will be the result. Certainly an improvement of the last 8 horrible years we've seen under Bush.

Posted by: buzziea | October 24, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Cillizza: Maryland's 1st is in the Eastern part of the state, not the Western.

Posted by: DukeStinks | October 24, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse


ACORN


If there is voter fraud this year, those people who created ACORN and failed to put in place proper safeguards should be jailed immediately. If the Obama campaign has been involved in these efforts including arranging for funding for ACORN Obama and David Axelroad should be held personally responsible, arrested and jailed indefinitely.


The Obama campaign has already gone through vast efforts to prevent votes in Michigan and Florida which is almost communist tactics.


Watch - Acorn is under investigation - if they are submitting wholesale false voter registrations there could be an effort to have absentee ballots cast under those registrations - if Obama is involved they must jail him for years !!!


Seriously, if there is an attempt to steal this election something must be done.


For some reason the Obama campaign seems to believe that they are entitled to steal this election because of what they think Bush did in Florida in 2000 - that is not right - and if the country allows that to happen we will have a free-for-all in future elections.


Obama's campaign has already interfered improperly in the elections in Michigan and Florida.


Obama's campaign has already spent millions of dollars to pay bloggers to harrass and intimate people on the internet whose views Obama does not agree with.


Obama and his wife have a hostility toward the US Constitution rooted in slavery and the Jim Crow era - so they do not care about the US Constitution they way you would think they should.


If there is voter fraud which Obama has been a part of Obama should be jailed for a long time and he should be made an example of what black children should not grow up to be.


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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 24, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

I posted months ago that everything was in place for an electoral tidal wave. No one ever listens to me.

The state assembly race in my district, which is historically Republican, pits the long serving Republican who is related to or owed favors by half her district in a real fight with her challenger. The same woman who as a freshman out raised everybody in the state legislature except the senate majority leader and the speaker of the assembly, from a not poor but a not rich district, is in trouble. How often does a first time assemblywoman rank 3 in the state legislature for campaign fund raising? The yard signs tell the tale here. It is not uncommon to see a sign for both her and her opponent in the same yard. People will display her yard sign out of loyalty, but they plan on voting for the Democrat. Do not be surprised if the same sentiment pervades other districts.

Posted by: caribis | October 24, 2008 2:23 PM | Report abuse


Attack story made up. I wonder if the B scratched in her face backwards,(Use of a mirror) may have been the giveaway?

"A Pittsburgh police commander says a volunteer for the McCain campaign who reported being robbed and attacked near a bank ATM in Bloomfield has confessed to making up the story. Police say charges will be filed."

I think she wanted to be the next "Joe the plumber"

Posted by: popasmoke | October 24, 2008 2:17 PM | Report abuse

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