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House Republicans Bow to Political Reality


Storm clouds are gathering for House Republicans. Photo by J. Scott Applewhite of the Associated Press

With only 13 days left before the November election, the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is coming to grips with its dire circumstances -- making a series of advertising decisions in the last 48 hours to cut off incumbents who they believe can't win.

Since Monday, the NRCC has dropped advertising all together in Florida's 24th district, Minnesota's 6th district and Colorado's 4th district. All three seats are held by Republican incumbents who have badly damaged their own political prospects.

Faced with an unbelievably bad political environment and a HUGE fundraising disparity, House Republicans appear to have cut their ties with these three -- the leading edge of what could be a series of de-funding decisions of incumbents by House and Senate strategists.

(It's worth noting that a national party committee pulling advertising out of a state isn't always a bad sign. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has pulled its advertising in the Colorado Senate race, but that is a sign of their confidence of winning, not their acceptance of defeat.)

Even as the NRCC cuts loose incumbents, it is launching new ads in 12 districts -- all but two of which are currently held by Republican members.

Here's a look at the 12 districts, along with the percentage of the vote President Bush received in them in 2004 (BOLD denotes a Democratic-held seat):

Indiana's 3rd (68 percent)
Kentucky's 2nd (65 percent)
Louisiana's 6th (59 percent)
Minnesota's 3rd (51 percent)
Nebraska's 2nd (60 percent)
Nevada's 3rd (50 percent)
New Jersey's 3rd (51 percent)
New York's 26th (55 percent)
New York's 29th (56 percent)
Ohio's 2nd (64 percent)
Pennsylvania's 11th (47 percent)
Washington's 8th (48 percent)

Those numbers paint a clear picture. The NRCC is playing defense nearly everywhere --often in seats that, by rights, they should not have to spend a dime in. It's a testament to the difficulties facing the party in the final two weeks of the campaign. And, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 22, 2008; 5:47 PM ET
Categories:  House  
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Next: Parsing the (Tracking) Poll: McCain=Bush?

Comments

Bad times are still Hooverin over us.

With respect to the economic crisis, we have reached the endpoint of trickle down economics of the Bushies and Mccains. For the last 8 years, 600 billion a year has flowed toward oil companies et al and the rich, who have largely bottled the money up. That's almost 5 trillion dollars taken out of circulation. As a result, there is now not enough money left in circulation to support our economy. That's why they are implementing "economic stimulus" packages, which is code for printing more money. Of course, this is going to lead to inflation and devaluation of the dollar.
Money is like a great river that flows through our economy. If it becomes dammed up, like it is now, then the economy stagnates. Obama is the only candidate who seems to grasp this; I don't think Mccain or Palin are smart enough to know what is going on as they want to keep building the money dam.

Posted by: smedleyludlow | October 25, 2008 9:13 AM | Report abuse

At least Dana "BALTZ" Millbank tries to be entertaining! Cillizza hasn't a clue!

Posted by: mudbone | October 24, 2008 4:11 PM | Report abuse

At least Dana "BALTZ" Millbank tries to be entertaining! Cillizza hasn't a clue!

Posted by: mudbone | October 24, 2008 4:10 PM | Report abuse

What Karl Rove needs is a camera shot of McCain laying roses at his Granma's grave!

YA BETCHA!!

Posted by: mudbone | October 24, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

The people in Wheeling, West Virginia need to visit the people of Wisconsin for a meeting on lessons learned. There are two very different videos on the Washington Post site that are as different as night and day. People learn and grow most when they are away from their comfort zone. Somebody please, get these two states together before November 4.

Posted by: 14u2thinkabout | October 24, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Voters in these key states are going to WAKE UP this week and decide to vote for McCain and Sarah Palin - McCain's key demographics are saying they are undecided however they lean toward McCain.

In sharp contrast Obama is going to see nothing but erosion in his numbers as people realize they were completely out of their minds to even consider voting for him.

President McCain is the correct leader to bring the economy roaring back even better than before.

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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 24, 2008 7:44 AM | Report abuse

toritto said:
"America that is increasingly urban, cosmopolitan, multicultural, multiracial, no longer exclusively (or even mostly) Protestant, increasingly secular and increasingly woven into the fabric of an emerging and fulminant global civilization"

-Wishful-thinking, man! Multi-colored, yes but certinly not multi-cultural. Americans remain unbelieveably ignorant of other cultures and totally drunk on their own American-ness.
They're barely aware of existence of other countries and totally don't give a damn about them.


It's sad to see how people from other countries sacrifice their lives to come to the US for the sake of their kids, and then slave day and night to provide for them here. And all it takes is few years for these very same kids to lose their cultural identity and their language and become typical little American morons, playing video games all day and singing TV commercials by heart. And not a single damn book in the house.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 23, 2008 3:13 PM | Report abuse

DrainYou blogged:

"The economy is fundamentally sound"
-Herbert Hoover - October, 1931


"The fundamentals of our economy are strong"
-John McCain - Sept 15, 2008

**********

It is worth pointing out that McCain's strategy for dealing with the economic crisis is actually the same one as Hoover's!

That is, government fiscal austerity (his across-the-board spending freeze).

While perhaps a viable, even admirable, approach during boom times, when economic stimulus is not needed, during a severe recession it is a plan for disaster.

Hoover's austerity actually precipitated the Great Depression, conjuring it up out of what should have been a milder panic, and it was only heavy government spending that primed the pump and pulled the economy out at the end.

Voting for McCain is the surest route to a Great Depression repeat performance.

Posted by: careysub | October 23, 2008 3:13 PM | Report abuse

TexasTeaParty:

We don't convict people in America just because they're communists, you moron.

My grandparents were communists - I love them and am proud of them always. I dread to contemplate a world where the Bible-thumping, fascist thugs like you have any real power.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 23, 2008 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Hey texassteaparty,
You need to check yourself. Seriously you need help. Get back on your mrds dude.

Posted by: jfeliccia | October 23, 2008 2:07 PM | Report abuse

As Cillizza's currently too deep in the TANK to report right now:

Murtha's hold on House seat slips

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_594741.html

Posted by: info42 | October 23, 2008 12:32 PM | Report abuse

Ah Republicans!

Like father, like son. Meet Merritt Paulson, the offspring of Henry Paulson. I suppose naming his child "Legacy" would have been too blunt.

The 35-year-old Merritt owns the Portland Beavers, a minor-league baseball team, and the Portland Timbers, a USL First Division soccer squad. While his father is demanding $700 billion of our money to bail out the banks, Merritt wants his own little piece of our hide. He is insisting upon $85 million in public funds from the city of Portland to build a new sports complex for the Beavers and an upgrade on the Timbers' stadium.

Merritt is not the sole owner of the Beavers and Timbers; he has only an 80 percent stake. The man with the 20 percent stake is his father, Hammerin' Hank. If you can keep the bile out of your throat for a moment, you have got to give the Paulson family credit for cheek. You can almost imagine the scene: the Paulsons sitting around the dinner table, munching on bald eagle pate, ruminating on their $700 billion credit line and saying, "What's $85 million more?"

We haven't seen a family of rustlers like this since Frank and Jesse James. Keep in mind that Hank Paulson is worth $700 million on his own (he just loves that 700 number). So forget the obscenity of any sports owner having the temerity to ask for public funds for a sports stadium at a time when we are collectively bailing out the nation's banks. Forget the lunacy of making the case for $85 million from a city that, despite its lush rose gardens and micro-breweries, has 16 percent of kids living below the poverty line. Forget all humanitarian and economic considerations. The fact is that the cash between the cushions at the Paulson family compound could pay for the new stadium in Portland and yet Merritt wants more. These aren't masters of industry. They're grifters.

:-)

Posted by: toritto | October 23, 2008 11:25 AM | Report abuse

Murtha's seat is now within the margin of error because of the stupid things he's been saying recently.

But no report of this, eh?

T-A-N-K

Posted by: info42 | October 23, 2008 9:39 AM | Report abuse

**McCain has the skills to take on the lobbyists **

That shouldn't be too hard, most of them work for his campaign.

Posted by: dijetlo | October 23, 2008 8:45 AM | Report abuse

It would be amazing if Bush, I mean McCain, would stop concentrating the wealth in this country.

This bailout for banks has further redistributed middle class tax money to the rich.

There will be no middle class if McCain has his way. He has no concern for those making less than a quarter million a year.

Obama's tax plan is just Bill Clinton's plan that worked so well for the middle class.

When it's implemented it will force higher income groups to give back some of what they have received from us in the Bush tax cuts.

Maybe McCain will have to sell one of his seven houses.

Seriously, are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?

Posted by: seemstome | October 23, 2008 7:59 AM | Report abuse


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This country is lucky to have a guy like McCain still in the race and ready to lead the nation. McCain has the skills to take on the lobbyists and right the economy on a longterm basis.


The media is out of its mind this year.


McCain is correct - he is not Bush - the democrats have pushed a deception onto the American people - everytime I think of deception and lies now I think of Obama smiling from ear to ear during the debate to hide making any expression that he has been caught deceiving and lying.


Bush smeared McCain in South Carolina, the two do NOT get along.


When is it possible for the democrats to tell the truth? By the way THIS IS THE THIRD BUSH TERM. Bush 1 was from 1989-1993 and his son is on his second term. McCain deserves his turn to run this country properly and the media is going to be amazed at how solid a President McCain will be.

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.

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Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 23, 2008 7:41 AM | Report abuse

Give us some of that Ole Clinton socialism,
it's good enough for U.S.
Are You Better Off Now than You Were 8 Years Ago?
If not, then try a little light socialism.
It gave us the huge budget surpluses that Clinton left us.

Posted by: seemstome | October 23, 2008 7:08 AM | Report abuse

I do not think Lampson will win TX CD-22.

JD -

pls eml me at

mark_in_austin@operamail.com

all will be revealed.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 23, 2008 6:08 AM | Report abuse

Texas, the only ones deluded/deceived are the pathetic suicidal pseudo-American's like you. The Republican Party, while in control of Congress and the White House, destroyed every safety net, every bit of oversight, and ran the "free trade express" right into a ditch. We have lost some 4.5 million hi-tech jobs, outsourced around 35% of our industrial capacity, and doubled the size of the national debt. It's now more than 10 trillion dollars and that doesn't even begin to scratch the real amount of unfunded debt that will come due if the economy crashes, like everyone now expects it to. That unfunded debt amounts to more than 56 trillion *additional* dollars. All of this, every stinking bit of it, can be traced to this White House and the Republican Congress. And you squawk about "socialism"? Socialism is the fuzzy minded one world schemes practiced by the free traders and globalization nuts that underpin Bush and McCain. They call themselves "Neoconservatives", but they are actually old fashioned Stalinist, big government, big debt, big brother, central planning communists. Compared to them, Obama is a Reaganite and the present day Democratic Party are fiscal conservatives. Now, this next year you WILL loose your job. If you are retired, that is going to disappear, too. If you are on Social Security, the benefits will be cut and cut and cut. Your neighbors and family will loose their homes. Millions of your fellow citizens will end up in homeless shelters and soup lines. The government will be completely helpless to do much of anything because George Bush and your Republican's took this nations treasure and blew the whole d*mn thing in 8 years. The Democrats, with a bare majority for the past 18 months have tried repeatedly to impose some kind of fiscal sanity and have been thwarted at every turn. Now, there simply isn't any money for WPA or similar make work programs; what you would call "socialism", but everyone else will think of as the only job they can get, the only thing standing between them and their family and starvation. Disease and violence will spread across this country like a plague. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse have been loosed by you and that pack of fools you imposed upon us. If, by some nightmarish scenario, you attacks against Mr. Obama succeed and john McCain is elected, this country will cease to exist before the end of his first term. All of this, every bit of it, is YOUR FAULT and the fault of insane made in China pseudo-patriots like you. Have the humility, especially in light of the damage you have done, to simply shut up and go away. The rest of us have a country to rebuild and will be too busy to other with you, unless you get in our way... then, God help you.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | October 23, 2008 1:29 AM | Report abuse

OBAMA is a SOCIALIST.....

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjRkOWUzMTVjMTU5YjIxYmQyMjY3YjU0NWJkY2QxZjY=

We share the belief that education is the motor-force of revolution ~ William Ayers in Venezuela to Chavez 11/06

Teaching invites transformations, it urges revolutions small and large. ~ William Ayers in Venezuela to Chavez 11/06
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTQzMDIxZjlmMTM5N2ZhNzlmY2IyZDYxMWQ5NjQ2NDM=

MEET MIKE KLONSKY - works in Obama's campaign
- Communist / Father is convicted communist
- Small School WOrkshop co-founder
- visited CHINA many times in the 70's
- a mentor to OBAMA

“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” John Stuart Mill called conservatives “the stupid party.” For countless American intellectuals, including many eventual giants of the Right, disdain for bourgeois values led to a ruinous infatuation with the Soviet Union — the audacity of their hope for perfecting mankind blinding them to the unremitting misery wrought by communist ideology.

In 1951, the legendary liberal Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas insisted that, though communism might be a threat abroad, the movement in this country was a mere “bogeyman” that had been “thoroughly exposed” and “crippled as a political force.” We now know that even as he wrote those words, communists had covertly infiltrated the U.S. government at high levels and that, as a political force, the movement was just getting started. The Klonskys and Ayers were still on the horizon.

Now today’s elites, including some prominent conservative intellectuals, thumb their noses once again at the stupid party. They look longingly at the putatively cerebral Obama, a fit more to their liking even if his politics are, they hope, just a tad wayward. But the Leftist revolutionaries are under no such illusions. In Obama, they see the fulfillment of their dreams to remake America. As Klonsky has explained, “My own support for Obama is … a recognition that the Obama campaign has become a rallying point for young activists and offers hope for rebuilding the civil rights and antiwar coalitions that have potential to become a real critical force in society.”

So get ready for Klonsky’s “social justice.” It’s what Barack Obama calls “change.”

Posted by: TexasTeaParty | October 23, 2008 1:05 AM | Report abuse

OBAMA is the FRAUD
YES - let's have an ANTI-AMERICAN investigation. I DARE YOU.

FACT: http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTQzMDIxZjlmMTM5N2ZhNzlmY2IyZDYxMWQ5NjQ2NDM=

Communist and William Ayers Partner, MIKE KLONKSY ran OBAMA's CAMPAIGN BLOG.


http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTQzMDIxZjlmMTM5N2ZhNzlmY2IyZDYxMWQ5NjQ2NDM=

PEOPLE - WAPO and the other MSM are LYING to you!!!!


OBAMA is hiding who he really is and the MSM are in on it....

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTQzMDIxZjlmMTM5N2ZhNzlmY2IyZDYxMWQ5NjQ2NDM=


McCain, exonerated from the Keating 5 and a long time member of the Senate TRIED to WANR everyone about the HOUSING COLLAPSE...

OBAMA and his DEMOCRATIC cronies, MADE it HAPPEN... and wanted it to happen.... They are hoping this will create the TIPPING POINT needed to bring about the CHANGE they want and that CHANGE is 100% pure socialism.... they want to do away with CAPITALISM...all of it.

....and it's working.... unless people start demanding to know more about OBAMA past associates and his records from COLUMBIA U. where he originally met Ayers.What do you think Ayers and his sort have been teaching for the last 30 years.....CAPITALISM BAD, SOCIALISM GOOD

CAPITALISM BAD, SOCIALISM GOOD
economy is bad...when it wasn't, bush bad
~ this is pure Saul Alinksy playbook

CAPITALISM BAD, SOCIALISM GOOD


This has been a long term plan. Obama was picked to play his part. He is the real SOCIALIST MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE.


The American people are being DECEIVED.....well, most are.

Posted by: TexasTeaParty | October 23, 2008 12:56 AM | Report abuse

OK, any other Republican incumbents feel like calling for an investigation to see which of their colleagues are anti-American?

No… I thought not.

Posted by: FlownOver | October 23, 2008 12:09 AM | Report abuse

test

Posted by: drofwarc | October 22, 2008 11:46 PM | Report abuse

Imagine the extra ads the RNC could run if they only could attire Sarah Palin at the thrift shop. Hey, maybe she could go shopping with Joe the plumber! What great PR!

For those who haven't seen the video of Sarah answering a 2nd grader's question of what a Vice President does (Palin excitedly says, "they get to run the Senate"), I have the longer version posted. In it, she also incredulously points to being the "regulator of gas and oil," bragging that she has more executive experience than Senator Obama.

Grab some popcorn, watch the video, and share it.

http://scootmandubious.blogspot.com/2008/10/see-sarah-runthe-senate.html

Posted by: scootmandubious | October 22, 2008 11:14 PM | Report abuse

--" And, it's going to get worse before it gets better. "--

Yea, well the same could be said of the economy after the Republican's "Katrina-ed it." I'm glad the misery is being spread around a little. Despite all the whining - they have no one to blame but themselves. I mean: dude, you just lost control of the House - firing attorney's because they arn't "loyal Bushies" is probably a stupid thing to do.

Sarah - 150K would pay off the mortagage of a laid-off hard-working citizen. Or didn't you know how much was being spent?

Michele - 90% of the public think the country is on the wrong track, hundreds of billions of dollars are on the line - probably not a good time to start up with the 'they hate America' tripe.

Posted by: DonJasper | October 22, 2008 11:02 PM | Report abuse

wpost4112 posts a long excerpt from Zogby, ending with "[Obama] is tied among NASCAR fans.”

You could knock me over with a feather.
=================


I thought that was a most curious statistic.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Our economy is structurally sound for the long term"
-George W Bush - Feb 11, 2008


"The American people can remain confident in the soundness and the resilience of our financial system"
-Henry Paulson - Sept 15, 2008


"The economy is fundamentally sound"
-Herbert Hoover - October, 1931


"The fundamentals of our economy are strong"
-John McCain - Sept 15, 2008


McCain does not have the ability to fix this economic crisis. After declaring the fundamentals of the economy strong, McCain created a political circus in Washington by mucking up bailout negotiations; a deplorable campaign stunt, considering he and his political cronies helped cause the current meltdown.


It was McCain and his economic adviser Phil Gramm who pushed for the deregulation that helped lead to the banking crisis, and it was McCain's crony Rick Davis who had deep lobbyist ties to Freddie Mac. Don't be fooled by McCain's economic grandstanding because the reality is his policies and principles will only exacerbate our financial hardships.


McCain is being deceitful with his sudden populist message and support for regulation; his economic policies favor our nation's wealthy elite.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4egXbhSOhk
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 22, 2008 10:40 PM | Report abuse

I wish I had the list to know how close the IL-6 is. Tammy Duckworth lost by 2 points two years ago. A veteran, she was smeared and lied about by Peter Roskam. Now he is doing it again against Jill Morgenthaler, also a vet. More at hadnuf.com.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ends2-v8yv0

Posted by: bilco5 | October 22, 2008 10:26 PM | Report abuse

Is the DCCC sending money to Mahoney, or letting him solve his own problems?

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 10:03 PM
**************************
As a Democrat I say, hopefully, not. We can afford to lose one hypocrite.

Posted by: multiplepov | October 22, 2008 10:22 PM | Report abuse

wpost4112 posts a long excerpt from Zogby, ending with "[Obama] is tied among NASCAR fans.”

You could knock me over with a feather.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 10:11 PM | Report abuse

Is the DCCC sending money to Mahoney, or letting him solve his own problems?

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 22, 2008 10:03 PM | Report abuse

We are witnessing the end of "small town" values, Joe Sixpack, Joe the Plumber and the dumbing down of America.

Ah, yes, the sainted, uneducated, high tattoo-to-tooth ratio, willfully ignorant, truck-driving, Bud-swilling, Bible-thumping trailer-park trash that will fall for ANYTHING hitched to a picture of baby Jesus. The true, authentic, beating heart of American greatness. Give me a break.

What the “small town values” crowd sees is an America that is increasingly urban, cosmopolitan, multicultural, multiracial, no longer exclusively (or even mostly) Protestant, increasingly secular and increasingly woven into the fabric of an emerging and fulminant global civilization--and it scares the living bug dung out of them, because it means that things are going to change very fast.

The world doesn't belong to Baptists, there's nothing anybody can do to stop it, and they (and their children) are going to have to live in it.

In other words, they're reactionary. Sleep tight. Don't let the Barack Bugs bite.

Posted by: toritto | October 22, 2008 9:37 PM | Report abuse

People of lesser ability that Senator Obama give up - they admit defeat. Imagine Sidney Poitier in "To Sir With Love" - this is the type of leadership America needs today. .................

http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/21/senator-obama-to-sir-with-love-2/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 22, 2008 9:32 PM | Report abuse

So what the November election amount's to re. congressional seats, if the figures are correct, is that in this supposedly bad economy (which is the #1 issue with the voters) the American voters will vote in, and give a greater majority to, to the very political party that is primarily responsible for the current financial crisis that they have to pay $700 billion bucks to to bail the banks out for. Unbelieveable! It was the Democratic Socialist Party and their leaders like Criss Dodd, Barney Frank, Maxine Waters, and Chuck Schumer that forced the banks, Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, etc, to give mortgage loans to people who couldn't pay it back with threats of law suits for discrimination, red-lining, and racist lending practices. When President Bush and the Republicans tried to get bills passed in 2003 and again in 2005 in order to try to put a check on these bad loans, EVERY DEMOCRAT IN CONGRESS VOTED AGAINST BOTH BILLS, INCLUDING BARACK OBAMA AND JOE BIDEN, AND EVERY REPUBLICAN VOTED TO TRY TO PUT SOME CONTROLS ON THESE PHONY LOANS!!! Both bills failed to pass because of the Democrats opposition. Cris Dodd, Barney Frank, Maxine Waters, and Chuck Schumer even forced these financial institutions to accept these peoples welfare check and the value of their food stamps as equity. Obama's Acorn gang even picketed in front of these lending institutions to force them to give these loans. And now after the do-do has hit the fan the American voters will put into more political power the very party that screwed them to begin with out of $700 billion bucks, and who have been the primary reason for the financial collapse and the resulting bad economy. If they do, and it looks like they will, the American voters will be the dumbest on the planet and they'll deserve what they get, and that won't be pretty after these Socialists get to run everything without any checks or balances.

Posted by: armpeg | October 22, 2008 9:13 PM | Report abuse

officermancuso: Visiting my daughter in Southeast Florida.

:-)

13 days!!

Posted by: toritto | October 22, 2008 9:11 PM | Report abuse

You should look at, YES, the South Carolina first. Linda Ketner stands a good chance of sending Henry Brown, the self named "Republican Work Horse", out to pasture.

Posted by: waterchemist | October 22, 2008 8:56 PM | Report abuse

So, does the silence of the Republicans mean that they've given up, or are they caucusing at a country club?

My guess is that the winning item is behind curtain #2.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 22, 2008 8:29 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: soonerthought | October 22, 2008 8:28 PM | Report abuse

malis wrote, in part, "Although his positions are certainly more liberal than mine, my judgment is that Obama has a rational pragmatism (the ability to change his mind based on new information) that would allow him to consider other points of view, and an innate intelligence and moral core that would guide sound decisions."

The whole thing was good, but I thought that part was especially good.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 22, 2008 8:23 PM | Report abuse

Nice to know that while some things change (i.e., President Obama), some things always stay the same. Like ol' King o’Zouk (or as I fondly think of him, Kouk), hanging around The Fix for years, always with the same supreme self-confidence and unrivaled record of never once accurately predicting an electoral contest. Even then he talked about his new Porsche and Hot Super-Model wife (of course, forgot to mention both were pictures torn from magazines and taped to the wall of his basement bedroom).

His inimitable style always includes finding any obscure poll number that supports him that day, or if he can’t find any, explaining why the polls are meaningless. Back in 2006 as a swaggering stenographer for Karl Rove, Kouk kept repeating until election day, the prediction that all the polls were wrong and the Rs would keep the Senate and pick up seats in the House. I remember his statement that if he was wrong he’d humbly eat crow and politely apologize to everyone else. To his credit, he was back online the next day, and apologized, courteously and meekly. It was a good three weeks until the ‘ol Kouk was back, now insulting Hillary Clinton.

He was also known for insulting McCain and stating there was no doubt Giuliani would be the next President. He stayed in full Clinton insult mode as long as she was leading, then suddenly switched to a Hillary supporter and directed his insults to Obama. He stuck with Giuliani until the Florida humiliation, than gave up on the R primary and switched full time to anti-Obama talking points parroted from talk radio, anonymous emails, and fringe websites (by the way, wouldn’t it save time if they just numbered them? Then Kouk could just write “NObama, TP#4! #6! And double #12!!” without again forcing everyone to wade through his repetitive dreck).

I’m fighting overconfidence, but there’s little that gives more assurance of an Obama win than the ‘ol Kouk confidence of an Obama loss. So Kouk, are you going to make the same promise you made in October 2006? I look forward to the three weeks of quiet and relative sanity.

As I’ve said here before, I thought all three final candidates had the potential to be decent Presidents but, as a middle-aged, retired military, decidedly non-cultish white guy, I’ve favored Obama ever since it became obvious Joe Biden wouldn't be an option (Biden/Obama was my early favored ticket). Although his positions are certainly more liberal than mine, my judgment is that Obama has a rational pragmatism (the ability to change his mind based on new information) that would allow him to consider other points of view, and an innate intelligence and moral core that would guide sound decisions.

So everyone, don’t be satisfied with what you're told...please make up your mind based not on someone else's distortions, but on YOUR OWN understanding of the ability, intelligence, knowledge, views, positions, temperament, judgment, and moral strength of the candidates.

Posted by: malis | October 22, 2008 8:09 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: novamatt | October 22, 2008 8:07 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of polls and House elections, really wish there were more reliable polling of House elections going on, or that the DCCC and the NRCC would start emailing me their polls.

House GOP insiders are telling USN&WR that they could lose up to 34 seats: . That's huge. That would put the D's more than 100 seats ahead, and mean that the R caucus that existed just a couple years ago would have lost almost a third of its members.

Posted by: novamatt | October 22, 2008 8:06 PM | Report abuse

toritto's back! where have you been?

Posted by: officermancuso | October 22, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

It's looking grim for the elephant.

US financial markets tanked again.

I suspect we now have some beginning sense of the dimensions of the financial mess on our hands but no clue as to how this will damage mom, pop, and Joe Plumber. Damage, though, is surely coming.

We seem to be in a kind of a negative feedback loop right now. Perhaps there's a hint of truth to the conservative cry that at this point US markets are reacting negatively to the prospect of an Obama presidency (though the correlation with tanking of markets in Europe and Asia seems tighter).

Is there anyone left on earth who thinks that Karl Rove had a good plan for establishing a long-term Republican majority in the USA?

Posted by: officermancuso | October 22, 2008 7:40 PM | Report abuse

OMG! He's BLACK!

that BLACK librul socialist communist trotskyite anarchist nihilist terrorist friend of terrorists muslim islamo fascist celebrity elitist hater of america disciple of Rev Wright reader of Malcolm X Harvard grad named HUSSEIN is gonna be President of the United States of America.

Oh Happy Day!

Heehee.....(did I forget anything?)

Go Rays!

Posted by: toritto | October 22, 2008 7:37 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: DDAWD | October 22, 2008 7:27 PM | Report abuse

Money can't always buy you love.
In the middle of some bitter exchanges, creative ways win the day as I wrote today in 'Creative not Bitter, Yes We Carve, Halloween 2008' on 'Serge the Concierge.
Here's the link
http://www.sergetheconcierge.com/2008/10/creative-not-bitter-yes-we-carve-halloween-2008.html

Serge
'The French Guy from New Jersey'
P.S:
My first chance to vote in the US

Posted by: info49 | October 22, 2008 7:24 PM | Report abuse

multiplepew, said "Thus did Mr. Cillizza helpfully provide all the information you're looking for."

mnteng says "You didn't read The Fix's posts..."

Nope, you missed my point. No google search on the losers names will bring up this page where Chris zaps them.

Posted by: tjallen | October 22, 2008 7:05 PM | Report abuse

Zouk - your polling posts are tedious. I have to go double-check your numbers (they're cherry-picked, incorrect, and/or out of date 99% of the time), and it gets boring refuting them day in and day out.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 22, 2008 6:58 PM | Report abuse

Chris said: Since Monday, the NRCC has dropped advertising all together in Florida's 24th district, Minnesota's 6th district and Colorado's 4th district. All three seats are held by Republican incumbents who have badly damaged their own political prospects.

Chris can you as an honest reporter even give us the NAMES of these losers-to-be? You name the districts. oh but don't inform your readers who the miscreants are? Poor and partisan as usual from you.
*******************************************
A helpful hint: If words are blue and underlined, they're links. If you run your mouse over the link and click, you'll open up a new article. Each article for the districts listed give you a full picture of the abandoned Republican. Thus did Mr. Cillizza helpfully provide all the information you're looking for.

Hope this helps.

Posted by: multiplepov | October 22, 2008 6:58 PM | Report abuse

tjallen writes:
"Chris can you as an honest reporter even give us the NAMES of these losers-to-be? You name the districts. oh but don't inform your readers who the miscreants are? Poor and partisan as usual from you."

You're kidding, right? You didn't read The Fix's posts about Bachmann (MN-6) or Feeney (FL-24)? Granted, CC doesn't write much about Musgrave (CO-4), but that district has been on The Line for a while.

Posted by: mnteng | October 22, 2008 6:55 PM | Report abuse

KOZ,

Try not to show your ignorance. Zogby International is a well-respected pollster, whom you've quoted here before. Their Interactive poll is a piece of crap.

Read, learn, repeat.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

Posted by: mnteng | October 22, 2008 6:49 PM | Report abuse

Chris said: Since Monday, the NRCC has dropped advertising all together in Florida's 24th district, Minnesota's 6th district and Colorado's 4th district. All three seats are held by Republican incumbents who have badly damaged their own political prospects.

Chris can you as an honest reporter even give us the NAMES of these losers-to-be? You name the districts. oh but don't inform your readers who the miscreants are? Poor and partisan as usual from you.

Posted by: tjallen | October 22, 2008 6:47 PM | Report abuse

Zouk whimpers:
Let me guess, these are the out-of-work ACORN volunteers that are waiting for their check from THE ONE.

--------------------------

LOL. Poor Zookie.....can't deal with polls not to his liking.

The crowds here today in Richmond were extraordinary....hardly a McCain bumper sticker or yard sign to be seen in this Republican town....just Obama.

The tsunami approaches.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Wait, the first post was from zogby about how McCain is losing and that was great info, but if Zogby says McCain is winning then he is a shill.

I see. Same as usual.

And don't forget Sarah Palin is inexperienced but Obama is not.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 6:42 PM | Report abuse

Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)


Let me guess, these are the out-of-work ACORN volunteers that are waiting for their check from THE ONE.

Meanwhile back in the real world, there are reports that O"reilly has been signed to another contract. his ratings are the tops in cable and even beat couric most nights.

On the left hand, we have Olbermann who was recently demoted for acting even too loony for MSDNC. CNN reports he has had a small TV installed in his desk so he can watch O'Reilly and try to figure out why no one likes him. his publicist has explained that he has a back-up plan involving dancing with the stars. chris Mathews is expected to be his partner, I mean life-mate.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 6:40 PM | Report abuse

Geez, KOZ. I know you're looking for data to support your hypothesis, but surely you can do better than drag out the numbers from the crappy Zogby Interactive polls.

Posted by: mnteng | October 22, 2008 6:40 PM | Report abuse

My Congressman Rep. Cazayoux is looking better and better with each passing day. This week we held a rally for him in a less upscale area of Baton Rouge headlined by House Whip Rep. Clyburn.
Lots of African-American voters there, and all clearly behind Rep. Cazayoux. He's now doing what he needs to in the community to make himself accessible and popular with his constituency. He'll be here at another rally we're holding for him Saturday. I was doubtful about his chances at the beginning of the cycle. But Democrats should feel good now.

Posted by: jdunph1 | October 22, 2008 6:37 PM | Report abuse

Poor, poor Zouk:


CNN/TIME: NV, NC, OH, VA, WV (10/19-21)

By Eric Dienstfrey

CNN / TIME / ORC
10/19-21/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Nevada 700 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46

North Carolina 644 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47

Ohio 737 LV, 3.5%
Obama 50, McCain 46

Virginia 647 LV, 4%
Obama 54, McCain 44

West Virginia 674 LV, 4%
McCain 53, Obama 44

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

Zouk hyperventilates:

This evidence furthers my hypothesis and is irrefutable evidence that the messiah has peaked too early and is on his way to a loss.

--------------

More hype than thesis.
Yawn.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, Chris. These process posts are really interesting to me. While it's not too much of a surprise to see the NRCC go up in the open NY-26 and KY-2 seats, I'm surprised that Souder (IN-3) and Schmidt (OH-2) need help.

Less than half of the new targets are on The Line ...

Posted by: mnteng | October 22, 2008 6:29 PM | Report abuse

The lynchpin:

Mason dixon poll in VA:

10/20-21 625 LV Mac 45 Obama 47

THE ONe sinking like a stone in the last state that matters. Kind of like the CLash used to be.

Zogby in NH:

10/17-20 466 Lv Mac 46 Obama 47

some landlside there moonbats.

This evidence furthers my hypothesis and is irrefutable evidence that the messiah has peaked too early and is on his way to a loss.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 6:25 PM | Report abuse

Keep drinking the Kool-aid:

More polls:

NC
Survey USA
10/18-20 627 LV Mac 47 Obama 47

MO
Suffolk
10/16-19 600 Lv Mac 45 Obama 44

OH
Zogby
10/17-20 991 LV Mac 49 Obama 47

NV
Zogby
10/17-20 670 LV Mac 52 Obama 44

CO
Zogby
10/17-20 951 LV Mac 48 Obama 48

NM
Zogby
10/17-20 534 LV Mac 46 Obama 46

any questions moonbats???

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 22, 2008 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Very latest poll: Obama up by 4 in Ohio.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Chris - What's with that same cloudy picture? Proof of The Fix and the MSM's right-wing bias - the Capitol should have a rainbow and clear skies over it now that wing-nuts like Michelle Bachmann are about to be tossed onto the trash heap.

Posted by: bondjedi | October 22, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Zogby:

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 22, 2008 6:10 PM | Report abuse

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