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Republican retirements mount in House

The decision by South Carolina Rep. Henry Brown to retire brings Republican retirements to 14, a number that, if it continues to rise in the coming months, could curtail the expected GOP gains in the House in November.

While much of the focus for the last month (or so) has been on Democrats' retirement problems -- set off by a quartet of announcements in swing and Republican-leaning districts over the last month -- a broad look at the open seat playing field suggests more parity in terms of the two parties' opportunities and vulnerabilities than conventional wisdom suggests.

Republicans currently carry 14 open seats while Democrats have 10. Each side has three seats won by the other party's presidential candidate in 2008; for Democrats, that's Louisiana's 3rd district and Tennessee's 6th and 8th districts while for Republicans it's Delaware's at-large seat, Illinois' 10th district and Pennsylvania's 6th district.

Of the remaining 11 seats for Republicans, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) won between 50 and 55 percent in three (Florida's 12th, Michigan's 2nd and California's 19th) and between 55 and 60 percent in three more (Kansas' 4th, Oklahoma's 5th and South Carolina's 1st).

Those numbers are roughly equivalent to Democrats' current retirement lineup with two districts where President Obama took between 50 and 55 percent of the vote (Kansas' 3rd and Washington's 3rd) and two more (New Hampshire's 2nd and Pennsylvania's 7th) where he won between 55 and 60 percent.

All told, Republicans are defending nine open seats that McCain either lost or won with less than 60 percent of the vote in 2008 while Democrats are on defense in seven seats lost by Obama or won with less than 60 percent. (A full list of open seats and presidential performance is after the jump.)

The even-ness of those numbers belie the sense in Washington that Democrats are losing altitude rapidly -- the party switch of Rep. Parker Griffith (D to R) being a touchstone in that argument -- and are headed for major losses in November.

To be sure, Republicans still have history on their side. The first midterm election of a president's first four years in office is traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party. In the last four first term, midterm elections the president's party has lost 26 seats (1982), eight seats (1990), 54 seats (1994) and gained eight seats (2002). (The 2002 midterms were anomalous due in large part to the lingering impact of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.)

Democrats' ranks have also not been thinned over the last few elections by a series of losses in the same way Republicans experienced, meaning, theoretically, that there are more Democratic members who may be looking for a way out in November as they contemplate a life beyond Congress.

And, candidate quality does matter so recruitment, which has favored Republicans thanks to the tilt of the national playing field, is important in places like New Hampshire's 2nd district and Pennsylvania's 7th district among others.

As we wrote this morning, the next month will be critical for House Democrats. If there are only a handful of retirements -- and a majority of those come in non-competitive districts -- then the talk of an avalanche of departures will quiet and the nerves of jangling members may well be calmed.

What a close examination of the current open seat landscape reveals, however, is that the talk of a doomsday scenario for House Democrats simply hasn't materialized yet. Are they likely headed to double-digit losses come November? Yes. But, talk of a switch in House control is, at least at this point, premature.

Republican Open Seats (14)
Delaware's at-large (Obama 62 percent)
California's 19th (McCain 52 percent)
Florida's 12th (McCain 50 percent)
Georgia's 9th (McCain 75 percent)
Illinois' 10th (Obama 61 percent)
Kansas' 1st (McCain 69 percent)
Kansas' 4th (McCain 58 percent)
Michigan's 2nd (McCain 51 percent)
Missouri's 7th (McCain 63 percent)
Oklahoma's 5th (McCain 59 percent)
Pennsylvania's 6th (Obama 58 percent)
South Carolina's 1st (McCain 56 percent)
South Carolina's 3rd (McCain 64 percent)
Tennessee's 3rd (McCain 62 percent)

Democratic Open Seats (10)
Alabama's 7th (Obama 74 percent)
Florida's 17th (Obama 87 percent)
Hawaii's 1st (Obama 70 percent)
Kansas' 3rd (Obama 51 percent)
Louisiana's 3rd (McCain 61 percent)
New Hampshire's 2nd (Obama 56 percent)
Pennsylvania's 7th (Obama 56 percent)
Tennessee's 6th (McCain 62 percent)
Tennessee's 8th (McCain 56 percent)
Washington's 3rd (Obama 53 percent)

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 4, 2010; 11:23 AM ET
Categories:  House  
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Comments

This article is misleading. The retiring Republicans lose nothing because they are NOT in power. What makes the Democrat retirements significant is the Democrats are in power and control committees.

Posted by: myfreedomfirst | January 8, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

It's all well and good to just read what someone tells you and not look into it. Just to clear things up a bit...this from a USA Today article from 1/4/2010:

"Here's a list of House members who have announced retirements. We've indicated their congressional districts and have noted those who are seeking higher office:

Democrats
1) Neil Abercrombie, Hawaii 1 (Governor)
2) Brian Baird, Wash. 3
3) Artur Davis, Ala. 7 (Governor)
4) Bart Gordon, Tenn. 6
5) Paul Hodes, N.H. 2 (Senate)
6) Charlie Melancon, La. 3 (Senate)
7) Kendrick Meek, Fla.17 (Senate)
8) Dennis Moore, Kan. 3
9) Joe Sestak, Pa. 7 (Senate)
10) John Tanner, Tenn. 8
11) Robert Wexler, Fla.19

Republicans
1) J. Gresham Barrett S.C. 3 (Governor)
2) Roy Blunt, Mo. 7 (Senate)
3) Henry Brown, S.C. 1
3) Mike Castle, Del. At-Large (Senate)
4) Nathan Deal, Ga. 9 (Governor)
5) Mary Fallin, Okla. 5 (Governor)
6) Jim Gerlach, Pa. 6
7) Pete Hoekstra, Mich.2 (Governor)
8) Mark Kirk, Ill. 10 (Senate)
9) Jerry Moran, Kan. 1 (Senate)
10) Adam Putnam, Fla. 12 (Agriculture Commissioner)
11) George Radanovich, Calif. 19
12) Todd Tiahrt, Kan. 4 (Senate)
13) Zach Wamp, Tenn. 3 (Governor)"

So, from this old list, of the 11 Democrats leaving office, 6 are bidding on higher jobs. Of the 13 Republicans leaving office, 11 are looking to a higher office. Dodd, Dorgan, and Ritter have to be added to the Democrat list (just in, LG Cherry from MI too), none of whom are upgrading their careers.

How the media does spin...

Posted by: Jackbit | January 6, 2010 3:07 PM | Report abuse

kwoods2:

Did you ever hear Abby Johnson on the Laura Ingram show?

Posted by: JakeD | January 5, 2010 4:17 PM | Report abuse

The point is, her main effort was to bring CONTRACEPTION to women. And that is the main effort of Planned Parenthood as well.
__________________________________________________
The former Planned Parenthood director Abby Johnson, on November 2, 2009, after eight years working at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Bryan, Texas, including two years as its director,

"According to Johnson, the non-profit was struggling under the weight of a tough economy, and changing it’s business model from one that pushed prevention, to one that focused on abortion."

"The money wasn’t in family planning, the money wasn’t in prevention, the money was in abortion and so I had a problem with that,' said Johnson."

Posted by: kwoods2 | January 5, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Yes, ctcb05, then we're going to force you to have an abortion and covert to islam. It's all part of the plan.

Posted by: nodebris | January 5, 2010 1:05 PM | Report abuse

If the democrats give citizenship to all of the illegal aliens, then there will be no landslide for the republicans.

Thus, see this issue come up nxt in 2010 after health care is passed. It's going to be ugly.

Posted by: ctcb05 | January 5, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

"how i CAN BECOME AN ILLEGAL, ALTHOUGH i WAS BORN AND BREAD IN WHAT WAS THE usa, SO THAT i CAN GET EVERYTHING WITHOUT COST, MEDS, HOSPITALS, DOCTOR TREATMENT WITHOUT CO PAYS."

First you attend elementary school and learn to spell and capitalize first words of sentences, proper nouns and not capitoloze everything else. Then you need to go eat some BREAD.
Then pickle your brain further by watching Hannity and Beck some more. In addition to the benefits above you could have also bought a car at the junkyard and cashed it in using "Cash for Clunkers" Except the minor details that you had to have the title 12 months prior to the program and proof of insurance. Other than that Hannity again exposed another loophole that is dominating the country, in fairy-tale land, under the right conditions that don't currently exist.

What specific loophole is an illegal using that gives them all this free stuff? If that loophole exist. what explicitly keeps you from using it?

Posted by: jerelj | January 5, 2010 7:57 AM | Report abuse

Very well said, it's nice to see the occasional post from a rational, reasonable person who thinks for themselves.

The problem isn't so much that the far left and far right equally have nothing but their own limited ideology at heart, it's their complete inability to recognize moderation and centrism and label it as such.
To someone on the far right, anyone who isn't equally ultra-conservative is a raging liberal tree-hugging Birkenstock-wearing commie pinko terrorist-lover...and to someone on the far left, anyone who isn't ultra-liberal is a raging fascist racist pollution-loving gun-toting Klan member Jesus freak.

The fact is that even our own President is pretty much smack dab in the center, if not slightly leaning towards the left.
Does that matter to the right-wingnuts who want to paint him as a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.
Does it matter to the left-wingnuts that he's NOT a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.

Extremists want their way or the highway, even though their way only works for them and the handful of lemmings who choose to think like them because they're too scared to accept that not everyone is like them, and that's OK.
It takes much more maturity and strength to say "you and I differ on points A and B but we should at least find a common ground."

I'm glad our President is smarter than most of the raving lunatics that populate the media, these message boards, and some political offices.

Posted by: JMGinPDX

------------------

No comment, just felt that your comment needed a repost. Well said.

Reposted by js_edit

------------------
Just wanted to repost the above repost... maybe our politicians will realize that most of the country is in the middle (and maybe even slightly left of center, considering that the current Republican Party no longer resembles the Republican Party I grew up with.) Seeing those gun-toting anti-government right-wing morons at the town hall meetings where Obama spoke made me just as ill as those gun-toting anti-government left-wing morons of the 60s. I just hope others feel the same.

Posted by: apple597 | January 5, 2010 4:49 AM | Report abuse

Sláinte, BB.

Posted by: nodebris | January 5, 2010 1:14 AM | Report abuse

@nodebris - That post was pure poetry. Well done. Very well done.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 5, 2010 12:10 AM | Report abuse

"how i CAN BECOME AN ILLEGAL, ALTHOUGH i WAS BORN AND BREAD IN WHAT WAS THE usa, SO THAT i CAN GET EVERYTHING WITHOUT COST, MEDS, HOSPITALS, DOCTOR TREATMENT WITHOUT CO PAYS."

1) Leave the country.

2) Become a citizen of another country.

3) Renounce your citizenship orally and in writing at a US Embassy in your new country.

4) Re-enter the country illegally.

There you go. Good luck with all those free benefits you imagine will ensue.

Posted by: nodebris | January 5, 2010 12:07 AM | Report abuse

IT IS US INFRMD FLKS WHO KNW THIS...BUT U HAVE THE OKEY DOKE REPPUB MEDIA TRYIN TO PUSH THE BS THT THE DEMS R IN TRBLE....WEB NEWS NEEDS TO BECOME THE NORM BECUZ THEN THE BS WON'T BE THER!

MEDIA HAS THER NOSE UP THE REPUB NEWSASS MACHINE...SOMETHIN LIKE TOKEN BOY STEELE....KISSIN THE MASTERS ASS!!

BUZZARDSKORNER

Posted by: Hheeaatt | January 4, 2010 11:58 PM | Report abuse

"Vote them all out for NOT !! representing the people they don't deserve another day in there as it is !!"

This is what people say when they're too lazy to figure out who is representing their interests well and who not.

Vote them all out, and who do you think you'll be voting in? What makes you think the new crop will be more virtuous just because they're new? History suggests otherwise.

Democracy is hard work. It's more than just infinitely toggling between one set of scoundrels and another.

Posted by: nodebris | January 4, 2010 11:56 PM | Report abuse

kwoods2 asks
"Redistricting Michele Bachmann's district is the only hope Democrats have?"


No; I would describe it more as a wish Democrats have. It is the inverse wish that Republicans have, of course. Tom Delay & the Texas Legislature did some rather creative redistricting in Texas not too many years ago. Personally, I think redistricting should be handed to non-political commissions, but given that its legally in the hands of the legislature, this is a dream that I surely must let die.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 10:58 PM | Report abuse

Sure Chris. You go with that.

Posted by: Cutaway | January 4, 2010 10:12 PM | Report abuse

Very well said, it's nice to see the occasional post from a rational, reasonable person who thinks for themselves.

The problem isn't so much that the far left and far right equally have nothing but their own limited ideology at heart, it's their complete inability to recognize moderation and centrism and label it as such.
To someone on the far right, anyone who isn't equally ultra-conservative is a raging liberal tree-hugging Birkenstock-wearing commie pinko terrorist-lover...and to someone on the far left, anyone who isn't ultra-liberal is a raging fascist racist pollution-loving gun-toting Klan member Jesus freak.

The fact is that even our own President is pretty much smack dab in the center, if not slightly leaning towards the left.
Does that matter to the right-wingnuts who want to paint him as a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.
Does it matter to the left-wingnuts that he's NOT a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.

Extremists want their way or the highway, even though their way only works for them and the handful of lemmings who choose to think like them because they're too scared to accept that not everyone is like them, and that's OK.
It takes much more maturity and strength to say "you and I differ on points A and B but we should at least find a common ground."

I'm glad our President is smarter than most of the raving lunatics that populate the media, these message boards, and some political offices.

Posted by: JMGinPDX

------------------

No comment, just felt that your comment needed a repost. Well said.

Posted by: js_edit | January 4, 2010 8:46 PM | Report abuse

The most interesting aspect of this article is that Chris Cillizza fails to tell the readers the ages of the retiring dinosaurs!

Posted by: Cantabrigian | January 4, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

The most interesting aspect of this article is that Chris Cillizza fails to tell the readers the ages of the retiring dinosaurs!

Posted by: Cantabrigian | January 4, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

fable, give my regards to Don Diego de la Vega. Happy New Year. ;)

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 4, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

Throw out every incumbent in 2010. Both parties are corrupt to their very core and need to learn the meaning of "We the people"

Posted by: scon101
==
What an idiot! Throw them out and elect... WHOM?

This is all too familiar a ploy of the goobers.

"Throw them all out!" is basically saying

"Throw out the members of the party in charge, and replace them with the members of the party that wants to be in charge"

Posted by: HumanSimpleton | January 4, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse
*******************************************

Thats right throw em all out and i do not care who is elected.

If we do it enought times maybe our shyter pol's from both parties will get the message they work for the American citizen and not the donor with the biggest pockets.

THROW THEM ALL OUT
ANTI INCUMBENT 2010

Posted by: scon101 | January 4, 2010 8:03 PM | Report abuse

The Republican Party needs to go the way of the Whig Party. Its members don't get it that the first product of our constitution and our democracy is the Government which deserves our attention and respect.

The Republican Party has been successful in using demagoguery in exercising their power beyond their numbers. My throwing the uneducated masses raw meat issues rooted in fear such as abortion,gay marriage, terrorism--you name it--they have been able to loot America with the greatest transfer of wealth from the middle and lower classes to the top 5% of the country's population.

Of course this has weakened America as the Republican exploitation machine has presided over job transfers overseas and the initiation of two disastrous wars that have benefited the military-industrial complex with Blackwater and Haliburton leading the way.

We need a new party that stands for fiscal conservatism and is willing to participate in democratic government where consensus building and compromise are vital. This angry old white men from the South are done or should be done if the Nation is to prosper.

Posted by: explorers100 | January 4, 2010 7:58 PM | Report abuse

it is all in the political game. retie- collect pension and then either take a different political position or be hired or reelected to their former jobs. now these sleeze bags can have salary and pension. However the health care reform bill turns out , in the end it is a win-win situation for the political animal. If you think I am blowing smoke, just find out from our NYS Govenor Patterson, it has been going on in New York and it will continue thru the country.

I have asked the immigration dept. how i CAN BECOME AN ILLEGAL, ALTHOUGH i WAS BORN AND BREAD IN WHAT WAS THE usa, SO THAT i CAN GET EVERYTHING WITHOUT COST, MEDS, HOSPITALS, DOCTOR TREATMENT WITHOUT CO PAYS. . REMEMBER THE DAY NIXON SAID "I am not a crook' - I just laughed till I cried. Sorry to say, Obama is a trickey-dickey. Got himself setup for the rest of his natural life and he can sit back while this country falls apart,and Nero fiddled while Rome burned!

Posted by: LOONYBIN2000 | January 4, 2010 7:58 PM | Report abuse

"What a close examination of the current open seat landscape reveals, however, is that the talk of a doomsday scenario for House Democrats simply hasn't materialized yet. Are they likely headed to double-digit losses come November? Yes. But, talk of a switch in House control is, at least at this point, premature."

Kinda co-sign (midterm losses for the majority party is fairly typical and do not tell you anything). Clean (non-Drudge) political analysis, CC. Thanks for the knowledge.
___________

BTW, check out politico.com today. They totally discredit the Rasmussen polling, which they say is deeply GOP biased (Ras asks laughably loaded polling questions) and methodologicaly flawed.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/31047.html

And today HuffPo has a great photograph of the king of the teabaggers, Dale Robertson, standing 'side his homemade "tax protest" sign. Two problems, though: (1) he misspelled his favorite racial slur--this civic leader put an "a" before the "r" instead an "e" and (2) he made no mention any tax protest. Go figure.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/04/n-word-sign-comes-back-to_n_410651.html

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 4, 2010 7:51 PM | Report abuse

Vote them all out for NOT !! representing the people they don't deserve another day in there as it is !!

Posted by: yourmomscalling | January 4, 2010 7:49 PM | Report abuse

Throw out every incumbent in 2010. Both parties are corrupt to their very core and need to learn the meaning of "We the people"

Posted by: scon101
==
What an idiot! Throw them out and elect... WHOM?

This is all too familiar a ploy of the goobers.

"Throw them all out!" is basically saying

"Throw out the members of the party in charge, and replace them with the members of the party that wants to be in charge"

Posted by: HumanSimpleton | January 4, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

@ kwoods2 - The discussion of Minnesota redistricting was a follow-up on a post of drindl at 2:49 p.m. that explicitly mentioned Bachmann. This also follows on a post of CC's last week regarding projected shifts in population that would lead to Minnesota losing a seat. I didn't mention Bachmann as her name had already been in the thread.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 4, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

I wish EVERY Republican AND Democrat incumbent were retiring!

But, since they insist, LET'S RETIRE THEM!

Vote in 2010 to THROW THE BUMS OUT!!!!

Posted by: Impeachbush99 | January 4, 2010 6:53 PM | Report abuse

bsimon1 and FairlingtonBlade,
Redistricting Michele Bachmann's district is the only hope Democrats have?

If Minnesota moves from eight to seven congressional districts:

"The first version, the imagined result of bipartisan redistricting, protects Bachmann’s seat. Instead it pits incumbent Democrat Rep.Tim Walz against incumbent Republican Rep. John Kline in a reconfigured First District in the state’s southeastern corner.

The second version, with Democrats controlling the state Legislature and the governor’s office, puts Kline up against fellow Republican Bachmann in a new district that wraps around the Twin Cities in a U shape. Nathaniel90 concedes, however, that Bachmann still could emerge the victor in a GOP primary battle."
http://minnesotaindependent.com/33379/redistricting-minnesota-bachmann

The funny thing is that apparently
Democrats need to rely on redistricting to survive.

Posted by: kwoods2 | January 4, 2010 6:51 PM | Report abuse

Phyto

I'm from the MN6th and the district is very diverse with the northern part more rural and the south identifying with the Twin Cities suburban. It is prime real estate to slice into 2-3 parts plus no one, including the state republicans, likes our dingbat congressperson. Her only political comrade is touring out of Alaska….I think if we go down one slot then the 6th is toast….
___________________________________________________
Why did you attempt to hide who you were talking about? The entire nation knows Michele Bachmann, and she's a shoo-in.

Posted by: kwoods2 | January 4, 2010 6:41 PM | Report abuse

Please continue to report that Democrats have nothing to worry about this year, that the country loves the new health care bill and that it still worships at the feet of Obama. I mean, the stock market went up almost 200 points today. Doesn't that mean that the economy is in great shape?

Posted by: kenpasadena | January 4, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

good post, joey.

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 6:23 PM | Report abuse

This is an astute professional analysis of campaigns that are nine months away. The technical factors described will affect outcomes, but what Democrats must keep in mind is not the game but the rules.

The perennial question is: "What have you done for us lately? This congress and this administration have about six months to complete health care and move the focus toward greater equity for Main Street.

Mr Summer and Mr. Geitner will most probably not be helpful in developing policies to accomplish that mission. If independent voters are not convinced that this Democratic government is on their side, the tide will turn, even though the current GOP is as bereft of ideas, as it is of character.

Posted by: JoeyTranchina | January 4, 2010 6:03 PM | Report abuse

The sooner more people realize that the far left and the far right are bad for this country the faster we can get this country back on the track that the founding fathers set for us.
Posted by: mburton325
==================================
Very well said, it's nice to see the occasional post from a rational, reasonable person who thinks for themselves.

The problem isn't so much that the far left and far right equally have nothing but their own limited ideology at heart, it's their complete inability to recognize moderation and centrism and label it as such.
To someone on the far right, anyone who isn't equally ultra-conservative is a raging liberal tree-hugging Birkenstock-wearing commie pinko terrorist-lover...and to someone on the far left, anyone who isn't ultra-liberal is a raging fascist racist pollution-loving gun-toting Klan member Jesus freak.

The fact is that even our own President is pretty much smack dab in the center, if not slightly leaning towards the left.
Does that matter to the right-wingnuts who want to paint him as a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.
Does it matter to the left-wingnuts that he's NOT a socialist appeaser? Of course not. That's what they WANT him to be, despite evidence to the contrary.

Extremists want their way or the highway, even though their way only works for them and the handful of lemmings who choose to think like them because they're too scared to accept that not everyone is like them, and that's OK.
It takes much more maturity and strength to say "you and I differ on points A and B but we should at least find a common ground."

I'm glad our President is smarter than most of the raving lunatics that populate the media, these message boards, and some political offices.

Posted by: JMGinPDX | January 4, 2010 5:48 PM | Report abuse

FB- gotcha. All the borders will have to change. How much will be the interesting part.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

I should have been more careful. I was thinking align the lines of combining 1, 6, 7, and 8. District 1 would probably gain geographic territory from 7, if needed. Anyway, premature speculation.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 4, 2010 5:33 PM | Report abuse

FarlingtonBlade writes
"One could presumably grow District 3 a bit and redistribute the population of 6 into 1, 7, and 8. Don't know where Bachman would fit into that fight."

Not sure how you'd add to 1 from 6, they aren't contiguous. 6 does touch all the rest though, which makes it a prime candidate for division if MN were to lose a seat.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

Thanks to C Span and plenty of time, I watched the Congress thrash through the past six months and sure, they pander to their party and pretend to speak for "the American people" when we, the people, are obviously highly divided but those people really work hard. They do. Some of them are idealogues and some of them are all the way bought and some of them have hopes and dreams. It's not all one thing. I am partisan too. Everytime a R retires, I break out the chips and dips and party.

Posted by: GaiasChild | January 4, 2010 5:13 PM | Report abuse

I fully expect the GOP to pick up 10-12 seats in the House. I won't be surprised by it. Not one bit.

Posted by: ninjagin | January 4, 2010 5:13 PM | Report abuse

All ideas are equal. But wingnut, republotard ideas are MORE equal.

Ignorance is Strength!

Posted by: Heerman532 | January 4, 2010 4:59 PM | Report abuse

Good! Not surprising, Nature abhors climate change deniers (republicans).With the planet at the cusp of ruin if strong action is not taken, it would be a global disaster if Republicans got into power. We are already deep in trouble due to 8-10 years of republican mismanagement. Secondly, all this talk of the "republicans making gains" as though the polls actually supported this statement of ignorance. They do not and any "gains" the republicans imagine themselves to be making are purely the product of spin and republican lies. About as truthful as the swift boat criminals. Republicans are still polling 18% and President Obama is still polling 52%. It's wonderful news that more Republicans are smartening up and jumping ship. However, the Democrats are slated to to maintain control of the Congress in 2010 and in 2012.

Posted by: vintel7 | January 4, 2010 4:56 PM | Report abuse

I'm from the MN6th and the district is very diverse with the northern part more rural and the south identifying with the Twin Cities suburban. It is prime real estate to slice into 2-3 parts plus no one, including the state republicans, likes our dingbat congressperson. Her only political comrade is touring out of Alaska….I think if we go down one slot then the 6th is toast….

Posted by: Phyto | January 4, 2010 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Oops. I keep forgetting that the mn in mnteng isn't for Minnesota. Thanks for your response and that of bsimon. I just took a look at the DFLers in the House. Districts 7 and 8 are held by Peterson and Oberstar--they're not going anywhere. One could presumably grow District 3 a bit and redistribute the population of 6 into 1, 7, and 8. Don't know where Bachman would fit into that fight.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 4, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

For all the Republicans out there, Willie Nelson's song seems to sum it up for 2010 and beyond, "I'm crazy, crazy for feeling so lonely
I'm crazy,
crazy for feeling so blue
I know
you'd love me as long as you wanted
then someday
leave me for somebody new".

Posted by: drowningbear | January 4, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

"By the way obstructionism is a good thing when it serves the will of the people."

By definition, in a democracy, a minority blocking the will of the majority is not serving the will of the people. It's thwarting it.

Your statement would make more sense and be more truthful if you amended it to read "when it serves the will of the people I agree with." But then I would question your commitment to democracy. Good enough for Iraq, not good enough for the U.S., eh?

Posted by: nodebris | January 4, 2010 4:42 PM | Report abuse

JRM2:

The new talking points have quietly dropped TSA nominee Southers.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/31/AR2009123102257_pf.html

Posted by: JakeD | January 4, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

The only apt comparison for mid-term elections is 1934. Mitch McConnell and Boehner would be well served to bone up on their history, but then, so would Harry Reid. The country seemed much more capable of holding sinners accountable for their sins in 1934. It's time to quit mincing words and find some backbone.

Posted by: GreatLakes3 | January 4, 2010 4:29 PM | Report abuse

On MN redistricting, the politicians are currently speculating that the recession, which has slowed population shifts, may actually save all the seats in MN. Should that not be the case, population shifts have been away from 7 & 8. 1 includes Rochester, which I understand is roughly neutral. 2, 3 and 6 have seen the most growth. Repubs would love to see 4 & 5 combined, but if the Lege is held by the Dems (likely), that won't happen. Dems of course want Rep Bachmann to go away & would love to kill that seat, but will have to retain the Lege & win the Governorship to make it happen. So... my early guess is that Colin Peterson is the one to go.

More interesting might be how the boundaries change. Rep Bachmann's is the goofiest in shape & she lives in a piece that could easily be shifted to another district. As they say, there's more than one way to skin a cat.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 4:25 PM | Report abuse

((rolling)))

Okay, so if I pray real hard for the Constitution to be saved, it will be saved.

So much for law school and fighting the USA Patriot Act.

And drsam is correct about the Cheney body language. He is Darth Vader. Or his head and/or heart will explode like Mars Attack.
Play some high pitch sounds around that pacemaker and see if it drops him!!!

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 4:20 PM | Report abuse

FairlingtonBlade:

Um, I'm not going to be a lot of help on MN politics, but maybe bsimon1 will weigh in on the topic.

Assuming that MN loses a seat, I think the DFLers would like to redistrict the 4th and 5th to retire Bachmann to the lecture circuit. But the Rs might be able to put Minny and St. Paul into one district, making Ellison and/or McCollum vulnerable. bsimon1 can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the MN population shift is to the Twin Cities metro area and out of the more rural areas. Your proposal about redistricting 1, 7, and 8 seems reasonable to me.

Posted by: mnteng | January 4, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Cryos | January 4, 2010 3:18 PM
"Democrats are the ones trying to play politics with terrorism (or is it man made disasters I guess polls showed democrats looked like fools for pushing that)."
----------
You have got to be joking on this one or you are in denial.

"They sat on a nominee for 8 months for the TSA"
---------
Jim DeMint has been blocking the nomination since day 1

"By the way obstructionism is a good thing when it serves the will of the people."
-------
Yes, but the Repubs have way over done it over the last few years, at a record pace.

Posted by: JRM2 | January 4, 2010 3:57 PM | Report abuse

One obstacle for the Repubs in 2010 is RAISING MONEY.

They barely have enough to sponsor one house race right now.

Posted by: JRM2 | January 4, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

SPIRITUAL ADVICE FOR REPUBLICANS, CHENEY AND LIKE-MINDED
CHENEY'S PROBLEM--AND HE DOES NOT KNOW IT.

HE HATES TOO MUCH. Look at his blood shot eyes. Sages have said such is the result of "of stress, which builds up excessive negative 'fire' energy in the upper part of the head." He must learn how to love or he will pay terrible spiritual consequences in this or next life, and face untold physical consequences as well. He now looks gaunt and troubled--and his heart is heavy. He is out for revenge. The ego speaks so loudly, and does not know how to go with the flow. He is unable to really, really relax. He hates the fact that a black man is President of the United States. On the surface, he looks strong, but he is a coward within. He needs inner peace. The main driving force of his anger and politics is his wife, with his daughter Liz serving as an echo chamber. They are constantly pushing him to stand up to Obama, even against all civilized political ethic. This will sow the seed of his ultimate destruction--and Obama will succeed in the end beyond everybody's wildest expectations. He will be remembered as a transformational President. Hates destroys, and will never lead to anything good! That is the path the extreme right must ponder.

Posted by: drsam8 | January 4, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Another potential assassin among the gop loonies:

A Republican candidate for governor in Idaho who joked about hunting President Obama over the summer is calling for God to save the U.S. Constitution.

Rex Rammell, in a field of GOP contenders for the nomination, said recently it is time for citizens to "rise up" and defend the Constitution and will spread that message on the campaign trail.

"To think that we can save the Constitution without God's help when the government of the United States is corrupt is absurdity," he said. "We are in America's second Revolutionary War to save our freedom, which we paid for with blood. We need God's help and I'm not ashamed to ask for it."

The Idaho Statesman first reported the video where Rammell makes the remarks.

In the video, Rammell quotes Joseph Smith of the LDS Church and said he disagrees with people seeking separation of church and state.

"I am simply trying to rally the people to this cause," he said.

He said he's "tired" of people telling him he can't bring God into his campaign speeches.

Rammell made headlines in August when speaking to a local Republican group about the state's wolf hunt, for which hunters must pay for "wolf tags." An audience member shouted out a question about "Obama tags."

"Obama tags? We'd buy some of those," Rammell responded.

The far right keeps getting more and more pro-murder.

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 3:39 PM | Report abuse

More and more people are not identifying with a party unless it is the extreme (far left or far right). We talk about reform in health care, but what is needed is reform in Congress. The corruption and payoffs are legalized by Congress themselves -- the Mafia would be proud of such power. Middle class is not represented anymore. What is represented is special interest groups and those who make large donations to the corrupted Representatives who pass laws that favor the rich while ignoring what is best for the country and the vast majority of Americans. We need reform and a good place to start is to make it illegal for special interest groups or lobbyists to represent the interests of large corporations in DC. For any other job in this country, it would be a conflict or interest for a representative to take such payoffs and in turn do favors for that business. Meanwhile, Representatives lie to middle class Americans to get their vote but when it comes time to pass laws, it is the lobbyists and special interest groups who provide our crooked lawmakers the talking points so laws favor the wealthy and privileged in this country. When will middle class stop being divided by Party lies and come together to throw out all the bums no matter what party they are in.

Posted by: steveeyes | January 4, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

funny hypocrites:

'Limbaugh’s ‘Dandy’ Health Care Provided By Union Nurses

Last week, Rush Limbaugh was rushed to a hospital while vacationing in Hawaii after complaining of chest pains. Shortly after being released from Queen’s Medical Center in Honolulu, Limbaugh said his doctors didn’t know what caused his symptoms, and he praised the U.S. health care system based on his experience at the hospital:

“The treatment I received here was the best that the world has to offer,” Limbaugh said. “Based on what happened here to me, I don’t think there’s one thing wrong with the American health care system. It is working just fine, just dandy.”

ThinkProgress noted that it was odd that Limbaugh would cite his experience in Hawaii given that the state has previously passed a measure mandating that employers cover full-time employees, a provision that is similar to those being considered in Congress as part of comprehensive health care reform. SEIU’s blog notes that some of the health care reform measures before Congress wouldn’t even affect Hawaii:

In fact, Hawaii is so forward-thinking that the Senate bill excludes Hawaii from some of its provisions, because Hawaii’s requirements on employers go farther than the federal legislation.

But most interestingly, SEIU’s also points out that Queen’s Medical Center’s nursing staff are represented by the Hawaii Nurses’ Association union and that “Hawaii has one of the greatest percentages of organized workers of any state and also had the highest percentage of organized RNs.”

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 3:31 PM | Report abuse

When I voted for the one it was with the understanding that I would get all sorts of free goodies. But especily free doctors. Why are repubs standing in the way of my handout. I'm too tired to work.

Posted by: Moonbat | January 4, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

More and more people are not identifying with a party unless it is the extreme (far left or far right). We talk about reform in health care, but what is needed is reform in Congress. The corruption and payoffs are legalized by Congress themselves -- the Mafia would be proud of such power. Middle class is not represented anymore. What is represented is special interest groups and those who make large donations to the corrupted Representatives who pass laws that favor the rich while ignoring what is best for the country and the vast majority of Americans. We need reform and a good place to start is to make it illegal for special interest groups or lobbyists to represent the interests of large corporations in DC. For any other job in this country, it would be a conflict or interest for a representative to take such payoffs and in turn do favors for that business. Meanwhile, Representatives lie to middle class Americans to get their vote but when it comes time to pass laws, it is the lobbyists and special interest groups who provide our crooked lawmakers the talking points so laws favor the wealthy and privileged in this country. When will middle class stop being divided by Party lies and come together to throw out all the bums no matter what party they are in.

Posted by: steveeyes | January 4, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

If you want balance go to msnbc. They have left and far left. What else do you need?

Posted by: Moonbat | January 4, 2010 3:25 PM | Report abuse

In looking at all these seats, it looks like there are three seats in each party that look strongly vulnerable. It looks like retirements hurting Democrats is a non story. Thanks, CC, for providing as the late Paul Harvey would, the rest of the story.

MN District 6 is pretty much the suburban north of the Twin Cities--it's a mirror image of District 2, which carves out the south. If there's relative inflow into the Twin Cities, one might look at combining 1, 7, and 8 into 2 districts. Assuming that Districts 3, 4, and 5 (Mpls, suburban Mpls, and St. Paul) hold up, I don't see 2 or 6 getting the boot.

Any thoughts, mnteng?

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 4, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

If the Democrats are going to escape the "tax and spend" charge because they refuse to tax the rich for HC reform they are sadly mistaken. Taxing health care benefits for union HC benefits is just nuts and will only fuel the ire of Democrats who feel they have been screwed by the demise of the public option.

Posted by: afgail | January 4, 2010 3:23 PM | Report abuse

margaretmeyers at 3:15 pm is another "ad hominem" attack.

I know one can not libel a dead person, but can an "ad hominem" attack be leveled against a banned poster?

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 4, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

It is urgent that the press remain our unnamed co conspirator this year. If the news of all of obama's missteps gets played up, the voters might decide that competence and experience IS important after all. And where would that leave us?

Posted by: Moonbat | January 4, 2010 3:20 PM
==================================
Yeah the media's totally reverse coverage of Obama compared to Bush is appalling. REAL journalists must be ashamed at the sham American journalism has become.

It's pretty sad when I have to go to foreign news sources to get a balanced view of America's events.

Posted by: Cryos | January 4, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

It is urgent that the press remain our unnamed co conspirator this year. If the news of all of obama's missteps gets played up, the voters might decide that competence and experience IS important after all. And where would that leave us?

Posted by: Moonbat | January 4, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

And the D Party is the party of the "Chicago Way" ...

The Hill reports:

Ousted Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) will return to the spotlight in March when he joins this season's cast of "Celebrity Apprentice," the NBC reality show created by Donald Trump.

Blagojevich -- forced out of the governor's mansion last year for allegedly trying to barter off President Barack Obama's open Senate seat -- will join 13 other contestants on the show, including comedian-actor Sinbad, former Rock of Love star Bret Michaels and former baseball player Darryl Strawberry.


...note to Emanuel and Axelrod- if this Whitehouse gig doesn't work out as planned, your old pal Blago says "sometimes real opportunities develop in your life's journey that you can't really see when you're facing tumultuous times ..."

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | January 4, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

look who's changing their 'toons'..

"After saying the president was "downplaying" security, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) now says Barack Obama is using "the right approach" in fighting terror.

“Instead of focusing on the blame right now, the president seems to be on the right approach," he said on MSNBC. "He’s recognizing we’ve got a terror problem. What he is doing in Yemen is good.”

One of the president's other main critics, House Intelligence Committee ranking member Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.), also indicated that he is now satisfied with the administration's response to the failed attack."

Wonder if they realized that playing politics with terrorism wasn't playing well with the american people?

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 1:21 PM
==============================
Democrats are the ones trying to play politics with terrorism (or is it man made disasters I guess polls showed democrats looked like fools for pushing that).

They sat on a nominee for 8 months for the TSA and are trying to shoehorn in a perjuring candidate with no debate to unionize the TSA (political purposes).

People across party lines don't think that unionizing the TSA is a good idea.

By the way obstructionism is a good thing when it serves the will of the people. Republicans can look to less voter turnout if they don't object to something the majority of Americans disagree with.

Nice talking points though just close your eyes and repeat I'm sure you'll convince a few more young, naive liberals.

Posted by: Cryos | January 4, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

The fact that the old zouk was an idiot is really helping the writing of the new zouk.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | January 4, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse

knjincvc@134 -- cosign. The GOP is the Party of Got Nothing.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | January 4, 2010 3:11 PM | Report abuse

No one really knows what is going to happen in the next ten months so all this hypothesizing is just that, hypothesizing. The real point is that most citizens are frustrated and angry at both parties.
-----------------------

Couldn't say this any better myself.

The sooner more people realize that the far left and the far right are bad for this country the faster we can get this country back on the track that the founding fathers set for us.

Posted by: mburton325 | January 4, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: drindl
"yes, bsimon, that's wht I'm talking about.
How much support can Hate Radio and Fox give to *specific* teabaggers without violating FCC rules?"

The problem is how would the FCC track the amount of free time a candidate receives on radio or television. Would a 5:00 news story receive the same weight as a talk show host extolling the wonderful attributes of a candidate?

Posted by: knjincvc | January 4, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

Hey Chris:

I don't know if you're monitoring the comments today, but if it's possible, it would be interesting to see how these districts are represented in their state legislatures.

That would probably be a more accurate predictor than the 2008 presidential vote.

Posted by: Bondosan | January 4, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

yeah shrink -- EPIC FAIL.

Here's another clownish teabagger:

The Star-Tribune says in its editorial over the weekend:

'It's ironic that a Minnesota member of Congress, Republican Michele Bachmann, went so far last summer to declare her intention to only partially complete her census forms, and to suggest reasons for others not to comply with the census law. If Minnesota loses a congressional seat, Bachmann's populous Sixth District could be carved into pieces. She likely would have to battle another incumbent to hang on to her seat. We've noticed that her anticensus rhetoric has lately ceased. We hope she got wise: Census compliance is not only in Minnesota's best interest, but also her own.'

The really fun fact, as I've learned from Minnesota experts, is that Bachmann's district would likely be the first to go if the state lost a seat. The other seats are all fairly regular-shaped, logical districts built around identifiable regions of the state (Minneapolis, St. Paul, the Iron Range, and so on). Bachmann's district is made of what's left over after such a process, twisting and turning from a small strip of the Wisconsin border and curving deep into the middle of the state. As such, the obvious course of action if the state loses a seat is to split her district up among its neighbors.

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse


well, i just talked to God.
And Mr. Greenspan has said that the number of 10% unemployment is the new number. It will dip occasionally, but we better get used to it.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 2:48 PM | Report abuse

All these facts keep getting in the way of our ability to rule properly:

it is so cold with record snowfall everywhere that Al Gore seems to have expired with his green vision. Why can't you all get it that cooling is warming.

Another 3rd visitor in the WH today. Killers on bases. Bombers on planes. Murders in the CIA. This is the transparency we wanted. Why should we be safe as we mess up the rest of the world.

Posted by: Moonbat | January 4, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

Question:

"Wonder if [DeMint and Hoekstra] realized that playing politics with terrorism wasn't playing well with the American people?"

Answer:

Yes. Fragging the Commander in the aftermath of an attack is terrible politics. They probably thought is was ok to savage Obama precisely because no one got hurt (except the would be assassin, which is a word with an interesting and oddly relevant history by the way).

Assessing the politics of the Detroit attack was an earlier string topic though. As many said then, as soon as they realize they had no traction, it would vanish from the R's talking points.


Posted by: shrink2 | January 4, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse

"Dare I say NY-23 is going viral?"

Yes sir, I beleive you may. From your state, another story:

'Allen Quist, a Republican candidate seeking the nomination to go up against Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN), has made a serious pronouncement: That the political battle against the Democrats is the defining fight of this generation, even greater than the fight against terrorism.

"It's because I, like you, have seen that our country is being destroyed. I mean, this is -- every generation has had to fight the fight for freedom. This is our fight. And this is our time. This is it. Terrorism, yes -- but that's not the big battle. The big battle is in D.C., with the radicals. They aren't liberals, they're radicals. Obama, Pelosi, Walz -- they're not liberals, they're radicals. They are destroying our country. "

Wtf, eh? This is how seriously unhinged teabaggers have become. Maybe we should ask most voters, Who are you more afraid of getting a plane with? 50% of your country's population, or a guy with a bomb?

This kind of madness is what twill finally sink them.


Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 2:21 PM | Report abuse

bsimon1:

While I welcome all to the INDEPENDENT Party, Chafee switched parties way back in 2007. He was a RINO anyways.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/16/politics/politico/thecrypt/main3265068.shtml

I think that Republicans (including Sarah Palin) learned their lesson in NY-23.

Posted by: JakeD | January 4, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

yes, bsimon, that's wht I'm talking about.

How much support can Hate Radio and Fox give to *specific* teabaggers without violating FCC rules?

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

It is the economy. Graph unemployment against Democratic polling numbers and presidential approval numbers and observe the inverse relationship. When, as looks increasingly likely, unemployment starts coming down and jobs are added, the inverse relationship will hold. Add to that the fact that Republicans do not have the money to run a national campaign. If unemployment is below 8% by next June and the Republicans fundraising remains at the low levels it currently stands, I think Democrats retain the majority by a large margin.

Posted by: Prosperity2008 | January 4, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

"Former Sen Lincoln Chafee is entering the RI Gov's race as an independent."

I see the Post has picked up an AP story that says the only Repub who's announced for the race thus far has dropped out, leaving Chafee vs a couple Dems who are having a primary battle. Apparently the GOP wants the guy that Chafee beat in the GOP primary for Senate in 2006 to run for Gov. Dare I say NY-23 is going viral?

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 1:56 PM | Report abuse

parkerfl1 writes
"The resurgence of the Republican Party has been greatly exaggerated. They are not out of the proverbial woods regarding Congress yet."

Why limit the observation to Congress? I see in the headlines today that former Sen Lincoln Chafee is entering the RI Gov's race as an independent. Do we have any Rhodies here who can give us the background on that race?

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

yes, state laws would come into play on donation reporting, in which, one would have to comply.
I was talking more in the federal ballpark.
States have the right to track in a more specific way if desired.

It's also "soft money". Wasn't the McCain-Feingold bill all about that too? Too much donation money falling through the cracks (donations to political parties).

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

The resurgence of the Republican Party has been greatly exaggerated. They are not out of the proverbial woods regarding Congress yet.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: parkerfl1 | January 4, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Republicans will definitely have the advantage.
1) They can brag about being the party of "HECK NO!" and darn proud of it, anything to make Obama fail.
2) They can run on Anti-affordable health care with NO!, and proud of it, alternative plan.
3) Of course anti-stimulus. Who needs infrastructure or jobs. Pawlenty will be there to campaign with them.
4) Demint will run on "I kept the TSA from unionization" Do you feel safer with H.S. dropouts screening passengers and bags?
5)More tax cuts and borrowing from China to pay for them and Heck Yes! trickledown works! Don't you feel it working!

Posted by: knjincvc | January 4, 2010 1:34 PM | Report abuse

TheBabeNemo writes
"An "in kind" donation is one that is under the radar of the tax code, whereby, reporting it does not matter. They would like you to believe that it is a "matching donation"...someone put up money and you matched. But it really is to avoid reporting to the IRS."


I think its more complicated than that, and heavily dependent on state laws. In MN, in-kind donations have to be tracked; i.e. if you are a caterer & donate food to a political event it is counted as a donation, with a dollar value. That is not true in all states.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 1:34 PM | Report abuse

hey drindl:
when did DeMint and Hoesktra say this?
This morning?

They got the memo on how serious Yemen is.

See how they run......
Lady Madonna, children at your feet

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

An "in kind" donation is one that is under the radar of the tax code, whereby, reporting it does not matter. They would like you to believe that it is a "matching donation"...someone put up money and you matched. But it really is to avoid reporting to the IRS.

"I will give you this money, but it's less than you expected, because I had to keep the donation under the cap."

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

look who's changing their 'toons'..

"After saying the president was "downplaying" security, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) now says Barack Obama is using "the right approach" in fighting terror.

“Instead of focusing on the blame right now, the president seems to be on the right approach," he said on MSNBC. "He’s recognizing we’ve got a terror problem. What he is doing in Yemen is good.”

One of the president's other main critics, House Intelligence Committee ranking member Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.), also indicated that he is now satisfied with the administration's response to the failed attack."

Wonder if they realized that playing politics with terrorism wasn't playing well with the american people?

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Reason5, good to see you back. I have to disagree with the possibility of a Republican majority in the House. They will certainly make gains. But unlike 1994, they have no coherent view. As cheesey as the "Contract with America" was, it had a clear political point of view and a direction. The Republican party has no clear view. They only coherent message is "No" to anything that has a "D" next to it. That will certianly be enough to win conservative disticts that Obama may have helped "Ds" carry in 2008, but it will not be enough for a landslide. Barring something unforeseen (e.g. A successful terrorist attack or a major economic recovery), it would seem to me that Democrats would be thrilled to keep the losses in the 12-15 range. Under 10 would be a major victory. Over 20, a casue for concern, perhpas great concern depending on how many over 20 and where they are.
I do agree the Rs are looking good at the state level in many areas, but they are going to lose some as well.
If the younger Biden does not make up his mind soon, Delware will have a Republican Senator. If Biden is in, they still might, but it will be a fun race to watch.

Posted by: trep1 | January 4, 2010 1:19 PM | Report abuse

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/2009s-most-valuable-democrat-is.html

Nate Silver had a very interesting column on Democrats who are the most and least valuable to their party. He bases this off how much each Democrats vote with the party in relation to how much a typical Congressman from that district would vote with the Democrats.

Parker Griffith actually is third on the list of least valuable Dems. (Artur Davis tops it) Griffith certainly hasn't been doing any favors for his party and has opposed pretty every platform position of the Dems.

Posted by: DDAWD | January 4, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Reason5:

Republicans regain the majority? Higher than a kite you are.

Always remember - what's good for Republicans is bad for decent people. Just look at the last decade.

Evil morons, every one of them traitorous bastards.

Take that assinine religion with you.

Posted by: bflorhodes | January 4, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

reason5 writes
"Republicans will gladly exchange Delawares at large House seat for Bidens US Senate seat. I think Republicans have the momentum and will win a large number of House seats, maybe even the majority."


Gotta wonder why Beau Biden hasn't announced yet for DE Senator. Sure makes it hard to believe he's planning to run.

On the GOP momentum, I remain skeptical. They're going to have to come up with something better than 'no taxes, ever' if they want to appear credible to swing voters. Dems retiring or choosing not to run for open seats in the face of this GOP 'wave' are going to be kicking themselves by November.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 4, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Republicans better figure out what their political meal ticket is supposed to be pretty soon. I don't think a guy who fried his junk with an underwear bomb is going to terrify enough Americans long enough to hold up against an economy on the rebound.
American manufacturing up five months in a row? Good news for American workers is bad news for Republican candidates.

Posted by: shrink2 | January 4, 2010 1:04 PM | Report abuse

I really cannot believe that the people of the United States want to see their government come to a complete halt. If Republicans regain the majority, that is EXACTLY what will happen. They are very nearly succeeding in that right now.

Posted by: cms1 | January 4, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse


"As we start ramping up our 2010 election coverage, we're paying close attention to races where Republicans have an intra-party conflict pitting somewhat moderate GOPers against the Tea Party/Club for Growth right.

Virginia's 5th CD is shaping up as a really good example. There State Senator Robert Hurt (R-VA) just got religion and signed Grover Norquist's anti-tax pledge to shore up his right, despite the fact that Hurt was once one of Norquist's targeted 'moderates'.

As we've been reporting, this district could be the next NY-23, with the candidates attempting to out-conservative one another and even talk radio's Laura Ingraham getting involved."

Does anyone know what would constitute an 'in-kind' donation in terms of all the free media that Hate Radio hosts lavish on radical right candidates? Why does the FCC not step in here? This sounds like a clear violation.

But this primary challenge to moderates in moderate districts from unelectable far rightwingers is the wave building and the pattern that the Beltway Bubblers don't see coming. This is what will keep the gop from making major gains this year -- their own Fifth Column.

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 12:55 PM | Report abuse

so am i correct in assuming that the retirees are all the "old guys"??

good. get some of these bowties and old school greatest generationers outta here.
i'm sorry - but that's the way i feel.
It's over, your time was then, this is now. Your morays don't hold water. I don't want to be pregnant and barefoot in the kitchen like your old school ways say.......among other "values" of right and wrong.

take a hike and take john mccain with you.
even if the one elected is of the terrible "other party" - at least they will be of a generation that can relate.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Republicans will gladly exchange Delawares at large House seat for Bidens US Senate seat. I think Republicans have the momentum and will win a large number of House seats, maybe even the majority. Republicans are in an extremely good spot to win a group of Governor's seats. 2010 should be a great year for Republicans.

Posted by: reason5 | January 4, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

This time next year, Parker Griffith will be back in 'Bama, enjoying the cash stream one gets from cancer patients, nursing homes and mortiaries. He is a tourist in DC.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | January 4, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

Seems like it will all even out in the end. The Republican National Committee is having a problem raising money whereas the Democratic Committee has a nice nest egg. Why is that???
No one really knows what is going to happen in the next ten months so all this hypothesizing is just that, hypothesizing. The real point is that most citizens are frustrated and angry at both parties.

Posted by: Aquarius1 | January 4, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Seems like it will all even out in the end. The Republican National Committee is having a problem raising money whereas the Democratic Committee has a nice nest egg. Why is that???
No one really knows what is going to happen in the next ten months so all this hypothesizing is just that, hypothesizing. The real point is that most citizens are frustrated and angry at both parties.

Posted by: Aquarius1 | January 4, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

37thand0street:

Until you realize that 8 of the 10 D "open seats" are in competitive districts, compared with only 3 of the 14 R seats.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/house

Posted by: JakeD | January 4, 2010 12:06 PM | Report abuse

What? No breakdown as to why this is all good for 'TPaw' and 'Hizzoner?'

Posted by: swallen1 | January 4, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse


More white supremacists jumping ship like rats...

Posted by: demtse | January 4, 2010 12:04 PM | Report abuse

These two lists look pretty even - not much of an advantage for either party.


Posted by: 37thand0street | January 4, 2010 12:02 PM | Report abuse

Well it looks like we have both sides of this bet covered:

"And, if so, do they set off a wave of retirements that turns what looked like a traditional midterm cycle for Democrats -- with losses in the 20-25 seat range -- into one in which control of the House is up for grabs?"

"Are [Democrats] likely headed to double-digit losses come November? Yes. But, talk of a switch in House control is, at least at this point, premature."

Well wasn't it premature a few hours ago?
Chris, yes, this is an election year. More fun for all of us. But lets not get all breathless about major shifts in political gravity. 2016 isn't that far off. Cheers.

Posted by: shrink2 | January 4, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

Chris, I must say you look marvelous on t.v.. You were great on the panel. You have dimples I never knew you had!!!!

Repulsives all over have been crying "wait till mid term elections, we'll get it all back."
That has been their mantra for 2 months now and they will carry that throughout 2010. Make ya gag for the next 10 months.

But to me personally - bunch of party line bull again. From the city council person in your city - all the way to Washington senators; we go to polls to vote for people that we believe will help "we the people"---that will look to their backyard first, then Washington.

It's the people they represent that takes priority - not "let's get majority in House and Senate".

Good example is-currenty- every Republican, no matter what bill is flying on the floor, is automatically voting NO - because it's a vote against Obama and his administration. Betcha they do NOT read the bills because they are already a NO---but based on the wrong reason.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | January 4, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

Chris:

Can we cross-check this list of open-seats with the states due to lose congressional seats - it might be an easy way to re-draw the lines.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 4, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

scon101:

Amen!!!

P.S. Welcome back to Seattle Top / Gold and Tanzanite / Chris Fox : )

Posted by: JakeD | January 4, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

I don't think it's portrayed as bad news, fable, just not as good news like it would be for repubicans. But I think he's *trying* maybe...

Posted by: drindl | January 4, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

Throw out every incumbent in 2010. Both parties are corrupt to their very core and need to learn the meaning of "We the people"

Posted by: scon101 | January 4, 2010 11:35 AM | Report abuse

Only Chris and possibly FOX News would portray Republican retirements in the House of Representatives as bad news for Democrats.

Posted by: fable104 | January 4, 2010 11:33 AM | Report abuse

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