Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity

The 2010 enthusiasm gap (in chart form!)

Sometimes a chart is worth a thousand words.

Screen shot 2010-04-27 at 3.21.40 PM.png

By Chris Cillizza  |  April 27, 2010; 3:24 PM ET
Categories:  House  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: The Fix in the Big Apple
Next: Charlie Crist edges closer to independent decision

Comments

Don't just counter-boycott by spending money in AZ--definitely do that; I plan to--but, ALSO, boycott San Francisco.

Posted by: Vandervecken | April 29, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse


Will the anti-incumbent sentiment in congress cause voters to switch party? Vote

http://www.youpolls.com/default.asp

.

Posted by: usadblake | April 28, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

yeah, I never really liked the casino analogy. There's some truth to that, however. That's a lot of what derivatives markets are. It's basically like intrade. And companies can legitimately use them to hedge against unforseen circumstances. Perhaps the most famous example is SW Airlines which took out a derivative where they would get paid off if the price of fuel jumped. A spike in fuel prices would normally hurt an airline, but since SW gambled that prices would increase, they were actually able to make money and keep prices low for flights.

One problem is that a lot of these banks were gambling with money they didn't have. When a bank conducts transactions with the money that you have deposited, they are required by law to keep a certain percentage of deposits in their vaults. When you trade on intrade, you cannot conduct a transaction unless your account contains the money to pay off the contract if the conditions of the contract are met. Thus, if someone makes a bunch of bad intrade investments, it's no big deal since that person is the only one to lose. Banks definitely do not have all the cash on hand to pay off being on the losing end of a deal.

Makes sense, right?

Now AIG was feasting off something called credit default swaps. To use an intrade analogy, they were selling contracts that various companies or financial products. If AIG sells a CDS for GE to me, I can make payments to AIG as long as GE doesn't default on a bond. If they do default, then AIG gives me a huge payout? Now why would I do this? Well, I could be running a bank that has loaned money to GE and want to hedge against a bond default. I do that by buying a CDS. It's like the oil situation with SW. No matter what happens, I'm ok. Or I could just be a random investor who thinks GE is going to go under for whatever reason. It doesn't matter. (this is where the "buying insurance on a house you don't own" applies). So it's kind of like insurance, but not quite.
(continued)

Posted by: DDAWD | April 28, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

The stupid chart makes no sense...columns add to more than 100%...

Posted by: NDprairiepopulist | April 28, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Chart Worth a thousand Words....

It's only May and the election is November... That's like a thousand years.

At this time, Bush senior had a 90% approval rating and then lost in November.

Posted by: eddieclyde | April 28, 2010 10:38 AM | Report abuse

I believe we might have a duty to serve our clients..Sparks tells Sen Collins...We might have a duty to serve our clients...no wonder GS is held in such low regard. Why not we have an absolute duty to serve our clients...Or of course we do Sen that goes w/o saying..or Hell yes we have a duty..sounded almost like what we heard from Enron and Jeff Skilling.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 28, 2010 9:47 AM | Report abuse

I would have bet,
if only there had been a market,
that race horse breeders were Republicans.

“We ignored the notion of supply and demand,” said Arnold Kirkpatrick, president of the Lexington real estate firm Kirkpatrick & Company. “We bred too many horses, overborrowed to do it, and are now caught trying to sell them to people who don’t want them.”

Gambling is the core of the thoroughbred industry [Who knew!?]. Commercial stallion farms spend millions on accomplished racehorses in the hope they will pass on their speed and class to future generations. Breeders pay up to $150,000 to mate a mare to these studs in the hope they can land a sales topper in the auction ring.

Lately, however, horsemen have been betting their farms and losing."

Well here we have the free market, people betting on betting, on betting on horses.

Will we learn, or never learn?

I am setting my bet.
A sure thing.


Posted by: shrink2 | April 28, 2010 12:06 AM | Report abuse

Sorry that last was in response to BB

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 11:49 PM | Report abuse

Laura Bush said she and her friend were chatting when she ran the stop sign. But she also said...

You know what?

Never kill people,
play up your special character
and blame lots of other circumstances and people.

Laura, you did it, millions of others did not. Just say, "I killed people and I feel really bad." People get that.

Don't say, "It was sporty and sleek, and it was also the car that Ralph Nader made famous in his book Unsafe at Any Speed,” she states. “He claimed the car was unstable and prone to rollover accidents. A few years later, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration went so far as to investigate the Corvair’s handling, but it didn’t reach the same grim conclusions. I was driving my dad’s much larger and heavier Chevy Impala. But none of that would ever ease the night of November..."


Democrats and Republicans if you kill others by accident, don't talk about Ralph Nader and...if only...your Chevy Impala...as if...

Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 11:39 PM | Report abuse

37th,

You are a good example of someone who only knows enough to be dangerous. Don't believe me. Read one of the MANY books out that describe in detail what happened. Then you don't have to keep guessing, and looking foolish.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 11:37 PM | Report abuse

Did any of you know that Obama's financial regulation bill is 1500 pages ???


What is in that thing ???

All of a sudden, a few weeks after the health care debate, Obama want to RUSH a 1500 page bill through Congress ???

What ever happened to committee hearings - AND THE COMMITTEE MARKING-UP THE BILLS ???

AND then it going to the floor ???


They are having the hearings AFTER Harry Reid calling for a cloture vote.


1500 Pages ??? WHAT IS IN THERE ??

WHAT ARE THE DEMOCRATS HIDING ???


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 11:34 PM | Report abuse

Maybe Blankfein is channeling Simon Johnson when Blankfein said he generally supported the Dodd financial regulation.

"In the interests of finding a more positive and cooperative way forward, here are three suggestions for the PR team to take up with senior management – once they are in mood to think long-term about their “franchise value” again.

1. Come out in support of some form of financial reform. The really clever move would be to support something that is not likely to pass, such as size restriction on the biggest banks – keeping in mind that this would hinder JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup much more than Goldman (which was a much safer size not so long ago). Almost as smart would be to endorse the consumer protection agency for financial products – given that Goldman does not deal with many retail investors. In any case, surprise us with support for something that the administration in general or Mr. Volcker in particular is proposing."

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 11:34 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


The point I was making is that Goldman Sachs was creating a deception by simplying its positions as "longs" and "shorts". I stand by my characterization that when Goldman thought its "long" positions were going to go bad, they sold them to their clients - creating "shorts"

I don't think you understand the role of AIG.

AIG was giving out guarantees to the performance of the mortgages within the mortgage portfolios. Goldmand would put together a group of mortgages - and then slap an AIG default guarantee in there.


And then sell of shares in the portfolio in various parts - those are the derivatives.

Your last paragraph misses what was going on - there was a fundamental difference in what was in the portfolios - and what Goldman was telling its clients - AND Goldman knew it -


However Goldman was relying on the AIG guarantee to let it continue the fraud.

Yes, Goldman was selling its bad "longs" to its clients - at full price.

They knew those "longs" were going to go bad -

Goldman had control over the pricing mechanism - so even though they knew the "longs" were going bad, there was no way for those "longs" to lose value right away.

So they stuck their clients with the losses.


I'm not going to argue with you - because you always insist you are adding to the discussion, but you aren't and then you twist something around at the end to again insist you were right.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 11:30 PM | Report abuse

37th,

The exchange with Blankfein who talked about AIG and their default is talking about AIG having to put up money for Credit Default Swaps (not shorts). The government did not want AIG to default, because AIG was the counterparty on CDS all over the world, and that alone would have started a chain reaction of defaults. As each entity defaulted, then entities relying on those CDS would have defaulted. Those defaults would have brought down all the banks, many diversified firms, i.e. General Electric and Goldman Sachs themselves. The total value of CDS, at that time, was $63 trillion. There was no one, no one, who had the ability to backstop AIG if it defaulted on all its CDS obligations.

If you really want to know what happened over that weekend in Sept. 2008, when AIG was teetering, read "Too Big to Fail" by Andrew Sorkin.

Lastly, GS cannot just transfer its losses to its clients. Just like you cannot transfer your trading losses to me, or me to you.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 11:18 PM | Report abuse

When markets are free,
children are exchanged
for money. What is money then,
child exchange value?

Free Derivative Markets.
Surely that is good for America.
Republicans better get serious.


Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 11:17 PM | Report abuse

I don't believe that Goldman Sachs was "hedging" its position.


What happened was Goldman took a whole bunch of losses.


And they STUCK those losses with their clients - only they are telling the Committee today - that their original losses were "long" positions - and they were dumping their "short" on their clients.

They want you to believe that somehow that equalled out - that it was fair game.

It wasn't fair game.

Once they covered all their losses with "shorts" - they kept on going - pushing "shorts" all during 2008.

THEN they found out that AIG couldn't pay off all the bets on the shorts.

THAT would mean that Goldman would be STUCK with its original losses.

So the American Public was told, that if Goldman wasn't paid off by the government - then the world economy would seize and the world would end.

Sort of sounds like global warming - do this or calamity will happen.

AT the end, Goldman Sachs came up with a great deal of money - the government had the largest deficit in history, and unemployment was 5% higher.

You decide.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Sorry that last was in response to BB

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 10:45 PM | Report abuse

"I think being able to pay with gold is cool."

Synthetic financial constructions, bets over bets over bets are no different from gold...so long as people believe someone will pay them for the thing they bought, exchange value is created...whether for tulips, houses, gold or Goldman's exotic 'products'.

One kind of property can be reliably converted to another, unless, unless...


Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 10:45 PM | Report abuse

@12Bar: Weyl was a rocking mathematician. The guy Einstein went to for math help.

GR is a tough nut for me, working through the Hartel book right now. QM is easy, up to spin spectra anyway, I've never gotten too far into GR.

For me the elegance of math peaked in complex variables / boundary value problems and of course partials.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

@noa,

How much room does 60 chinese oz. occupy?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

Matrix math can solve it, but I discovered a love of tensor math when I took general relativity in grad school. One of the best bits was Weyl theory. It was elegant. Beautiful. Our universe should work that way.

But it doesn't. Oh well.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | April 27, 2010 10:10 PM | Report abuse

Ok the thing is, chemical burn cycles strip the reason teak is used on boats in the first place, protective oils. Sanding is hard work but if the wood is still in good shape (not too rutted and pitted underneath all the previous chemicals and weather deposited salty dirt), sanding and oiling is the best.

Besides, it builds character, not just tendinitis; I worked on boats so many years, I should have lots more character. People use chemicals to skip the sanding, but a year or so later (depending how close the marina is to dirt storms like a freeway), it looks as bad.

Hire someone, but if you do it right, you will have value added.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 10:08 PM | Report abuse

I agree with a prior poster who talked about Goldman Sach's abysmal performance before the Senate committee. It sounds like GS so compartmentalizes its business, that each sales person only knows enough to sell his/her product and doesn't know what the firm is doing in the background. That way, the sales person CAN'T fully inform the client.

Then, management who hedges the firm's risks doesn't actually know (or care) what the clients were told.

I never heard so much "I don't know if we really were short". Clients went through each security and made up their own minds. We don't think we have to tell our clients that we thought the securities "are a bunch of crap".

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 10:03 PM | Report abuse

Goldman-Sachs ENDORSES OBAMA Financial Regulation Bill

The CEO of Goldman Sachs says he is in favor of Obama's bill.

NOW who in the world is going to trust Obama - that he is doing the right thing with financial regulation, if Goldman Sachs WANTS OBAMA'S BILL ???


It is the kiss of death.

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/banking-financial-institutions/94735-blankfein-supports-financial-reform-legislation


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 10:03 PM | Report abuse

Voinovich likely to reverse his FinReg vote. That's one wheel coming off the GOP HatebTrain.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 10:02 PM | Report abuse

@12Bar: they also take American $100 bills, but they have to be pretty new. But that's still a currency. I think being able to pay with gold is cool.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 9:54 PM | Report abuse

@noa,

That's really interesting that VN treats gold as legal tender. That completely undermines one of my gold objections, and that is you can't spend it. Good for you. Sounds like a smart emergency fund.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:48 PM | Report abuse

All yours, 37. Triple space yourself crazy.

Out.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 9:45 PM | Report abuse

We correctly predicted about three Post writers would write about the AZ hate bill before Fix said anything. We won that bet easily. Big question: how will the Fix spin this to support his anti-BHO narrative? Or will he just ignore the story forever?

==

If it can't be spun as "national environment favoring Republicans" then I'll take "Ignore Forever" for a thousand, Alex.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 9:45 PM | Report abuse

All trolls horde gold. They hide under bridges from Billy goats. They write articles for girls garage. They cruise playgrounds for victims.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 9:43 PM | Report abuse

No, Brigade, I don't care about his bowties. What pisses me off about Will, aside from his religious views about markets, which I think render him certifiable, is how awful his writing his. He can't develop a point to save his life, his whole imperative is to show off how smart he thinks he is, and secondarily what a "regular guy" he is. He tosses in unilluminating historical references for the former and irrelevant baseball references for the latter. There are several regulars here who write a lot better than Will does, I have no idea why anyone would syndicate him.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 9:42 PM | Report abuse

Didn't get to read Will today. Ran out out of toilet tissue so...

I did catch the excellent piece by Pulitzer Prize winner and, er, Fix coworker Eugene Robinson:

"Arizona's draconian new immigration law is an abomination -- racist, arbitrary, oppressive, mean-spirited, unjust. About the only hopeful thing that can be said is that the legislation, which Republican Gov. Jan Brewer signed Friday, goes so outrageously far that it may well be unconstitutional."

Tell us what you really think, Gene. How good is that?
_______

We correctly predicted about three Post writers would write about the AZ hate bill before Fix said anything. We won that bet easily. Big question: how will the Fix spin this to support his anti-BHO narrative? Or will he just ignore the story forever?

Developing...

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 9:38 PM | Report abuse

@12Bar: I have about 60 ounces, hanging onto it for the long haul. I don't follow the price all day, I check it a few times a month.

I just like having the stuff. It's in the form of "Chinese ounces," just about exactly 1.2 troy, g0tte 50 of those. In VN those are like currency, you can go into a motorbike shop, pull out a hunka gold to pay, the saleguys don't even raise an eyebrow, just call for the current spot. Legal tender.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 9:38 PM | Report abuse

Well it's not really a deck. More of a rail and sone ladder and doorway area. The inside is fabulous mahogony. Lemon pledge there.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 9:35 PM | Report abuse

@noa,

Are you planning to be a long term holder of gold? Or are you more of a trader?

Always good to have a gain.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:31 PM | Report abuse

"Listening to CSpan, the grilling of Goldman Sachs. Don't know why anyone would think the R's are not just as enthusiasic about reform as the D's."

I guess it's all the stuff they say when they aren't grilling GS...

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 9:31 PM | Report abuse

Noacoler wrote,
"That prissy little impotent man has nothing useful to say."

But don't you like his bow ties? I noticed that Tucker Carlson quit wearing his after John Stewart made fun of them.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 9:30 PM | Report abuse

Listening to CSpan, the grilling of Goldman Sachs. Don't know why anyone would think the R's are not just as enthusiasic about reform as the D's. Susan Collins just finished up her leeeeeengthy opining of the failures of GS, with "reform is absolutely required". John McCain just said GS was "clearly unethical".

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Right on, 12. There's going to be a bill. I don't know why people take all this political gamesmanship seriously.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Why should anyone care what George Will has to say about it? If you've read him before, and you read him again, you have serious time management problems. That prissy little impotent man has nothing useful to say.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 9:26 PM | Report abuse

shrink2


What in the world are you talking about ??


No one knows.

But keep the personal attacks to a minimum. And stick to the topic.

You are just throwing out personal attacks without even referring to a topic.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Listening to CSpan, the grilling of Goldman Sachs. Don't know why anyone would think the R's are not just as enthusiasic about reform as the D's. Susan Collins just finished up her leeeeeengthy opining of the failures of GS, with "reform is absolutely required". John McCain just said GS was "clearly unethical".

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:23 PM | Report abuse

broadwayjoe


the venom and hate coming from you is overwhelming.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 9:22 PM | Report abuse

Methinks the Republicans are going to be hard-pressed in coming up with a new rationale for not supporting Wall Street Reform since their Frank Luntz inspired "it's a bailout" right wing meme was such a craptacular failure, provoking guffaws after jaw dropping shock.


It also helps the Dems that Goldman Sachs execs displayed their craptacular arrogance on C-Span for all the world to see today.


The commercials for the 2010 midterms are already writing themselves.


"Republican Senator Xxxxx voted against Wall Street regulation three times." Oops: "Republican Senator Xxxxx voted against Wall Street regulation four times." Want to go for five?

http://blogs.alternet.org/speakeasy/2010/04/27/biggest-wall-street-firms-give-most-cash-to-gop/

Posted by: DrainYou | April 27, 2010 9:20 PM | Report abuse

Some people like talking to each other using Chris Cillizza's best effort as a diving board. Springy is good, we nail him if he is flabby. He gets paid.

37 is just too stupid. When he eats or sleeps, people can talk, otherwise, it is just like the real world.

Zouk, I know boats, I have lived on them and sailed them for years...just be careful with your wood (yeah, Always good advice, I know what you Philistines are thinking!) and do not think more abuse will fix past abuse. The bleach ammonia cycle wrecks decks, just like hair.


Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 9:20 PM | Report abuse

Isn't anybody going to cite George Will's piece to support their position on the Arizona law?

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 9:18 PM | Report abuse

Phalin was on Fox doubling down on the AZ racial profiling bill. She's for it 100%
You'll recall her Dad said she withdrew from a college in Hawaii because there were too many minorities there, i.e., native Hawaiians.

John McRage is doubling down, too. Incredible.

Hate is not a family value.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 9:13 PM | Report abuse

@noa,

I didn't know you were a gold bug.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:12 PM | Report abuse

Hey 12, I bought my gold at $800/troy. Sittin' pretty.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 9:09 PM | Report abuse

@moonbat,

I assume you dumped your long in GS.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Why the silence from Michael Steele; any guesses?

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 9:02 PM
-------------------------------------
Worst choice: support the bill.
Next worst choice: denounce the bill.
Better choice: Dummy up.
Best choice: Pray for the Rapture, soon.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Foaming ammonia.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Why the silence from Michael Steele; any guesses?

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 9:02 PM | Report abuse

"I want to have my teak brightened..."

Are you talking about a (tar and) teak deck?
If so, never, ever brighten it, only scrub it, with soap suds. Holy stones are a lot of work, but don't bleach teak zouk, ok? Can you promise me?

Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of Michael Steele, this is the last paragraph from the AZ Hispanic Republicans:

"The State of Arizona already has a blemish because we were the last state of the Union to recognize Martin Luther King as an official holiday. Arizona Hispanic Republicans will write an open letter to our RNC Chair, Michael Steele, as he continues to consider where to hold our next 2011 GOP convention. We will caution our RNC Chair to consider the consequences of that because then it could be perceived as rewarding the state that implemented strong anti-Hispanic laws that has rattled our community and our Civil Rights."

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:57 PM | Report abuse

Do any of the people you mention live in Arizona?? End of story.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:35 PM

I know I don't, and if they're going to start asking for papers, I don't dare go anywhere near the place.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:52 PM | Report abuse

12, great catch. I hadn't seen that.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:50 PM | Report abuse

Noacoler wrote,
'They had to go without dinner for two weeks to buy "Going Rogue."'

Just wait a couple of months. You'll be able to pick that up for no more than three times the cost of a Michael Moore DVD.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:50 PM | Report abuse

I think the Arizona law is going to be a good thing. It is unconstitutional and so, it calls the question. What does it mean to have a border?

Immigration reform is like health care reform and financial reform and education reform.

Liberals like free stuff I am told. Surely Republicans like free wars. Border politics? There is no free anything that matters (Kris Kristofferson).

Ok so there either is a border or there isn't. Still America can't figure out what is means.

America could dodge this question (the money from illegal migration flows to both parties), leaving the question unanswered, is profit, the markets you know.

But someday soon, we won't think it is a partisan issue any more.

Posted by: shrink2 | April 27, 2010 8:49 PM | Report abuse

remember the boycotting of Ca and Pete Wilson? Didn t work out too well for Gov Wilson; though maybe you are too young to remember.
In a strange way I don t want to see Az boycotted; there are too many real folks that I know there already suffering economically.
Loss of tourism dollars will be devistating.
Why the silence by Steele and Perry? perhaps they know its a lose/lose situation for their party.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

BHO has whiffed on a lot of fastballs (Skip Gates/living while black arrest, Jim "Tough Sh-t" Bunning, the bagger hate/spit rally, etc.). He cannot afford to miss on this AZ issue: Take your time, 44, line it up, take your stride, and boom. Out of the park. An O-Lympian speech on primetime.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:47 PM | Report abuse

It's Republicans who are going to be apoplectic, Brigade, we liberals are clinking glasses over this. It's just so cool to watch Republicans kick the lever of their own gallows.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:46 PM | Report abuse

Hey Ped. Do you know anything about negotiating boat repairs. I want to have my teak brightened but don't want to pay for little Bradleys braces.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 8:46 PM | Report abuse

More from the Statement of Arizona Hispanic Republicans:

"Arizona Hispanic Republicans will not vote for Jan Brewer this year because we are holding her accountable for supporting a bill that violates the Constitution and our Civil Rights. I have sounded the alarm to all Republicans in this state that the passing of this bill is political suicide."

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:44 PM | Report abuse

Neocolar wrote,
"Be as snarky as you like, this bill is completely anti-American.

Look at the dunces arrayed in favor."

I don't like the bill, either, but I'm not apoplectic.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

hahahah zouk plans a "high spending trip."

Getting any photography gigs yet? Kids' birthdays?

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

These guys are from Arizona:

The following is a statement from Arizona Hispanic Republicans in response to the passage of Senate Bill 1070:

Phoenix, AZ – Arizona Hispanic Republicans believe that it is unfortunate for Jan Brewer to support Pearce’s bill. The greatest leaders in our nation had courage, and we believe that Brewer made her decision in an effort to save her political career. Jan Brewer’s decision will mark today as the day in which Hispanic Americans will follow the footsteps of the Great Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr. Pearce and Brewer do not see the unintended consequences of their actions, and it appears that they were willing to make decisions that affect us at the cost of trampling on our Constitutional Rights.

http://www.fox11az.com/home/related/Statement-from--91948419.html

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

will be interesting to see Michael Steele squirm when asked about Az's profiling bill.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

Don't count on your little herds of teabaggers to pull Arizona's irons from the fire .. they don't have any money to spend. They had to go without dinner for two weeks to buy "Going Rogue."

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:40 PM | Report abuse

BOYCOTT!

Power to the People!

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:40 PM | Report abuse

So when berry eventually goes to AZ to prove he is eligible to be on the ballot next time, and the fraudulent paperwork is exposed, can they then deport him?

Excellent. I think I'll plan a high spending trip to AZ to encourage them.

Remember the lame boycott of glen beck? How's that loony leftist batty thing working out for you?

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Do any of the people you mention live in Arizona?? End of story.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:35 PM
-------------------------
No, Suzy, that is the point. The national Republicans are backpedaling from the AZ undoc law. The AZ Republicans are all alone with this deal.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

I think that was the GE Show, which also was good.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:38 PM | Report abuse

Yup, just look at the dunces arrayed in favor.

"End of story"

Idiot

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:38 PM | Report abuse

its great to see your lame posts back here tonight suzy; you can join 37th with your meaningless drivel."

Posted by: leichtman1

Actually, I don't think drivel is hear tonight.
Couldn't resist.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:36 PM | Report abuse

...Arizona Criminal Code, Section 234.23: Living While Brown.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

Today, they are flailing all over the place. The list is almost too long to remember: Huckabee, Rubio, Whitman, Rove, Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush...all distancing themselves.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:21 PM


Do any of the people you mention live in Arizona?? End of story.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR ARIZONA


Go to Arizona and patronize its businesses to counter-act the boycott.


Tell San Francisco they can not intimidate Arizona !


Go to Arizona - hike its trails - enjoy the spas - AND ASK SOMEONE FOR THEIR PAPERS.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

hey suzy that photo is really funny; have one with white sheets to share with us?

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe wrote,
"Death Valley Days was an excellent show but, no, the bagger president is a different Dale Robertson."

He did host that one, too, didn't he? I'll bet you really liked it the year Dutch Reagan was the host.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:33 PM | Report abuse

your party isn't just screwing the pooch, they're ganging on the poor thing

Posted by: Noacoler

ped always manages to slip in his weekend perversions.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Everyone, please be on the lookout for this vehicle if you travel in Arizona.

http://andrewandterry.net/ATImages/IllegalAliensChevy.jpg

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:30 PM | Report abuse

The AZ law is a long term problem for the GOP.

They can't instantly repeal it so it'll be on the books for awhile. Yes, a court might block it but politically they still would be blamed for passing the bill in the first place. I agree with L1, this is Pete Wilson's California folly all over again. A national disaster for the GOP. This bill is pure bigotry that can't be spun or tap danced around. Good grief, even Rubio backed away from it.

What's Michelle Maglagang saying about it?
Audra Shay? Drudge? Chip Saltsman? ...Fix?

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:30 PM | Report abuse

You can bet that Arizona businesses that depend on out of state money like tourism ARE quaking in their boots. Be as snarky as you like, this bill is completely anti-American.

Look at the dunces arrayed in favor.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:29 PM | Report abuse

So, the pro-immigration groups just want an OPEN BORDER SITUATION

Is that what it is ????


How long will it take the Supreme Court to declare the health care bill UNCONSTITUTIONAL ???


Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 8:29 PM | Report abuse


This poll is so lame...

the Special Olympics won't let it run.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | April 27, 2010 8:27 PM | Report abuse

SuzyCcup wrote,
"If his dog has papers, why doesn't he?"

The dog's papers are really his.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:27 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe wrote,
"NYT Linda Greenhouse is staging a one-woman boycott of Arizona!"

I'll bet they're quaking in their boots out there now.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:22 PM | Report abuse

It's not often that the Republicans fail to unite, especially on such an important policy matter as immigration reform. Today, they are flailing all over the place. The list is almost too long to remember: Huckabee, Rubio, Whitman, Rove, Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush...all distancing themselves.

This tells me that the Tea Party as it represents the most anti-immigrant position, is not in the driver's seat. When it cost nothing for mainstream Republicans to go along with Tea Party proposals, they did. But when it starts costing Hispanic voters, then R's bring down the hammer.

At least, it restores my faith in the intelligence of mainstream Republicans.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:21 PM | Report abuse

Brigade. The poster known as ddawd is the dumbest poster on this site. He makes the dim witted drivl look more towards a moron than an imbecile.

Posted by: Moonbat | April 27, 2010 8:19 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe wrote,
"Sorry to interrupt Fix's focus on "enthusiasm" polls and Dan Coats, the "anti-Obama," but..."

Stop all this shilly-shallying. Don't pull your punches. Tell us what you really think of Dan Coats and what Cillizza wrote about him. Neocolar?

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:18 PM | Report abuse

Hey Arizona, enjoy the boycott. Adios.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:18 PM | Report abuse

SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR ARIZONA


Go to Arizona and patronize its businesses to counter-act the boycott.


Tell San Francisco they can not intimidate Arizona !

Go to Arizona - hike its trails - enjoy the spas - AND ASK SOMEONE FOR THEIR PAPERS.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 8:16 PM | Report abuse

nothing predicts future behavior like past behavior, and past behavior has always been lie-and-deny.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:08 PM

Noacoler, excellent observation about obama! I couldn't have said it better.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:16 PM | Report abuse

Death Valley Days was an excellent show but, no, the bagger president is a different Dale Robertson.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:16 PM | Report abuse

by the way we don't want either McCain or his evil twin Leiberman, they are your's to keep.
they are too mavericky for Ds.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:16 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD wrote,
"The huge advantage Dems have in the somewhat enthusiastic category almost wipes out the huge advantage the Rs have in the very enthusiastic category. Republicans have an edge, but it's a meaningless edge given the time before the election, the inaccuracies of polling, and the subjectivity of the question."

Now go back and read this. Please stop!

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

its great to see your lame posts back here tonight suzy; you can join 37th with your meaningless drivel.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:12 PM | Report abuse

Thank you sooooo much, Jan Brewer, for signing the immigration bill. Figures, it took a woman to make a tough decision. Please boot McCain out of your state while you're at it. Just give him to the democrats.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:12 PM | Report abuse

Rubio's position today might be the first crack in R support, as he is their fair haired candidate who can do no wrong.
Hopefully CC will have nationally polling data on it soon.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:08 PM
_______________

That's a snark, right? The Fix posting a legit poll? LOL.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:12 PM | Report abuse

its great to see your lame posts back here tonight suzy' you can join 37th with your meaningless drivel.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

"DDAWD,
"I have to admit I was pretty worried about the Dems electoral fortunes a few weeks ago, but so much seems to have changed..."

Which goes to show what a totally futile effort it is to predict election outcomes this far in advance.

Posted by: Brigade "

Yeah, but we're all on here to play the game.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

Doesn't Joe Arpaio have some of those internment camps Leichtman1 was talking about up and running?

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:11 PM | Report abuse

Can't wait to see what Bizarro World logic or cherry picked poll Fix will use to spin this AZ set back as a GOP win. Governor Goddard. Sounds great. :)

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

the idiot politicians in Az forget what immigrant bashing did to the once POTUS plans of Gov. Pete Wilson in Ca. I remember the demonstrations in Ca that destroyed his once promising political career. Personally I think the bill cuts way beyond the hispanic vote and is not seen as the American way by libertarians like the Pauls and indy voters alike. We will see if the story has national implications. As soon as it does you will see McConnell and friends running as fast as they can and denying they ever supported it. Rubio's position today might be the first crack in R support, as he is their fair haired candidate who can do no wrong.
Hopefully CC will have nationally polling data on it soon.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

Now the GOP please-the-Base versus win-elections dilemma is in the spotlight.

Doesn't take a Nostradamus to see which they're going to choose ... nothing predicts future behavior like past behavior, and past behavior has always been lie-and-deny.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

If Arizona law enforcement is going to start asking people for "papers," obama should be the first one questioned. If his dog has papers, why doesn't he?

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

Wow, I do believe we've found an upper limit to GOP crazy. It wasn't the birth certificate, it wasn't the death panel, it wasn't blocking the prevention of another recession, but by god we've found it. Does it glow? I want to touch it.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 8:06 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe wrote,
"I'll take that issue up with Bagger founder and president Dale Robertson. . ."

Now is that the same Dale Robertson who starred in TALES OF WELLS FARGO back about the time you were watching BRANDED?

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:06 PM | Report abuse

Right about now, AZ Republicans must be hearing the sound of the branch they are sitting on, being sawed off by their own party.

It's beginning to sound like Republicans all over the country are rushing to distance themselves from the AZ undoc law.

The division between the extreme right who are cheering this law, and the mainstream Republicans who are worried about losing Hispanic voters, couldn't be more obvious.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:05 PM | Report abuse

question will be whether those plumetting hispanic polls numbers for Brewer will translate nationally to Ca, Nevada and Texas campaigns. Noticed that Meg Whitman is already running from it. Et tu Rick Perry?
Chuck Todd, Charlie Cook, and CC might want to start reassessing their Nov. predictions.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 7:55 PM
______

Rubio is backing away, too. :)

The organized hate machine is having a major meltdown.

BHO needs to tee this up and knock it 300 yards.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 8:04 PM | Report abuse

Noticed that Meg Whitman is already running from it. Et tu Rick Perry?
Chuck Todd, Charlie Cook, and CC might want to start reassessing their Nov. predictions.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 7:55 PM

Texas will be the next state to pass a law similar to the Arizona law. Go Rick Perry!

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 8:03 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD,
"I have to admit I was pretty worried about the Dems electoral fortunes a few weeks ago, but so much seems to have changed..."

Which goes to show what a totally futile effort it is to predict election outcomes this far in advance.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 8:02 PM | Report abuse

@leichtman,

You are right on the mark. Here's Meg Whitman's quote today:


SACRAMENTO, Calif.—Meg Whitman, the Republican front-runner in the California gubernatorial primary, said Tuesday that Arizona is taking the wrong approach to illegal immigration with its tough new law.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_14968509

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 8:00 PM | Report abuse

NYT Linda Greenhouse is staging a one-woman boycott of Arizona!

From HuffPo:

"I'm not going back to Arizona as long as it remains a police state, which is what the appalling anti-immigrant bill that Gov. Jan Brewer signed into law last week has turned it into.

...a law that requires the police to demand proof of legal residency from any person with whom they have made "any lawful contact" and about whom they have "reasonable suspicion" that "the person is an alien who is unlawfully present in the United States?" Wasn't the system of internal passports one of the most distasteful features of life in the Soviet Union and apartheid-era South Africa?"
________________

Sounds like the beginning of a GOP in trouble TRUE narrative.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:58 PM | Report abuse

Better get used to living in the sidelines, Suzy, your party isn't just screwing the pooch, they're ganging on the poor thing

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 7:57 PM | Report abuse

I wonder if Brewer is just too conservative for Arizona. Remember that she was never elected governor. She rose to the spot when Obama tapped Janet Napolitano for SecDHS. Brewer actually overturned some of the laws enacted by her predecessor.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 7:56 PM | Report abuse

An O-lympian speech on anti-immigrant bigotry would be a grand slam about now.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:44 PM

Just like his grand slam attempt to bring the O-lympics to the murder capital of the US. What a joke.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | April 27, 2010 7:56 PM | Report abuse

question will be whether those plumetting hispanic polls numbers for Brewer will translate nationally to Ca, Nevada and Texas campaigns. Noticed that Meg Whitman is already running from it. Et tu Rick Perry?
Chuck Todd, Charlie Cook, and CC might want to start reassessing their Nov. predictions.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 7:55 PM | Report abuse

Governor Goddard, your limousine to the State Capitol is ready. Here's your first day agenda...Mrs. Brewer already has removed her things from the mansion. Que bueno.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:48 PM | Report abuse

Didn't Romney recently go around Utah campaigning for Bennett?
What will that say for his POTUS plans in 2012 when he can't even pull out a win in Utah?

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Sorry to interrupt Fix's focus on "enthusiasm" polls and Dan Coats, the "anti-Obama," but...

BREAKING NEWS:
"State Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) leads Republican incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer in Arizona's 2010 gubernatorial election, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling released on Tuesday.

The poll finds Goddard ahead of Brewer 47 percent to 44 percent in what is becoming an increasingly competitive match-up. An earlier poll from several weeks ago found the candidates to be locked in a tight contest, highlighting a dramatic shift in the race since last fall when the Arizona governor held a 10-point lead over her Democratic challenger.

Hispanic voters also appear to be flocking to Goddard -- his support among that group has more than doubled since September. Hispanics prefer Goddard over Brewer by a 71 percent to 25 percent margin, according to the poll.

The new poll comes in the aftermath of Brewer's decision to enact a controversial immigration bill into state law making it a crime to be in the country illegally."

Sounds like a Rasmussen poll. Kinda guess Hispanic support is probably closer to .1% There are always some Michelle Maglagang/Stockholm Syndrome types who'll vote for Brewer.

Guess Fix just missed this news story...LOL.
_______________

Now if only BHO can finish this off and knock it out the park. An O-lympian speech on anti-immigrant bigotry would be a grand slam about now.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:44 PM | Report abuse

exactly as I predicted:

"(CNN) -- Millions of visitors flock to Arizona each year to relax in beautiful places like the Grand Canyon, Lake Havasu and the resort town of Sedona, but a political storm is threatening to impact the state's tourism"

anyone who has visited Az lately will understand how Az's tourism and housing industry is already suffering. If this story pans out you might hear the word Brewer impeachment raised soon by Arizona businesses. Sounds like sadly like this profiling bill is toxic to the already precarious Az economy.

Tourism is an $18 billion reveue raiser in Az and unfortunately for that beautiful state it will hurt them precisely the same way as when they refused to honor MLK day. Its really stupid business on their part.

Posted by: leichtman1 | April 27, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

Wouldn't you think the AZ governor would run the AZ undoc law through due diligence, including an appeal opinion. I bet the governor is busy getting the appeal going, because the sooner the law is suspended, the sooner the lawsuit exposure is squelched. Then, the governor can say "well, I certainly tried to get this thing enacted, but what can you do when the judge stops you".

Drindl found a quote from an AZ police chief who says a lot of small towns don't even have cops. Maybe they're the lucky ones.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 7:40 PM | Report abuse

lol, BB, that is way over my head. I just made a 3x4 and rref'd it. I know the TI83 graphing calculator has it, but I don't have that on me. I just did the calculations on a spreadsheet. I checked the math, it works. My numbers are different than Gallup's. I'd trust theirs more since it was empirically determined and not calculated. Their total population adds up to 97%. Plus, it's a little more instructive for looking at worst case scenarios for Dems.

It doesn't really matter, though. The huge advantage Dems have in the somewhat enthusiastic category almost wipes out the huge advantage the Rs have in the very enthusiastic category. Republicans have an edge, but it's a meaningless edge given the time before the election, the inaccuracies of polling, and the subjectivity of the question.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 7:40 PM | Report abuse

Arizona is doing the right thing, trying to deport the illegal aliens.


There is no reason why they shouldn't be allowed to enforce the federal law.


At no point, has anyone considered the situation in which the federal government would not enforce immigration laws - and we would have such a situation.


Please show your license.

What is wrong with that??? If you are here legally, it is NOT an excessive burden. Just like asking Obama to sign a release and show us what is in the file at the Dept of Health in Hawaii is not too much of a burden.

None of you have an answer to that.

None.

.


Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 7:34 PM | Report abuse

Assuming the law goes into effect, which I would say is doubtful, it's only a matter of time, probably a week or less, before a cop shoots someone reaching for his ID. "I thought he was reachin' fer a gunnnnnn."

And when the guy turns out to be an American-born solid citizen with three small children whose crying faces make the front page, "Gov." Brewer is going to wish she could crawl back into her mother's womb. While defending her idiotic law. You know, "the system worked" or some such BS.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 7:33 PM | Report abuse

I couldn't resist:

Let M be the 3x3 matrix [37,52,46;57,38,42;6,10,12].
Let R be the vector [x,y,z]
Let S be the vector [45,46,9]

In tensor form:

M_ij*R+i = S_j

find the inverse of M and multiply both sides by it. Call that matrix N_ij.

{N_ij M_ij} R_i = N_ij S_j

As N = 1/M (technically, it's the inverse), one gets:

R_i = N_ij S_j

Q.E.D.

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | April 27, 2010 7:31 PM | Report abuse

The Tea Party Movement is not a hate group.

==

yeah and a dog is not a mammal, a car is not a vehicle, and the Pope isn't a Catholic.

what a moron you are

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 7:29 PM | Report abuse

broadwayjoe


I think he did - and he isn't the president - but you contintue to insist on lying about that.


You STILL have not told us what happened between you and those white girls?

Please tell.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 7:28 PM | Report abuse

-- wait until all these little AZ towns get flooded with lawsuits from their fringe elements.

As one AZ police chief said, a lot of these these places can't even afford cops. how are they going to afford lawyers and lawsuits?

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 7:27 PM | Report abuse

broadwayjoe


How do you like the liberal rallies in Pheonix and Seattle which spin out of control and they get violent???

Really bad image for America, huh?


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 7:25 PM | Report abuse

37, I'll take that issue up with Bagger founder and president Dale Robertson as soon as he puts down his misspelled n-word sign.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:24 PM | Report abuse

dddawd

You might want to take a look at gallup itself - and see if they have the breakdown you want


I can see you want to know what percentage of each enthusiasm level breaks down within each party

http://www.gallup.com/poll/127553/Enthusiastic-Voters-Prefer-GOP-Points-2010-Vote.aspx


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 7:22 PM | Report abuse

noa, I like the bagger rallies where the media shows up in full strength but only 23 baggers show up.

What to do? Well, the TV guys only show closeups and tight shots of the baggers and imply hundreds, nay, thousands are in attendance. Even Murdoch backed away from endorsing the baggers, forcing Hannity to cancel an appearance at a bagger event, as we understand it.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

Klan/teabagger "euthusiasm"? 98.7 percent. And that's just 'cause Emmitt, Goober, and Earnest T. Bass couldn't read the poll question. Otherwise it would have been 100 percent.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

I have to admit I was pretty worried about the Dems electoral fortunes a few weeks ago, but so much seems to have changed as the Republican party has really swerved right.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 7:00 PM
----------------------------------
I'm also confused. One day, the R party swerves right (AZ undoc law), then national Republicans criticize it (!). A lot of cross currents going on right now. Bennett and Graham are not conservative enough, then Scott Brown passes the screen, and he's tacking left. Go figure.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

broadwayjoe


The Tea Party Movement is not a hate group.

You, on the other hand, are a one man hate group.


I bet you even hate yourself.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

"There is one provision—allowing any citizen to challenge in superior court law-enforcement officers or any government agents who fail to live up to the new law—that opponents say is so bad, it's good. According to Latina Lista, "This section may actually be one of those things that comes and bites the state of Arizona in the ass. It allows for everyday citizens—in addition to the Minutemen, Tea Party and other racist extremists—to bring to court any law enforcement agency or city official deemed not enforcing the full extent of the immigration law." That's quite an image."
____________

They have a special provision to benefit the tea baggers and other hate groups...

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 7:05 PM | Report abuse

12BB, I don't know that it is waning. If Bob Bennett is considered too liberal, this might really be a sign that the Republican party is going to collapse on itself. I know it's Utah, but still. I didn't think it would get much nuttier than to call Lindsey Graham a RINO. Obviously Republicans keep the seat no matter what, but you have to wonder how far the teabaggers are pushing things in Senate races like Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Eventually some of the extreme right candidates are going to get locked in and if the electorate starts swinging to the left in response to the job situation improving, health care benefits kicking in, Dems passing/Repubs blocking finreg, Dems passing/Repubs blocking immigration reform, then those extremists will be in big trouble. I have to admit I was pretty worried about the Dems electoral fortunes a few weeks ago, but so much seems to have changed as the Republican party has really swerved right.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 7:00 PM | Report abuse

They've been waning from the start. That first big rally of theirs attracted a lot of people, the ones since have been sparsely attended. The press has tried to keep the movement alive but now that's like trying to raise the blood pressure of a dead patient.

Way to go, Arizona, drive more voters away from the GOP. Now maybe Mitch and John could come up with a purity test for the remainder or something.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 6:57 PM | Report abuse

Considering the hoopla over how best to deal with illegal immigration, I decided to insert part of an article by Clark Kauffman which appeared in today's Des Moines Register. The aggrieved parties were neither illegal nor Hispanic, but you'll notice a similarity of predicament.
You could never make up this stuff.

"An attorney for Henry's Turkey Service said Monday that the company's mentally retarded workers were content to spend the past 34 years gutting turkeys for 41 cents an hour in an eastern Iowa processing plant.

"'They lived well,' said David Scieszinski, attorney for the Texas labor broker. 'They were a happy group.'

"Scieszinski made the comments during an administrative hearing over a $900,000 penalty the state of Iowa has levied against Henry's Turkey Service for alleged labor-law violations. Henry's owners, Jane Ann Johnson and Kenneth Henry of Texas, are appealing the fine.

"Between 1974 and 2009, Henry's housed at least 65 mentally retarded men in a century-old Atalissa school building that had been converted to a bunkhouse. The men worked at West Liberty Foods, but collected all of their pay from Henry's. The Texas company deducted from the men's paychecks all but $65 per month, with the rest of their earnings retained by Henry's to offset the cost of food, shelter, and care.

"The bunkhouse was closed by the state fire marshal in February 2009. At the time, the building was infested with cockroaches, had no central heat and was cited for numerous fire-saftey violations."

There's more, but you get the idea. We can only hope that none of the laborers was arrested for gutting turkeys without a permit.

If you're wondering, I've never worked for Henry's Turkey Service. I'm not sure about Broadwayjoe or 37th.

Posted by: Brigade | April 27, 2010 6:52 PM | Report abuse

This poll is totally bogus. Nuff said.
No more faux polls, let's wait for the real one, on election day.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | April 27, 2010 6:51 PM | Report abuse

When nationally prominent Republicans come out criticizing the AZ undoc law, it tells me that the far right wing does not have the hold on the national Republican party we've been advised. Even Marco Rubio, who allegedly is the posterboy of the Tea Party, feels comfortable enough to criticize the bill.

Does this mean that the Tea Party influence is fast waning?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | April 27, 2010 6:46 PM | Report abuse

Oh, and just now -- Jeb Bush:

"Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is speaking out against the new hard-line immigration law in Arizona, becoming the first prominent national Republican to do so.

"I think it creates unintended consequences," he said in a telephone interview with POLITICO Tuesday. "It's difficult for me to imagine how you're going to enforce this law. It places a significant burden on local law enforcement and you have civil liberties issues that are significant as well."

The measure, signed into law last Friday, would require police to check the immigration status of any individuals they reasonably suspect are illegal immigrants and arrest them if they can't prove legal status.

Bush said he understood the anger that prompted the bill, but that immigration should remain a federal issue.

"I don't think this is the proper approach," he said.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36427.html#ixzz0mLJNBYVf

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 6:36 PM | Report abuse

Rubio comes out against AZ profiling, then Lindsay Graham. And now, Karl Rove:

'Chief political strategist for former President Bush, Karl Rove, has joined the growing list of Republicans to come out against Arizona’s new immigration law.

Rove, speaking to a crowd of about 500 at the mammoth senior community as part of a national book tour, said that while the law is understandable, it does present difficulties. The law has become the nation’s toughest anti-immigration measure. “I think there is going to be some constitutional problems with the bill,” he said to the standing-room-only crowd at the Colony Cottage Recreation Center. “I wished they hadn’t passed it, in a way.”

Rove suggested that there are “better tools” to tackle the immigration issue. In the past, Rove has stated that one tool could involve passing immigration reform. He has stated that one of his biggest regrets was not leading Bush’s second term with immigration reform. “If we had led with immigration reform at the beginning of the second term we could have had bipartisan cooperation with a Republican majority in the House and the Senate and done something important for the country,” said Rove. "

So you see, Rove is now a liberal. Imagine his surprise.

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 6:33 PM | Report abuse

Anyone see this?

http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_14964318

Looks like Bob Bennett of Utah is in big trouble for his primary election.

Currently running in third.

From what I understand, this isn't a popular vote poll. This is a poll of Utah Republican delegates. They determine the ballot for the Senate primary. The top two delegate vote getters make it on the ballot.

Bennett is polling third. It's still volatile given how close he is to #2 and that a third of the delegates are undecided. But this is really shocking.

So first Arlen Specter isn't sufficiently conservative. Then it's Crist. Then it's McCain, then it's Lindsey Graham. And now it's Bob Bennett??? This guy is not a RINO by any reasonable standard.

The death spiral continues.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 6:27 PM | Report abuse

So given the weights I calculated for each enthusiasm level, you can also assign a likelihood of voting. Just for the heck of it, I assigned a 75% chance of voting for a very enthusiastic voter, 50% for an enthusiastic and 25% for a non enthusiastic. Obviously I'm pulling these numbers out of my a*s. You can change the numbers if you want. I think I'm actually being generous to Republicans here.

But with those numbers, you've got essentially a tie between Dems and Rs. A very slight advantage to Rs of like a few percent. Even if you use the Gallup provided weights.

I guess the thing to take away is that the enthusiasm gap essentially evaporates when you consider the inaccuracies of polling and the vagaries of the question.

And I wonder if there's a relative effect here. I'm going to vote, I'm excited about voting, but compared to voting for Obama? I can't say I'm at that same peak. And Republicans were lukewarm about McCain, so in a relative sense, they are more excited now than they were then. So I wonder if a Democratic "very enthusiastic" is equivalent to a Republican "very enthusiastic" in terms of likelihood of either actually voting.

I'm not saying there's anything definitive. In fact, I'm saying the opposite. The closer you look at this, the less apparent it is that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 6:00 PM | Report abuse

"@drindl: Wow did we nail it on McDonnell. Whatever problems Virginia might have can't possibly be as important as the thwarted right to pack heat while getting drunk."

yeah, I wonder how all the good folks who voted for McDonnell thinking he was a 'moderate' are going to like it when thugs start shooting up their favorite watering holes.

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

scrivener's posts remind me of that incomparable Justin Green comic "Binky Brown Meets the Holy Virgin Mary"

Noyatin! Noyatin!!

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 5:23 PM | Report abuse

Liberal enthusiasm starts with cash from Obama's stash.

Posted by: leapin | April 27, 2010 5:10 PM | Report abuse

Attention A.W.O.L. mainstream media:

Attention must be paid to a covert American silent holocaust...

HOMELAND-RUN FUSION CENTERS SILENTLY ATTACK, IMPAIR 'TARGETED' AMERICANS WITH CELL TOWER MICROWAVE/RADIO FREQUENCY WEAPON SYSTEM: VETERAN JOURNO

• Victims' plea: "MR. OBAMA, TEAR DOWN THOSE HOMELAND CELLULAR TORTURE TOWERS."

http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-silently-tortures-americans-cell-tower-microwaves
http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america
OR NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: "Obama: Take Down Fusion Center Gestapo, Fire Secret Service Boss"

Posted by: scrivener50 | April 27, 2010 5:04 PM | Report abuse

I think I figured it out. I made some assumptions like having everything add up to 100% and also the assumption that there is no overlap between the groups. I also assumed that there aren't other categories of voter enthusiasm. As well as the assumption that there are no voters that fall outside of one of the 9 categories (3 voting choices x 3 enthusiasm levels)

I also made the assumption that I know what the heck I'm doing. I took linear algebra when I was like 16.

My own calculations
37% very enthusiastic
39% somewhat enthusiastic
24% not enthusiastic

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 4:42 PM | Report abuse

The Repugs are doing everything in their power to turn a fall election, which should favor them (the minority party always picks up seats after a Pres election) into another disaster for themselves.

2/3rds of Americans Support Wall Street Reform But Senate Republicans Block It

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/27/23-of-americans-support-financial-reform-but-senate-gop-blocks-it/


The 1/3 of Americans who enjoy being robbed by the big Wall Street robber barons are the "Real-American" Teabagger Republicans who think that being fleeced by a bunch of Wall Street greedheads is a point of pride. The rest of us are clearly failing to perform our patriotic duty of fellating Wall Street.


Heckuva Job, Wingnuts! I knew you would blow it!

Posted by: DrainYou | April 27, 2010 4:39 PM | Report abuse

@DDAWD: that's just simultaneous equations, you can solve them algebraically, find the values of X, Y, and Z.

@drindl: Wow did we nail it on McDonnell. Whatever problems Virginia might have can't possibly be as important as the thwarted right to pack heat while getting drunk. What a god damn moron.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

oops, minor mistake

37x+52y+46z=45 (Dems)
57x+38y+42z=46 (Rs)
6x+10y+12z=9 (other)

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

"Earlier this month, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) signed legislation allowing “concealed carry permit holders to bring loaded handguns” into establishments that serve alcohol. The law allows permit holders to carry guns in restaurants, “as long as the holders do not consume alcohol.” A leading Virginia gun lobby is now arguing that the law unfairly stigmatizes gun carriers as second-class citizens because there is an exception that “allows law-enforcement officers and commonwealth’s attorneys to carry concealed weapons and consume alcohol.” Philip Van Cleave, leader of the Virginia Citizens Defense League, complained, “We’re not allowed to drink, but they (law enforcement officials) can. … That’s two classes of citizens.” But Van Cleave has a solution:

Van Cleave said one proposed bill would allow no one but an on-duty officer doing undercover work to drink alcohol while carrying a concealed weapon. The other bill will say that anyone can carry a concealed gun and drink if they wish."

Sure glad I don't live in VA. But sounds like a good way to solve those bar fights on a permanent basis and get rid of some useless gun nuts in the process.

Of course the police oppose this, but Republicans don't even pretend to care about the 'rule of law' anymore.

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

I think it's something called reduced row echelon. You use them to solve a series of linear equations.

Like
37x+52y+46z=45 (Dems)
57x+38y+42x=46 (Rs)
6x+10y+12x=9 (other)

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

It's meaningless. I am only 'somewhat' enthusiastic about voting, because I can see no mattter how many Dems we elect, the Rs will still find a way to be as8holes and obstruct the process. But I am still planning on working for a local candidate, manning phone banks, getting out the vote any way I can, and of course, voting, which I never miss.

What people say in polls has not much bearing on what they actually do.

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD, that info is available from Gallup if you dig around on their site.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125753/Enthusiasm-Voting.aspx

This week's poll had 35% Very, 27% Somewhat, and 35% Not enthusiastic. So the group most favorable to Democrats is the smallest of the three.

Posted by: Blarg | April 27, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

"Well, the liberals are all talking jibberish today.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | "


That is the single most hilarious thing I have seen today. From the Jibberish King himself.

Posted by: drindl | April 27, 2010 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Yeah DDAWD matrices were the bane of my math curriculum, 200-level stuff that I only finished in my last year, alongside the 400 level classes. Gotta know that stuff cold for quantum mechanics.

Solve .. you mean get the eigenvalues? Diagonalize it?

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

Noa, do you know anything about matrix math? I constructed a matrix, but I have no idea how to solve it.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

I think the chart would be more instructive if the breakdown was vertical rather than horizontal. As in, take the D voters and break it down into very, somewhat, and not. Instead what they appeared to have done is take each level of enthusiasm and broken it down into D and R.

So we know that among the very enthusiastic voters, they will most likely be voting R. We also know that among somewhat enthusiastic voters, there are a lot more D voters. But if there's a huge disparity between size of groups, that makes a difference. If the "somewhat" group is 10x the size of the "very" group, that's an edge for Dems. If the sizes of the groups are about equal, that's an advantage for the Rs.

Posted by: DDAWD | April 27, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

Yeah no words because any words would need to get around to the fact that Republican enthusiasm is 100% negative. Anger, rage, bloodlust, bigotry, desire for vengeance.

No ideas, no positive vision. Just nihilism and hate.

Once again Cillizza weaves a scrap of polling into the tapestry of "national environment favoring Republicans." Selling out for access.

Posted by: Noacoler | April 27, 2010 3:48 PM | Report abuse

Well, the liberals are all talking jibberish today.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | April 27, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company