Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity

The FINAL House Line: The Top 50!

As we wrote this morning in our final Senate Line, it's hard to believe but this is the last time we get to handicap 2008 House races. (Of course, the great thing about the House is that the next election starts the day after this one ends -- so no need to be too sad.)

Of the 50 seats that made our final cut, more than 80 percent (41) are currently held by Republicans -- a sign of the huge vulnerabilities present on the GOP side next Tuesday.

So, how big can Democrats gains be? In a neutral political year, the two parties typically split the most competitive races. But, in a year as lopsided as this one, history suggests that a majority of toss ups will break in Democrats' favor on Tuesday.

If that happens, Democrats could pick up anywhere between 25 and 35 seats. The most likely scenario is between 25 and 30.

Because writing 50 district updates is just too much for any one man (and the Fix is just one man), the only races we are breaking out in this Line are those that moved more than five spots -- up or down -- from our most recent top 50 rankings. (Those major movers are listed alphabetically below.)

To the Line!

Colorado's 4th district (R): Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) barely squeaked by a below-average challenger in 2006 but the combination of a terrible environment for GOPers in Colorado and a well-funded and aggressive campaign by Democrat Betsy Markey is likely to end Musgrave's congressional career in four days time. (Moved from 17 to eight.)

Idaho's 1st district (R): Unlike many of his GOP colleagues, Rep. Bill Sali is not in trouble because of the national Democratic wave; John McCain will easily carry Idaho. Sali simply is not liked by his constituents; in a recent Survey USA poll for Roll Call just 33 percent of those surveyed felt favorably toward the incumbent while 47 percent felt unfavorably. In that same survey, Sali trailed Democrat Walt Minnick 51 percent to 46 percent. (Moved from 39 to 30.)

Illinois' 10th district (R): Rep. Mark Kirk (R) does everything right; he has a moderate voting record that generally fits his affluent North Shore district to a tee and raises millions of dollars to get his message out. Unfortunately for Kirk, he is running in a Democratic leaning district with home state Sen. Barack Obama leading the ticket, against Dan Seals, a telegenic candidate who took 47 percent of the vote in 2006. (Moved onto the Line at 48.)

Michigan's 9th district (R): Rep. Joe Knollenberg's (R) campaign has run out of gas against Democratic state Sen. Gary Peters. Polling shows Peters pulling ahead and McCain's underperformance in this swing district likely dooms the eight-term GOP incumbent. (Moved from 27 to nine.)

Nebraska's 2nd district (R): After taking 45 percent against Rep. Lee Terry (R) in 2006, Democrat Jim Esch just kept running -- and that perseverance may well pay off. A poll conducted earlier this month for Esch showed the contest a statistical dead heat and both parties confirm that Terry is in serious trouble. The National Republican Congressional Committee has a brutal ad up slamming Esch but it may be too little, too late. (Moved from 44 to 29.)

New Hampshire's 1st district (D): In a different election, Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D), who won in something of a fluke two years ago, would be VERY vulnerable. But with Obama seemingly surging in the Granite State and Shea Porter having (finally) accepted the help and advice of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee she looks increasingly safe. (Moved from 14 to 39.)

New Mexico's 2nd district (R): This southern New Mexico open seat has moved strongly in Democrats' direction of late. Businessman Ed Tinsley (R) is, inexplicably, not on television in the final days of the race and the NRCC is not on the district airwaves either. So, with four days until the election, the entire Republican side is dark. Wow. That is stunningly bad. Democrat Harry Teague is a strong favorite. (Moved from 24 to 17.)

New York's 26th district (R): In this political environment, any northeastern district being vacated by a Republican incumbent has to be considered in serious jeopardy. This Buffalo-area seat -- held by Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) from 1998 until now -- is playing host to a quite competitive race between attorney Alice Kryzan, the surprise winner of the Democratic primary, and businessman Chris Lee who is Reynolds' chosen heir. Lee dropped $230,000 of his own money on the race in recent days and a new poll shows him with a comfortable edge, but Republicans are still nervous. (Moved onto the Line at 40.)

North Carolina's 8th district (R): In 2006, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) beat unknown Democrat Larry Kissell by 329 votes. Two years later Kissell is back and far better organized and funded. And, in a district where one in every four voters is black, Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket should help Kissell. A bellwether race to keep an eye on. (Moved from 34 to 25.)

Ohio's 2nd district (R): Democrats are feeling increasingly confident about Obama's chances of winning Ohio and believe the Illinois senator could bring in a handful of House members with him. Voters in this Cincinnati-area seat don't like Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) but they don't like 2006 nominee Vic Wulsin (D) either. Of the four House seats being seriously contested in Ohio, this one is the toughest for Democrats to win. But, in a year like this one, it's possible. (Moved from 49 to 42.)

Pennsylvania's 12th district (D): Rep. Jack Murtha's (D) penchant for -- how to say it -- straight talk has long been one of his political trademarks. But his recent comments about the views of western Pennsylvania voters (a.k.a. his constituents) on race has turned Murtha's race competitive over night. Both national party committees are spending money in the district and a new independent poll showed Murtha up only four over his previously unknown Republican opponent. (Moved onto the Line at 49.)

Virginia's 2nd district (R): Rep. Thelma Drake (R) entered this cycle without having set roots in this southern Virginia district, and now with Obama running strong in the area Drake is in serious trouble. Democrat Glenn Nye is new to the political game and has made his share of errors but in a district where 21 percent of the population is African American, a huge black turnout for Obama could carry Nye over the line. (Moved from 42 to 28.)

Virginia's 5th district (R): It took a long time -- way too long -- for Rep. Virgil Goode (R) to realize he was in a real race against Democrat Tom Perriello. And now, Goode continues to struggle to beat back a story about his ties to a movie called "Eden's Curve" that documents the life of a gay man in college. (Moved from 50 to 44.)

Washington's 8th district (R): In an election with almost no good news for House Republicans, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) might well provide a rare silver lining. Despite a growing Democratic-tilt in his Seattle-area seat, Reichert is hanging tough in a rematch against Democrat Darcy Burner and GOP strategists believe his fame in the district -- as King County sheriff he helped catch the Green River Killer -- could insulate him from the toxic national environment. Still, this is a VERY tough hold for the GOP. (Moved from 21 to 34.)

Wisconsin's 8th district (D): State Rep. John Gard is one of Republicans' best recruits in this election cycle. But, he is running in a tough year for anyone with an "R" after his name and McCain's struggles in Wisconsin of late have badly hamstrung Gard's chances of upsetting Rep. Steve Kagen (D) in a rematch of their 2006 race. (Moved from 25 to 43.)

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 31, 2008; 2:29 PM ET
Categories:  House , The Line  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Who's Got The Momentum?
Next: The Dole Ad: Over the Line?

Comments

Check this out... the Texas 10th. In 2006 an unknown unfunded Democrat was within 5%. This year a Houston lawyer and TV judge is running a well funded campaign. McCaul has no ground game and Larry Joe is got an Obama like ground game. Watch for an upset in this distinct, the results of Tom Delay's gerrymandering. This race is within the margin of error and I think it is about turnout.

Posted by: bradcpa | November 3, 2008 8:23 AM | Report abuse

What do McCain and Custer have in common?

They both finished at the bottom of their class at West Point.

Posted by: kparc | November 3, 2008 6:47 AM | Report abuse

PA. - VA. and FL. will all go to McCain.

And will someone please see that DorchesterAndCongress takes his medications.

Posted by: kparc | November 3, 2008 6:41 AM | Report abuse

OH-6 is a typo right? I assume that should be OH-16. The 6th is safely held by Charlie Wilson (D) unless something strange has just happened, a la Tim Mahoney.

Posted by: JonSM99 | November 3, 2008 1:19 AM | Report abuse


.


.

McCain and Sarah have the momentum.

.


.


If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.


OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.


Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.


WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.


WAKE UP AMERICA.


.


.


Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.


Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.


Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.


Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.


Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.


Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.


Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.


Exactly right he's secretive. Just look at his lack of birth certificate, SAT scores, grades, etc. etc., etc.


Exactly right he'll be challenged in his first 6 months of office if elected. Just look at what he says about meeting unconditionally with world leaders.


We cannot be SERIOUS about electing this guy!! Obama in charge of nukes?! What. The.


Sorry George Washington, we messed everything up.


We stopped demanding the best people in the White House.


.


.

Posted by: DorchesterAndCongress | November 2, 2008 7:45 AM | Report abuse

I thought it funny how Peter(IL6)Roskam's ads on TV don't show his party affiliation.

He's Repub

Posted by: jime2000 | November 1, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

The media seems to have been covering for Biden for some time. While news stories still talk about Dan Quayle’s spelling mistake 18 years later, there has been almost no news coverage of Biden’s numerous wacky statements. What if Quayle had said something similar to Biden’s recent statement that, "When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, 'Look, here's what happened.'" A neat trick given that Herbert Hoover was president in 1929 and no one was watching television.

It might not fit the simple template for a 36-year veteran of the Senate to not understand what vice presidents do (after all, eight vice presidents have served with him), but Biden knew less about this than the political outsider, Sarah Palin. Given that they are running to be vice president, why didn’t that story dominate the news coverage after the debate?
-- Finally, an amusing point as evidence that Biden is just one of the people he pointed to, inviting anyone to have a beer with him at "Katie's Restaurant" in Wilmington, Del. Unfortunately, people will have a hard time taking him up on his offer, since the restaurant hasn't had that name for probably 15 years.

Posted by: lucygirl1 | November 1, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

Democrats have a real chance to gain 4 Congressional seats here in Ohio alone, with Republican retirements in the 16th District in Northern Ohio centered on Canton and the 15th District centered on Columbus in Central Ohio, and Democrats favored to win both seats. The 16th is already a done deal, and the Dem candidate in the 15th appears to have a 6-10 point lead. There is also the possibility of taking out the Republican incumbents in the 1st District, centered on Cincinnati, and the 2nd District centered on Cincy's eastern suburbs and including rural and small town Ohio river counties stretching further east.

My bet is that Democrats will gain 3 seats in Ohio, taking Ohio-1, OH-15, and OH-16, turning an 11-7 deficit in Ohio Congressional seats into a 10-8 advantage.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 31, 2008 11:07 PM | Report abuse

Since many of you don't have the pleasure of living in the Pacific Northwest, don't miss this award-winning performace by (WA-08) challenger Darcy Burner as she attempts to "defend" her lies to voters on her college degree: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnhybrxEEVw

Posted by: redwa08 | October 31, 2008 10:32 PM | Report abuse

#10 should read OH 16, right? OH 16 is where Dem John Boccieri is going to win and succeed Repub Ralph Regula; it currently says "OH 6" which is a safe Dem seat (Charlie Wilson)

And it is going to be a good night Tuesday!

Posted by: wendybirdohio | October 31, 2008 9:46 PM | Report abuse

southeasterner wrote, "How exactly are you doing your job as a senator if you missed more than 60% of the votes?"

Well, maybe you were running for president in this torture system we have set up within which the next presidential election begins about a week after the current president's inauguration. (See "Palin, Sarah").

I doubt that Obama (who has my vote) has a much better record than McCain on the stat you cite.

Good arguments, please.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 31, 2008 9:42 PM | Report abuse

popasmoke wrote, in part, "I have a very hard time watching and listening to John Mccain as he spews his lies and venom. John Mccain is a piece of filth and I lack the vocabulary to even put into words what a phony he really is."

With all due respect to your credentials - and they merit the highest respect - your rhetoric is unworthy of a participant in a nation trained in the habits of democracy.

John McCain is not a piece of filth, he is a man who has led a distinguished life, running for office in an election in which you (and I) favor his opponent.

Were he to be elected, we would all, I should think, owe him our prayers, best wishes, and support in his effort to govern us well.

When partisan rhetoric gets too sharp, I think we come dangerously close to those systems where politicians from the party out of power face prison or the guillotine. That has not yet been the way we do business in the USA, and I hope it never becomes the way we do business.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 31, 2008 9:05 PM | Report abuse

As an expatriate Pittsburgher I'll be curious to see how Johnstown's Murtha comes out after having characterized his constituents as racist. The interest is heightened by the especially hard line he took against the Iraq war during the most recent session of congress.

He's getting so old he can't stop his brain from connecting with his mouth, by which I mean to say that he well knows that many of his constituents will vote Republican at the top of the ticket this year because the man at the top of the Dem ticket is black. In his younger days whichever part of the brain regulates tongue-wagging might have prevented him from making this unfortunate observation, which will probably just excite the racists further.

Even so, I'm calling that one for Murtha, and I'd say that if he loses, it bodes ill for Dems in 2010 unless Obama's elected and indeed heals a very sickly nation.

Studs Terkel, RIP - you will be missed.

Posted by: officermancuso | October 31, 2008 8:51 PM | Report abuse

Chris, Thanks for the great "lines." When does the 2010 campaign begin?

Posted by: -pamela | October 31, 2008 8:43 PM | Report abuse


For months I have been writing on this blog in support of Barak Obama. I have tried to push back on the lies and offer some arguments of why Mr. Obama is the right man and John Mccain is not. I don't really have any words left but I want to leave you with this.

BEFORE YOU VOTE VISIT THIS WEBSITE

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/

BEFORE YOU VOTE YOU MUST READ THIS INFORMATION.

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/cin_declassified_landing.htm

BEFOTE YOU VOTE YOU MUST WATCH THIS DOCUMENTARY

http://www.mccainbetrayspows.com/

John Mccain is "Not" the man some of you may think he is. John Mccain is damaged goods. Perhaps due to an inherent personality flaw, or from his war experience John Mccain lacks any empathy for another human being. It has been shown many times in how he has treated his wives and others. He cares about no one but himself. He will lie cheat, steal and exploit anyone for his own selfish needs what ever they are at the time. He is not trustworthy nor an honorable man in any way. I don't really know what else to say. The last straw for me was when he added to his spiel a story about sitting on a flight deck of a carrier with a mission and a target during the Cuba missile crises. More lies by this self aggrandizing phony hero.

This is my closing argument I guess. Please do your own research if need be, it is not too late and protect our country from who would be a very sick and dangerous leader.

I am a veteran, I hold a
Bronze star
Distinguished Service Cross
Soldiers medal
2 Purple Hearts

As a helicopter crewman my job was to retrieve wounded soldiers from the battle field often under fire. I met and knew so many "REAL" heros, I have a very hard time watching and listening to John Mccain as he spews his lies and venom. John Mccain is a piece of filth and I lack the vocabulary to even put into words what a phony he really is. On November 4 you have a choice.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 31, 2008 8:43 PM | Report abuse

Hey Silly Chris so how much of his phony
"Spread the Wealth" Messiah Barack Obama
been paying you and all the other WAPO
Obama Shill to write your Bias,"Official
Barack Hussein Obama Propaganda Sheet" every day?.. Please Voters just remember a
Vote for Messiah Barack "Spread the Wealth"
Hussein Obama is a Vote to let Obama "Spread All Your Own Wealth To His
ACORN Pals,Welfare Frauds,Drug Addicts,Drug
Dealers,Alcoholics,and other Losers! So
Please Protect Your Own Personal Wealth
By Voting for John McCain and Sareh Palin!
NO WAY OBAMA & BIDEN 2008!

Posted by: Darlene5289 | October 31, 2008 8:15 PM | Report abuse

It seems the irrational and emotional leaps of logic by the Republicans this year will not carry the day ...............


http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/31/tragic-leaps-of-emotional-logic/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 31, 2008 6:06 PM | Report abuse

I believe there will be a reverse "Bradley effect" that many white voters won't tell people they are voting for Obama and once they get into the voting booth they will vote for Obama.

Posted by: info4 | October 31, 2008 4:58 PM | Report abuse

Hey KIDS need a Job? don't vote McSame

vote early

Obama Biden 08

Posted by: capinfusion | October 31, 2008 4:57 PM | Report abuse

HAHAHA!!!


I hear that the GOPer party leaders are meeting next week to figure out how to create a resurge.
.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/29/uselections2008-republicans
.


Seems like, every forty years, the GOP is found out to be the bunch of immoral corporate shills that they are - and they take a beating in the voting booth. Then, they re-emerge by finding new ways to suck in the dumb voters (pro-guns, anti-abortion, evangelicals, tax cuts for the rich etc...), and they run with it - until they are found out again.


It will be interesting to see how they will "fix" their party this time.
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUdZnxtKR2A
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 31, 2008 4:56 PM | Report abuse

I agree there should be more handicapped in Congress.
And the DC pepole should be represented!!

Posted by: cgillard | October 31, 2008 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Chris, how does the WA-08 race drop 13 positions from your last ranking when since that time 3 of 4 polls have shown Burner ahead, and the other in a tie. SurveyUSA has this with Burner ahead. Seems that the race should have gone up in the rankings, not down.

Posted by: DanKirkd | October 31, 2008 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Chris, how does the WA-08 race drop 13 positions from your last ranking when since that time 3 of 4 polls have shown Burner ahead, and the other in a tie. SurveyUSA has this with Burner ahead. Seems that the race should have gone up in the rankings, not down.

Posted by: DanKirkd | October 31, 2008 4:49 PM | Report abuse

"Does anyone know how to access a saved map that was submitted to the contest predicting the outcome of the electoral college."

On the contest front page there should be a section on the lower right that has a place to either enter your picks, or access saved maps. Click on the saved maps 'tab' to see yours.

I think there's also a place to search by map name, if you know what it is.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 31, 2008 4:42 PM | Report abuse

bobby w-c I caught your reply on the previous thread and responded to you. Suffice to say here, the Valley and the Border are a terrible sad situation, worse than I imagined.

Austin is voting so heavily, it will top 50% of reg. voters on early voting alone, and I am guessing will hit 85%+ by Tuesday night. This, in my view, gives Doherty a slightly better than even chance against the incumbent McCaul[R]. TX CD 10 is actually up for grabs. On the other hand, I see the heavy voting in Ft. Bend as bad for Lampson, although there is heavy voting in Galveston, surprisingly, as well.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 31, 2008 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Chris,

You. Are. The. Man!

Thanks for both Lines today. It will be a shock when this is all over in less than a week.

Lots of races on The Line are in the Eastern or Central time zone. We should get a good idea pretty early in the evening how many seats the Ds will pick up.

Posted by: mnteng | October 31, 2008 4:39 PM | Report abuse

Lots of long faces on November 5, 2008 when John McCain wins this election. The California Bradley effect will put him in the winners seat.

Posted by: Atico | October 31, 2008 4:37 PM | Report abuse

Lots of long faces on November 5, 2008 when John McCain wins this election. The California Bradley effect will put him in the winners seat.

Posted by: Atico | October 31, 2008 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Anyone find it disturbing that the only two house members who missed more votes this term than McCain both died while in office?

How exactly are you doing your job as a senator if you missed more than 60% of the votes?

Why should we vote for McCain if he can’t even be bothered to represent the people who voted for him in AZ?

Posted by: Southeasterner | October 31, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

Anyone find it disturbing that the only two house members who missed more votes this term than McCain both died while in office?

How exactly are you doing your job as a senator if you missed more than 60% of the votes?

Why should we vote for McCain if he can’t even be bothered to represent the people who voted for him in AZ?

Posted by: Southeasterner | October 31, 2008 4:17 PM | Report abuse

If the IL6 goes blue, then the night will be a landslide for the Dems. Incumbent Republican Peter Roskam has a million dollar war chest against poorly funded (but well staffed) Jill Morgenthaler. But Roskam is scared enough to have launched a website this week "Obama Voters for Roskam." The Audacity of it all! (obamavotersforroskam.com) Jill is a decorated vet, a business woman and a Mom. Roskam has voted against the bailout, twice, against the GI Bill, is extreme anti-abortion and votes with Bush all the time. There has been NO polling, at least publicly, so no one knows how close it will be. But if it is a Morgenthaler win, it will be a national wave of blue.

OH, and note to Billstopay, small businesses don't pay income taxes. Just like large corps sometimes don't. The system is set up in such a way that if you are paying income taxes in a small business, you have a lousy accountant (or none at all) or are making a fabulous amount of money. MIne doesn't pay any and I can't see how it ever will.

see more about Roskam at hadnuf.com

Posted by: bilco5 | October 31, 2008 4:14 PM | Report abuse

Here is a question: Did Karl Rove push Palin on McCain to insure he looses? Here is the theory - the economy is a mess. Obama will be a one termer. This will allow Rove to argue - see the Democrats have failed - now give the Republicans complete control in 2010 and 2012.

Just a thought.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com
www.brownsvillevoice.blogspot.com

Posted by: bobbywc | October 31, 2008 4:04 PM | Report abuse

Well Done, Chris- A heck of a lot of work. much appreciated!

Posted by: sfcpoll | October 31, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

9 (D) - 41 (R)

2006 should have been ample warning for the GOP to try and turn things around. Guess they weren't paying attention. Hopefully this Democratic tide coming their way will ensure that cooler and more moderate voices take over once again.

Posted by: CohtR | October 31, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

QUESTION ON PRESIDENTIAL PICK CONTEST:

Does anyone know how to access a saved map that was submitted to the contest predicting the outcome of the electoral college. Thanks!

Posted by: gckarcher | October 31, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Just sent in another donation.

Fight til the last second.


Posted by: wpost4112 | October 31, 2008 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Just sent in another donation.

Fight til the last second.


Posted by: wpost4112 | October 31, 2008 3:57 PM | Report abuse

25-30 seats is the most probable outcome? If we win less than 30 seats it will be a surprising disappointment. But, we're not going to. We're going to win at least 35 seats, and probably more than 40. On election day would anyone be surprised to see us hit 50? Everyone's just going to have to wait and see I guess.

Posted by: jdunph1 | October 31, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

What do you think about a national sales tax instead of an income tax. Problem is that would impact the middle class who spend most of their salary more than the Rich rich?

Well Obama's business tax plan will result in higher costs for businesses whchi will be passed on too consumers....just like a sales tax.

Thus the Obama tax plan hits the middle class hardest:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqbMBfoA4Lc

Posted by: billstopay | October 31, 2008 3:40 PM | Report abuse

Obama Supporters are Using Huckabee in new online ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YADwYU-phpI

Criminal charges may be brought up on Palin for ethics issues? http://www.hotpres.com

Posted by: pastor123 | October 31, 2008 3:39 PM | Report abuse

What do you think about a national sales tax instead of an income tax. Problem is that would impact the middle class who spend most of their salary more than the Rich rich?

Well Obama's business tax plan will result in higher costs for businesses whchi will be passed on too consumers....just like a sales tax.

Thus the Obama tax plan hits the middle class hardest:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqbMBfoA4Lc

Posted by: billstopay | October 31, 2008 3:38 PM | Report abuse

I probably just don't understand how doomed the incumbent parties are in the top 14 entries, but I have to be honest, I expected Ohio's District 15 to be higher on the list. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy has the same problems connecting with voters as she did during her 2006 challenge of Deborah Pryce, but Republican Steve Stivers seems to be having a lot of trouble getting the kind of support he, as a fairly popular Republican in an area that's loath to change its political leanings, expected. Kilroy lost a squeaker to Pryce in 2006, and this year, the Republican also has to contend with a high-profile independent candidate, Don Eckhart, who has claimed he's running as the "real" pro-life candidate. He's not going to win -- or even come close to it --but he's definitely going to peel off some Stivers votes and I'll be surprised if that doesn't sink Stivers entirely.

Posted by: GJonahJameson | October 31, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Looks like the Democrats are going to have a very good night.

Posted by: SeanC1 | October 31, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Obama Supporters are Using Huckabee in new online ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YADwYU-phpI

Criminal charges may be brought up on Palin for ethics issues? http://www.hotpres.com

Posted by: pastor123 | October 31, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Another defection of the smart Republicans:

Interviewed on MSNBC today, former Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein criticized Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for choosing Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate:

I think it has very much undermined the whole question of John McCain’s judgment. You know what most Americans I think realized is that you don’t offer a job, let alone the vice presidency, to a person after one job interview. Even at McDonald’s, you’re interviewed three times before you get a job.

On whether Palin is ready to be president “in an emergency on day one,” Duberstein noted, “People have resoundedly said ‘don’t think so.’”

Lawrence Eagleburger, secretary of state under President George H. W. Bush, said yesterday that Palin is not qualified.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 31, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Another defection of the smart Republicans:

Interviewed on MSNBC today, former Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein criticized Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for choosing Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate:

I think it has very much undermined the whole question of John McCain’s judgment. You know what most Americans I think realized is that you don’t offer a job, let alone the vice presidency, to a person after one job interview. Even at McDonald’s, you’re interviewed three times before you get a job.

On whether Palin is ready to be president “in an emergency on day one,” Duberstein noted, “People have resoundedly said ‘don’t think so.’”

Lawrence Eagleburger, secretary of state under President George H. W. Bush, said yesterday that Palin is not qualified.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 31, 2008 3:35 PM | Report abuse

I dont see Don young of AK to be in quite the jepordy as Chris does...but then he is the pro. I would move him up about 20 spots. If Don goes down Obama wins AK! Anyone taking bets?

Posted by: WOW9 | October 31, 2008 3:28 PM | Report abuse

Seriously, why hasn't this guy been banned yet?

Posted by: Blarg

--------------------

I think it's one of Chris's cousins. It's a Southern thing.

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 31, 2008 3:23 PM | Report abuse

Why is Texas not in play even at the House level? Answer Lower Rio Grande Valley Democrats will no longer vote Democrat. Obama needs to agree to clean up the corruption if he wants to put Texas into play in 2012.

To: Mark in Austin:

Again someday the press will come to South Texas and tell the story.

Brownsville is 95% Latino and they voted for Bush twice.

We have no reason to vote, which is why our turnout is low. Everyone knows the Democratic Parties in the various counties of South Texas celebrate their corruption as a birth right.

We have just given-up - Obama can put Texas back in Democratic territory if he would just appoint a US Attorney for Southern Texas who will clean out the Democratic Party of South Texas. The day this happens Texas again will be a state controlled by the Democrats. If not we in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, LRGV will stay home and Texas will remain Republican.

Two examples which can be verified through the Brownsville Herald on line.

A man on the most wanted list by the FBI for murder is there because our DA allowed him to walk out of court without a bond to get his personal affairs in order. His name is Livingston. The bond money was released to the DA's former law partner (Eddie Lucio) as compensation to the victim's children. 5 minutes work earned him $200,000.00 - The judge who granted the motion to allow the convicted murder to walk without objection from the DA was Judge Limas.

Several weeks ago the same DA and same Judge Limas allowed the son of the District Clerk to walk out of court after admitting to stealing $83,000.00 from a nursing home.

The DA blocked the Herald from obtaining the full police report on the criminal complaint, until after the man was put before Judge Limas without any notice to the people, the victims, the press, and allowed to plead no contest with an agreement Judge Limas would slap him on the hand and give him 5 years probation with dismissal of all charges at any time Judge Limas decides to release him from probation. (There was not so much as notice the man was being investigated, or that he was ever indicted. He waived indictment.)

Oh, who chooses the judges in felony cases, the mother of the man who stole the $83,000.00 from the nursing home.

This is why the LRGV will not vote - this corrutpion is endless - it will never end because the Democrats of the LRGV are big time contributors to the DNC. The DNC sees the Latino community of the LRGV as a source of money. We have no rights. We are mere slaves to the Democratic Party Plantation Mentality towards Latinos.

The US Attorney who now resigned effective the 8th of November refuses to even investigate because the corruption goes to Bush cronies.

Mark in Austin and to anyone else who is reading this, would you vote if this is how politics were in your part of the country?

No

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com
www.brownsvillevoice.blogspot.com

Posted by: bobbywc | October 31, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Seriously, why hasn't this guy been banned yet?

Posted by: Blarg | October 31, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

.


.


Looks like Nancy Rules !!!!

.


.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 31, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

Why is Texas not in play even at the House level? Answer Lower Rio Grande Valley Democrats will no longer vote Democrat. Obama needs to agree to clean up the corruption if he wants to put Texas into play in 2012.

To: Mark in Austin:

Again someday the press will come to South Texas and tell the story.

Brownsville is 95% Latino and they voted for Bush twice.

We have no reason to vote, which is why our turnout is low. Everyone knows the Democratic Parties in the various counties of South Texas celebrate their corruption as a birth right.

We have just given-up - Obama can put Texas back in Democratic territory if he would just appoint a US Attorney for Southern Texas who will clean out the Democratic Party of South Texas. The day this happens Texas again will be a state controlled by the Democrats. If not we in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, LRGV will stay home and Texas will remain Republican.

Two examples which can be verified through the Brownsville Herald on line.

A man on the most wanted list by the FBI for murder is there because our DA allowed him to walk out of court without a bond to get his personal affairs in order. His name is Livingston. The bond money was released to the DA's former law partner (Eddie Lucio) as compensation to the victim's children. 5 minutes work earned him $200,000.00 - The judge who granted the motion to allow the convicted murder to walk without objection from the DA was Judge Limas.

Several weeks ago the same DA and same Judge Limas allowed the son of the District Clerk to walk out of court after admitting to stealing $83,000.00 from a nursing home.

The DA blocked the Herald from obtaining the full police report on the criminal complaint, until after the man was put before Judge Limas without any notice to the people, the victims, the press, and allowed to plead no contest with an agreement Judge Limas would slap him on the hand and give him 5 years probation with dismissal of all charges at any time Judge Limas decides to release him from probation. (There was not so much as notice the man was being investigated, or that he was ever indicted. He waived indictment.)

Oh, who chooses the judges in felony cases, the mother of the man who stole the $83,000.00 from the nursing home.

This is why the LRGV will not vote - this corrutpion is endless - it will never end because the Democrats of the LRGV are big time contributors to the DNC. The DNC sees the Latino community of the LRGV as a source of money. We have no rights. We are mere slaves to the Democratic Party Plantation Mentality towards Latinos.

The US Attorney who now resigned effective the 8th of November refuses to even investigate because the corruption goes to Bush cronies.

Mark in Austin and to anyone else who is reading this, would you vote if this is how politics were in your part of the country?

No

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com
www.brownsvillevoice.blogspot.com

Posted by: bobbywc | October 31, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Wow. Chris, it must feel unbelievable to have that final Line out the door.
Thanks for the hard work and insight as this wildest election season EVER grinds to an end. I'll miss reading the Line every Friday.
all best, DB

Posted by: dbitt | October 31, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse


.

.

BRUTAL !!!

37th and O Street Has The Momentum

.


.

Voted One of the Top 5 Political Blogs for the Election of 2008


.


.


Bookmark It Now !!! 37th & O Street


.


.


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


.

.


.


.

Voted One of the Top 5 Political Blogs for the Election of 2008


.


.


Bookmark It Now !!! 37th & O Street


.


.


http://www.myspace.com/37thandostreet


.

.

Posted by: 37thandOSt | October 31, 2008 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Cantor must go!

Posted by: wpost4112 | October 31, 2008 2:51 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company