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House Democrats reserve $49 million in ad time

1. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved television time in 56 districts at a cost of $49 million, the first tangible sign of how the majority party views the playing field this fall.

Of the 56 districts in which the DCCC has reserved time, 50 are currently controlled by Democrats. The six Republican-held seat targeted are Delaware's at-large, Florida's 25th Hawaii's 1st, Illinois' 10th, Louisiana's 2nd and Pennsylvania's 15th. President Barack Obama carried all but the Florida seat, which he lost by a single percentage point, in 2008.

Nearly 20 percent of the districts where Democrats have reserved air time are located in Ohio (1st, 13th, 15th, 16th and 18th) and Pennsylvania (3rd, 7th, 10th, 11th and 15th).

As interesting as the districts that are included in the DCCC ad buy are, those that aren't are equally noteworthy. Among the seats left off the list are Tennessee's 6th district, Louisiana's 3rd and New York's 29th -- all of which are viewed as prime Republican takeover chances. Another race not on the DCCC list is Rep. Alan Grayson's 8th district although Grayson's massive fundraising and personal wealth make him something short of a good investment for the House campaign arm. (Make sure to check out the Fix's latest House Line for a look at the top 30 pickup chances for both parties in the fall.)

While the DCCC ad buy suggests the contours of the playing field this fall, it's important to remember that in the next 97 days money will be moved into and out of myriad seats as they become more and less competitive. (Reserving air time is not the same thing as buying and paying for that time; the committee can cancel ad buys up until almost the moment the commercials run.)

As of the end of last month, the DCCC had $34 million on hand while the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has yet to place any major part of its television buy for the fall, had $17 million.

House Democrats are hoping that while their ad buy makes clear they are playing defense this fall that their financial edge can insulate their members and limit party losses on Nov. 2.

2. Oklahoma will have the first female governor in state history in 2011 as Rep. Mary Fallin (R) and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) won their respective party primaries last night.

Fallin, who was the favorite heading into the primary, easily bested a four-way field that included state Sen. Randy Brogdon with 57 percent. Askins -- considered an underdog coming into election day -- narrowly defeated state Attorney General Drew Edmondson for the Democratic nod.

The general election is Fallin's to lose although a recent poll conducted for the Tulsa World showed both Democrats trailing by single digits.

In the race to succeed Fallin in the 5th district, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey and professor James Lankford are headed for an Aug. 24 runoff for the Republican nomination. Whichever candidate wins the runoff is favored to win the heavily-Republican district centered in Oklahoma City in the fall.

In Oklahoma's 2nd district, Democratic Rep. Dan Boren easily fended off a primary challenge from his ideological left -- crushing state Sen. Jim Wilson.

3. President Barack Obama will be hitting the road to support another 2010 candidate next month when he travels to Ohio to raise money for Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) re-election bid.

The August 18 trip, during which Obama will also make an address on the economy, marks Obama's ninth visit to the Buckeye State as president. Strickland is locked in a tight race with former Rep. John Kasich (R), and both national party committees are spending heavily on the race.

Obama has been hitting the trail for a slew of statewide candidates this cycle. This month alone, Obama held events for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Las Vegas and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan; he is also slated to hold a dinner fundraiser tonight at the home of Vogue editor Anna Wintour in New York City and last night collected cash for the Democratic National Committee in Washington, D.C..

August is shaping up to be President Obama's biggest month yet on the fundraising circuit with at least five events already on his schedule in addition to the Strickland event.

On August 2, Obama is scheduled to attend a DNC fundraiser in Atlanta. Two days later - on his 49th birthday -- he stars at another DNC fundraiser in Chicago, followed by a fundraiser for Democratic Senate nominee and Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias the next day. And on Aug. 9, the president raises money for the DNC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at events in Austin and Dallas.

While the president's low approval rating in certain states runs the risk of dragging down Democratic candidates, his busy schedule is a testament to his power as fundraiser-in-chief.

4. Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum has closed the gap to four points against wealthy former health care executive Rick Scott in the state's GOP governor primary, according to a new poll for a McCollum ally.

The poll was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, who is also McCollum's pollster, for the Florida Medical Association. It shows Scott leading McCollum 37 percent to 33 percent and was conducted three days after a McLaughlin poll for McCollum's campaign showed the gap at 37 percent to 31 percent.

Scott's unfavorable rating has risen from 32 percent to 37 percent over that span, as the ad wars have heated up. Pollster John McLaughlin also points out that Scott's favorability among undecided primary voters is 16 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. If accurate, that suggests McCollum could make up a lot of ground with those voters.

Of course, the fact that McCollum supporters are releasing polls to reassert the competitive nature of the race speaks volumes about how much ground Scott has gained thanks to a saturation television ad buy fueled by better than $20 million in personal spending.

State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink is the near-certain Democratic nominee. Bud Chiles, the son of former Gov. Lawton Chiles (D), is running as an independent.

5. New Mexico Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich trails in a newly released independent poll -- although his campaign was quick to release its own poll the puts him in a much more comfortable position.

SurveyUSA first released an automated poll showing businessman Jon Barela (R) leading Heinrich 51 percent to 45 percent. Heinrich fought back with his own poll, which showed him ahead 53 percent to 41 percent.

In the SurveyUSA poll, Heinrich trails 55 percent to 41 among white voters. In his own poll, he leads that group 49 percent to 45 percent. Among independent voters, Barela leads 54 percent to 36 percent in the SurveyUSA poll. Heinrich's poll did not detail his standing among independents.

Heinrich's seat, which is based in Albuquerque, is not considered one of the GOP's top targets. Though Republicans initially touted Barela as a top candidate, Heinrich's district has trended towards Democrats in recent years and went for President Barack Obama with 60 percent in 2008.

In fact, the seat isn't even considered the most vulnerable in the state. That honorific goes to the southern New Mexico 2nd district, which is currently held by freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D). Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is running to re-claim his old seat.

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake

By Chris Cillizza  |  July 28, 2010; 7:52 AM ET
Categories:  Morning Fix  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Fallin, Askins to face off in battle to become Oklahoma's first woman governor
Next: Updated Governor and Senate ratings!

Comments

Is it a problem to vote against limiting credit card interest rates and then for it when it is sure to fail...??? Is this because the faithful are required to vote a certain way to show they are keeping the faith whether they want to or not??? Just wondering...

Posted by: Wildthing1 | July 28, 2010 8:12 PM | Report abuse

"While the president's low approval rating in certain states runs the risk of dragging down Democratic candidates, his busy schedule is a testament to his power as fundraiser-in-chief."

Why don't you poll 1500 Democrats who intend to vote and see just how much Obama's numbers are dragging him down. Note that ONLY hard core Republicans and T-Crazies actually think Obama is a drag on the ticket.

Leapin and 37 and zouk of the many personae, (or of the multiple personality disorder) will gleefully tell you that if Obama campaigns for a Democrat in their state, they will never vote for him, one of the very few truthful things they will ever say, but then they have already made it quite plain that they will never vote for a Democrat anyway.

How will Republican inconsistancy play in Peoria, when on the one hand R's won't extend unemployment benefits because it add to the debt, but currently are loudly demanding $300 billion a year in welfare for the rich, because it doesn't matter if they have to borrow the money, the rich deserve it.

The land of Ole Ev' goes blue and stays there for a generation.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 28, 2010 6:36 PM | Report abuse

Hey Democratic and Independent Fixistas:
After reading this article, you might want to do something to support Ds running for Congress at dccc.org and dscc.org.
Thanks for considering.
Posted by: paul65
-------------------------------------------
Do something to support D’s? What? Go on welfare and becoming part of the permanent D constituency?

Posted by: leapin | July 28, 2010 3:14 PM | Report abuse

What a waste of $34 million. At least the television stations will benefit. I hope they telecast Nancy when she is forced to give up the gavel to Boehner. School children should be forced to watch this historic day - just like they were when Obama came to town. Look how far he's fallen in less then 2 years.

Posted by: kenpasadena | July 28, 2010 2:31 PM | Report abuse

drindl | July 28, 2010 1:16 PM


___________________

New Election, New Message to Obama - please go on a permanent vacation.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 28, 2010 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Hey Democratic and Independent Fixistas:

After reading this article, you might want to do something to support Ds running for Congress at dccc.org and dscc.org.

Thanks for considering.

Posted by: paul65 | July 28, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

ordan has searched hard for a job and is now considering moving away from his family for a few months, if it means he can send home a paycheck. “I have voted Republican my entire life,” he says. “I don’t want to vote for Harry Reid. But I don’t want to be told I’m lazy, and I’m dumb, and I’m living high on the hog, collecting [unemployment insurance] because I want to.”

Posted by: drindl | July 28, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

Obama has a little trick - he loves to accuse his opponents of his own failings - thus Obama seized on the "ant" comment - accusing Boehner (in a deceptive way) of what Obama was ACTUALLY DOING.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis
------------------------------------------
Yes, He takes another tactic out of the Alinsky playbook. After all he was one of the foremost practictioners of Alinsky method during his time in Chicago.

Posted by: leapin | July 28, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Youcanpostthis writes:

"Remember it is Obama who wanted to do "big things"

Yep he did, but the Party of NO doesnt want to do anything that doesnt help their corporate buddies. So you cant do big things when one party wants to do NOTHING.

Posted by: rharring | July 28, 2010 1:34 PM | Report abuse

The country already sent a message to Obama and Democrats -- they elected them.

Posted by: drindl | July 28, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

This whole election will be about Obama - everyone in the country wants to send a message to Obama and the democrats.

Remember it is Obama who wanted to do "big things" - and Obama who regarded the economy in a far second place.


Obama has a little trick - he loves to accuse his opponents of his own failings - thus Obama seized on the "ant" comment - accusing Boehner (in a deceptive way) of what Obama was ACTUALLY DOING.


Good luck with this guy Obama, he has so many character flaws, at closer examination, one needs to start a list of the outrageous things he has done.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 28, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Hillary Clinton and Slick Willy are spending 3 Million on a grandios wedding for Chelsea.

Another great sign to the poor that their progressive liberal socialist schemes are just for the little guy. Right! Another waste of money which these progressive liberal filthy individuals are neglecting the poor, and spending as much money as possible on themselves. At least that is per there own criteria for everyone else.

Obama and all of the progressive liberal extremist socialsists are a national DISGRACE and need removed from every facet of our Government and so called News Media.

Posted by: ignoranceisbliss | July 28, 2010 11:42 AM | Report abuse

The Progressive sniveling liberal John Fn Kerry, like his fellow progressive liberal cohorts, are happy to talk about raising taxes across the board and discussing the Rich paying their "fair" share of taxes. And then promptly purchases a Yaught under one of his wifes Pittsburgh based companies / fronts, and births it in another state to save $500,000.00 in taxes, or if this where a G.O.P. Senator, the liberals would say that he was cheating the Pour in Massachusettes out of tax revenue. Also lost to the State of Massachusettes, are approx. anual fees of $50,000.00+.

Why doesn't John Fn Kerry want to pay his fair share, or his wifes for that matter?

This is another example of a Progressive Liberal filth disgracing the Citizenry of this Nation.

Obama is a liberal progressive socialist degenerate, and a National DISGRACE.

Posted by: ignoranceisbliss | July 28, 2010 11:22 AM | Report abuse

The Dems should be on the defensive.

Transparency? Hope and change we can believe in? Look at the way Obamacare was passed. Now Obama signs the financial reform law and simply omits to tell Americans that we no longer have the ability to file FOIA requests of the SEC. The biggest meltdown since the Great Depression and suddenly we have to trust GOVERNMENT to take care of these matters without allowing us to review records independently.

What a frightening blow to the public's right to know. The Dems should be scared come November.

Posted by: samwoods77 | July 28, 2010 11:19 AM | Report abuse

1. The $49 million in ad buys by the NCCC shows how they believe this election cycle is going to go, as everyone including Robert Gibbs believes, to the Republicans. Republicans will capture the House by winning just south of 40 seats and we will be looking at Speaker Boehner! This will be good for checks and balances in our government.

2. Mary Fallin has well positioned herself to become the 1st female Gov. of Oklahoma. Fallin has been a 2 time Lt. Gov. and now US Rep. for the 5th district. She's now the R nominee, but Askins can't be underestimated. It looked like Edmondson would beat her out, and she squeeked out a victory. Great victory for Askins. Fallin goes into the GE as the favorite. Another Gov. pickup for Republicans this year.

3. Obama is just hurting Strickland, Fisher & Carnahan by showing up to support them. Now, raising money for them is good as they will need it to run commercials distancing themselves from Obama & his agenda. On the other hand, if he can funnell Reid any money by appearing with him then that's a good thing. Reid can't run from their record together as Obama/Reid/Pelosi are tied at the hip. Giannoulias can benefit from Obama, as he's still popular in Illinois & he needs money as US Rep. Kirk is outraising him easily. Depends on where Obama goes and who he's beside of that makes him effective or not.

4. Who would have thought it would be the R Gov. primary & D senate primary that would be garnering all the attention. As Crist dropped the R nomination and ran as an independent, Scott joined the R Gov. primary and Greene joined the D Senate primary. I think Scott has certainly rocketed to the lead, now that McCollum is really fighting back I think he will demonize Scott and come back. This primary should be good and close until the end. I think McCollum will pull out the win, but not by a large margin.

Posted by: reason5 | July 28, 2010 11:03 AM | Report abuse

1. The $49 million in ad buys by the NCCC shows how they believe this election cycle is going to go, as everyone including Robert Gibbs believes, to the Republicans. Republicans will capture the House by winning just south of 40 seats and we will be looking at Speaker Boehner! This will be good for checks and balances in our government.

2. Mary Fallin has well positioned herself to become the 1st female Gov. of Oklahoma. Fallin has been a 2 time Lt. Gov. and now US Rep. for the 5th district. She's now the R nominee, but Askins can't be underestimated. It looked like Edmondson would beat her out, and she squeeked out a victory. Great victory for Askins. Fallin goes into the GE as the favorite. Another Gov. pickup for Republicans this year.

3. Obama is just hurting Strickland, Fisher & Carnahan by showing up to support them. Now, raising money for them is good as they will need it to run commercials distancing themselves from Obama & his agenda. On the other hand, if he can funnell Reid any money by appearing with him then that's a good thing. Reid can't run from their record together as Obama/Reid/Pelosi are tied at the hip. Giannoulias can benefit from Obama, as he's still popular in Illinois & he needs money as US Rep. Kirk is outraising him easily. Depends on where Obama goes and who he's beside of that makes him effective or not.

4. Who would have thought it would be the R Gov. primary & D senate primary that would be garnering all the attention. As Crist dropped the R nomination and ran as an independent, Scott joined the R Gov. primary and Greene joined the D Senate primary. I think Scott has certainly rocketed to the lead, now that McCollum is really fighting back I think he will demonize Scott and come back. This primary should be good and close until the end. I think McCollum will pull out the win, but not by a large margin.

Posted by: reason5 | July 28, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

"The republicans aren't choir boys."
Well back in the early sixties, I was a choir boy and so I can say I know Republicans don't look like choir boys, but they do like choir boys.

Posted by: shrink2 | July 28, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

So liberals have 34 million on hand and spend 49 million.

Typical liberals.

Posted by: Moonbat | July 28, 2010 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Nobody knows what the hell you are drooling about, zouk. How much does Mercatus pay you for spamming this blog all day?

Posted by: drindl | July 28, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/28/AR2010072802380.html?hpid=topnews

2010 likely to bring more negative campaign ads than ever, analyst says

Posted by: DDAWD | July 28, 2010 10:17 AM | Report abuse

Since Republicans are the minority, The Fix is an affirmative action program.

Posted by: shrink2 | July 28, 2010 10:13 AM | Report abuse

That money would best be spent paying down the national debt caused by these bozos. The republicans aren't choir boys, but the democrats make them look like it. Spend all the money you want, but my motto for 2010 is, anybody but a democrat.

Posted by: AnnieP1 | July 28, 2010 10:08 AM | Report abuse

Not sure why LA-3 is interesting as a non-buy. Obama got crushed there and with Melancon leaving that seat, it's next to impossible to hold on to it. And the Dem slate isn't all that compelling.

Posted by: DDAWD | July 28, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Drivl is up early spreading her message of hate. I guess the working on the writing was too exasperating.

Posted by: Moonbat | July 28, 2010 10:01 AM | Report abuse

$49M is a big commitment. How does it compare with 2006?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | July 28, 2010 9:49 AM | Report abuse

HILLARY IN 2012!!

Team Obama, and his acolytes Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, are in the process of driving the democratic party over the cliff to extinction.

Let us not forget Nancy's message to us regarding OBAMACARE: "We have to pass the bill to see what is in it!"

Don't know about you folks, but the THREE STOOGES have done enough damage.

Hillary seems to be one of the few adults in the cabinet.

Sadly, the party will get a serious wake up call this November!!

RUN HILLARY, RUN!!

Posted by: wheeljc | July 28, 2010 9:43 AM | Report abuse

"Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum has closed the gap to four points against wealthy former health care executive Rick Scott in the state's GOP governor primary, according to a new poll for a McCollum ally."

Since when is what essentially is a candidate's INTERNAL poll news. What are the results of the latest mainstream poll meeting commonly accepted journlaitic standards? That's the legit news.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | July 28, 2010 9:40 AM | Report abuse

We are hereby making a "citizen's edit" to this article (a corollary to a Gomer Pyle "citizen's arrest"). Clearly emergency intervention is required here.

@Post management: please insert d's following post directly above the five non-news stories in the article:
___________________

["Sink Sinks Competition in Latest Polls.]

"As the unexpectedly contested Florida Republican gubernatorial primary enters its final month, a winner has started to emerge after the millions in negative TV ads plastered across the state by state Attorney General Bill McCollum and wealthy businessman Rick Scott -- and that lucky candidate is Democratic candidate Alex Sink.

Last week, a fresh poll of the governor's race showed that despite being the third wheel in the second-most entertaining Florida political soap opera of the year, Sink has managed to pull ahead of both Republican candidates in general election matchups, thanks to tanking favorability numbers for both Scott and McCollum."

Attica, Attica, Attica...

Posted by: broadwayjoe | July 28, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

McCollum, Scott, Sink, Chain Gang Charlie, Lemieux, Super Marco Rubio.. Wasserman, the guy (US Rep) who hates the GOP (can't think of his name)... This is a very sad state of affairs (or just a sad state).

Posted by: newbeeboy | July 28, 2010 9:20 AM | Report abuse

"As the unexpectedly contested Florida Republican gubernatorial primary enters its final month, a winner has started to emerge after the millions in negative TV ads plastered across the state by state Attorney General Bill McCollum and wealthy businessman Rick Scott -- and that lucky candidate is Democratic candidate Alex Sink.

Last week, a fresh poll of the governor's race showed that despite being the third wheel in the second-most entertaining Florida political soap opera of the year, Sink has managed to pull ahead of both Republican candidates in general election matchups, thanks to tanking favorability numbers for both Scott and McCollum."

Posted by: drindl | July 28, 2010 9:06 AM | Report abuse

Trip, he always mentions the poll numbers if they favor Rs, which I assume you are. Every R I know who reads this sees it as 'fair and balanced.' And it is, in the same way Fox is.

Posted by: drindl | July 28, 2010 8:43 AM | Report abuse

Point four was about the GOP primary only with no mention of the general election. I don't see how Sink's numbers had anything to do with the narrative.

I find this blog to be even handed in its coverage. It is just that most of the news right now is with the GOP since the Democrats are facing a tough cycle.

Posted by: TripMcNeely | July 28, 2010 8:37 AM | Report abuse

Hilarious that you can't even bring yourself to mention that Alex Sink is ahead of both McCollumn and Scott.

Such flagrant rightwing hackery saturates every column of the Fix.

Posted by: drindl | July 28, 2010 8:23 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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