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House Republicans win in Hawaii but does it matter?

1. Rep.-elect Charles Djou's (R) victory in a Saturday special election in Hawaii's 1st district should have been a big deal.

After all, the seat Djou won not only gave President Barack Obama 70 percent of the vote but also is the congressional district that the nation's chief executive calls home. In 2008, former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D), who recently resigned his seat to focus full time on running for governor, won re-election to a tenth term with 77 percent. Djou is the first Republican to represent Hawaii in Congress since Pat Saiki in the late 1980s.

But, context matters in politics and there were any number of factors that contributed to the dulling of the national impact of the contest.

To wit:

* All of the candidates ran on a single ballot; the two Democratic candidates -- state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case -- received a combined 60 percent while Djou took 40 percent.

* The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee stopped spending in the district 10 days before the special election -- devaluing the win for House Republicans.

* The Hawaii special came four days after Republicans lost a special election in Pennsylvania's 12th -- a surprisingly large defeat that drove a narrative that the idea of a GOP wave this fall may be misguided.

* Hawaii's time zone -- six hours behind the east coast -- and the fact that the election was held on a Saturday ensured that it drew far less national news coverage than the Pennsylvania race earlier in the week.

Does all of that mean that the Hawaii win was meaningless for Republicans? No.

First and foremost, it reduced the Democratic majority to 39 seats -- not a significant change but not for nothing either.

And, House Republicans have now broken the six-race special election streak held over them by Democrats for the past two years -- a psychological barrier they needed to knock down heading into the fall.

It's not clear whether Djou has a real chance to win a full term in a one on one race this fall. Hanabusa would seem to be the favorite for the nomination given her more liberal issue positions and second place finish in the special. If she is the nominee, Republicans believe Djou can hold the seat.

2. The battle for support in the Senate race between Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) began in earnest over the weekend the Miami Democrat won the backing of the state AFL-CIO -- delivering a fiery half-hour speech in which he told delegates: "I'm asking you to fight, scratch, crawl, bite, do whatever you gotta do to help us win."

Crist made his own pitch to the union Friday, addressing the group for the first time in his career. "Come September and October, it's going to be very lonely for me in terms of support from a political party," Crist told the convention, acknowledging that the political powers-that-be are against him in his independent bid.
For Crist to win, he need considerable organization help as he will have no official turnout operation of his own because of his decision to run without party affiliation in the fall.

The Florida Democratic Party touted Meek's endorsement by the union, which has 500,000 members statewide, as "a huge blow to lifelong Republican Charlie Crist's opportunistic attempts to transform himself once again."

But Crist scored his own victory, winning -- together with Meek -- a co-endorsement from the Florida Education Association.

In its release announcing its decision, the 140,000-member union praised Crist for "bucking the leaders of his former party" with his April veto of a hotly contested teacher tenure bill. The unusual dual endorsement means that the state's local teachers' unions can make their own choice on whether to back Crist or Meek.

A new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll released Saturday showed Crist leading in a three-way Senate race, with 30 percent of registered voters backing him. Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) was close behind with 27 percent, and Meek came in third with 15 percent.

And in another sign that Crist will continue to make strong overtures to Democrats, his campaign announced late last week that it had hired Eric Johnson, a Democratic strategist and former chief of staff to Rep. Robert Wexler (D), as a South Florida adviser.

3. Former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon won the Connecticut GOP's Senate endorsement on Friday, but former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) is pressing forward with a primary challenge.

The upstart McMahon defeated Simmons in a close race, 737 votes to 632 votes. Simmons had previously said he would abide by the party's endorsement but he has reversed course and will instead run against McMahon in August. (Simmons is coming under some pressure to reconsider that decision from some of his supporters but has shown no signs of reversing course.)

McMahon won the endorsement despite Simmons's long-standing ties to the state party infrastructure dating back to his six years representing an eastern Connecticut House district.

McMahon's surprise convention win comes as Republicans have renewed their efforts to win the seat, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), in the wake of revelations that state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) exaggerated his Vietnam record.

With Blumenthal a strong favorite in that early going, some Republicans turned to McMahon as someone who can self-fund her campaign -- to the tune of $30-$50 million.

In the open seat governor's race, former Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy soundly defeated 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont on the Democratic side while former Ambassador Tom Foley beat Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele. The convention results are non-binding, however, and both sides will hold gubernatorial primaries on Aug. 10.

4. Less than a month after launching his Senate bid, former Wisconsin Commerce Secretary Dick Leinenkugel shocked state Republicans yesterday with his announcement that he was dropping out of the race and endorsing businessman Ron Johnson .

Leinenkugel, who made the announcement at the state Republican convention, reportedly told Johnson of his decision only moments before he took the stage. Johnson's forces said the endorsement wasn't terribly helpful as Leinenkugel was not popular with convention-goers.

As part of the family that founded the eponymous beer company, Leinenkugel jumped into the race following former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) announcement in mid-April that he would not run.

But Wisconsin Democrats had knocked Leinenkugel for his work in Gov. Jim Doyle's (D) administration, where he had served for 19 months before resigning in early April to pursue his bid.

With Leinenkugel out, Johnson, a wealthy Oshkosh businessman, emerges as the likely GOP frontrunner ahead of the September 14 primary.

Johnson entered the race one week ago, but has hired veterans such as GOP strategist Darrin Schmitz and former Wisconsin Republican Party political director Juston Johnson. He's also a founder of the Oshkosh Tea Party and spoke at the same Madison Tea Party event where Thompson announced he wouldn't pursue a bid.

Johnson came out on top at yesterday's state party convention -- taking 64 percent of the vote. Developer Terrence Wall (R), who's been largely self-funding his bid, received 18 percent, while businessman David Westlake (R) failed to make it past the first ballot. The party's endorsement has no bearing on September's ballot, but it does provide Johnson with organizational and fundraising heft.

Feingold, who won his 2004 re-elect bid by 11 points ended the first quarter of this year with over $4 million cash-on-hand and has already gone up with TV ads saying he's "tough on wasteful spending" and touting his opposition to TARP.

5. Virginia Republicans this weekend nominated state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith to take on longtime Rep. Rick Boucher in one of a handful of races where the national GOP strategists are targeting long-serving Democratic incumbents.

Griffith was nominated by acclamation at a district GOP convention on Saturday.

Boucher has served in Congress for nearly three decades and has seldom been tested, but his southwest Virginia district is among the most Republican-leaning currently held by a Democrat. (Sen. John McCain of Arizona won it by 19 points in 2008.)

As Republicans seek to retake three Virginia seats -- the 2nd, 5th and 11th -- that they lost in recent years, Boucher's seat has emerged as a fourth potential target.

In the runup to the convention Saturday, Griffith was endorsed by state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli -- a boost given Cuccinelli's popularity among the conservative rank and file.

Griffith faces a steep financial disadvantage with Boucher in the general election, though. Griffith entered the race relatively late, and the incumbent began May with a $1.9 million to $110,000 edge in cash on hand.

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake

By Chris Cillizza  |  May 24, 2010; 6:00 AM ET
Categories:  Morning Fix  
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Comments

If I had to pay for this rag, I wouldn't know how duplicitous Cillizza is, because I surely would not pay money to read this left-wing drivel. His "analysis" from DNC HQ is really sad, almost childish, but that's insulting children. .............(1) What difference does the single ballot make, other than stop the possibility of a run-off ..........(2) Oh, yeah, the DNC stopped spending and that allowed Djou to win. Bull. The DNC stopped spending because it knew the Dems couldn't win. I consider that smart money managing. ....................(3) PA's 12th District has more than 65% Dem registration and the Repubs about 30%. The Dem candidate got 54% of the vote -- which means THE DEM LOST ABOUT 11% OF THE DEM REGISTRATION. .................(4) What difference does the time zone make when the Repub casts a vote in Congress? Idiocy. ............ Cillizza, I guess you believe that an idiotic rationalization for why the Repub win doesn't matter. And your "analysis" in CT is equally inane. Your thought that Simmons was going to stay in the race really hit the mark ........except Simmons withdrew this week. And Cillizza, Blumenthal didn't "exaggerate" -- BLUMENTHAL FLAT LIED MORE THAN ONCE IN MORE THAN ONE ARENA. Of course, left-wing hacks writing for fading left-wing rags don't understand truth.

Posted by: RonKH | May 26, 2010 2:50 AM | Report abuse

Heading should be changed to "IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER" with a pic of Bill Murray from that awful "Meatballs" clip.

Come ON, Chris, only the most addled "you just wait till November libs" delusion case sees this as anything more than symbolic. Yeah it breaks a long streak but doesn't break it in any meaningful way. If Case and Hanabusa had flipped a coin and one of them dropped out then Djou would have lost by 20 points, and no break in the streak.

Come on. Isn't there enough real news to try to spin this as anything more than a temp? Djou is out in November and you know that.

Posted by: Noacoler | May 24, 2010 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Talk about a non story Chris, one that you dispute yourself. Djou only won because he ran against two dems, come November he's history.

Posted by: PatrickNYC1 | May 24, 2010 3:51 PM | Report abuse

ENDLESS GULF OIL SPILL: PURPOSEFUL 'END OF DAYS' POWER PLAY?

See Vic Livingston's "Facebook" page ("Notes" tab) for the commentary that a rogue government "fusion center" surveillance and censorship regime apparently would not allow to be posted to WaPo's "The Fix" political blog this morning.

Posted by: scrivener50 | May 24, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse


12Bar

What is there to dispute at a trial?


The liability is well established.


The fishermen should not have to endure additional hardship waiting years for their just compensation - they should be made whole IMMEDIATELY.


Why - what purpose can a DELAY serve?

From your silence, I guess you want all the fishermen to wait 20 years for compensation.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 2:48 PM | Report abuse

It's always fun (while a bit nauseating at the same time) to read fantasies such as those put forth by Reason5. I won't go into everything he or she said, but I found his-her speculations about the U. S. Senate races to be completely absurd. I will grant the Republicans have a lock on Florida (it will be Crist, but he will caucus with the Republicans), North Dakota and Delaware. But almost every other race in the country will be competitive, and both sides will win a few and lose a few. There are Democratic pickup opportunities in Missouri and Ohio. I won't go state by state of the supposedly vulnerable Democratic-held seats, but I will mention one: it's pure silliness to think any Republican will win a Senate seat in California in this generation after the way that party has behaved on the immigrant issue. Fiorina has no qualifications to be a Senator, and Boxer is a ferocious campaigner with tons of money. it won't even be close.

Dream on, Repugs. I look forward to your pouty little faces on election night.

Posted by: jothomp | May 24, 2010 2:35 PM | Report abuse

simonsays, but not very well.

Decoding:

flook=fluke
raxists=racists

Meaning: ?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

No way in hell does McMahon win CT. Yea Blumenthal started to look ahead and left his service as open ended and embellished. That was real real stupid. However he has a good track record and is likely to pull from moderate GOPers. I'm not sure how many fire brand religious nuts we have up here......but I can image some nasty attack ads featuring Brutus the Barber Beefcake or the "body" Ventura and having her lose the fundie vote.

Keep running Simmons. Make sure she doesn't win.

Posted by: theobserver4 | May 24, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

If the democrats had held the seat, it would be a big deal! But the republican winning it in bluest Hawaii is just
a flook. it means nothing. the Republicans
are serial raxists and all rich and unworthy!

Posted by: simonsays1 | May 24, 2010 2:10 PM | Report abuse

12Bar

What is there to dispute at a trial?


The liability is well established.


The fishermen should not have to endure additional hardship waiting years for their just compensation - they should be made whole IMMEDIATELY.

Why - what purpose can a DELAY serve?


From your silence, I guess you want all the fishermen to wait 20 years for compensation.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

wow-- zouk's overamped today -- is he been into 37's crystal?

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

So now Obama WAS born in Hawaii. Guess it took a GOP win to figure it out.

Posted by: jckdoors | May 24, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

Yea, there should be an agreement reached to place BP in a trust - and all its profits should go for IMMEDIATE COMPENSATION TO THE FISHERMEN AND THE VICTIMS.


The Fisherman should be getting checks right away.

AND YES - cut the lawyers out of the process - move it along - the agreement can go before a Judge for approval.

Bumblingberry and 12 Bar - THE LIABILITY IS WELL ESTABLISHED -


It is that simple - there is a liability and the victims should not have to wait YEARS for COMPENSATION.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 1:40 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


I suppose you support letting BP drag this court case out for 20 years, as Exxon has done in the Exxon Valdez case - AND YOU SUPPORT PAYING THE FISHERMAN 20 YEARS FROM NOW.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Instead of countering violent terrorists, he's permitted them to commit attacks against U.S. citizens on American soil six times since his inauguration. The fact that panty-boy and the Times' Square bomber got nothing more than smoke from their ignitions doesn't mean that both attacks were not a severe danger to thousands of American lives.

Instead of stopping the spread of nuclear weapons he's made every overture to Iran that he will do nothing to prevent them from gaining them. He's even gone so far as attempting to muzzle other nations who will suffer an even greater direct threat from a nuclear Iran.

Instead of combating the false claims of the global warming propagandists who got caught by their own admissions in the lies, the cover ups, and the inaccuracies they had promoted, Obama went before the American people and mocked any who did not hold the lies to be truth.

Instead of sustaining global growth, his policies of propping up companies that should've been allowed to correct on their own or fizzle out all together have actually worsened the outlook for the average American, the American markets, and by extension the global economy
And instead of helping other nations become self sufficient, and responsible for their own laws, welfare, and futures, he's taken punitive action against allies like Israel and Honduras, and played footsies with nations that we have in recent years considered dangerous. These include Syria, Yemen, Iran, and North Korea

Kevin McCullough

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 1:34 PM | Report abuse

bumblingberry


I did not say that - I said the company should be seized - and the assets placed in a trust -


First - there is no question of responsibility - so a Court could issue a summary judgement in a day.

Most importantly - the affected people - the fishermen HAVE NO INCOME NOW - THEY ARE BEING HARMED RIGHT NOW.

The people who own BP shares for the most part will not bat an eyelash.

The trust can run the company and take the profits to IMMEDIATELY COMPENSATE THE VICTIMS FOR LOST INCOME.

There is a concept in law called EQUITY.


Yea, this should be done - a trust should be created - and the arrangement should go before a judge for approval - but the British Government and BP itself should agree to it


THERE IS IMMEDIATE HARM RIGHT NOW - AND THERE SHOULD BE IMMEDIATE REMEDY.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

now 37th & O proposes that there should be no trial, no jury, no hearings, no nothing; just seize a company's assets & distribute them to one affected party, too bad for the rest of 'em.

Wow.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 24, 2010 1:09 PM
--------------------------------------
Here's how to decode this bizarre suggestion:

1. 37th believes that the White House has paid [!] operatives on this blog.

2. The paid [!] operatives report subversive discussion to the President.

3. The President being the stoooooooooooopid half white, allegedly American citizen, that he is, will say "oh, that's a good idea...let's seize BP. Wonder why I didn't think of that...it's really 37th who is the REAL thinker here".

4. 37th, being the brilliant strategist that he is, will then post 1 million times on this blog, that

"OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-BAAAAAAAAAAAAA-MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA is unamerican because he seized BP."

5. And everyone's happy. Stooooooopid Obama because he's found a great strategist. 37th because he FINALLY made a difference in the world. And the rest of us, because God knows, we just loooooooooooove to read 37th posts.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Chicago is a city in crisis. Crime rates have surged despite the many, Obama-led, community-building efforts. The number of Americans murdered in Chicago this year is about the same number of troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past year. Two State Senators have argued that Chicago’s crime problem is too big for locals to solve and have called for deployment of the National Guard.

Nor is crime the only problem in the windy city. Unemployment is at11.2%, 1.3 points above the national average. Worse yet, minorities are particularly hit by a failing Chicago economy that continues to shed jobs as the unemployment rates among minorities top 20%.

Alas, the index of misery in Chicago earned the city the distinction as the third most miserable city in America, as high taxes cripple job growth, innovation, and entrepreneurialism.

None of Mr. Obama’s efforts as a community organizer, state legislator or U.S. Senator did anything to reduce Chicago’s misery index. It’s possible that the opposite may be true. Remember: as a U.S. Senator, Mr. Obama averaged nearly $286.9 million per year in earmark requests, which he justified as ways to promote job growth, reduce crime, and improve schools. Yet, Chicago’s misery worsened.

Is it possible that Mr. Obama made Chicago’s problems worse by championing a philosophy of greater federal support, avoidance of self-sufficiency and personal responsibility? Was the nearly $1 billion of Obama earmarks spent, not on investments that might have helped spark economic activity, but instead directed to dubious causes aimed at rewarding key supporters such as the Unions? Did Obama help choke off economic vitality and entrepreneurialism by acquiescing to high taxes and growing regulatory burdens?

Here is the scary part: now they are in Washington, working hard to duplicate on a national scale the failures they achieved in Chicago.

If Team Obama wanted to find out why their earlier programs failed and led to an exodus of jobs, they could talk to companies that have relocated to more business friendly states such as Texas. In Texas, Team Obama would find a lower tax rate, a healthy climate for entrepreneurial growth, and pro-growth policies that encourage innovation and new investment.

Team Obama might even want to take a trip and talk to the guy that first put Texas on the path of long-term growth, fiscal solvency, and enhanced competitiveness. The roads to Crawford are well marked, so he should not be hard to find.
Lurita Alexis Doan

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

no trial, no jury, no hearings, no nothing; just seize a company's assets & distribute them to one affected party, too bad for the rest of 'em.

Wow.


Posted by: bsimon1


this is the essence of the financial power grab the socialists are getting ready to sign.

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

Just another corrupt lying liberal (but I repeat myself):

"We call this a bribe." Congressman Darryl Issa has had enough. In a stunning, newly released YouTube video, the California Republican Congressman and member of the House Judiciary Committee has put together a Jobsgate montage of White House press secretary Robert Gibbs and Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak in a veritable orgy of denial, evasion, and just plainly obvious dishonesty that could do serious damage not just to the White House but the U.S. Senate candidacy of Sestak.

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 1:10 PM | Report abuse

"I think that all the assets of BP should be seized to compensate the fishermen."


Wow. Talk about your excessively powerful federal government! I haven't even heard liberals make this argument & now 37th & O proposes that there should be no trial, no jury, no hearings, no nothing; just seize a company's assets & distribute them to one affected party, too bad for the rest of 'em.

Wow.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 24, 2010 1:09 PM | Report abuse

Hawaii? isn't that some "exotic" place, not REAL America?

Posted by: JRM2 | May 24, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Roger Simon sees evidence that the Global Warming Scam may have run its course and the scammers are cashing out in advance of the crash. Al Gore's buddy Richard Sandor --- and many other investors --- are selling out their shares of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), the exchange set up as the mechanism for exchanging carbon credits under the Global Warmist Cap and Trade scheme. Selling out now can be seen as an indication that they don't expect this carbon scam to pay off in the future, and they're getting out now

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 1:06 PM | Report abuse

The government should SEIZE ALL OF BP'S ASSETS and pay the fisherman - then BP can sue to get something back if anything is left at the end
-------------------------------------
You are sooooooo ignorable.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 12:53 PM | Report abuse

12BarBlues


Obviously I am not happy about it - I think that all the assets of BP should be seized to compensate the fishermen.

There should be no means for BP to drag out a court case.


Im not sure if the Exxon Valdez suits are done now or not, but they were still going a few years ago - 20 years after the incident.

The government should SEIZE ALL OF BP'S ASSETS and pay the fisherman - then BP can sue to get something back if anything is left at the end - AND THEY CAN GET PAID 20 YEARS FROM NOW.

The new government in London should support this - Just to mention - the UK shareholders own about 40% of BP, and US shareholders own about 40% - EU shareholders outside of the UK own about 13% and the rest of the world owns about 7%.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 12:44 PM | Report abuse

37th wrote: It is more like 2,940,000 gallons per day.

Yea.
---------------------------------
You are happy about that?

From your inability to answer this very simple question, I guess that you made a little Freudian slip, didn't you. You are delighted that the oil gusher is spewing maybe 3 million gallons a day, that the Gulf coast is contaminated, that the fisheries are destroyed and that there will be decades of destruction. You are delighted that millions of people are hurting economically, in an area that was already hurting. You are delighted that even more people will lose their homes and businesses.

And why are you delighted?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 12:42 PM | Report abuse

@drindl
If you are going to post items 'borrowed' from other websites you should at least acknowledge it. For instance this post:Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:59 AM which was taken from Paul Krugmans column in todays New York Times.

Posted by: stevel1 | May 24, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

bumblingberry


The Exxon Valdez was 10.8 million gallons


We are at 34 days now.

So it is entirely possible we are at 98.6 million gallons spilled already in the Gulf of Mexico.

Because of the temperature and the currents, half of that could have already evaporated as volatile compounds.


So we are sitting at about 50 million gallons still in the water - and much of it is suspended BELOW the surface of the water. The dispersant is grapping the heavier parts of the crude and holding it in globs - somehow the currents and the different temperatures a different depths in the Gulf are keeping much of this under water -

Without the dispersant, the 50 million gallons would all be floating on the surface.


I'm not sure if this is a better situation - having it all in globs under the surface - or whether it would have been better to have it on the surface where it could be burned off.

It is UNCLEAR IF BP KNEW that the dispersant would work this way - keeping much of the globs below the surface.

Certainly, for the time being the birds are affected less relatively - and a glob would be easier to shovel off a beach.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 12:36 PM | Report abuse

1. Djou's victory is big for Republicans in 3 ways. 1.) Republicans go into November with a victory in the most recent congressional race, US Senate race & 2 Governor's races. Big victories and huge momentum boosts! 2.) Djou's victory gives Republicans a chance to hold & hold on to come November that noone would ever think possible as short as 1 month ago. 3.) The Djou victory is a huge boost to the candidacy for Governor of Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona. For these reasons, that victory was big.

2. This Florida Senate race is between Crist vs. Rubio, as Meek has no real shot to win now. Crist will pick up a large part of the Democratic vote, maybe 40%, around 60%-65% of the Independent vote and 25%-35% of the Republican vote. Rubio must minimize Crist's Republican vote and maximize his own Indepent vote to win. He also must hope Meek minimizes Crist's share of the Democratic vote to win. What a race this will be.

3. Conn. is now in play again. Republicans are likely to hold all current seats, although they are likely to have tough races in Florida & Ohio. They are favored to win both, and Dems. have no shot with Meek to win Florida as Crist is basically a moderate Republican. Republicans, with McMahon & her money, to win Conn., Delaware, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Dakota, Arkansas, Colorodo, Nevada and California. Washington & Wisconsin could still be in play with Rossi & a good Republican emerging in Wisconsin. It's Blumenthal vs. McMahon in Conn. now, as Simmons has no real shot at victory in the primary. It will be a great election cycle this year!

5. Virginia is getting more & more conservative now. With McDonnell as Governor & Cucinelli as Atty. General. These 2 are not shy to push a conservative agenda for the good of the state of Virginia, which will motivate Virginian's to vote Republican. This is a great movement in Va. that is happening.

Posted by: reason5 | May 24, 2010 12:33 PM | Report abuse

37th wrote: It is more like 2,940,000 gallons per day.

Yea.
---------------------------------
You are happy about that?

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Obama White House probe of Obama
White House finds no Obama White
House impropriety on Sestak

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 12:24 PM | Report abuse

President Obama used a teleprompter for his West Point commencement address, which means that he took the occasion seriously. What he said, however dull and clichéd, represents not just the sometimes-flighty emanations from his remarkable brain, but also United States policy at large.


Of course, there was plenty of pie-in-the-sky new ageism, as in the pursuit of "clean energy" and "research that unlocks wonders" to solve all our problems. Perhaps this rings true with some cadets or their parents. A shame Obama can't just wave his wand and make it happen -- though he often acts like he just might.

The speech also reeks of the president's insulated moral blindness and hypocrisy. Obama implicitly rejects America's special place among nations, but he is not above wrapping himself in the mantle of historic American moral leadership, at least as he would like it to be. Thus, we have succeeded not by "stepping out of the current of cooperation, but by steering those in the direction of liberty and justice." This is arguably true of our nation's history, but not of Obama's presidency. When has Obama steered a course in the direction of international liberty? Rather, he has coddled the cruelest and most autocratic regimes and turned a deaf ear to those within them fighting for liberty and justice, all the while pressuring, insulting, and betraying our democratic allies.

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

bumblingberry


It is not 210,000 gallons a day - that number has been disproven by the siphoning operation.

It is more like 2,940,000 gallons per day.

Yea.


.


Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

For once I agree with the liberals' analyses: the Hawaii election is meaningless, and the results in PA should dash any hopes the Republicans have of capturing senate or house. Oh, they will gain a few seats, but far from what they (and I) were hoping prior to these primaries.

Murtha's seat was there for the taking, but Republicans lost big. If they can't win there, how can they ever expect to capture the house? The Tea Party is strong and on the right track, but there just aren't enough of them. The number of people who received doles from government has increased to the point where they will NOT give up their doles and will continue voting democrat. It's much easier to buy a vote by giving a nonworker money, than telling him to earn his keep.

Posted by: rimantas1 | May 24, 2010 12:15 PM | Report abuse

Crist has little of what Lieberman had - the situation is completely different.


Anyway


This may help Meeks - and Crist MAY have a problem on his hands because if it appears that the race might be going toward Meeks, Crist is going to face considerable pressure to leave the race.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

According to best estimates, the collapsed Deepwater Horizon oil rig is pumping about 210,000 gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico every day. But don’t worry, President Barack Obama has appointed an “independent” commission to investigate the spill.

Our federal government will post an estimated $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year, and our debt is projected to equal 140 percent of gross domestic product within two decades. But don’t worry, President Obama has appointed a debt commission to solve the problem.

Our nation’s southern border has degenerated into a violent, lawless and lethal zone. But don’t worry, Congress wants to empower a new commission to control the problem.

And millions of Americans don’t know whether or not their health plan will be exempted from Obamacare. But don’t worry, faceless bureaucrats at the Department of Health and Human Services are already hard at work determining whether or not you will be allowed to keep your current health insurance.

Liberal leadership. worth a good laugh.

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

When did REASONABLE PEOPLE BEGIN TO TOLERATE DECEPTION???
--------------------------------
That is a good question. Amazingly enough, the Kentucky Libertarian Party has posted the following on its website:

"Let's start out again by reiterating that Rand Paul is NOT a Libertarian...I did not ask for this fight, but we must defend our party. We are not Rand Paul, and Rand Paul is not us. It does not serve us well to allow the GOP smear machine to associate the two."

http://www.lpky.org/node/162
----------------------------------------------

Talk about SOMETHING WRONG. So, Rand Paul is ALLEGEDLY a Libertarian.

Y'all better look into that.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 12:07 PM | Report abuse

same old story:

"So what President Obama and his party now face isn’t just, or even mainly, an opposition grounded in right-wing populism. For grass-roots anger is being channeled and exploited by corporate interests, which will be the big winners if the G.O.P. does well in November.

If this sounds familiar, it should: it’s the same formula the right has been using for a generation. Use identity politics to whip up the base; then, when the election is over, give priority to the concerns of your corporate donors. Run as the candidate of “real Americans,” not those soft-on-terror East coast liberals; then, once you’ve won, declare that you have a mandate to privatize Social Security. It comes as no surprise to learn that American Crossroads, a new organization whose goal is to deploy large amounts of corporate cash on behalf of Republican candidates, is the brainchild of none other than Karl Rove.

But won’t the grass-roots rebel at being used? Don’t count on it. Last week Rand Paul, the Tea Party darling who is now the Republican nominee for senator from Kentucky, declared that the president’s criticism of BP over the disastrous oil spill in the gulf is “un-American,” that “sometimes accidents happen.” The mood on the right may be populist, but it’s a kind of populism that’s remarkably sympathetic to big corporations. "

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:59 AM | Report abuse

@drindl,

No chicken suits allowed?!? You mean you can carry a gun to vote, but you can't wear a chicken suit? Maybe there are wiser heads in charge--anyone carrying a gun might say "thar's dinner" and then there'd be nothin' but feathers.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | May 24, 2010 11:58 AM | Report abuse

Most of the special election "victories" were DIRECTLY A RESULT OF APPOINTMENTS BY OBAMA.


So to begin with, the common element was a democrat coming from a democratic safe district.


So, to talk about a SERIES OF DEMOCRATIC VICTORIES is silly - deceptive and really stupid.

It means NOTHING -


I really like this column when something is brought up that means SOMETHING - but whenwe are talking about nothing, there is a problem.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 11:56 AM | Report abuse

What does this headline tell you?

Freshmen Run Away From Obama (CQPolitics.com)
CQPolitics.com - The House Democratic freshmen who rose to power riding candidate Barack Obama's coattails in 2008 are now eager to strut their independence heading into the midterms.

Posted by: bumblingberry | May 24, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse


The elections last week - all of them - mean little - because few of the races had characteristics which represent trends which will be nationwide this fall.


In fact, several of the races had specific qualities which will NOT be present this fall.


IN Kentucky, the Tea Party will be stronger within the electorate compared to other parts of the country.


In Penn, Specter switched parties - and his opponent was determined to beat him.


In the special election in PA, a democrat ran on a Republican platform - that is not going to happen this fall nationwide AND voters WILL see the election to tell the democrats how they feel about Obama.

In Hawaii, it was a three way race - funny how the democrats were attempting to say how much NY 23 meant over the winter - when basically the same thing just happened in Hawaii.

At the present time, Obama has a "Certificate of Live Birth" which is issued from the Hawaii district - HOWEVER THE HAWAII DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH ISSUES THE EXACT SAME CERTIFICATE TO BABIES BORN OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY -


THE CERTIFICATE PRODUCED BY OBAMA DOES NOT PROVE HE WAS BORN IN THE US.


When the democrats decide to be HONEST, and open up ALL THE FILES for everyone to see, then the issue will be resolved.

Not for nothing, Obama PROMISED TRANSPARENCY.

NO ONE WANTS TO ADDRESS THE CENTRAL ISSUE: THE CERTIFICATE ADVANCED IS THE SAME EXACT CERTIFICATE GIVEN BY THE STATE TO BABIES BORN OUTSIDE OF THE US.


Anyway - the lies and the deceptions continue.

When did REASONABLE PEOPLE BEGIN TO TOLERATE DECEPTION???


I think that is a great part of what is wrong with this country now -

balance sheets are allowed to lie -

Obama is allowed to keep the files secret


The mortgage portfolios on Wall Street do not have in them what they said was in them


AND YET RESPONSIBLE ADULTS LET THIS WHOLE THING GO ON, YEAR AFTER YEAR.

That is what is wrong with this country.

Holding people ACCOUNTABLE IS REASONABLE - not holding people accountable is IRRESPONSIBLE.

WHEN THE DEMOCRATS WENT IRRESPONSIBLE - THAT IS WHEN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BECAME UNFIT TO GOVERN.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Here you have a sad story of the nuttery being hatched by the far rightwing groups like the 'Patriot' movement, under the umbrella of teabaggery:


"By then, Mr. Kane was already involved in what the Anti-Defamation League and the Southern Poverty Law Center, which study hate groups, call the Patriot movement or the “sovereign citizen movement,” extreme groups that believe the government has no legitimate authority. The van Mr. Kane was driving was registered to the House of God’s Prayer at 132 W. Main Street, in New Vienna, Ohio, a vacant building that is owned by an aging white supremacist."

....

"That fight ended in spectacular fashion Thursday in West Memphis, Ark., just across the Mississippi River from Memphis, leaving Mr. Kane, his 16-year-old son, Joseph, and two local police officers dead.

Mr. Kane and Joseph shot the officers who stopped their white van on Interstate 40, then died in a firefight with other law enforcement officials in a Wal-Mart parking lot, wounding a sheriff and his deputy, the authorities said. A newspaper photograph showed Joseph, dead on a traffic island, the bullet-riddled van behind him.

It was only the culmination — the inevitable culmination, some who knew Mr. Kane said — of a struggle that began here in Springfield.

This is where Mr. Kane made a show of cutting his long grass with a pair of scissors when police officers came to his property to enforce city codes, a neighbor recalled. This is where he demanded to be paid $100,000 a day in gold or silver, “the only legal form of payment in the Constitution,” when he was sentenced to community service for traffic violations."

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:41 AM | Report abuse

I haven't read anything in the Fix for quite a while about Nevada -- but it's pretty funny what's going on there now:


You’ve got a sitting governor, Jim Gibbons, who: (1) is being sued by a Vegas cocktail waitress for sexual assault in a parking garage, (2) publicly claimed to have not had sex for fifteen years after being spotted 'consoling' a Playboy model, (3) was caught repeatedly lying about a trip to Washington with his alleged mistress, (4) was recently investigated by the FBI for 18 months.

And then you’ve got Republican Senate primary where the chicken-for-checkups advocate Sue Lowden is regarded as the more sane of two leading candidates:

And as part of this effort, (Senate candidate Sharron) Angle reportedly wants to go to the Senate to fight to privatize Social Security; build nuclear power plants inside Yucca Mountain; eliminate the federal income tax; pull the country out of the United Nations; and allow unlimited campaign contributions. She’s also a hard-right culture warrior, backing the far-right line on immigration and supporting bans on all abortions.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal, a conservative paper, conducted a survey that identified Angle as the Nevada Assembly’s “Worst Member.” Twice.

Angle and Lowden are neck-and-neck."

.

Looks like Harry Reid doesn't have that much to worry about, after all.

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Margaret and everyone


The "winning streak" of special elections is the silliest and most ridiculous thing to say.

The REASON most of those seats were open was because there was a new administration - and some democrats were appointed to go into the administration.

So, for the most part, it was a CONCENTRATION of democrats from SAFE DEMOCRATIC SEATS going to the administration, and thus CREATING VACANCIES.

So - OF COURSE THESE WOULD BE DEMOCRATIC DISTRICTS TO BEGIN WITH.


This is like saying that most of the cabinet positions are held by democrats - so therefor the democrats are on a roll.


NO - the democrats have most cabinet positions because of the last election.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 24, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

screwjob is so well-named... just like comrade zero, drivel, and moonbat--these 'folks' have such a gift for self description.

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:22 AM | Report abuse

"Politico reported that Rove phoned Paul's campaign manager to say he was "hurting himself with all the exposure."

Oh dear -- time for him to crawl into Dick Cheney's bunker, lest he unwittingly reveal what he thinks.

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:19 AM | Report abuse


If you want to know what WaPo hacks are going to write today, you should have asked me yesterday:

Comment on: Republican captures House seat in Hawaii at 5/23/2010 10:25 AM EDT

According to these WaPo hacks who are completely in the bag for Barry, when the Dims win a special election it is a victory, but when the GOP wins it is just "a symbolic victory".

Comment on: Republican captures House seat in Hawaii at 5/23/2010 10:18 AM EDT

"But it don't mean nothin' ..."

Your Editorial Staff

Posted by: screwjob15 | May 24, 2010 11:15 AM | Report abuse

I am similarly outraged blarg, on behalf of all chicken americans.

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 11:14 AM | Report abuse


This is so predictable in fact I predicted it long before Cillizza wrote it:

"It don't mean nothin'..."
- Your Editorial Staff

WaPo hacks are completely in the bag for Barry the incompetent boob Obama and will never play a story straight if it involves Democrat politics.

When a Dim wins it is a victory but when the GOP wins it is just "a symbolic victory".


Posted by: screwjob15 | May 24, 2010 11:08 AM | Report abuse

First they came for the mascot-Americans...
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | May 24, 2010 11:06 AM | Report abuse

This election in Hawaii is totally meaningless. It has nothing to do with Obama who lived there as a teenager, but has a great deal to do with the demographics of the district. Can we move on?

Posted by: purplepatriot | May 24, 2010 11:03 AM | Report abuse

drindl, that is outrageous! My cousin lives in Nevada. Every day, he commutes to his job in San Diego, where he works at the stadium. He planned to vote on his way home. But those fascists in Nevada won't let him, just because he HAPPENS to wear a giant chicken costume to work! Totally unfair. I demand that all mascot-Americans boycott the state of Nevada until this discrimination is rectified!

Posted by: Blarg | May 24, 2010 10:58 AM | Report abuse

I think the factors that led to such a run of special election results have largely dissipated. Rather than anti-incumbency as a theme, I suspect the election will be fought as a series of pitched battles with Republicans trying to nationalize each election and take advantage of voter anger. On that basis, PA-23 stands as a rebuke.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | May 24, 2010 10:56 AM | Report abuse

If Obama's ownBirth Place hate him, where could he be liked?

Posted by: Realist201 | May 24, 2010 7:49 AM
====================================

Hah! Funny to see you birthers, baggers, and rightwing whackjobs admit that Obama was born in Hawaii.

And no, there is zero chance that Djou holds the seat this November.
~

Posted by: ifthethunderdontgetya | May 24, 2010 10:52 AM | Report abuse

House Republicans win in Hawaii but does it matter?

IT MUST, YOU'RE WRITING ABOUT IT! :O)

Posted by: klassylady25 | May 24, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Monday morning fun item....

'Voters dressed in chicken costumes won't be allowed inside Nevada polling places this year.

State election officials on Friday added chicken suits to the list of banned items after weeks of ridicule directed at Republican Senate candidate Sue Lowden.

The millionaire casino executive and former beauty queen recently suggested that people barter with doctors for medical care, like when "our grandparents would bring a chicken to the doctor."

Democrats responded by setting up a website, "Chickens for Checkups," and by sending volunteers in chicken suits to her campaign events.

Lowden is in a 12-way primary race to decide Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's Republican opponent. She had been the front-runner in the race, but has slipped to a tie for the lead in a recent poll.

Under the new rule, chicken costumes will be banned along with political buttons, shirts, hats and signs within 100 feet of polling places."

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 10:44 AM | Report abuse

DDAWD some stats for you.
If the pundits and the GOPers are right the GOP will win the majority of contested seats (estimate that there are 80 seats that are even remotely contested) Now of these 80 seats the GOP currently holds 20 or so of them and the dems hold the rest (n=60). Now the Republicans will need to win 39 of the 60 to retake the house. If we take the past 7 specials as our marker for reality we would compare 1 of 7 to 39 out of 60 using a Fisher's Exact test to see if the real outcome is significnatly different from the null hypothesis (that 39 out of 60 will go to the GOP in the fall). When you do this you find that the real results are significantly different (p=0.015) then the hypothesis offered by the GOP. So in essence the math doesn't add up to the democrats losing the house.

Posted by: AndyR3 | May 24, 2010 10:36 AM | Report abuse

"It's not clear whether Djou has a real chance to win a full term in a one on one race this fall. Hanabusa would seem to be the favorite for the nomination given her more liberal issue positions and second place finish in the special. If she is the nominee, Republicans believe Djou can hold the seat."

Except they don't seem to have any reason to beleive that, do they?

Posted by: drindl | May 24, 2010 10:33 AM | Report abuse


When a House incumbent with a voting record on the stimulus and health care reform bills is in a race against an opposite-party challenger, those results are worth paying attention to.
Until then, all of these one-off, non-incumbent deals mean little or nothing.

Posted by: sacandaga | May 24, 2010 10:27 AM | Report abuse


"the seat Djou won not only gave President Barack Obama 70 percent of the vote but also is the congressional district that the nation's chief executive calls home."

False.
It may be the current district of the place where President Obama was born, but his home district is IL #1.

Posted by: sacandaga | May 24, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

Forget that warship,
BP and The Nature Conservancy have joined forces at established littoral dominance,
or at least,
made greasy beaches.

Posted by: shrink2 | May 24, 2010 10:17 AM | Report abuse

So, I hear there's oil off the Kona coast....

Posted by: blarsen1 | May 24, 2010 10:08 AM | Report abuse

Meanwhile, a moment of silence for one of the patron saints of conservative rightwingnut hypocritical scumbags, Buz Lukens:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/23/AR2010052303268.html?hpid=politics

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | May 24, 2010 10:07 AM | Report abuse

I see the tea tards like Rob Parker still don't do math very well. Djou couldn't even crack 40 percent of the vote. He will be a congressman for seven months.

That's a rejection of Obama only in your little pinhead.

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | May 24, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Typical responses from WP readers, all good for the DEMS, all bad for the REPUBs. This is a win for the REPUBs. The money stopped flowing to the race because you had two DEMs who split the vote and everyone realized that there was no way to win as the DEMs are destroying the party by leaning left which few want to happen. Amazing how many forget that what the government gives out in entitlements through Healthcare and other entitlement programs, employers pay which means those costs are paid by those that are working in the form of reduced benefits, reduced wages, less new hires and less investment in training and education. Get over it, the DEMs have their window right now but don't forget that the left lean is not what is wanted by the majority only those without.

Posted by: mluna123 | May 24, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Typical responses from WP readers, all good for the DEMS, all bad for the REPUBs. This is a win for the REPUBs. The money stopped flowing to the race because you had two DEMs who split the vote and everyone realized that there was no way to win as the DEMs are destroying the party by leaning left which few want to happen. Amazing how many forget that what the government gives out in entitlements through Healthcare and other entitlement programs, employers pay which means those costs are paid by those that are working in the form of reduced benefits, reduced wages, less new hires and less investment in training and education. Get over it, the DEMs have their window right now but don't forget that the left lean is not what is wanted by the majority only those without.

Posted by: mluna123 | May 24, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

BB, to put it in non-statistical terms, what is the probability that the pundits are all correct in their predictions for the fall and these special election results can be completely explained away with the inherent randomness of special elections as well as the individual circumstances of each election?

I agree that randomness and specific circumstances come into play, but I also think these elections are pointing towards a larger narrative. One that is going against what the pundits are saying.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 24, 2010 10:04 AM | Report abuse

Typical responses from WP readers, all good for the DEMS, all bad for the REPUBs. This is a win for the REPUBs. The money stopped flowing to the race because you had two DEMs who split the vote and everyone realized that there was no way to win as the DEMs are destroying the party by leaning left which few want to happen. Amazing how many forget that what the government gives out in entitlements through Healthcare and other entitlement programs, employers pay which means those costs are paid by those that are working in the form of reduced benefits, reduced wages, less new hires and less investment in training and education. Get over it, the DEMs have their window right now but don't forget that the left lean is not what is wanted by the majority only those without.

Posted by: mluna123 | May 24, 2010 10:03 AM | Report abuse

1) a win is a win. When you've lost 6 or 7 in a row, you take what you can get. Whatever asterix you want to put on there, the Dems couldn't put it together to produce a victory; so the Repubs get the seat.

2) I'm with AndyR3: "The threat of a Rubio victory may be enough motivation to drive the Dems to Crist in high enough numbers for him to win soundly." That is the dynamic to watch. Meek has to start making steady progress out of the teens in polling, or he's going to find his support waning. He could end up scoring where the MN IP candidates end up, in the 10% range of the die-hard "I'm voting my convictions, lesser of two evils be damned."

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 24, 2010 10:02 AM | Report abuse

Fortunately, DDAWD, I managed to successfully avoid statistics in college. I did run a T-test a few years ago to get an idea of how meaningful some small number statistics were. I love the fact that the test was invented by someone working at Guinness.

There are a number of parallels in the two House races. In both cases, the vote of the losing party was split. Dems pointed to NY-23 on a night of otherwise bad results. Reps pointed to HA on a week when they'd had a bad loss, faced a tougher challenge in PA Senate and their winning candidate in the KY Senate primary is imploding. I think both winners will have a tough job holding the seat come November.

There's no spinning the result in PA-23. If Critz winning is a loss for the Dems, I'll take a lot more losses like that, thank you very much.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | May 24, 2010 9:52 AM | Report abuse

BB, of course all of these special elections have asterisks due to special circumstances. But some asterisks are larger than others, I would think. NY-23 was weird, but it was still essentially a one-on-one race. This Hawaii race would have to be the biggest asterisk so far simply because it was a true 3 way race (and it won't be in the fall) Ultimately, we don't care about the seats per se, but rather what they tell us about the upcoming elections. Hence the significance of the PA-12. These are the types of districts that Republicans are targeting, not the ones that are like HI-1. And of course, none of these elections have especially great predictive value, but remember that this is supposed to be a REALLY bad year for Dems. They need to take advantage of the situation this year. Obama is back on the ballot in 2012.

One interesting thing to note about the Hawaii districts. In most districts, Obama outperformed Kerry and Gore bye a few percentage points, typically in the 5% range. However, in Hawaii, Obama beat Kerry and Gore by about 15 points. This leads me to believe that the district isn't a true 70% Dem district. Obama got a boost from his home state, but the HI-1 district might be more conservative than that when selecting local politicians. (in this district, Kerry got 53% and Gore got 56% compared to Obama's 70%)

I think this could mean one of two things.

1) Djou might have a decent shot at winning in November since the seat is more purple than Obama's 70% would suggest.

2) With the Dems winning 60%, this is yet another election where the Republicans have failed to make any inroads. Now a lot of these special elections are in very blue districts (Wexler's seat, Rahm's seat, Tauscher's seat) These are all seats that Dems could be expected to win, but the fact that Rs couldn't even keep the races somewhat competitive is a bad omen for them. This is why I think NY-23 is more meaningful than others. Yeah, Owens won because of the quirkiness of the election. But remember, these guys don't elect Dems even in their GOOD years. And in this bad environment, just forget about it. But Owens was competitive and won. Same with PA-12. Yeah, it's a Dem seat, but Burns wasn't even CLOSE. Yeah, Critz ran as a conservative Democrat, but guess what? Republicans are going to face a lot of Dems who run as conservatives this November. 35 Dems voted against the Affordable Care Act. Are these guys all going to win by 10 points? If the pundits are right, these elections sure don't indicate it.

BB, in scientific terms, if the predictions of Chris C and the punditocracy represent the null hypothesis, these special elections are telling us something different. If you had to guesstimate a p value for these special election results, what would it be?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 24, 2010 9:28 AM | Report abuse

"House Republicans have now broken the six-race special election streak held over them by Democrats for the past two years..."

The GOP is clearly desperate for good news (other than fox news), and this win should get them good and riled up... especially after the Rand Paul fiasco.

This all makes for an intersting election season in 2010. The clock is ticking:

* With a high average age, the teabagger/birther voter pool is dying off.

* As the year advances, President Obama's victories keep piling up, Health Care Reform, Wall Street Reform. Key will be how tough he treats BP on the gulf catastrophe.

* The Democrats seem willing to work quietly and let the GOP folks make all the noise, and flubs... they always seem to hang themselves...the issue will be how many will hang themselves and how badly.

I think the GOP will win about half of the seats they need for majority in the house. In otherwords, their dead-cat bounce will only be moderate, and fox news pudnuts cheerleading will again be ineffective. The GOP will then have to decide whether to pretend their approach is successful, or seriously consider reinventing their party (for real success).

Posted by: free-donny | May 24, 2010 9:04 AM | Report abuse

All the oter seats? Like the Pennsylvania 12th? But Birthers take note. Even the highly partisan Conservatives are acknowledging Obama was born in Hawaii.
_______________________________________
Not at all, it's even BETTER. Obama is even being rejected in his CHOSEN home state..
Posted by: RobParker | May 24, 2010 8:53 AM
___________________________________________
1. Obama did not choose Hawaii as a place to be born, his parents did.

2. Obama was not on the ballot. He was not rejected.

3. The two Democrats on the ballot took 60% of the vote. Hardly a repudiation of anything Democratic.

4. If your going to join in the Republican attempt to spin this one election, get some better talking points. Your's are worthless.

Posted by: Lefty_ | May 24, 2010 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Another shot across the bow of this clueless Administration!!!! WaPO's spin is pathetic!!
Posted by: Jimbo77 | May 24, 2010 8:46 AM
___________________________________________
Perhaps you missed the part of the article where it says that "House Republicans have now broken the six-race special election streak held over them by Democrats." Another shot indeed!

Posted by: Lefty_ | May 24, 2010 8:56 AM | Report abuse

Does the GOP Hawaii House seat win matter? Only about as much as the Democrat wins in New York and Pennsyvania special elections recently.

I don't think anyone can conceive that the GOP won't bounce off the bottom and gain some seats in the house and senate. How much of their credibility they can reclaim is the debate.

It is mathmatically impossible for the GOP to win a majority in the Senate in 2010, so the House is where the action is centered. They need to gain somewhere near 40 seats in the House to gain a majority. If the GOP fails to gain more than 20... they need to go back to the drawin board.

Posted by: free-donny | May 24, 2010 8:54 AM | Report abuse

All the oter seats? Like the Pennsylvania 12th? But Birthers take note. Even the highly partisan Conservatives are acknowledging Obama was born in Hawaii.
________________________________________

Not at all, it's even BETTER. Obama is even being rejected in his CHOSEN home state..

Posted by: RobParker | May 24, 2010 8:53 AM | Report abuse

These "anomolies" are sure piling up against the Dems. Maybe someday, they'll put down their crack pipes and get a clue... They've been REJECTED..

Posted by: RobParker | May 24, 2010 8:49 AM | Report abuse

Another shot across the bow of this clueless Administration!!!! WaPO's spin is pathetic!!

Posted by: Jimbo77 | May 24, 2010 8:46 AM | Report abuse

What a great change in Hawaii with Honolulu going Republican! Just think of all th eother Democratic seats going Republican in the midterms. If Obama's ownBirth Place hate him, where could he be liked?
Posted by: Realist201 | May 24, 2010 7:49 AM
___________________________________________
All the oter seats? Like the Pennsylvania 12th? But Birthers take note. Even the highly partisan Conservatives are acknowledging Obama was born in Hawaii.

Posted by: Lefty_ | May 24, 2010 8:42 AM | Report abuse

In unrelated news, The Nature Conservancy's CEO, Mark Tercek, came to the role directly from Goldman Sachs, where his job had been to, you guessed it, Greenwash the company's image. Uh oh!

Posted by: shrink2 | May 24, 2010 8:39 AM | Report abuse

Illegal versus legal, non-white versus white, federal versus state, blue versus red, city versus country, rich/poor versus middle class, secular progressive/Muslim versus Christian, rulers versus ruled — as an idiot might have been able to predict, the moonbat demagogue in the White House is tearing our country apart.

Posted by: Moonbat | May 24, 2010 8:29 AM | Report abuse

BB, you may be correct, but as you posted previously, this should be seen as raising Djou's chances in November. Betting should be on the D, then, but Djou has a chance to build on his 40%, which should be seen as a somewhat stronger than expected showing.

What it does not signal is anything that extrapolates to the mainland.
------------------------
I receive a large volume of "hate BHO" email every day.
An amazing volume, fwd'd by people I know. I see the anxiety about jobs and the economy dissipating here in TX, where we are growing again, but my friends around the country see a different picture. Fear and anxiety create the potential for over reaction, and the Rs will capitalize on that.
-----------------------
HI -1 is not part of THAT narrative.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | May 24, 2010 8:27 AM | Report abuse

Analysis of current and future elections should be based on changes since the socialist agenda has been revealed.

In the two most recent votes, there was a shift of ten points away from the present idents party.

Consider the slaughter when every district in the country moves ten points away from obumbler/ peloony/ Reid.

Posted by: Moonbat | May 24, 2010 8:12 AM | Report abuse

Nice column CC, although I think the GOP is smoking crack if they think they will hold this seat in November. If the DCCC hadn't backed Case then Hanabusa would have won straight out. The same thing may also happen in the NY-23rd next November but we shall see. Also a little point of contention, the Democrats have a 77 seat majority, the 39 number you mentioned is how many seats have to flip from Democrat to Republican for them to take back the house. The problem with that number is that it doesn't take into account the seats that will flip from R to D (DE 1st for example). And on that same point Boucher will be just fine. He basically knows every single person in his district personally by now.

Crist is making the right move by going after blue dog democratic voters. Also if the polls continue to show Meeks in the 15-20 range then I would suspect that the democrats may start moving slowly to Crist. The threat of a Rubio victory may be enough motivation to drive the Dems to Crist in high enough numbers for him to win soundly.

Ned Lamont's massive loss is somewhat suprising to me. I guess his 15 minutes of fame when he took on Lieberman didn't go over very well with the party faithful. It also may have to with the fact that according to things I read when he ran in 06 is that the guy has the charisma of horned cane toad. Simpson's interlude, "I'm not not licking toads".

Posted by: AndyR3 | May 24, 2010 8:11 AM | Report abuse

It means however you try to spin it. If there had been one DEM on the ticket, he would have been slaughtered in the polls, as it were, there was not 1 dem but 2. Come November, he's out anyway. So GOP will spin it their way and and DEM's will spin it the other way...but when it comes right down to it, it really doesn't mean a thing...

Posted by: Krazijoe | May 24, 2010 7:59 AM | Report abuse

What a great change in Hawaii with Honolulu going Republican! Just think of all th eother Democratic seats going Republican in the midterms. If Obama's ownBirth Place hate him, where could he be liked?

Posted by: Realist201 | May 24, 2010 7:49 AM | Report abuse

Hawaii is just another step closer to REPLACEMENT, REPEAL and ReCoding America back to Americanism, Capitalism and Freedom for all. Then we take Congress, impeach obama and get back to business and full employment again...after repairing the damage from Obama and the Naked Rahm, the marxist Shower Stall Thumper (fact).

Posted by: Patriot_Eagle | May 24, 2010 7:47 AM | Report abuse

Wow...the new theme among WP journalists seems to be, "Yes...Republicans won again, but it doesn't mean anything."

Maybe I have to remind Chris Cillizza that he's a journalist. Journalists like to make a big deal out of even the smallest bit of information, like when Cillizza devoted a column to Rand Paul's interpretation to 45-year-old legislation.

So, if things that favor Democrats are a big deal, and things that favor Republicans aren't, that seems to make Cillizza pretty biased by any measure. Not that we should be surprised by this, mind you, but it would be helpful for Cillizza to know that his articles and approach are not suited for a first-year student in journalism school.

Posted by: diehardlib | May 24, 2010 7:47 AM | Report abuse

If you want to know how popular or successful a politician is, all you have to do is ask the voters in the location where they were allegedly born. If that district is overwhelmingly slanted toward one party or the other, the swing can be quite startling.

Of course, these political failures must be interested in what voters think for the result to matter. It is also helpful if the press is honest and fair.

Cilizza your list of lame excuses is pitiful.

Posted by: Moonbat | May 24, 2010 7:43 AM | Report abuse

The Hawaii special and NY-23 mean about the same thing. A morale boosting win with an asterisk due to extenuating circumstances.

Have a good day, all.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | May 24, 2010 7:31 AM | Report abuse

This news about Leinenkugel is going to break 37th's heart. And the "not popular with convention-goers" was a gratuitous blow.

Poor 37th. :'-(

Posted by: margaretmeyers | May 24, 2010 6:42 AM | Report abuse

I suppose there is a fine point to one of the CD special elections that I ma missing, but when I look at Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_by_seniority

I see SEVEN CD special elections won by Democrats since the seating of this Congress. If you add the string of CD special elections won by Democrats before this congress, the winning streak goes to 10 wins in a row for the Democrats. The last Republican to win a CD special election was Steve Scalise of Louisianna who won his seat a little over two years ago.

Djou is going to be the new Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, jumping from Washington to Hawaii as often as he can, learning a new job and campaigning. Good luck in November!

Posted by: margaretmeyers | May 24, 2010 6:34 AM | Report abuse

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