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Morning Fix: Reid's Early-Bird Ad Strategy



Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is already running television ads in support of his re-election. Photo by Brendan Hoffman/Bloomberg

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) took to the Nevada airwaves this week with a series of ads designed to reintroduce him to the state's voters more than a year before any votes will be cast.

Reid launched two different ads on Thursday. One, which is running in Las Vegas, focuses on his role in keeping construction going on the City Center project; the other, running in the Reno market, is a more straightforward bio piece detailing the Democrat's hard-scrabble roots and tenacity.

The commercials, which began airing 383 days before next November's vote, are -- depending who you ask -- a sign of Reid's desperation amid faltering poll numbers or simply a planned re-introduction effort for a man who hasn't been on the ballot for six years.

Reid allies insist that the ads are born out of a demographic necessity. The population growth is so rapid in Nevada that the campaign estimates that 30 percent of the state's voters are new residents since Reid was last on the ballot in 2004.

"Long planned to begin airing a year out from the election, the two spots will begin introducing the Majority Leader to the 395,749 new voters registered in Nevada since his last election in 2004, or approximately one third of all registered voters in the state," read a press release touting the commercials.

Plus, they note, Reid, as the most powerful Senator in the chamber, has the ability to deliver for the state in a way that no one else can and it's best in the context of a campaign to remind voters of that early and often.

Left unsaid but undoubtedly also true is that Reid's position in the Senate means that he will be able to raise and spend as much as he likes, so, given his political vulnerability at the moment, why not start spending now. (Reid ended September with more than $8 million on hand.)

Those less favorably inclined to Reid insist that the ads are a knee-jerk reaction to recent polling that shows the Democrat trailing both former Republican party chairwoman Sue Lowden and businessman Danny Tarkanian in head to head matchups.

"He needs to change the game," said Republican pollster Glen Bolger of Reid. "His image is so poor that waiting would be a disaster. If this doesn't improve his image, then he's the Jim Zorn of senators -- waiting to be fired." (Great Zornie reference! He is still the coach -- for now.)

Recent history of early ad campaigns in contested Senate races provides mixed results.

In 2008, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) ran his first ads, which, like Reid's, focused on what he could accomplish for the state, in mid-November of 2007. McConnell went on to defeat Democrat Bruce Lunsford 53 percent to 47 percent, a victory due in part to the transactional argument -- "I can get things for you" -- that he laid out in those early ads.

Democratic Senate Leader Tom Daschle (S.D.) began his ad campaign for his 2004 re-election race against John Thune (R) in June of 2003 but wound up coming up short on election day. (Daschle aides argue that the early commercials helped them move the race from a double-digit deficit to a dead heat and, therefore, did work even if their candidate ultimately lost.)

And, earlier this year, embattled Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D) ran a flight of ads -- including one that featured an endorsement from the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) -- but didn't see his numbers move significantly. Dodd's numbers have, however, improved since those summer ads but it's not clear that movement had anything to do with the commercials.

The argument for ads like this is that Reid will be on television long before his likely Republican opponents and will have ample opportunity to make a positive case to voters for why he should be re-elected before the negative assault begins.

The argument against the early ads is that more than a year before an election voters simply aren't focused on campaign politics and, given that, running television commercials is akin to flushing your money down the toilet.

Our sense? These ads represent a gamble by Reid but a necessary gamble. He is in deep political trouble and must find ways to change the way he is perceived by voters before Republicans pick their nominee and the negative ads wars begin.

Friday Fix Picks:

1. Recount time in the Afghanistan elections
2. Bubba's going into New Jersey.
3. What ever happened to Wes Clark?
4. Jennifer Brunner is staying in.
5. Tom Sietsema's Dining Guide -- version 2009 -- is here!

Lincoln Poll Suggests Steadiness: A new poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee suggests that Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is in better shape than many political analysts seem to believed. The poll, which was conducted by Pete Brodnitz, shows Lincoln at 50 percent against her two main Republican challengers. Lincoln leads state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who is expected to be the nominee, by a 50 percent to 37 percent margin, and holds a 51 percent to 37 percent edge over state Sen. Kim Hendren. Lincoln's favorable numbers also sit at 50 percent, a respectable if not particularly strong place for an incumbent to be. "Despite months of attacks from both the extreme right and the extreme left, and now from the insurance industry...Senator Lincoln remains well- positioned for re-election in 2010." writes Brodnitz in a polling memo obtained by the Fix. Republicans have made Lincoln a major target in 2010 due to the state's GOP lean; Sen. John McCain (R) carried it by 20 points last November. This data suggests that while Lincoln is far from out of the woods, she is not in the same level of trouble as Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Chris Dodd (D-Conn.).

Coakley Rakes It In: Further cementing her frontrunner status in advance of the Dec. 8 Democratic primary special election in Massachusetts, state Attorney General Martha Coakley raised better than $1.9 million for her candidacy over the last three months. All told, Coakley collected $2.18 million in the past 90 days although $255,000 of that can only be spent in a general election; she ended September with $1.95 million in the bank. "We more than doubled our fundraising goals for the month of September thanks to supporters who recognize my record of getting results as Attorney General," Coakley said in a release touting the numbers. Coakley's fundraising was matched by Bain Capital Managing Partner Steve Pagliuca (D), who dropped $1.8 million of his own money into the campaign and raised another $200,000. Former City Year co-founder Alan Khazei (D) raised $1.1 million while Rep. Michael Capuano (D) collected $343,000. Coakley's fundraising coupled with her wide lead in early polls and the short election time frame make her the clear favorite not just in the primary but in the Jan. 19 special election as well.

Click It!: Alaska's intrepid political reporter Matt Felling -- a member of the Fix's list of best political journalists -- has come up with a novel way to bridge the gap between the Last Frontier and Capitol Hill. Felling will interview Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Mark Begich (D) once a week on tape and broadcast the 10-15 minute broadcast as Alaska's version of "Meet the Press"(!). Episode one -- with Murkowski -- is now available.

Biden, Castle in Dead Heat: Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D) and Rep. Mike Castle (R) are in a statistical tie in the state's Senate race, according to a new poll conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos blog. Castle, who surprised the political world by announcing he was running last week, took 46 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Biden, the eldest son of Vice President Joe Biden whose seat is up for grabs in 2010. Both candidates also carried strong favorable ratings; 65 percent of voters had a favorable feeling toward Beau Biden while 64 percent said the same of Castle. If, as expected, Biden decides to run for his father's old seat, this data suggests the race starts off as one of the closest in the country.

Frazier Switches Races in CO: Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R), who had been running to challenge appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) next fall, dropped his statewide candidacy and will now run against Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) in the suburban Denver 7th district. Frazier had struggled mightily to raise the sort of money a statewide race would necessitate, showing only $143,000 collected between April 1 and June 30. Given his poor fundraising and the presence of former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) in the race, the writing was on the wall for Frazier. Perlmutter won the 7th in 2006 with 55 percent of the vote and took 63 percent in his first re-election race last fall. The seat, which was drawn to be competitive between the two parties, moved toward Democrats in 2008 and President Obama carried it with 59 percent.

Talk to Me: If it's Friday, it's time once again for the Live Fix -- an hour-long online chat with yours truly. The festivities get started at 11 a.m. but you can also submit questions in advance if you feel so inclined. See you there!

Say What?: "No, no, I like -- Bobby is doing a good job." -- President Barack Obama responded to boos at the mention of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's (R) name at a town hall in the Pelican State Thursday.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 16, 2009; 6:00 AM ET
Categories:  Morning Fix  
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Comments

@drindl - Probably about as well as Jake's Boston boycott.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 17, 2009 5:22 PM | Report abuse

Gooooooo 'Ten for Tark!'

Posted by: joelwisch | October 16, 2009 9:56 PM | Report abuse

I think the photograph makes it look like the Mother Ship has arrived to upload Reid for a full body probe. And he's being stoic about it.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | October 16, 2009 8:12 PM | Report abuse

drindl:

OK, Tamiflu for early treatment too. I'll shut up now.

"Shindo noted that, although a few cases have been reported of people who have been infected with virus that is resistant to antiviral drugs, the medications remain highly effective for most patients if administered quickly."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/16/AR2009101601384.html?hpid=topnews

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Reid, allow me to suggest that you could save a lot of money on the ads and get much better results (at least from your point of view) if you would actually attend to business and see to it that the Senate does what your constituents, I mean voters, want it to. Namely, get a good, strong public option in health reform. That would do a lot more for your support than all the ads in the world.

It would mean that you would have to abandon your real constituency, the money boys, but if everyone has a single vote, then a lot of little people voting for you will beat a few big people voting against you. A straight flush 2-3-4-5-6 beats two aces.

Posted by: dkmjr | October 16, 2009 2:48 PM | Report abuse

drindl:

Ack. I hate having to retract my words. Tamiflu-resistant 2009 H1N1 has been found in a couple of girls in NC. So, Tamiflu for prophylaxis but not treatment.

There aren't any really thorough studies why young adults seem to have more severe disease. Most of the people hospitalized have underlying disease (asthma, diabetes, pulmonary and heart disease) and more recently it looks like bacterial pneumonia is contributing to 2009 H1N1 deaths (preventable by pneumococcal vaccine).

mark_in_austin:
The 1957 flu was H2N2, so that's probably not where older people acquired residual immunity to 2009 H1N1. More likely, it was a H1N1 strain circulating in the early '50s, or even late '40s. There have been relatively few hospitalizations for people over 65 with 2009 H1N1.

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 2:45 PM | Report abuse

drindl, I was told that because I was born in 1943 I had been exposed to similar strains before I became an adult.
If my medicare doc was not blowing smoke, there was the inference that people born after some date had no acquired immunity. I did get real sick in '57-'58 from the flu which wiped out my entire x-country team when I was a 14 year old HS soph. Maybe that was the one similar to this one?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 2:25 PM | Report abuse

The 1918 H1N1 had a first wave of mild virulence, very few deaths, then a second wave in the fall that killed a whole lotta people.

"This is a bad one, Dek, the worst yet."
-- Capt. Bryant (M. Emmett Walsh) "Bladerunner"

It could be very bad. We're a lot more concentrated and travel between cities and countries is a lot easier now than in 1918.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 2:17 PM | Report abuse

mteng: .Does anyone have any idea why young people are so much more affected by this particular flu virus than usual?

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 2:10 PM | Report abuse

drindl:

For now, 2009 H1N1 flu is sensitive to Tamiflu, though the seasonal H1N1 is not. Gotta get your flu shot to prevent the seasonal flu. 2009 H1N1 vaccine still isn't widely available, but higher risk groups (e.g., young adults) get priority.

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 2:00 PM | Report abuse

shrink, check out this new study:

"They believe Obama is ruthlessly advancing a 'secret agenda' to bankrupt the United States and dramatically expand government control to an extent nothing short of socialism," the analysis said." While these voters are disdainful of a Republican Party they view to have failed in its mission, they overwhelmingly view a successful Obama presidency as the destruction of this country's founding principles and are committed to seeing the president fail."

HOwever,

By contrast, Democracy Corps also interviewed a separate group of somewhat conservative-leaning swing voters, and these attitudes were not to be found: "One of the most telling differences between the partisan Republican groups and the independent groups was the language they used. Conservative Republicans fully embrace the 'socialism' attacks on Obama and believe it is the best, most accurate framework for describing him and his agenda. Independents largely dismiss these attacks as the kind of overblown partisan rhetoric that obscures the facts and only serves to cheapen the political discourse."

And this is why the next two elections will see republicans split and Democrats making big gains.

The R base is paranoid and narcisistic, and the rest of their own party isn't.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 1:58 PM | Report abuse

shrink, I have honestly never seen a bigger phony than Beck. He's today's P.T. Barnum. He's the darling of this group -- the biggest whiners in history:

"Conservatives see themselves as an oppressed minority, holding on to knowledge that isn't represented in the wider media and culture: "Conservative Republicans passionately believe that they represent a group of people who have been targeted by a popular culture and set of liberal elites - embodied in the liberal mainstream media - that mock their values and are actively working to advance the downfall of the things that matter most to them in their lives - their faith, their families, their country, and their freedom."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/democracy-corps-republican-base-voters-living-in-another-world.php?ref=tn

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 1:55 PM | Report abuse

The Koolaid at Fox must be super strength.

We know the Vicks VapoRub is. Did he "cry"?

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 1:45 PM | Report abuse

Back on topic:

Does anyone really think that this early ad campaign is not primarily a sign of Reid's desperation amid faltering poll numbers (would he REALLY have been wasting money of ads in OCTOBER 2009 if his approval ratings were above any potential opponent)? Apart from that, does anyone know what the new voter make-up is? Conservative voters fleeing from California?

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:44 PM | Report abuse

As if by magic, the lead story on the WaPo web site is on this topic right now. As for me and mine, definitely go with the Tamiflu if someone is really ill. Disclaimer: this is personal, not medical advice, I am opining as some stranger on the internet, in any case I am not licensed in your state and so on [insert tons of legalese here]. I have already been through one prophy course as I was surely exposed recently, not sick yet...

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 1:43 PM | Report abuse

As long as Beck's market share increases, good for him!

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Nazi, Communist, which is Obama, shrink? They can't seem to make up their minds. Here's the latest stupid:

"On his Fox News show yesterday, Glenn Beck escalated his character assassination war against the Obama administration, promising his audience that he was going to show them “something that will melt your brain.” “I’m going to ask you to do something I don’t think I’ve asked you to do before,” said Beck. “Stay the hour with me. Please, watch this hour. Call your friends. There is information that you’re just not going to see anyplace else.”

After retelling his theory of communistic sympathies in the White House, Beck revealed that his big surprise was a video of White House Communications Director Anita Dunn quoting Mao Zedong and calling him one of her “favorite political philosophers,” who she cites to “deliver a simple point, which is, you’re going to make choices.” Beck then used the video to connect Dunn to the millions of people Mao killed, saying “this is her hero’s work!”

The Washington Independent’s Dave Weigel, noting the audience’s laughter when Dunn praises both Mao and Mother Teresa as political philosophers, writes “it’s a joke to everyone but the grim-faced Beck.” Weigel then points out that Dunn is not the only prominent political figure to quote Mao in order to “deliver a simple point,” linking to a video of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) saying, “in the words of Chairman Mao, it’s always darkest before it’s totally black.”

The Koolaid at Fox must be super strength.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 1:31 PM | Report abuse

I have been hearing about that, shrink --and i agree. My daughter's boyfriend went home from college with flu symptoms -- fever, headache, chills -- and the kid is 18 and really healthy. She says he's very sick. I am worried about him, and her too, of course.

I've heard Tamiflu doesn't do all that much. What do you think?

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 1:24 PM | Report abuse

shrink2:

Hope you saved some of that Tamiflu for yourself if you're seeing a lot of patients with URI/LRI.

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 1:23 PM | Report abuse

I know there is no point in complaining about the endless, utterly spurious references to Nazis in out political culture. But to be serious for just a second, I just ordered Tamiflu for two in-patients with bad URIs this morning. H1N1 is a very worrisome illness that could mutate to so much more serious virulence (SARS like) at any time. This one has the capacity to kill healthy young people very fast and we do not know why. I think any health worker who chooses not to get immunized is a fool, no matter what some judge says.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 1:14 PM | Report abuse

drindl:

How's your "boycott" against Glenn Beck working?

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 12:54 PM | Report abuse

FLASH: NY APPEALS COURT STRIKES DOWN MANDATORY SWINE FLU SHOTS FOR HEALTH WORKERS AS VIOLATION OF CIVIL RIGHTS


Score one for the opponents of Gestapo USA (see "stories," http://NowPublic.com/scrivener).

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 16, 2009 12:52 PM | Report abuse

Rush is a member of the new Narcissist Party, shrink -- the teabagger group who imagine the world revolves around them. You are indeed witnessing the downward spiral of the R party.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Yes, this is why I am not too worried about the Republican Rising!, incumbent anger notwithstanding.

The party is falling apart as we watch. There is clear split, opening wider now as elections approach and money starts to flow. There are the Michelle Bachman types, people who flirt with extra-judicial violence and are proud to be ignorant
http://dumpbachmann.blogspot.com,
because that way you get to make stuff up and believe it too. Then there are the career politicians of the Republican party, people with reputations to protect.

In race after race we are seeing this divide develop and of course, the money splits too. I hope Rush, Beck, Hannity and Savage are proud of themselves. Imagine the narcissism of a man who thinks his bid to buy a piece of a football team was killed by the POTUS.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Google: Bill Clinton Echelon

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 12:44 PM | Report abuse

Yes, WHEN will Congress, Team Obama, wake up (assuming arguendo they are not already in on it)?!

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 12:36 PM | Report abuse

URGENT TO: CONGRESSIONAL JUDICIARY/INTEL/DEFENSE COMMITTEE MEMBERS & STAFF

Faux "cellphone" microwave towers: the Xyklon B of the secretive security- directed "multi-agency coordinated action program" (a/k/a, the Grassroots Gestapo).

When will Congress, Team Obama, wake up and smell the neurological entrainment (read: DOMESTIC TORTURE)?

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america
OR (if link is entrained): http://NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: "GESTAPO USA"

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 16, 2009 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the visuals, drindl; I'm trying to have lunch.

Posted by: jasperanselm | October 16, 2009 12:17 PM | Report abuse

armpit i imagine as some big hairy perpetually angry guy.. dottydodo as a fat woman with yellow hair and arms bulging out of her sleeves. just the images that come to mind...

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 12:10 PM | Report abuse

I'm back.

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Mark, that was last week's live fix. For some reason, that's what you get when you click on Live Fix above. Last week, oddly.

Shrink, Graham is a prime example of an R who may well be in trouble because of the teabag crowd. They are determined to purge him and anyone that's not a bonafide unelectable loony. I wish them luck.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 12:07 PM | Report abuse

I'm pretty sure the screamer the security guy has to deal with, the one in the yellow "Don't tread on me." T-shirt is armpeg and I saw dottydo over on the side yelling.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 12:05 PM | Report abuse

I'm back.

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 12:05 PM | Report abuse

We were doing so well.

Then the drivl started.

Posted by: snowbama | October 16, 2009 11:45 AM | Report abuse

drindl and bsimon, here is more evidence of the party tearing itself asunder.

L Graham is attacked for working with Kerry to connect domestic energy production to cap and trade legislation. I guess he didn't screech drill baby drill! loud enough for his constituents.

http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/sen-graham-takes-heat-for-climate-stance/?hp

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 11:32 AM | Report abuse

The Live Fix was devoted to BHO's Nobel. I post here part of TR's acceptance of his NPP.

-----------------------------
"I think it eminently just and proper that in most cases the recipient of the prize should keep for his own use the prize in its entirety. But in this case, while I did not act officially as President of the United States, it was nevertheless only because I was President that I was enabled to act at all; and I felt that the money must be considered as having been given me in trust for the United States. I therefore used it as a nucleus for a foundation to forward the cause of industrial peace, as being well within the general purpose of your committee; for in our complex industrial civilization of today the peace of righteousness and justice, the only kind of peace worth having, is at least as necessary in the industrial world as it is among nations. There is at least as much need to curb the cruel greed and arrogance of part of the world of capital, to curb the cruel greed and violence of part of the world of labor, as to check a cruel and unhealthy militarism in international relationships."
--------------------------------------
TR's idea for an industrial peace foundation never came to be. By 1918 it was clear the the foundation would not go forward. Instead, during World War I, he donated the funds to war relief efforts.
------------------------------------
The Prez should take a clue and a cue from TR.
"...the money must be considered as having been given me in trust for the United States" is a line he should use with attribution. Then donating it to our peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan would be one suggestion that comes to mind, through a committee consisting of the SecDef, SecState, and Holbrooke.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 11:29 AM | Report abuse

buba its a plot from planet zenon they are really in control of the lasers and microwave tower's

Posted by: getsix1 | October 16, 2009 11:29 AM | Report abuse

'This year's GOP support of the unrest at TEA parties may turn out to bite their collective butt...'

They created a monster, bsimon. Their enabling of this small but inarticulate group of fringe rightwingers is going to cause them major headaches and lost seats.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 11:21 AM | Report abuse

reason5, pls contact me at

mark_in_austin@operamail.com

Thanks.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Time for the Live Fix chat.

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 11:00 AM | Report abuse

bsimon pick:
The Fix has inexplicably ignored one of the more interesting political stories today: a new poll for this fall's special election in NY 23 shows enough support for Conservative/TEA party candidate Hoffman pulling support from Scozzofava (R) such that the Dem (Owens) is in the lead.

Watch for an ongoing battle for the GOP over the next 6 to 9 months as 'real' conservatives challenge GOP insiders in primaries nationwide. Yesterday, the Fix covered R.Paul's efforts in the race for Bunning's senate seat representing KY. This year's GOP support of the unrest at TEA parties may turn out to bite their collective butt...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125564976279388879.html

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 10:56 AM | Report abuse

Odd that that the best qualified candidate in the Massachusetts Senate race---Congressman Mike Capuano----raised the least amount of money. Barring endorsements from more prominent Massachusetts Democrats--he's already been endorsed by Barney Frank, but could use the endorsements of Markey, Mennino and Patrick not to mention a prominent Kennedy or two---it appears as though Capuano will have a difficult time being competitive. That's truly unfortunate for Massachusetts, as he is much better qualified than Coakley. He, unlike Coakley, won't need on-the-job training.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 10:45 AM | Report abuse

TO: Jake D @ 10:20 a.m.

AMERICA'S GRASSROOTS GESTAPO FEEDS ON THE NAIVETE OF LIBERALS

Did Bill Clinton approve mind- and body-degrading microwave radiation weapons --- or was this weaponry presented to him, and to naive liberals, as "non-lethal" or "less-lethal," intended to "save lives" and make law enforcement more "humane" -- as human beings are being silently cooked and fried from the inside out, their physiological and neurological functioning degraded and impaired?

These Nazi-like programs are enabled by the naivete of liberals and centrists, who must wake up and smell the police state -- before any semblance of democracy and human liberty vanishes from a badly-diseased body politic.

and JakeD -- just which side are you on, boy? I could venture a guess...

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 16, 2009 10:39 AM | Report abuse

Wow, like the good old days, Margaret yesterday on the PA situation, then OHIOC. and reason5 with the deep dish today...I come here to learn and it is working!

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 10:39 AM | Report abuse

I agree this strategy is both necessary and sensible for Reid. He needs to remind folks at home that his influence as the "most powerful Senator" is a plus for Nevada. There is alot of anti-incumbent and anti-Washington fervor throughout the country. It's really not pro-Republican fervor as Republicans are still rated very low in all national polls, but there is lots of anxiety and it would not be surprising to see a larger-than-usual number of incumbents of both parties defeated in next year's House elections, though not necessarily Senate. Since they hold control currently, anti-incumbent fervor is worse for Democrats than for Republicans, but it seems like it may be rough for anyone not in a very safe seat.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 10:37 AM | Report abuse

Reid's photo: The real blur is in the foreground.

Posted by: optimyst | October 16, 2009 10:33 AM | Report abuse

"Interesting picture of Reid. Did some DaVinci photoshop in that halo or does that ring just float over his head all the time?"

The roccoco ceilings of our fine public buildings lend themselves to this kind of shot-- they always give me a giggle. Reid looks like Saint Curmudgeon.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 10:30 AM | Report abuse

scrivener50:

If Bill Clinton AND Barack Obama are simply naive and apparently misinformed, isn't that possibly the case with George Bush and Dick Cheney?

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 10:28 AM | Report abuse

That is more good news for Republicans in Ohio that Brunner is staying in the Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Fisher. Initial polling shows this race close, but conventional wisdom says Fisher will pull away as he has the establishment behind his bid. Either way, Portman's strong fundraising and cash will allow him to build his campaign organization stronger and continue to fundraise while Sec. of State Brunner & Lt. Gov. Fisher fight it out for the Democratic nomination. Strong support from Voinovich would also be helpful to Portman. This GE is likely to be nasty, whomever Portman faces. He will need his money to bash his D opponent and defend his involvement in the Bush Administration. If Fisher is the D nominee, he will also need lots of cash defending his stint as Lt. Gov. under Strickland.

Posted by: reason5 | October 16, 2009 10:27 AM | Report abuse

scrivener50:

Why "unbeknownst" to Clinton? Given his EIGHT years in office, it's more likely that he approved of it. Google: Bill Clinton Echelon

Seriously, at some point, it's got to become obvious to you that Obama is in on all of these "directed energy weapons". Keep your tin foil hat on tight.

Gallenod:

We don't have to argue about it. Don't you think that the alleged 400,000 new voters in Nevada basically know who Harry Reid is already (and Nancy Pelosi for that matter)? I'm simply questioning the campaign cover story.

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 10:20 AM | Report abuse

I think this is a good strategy for Reid. Especially if a Republican primary will take place between Lowden & Tarkanian. Nevada see's in the national media what Reid is doing in Washington, not what he's doing for Nevada. This is a way to for Reid to be able to say "this is what I'm doing in the US for you, the people of Nevada!" Reid can define himself in a positive light to try and get his ratings up before the negative ads flow. This is a very smart strategy for Reid, who will not face a primary.

I do think Senator Lincoln is very vulnerable. The Republican will tie her to big spending & Obama, who is very unpopular in Arkansas. Lincoln better be a fundraising machine, because if not she is going to be in big trouble. I still wouldn't be surprised to see Cornyn catch some big name Republican to run. Even if not, Lincoln is still in for a tough race.

Coakley is looking more and more automatic as the days go bye.

Biden & Castle is very close. I'm not so sure Biden won't bow out and stay in the Attorney General's office. That would be a smart move for him and a guaranteed avenue to stay in politics, as he would win reelection big. That would about guarantee Castle's success in the US Senate race.

In Colorodo, that is more good news for Republicans. With Frazier out of the US Senate race, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton has the Republican field to herself and she's raising lots of money for the GE. She's also campaigning at the grass roots to stick her name back out to people, as she hasn't been in office since 2006. The Democratic primary also helps Norton in this race, as it is likely to get nasty. Ryan Frazier is a moderate Republican, espeically environmentally. I think Frazier could play well in Colo-7 against Perlmutter. That race, with Frazier in, is definately a pick up opportunity for the RCC in 2010.

Posted by: reason5 | October 16, 2009 10:19 AM | Report abuse

I think this is a good strategy for Reid. Especially if a Republican primary will take place between Lowden & Tarkanian. Nevada see's in the national media what Reid is doing in Washington, not what he's doing for Nevada. This is a way to for Reid to be able to say "this is what I'm doing in the US for you, the people of Nevada!" Reid can define himself in a positive light to try and get his ratings up before the negative ads flow. This is a very smart strategy for Reid, who will not face a primary.

I do think Senator Lincoln is very vulnerable. The Republican will tie her to big spending & Obama, who is very unpopular in Arkansas. Lincoln better be a fundraising machine, because if not she is going to be in big trouble. I still wouldn't be surprised to see Cornyn catch some big name Republican to run. Even if not, Lincoln is still in for a tough race.

Coakley is looking more and more automatic as the days go bye.

Biden & Castle is very close. I'm not so sure Biden won't bow out and stay in the Attorney General's office. That would be a smart move for him and a guaranteed avenue to stay in politics, as he would win reelection big. That would about guarantee Castle's success in the US Senate race.

In Colorodo, that is more good news for Republicans. With Frazier out of the US Senate race, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton has the Republican field to herself and she's raising lots of money for the GE. She's also campaigning at the grass roots to stick her name back out to people, as she hasn't been in office since 2006. The Democratic primary also helps Norton in this race, as it is likely to get nasty. Ryan Frazier is a moderate Republican, espeically environmentally. I think Frazier could play well in Colo-7 against Perlmutter. That race, with Frazier in, is definately a pick up opportunity for the RCC in 2010.

Posted by: reason5 | October 16, 2009 10:18 AM | Report abuse

Noticed the link on Jennifer Brunner's primary challenge to Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher in the Ohio Democratic primary for the open Senate seat with Voinovich retiring. Brunner's abysmal fund-raising and fact she is the lesser-known candidate means she is going to get squashed by Fisher if she stays in. Her career would be better-served by seeking reelection to her current office. Her run for the Senate is career suicide.

The sooner Brunner withdraws, the more Democrats can coalesce around a candidate with a good shot at winning. The fact that Portman has outraised Fisher substantially is a bit concerning, though the Ohio environment remains awful for Republicans. There is still widespread antipathy and resentment toward the Republicans for the disastrous Taft years when Republicans controlled all statewide offices and both chambers of the State Legislature. Portman is a severely flawed candidate, so his fundraising advantage may prove insufficient to overcome his obvious negatives.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 10:18 AM | Report abuse

Nice to see Obama visiting GHWB; the last decent republican president or republican presidential candidate worth voting for. GHWB represents what used to be good about the republican party.

Posted by: jasperanselm | October 16, 2009 10:14 AM | Report abuse

The demographic that mattered last time (Obama for President) was said to be the mobilization of the service workers unions (perhaps a euphemism for hispaninc voters) . I'm guessing the twist this time will be the relative depth of the anger of the unemployed and those upside down on their mortgages. Last I checked Clark County had just under 80,000 homes in default or already foreclosed, with no end in sight. wow.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 10:11 AM | Report abuse

Mark: I knew it was a camera angle trick. I guess I'm such a stuffed shirt in here most of the time that I should put sarcasm tags on my posts when I'm not being serious. :)

Jake, I'm not sure there's much point to arguing about an alleged growth in registered voters. The only voter count that really matters happens on election day. Until then, it's all speculation or marketing.

Posted by: Gallenod | October 16, 2009 10:01 AM | Report abuse

Is the Reid campaign LYING about Nevada's demographics as cover for clear desparation?

"But it's difficult to chart exactly what has happened since then and everyone is waiting for the census next year. But we're not working from nothing, either. There are indices that show the decline, including the horrible foreclosure rate. For instance, school enrollments have dropped sharply. Even in Lyon County, the state's fastest growing county, they were down. No one can remember the last time school enrollments declined in the state. U-Haul recently reported data indicating it helped move 1.6 percent more people out of state than in so far this year. And scholars have said for years that the supposed migration of businesses from California to Nevada is imaginary: www.newsreview.com/chico/content?oid"

Posted by: DennisCMyers | October 13, 2009 6:52 PM

(prior Reid thread)

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 9:58 AM | Report abuse

BUBBA AND THE BOSS FOR JERSEY JON?

Will WJC be accompanied by Bruce Springsteen in a last-chance power drive for Corzine? Will the Boss finally school Chris Christie, a fawning Springsteen fan (see recent NYT article), on the real meaning of his music, and why Christie looks like a hypocrite by embracing Bruce's catalog?

And will Bubba ever acknowledge that the seeds of the "vast right-wing conspiracy" may have been planted, unbeknownst to him, on HIS watch? Consider this:

***

Congress: "First, Do No Harm." Take Down the Bush-Cheney Era "Torture Matrix."

SILENT, HARMFUL MICROWAVE AND LASER DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS DEPLOYED AGAINST AMERICAN CITIZENS BY MULTI-AGENCY FED PROGRAM

• Physical and Neurological Impairment Under the Cover of Telecommunications (cell tower installations), "Less-Lethal" Military/Law Enforcement Weaponry

A federal-local multi-agency coordinated action program -- an ongoing legacy of the Bush-Cheney years -- is committing a quiet genocide on thousands of unjustly targeted Americans...

...via physiologically damaging and degrading microwave/laser weaponry; covert financial exploitation; and a grassroots vigilante army fronted by community policing, town watch and anti-terrorism units who use covertly placed warrantless GPS devices and cell phones to stalk their targets...

... a GRASSROOTS GESTAPO protected by federal and local law enforcement who know all about it...

...a domestic "torture matrix" hiding in plain sight, unreported by a complacent, manipulated mainstream media, unquestioned by naive and apparently misinformed Obama officials.

PRESIDENT OBAMA:

BAN the use of microwave and laser weaponry against the American people; and

BAN the warrantless GPS/cell phone tracking of U.S. citizens -- the electronic backbone of a GRASSROOTS GESTAPO now operating on your watch.

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

OR (if link is corrupted / disabled):

http://NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: "GESTAPO USA"

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 16, 2009 9:58 AM | Report abuse

Gallenod and mark_in_austin:

I think that the photographer, Brendan Hoffman, is the same one who did that to GWB.

Does anyone else want to argue about Nevada's population growth being so rapid that 30 percent of the state's voters are new residents since Reid was last on the ballot in 2004?

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 9:50 AM | Report abuse

mark: don't you find it interesting that many of the best senators come from small states, whereas many of the senate's biggest clowns and show ponies come from big states?

My home state of RI,despite its overall culture of political corruption, has always had good to legendary senators (Green, Pell, Pastore, Chafee, etc). The current Sens Reed and Whitehouse are typical.

Posted by: koolkat_1960 | October 16, 2009 9:35 AM | Report abuse

Say What? (Part 2)
Rush Limbaugh said his sacking was an example of the political clout wielded by President Barack Obama's administration.

"What is happening to the National Football League...has already happened to Wall Street, has already happened to the automobile business."

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 9:33 AM | Report abuse

WaPo technical staff:

Please update the "Fix Picks". There is no link, yet, for "Bubba".

Gallenrod, I think it was too clever photography - I believe the camera angle plays over the underside of the Capitol dome.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 9:15 AM | Report abuse

Getting up early doesn't make you a better person.

Posted by: timscanlon | October 16, 2009 9:12 AM | Report abuse

Interesting picture of Reid. Did some DaVinci photoshop in that halo or does that ring just float over his head all the time?

At some point I'd hope we see more willingness within both parties to challenge incumbents in primaries, particularly ones who've been around maybe slightly longer than useful. Kentucky is a good example; West Virginia is another.

Unfortunately, the Senate is the closest thing to "employment for life" any politician can aspire to. Kudos to Kit Bond for retiring this year while he's still young enough to enjoy some retirement.

Maybe we could take a cue from the Vatican and make 80 the limit for running for public office and holding judicial appointments?

Posted by: Gallenod | October 16, 2009 8:07 AM | Report abuse

Gracious footnote by the Prez in LA.

Reid is dealing with so many new voters, as CC reports, that for them he is effectively a "new" candidate. The early spending on biography ads makes perfect sense.

Castle is a good Rep. and his CD is the entire state. He is a fine candidate for the Senate. I assume BB would be a good candidate as well from what I have read, and it is a luxury for the teeny state to have good choices.

Local news: BHO is participating in a forum with GHWB
at Texas A&M today.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 7:08 AM | Report abuse

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