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Senate Republicans buy TV time in CA, WA and WI

1. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has reserved more than $2.7 million in television time in California, Wisconsin and Washington, according to sources familiar with the ad buy, a signal of their commitment to expanding the playing field this fall as they seek to claw their way back to majority status.

The NRSC has bought $1.75 million worth of air time in California as well as $515,000 in Washington and $470,000 in Wisconsin, expenditures to that amount to 1,000 points of statewide TV in the latter two states and a 1,000 points of television in Los Angeles in the Golden State. (A 1,000 points of television means that the average viewer will see a given ad 10 times in a week.)

All three races feature Democratic incumbents in various stages of vulnerability. Of the trio, California Sen. Barbara Boxer is regarded as the most potentially vulnerable by political handicappers given former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina's personal wealth and the incumbent's sagging poll ratings.

Republicans have also touted their recruits against Washington Sen. Patty Murray and Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold and polling shows both races as possible upsets although the incumbents are well funded and have a proven ability to win tight races.

(In other NRSC news, well regarded operative Brian Jones is being brought on to help with the communications strategy for the California, Nevada and Washington races. Jones, a former communications director at the Republican National Committee, currently works for Mercury Public Affairs in Sacramento.)

While reserving air time is not the same as spending money on the races -- the committee can still cancel the ad buy right up until it goes on the air -- Senate Republican sources insist that they plan to spend in all three states. At the end of June the NRSC had $19.7 million in the bank while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed $21.6 million on hand.

Signaling their intentions so early and in three of the states considered the longer shots for the NRSC in this cycle is designed to force the hand of the DSCC. Will they match these buys? (Boxer, Murray and Feingold would certainly like to see that.) Will the DSCC go after their own pickup opportunities by placing time in places like Missouri, Kentucky and Ohio?

With upwards of 15 races considered potentially competitive, neither Senate committee will have the money to fully fund each one. Picking the right races to fund then is more important than ever before. The NRSC has laid down its markers; let's see if (and when) the DSCC responds.

2. Voters are voting in Oklahoma today where the marquee races are the Republican and Democratic primaries for governor.

In the Republican primary, frontrunner Rep. Mary Fallin is facing off against state Sen. Randy Brogdon, rancher/businessman Robert Hubbard and retired businessman Roger Jackson. On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson faces Lt. Gov. Jari Askins.

A Sooner poll released over the weekend showed Fallin leading Brogdon 56 percent to 18 percent while Edmonson bested Askins 49 percent to 33 percent.

One of the key places to watch tonight will be Fallin's stronghold of Oklahoma County; watch to see how big she runs up her margin there. Tulsa County -- Brogdon's home base and also home to the state's second-largest city -- will also be key. In the 2008 presidential race, Tulsa County provided about 254,000 votes compared to Oklahoma County's 279,000.

The other big race is in the 5th district where seven Republicans are facing off in the Republican primary for Fallin's seat. (Two candidates are running on the Democratic side.) An early July Sooner poll showed former state Representative and 2006 candidate Kevin Calvey, who has been endorsed by the Club for Growth, leading with 20 percent while his nearest opponents -- professor James Lankford and state Rep. Mike Thompson -- garnered 14 and 12 percent, respectively. (Worth noting: a large number of voters -- 38 percent -- remained undecided.)

Again, Oklahoma County will be key; whoever wins the county, which comprises about 90 percent of the vote in the heavily Republican district, will have a major leg up. With such a crowded field, a runoff is likely; the top two vote-getters would face off on
Aug. 24 if no candidate exceeds 50 percent of the vote today.

3. The Virginia-based Americans for Job Security is up with a new TV ad in the Colorado Senate tying former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) to President Barack Obama and Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and slamming her for her record on taxes and spending.

"Norton pushed the largest tax hike in Colorado history," the narrator of the 30-second spot says, referring to a controversial ballot initiative named Referendum C that narrowly passed in 2005. "As a regulator, she managed a multi-million dollar surge in government spending," the narrator continues.

AJS, a 501(c)(4) group, is spending $585,000 on the ad buy. In April, the group spent $400,000 on a TV ad urging voters to call Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck, who is running against Norton in the Aug. 10 primary, and tell him to "keep fighting for taxpayers who've had it with big government spending and debt."

The last week has been the most contentious in the race, with both candidates trading barbs over gender and the influence of the Tea Party movement in the state. The momentum had been on Buck's side, but it's unclear just yet whether his recent gaffes will give voters pause. (Mail ballots went out to voters last week.)

Democrats have a primary of their own between appointed Sen. Michael Bennet and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Bennet is considered the favorite.

4. Minnesota Republican governor candidate Tom Emmer raised less than $800,000 in the first six-plus months of 2010, while Democratic-Farmer-Labor endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher collected about $1 million.

Fundraising reports were due in the race on Monday, and the endorsed candidates of both major parties should be at a strong disadvantage in the money chase thanks to the presence of self-funding Democrats Matt Entenza and former Sen. Mark Dayton.

Emmer had less than $300,000 cash on hand with about 100 days left in the campaign; Kelliher had about $385,000.

Meanwhile, Entenza raised $360,000 but loaned himself roughly $3.5 million in the first six months of the year, personal donations that allowed him to spend $3.9 million -- most of it on television ads. Dayton likely spent millions of his own money on the race too although he didn't release fundraising totals Monday.

Emmer's number is particularly troubling for him, given that he has the Aug. 10 GOP primary largely to himself and has been his party's de facto nominee for several months. He's got less money than Kelliher even though he hasn't run any TV ads.

The state legislator's saving grace could be the fact that Democrats face a contested and expensive primary in which Dayton and Entenza will likely force Kelliher to spend every penny she can raise. Of course, if Dayton or Entenza come out of that primary, their self-funding ability should help them leapfrog Emmer immediately. Dayton currently leads the Democratic field in the polls.

The financial strength of Dayton and Entenza was again on display Monday when they each released new ads.

5. Matt Zabel, longtime chief of staff to Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), is leaving his post to take a job as vice president of government affairs for Target.

"Matt has helped me build a great Senate operation from the ground up," said Thune. "I'm grateful for his hard work and knowledge and love of South Dakota, and I wish him all the best."

Zabel's move comes amid speculation that Thune is considering a run for president but, according to sources briefed on the move, there is no large meaning to be drawn from the departure.

Prior to signing on with Thune, Zabel worked as a deputy associate attorney general for the Justice Department and as an adjunct law professor at George Mason Law School.

Ryan Nelson, a longtime Thune confidant and currently state director, will serve as acting chief of staff until a long term replacement is found. Justin Brasell, a well-regarded campaign operative, is managing Thune's re--election race -- although he has no Democratic opponent -- while Kyle Downey remains as communications director.

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake

By Chris Cillizza  |  July 27, 2010; 7:18 AM ET
Categories:  Morning Fix  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: First families of the 50 states (continued)
Next: Can Democrats win on the Disclose Act?

Comments

You're what, about twelve years old?

Posted by: Noacoler | July 27, 2010 3:18 PM


If so, she's interested.

Posted by: Dead_and_Barryd | July 27, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

I hear that commercial is in heavy rotation on the Bunker Channel.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | July 27, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

NeoCom Statist Destructionist Party

==

You're what, about twelve years old?

Posted by: Noacoler | July 27, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

The best commercial out there is the one with the children and the pledge that highlights The trickle up poverty of Barrack Obama and today’s NeoCom Statist Destructionist Party and the reason that people with a conscience weep for our children. (note: children in the traditional definition, not the new Dear Father-child dependent relationship of today's liberals with O and the government).

Children: I pledge allegiance to America’s debt, and to the Chinese government that lends us money. And to the interest, for which we pay, compoundable, with higher taxes and lower pay until the day we die.

Posted by: leapin | July 27, 2010 2:32 PM | Report abuse

Republican foreign policy: re-occupy crusader castles in the Levant.

Posted by: shrink2 | July 27, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

"You could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion or is it a nationality, way of life or cult, whatever you want to call it." NYT

==

And to think we euthanize cats and dogs but this guy gets to go on living. That's just wrong.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 27, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

"Tennessee’s lieutenant governor, Ron Ramsey...hopes to win the Republican nomination for governor in a primary next month with support from Tea Party activists, was asked by a constituent this month to explain his position on the “threat that’s invading our country from the Muslims.” As Jeff Woods of The Nashville Scene reported, a tape of the exchange posted online shows the lieutenant governor responding, “I’m all about freedom of religion,” before casting doubt on Islam’s credentials as a religion by saying:

"You could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion or is it a nationality, way of life or cult, whatever you want to call it." NYT

A cult? How about a lifestyle choice? Bwwwwaaaaahahaahahahahahahaha.

Posted by: shrink2 | July 27, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Maybe we could have a series of columns about the wardrobes of each of the exciting Republican presidential hopefuls. A slideshow of Mitt Romney's suits and ties would be just riveting. Tim Pawlenty's haberdasher could weigh in on Obama's socialist tendencies.

And I'm still waiting to hear more about John Thune's rakish good looks.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 27, 2010 1:06 PM | Report abuse

Let me be clear:


Obama's strategy WAS to jam through health care - and leave enough time between the jam-through and the election - that everyone would forget about the health care they didn't want - and just go back to the democrats.

Like the voters are stupid.


How's that wokring for you now?

How is that for change?

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 27, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

Obungler recovery update:

Americans' confidence in the economy eroded further in July amid worries about a job market that has proven stubbornly stagnant. The report raised concerns about the overall economy and the back-to-school season.

Posted by: Dead_and_Barryd | July 27, 2010 12:26 PM | Report abuse

It makes sense for the Republicans to focus on Washington State and Wisconsin - rather than California.


California is a massive media market - and very expensive.


Wisconsin looks like an outside pick-up for the Republicans - it is a traditional swing state - and a little money can go far because of the relatively inexpensive media markets.

The bottom line is this: although the combination of states which are up this year in the Senate at first appear to favor the democrats,

Those States really do not play to any strengths that Obama's people may have.

Even in Illinois, Obama is stuck with a relatively weak candidate whose family bank just went under - and who looks more like young kid than an elder Statesman who can guide the economy back.

In the year of voters looking to who is going to guide the economy - a person from a failed bank is just a complete disaster as a candidate.

Meanwhile, Obama appears to have adopted A ROSE GARDEN STRATEGY - people don't want to see him on the campaign trail - so he is stuck making statements from the ROSE GARDEN JUST LIKE JIMMY CARTER.

The commentators are right - more speeches from Obama are NOT going to help the democrats - just being seen with Obama is a RISK - sure in a few places line Illinois and Pennsylvania they will take him - but in most States the democrats do not want to be seen with Obama.

Obviously, Obama's reaction is to go on vacation - because it implies that he is doing something on his schedule - when the democrats don't want him around.

But now Obama is seen as going on WAY too many vacations - and Drudge is sure to run another picture of Obama playing golf in the next few weeks.


Obama's biggest problem is Obama - so there isn't much to say about what he can do or say to get himself out of the hole - the hole which Obama dug for HIMSELF - a hole which everyone in the world last winter TOLD him not to go into -

Obama had a best chance in the world right after Scott Brown was elected - to drop health care and start LISTENING TO THE PEOPLE.

A combination of Arrogance and Stupidity is really bad.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 27, 2010 12:04 PM | Report abuse

Bsimon, I don't think Steele is a political genius, but he really seems to be the only person in a leadership position who has shown any interest in reaching out to minorities.

There's actually a piece on slate.com on how the best Hispanic candidates are Republican. Marco Rubio, Susanna Martinez are examples. I'm not sure how successful this will be. Each election cycle Republicans manage to round up a bunch of black candidates, but they all fail badly.

http://www.slate.com/id/2261459

I don't think Hispanics are necessarily lost to Republicans forever, but the GOP really needs to be alarmed. That group went 2-1 for Obama and I think McCain is actually a Republican who is relatively attractive to Hispanics.

But as the Breitbart debacle has demonstrated, the GOP will continue to appeal to the racist elements of the base. This is a major part of their strategy, but it's also a strategy that have driven away blacks and is driving away Hispanics. (remember they actually voted FOR Bush in 2004)

Posted by: DDAWD | July 27, 2010 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Gallenrod

Interesting that you talk of totalitarian.


Actually the smear campaign against the Tea Party is a totalitarian tactic.


This smear campaign is filled with false charges of racism - a search for "evil" - the criminals who are racist.

If they find someone, they vilify that person in the media.

This smear campaign has sexual slurs - and the leaders are INTENTIONALLY trying to whip up the masses for electorial purposes. The objective for the leaders is not to stop racism, or racial progress - the objective is to "energize" the masses and maintain their power base.

The whole thing is totalitarian.

It is a flawed strategy, and it will not work well in the midterms for reasons outlined earlier.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 27, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Steele is a lazy poseur. The GOP was willing to take advantage of his race providing them with a "game-change" narrative. That narrative hasn't caught on and Steele has not been up to the basics of his job.

Shrink, thanks for mentioning the Oregon race. We're all watching to see if Dudley can become governor. here is an edited text from another Oregonian article:

"Chris Dudley has more money and better political advisers than virtually every other Oregon candidate running for office, yet he still broke a basic rule of campaigning: Don't remind people why they shouldn't vote for you.

Dudley skipped an important debate last week because of a long-planned family vacation -- or so he told organizers when he graciously declined the invitation. My family already bought tickets, he said. Can't disappoint the wife, he said. His explanation made him sound appealingly ordinary, like any other guy trying to do right by his family during summer.

Turned out his sacred family vacation was in Aspen, Colorado, timed around the meeting calendar of the Republican Governors Association, as The Oregonian's Jeff Mapes reported over the weekend. Dudley's campaign spokesman took the fall and apologized for being unclear. The story faded quickly. Yet the Aspen trip could come back to haunt Dudley for reasons that are specific to the weak spots in his biography:

He's a wealthy former basketball player and political unknown who has voted only sporadically and never run for public office. With this resume, it is uniquely foolish for Dudley to 1) fib, 2) miss the traditional kickoff debate of the governor's race, or 3) choose national hobnobbing over Oregon handshaking.

Also, it's off-putting in a bad economy for a rich candidate to appear rather casual about his job hunt. Many Oregon voters are either clinging to their jobs or pounding the pavement looking for work, and Dudley dodges a debate (essentially a job interview) without being forthright about the reasons why?

Not scandalous, but not statesmanlike, either.

Neither was sending a video crew to the event, trying to collect some video ammunition against the guy who showed up.

Let the record show that Dudley's Democratic opponent, former Gov. John Kitzhaber, also lives comfortably and failed to vote in several recent elections. But Kitzhaber has an entirely different set of strengths and weaknesses. He's a known quantity with decades of public service in Oregon, and he has a reputation for telling the truth when no one wants to hear it.

From Kitzhaber, a fib and a no-show would be out of character. From Dudley, they add detail to an unfamiliar character.

The best leaders are honest with themselves, which allows them to be honest with other people."

McInnis, Kirk, Dudley -- it looks like a trend.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | July 27, 2010 11:12 AM | Report abuse

The Mormon Church has a goal of putting a Mormon in the White House. To do that, Calif must be secured and to that end, the Church will stop at nothing and no expense. $90 Million of Whitman's money? Not likely. To believe that, she would have to reveal her finances and that will never happen. The DNC has to realize they have to spend money in California now for Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer.

Posted by: pkbishop1 | July 27, 2010 11:11 AM | Report abuse

The Heritage Foundation on the Administration's stunning admission of economic and fiscal failure.

It is established practice in Washington that if you have to release bad news, it is best to do it on a Friday … the later in the day the better. So not only did the White House schedule the publication of the “Mid-Session Budget Review” for last Friday, but they then released it three hours late to ensure that as few reporters as possible were left in the nation’s capital to cover it. But Heritage’s dedicated budget team patiently waited the Obama administration out, and their analysis shows that this year’s mid-session review is nothing short of a complete admission of failure of the White House’s economic policies.

When President Obama sold his $862 billion economic stimulus to the American people, he promised that, if enacted, it would prevent unemployment from ever rising above 8%. With unemployment currently at 9.5%, the American people are now well aware that the President’s stimulus has been a complete failure. But Friday’s report was the first time this Administration was forced to admit just how long Americans will have to suffer for their failed economic policies. According to Friday’s report, the Obama administration now projects that unemployment will average 9% throughout all of next year and 8.1% throughout 2012.

And if that news wasn’t bad enough, the report pegs this year’s budget deficit at $1.471 trillion, or 10% of the entire U.S. economy. In nominal dollars, it’s the largest deficit in American history; and as a percentage of the economy, it’s the largest deficit since World War II. To pay for that $1.471 trillion hole, our government will borrow 41 cents of every dollar it spends. And the Obama Administration concedes that these large deficits are here to stay. It projects another $1.42 trillion deficit in 2011, which is $150 billion worse than previously predicted. Looking ahead, the President’s budget includes deficits that never fall below $698 billion and leaves our children with $18.5 trillion in debt by 2020. And all this assumes the economy will grow 4% from 2012-2014. The only times the economy performed that well in the past thirty years was from 1997-2000 and from 1983-1985.

Posted by: leapin | July 27, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

The two guys who actually look alike are Dudley from BP and the wikileaks guy - I think they are the SAME person, with a little make-up.


The whole thing is a conspiracy ???

Why don't they use a different actor ??? JUST so you will THINK that they are two different people, and say to yourself that there is no way it is a conspiracy.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 27, 2010 11:08 AM | Report abuse

1. Of course the NRSC is spending in Wisconsin & Washington. In California, I'm surprised their spending there as Fiorina has the money to spend against Boxer herself. Johnson in Wisconsin & Rossi in Washington will be very competitive, but will likely need the help of the NRSC. Republicans have a cash advantage overall, even though the Democrats have about $4 million ahead cash on hand. In North Carolina, Ohio, Connecticut & California Democrats will have to spend heavily for their candidate to compete closely. Boxer is well funded and well known, but she's not overly liked and she's running against Fiorina, an opponent with lots of money. Republicans have a money advantage overall.

3. Buck vs. Norton & Bennett vs. Ramanoff is kind of like the final four. They all have legite chances to win. If there is a big underdog, it's Ramanoff. I think Buck vs. Norton will be very close until the very end. It's an even keel race. My prediction is that Bennett & Buck have the advantages in these races right now.

4. It's surprising that Emmer isn't racking up the cash. As the de facto R nominee, he should be. The Democrats are spending to tear one another down, and that's great for Emmer. But the winner of the D nomination is going to have plenty of money to tear Emmer down as well. He had better get to raising cash, b/c the D nominee is likely to be Mark Dayton. Dayton is a self funder who has plenty of cash. Dayton also has a senate record that can be exposed, but Emmer needs cash to do it.

5. Sen. Thune is in a great spot right now. He is up for reelection with no democratic opponent and millions in the bank. Thune can sit back and run for President if he chooses without any risk to his political career in SD. He's in the spot of every politicians dream.

Posted by: reason5 | July 27, 2010 11:07 AM | Report abuse

ALL


Do you really think you are going to change what will happen in November by complaining about what Chris is reporting ???

It is happening out there - where Chris reports it or not.

And for Obama, the situation is much, much worse than the polls indicate. People do not want to tell the strangers who call for the polls what they really think about Obama.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 27, 2010 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Oops, sorry, just realized that I misspelled ALLEN Drury's name.

And I picked that particular review because it isn't the usual, "loved this page-turner by a Pulitzer Prize author" review. Drury, who worked close to the Senate for much of his early career, did not reflect the conventional political environment of his day in either novel.

And yet they sold like hotcakes, illustrating the power of a well-told story over reality.

Posted by: Gallenod | July 27, 2010 10:59 AM | Report abuse

ddawd writes
"Steele's main goal as the head of the RNC was to become more inclusive to minorities"

Keep in mind Steele won the job right after the first black president was elected & the GOP lost big among every minority group. It doesn't take a strategic genius to come up with "we have to do better among minorities."

Posted by: bsimon1 | July 27, 2010 10:59 AM | Report abuse

Shrink, hopefully people confuse him with the new BP CEO.

Steele strikes me as someone who is probably a good political strategist, but doesn't have any party support. Say like Norv Turner when he was the Redskins coach. Widely regarded as a great offensive mind, but he just never had the team behind him.

Steele's main goal as the head of the RNC was to become more inclusive to minorities. Keep all the same policies, but cut out the racism. The party simply was not willing to take that step. Yeah, Steele has had some gaffes and some issues with money allocation, but I don't think those are nearly the main reasons for his leadership issues.

Posted by: DDAWD | July 27, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Well, both sides are accusing the other of trying to "wreck" the economy. And both parties have contributed to the current structural (somewhat permanent elements) deficits either through spending or tax cuts.

The Democrats aren't trying to generate emotion; they're trying, most of the time, to make rational appeals.

The Republicans are less concerned with debate and more engaged in storytelling.

People like being told stories more than they like being lectured to, which tends to favor the Republican approach.

The electorate likes people with either a compelling personal story or a compelling story to tell. Thus the success of politicians like Obama, McCain, Reagan, Kennedy (John and Edward), Eisenhower, etc.

It's also worked for McCarthy, Nixon, Hitler, and Mao.

Storytelling has helped both good people and totalitarian despots rise to prominance and power far more often than mere presentation of facts. Fortunately, truth eventually wins out over time as long as there are enough people willing to accept and act on it.

So far, at least. If you want to see the novelization of this, go find two novels by Alan Drury from the '70s: "Come Ninevah, Come Tyre," and "The Promise of Joy." They are two stories of alternate reality that occur simultaneously in the '70s and are the last two books in Drury's Advise and Consent series.

If you aren't inclined to read them, you can find a review comparing both here:

http://adamcadre.ac/calendar/11812.html

If nothing else, they're good political stories. :)

Posted by: Gallenod | July 27, 2010 10:45 AM | Report abuse

Surprised the Fix did not run out this Republican Rising! item...

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/07/dudley_widens_fundraising_lead.html

Posted by: shrink2 | July 27, 2010 10:37 AM | Report abuse

The real top secret of "Top Secret America"...

REGIONAL FUSION CENTER SHADOW GOV'T USES WAR ON TERROR AS PRETEXT FOR COVERT GENOCIDAL PURGE: VETERAN JOURNALIST

All of those cell towers you see all over America are NOT all for phone calls.

Some of them are TORTURE TOWERS — a nationwide microwave/laser radio frequency “directed energy" weapon system that is being used by operatives of the multi-agency Homeland Security-run “fusion center” network to silently torture, impair, and physically and neurologically degrade the functioning and well-being of extrajudicially, unjustly ‘”targeted” citizens...

...who are subject to government-enabled financial sabotage and community watch "gang stalking," home intrusions, vandalism and other acts of police-tolerated domestic terrorism.

The criminal use of a precision-targeted government weapon system to attack and impair U.S. citizens is being done WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE AND CONSENT OF CONGRESS or high state officials.

EXHIBIT A: U.S. Patent No. 7629918, held by Raytheon Corp., for the "Multi-functional Microwave Laser Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon System."

Veteran mainstream media journalist Vic Livingston reports:

http://nowpublic.com/world/u-s-silently-tortures-americans-cell-tower-microwaves
http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america OR http://NowPublic.com/scrivener (lede articles and links therein)

Posted by: scrivener50 | July 27, 2010 10:29 AM | Report abuse

Does the satisfaction outweigh the pain?
Never.

Posted by: shrink2 | July 27, 2010 10:21 AM | Report abuse

shrink, WE were correct. Does the satisfaction outweigh the pain? One of the eternal questions, I suppose.

Admission: I was the one who thought Steele would be great for the RNC.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | July 27, 2010 10:16 AM | Report abuse

ooops, Emanuel

Posted by: shrink2 | July 27, 2010 10:06 AM | Report abuse

You know how I feel about that *chuckle*.
At one point someone here said Dean had to go because he had cultivated a base of power within the party that was independent of the Obama/Emmanuel crew. Doesn't seem like such a bad idea anymore. Forcing everyone onto the same page isn't a bad idea for small parties, tyrannical parties and parties led by people who never make mistakes *chuckle*.

Posted by: shrink2 | July 27, 2010 10:05 AM | Report abuse

Ddawd, Kaine makes Dean look like a genius, b/c Dean had the ability to stay on message and sell it.

Kaine may be BHO's biggest purely political blunder.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | July 27, 2010 9:51 AM | Report abuse

Gallenod, I agree. I really don't understand how Democrats are having such trouble generating emotion. There are so many non-controversial things that Republicans are obstructing. Even if Dems don't want to fight over things like public option or cap and trade, they can surely make it clear who is voting to extend unemployment, who has been supporting fin reg, who is trying to pass jobs bills. These are things that are overwhelmingly supported by Americans. Yeah, people will tend to blame Dems since they have the majorities, but I don't think Americans are too dumb to understand the filibuster.

And they need to stop worrying about deficits. The only people who say they care about deficits are those who would never vote for Dems anyways. Deficits have never been an important issue and they won't be in this election. No one really cares about deficits. That's why you have the so-called deficit hawks pushing for tax cuts.

But Dems need to show the anger that Republicans are showing. Republicans are trying to wreck the economy. Dems need to get that message across. People will listen. They just need to try.

Posted by: DDAWD | July 27, 2010 9:36 AM | Report abuse

4) DFL donors are allegedly keeping their powder dry until after the primary - two weeks from today. Whomever is the winner will see a strong influx of cash beginning on Aug 11. Emmer, meanwhile, is gaffe prone. But he has an added advantage, in...

5) The Fix writes " Matt Zabel, longtime chief of staff to Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), is leaving his post to take a job as vice president of government affairs for Target." Coincidentally - or perhpas not - Target is one of the funding sources for MN Forward, a group that has already begun buying ad time promoting Tom Emmer (R) for Gov of Minnesota.


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Posted by: shanchuhuiyi | July 27, 2010 9:10 AM | Report abuse

DDAWD: Republicans are shadow-boxing with the Democrats. They're trying to provoke a reaction (or non-reaction) to guage the state of mind of the various Democratic campaign operations. They will continue to make these feints and jabs until they get a sense of how much they can dictate the campaign tempo.

If the Democrats don't stay patient and disciplined they will be drawn into permanent reaction mode and get outmanuevered all the way to November. If they don't want to be the minority party again in three years they need to band together, find a consistent, believable message, and engage the Republicans head on in a pitched battle for public opinion.

Unfortunately, Republicans seem to play that game better for two reasons:

1. They are less diverse and have an easier time banding together.

2. They are in the minority, and nothing seems to focus the political mind like the prospect of regaining power.

The short version is that Republicans appear angry and outraged and Democrats appear nervous and exasperated. To that portion of the electorate that doesn't bother to study root causes and just votes for the stronger personality, which of the two is more likely to attract uncommitted voters looking for someone who represents their unhappiness with the economy, immigration, national security, etc.?

Posted by: Gallenod | July 27, 2010 9:06 AM | Report abuse

Agreed on CA. If you're going to have a self-funding candidate in the nation's most expensive media state, reserving TV time there is either a potentially catastrophic blunder or a bluff. I'd go with bluff, unless Michael Steele is somehow calling shots now at the NRSC.

Posted by: 20009matt | July 27, 2010 9:02 AM | Report abuse

...Cris C. .. being chastised for covering the political news.. this is an unforgiving crowd..

Posted by: newbeeboy | July 27, 2010 8:59 AM | Report abuse

I really don't get ad buys in Cali. It's expensive as hell and the R candidate has her own money. I'd think Wisconsin would be a better investment. A seat is a seat. The only thing is Rs might enjoy the trophy of a California seat (like in Massachusetts) but that's a ridiculous way to form a strategy. Think about it. The cost of advertising in just the L.A. area is about 3.5 times the cost of advertising in all of Wisconsin.

I'd let Fiorina go it alone in Cali. Sagging popularity or not, California is still a long shot and an expensive state to campaign in. And given their overall weakness in Senate candidates, there's probably a lot more bang for the buck that could be had elsewhere.

Posted by: DDAWD | July 27, 2010 8:06 AM | Report abuse

Does NRSC funding in CA, WA, and WI leave them short in KY and MO? The funds are not needed by the OH R.

Do we not have news of D spending in CO b/c their numbers have not been published? If Buck beats Norton, I think either D would have a cheaper road. I saw part of a Buck-Norton debate, and cannot imagine his actually winning. But I have a limited imagination.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | July 27, 2010 7:44 AM | Report abuse

REPUBLICANS ON THE MARCH!

Political News & Analysis by Chris Cillizza


ho

hum

Posted by: margaretmeyers | July 27, 2010 7:30 AM | Report abuse

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