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David Paterson's political comeback?

40

That's the percentage of New York voters who approve of the job embattled Gov. David Paterson is doing in a new Quinnipiac University poll -- up 10 points on the question in just a month.

Aside from the uptick in his job approval numbers, the Q poll shows his personal favorability ratings rising as well. Back in August just 26 percent of New Yorkers had a favorable view of Paterson while 53 percent saw him in an unfavorable light. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, 38 percent viewed Paterson favorably while 44 percent regarded him unfavorably.

A Siena Research Institute survey released yesterday mirrored the Quinnipiac poll's results -- showing Paterson rebounding from the doldrums of the summer.

Why the bounce?

The most obvious theory is that Paterson had nowhere to go but up as he was drastically underperforming among even the most loyal Democrats in recent months.

And, Paterson has almost certainly helped himself with ads that began running in early November touting his accomplishments and framing his struggles as an attempt to always do what was right by the state.

Tracy Sefl, a consultant to Paterson's re-election race, attributed the gains to the governor's attempts to right the financial ship of state. "He's speaking plainly and bluntly about all of this, and these numbers show New Yorkers are increasingly receptive," added Sefl. "He's been up front about his candidacy in 2010. He is a runner, after all, and this race is a marathon."

To be clear, Paterson is still in a very bad place politically -- especially if state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo decides to enter the race. The Q poll showed Cuomo drubbing Paterson 60 percent to 23 percent, a margin largely unchanged from the 61 percent to 19 percent edge Cuomo held in late October.

The Paterson bounce -- such as it is -- could have two effects.

The more likely is that the governor's improving image provides him a graceful exit in 2010, allowing him to save some face politically while also bowing to the difficulties of a re-election race.

The less likely but no more interesting outcome is that if Paterson's numbers continue to improve, Cuomo, who has kept his own interest in the race close to the vest, reconsiders a primary challenge -- waiting for a more ripe opportunity. (Never forget that Cuomo's 2002 primary run against then state Comptroller Carl McCall badly damaged his image in the black community and there is a concern among some in Cuomo-world that challenging Paterson would pick that scab.)

The real winner in the latter scenario are Republicans who, polls suggest, have a very real chance of picking up the Empire State governorship if Cuomo blinks and Paterson stays the course.

By Chris Cillizza  |  December 15, 2009; 3:37 PM ET
Categories:  Most Important Number  
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Comments

I know Chris C is busy, as we all are, but it doesn't take but two minutes to scroll through the comments here and see who is trolling.

==

CC loves trolling.

It's only "name calling" he doesn't like.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 16, 2009 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Hi, Chris Cillizza: Love your comments; keep 'em coming. As former Crystal City Arl. resident (40+ yrs) now retired to NYS 23rd Cong. Dist., I deplore these lunatic right wing comments re: irrelevant subjects. My opinion: Paterson is doing the right thing, having inherited this budget mess. He's tops w/me. Obama's also trying, but should be more forceful w/GOP types. Where's LBJ's arm-twisting when O needs it? Lieberman's a nightmare!

Posted by: pkm3444 | December 16, 2009 7:27 AM | Report abuse

So much for last warning, eh?

I know Chris C is busy, as we all are, but it doesn't take but two minutes to scroll through the comments here and see who is trolling.

Posted by: DDAWD | December 16, 2009 4:54 AM | Report abuse

OH I just figured out how the terrorist trials were ON TOPIC - David Paterson went to High School in New York - AND they want to have the trials in New York


Also, New Yorkers don't want the trauma of having the trials in New York.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | December 15, 2009 11:53 PM | Report abuse

The raging leftist loon attack machine is preparing to shift into high gear. Watch the moonbats tomorrow led by the frothing stooges.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 11:09 PM | Report abuse

Politically speaking: you lie you die.

If we are lucky, this will turn out to be the best benefit of the www.

Anyone with a lot of money/political clout want to keep a dirty secret?

Your disaster lies for you.

Posted by: shrink2 | December 15, 2009 10:16 PM | Report abuse

Line by line to eliminate pork

hahahahahahahahahahaha

the cartoon party at work.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 10:04 PM | Report abuse

Is it wrong to jail these killers or just wrong to keep them somewhere warm.

==

Kind of ironic coming from a guy whose heating tab gets picked up by the state

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 10:03 PM | Report abuse

As though making jokes about the president being assassinated wasn't low enough, now you're making fun of a blind man.

Simply despicable.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Barry has now planned to siMply move gitmo to Illinois. What's the point? This guy is a disaster or a joke or both.

Is it wrong to jail these killers or just wrong to keep them somewhere warm.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Back ON TOPIC:

Gov. Paterson hit rock bottom after the third or fourth SNL skit on him wandering aimlessly in front of the camera -- call it a "sympathy" bounce -- he won't bounce any higher than a dead cat.

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 9:57 PM | Report abuse

The war wasn't about "oil".

==

Sure it was, what else could it have been about?

If the Bush administration had ANY indication that Iraq was able to defend itself do you really think we would have invaded? Get real.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 9:52 PM | Report abuse

The war wasn't about "oil".

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 9:48 PM | Report abuse

I'm not the one who has been banned here repeatedly.

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 9:46 PM | Report abuse

Three months longer than Bush without a terrorist attack on our oil.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 9:45 PM | Report abuse

I "care" snowbama : )

Now, why do you think he "gave it good to" me?!

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 9:44 PM | Report abuse

If you pass my stimulus package unemployment will not go above 8 percent.

Semester grade: F.

I have analyzed the afghan situation- march
never mind. I did it again- December

grade: F

delusional academic self grade: b plus

for what- record failure????

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 9:42 PM | Report abuse

Why do you even bother, zouk? Nobody cares what you post here, you are the most ignored person here. Day after day the same enraged sarcasm, and nobody cares. Why do you even bother?

Oh, of course, you have nothing else to do, how could I have forgotten that.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 9:37 PM | Report abuse

Al gore quotes scientist

Scientist denies it

poor al. Reduced to a cartoon.

Perhaps the Simpsons.

I believe all liberals are headed to a legacy of cartoons.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 9:30 PM | Report abuse

It is now clear that obimbo is effective at one thing- leading his kool aid drinking followers off the precipice. On health care, foreign policy, economics, energy, Barry leads the way to disaster, defeat, unemployment, surrender and defeat.

Dare the senators to follow him off the cliff of health care ruination? Proceed if you like standing in the unemployment line. Why not. It is the ultimate result of liberal policy.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 9:23 PM | Report abuse

GandT, tomorrow we'll tell the one about how true Red States suck the taxes from Blue States but talk a good game about small government.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | December 15, 2009 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Politically speaking: you lie you die.

==

Oh were it only true, there would not be a Republican left on the planet.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 9:18 PM | Report abuse

Al gore had emerged from his gaseous, bloated obscurity and revealed to the world that he is a total fraud and con man. Poor al. Once a loser........

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 9:13 PM | Report abuse

Historians can worry about Joe Lieberman or Paterson or the rest of the has-beens.

People who care about the future are watching intently, keeping score.
Recording everything.

What all of the charlatans have to remember is that there is no such thing as a secret deal. Corrupt compromise is corruption. WE don't really care about your friends, your family, your party, your race, your voting record...we do care about your integrity.

It is not because we are suddenly interested in honesty, we always were,
but now, dishonesty can not be hidden, nor spun into gold.

There is no way to exaggerate the importance of this development. In the past, making sausage meant lying, but that is really no longer possible. Politically speaking: you lie you die.

So now, who wants to run for office?
Retirements? Keep them coming.

Posted by: shrink2 | December 15, 2009 9:07 PM | Report abuse

8) real Americans come from small towns and can be identified by their pale skin, their bared (green) teeth, and the fact that they hate everyone not like them. They lose their authentic status if they finish high school, and become enemies of the state if they go to college.

Unless they get a degree in sports journalism or economics.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 9:04 PM | Report abuse

Hannity is showing a vid of obimbo promising to ban all earmarks.

Hahahahahahahahshahahahahahaha

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Me and everyone else room clearer.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 8:59 PM | Report abuse

7) Bad men from outside want to hurt us. The only people who could keep us safe was the Bush Administration and the really good Americans they created the huge national debt for.

Drink your cocoa and tomorrow we can draw Hitler's mustache on pictures of Obama.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | December 15, 2009 8:54 PM | Report abuse

Don't let the door hitcha, zouk

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 8:30 PM | Report abuse

Since the ped took over this blog, there is very little left of interest for anyone with even a semblance of intelligence.

Prattle on loser.

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 8:20 PM | Report abuse

Why margaret I'm surprised at you, you left off the most important one:

BUSH KEPT US SAFE

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 8:04 PM | Report abuse

Right Wing Fairy Tales, so listen up children.

1) Paterson's popularity rises as Obama's falls because there is only this > < much popularity for black people to share.

2) Wait, make that Paterson's popularity is rising because Tiger Woods' is falling. Anyway,it was unnatural to have Woods and Obama so popular at the same time. That unnatural popularity nexus was causing global warming. I think so. I say so.

3) It's important that the Right Wing WIN, no matter what it does to the country, because then the Democrat's LOSE and that makes us happy even if we get to continue to live in the country we wrecked. That's much better than Democrap Socialism.

4) Striving to be well educated is very suspicious. Better to be a male cheerleader at Yale than be an editor on the Harvard Law Review. Cheerleading shows character and editors think too much.

4) No matter how many times you sin, if you are saved your friends will embrace and support you. That's all that matters. We hate the sin and love the sinner. Unless he's a Democrat.

5) Don't listen to anyone who tries to tell you the Republicans caused this Recession. Jimmy Carter is to blame.

6) The sun will never shine on the Democrap Socialists again. We buried them in 2006, we buried them in 2008, and we will bury them again in 2010. You betcha.

Anyone else know any stories for the children?

Posted by: margaretmeyers | December 15, 2009 7:58 PM | Report abuse

"is said to be" is weaselish.

quotes, please.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 7:57 PM | Report abuse

I know we are going to talk and talk about this and the democrats are going to IGNORE THE CLEAR DANGERS.

==

Bibby-bibby a-scared of the bad mans?

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 7:45 PM | Report abuse

snowbama?

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 7:43 PM | Report abuse

How many obviously crazy people can a web log handle?

One, well its kind of like a mascot, but two? Well after awhile, people who are spending the little time they have looking for someone smart to say something get annoyed even scrolling past incoherent rants cum self-rightist rage and taunts for tat.


Posted by: shrink2 | December 15, 2009 7:25 PM | Report abuse

Someday the regular moonbat contributers on this blog are drowned out by intelligence and reason.

Then there are days like today.

What will your epitath say loon. You gave it good to jaked? Quite a feat loser.

Day after day. Hour after hour. Minute by minute. Void of content. Meet the fix and it's "regulars".

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 7:20 PM | Report abuse

I don't care if this is off-topic


Obama's "Gitmo North" decision has to be discussed.


Obama should not be HIDING on this decision - by releasing memos instead of making an actual White House announcement - OWN the decision Obama.


The important thing to remember here is CONTROL OF THE TERRORISTS IS GOING TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE COURTS.


ALSO remember that Obama's friend William Ayers was RELEASED by a court - not based on the merits of whether Ayers committed the crime, but on the basis of MISCONDUCT BY THE PROSECUTION.


ANY COURT IN THE US COULD INTERPRET INDEFINITE DETENTION AS MISCONDUCT.


ANY COURT COULD SAY THAT THE INTERROGATIONS HAVE BEEN MISCONDUCT.


Obama's decision is horrible - they are creating a legal nightmare.


First, Obama is doing this all by himself - WITHOUT CONGRESS - and Congress has already passed a law dealing with how the terrorists should be dealt with.


Obama KNOWS that the terrorist CAN GET OFF - his friend AYERS got off -


Then Ayers' group went on to the Brinks Truck Robbery in Nyack, NY and KILL AGAIN.

I know we are going to talk and talk about this and the democrats are going to IGNORE THE CLEAR DANGERS.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | December 15, 2009 7:11 PM | Report abuse

Guiliani is the wild-card -


If Guiliani stays out of the race, Cuomo is said to be reluctant to challenge a black sitting incumbent Governor of his own party.

However, if Guiliani jumps in, and Paterson is down in the polls, then Cuomo is said to be willing to jump in the race to save it for the democrats.

That is what is going on.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | December 15, 2009 7:03 PM | Report abuse

But it ain't gonna happen, ddawd, unless patterson's strength improves dramatically. his support is too weak and sporadic, and cuomo's is solid. Unless it really looks like he can compete -- if the R field against him is weak, for instance, always a possibility.

But he has some time to prove himself.

Posted by: drindl | December 15, 2009 6:48 PM | Report abuse

""The real winner in the latter scenario are Republicans "

LOL. it never stops. NY will not be electing a republican governor again anytime soon. You cannot even imagine what a shrunken and anemic entity the R party is here.

For the last caucasesin my county, 460 people showed up for Dems. 7 showed up for Rs. it's a local joke.

Posted by: drindl"

Well, if you look at it as Paterson as the nominee vs Cuomo as the nominee, the Republicans would end up relative winners if Paterson won. Not that Albany automatically goes red, but the GOP would have a fighting chance.

Posted by: DDAWD | December 15, 2009 6:41 PM | Report abuse

Unless Mr. Cillizza clarifies, name-calling is prohibited but on-topic "foolishness" is not.

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 6:37 PM | Report abuse

Gee, "name-calling" will get you banned but you post whatever illogical and off-the-wall nonsense you like and that's cool.

I'll take name-calling over this random foolishness any day.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 6:29 PM | Report abuse

As Paterson goes up, Obama goes down in the polls - that is a clear correlation - what does that tell you all you global warmists out there ???

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | December 15, 2009 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Isn't a precipice something you are about to tumble off, resulting in your death?

Posted by: snowbama | December 15, 2009 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Especially since the teabaggers won't let anyone with a chance of winning get the nomination.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 15, 2009 5:31 PM | Report abuse

"The real winner in the latter scenario are Republicans "

LOL. it never stops. NY will not be electing a republican governor again anytime soon. You cannot even imagine what a shrunken and anemic entity the R party is here.

For the last caucasesin my county, 460 people showed up for Dems. 7 showed up for Rs. it's a local joke.

Posted by: drindl | December 15, 2009 5:00 PM | Report abuse

Comeback? Too early to say.

Another alternative: support for Paterson is soft; a quick rise can be followed by a quick fall.

Posted by: bsimon1 | December 15, 2009 4:03 PM | Report abuse

It might be a result of the improving economy as well. Especially since Wall St. seems to be leading the pack. Paterson might be reaping the spoils of TARP.

Posted by: DDAWD | December 15, 2009 4:02 PM | Report abuse

WOO HOO!!!

Posted by: JakeD | December 15, 2009 3:57 PM | Report abuse

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