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The most important number in politics today

64

That's the percentage of Ohioans who call themselves either "somewhat" (37 percent) or "very" (27 percent) dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Buckeye State in a new Quinnipiac poll.

By contrast, roughly one in three (35 percent) say they are satisfied with the state of the state and just three percent of that group calling themselves "very" satisfied.

That dissatisfaction is trickling down ballot with Gov. Ted Strickland (D) now in a dead heat with former Rep. John Kasich (R) despite the fact that the GOP nominee is far less well known in the state. (Strickland led by 10 points as recently as mid-September.)

According to the Q poll, much of Strickland's eroding numbers have to do with dissatisfaction about how he has handled the economy with just 33 percent of voters approving and 52 percent disapproving. And, by a 41 percent to 33 percent margin voters trust Kasich over Strickland to handle the state's economy going forward.

The Quinnipiac numbers should be of concern to national Democratic strategists due to the primacy of Ohio to the electoral calculus of the two parties. Ohio has been a central battleground state at the presidential level for decades and has taken on an evem more heightened profile over the past two elections.

President George W. Bush carried the Buckeye State by 118,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million cast in 2004, a win that secured him a second term. And, President Barack Obama's five-point victory last November was an early sign that he was on his way to a considerable electoral vote victory.

Ohio is important in and of itself but is also broadly indicative of the Rust Belt -- Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania among other states -- that have been hardest hit by the economic downturn and may well be looking to punish the party in power in 2010 (and 2012).

The Ohio electorate is clearly uneasy, an unease born of economic uncertainty and a feeling that things may get worse before they get better. It's that same unsettledness that has Republican feeling good about their chances in open seat governors races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan -- states that if Republican can run the table (or come close) will send chills down the collective spines of the White House political team heading into 2012.

By Chris Cillizza  |  November 11, 2009; 1:00 PM ET
Categories:  Most Important Number  
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Comments

A fanatic Dem couple used to call and SCREAM at me for voting for Bush II twice. Now they call and keep repeating, "Why did I vote, why did I ever vote for Obama, why did I get a hundred friends and relatives to vote for Obama? Obama is horrible! Why is he doing these crazy things?"
I think the feeling is contagious all over the nation!

Posted by: mascmen7 | November 14, 2009 10:19 PM | Report abuse

We are not even one year into a four year administration ... I think tracking Ohio poling numbers and extrapolating them to the rest of the country is VERY premature. Things like the shape of the economy in 2012 as well as the outcome of healthcare reform and the war in Iraq ... all things that have not been decided yet are much more important.

Posted by: fjt123 | November 13, 2009 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Why is it the righties always forget that Obama inherited this economic and political mess we are in. The worst economic down fall since the great depression is finally starting to loosen. I'm not completely satisfied with either party but I look at were we would have been if McCain and Palin would have won the White House, END OF STORY

Posted by: shipfreakbo214 | November 13, 2009 9:37 AM | Report abuse

The base doesn't want Lindsey Graham, they want Sarah Palin. Republicans who still believe in logic and honesty are as unwelcome as a gay couple in a Mormon church.

You righties have painted yourselves into a corner with those base uh people. They're too numerous to win without, and you can't win with them since anyone whom the base likes is unelectable. See Hoffman, Doug.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 12, 2009 8:58 PM | Report abuse

HERE'S THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN POLITICS TODAY: The RNC healthcare plan covers 100% of elective abortions.

Posted by: JRM2 | November 12, 2009 8:23 PM | Report abuse

"I have to speak on the Lyndsey Graham situation mentioned by some bloggers here. I am a Conservative Republican, and I like Graham very much. I think he is a thoughtful & compassionate conservative who stands on his principles. We can win with Conservative's like Graham."

Well, how are you people on the right who can still appreciate facts and communicate with others going to beat the movement you created? They are stupid, vicious and they are coming for you too.

Posted by: shrink2 | November 12, 2009 8:15 PM | Report abuse

Chris, here's a thought--maybe the American public are not as memory starved as you think. Maybe they'll remember what the reign of Bush was like, since it's been less than a year. Is there a newspaper like FOX news that you could go write for and washpost could get someone who also mentions the fact that there are people who do in fact vote democrat? dude, sometimes you are just a GOP talking points robot, and there's more of them then their political holdings would indicate neccessary. sometimes Chris it's like if you say it often enough, it will come true...

Posted by: katem1 | November 12, 2009 5:21 PM | Report abuse

On the topic of this article I see in no way how Ohio "is indicative of the rust belt." I just don't see it. I think Ohio is indicative of...Ohio. Pa & Ohio do not vote in correlation. They dang sure don't vote in correlation with Michigan. So then, what do you mean, CC?

I do think, though, that the pendelum has swung the Republican's way in Ohio. Kaish is a very good & credible candidate against Strickland. Portman is an excellent candidate, slight what liberals say, an excellent fundraiser, a great debater and a great communicator that can tap into Conservative anger over Obama's liberal agenda. I'm sure Voinivoich will do everything in his power to ensure Portman is elected. I think Portman is the frontrunner for the US Senate seat & Kaish is on even keel with Strickland and rising. Republicans should also pick up a few house seats in 2010.

I have to speak on the Lyndsey Graham situation mentioned by some bloggers here. I am a Conservative Republican, and I like Graham very much. I think he is a thoughtful & compassionate conservative who stands on his principles. We can win with Conservative's like Graham. Censured by 1 county or so in SC is okay. He still has stroke in every county and I'm certain that Graham will be the Senior Senator from SC for a long, long time. If he had immediate higher ambition, he would have been McCain's running mate in 2008. His win for reelection, I believe, cements his position as the senior senator of South Carolina for many years to come.

Posted by: reason5 | November 12, 2009 12:43 PM | Report abuse

God bless Lindsay Graham.

Posted by: ColdLightning | November 12, 2009 11:35 AM | Report abuse

OT: Lou Dobbs is leaving CNN.

The once-great anchorman turned into a birther racist loony and has been the subject of a concerted "recall campaign" to get him off the air.

Looks like it worked.

Pity you couldn't stick to reading the god damned news, Lou.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 7:27 PM | Report abuse

Maybe you could reccommend them a quiet, out of the way place. where do you take your boys? don't tell me you just stay under the bleachers? Doesn't it get cold there with your shirt off?

Posted by: snowbama | November 11, 2009 7:17 PM | Report abuse

neocom statist ... neocom statist ...

==

Why don't you and arm "Democrap Socialist" get a room together?

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 6:27 PM | Report abuse

The neocom statist governor of Wisconsin is not running again in 2010 after running the state down to “California” levels. He’s getting out while the getting is good. The state Demos can’t find another neocom statist to run. Not even after a recent state appearance by BO himself to persuade someone else to run. The incumbents lose at least 1 of the 57 governorships.

Posted by: leapin | November 11, 2009 6:16 PM | Report abuse

one who had to change their name

==

number disagreement

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 5:56 PM | Report abuse

I love how you Libs dance around the "elephant" in the room.

Projection is a sign of an inferior mind, but that is not news now is it?
I think anyone with a brain knows who the NAMBLA fan is, now don't we, one who had to change their name already once?

Posted by: snowbama | November 11, 2009 5:49 PM | Report abuse

trolling for little kids is probably A-OK too.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite


finally a subject he knows all about. could be a fix first. Like when drivl mentions psychiatry.

Posted by: snowbama | November 11, 2009 5:46 PM | Report abuse

They never do click on related links. Never. They all just obssess on one topic for about 24 hours, everyone of them saying the same thing over and over. That's why I said a swarm of insects or bots. They are mere appendages, body parts of Drudge that do his bidding. Drudgnuts. They are his nuts. haha.

Posted by: drindl | November 11, 2009 5:41 PM | Report abuse

Yes, we're back down to just our resident poo-flinger.

Posted by: nodebris | November 11, 2009 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Ah... the baboons have finished their rampage and (relative) peace and tranquility returns. You think they would have learned how to click on related links.

Snowbama, I present your brethren.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | November 11, 2009 4:48 PM | Report abuse

I knew they would come for Lindsey Graham.
He is not one of them. After all, he can create a sentence that has a subject an object and a verb, maybe he'll throw in a dependent clause, just for art's sake. I've seen him speak in paragraphs that have a topic, a digest of relevant information and a conclusion.

Stick a fork in him.

Posted by: shrink2 | November 11, 2009 4:20 PM | Report abuse

Well they did nothing to impede JD's loading up the blog with racist swill day in day out so trolling for little kids is probably A-OK too.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 4:00 PM | Report abuse

well margaret, he's a hateful creep in every other way, why not a pedophile too? I'm just surprised the WaPo allows sexual solicitation of children on their political blogs.

Posted by: drindl | November 11, 2009 3:49 PM | Report abuse

What is it with snowy and NAMBLA? If he likes boys, that's between him and the boy - I just don't like to read about it e v e r y d a y.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | November 11, 2009 3:47 PM | Report abuse

"overwrought propogandist with little use for reality, civility or reason.'
snowbama


yup, pretty much wraps it up.

Posted by: drindl | November 11, 2009 3:42 PM | Report abuse

More Wingnut Civil War:

"Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is usually thought of as a loyal Republican in Washington -- but he has now been censured by a county Republican organization back home, for working too much with the Democrats.

The Charleston County GOP has censured Graham, citing his work with Democrats on a climate change bill as the final straw, and saying that he he has weakened the Republican brand.

County party chairwoman Lin Bennett says a similar resolution will introduced at the state GOP convention next year."

Yes -- the new Republican Brand. Here's their tag line/slogan: Do Nothing -- Ever.

Posted by: drindl | November 11, 2009 3:39 PM | Report abuse

The thing Republicans may need to worry about is significant media volatility over the rust belt. Ohio might be indicative of the rust belt as a bellwether. Just like volatility in the weather over the rust belt, Democrats could win. It is as good a theory as we've heard.

==

Failure to photoshop away Hoffman's green teeth clearly demonstrates Socialist media bias, triple exclamation point.

Ditto for allowing Hoffman's twenty-second pauses in his speech to get through. Even though they were live the networks should have edited them down. Their failure to alter the flow of time to favor Hoffman CLEARLY indicates support for the Democrat agenda, triple exclamation point.

All over Republican America voters are laying down in front of oncoming trains to express their outrage, triple exclamation point.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 3:15 PM | Report abuse

and the spiral down into liberal kookiness is complete. It only takes two of the stooges anymore - NAMBLA and drivl, neither of the two able to straighten out the cognitive dissonance between the perceptions of I and they.

they are indeed our own little versions of Baghdad Bob. overwrought propogandists with little use for reality, civility or reason.

Posted by: snowbama | November 11, 2009 3:09 PM | Report abuse

The thing Republicans may need to worry about is significant media volatility over the rust belt. Ohio might be indicative of the rust belt as a bellwether. Just like volatility in the weather over the rust belt, Democrats could win. It is as good a theory as we've heard.

Posted by: shrink2 | November 11, 2009 3:05 PM | Report abuse

s2, has anyone told NY-23 yet that the only reason Owens won was Syracuse media market "volatility"? LOL I thought it was because they liked him over Hoffman. Was I ever wrong.

==

Yeah if they knew what they were doing, it's literally inconceivable that Hoffman could have lost. Why would a district of poor rural whites not elect a Wall Street shill? Don' make no sense.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Why get so hot-and-bothered about Governor's races?
They are not bellwethers in any significant sense - Democratic states get Republican governors occasionally (e.g., Massachusetts, California). Republican states can even get a Democratic governor once in a blue moon.

Posted by: skeptic0 | November 11, 2009 2:57 PM | Report abuse

s2, has anyone told NY-23 yet that the only reason Owens won was Syracuse media market "volatility"? LOL I thought it was because they liked him over Hoffman. Was I ever wrong.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 11, 2009 2:54 PM | Report abuse

"Ohio is important in and of itself but is also broadly indicative of the Rust Belt -- Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania among other states ..."

Ohio is broadly indicative of the Rust Belt? Why because Ohio State is in the Big Ten? Three of the four states you mention voted for the D in the last 5 Presidential elections; Ohio went for GWB. In the 2008 Presidential election, three of those four states had BHO winning 55% or more of the popular vote; Ohio was at 52%. As for other Rust Belt states, WV went for McC, IN almost always goes R (except last year).

What on earth are you talking about, CC?

Posted by: mnteng | November 11, 2009 2:51 PM | Report abuse

"The Ohio electorate is clearly uneasy, an unease born of economic uncertainty and a feeling that things may get worse before they get better. It's that same unsettledness that has Republican feeling good about their chances in open seat governors races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan -- states that if Republican can run the table (or come close) will send chills down the collective spines of the White House political team heading into 2012."
___________

This sounds like a re-typing of an RNC GOP mass email. "Chills down the collective spines of [the White House]." What????

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 11, 2009 2:39 PM | Report abuse

This sounds like one of those pre-election Drudge polls that always showed McCain/Phalin winning by double figures. :) These polls are intended to influence opinion, not reflect reality.

==

Yeah, like redrawing the map will create new coastline.

The funny thing about it is that the goopers still seem to think it'll work.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 2:35 PM | Report abuse

This sounds like one of those pre-election Drudge polls that always showed McCain/Phalin winning by double figures. :) These polls are intended to influence opinion, not reflect reality.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | November 11, 2009 2:29 PM | Report abuse

It really doesn't say much for CC that he tolerates him, though.

Posted by: nodebris | November 11, 2009 2:26 PM | Report abuse

"What if the Democrats run the table?"

Nope. G&T is on it. That anomalous D victory only happened in NY23 because the Syracuse media market had "significant volatility". You see, it was because voters there mere ill informed. They were not paying attention until they cast a ballot. The implication is that had they been paying attention (or to state the obvious, had the media been less volatile), those ill informed voters would have known why Doug Hoffman was the right choice. Chris is convinced, he let us know that this is "...as good a theory as we've [sic] heard."

Posted by: shrink2 | November 11, 2009 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Once again, CC -- I ask that you remove this pedophile poster from the board and stop him from using code words to troll for little boys on your blog.

==

Just ignore him. Anyone can see he's mentally ill.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 2:22 PM | Report abuse

So let the Ohio GOP primaries get someone completely unelectable onto the ticket. As they will.

As for that drinking game, I love the latest ... Hoffman lost because of "media volatility."

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | November 11, 2009 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Re: Where's NAMBLA
Posted by: snowbama |

Once again, CC -- I ask that you remove this pedophile poster from the board and stop him from using code words to troll for little boys on your blog.

I'm surprised the WaPo allows this sort of thing -- it's disgusting. You ought to do a better job of protecting children from online predators.

Posted by: drindl | November 11, 2009 2:19 PM | Report abuse

Where's NAMBLA to ruin the blog with feeble attempts at sounding wise? Isn't one complete idiot sufficient. Drivl was here first. go find some other space to air your grievances with your pitiful life.

Posted by: snowbama | November 11, 2009 2:15 PM | Report abuse

NEW DRINKING GAME:

Take a shot everytime CC says something like this:

"The Quinnipiac numbers should be of concern to national Democratic strategists "

You'll be too drunk to drive by noon.

Posted by: drindl | November 11, 2009 1:50 PM | Report abuse

That last paragraph makes it sound like Fix is writng the Republican Book of Revelations -- with some Vegas metaphors.

What if the Democrats run the table? I hear their is a lot of unsettledness out there.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | November 11, 2009 1:49 PM | Report abuse

Little that the Obama administration tries to do will succeed until officials wake up and smell the police state that is making a mockery of the rule of law and human rights.

***

SECRET MULTI-AGENCY FED PROGRAM TORTURES, IMPAIRS, PERSECUTES THOUSANDS OF U.S. CITIZENS WITH SILENT MICROWAVE/LASER WEAPONS, LOCAL VIGILANTISM

• Secret Service Director Mark Sullivan

• FEMA Director Craig Fugate

• NSA Director Lt. Gen. Keith Alexander

• DIA Director Maj. Gen. Michael Maples

• DOJ Asst. Atty. Gen./National Security David Kris

• CIA Deputy Director Stephen Kappes

• FBI Director Robert Mueller

TEAM OBAMA, CONGRESS MUST ASK:

What do they know -- and when did they know it?

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america OR http://NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: "GESTAPO USA"

Posted by: scrivener50 | November 11, 2009 1:39 PM | Report abuse

CC, this is simple. We are now at the bottom of the recession, so of course now is when the public sentiment about the economy will be at its lowest and that is reflected in this poll, not to mention this poll was in the field when the new unemployment numbers were announced.

Unemployment is now at its lowest but will start to level off next month. All other economic indicators have leveled off and most are looking up again. Housing, consumer spending, the stock market, productivity, etc. This is all right before we have the heightened holiday shopping season, and with still 3/4 of the stimulus left to go into effect. Just as a aircraft carrier can not stop and turn around on a dime, neither can the largest economy in the world. The fact that Strickland is still running even is a good sign. In three months he will have a 5-10 point spread again.

Posted by: AndyR3 | November 11, 2009 11:40 AM | Report abuse

Obama aides accuse Pentagon of pressuring
president over Afghanistan
Those around Obama (not a soldier in the lot) don't want the Dean of Dither distracted.

Anyone still wonder why he is falling like a stone, especially in OH?

Posted by: snowbama | November 11, 2009 11:32 AM | Report abuse

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