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2006 Senate Races

On its face, the 2006 cycle seems to favor Republicans. Democrats must defend 17 seats including open races in Vermont (a seat held by an independent who is aligned with Senate Dems.), Maryland and Minnesota. Republicans have 15 seats up with only one open seat, and it's in the Republican-leaning state of Tennessee. Democrats, however, have the edge in recruiting to date, fielding top-tier challengers against incumbents in Arizona, Missouri and Pennsylvania.

Republican-held: 15

* Arizona: Sen. Jon Kyl (2nd term/won last race with 79% of vote)
* Indiana: Sen. Richard Lugar (5th term/67%)
* Maine: Sen. Olympia Snowe (2nd term/69%)
* Mississippi: Sen. Trent Lott (3rd term/66%)
* Missouri: Sen. Jim Talent (1st term/51%)
* Montana: Sen. Conrad Burns (3rd term/51%)
* Nevada: Sen. John Ensign (1st term/55%)
* Ohio: Sen. Mike DeWine (2nd term/60%)
* Pennsylvania: Sen. Rick Santorum (2nd term/52%)
* Rhode Island: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (1st term/57%)
* Tennessee: OPEN (Sen. Bill Frist is retiring)
* Texas: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (2nd term/65%)
* Utah: Sen. Orrin Hatch (5th term/66%)
* Virginia: Sen. George Allen (1st term/52%)
* Wyoming: Sen. Craig Thomas (2nd term/74%)

Democratic-held: 17

* California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (2nd term/won last race with 56% of vote)
* Connecticut: Sen. Joe Lieberman (3rd term/63%)
* Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper (1st term/56%)
* Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (1st term/51%)
* Hawaii: Sen. Daniel Akaka (2nd term/73%)
* Maryland: OPEN (Sen. Paul Sarbanes is retiring)
* Massachusetts: Sen. Ted Kennedy (7th term/73%)
* Michigan: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (1st term/49%)
* Minnesota: OPEN (Sen. Mark Dayton is retiring)
* Nebraska: Sen. Ben Nelson (1st term/51%)
* New Jersey: Sen. Jon Corzine (1st term/50%)*
* New Mexico: Sen. Jeff Bingaman (4th term/62%)
* New York: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (1st term/55%)
* North Dakota: Sen. Kent Conrad (2nd term/62%)
* Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (1st term/49%)
* West Virginia: Sen. Robert Byrd (8th term/78%)
* Wisconsin: Sen. Herb Kohl (3rd term/62%)

Independent-held: 1

Vermont: OPEN (Sen. Jim Jeffords is retiring)

* Sen. Corzine was elected governor of New Jersey in Nov. 2005. He announced that he will appoint Rep. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to fill the remaining year of his term when he takes office in Trenton in January 2006..

By Chris Cillizza  |  September 30, 2005; 12:22 PM ET
Categories:  Senate  
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Comments

It is a historical fact that the GOP has the ideas to move the country forward and provide the protection we need to live in a more secure environment.

Liberals only believe that americans are dumb and unable to help themselves. Liberals believe americans need them because they can not think for themselves.

Liberals believe government must have control of our lives. So they enslaved americans for 40 years in a failed welfare system, they legalized abortions (killing a whole generation of americans who will never be able to raise a family, go to work or support the elderly), they are in the process of providing more rights for gays and perverting marriage and the family structure, they attack Christian values, support the rights of terrorists rather than defending americans. What do Liberals have to offer the citizens on this country? Nothing good.

Posted by: Del | September 15, 2006 1:14 PM | Report abuse

It is a historical fact that the GOP has the ideas to move the country forward and provide the protection we need to live in a more secure environment.

Liberals only believe that americans are dumb and unable to help themselves. Liberals believe americans need them because they can not think for themselves.

Liberals believe government must have control of our lives. So they enslaved americans for 40 years in a failed welfare system, they legalized abortions (killing a whole generation of americans who will never be able to raise a family, go to work or support the elderly), they are in the process of providing more rights for gays and perverting marriage and the family structure, they attack Christian values, support the rights of terrorists rather than defending americans. What do Liberals have to offer the citizens on this country? Nothing good.

Posted by: Anonymous | September 15, 2006 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Traditional logic suggests historic gains for the Dems this November, but that fails to account for the wide disparity between their ability to run and their ability to govern.

They are much better than the GOP at the latter, but their naivity at the former may, once again, be their undoing. Their obsession with "you can't fool the voters,"
is countered with the GOP's "We've been fooling them for years and we will continue to do so." I wish I were wrong but the GOP has it right.

The GOP understands tatoos, cosmetic surgery, tanning salons, bingo, Nascar, and professional wrestling. The Dems just don't get the "dumbing of America." Its frigtening, but its true.

Posted by: Josh L. Sivitz | September 14, 2006 6:06 PM | Report abuse

at some point one of the parties will have to really do something about the illegals overrunning our country asp california

Posted by: clark smith | September 12, 2006 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Democrats are mentally bankrupt. No new ideas for the future...more spending on education and social programs that do not produce anything positive..cut and run strategy when faced with people who hate us and want to control the world...more abortions and gay rights. If you are concerned about your future and children vote Republican.

Posted by: Del | September 12, 2006 12:00 PM | Report abuse

I am hoping that the Democrats get the recognition they deserve for fighting for us--the average person-- in the midst of all this feverish 'blame the victim' mentality which cuts social support programs and disregards education as the line to future careers and any kind of international economic competition.

Posted by: Sarah A. Murphy | August 17, 2006 10:13 AM | Report abuse

The GOP will lose at least five seats-Talent, Burns, DeWine, Santorum, and Chafee. They may also lose Kyle, Allen, Ensign, and Frist's open seat. No democrat will lose reelection and MN and MD are safe as well. The only thing is Lieberman may return as an independant but I think either Lamont will win the general, or Joe will stay a democrat even though he lost the primary.

Posted by: GOPgoingdown | August 10, 2006 1:08 AM | Report abuse

the last comment was ridiculous
the last two midterms were in VERY special circumstances: 98: backclash against Republicans in the context of Monicagate, and 2002: 9-11 effect (barely a year after)
I don't even have to explain why this election is different considernig Bush is at an approval rating of low 30s.
And PA is done: 23% Casey lead in latest (Rasmussen) poll

Posted by: ridiculouslastcomment | June 1, 2006 1:48 PM | Report abuse

I predict that the GOP will pick up 2-3 seats in the Senate (most likely in Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington, Maryland, and/or Nebraska) while the Democrats best bet for an off-setting pick-up is Pennsylvania (which is far from over at this early stage).

Don't forget that this is a mid-term election where turn-out is substantially lower than it is during presidential election years. Furthermore, the party controlling the White House has picked up Congressional seats in each of the last two mid-term elections.

The Democrats should prepare for another traumatizing disappointment this November.

Posted by: Charlie Cook | March 26, 2006 3:16 PM | Report abuse

Your site is realy very interesting.

Posted by: Dublin Flats | March 21, 2006 10:22 AM | Report abuse

Democrats really think that they have a chance to make big gains in the US Senate but most of the Senate races are going to be run on local state issues and the voters are going to look very carefull who they vote for and who tey dont.Senators who talk one way before a election and vote the other way after the election are not going to fool anyone.We have seen more Republicans Senator oppose their president when they disagree with him such as Dubai,the war in Iraq or immigration when the Democrats vote they almost to the man vote as a unit.This does not serve the people well in their state especially in todays system where we are almost 50,50 nation wide.Good people should be retained but those who know nothing but partician politics should take a powder.

Posted by: Garry Allyn DeManty | March 17, 2006 2:22 PM | Report abuse

A new Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters shows U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine with a lead of nine percentage points (46%-37%) over Mr. Brown in a Nov. 7 match up.


Mr. DeWine's lead was five points a month ago, prior to the withdrawal from the Democratic primary of Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett of Cincinnati. Results of the poll were released Sunday.

February 18, 2006--The story of Paul Hackett's withdrawal from the U.S. Senate race in Ohio was a major event in the blogosphere and among political activists. But, just 18% of Ohio voters followed the story very closely. Another 22% said they followed it somewhat closely while 23% said they didn't follow the news on this topic at all.

Overall, 29% of the state's voters agree with Hackett and say he was betrayed by party leaders. Fifteen percent (15%) say he was not, but a majority of voters (55%) have no opinion on the topic. Among Democrats, 31% say he was betrayed and 24% say he was not.

Following Hackett's withdrawal, Republican Senator Mike DeWine has gained ground in his campaign for re-election. DeWine now leads Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown by nine percentage points, 46% to 37% (see crosstabs).

A month ago, DeWine was ahead by five points, 45% to 40%.

Brown's support among Democrats has fallen from 77% in January to 69% this month. Next month's Ohio election poll will provide a hint as to whether this is just a temporary hiccup in the wake of the Hackett withdrawal or an ongoing problem for the Democrats' likely nominee.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Ohio%20Senate%20February.htm

Posted by: RMill | February 22, 2006 10:59 AM | Report abuse

Brown has substantial fundraising lead over HAckett in US Senate Democratic primary race in Ohio.
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/news/13762429.htm

On hand cash gives Brown a 10-1 advantage $2.37 M to just under $230K, even though both raised about half million in last quarter.

Senator DeWine has $4.3 M on hand after raising just under $1 M in last quarter.

This certainly indicates very competitive general election match-ups for the first time in over a decade in Ohio.

Posted by: RMill | February 1, 2006 10:33 AM | Report abuse

It's funny that people try to make believe there is a Senate race in Tennessee. Well, there is, it's called "the Republican primary." I've had Democrats and independents here tell me they are voting in the GOP primary so they can have some say on who our next senator is going to be. Neither of the Dems running is electable and one of them could damage the Dems' chances up and down the line.

Posted by: Lee Elder | December 13, 2005 11:21 AM | Report abuse

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