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Can Specter Be Beaten?

Is Arlen Specter unbeatable for reelection? (Photo by Alex Wong of Getty Images)

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's party switch last week brought endorsements and promises of support from the highest ranks of the Democratic party from President Obama to Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell.

But, do all of those endorsements mean Specter has an easy return path to the Senate next November? Not necessarily.

"Just because he switched parties and has the backing of the White House doesn't mean that he is a lock to win," said one senior Pennsylvania strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly. "He needs to find a venue -- either a significant vote or a defining speech that takes on the Republican establishment -- that will prove he is more than a Democrat in name only."

Specter's immediate problem is the Democratic primary, where Rep. Joe Sestak made clear over the weekend that he is not backing down -- yet.

"I'm kind of disappointed in the Democratic establishment in Washington, D.C.," Sestak told CNN's John King on "State of the Union" yesterday. "I think this last presidential election and certainly when I was swept in two years ago was about not re-establishing the establishment."

Sestak went on to question whether Specter is truly a Democrat and hammered him on his acknowledgment that the switch was primarily done out of political expediency. (To our mind, Specter's admission that he was becoming a Democrat simply because he didn't believe he could win a primary was a mistake from the start; voters hate process arguments as they reinforce their preconceived notions that politicians are in the game solely for their own selfish reasons.)

Sestak has made a career of running against the party establishment -- he mentioned in the CNN interview that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had asked him not to run in 2006 -- and, according to those familiar with his thinking on the race, he is annoyed that the same recruiters who were making the case for how bad Specter was two weeks ago to convince him to run are now lining up behind the incumbent.

And, then there is the issue of the labor community. Specter deeply disappointed labor when, as a Republican, he announced he would oppose the Employee Free Choice Act earlier this year. Even though he has switched, Specter made clear he still opposed EFCA -- the number one priority of labor in this Congress.

Andy Stern, the president of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), praised Sestak as "impressive" during his CNN appearance and said he would be meeting with him today, according to Stern's Twitter feed.

And, according to one high-level labor source in Washington, labor will wait to see results. "We are looking to see how Senator Specter is voting on key issues for
working men and women before making decisions," said the source.

If Sestak can line up labor -- and that is a tall chore given the pressure that will be brought to bear by the D.C. party establishment for the unions to support Specter -- then he has a legitimate path to the nomination. And, don't forget that Sestak is currently sitting on more than $3 million in his House account, every dime of which could be transferred to a Senate race.

Sources close to say the congressman is in no hurry to decide on a Senate bid, preferring to sit back and watch Specter's voting record to see whether the incumbent has truly become a Democrat or not.

Former National Constitution Center Joe Torsella is currently in the race and has pledged to stay in. But, with his political patron (Rendell) already with Specter, it's hard to see how he raises the money or puts together the organization to run and win.

Should Specter survive the primary, he would be a heavy favorite against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the fall, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

Specter held a solid 53 percent to 33 percent edge over Toomey in the survey including a whopping 82 percent to 10 percent lead in Philadelphia.

But, should former Gov. Tom Ridge be the Republican nominee, the race would be far closer with Specter ahead of Ridge by just a 46 percent to 43 percent margin.

Ridge is seriously considering the race and is expected to make his decision in short order, according to those familiar with his thinking.

One factor to consider in whether Ridge runs could well be the slated September release of his book "The Test of Our Times: America Under Siege...and How We Can be Safe Again" that details his two years as the director of the Department of Homeland Security.

Some strategists suggested that the book could give him a boost -- reminding voters of his ability to make tough choices when the pressure is on. Does Ridge want to re-enter public life just as his book is being released? And, is there information in the book that could prove controversial and effect (or even overshadow) a Senate candidacy?

The choice will ultimately come down to how strong the pull of public life is on Ridge. All reports suggests that he is happy in the private sector and a primary against Toomey, who would almost certainly stay in the contest, and then against Specter (or Sestak) would be an extremely tough several years.

And, it's not immediately clear that Ridge would win a primary against Toomey; Ridge is a supporter of abortion rights, not a popular position with the conservative base, which is critical to winning a Republican primary.

What's clear from the jockeying over the days since Specter switched sides is that while he is in far better position to win a sixth term in 2010, he is not a sure thing. A Sestak candidacy would make for a very competitive primary and, if Ridge ran, the general election could be one of the marquee contests in the country next fall.

By Chris Cillizza  |  May 4, 2009; 1:45 PM ET
Categories:  Senate  
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Joe Sestek may actually make a tough democratic primary out of this. Specter was never a "good Republican" and he's going to prove not to be a "good democrat" Does Pa. voters really want a good R or D, or do they want an independent thinker that votes for them? That could have been Specter's argument had he dropped from the R party and ran as an independent, still caucusing with Republicans. At that point in time, he could have supported EFCA and got all of the labor support, got some R votes by caucusing with Republicans & won over the same moderate Democrats & independents that always pull him through. He'd have won with 53% of the vote, while Toomey & some democrat split the rest. However, that was not to be. He choose to become a democrat and admit that he likes the 2 party system but couldn't win as a Republican. Now, he has the possible task of facing a very tough Democratic primary & a stark GE against possibly, Tom Ridge. I sort of doubt that Ridge will run, as private life is going so well for him. He stands to travel & make really good on his book. I like Tom Ridge alot, and staying in private life could set him up well to be a Vice-Presidential candidate in 2012. Ridge could be a great VP for Sanford, Huntsman or Romney in 2012. I really don't see him risking his political future on such an uncertain US Senate race, especially when the publicity & money he can make from the private sector should be much more appealing right now. With all of those factors in, I don't see why Ridge would run for the Pa. senate seat. That being said, I think Sestek has more reason to run. It would be a very tough primary: Sestek & labor vs. Specter & Democratic establishment. If Obama isn't careful, this could strain his relationship with labor as well. Then the winner gets Jim Toomey in a GE. Finally, Toomey can prove his worth in a GE. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Toomey would get slaughtered, gain no more than about 38% of the vote or so...I think that's what Santorum lost with. However, I think Scranton may would be interested in running a primary against Toomey if Ridge opted out, which is likely. Either way, the democratic primary would be the one to watch. I don't know what Sestek will do, but I don't think Ridge will opt into this race.

Posted by: reason5 | May 5, 2009 11:38 AM | Report abuse

And of course there is always NFL great Franco Harris, who is VERY popular in both the black & white ethnic communities. However, his son is running for mayor of Pittsburg against Lynn Swan, so he is rather busy.

Posted by: sturun | May 5, 2009 7:43 AM | Report abuse

"Which is why anyone else can send a check:"

I, too, urge all conservatives to send a check to Norm Coleman, as much as you can spare. And also help fund a Sarah Palin campaign. Give until it hurts. Also, listen to Rush Limbaugh and buy from his sponsors. Strongly support Toomey. Alan Keyes -- there's another rising star: support him. Also, stand around in parks waving tea bags. These are all wise and prudent steps that will have significant positive effects on your nation.

If I become aware of any other rat holes, I'll urge you thither also, out of an abundance of respect and gratitude for the wonderful contribution your efforts have so far made to America's current success.

Posted by: nodebris | May 5, 2009 12:37 AM | Report abuse

I agree that Sestak and Ridge CAN both defeat Specter. I'm not an Pennsylvanian, but I really like Sestak's comments to Matthews last week. I'm very glad it looks like it could be a full on race with well-contested primaries. The voters of PA deserve that, and so does the nation.

I'm a long-time Obama supporter, however it's clear he the administration are still learning where the lines are.

Posted by: kalliek | May 4, 2009 9:59 PM | Report abuse

"I know that Republicans are anti-abortion fanatics nationally, but are Pennsylvania Republicans like that as well?"

Yes, most definitely. The 2008 primaries left the electorate decimated of Specter's base. Ridge would have a very hard time there.

From that perspective, actually, Sestak making a race of it would be good for whoever the Democrat is in the general, because a primary fight in the Dem race would prevent some moderate voters from registering to vote in the Republican primary, where they would vote for Ridge.

Specter could be beaten; I'm frankly not sure Sestak is the right sort of candidate to do it. He's not really any more liberal than Specter is.

"You never heard of Operation CHAOS? Those "Democrats" are going to vote in the primary for whomever Toomey can beat."

Uh-huh. Is there any evidence at all that any substantial number of Limbaugh's supposed followers actually did that? Nope, just anecdotes for select individuals (and some assuredly did). Based on polling, the influx clearly came from moderates, the sort who would have voted for Specter otherwise, which depleted his base in the Republican primary.

Toomey gets slaughtered against any Democrat; Ridge would be a tough opponent, but, even if he got through the primary, it would still be a tough fight. Whether Specter gets the Dem nomination will depend on how he performs over the next year or so, but he's a very canny politician, with a lot of establishment support.

Posted by: SeanC1 | May 4, 2009 9:02 PM | Report abuse

It seems as if Obama called Senators Specter and Hatch today, the latter whom raised concerns initially that Obama was using “buzz words” for a liberal activist justice by suggesting he wanted someone who had “empathy” for the country’s problems. But Obama told Hatch “that was not what he meant, and I take him at his word ... and that he assured me that he would not be picking a radical or an extremist for the court that he was very pragmatic in his approach and that he would pick somebody who would abide by the rule of law.”

LaBolt didn’t challenge Hatch’s account of the call and in his daily briefing, press secretary Robert Gibbs embraced the pragmatist label.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 7:50 PM | Report abuse


You never heard of Operation CHAOS? Those "Democrats" are going to vote in the primary for whomever Toomey can beat.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 6:54 PM | Report abuse

Specter can be beaten, no question. In the overall picture, it won't matter b/c whoever wins the Dem primary will win the General Election (BHO caused 200,000 GOPers to switch parties so PA is now solidly Dem). Ridge would be competitive but can't win.

With his early anti-Dem votes, Specter has already signaled he may play Lieberman-type games with his votes, including votes on cloture (breaking filibusters). Through Carville and others the Dems have hinted publicly if he starts playing games, they will support a primary challenger to Specter.

To end this unwanted drama, I would hope BHO or a surrogate (Rahm maybe) has a private come-to-Jesus meeting with Arlen where he's told on the BIG votes, like the vote to break a filibuster on BHO's SC choice (hopefully a "Judge Hatcher" type), he had better vote Dem--period. Otherwise, Arlen will hold BHO and Reid hostage on every big vote and that will get old fast.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | May 4, 2009 6:45 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD writes:
"Can the primary be that much of a hurdle for Ridge? I know that Republicans are anti-abortion fanatics nationally, but are Pennsylvania Republicans like that as well?"

The problem for Ridge is that many of the moderate Rs that would be his base in a primary have left the party, either for the Ds or as Is. So the R electorate is more conservative (fiscally and socially) now than when Ridge was Gov. I think he'll have a hard time in the primary if he opts in.

While Ridge's tenure at DHS was widely panned, he's still fairly well-liked in PA. But either Ridge or Toomey will also have to contend with BHO's PA organization. I haven't seen as extensive a state-wide operation like that before.

Posted by: mnteng | May 4, 2009 6:23 PM | Report abuse

Which is why anyone else can send a check:

Coleman for Senate Recount Fund
680 Transfer Road, Suite A
Saint Paul, MN 55114

Or call 651-645-0766 to make a donation over the phone (that what we all used to do BEFORE Gore invented the Internets).

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 6:16 PM | Report abuse

"Coleman for Senate Recount Fund"

I'd be careful contributing to that one. He had all his donors' credit card information posted on the Internet a few months back. Whoops!

Posted by: nodebris | May 4, 2009 6:02 PM | Report abuse

What's good for the goose, is good for Snowe and Collins ; )

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 5:52 PM | Report abuse

"I believe it was Ronald WILSON Reagan who set the cut-off point at 80%."

But you have to wonder if Republicans ever questioned whether it is realistic to shoot for 80% from that particular seat. The 65% production they were getting out of Specter could very well be the best the Republicans could hope for. Historically, people who have switched parties start don't retain their previous voting patterns. They start to vote with the party even more than previously. If this holds up with Specter, the Republicans will take an immediate hit. Very likely that 65% drops to 40%. If the Democrats get someone more liberal in that seat, then Republican production probably falls to 10-15%

Republicans didn't have a great thing in Specter, but they might have killed the goose in trying to get a few more eggs.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 4, 2009 5:39 PM | Report abuse


I believe it was Ronald WILSON Reagan who set the cut-off point at 80%.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 5:04 PM | Report abuse

He can not be beaten under the new anti-torture guidelines.

Posted by: leapin | May 4, 2009 4:46 PM | Report abuse

(from MTP)

MR. GREGORY: All right, let me ask you about this switch from the Republican to the Democratic Party. Back in April of this year on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" you said this: "So I'm trying to bring back those voters to the Republican Party. We need balance and I'm trying to get people to register Republican. We need a second party. Look here, our country is built on checks and balances. The only check and balance in America today are the 41 Republican Senators who can talk and filibuster, otherwise, the White House, the House of Representatives will be a steamroller." Well, Senator, you've now decided to join that steamroller. What changed?

SEN. SPECTER: Well, well, since that time I undertook a very thorough survey of Republicans in Pennsylvania with polling and a lot of personal contacts, and it became apparent to me that my chances to be elected on the Republican ticket were, were bleak. And I'm simply not going to subject my 29-year record in the United States Senate to that Republican primary electorate. I'm not going to do that.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 4:43 PM | Report abuse

DISCLAIMERS: I am not a Pennsylvanian. I am not a republican. I like Rep. Joe Sestak. I like Sen. Arlen Specter. I like Rep. Sestak more than I like Sen. Specter.

I think Specter made a Faustian deal with the democrats: his votes on health care, energy, court nominees and other high profile legislation are likely to be influential this year. His re-election is next year. Specter may outlive his usefulness to democrats by the time he starts campaigning as a former republican.

I think Pennsylvania democrats are likely to vote for a Pennsylvania democrat. Not a Pennsylvania republican who became a democrat.

However Faustian Specter's deal was, though, republicans were just being idiotic. Via their extremist litmus tests and the oxymoronic "Club for Growth," they gave up a valuable republican seat. (Specter voted with republicans 65% of the time, but that wasn't good enough.)

Now there's a very strong chance the seat will go to a "real" democrat who will vote against the republicans 100% of the time.


Posted by: dastubbs | May 4, 2009 4:39 PM | Report abuse

I thought that drindl said only Republicans wanted to beat Specter with a baseball bat?

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 4:32 PM | Report abuse

As a Democrat I too am disappointed with the Washington establishment. They should have told Specter to go pound sand. As for being beaten. I believe he can be and should be; preferable with a baseball bat.

Posted by: GabsDaD | May 4, 2009 4:28 PM | Report abuse


Gov. Ridge upgraded border patrol and port checkpoints, spending BILLIONS to do so. Homeland Security was the largest re-alignment of government since WWII. Do your homework, dear.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 4:18 PM | Report abuse

I really like Sestak. And I liked Specter more as a very moderate Republican that as a newly-minted Democrat (partly as a result of his MTP interview yesterday). As usual, it's a very thought-provoking Fix entry.

Perhaps it was just nasty Beltway gossip, but the 'on dit' about Ridge was that in real life he was thick as a brick--don't know if it's true.

OT: Chris, I realise this is nitpicking, but it's 'AFFECT' not 'EFFECT'! You do this so frequently, might I suggest having a discreet tatoo put on the inside of your wrist: 'Affect = verb / Effect = noun'?

Posted by: sverigegrabb | May 4, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Anybody can be beaten. It just takes the right opponent, right political climate, and right campaign.

But I think that Specter is especially vulnerable for several reasons:

1) Voters generally don't like a one-party government, and the out-of-power party will be most disgruntled for the next several years. The 2010 mid-term elections may see voters pull back from the Democratic Party a little. It is still a long time away, and if Democrats press for the wrong kinds of changes, or if they fail to deliver on the kinds of change that people want, voters will punish them. With Specter giving Obama a filibuster-proof Senate, Democrats will bear all of the credit and all of the blame, and a good Republican candidate will be able to exploit this potential swing in mood.

2) Specter looks opportunist. His public statement that he changed parties simply to get reelected makes him look like a career politician who doesn't really stand for anything.

3) Specter may have a tough Democratic primary if a serious candidate challenges him. Especially if Specter votes against a key piece of legislation, which brings that legislation to defeat, Democratic voters may be skeptical of him, and a candidate running on an anti-establishment platform has a good chance against him.

4) Specter will be tarred an unprincipled flip-flopper in the general election, and especially if he has a bruising primary, a strong Republican will be able to give him a hard run. Pennsylvania remains a conservative state in many respects--it was just a few years ago that Rick Santorum was a senator from there--so Republicans may be able to rally.

All in all, Specter's switch probably does offer him a better chance at reelection, but it will be no guarantee.

Posted by: blert | May 4, 2009 4:02 PM | Report abuse

that's close enough.
all specter has to do is mention the wonderful HomeLand Security Dept. that Ridge did exactly nothing with....
except go coloring.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | May 4, 2009 3:58 PM | Report abuse

"Can Specter Be Beaten?
I don't know
Invite him to a tea party in rural PA.
: )"

Your GOP today. all hate, all the time.

Posted by: drindl | May 4, 2009 3:58 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 3:58 PM | Report abuse

didn't hillary win Pennslyvania in the campaign?

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | May 4, 2009 3:54 PM | Report abuse

I guess the real point might be.. if he wins or loses, what impact would it have on the Senate?

I would say that the Democrats will be in good shape until at least 2012.. they are playing a very hot hand. The only one who can screw this up are the Obama inner circle peeps.. if they get too greedy, too pushy or do anything to dilute their base.

Posted by: newbeeboy | May 4, 2009 3:53 PM | Report abuse

P.S. to TheBabeNemo:

You may think that former Gov. Tom Ridge is a "do-nothing", but the Quinnipiac poll shows that race would be far closer that you think, with Specter ahead of Ridge by just a 46 percent to 43 percent margin.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Well, the internet is a huge place. If this particular topic doesn't interest you, there is plenty to do until Chris talks about something more interesting to you.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 4, 2009 3:51 PM | Report abuse

My point is that November 2010 is a long ways away, and anything can happen.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 3:48 PM | Report abuse

"Once upon a time, a Harvard lawyer and MBA (former Goldman Sacs partner worth hundreds of millions) by the name of Jack Ryan looked like a shoe-in for U.S. Senator from Illinois against a then-unknown Barack Obama . . ."

Ok, I'm not sure what your point is here.

Also, I would argue that Ryan was derailed more by his personal issues than by Obama. I bet I could have beaten Ryan at that time.

But yeah, what's the point you're making?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 4, 2009 3:43 PM | Report abuse

I guess you Monday morning quarterbacks know more than the "senior Pennsylvania strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly"?

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD and gbooksdc:

Once upon a time, a Harvard lawyer and MBA (former Goldman Sacs partner worth hundreds of millions) by the name of Jack Ryan looked like a shoe-in for U.S. Senator from Illinois against a then-unknown Barack Obama . . .

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 3:35 PM | Report abuse

Against Toomey, certainly any Democrat should be able to win. No reason to settle for Specter. Against Ridge, it would be tougher (despite his Bush connections). Can the primary be that much of a hurdle for Ridge? I know that Republicans are anti-abortion fanatics nationally, but are Pennsylvania Republicans like that as well?

Toomey reminds me of Santorum. Too conservative for the state. Yeah, Santorum won in 1994, but he got crushed two years back.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 4, 2009 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Whatever Dem is nominated will win. Ridge or not.

The script for beating Specter is that another Philly area candidate jumps in the primary; they split the Philly vote, leaving the way open for a more conservative Western PA Dem.

Posted by: gbooksdc | May 4, 2009 3:28 PM | Report abuse


I, for one, do not think that Chris is wasting my time. If you disagree, you can always stop reading / posting comments.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 3:19 PM | Report abuse

heaven help Pennsylvania if Ridge runs.
He is a do-nothing.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | May 4, 2009 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Specter stated it on the Sunday shows.
He was not going to risk his 29 years in government. He switched because he wanted to run again and win.
And he could do this because Specter is what is known (and has been known) for being a "republican with democratic leanings".
Can Romney do the same thing?
No, he cannot---without fall-out. Too right.

Mr. Specter gets big kudos from me.
He was truthful as all get out and I love it.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | May 4, 2009 3:02 PM | Report abuse

I guess both parties will have to decide whether they would be better off with this geezer..or without him. People of PA, think before you drink.

Posted by: newbeeboy | May 4, 2009 2:57 PM | Report abuse

Where is Ridge on the labor issue? If he is more pro-labor than Specter he would be shoo-in.

Posted by: HardyW | May 4, 2009 2:57 PM | Report abuse

No, of course not. What a stupid question, Cillizza. Is this what they pay you for?

State leans Democratic. Specter switches to Democratic party. Party promises no primary challenge. Specter is also incumbent. Specter wins easily.

Was that too difficult for you to figure out on your own?

What IS up with you lately, Cillizza? All you seem to do is ask silly questions like, "Does the latest Republican event that drew 100 people signal a revival in the party?" Most of the people I have coffee with could come up with better questions and essays than you have been. Get it together or stop wasting everyone's time.

Posted by: bigbrother1 | May 4, 2009 2:47 PM | Report abuse

The odds are that Arlen Sphincter will win.

There isn’t enough Preparation H on the planet to remove a hemorrhoid that big.

Posted by: rexreddy | May 4, 2009 2:44 PM | Report abuse

Can Specter Be Beaten?
I don't know
Invite him to a tea party in rural PA.
: )

Posted by: rexreddy | May 4, 2009 2:34 PM | Report abuse

I'm not a Democrat, but this post from the first Specter thread still makes sense:

"The real q is, has a deal been made to clear the Democratic primary field for Specter? Because in a contested Dem primary he's far, far from a lock, facing the same problem on his left he faced with Toomey on his right. Really, I do have a reservoir of respect for Arlen, but why should any Dem vote for him when we've been trying for twenty years to get rid of him?

We can almost certainly elect a real Democrat if Toomey's the opponent; why on earth would we choose a fake one instead?"

Posted by: howlless | April 28, 2009 1:13 PM

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 2:33 PM | Report abuse


Coleman for Senate Recount Fund
680 Transfer Road, Suite A
Saint Paul, MN 55114

Or call 651-645-0766 to make a donation over the phone

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 2:29 PM | Report abuse

JakeD said it in a nutshell. I would go further and say that Sestak or Ridge "could" beat Specter. Would either beat him? Who knows?

That would be crystal ball stuff. What is interesting is the major league caliber of opposition you say he may draw, Chris.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | May 4, 2009 2:19 PM | Report abuse

I agree that "Specter's admission that he was becoming a Democrat simply because he didn't believe he could win a primary was a mistake from the start". I donated to both Toomey and Torsella the very next day.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 2:15 PM | Report abuse

As a political junkie (and PA resident), I hope both Sestak and Ridge decide to run. Nothing like TWO hard-fought primaries followed by a good general to liven up a mid-term election.

Wish they'd all decide so I can figure out whether I want to register as a D or R.

Posted by: mnteng | May 4, 2009 2:12 PM | Report abuse

ANSWER: Anyone can be beaten.

Posted by: JakeD | May 4, 2009 2:11 PM | Report abuse


If Arlen Specter's late-life conversion prompts him to take down the Bush-Cheney- spawned "extrajudicial punishment network" of covert "programs of personal destruction"...

...and a Gestapo-like grassroots vigilante army of government-backed "community gang stalkers"...

...the newly-minted Democrat will win in a landslide.

Otherwise, it could be a tough fight.

OR (if links are corrupted / disabled):

Posted by: scrivener50 | May 4, 2009 2:07 PM | Report abuse

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