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GOP Pullout in Ohio Could Have Ripple Effect

After weeks of press reports indicating that the Republican National Committee would end its advertising buys in Ohio's Senate race, the committee, amid much internal debate, finally pulled the plug on Thursday.

Spin it as they may, the pullout can only be read one way: National Republicans no longer believe Sen. Mike DeWine (R) can beat Rep. Sherrod Brown (D). With millions being spent in Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia and now New Jersey, the RNC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee decided that no amount of money could save DeWine.

Considering the Buckeye State's primacy in the last two presidential elections, the fact that national Republicans have effectively ceded the Senate and governor races there shows the damage done to the GOP brand by the ethical questions surrounding Gov. Bob Taft (R), who will retire after his current term, and Rep. Bob Ney (R), who faces sentencing for a bribery conviction stemming from the Jack Abramoff scandal.

It also raises questions about whether the handful of targeted Republican House members can withstand the double whammy of a difficult national political environment and a state political landscape where having an "R" after your name is akin to wearing a scarlet letter.

Both parties acknowledge that Ney's seat -- the 18th -- is a likely Democratic pick-up. State Sen. Joy Padgett (R), Ney's replacement on the ballot, has proven a somewhat flawed candidate, dogged by questions surrounding her personal finances. In a year like this one and in a state like Ohio, ANY ethical issues (perceived or real) spell doom for Republicans.

Beyond the 18th, Democrats believe they have strong chances in three other seats currently held by Republicans: the 1st, 2nd and 15th districts.

In the 1st, Rep. Steve Chabot (R) faces a challenge from Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley (D). Democrats say Cranley is either tied or ahead in private polling while Republicans believe that, while close, the contest favors the incumbent.

The 2nd has been in the national spotlight since August 2005 when Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett (D) nearly upset Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) in a special election prompted by former Rep. Rob Portman's (R) resignation to become U.S. Trade Representative. Schmidt has proven to be less than stellar as a candidate, and Democrats see an opportunity to unseat her despite the suburban Cincinnati district's Republican underpinnings.

And in the Columbus-area 15th, Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) has struggled to distance herself from the unpopular Republican House leadership (of which she is a member) in her race against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Republicans say that Pryce, who once looked dead in the water, is making a comeback in the contest but admit that she faces by far the toughest reelection of her political career.

The fate of the four House races mentioned above could well determine which party controls the House when Congress reconvenes in January. While the RNC's lack of a television presence will have the most direct impact on DeWine's reelection chances, there is already speculation in Republican circles that the pullout could have a negative trickle-down effect in House races as well -- dispiriting activists and depressing the party's base.

Keep your eye on these four Ohio House races on election night. They will provide a telling indication of which party will be celebrating on Nov. 8.

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 27, 2006; 1:27 PM ET
Categories:  House , Senate  
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Next: Michigan Senate: In Play Or All Over?

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Posted by: Jeffrey Samples | November 12, 2006 11:52 AM | Report abuse

I thought i was very cynical until I read JEPs comment.
That said,I agree with the assessment.
Rove's smugness is in direct proportion to the manipulations that will occur on election day.

We are living a decade of events that "no one could imagine" could happen--to paraphrase our Sec of State.

So imagine it--

Altered election results are all part of Rove's get out/throw out the votes strategy

The Republicans will maintain control.

Posted by: frank | October 30, 2006 2:35 PM | Report abuse

It looks like Burns is coming back from the dead in Montana. A new poll out shows Tester-51% and Burns 48%. That's within the margin of era, and it appeared that Tester had polled out at around 48%. This one is going to be real close on election day. I think Allen, Talent and Corker all win those races in Va., Mo. and Tenn. It looks like the dems. will hold Md. I think Santorum and Dewine are done for, Pa. and Ohio will be dem. pick-ups. NJ and RI are just too close to call. But, it looks like the dems. are the clear winners b/c they pick up 2 seats, at least.

As for the house, it appears like were looking at Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Posted by: reason | October 30, 2006 8:59 AM | Report abuse

I still think Allen will pull it out in a squeaker, but whatever happens any national ambitions he had are done, so th Dems did achieve their top objective there. Dewine, Chafee, and Santorum are out, and probably Burns as well. Dems should hold NJ and MD, MO and TN are going to be close, but a pickup of four is what I'm hoping for (so long as Collins and Snowe continue to oppose the nuclear option).

Posted by: Michael | October 29, 2006 3:25 PM | Report abuse

JEP and Mimi - "It ain't over till it's over!"

Don't count your forks until they're done.

Posted by: Yogi | October 29, 2006 11:14 AM | Report abuse

The really interesting thing about Allen making a federal case out of fiction is that Webb got to tell Virginians how Allen, like Bush, doesn't read books.
Dumb and dumber, both intellectually bankrupt.

After six years of Bush's incompetence and Allen's rubberstamp fealty, I think Virginias will send Allen packing.

Moreover, after Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers come out tomorrow and endorse Webb, stick a fork in Allen, his goose is cooked, he's-a-goner.

I might add, just like Allen feared when in a last ditch effort to save his sorry butt he decided to smear the good name of Jim Webb and his stellar character, which will no doubt be mentioned when newspapers across the state endorse him.

You see, Allen had to attack this past Friday; time was running out. His whispering campaign wasn't working; the media wasn't going to report about some book passage. If anybody did the attacking, it would have to be Allen, front and center. And if he waited 'till Monday, with endorsements cming out on Sunday, it would be too late. His faux concern and Lynn Cheney's outrage would be seen as a clear desperate act of a losing candidate.

Webb has already garnered endorsements from the Washington Post, Virginian-Pilot, and Community Newspapers. I expect him to also pick up the endorsements of Roanoke Times, Daily Press and others -- just like Warner and Kaine on their way to victory in November.

Posted by: Mimi Schaeffer | October 29, 2006 12:10 AM | Report abuse


DEMS would be wise to follow Harold Ford's response ad to the PLAYBOY accusation. This is probably the most sofisticated, intellectual ad on the air. I would run ads that follow Pelosi's promise of min wage hike, health care, government oversight. It is time to contrast positive message of DEMS to the inflammatory nessage of GOP. However, I would also be running intellectual responses to GOP attacks.

Just a gut instinct, the GOP threw everything including the kitchen sink at the DEMS this week, nothing stuck except the stench of a desparate party. Stick a Fork In it, Rove can not pull this one out.

Posted by: Stick A Fork In It | October 28, 2006 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Anyone who denies the long history of voter fraud and election manipulation by the Bush family is forgetting Sr's years at the CIA, where that was his JOB.

Elections across Central America, Europe and the Middle East were managed by that small and silent circle of manipulators, and anyone who thinks they aren't still "with us" is ignoring the truth.

Anyone who thinks this is a paranoid delusion is ignoring Exxon's record profits.

You are either naive or you are one of thier ignorant enablers if you suggest that this is just a conspiracy theory.

Ultimate power not only corrupts ultimately, it invariably creates in its wake a raging, devious, bloodthirsty beast that will protect itself with any tool, no matter how unholy, and at any cost.

So don't be naive. They WILL commit election fraud if it is thier only way to hold onto power.

It is not just a possibility, it is a probability, that there has been and will continue be election fraud of historic proportions, to match the historic desperation of the neocons and thier subsidiaries.

Posted by: JEP | October 28, 2006 9:42 AM | Report abuse

"That the 2004 victory was because of a groundswell of values voters who showed up on election day and for which traditional polling doesn't account for."

Never really happened...

Posted by: JEP | October 28, 2006 9:32 AM | Report abuse

There is one other point to be made here Chris and you need to address it in your public musings. The GOP keeps telling us that the polls are all wrong because they don't account for the GOP base voters who show up in larger numbers on election day. This is completely false. Pollsters are paid professionals who know what they are doing and who factor in any of this nonsense about voters who hang up or don't participate in polls.

The GOP makes it sound as though there is some magical hidden group out there who shows up on election day to save their bacon. It just isn't true. The GOP made gains in 2004 not simply because of values voters. The GOP picked up voters in a disparate group of demographics that all fall into the category of swing voters.

The GOP likes to think they won simply because their base was energized but believe me when I say that if even small numbers of voters in those swing groups had voted the other way or not voted at all, the 2004 election would look very different today. Kerry would have bewen elected and with him a goodly number of democrats in the House and Senate.

There are no magical hidden voters out there. And another myth that needs to be addressed is the one that says the polls in 2004 prior to the elction favored Kerry and the democrats. That isn't true either.

Posted by: Jaxas | October 28, 2006 9:31 AM | Report abuse

I think I know where Karl Rove is coming from when he boldly claims that the GOP will hold both houses. Rove is making his predictions based on a flawed premise: That the 2004 victory was because of a groundswell of values voters who showed up on election day and for which traditional polling doesn't account for.

Here is why I believe that logic is flawed: A flawed exit poll. Rove and the GOP are basing their expectation on an exit poll taken after the 2004 election that showed that of all of the issues ranked, values was the issue most mentioned as a reason for voting GOP. It got 20%, higher than the war, terrorism and the economy.

Think about that for a minute and ask yourself this question: If values got 20% mention, then 80% of the people in the exit poll were more concerned about other issues. It is this topsy turvy way that Rove and the GOP interpret 2004 that verywell could be their downfall this year.

All of the issues that ranked as also rans in that exit poll are much more important this year. And Rove's touting of the vaunted GOP groundgame--as admitted by GOP electoral analysts themselves--can only garned an addition 2% to 3% gain. And that assumes that the same deomgraphic groups that responded to the GOP effort in 2004 are going to again.

We know that isn't going to happen because large numbers of independents who voted for the GOP in 2004 are not going to be there this time. What most people don't seem to realize is just how close the elctions were in 2004 notwithstanding the GOP groundswell at the end. And that groundswell wasn't just the GOP base. It included a good many groups that don't traditionally vote for the GOP.

That is why I think Bush and Rove may be kidding themselves.

Posted by: Jaxas | October 28, 2006 9:15 AM | Report abuse

The minimum wage ballot initiative will be a killer for the Ohio GOP. Minimum wage initiatives are also on the ballot in Arizona, Missouri, and Montana.

Chabot and Pryce are toast. It also seems pretty certain that Ney's seat will go Dem. Mean Jean Schmidt may pull it out.

Posted by: Dick Tuck | October 28, 2006 2:28 AM | Report abuse

11 days to go KOZ... and then you'll be eating your own words.

By the way - a question for KOZ, Bhoomes et al - you've all heard Nancy Pelosi discuss the legislation she will move to enact if the Democrats take control of the House, what do you think of it?

Will you dismiss an increase in minimum wage or reformist lobbying rules as quickly as you lambast her record and demonize her Frisco values?

Posted by: Concerned | October 27, 2006 10:09 PM | Report abuse

Oh- and as a native of OH-1 (with family still there), R- Chabot will win solidly, but D-Wulsin has a money lead on R-Schmidt in OH-2 and the folks down there are pretty embarassed by her (Schmidt's) idiocy.

Posted by: DCA2CMH | October 27, 2006 9:54 PM | Report abuse

1st hand, as a resident and registered voter in OH-15, I really don't think R-Pryce is out of the picture just yet. R-Shamanshy doesn't really have a chance.

DeWine has PLENTY of his own PAC money, so the RNCC can divert it elsewhere (NJ, possibly). I'm not sure Dewine's advantage will help him much more come election time though, he can't seem to credibly fight his way out of a paper bag, hasn't fought off a solid candidate to-date in his career, and Brown's populist message is ringing true to alot of people.

Re. stolen elections (especially here Columbus in '04). I witnessed 1st hand strong-arms at polls near OSU (King St. Church), cars being towed and parking lots being blocked (Maple Grove Church), and library doors being locked (Cleveland Ave.) It happened, and I'll be out with my camcorder this time around. Blackwell is a complete and absolutely shameless crook and the world really needs to see it. Not crying "foul" because D's lost- just calling out the truth.

Posted by: DCA2CMH | October 27, 2006 9:51 PM | Report abuse

Watch John Hall take down Kelly in NY. What we are going to see is the total destruction of the GOP in the Northeast and places like Ohio and Arkansas. It will be a shocking smash. If you look at a place like the Hinchey district in NY, it tells you what is really happening in this country, especially the so-called exurbs. This district was once controlled by the right-wing senior Fish, then by his "moderate" son. It is now in the hands of a very liberal Hinchey. And this is in a place, Orange County (as being a key), that was once not long ago a Rove wet-dream. The GOP is done in NY.

Posted by: Smashing Nutjobs | October 27, 2006 8:20 PM | Report abuse

"I have always said that incumbancy and money is the key to any election. for that reason Tiberi, Latourrette, Boehner,Pryce and maybe even Padgett will win their elections. And you losers might want to try a different conspiracy this time around. you are being laughed at." - kingofzouk

Does everyone remember a few months ago when kingofstupidity here was saying the exact same thing about Mike Dewine?

Neocon Fantasy Land is a strange place indeed......

Posted by: Ohio guy | October 27, 2006 8:17 PM | Report abuse

Do you want your senator to have thoughts of pedophilia and incest? Where does this come from? Who thinks that way?

Gee, dunno, maybe the same guys, not writers, who let a male prostitute into the White House dozens of times; maybe a bisexual Bush, gay Cheney, Rove and Melhman. Maybe anal fissure Rush and Foley. Think we are going to assume the position ever again? Think not, dear Allen campaign member! We are going to reveal every single sexual experience of all nutty right-wingers, like the junior GOP senator who goes around denouncing gays and yet enjoys the company of shemales.

Posted by: Goober | October 27, 2006 8:13 PM | Report abuse

The Dems will take the House but the margin will be less than perdicted. I think the Dems will pick up 18-20 seats in the House. The Rep's 'get-out-the-vote' program will rally enough people to make a lot of races closer than current polls perdict.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 27, 2006 7:20 PM | Report abuse

Ohio was lost to the GOP in 2004, only Blackwell overturned the results. It doesnt look like he has an encore. Stick a fork in it, DEms will run the table in Ohio, PA, NY, and other states.

The inch by inch for the dems will be a tsunami on Nov. 7.

Posted by: Stick A Fork In it. | October 27, 2006 6:34 PM | Report abuse

"Pleeeeeaaaasssssee!! Who thinks that way?"

People who have been there and seen it first hand and have had their lives profoundly affected by it, something sheltered hide behind the flag Republicans know nothing about.

Posted by: Michael | October 27, 2006 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Please, sour grape Democrats, tell me more how whenever you lose an election, it's because the election was stolen. GMAFB. Quit making up stories about stolen elections when the fact of the matter is that the Dems have been lousy candidates for the past few elections. You can't accept that you actually lost, so you make up a story like Diebold to divert attention from your past inadequacies. Vote suppression is fairly easy to prove; Manipulation of electronic voting machines has not been proven at all. It takes a lot more than a few mismatched exit polls to claim our democracy was subverted and our elections stolen. It is a baseless accusation that is used solely as a political tactic. When the 2006 election is won by the Democrats, we will no longer hear of the Diebold lie as it will no longer serve any political purpose for the partisan Democrats that perpetuate the myth.

Posted by: ErrinF | October 27, 2006 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Please, sour grape Democrats, tell me more how whenever you lose an election, it's because the election was stolen. GMAFB. Quit making up stories about stolen elections when the fact of the matter is that the Dems have been lousy candidates for the past few elections. You can't accept that you actually lost, so you make up a story like Diebold to divert attention from your past inadequacies. Vote suppression is fairly easy to prove; Manipulation of electronic voting machines has not been proven at all. It takes a lot more than a few mismatched exit polls to claim our democracy was subverted and our elections stolen. It is a baseless accusation that is used solely as a political tactic. When the 2006 election is won by the Democrats, we will no longer hear of the Diebold lie as it will no longer serve any political purpose for the partisan Democrats that perpetuate the myth.

Posted by: ErrinF | October 27, 2006 4:56 PM | Report abuse

Karen and Bob Jones:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701000.html

Now, where is Drudge's, Fox's, and the WSJ's thoughtful piece on the non-fictional character who is running for Senate beating his sister? I'd love to see a reporter ask Allen, "when did you stop beating your sister?" It's so rare when you get to honestly ask that question.

Posted by: jon | October 27, 2006 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Re: Shift in parties -
Its been going on for awhile - based on income\education\ethnicity. Of the 10-states with the highest per capita income, all are "blue" except for Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia - all of which seem to be shifting towards blue. There is a very, very high correlation between income and education (surprise). Since the Northeast and the Far West have the highest incomes, reflecting their better educated residents - they are blue or going blue. In 2002, no Republican won any major county level job in Metro New York. That's all part of the real shift.

By comparison - 9 of the 10 states with the lowest per capita incomes are red (new mexico is the odd one here). They are overwhelmingly southern or in the great plains.

Conspiracy theory - the real reason that Republicans have been on the war path against America's public schools is to dumb them down, not build them up. Anybody want to discuss that. Let's have Limbaugh and Falwell educate our young!

Posted by: florida fred | October 27, 2006 4:50 PM | Report abuse

McCain blew it with me when he let the torture bill go through without any changes. I don't want to hear that he only went along with it to satisfy his party or figured it would get overthrown in court, He folded, and lost a lot of votes because it. Shame on McCain

Posted by: Anonymous | October 27, 2006 4:46 PM | Report abuse

I wouldn't count all the Rs as completely out of it just yet. I also wouldn't go around celebarating a gaint Dem wave overtaking the country. the small barely perceptive shift in the last week or so indicates that upon further reflection, the voters have decided that as bad as Rs may be right now, Dems are worse. all those upsets you are predicting as a result of fraud are simply the electorate responding as it normally does without the input of the media which is trying to hand this election to the left. the treatment of Allen by the WaPo is disgraceful for a "news" paper. If you want to investigate voter fraud, look into ACORN in MO who registers thousands of voters, almost half are easily and identifiably fraudulent. Some coincidence that they are all Dems? why don't Dems want to show IDs at voting booths?

I have always said that incumbancy and money is the key to any election. for that reason Tiberi, Latourrette, Boehner,Pryce and maybe even Padgett will win their elections. And you losers might want to try a different conspiracy this time around. you are being laughed at.

I got one, the voters considered the Dems and rejected them. Easy and true. thanks Occam. No one wants to vote for a Dem, they were considering voting against an R but decided to remain prosperous and safe instead. Really not that complicated, even an I can figure it out, but apparantly not a D. Try fixing the failing Government schools. you can have another shot in 2016.

Posted by: kingofzouk | October 27, 2006 4:40 PM | Report abuse

While it is certainly true that Taft and Ney have contriubted to the downfall of the Republican Party, to only mention them is to paint too narrow a portrait of Ohio's falling out of the Republican sway. Iraq is terribly problematic in Ohio, Ohio has been hard hit by casualties in what people now recognize was a war that never should have been fought and which made the United States less safe rather than safer by diverting attention away from Afghanistan. The claim that the economy is doing well just doesn't fly here - the stock market now longer reflects the fiscal realities of the average American (if it ever did) and certainly does not reflect the fiscal realities of the average mid-westerner. The Stock market can be going gang busters while shops and plants are falling into bankruptcy. And then the traditional conservative voter in ohio has been (with some exceptions primarily in the south) a fiscal conservative and there is nothing fiscally conservative anymore about the republican party. It is is not just Taft and Ney, it is Bush and The republican party in general. Republicans will be hard pressed to regain in the future what they have lost in Ohio

Posted by: James in Ohio | October 27, 2006 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Lynn Cheney has lesbian sex scenes in her book, "Sisters". May we assume she is a lesbian? I suppose marriage to Dick would...

Posted by: wiccan | October 27, 2006 4:34 PM | Report abuse

Robert Jones "Where is your story on Jim Webb and his pornographic writings with its animalistic view of women."

How did you feel about the Newt's books? I hear some of his novels are a bit over the edge in spots.

Posted by: bsimon | October 27, 2006 4:21 PM | Report abuse

Zathras, I agree. I think that McCain has done the posturing we've seen over the last couple years, not because he wants to continue the Bush Legacy, but because he wants to pick up the pieces of the Republican Party after the electorate wakes up to the madness.

Posted by: bsimon | October 27, 2006 4:15 PM | Report abuse

The story of Webb's book is topic #1 for today in the right-wind echo chambers like Limbaugh and Redstate. However, even in these places, you can see some criticism starting to appear.

This brings up a more general point: this election is as important for the GOP as the Democrats. A loss could be the best result possible for the GOP. Think about it. Mehlman will be gone. Rove will perceived to be less important, perhaps obsolete. Most importantly, real debate might again occur within the GOP. For too long the emphasis in the GOP has been to speak with one voice. A defeat for the GOP would be a rebuke to this Politburo style of politics.

I look forward to a more diverse GOP, and I do so not as a lifelong Democrat or someone motivated by spite. I was a Republican up until 10 years ago, when it seemed that something was becoming awfully awry with the party. I hope that the GOP can take a long hard look at itself at realize what democracy really means.

Posted by: Zathras | October 27, 2006 3:59 PM | Report abuse

Robert, read the book before you criticise, otherwise you're just spouting talking points, in lockestep. I can comment on Allen and the Macaca comments because thanks to youtube, I've seen them. There's a difference.
Ahh yes, the old plait of the republican: 'It's not the terrorists who are truly evil, it's the liberal main-stream media'. You know how that makes you sound, don't you?

Posted by: Anonymous | October 27, 2006 3:25 PM | Report abuse

By Karen's and Robert Jones's reasoning, Agatha Christie, Dick Francis, Patricia McDowell, and Sue Grafton are muderers. Call the police!

Posted by: wiccan | October 27, 2006 3:20 PM | Report abuse

Loudon Voter says "Inch by inch, the Democrats are advancing from the coasts, pushing the Repubs back to their strongholds in the plains and the south. In the east, Virginia is slowly, inexorably turning blue; the same is happening to Colorado and Nevada in the west."

I agree. The Repubs lost sight of their roots and let dreams of a permanent majority pervert their principles. I suspect this election is going to be a wake up call for the Republican leadership. Like him or not, I suspect someone like McCain will try to pick up the pieces & rebuild a traditionally conservative party, relegating the TVC types to the corner in which they belong. It will be good for the party and good for the country.

Posted by: bsimon | October 27, 2006 3:17 PM | Report abuse

Chris, you have spent too much time in NY and Washington, talking to the same tired old pundits. The "R" isn't a scarlet letter. The "W" is! People, ordinary people by the millions, detest-loathe this president and everything he has done and everything he stands for. The Republican can, and hopefully will, recover from this mess and learn from it. But, you are doing grave disservice to the readers of this column if you do not point out the undeniable fact that Bush and his people are pure and simple poison to anyone seen with them. In Oregon, my state, we have a very good candidate running for major and another moderate and reasonable guy running for governor. They are both 10 or more points behind because their Democratic opponents simply ran ads of them praising Bush or the fiasco in Iraq or some lame Bush pronouncement about the economy at one time or another. I honestly believe that every Republican that is within 5 points of their Democratic rival is in serious trouble right now and furthermore they all know it.

Posted by: MikeB | October 27, 2006 3:07 PM | Report abuse

I am a little surprised OH-14 hasn't become considered competative. LaTourette is flawed and it really should not have been too difficult to put his seat in play. I would love to hear any poll results for that race.

Posted by: Napoleon in Cleveland | October 27, 2006 2:54 PM | Report abuse

P.S. Strange, we haven't heard from boohoomes/koz/vivabush/vivablackwell in quite some time too... Guess there's not much life in Ohio these days.

Not on that side of the aisle. :-)

Posted by: Chris in Columbus | October 27, 2006 2:48 PM | Report abuse

Where is your story on Jim Webb and his pornographic writings with its animalistic view of women. The Washington Post is a pathetic lying newspaper.

Posted by: Robert Jones | October 27, 2006 2:47 PM | Report abuse

This is all beginning to sound screwy. Do we really think that Diebold will be nationally hacked to steal an election? Put them on the "grassy knoll" with the rest of the fruit loops when it happens. I think we have more to worry about individuals and neighborhoods being "poll shifted" by unscrupulous ward monitors and being denied their francise, than computer hakcing election fraud, on a national scale.....

Posted by: L.Sterling | October 27, 2006 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Wow...we haven't heard from Karen in a while. The article Chris wrote happens to be about Ohio and that Dewine is going down whether he has 2 million in the bank or not! Yet she is so taken up with Jim Webb who wrote his novel about the hellish and horrific life in Vietnam which he saw with his own eyes. I guess being in war-torn places and witnessing horrific struggles makes one a pedophile. I guess that's why Bush/Cheney/Rummy/ et. al skipped out on that war, getting deferrments, but Webb didn't skip out! Nice try Karen. Let's get back to talking about Dewine and the fact that he IS GOING TO LOSE!

P.S. Strange, we haven't heard from boohoomes/koz/vivabush/vivablackwell in quite some time too... Guess there's not much life in Ohio these days.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 27, 2006 2:37 PM | Report abuse

How come there is no "Line" today?

Posted by: Mike | October 27, 2006 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Karen, why are you lying?

Posted by: Pontifex | October 27, 2006 2:29 PM | Report abuse

Karen - Webb's sister wasn't the one who wrote a NON-fiction book about her brother, George The Psychopath Allen. Who threw another brother through a plate glass window, dangled her over Niagara Falls, and snapped a few friends' collarbones when he got a little ..um, testy. That's the mind of someone who would drive around with a severed deer head dripping blood looking for JUST the perfect mailbox to stuff it into.

Webb makes his living writing fiction. George bamboozles the good citizens of Virginia by covering up his true nature.

Posted by: slavin | October 27, 2006 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Folks, this is all part of a larger trend that will take decades to play out.

The Republicans are getting -- to use a term favored by Civil War historians -- "rolled up."

Inch by inch, the Democrats are advancing from the coasts, pushing the Repubs back to their strongholds in the plains and the south. In the east, Virginia is slowly, inexorably turning blue; the same is happening to Colorado and Nevada in the west.

Everyone, please respond! Civilly, please.

Posted by: Loudoun Voter | October 27, 2006 2:20 PM | Report abuse

I hear the deibold company is updating thier voting machines without notifying the states. We are now in for a November surprise when the Rep's win Ohio by fraud.

Posted by: John Larson | October 27, 2006 2:18 PM | Report abuse

k

Posted by: Anonymous | October 27, 2006 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Do you want your senator to have thoughts of pedophilia and incest? Where does this come from? If he was singing a rap song, then the WaPo would really, really be offended. The N word? 23 times in one chapter. WaPo idea of art? then why not the Danish Muslim cartoons? aren't they art? YouTube will allow American to see inside Jim Webb's mind, and the WaPo will remember that it endorsed a guy with such a twisted mind to be senator. It's Art? It's fiction? Pleeeeeaaaasssssee!! Who thinks that way?

Posted by: Karen | October 27, 2006 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Zathras,

Excellent point! Thanks for mentioning that. Those are 4 very, very strong states for the Dems this year. It's hard to see them failing to take the House with that in mind.

Posted by: Jackson Landers | October 27, 2006 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Did you notice Chris didn't mention that DeWine has over $2 million left in the bank? Why does he even need republican money? As we find out the Jim Webb is having some very strange ideas about young boys and their dads, we see that the WaPo coverup of Webb's psychosis is just another reason to wait for the next round of layoffs at WaPo. 200,000 decline in circulation, more each week if the military websites are accurate on the disgruntled readers fed up with the left wing bias. Today, if you only read the WaPo, you will think Jim Webb is a really, really nice guy. Even Imus thinks he is a pervert.

Posted by: Karen | October 27, 2006 2:08 PM | Report abuse

--republican private contractors in iraq--negligent homicde...

'The families of four civilian contractors killed in Iraq have cleared another legal hurdle in their wrongful death lawsuit against the men's employer, Blackwater USA.

The U.S. Supreme Court denied Blackwater's request for a stay, meaning the case heads back to state court in North Carolina for trial.

The lawsuit was filed in January 2005 by the families of four men whose convoy was ambushed in Fallujah on March 30, 2004. In one of the most notorious incidents of the war, their bodies were burned and strung up from a bridge.

The lawsuit claims Blackwater failed to provide them with armored vehicles, weapons and maps as promised, and did not give them a chance to learn local routes before being sent out on their fatal mission. As Brian Ross first reported on ABCNews PrimeTime last year, one of the men complained about the unprofessionalism in an e-mail home just before he died.

"They knew when they sent those poor men in there that there was little chance they'd ever come out," says Katy Helvenston, whose 38-year-old son Scott was among those killed. "I don't care about the money," she told ABC News, "I want accountability."

Posted by: drindl | October 27, 2006 1:58 PM | Report abuse


'U.S. intelligence sources tell ABC News they are "dismayed and alarmed" by published reports that nine men arrested last year during a raid on "al Qaeda's winter headquarters" have been released.

The nine men are family members of a local cleric, who is wanted by Pakistan for providing "extensive help and protection" to al Qaeda's No. 2 man, Ayman al Zawahiri, intelligence sources tell ABC News. '

our good friends in pakistan, that we give so much money to...that's workin out real well

Posted by: drindl | October 27, 2006 1:55 PM | Report abuse

In the Ohio 15th, whatever comeback Pryce may have is the result of an unending barrage of negative TV ads about her opponent, dating to the opponent's membership on what was, because of other members, a dysfunctional Columbus city school board.

Posted by: TheWizard | October 27, 2006 1:54 PM | Report abuse

I imagine this hurts Bouchard and DeVos in Michigan, Topinka in Illinois, whoever is running against Doyle in Michigan. If a wishy washy Repub like DeWine can't hack it in the Midwest, other midwester Republicans -- who aren't even the incumbent -- are screwed as well.

Granholm, Doyle, Blago -- they'll pull this one out.

Posted by: TGG | October 27, 2006 1:48 PM | Report abuse

'The White House said today that Vice President Dick Cheney was not talking about a torture technique known as "water boarding" when he said dunking terrorism suspects in water during questioning was a "no-brainer." Human rights groups complained that Cheney's comments amounted to an endorsement of water boarding, in which the victim believes he is about to drown.'

Cheney's robust defense of waterboarding is on tape. This is so weird, watching politicians deny the existence of reality. So creepily orwellian...

Posted by: drndl | October 27, 2006 1:45 PM | Report abuse

Dear Stick-a-Fork-in-it-- Don't clebrate yet. Democrats still need to vote, vote, vote! Lord knows I want change. But all this talk of big Dem gains just lowers the bar for Bush and Rove (Bush has leapt through life over lowered bars, and low expectations). Look at 2002 mid-terms, when the GOP only picked up two (2) Senate seats and eight (8) House seats, but Bush looked like a hero because the "expectation" was that the Dems and GOP would come out of the mid-terms "about even". So when the GOP picked up seats, Bush looked like a hero and used the mid-terms to buttress his plan to invade Iraq. In 2006, I fully expect Bush and the GOP to do very well. Isn't it only natural to expect a President to do well? And, can you really expect Rep. Pelosi of San Francisco to upstage Bush's testosterone? Indeed! C'mon---Bush and the GOP will do very well, and pick up a couple of seats in both the House and Senate. Period. That's expected. If, perchance, Pelosi does defeat Bush on Nov. 7, Roveism will be dead and Bush, Rove, and Rush Limbaugh will be slain at the hands of a meek Catholic girl from California---Bush will be a pansy. A pure pansy.

Posted by: Dirk | October 27, 2006 1:41 PM | Report abuse

All these scenarios and observations assume honest elections. This is a very large and unwarranted assumption. We know that Republicans are exerting great energy to block likely Democratic supporters from being able to vote at all. More troubling, because harder to see, are rigged voting machines. In 2004, the "official" reason for the discrepancy between exit polls and official tallies was that exit polling was done early and Republicans vote late. Huh? Moreover, such discrepancies by and large occurred only in districts with electronic voting machines, and just about always in favor of Republicans. This is not a new story. The same thing happened in mid-term elections in 2002. And this year, when the results come in and we discover "stunning" Republican "upsets" in district after district, all where electronic machines were used, will people finally look around and discover that there is no more democracy in this country?

Posted by: Progressive | October 27, 2006 1:31 PM | Report abuse

Coverr-up underway for the masher Jim Gibbns in Nevada:

'The sheriff, Bill Young, is a political supporter of Gibbons, and Mazzeo has refused to cooperate with an investigation through the Las Vegas metropolitan police department, which Young oversees. She's asked for the county district attorney to probe the matter, but he says he'll only do it if Mazzeo promises to give "110 percent."

It's becoming increasingly clear that Mazzeo's charges are only a sideshow to the main event: what appears to be an orchestrated attempt by the Gibbons campaign to cover up the incident through intimidation and persuasion. In the process, they and the people who appear to have cooperated -- the sheriff and police personnel foremost among the bunch -- seem to have run roughshod over Mazzeo's ability to get a fair investigation, much less a fair hearing of her claims.'

http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/001890.php

Posted by: drndl | October 27, 2006 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Shamansky is using personal funds to make a run in the OH-13. Tiberi is vulnerable. Another OH pickup is possible

Posted by: Cleveland Pol | October 27, 2006 1:24 PM | Report abuse

The DCCC has 2 negative ads up in this market, one hitting Roskam for being in favor of banning books by Laura Ingalls Wilder and Martin Luther King and one for voting with the NRA in favor of guns in schools.

--the difference between repug and dem negative ads is that the dem ads state the candidate's actual positions. Yes this nut would like to ban Little House on the prairie... and guns in schools is just so... umm, insane?

Posted by: drindl | October 27, 2006 1:23 PM | Report abuse

You need to analyze the movement on the 13th in OH. Shamansky is putting his own $ in the race and Rep. Tiberi is now vulnerable as well.

Posted by: Cleveland Pol | October 27, 2006 1:23 PM | Report abuse

As for AZ certainly the Democratic Giffords will beat the Republican Graf in the 8th district -- Graf being so far to the right as to make Bush look like a communist.

As for Peterson v Kyl. I would bet (reluctantly) that Kyl will probably win. He's intrenched and has much of the Phx area behind him, as as Phx goes so goes the state.

What the old time Republicans here do not undeerstand is that as soon as they are no longer able to vote, Arizona will be very Democratic. The Repubs are now beginning to be perceived as zealots, and no body wants unthinking people running their state.

Posted by: Kurt | October 27, 2006 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Chris, Nice article on Ohio. The GOP are circling the wagons big time. This is the death kneel for republicans in the midwest. And I disagree that the most direct impact will be on Dewine. He is done and they knew it, but by leaving Ohio all togethor I think they are saying "there is NO way we can keep the house so we are focusing all our resources on keeping the Senate"

I also just wanted to point out that a new poll in Massachusetts has Senator Kennedy at 41% OVER his opponent. That's more then Santorum will get total.

Posted by: Andy R | October 27, 2006 1:10 PM | Report abuse

As for AZ certainly the Democratic Giffords will beat the Republican Graf in the 8th district -- Graf being so far to the right as to make Bush look like a communist.

As for Peterson v Kyl. I would bet (reluctantly) that Kyl will probably win. He's intrenched and has much of the Phx area behind him, as as Phx goes so goes the state.

What the old time Republicans here do not undeerstand is that as soon as they are no longer able to vote, Arizona will be very Democratic. The Repubs are now beginning to be perceived as zealots, and no body wants unthinking people running their state.

Posted by: Kurt | October 27, 2006 1:10 PM | Report abuse

Shock! The lid has been blown off the sorry charade. The numbers claimed by Republicans in the last election NEVER added up. It was clearly a STOLEN election. My basic knowledge of computers programs informed me how easy machines with no paper trail would enable theft. The weakness, the RISK of exposure, is always the People. This means an AIRTIGHT...not one leaker...operation. It also demands little or no prying eyes. This pack of former&ex-intell/law enforcement/corporate&political operatives fully understands the chain reaction EXPOSURE risks. The mixture of naked greed & ideological pathologies will stop at nothing to take & hold power. The deliberate mismanagement, the promotion of inferior officers, was all of piece before 9/11 & the puzzle comes together more every day.

Posted by: mike turner | October 27, 2006 1:05 PM | Report abuse

I wouldn't call Montana purple even with a Burns loss, just like I wouldn't call Rhode Island purple even if Chafee somehow won.

Posted by: Chris | October 27, 2006 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for paying attention to Ohio. There's a lot of blue in this state, and it may start shining through again on Nov. 7.

The GOP really made a strategic error by having Blackwell as the gubernatorial nominee. It's the result of having the extreme right-wingers control the party and having your primary message be fear - fear of terrorits, fear of gays, fear of anyone different from you. Blackwell may well drag the other GOP candidates down with him. I hope that's what happens.

As the saying goes, what goes around comes around.

Posted by: Chris in Columbus | October 27, 2006 1:01 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone read this blog http://failedcolumnist.blogspot.com or www.failedcolumnist.blogspot.com? Not sure which one works..

I found it very interesting to read!

Oh by the way, Chris I love your columns on the elections. I don't know where you get your information but you never disappoint your politically addicted readers! Thanks for the great coverage!

Posted by: Los Angeles, CA | October 27, 2006 12:56 PM | Report abuse

you are correct Zathras, I stuck a fork in these states 2 weeks ago. Nothing I have seen indicates a change in the undertow that will take the GOP down. I think what we are about to witness is a basica realignmnet that is a counter swing to the inroads the GOP have done in the south. The South was formerly Blue Dog Dems that are now in the GOP column controlled by right wing zealots. The Northeast/Midwest/ and Mountain West were reliably moderate GOP states who are finding a better fit in the Dem party (as long as the liberal left do not steer the party into extremism as the neocons have done to the GOP).

Look at the trends;;;;New York, home to Rockefeller Republicans is solidly DEM. Likewise Specter is the last moderate GOP top offical in PA. NJ is Dem. Michigan is DEm, Ohio is turning DEM after a long dominance by GOP. Even reliably red Indiana is showing signs of cracking. Luger and the current Gov. Daniels are the last of the GOP stalwarts in that state. IL, Mn, Iowa are also DEM.

Then look what is happening in the west. New Mexico, AZ, Montana, and even Nevada are turning purple.

I think the GOP plan has failed. Their basic governemnt style is to run roughshod over the constitution, plunder the nations purse, and lie to the American people. They used propaganda to gain power and will use every dirty trick in an attempt to keep power. The American people are waking up the harsh realities, the conservative movement is being rejected at every level in this election. The pendulum has swung back to the center in the area of public opinion.

Posted by: Stick a Fork In it. | October 27, 2006 12:55 PM | Report abuse

What about Montana? Has the GOP pulled out there, too?

De Wine is now clearly more vulnerable than Burns. I'm fearing there's an outside chance Burns could rally.

Posted by: panurge | October 27, 2006 12:52 PM | Report abuse

The Democrats could get the 15 seats they needs just from 4 states: Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. Everything else is just gravy.

It will be very interesting to see how a Democratic takeover in Ohio now could translate to a Presidential election in 2008.

Posted by: Zathras | October 27, 2006 12:40 PM | Report abuse

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