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Primary Day Prediction Contest

Voters are voting in four states -- Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky and Oregon -- today!

Election days are notoriously slow and news-less -- as opposed to election nights, which are incredibly busy -- so what better way to spend your day than to make your predictions about what's going to happen!

(Don't forget to check out PostPolitics.com all day -- and all night -- for great on-the- ground reporting from all four states.)

Today we are looking for three things:

1. Who will win the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic primary between Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.) and Rep. Joe Sestak?

2. Who will win the Pennsylvania special election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D)?

3. What percentage of the vote will Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) get?

For numbers 1 and 2, we need both your predicted order of finish and the percentages for each candidate. The Fixista closest to the pin on all three questions wins an official Fix t-shirt!

And, while you're in the predicting mood, throw in the storyline that you think is likely to emerge from the primaries (and special election) tonight. We might give away a Fix t-shirt to the most creative predictor.

Polls close in Kentucky at 7 pm eastern time so any predictions offered after that time won't be eligible.

Predict away!

By Chris Cillizza  |  May 18, 2010; 11:15 AM ET
Categories:  House , Senate  | Tags: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Mark Souder to resign after affair
Next: Richard Blumenthal tries to answer Vietnam questions

Comments

PA Headline: For Whom the Liberty Bell Tolls

Senate Primary:
SESTAK 55%
Specter 45% - ♬ ♬ The bell tolls for thee.

PA 12:
BURNS 54%
Critz 46% - ♬ ♬ The bell tolls for thee.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | May 18, 2010 8:10 PM | Report abuse

The apathy and turnout reported in Pa this a.m. is apparently wrong. Chuck Todd just told Chris Matthews that they now expect a very respectable 30+% statewide Pa turnout of 1.3 million voters. The unresolved question is where those votes are coming from since Howard Fineman is claiming a miserable 10% vote in inner city Philly. The accuracy of either of these turnout projections is still unclear.

Posted by: leichtman1 | May 18, 2010 7:47 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate
Spector 50.8%
Sestak 49.2%

PA-12
Burns 52
Critz 48

AR Senate
Lincoln 51.5%

Storyline: Incumbents hold on as anti-incumbent mood fails to dislodge two survivors.

Posted by: JayPen | May 18, 2010 7:12 PM | Report abuse

Primary Predictions

Pennsylvania Senate:
Sestak-53.9
Specter-46.1

Pennsylvania 12:
Burns-54.2
Critz-46.8

Arkansas Senate:
Lincoln-46.3

Posted by: pinwizard39 | May 18, 2010 6:18 PM | Report abuse

Primary Predictions

Pennsylvania Senate:
Sestak-53.9
Spector-46.1

Pennsylvania 12:
Burns-53.2
Critz-47.8

Arkansas Senate:
Lincoln-46.3

Posted by: pinwizard39 | May 18, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Storyline: voters confused and apathetic

Posted by: mark_in_austin | May 18, 2010 6:01 PM | Report abuse

Specter 51-49
Lincoln 51-[Halter]43-[Morrison]6
Critz 52-48

Posted by: mark_in_austin | May 18, 2010 5:57 PM | Report abuse

Why didn't you ask about the Grayson-Paul contest in Kentucky?

Easy win by Paul.

Posted by: win_harrington | May 18, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse
____________________

I think you just answered your own question.

Posted by: Nickj116 | May 18, 2010 5:54 PM | Report abuse

PA--Sestak 53--Specter 47.

PA--Burns 55--Critz--43

Ark==Lincoln 46--Halter--42--Morrison--12.

Storyline--The American people have had it. The depth of the anti-Washington mood is non-comprende by the MSM!!

Posted by: gsmit42 | May 18, 2010 5:54 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen:
Sestak 52.8
Specter 47.2

PA 12
Critz 53
Burns 47

Ark Sen
Lincoln 46

Posted by: RAINBOWUSA | May 18, 2010 5:54 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate
Specter 51%
Sestak 49%

PA 12
Burns 53
Critz 47

Lincoln 54%

Storyline: voters choose experience - is there really an anti-incumbent wave?

Posted by: jbl323 | May 18, 2010 5:53 PM | Report abuse

Sestak 54%
Specter 46%

Critz 51%
Burns 49%

Lincoln - 52%
Halter - 40%
Morrison 8%

Arlen Fades
Critz Shades
Blanche Parades

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | May 18, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Sestak 52.1%
Specter 47.9%

Critz 49%
Burns 51%

unfortunately turnout in Philly appears light
and last minute decided raise concerns about
Specter's age which likely will tilt race
to Sestak.

Posted by: leichtman1 | May 18, 2010 4:46 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen
Specter 51%
Sestak 49%

PA House
Burns 53%
Critz 47%

Lincoln 46%

Posted by: sykesjustin | May 18, 2010 4:19 PM | Report abuse

Sestak: 51.88%
Specter: 48.12%

Critz: 50.83%
Burns: 49.13%

Lincoln: 48.66%

Posted by: PDXOwl | May 18, 2010 4:17 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate:

Sestak: 53.2
Specter: 46.8

PA 16:
Critz: 51.1
Burns: 48.9

Lincoln: 46.5

Posted by: maths887 | May 18, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen - Sestak 51.7%
Benedict Arlen 48.3%

PA(16) - Burns 51.2%
Critz 48.8%

Ark. - RINO Lincoln 49%

Storyline - Rightward swing intensifying!


Posted by: cmwcapstone | May 18, 2010 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Why didn't you ask about the Grayson-Paul contest in Kentucky?

Easy win by Paul.

Posted by: win_harrington | May 18, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

Why didn't you ask about the Grayson-Paul contest in Kentucky?

Easy win by Paul.

Posted by: win_harrington | May 18, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen:
Sestak 52.8
Specter 47.2

PA 12
Critz 53
Burns 47

Ark Sen
Lincoln 46

Posted by: ericheggie | May 18, 2010 3:42 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate
Sestak 50.5%
Specter 49.5%

PA House 12
Critz 51%
Burns 49%

Lincoln 48%

In a day with mixed messages and two parties' establishment candidate loosing, Dems eek ahead.

Posted by: TobyQ | May 18, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen

Sestak- 55
Specter- 44

PA-12

Critz- 54
Burns- 46

Ark-Sen
Lincoln 46%

Posted by: BENDIKC | May 18, 2010 3:34 PM | Report abuse

1) Specter 50%, Sestak 48%
2) Burns 51%, Critz 48%
3) Lincoln 47%

KY - Paul by 7%

Storyline: Not all incumbents are toast...yet.

Posted by: SimonHodges | May 18, 2010 3:28 PM | Report abuse

1. Pennsylvania:
Sestak 52%
Spector 48%

2. Pa. 16
Critz 51%
Burns 49%

3. Lincoln 47%

Posted by: culader | May 18, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse

1. PA Senate Primary - Sestak by a landslide.

Why bother voting for a Republican?

2. PA Murtha House Seat - Dems by a squeaker.

3. D-Ark - sorry, don't know, they've mostly gone crazy down there.

sigh, no t-shirt for me

Posted by: WillSeattle | May 18, 2010 3:21 PM | Report abuse

1. PA Senate Primary
Sestak 53
Specter 47

2. PA Special Election
Critz 54
Burns 46

3. Lincoln - 46%

Storyline - Good night for political prediction markets, bad night for incumbents. Despite a slew of polls that showed the PA senate primary would be a toss up, prediction markets like Intrade indicated for weeks that Sestak would win. In fact, Specter had not traded above 35 since early May.

Posted by: Politickr | May 18, 2010 3:07 PM | Report abuse

1. Penn. US Senate Dem Primary
Sestak- 53%
Specter- 47%

2. Pa. 12 special
Critz: 49.5%
Burns: 48.5%

3. Ark US Senate
Lincoln: 47%
Halter: 38%

Bonus: Paul by 15 in Ken. GOP Sen Primary

Storyline: There's something for every political pundit to hang their hat on after a big Tea Party win, a long term incumbent ousted, a different incumbent hanging tough and yet another tight DCCC special election win.

Posted by: recordsandmaps | May 18, 2010 3:05 PM | Report abuse

1) Sestak 50.6%, Specter 49.2%
2) Burns 52.3%, Critz 47.5%
3) Lincoln 47.2%, Halter 45.4%.

Posted by: ahfdemocrat | May 18, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Blumenthal should GET OUT OF THE RACE immediately.


It is horrible to ASK people to continue to support him.


At LEAST Souder has the HONOR TO RESIGN.

See - about these SCUMBAGS


OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF IF WE GOT RID OF THE SCUMBAGS - INSTEAD EVERYONE TOLERATES THEM.

SO THE SCUMBAGS THINK THEY CAN GET AWAY WITH IT NEXT TIME

THERE IS NO DETERENCE.

GET BLUMENTHAL OUT -


AND SOUDER SHOULD BE GIVEN SOME RESPECT FOR HAVING THE DECENCY TO RESIGN.


BLUMENTHAL DOESN'T HAVE ANY DECENCY.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 18, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

PA-Senate
Spector: 51 percent
Sestak:49 percent

PA 12
Critz: 53 percent
Burns 47 percent

Lincoln: 51 percent

Storyline:
Insurgent campaigns make noise, but fail to produce results.

Posted by: justinerickson | May 18, 2010 2:48 PM | Report abuse

I predict there will be more trouble at the polls from Loony Paul supporters...


LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- State and local officials say backers of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul have been removed by sheriff's deputies from an eastern Kentucky polling place after complaints that they were harassing voters.

Officials say Paul supporters were also asked to leave precincts in another county Tuesday while conducting exit polling.

Secretary of State spokesman Les Fugate said voters complained of harassment and electioneering by Paul supporters in Laurel County and exit polling in Jackson County. Secretary of State Trey Grayson is Paul's primary opponent on the ballot.

Laurel County Clerk Dean Johnson confirmed that deputies were called to remove Paul supporters from a polling place and the incident remains under investigation.

Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2010/05/18/1269543/deputies-called-to-remove-campaign.html#ixzz0oJ95LQ4j

Posted by: drindl | May 18, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

1. Sestak 50
Specter 49

2. Critz 49
Burns 48

3. Lincoln 44%

Storline: Incumbents in danger, but there is a path to winning.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 18, 2010 2:44 PM | Report abuse

My bad, posted twice. Administrators, if you are reading, you have my permission to delete the second one :)

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | May 18, 2010 2:30 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen

Sestak 52%
Specter 48%

PA-12

Burns 53%
Critz 47%

AR-Sen

Lincoln 48.5%

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | May 18, 2010 2:25 PM | Report abuse

1. Pennsylvania US Senate Democratic Primary
Specter 53%
Sestek 47%

2. Pa. 12
Burns: 50.5%
Critz: 47.5%
Agoris: 2%

3. Arkansas US Senate
Lincoln: 53%

Storyline: Big turnout by black Philly voters leads to Snarlin Arlen's survival. Tea Party activists get their 2nd big victory in a row following Bennett's defeat with Paul's victory in Bluegrass State!

If Specter wins tonight, expect to hear him be called by his nickname: Snarlin Arlen.

Posted by: reason5 | May 18, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Sestak 51

Spector 48.5

Burns 51


Crist 49

Blanche 49

Posted by: 37thand0street | May 18, 2010 2:23 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen:
Sestak - 51.5%
Specter - 48.5%

PA 12:
Burns - 53%
Critz - 47%

AR Senate:
Lincoln - 46.5%

Storyline: Incumbent/establishment candidates on endangered species list. Republican and Democrat establishment/incumbent candidates feel the wrath of angry voters.

Posted by: bjammin109 | May 18, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Sestak: 52.5%
Specter: 47.5%

PA-12

Burns: 50.7%
Critz: 49.3%

AR Sen

Lincoln: 47.6%

Posted by: Nickj116 | May 18, 2010 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Sestak: 52.5%
Specter: 47.5%

PA-12

Burns: 50.7%
Critz: 49.3%

AR Sen

Lincoln: 47.6%

Posted by: Nickj116 | May 18, 2010 2:13 PM | Report abuse

This is a first, no off topic rants

spec 51
ses 48

crit 46
Burns 53

Lincoln hits the magic 50

Storyline: confusing mishmash with no clear storyline, voters are bipolar. Pundit try to create mean out of sound and fury.

Posted by: WOW9 | May 18, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen

Specter 48%
Sestak 52%

PA-12

Burns 53%
Critz 47%

AR-Sen

Lincoln 48%

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | May 18, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen
Sestak 47.5%
Specter 52.7%

PA 16
Burns 52
critz 47

lincoln 43%

Exrra credit

Lincoln43%
Hatler 47%
Morrison 9%

Posted by: bearcox13 | May 18, 2010 1:42 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen:
Sestak = 54.5
Spector - 45.5

PA 12:
Burns = 53.2
Critz = 46.8

Arkansas:
Lincoln = 49.0

Posted by: jmurphy4 | May 18, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Sestak = 51.6%
Specter = 47.8%

Burns = 50.5%
Critz = 49.0%

Lincoln = 47.1%

Storyline: Tonight's results mean good things for Republicans in November ... no, Democrats! ... no, Republicans! Okay, okay, we have no idea what the results mean. How about if we just say, "Gosh, voters sure are angry!"

Posted by: dognabbit | May 18, 2010 1:33 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate

Sestak 50.5%
Specter 49.5%

PA House 12

Critz 51%
Burns 49%

Lincoln 46%
Halter 50%
Morrison 4%

Listen to the fundits not the pundits because no one knows anything until November.

Posted by: alandbrewer | May 18, 2010 1:31 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate

Sestak 50.5%
Specter 49.5%

PA House 12

Critz 51%
Burns 49%

Lincoln 46%
Halter 50%
Morrison 4%

Posted by: alandbrewer | May 18, 2010 1:30 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate

Sestak 50.5%
Specter 49%

PA House 12

Critz 51.5%
Burns 48.5%

AK-Senate

Blanche "What were you smokin?" Lincoln 48%
Halter 49%
Morrison 3%

Story line: Best to listen to the fundits not to the pundits because no one really knows anything until November!

Posted by: alandbrewer | May 18, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

PA Senate:
Sestak - 56
Specter - 43

PA - 16:
Critz - 50
Burns - 49

Arkansas Senate:
Lincoln - 47%

Storyline: Rand Paul's convincing win leads to speculation that he will take up his father's torch and run for president in 2012.

Posted by: tgraff1 | May 18, 2010 1:13 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen:
Arlen Specter - 51%
Joe Sestak - 49%

PA-16:
Tim Burns - 52%
Mark Critz - 48%

Blanche Lincoln - 50%

Headline: "Dem Incumbents Limp Past Finish Line, Tea Party Triumphs in Bluegrass State"

Posted by: andyroo312 | May 18, 2010 1:11 PM | Report abuse

Pennsylvania Senate:
1. Sestak: 53.3%
2. Specter: 46.7%

Pennsylvania 12th:
1. Critz: 51.2%
2. Burns: 48.8%


Lincoln: 52.6%

Posted by: griffbine | May 18, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Predictions:

PA Senate:
Sestak 50.3%
Specter 49.4%

PA Special Election:
Burns 51.8%
Critz 48.2%

AR Senate:
Lincoln 48.2%
Halter 44.4%
Morrison 7.4%

Posted by: dkgeroe | May 18, 2010 1:01 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen:
Sestak 52%
Specter 48%

PA-12:
Burns 53%
Critz 46%

AR-Sen:
Lincoln 47%

Posted by: lrbrink90 | May 18, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

PA-SEN
Sestak 54.2
Specter 45.8

PA-12
Burns 53.1
Critz 46.9

Lincoln Percentage
49.3%

Posted by: jeffchoudhry | May 18, 2010 12:55 PM | Report abuse

Specter 47%
Sestak 53%

Critz 55%
Burns 44%

Lincoln 46.3%

Posted by: brain615 | May 18, 2010 12:51 PM | Report abuse

Um, guys? It's PA-12, not PA-16.

But keep making those intelligent guesses!

Posted by: Nickj116 | May 18, 2010 12:50 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen
Specter 50%
Sestak 49%

PA-12
Critz 53%
Burns 45%

Arkansas
Lincoln 48.6%

Storyline: Mixed results in early primaries

Posted by: ccrainato | May 18, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

"On Fox News, no matter what the outcome, the storyline will be that Obama's socialist agenda is leading a backlash that will sweep Democrats from office in November."

How is that different from what you see here everyday?

Posted by: drindl | May 18, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

PA
Sestak 53.5
Specter 46.5

PA-16
Critz 51.2
Burns 48.8

Lincoln gets 47% of the vote in AR.

Since Paul and Mongiardo will also win in KY, the storyline will be
Establishment: BEWARE!

Posted by: erikpdumont | May 18, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

PA - Sen
Sestak 55%
Specter 44%

PA - 16
Burns 54
Critz 46

Lincoln 43%

Extra Credit:
"Democratic primary voters just as mad at incumbents as Republicans. . . but Republican outnumber them in turnout, even with fewer competitive contests."

Posted by: Exile_in_Philly | May 18, 2010 12:43 PM | Report abuse

Specter 51
Sestak 49

Burns 53
Critz 47

Lincoln 47

Posted by: amoryblaine | May 18, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

PA-Sen (D)
Sestak: 53%
Specter: 45%

PA-12
Burns: 54%
Critz: 46%

AR-Sen (D)
Lincoln: 55%
Halter: 42%
Morrison: 3%

Storyline Prediction: "Incumbency radioactive."

Posted by: shdulik | May 18, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen
Sestak 58%
Specter 42%

PA 12
Burns 49%
Critz 51%

AR Sen
Halter 41%
Lincoln 51%

On Fox News, no matter what the outcome, the storyline will be that Obama's socialist agenda is leading a backlash that will sweep Democrats from office in November.

Posted by: psychodrew | May 18, 2010 12:39 PM | Report abuse

PA Primary
Sestak-54%
Specter-46%

PA Special
Critz-59%
Burns-41%

Arkansas
Lincoln-53%
Halter-45%
Morrison-2%

Headline: Has the anti-incumbent fever peaked?

Posted by: AndyR3 | May 18, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Sestak- 53%
Specter- 45%

Critz- 50%
Burns- 49%

Lincoln- 48.5%

Posted by: dbroton01 | May 18, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

PA Sen
Sestak 50.7
Specter 49
Sestak surprises in the Philly area

PA 12
Critz 51
Burns 49
Tales of Dems demise, greatly exaggerated

Posted by: hoss516 | May 18, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

Sestak 55
Specter 45

both parties hate opportunist/career politicians

Burns 49.5%
Crits 50.5%

Anyone who claims to know what will happen is lying

Lincoln 49%
Halter 45%

Ark Dems prolong the agony with a runoff for the right to be the sacrificial lamb in November to Rep. Boozeman

Rand Paul 54%
Trey Greyson 45%

Establishment isn't what is was cracked up to be

Mongiardo 51%
Conway 49%

Posted by: TexasProud1 | May 18, 2010 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Sestak - 52%
Specter 48%

Critz - 51%
Burns - 49%

Lincoln - 53%

Storyline - bad day for Democrats as one of their incumbents is knocked off, an unelectable incumbent stays on, and Dems barely eke out a win in PA16. Charlie Cook projects the Republicans to take 392 seats in the House and 71 seats in the Senate.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 18, 2010 12:16 PM | Report abuse

PA
Sestak 54%
Specter 46%

PA
Burns 51.5%
Critz 48.5%

Lincoln 46%

Posted by: Tony163 | May 18, 2010 12:11 PM | Report abuse

You didn't ask, but I think Greyson will beat Paul. That business about having to be registered as a Republican by 12/31/2009 in order to vote in this primary favors the Party's Man.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | May 18, 2010 12:07 PM | Report abuse

Specter 52
Sestak 48

Critz 56
Burns 43

Linoln 53%

Story Line: Republicans are angry at incumbents. Democrats? not so much.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | May 18, 2010 12:04 PM | Report abuse

What happened to the KY Senate primary? If it's not in the contest, why does when the polls close in KY matter?

These and other questions will be answered on the next episode of Soap.

Posted by: JakeD3 | May 18, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

Primary Prediction

PA Senate
Sestak 55
Specter 45

PA House 16
Critz 52
Burns 48

Arkansas Senate
Lincoln 44

Rand Paul 55
Halter wins runoff

Posted by: dganderson13 | May 18, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

Extra credit -- I also predict Rand Paul will win, people will start realzing what a true wack job he is, and vote for Democratic state AG Jack Conway, the best possible outcome.

Posted by: drindl | May 18, 2010 11:40 AM | Report abuse

"Polls close in Kentucky at 7 pm eastern time so any predictions offered after that time won't be eligible."

Dumb question: why does the poll closing time in KY matter, when the contest is about PA, PA & AR? No Paul/Grayson question was included!

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 18, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

PA - Sen
Sestak 50%
Specter 49%

PA - 16
Critz 52
Burns 48

Lincoln 48%

Posted by: drindl | May 18, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

PA - Sen
Sestak 51.5%
Specter 48%

PA - 16
Burns 54
Critz 45

Lincoln 45%

Extra Credit:
Lincoln 45%
Halter 42%
Morrison 10%

Posted by: kiernanje | May 18, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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